Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/29/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
909 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR ACRS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN BERKSHIRES.
AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODEL COMP REFLECTIVITY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FLOW
MOVES BACK TO THE WEST AND BAND LOSES ITS LAKE CONNECTION.
THIS ALSO MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.
FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.
WINDS WILL BE WEST 3 TO 9 KTS. THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
610 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VERMONT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING.
THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.
LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.
FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.
WINDS WILL BE WEST 3 TO 9 KTS. THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...
H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.
THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
AMOUNT DATE YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25 1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15 1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23 1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18 1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27 2014
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1255 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...
H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.
THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
AMOUNT DATE YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25 1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15 1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23 1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18 1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27 2014
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE
TO LIKELY. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER UPDATES TO SEE IF WE NEED HIGHER
POPS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.
PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.
PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.
PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS NOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PASSING OUR
LONGITUDE PUSHING THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER TO OUR
EAST WITH TIME. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THIS
IMPULSE WILL PROPEL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
AND FL PENINSULA TODAY.
WE SAW AN INCREDIBLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.8"...TO THE
27/00Z SOUNDING WHERE THE PW VALUE HAD DROPPED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
0.17". HUGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 40C WERE SAMPLED FROM
ALMOST THE SURFACE UP TO NEARLY 300MB. THIS 0.17" PW VALUE IS NEAR
(WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AN ALL TIME LOW FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. IN FACT...IT IS A RARE OCCASION THAT WE SEE PW VALUES
LOWER THAN THIS AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF
THIS EARLY AM ARE SOME VERY THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
DISCUSSION WAS PASSING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON ITS WAY TOWARD
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVER
THESE COOLER NATURE COAST ZONES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE COMING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAKES A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND A QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. THOSE WITH PLANS NEAR THE BEACH
SHOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HOISTED AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE BEACHES OF PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SEASONABLE WITH 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPING GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET.
TONIGHT...
A CHILLY NIGHT SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND AT LEAST SOME WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FOR EVEN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
TONIGHT...BUT RATHER WILL BE LOOKING AT AN ADVECTION/DRAINAGE EVENT
FROM THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MOS IS BIASED TOO COLD FOR
ADVECTION NIGHT...AND KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MOS ENSEMBLES
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 32 OVER INLAND LEVY COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS UNDER
NORTHEAST FLOW SUCH AS PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE SANIBEL REGION WILL
STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. IF THINGS WORK OUT THIS WAY THEN
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...HOWEVER IT IS A CLOSE CALL
UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S ARE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE EVEN BORDERLINE FOR FROST WITH A LIGHT WIND
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5 DEGREES LATE AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW MORE SHELTERED AREA COULD STILL REALIZE A TOUCH OF FROST TOWARD
DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE
COAST.
FRIDAY..
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FURTHER FLATTEN OUT OVERHEAD. FRIDAY
IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BY MID AFTERNOON TO AROUND 60 FOR CHIEFLAND...LOWER 60S
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A BIT LESS WIND
TO HELP THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE FEEL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S ROCKIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WITH TIME THE CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MEXICAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EAST. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRUNG OUT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK THE PLAINS HIGH MOVES EAST...BRIDGING THE BY NOW
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REINFORCING THE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC.
THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH A
DRY AIRMASS KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUAL
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ALL BELOW 27 WHICH WILL KEEP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING ACHIEVED BOTH DAYS.
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 42 63 47 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 72 44 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 68 40 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 70 43 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 66 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 48 62 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.EVENING UPDATE...
820 PM CST
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING SLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO BE ON A SLOW UPWARD
TREND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FOR GENERALLY THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAD A LITTLE SNOW COVER. HOWEVER...
FEEL THAT ANY PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
DENSE...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. ANY FOG
FORMATION WOULD ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUD
CURRENTLY STREAMING OVER THE AREA CAN CLEAR OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT
LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL COOLING DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KREIN
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT
RESULTED IN ALL THE COLD AIR THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS RAPIDLY BEING
REPLACED BY ZONAL MID AND UPPER FLOW. A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BY DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. IN
ADDITION...A SFC WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IS ALSO BEGINNING THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A
TIME. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT QPF EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
FAR NORTH...WHICH IF ANY COULD REACH THE GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR PELLETS DUE TO WET BULB PROCESSES. THINK
THE FOCUS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SO HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
POPS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE
STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND OVER
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND RAP. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WHICH DESPITE STEADY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...COULD SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER STILL SNOW
COVERED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.
THE SNOW COVER/CLOUD COVER ISSUE COMES TO A HEAD ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS LOW
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...MANY
MODELS INSIST ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL SATURATION. WITH
A +12 TO +15C AIR MASS AT 850 MB MOVING INTO THE AREA...SUSPECT THAT
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS BIASED FAR TOO COLD TOMORROW. IT SEEMS THAT
THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH TYPICALLY DO BETTER
IN COOL SEASON WARM-UPS...HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON LIKELY LACK
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S AREA WIDE...EXCEPT
FOR NEAR 50 ALONG IMMEDIATE WI BORDER WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH
WERE REPORTED TODAY. HAVE CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED SKY COVER
PERCENTAGE AS WELL...AS OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...IT APPEARS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN COULD BE IN STORE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A VERY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A ANOTHER WARM SUNDAY
FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC FRONT
SURGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF EXPANSIVE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS KEY AND NOW THINK IT
WILL BE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AM/MID DAY...CAPPING HIGHS
NEAR 40/LOW 40S THERE. FAR SOUTHERN CWA COULD CONCEIVABLY APPROACH
60 DEGREES GIVEN MORE TIME TO WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER
FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LOW/MID F-GEN DUE TO QUICKLY TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT`D RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
249 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SPILL SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER TROUGH BRIEFLY DIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHEAST. AIR MASS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE
LAKE...BUT LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION RESULTING
IN A WELL BELOW NORMAL START TO METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE IN 20S CWA WIDE/IF NOT COLDER IN FAR NORTH...FOLLOWED BY
A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS 1040 MB+ HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TURN ZONAL AGAIN BUT COLD AIR REMAINING JUST TO
NORTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.
BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME WITH ECMWF AND
GFS/GEFS...AS ECMWF KEEPS DRY/COOL HIGH LOCKED IN TIL THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE GFS BREAKS OUT PRECIP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW GUIDANCE BLEND
POPS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WX
WEDS-THURSDAY...THOUGH A MILD PERIOD DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
* LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
GUSTY ON SATURDAY.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WARM AND MOIST AIR IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WARM FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES TO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THIS IS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS. DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS WARM FRONT NOT RUSHING NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION OF MVFR CIGS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME GRADUAL LOWERING IN THESE CIGS THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY INCH THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD BY LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE. INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE HELPED
ALREADY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT HAZE AND DO THINK MVFR FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SOME IFR
POTENTIAL...THOUGH MAINLY ONLY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES.
MORE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
LATER TONIGHT AND EXPAND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT.
MODEL DEPICTED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VS ACARS OBSERVED MOISTURE OVER
THIS REGION INDICATE THE MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS
TO QUESTIONS ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND FAR NORTH STRATUS WILL REACH ON
SATURDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS
REMAINING OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALTHOUGH SOME IS PROBABLE
DOWNSTATE AND INTO INDIANA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS NO WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN VISIBILITY FORECAST TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM THAT ANY IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL STAY SOUTH OF ORD AND MDW
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
* HIGH IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND MEDIUM IN GUSTS ON
SATURDAY...AS THAT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EAST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
123 PM CST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS LOW WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS A STOUT 30.71+ INCH HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 30 KT WINDS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS SPILLS OVER THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND
MONDAY EVENING...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...AS
THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER
DECENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE OR NEAR GALE FORCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
844 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
A Warm frontal boundary has pushed north of the central Illinois
forecast area with central Illinois now in a region of relatively
mild temperatures in the 30s and steady south winds around 10-15
mph. With still milder temperatures to the south, not expecting
temperatures to drop much overnight. Forecast soundings indicate
saturated conditions below 3000 feet elevation below a deep
temperature inversion, so hazy conditions and patchy fog remain a
possibility mainly Galesburg to Robinson southward where snowmelt
has been most pronounced. Current forecast package is on track
with these features and no significant updates are planned this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Southerly winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, as
35-40 knot winds around 3000 feet (per radar wind profile) get mixed
down to the surface. This has helped erode much of the snow cover,
with visible satellite imagery showing much of the remaining snow in
areas from Rushville to Jacksonville southeast to Effingham.
Temperatures have reached the upper 30s over most of the forecast
area with some 40s across the far southwest as the snow disappears.
Mid and high clouds continue to stream southeast along the warm
frontal boundary, which was stretching from northwest Iowa across
northern Illinois and central Indiana. Will continue to see periods
of clouds through the night over our area. Despite winds staying up
during the night, have added some patchy fog to the forecast for
tonight due to the snow melt, as forecast soundings are showing a
good inversion around 2000 feet to trap the moisture in place.
Temperatures expected to fall only modestly this evening and then
level off most of the night, as south-southwest low level jet around
925 mb starts to ramp up. Consequently, lows should remain above
freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Saturday will see another round of gusty south winds bringing warmer
air into the region. 850mb temps are projected to climb into the
12-14C range, which would support highs well into the 50s in dry
mixing conditions. The increasing moisture could lead to increasing
cloudiness, which would temper how warm the surface temps would
climb. The better chances of enhanced lift in the strong waa flows
looks to be in the southeastern half of our forecast area, where
warm frontogenesis will be a bit more focused. With added lift in
that area, will increase cloud cover in the SE areas, with less
clouds NW toward GBG. SE areas may even see a few sprinkles at
times, which the NAM and GFS are suggesting with their output of QPF
on Saturday. Did not introduce any precip with this update, but did
bump up highs a couple degrees above guidance in most areas, with
less increase in the cloudier ESE areas. Highs should reach the mid
50 in most areas, with upper 50s in areas with less clouds.
A strong cold front still looks on track for Sunday, with decent
agreement among the models on frontal passage Sunday afternoon. The
increasing SW low level jet ahead of the front across SE IL will aid
the lift in the pre-frontal circulation, triggering scattered
showers mainly east of I-55, especially in the afternoon. High temps
will likely occur before Noon in the NW half of the area, with
strong NW winds behind the front bringing a sharp cool down the
remainder of the day. Mid-day highs will range from the upper 40s
near GBG to the low-mid 60s near LWV. The 1040mb Canadian high will
blast into IL through Sunday night, pushing temps below freezing by
Monday morning. There is some question to if the precipitation will
continue fall after the temps fall below freezing. With a lack of
ice crystals above the shallow surface moisture, any continued
precipitation would most likely reach the ground as freezing
rain/drizzle instead of snow. That could cause some problems for the
morning commute on Monday, mainly along and just south of the I-70
corridor.
The continued surge of cold air on Monday will keep highs mainly in
the 20s, with some low 30s S of I-70. Some light freezing rain or
rain will be possible Monday morning S of I-70, with diminishing
chances in the afternoon as the front sags away to the SE.
The cold surface high will slide east across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday, allowing a quick return of southerly winds by Tuesday
afternoon. The warming winds should combine with plenty of sunshine
to help most areas climb above freezing. Wednesday could see
increasing mid and high clouds, but highs are still forecast to
reach the upper 30s north of Peoria and low to mid 40s south.
Differences remain the extended forecast for Wed night through
Friday, but not as dramatic as the last few days.
The GFS continues to develop low pressure in the south central
Plains and moving the low across IL in the Wed-Thur time frame.
However, now the ECMWF is showing a shortwave in the general
vicinity, triggering showers about 18-24 hours after the GFS. The
Canadian GEM is also indicating that shortwave in line with the
ECMWF timing. We have not altered the precip forecast much, with
slight chances Wed night in the west, and chance PoPs in most areas
Thur and Thur night. Slight chances were held into Friday SE of the
IL river. Based on temp profiles, we went with snow chances at night
and rain during the day for now, but this will need refining future
model runs arrive.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Mainly VFR conditions expected for the 24 hour TAF forecast
period. Main aviation forecast issues include possibility of fog
developing overnight due to pronounced low level moisture and
melting snow, mainly affecting KSPI, and low level wind shear
overnight throughout central IL. For fog, HRRR model indicating
widespread 6SM vsby which looks reasonable given steady winds
expected overnight. Could be areas MVFR vsby, but generally should
be in VFR category. Have included MVFR cigs at KSPI where snow
melt has been most pronounced. LLWS starting around 06Z is due to
40 kt SW jet at 2 kft AGL providing speed and directional shear
from S sfc winds. With wind profile becoming more unidirectional
during daytime hours, ended LLWS at 12-13Z. Sfc winds generally
S10-15 kts. Gusts 20-25 kts during afternoon hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
531 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...
300 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT
RESULTED IN ALL THE COLD AIR THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS RAPIDLY BEING
REPLACED BY ZONAL MID AND UPPER FLOW. A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BY DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. IN
ADDITION...A SFC WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IS ALSO BEGINNING THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A
TIME. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT QPF EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
FAR NORTH...WHICH IF ANY COULD REACH THE GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR PELLETS DUE TO WET BULB PROCESSES. THINK
THE FOCUS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SO HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
POPS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE
STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND OVER
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND RAP. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WHICH DESPITE STEADY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...COULD SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER STILL SNOW
COVERED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.
THE SNOW COVER/CLOUD COVER ISSUE COMES TO A HEAD ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS LOW
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...MANY
MODELS INSIST ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL SATURATION. WITH
A +12 TO +15C AIR MASS AT 850 MB MOVING INTO THE AREA...SUSPECT THAT
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS BIASED FAR TOO COLD TOMORROW. IT SEEMS THAT
THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH TYPICALLY DO BETTER
IN COOL SEASON WARM-UPS...HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON LIKELY LACK
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S AREA WIDE...EXCEPT
FOR NEAR 50 ALONG IMMEDIATE WI BORDER WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH
WERE REPORTED TODAY. HAVE CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED SKY COVER
PERCENTAGE AS WELL...AS OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...IT APPEARS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN COULD BE IN STORE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A VERY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A ANOTHER WARM SUNDAY
FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC FRONT
SURGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF EXPANSIVE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS KEY AND NOW THINK IT
WILL BE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AM/MID DAY...CAPPING HIGHS
NEAR 40/LOW 40S THERE. FAR SOUTHERN CWA COULD CONCEIVABLY APPROACH
60 DEGREES GIVEN MORE TIME TO WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER
FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LOW/MID F-GEN DUE TO QUICKLY TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT`D RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
249 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SPILL SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER TROUGH BRIEFLY DIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHEAST. AIR MASS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE
LAKE...BUT LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION RESULTING
IN A WELL BELOW NORMAL START TO METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE IN 20S CWA WIDE/IF NOT COLDER IN FAR NORTH...FOLLOWED BY
A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS 1040 MB+ HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TURN ZONAL AGAIN BUT COLD AIR REMAINING JUST TO
NORTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.
BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME WITH ECMWF AND
GFS/GEFS...AS ECMWF KEEPS DRY/COOL HIGH LOCKED IN TIL THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE GFS BREAKS OUT PRECIP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW GUIDANCE BLEND
POPS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WX
WEDS-THURSDAY...THOUGH A MILD PERIOD DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
GUSTY ON SATURDAY.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WARM AND MOIST AIR IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WARM FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES TO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THIS IS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS. DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS WARM FRONT NOT RUSHING NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION OF MVFR CIGS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME GRADUAL LOWERING IN THESE CIGS THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY INCH THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD BY LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE. INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE HELPED
ALREADY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT HAZE AND DO THINK MVFR FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SOME IFR
POTENTIAL...THOUGH MAINLY ONLY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES.
MORE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
LATER TONIGHT AND EXPAND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT.
MODEL DEPICTED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VS ACARS OBSERVED MOISTURE OVER
THIS REGION INDICATE THE MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS
TO QUESTIONS ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND FAR NORTH STRATUS WILL REACH ON
SATURDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS
REMAINING OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALTHOUGH SOME IS PROBABLE
DOWNSTATE AND INTO INDIANA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS NO WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH IN CIGS REMAINING MAINLY 1500-2000 FT THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
IN DURATION OF CIGS.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY FORECAST TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM THAT ANY IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL STAY SOUTH OF ORD AND MDW
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
* HIGH IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND MEDIUM IN GUSTS ON
SATURDAY...AS THAT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EAST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
123 PM CST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS LOW WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS A STOUT 30.71+ INCH HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 30 KT WINDS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS SPILLS OVER THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND
MONDAY EVENING...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...AS
THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER
DECENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE OR NEAR GALE FORCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
507 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Southerly winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, as
35-40 knot winds around 3000 feet (per radar wind profile) get mixed
down to the surface. This has helped erode much of the snow cover,
with visible satellite imagery showing much of the remaining snow in
areas from Rushville to Jacksonville southeast to Effingham.
Temperatures have reached the upper 30s over most of the forecast
area with some 40s across the far southwest as the snow disappears.
Mid and high clouds continue to stream southeast along the warm
frontal boundary, which was stretching from northwest Iowa across
northern Illinois and central Indiana. Will continue to see periods
of clouds through the night over our area. Despite winds staying up
during the night, have added some patchy fog to the forecast for
tonight due to the snow melt, as forecast soundings are showing a
good inversion around 2000 feet to trap the moisture in place.
Temperatures expected to fall only modestly this evening and then
level off most of the night, as south-southwest low level jet around
925 mb starts to ramp up. Consequently, lows should remain above
freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Saturday will see another round of gusty south winds bringing warmer
air into the region. 850mb temps are projected to climb into the
12-14C range, which would support highs well into the 50s in dry
mixing conditions. The increasing moisture could lead to increasing
cloudiness, which would temper how warm the surface temps would
climb. The better chances of enhanced lift in the strong waa flows
looks to be in the southeastern half of our forecast area, where
warm frontogenesis will be a bit more focused. With added lift in
that area, will increase cloud cover in the SE areas, with less
clouds NW toward GBG. SE areas may even see a few sprinkles at
times, which the NAM and GFS are suggesting with their output of QPF
on Saturday. Did not introduce any precip with this update, but did
bump up highs a couple degrees above guidance in most areas, with
less increase in the cloudier ESE areas. Highs should reach the mid
50 in most areas, with upper 50s in areas with less clouds.
A strong cold front still looks on track for Sunday, with decent
agreement among the models on frontal passage Sunday afternoon. The
increasing SW low level jet ahead of the front across SE IL will aid
the lift in the pre-frontal circulation, triggering scattered
showers mainly east of I-55, especially in the afternoon. High temps
will likely occur before Noon in the NW half of the area, with
strong NW winds behind the front bringing a sharp cool down the
remainder of the day. Mid-day highs will range from the upper 40s
near GBG to the low-mid 60s near LWV. The 1040mb Canadian high will
blast into IL through Sunday night, pushing temps below freezing by
Monday morning. There is some question to if the precipitation will
continue fall after the temps fall below freezing. With a lack of
ice crystals above the shallow surface moisture, any continued
precipitation would most likely reach the ground as freezing
rain/drizzle instead of snow. That could cause some problems for the
morning commute on Monday, mainly along and just south of the I-70
corridor.
The continued surge of cold air on Monday will keep highs mainly in
the 20s, with some low 30s S of I-70. Some light freezing rain or
rain will be possible Monday morning S of I-70, with diminishing
chances in the afternoon as the front sags away to the SE.
The cold surface high will slide east across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday, allowing a quick return of southerly winds by Tuesday
afternoon. The warming winds should combine with plenty of sunshine
to help most areas climb above freezing. Wednesday could see
increasing mid and high clouds, but highs are still forecast to
reach the upper 30s north of Peoria and low to mid 40s south.
Differences remain the extended forecast for Wed night through
Friday, but not as dramatic as the last few days.
The GFS continues to develop low pressure in the south central
Plains and moving the low across IL in the Wed-Thur time frame.
However, now the ECMWF is showing a shortwave in the general
vicinity, triggering showers about 18-24 hours after the GFS. The
Canadian GEM is also indicating that shortwave in line with the
ECMWF timing. We have not altered the precip forecast much, with
slight chances Wed night in the west, and chance PoPs in most areas
Thur and Thur night. Slight chances were held into Friday SE of the
IL river. Based on temp profiles, we went with snow chances at night
and rain during the day for now, but this will need refining future
model runs arrive.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Mainly VFR conditions expected for the 24 hour TAF forecast
period. Main aviation forecast issues include possibility of fog
developing overnight due to pronounced low level moisture and
melting snow, mainly affecting KSPI, and low level wind shear
overnight throughout central IL. For fog, HRRR model indicating
widespread 6SM vsby which looks reasonable given steady winds
expected overnight. Could be areas MVFR vsby, but generally should
be in VFR category. Have included MVFR cigs at KSPI where snow
melt has been most pronounced. LLWS starting around 06Z is due to
40 kt SW jet at 2 kft AGL providing speed and directional shear
from S sfc winds. With wind profile becoming more unidirectional
during daytime hours, ended LLWS at 12-13Z. Sfc winds generally
S10-15 kts. Gusts 20-25 kts during afternoon hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1208 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...
337 AM CST
THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOSE DREAMING OF A WHITE THANKSGIVING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE ALONG THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN SHORES
TODAY...ALTHOUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
STATIONS REPORTING PERSISTENT FLURRIES BUT NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
ILLINOIS SIDE AS WELL. AFTERNOON HIGHS LIKELY WILL TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR CHRISTMAS THAN
LATE NOVEMBER...SO EVEN IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SNOW IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE A COLD THANKSGIVING.
PERHAPS THE MOST WELCOME NEWS COMES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY CLIMB BACK INTO NORMAL RANGES...AND
LIKELY WELL ABOVE. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH
IS WHAT WILL BE KEEPING THE LID ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT WINDS
TURN SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND START TO PUSH THE COLD AIR AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
337 AM CST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WARM ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT COULD BE FLAT TO
SLOWLY RISING. WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS IN EARNEST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS THE NORTHERN LAKES LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON
SUNDAY...A TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS GETTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY...THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE LIKELY BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND RIGHT NOW THERE ONLY APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OR SLIGHT
CHANCE...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND
NAM ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FEATURE...SO BY LEANING TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS WE ALLOW AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANOTHER MILD LATE
NOVEMBER DAY BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT NEXT WEEK AND A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...THE SHARP POST FRONTAL COOLDOWN LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP ABOVE
FREEZING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS THIS
WEEKEND AND MAYBE NOT EVEN QUITE UP TO TYPICAL HIGHS.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIG TRENDS INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THAT...STILL EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. REGARDING THE PERIOD
OF SNOW...MAIN QUESTION IS IF SATURATION OCCURS WHILE GOOD FORCING
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF IT
DOES...LOOKING AT A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF SNOW TO TRACK WEST TO
EAST...WITH GYY POSSIBLY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
A 3-4 HR PROB 30 IN THE TAFS...BUT SNOW IS ONLY FAVORED TO LAST
1-2 HOURS AT MOST UPON ONSET...WITH UNDER 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
SHOULD THE ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW MATERIALIZE...THEN IFR TO LOWER
MVFR VSBY WOULD BE LIKELY.
AFTER ANY SNOW ENDS...CONCERN SHIFTS TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
(160-180 DEG) DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOW 20KT
RANGE AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER IF MIXING IS A BIT DEEPER. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN SHORT PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OCCURRING EARLY
FRIDAY...MEDIUM IN TIMING.
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
424 AM CST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS
THIS IS OCCURRING...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING UP TO
30 KT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH ALL AREAS
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OBSERVING NORTHWEST 30 KT WINDS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE BRIEF...OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
STILL APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION IN THE OPEN WATERS FORECAST. FOR THE NEARSHORE
TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST LIKELY
OBSERVED IN THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND
SO HAVE STARTED THE SCA FOR INDIANA NOW AND THEN EXTENDED IT
FURTHER INTO TONIGHT...AS HIGHER WAVES WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SPEEDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
LAKE AND NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT LIKELY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBILITY FOR SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE
ENTIRE LAKE. HAVE MADE MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ONCE AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THESE HIGHER SPEEDS IS LOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE PERIODS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE
HIGHER SPEEDS BEING OBSERVED.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
Have updated the forecast to significantly ramp up the PoP`s for
the next few hours from about Decatur northwest to Galesburg. An
area of light snow and flurries has been moving southeast out of
the Quad Cities. While significant accumulation is not
anticipated, the visibilities have been getting down to 1 to 2
miles at times which would imply more than just flurries, and
web cams around Peoria suggest a dusting of accumulation is
occurring in the heavier bands. The snow has been weakening as it
moves southeast through central Illinois, so have kept the
afternoon dry for now. Back edge of the cloud deck is along the
Illinois/Iowa border and slowly moving east, with the RAP guidance
continuing to indicate some gradual clearing from west to east
across our forecast area this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains. Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions. Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today. Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa. Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z. However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing. Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR. As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon. Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day. Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week. High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop. Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line. Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s. Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues. Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dew points increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late. Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness. Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.
Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses. Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder air mass settling
southward early next week. Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder air mass. Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front. With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.
After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific. 00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday. The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday. Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois. With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday. For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
Small area of light snow showers has been reducing visibilities to
1 to 2 miles as it moves southeast. Currently moving through KDEC
and may clip KCMI over the next hour or two, although it will
largely track south of there. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will
prevail into mid afternoon, although an area of clearing is not
too far west of KPIA and will be spreading eastward through the
afternoon. Later on in the forecast period, northwest winds to
turn more southeast overnight, following the passage of an area of
high pressure. Strong low level winds will arrive on Friday
morning and mix down toward the surface, producing some gusts up
to 15-20 knots by mid to late morning. Some higher clouds around
8000 feet or so will move through overnight and exit Friday
morning, as a clipper system passes to our north.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
519 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND H85 WAA IS AIDING TO ADVECT A WARM
FRONT INTO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND TO THE MID AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE SNOW PACK MELTING
WITH THIS WAA. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
IT IS CLEAR THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE NAM OVER DOES THE
CURRENT SNOW COVER. WITH STRONG H85 WAA THE NAM POPS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE GFS HAS SOMETHING
SIMILAR...BUT NOT AS BULLISH. A LOOK AT THE MODEL FIELDS AND
OBSERVATIONS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS NOT A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OR FORCING FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOG DUE TO OVERRUNNING WARM AIR OVER A MELTING SNOW
PACK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 8-10KTS TONIGHT WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WIND WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT
PATCHY TONIGHT . HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THROUGH THE AREA...ALSO INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER A
LARGE AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. DID NOT USE ANY OF THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMP FORECASTS
AS THE NAM KEEPS SNOW PACK AROUND A THUS LOWERS TEMPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE UNDER DOWN AS H85 WAA DROVE TEMPS HIGHER.
THE RUC HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON HIGHS AND TRENDS WITH TEMPS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT BUT WITH AMERICAN MODELS
VERIFYING TOO MOIST OVER BL AND ENOUGH OF GRADIENT PRE-FRONTAL
FOR 5-10+ MPH WINDS AND TYPICALLY NOT FAVORED VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION I HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION ATTIM. DECENT
TEMP GRADIENT BY 12Z SUN WITH 20S FAR NORTHWEST CWA POST-FRONTAL
CONTRAST TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO OCCUR IN THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE EXITING FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA BY MIDDAY. ENSUING COLD
ADVECTION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPS DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL PM
SUNSHINE. SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CLEARING EARLY WITH CANADIAN
HIGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN. LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT COMPLETE BOTTOM OUT
ON LOWS AND WITH LOSS OF SNOW COVER LEANED TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH MAINLY TEENS FOR LOWS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST CWA. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DRY AND CONTINUED COLD WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGS. IF ANY LONGER DURATION OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS THEN LOWS MAY
BE STILL 2-4 DEGS TOO WARM SOME LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW USHERING IN WARMER AIR FOR REBOUND ON TEMPS INTO THE 30S
FOR HIGHS MANY AREAS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUPPORT A LIGHT PCPN
EVENT AS EJECTING ENERGY FROM ROCKIES MEETS UP WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. CHALLENGE THOUGH IS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES AND AS RESULT
INSTEAD OF PLACING HIGHER POPS FOR WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE ONLY 12
HOUR EVENT AT BEST... HAVE PLACED SMALL POPS OVER 24+ HOUR PERIOD
FOCUSING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ATTIM. PCPN TYPE APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY RAIN BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT
WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE MODERATING TO CLOSER
TO NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
AS EARLIER AFD STATES...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FG OR BR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. SNOW MELT COULD
LEAD TO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT BRL. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING LESS THAN MVFR...HOWEVER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIFR FOR A LARGE AREA. BELIEVE THAT GUIDANCE IS
DOING A POOR JOB WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL ONLY GO MVFR AT
BRL AND VFR ELSEWHERE. SINCE NOTHING HAS CHANGED AND THIS IS
ALREADY VERY WELL STATED...IN EARLY AFD ISSUANCE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN/GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1017 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE REGION WAS GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 6-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN ADVERTISED. LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWED A SLOWER TREND FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THINK THE
MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IS A STOUT INVERSION
ERODING MUCH SLOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FORECAST PROJECTED. BASED
ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE INVERSION ERODES VERY
SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND MAY FINALLY BE OVER COME BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO GET SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AND REACH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THEREFORE...LOWERED
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY AND SLOWED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND SIMILAR TO
THAT OF THE HRRR. DRY FORECAST REMAINS WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE
IN THE DAY. LATEST GRIDS SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
UPDATE SENT FOR MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS OFF LATEST SET OF HOURLIES.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS REGION WILL WAIT FOR
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ROCKIES TO FILTER OVER CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MODELS HAVE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF. GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW
SET TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR TODAY THOUGH...SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
WORK THRU THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRING MID/HIGHS CLOUDS TO THE AREA
BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLIMENTED BY A SURFACE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...AIDING TO
PROVIDE A STRONGER WAA UNDER SSW FLOW FRIDAY RIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA...MODEL 850/925 TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +14C TODAY...UP TO +20C BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE CWA WILL
SEE GOOD CHANCE FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS GOING TO SET THE AREA FOR 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT TRENDS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TRI STATE
REGION THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
LATE SUNDAY WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO THE 1000-500MB
MOISTURE AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
A SECOND LESS INTENSE COLD FROM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAST THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH THE SLOWER ONE HAVING
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL OUT TO SEA.
THE FASTER OTHER MODEL HAS MOIST WEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM WHAT THE
INITIAL MODEL BLEND GAVE WHICH HAS LOW PRECIP. CHANCES IN FOR
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ONLY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER IS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
FRONT RANGE. A LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KGLD AND SOUTH WINDS AT KMCK
TODAY. LEE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
WEST AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
911 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE REGION WAS GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 6-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN ADVERTISED. LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWED A SLOWER TREND FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THINK THE
MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IS A STOUT INVERSION
ERODING MUCH SLOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FORECAST PROJECTED. BASED
ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE INVERSION ERODES VERY
SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND MAY FINALLY BE OVER COME BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO GET SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AND REACH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THEREFORE...LOWERED
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY AND SLOWED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND SIMILAR TO
THAT OF THE HRRR. DRY FORECAST REMAINS WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE
IN THE DAY. LATEST GRIDS SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
UPDATE SENT FOR MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS OFF LATEST SET OF HOURLIES.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS REGION WILL WAIT FOR
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ROCKIES TO FILTER OVER CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MODELS HAVE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF. GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW
SET TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR TODAY THOUGH...SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
WORK THRU THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRING MID/HIGHS CLOUDS TO THE AREA
BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLIMENTED BY A SURFACE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...AIDING TO
PROVIDE A STRONGER WAA UNDER SSW FLOW FRIDAY RIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA...MODEL 850/925 TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +14C TODAY...UP TO +20C BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE CWA WILL
SEE GOOD CHANCE FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS GOING TO SET THE AREA FOR 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT TRENDS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TRI STATE
REGION THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
LATE SUNDAY WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO THE 1000-500MB
MOISTURE AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
A SECOND LESS INTENSE COLD FROM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAST THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH THE SLOWER ONE HAVING
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL OUT TO SEA.
THE FASTER OTHER MODEL HAS MOIST WEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM WHAT THE
INITIAL MODEL BLEND GAVE WHICH HAS LOW PRECIP. CHANCES IN FOR
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 429 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ FEW-SCT060-070
SCT150. WINDS SSE 5-10KTS BECM WSW BY 16Z THIS MORNING...THEN MORE
WESTERLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY 5-10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1053 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION VARIED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WSR-88D RADAR DATA HAS NOTED A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION BEST SO HAVE LEANED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LOSES SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. THAT TREND IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED. RAP
SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE ONE MORE PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DESATURATES. ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS UP AND DOWN TREND WITH THE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN FORECAST DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES QUITE DRY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO SHALL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WARM 850 MB TEMPS ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECTING A WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
DAY. ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TOMORROW IS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
PREVENT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO
AND SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY AND POSSIBLY WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. OVERALL...KEPT FORECAST WINDS LIGHT BUT NERVOUS ABOUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. IF WINDS ARE REALIZED...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EAST AND THE LEE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1229 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
FIRST...THE POPS. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SEEMS TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...TONED BACK SOME OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE MORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWED FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ONGOING FORECASTED DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IT SHOWED TEMPS RISING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DROPPING NEAR
DAWN. MEANWHILE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
EITHER REMAINING STEADY OR DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WAS CREATING
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...EVEN WHEN BLENDING IN THE
LATEST NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONS. ENDED UP ADJUSTING THE DIURNAL CURVE
FOR A MORE STEADY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS SUCH...THIS CHANGED THE WEATHER TYPES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY IT ALLOWED FOR BETTER MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES FOR CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...FELT THAT SNOW TOTALS
ULTIMATELY SEEMED REASONABLE AND DID NOT NEED TO BE CHANGED. STILL
EXPECTING BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DAWN WHEN TEMPS ARE THE
COLDEST. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DYING DOWN AND MOVING
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WORK TO QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT HAS
ACCUMULATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEW POINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WET BULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WET BULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
LOZ AND SME ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
JKL AND SJS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z AS AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS OF 3-4K BY 15 OR 16Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.
TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.
TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.
MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.
TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.
TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.
MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TODAY AT TAF SITES. WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N
WIND...IWD WL SEE A LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER...THE LLVL WINDS WL
BACK TOWARD THE WNW EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD. MORE UPSLOPE WRLY WIND
AT CMX BY THIS AFTERNOON MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NW WINDS BACKING TO S-SW
TONIGHT AT KSAW SHOULD CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THERE THRU THE
PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
557 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.
TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.
TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.
MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.
TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.
TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.
MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.
MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.
FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain. Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast. Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air. Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.
Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal. This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north. Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today. Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface. Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present. Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday. Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois. Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest. Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.
Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest. Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF. GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet. ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder. Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
MVFR ceilings should move east of all TAF sites by around 22Z. VFR
cloud deck near 7000 feet then approaches from the west this
evening. Northwest winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon and
become light and variable overnight as surface ridge moves
overhead. Quick return to southeasterly flow on Friday with VFR
conditions expected.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings should clear KSTL TAF site by
around 22Z. An area of VFR ceilings will move in after 00Z. Northwest
winds will diminish this evening. As surface high pressure moves
quickly off to the east, southeast winds will return by around
14Z.
Browning
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 32 25 49 39 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 27 19 44 36 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 32 25 53 41 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 34 25 55 41 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 30 22 45 37 / 5 0 0 5
Farmington 35 23 48 39 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain. Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast. Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air. Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.
Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal. This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north. Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today. Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface. Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present. Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday. Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois. Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest. Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.
Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest. Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF. GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet. ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder. Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
At 1130z, ragged back edge of MVFR cloud deck extends from just
east of KALO, to near KCSQ, to around KFNB, and is working
southeast at about 20kts. This rate of movment suggests erosion of
MVFR cigs at UIN and COU around midday and in the STL metro by
mid afternoon, which dovetails fairly well with RUC 925mb RH
trends. There is a large hole in this MVFR deck is over central
and parts of S IL, but it appears to be working SE so any impacts
of this feature will miss our TAF sites. Once the low clouds clear
VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast
period, with any additional clouds aoa 8kft overnight and into
Friday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Bases of MVFR cigs will slowly increase as we
head through the morning and early afternoon, with this low cloud
deck finally scattering out around 22z. Once the lower deck
erodes, occasional mid level cloudiness (with bases aoa 8kft) can
expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 32 26 50 39 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 24 20 45 36 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 32 25 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 33 26 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 30 23 45 37 / 5 0 0 5
Farmington 35 24 49 39 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain. Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast. Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air. Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.
Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal. This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north. Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today. Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface. Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present. Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday. Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois. Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest. Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.
Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest. Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF. GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet. ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder. Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014
IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 32 26 50 39 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 24 20 45 36 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 32 25 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 33 26 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 30 23 45 37 / 5 0 0 5
Farmington 35 24 49 39 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain. Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast. Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air. Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.
Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal. This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north. Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today. Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface. Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present. Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday. Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014
Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.
Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.
Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.
Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.
Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014
IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 32 26 50 39 / 0 0 0 0
Quincy 24 20 45 36 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 32 25 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
Jefferson City 33 26 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
Salem 30 23 45 37 / 5 0 0 5
Farmington 35 24 49 39 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST. ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.
LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
FLURRIES AND MARGINAL CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE VISUAL RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME UNLIMITED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
726 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME LEFT OVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING
WITH IT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS
THE AIRMASS WARMS WITH TIME. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY WARM SUNDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY FLAT/ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO NY AS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT FIRST
SOME LAKE EFFECT STILL NEEDS TO BE DEALT WITH THIS EVENING.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
KTYX SHOWING CONTINUED MULTIBANDED LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE...WITH SOME ENHANCED FOCUS OVER OSWEGO COUNTY
DUE TO A FULL LAKE FETCH. OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RELATIVELY LOW CAP AT ABOUT 5000FT. SO DESPITE THE ONGOING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT A CONCENTRATED SINGLE PLUME LAKE
BAND FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR OSWEGO
COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS SNOWS CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY ON OSWEGO
COUNTY. AS STEERING FLOW BACKS THIS EVENING THE BANDS WILL WIGGLE
NORTHWARD WITH LAKE EFFECT SHIFTING OUT OF OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
EAST OF LAKE ERIE...
KBUF RADAR SHOWING A WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TRYING TO ORGANIZE IN THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING BUT WITH A LOW CAP IN MIND AND
WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE MUCH OF AN EVENT.
LATEST NAM AND HRRR RUNS SHOW THIS SHOULD LIFT NORTH WITH BACKING
FLOW AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SOME
WEAK HIGH LEVEL ECHOES ARE ALSO PRESENT AS WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING
ALOFT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.
ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH RAIN ON THE BACK
SIDE AS A 1-3 HR WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...PERHAPS BECOMING SCATTERED OR NOT QUITE REACHING AREAS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. QPF SHOULD BE MINOR...WELL UNDER .1 FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT...AND WITH STEADILY TEMPERATURES ANY SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT OR QUICKLY MELTING. OTHERWISE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 30S FOR
ALL BUT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OUR REGION WILL BE PLACED BETWEEN AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY. A
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP FROM THEIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAXIMUM.
THERE WILL REMAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FORCING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR WHICH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
P-TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN
OVERNIGHT TRANSITIONING TO JUST PLAIN LIGHT RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...DRIZZLE OR EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ENSUE. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE MAY LINGER. FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
JUST CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW/RAIN CHANCES IN THE GRIDS AND EVALUATE
AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO SATURDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...THE LOW
SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR BECOMES LESS OF A FACTOR TO AIR
TEMPERATURE...WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
BECOMING THE MAIN DETERMINING FACTOR FOR AIR TEMPERATURE. THUS THE WARMEST
AREAS SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE HILLS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING FROM NEAR
JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR STATE. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW UP LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS SUCH WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. AS COLD AIR RACES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN WILL LINGER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL STILL BE CROSSING OUR REGION. SYNOPTIC SHOWERS OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD END THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TO THE SE OF THE
LAKES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
FLY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. TOO MUCH DRYING
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND A LOW CAPPING INVERSION/BIT OF WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO A MINIMAL THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE CLOUDS BY EVENING TIME SUCH THAT A CLEAR SKY
WITH LITTLE WIND REMAINS FOR THE NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE LAKE CLOUDS MAY LINGERING INTO THE
BETTER PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THINNING. EXPECT A COLD
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A BUBBLE OF -20C
850 HPA AIR WILL BE SKIRTING BY. LOWS TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY COULD PLUMMET INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS HERE. OTHERWISE
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SW QUEBEC
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD SHOULD GIVE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPORT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS WINDS VEER AROUND
TO EASTERLY. THOUGH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE MORNING HOURS WILL STILL
BE QUITE COLD CONSIDERING THE SINGLE DIGIT AND TEEN TEMPERATURES
THAT WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OUR FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TOWARD
SOUTHERLY...A DIRECTION THAT WILL BRING WARMING ALOFT. THERE WILL BE
MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A MOISTENING AIRMASS WILL EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (SNOW/RAIN OR POSSIBLY FREEZING
RAIN) LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE TAIL END OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE MAY
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY TAPERING OFF AS
SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIMITED LAKE
PARAMETERS MAY ALLOW FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW RESPONSE AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT FOR NOW THE SET-UP FOR
SNOWBANDS LOOKS POOR WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW 5K
FEET AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR AND NOT THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS SLIDES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUSHES THE
COLD FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
BOTH MODELS GIVE EVIDENCE THAT AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE RETURN FLOW...WHERE AS THE ECMWF
WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE PATTERN IS SLOWER...WHICH
MAKES SENSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN BOTH DAYS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNFOLDS.
A CLEAR START TO THE DAY TUESDAY WILL START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF
COLD...BEHIND A RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOKS TO AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES WHERE SOME TEMPO MVFR/IFR
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT THE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A 1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOW...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ON
THE BACKSIDE AS THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND TO FALL
APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THUS
EXPECT SOME MVFR...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC -RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH -SHRA/SHSN WITH COLD FRONT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF -RA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TONIGHT AS
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 PM... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT AND THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST OFF TO THE
EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM OVERNIGHT AS LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NEW YORK STATE IN
THE LIGHT NNW FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT THE FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING THAT MAIN
ROADWAYS ARE MOSTLY JUST WET... ALTHOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS... AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS COULD STILL BE SNOW COVERED. FARTHER EAST WILL LET
THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR AWHILE AS ROADS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS
AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").
3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.
ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.
DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.
WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ045-046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PVF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
251 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CENTRAL NC HAVE HAD
A VARIABLY CLOUDY... SOMEWHAT CHILLY... AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY
THANKSGIVING DAY SO FAR... THANKS TO PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS... THE SECOND OF WHICH IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD
INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. MESOANALYSES AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW MINOR
AMOUNTS OF CAPE... DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-
7.5 C/KM... AUGMENTING THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS... ENDING LAST
IN THE NE CWA BY VERY EARLY EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS
TO OUR EAST... A DRYING AND STABILIZING COLUMN WILL ENSUE FROM WEST
TO EAST... YIELDING CLEARING SKIES AREAWIDE DURING THE EARLY-MID
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH RISING HEIGHTS... DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BASED ON LOCAL
RESEARCH USING HISTORIC MIN TEMPS... LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING
TO AROUND 1280 M WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S... HOWEVER WITH
THE MSLP GRADIENT STAYING UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT... WILL STICK WITH
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S... CONSISTENT WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: A QUIET DAY AND NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND STRONGLY SUBSIDING MID LEVELS. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE
DURING THE DAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE DAY... AND THICKNESSES ACCORDINGLY REBOUND CONSIDERABLY
(ALTHOUGH THIS 1000-850 MB LAYER GRABS SOME OF THE WARMER AIR ABOVE
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION). USING A LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE
TO 925 MB INDICATES HIGHS OF 42-46... A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AND IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD EARLY FRI NIGHT BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD
LATE... SO WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE AS MINOR
WAVES TRACK ESE INTO NC WITHIN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ALOFT. STILL
EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...
ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO FIRMLY SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
AND THEN LOW TO MID 60S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY MID/UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MID/UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
WILL SUPPRESS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS IT PROPELS A
SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FORCING IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE PARENT LOW
IS SO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL WARM UP NICELY WITHIN THE DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S (NEAR
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST) EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID/UPPER 50S (COOLEST IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME CAD MAY
DEVELOP).
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THEN PERSISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM (POSSIBLY) APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WILL
THE GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED (WITH ZONAL FLOW ACTUALLY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION). GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...WILL KEEP ANY POPS
LOW...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS CYCLE: LOW CLOUDS AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
NRN NC TODAY HAVE LED TO CONSIDERABLE SUB-VFR CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) SO FAR TODAY. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED A BIT TO MVFR AS THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
PATCHY... AND EVEN IN SHOWERS... VSBYS HAVE HELD MOSTLY VFR. AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON... CIGS WILL
STEADILY IMPROVE TO VFR... FIRST AT INT (WHERE THE MVFR CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED) AND GSO BY 21Z... AND ACROSS
TO RDU/RWI BY 00Z-01Z. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT
8-12 KTS HAVE HAD INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS... AND THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS. CLEARING THIS EVENING
WILL YIELD UNLIMITED CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES AFTER 03Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRI... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MON... ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUN MORNING AND EARLY MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT... THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT/SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MON OR MON
NIGHT... BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE
AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
215 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CENTRAL NC HAVE HAD
A VARIABLY CLOUDY... SOMEWHAT CHILLY... AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY
THANKSGIVING DAY SO FAR... THANKS TO PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS... THE SECOND OF WHICH IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD
INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. MESOANALYSES AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW MINOR
AMOUNTS OF CAPE... DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-
7.5 C/KM... AUGMENTING THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS... ENDING LAST
IN THE NE CWA BY VERY EARLY EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS
TO OUR EAST... A DRYING AND STABILIZING COLUMN WILL ENSUE FROM WEST
TO EAST... YIELDING CLEARING SKIES AREAWIDE DURING THE EARLY-MID
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH RISING HEIGHTS... DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BASED ON LOCAL
RESEARCH USING HISTORIC MIN TEMPS... LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING
TO AROUND 1280 M WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S... HOWEVER WITH
THE MSLP GRADIENT STAYING UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT... WILL STICK WITH
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S... CONSISTENT WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: A QUIET DAY AND NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND STRONGLY SUBSIDING MID LEVELS. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE
DURING THE DAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE DAY... AND THICKNESSES ACCORDINGLY REBOUND CONSIDERABLY
(ALTHOUGH THIS 1000-850 MB LAYER GRABS SOME OF THE WARMER AIR ABOVE
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION). USING A LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE
TO 925 MB INDICATES HIGHS OF 42-46... A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AND IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD EARLY FRI NIGHT BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD
LATE... SO WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE AS MINOR
WAVES TRACK ESE INTO NC WITHIN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ALOFT. STILL
EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WNW
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER... WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY MORNING. STILL THINK THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPS. GIVEN THIS... THINK WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S (MAYBE
EVEN A FEW LOWER 20S IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS DEPENDING ON THE
CLOUD COVER). -BSD
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT
IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... PUSHED BY A 1035-1040 MB SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE LAST WARM DAY
ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
GIVEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
WPC STILL PREFERS TO KEEP POPS LOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
GIVEN THE APPARENT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND DIFFERENCES WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS VS THEIR
ENSEMBLES. THUS... FOR NOW PREFER TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD. FOR WEDNESDAY...
WE MAY HAVE SOME FORM OF LINGERING CAD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
BY THIS TIME. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WPC HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME... GOING WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES OF NORMAL AT
WORST... GIVEN THE LARGE POSSIBLE SPREAD IN TEMPS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S... WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
50S TO SOME 60S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS CYCLE: LOW CLOUDS AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
NRN NC TODAY HAVE LED TO CONSIDERABLE SUB-VFR CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) SO FAR TODAY. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED A BIT TO MVFR AS THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
PATCHY... AND EVEN IN SHOWERS... VSBYS HAVE HELD MOSTLY VFR. AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON... CIGS WILL
STEADILY IMPROVE TO VFR... FIRST AT INT (WHERE THE MVFR CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED) AND GSO BY 21Z... AND ACROSS
TO RDU/RWI BY 00Z-01Z. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT
8-12 KTS HAVE HAD INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS... AND THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS. CLEARING THIS EVENING
WILL YIELD UNLIMITED CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES AFTER 03Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRI... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MON... ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUN MORNING AND EARLY MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT... THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT/SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MON OR MON
NIGHT... BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE
AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1250 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY... BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM THURSDAY...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
FORECAST REQUIRED LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOW WOBBLING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NC... GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN CWA. FAST
ON ITS HEELS IS THE SECOND WEAKER WAVE GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRYING UP AS THE PRECIP HEADS JUST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A NOTABLE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. NEVERTHELESS... BOTH ON THE TAIL END OF THE LEADING WAVE
AND WITH THE SECOND WAVE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE... WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW POCKETS OF MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW OVER
THE EXTREME NNW CWA. IN FACT... KRAX DUAL POL PRODUCTS INDICATE THE
MELTING LEVEL AT AROUND 2200 FT... A BIT LOWER THAN RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST... SO WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME WET FLAKES
WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHER. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 SOUTH... AND THE NORTHERN
HALF IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A ONE TO PERHAPS TWO CATEGORY
CLIMB FOR THE REST OF THE DAY... AND EVEN THEN ONLY IF WE CAN GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE. THESE CHANCES DON`T LOOK TOO GOOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS NOTED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSES.
WILL ADJUST NORTHERN HIGHS DOWN JUST A TAD... TO RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH (AND AGAIN THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC) UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO MID 50S SOUTH (WHICH COULD BE PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE FAIR SKIES
THERE). -GIH
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WEST-TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED UNTIL
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE CAA WILL SEND TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER
20S BY EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND SETTLES OVERHEAD.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 45M BELOW NORMAL...SUGGESTIVE OF MAX
TEMPS 10-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-
MID 40S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING
CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON. -WSS
FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WNW
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER... WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY MORNING. STILL THINK THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPS. GIVEN THIS... THINK WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S (MAYBE
EVEN A FEW LOWER 20S IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS DEPENDING ON THE
CLOUD COVER). -BSD
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT
IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... PUSHED BY A 1035-1040 MB SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE LAST WARM DAY
ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
GIVEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
WPC STILL PREFERS TO KEEP POPS LOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
GIVEN THE APPARENT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND DIFFERENCES WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS VS THEIR
ENSEMBLES. THUS... FOR NOW PREFER TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD. FOR WEDNESDAY...
WE MAY HAVE SOME FORM OF LINGERING CAD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
BY THIS TIME. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WPC HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME... GOING WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES OF NORMAL AT
WORST... GIVEN THE LARGE POSSIBLE SPREAD IN TEMPS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S... WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
50S TO SOME 60S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS CYCLE: LOW CLOUDS AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
NRN NC TODAY HAVE LED TO CONSIDERABLE SUB-VFR CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) SO FAR TODAY. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED A BIT TO MVFR AS THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
PATCHY... AND EVEN IN SHOWERS... VSBYS HAVE HELD MOSTLY VFR. AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON... CIGS WILL
STEADILY IMPROVE TO VFR... FIRST AT INT (WHERE THE MVFR CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO BREAK UP TO SCATTERED) AND GSO BY 21Z... AND ACROSS
TO RDU/RWI BY 00Z-01Z. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT
8-12 KTS HAVE HAD INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS... AND THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS. CLEARING THIS EVENING
WILL YIELD UNLIMITED CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES AFTER 03Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRI... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MON... ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUN MORNING AND EARLY MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT... THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT/SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MON OR MON
NIGHT... BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE
AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM THURSDAY...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
FORECAST REQUIRED LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOW WOBBLING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NC... GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN CWA. FAST
ON ITS HEELS IS THE SECOND WEAKER WAVE GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRYING UP AS THE PRECIP HEADS JUST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A NOTABLE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. NEVERTHELESS... BOTH ON THE TAIL END OF THE LEADING WAVE
AND WITH THE SECOND WAVE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE... WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW POCKETS OF MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW OVER
THE EXTREME NNW CWA. IN FACT... KRAX DUAL POL PRODUCTS INDICATE THE
MELTING LEVEL AT AROUND 2200 FT... A BIT LOWER THAN RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST... SO WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME WET FLAKES
WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHER. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 SOUTH... AND THE NORTHERN
HALF IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A ONE TO PERHAPS TWO CATEGORY
CLIMB FOR THE REST OF THE DAY... AND EVEN THEN ONLY IF WE CAN GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE. THESE CHANCES DON`T LOOK TOO GOOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS NOTED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSES.
WILL ADJUST NORTHERN HIGHS DOWN JUST A TAD... TO RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH (AND AGAIN THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC) UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO MID 50S SOUTH (WHICH COULD BE PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE FAIR SKIES
THERE). -GIH
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WEST-TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED UNTIL
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE CAA WILL SEND TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER
20S BY EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND SETTLES OVERHEAD.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 45M BELOW NORMAL...SUGGESTIVE OF MAX
TEMPS 10-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-
MID 40S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING
CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON. -WSS
FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WNW
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER... WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY MORNING. STILL THINK THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPS. GIVEN THIS... THINK WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S (MAYBE
EVEN A FEW LOWER 20S IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS DEPENDING ON THE
CLOUD COVER). -BSD
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT
IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... PUSHED BY A 1035-1040 MB SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE LAST WARM DAY
ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
GIVEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
WPC STILL PREFERS TO KEEP POPS LOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
GIVEN THE APPARENT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND DIFFERENCES WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS VS THEIR
ENSEMBLES. THUS... FOR NOW PREFER TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD. FOR WEDNESDAY...
WE MAY HAVE SOME FORM OF LINGERING CAD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
BY THIS TIME. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WPC HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME... GOING WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES OF NORMAL AT
WORST... GIVEN THE LARGE POSSIBLE SPREAD IN TEMPS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S... WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
50S TO SOME 60S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL EXIT OUR REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
TRIGGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ALONG WITH VARYING CEILINGS...RESULTING IN
POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE FROM THE SW LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO IMPROVING
AVIATION CONDITIONS.
AFTER 14Z...WEST TO NW SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 18-23
KTS LIKELY. THE GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AFTER 22Z...THOUGH A
STEADY NW WIND AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED WELL INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION BY LATE SUNDAY-
SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR FOG OR IFR
CEILINGS IN STRATUS BY EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL IN FAVORED AREAS...FSE AND NEW SNOWFALL AREAS
IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. LOW TEMPS TWEAKED DOWN A BIT. TOOK CLOUDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED DOWN THE RED RIVER. WILL LOWER TEMPS WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT MOST AREAS. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
NW TO SE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A CLIPPER THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM DNG AND HRRR FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THANKSGIVING NIGHT SYSTEM
AS THERE ARE STILL VARIATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW.
TONIGHT...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT AS
FAR SOUTH OF I 94. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS MID CLOUD DECK ARE
ALREADY 5 TO 10 BELOW AND IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF A HIGH OVER MANITOBA WILL
BRING CALM WINDS TO THE DVL REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH
A LIGHT COVERING OF FRESH SNOW THE TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 5
TO 10 BELOW THIS EVENING. BY MORNING...RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION UP THROUGH
TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT...AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS COLDER TEMPS WOULD BRING AREA INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 BELOW ZERO). WARMEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT MID CLOUDS
WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY 02Z TO 03Z. DEW
POINTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG HIGHER IN THIS REGION SO NOT LOOKING FOR
AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP OFF. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN BE OVER THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE SOME SOLAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10 ABOVE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN ND TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CNTRL ND IN THE AFTN. A BAND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. NAM 280K ISENTROPIC SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE
DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE PARCEL ABOUT 100 MB...WITH NEARLY SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW...WITH ECMWF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED SNOW RATIOS TO YIELD 3 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH OF THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING BUT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW. MOTORISTS IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN DESIRABLE DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SFC LOW ENTERS EASTERN MT FRI AFTN AND
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND SHOT OF SNOW. GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE NAME IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTL BORDER. DO TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
WILL USE CONTINUITY AS SOLUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK MID DAY BETWEEN
THE TWO SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS SHOULD THE SNOW SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AND JUMP
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS NW SFC FLOW SETS UP...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS
DRY. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY
SNOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT...PUSHING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME 30ISH POPS FOR WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES...THEN DRYING OUT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE ACTIVE AND BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE CWA SHOWING
SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD...SO FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MINIMAL
POPS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON TUESDAY AND COLDER AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN THE HIGHER TEMP DAYS WILL STILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES ROUGHLY AFTER SUNSET AS CIGS LOWER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
123 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.
MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.
USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE COLDEST ECMWF MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.
IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
102 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.
MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.
USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.
IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1010 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.
MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.
USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OFF TO MVFR/VFR AT MOST SITES BY 13-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
BKW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
A CLIPPER EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN TODAY.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE RUNNING MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.
MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.
USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OFF TO MVFR/VFR AT MOST SITES BY 13-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
BKW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
A CLIPPER EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN TODAY.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE RUNNING MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H M M H L M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H M H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.
MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.
USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE
FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN.
CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW
MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z.
CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN
15Z TO 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H M M H L M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H M H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.
LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
949 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FLOUNDERING IN THE 4-7 RANGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND HAS SPILLED INTO LINCOLN AND BROOKINGS COUNTY. THINK THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP...AND HAVE DROPPED FOG MENTION BACK TO PATCHY.
UPDATE POSTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4. VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KFSD AND KHON LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF THIS BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG. WILL LEAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE TAFS AT THESE TWO SITES. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL
NOT DEVELOP...SO DID NOT HIT TAFS WITH ANY IFR CONDITIONS GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS OR VISIBITY DO DEVELOP.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
618 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4. VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KFSD AND KHON LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF THIS BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG. WILL LEAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE TAFS AT THESE TWO SITES. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL
NOT DEVELOP...SO DID NOT HIT TAFS WITH ANY IFR CONDITIONS GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS OR VISIBITY DO DEVELOP.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz
Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.
On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.
Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.
NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 41 50 27 27 12 / 30 20 70 60 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 51 41 49 29 29 12 / 40 40 80 90 20 10
Pullman 54 43 53 32 32 16 / 30 30 90 90 50 10
Lewiston 56 46 56 38 38 23 / 20 20 60 70 60 20
Colville 50 40 47 22 22 7 / 50 40 70 60 10 0
Sandpoint 46 38 45 26 26 8 / 70 70 80 90 20 10
Kellogg 48 39 45 30 30 12 / 80 70 90 100 50 10
Moses Lake 56 41 56 27 27 12 / 10 20 30 30 10 0
Wenatchee 51 41 51 29 29 13 / 10 30 20 20 10 0
Omak 47 37 46 16 16 3 / 20 20 30 20 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST early this morning for
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz
Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.
On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.
Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.
NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 41 50 27 27 12 / 30 20 70 60 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 51 41 49 29 29 12 / 40 40 80 90 20 10
Pullman 54 43 53 32 32 16 / 30 30 90 90 50 10
Lewiston 56 46 56 38 38 23 / 20 20 60 70 60 20
Colville 50 40 47 22 22 7 / 50 40 70 60 10 0
Sandpoint 46 38 45 26 26 8 / 70 70 80 90 20 10
Kellogg 48 39 45 30 30 12 / 80 70 90 100 50 10
Moses Lake 56 41 56 27 27 12 / 10 20 30 30 10 0
Wenatchee 51 41 51 29 29 13 / 10 30 20 20 10 0
Omak 47 37 46 16 16 3 / 20 20 30 20 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST early this morning for
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain passes.
Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes should
experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The next couple mid-level disturbances will be
passing tonight and Thursday, shaking things up a little bit. This
will mean some increased threat of precipitation especially
around the mountain areas, and more peripherally around the
eastern Columbia Basin southward.
The broad area of dense fog has begun to decrease in some areas,
such as the Spokane area and northeast mountain valleys. While
some pockets of dense fog are still possible, it is not expected
to be widespread enough and wind are expected to increase some
overnight into Thursday AM. So the dense fog advisory was allowed
to expire in that region. It was however expanded over some of the
Upper Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake zones
through the night. HRRR models suggest this too will erode from
the southeast between 06-12Z, with the help of some mixing with
that first mid-level wave. This will be monitored and may
potentially be extended should this decreasing trend not
materialize.
Temperatures have been wonky in some spots this evening. At the
Spokane International Airport the temperature was 36 degrees near
sunset, but at this hour warmed to around 42 degrees, owing to the
fog/lower clouds breaking up some and the winds increased a bit
and mixing some of the warmer air aloft down. The 00Z sounding
showed a modest to strong low level inversion which makes this
warming not too surprising. However overall the confidence in
precise overnight lows is not high. Numbers should remain steady
or fall a degree or two from where they are now though. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.
NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 39 49 41 46 27 30 / 30 30 20 70 60 10
Coeur d`Alene 36 47 41 45 29 31 / 30 40 40 80 90 20
Pullman 44 52 43 49 32 34 / 20 30 30 90 90 50
Lewiston 43 55 46 53 38 40 / 10 10 20 60 70 60
Colville 36 45 40 43 22 24 / 60 50 50 70 60 10
Sandpoint 33 45 38 42 26 26 / 70 60 70 80 90 20
Kellogg 37 44 39 41 30 31 / 60 80 60 90 100 50
Moses Lake 38 52 41 51 27 31 / 10 10 20 30 30 10
Wenatchee 39 47 41 48 29 30 / 10 10 30 30 20 10
Omak 34 43 37 41 16 20 / 30 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Moses Lake Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
858 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
LOCAL RADAR AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INDICATE MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE COULD STILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY THROUGH 10
PM...BUT THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS. CHECKING WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT IN CLARK COUNTY...THEY
HAVE NOT HAD ANY PROBLEMS YET TONIGHT DESPITE SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS THAT MOVED ACROSS. OTHER REPORTS INDICATE THE FREEZING
RAIN HAS ENDED AND THAT PRIMARY HIGHWAYS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
SOME OF THE SECONDARY ROADS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN TREATED REMAIN
SLICK. WILL LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
9 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 450 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH SOME LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES STARTING TO
REPORT SOME SLICK ROADS AND ACCIDENTS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST
HRRR...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST AND OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WITH
SOME ICING STARTING TO OCCUR AND TO RAISE THE AWARENESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WAS STARTING TO MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SOME ICE
PELLETS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. PERIODIC CHECKS WITH LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS HAVE NOT INDICATED TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT
FROM IT. IT JUST STARTED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND IT IS FREEZING ON
THE VEHICLES AND SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SIDEWALKS. HAVE TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE 28.18Z RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THIS WINTRY MIX. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 TO 850 MB...SO HAVE LIQUID
AMOUNTS OF 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES.
FOR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES...AND THEN MOVE OUT BY 3 AM. THERE MAY BE SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY MORNING. AS THIS
WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE SNOW PACK...THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
FOG.
ON SATURDAY...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. THE NAM SNOW COVER IS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH. IT HAS
SNOW DEPTHS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WE ARE ACTUALLY MORE IN THE TRACE TO
4 INCHES...SO SOME OF THE WARMING IN THE MODELS IS GOING TO SNOW
MELT INSTEAD OF WARMING THE AIR MASS NEAR THE GROUND. THE WARMEST
925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 0 TO 8C INTO
THESE AREAS...SO A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE TEMPERATURES COULD WARM
A BIT WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 40S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE FIRST OF 2 ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL FROM 6 TO 10C INTO -7 TO -15C. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ADVECTING TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE -15C TO -19C FOR
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SIMILAR WITH
THE TRACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THEY ARE 12 HOUR APART. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
THE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW NORTH OF KRST AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF KLSE IN
ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO. WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF FZRA FOR KRST
BUT WILL SHOW IT AS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH 01Z AT KLSE. AFTER
THAT...THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER ANY FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS BELOW THE INVERSION HAVE YET TO BECOME SATURATED
AND THE 29.21Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS HAPPENING
OVERNIGHT...BUT DO SHOW THE SURFACE TEMP/DEW SPREAD GETTING TO
ABOUT 1 OR 2C. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TRENDS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
524 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH SOME LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES STARTING TO
REPORT SOME SLICK ROADS AND ACCIDENTS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST
HRRR...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST AND OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WITH
SOME ICING STARTING TO OCCUR AND TO RAISE THE AWARENESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WAS STARTING TO MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SOME ICE
PELLETS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. PERIODIC CHECKS WITH LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS HAVE NOT INDICATED TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT
FROM IT. IT JUST STARTED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND IT IS FREEZING ON
THE VEHICLES AND SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SIDEWALKS. HAVE TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE 28.18Z RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THIS WINTRY MIX. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 TO 850 MB...SO HAVE LIQUID
AMOUNTS OF 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES.
FOR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES...AND THEN MOVE OUT BY 3 AM. THERE MAY BE SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY MORNING. AS THIS
WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE SNOW PACK...THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
FOG.
ON SATURDAY...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. THE NAM SNOW COVER IS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH. IT HAS
SNOW DEPTHS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WE ARE ACTUALLY MORE IN THE TRACE TO
4 INCHES...SO SOME OF THE WARMING IN THE MODELS IS GOING TO SNOW
MELT INSTEAD OF WARMING THE AIR MASS NEAR THE GROUND. THE WARMEST
925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 0 TO 8C INTO
THESE AREAS...SO A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE TEMPERATURES COULD WARM
A BIT WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 40S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE FIRST OF 2 ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL FROM 6 TO 10C INTO -7 TO -15C. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ADVECTING TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE -15C TO -19C FOR
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SIMILAR WITH
THE TRACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THEY ARE 12 HOUR APART. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
THE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW NORTH OF KRST AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF KLSE IN
ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO. WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF FZRA FOR KRST
BUT WILL SHOW IT AS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH 01Z AT KLSE. AFTER
THAT...THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER ANY FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS BELOW THE INVERSION HAVE YET TO BECOME SATURATED
AND THE 29.21Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS HAPPENING
OVERNIGHT...BUT DO SHOW THE SURFACE TEMP/DEW SPREAD GETTING TO
ABOUT 1 OR 2C. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TRENDS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029-
032>034-041>044.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
086>088.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
.UPDATE...
SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY SLOW TO CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT PUTTING MORE STOCK IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGES RIGHT NOW WHICH WOULD INDICATE EARLIER
CLEARING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN WHERE
THEY ARE AT THIS POINT DUE TO COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECTING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
THEN MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW NORTH OF TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THE NOSE OF AN UPSTREAM 130 KNOT JET MAX ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
PUSHES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THIS INCREASES THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT...BUT IT IS WEAK.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN MID LEVEL DRYING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5 THSD FT. THE DRYING CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A SHALLOW...MOIST LAYER REMAINS.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HOW QUICK TO BRING IN CLEARING FROM
THE WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALSO SOME FLURRY POTENTIAL TIL MID MORNING. THE
GFS MOS CLEARS THE SKIES...WHILE THE NAM MOS KEEPS IT CLOUDY. WILL
GO WITH A SLOWER CLEARING THAN THE GFS BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
NAM...WHICH OFTEN OVER DOES THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS LATER TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY INITIALLY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A GRADUAL
SATURATION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE
GROUND MAINLY NORTHWEST OF MADISON TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THERE
WILL BE MAX THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL DAY
LONG. BY THE AFTERNOON... THE MID LEVELS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRY OUT WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND SOUTHERLY.
IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN FRIDAY
MORNING... ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. EVENTUALLY... EXPECTING
LIGHT SNOW IN THAT AREA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEN THE BEST
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON... SO I
TAPERED OFF THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY
EVENING... THERE MAY STILL BE JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD SHEBOYGAN AS WE
LOSE THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. OVERALL... I
BACKED OFF ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE TOO DRY.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 AND AROUND AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.
DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION... MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY THAN WHAT WE HAD IN THERE BEFORE. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR A HIGH. THIS IS DUE TO OUR
COLD START AND THE SNOW COVER AND EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A LITTLE IN THE EVENING BUT THEN RISE AND HOLD STEADY AROUND 30
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...
REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. SOUTHEAST WI COULD SEE MID
40S. THE SNOW COVER AND PROBABLE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM MELTING
SNOW COULD LIMIT OUR TEMPERATURES SO I KEPT THEM ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE.
THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WARMTH... SO WE WILL
FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI... BUT
THEY MAY BE PICKING UP ON MELTING SNOW AND FOG POTENTIAL OR POSSIBLY
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT SO I KEPT
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND SUNDAY... THEN DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING ONTARIO OR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI ON TUESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL WI TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A SYSTEM INTO THE MIDWEST THAT WOULD HAVE
MIXED PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECWMF MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREAS.
USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPS FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
THE SNOW WILL BE MOVING OUT BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS
MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS EVENING.
CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE
GROUND MAINLY NORTHWEST OF MADISON TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS...AND WAVES TO 4 FEET TOWARD OPEN WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO BORDERLINE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV/SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALREADY
MOVED OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE THUS ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME SPOTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA COULD STILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE SNOW BAND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN
BY SOME WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. BOTH OF THESE FORCING SIGNALS MOVE PAST THE AREA AS THE
WAVE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 26.18Z NAM SUGGESTING THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO MOVING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING
ACROSS MINNESOTA FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. TIMING THE CLEARING THROUGH OFF THE SATELLITE PUTS IT INTO
KRST AROUND 07Z AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z FOR KLSE. UNTIL THE
CLEARING ARRIVES...THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE EVENING BUT A RAPID EXPANSION AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014
WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...
1/ 7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
17F 1919
IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.
IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...
7/ 17F 1919
17F 1952
9/ 19F 1958
19F 1956
19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
20F 1905
20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877
THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.
ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1020 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL WAA MOVING IN FROM WEST
TO EAST. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWS LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO A BIT
STEEP...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY STEADILY WANING AROUND
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE ARE INCREASING ALTHOUGH THE
SFC FRONT IS SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT SO
WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS HAVE NOT QUITE MATERIALIZED. SIMILARLY FOR
BORDEAUX...WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS HOUR. IT
APPEARS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO HAVE KEPT
THE FRONT FROM SHIFTING EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS...BUT EXPECTING
THESE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO FINAL TREK EAST.
THEREFORE...STILL THINKING THAT HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE IN THE EVENING
AND AT BORDEAUX LATER TONIGHT...AND SO WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN
PLACE FOR THE NEAR TERM. EXTENDED IT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.
THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY...AND REALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH WINDS OF 50+ KTS PROGGED TO BE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THIS TIME WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP OVERHEAD. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A LONG
DURATION HIGH WIND EVENT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT MODELS SHOWING
A STRONG AND PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH COULD
PREVENT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WAA WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ZONAL FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP MIDLEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKIES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS INVERSION. THE INVERSION WILL BE COMPETING WITH DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET AND WITH AN ACTIVE
MOUNTAIN WAVE IN PLACE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. SO...TOUGH CALL WHAT
TO DO EXACTLY WITH HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXACTLY. FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT THAT THE ARLINGTON AREA WILL SEE PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING A HIGHER ELEVATION SITE AND
CLOSER TO MOUNTAIN WAVE/GAP INFLUENCES...BUT FURTHER EAST AT
BORDEAUX AND MAYBE EVEN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE/FOOTHILLS...THE
INVERSION MAY HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS ALOFT. SO FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR ALL WIND PRONE ZONES AS ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE FORCED TO THE SURFACE IN THE MORNINGAND
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL REEVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS FOR THE
NEED FOR FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN A FEW 60S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
A WARM START TO THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH ANY NOTABLE WEATHER
FEATURES WELL TO THE NORTH...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF
H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 4 DEG C AT 18Z SAT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CHEYENNE TO ALLIANCE. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WOULD MOST LIKELY
ENHANCE WARMING WHICH GIVES CREDENCE TO MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. BUMPED UP HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ON SAT AS BOTH THE MEX AND ECM SHOWED TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEG F
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. STRONG WINDS COULD BE LINGERING IN
THE WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUN AS 850 AND 700 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 60 METERS PER THE GFS
ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG FLOW ALOFT AT H75. STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SAT AND INTO
NORTHERN WY ON SUN. THIS FORCES A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GIVES WAY TO A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT
OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WITH THE BEST PVA WELL TO THE NORTH...SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE FROPA. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT TOWARD THE COLDER
ECMWF...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH HIGHS ABOUT 15
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT GIVEN H7 TEMPS PLUNGING TOWARD THE
UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO C. THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IN GENERAL EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE TUE OR EARLY WED. UNTIL THEN...DRY WESTERLY H25 FLOW
WITH MODEST 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE PROGS WILL LIMIT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 06Z TAF SUITE. HAS IFR/LIFR
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA STARTING OFF. HAS
BEEN DOING WELL THIS EVENING...SO DID NOT WANT TO STRAY TO FAR
FROM ITS GUIDANCE. AM CONCERNED THOUGH WITH OUR PANHANDLE AIRPORTS
AS THEY HAVE BEEN UP AND DOWN IN LOW CEILINGS. WENT WITH A SCT002
AT KBFF AND KAIA THROUGH 09Z OR SO BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP
AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDY AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MILDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE, NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS OVER OUR AREA TO START THE DAY,
HOWEVER THIS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS MAINLY
TURNING ZONAL TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THE FLOW BACKS AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, A RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED
BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THERE IS DECENT
WAA FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, AND THIS WILL HELP
ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH THEN LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THE PRESENCE OF THE WAA DEVELOPING /STRONGER ALOFT/
WILL HELP INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MAY ASSIST IN
GENERATING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAIRLY DRY BELOW THE CLOUD BEARING LEVEL, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
VIRGA/SNIRGA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY. THE GREATEST
CHC /STILL LOW POPS THOUGH/ APPEAR TO BE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THEREFORE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME 20-30 POPS FOR A TIME. SOME SNOW IS BEING
REPORTED TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EVEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND, HOWEVER EVEN THE HRRR KEEPS THIS
WEST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE LOW POPS, NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
INCLUDED ALTHOUGH A LOCALIZED LIGHT COATING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE WAA AND INCOMING WARM
FRONT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT SINCE MIXING MAY NOT BE ALL THAT EFFICIENT WE WENT
CLOSE TO A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED EARLY
THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN SOME
VARIABILITY WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING LOCATIONS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES FOR OTHERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP TOWARDS
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF A RETURN FLOW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS,
AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES THE 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP ASSIST WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
WAA AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED. A WARM FRONT WILL
BE DRIVEN NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT AND OVERALL THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE WAA APPEAR TO BE WEAK. THE MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THEREFORE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT ITSELF.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOISTENING UP OF THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS IS BENEATH SOME DRIER AIR AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING, PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE DEPTH
OF THE MOISTENING LAYER THOUGH MAY NOT BE CONDUCIVE ENOUGH SINCE
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE. GIVEN SUCH A LOW
CHC AND OUR CONFIDENCE BEING LOW, WE DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST ATTM. IF SOME DRIZZLE WERE TO OCCUR, IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR UP NORTH GIVEN
AIR TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEAR FREEZING DESPITE THE WAA.
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH WIND AT THE SURFACE GIVEN AN INVERSION
DEVELOPING.
AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY SIDED WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF
THE NAM/GFS MOS. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
LITTLE ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NEARLY SOLID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ZONAL ACROSS THE
NATION FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING
QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD OSCILLATE
AROUND NORMAL.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THAT PERIOD.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY BEFORE PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH DRY AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE SURFACE FLOW IN OUR
REGION IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
LATE ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
EARLY WEEK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TO THE MARITIME PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW IN OUR REGION SHOULD AGAIN VEER FROM THE
EAST TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THERE COULD
BE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOME FLURRIES OR
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
IF THIS WERE TO REACH THE GROUND, THE LOCAL VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR. THE CHANCE THOUGH IS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WIND, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, WITH CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE 5000 TO 15000
FEET RANGE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
FALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, AND A
WAA PATTERN WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE WAA
STRENGTHENS, A LOW-LEVEL JET /925 MB/ ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TO
OCCUR FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WHILE WE WILL BE WITHIN A WAA PATTERN,
IT APPEARS THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON THE
OCEAN ZONES. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD
THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO`S OKX AND
AKQ, WE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 23Z TONIGHT FOR
JUST THE OCEAN ZONES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FEET. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
DELAWARE BAY AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY.
HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX, NEW JERSEY (KDIX) REMAINS OUT OF
SERVICE. WE ARE WAITING ON REPLACEMENT PARTS AND WE HOPE TO HAVE
THE RADAR REPAIRED BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
EQUIPMENT...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
300 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT
RESULTED IN ALL THE COLD AIR THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS RAPIDLY BEING
REPLACED BY ZONAL MID AND UPPER FLOW. A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BY DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. IN
ADDITION...A SFC WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IS ALSO BEGINNING THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A
TIME. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT QPF EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
FAR NORTH...WHICH IF ANY COULD REACH THE GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR PELLETS DUE TO WET BULB PROCESSES. THINK
THE FOCUS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SO HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
POPS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE
STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND OVER
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND RAP. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WHICH DESPITE STEADY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...COULD SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER STILL SNOW
COVERED AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.
THE SNOW COVER/CLOUD COVER ISSUE COMES TO A HEAD ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS LOW
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...MANY
MODELS INSIST ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL SATURATION. WITH
A +12 TO +15C AIR MASS AT 850 MB MOVING INTO THE AREA...SUSPECT THAT
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS BIASED FAR TOO COLD TOMORROW. IT SEEMS THAT
THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH TYPICALLY DO BETTER
IN COOL SEASON WARM-UPS...HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON LIKELY LACK
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S AREA WIDE...EXCEPT
FOR NEAR 50 ALONG IMMEDIATE WI BORDER WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH
WERE REPORTED TODAY. HAVE CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED SKY COVER
PERCENTAGE AS WELL...AS OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...IT APPEARS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN COULD BE IN STORE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A VERY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A ANOTHER WARM SUNDAY
FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC FRONT
SURGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF EXPANSIVE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS KEY AND NOW THINK IT
WILL BE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AM/MID DAY...CAPPING HIGHS
NEAR 40/LOW 40S THERE. FAR SOUTHERN CWA COULD CONCEIVABLY APPROACH
60 DEGREES GIVEN MORE TIME TO WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER
FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LOW/MID F-GEN DUE TO QUICKLY TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT`D RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
249 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SPILL SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER TROUGH BRIEFLY DIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHEAST. AIR MASS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE
LAKE...BUT LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION RESULTING
IN A WELL BELOW NORMAL START TO METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE IN 20S CWA WIDE/IF NOT COLDER IN FAR NORTH...FOLLOWED BY
A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS 1040 MB+ HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TURN ZONAL AGAIN BUT COLD AIR REMAINING JUST TO
NORTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.
BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME WITH ECMWF AND
GFS/GEFS...AS ECMWF KEEPS DRY/COOL HIGH LOCKED IN TIL THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE GFS BREAKS OUT PRECIP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW GUIDANCE BLEND
POPS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WX
WEDS-THURSDAY...THOUGH A MILD PERIOD DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN.
* CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING AFT 00Z SUN.
* SOUTH WINDS ARND 5-7KT...INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 20-24KT LATE
MORNING THRU AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH BASED CLOUDS SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG WILL BE WEST OF ORD/MDW...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED RFD/DPA SEEING ARND 3SM VSBYS OVERNIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN REDUCTIONS HAS BACKED OFF DUE TO THE CONTINUED WINDS
KEEPING THINGS MIXED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS DRY
CONDS THRU DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE. BETTER MIXING
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 20-24KT FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER TODAY.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS FOR ORD/MDW WITH FOG REMAINING WEST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
DEVELOPING.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST LATER TODAY.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EAST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
243 AM CST
HELD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND COULD
SEE SOUTH WINDS MAINLY HOVERING BETWEEN 20-25KT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIXING THE
HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE MAY BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE LATER THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN
SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY MID-MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SUNDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...THE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 30KT OR POSSIBLY A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE
LAKE MONDAY MIDDAY.
THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH THE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Southerly winds have prevailed through the night bringing mild
conditions, at least compared to what occurred the past few
mornings across central through southeast Illinois. The persistent
southerly flow has resulted in a marked increase in the low level
cloud cover over parts of Arkansas this morning with a north-
northeast trajectory. Forecast soundings have indicated an
increase in low level moisture for the past several runs which
is being validated now over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
last several runs of the HRRR model has brought the clouds
northeast into about the eastern half of the forecast area by
early this afternoon. Surface dew points over extreme southwest
Missouri have risen into the mid and upper 40s early this morning
and expect the persistent 1000-850 mb theta-e advection and
moisture transport to bring the higher dew points and clouds
northeast into our area later today. Despite the increase in
clouds, temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid
50s north to the upper 50s, possibly 60 degrees over parts
of southwest Illinois this afternoon.
Models for the past several days have hinted at some light QPF
over parts of southeast Illinois with the significant moisture
transport into our area. However, not seeing much in the way
of lift with forecast soundings showing only the low level
moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion today and
tonight. Seems to be more of a setup for very light rain or
drizzle over parts of southeast and east central Illinois and
later this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
One more mild day across our area on Sunday before a strong
cold front and associated 1047 mb high settles across the
lower Great Lakes Sunday night and spends a few days early
next week, before slight warmer weather returns for the balance
of the forecast period.
The strong Polar cold front looks on track for mainly Sunday
afternoon along with light rain or drizzle chances just ahead
and behind the frontal boundary. Best chances appear to be over
the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly east of I-55, Sunday
afternoon. Other than the low level moisture trapped beneath the
rather strong inversion, not much moisture above, so looking more
for drizzle or some very light rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. As the colder air settles south, there may be a brief period
of some very light freezing rain or drizzle mainly over the I-70
corridor late Sunday night into the Monday morning commute. There
may be some very light ice accumulations over extreme southeast
Illinois just in time for the return to work and school Monday
morning.
Cold and dry conditions expected to settle over our area for
Monday through Wednesday. We may see some lingering light
precip Monday morning over the far southeast counties, but the
front should get shunted well south of our area by Monday
afternoon and evening ushering in some rather chilly temperatures
again across the entire area Monday night. Lows will dip into the
10 to 15 degree range over the north half of the forecast area
Tuesday morning with low to mid 20s common south. Quiet but chilly
temperatures will be the story through Wednesday morning before
we see a gradual moderating trend starting Wednesday afternoon as
the upper flow becomes more zonal over the lower 48. Southerly
return flow develops ahead of the next shortwave on Thursday
bringing in warming temperatures but also chances for
precipitation mainly from Wednesday night through Friday as a
series of weak impulse translate east in the zonal flow across the
center of the country.
With the flow deamplifying during this period, we are seeing some
timing differences with respect to the sensible weather associated
with these fast moving and relatively weak waves, especially
towards the end of the week. However, with a zonal flow pattern
seen over western Canada and medium range models not showing much
in the way of downstream blocking or buckling of the Polar jet, we
should average out above normal on temperatures in the Wednesday
through Friday forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
VFR conditions across central/SE IL expected to deteriorate early
Saturday morning as low level moisture overruns a warm frontal
zone. Model forecast soundings indicate saturation down to surface
in this scenario, but based TAFs more on typical MOS guidance
values which look more likely. Went with MVFR cigs/vsby by 14Z
with cloud cover becoming scattered after 19Z. Winds generally
S10-15 kts. Gusts 20-25 kts during afternoon hours. Took low level
wind shear out of TAFs for this update as winds sampled by area
soundings have been a bit slower than previous model forecasts,
meaning total wind shear below 2 kft AGL will struggle to reach
30 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1117 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND H85 WAA IS AIDING TO ADVECT A WARM
FRONT INTO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND TO THE MID AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE SNOW PACK MELTING
WITH THIS WAA. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
IT IS CLEAR THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE NAM OVER DOES THE
CURRENT SNOW COVER. WITH STRONG H85 WAA THE NAM POPS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE GFS HAS SOMETHING
SIMILAR...BUT NOT AS BULLISH. A LOOK AT THE MODEL FIELDS AND
OBSERVATIONS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS NOT A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OR FORCING FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOG DUE TO OVERRUNNING WARM AIR OVER A MELTING SNOW
PACK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 8-10KTS TONIGHT WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WIND WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT
PATCHY TONIGHT . HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THROUGH THE AREA...ALSO INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER A
LARGE AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. DID NOT USE ANY OF THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMP FORECASTS
AS THE NAM KEEPS SNOW PACK AROUND A THUS LOWERS TEMPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE UNDER DOWN AS H85 WAA DROVE TEMPS HIGHER.
THE RUC HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON HIGHS AND TRENDS WITH TEMPS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT BUT WITH AMERICAN MODELS
VERIFYING TOO MOIST OVER BL AND ENOUGH OF GRADIENT PRE-FRONTAL
FOR 5-10+ MPH WINDS AND TYPICALLY NOT FAVORED VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION I HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION ATTIM. DECENT
TEMP GRADIENT BY 12Z SUN WITH 20S FAR NORTHWEST CWA POST-FRONTAL
CONTRAST TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO OCCUR IN THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE EXITING FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA BY MIDDAY. ENSUING COLD
ADVECTION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPS DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL PM
SUNSHINE. SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CLEARING EARLY WITH CANADIAN
HIGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN. LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT COMPLETE BOTTOM OUT
ON LOWS AND WITH LOSS OF SNOW COVER LEANED TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH MAINLY TEENS FOR LOWS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST CWA. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DRY AND CONTINUED COLD WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGS. IF ANY LONGER DURATION OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS THEN LOWS MAY
BE STILL 2-4 DEGS TOO WARM SOME LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW USHERING IN WARMER AIR FOR REBOUND ON TEMPS INTO THE 30S
FOR HIGHS MANY AREAS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUPPORT A LIGHT PCPN
EVENT AS EJECTING ENERGY FROM ROCKIES MEETS UP WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. CHALLENGE THOUGH IS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES AND AS RESULT
INSTEAD OF PLACING HIGHER POPS FOR WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE ONLY 12
HOUR EVENT AT BEST... HAVE PLACED SMALL POPS OVER 24+ HOUR PERIOD
FOCUSING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ATTIM. PCPN TYPE APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY RAIN BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT
WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE MODERATING TO CLOSER
TO NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
A STRONG WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL SWEEP NORTH OF ALL
TERMINALS BY 15Z SATURDAY. THROUGH SUNRISE...SOME MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT AS WINDS INCREASE...THIS WILL
BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AT CID AND
DBQ...THUS A TEMPO FOR 4SM FOG IS INCLUDED VS A FM GROUP.
OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS OF 1O TO 20 KTS...AND
VFR CIGS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WRONG...AND FORECAST
CONSISTENTLY VERY LOW IFR AND EVEN MINIMUMS AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WE ARE NOT GOING WITH THIS IDEA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
329 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE MILDER WEATHER AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO RETREAT THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECK OF 4-6KFT...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL SUSTAIN THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THE
CURRENT TRENDS...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TH FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY STAY
AROUND 50 WITH THE CLOUDS TOWARDS MIDDAY SLOWING DOWN THE RISE.
BY TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. OUR
NORTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE EDGE OF THIS EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND THUS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS
WITH BASICALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. ALSO WENT WITH A BUFFER
ZONE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THERE ARE NO REAL
SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER REGIME. IF ANYTHING...THE THREAT OF
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIGHT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY KEEP
MOST OF OUR WEEKEND MAINLY DRY. CLOUDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION
MARK FOR SUNDAY...WITH A MODEL BLEND PROVIDING A NICE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IF RAIN CHANCES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO RETREAT...PROVIDING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SUN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
ACTIVE AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN STATES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY NOW SURGING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A THREAT FOR A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MODIFY BUT MEANDER ABOUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD
INTO EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FALL DURING THE DAY. FORTUNATELY IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH BY THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS EASE
BELOW FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS CHANCE OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS
WARM BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ENDING THE WINTRY PRECIP THREAT
BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO
ONLY MAKE IT SOUTHWARD TO A JACKSON TO PIKEVILLE LINE AND ANY SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.
WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH...PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIP APPEAR LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST. FOR NOW...TEMPS SUPPORT
ALL RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PERIODIC
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS TO OUR NORTH MAY NOT BE HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS NOT GREAT BEYOND MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BEST THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG INVERSIONS SET UP BOTH NIGHTS...WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY...A COMPROMISED SOLUTION
WOULD STILL YIELD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 2O TO 30 MPH. I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
THIS. THIS WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE MILDER WEATHER AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO RETREAT THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECK OF 4-6KFT...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL SUSTAIN THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THE
CURRENT TRENDS...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TH FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY STAY
AROUND 50 WITH THE CLOUDS TOWARDS MIDDAY SLOWING DOWN THE RISE.
BY TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. OUR
NORTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE EDGE OF THIS EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND THUS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS
WITH BASICALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. ALSO WENT WITH A BUFFER
ZONE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THERE ARE NO REAL
SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER REGIME. IF ANYTHING...THE THREAT OF
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIGHT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY KEEP
MOST OF OUR WEEKEND MAINLY DRY. CLOUDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION
MARK FOR SUNDAY...WITH A MODEL BLEND PROVIDING A NICE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IF RAIN CHANCES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...IT MAY BE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO
RETREAT...PROVIDING MORE POTENTIAL FOR SUN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BEST THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG INVERSIONS SET UP BOTH NIGHTS...WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY...A COMPROMISED SOLUTION
WOULD STILL YIELD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 2O TO 30 MPH. I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
THIS. THIS WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1256 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY GRIDS. WE SHOULD SEE RIDGE VALLEY
SPLITS GETTING STEEPER AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS A STRONG INVERSION
SETS UP WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. LATEST RAP
DOESN`T REALLY JIVE WITH THE NAM WHEN IT COMES TO MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP SUGGEST MODEST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD WIND
GUST POTENTIAL WHILE THE NAM HAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING HEIGHTS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY DAYTIME FORECAST TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING...
EXPANDING THE AREA OF COLDER VALLEYS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF A BIT FASTER THAN WAS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
DEEP VALLEYS. HAVE LOWERED VALLEY MINS A LITTLE BIT FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRAPED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO SET UP INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW
STILL CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS CONTINUED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVING INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
POSE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE
DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP OFF QUICK EARLY INTO THE NIGHT BUT
MAY BECOME STEADY LATE. WITH THE COUPLED INSULATION FROM CLOUD COVER
AND INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE
AREA...THINKING THESE DEEP VALLEY LOWS WILL NOT REALIZE THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL WITH MIN TEMPS DESPITE DEW POINTS IN IN THE LOWER 20S. THIS
IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND WHETHER IT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
THIS LIKELY WON/T HAPPEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST BUT THE
SHALLOWER VALLEYS IN THE WEST WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST. AT THIS
POINT WILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO REACH THEIR LOW BEFORE 06Z AND STAY MIXED NEARLY ALL NIGHT.
LOCATIONS IN THE EAST WILL REACH THEIR LOWS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
MID 20S FOR LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
HEADED INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GRADIENT ON THE INCREASE...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME 30 KNOT GUSTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MAINLY THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE INVERSION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND
A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE
VALLEY AREAS. HAVE PUT THESE VALUES INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD
COVER HANGING AROUND AND WARMER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY STILL HEADING INTO THIS EVENT
AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW 30S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MENTIONING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE WITH QUITE A DRY MID LEVEL IN PLACE TO START
THIS EVENT. WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ONLY UP TO 800MB AND LITTLE
LIFT MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...EXPECTING ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO MAKE IT INTO THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES.
IN FACT...EVEN THE NAM WHICH IS USUALLY BIASED TOWARD BEING WETTER
SHOWS THE LOW LEVELS STRUGGLING TO MOISTEN UP. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND NO QPF FORECAST. LOW TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND THOSE MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS AS
RIDGE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR STEADY DUE TO INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIME FRAME.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LL FLOW HELPS
TO INCREASE LL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND
WOULD EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON. MOISTURE DEEPENS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO
BE RAIN DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
A WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THIS DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL PRECIP DROPS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE TIMING
OF THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR MAKES IT IN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS POST-FRONTAL HELPING TO USHER IN WARMER
TEMPS...LL MOISTURE... CLOUDS...AND SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE WETTER OF THE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...
MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BEST THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG INVERSIONS SET UP BOTH NIGHTS...WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY...A COMPROMISED SOLUTION
WOULD STILL YIELD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 2O TO 30 MPH. I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
THIS. THIS WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. A MILD DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND DROPS HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN HAS UNDERPERFORMED SO FAR AND
HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE IT MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE
FROM WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE PCPN HAS BEEN LIGHT SNOW BUT THERE HAVE
BEEN PATCHES OF LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE PCPN
MOVING EAST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 6AM. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY EARLY AS IMPACT FROM WHAT/S LEFT OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ZONAL FLOW. NOT MUCH TOO IT BUT WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE GRIDS. BUFKIT SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT IN
SOUTH FLOW. ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIQUID.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM +8C TO -5C BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
THOUGH...LESS THAN 4K FT. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL
SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH NO BIG STORMS AND
ONLY A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SFC HIGH BRINGS FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVES EAST WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FOLLOW AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW
5000 FEET.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE QUESTION MARKS AS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FOCUS
SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF TIMING/LOCATION INCONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
A BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
THE TAF SITES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH A BIT OF SLEET
AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING BY 10Z TO 11Z THIS MORNING.
NOT EXPECTING BIG REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR LONG PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHOWERY IN NATURE.
CEILINGS HAVE TRENDED UP THIS EVENING WITH KMKG AND KGRR THE ONLY
TAF SITES STILL REPORTING A MVFR CEILING. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL SITES BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO
MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LITTLE APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Above normal temperatures are expected to continue today, as a
midlevel ridge axis shifts over the forecast area and 925 hPa
temperatures increase to around +16 C throughout the CWA. Highs
today should reach the 60s in most locations, and slightly lighter
winds will also help temperatures feel warmer this afternoon.
The main focus in the short term will be the arrival of a strong
cold front on Sunday. The front has already begun plunging southeast
across Montana, and will arrive in our area on Sunday. Timing of the
frontal passage is just a touch slower than yesterday, which creates
a slightly higher potential of light rain showers in southeastern
portions of the CWA along/ahead of the front Sunday afternoon. Upper
40s to lower 50s dewpoints are expected to surge into the area ahead
of the front, and may combine with lift along the cold front to
support light precipitation in central MO where moisture is highest.
NAM and some SREF soundings indicate a lingering saturated layer
around ~900 hPa just behind the front which could support a brief
window of freezing drizzle or perhaps some very light sleet as a
result of quickly falling boundary layer temperatures, but have some
concerns that the saturated layer may be a bit overdone and may be
too shallow to support precipitation just behind the front, so have
not included any wintry precipitation in the forecast at this time.
Should more of the soundings become supportive, the most likely
locations for freezing drizzle transitioning to light sleet would be
in northwest MO on Sunday morning, and then in central MO late
Sunday afternoon or evening.
Sharply colder temperatures and brisk northwest winds are expected
immediately following frontal passage, allowing temperatures to tank
into the teens by daybreak Monday. A little recovery in temperatures
is possible Monday afternoon as clouds clear out, but highs are not
expected to surpass the freezing mark in the CWA. However, the cold
front`s parent trough will continue to sweep off to the east, and
will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 40s or low 50s for
Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period.
The next chance of precipitation is still expected Wednesday night
and Thursday as a shortwave trough drifts eastward across the
region. Soundings look mainly supportive of liquid precipitation,
but have included a chance of rain or snow to account for some
uncertainty in temperature profiles. In any case, the zonal flow
aloft and seasonable daytime temperatures should not support any
snow accumulations during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Feeling is that fog development will not be prevailing through the
entire early morning period, as dry air above the surface and mixed
out boundary layer should provide enough mitigating ingredients to
prevent the widespread, prevailing fog. That being said, moisture
will make its way into the area and temperature/dew point depression
will be rather low, so will go with a mention of MVFR fog, with
perhaps some brief IFR periods. HRRR guidance through the night
indicates some patchy IFR VIS near the terminals, so will hold on to
the mention of IFR. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Saturday and for
parts of the area into Sunday. But by Sunday afternoon, the bottom
will fall out as a strong cold front blasts through the area. As has
been the case the last few days, models remain consistent in moving
the front through the day, but there remains some timing differences
that then result in the potential for huge bust potential. The GFS
remains the fastest and seems like an outlier at this point given
the closer clustering of timing amongst the GEM, NAM and the ECMWF.
With that in mind, temperatures in the far southeastern portions of
the forecast area may climb into the lower 60s. A few hundred miles
to the northwest, far northwestern Missouri will likely see their
highs set before sunrise, with temperatures steady or falling
throughout the day. The forecast depicts a 30 degree temperature
spread for highs on Sunday and it`s quite possible this could be
closer to 40 degrees given the magnitude of the cold air behind the
front and the air mass it`s replacing.
The other aspect of this frontal passage will be the potential for
showers or drizzle ahead of the front and drizzle or freezing
drizzle behind the front. Forecast soundings show a very moist
low-level environment with a small amount of positive buoyancy ahead
of the front. This may result in a few showers in our far
southeastern zones. Then, in the afternoon, the front plows through,
knocking temperatures back below freezing with winds picking up from
the northwest. This could have several effects. First, the low-levels
remain saturated as they fall below freezing, and with no ice
crystals could result in a brief window of freezing drizzle. Another
possible scenario is that if there is some prefrontal precipitation
that mainly elevated surfaces could become slick as temperatures and
winds quickly cool those surfaces down.
Models are in better agreement for the first half of the week with
cold high pressure being the main player. But the inconsistencies
that have been present the last few days remain mostly the same for
the later half of the week. The GFS remains the most progressive
with zonal flow allowing an eastern Pacific trough to quickly move
ashore and move eastward into the center of the country. The GEM and
the ECMWF, while showing a similar pattern, maintain a stronger
ridge over the western CONUS and are slower to track that upper
trough to the east. The result of this continues to be that the ECMWF
and GEM are colder at the surface with high pressure through the
Upper Midwest into the Lower Missouri Valley. In contrast, with the
GFS being more progressive, it develops lee troughing and allows
warmer air and precipitation to advect northward. Confidence remains
low from about Wednesday onward given the differences in the models.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Feeling is that fog development will not be prevailing through the
entire early morning period, as dry air above the surface and mixed
out boundary layer should provide enough mitigating ingredients to
prevent the widespread, prevailing fog. That being said, moisture
will make its way into the area and temperature/dew point depression
will be rather low, so will go with a mention of MVFR fog, with
perhaps some brief IFR periods. HRRR guidance through the night
indicates some patchy IFR VIS near the terminals, so will hold on to
the mention of IFR. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
405 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
DESPITE THE CIRRUS YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE 70S. FOR
TODAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LESS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTS THE WARMER GUIDANCE CALLING FOR 70S
AND RECORD HIGHS IN MANY AREAS.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE FASTER ECM SHOW THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
INTO NRN NEB BY OR AT 03Z TONIGHT. NOTE THE FASTER ECM SHOWS THE
FRONT INTO NRN NEB BEFORE 00Z BUT STILL FORECASTS A HIGH OF 63F
AT VALENTINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 30F BY 00Z SO THIS
FASTER TIMING COULD HAVE QUITE THE IMPACT LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE NORTH. THE FRONT SAGGED THROUGH KBIL AT 08Z AND THEY FELL 23
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR.
THE NAM AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE NMM AND ARW MODELS SHOW A
NARROW 20 MILE OR SO WIDE BANK OF FOG FORMING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT. THIS AIR MASS IS VERY SHALLOW AND
QUICKLY COOLS TO SATURATION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE ARCTIC FOG
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE WARM GROUND THE
DRIZZLE OR FOG IS BELIEVED TO BE TOO BRIEF AND LIGHT TO PRODUCE
AN OBVIOUS TRAVEL HAZARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
REALITY HITS THAT IT IS ALMOST DECEMBER. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GO
ANYWHERE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE REBOUNDING OF TEMPS...AND GUIDANCE ONLY HAS HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL BE 40 TO 50 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TEMPS MAYBE TWO HIGH...AS
FORECAST FOLLOWS GUIDANCE IN WARMING UP AROUND 5 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS TO THE NORTH TODAY TO
SEE IF THERE IS ANY REBOUND OF TEMPS...IT COULD BE A DAY WHERE
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. A BAND OF WEAK LIFT
FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND IS IN A DEEP
AND FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER DOWNWIND OF THE BLACK HILLS...COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH
THE WARMING DURING THE DAY...DECIDED TO END THE FLURRIES.
A FRONTOGENISIS BAND DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW IS ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT /LESS
THAN AN INCH/ ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH NOSES DOWN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND TEMPS PLUMMET. LOWS MONDAY MORN ACROSS THE
NORTH ARE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEGREES...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. IF ANY
AREAS GET AN INCH OF SNOW...TEMPS COULD DROP WELL BELOW ZERO.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER SRN MINN/NRN IA. COLD
AIR IS SHALLOW AND WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. STILL COLD WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BACK ABOVE 10 C
FOR SW NEB. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SUN TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
50S...STILL IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COOL
OFF INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. THE COOL
DOWN IS SHORT LIVE AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MUCH OF THE WEEK IS DRY. THE MID WEEK
PACIFIC FRONT IS FAST MOVING AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
TOP DOWN SATURATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE QUICK PACE WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR SATURATION TO THE SURFACE...THUS ONLY AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
STRONG WIND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE 40-55KT
WIND 1500-2000 FEET AGL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STAY DISCONNECTED
FROM THE SURFACE UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN STRONGER WIND MIXES DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 35-45KT
NORTH AND WEST OF AN ANW-TIF-OGA LINE. AFTER 11Z...WIND IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE AND SMOOTH OUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO 20KT OR
LESS. WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE INCREASING TO BECOME 250-290 AT
12-14G21-25KT BY 18Z. WIND WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 12KT AND
LOSE ITS GUSTINESS BY 01Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...THE NAMDNG...HRRR...MOSGUIDE AND THE RAP
SHOW STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM
SHOWS WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT AT KVTN. AT 08Z...KLNX RADAR SHOWS 40
KT WEST WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL.
A BLEND OF WIND GUST CLIMO AND THE NAM MODEL PRODUCES WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. A BLEND OF THE VERY DRY RAP DEWPOINTS
AND THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCES DEWPOINTS AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTN WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 70. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
NORTH PLATTE SET A NEW RECORD YESTERDAY WITH A HIGH OF 73...AND
IMPERIAL TIED IT WITH A HIGH OF 74. TODAY RECORDS ARE 71 /1932/
AT NORTH PLATTE...75 /1901/ AT IMPERIAL...69 /1998 AND 1932/ AT
BROKEN BOW...AND 74 /1932/ AT VALENTINE. THE VALENTINE RECORD
APPEARS SAFE...HOWEVER THE OTHERS ARE IN JEOPARDY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
CLIMATE...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA... BUT WITH NO SIG
ACCUMULATIONS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIP IN THE AM WITH POST /COLD/
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHES FOR THE PERIOD.
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO HANG OUT IN EASTERN ND WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF SCATTERED MIXED PRECIP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA THAT FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 800MB FRONTOGENESIS
AS SEEN IN THE RAP13 ANALYSIS. THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO ND TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A MIX OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBILITIES FURTHER SOUTH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. THINK THAT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS
PROBABLE WITH RISING TEMPS TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES NORTH
AND FALLING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING...AND WITH COLD TEMPS AT THE SFC...SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET ARE POSSIBLE. THIS MIXED PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT NO MATTER WHAT THE
PRECIP TYPE...SO WILL INCLUDE AN SPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MENTIONING VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IN SPOTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN THE REGION. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD GO DOWN BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH THE COLD AIR EVEN WITH WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA...BUT PRETTY SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH NOT
MUCH ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET NEAR ZERO AND WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING WE COULD AGAIN DROP CLOSE TO THE 20 BELOW MARK IN SOME
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPS STILL IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...IT WILL STILL FEEL VERY RAW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS APPROACHING ADVISORY MARK BUT TOO SOON TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE
STRONG...WITH 45 TO 55 KT 850 JET AND 45KT 925 JET WINDS
TRAVERSING CWFA. SINCE THIS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY DO NOT THINK FULL GRADIENT POTENTIAL WILL BE REALIZED. BUT
IT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS. SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW MOVES RAPIDLY EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY. AS SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR/ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER ONLY SLGT CHC POPS GIVEN OVER EASTERN PART OF CWFA.
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY
RAPID COOLDOWN. TRAJECTORIES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT UNDER FLATTER
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER 1000-500KPA THICKNESS SUGGEST
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS RECENT INTRUSIONS.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE NICELY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES RELATIVELY SLIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES DEPICTED BY MODELS SO HAVE KEPT WED - FRI PERIOD
PRECIPITATION FREE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN DKTAS WILL EDGE
INTO THE EASTERN DKTAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD ADDITIONAL
MAINLY MVFR BANDS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP INTO THE AREA...AFT 09Z
INTO THE DVL BASIN AND AFT 11Z INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER BASIN.
POINTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MN WILL LIKELY SEE MIXED PRECIP AFT
12Z AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST RUC HAS THE TROF AXIS
CORSSING THE RRV BY 15Z...AFT WHICH WE WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ADDN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VERY LIGHT SNOW
FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FLOUNDERING IN THE 4-7 RANGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND HAS SPILLED INTO LINCOLN AND BROOKINGS COUNTY. THINK THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP...AND HAVE DROPPED FOG MENTION BACK TO PATCHY.
UPDATE POSTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4. VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
FOG AND STRATUS IS STRUGGLING TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 6 TO 8 SM AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR STRATUS SEEMS LESS
LIKELY...AS SEEN ON THE MOST RECENT HIGH RES FORECAST MODELS. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG REACHING MVFR CRITERIA IS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MN AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
WILL LEAVE A TEMPO MENTION IN THE KFSD TAF DOWN TO 3SM FROM 08Z-
11Z IN CASE SOME BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DEVELOPS...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...INCREASING
TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 00Z/SUN.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 850 MB...AND REMAINING IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH
TODAY. THIS DRIER SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERED AS SATELLITE SHOWS
NO CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL UPSTREAM. WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS IN THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IT WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
MOS FOR HIGHS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM...
SLIGHT RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE MIX LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TIED CLOSELY WITH THE FRONT, BUT
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOISTURE AND POST
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD COMBINE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TAKE A BIT OF A
BREAK MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 42 60 48 / 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 39 62 43 / 0 0 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 41 60 46 / 0 10 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 34 60 38 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1109 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
LOCAL RADAR AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INDICATE MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE COULD STILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY THROUGH 10
PM...BUT THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS. CHECKING WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT IN CLARK COUNTY...THEY
HAVE NOT HAD ANY PROBLEMS YET TONIGHT DESPITE SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS THAT MOVED ACROSS. OTHER REPORTS INDICATE THE FREEZING
RAIN HAS ENDED AND THAT PRIMARY HIGHWAYS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
SOME OF THE SECONDARY ROADS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN TREATED REMAIN
SLICK. WILL LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
9 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 450 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH SOME LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES STARTING TO
REPORT SOME SLICK ROADS AND ACCIDENTS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST
HRRR...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST AND OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WITH
SOME ICING STARTING TO OCCUR AND TO RAISE THE AWARENESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WAS STARTING TO MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SOME ICE
PELLETS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. PERIODIC CHECKS WITH LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS HAVE NOT INDICATED TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT
FROM IT. IT JUST STARTED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND IT IS FREEZING ON
THE VEHICLES AND SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SIDEWALKS. HAVE TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE 28.18Z RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THIS WINTRY MIX. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 TO 850 MB...SO HAVE LIQUID
AMOUNTS OF 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES.
FOR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES...AND THEN MOVE OUT BY 3 AM. THERE MAY BE SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY MORNING. AS THIS
WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE SNOW PACK...THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
FOG.
ON SATURDAY...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. THE NAM SNOW COVER IS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH. IT HAS
SNOW DEPTHS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WE ARE ACTUALLY MORE IN THE TRACE TO
4 INCHES...SO SOME OF THE WARMING IN THE MODELS IS GOING TO SNOW
MELT INSTEAD OF WARMING THE AIR MASS NEAR THE GROUND. THE WARMEST
925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 0 TO 8C INTO
THESE AREAS...SO A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE TEMPERATURES COULD WARM
A BIT WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 40S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE FIRST OF 2 ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL FROM 6 TO 10C INTO -7 TO -15C. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ADVECTING TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE -15C TO -19C FOR
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SIMILAR WITH
THE TRACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THEY ARE 12 HOUR APART. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
WILL ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF BOTH TAF
SITES...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT.
THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO BEGIN FORMING WITH A FEW SITES AROUND
THE REGION REPORTING SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. THE 29.03Z RAP
CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
AND THE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS. IT STILL SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVELS
WILL NOT SATURATE OVERNIGHT BUT THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FOG
FOR BOTH TAF SITES AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND NOT EXPECTING THE WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
30.06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE, NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS OVER OUR AREA TO START THE DAY,
HOWEVER THIS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS MAINLY
TURNING ZONAL TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THE FLOW BACKS AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, A RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED
BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THERE IS DECENT
WAA FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, AND THIS WILL HELP
ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH THEN LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THE PRESENCE OF THE WAA DEVELOPING /STRONGER ALOFT/
WILL HELP INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MAY ASSIST IN
GENERATING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAIRLY DRY BELOW THE CLOUD BEARING LEVEL, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
VIRGA/SNIRGA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY. THE GREATEST
CHC /STILL LOW POPS THOUGH/ APPEAR TO BE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THEREFORE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME 20-30 POPS FOR A TIME. SOME SNOW IS BEING
REPORTED TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EVEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND, HOWEVER EVEN THE HRRR KEEPS THIS
WEST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE LOW POPS, NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
INCLUDED ALTHOUGH A LOCALIZED LIGHT COATING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE WAA AND INCOMING WARM
FRONT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT SINCE MIXING MAY NOT BE ALL THAT EFFICIENT WE WENT
CLOSE TO A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED EARLY
THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN SOME
VARIABILITY WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING LOCATIONS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES FOR OTHERS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP TOWARDS
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF A RETURN FLOW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS,
AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES THE 925 MB WINDS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP ASSIST WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
WAA AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED. A WARM FRONT WILL
BE DRIVEN NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT AND OVERALL THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE WAA APPEAR TO BE WEAK. THE MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THEREFORE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT ITSELF.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOISTENING UP OF THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS IS BENEATH SOME DRIER AIR AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING, PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE DEPTH
OF THE MOISTENING LAYER THOUGH MAY NOT BE CONDUCIVE ENOUGH SINCE
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE. GIVEN SUCH A LOW
CHC AND OUR CONFIDENCE BEING LOW, WE DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST ATTM. IF SOME DRIZZLE WERE TO OCCUR, IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR UP NORTH GIVEN
AIR TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEAR FREEZING DESPITE THE WAA.
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH WIND AT THE SURFACE GIVEN AN INVERSION
DEVELOPING.
AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY SIDED WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF
THE NAM/GFS MOS. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
LITTLE ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NEARLY SOLID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ZONAL ACROSS THE
NATION FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING
QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD OSCILLATE
AROUND NORMAL.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THAT PERIOD.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY BEFORE PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY NIGHT TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH DRY AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE SURFACE FLOW IN OUR
REGION IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
LATE ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
EARLY WEEK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TO THE MARITIME PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW IN OUR REGION SHOULD AGAIN VEER FROM THE
EAST TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THERE COULD
BE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOME FLURRIES OR
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
IF THIS WERE TO REACH THE GROUND, THE LOCAL VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR. THE CHANCE THOUGH IS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WIND, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, WITH CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE 5000 TO 15000
FEET RANGE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
FALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, AND A
WAA PATTERN WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE WAA
STRENGTHENS, A LOW-LEVEL JET /925 MB/ ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TO
OCCUR FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WHILE WE WILL BE WITHIN A WAA PATTERN,
IT APPEARS THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON THE
OCEAN ZONES. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD
THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO`S OKX AND
AKQ, WE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 23Z TONIGHT FOR
JUST THE OCEAN ZONES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FEET. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
DELAWARE BAY AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY.
HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX, NEW JERSEY (KDIX) REMAINS OUT OF
SERVICE. WE ARE WAITING ON REPLACEMENT PARTS AND WE HOPE TO HAVE
THE RADAR REPAIRED BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
956 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Area of low clouds has been spreading northeast out of the lower
Ohio Valley this morning and was up to about I-70. Latest HRRR
guidance continues to suggest this overspreading much of the CWA
east of highway 51 into early afternoon, while areas further west
primarily deal with a steady stream of cirrus clouds from the
central Plains. Southerly winds already gusting 20-30 mph in areas
east of the Illinois River and that will continue into the
afternoon, boosting temperatures well into the 50s over the CWA.
Have sent some updated zones/grids to tweak the cloud trends for
today, and also to sharpen up the temperature trends for Sunday
and Sunday night with the strong cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Southerly winds have prevailed through the night bringing mild
conditions, at least compared to what occurred the past few
mornings across central through southeast Illinois. The persistent
southerly flow has resulted in a marked increase in the low level
cloud cover over parts of Arkansas this morning with a north-
northeast trajectory. Forecast soundings have indicated an
increase in low level moisture for the past several runs which
is being validated now over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
last several runs of the HRRR model has brought the clouds
northeast into about the eastern half of the forecast area by
early this afternoon. Surface dew points over extreme southwest
Missouri have risen into the mid and upper 40s early this morning
and expect the persistent 1000-850 mb theta-e advection and
moisture transport to bring the higher dew points and clouds
northeast into our area later today. Despite the increase in
clouds, temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid
50s north to the upper 50s, possibly 60 degrees over parts
of southwest Illinois this afternoon.
Models for the past several days have hinted at some light QPF
over parts of southeast Illinois with the significant moisture
transport into our area. However, not seeing much in the way
of lift with forecast soundings showing only the low level
moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion today and
tonight. Seems to be more of a setup for very light rain or
drizzle over parts of southeast and east central Illinois and
later this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
One more mild day across our area on Sunday before a strong
cold front and associated 1047 mb high settles across the
lower Great Lakes Sunday night and spends a few days early
next week, before slight warmer weather returns for the balance
of the forecast period.
The strong Polar cold front looks on track for mainly Sunday
afternoon along with light rain or drizzle chances just ahead
and behind the frontal boundary. Best chances appear to be over
the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly east of I-55, Sunday
afternoon. Other than the low level moisture trapped beneath the
rather strong inversion, not much moisture above, so looking more
for drizzle or some very light rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. As the colder air settles south, there may be a brief period
of some very light freezing rain or drizzle mainly over the I-70
corridor late Sunday night into the Monday morning commute. There
may be some very light ice accumulations over extreme southeast
Illinois just in time for the return to work and school Monday
morning.
Cold and dry conditions expected to settle over our area for
Monday through Wednesday. We may see some lingering light
precip Monday morning over the far southeast counties, but the
front should get shunted well south of our area by Monday
afternoon and evening ushering in some rather chilly temperatures
again across the entire area Monday night. Lows will dip into the
10 to 15 degree range over the north half of the forecast area
Tuesday morning with low to mid 20s common south. Quiet but chilly
temperatures will be the story through Wednesday morning before
we see a gradual moderating trend starting Wednesday afternoon as
the upper flow becomes more zonal over the lower 48. Southerly
return flow develops ahead of the next shortwave on Thursday
bringing in warming temperatures but also chances for
precipitation mainly from Wednesday night through Friday as a
series of weak impulse translate east in the zonal flow across the
center of the country.
With the flow deamplifying during this period, we are seeing some
timing differences with respect to the sensible weather associated
with these fast moving and relatively weak waves, especially
towards the end of the week. However, with a zonal flow pattern
seen over western Canada and medium range models not showing much
in the way of downstream blocking or buckling of the Polar jet, we
should average out above normal on temperatures in the Wednesday
through Friday forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Scattered to broken high cirrus has advected over the TAF sites
and should remain over the area through most of the TAF period.
However, in response to some warm air and moisture advection from
the south, lower MVFR clouds are advecting northward toward the
parts of IL. NAM low level RH fields and cloud forecast timing from
the HRRR model suggest that most of the lower clouds will remain
in the south and eastern parts of the state, so should only effect
CMI this afternoon. So, will have scattered lower clouds at all
sites this morning and afternoon, but have a 4hr TEMPO group at
CMI for broken cigs this afternoon. The lower clouds will
dissipate early this evening, but cirrus will remain tonight.
Winds will be southerly through the period with gusts up to 25kts
possible during the daytime hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
552 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS AND
HIGH TEMPS TODAY...CONTINUED WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES BEFORE COLD RETURNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
QUIETER CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS OVERHEAD...WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG BEING
OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS STRONG WAA PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...SURFACE TEMPS ARE EITHER HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR RISING
SLIGHTLY...AND IS OCCURRING AS SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST
IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY WARM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND THERMAL AXIS SETTLES IN...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MUCH MILDER DAY. HAVE MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S TODAY...BUT WITH STILL SOME
CONCERNS THAT LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. CURRENT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...STRATUS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...LITTLE IF ANY STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT ONCE
AGAIN GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO INDICATE THAT LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE BETTER AXIS
OF MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER STAYING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA...WITH AREAS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA POSSIBLY GETTING INTO MORE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEE NO REASON WHY MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
THESE WARMER TEMPS.
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER PERIOD WITH A NONDIURNAL TREND
LIKELY...WITH MILD CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDIER SKIES AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MILDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS PROGRESSING
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE BACK IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINING CWA...AS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CST
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING
ANTICIPATED...AS BACKING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF A WARMER
AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL AS THERMAL PROFILES. BOTH OF THESE DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY
PLAY INTO PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS TIME...WITH A WINTRY MIX
APPEARING POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 14Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-24KT.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING MIDDAY WITH CIGS ARND 1500FT AGL.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...HOWEVER THE FOCUS IS ON THE STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KY/EASTERN ARKANSAS. BASED
ON GUIDANCE...THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH
AND GROW IN COVERAGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRATUS LAYER WILL
ARRIVE AT TAF SITES MIDDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE
CONCERN IS THAT THE STRATUS LAYER COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE HOURS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HOLDING ONTO THE
MVFR CIGS LONGER. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING TO NEAR 24KT...BUT COULD BE DIMINISHED WITH THE STRATUS
LAYER LATER. OVERNIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN...AND COULD SLIDE NORTH TOWARDS THE TAF
SITES. GIVEN THE INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...CIGS COULD RETURN TO
MVFR CONDS THRU DAYBREAK SUN.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED...MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/INTENSITY OF GUSTS.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
243 AM CST
HELD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND COULD
SEE SOUTH WINDS MAINLY HOVERING BETWEEN 20-25KT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIXING THE
HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE MAY BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE LATER THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN
SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY MID-MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SUNDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...THE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 30KT OR POSSIBLY A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE
LAKE MONDAY MIDDAY.
THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH THE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
530 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Southerly winds have prevailed through the night bringing mild
conditions, at least compared to what occurred the past few
mornings across central through southeast Illinois. The persistent
southerly flow has resulted in a marked increase in the low level
cloud cover over parts of Arkansas this morning with a north-
northeast trajectory. Forecast soundings have indicated an
increase in low level moisture for the past several runs which
is being validated now over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
last several runs of the HRRR model has brought the clouds
northeast into about the eastern half of the forecast area by
early this afternoon. Surface dew points over extreme southwest
Missouri have risen into the mid and upper 40s early this morning
and expect the persistent 1000-850 mb theta-e advection and
moisture transport to bring the higher dew points and clouds
northeast into our area later today. Despite the increase in
clouds, temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid
50s north to the upper 50s, possibly 60 degrees over parts
of southwest Illinois this afternoon.
Models for the past several days have hinted at some light QPF
over parts of southeast Illinois with the significant moisture
transport into our area. However, not seeing much in the way
of lift with forecast soundings showing only the low level
moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion today and
tonight. Seems to be more of a setup for very light rain or
drizzle over parts of southeast and east central Illinois and
later this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
One more mild day across our area on Sunday before a strong
cold front and associated 1047 mb high settles across the
lower Great Lakes Sunday night and spends a few days early
next week, before slight warmer weather returns for the balance
of the forecast period.
The strong Polar cold front looks on track for mainly Sunday
afternoon along with light rain or drizzle chances just ahead
and behind the frontal boundary. Best chances appear to be over
the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly east of I-55, Sunday
afternoon. Other than the low level moisture trapped beneath the
rather strong inversion, not much moisture above, so looking more
for drizzle or some very light rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. As the colder air settles south, there may be a brief period
of some very light freezing rain or drizzle mainly over the I-70
corridor late Sunday night into the Monday morning commute. There
may be some very light ice accumulations over extreme southeast
Illinois just in time for the return to work and school Monday
morning.
Cold and dry conditions expected to settle over our area for
Monday through Wednesday. We may see some lingering light
precip Monday morning over the far southeast counties, but the
front should get shunted well south of our area by Monday
afternoon and evening ushering in some rather chilly temperatures
again across the entire area Monday night. Lows will dip into the
10 to 15 degree range over the north half of the forecast area
Tuesday morning with low to mid 20s common south. Quiet but chilly
temperatures will be the story through Wednesday morning before
we see a gradual moderating trend starting Wednesday afternoon as
the upper flow becomes more zonal over the lower 48. Southerly
return flow develops ahead of the next shortwave on Thursday
bringing in warming temperatures but also chances for
precipitation mainly from Wednesday night through Friday as a
series of weak impulse translate east in the zonal flow across the
center of the country.
With the flow deamplifying during this period, we are seeing some
timing differences with respect to the sensible weather associated
with these fast moving and relatively weak waves, especially
towards the end of the week. However, with a zonal flow pattern
seen over western Canada and medium range models not showing much
in the way of downstream blocking or buckling of the Polar jet, we
should average out above normal on temperatures in the Wednesday
through Friday forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Scattered to broken high cirrus has advected over the TAF sites
and should remain over the area through most of the TAF period.
However, in response to some warm air and moisture advection from
the south, lower MVFR clouds are advecting northward toward the
parts of IL. NAM low level RH fields and cloud forecast timing from
the HRRR model suggest that most of the lower clouds will remain
in the south and eastern parts of the state, so should only effect
CMI this afternoon. So, will have scattered lower clouds at all
sites this morning and afternoon, but have a 4hr TEMPO group at
CMI for broken cigs this afternoon. The lower clouds will
dissipate early this evening, but cirrus will remain tonight.
Winds will be southerly through the period with gusts up to 25kts
possible during the daytime hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
The main concern with this forecast period will be the potential
for stratus and or haze developing over parts of eastern KS later
this morning. At the surface there continues to be a decent
pressure gradient across the area, although this gradient is
weaker in north central KS. Southerly winds have contributed to an
increase in moisture over eastern KS due to a fetch from Texas and
eastern OK. It is this moisture that some of the models think will
help form the stratus. What the models seem to be having trouble
with is the high cirrus clouds that continue to overspread from
the west. If these clouds were to break up or dissipate then
radiational cooling could inhibit the stratus. The high level
clouds and mixing have kept temps steady in the mid 40s to near
50. Given the continuous cirrus aloft and surface pressure
gradient have not mentioned stratus or fog into the forecast. The
most likely location for stratus will be along and east of the
turnpike especially near I-35 where dew point depressions are
already relatively low.
Temperatures will also be tricky today if the stratus forms keeping
some areas from getting out of the 50s according to some models. Not
confident in this scenario therefore most locations should get well
into the 60s and near 70 in central KS. Later tonight the strong
cold front will continue pushing south through the central plains.
Models agree it should arrive in northern KS around 09Z and the I-70
corridor by 12Z Sunday. Temperatures will fall behind the front
which will set up a decent gradient in low temperatures. North
central KS should drop to the upper 20s while east central KS stays
in the upper 40s ahead of the front. A few models have indicated low
level saturation coinciding with weak lift moving in behind the
front, but at the moment remains north of the area through 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Strong cold front continues to move across eastern Kansas on
Sunday morning and should be through the area by around the noon
hour. Highs are a wide range, from near 30 in the north central to
near 50 in the southeast, but as front comes through and
temperatures drop, as well as the increase in wind speeds,
apparent temperature values will make it feel like its in the
teens to 20s. Models differ in amount of low level saturation with
this front, and layer is quite shallow. However some guidance puts
out a very low amount of QPF across the far eastern counties, and
if front appears to be coming in with associated stratus may need
to consider a very short window of light freezing drizzle for the
east as the front comes through. Overnight lows drop into the
teens, with winds slowly diminishing from north to south through
the day on Monday. Wind chills for the morning commute Monday are
currently forecast from around zero to negative single digits.
Highs on Monday around 30 fall once again down into the teens
overnight.
Tuesday the cold high moves eastward as the next upper trof moves
across the Northern Plains. Southerly flow returns at the surface
and temperatures rise back to around 40. Model differences start
to amplify beyond this forecast period, although seem to be in
general agreement that next boundary to come southward into the
state is not as cold and moderates quickly keeping high
temperatures in the 40s. GFS starts rain chances as early as late
Wednesday while EC is deeper but farther eastward with that
system. Both draw moisture northward off the Gulf coast and have
some lower end chance for rain on Thursday. Kept Friday dry with
a short warmup between systems.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
There is a very slight chance that a stratus deck forms over TOP/FOE
later this morning as depicted by the NAM and SREF. Also, the
areas that have cleared out over south central KS have already had
fog develop which is the direction the HRRR has trended. This fog
or haze could possibly affect MHK in the next few hours. All
models indicate VFR conditions after 15Z. Confidence is low in
these scenarios therefore did not include in the tafs.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FEATURE SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHILE SOME LOWER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH THIS ADVECTION...MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA...THOUGH HAVING A TOUGH TIME SEEPING INTO THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEW POINTS ARE BIT OFF THIS
MORNING AND HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER THEM AND BRING A MORE SLOWER
INCREASE TO MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS WELL...UPDATED
TEMPS FOR THEIR HOURLY TREND AND BRING TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE
QUICKER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS
UPDATE WILL NOT REQUIRE A NEW ZFP AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR NOW. WILL WAIT FOR TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO INDICATE WHEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND IF CLOUD COVER
NEEDS TO BE INCREASED A LITTLE EARLIER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT MORE EARLY ON AS CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AND HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE IN REACH EVEN WITH THE EARLIER CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE MILDER WEATHER AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO RETREAT THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECK OF 4-6KFT...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL SUSTAIN THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THE
CURRENT TRENDS...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TH FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY STAY
AROUND 50 WITH THE CLOUDS TOWARDS MIDDAY SLOWING DOWN THE RISE.
BY TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. OUR
NORTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE EDGE OF THIS EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND THUS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS
WITH BASICALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. ALSO WENT WITH A BUFFER
ZONE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THERE ARE NO REAL
SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER REGIME. IF ANYTHING...THE THREAT OF
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIGHT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY KEEP
MOST OF OUR WEEKEND MAINLY DRY. CLOUDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION
MARK FOR SUNDAY...WITH A MODEL BLEND PROVIDING A NICE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IF RAIN CHANCES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO RETREAT...PROVIDING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SUN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
ACTIVE AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN STATES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY NOW SURGING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A THREAT FOR A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MODIFY BUT MEANDER ABOUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD
INTO EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FALL DURING THE DAY. FORTUNATELY IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH BY THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS EASE
BELOW FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS CHANCE OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS
WARM BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ENDING THE WINTRY PRECIP THREAT
BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO
ONLY MAKE IT SOUTHWARD TO A JACKSON TO PIKEVILLE LINE AND ANY SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.
WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH...PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIP APPEAR LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST. FOR NOW...TEMPS SUPPORT
ALL RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PERIODIC
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS TO OUR NORTH MAY NOT BE HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS NOT GREAT BEYOND MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BEST THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BEGIN TO
MIX DOWN SOME BETTE WINDS AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE ARE 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY...A COMPROMISED SOLUTION WOULD STILL YIELD
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 2O TO 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
656 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT MORE EARLY ON AS CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AND HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE IN REACH EVEN WITH THE EARLIER CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE MILDER WEATHER AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO RETREAT THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECK OF 4-6KFT...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL SUSTAIN THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THE
CURRENT TRENDS...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TH FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY STAY
AROUND 50 WITH THE CLOUDS TOWARDS MIDDAY SLOWING DOWN THE RISE.
BY TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. OUR
NORTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE EDGE OF THIS EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND THUS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS
WITH BASICALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. ALSO WENT WITH A BUFFER
ZONE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THERE ARE NO REAL
SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER REGIME. IF ANYTHING...THE THREAT OF
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIGHT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY KEEP
MOST OF OUR WEEKEND MAINLY DRY. CLOUDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION
MARK FOR SUNDAY...WITH A MODEL BLEND PROVIDING A NICE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IF RAIN CHANCES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO RETREAT...PROVIDING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SUN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
ACTIVE AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN STATES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY NOW SURGING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A THREAT FOR A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MODIFY BUT MEANDER ABOUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD
INTO EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FALL DURING THE DAY. FORTUNATELY IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH BY THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS EASE
BELOW FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS CHANCE OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS
WARM BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ENDING THE WINTRY PRECIP THREAT
BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO
ONLY MAKE IT SOUTHWARD TO A JACKSON TO PIKEVILLE LINE AND ANY SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.
WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH...PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIP APPEAR LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST. FOR NOW...TEMPS SUPPORT
ALL RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PERIODIC
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS TO OUR NORTH MAY NOT BE HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS NOT GREAT BEYOND MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BEST THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BEGIN TO
MIX DOWN SOME BETTE WINDS AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE ARE 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY...A COMPROMISED SOLUTION WOULD STILL YIELD
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 2O TO 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1006 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. A MILD DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND DROPS HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS JUST SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PRESENT AND OUR ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD
BE FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH THE STRATUS DECK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE/EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WE ACTUALLY HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT SEEING SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK MOVES IN LATER... WHICH HAS
BEEN A RARITY OF LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN HAS UNDERPERFORMED SO FAR AND
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LAKE FROM WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE PCPN HAS BEEN LIGHT SNOW BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THE PCPN MOVING EAST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 6AM. DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EARLY AS IMPACT FROM WHAT/S LEFT OF THE
PCPN SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ZONAL FLOW. NOT MUCH TOO IT BUT WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE GRIDS. BUFKIT SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT IN
SOUTH FLOW. ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIQUID.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM +8C TO -5C BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
THOUGH...LESS THAN 4K FT. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH NO BIG STORMS AND
ONLY A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SFC HIGH BRINGS FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVES EAST WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FOLLOW AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW
5000 FEET.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE QUESTION MARKS AS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FOCUS
SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF TIMING/LOCATION INCONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT A STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FEET AND TOPS AROUND 4000 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING GOING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LITTLE APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. A MILD DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND DROPS HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN HAS UNDERPERFORMED SO FAR AND
HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE IT MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE
FROM WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE PCPN HAS BEEN LIGHT SNOW BUT THERE HAVE
BEEN PATCHES OF LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE PCPN
MOVING EAST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 6AM. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY EARLY AS IMPACT FROM WHAT/S LEFT OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ZONAL FLOW. NOT MUCH TOO IT BUT WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE GRIDS. BUFKIT SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT IN
SOUTH FLOW. ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIQUID.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM +8C TO -5C BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
THOUGH...LESS THAN 4K FT. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL
SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH NO BIG STORMS AND
ONLY A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SFC HIGH BRINGS FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVES EAST WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FOLLOW AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW
5000 FEET.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE QUESTION MARKS AS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FOCUS
SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF TIMING/LOCATION INCONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT A STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FEET AND TOPS AROUND 4000 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING GOING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LITTLE APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
408 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
MODEL SNDGS SHOW THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING BACK GULF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS THIS MORNING. SOME STRATUS WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE LOUISIANA DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO RATHER PERSISTENT STRATO/CU IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS THROUGH TODAY WHILE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
WILL GO FROM THE 30S AND 40S TO THE 50S FOR THE SHORT TERM.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND. 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40
KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SHEAR FROM THE UPPER TO LOWER LEVELS
WHICH WILL REDUCING MIXING DOWN OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO DO NOT SEE ANY
PARTICULAR NEED TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
IN SPITE OF THESE CLOUDS...ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST GULF AIR WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY...AND UP TO
70 TO 74 MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE STRATUS AROUND
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S EAST TO THE UPPER 50S WEST AS WELL AS MID
TO UPPER 50S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AS WELL AS 10 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR NIGHTLY LOWS. FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IN THE SOUTH FROM 09Z UNTIL 13Z.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. /17/
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT WONT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER FOR THE MOST PART AS WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE WEEK WILL START AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS AS IT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. A 1044MB SFC HIGH WILL BE TRYING TO
PUSH DOWN IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL HELP BRING IN SOME COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL ACTUALLY SKIRT OFF TO
THE EAST AND WE WONT SEE A DRASTIC COOLDOWN LIKE WE HAVE IN PREVIOUS
WEEKS BUT TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE LIKE SPRING THAN THE
BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. THE PATTERN OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL AND DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
ACROSS OUR NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CWA AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND COULD BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE GFS DOESNT
BRING IT THROUGH AND KEEPS THE SOUTH DRY AND UNDER A RIDGING
INFLUENCE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA.
REGARDLESS THIS SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
CWA. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WERE DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA
AND ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST TO MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS. AT
PIB/HBG THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR IS NOT AS HIGH ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
IS A POSSIBILITY. FLIGHT CATS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS BY
MIDDAY TODAY AT THE LATEST WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 67 55 72 57 / 5 7 9 11
MERIDIAN 67 52 72 54 / 3 7 8 10
VICKSBURG 70 56 73 57 / 7 8 10 12
HATTIESBURG 70 54 73 57 / 3 7 7 10
NATCHEZ 70 58 73 58 / 5 9 10 11
GREENVILLE 68 57 71 57 / 9 12 14 18
GREENWOOD 66 56 71 57 / 8 11 10 17
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
28/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
925 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
WE HAVE EVALUATED THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING N AND W OF THE
TRI-CITIES FOR THIS AFTN. AM CONCERNED THAT THE NAM/GFS ARE
UNDER-FORECASTING WINDS BASED ON THEIR UNREALISTICALLY LOW FCST
MIXING HEIGHTS. THE RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WHAT WE THINK WILL
HAPPEN WITH A TYPICAL UNSTABLE BL DEVELOPING. THAT MEANS WINDS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. THAT IS A PROBLEM BECAUSE POOR
MODELING LOWERS CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A CHANCE WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
A SHORT LEAD-TIME RFW FOR VALLEY/SHERMAN COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY
BUFFALO AND DAWSON.
THE ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IS HIGH CLOUDS. THAT WILL INHIBIT
MIXING. IT ALSO SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING THAT THE ISOBARS ARE FAIRLY
SPREAD APART OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...IE A WEAK PRES GRAD.
WE DID NOTE LBF EXPANDED THEIR RFD UP TO OUR NW/N BORDER.
WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. THE FCST WILL BE UPDATED TO INCREASE
WINDS SOME AND THE FIRE WX FCST WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO INCREASE
MIXING HGTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY
COVER TO P/CLOUDY. HOURLY FCST DWPTS WERE ALSO RUNNING TOO HIGH
COMPARED TO REALITY. UPDATED FCST WILL POST SHORTLY WITH THESE
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS SPILLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY HOLDING DOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT OTHERWISE HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT. WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ALONG WITH A VERY
MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EXTREMELY
NICE FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.
WHILE A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION...CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE ABRUPTLY OVERNIGHT...AS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE OVER A
20C+ DROP IN TEMPS AT 850 BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD AIRMASS FORECAST TO REACH GRAND ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE VERY DENSE AND COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO RACE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
PRIOR TO DAWN SUNDAY MORNING...AND ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS DESPITE THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
WHILE THERE IS ONLY VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL
DATA...AND THE CLASSIC DRIZZLE SIGNATURE IS NOT EVIDENT IN PRECIP
FIELDS...DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM INDICATES A BIT OF LIFT IN THIS
LOWEST LAYER...WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SMALL DROPS OF MOISTURE. THAT SAID...LITTLE ICE ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED...AND DID NOT INSERT ANY QPF INTO THE FORECAST IN THE
FORM OF EITHER LIQUID OR ICE FOR THE TIME BEING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
TEMPERATURE WISE...AFTER BASKING IN NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH
FRIDAY AND TODAY...BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
ARRIVES RIGHT AWAY IN THE FORM OF A MAJOR CHILL-DOWN FOR SUNDAY-
MONDAY THANKS TO A SOUTHWARD-CRASHING ARCTIC FRONT. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BE HARD FOR FOLKS TO BELIEVE IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S WARMTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE AN INCREDIBLE 40-50 DEGREES
COLDER...AND ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS DRIVING DAYTIME WIND
CHILLS DOWN IN THE ZERO TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEB SIDE. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY COLD...BEFORE A DECENT-
REBOUND TO NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ENSUES FOR THE
TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING LIKE THE ONGOING
WARMTH FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS
THAT WILL FEEL BETTER THAN SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED TO
INTRODUCE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN ZONES FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY
NIGHT FORECAST "CLEAN" OF ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR AT LEAST ONE
MORE FORECAST CYCLE. ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THERE SEEM TO BE ENOUGH NEGATIVES AGAINST IT
TO KEEP IT OUT FOR NOW...AND LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE ONCE THIS
TIME FRAME GETS LESS THAN 24-36 HOURS AWAY. SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON
THIS REASONING. OTHERWISE LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE CURRENTLY DRY
FORECAST IS JUSTIFIED FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME...WITH THE
ONLY FORESEEABLE CATCH POSSIBLY BEING AROUND THE WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...WHEN THERE ARE HINTS THAT MAINLY OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD BE BRUSHED BY AN AREA OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN
KS/MO AND MAYBE FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. AT ANY RATE...THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY 4-7 TIME
FRAME KEPT ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT LEAST 50-100 MILES EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO THUS THE CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST.
AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO BE WORTHY OF INCLUSION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) DURING THESE 6
DAYS...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NONE. HOWEVER...AS USUAL THERE ARE A
HANDFUL OF CAVEATS/"CLOSE CALLS" THAT COULD EVENTUALLY COME INTO
PLAY...THE FIRST OF WHICH BEING IF IN FACT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
ENDS UP IN SUNDAY/S FORECAST. WIND-WISE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE WINDY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS/GUSTS APPEAR TO
LARGELY FALL A BIT SHORT OF 30 MPH/45 MPH RESPECTIVELY. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE ADVISORY-
CRITERIA OF -20. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEARS WATCHING FOR POSSIBLY MEETING AT LEAST
A NEAR-CRITICAL COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 25
PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH/20
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE ARE STILL A FEW
DAYS AWAY FROM GETTING A MORE DEFINITIVE HANDLE ON THIS...BUT OF ALL
DAYS NEXT WEEK TUESDAY PROBABLY WARRANTS THE CLOSEST WATCHING FOR
FIRE WEATHER.
NOW TURNING TO A MORE DETAILED LOOK AT THE DAILY WEATHER IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...OBVIOUSLY THE BIG STORY HERE IS A
RETURN TO LEGITIMATE WINTRY-COLD. BY SUNRISE...THE LEADING EDGES OF
THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA...PAVING THE WAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 20-25 MPH/GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TIME OF
SPEEDS AT LEAST 5 MPH HIGHER YET AS 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF AT
LEAST 3-6 MILLIBARS POUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY A PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND UPPER JET
STREAK TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. PRECIP-
WISE...ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE THAT HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY
OFFICIAL MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW ROGUE SPITS OF DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE AN OVERALL-LACK
OF DEEP LOW-LEVEL SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND
850MB/ROUGHLY 1KM...WHICH IS OFTEN MORE CONCERNING FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. INSTEAD IN THIS CASE...THE INITIAL SURGE OF LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT LEGIT DRIZZLE...WHILE AS SATURATION BRIEFLY DEEPENS TO
AROUND 850MB WELL BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE...THE VERY LOWEST
LEVELS START TO DRY OUT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PARTS OF
NORTHERN/WESTERN NEB OUTSIDE THE CWA MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED TO
OBSERVE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HOWEVER. AT ANY RATE...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPITS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
MAINLY BEFORE NOON...JUST DON/T FEEL ITS WORTH A FORECAST MENTION
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BECOME IMPACTFUL. OF
COURSE...LATER MODEL DATA AND/OR FORECASTER JUDGMENT MAY CHANGE
THINGS. BY LATER IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW
LEVELS BECOME COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
WOULD ABATE ANYWAY...AND INSTEAD POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW AS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF MODEST
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT MODEL DATA OVERWHELMINGLY FOCUSES THIS FLURRY
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST KS...WILL AGAIN OPT TO REFRAIN FROM A FORMAL MENTION
LOCALLY AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO RE-EVALUATE IF NECESSARY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT DAYTIME RISE
BUT NOT MUCH OF ONE...AND IF ANYTHING NUDGED DOWN HIGHS ANOTHER 1-3
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT RAW MET/MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED A
TOUCH TOO COLD GIVEN THAT THERE COULD BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES AVERAGING AT LEAST 10-15
MPH...SO STAYED JUST A BIT WARMER AND VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 7-13 DEGREES.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...ANY POSSIBLE CHANCE OF FLURRY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING BY THIS TIME AS THE ZONE OF MID LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD-SHIFT OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET
STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THE
DAY WILL START OUT WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 1045
MILLIBARS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO
THE IA/MN/WI AREA BY DAYS END AND WELL-EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...THE CORE OF THIS HIGH NEVER REALLY
PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...MONDAY WILL FEATURE
LIGHTER WINDS THAN SUNDAY AS INITIALLY NORTHERLY BREEZES GRADUALLY
TURN MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. GIVEN THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS AND LACK OF DEEP
MIXING...ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT AT-MOST
ONLY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT VERSUS SUNDAY...AND HAVE A RANGE GOING FROM
MID 20S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 20S/NEAR-30 SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY
NIGHT...A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS IN AND
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN STEADY TO SLIGHTLY-RISING TEMPS LATE IN THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ACTUAL LOWS...AIMING MOST OF
THE CWA RIGHT AROUND 15 DEGREES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 48 HOURS
CARRIES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STAYING DRY...UNLESS OF COURSE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MENTIONED ABOVE
HAPPENS TO ENCROACH ON SOME OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WED NIGHT PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. BY AND LARGE THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE MAIN STORY DURING THESE FEW DAYS. ON TUESDAY...STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 15+
DEGREE IMPROVEMENT VERSUS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AIMED BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S-UPPER 40S RANGE. HOWEVER ALREADY BY TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK
COLD FRONT (MUCH WEAKER THAN THE SUNDAY ONE) DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREA. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL AREA
CURRENTLY ONLY APPEARS TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR
HERE...HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW TICKS COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN
NORTHEAST ZONES AND HAVE A RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...FOR THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN
SURPRISINGLY-GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...WITH
GENERALLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER OR NEAR
THE CWA FROM THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL-GENERATED PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FOCUSES SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. CERTAINLY A SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THESE
TWO DAYS...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH
ARE PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON
BOTH DAYS...WITH FRIDAY POSSIBLY MORE FAVORED TO BREACH THE 50
MARK...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT AND
BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS AROUND
30/09Z...BRINGING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 10KFT ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTELRY WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW ANTICIPATED...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE DETAILED BELOW.
GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 29TH: 71F IN 1932
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY: 72F
HASTINGS NEBRASKA:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 29TH: 68F IN 2003
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY: 73F
DESPITE THE RECORD WARMTH TO END THE MONTH...A STRETCH OF VERY
COLD WEATHER EARLIER THIS MONTH WILL RESULT IN THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANKING NOVEMBER 2014 AMONG THE TOP TWENTY COOLEST
NOVEMBERS OF THE PAST 100 YEARS IN BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS.
THE COOLEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD FOR BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTING
OCCURRED IN 1985...WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
923 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
DESPITE THE CIRRUS YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE 70S. FOR
TODAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LESS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTS THE WARMER GUIDANCE CALLING FOR 70S
AND RECORD HIGHS IN MANY AREAS.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE FASTER ECM SHOW THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
INTO NRN NEB BY OR AT 03Z TONIGHT. NOTE THE FASTER ECM SHOWS THE
FRONT INTO NRN NEB BEFORE 00Z BUT STILL FORECASTS A HIGH OF 63F
AT VALENTINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 30F BY 00Z SO THIS
FASTER TIMING COULD HAVE QUITE THE IMPACT LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE NORTH. THE FRONT SAGGED THROUGH KBIL AT 08Z AND THEY FELL 23
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR.
THE NAM AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE NMM AND ARW MODELS SHOW A
NARROW 20 MILE OR SO WIDE BANK OF FOG FORMING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT. THIS AIR MASS IS VERY SHALLOW AND
QUICKLY COOLS TO SATURATION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE ARCTIC FOG
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE WARM GROUND THE
DRIZZLE OR FOG IS BELIEVED TO BE TOO BRIEF AND LIGHT TO PRODUCE
AN OBVIOUS TRAVEL HAZARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
REALITY HITS THAT IT IS ALMOST DECEMBER. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GO
ANYWHERE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE REBOUNDING OF TEMPS...AND GUIDANCE ONLY HAS HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL BE 40 TO 50 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TEMPS MAYBE TWO HIGH...AS
FORECAST FOLLOWS GUIDANCE IN WARMING UP AROUND 5 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS TO THE NORTH TODAY TO
SEE IF THERE IS ANY REBOUND OF TEMPS...IT COULD BE A DAY WHERE
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. A BAND OF WEAK LIFT
FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND IS IN A DEEP
AND FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER DOWNWIND OF THE BLACK HILLS...COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH
THE WARMING DURING THE DAY...DECIDED TO END THE FLURRIES.
A FRONTOGENISIS BAND DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW IS ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT /LESS
THAN AN INCH/ ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH NOSES DOWN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND TEMPS PLUMMET. LOWS MONDAY MORN ACROSS THE
NORTH ARE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEGREES...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. IF ANY
AREAS GET AN INCH OF SNOW...TEMPS COULD DROP WELL BELOW ZERO.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER SRN MINN/NRN IA. COLD
AIR IS SHALLOW AND WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. STILL COLD WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BACK ABOVE 10 C
FOR SW NEB. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SUN TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
50S...STILL IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COOL
OFF INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. THE COOL
DOWN IS SHORT LIVE AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MUCH OF THE WEEK IS DRY. THE MID WEEK
PACIFIC FRONT IS FAST MOVING AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
TOP DOWN SATURATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE QUICK PACE WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR SATURATION TO THE SURFACE...THUS ONLY AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. THEREAFTER AND ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA. A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF
LIFR IS INDICATED IN THE RAP AND NAM MODELS FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CIGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE RFW WAS EXPANDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE FIRE ZONES
204...206...208 AND 209. THIS CURRENT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST. THE CONCERN LIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS LATER THIS MORNING...WHICH AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TEMPERATURES OF WELL INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN
ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS WITH ORIGINS OFF THE ROCKIES...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15% OR LOWER APPEAR LIKELY. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY GET...YESTERDAY
UNDER DENSE CIRRUS CONDITIONS THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING AND COMPLETELY UNDER-ESTIMATED THE GUST POTENTIAL.
CIRRUS IS OVER MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY...BUT WE STILL HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT PERIODIC GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WILL
OCCUR. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT MIXING OVERNIGHT HELPED KEEP MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS FROM DECOUPLING...RH RECOVERY WAS EXTREMELY POOR. THE
EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING CONSIDERED THE POOR RH RECOVERY
AND THE FACT THAT A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...PROVIDING
FOR A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
NORTH PLATTE SET A NEW RECORD YESTERDAY WITH A HIGH OF 73...AND
IMPERIAL TIED IT WITH A HIGH OF 74. TODAY RECORDS ARE 71 /1932/
AT NORTH PLATTE...75 /1901/ AT IMPERIAL...69 /1998 AND 1932/ AT
BROKEN BOW...AND 74 /1932/ AT VALENTINE. THE VALENTINE RECORD
APPEARS SAFE...HOWEVER THE OTHERS ARE IN JEOPARDY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS/TAYLOR
CLIMATE...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
DESPITE THE CIRRUS YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE 70S. FOR
TODAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LESS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTS THE WARMER GUIDANCE CALLING FOR 70S
AND RECORD HIGHS IN MANY AREAS.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE FASTER ECM SHOW THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
INTO NRN NEB BY OR AT 03Z TONIGHT. NOTE THE FASTER ECM SHOWS THE
FRONT INTO NRN NEB BEFORE 00Z BUT STILL FORECASTS A HIGH OF 63F
AT VALENTINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 30F BY 00Z SO THIS
FASTER TIMING COULD HAVE QUITE THE IMPACT LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE NORTH. THE FRONT SAGGED THROUGH KBIL AT 08Z AND THEY FELL 23
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR.
THE NAM AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE NMM AND ARW MODELS SHOW A
NARROW 20 MILE OR SO WIDE BANK OF FOG FORMING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT. THIS AIR MASS IS VERY SHALLOW AND
QUICKLY COOLS TO SATURATION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE ARCTIC FOG
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE WARM GROUND THE
DRIZZLE OR FOG IS BELIEVED TO BE TOO BRIEF AND LIGHT TO PRODUCE
AN OBVIOUS TRAVEL HAZARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
REALITY HITS THAT IT IS ALMOST DECEMBER. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GO
ANYWHERE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE REBOUNDING OF TEMPS...AND GUIDANCE ONLY HAS HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL BE 40 TO 50 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TEMPS MAYBE TWO HIGH...AS
FORECAST FOLLOWS GUIDANCE IN WARMING UP AROUND 5 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS TO THE NORTH TODAY TO
SEE IF THERE IS ANY REBOUND OF TEMPS...IT COULD BE A DAY WHERE
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. A BAND OF WEAK LIFT
FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND IS IN A DEEP
AND FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER DOWNWIND OF THE BLACK HILLS...COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH
THE WARMING DURING THE DAY...DECIDED TO END THE FLURRIES.
A FRONTOGENISIS BAND DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW IS ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT /LESS
THAN AN INCH/ ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH NOSES DOWN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND TEMPS PLUMMET. LOWS MONDAY MORN ACROSS THE
NORTH ARE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEGREES...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. IF ANY
AREAS GET AN INCH OF SNOW...TEMPS COULD DROP WELL BELOW ZERO.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER SRN MINN/NRN IA. COLD
AIR IS SHALLOW AND WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. STILL COLD WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BACK ABOVE 10 C
FOR SW NEB. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SUN TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
50S...STILL IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COOL
OFF INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. THE COOL
DOWN IS SHORT LIVE AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MUCH OF THE WEEK IS DRY. THE MID WEEK
PACIFIC FRONT IS FAST MOVING AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
TOP DOWN SATURATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE QUICK PACE WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR SATURATION TO THE SURFACE...THUS ONLY AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. THEREAFTER AND ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA. A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF
LIFR IS INDICATED IN THE RAP AND NAM MODELS FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CIGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...THE NAMDNG...HRRR...MOSGUIDE AND THE RAP
SHOW STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM
SHOWS WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT AT KVTN. AT 08Z...KLNX RADAR SHOWS 40
KT WEST WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL.
A BLEND OF WIND GUST CLIMO AND THE NAM MODEL PRODUCES WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. A BLEND OF THE VERY DRY RAP DEWPOINTS
AND THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCES DEWPOINTS AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTN WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 70. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
NORTH PLATTE SET A NEW RECORD YESTERDAY WITH A HIGH OF 73...AND
IMPERIAL TIED IT WITH A HIGH OF 74. TODAY RECORDS ARE 71 /1932/
AT NORTH PLATTE...75 /1901/ AT IMPERIAL...69 /1998 AND 1932/ AT
BROKEN BOW...AND 74 /1932/ AT VALENTINE. THE VALENTINE RECORD
APPEARS SAFE...HOWEVER THE OTHERS ARE IN JEOPARDY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
CLIMATE...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
906 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED MAJORITY OF CWA AND JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST. FOR THIS UPDATE...FORECAST HOURLY TEMPS WERE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGH SO ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPS. TEMPS
AT 15Z RANGED FROM NEAR ZERO EXTREME NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEENS
SOUTH.
RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP BUT A FEW SURFACE OBS AND WEB
CAMS WERE SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST (BEACH AND
DICKINSON) AND ALSO NORTH. THEREFORE EXPANDED POPS TO COVER THESE
AREAS. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW. GLASGOW RADAR SHOWS AREA
OF PRECIP APPROACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE AND TWEAK POPS AS NEEDED WITH ADDITIONAL
UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR NOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...SOME POCKETS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND PATCHY FOG. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE GUSTING
TO 25 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VERY COLD AIR
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE FLATTENED BY
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MID
LEVEL IMPULSES INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. IMPULSE NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA WILL PUSH THROUGH MY FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL BETWEEN
NOW AND 13-15Z. MAINTAINED ELEVATED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER...TRIMMED FARTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST HR GUIDANCE
TRENDING MORE NORTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE SNOW BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX ALONG TO
SOUTH OF THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM ALOFT.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION MOVES OVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. LEANED AWAY FROM THE
ECMWF WITH ITS FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE MORE SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AXIS STARTING IN WEST-
CENTRAL ND AND EXPANDING EASTWARD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DEVELOPING SOUTH TODAY WITH TIME ALONG THE FROPA. MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALOFT SUBFREEZING BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER. AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH AND
CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW PUSH SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WILL END OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST. WITH CAA ONGOING
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE THE WINDS TAPERING OFF MUCH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN PRESSURE RISES SUBSIDE.
HIGHS FOR TODAY LIKELY ALREADY REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES SO WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE FORECAST WIND CHILLS
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUATION OF WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THROUGH ABOUT NOON ON MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE CHILLS WILL
MODERATE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS...BUT VERY
TEMPORARILY...AS A BITTERLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY MORNING FORCE
CHILLS BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM WILLISTON THROUGH JAMESTOWN. THOSE OUTSIDE...AND NOT PROPERLY
CLOTHED...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AT RISK FOR FROST
BITE IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. BECAUSE OF THE ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OUT OF
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...WILL NOT END THE ADVISORY AND KICK IT BACK IN
TO EFFECT...RATHER...WILL KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY IN THE LONG TERM...THE CENTER OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOCAL
RESEARCH STUDIES SHOW THAT THIS IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE TO HAVE THE BOTTOM DROP OUT OF THE THERMOMETER AT
BISMARCK. A BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SETS UP LATER MONDAY
BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT MEANS BRIEF
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
COULD ACTUALLY BE RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.
ANOTHER PIECE OF THE COLD AIR COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
PROLONGED SPELL OF WARMER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND GRACES US AS THE ARCTIC DOME RETREATS FARTHER NORTH INTO
CANADA.
NOTE THAT THE RECORD LOW AT BISMARCK FOR DECEMBER 1...MONDAY...IS
-23 FROM 1893. WE ARE FORECASTING TEENS BELOW FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THAT BOTTOM FALL OUT...AS IS POSSIBLE...THAT
WOULD BE A HECK OF A RECORD TO BREAK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KISN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/VLIFR
CIGS AT KDIK WILL LIFT TO IFR-MVFR BY 18Z. MVFR CIGS AT KBIS-
KMOT-KJMS THIS MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER / DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. UNTIL THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH
POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OF -SN / -FZRA THROUGH 18Z...THEN
MAINLY -SN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ017>019-031>033-040-041-043-
044.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
652 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR NOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...SOME POCKETS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND PATCHY FOG. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE GUSTING
TO 25 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VERY COLD AIR
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE FLATTENED BY
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MID
LEVEL IMPULSES INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. IMPULSE NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA WILL PUSH THROUGH MY FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL BETWEEN
NOW AND 13-15Z. MAINTAINED ELEVATED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER...TRIMMED FARTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST HR GUIDANCE
TRENDING MORE NORTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE SNOW BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX ALONG TO
SOUTH OF THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM ALOFT.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION MOVES OVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. LEANED AWAY FROM THE
ECMWF WITH ITS FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE MORE SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AXIS STARTING IN WEST-
CENTRAL ND AND EXPANDING EASTWARD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DEVELOPING SOUTH TODAY WITH TIME ALONG THE FROPA. MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALOFT SUBFREEZING BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER. AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH AND
CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW PUSH SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WILL END OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST. WITH CAA ONGOING
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE THE WINDS TAPERING OFF MUCH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN PRESSURE RISES SUBSIDE.
HIGHS FOR TODAY LIKELY ALREADY REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES SO WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE FORECAST WIND CHILLS
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUATION OF WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THROUGH ABOUT NOON ON MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE CHILLS WILL
MODERATE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS...BUT VERY
TEMPORARILY...AS A BITTERLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY MORNING FORCE
CHILLS BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM WILLISTON THROUGH JAMESTOWN. THOSE OUTSIDE...AND NOT PROPERLY
CLOTHED...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AT RISK FOR FROST
BITE IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. BECAUSE OF THE ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OUT OF
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...WILL NOT END THE ADVISORY AND KICK IT BACK IN
TO EFFECT...RATHER...WILL KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY IN THE LONG TERM...THE CENTER OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOCAL
RESEARCH STUDIES SHOW THAT THIS IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE TO HAVE THE BOTTOM DROP OUT OF THE THERMOMETER AT
BISMARCK. A BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SETS UP LATER MONDAY
BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT MEANS BRIEF
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
COULD ACTUALLY BE RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.
ANOTHER PIECE OF THE COLD AIR COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
PROLONGED SPELL OF WARMER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND GRACES US AS THE ARCTIC DOME RETREATS FARTHER NORTH INTO
CANADA.
NOTE THAT THE RECORD LOW AT BISMARCK FOR DECEMBER 1...MONDAY...IS
-23 FROM 1893. WE ARE FORECASTING TEENS BELOW FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THAT BOTTOM FALL OUT...AS IS POSSIBLE...THAT
WOULD BE A HECK OF A RECORD TO BREAK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KISN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/VLIFR
CIGS AT KDIK WILL LIFT TO IFR-MVFR BY 18Z. MVFR CIGS AT KBIS-
KMOT-KJMS THIS MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER / DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. UNTIL THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH
POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OF -SN / -FZRA THROUGH 18Z...THEN
MAINLY -SN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ017>019-031>033-040-041-043-
044.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VERY COLD AIR
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE FLATTENED BY
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MID
LEVEL IMPULSES INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. IMPULSE NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA WILL PUSH THROUGH MY FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL BETWEEN
NOW AND 13-15Z. MAINTAINED ELEVATED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER...TRIMMED FARTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST HR GUIDANCE
TRENDING MORE NORTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE SNOW BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX ALONG TO
SOUTH OF THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM ALOFT.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION MOVES OVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. LEANED AWAY FROM THE
ECMWF WITH ITS FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE MORE SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AXIS STARTING IN WEST-
CENTRAL ND AND EXPANDING EASTWARD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DEVELOPING SOUTH TODAY WITH TIME ALONG THE FROPA. MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALOFT SUBFREEZING BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER. AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH AND
CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW PUSH SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WILL END OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST. WITH CAA ONGOING
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE THE WINDS TAPERING OFF MUCH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN PRESSURE RISES SUBSIDE.
HIGHS FOR TODAY LIKELY ALREADY REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES SO WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE FORECAST WIND CHILLS
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUATION OF WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THROUGH ABOUT NOON ON MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE CHILLS WILL
MODERATE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS...BUT VERY
TEMPORARILY...AS A BITTERLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY MORNING FORCE
CHILLS BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM WILLISTON THROUGH JAMESTOWN. THOSE OUTSIDE...AND NOT PROPERLY
CLOTHED...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AT RISK FOR FROST
BITE IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. BECAUSE OF THE ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OUT OF
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...WILL NOT END THE ADVISORY AND KICK IT BACK IN
TO EFFECT...RATHER...WILL KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY IN THE LONG TERM...THE CENTER OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOCAL
RESEARCH STUDIES SHOW THAT THIS IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE TO HAVE THE BOTTOM DROP OUT OF THE THERMOMETER AT
BISMARCK. A BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SETS UP LATER MONDAY
BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT MEANS BRIEF
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
COULD ACTUALLY BE RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.
ANOTHER PIECE OF THE COLD AIR COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
PROLONGED SPELL OF WARMER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND GRACES US AS THE ARCTIC DOME RETREATS FARTHER NORTH INTO
CANADA.
NOTE THAT THE RECORD LOW AT BISMARCK FOR DECEMBER 1...MONDAY...IS
-23 FROM 1893. WE ARE FORECASTING TEENS BELOW FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THAT BOTTOM FALL OUT...AS IS POSSIBLE...THAT
WOULD BE A HECK OF A RECORD TO BREAK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KISN. VFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL ALL BECOME MVFR IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT NORTH (KMOT)...AND
SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH (KBIS-KJMS). IFR/VLIFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO
KDIK 09-11Z AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR-MVFR 15-18Z. LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING POSSIBLE FOR KISN-KMOT WILL IMPACT VIS TO MVFR-IFR...AND
FOR KDIK-KBIS LATER TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ017>019-031>033-040-041-043-
044.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
406 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WEAK MIXED PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS AND
THEIR POTENTIAL NON-DIURNAL CURVE. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
USED A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE MESOSCALE SUITE...RAP/HRRR...FOR THEIR HANDLE ON
POPS/PRECIP PLACEMENT AND WINDS TODAY.
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG A WELL DEFINE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HOWEVER DUE TO A DRY MID LAYER EVIDENT ON BUFR SOUNDINGS LITTLE
PCPN ACTUALLY REACHING THE SFC. THERMAL COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM THIS
MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 0C AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 2 AND TO PLUS
10C ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. AS A RESULT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
SUCCESSFULLY FALL THROUGH THE DRY LAYER MAY HAVE A MIXED PHASE
THIS MORNING.
AS SFC TROUGH TRAVERSES N SD TODAY BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE CWFA WITH NW WINDS IN THE DVL BSN AND SE WINDS CONTINUING IN
WCTL MN. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY THIS AM AND BEGIN TO FALL
IN THE DVL BSN AND N RRV THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST
INTO MN AND THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SE WITH THERMAL
COLUMN COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO BECOME ALL SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE BEST PUSH OF 925MB TEMP ADVECTION DEVELOPS BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z
WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO WESTERN ND.
WITH WESTERLY SFC WIND AND NOT DUE NORTHERLY LIKE THIS PAST
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING TO SEE MAX SOME MINIMAL TEMP RISE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW CRITERIA FOR
HEADLINES AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BARE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST
PART OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AIRMASS WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA MOVING FROM W ND THRU SD
AND INTO S MN BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE -25C AT 850MB ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING MONDAY MORNING. ALLOWING MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. A SLOW AND STEADY TEMP RISE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
SET UP IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH MONDAY LATE.
00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES. AFTER
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES 500 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND TEMPS
MODERATE TO CLOSER TO EARLY DECEMBER AVERAGES WHICH ARE HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS 10-15. GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WED-FRI...THOUGH
SOME VERY LOW POPS WERE PUT IN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO A WEAK
SHORT WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN DKTAS WILL EDGE
INTO THE EASTERN DKTAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD ADDITIONAL
MAINLY MVFR BANDS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP INTO THE AREA...AFT 09Z
INTO THE DVL BASIN AND AFT 11Z INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER BASIN.
POINTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MN WILL LIKELY SEE MIXED PRECIP AFT
12Z AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST RUC HAS THE TROF AXIS
CROSSING THE RRV BY 15Z...AFT WHICH WE WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ADDN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VERY LIGHT SNOW
FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
352 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH AXIS
PASSING OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN MONDAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS
A BIT BUSIER WITH A LOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA OVER SOUTHERN WI. WE ARE
ENJOYING THE WARM SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STRATOCU IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH BUT
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME BUILDING OVER THE CWA. A NICE BAND OF CIRRUS
IS ALSO IN PLACE...AND STILL EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NORTH
CENTRAL IL TO THE UPPER 40S IN EAST CENTRAL IL AND NW INDIANA.
ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 TO WARM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WARM AIR PUSH SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA TOMORROW. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THE FRONT WILL BE FALLING TEMPERATURES. BY EVENING...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL TO AROUND FREEZING
IN NW INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING.
THEREFORE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. TOMORROW
WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. AT MOST EXPECTING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL
ONLY DAMPEN THE SURFACE. GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT LEADING TO A CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH TOP
SPEEDS UP TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HAVE WIND CHILLS
JUST BELOW ZERO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF MONDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH PASSING TO OUR
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW
PASSING TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ITS COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT MAY BRING A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES TO THE REGION.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...THE COLD CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL. WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN IL. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AS A LOW PASSES OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING A WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT AS HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S AGAIN.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. A SURFACE
LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BOTH DAYS WHILE
LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODELS ALSO FEATURE A WARM
LAYER ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT. SO THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY WITH RAIN...SNOW...ICE PELLETS...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC AS TO WHAT WHEN SO WENT WITH A MIX IN THE GRIDS. THE WARM
LAYER DOES APPROACH +3C BUT ONLY BRIEFLY SO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN PARTIAL MELTING AND ICE PELLETS VERSUS FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
WE DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
HIGH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...A LITTLE HIGHER
CHANCE AT MDW.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THROUGH 00Z.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. SCATTERING EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MID MORNING
SUNDAY.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 1930Z...
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR AND DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN FEW-SCT COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRATUS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FROM 18Z...
CIG TRENDS STILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW
SHOWS SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICE WITH
ORD NOW SHOWING SCT020. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MORE
STRATOCU WILL FORM. LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SEVERAL
HUNDRED FOOT THICK LAYER OF SATURATION SO A BRIEF WINDOW OF BKN
SKIES IS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BKN LAYER FOR A FEW
HOURS BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY ON DURATION.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO RETURN INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE AND MVFR DOES LOOK TO RETURN AND MAY
OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...CLOSER TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT FOR THIS MORNING. WITH
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS STEADY OR
EVEN WARMING FOG AND LOW STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGHER SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. MAY NEED TO TWEAK THE TIMING SOMEWHAT BUT HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IN THE TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS
BEHIND IT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ABLE TO SCATTER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20 KT.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* LOW IN MVFR CIGS THIS EVE...AS THEY MAY PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF TERMINALS.
* HIGH IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN MVFR CIGS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL TIME...MAY NEED TO SLOW IT DOWN. MEDIUM-
CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
SUNDAY MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER
THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...AND OVERALL APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD TIMING. HOWEVER...THE INDIANA SHORES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS...AS IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD REMAIN
ELEVATED THERE. FOR NOW I WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT GET A BETTER
HANDEL ON WIND TRENDS WITH SUNSET TO SEE IF A TIME EXTENSION MAY BE
JUSTIFIED. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE ON SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR AND
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS A
STOUT 30.71+ INCH HIGH BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 30 KT WINDS LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...THOUGH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS CANT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS SPILLS OVER THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER DECENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 35 TO 40 KT
GALES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
A mild day across the forecast area, ahead of the sharp cold front
that will be coming in on Sunday. Temperatures have reached the mid
to upper 50s in most areas, and are seeing a couple lower 60s over
the far southwest CWA near Jacksonville. The expansive area of
stratocumulus has spread into northern Indiana, and most of the
forecast area southeast of a Champaign to Pana line is mostly
cloudy. Areas further west continue to see a steady stream of cirrus
moving in from the central Plains, with some filtered sunshine.
Highest winds remain across areas east of I-55 where gusts have
exceeded 30 mph at times.
Not a lot of change made to the overnight forecast. The latest HRRR
model lingers the lower clouds across the eastern CWA through most
of the evening. Forecast soundings keep a tight inversion below 900
mb into mid evening before the clouds move out, and some sprinkles
or drizzle may get squeezed out this evening. Overnight temperatures
to remain quite mild east of I-55, fairly steady in the lower 50s.
West of I-55, lows in the 40s anticipated, although the cold front
will be moving into the Galesburg area around sunrise.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
The 12z models are speeding up the strong cold front on Sunday.
Consensus now shows the front reaching a line from Champaign to
Taylorville by 18z/Noon, when previous runs had the front barely to
Galesburg by then. The frontal passage appears to be dry until
closer to noon, when moisture pooling increases as the front
approaches the intensifying low level jet across far SE IL. Lift
with the frontal passage appears weak in general, but as the day
progresses there is some evidence of jet coupling over SE IL between
the 300mb 140kt jet and the 850mb 45kt jet. Therefore, we lowered
PoPs Sunday morning and delayed them until after 15z keeping them
only in the vicinity of the front. Chance PoPs were kept in the
afternoon, but once again only in close proximity to the front as it
progresses to the SE. Precip type should remain all rain through the
day, as dry air and subsidence shut down precipitation behind the
cold front.
High temps will vary widely across the forecast area with the
passage of the front during normal peak heating. Areas NW of the IL
river may even see temps begin to fall before the Noon hour, while
SE areas will see temps climb into early afternoon under strong SW
winds, despite widespread cloud cover. High temps will barely reach
40 near GBG, while the Lawrenceville area climbs into the low 60s
ahead of the front.
Blustery NW winds behind the front will usher in the 1047mb cold
Canadian high Sunday night. There remains some question to if the
precipitation will continue fall after the temps fall below
freezing, and trends are favoring lower chances of any freezing rain
or freezing drizzle. Snow does not appear to be a precip-type option
due to the lack of ice crystals to feed into the shallow surface
moisture. Hazardous travel could still develop Sunday night and into
the Monday morning commute, as any lingering moisture on surfaces
after the rain ends could freeze and create slippery roads and
sidewalks.
The continued surge of cold air on Monday will keep highs mainly in
the 20s, with some low 30s S of I-70. Little to no precipitation is
expected on Monday, with the NAM/GFS/GEM consensus being dry in our
forecast area, while the ECMWF holds onto precip near LWV early
Monday. Therefore, we reduced PoPs to a narrow stripe of slight
chances in the far SE for now. Lows Monday night will be well below
normal, with single digits possible near GBG and low 20s S of I-70.
The center of the surface high will progress east across the Great
Lakes on Tuesday, shifting winds from east-southeast to south by
afternoon. Mid-level warming and mixing of that air to the ground
will help push most areas above freezing for highs. cloud cover is
projected to increase for areas SE of the IL river, which could
temper the warming slightly.
A weak cold front is now projected to approach N Illinois from the
NW on Wednesday, as relatively zonal flow aloft pushes various
shortwaves toward southern IL. That will work to keep the trend of
increasing cloud cover on Wednesday, but southerly winds should help
highs reach the upper 30s north of Peoria and low to mid 40s south
of there. Any rainfall on Wed should remain south of our forecast
area.
The extended forecast is coming under better agreement with the 12z
model suite. The GFS and ECMWF both show weak low pressure in the
Ark-La-Tex area progressing toward S IL Wed night through Thursday
night. The Canadian GEM is also indicating that pattern but just
6-12 hours later. That scenario is not far off from the current
precip timing. We kept the slight chances Wed night south of I-74
and chance PoPs in most areas Thur and Thur night. Precip-type
remains a question mark, with the GFS indicating an extended period
of freezing rain possible, mainly north of I-72. A surge of warm air
could change the precip to all rain Thursday afternoon, with a
return to freezing rain chances from N to S for Thursday night as
cold air pushes back to the south. The ECMWF appears warmer than the
GFE, which would limit any period of freezing rain. The mid to late
week forecast will need to be watched closely for the potential of
an icing event.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Area of MVFR ceilings continues to advect northeast across east
central Illinois and is about to move into KCMI. HRRR guidance
suggests it should stay there much of the afternoon. Trajectories
of the cloud deck indicate that KDEC will be on the western edge
and would not be surprised to see a couple hours of ceilings below
3000 feet there.
Otherwise, gusty south winds of 20-25 knots will settle down late
afternoon, but most areas will see the winds stay above 10 knots
through the night. A sharp cold front will move in from the
northwest Sunday morning, with an area of MVFR ceilings likely
behind it as well as increasing northwest winds. Right now, the
TAFs only have the front through KPIA before the end of the
forecast period, but areas from KSPI-KBMI may see the winds
switching toward 18Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1214 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS AND
HIGH TEMPS TODAY...CONTINUED WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES BEFORE COLD RETURNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
QUIETER CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS OVERHEAD...WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG BEING
OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS STRONG WAA PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...SURFACE TEMPS ARE EITHER HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR RISING
SLIGHTLY...AND IS OCCURRING AS SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST
IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY WARM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND THERMAL AXIS SETTLES IN...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MUCH MILDER DAY. HAVE MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S TODAY...BUT WITH STILL SOME
CONCERNS THAT LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. CURRENT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...STRATUS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...LITTLE IF ANY STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT ONCE
AGAIN GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO INDICATE THAT LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE BETTER AXIS
OF MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER STAYING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA...WITH AREAS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA POSSIBLY GETTING INTO MORE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEE NO REASON WHY MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
THESE WARMER TEMPS.
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER PERIOD WITH A NONDIURNAL TREND
LIKELY...WITH MILD CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDIER SKIES AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MILDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS PROGRESSING
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE BACK IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINING CWA...AS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CST
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING
ANTICIPATED...AS BACKING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF A WARMER
AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL AS THERMAL PROFILES. BOTH OF THESE DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY
PLAY INTO PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS TIME...WITH A WINTRY MIX
APPEARING POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SCT MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND MAY BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS
INTO MID AFTERNOON.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. SCATTERING EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MID MORNING
SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIG TRENDS STILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW
SHOWS SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICE WITH
ORD NOW SHOWING SCT020. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MORE
STRATOCU WILL FORM. LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SEVERAL
HUNDRED FOOT THICK LAYER OF SATURATION SO A BRIEF WINDOW OF BKN
SKIES IS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BKN LAYER FOR A FEW
HOURS BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY ON DURATION.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO RETURN INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE AND MVFR DOES LOOK TO RETURN AND MAY
OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...CLOSER TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT FOR THIS MORNING. WITH
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS STEADY OR
EVEN WARMING FOG AND LOW STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGHER SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. MAY NEED TO TWEAK THE TIMING SOMEWHAT BUT HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IN THE TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS
BEHIND IT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ABLE TO SCATTER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20 KT.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A PERIOD OF BKN COVERAGE OCCURS THEN
SCATTERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL TIME...MAY NEED TO SLOW IT DOWN.
MEDIUM-CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
243 AM CST
HELD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND COULD
SEE SOUTH WINDS MAINLY HOVERING BETWEEN 20-25KT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIXING THE
HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE MAY BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE LATER THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN
SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY MID-MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SUNDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...THE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 30KT OR POSSIBLY A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE
LAKE MONDAY MIDDAY.
THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH THE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Area of low clouds has been spreading northeast out of the lower
Ohio Valley this morning and was up to about I-70. Latest HRRR
guidance continues to suggest this overspreading much of the CWA
east of highway 51 into early afternoon, while areas further west
primarily deal with a steady stream of cirrus clouds from the
central Plains. Southerly winds already gusting 20-30 mph in areas
east of the Illinois River and that will continue into the
afternoon, boosting temperatures well into the 50s over the CWA.
Have sent some updated zones/grids to tweak the cloud trends for
today, and also to sharpen up the temperature trends for Sunday
and Sunday night with the strong cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Southerly winds have prevailed through the night bringing mild
conditions, at least compared to what occurred the past few
mornings across central through southeast Illinois. The persistent
southerly flow has resulted in a marked increase in the low level
cloud cover over parts of Arkansas this morning with a north-
northeast trajectory. Forecast soundings have indicated an
increase in low level moisture for the past several runs which
is being validated now over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
last several runs of the HRRR model has brought the clouds
northeast into about the eastern half of the forecast area by
early this afternoon. Surface dew points over extreme southwest
Missouri have risen into the mid and upper 40s early this morning
and expect the persistent 1000-850 mb theta-e advection and
moisture transport to bring the higher dew points and clouds
northeast into our area later today. Despite the increase in
clouds, temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid
50s north to the upper 50s, possibly 60 degrees over parts
of southwest Illinois this afternoon.
Models for the past several days have hinted at some light QPF
over parts of southeast Illinois with the significant moisture
transport into our area. However, not seeing much in the way
of lift with forecast soundings showing only the low level
moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion today and
tonight. Seems to be more of a setup for very light rain or
drizzle over parts of southeast and east central Illinois and
later this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
One more mild day across our area on Sunday before a strong
cold front and associated 1047 mb high settles across the
lower Great Lakes Sunday night and spends a few days early
next week, before slight warmer weather returns for the balance
of the forecast period.
The strong Polar cold front looks on track for mainly Sunday
afternoon along with light rain or drizzle chances just ahead
and behind the frontal boundary. Best chances appear to be over
the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly east of I-55, Sunday
afternoon. Other than the low level moisture trapped beneath the
rather strong inversion, not much moisture above, so looking more
for drizzle or some very light rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. As the colder air settles south, there may be a brief period
of some very light freezing rain or drizzle mainly over the I-70
corridor late Sunday night into the Monday morning commute. There
may be some very light ice accumulations over extreme southeast
Illinois just in time for the return to work and school Monday
morning.
Cold and dry conditions expected to settle over our area for
Monday through Wednesday. We may see some lingering light
precip Monday morning over the far southeast counties, but the
front should get shunted well south of our area by Monday
afternoon and evening ushering in some rather chilly temperatures
again across the entire area Monday night. Lows will dip into the
10 to 15 degree range over the north half of the forecast area
Tuesday morning with low to mid 20s common south. Quiet but chilly
temperatures will be the story through Wednesday morning before
we see a gradual moderating trend starting Wednesday afternoon as
the upper flow becomes more zonal over the lower 48. Southerly
return flow develops ahead of the next shortwave on Thursday
bringing in warming temperatures but also chances for
precipitation mainly from Wednesday night through Friday as a
series of weak impulse translate east in the zonal flow across the
center of the country.
With the flow deamplifying during this period, we are seeing some
timing differences with respect to the sensible weather associated
with these fast moving and relatively weak waves, especially
towards the end of the week. However, with a zonal flow pattern
seen over western Canada and medium range models not showing much
in the way of downstream blocking or buckling of the Polar jet, we
should average out above normal on temperatures in the Wednesday
through Friday forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Area of MVFR ceilings continues to advect northeast across east
central Illinois and is about to move into KCMI. HRRR guidance
suggests it should stay there much of the afternoon. Trajectories
of the cloud deck indicate that KDEC will be on the western edge
and would not be surprised to see a couple hours of ceilings below
3000 feet there.
Otherwise, gusty south winds of 20-25 knots will settle down late
afternoon, but most areas will see the winds stay above 10 knots
through the night. A sharp cold front will move in from the
northwest Sunday morning, with an area of MVFR ceilings likely
behind it as well as increasing northwest winds. Right now, the
TAFs only have the front through KPIA before the end of the
forecast period, but areas from KSPI-KBMI may see the winds
switching toward 18Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1026 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS AND
HIGH TEMPS TODAY...CONTINUED WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES BEFORE COLD RETURNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
QUIETER CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS OVERHEAD...WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG BEING
OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS STRONG WAA PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...SURFACE TEMPS ARE EITHER HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR RISING
SLIGHTLY...AND IS OCCURRING AS SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST
IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY WARM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND THERMAL AXIS SETTLES IN...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MUCH MILDER DAY. HAVE MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S TODAY...BUT WITH STILL SOME
CONCERNS THAT LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. CURRENT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...STRATUS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...LITTLE IF ANY STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT ONCE
AGAIN GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO INDICATE THAT LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE BETTER AXIS
OF MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER STAYING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA...WITH AREAS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA POSSIBLY GETTING INTO MORE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEE NO REASON WHY MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
THESE WARMER TEMPS.
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER PERIOD WITH A NONDIURNAL TREND
LIKELY...WITH MILD CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDIER SKIES AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MILDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS PROGRESSING
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE BACK IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINING CWA...AS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CST
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING
ANTICIPATED...AS BACKING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF A WARMER
AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL AS THERMAL PROFILES. BOTH OF THESE DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY
PLAY INTO PRECIP TYPE DURING THIS TIME...WITH A WINTRY MIX
APPEARING POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-24KT.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS/CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AND
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
STILL MONITORING STRATOCU POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. RECENT AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS FROM MDW SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTIVE OF CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. BETWEEN THE SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WOULD FORM AT OR JUST BELOW 2000 FT
WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING WHETHER THEY WILL FORM OR NOT. HAVE
PUSHED TIMING OF SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO 17Z WHICH IS A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY FAVORED TIME ANYWAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIGS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE SCATTERING...WITH
RECENT NEAR TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS. SO AM
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN DEVELOPMENT BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN BROKEN
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING ESTABLISHED STRATUS TO THE
SOUTH WHICH COULD BE NEARBY BY 22Z OR SO.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION...HOWEVER THE FOCUS IS ON THE STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KY/EASTERN ARKANSAS. BASED
ON GUIDANCE...THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH
AND GROW IN COVERAGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRATUS LAYER WILL
ARRIVE AT TAF SITES MIDDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE
CONCERN IS THAT THE STRATUS LAYER COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE HOURS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HOLDING ONTO THE
MVFR CIGS LONGER. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING TO NEAR 24KT...BUT COULD BE DIMINISHED WITH THE STRATUS
LAYER LATER. OVERNIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN...AND COULD SLIDE NORTH TOWARDS THE TAF
SITES. GIVEN THE INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...CIGS COULD RETURN TO
MVFR CONDS THRU DAYBREAK SUN.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY
...LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN BECOMING BROKEN AND DURATION OF
BROKEN COVERAGE IF THEY DO.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
243 AM CST
HELD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND COULD
SEE SOUTH WINDS MAINLY HOVERING BETWEEN 20-25KT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIXING THE
HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE MAY BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE LATER THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN
SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY MID-MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SUNDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...THE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 30KT OR POSSIBLY A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS TO THE
LAKE MONDAY MIDDAY.
THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH THE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
956 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Area of low clouds has been spreading northeast out of the lower
Ohio Valley this morning and was up to about I-70. Latest HRRR
guidance continues to suggest this overspreading much of the CWA
east of highway 51 into early afternoon, while areas further west
primarily deal with a steady stream of cirrus clouds from the
central Plains. Southerly winds already gusting 20-30 mph in areas
east of the Illinois River and that will continue into the
afternoon, boosting temperatures well into the 50s over the CWA.
Have sent some updated zones/grids to tweak the cloud trends for
today, and also to sharpen up the temperature trends for Sunday
and Sunday night with the strong cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Southerly winds have prevailed through the night bringing mild
conditions, at least compared to what occurred the past few
mornings across central through southeast Illinois. The persistent
southerly flow has resulted in a marked increase in the low level
cloud cover over parts of Arkansas this morning with a north-
northeast trajectory. Forecast soundings have indicated an
increase in low level moisture for the past several runs which
is being validated now over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
last several runs of the HRRR model has brought the clouds
northeast into about the eastern half of the forecast area by
early this afternoon. Surface dew points over extreme southwest
Missouri have risen into the mid and upper 40s early this morning
and expect the persistent 1000-850 mb theta-e advection and
moisture transport to bring the higher dew points and clouds
northeast into our area later today. Despite the increase in
clouds, temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid
50s north to the upper 50s, possibly 60 degrees over parts
of southwest Illinois this afternoon.
Models for the past several days have hinted at some light QPF
over parts of southeast Illinois with the significant moisture
transport into our area. However, not seeing much in the way
of lift with forecast soundings showing only the low level
moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion today and
tonight. Seems to be more of a setup for very light rain or
drizzle over parts of southeast and east central Illinois and
later this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
One more mild day across our area on Sunday before a strong
cold front and associated 1047 mb high settles across the
lower Great Lakes Sunday night and spends a few days early
next week, before slight warmer weather returns for the balance
of the forecast period.
The strong Polar cold front looks on track for mainly Sunday
afternoon along with light rain or drizzle chances just ahead
and behind the frontal boundary. Best chances appear to be over
the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly east of I-55, Sunday
afternoon. Other than the low level moisture trapped beneath the
rather strong inversion, not much moisture above, so looking more
for drizzle or some very light rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. As the colder air settles south, there may be a brief period
of some very light freezing rain or drizzle mainly over the I-70
corridor late Sunday night into the Monday morning commute. There
may be some very light ice accumulations over extreme southeast
Illinois just in time for the return to work and school Monday
morning.
Cold and dry conditions expected to settle over our area for
Monday through Wednesday. We may see some lingering light
precip Monday morning over the far southeast counties, but the
front should get shunted well south of our area by Monday
afternoon and evening ushering in some rather chilly temperatures
again across the entire area Monday night. Lows will dip into the
10 to 15 degree range over the north half of the forecast area
Tuesday morning with low to mid 20s common south. Quiet but chilly
temperatures will be the story through Wednesday morning before
we see a gradual moderating trend starting Wednesday afternoon as
the upper flow becomes more zonal over the lower 48. Southerly
return flow develops ahead of the next shortwave on Thursday
bringing in warming temperatures but also chances for
precipitation mainly from Wednesday night through Friday as a
series of weak impulse translate east in the zonal flow across the
center of the country.
With the flow deamplifying during this period, we are seeing some
timing differences with respect to the sensible weather associated
with these fast moving and relatively weak waves, especially
towards the end of the week. However, with a zonal flow pattern
seen over western Canada and medium range models not showing much
in the way of downstream blocking or buckling of the Polar jet, we
should average out above normal on temperatures in the Wednesday
through Friday forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
Scattered to broken high cirrus has advected over the TAF sites
and should remain over the area through most of the TAF period.
However, in response to some warm air and moisture advection from
the south, lower MVFR clouds are advecting northward toward the
parts of IL. NAM low level RH fields and cloud forecast timing from
the HRRR model suggest that most of the lower clouds will remain
in the south and eastern parts of the state, so should only effect
CMI this afternoon. So, will have scattered lower clouds at all
sites this morning and afternoon, but have a 4hr TEMPO group at
CMI for broken cigs this afternoon. The lower clouds will
dissipate early this evening, but cirrus will remain tonight.
Winds will be southerly through the period with gusts up to 25kts
possible during the daytime hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
111 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WIND IS STARTING TO
PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN WIDE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 50S
WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID 50S SEEMING LIKELY. THAT
SAID...THE CLOUD COVER DID NEED TO BE TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT
HANGING AROUND...MOST LIKELY UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS ITS MARCH
EASTWARD. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GOING AND UPDATE
THE ZFP WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FEATURE SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHILE SOME LOWER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH THIS ADVECTION...MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA...THOUGH HAVING A TOUGH TIME SEEPING INTO THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEW POINTS ARE BIT OFF THIS
MORNING AND HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER THEM AND BRING A MORE SLOWER
INCREASE TO MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS WELL...UPDATED
TEMPS FOR THEIR HOURLY TREND AND BRING TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE
QUICKER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS
UPDATE WILL NOT REQUIRE A NEW ZFP AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR NOW. WILL WAIT FOR TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO INDICATE WHEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND IF CLOUD COVER
NEEDS TO BE INCREASED A LITTLE EARLIER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT MORE EARLY ON AS CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AND HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE IN REACH EVEN WITH THE EARLIER CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE MILDER WEATHER AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO RETREAT THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECK OF 4-6KFT...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL SUSTAIN THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THE
CURRENT TRENDS...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TH FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY STAY
AROUND 50 WITH THE CLOUDS TOWARDS MIDDAY SLOWING DOWN THE RISE.
BY TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. OUR
NORTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE EDGE OF THIS EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND THUS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS
WITH BASICALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. ALSO WENT WITH A BUFFER
ZONE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THERE ARE NO REAL
SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER REGIME. IF ANYTHING...THE THREAT OF
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIGHT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY KEEP
MOST OF OUR WEEKEND MAINLY DRY. CLOUDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION
MARK FOR SUNDAY...WITH A MODEL BLEND PROVIDING A NICE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IF RAIN CHANCES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO RETREAT...PROVIDING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SUN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
ACTIVE AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN STATES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY NOW SURGING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A THREAT FOR A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MODIFY BUT MEANDER ABOUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD
INTO EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FALL DURING THE DAY. FORTUNATELY IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH BY THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS EASE
BELOW FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS CHANCE OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS
WARM BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ENDING THE WINTRY PRECIP THREAT
BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO
ONLY MAKE IT SOUTHWARD TO A JACKSON TO PIKEVILLE LINE AND ANY SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.
WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH...PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIP APPEAR LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST. FOR NOW...TEMPS SUPPORT
ALL RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PERIODIC
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS TO OUR NORTH MAY NOT BE HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS NOT GREAT BEYOND MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAINLY OVER EXTREME
EAST AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER A
CONSTANT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD NOW AS IT APPEARS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN IS A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. AN MVFR CEILING
DECK IS MAKING IT INTO THE WEST TAF SITES...MAINLY SME...LOZ...AND
SYM. WILL KEEP THIS CEILING WITH THESE LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ONLY EFFECT SYM AND THIS
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. A MILD DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND DROPS HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER AS WARM
FRONTAL MID CLOUDS CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY NOW
EXPECTED UNTIL STRATUS ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS JUST SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PRESENT AND OUR ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD
BE FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH THE STRATUS DECK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE/EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WE ACTUALLY HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT SEEING SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK MOVES IN LATER... WHICH HAS
BEEN A RARITY OF LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN HAS UNDERPERFORMED SO FAR AND
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LAKE FROM WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE PCPN HAS BEEN LIGHT SNOW BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THE PCPN MOVING EAST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 6AM. DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EARLY AS IMPACT FROM WHAT/S LEFT OF THE
PCPN SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ZONAL FLOW. NOT MUCH TOO IT BUT WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE GRIDS. BUFKIT SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT IN
SOUTH FLOW. ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIQUID.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM +8C TO -5C BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
THOUGH...LESS THAN 4K FT. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH NO BIG STORMS AND
ONLY A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SFC HIGH BRINGS FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVES EAST WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FOLLOW AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW
5000 FEET.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE QUESTION MARKS AS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FOCUS
SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF TIMING/LOCATION INCONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WHEN THE DECK DEVELOPS IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS MORE LIKE 03Z OR AFTER. A FEW SPOTS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER THE STRATUS BUILDS IN
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LITTLE APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MACZKO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. A MILD DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND DROPS HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER AS WARM
FRONTAL MID CLOUDS CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY NOW
EXPECTED UNTIL STRATUS ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS JUST SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PRESENT AND OUR ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD
BE FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH THE STRATUS DECK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE/EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WE ACTUALLY HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT SEEING SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK MOVES IN LATER... WHICH HAS
BEEN A RARITY OF LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN HAS UNDERPERFORMED SO FAR AND
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LAKE FROM WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE PCPN HAS BEEN LIGHT SNOW BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THE PCPN MOVING EAST OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 6AM. DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EARLY AS IMPACT FROM WHAT/S LEFT OF THE
PCPN SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ZONAL FLOW. NOT MUCH TOO IT BUT WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE GRIDS. BUFKIT SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER TONIGHT IN
SOUTH FLOW. ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT SO ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIQUID.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM +8C TO -5C BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
THOUGH...LESS THAN 4K FT. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH NO BIG STORMS AND
ONLY A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SFC HIGH BRINGS FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVES EAST WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FOLLOW AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW
5000 FEET.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE QUESTION MARKS AS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FOCUS
SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF TIMING/LOCATION INCONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT A STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FEET AND TOPS AROUND 4000 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING GOING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LITTLE APPRECIABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1140 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 CST SAT NOV 29 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO SLIGHTLY CHANGE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT
GROUND TRUTH REPORTS THIS MORNING. MOST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD REGION HAS BEEN LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...CAUSING A GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. HAD A QUICK
MOVING LIGHT TO MODERATE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MOVE THROUGH
EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR WHICH A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED...AND MAY RE-ISSUE AS OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. 12Z INL
SOUNDING AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WARM LAYER ALOFT WHICH
SUPPORTED A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...AND
OBSERVATIONS/SPOTTER REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE SUGGESTED MOST
PRECIP IS FALLING AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. STILL KEPT A
MENTION FOR SLEET IN AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ALL PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT.
ALSO UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE REGION. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE PRECIPITATION WAS
GENERALLY A MIXED BAG...WITH SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
INDICATES THE THREAT FOR MIXED FZRA/SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND THAT THE THREAT WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
CANADIAN AND U.S. RADARS SHOWED THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
SLIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SPREADING
INTO FAR NW MN. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW HIGH TEMPS WILL GO TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER...SO DID PULL BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST PLACES.
CONTEMPLATED ADDING MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE TO STRONG
CAA AND EFFECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL
NOT CLIMB MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG CAA VERY
COLD H85 TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL GET A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SEE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROP TO WHAT IS
LIKELY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN THE NORTHLAND THIS SEASON UP
TO NOW...ABOUT 28 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
MIXING LAYER THAT COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING. FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S
BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. WE MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE
BORDERLAND REGION SINCE THE WIND CHILLS FLIRT WITH 40 TO 45 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.
THE BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE MORE WNW WIND DIRECTION AND LOW HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN NW
WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHLAND
MONDAY...PROVIDING THE NORTHLAND WITH A COLD BUT SUNNY DAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LATE
WEEK WARMING TREND. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS
S/W TROF CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCALES IN FOG..AND
PERHAPS SOME -FZDZ. MIXED PRECIP WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
AT KINL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER DEEP
LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE. COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SWITCHING WINDS
TO THE WNW..AND CHANGING ALL PRECIP BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST LOCALES WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION..ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE
SUBSTANTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 8 12 -11 / 30 20 10 0
INL 26 -3 5 -22 / 60 20 10 10
BRD 33 6 10 -12 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 36 12 16 -9 / 20 10 10 10
ASX 36 15 18 -6 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1119 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 CST SAT NOV 29 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO SLIGHTLY CHANGE WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT
GROUND TRUTH REPORTS THIS MORNING. MOST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD REGION HAS BEEN LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...CAUSING A GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. HAD A QUICK
MOVING LIGHT TO MODERATE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MOVE THROUGH
EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR WHICH A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED...AND MAY RE-ISSUE AS OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. 12Z INL
SOUNDING AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WARM LAYER ALOFT WHICH
SUPPORTED A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...AND
OBSERVATIONS/SPOTTER REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE SUGGESTED MOST
PRECIP IS FALLING AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. STILL KEPT A
MENTION FOR SLEET IN AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ALL PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE REGION. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE PRECIPITATION WAS
GENERALLY A MIXED BAG...WITH SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
INDICATES THE THREAT FOR MIXED FZRA/SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND THAT THE THREAT WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
CANADIAN AND U.S. RADARS SHOWED THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
SLIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SPREADING
INTO FAR NW MN. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW HIGH TEMPS WILL GO TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER...SO DID PULL BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST PLACES.
CONTEMPLATED ADDING MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE TO STRONG
CAA AND EFFECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL
NOT CLIMB MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG CAA VERY
COLD H85 TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL GET A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SEE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROP TO WHAT IS
LIKELY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN THE NORTHLAND THIS SEASON UP
TO NOW...ABOUT 28 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
MIXING LAYER THAT COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING. FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S
BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. WE MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE
BORDERLAND REGION SINCE THE WIND CHILLS FLIRT WITH 40 TO 45 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.
THE BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE MORE WNW WIND DIRECTION AND LOW HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN NW
WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHLAND
MONDAY...PROVIDING THE NORTHLAND WITH A COLD BUT SUNNY DAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LATE
WEEK WARMING TREND. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO NW
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 8 12 -11 / 30 20 10 0
INL 26 -3 5 -22 / 60 20 10 10
BRD 33 6 10 -12 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 36 12 16 -9 / 20 10 10 10
ASX 36 15 18 -6 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
342 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...A MILD AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
AROUND TO PARTIALLY BLOCK SUNSHINE. RATHER DEEP AND OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EVIDENT TODAY WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT OVER THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A SHALLOW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THEREFORE...ANOTHER QUITE MILD...BREEZY AND
PARTIALLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE DECIDEDLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW LOW END CRITERIA WORTHY OF HWO MENTION.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED AND
THEREFORE AGAIN WELL SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...RANKING
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST SINCE THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY MILD. A MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ANAFRONTAL
(BEHIND THE BOUNDARY) AND THUS LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
ARKLAMISS DELTA COULD BE IN STORE FOR COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WHILE
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS REMAINS VERY MILD WITH ONLY SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE BETTER INROADS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT EVER CLEAR THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MS BEFORE
UPPER LEVEL MOTIVATION FOR PROGRESS WANES AND THE BOUNDARY STARTS
BACKING UP AND WASHING OUT BY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO LESSENING
UPPER LEVEL FORCING THE SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL
DWINDLE IN SIGNIFICANCE A GOOD DEAL AS TUESDAY EVOLVES.
LATER NEXT WEEK FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE WITH
ARCTIC AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS (BUT ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-20) WILL COME ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A MORE SOLID
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH OUR NEIGHBORHOOD IN THE MIDST OF THE
MENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...BKN LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT FAR SE THIS
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY
RUNNING AROUND 5K FT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SREF...LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE A TWO PRONGED INFLUX OF LOWER CIGS
LATER TONIGHT...ONE IN THE DELTA AND THE OTHER INTO ERN MS AND AL.
HAVE WENT WITH THIS SCENARIO IN 18Z TAFS SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KGLH AND THE 3 EASTERN TAF SITES. WITH S-SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUING SUN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH MIXING
THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG SUN AS TODAY SO DO
NOT EXPECT AS GUSTY OF WINDS. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 54 74 56 74 / 5 8 8 26
MERIDIAN 50 74 52 75 / 3 4 7 17
VICKSBURG 55 75 56 74 / 4 11 9 42
HATTIESBURG 53 76 55 76 / 4 6 4 10
NATCHEZ 56 74 58 74 / 4 10 7 32
GREENVILLE 57 74 57 62 / 7 12 18 59
GREENWOOD 57 72 57 67 / 4 12 16 50
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1015 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RELATED GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORNING CLOUDS AROUND
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT IS ALSO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THESES CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP
IN MOST CASES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE GUSTS AFTER MIDDAY OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BOOSTED A LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
LEFT RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
MODEL SNDGS SHOW THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING BACK GULF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS THIS MORNING. SOME STRATUS WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE LOUISIANA DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO RATHER PERSISTENT STRATO/CU IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS THROUGH TODAY WHILE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
WILL GO FROM THE 30S AND 40S TO THE 50S FOR THE SHORT TERM.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND. 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40
KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SHEAR FROM THE UPPER TO LOWER LEVELS
WHICH WILL REDUCING MIXING DOWN OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO DO NOT SEE ANY
PARTICULAR NEED TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
IN SPITE OF THESE CLOUDS...ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST GULF AIR WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY...AND UP TO
70 TO 74 MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE STRATUS AROUND
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S EAST TO THE UPPER 50S WEST AS WELL AS MID
TO UPPER 50S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AS WELL AS 10 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR NIGHTLY LOWS. FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IN THE SOUTH FROM 09Z UNTIL 13Z.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. /17/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT WONT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER FOR THE MOST PART AS WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE WEEK WILL START AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS AS IT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. A 1044MB SFC HIGH WILL BE TRYING TO
PUSH DOWN IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL HELP BRING IN SOME COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL ACTUALLY SKIRT OFF TO
THE EAST AND WE WONT SEE A DRASTIC COOLDOWN LIKE WE HAVE IN PREVIOUS
WEEKS BUT TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE LIKE SPRING THAN THE
BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. THE PATTERN OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL AND DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
ACROSS OUR NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CWA AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND COULD BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE GFS DOESNT
BRING IT THROUGH AND KEEPS THE SOUTH DRY AND UNDER A RIDGING
INFLUENCE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA.
REGARDLESS THIS SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
CWA. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...N LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT FAR SE THIS
MORNING. ONLY MVFR CIGS HOWEVER ARE IN THE FAR NW DELTA INCLUDING
KGLH WITH REST OF AREA RUNNING IN THE 4500-5500 FOOT RANGE. WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS AREA EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT SOMEWHAT AND CIGS TO LIFT...THOUGH KGLH MAY REMAIN MVFR INTO AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL THEN OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN AS S-SW WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MIX
DOWN TO PRODUCE OCNL 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY OVER DELTA WHERE WINDS WILL STRONGEST. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 55 72 57 / 5 7 9 11
MERIDIAN 69 52 72 54 / 3 7 8 10
VICKSBURG 72 56 73 57 / 7 8 10 12
HATTIESBURG 71 54 73 57 / 3 7 7 10
NATCHEZ 71 58 73 58 / 5 9 10 11
GREENVILLE 71 57 71 57 / 9 12 14 18
GREENWOOD 69 56 71 57 / 8 11 10 17
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/AEG/17/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
909 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. COUPLED JET REMAINS OVER AREA PER UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS
PROVIDING LIFT. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE LIFT INTO TONIGHT. INTENSE
FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND WAS OVER N MT THIS MORNING PER
RADAR/OBSERVED CONDITIONS. HRRR SHOWS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES S INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 00Z
TONIGHT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE BAND IS OVER SOUTHERN ROSEBUD
TO FALLON COUNTY. SO...GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...WILL INCREASE SNOW
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BAND. INCREASE WILL PUT JUDITH GAP AND WHEATLAND
COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM WARNING...NO CHANGES TO OTHER SNOW
HIGHLIGHTS.
FRONT MADE IT THROUGH KSHR AT 1414Z AND THRU KLVM AT 15Z PUTTING
AN END TO THE GAP FLOW WINDS. FRONT IS ALSO THROUGH FISHTAIL.
HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORIES FOR KLVM AND NYE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
DOING A POOR JOB IN KEEPING UP WITH THE WIND AND TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO
REPRESENT TODAY/S HIGHS AND STILL EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
A REMARKABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASSES IS ONGOING. AT 3AM...TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND
SHERIDAN...BUT ITS FALLEN TO 1 ABOVE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT
JUDITH GAP. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH HARLOWTON...LAUREL AND
CROW AGENCY AND IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS/FOG IS ALSO SURGING IN WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. THERE
ARE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR NW PARTS BUT FOR
THE MOST PART PCPN HAS NOT ARRIVED YET.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM SOON WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT BEARING DOWN. SW WINDS HAVE IMPRESSIVELY GUSTED OVER 50 MPH
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT SHERIDAN...WITH A PEAK OF 66 MPH IN
THE LATE EVENING. WINDS AT LIVINGSTON ARE ALSO GUSTING INTO THE
50S.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING PAC
NW TROF. COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST OR TO WESTERN MT
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR CWA AS WE MOVE INTO DAYTIME HOURS AND WE WILL SEE
SNOW INCREASE INITIALLY IN OUR NW THEN SPREAD TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTH OVER TIME. BILLINGS SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP THIS MORNING THEN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THEN TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER
TROF SLIDES EAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
A VERY POOR HANDLING OF SFC COLD FRONT...BUT PCPN ITSELF WILL BE
TIED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. DESPITE THE SEVERE LOW
LEVEL COOLING THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP WARMER LAYER THAT WILL
AID IN SNOW GROWTH AS THE ASCENT INCREASES TODAY...WITH SNOW
RATIOS CERTAIN TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE ENTIRE LAYER
EVENTUALLY TURNS MUCH COLDER AND WE LOSE THE DENDRITIC LAYER.
OVERALL A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL SEEMS IN STORE...HIGHEST
IN OUR WEST AND ALONG OUR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...WITH FEW INCHES
MORE OVER THE MTNS. IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO THIS MODEST SNOWFALL
COMBINED WITH SOME NORTH WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...POOR VISIBILITY
AND WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO.
DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE HARSHNESS OF THIS AIRMASS. IT IS ALREADY
8 BELOW ZERO AT CUT BANK AND MUCH COLDER THAN THAT IN CORE OF SFC
HIGH IN NORTHERN ALBERTA. WE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE FALLING BELOW
ZERO ACROSS OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING WITHOUT THE HELP OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER A CHILLY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WE WILL SEE CLEARING AND ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LEE SIDE TROFFING/WARM ADVECTION
COMMENCES. HAVE DROPPED EXPECTED TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS DOWN
SLIGHTLY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE PERIOD OF
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD BUT NOT TO A LARGE DEGREE. OVERALL...THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO PUSH EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW
CYCLONIC AND PUSH A BIT OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE ONE THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL ACT AS AN OVER RUNNING FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY HITTING THE AREA WITH
QPF FOR THIS OVER RUNNING FEATURE AND NOW THE ECMWF HAS JUMPED ON
BOARD. RAISED POPS FOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO JUMP UP TO LIKELY ON
FUTURE SHIFTS. THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT LOOK TREMENDOUSLY
COLD...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS.
WEAK ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALLOW FOR LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOW STRATUS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE VERY
LOW WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES...WITH A 1/4 MILE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE FROM LIVINGSTON
TO BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 013 905/011 002/033 023/036 018/036 023/044 027/044
+/S +0/B 01/B 25/J 11/B 21/B 11/B
LVM 032 905/015 004/033 026/037 021/039 027/043 028/043
+/S +0/B 01/B 25/J 12/J 22/W 11/B
HDN 015 904/012 902/033 020/036 014/037 018/043 022/044
9/S +1/B 01/B 25/J 11/B 21/B 11/B
MLS 015 906/010 904/030 017/028 009/031 014/037 020/040
9/S 80/B 00/U 24/J 11/B 11/B 10/B
4BQ 021 903/010 904/034 020/035 013/037 019/041 021/043
6/S 91/B 01/U 14/J 12/J 21/B 01/B
BHK 019 905/006 905/028 016/027 008/029 013/035 019/039
7/S 71/B 00/U 13/J 11/U 11/B 10/B
SHR 030 902/011 904/036 024/039 017/038 021/044 023/045
6/S +2/S 00/B 23/W 12/J 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 28-63.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 29>42-56>58-64>66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
HASTINGS HAS BROKEN THE RECORD HIGH BEFORE NOON! PLEASE SEE THE
RECORE EVENT REPORT /RER/ FOR THE DETAILS. 76F HERE AT THE OFFICE
AT 1132 AM.
WE ARE STILL SEEING THE VERY ODD TEMP ANOMALIES AS THE NIGHT
SHIFT POINTED OUT OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED. THIS IS WREAKING HAVOC WITH HOURLY TEMP CURVES.
CURRENT TEMPS WERE MERGED WITH FCST HIGHS (WHICH WERE RAISED MOST
LOCATIONS) IN AN ATTEMPT TO GET FCST TEMP CURVES BACK ON TRACK
WITH REALITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
WE HAVE EVALUATED THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING N AND W OF THE
TRI-CITIES FOR THIS AFTN. AM CONCERNED THAT THE NAM/GFS ARE
UNDER-FORECASTING WINDS BASED ON THEIR UNREALISTICALLY LOW FCST
MIXING HEIGHTS. THE RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WHAT WE THINK WILL
HAPPEN WITH A TYPICAL UNSTABLE BL DEVELOPING. THAT MEANS WINDS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. THAT IS A PROBLEM BECAUSE POOR
MODELING LOWERS CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A CHANCE WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
A SHORT LEAD-TIME RFW FOR VALLEY/SHERMAN COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY
BUFFALO AND DAWSON.
THE ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IS HIGH CLOUDS. THAT WILL INHIBIT
MIXING. IT ALSO SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING THAT THE ISOBARS ARE FAIRLY
SPREAD APART OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...IE A WEAK PRES GRAD.
WE DID NOTE LBF EXPANDED THEIR RFD UP TO OUR NW/N BORDER.
WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. THE FCST WILL BE UPDATED TO INCREASE
WINDS SOME AND THE FIRE WX FCST WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO INCREASE
MIXING HGTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY
COVER TO P/CLOUDY. HOURLY FCST DWPTS WERE ALSO RUNNING TOO HIGH
COMPARED TO REALITY. UPDATED FCST WILL POST SHORTLY WITH THESE
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS SPILLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY HOLDING DOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT OTHERWISE HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT. WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ALONG WITH A VERY
MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EXTREMELY
NICE FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.
WHILE A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION...CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE ABRUPTLY OVERNIGHT...AS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE OVER A
20C+ DROP IN TEMPS AT 850 BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD AIRMASS FORECAST TO REACH GRAND ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE VERY DENSE AND COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO RACE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
PRIOR TO DAWN SUNDAY MORNING...AND ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS DESPITE THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
WHILE THERE IS ONLY VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL
DATA...AND THE CLASSIC DRIZZLE SIGNATURE IS NOT EVIDENT IN PRECIP
FIELDS...DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM INDICATES A BIT OF LIFT IN THIS
LOWEST LAYER...WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SMALL DROPS OF MOISTURE. THAT SAID...LITTLE ICE ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED...AND DID NOT INSERT ANY QPF INTO THE FORECAST IN THE
FORM OF EITHER LIQUID OR ICE FOR THE TIME BEING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
TEMPERATURE WISE...AFTER BASKING IN NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH
FRIDAY AND TODAY...BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
ARRIVES RIGHT AWAY IN THE FORM OF A MAJOR CHILL-DOWN FOR SUNDAY-
MONDAY THANKS TO A SOUTHWARD-CRASHING ARCTIC FRONT. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BE HARD FOR FOLKS TO BELIEVE IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S WARMTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE AN INCREDIBLE 40-50 DEGREES
COLDER...AND ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS DRIVING DAYTIME WIND
CHILLS DOWN IN THE ZERO TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEB SIDE. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY COLD...BEFORE A DECENT-
REBOUND TO NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ENSUES FOR THE
TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING LIKE THE ONGOING
WARMTH FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS
THAT WILL FEEL BETTER THAN SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED TO
INTRODUCE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN ZONES FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY
NIGHT FORECAST "CLEAN" OF ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR AT LEAST ONE
MORE FORECAST CYCLE. ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THERE SEEM TO BE ENOUGH NEGATIVES AGAINST IT
TO KEEP IT OUT FOR NOW...AND LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE ONCE THIS
TIME FRAME GETS LESS THAN 24-36 HOURS AWAY. SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON
THIS REASONING. OTHERWISE LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE CURRENTLY DRY
FORECAST IS JUSTIFIED FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME...WITH THE
ONLY FORESEEABLE CATCH POSSIBLY BEING AROUND THE WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...WHEN THERE ARE HINTS THAT MAINLY OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD BE BRUSHED BY AN AREA OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN
KS/MO AND MAYBE FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. AT ANY RATE...THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY 4-7 TIME
FRAME KEPT ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES AT LEAST 50-100 MILES EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO THUS THE CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST.
AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO BE WORTHY OF INCLUSION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) DURING THESE 6
DAYS...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NONE. HOWEVER...AS USUAL THERE ARE A
HANDFUL OF CAVEATS/"CLOSE CALLS" THAT COULD EVENTUALLY COME INTO
PLAY...THE FIRST OF WHICH BEING IF IN FACT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
ENDS UP IN SUNDAY/S FORECAST. WIND-WISE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE WINDY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS/GUSTS APPEAR TO
LARGELY FALL A BIT SHORT OF 30 MPH/45 MPH RESPECTIVELY. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE ADVISORY-
CRITERIA OF -20. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEARS WATCHING FOR POSSIBLY MEETING AT LEAST
A NEAR-CRITICAL COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 25
PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH/20
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE ARE STILL A FEW
DAYS AWAY FROM GETTING A MORE DEFINITIVE HANDLE ON THIS...BUT OF ALL
DAYS NEXT WEEK TUESDAY PROBABLY WARRANTS THE CLOSEST WATCHING FOR
FIRE WEATHER.
NOW TURNING TO A MORE DETAILED LOOK AT THE DAILY WEATHER IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...OBVIOUSLY THE BIG STORY HERE IS A
RETURN TO LEGITIMATE WINTRY-COLD. BY SUNRISE...THE LEADING EDGES OF
THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA...PAVING THE WAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 20-25 MPH/GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TIME OF
SPEEDS AT LEAST 5 MPH HIGHER YET AS 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF AT
LEAST 3-6 MILLIBARS POUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY A PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND UPPER JET
STREAK TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. PRECIP-
WISE...ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE THAT HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY
OFFICIAL MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW ROGUE SPITS OF DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE AN OVERALL-LACK
OF DEEP LOW-LEVEL SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND
850MB/ROUGHLY 1KM...WHICH IS OFTEN MORE CONCERNING FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. INSTEAD IN THIS CASE...THE INITIAL SURGE OF LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT LEGIT DRIZZLE...WHILE AS SATURATION BRIEFLY DEEPENS TO
AROUND 850MB WELL BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE...THE VERY LOWEST
LEVELS START TO DRY OUT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PARTS OF
NORTHERN/WESTERN NEB OUTSIDE THE CWA MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED TO
OBSERVE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HOWEVER. AT ANY RATE...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPITS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
MAINLY BEFORE NOON...JUST DON/T FEEL ITS WORTH A FORECAST MENTION
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BECOME IMPACTFUL. OF
COURSE...LATER MODEL DATA AND/OR FORECASTER JUDGMENT MAY CHANGE
THINGS. BY LATER IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW
LEVELS BECOME COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
WOULD ABATE ANYWAY...AND INSTEAD POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW AS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF MODEST
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT MODEL DATA OVERWHELMINGLY FOCUSES THIS FLURRY
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST KS...WILL AGAIN OPT TO REFRAIN FROM A FORMAL MENTION
LOCALLY AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO RE-EVALUATE IF NECESSARY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT DAYTIME RISE
BUT NOT MUCH OF ONE...AND IF ANYTHING NUDGED DOWN HIGHS ANOTHER 1-3
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT RAW MET/MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED A
TOUCH TOO COLD GIVEN THAT THERE COULD BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES AVERAGING AT LEAST 10-15
MPH...SO STAYED JUST A BIT WARMER AND VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 7-13 DEGREES.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...ANY POSSIBLE CHANCE OF FLURRY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING BY THIS TIME AS THE ZONE OF MID LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD-SHIFT OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET
STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THE
DAY WILL START OUT WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 1045
MILLIBARS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO
THE IA/MN/WI AREA BY DAYS END AND WELL-EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...THE CORE OF THIS HIGH NEVER REALLY
PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...MONDAY WILL FEATURE
LIGHTER WINDS THAN SUNDAY AS INITIALLY NORTHERLY BREEZES GRADUALLY
TURN MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. GIVEN THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS AND LACK OF DEEP
MIXING...ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT AT-MOST
ONLY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT VERSUS SUNDAY...AND HAVE A RANGE GOING FROM
MID 20S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 20S/NEAR-30 SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY
NIGHT...A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS IN AND
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN STEADY TO SLIGHTLY-RISING TEMPS LATE IN THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ACTUAL LOWS...AIMING MOST OF
THE CWA RIGHT AROUND 15 DEGREES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 48 HOURS
CARRIES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STAYING DRY...UNLESS OF COURSE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MENTIONED ABOVE
HAPPENS TO ENCROACH ON SOME OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WED NIGHT PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. BY AND LARGE THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE MAIN STORY DURING THESE FEW DAYS. ON TUESDAY...STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 15+
DEGREE IMPROVEMENT VERSUS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AIMED BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S-UPPER 40S RANGE. HOWEVER ALREADY BY TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK
COLD FRONT (MUCH WEAKER THAN THE SUNDAY ONE) DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREA. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL AREA
CURRENTLY ONLY APPEARS TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR
HERE...HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW TICKS COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN
NORTHEAST ZONES AND HAVE A RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...FOR THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN
SURPRISINGLY-GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...WITH
GENERALLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER OR NEAR
THE CWA FROM THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL-GENERATED PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FOCUSES SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. CERTAINLY A SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THESE
TWO DAYS...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH
ARE PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON
BOTH DAYS...WITH FRIDAY POSSIBLY MORE FAVORED TO BREACH THE 50
MARK...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR CIRROSTRATUS CIGS AROUND 25K FT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR WITH 1500 FT CIGS BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THRU THE AIRPORTS IN THE 06Z-
08Z TIMEFRAME. ALL MODELS ARE NOT ON-BOARD WITH THESE MVFR CIGS
BUT USED THE SIGNALS FROM FCST SOUNDINGS AND THE FACT THAT MVFR
CIGS ARE UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT (OVER SD/MT/ND). N WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND G25 KTS AFTER FRONAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MVFR CIGS.
SUN THRU 18Z: MVFR CIGS PROBABLE THRU MOST OF THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-18Z. N WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW ANTICIPATED...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE DETAILED BELOW.
GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 29TH: 71F IN 1932
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY: 72F
HASTINGS NEBRASKA:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 29TH: 68F IN 2003
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY: 73F
DESPITE THE RECORD WARMTH TO END THE MONTH...A STRETCH OF VERY
COLD WEATHER EARLIER THIS MONTH WILL RESULT IN THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANKING NOVEMBER 2014 AMONG THE TOP TWENTY COOLEST
NOVEMBERS OF THE PAST 100 YEARS IN BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS.
THE COOLEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD FOR BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTING
OCCURRED IN 1985...WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1210 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY IN
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST ND. SOME HEAVY
SNOW REPORTED UNDER THE BAND AND RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED
IT WELL. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE BAND TO DIMINISH...HOWEVER
HAVE UPPED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR
WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING INCORPORATING LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS...MAINLY TO ADD
LOW POPS IN SOME AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED MAJORITY OF CWA AND JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST. FOR THIS UPDATE...FORECAST HOURLY TEMPS WERE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGH SO ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPS. TEMPS
AT 15Z RANGED FROM NEAR ZERO EXTREME NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEENS
SOUTH.
RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP BUT A FEW SURFACE OBS AND WEB
CAMS WERE SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST (BEACH AND
DICKINSON) AND ALSO NORTH. THEREFORE EXPANDED POPS TO COVER THESE
AREAS. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW. GLASGOW RADAR SHOWS AREA
OF PRECIP APPROACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE AND TWEAK POPS AS NEEDED WITH ADDITIONAL
UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR NOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...SOME POCKETS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND PATCHY FOG. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE GUSTING
TO 25 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VERY COLD AIR
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE FLATTENED BY
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MID
LEVEL IMPULSES INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. IMPULSE NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA WILL PUSH THROUGH MY FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL BETWEEN
NOW AND 13-15Z. MAINTAINED ELEVATED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER...TRIMMED FARTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST HR GUIDANCE
TRENDING MORE NORTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE SNOW BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX ALONG TO
SOUTH OF THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM ALOFT.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION MOVES OVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. LEANED AWAY FROM THE
ECMWF WITH ITS FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE MORE SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AXIS STARTING IN WEST-
CENTRAL ND AND EXPANDING EASTWARD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DEVELOPING SOUTH TODAY WITH TIME ALONG THE FROPA. MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALOFT SUBFREEZING BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER. AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH AND
CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW PUSH SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WILL END OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MY NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST. WITH CAA ONGOING
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE THE WINDS TAPERING OFF MUCH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN PRESSURE RISES SUBSIDE.
HIGHS FOR TODAY LIKELY ALREADY REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES SO WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE FORECAST WIND CHILLS
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUATION OF WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THROUGH ABOUT NOON ON MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE CHILLS WILL
MODERATE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS...BUT VERY
TEMPORARILY...AS A BITTERLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY MORNING FORCE
CHILLS BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM WILLISTON THROUGH JAMESTOWN. THOSE OUTSIDE...AND NOT PROPERLY
CLOTHED...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AT RISK FOR FROST
BITE IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. BECAUSE OF THE ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OUT OF
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...WILL NOT END THE ADVISORY AND KICK IT BACK IN
TO EFFECT...RATHER...WILL KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY IN THE LONG TERM...THE CENTER OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOCAL
RESEARCH STUDIES SHOW THAT THIS IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE TO HAVE THE BOTTOM DROP OUT OF THE THERMOMETER AT
BISMARCK. A BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SETS UP LATER MONDAY
BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT MEANS BRIEF
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
COULD ACTUALLY BE RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.
ANOTHER PIECE OF THE COLD AIR COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
PROLONGED SPELL OF WARMER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND GRACES US AS THE ARCTIC DOME RETREATS FARTHER NORTH INTO
CANADA.
NOTE THAT THE RECORD LOW AT BISMARCK FOR DECEMBER 1...MONDAY...IS
-23 FROM 1893. WE ARE FORECASTING TEENS BELOW FOR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THAT BOTTOM FALL OUT...AS IS POSSIBLE...THAT
WOULD BE A HECK OF A RECORD TO BREAK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ017>019-031>033-040-041-043-
044.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JNS