Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/21/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
938 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 937 PM EST...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM EDT...WITH A
LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL NOONTIME. THE AXIS OF THE INTENSE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS
NOW RIGHT OVER THE OLD FORGE AREA. THIS FITS WITH WHAT IS SHOWN IN
BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 4KM WFO BTV WRF. IN-CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LOCAL MODELS...THE 21/00Z KALB SOUNDING SHOWS A RATHER
DEEP SFC TO 700 MB DALR WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH A
STRONG WSW WIND ALOFT STEERING THE BAND AND ITS INLAND EXTENT.
THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE 3-KM HRRR INDICATING THE FLOW
VEERING...AND THE BAND PIVOTING S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN
06Z-12Z. WE ARE EXPECTING WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL FROM OLD
FORGE...EAGLE BAY...AND INLET NORTH AND WEST WITH 8-16 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WARNING AREAS EXPECT 6-12 INCHES.
THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AREA WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 6 INCHES. WE HAVE
RECEIVED SOME REPORTS ALREADY CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN PARTS OF
EXTREME WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CRUMBLE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AND THE NW FLOW TRAJECTORY FAVOR MULTI
BANDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND...SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
HAVE MAINLY ENDED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OUTSIDE OF
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.
COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND
SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.
AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF INITIALLY DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR THERE ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER EXITS TO THE EAST.
JUST SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL
BE SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION...BUT THE CLOUDS LOOK TO MAKE IT
IN...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHICH WILL BE DIRECTLY IN LINE FROM THE
LAKE ONTARIO BAND BY LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT BKN-
OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT LOOK TO OCCUR. W-NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WHILE
BKN-OVC CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCT OUT BY THE AFTN HOURS...AS
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
658 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 657 PM EST...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM EDT...WITH
A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL NOONTIME. THE INTENSE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS NOW IMPACTING
THE STILLWATER RESERVOIR AND BEAVER RIVER AREA...WITH SNOW RATES
EASILY IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. THE CORE OF THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FITS WITH WHAT IS SHOWN IN BOTH OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 4KM WFO BTV WRF. THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND
THE 3-KM HRRR INDICATING THE FLOW VEERING...AND THE BAND PIVOTING
S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. WE ARE EXPECTING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL FROM OLD FORGE...EAGLE BAY...AND INLET NORTH AND
WEST WITH 8-16 INCHES POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WARNING AREAS
EXPECT 6-12 INCHES. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AREA WILL RECEIVE 2
TO 6 INCHES. THE BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CRUMBLE SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND THE NW FLOW TRAJECTORY FAVOR MULTI BANDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND...SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
HAVE MAINLY ENDED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OUTSIDE OF
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.
COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND
SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.
AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF INITIALLY DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR THERE ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER EXITS TO THE EAST.
JUST SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL
BE SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION...BUT THE CLOUDS LOOK TO MAKE IT
IN...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHICH WILL BE DIRECTLY IN LINE FROM THE
LAKE ONTARIO BAND BY LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT BKN-
OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT LOOK TO OCCUR. W-NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WHILE
BKN-OVC CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCT OUT BY THE AFTN HOURS...AS
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FEATURE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE A WARM FRONT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, MARKED WITH DEWPOINTS AT
OR UNDER 15 DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD WITH THE AID OF TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FLURRIES. THE RGEM AND NAM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CHANCE. STILL OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TEMPERATURES
FALLING A LITTLE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING THEN
RISING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
FALLING SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNRISE. TOOK THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT BUT
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV AND MET GOING A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL INTO
THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING 40.
FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING, LIMITING THE
MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE
A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN
NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK
DETAILS...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.
THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW
NOW PROGGED OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT
D+5 IT/S TOUGH TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.
NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.
ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.
MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
909 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.UPDATE...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH/BOATING CONDITIONS LATE FRI THROUGH WEEKEND...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH WAS
PRODUCING AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WHICH HAD RECENTLY
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED. THIS ALLOWED
FOR A LAND BREEZE TO FORM WITH LIGHT TO WEAKLY WEST SURFACE FLOW
ALONG THE COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WAS INDICATED AND RADAR WAS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE BREVARD COAST. THE
TROUGH WAS JUST ONSHORE IN MARTIN COUNTY AS THE WINDS THERE HAD
VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WAS CAUSING A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WITH READINGS FROM 50 DEGREES AT LEESBURG AND
DELAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT STUART.
MANY PLACES FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOW. THE NORTH COAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST A LITTLE FURTHER COOLING TOWARDS UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE INTERIOR WITH JUST A
LITTLE ADDITIONAL COOLING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERALL THE CURRENT
MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD...THOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES CORRECT EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE A SMALL POP FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE DEPTH OF
ONSHORE FLOW IS SHALLOW BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE LOCAL WRF
GENERATES AN AREA OF PRECIP BUT KEEPS IT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TREASURE COAST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF
MARTIN COUNTY. THOUGH SKEPTICAL OF THE 30 PERCENT MOS POPS FOR
STUART...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CERTAINLY BE OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST SO WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF KVRB
FRI MORNING. NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE
MORNING ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND MAYBE EVEN AT SOME OF THE
INTERIOR TAFS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A LITTLE BIT OF AN EASING GRADIENT HAD OCCURRED IN
THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED. THE RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN BACK UP FRI MORNING...SO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND PROBABLY WILL TOUCH 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE GULF
STREAM...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER ALL OF THE WATERS FRI.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST THE GULF STREAM
BY LATE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE REACHES THE BEACHES OF SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WITH RECORD LOWS
LIKELY...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO
THE BEACHES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TINY AREA FROM
HILTON HEAD TO TYBEE ISLAND REMAINING A DEG OR TWO ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK AS OF 19/08Z. EVEN MERIDIAN/SAPELO ISLAND AND SAINT
SIMMONS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING--HIGHLY UNUSUAL ANY TIME
OF YEAR...MUCH LESS THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER. SURPRISINGLY...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF RECOUPLING OFF AND ON OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOTED ON VARIOUS RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE
MUST BE JUST ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING INDUCED BY 15-20 KT OF WIND
ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO INDUCE TRANSIENT POCKETS OF
RECOUPLING...WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THIS HAS HAD
SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THERMAL DECLINES SINCE LATE
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD REVERSE ITSELF CLOSER TO SUNRISE AS
THE CENTER OF ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE DRAWS CLOSER. ANY RELAXATION OF
THE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN PLACE. WILL MAINTAIN LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20/NEAR 30 AT THE BEACHES. THE
RECORD LOW FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND THE
SAVANNAH AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SOON.
NOTE...PRELIMINARY DATA SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM A FEW WEEKS EARLY SINCE A MULTI-HOUR
FREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. THIS
DECISION WILL BE MADE BY THE INCOMING DAY SHIFT AFTER FINAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE RECEIVED AND EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. A
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IF THE DECISION TO
END THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM EARLY IS MADE.
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A LARGE BATCH
OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT 250
HPA JET STREAK...WHICH STRETCHES NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH...SO SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. DESPITE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...FULL INSOLATION AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES...HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY END UP NEAR
OR MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
TUESDAY. THIS DUE IN PART TO A MUCH COLDER START TO THE DAY
COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LOW MID-NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST TIER TO
THE LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...MUCH CLOSER THAN THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS AFTER
SUNSET WITH ANOTHER HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S AT
THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 30S ALONG THE BEACHES. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOW PACKAGES SHOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 20S IN
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER STATIONS WELL INLAND...SO FURTHER
TEMPERATURE REDUCTIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE A
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO MODIFY EACH DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S
THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS
NEAR 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS UP TO 60-70 PERCENT OVER MOST
AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD TO START OFF THE
WEEK...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTS OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY...THEN
MID/UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY...WITH FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR
SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE AXIS OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID
60S ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY INTO MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY GO
VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO ALIGN
ITSELF RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES.
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES IN TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE INLAND.
HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE/BUILD OVER THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE WEEKEND AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK NEAR
25 KTS OVER ALL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE SEAS BUILD TO
6-9 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE COAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND
THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
SOON.
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 19TH...
KCHS...27 SET IN 1949 /ALREADY BROKEN/...
KCXM...31 SET IN 1903.
KSAV...27 SET IN 2008 AND PREVIOUS.
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 20TH...
KCHS...25 SET IN 1951.
KCXM...28 SET IN 1951.
KSAV...24 SET IN 1914.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
300 PM...COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER PUNCH OF
COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME SCATTERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FLURRIES
AND FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ONLY A DUSTING...AT THE MOST...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT IT
WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BLUSTERY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS BY
MORNING...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO.
STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 20S
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY TANK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME SUNSHINE AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
300 PM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY...FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
POSSIBLE VERY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BROAD WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN FALLING FRIDAY EVENING...FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER A WEEK AND A HALF OF MAINLY
SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND HIGH TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SURFACES
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET...BULK OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF OF BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE THE FREEZING LINE TO ABOUT THE I-80
CORRIDOR BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY SLOWER/COLDER
THAN THESE MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO
MID MORNING SATURDAY AND CONSIDERING WINDS ARE ALL SOUTHERLY
DURING THIS EVENT...WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MIGHT ARRIVE SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER. NEVERTHELESS...ANY AMOUNT OF ICING WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...SO AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...THESE
TRENDS WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP TIMING/DURATION.
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY...HIGHS MAY
REACH THE MID 40S BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WITH NO CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST. HOW DENSE IT BECOMES OR HOW LONG IT PERSISTS IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TURN NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO AS
LOW AS 973MB BY MONDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST WI AS SHOWN BY THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF. WHILE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR NO WINTER PRECIP
CONCERNS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE TRACK WILL BE IMPORTANT
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACH INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH EVENT TOTAL QPF FROM THE MODELS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AND
IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE FALLING ONTO FROZEN OR
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND. THUS...AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...
HYDRO ISSUES MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STRONG
WINDS AND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST...BUT THIS FAR SOUTH
VSBYS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET LOWER THAN 5 SM. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE
WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NON
ACCUMULATING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH LARGELY LOW END VFR
CONDITIONS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF NON ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MEDIUM THAT MVFR VSBY
SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT THAN VFR.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Breezy and cold weather will be the rule across central Illinois
tonight. 19z/1pm surface analysis shows cold front exiting into
Indiana, while ridge of high pressure builds into the Plains.
Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to create
W/NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Gustiness will
begin to subside toward sunset: however, with ridge axis staying
west of Illinois until Thursday, gradient will remain tight enough
to support winds of around 10 mph through the night. Clouds and a
few flurries will prevail early in the evening, with the big weather
question being how fast skies will clear later tonight. Widespread
cloud cover is currently evident on satellite imagery from Illinois
northwestward to the US/Canada border: however, several holes in the
overcast have developed upstream across the Dakotas/Minnesota. All
model guidance suggests clouds will begin to scatter this evening,
with mostly clear conditions expected overnight. Given current
satellite imagery and continued deep northwesterly flow, think this
is too fast. Have therefore gone with a slower clearing trend more
in line with the HRRR solution. End result will be cloudy skies
this evening, followed by gradual clearing overnight. Due to the
clouds and continued breeze, have gone with the higher end of
numeric guidance for lows tonight, with readings ranging from 14
degrees in Galesburg to around 20 degrees south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Moisture channel satellite imagery and the morning upper air shows
deep upper level trof over eastern US with main jet from central
Canada into the midwest. This upper flow will bring in another surge
of cold air, with cold surface high moving into region during the
day Thursday and Thursday night. With clear skies by Thursday night,
have lowered Friday morning lows some due to light winds and cold
airmass.
Main precipitation concern is for Friday evening and Friday night,
as overrunning precipitation develops from AR into MO ahead of
digging shortwave in the southwest US. Precipitation will reach
central IL Friday evening, so temperature forecast will be critical,
as warm air aloft will produce precipitation in form of rain.
A detailed look at the model surface temperature forecasts depicts
EUR warmest, GFS, and NAM coolest. Feel the warming temperatures
will be blend of GFs and NAM, as conditions will start off cooler
Friday morning, as lowered morning lows. Feel current forecast grids
a good compromise and so looks like pcpn will start in evening
Friday as light freezing rain, with the freezing line gradually
moving to the northeast overnight. Pcpn amounts still look to be
light, so impacts will be on the light scale.
Saturday pcpn will be rain, as overrunning pcpn continues to develop
and move into the region. Strongest dynamics look to be on Sunday,
as the shortwave system and surface low approach and move through
region.
Models are similar in the movement of system, with low center
tracking just west of the cwa Sunday, with front moving through area
and gusty winds. Vertical stacking of the upper low over Lake MI on
sunday night.
Cool conditions will conditions into midweek, as the upper low
gradually moves off and allows another cool high pressure area into
the midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Cold front has pushed east of the central Illinois terminals late
this morning, resulting in strong W/NW winds across the board.
Based on 12z forecast soundings and the latest upstream
observations, wind gusts will generally remain in the 25 to 30kt
range before gradually subsiding toward sunset. Even though winds
will drop off tonight, pressure gradient will remain tight enough
to support sustained winds of around 10kt through the entire
night. 17z/11am satellite imagery shows low cloud cover spilling
into central Illinois behind the departing front, with the leading
edge currently approaching the I-57 corridor. A narrow band of
MVFR ceilings are noted across the Illinois River Valley, but
these should gradually rise to VFR over the next couple of hours.
Have therefore included MVFR conditions at KPIA/KBMI/KSPI through
20/21z. After that, the big question will be how fast skies clear
tonight. Due to ample upstream cloud cover within the
northwesterly flow pattern, have trended toward the more
pessimistic HRRR solution. End result will be a slow clearing
trend after dark, with ceilings scattering out at KSPI by 03z and
further northeast at KCMI by around 06z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
151 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST...BUT THIS FAR SOUTH
VSBYS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET LOWER THAN 5 SM. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE
WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NON
ACCUMULATING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH LARGELY LOW END VFR
CONDITIONS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF NON ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MEDIUM THAT MVFR VSBY
SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT THAN VFR.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
135 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH
AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHT AND NON ACCUMULATING WITH NO SIGNFICIANT VSBY
REDUCTION...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DUSTING WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND GENERALLY NON ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM ON HOW LONG VISIBLITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AND LOW ON WHETHER CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 2000 FT.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH
AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHT AND NON ACCUMULATING WITH NO SIGNFICIANT VSBY
REDUCTION...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DUSTING WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND GENERALLY NON ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM ON HOW LONG VISIBLITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AND LOW ON WHETHER CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 2000 FT.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1007 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
MORNING SNOW SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR WITH MODERATE SNOWS
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THERE IS A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THAT HAS A
HISTORY OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW
LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO TIME THESE IN FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR
CONDITIONS. KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z...
RADAR SHOWS DECENT REFLECTIVY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA
BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE IMPEDING SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH BACKED OF SNOW FOR THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING MOSTLY
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER THAT BRINGS DOWN VSBY AND CIGS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE VFR. SSE WINDS
BCM WEST BY MID MORNING AND GUST TO ARND 25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND CIG FCST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBY
...MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
752 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
MORNING SNOW SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR WITH MODERATE SNOWS
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THERE IS A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THAT HAS A
HISTORY OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW
LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO TIME THESE IN FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR
CONDITIONS. KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z...
RADAR SHOWS DECENT REFLECTIVY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA
BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE IMPEDING SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH BACKED OF SNOW FOR THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING MOSTLY
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER THAT BRINGS DOWN VSBY AND CIGS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE VFR. SSE WINDS
BCM WEST BY MID MORNING AND GUST TO ARND 25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND CIG FCST.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
VSBY...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
555 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* FLURRIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTN.
* LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25 KT THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
RADAR SHOWS DECENT REFLECTIVY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA
BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE IMPEDING SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH BACKED OF SNOW FOR THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING MOSTLY
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER THAT BRINGS DOWN VSBY AND CIGS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE VFR. SSE WINDS
BCM WEST BY MID MORNING AND GUST TO ARND 25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND CIG FCST.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER VSBY AND CIGS WITH HEAVIER SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* -SN MOVES IN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR VSBY AT FIRST. VSBY
DROPS TO LIFR BY 12Z.
* MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANY SNOW..AND MAY SEE CIGS DROP TO IFR.
* -SN TAPERS TO FLURRIES BY MID MORNING.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN MID MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAX GUSTS IN THE AFTN WILL BE ARND 25 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW AND LOWER CIGS WITH IT. SW WINDS WILL BECOME SSE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETURN TO
SSW. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE TAF AS IT ALL LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE. SNOW MOVES IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY ARND 12Z. AT LEAST IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE VSBY. CIGS WILL ALSO
COME DOWN WITH THE SNOW AND HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
VERSUS IFR GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING BUT FLURRIES
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SLOWLY RISE AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS SET UP WITH MAX GUSTS ARND 25 KT. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND LOWER CIGS & VSBY...MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE IFR WITH SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX EARLY THEN BECOMING RAIN. IFR
LIKELY.
SUNDAY....RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1009 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.
AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS. I AM
CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT DIURNAL
WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP. ANY
FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.
AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. 12-18 KFT
AGL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BOTH TERMINALS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TODAY. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER SW
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ALL OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS BETTER BL MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF KMCK. THOUGH UPDATED SNOW
FIELD APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT THAN 00Z...I STILL DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING VFR. I HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK TAF DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.
AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1227 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WITH SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PLACING EASTERN KY UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
FLOW TODAY. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING MID TO HI CLOUDS ERODING OVER
CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING AS THEY APPROACH THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE INVOF OF NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED AS CURRENT TRENDS
COVERED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A
RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENTLY READINGS
ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH GENERALLY ON
THE WANE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...
AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHT PCPN
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL
CONCERN...BUT ONE WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR
THEM OUT...HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OF THE WX
COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CAN EXPECT INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MOVING IN. WITH BOTH DRY AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S ONCE MORE. LUCKILY...WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO DON/T EXPECT THE WIND CHILL FACTOR TO BE MORE
THAN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WHAT IS OF CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD BE LINGERING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT...TRAPPING A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS FROM THIS...COULD BE LOOKING AT A FREEZING FOG EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUING TO INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE 50S AS
WE HIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
POSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY...WITH
A WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHER CONCERNS FOR FOG OR FREEZING PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UL PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. UL RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWRD OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A
BROAD UL TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. THE UL TROF
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WX PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT LOWER LEVELS... LL MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE IT IS QUICK MOVING...THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN TERMS OF THE
GRIDS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE LOWS TRACK AND HOW IT
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS THE SFC
TROF SLOWLY MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT...WITH BULK OF CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SITES.
MVFR IN CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFT 12Z TO VFR AFT 15Z. WINDS CONT FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TODAY TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AFTER
FROPA WITH A TURN TO MORE TOWARD THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/JVM
AVIATION...JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...T...AND TD
ONES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THIS CAPTURES THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS CURRENTLY AS WELL AS THE MILDER RIDGES AND
SPOTS WEST OF I-75. HAVE SENT THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A
RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENTLY READINGS
ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH GENERALLY ON
THE WANE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...
AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHT PCPN
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL
CONCERN...BUT ONE WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR
THEM OUT...HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OF THE WX
COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CAN EXPECT INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MOVING IN. WITH BOTH DRY AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S ONCE MORE. LUCKILY...WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO DON/T EXPECT THE WIND CHILL FACTOR TO BE MORE
THAN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WHAT IS OF CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD BE LINGERING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT...TRAPPING A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS FROM THIS...COULD BE LOOKING AT A FREEZING FOG EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUING TO INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE 50S AS
WE HIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
POSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY...WITH
A WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHER CONCERNS FOR FOG OR FREEZING PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UL PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. UL RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWRD OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A
BROAD UL TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. THE UL TROF
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WX PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT LOWER LEVELS... LL MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE IT IS QUICK MOVING...THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN TERMS OF THE
GRIDS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE LOWS TRACK AND HOW IT
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS THE SFC
TROF SLOWLY MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER 00Z A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS SYSTEM...VCSH IS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS...AS CIGS DROP INTO
THE MVFR RANGE WITH IFR POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH INCREASING STRENGTH AFTER
15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THEY START TO
TURN TO MORE TOWARD THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
410 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A
RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENTLY READINGS
ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH GENERALLY ON
THE WANE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...
AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHT PCPN
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL
CONCERN...BUT ONE WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR
THEM OUT...HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OF THE WX
COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CAN EXPECT INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MOVING IN. WITH BOTH DRY AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S ONCE MORE. LUCKILY...WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO DON/T EXPECT THE WIND CHILL FACTOR TO BE MORE
THAN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WHAT IS OF CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD BE LINGERING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT...TRAPPING A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS FROM THIS...COULD BE LOOKING AT A FREEZING FOG EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUING TO INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE 50S AS
WE HIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
POSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY...WITH
A WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHER CONCERNS FOR FOG OR FREEZING PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UL PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. UL RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWRD OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A
BROAD UL TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. THE UL TROF
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WX PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT LOWER LEVELS... LL MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE IT IS QUICK MOVING...THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN TERMS OF THE
GRIDS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE LOWS TRACK AND HOW IT
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS THE SFC
TROF SLOWLY MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AND THICKEN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AFTER 00Z A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND A VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THEY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING INTENSITY
AFTER 15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MAKING FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE
VALLEYS THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CURRENTLY READINGS ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 1O DEGREES IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...
MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH IN GENERAL ON
THE WAN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS. WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGH
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE
OF GENERATING PCPN FROM THE SMALL LIFT PRESENT WITH THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DEPTH OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL CONCERN...BUT ONE
WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR THEM OUT...
HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR THE
WX COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR NW COUNTIES. IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO
WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID TO FALL...BUT SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE NEAR
FREEZING AROUND DAWN SATURDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN.
DURING THE WEEKEND MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FLOW NORTH AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TX ON SATURDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS NE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW
LOOKS TO BE DOWNSLOPE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY. THIS WOULD LIMIT OUR
DESTABILIZATION...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRYING INFLUENCE AND RESULT IN RAIN. THE LOW
AND ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT OUT INTO CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THE LOW DOES NOT ARRIVE HERE UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER LARGE VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS TOWARD US IN A LARGE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT. EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...WE WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT WITH POOR CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OR PLACEMENT AT LONG RANGE. THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP A POP IN
OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AND THICKEN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AFTER 00Z A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND A VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THEY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING INTENSITY
AFTER 15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTXK WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HAS INFLUENCE. LATER OVERNIGHT
THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WILL RETURN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACH
OFF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF
KELD AND KMLU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER CEILINGS AND LEAN TOWARD
VFR INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REMAINING SITES OVER EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
HOLDING ON TO THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LONGER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 54 67 53 71 60 / 50 50 40 60 90
MLU 48 67 49 72 59 / 40 40 20 30 90
DEQ 49 61 52 68 55 / 50 60 60 70 90
TXK 52 63 52 68 58 / 50 60 50 60 90
ELD 47 61 50 69 57 / 50 50 40 50 90
TYR 57 68 56 69 57 / 50 60 50 80 90
GGG 56 68 55 70 58 / 50 60 50 70 90
LFK 57 70 56 71 59 / 50 60 30 70 90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1244 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1006MB LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS/CENTRAL MISSOURI.
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING AN
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MICHIGAN...WITH ENHANCED RADAR
RETURNS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME DECENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FORCE A CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
2-3MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING FRONT TO PUSH IN
TO WESTERN LOWER IN THE 18Z-19Z TIME FRAME. AS IT DOES...EXPECT
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO GET PUSHED INLAND ALONG
THE US-31 CORRIDOR. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE NARROWER LAKE CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO EXPAND AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS...FOCUSING SNOWFALL INTO WESTER MACKINAC
COUNTY. SO "TODAY" ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT PLN/TVC/MBL THROUGH
TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT APN THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY
TRANSITION TO PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1148 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1006MB LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS/CENTRAL MISSOURI.
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING AN
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MICHIGAN...WITH ENHANCED RADAR
RETURNS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME DECENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FORCE A CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
2-3MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING FRONT TO PUSH IN
TO WESTERN LOWER IN THE 18Z-19Z TIME FRAME. AS IT DOES...EXPECT
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO GET PUSHED INLAND ALONG
THE US-31 CORRIDOR. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE NARROWER LAKE CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO EXPAND AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS...FOCUSING SNOWFALL INTO WESTER MACKINAC
COUNTY. SO "TODAY" ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE S/SW TODAY AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW...AND WILL ENHANCE ONGOING S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN...THE STRAITS AND
MACKINAC COUNTY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF
LIFR/IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
624 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE S/SW TODAY AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW...AND WILL ENHANCE ONGOING S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN...THE STRAITS AND
MACKINAC COUNTY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF
LIFR/IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
346 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
W/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TARGET THE
TIP OF THE MITT AND THE STRAITS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
TO THE S/SW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
WAVE OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOW FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...AND
WILL ENHANCE ONGOING S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN...THE STRAITS AND MACKINAC COUNTY.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1219 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.
SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.
TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.
ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED ONCE AGAIN
IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 24 HOUR /12IN OR
MORE/ WARNING CRITERIA IF BANDED PRECIP STAYS OVER E ALGER AND N
PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY. WILL NOT HOIST ANY NEW HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING ADVISORIES OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LES GOING...AS NOTED ABOVE...BEHIND THE
EXITING SFC LOW OVER N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS THROUGH
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH
EXITS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
AT THAT POINT WE WILL BRIEFLY SAY GOODBYE TO OUR COLD WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG WAA WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W /FROM A SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER ONE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE S PLAINS/. LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
30S SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL LOW OVER MANITOBA
WILL SKIRT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC
RIDGE ERODING ACROSS UPPER MI.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE /OR MORE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN IF THE HIGHER QPF LIKE THAT FROM THE 18/12Z
ECMWF PAN OUT. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST...SO WILL ONLY ADD THE MENTION
FOR NOW AND WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PRECIP /FREEZING DRIZZLE/.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF
THE S STREAM LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ND/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THE S LOW TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE MI/ILLINOIS BY 00Z
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS E UPPER MI/W LAKE HURON BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. HOW MUCH OF THAT FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN/OVER
OUR SNOW PACK IS IN QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE OVER KIWD AND KCMX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW DROPPING INTO THE REGION. WHILE KSAW CURRENTLY
VFR...THE LOWER CIGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN LATE OVERNIGHT. SNOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH
VISIBILITIES BORDERLINE IFR AT KIWD AT TIMES. KSAW VISIBILITIES TO
STAY MVFR WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AT KIWD DUE TO DIMINISHED FETCH BUT INCREASED
FETCH...GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES AT KCMX TO PRODUCE
IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING THERE.
LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE IN THE
FORECAST AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT KIWD AND KCMX WHILE
KSAW CIGS DO RISE AS DOWNSLOPE INCREASES AS WINDS SHIFT WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
821 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
.UPDATE...
EVENING ANALYSIS INDICATES S/WV IN WV IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH ERN OK
INTO NW AR AND DEEP UPPER H5 TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS/1026MB SFC HIGH
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT THIS S/WV TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO
THE E INTO NRN MS TONIGHT...AIDING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN THE REGION. THIS WILL
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE NW DELTA AND
INDUCE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE N THEN MORE WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TONIGHT.
ONLY MADE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. LOWS LOOK GOOD
OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE E/S DUE
TO LIGHT FLOW BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND HRRR INDICATING IT LATE
IN THE S...LEFT OUT OF THE WX GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR IN FOG AT GLH/MEI/HBG BY
21/09Z...BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR BY 21/15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. /26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WAA BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GULF COAST
COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT TO
OUR WEST TONIGHT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING TO MOISTEN
OUR AIRMASS ENOUGH TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN AND MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOW POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. THE
REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WILL BE DRY. THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING THEN TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS >1030MB HIGH WILL BECOME OUR DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
INTO SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRIER EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
OUR CWA AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND STARTED TODAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. /22/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG
TERM REMAINS THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THIS MORE SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OCCURRING OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF BUT SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED OVER
OUR WHOLE CWA. THIS LATEST THINKING HAS BEEN UPDATED IN THE HWO.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION: MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ZERO IN
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND MOST
LIKELY BRING AN INTENSE QLCS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL
INSTABILITY WITH A NEUTRAL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST IN THE
PRE-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS...BUT WIND SHEAR AND LIFT WILL BE VERY
STRONG AS IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY DIGS AND BUCKLES
BEHIND THE SYSTEM LEADING TO A STRONG TROPOSPHERIC UNDULATION/PV
INTRUSION FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. AS THIS
HAPPENS...0-3KM SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE QLCS IF THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE.
MOREOVER...THE EXPERIMENTAL VERSION OF THE GFS SHOWS LESS COASTAL
CONVECTION THAN THE OP GFS WHICH SUPPORTS GREATER INLAND INSTABILITY
AND A MORE ROBUST QLCS. THE GFSX HAS PROVEN TO BE SUPERIOR RECENTLY
WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENTS IN THE ARKLAMISS AND WOULD SUGGEST
LEANING IN ITS DIRECTION. THE BOTTOM LINE: THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WARRANTS A CONTINUATION HWO/GRAPHIC
HIGHLIGHTS IN SPITE OF MEAGER INSTABILITY OUTPUT. CAN SEE WHERE WE
MAY START TO SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE (FROM HIGHER
THREAT TO LOWER THREAT) ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF JUST A
BIT MORE.
BEYOND THIS EVENT...DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 44 68 46 72 / 9 10 7 14
MERIDIAN 40 68 40 70 / 6 5 6 12
VICKSBURG 45 69 47 73 / 14 15 10 18
HATTIESBURG 41 70 45 70 / 4 3 4 30
NATCHEZ 47 68 50 73 / 9 10 7 37
GREENVILLE 46 65 47 70 / 31 32 19 14
GREENWOOD 45 66 47 71 / 22 22 12 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/26/22/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
338 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT MILES CITY. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND MILES
CITY...BUT ONLY HAVE VCFG IN THE TAFS. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
00/B 00/B 13/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
00/N 00/N 14/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
00/B 00/B 03/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
00/B 00/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 22/J 32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
00/B 00/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 23/J 32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
00/B 00/B 01/B 33/J 22/J 23/J 22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
00/B 10/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 23/J 33/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
FROM 22Z TO 00Z THE LAKE SNOW BANDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEGUN TO VEER WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SNOW
BANDS TO COME ASHORE OVER NW PA AND THE SNOW BELT NE OF CLE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATION THUS FAR. LES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED ABOUT 5C IN PLACES WHICH SOMEWHAT CORRESPONDS WITH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN THE 30-35 DBZ RANGE. WITH SUNSET THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW BANDS TO
BECOME MORE UNIFORM. KCLE RADAR HOURLY SNOW ACCUMULATION INTENSITY
HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY INTO ASHTABULA HAVING RATES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES PER
HOUR. THESE RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ACARS SOUNDINGS NEAR CLE SHOW THE INVERSION
HEIGHT FROM 6500 TO 7000 FT WHILE THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING HAS THE
UPSTREAM INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 7300 FT. THIS INVERSION HEIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT ALTER THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECAST MUCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WX HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
MICHIGAN...WITH THE START OF THE BANDS NOW INVOF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS HAVE BACKED JUST A BIT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS VEERING THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE. CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
IS THAT WHILE THE HRRR BRINGS THE BAND ONSHORE THE INTENSITY ALSO
DECREASES BEFORE NEW BANDS SET UP IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOCAL MODELS HOWEVER DEVELOP MORE LIFT/RADAR RETURN RESULTING IN
BETTER SNOW TOTALS. BELIEVE THAT WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL LIFT AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BANDS
OUTCOME WILL BETTER RESEMBLE LOCAL MODEL FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT NOT MUCH MORE THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY.
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH DEVELOPED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.
IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012-
013.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
162>164.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1125 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY WILL OCCUR TODAY AT MOST SITES...WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND AFTER THAT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE INITIALLY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH A LOW END VFR CIG AT KMLC AND KFSM AFT 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES IF NEED BE.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
FRINGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS MOVING SOUTH. THUS...THE WIND
SHIFT AND ANY COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO LITTLE AND
TOO LATE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...THE COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT AS WE SPEAK.
THUS...THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...NUDGING UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. NO OTHER NOTICEABLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE COLDER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
WEAK WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. THAT SAID...FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS SUGGESTS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
MODEST WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
1000-850MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE SWRN STATES FRIDAY AND INTO TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-44.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS VERY MUCH IN DOUBT
AS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 29 54 40 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 55 30 55 41 / 0 0 10 40
MLC 56 31 59 47 / 0 0 10 40
BVO 52 24 53 36 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 52 23 50 38 / 0 0 0 30
BYV 52 24 50 36 / 0 0 0 30
MKO 55 28 55 42 / 0 0 0 40
MIO 49 23 51 36 / 0 0 0 30
F10 55 30 56 44 / 0 0 0 40
HHW 57 33 60 49 / 0 0 0 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
955 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
FRINGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS MOVING SOUTH. THUS...THE WIND
SHIFT AND ANY COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO LITTLE AND
TOO LATE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...THE COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT AS WE SPEAK.
THUS...THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...NUDGING UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. NO OTHER NOTICEABLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE COLDER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
WEAK WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. THAT SAID...FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS SUGGESTS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
MODEST WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
1000-850MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE SWRN STATES FRIDAY AND INTO TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-44.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS VERY MUCH IN DOUBT
AS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 29 54 40 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 55 30 55 41 / 0 0 0 40
MLC 56 31 59 47 / 0 0 0 40
BVO 52 24 53 36 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 52 23 50 38 / 0 0 0 30
BYV 52 24 50 36 / 0 0 0 30
MKO 55 28 55 42 / 0 0 0 40
MIO 49 23 51 36 / 0 0 0 30
F10 55 30 56 44 / 0 0 10 40
HHW 57 33 60 49 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WI. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP AND HRRR TO SOME DEGREE INDICATE WEAK OMEGA IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FALLING UPSTREAM IN THE LA CROSSE AREA SO SEEMS THIS
LIFT IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN CWA AND
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
UPSTREAM OBS IN THE LA CROSSE AREA INDICATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. FORCING FOR ANY LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES...IS MINIMAL. THINK SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KMSN WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT EASTERN TAF SITES. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
NOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO LESS THAN 10
MB IN THE 780 TO 620 MB LAYER...BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME...
ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES EAST OF THE AREA. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR
COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN A 7 THOUSAND FOOT DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS MORNING.
THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BRISK WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ELONGATED/SHEARED VORT
ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED WITH 925 TEMPS
-13 TO -15C WITH 20-25 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. MOST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECTING A BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WAY BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO IA
THROUGH SRN IL BY DAYS END.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER
BUT COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING
SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS. THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS MODERATE
TO -3C TO -6C. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE MID 20S. THE WAA
REGIME CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MODELS DELAYING PRECIP
ARRIVAL.
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MIXY PRECIP DUE THE WARMING
ALOFT AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPS SLOWER TO MODERATE. SO AFTER 6Z
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WILL BE THE WINDOW OF CONCERN AS ALL PRECIP
TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND LACK OF SUSTAINED SATURATION IN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE BEARING SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW MILD TEMPS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME AREAS...ESP IN THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 40.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
REACHES EITHER NRN IL OR SE WI BY 00Z MON. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING SMALL POPS GOING IN THE EAST FOR NOW...PER SUPERBLEND
POPS. GFS SHOWS DRY WX WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS JUST A SMIDGE OF
QPF AROUND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z AT MADISON...AND 17Z AT THE EASTERN
SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CATEGORY. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SM/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
COMPLIMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY MODEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS LATE THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER MTNS AT THAT TIME WITH A ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE REGION BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL INITIATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THAT EVENING...A PRECURSOR OF MORE WIND TO COME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
STARTING OFF SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. AFTER A
FAIRLY WARM DAY SATURDAY...GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 0
TO+2C SATURDAY AT NOON...DOWN TO -8 TO-10C SUNDAY MORNING. GOING
TO BE PRETTY WINDY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB WINDS PRETTY CLOSE TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. 700MB
CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...STARTING OFF AROUND 990MTRS SATURDAY MORNING...EASING
TO 60MTRS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS
AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY.
LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE JET DIVES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO. 700MB WINDS EASE TO
20-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDY AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
PANHANDLE WHERE 850MB WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 35-40KTS THROUGH
THE DAY.
A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER WIND EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERSISTING INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN WYOMING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRAGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT WEST IN CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES...700MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY 50+KTS MONDAY
MORNING. THEN EASE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT 60 TO
80 MTR HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60KTS MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND REALLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE. GFS WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 70KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH 90+MTR 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENTS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
80KTS OVER LARAMIE AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS NEAR
120MTRS. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HEADLINES IF THIS COMES
TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT FROM WEATHER THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. NEED TO WATCH THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LAYS OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE LOW
CLOUDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KCDR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WEATHER FACTORS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL. BY LATE SATURDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO AREAS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
938 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT STRONG THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND IN THE ARLINGTON AREA. GUSTS OF 35 TO
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THESE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE
UPPER JET WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN WEAKENING OVERALL THROUGH AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
SATELLITE PICS SHOW STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STEADILY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BL RH PROGS SHOWING
LLVL CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE LLVL CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. BROADSCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING JET WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES MINIMAL TODAY WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PINE RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND BECOME MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE ON THURSDAY WITH H7 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND
-1C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S OUT WEST. NAM DOES SHOW THE
STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE PINE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS IF THE STRATUS INDEED PERSISTS. GFS AND WRF BOTH PUSH
THE LLVL CLOUDS TO THE EAST LATER TODAY THO...AND WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER AND MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL CARRY WITH IT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE WEST TO EAST WITH THE WAVE...BUT
LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
MIDLEVEL ENERGY...MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL FOCUS BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...WITH TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PEAKING IN THE 50S AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS AND PRODUCING A LEESIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...ONE FINAL MILD DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE A
WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LEE TROUGH...WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AIDING IN
WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE. IF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY...
THICKNESS...IS LIMITED...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL
INTO THE 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WEST
OF I-25. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COPIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE ZONES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THERE...DRY
ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY...RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A MODERATELY STRONG PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE QPF IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO...WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. LOOKS WINDY PER
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS.
MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOW MACHINE WILL CONTINUE IN MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME TYPE OF LONG TERM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THERE. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH DOWNSLOPE WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. AS MENTIONED BY THE TUESDAY LONG
TERM FORECASTER...WE MAY SEE STRONG WINDS THIS DAY PER PROGGED
SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT FROM WEATHER THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. NEED TO WATCH THOUGH
THE LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LAYS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
KCDR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET WITH H25 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS AROUND
40N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS IMPINGING ON THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A PORTION OF THE JET IS DIVING SOUTH
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO MEXICO TODAY BEFORE
TURNING EAST AND MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ALBERTA INTO
MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY, AND FALLING PRESSURES IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN KANSAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY NOON AND DISSIPATE IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER FROM THE SURFACE CYCLONE INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FLOWING ACROSS TEXAS OVER
THE WARM FRONT, AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS WAS
EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE
AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE MOIST TONGUE ADVANCES OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR COVERING
KANSAS. THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
THE HRRR SOLUTION OF KEEPING MOST OF THE STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
SEEMS REASONABLE AND LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS COOL, WHILE WARM AIR OVER THE STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH MIXING. AS SUCH, THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
ERODE AND PROBABLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN WESTERN KANSAS,
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY WILL REDUCE
INSOLATION A BIT. HIGHS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK PROBABLY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE LOWER 40S. THE MOIST LAYER APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE IS MINIMAL.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES, AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE MOIST, COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FROM THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
STARTING WITH SATURDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH LOWER LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE BARBER COUNTY AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL WARM UP ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL PROGGED 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +10C TO
+12C ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS. THEN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, BRINGING SOME LOWER TO MID CLOUDS WITH IT AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE, AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE HAYS AND LARNED AREAS, AND INTO THE MID 50S DOWN
SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART, AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A COOL DOWN, WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH
OF I-70; A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW FROM SCOTT CITY TO PRATT; AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO DODGE CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
THANKSGIVING, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RATHER COLD. MAX TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S IN THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS
AREAS, THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F DEGREES FROM LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S
DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. IN THE SNOW AREAS, ONLY
0.2 TO 0.3-INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS, AND THEN TAKE A PLUNGE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
.AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN WYOMING
INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW
CENTERED WEST OF WICHITA FALLS, TX WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY NOON AND DISSIPATE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING, AND STRATUS
WITH BASES BLO010 CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO DDC 12-14Z AND INTO
HYS BY 15Z. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WITH LOCAL VSBYS NEAR 1 MILE CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM 12-14Z. THE STRATUS GRADUALLY WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 010-020 BY 21Z. PATCHY FOG MAY
REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 31 60 37 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 53 26 61 33 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 56 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 53 28 62 34 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 45 28 58 37 / 0 0 10 10
P28 45 34 60 44 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUTHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.
REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.
SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.
JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.
WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014
FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN150-250. WINDS WILL MEANDER FROM SSE TO THE S AT 5-10KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BECOMING SSW 5-10KTS AFT 07Z.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 09Z WITH BKN150-200...THEN 5SM IN
FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. AFT 15Z FRIDAY...SCT-
BKN150. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY 15Z THEN SW BY 00Z
SATURDAY AROUND 5KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
REST OF TONIGHT:
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DIFFERENTIALS ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD REMAIN
8-13F IN NEARLY ALL AREAS AND WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION EXTREMELY
LIMITED AT 11 PM. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
OK AND AR AND ARE MIGRATING V-E-R-Y S-L-O-W-L-Y NORTH. RUC & HRRR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LATER ARRIVAL OF STRATUS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS UNTIL AROUND 5 AM. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED ALL FORECASTS
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY DRIZZLE TIL AROUND 5 AM. THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKEWISE DIMINISHING (CERTAINLY THRU
6 AM). REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS A CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS
FAR AS TIMING GOES, IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF DRIZZLE WILL BE 08-10Z
TIME FRAME ALONG/SOUTH OF KINGMAN-WICHITA-CHANUTE LINE. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DRIZZLE, AS IT MOVES NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE ANYWHERE
FROM 28 TO 31F. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE A VERY LIGHT GLAZE ON
EXPOSED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS/SIDEWALKS. AS THE AREA OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE EXPANDS NORTHWARD TO A GREAT BEND-MCPHERSON-EMPORIA LINE,
THE 32F SURFACE LINE WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH AS SURFACE WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER DAYBREAK (INDIRECT) INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
INCLUDING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR PLAIN DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE IT MAY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 32F THROUGH 16 OR EVEN
17Z. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO REACH AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS RUSSELL, BUT WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE GIVEN REMAINING PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY, AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY EAST OF KINGMAN
TO SALINA LINE, AND THE DRIZZLE/LOW STRATUS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO A HIGH OF UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE GRIDS IN ADDITION TO THE
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE QPF DEVELOPING IN THE GREATEST ZONE OF
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FRIDAY.
UMSCHEID
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OZARKS. A DEFORMATION ZONE AT 700MB IS SUGGESTED TO CLIP
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND THIS IS WHERE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WARMING LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN ALL PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAY.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN, HOWEVER,
SO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
UMSCHEID
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014
WITH WIDE TEMP/DWPT DIFFERENTIALS PLUS SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING STRATUS NOT REACHING SC & SE KS TIL ~12Z HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF IFR CIGS TIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ONCE THESE TERMINALS
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR STATUS THEY WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH
21/06Z & LIKELY BEYOND. THE -FZDZ POTENTIAL IS HOWEVER DIMINISHING
FOR THE REST OF THE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 31 41 38 55 / 20 30 20 40
HUTCHINSON 28 38 36 54 / 10 20 10 20
NEWTON 29 40 37 52 / 20 30 20 30
ELDORADO 31 41 39 55 / 20 30 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 45 42 56 / 20 30 30 50
RUSSELL 26 42 31 53 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 27 42 32 54 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 26 40 34 53 / 10 20 10 20
MCPHERSON 28 40 35 53 / 10 20 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 35 51 46 57 / 20 40 40 60
CHANUTE 32 46 44 55 / 20 40 40 60
IOLA 30 44 43 54 / 20 40 40 60
PARSONS-KPPF 33 49 45 56 / 20 40 40 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.AVIATION...
SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE
FOUR STATE REGION TONIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RACE OVERHEAD ACROSS
A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GIVE WAS TO
MVFR/IFR LATER DURING THE MORNING. PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SLOWER TO FALL AND MAY REMAIN
MORE VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH WINDS INCREASING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 54 67 53 71 60 / 50 50 40 60 90
MLU 48 67 49 72 59 / 40 40 20 30 90
DEQ 49 61 52 68 55 / 50 60 60 70 90
TXK 52 63 52 68 58 / 50 60 50 60 90
ELD 47 61 50 69 57 / 50 50 40 50 90
TYR 57 68 56 69 57 / 50 60 50 80 90
GGG 56 68 55 70 58 / 50 60 50 70 90
LFK 57 70 56 71 59 / 50 60 30 70 90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.
REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.
SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.
JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.
WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
COOLING AND KEPT LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING DESPITE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AT KGLD AROUND
SUNRISE MAY SUPPORT COOLING TEMPS...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT
WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED THIS MORNING LIMITING LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TAFS. WINDS DURING THE DAY MAY GUST TO 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...MAINLY AT KGLD. WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BEGIN TO THE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KGLD AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
511 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET WITH H25 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS AROUND
40N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS IMPINGING ON THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A PORTION OF THE JET IS DIVING SOUTH
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO MEXICO TODAY BEFORE
TURNING EAST AND MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ALBERTA INTO
MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY, AND FALLING PRESSURES IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN KANSAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY NOON AND DISSIPATE IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER FROM THE SURFACE CYCLONE INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FLOWING ACROSS TEXAS OVER
THE WARM FRONT, AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS WAS
EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE
AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE MOIST TONGUE ADVANCES OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR COVERING
KANSAS. THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
THE HRRR SOLUTION OF KEEPING MOST OF THE STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
SEEMS REASONABLE AND LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS COOL, WHILE WARM AIR OVER THE STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH MIXING. AS SUCH, THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
ERODE AND PROBABLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN WESTERN KANSAS,
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY WILL REDUCE
INSOLATION A BIT. HIGHS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK PROBABLY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE LOWER 40S. THE MOIST LAYER APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE IS MINIMAL.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES, AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE MOIST, COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FROM THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
STARTING WITH SATURDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH LOWER LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE BARBER COUNTY AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL WARM UP ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL PROGGED 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +10C TO
+12C ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS. THEN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, BRINGING SOME LOWER TO MID CLOUDS WITH IT AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE, AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE HAYS AND LARNED AREAS, AND INTO THE MID 50S DOWN
SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART, AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A COOL DOWN, WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH
OF I-70; A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW FROM SCOTT CITY TO PRATT; AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO DODGE CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
THANKSGIVING, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RATHER COLD. MAX TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S IN THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS
AREAS, THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F DEGREES FROM LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S
DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. IN THE SNOW AREAS, ONLY
0.2 TO 0.3-INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS, AND THEN TAKE A PLUNGE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING, BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CIGS MAY REDUCE TO BELOW IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME JUST AFTER SUNRISE AT KDDC AND KHYS. MVFR CIGS AROUND OVC015
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND START TO BREAK UP BY
20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z TO 21Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 47 31 60 37 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 53 26 61 33 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 56 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 53 28 62 34 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 44 28 58 37 / 0 0 10 10
P28 44 34 60 44 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND
IS NOW IN WISCONSIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT
MANY LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUB-
ZERO READINGS WERE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN
WI. NOW THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN...ESPECIALLY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS THE STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS HIGHS SHOULD THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED IN SW MN. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA...CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY FROM
THE SOUTH. LOW POPS ACROSS WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST FORCING LIMITED TO IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN OF A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX BEING SCATTERED ACROSS WESTERN WI AND SOUTHEASTERN MN TONIGHT.
NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR TONIGHT...AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. LATE EVENING TEMPS WILL COMMONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S...BUT WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A
CONTINUED FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
FOR SATURDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE PROGGED. WHILE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S...WHICH WILL BREAK THE STREAK FOR CONSECUTIVE SUB-FREEZING
DAYS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING MORNING DRIZZLE GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...BUT OVERALL A DRY AND MILD DAY IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BOTH 21.00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AS SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS MARRY. WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY MILD LOW TEMPS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
SNEAKING INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COULD SEE SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY WILL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LOW.
SUNDAY IS THE DAY THAT SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS MERGE. THE DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA...SO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING AND WINDS SHOULD BE
ON THE INCREASE OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING AREA-WIDE WITH BLOWING SNOW BECOMING A BIG
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. SNOW
AMOUNTS DON/T APPEAR TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT...BUT
ANTICIPATED WINDS COULD NECESSITATE A HEADLINE FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
A PAIR OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE THE BLAST
OF COLD AIR...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE MID TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
INITIALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH VFR ACROSS THE BOARD.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL CHANGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THANKS TO
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI ARE NOW OBSERVING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BE THE DOMINANT DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. RAP AND NAM INDICATE EXPANDING SATURATION AT 925H THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING TO SEE EXPANDING LOW STRATUS
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VIS LIMITATIONS
LOOK MOST PROMISING IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WITH IFR
LIKELY AND LIFR POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXPLAINS SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING AND LACK OF
MENTION IN THE ACTUAL TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE AFTER DARK
AND CONDITIONS LOOK TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR FLOWS OVER THE PRESENT SNOW PACK. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IN WI.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS SSW 10G20 KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
438 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AREAWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN SOUTHWEST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY UNDER CORE OF
SHORTWAVE. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARD YUMA THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND
DISSIPATING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA SO RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING GOOD
AROUND HERE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY. AS OF
10Z THERE WAS SOME PRECIPITATION AND EVEN A COUPLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO WANDER THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE HRRR HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION THAT WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
BARSTOW. THIS LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS YUMA AND FAR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE MOST RECENT MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE REDUCED ACROSS
THE BOARD. FOR LAS VEGAS I DID LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 4AM AND 8AM THIS
MORNING. IT`S BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL JUST BE A
FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AROUND THE VALLEY NEAR SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AND POPS WERE
REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SUN TO COME OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ONE POINT OF CONCERN ARE WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE
WINDS. WHILE THE DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT WINDS COULD REACH
ADVISORY [GUSTS OVER 58 MPH] OR EVEN WARNING [GUSTS OVER 70 MPH]
LEVELS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PRIMARILY ABOVE 6000 FEET. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND MAY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND HIGHLIGHTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A DECENT
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY ACROSS FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TRANSLATING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60`S
FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BUT WILL BRING A CONTINUATION
OF BRISK NORTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH
OF LAKE MOHAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FROM GOLDFIELD EAST TO CALIENTE. FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE STARTING TO FLATTEN/BREAK
DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC MOS GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS
FOR LAS VEGAS ON WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY AROUND 70. AS VALLEY
INVERSIONS STRENGTHEN OVER TIME CHALLENGE WILL BECOME FORECASTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FOR NOW UNDERCUTTING THOSE VALUES BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. A NORTH BREEZE WILL LINGER DOWN THE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY FOR THOSE LOOKING
TO RECREATE ON THE LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10-15 KFT THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS AROUND THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAINLY AOA 10KFT FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE LESSER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NYE...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
$$
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
226 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AREAWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY. AS OF
10Z THERE WAS SOME PRECIPITATION AND EVEN A COUPLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO WANDER THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE HRRR HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION THAT WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
BARSTOW. THIS LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS YUMA AND FAR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE MOST RECENT MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE REDUCED ACROSS
THE BOARD. FOR LAS VEGAS I DID LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 4AM AND 8AM THIS
MORNING. IT`S BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL JUST BE A
FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AROUND THE VALLEY NEAR SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AND POPS WERE
REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SUN TO COME OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ONE POINT OF CONCERN ARE WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE
WINDS. WHILE THE DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT WINDS COULD REACH
ADVISORY [GUSTS OVER 58 MPH] OR EVEN WARNING [GUSTS OVER 70 MPH]
LEVELS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PRIMARILY ABOVE 6000 FEET. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND MAY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND HIGHLIGHTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A DECENT
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY ACROSS FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TRANSLATING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60`S
FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BUT WILL BRING A CONTINUATION
OF BRISK NORTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH
OF LAKE MOHAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FROM GOLDFIELD EAST TO CALIENTE. FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE STARTING TO FLATTEN/BREAK
DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC MOS GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS
FOR LAS VEGAS ON WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY AROUND 70. AS VALLEY
INVERSIONS STRENGTHEN OVER TIME CHALLENGE WILL BECOME FORECASTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FOR NOW UNDERCUTTING THOSE VALUES BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. A NORTH BREEZE WILL LINGER DOWN THE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY FOR THOSE LOOKING
TO RECREATE ON THE LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 6-10KFT THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS AROUND THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAINLY AOA 10KFT FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 6-10KFT THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE LESSER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INYO...NYE AND CLARK COUNTY THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
$$
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWED SOME DEW POINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAVING FALLEN INTO THE TEENS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DRY EVEN MORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING TO AROUND 10F TO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB
ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO
AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE
LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING
TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NOTICED
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS IS LIKELY DUE...IN PART...TO SOME UPSTREAM
ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO WANE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS
MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST
A FEW GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE
WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.
IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW: GSO RDUFAY
SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914 21 IN 2008 20 IN 2000
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
520 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MS. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THIS FRONT WAS CAUSING AREAS OF
RAIN FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS IN THE
COOL SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO
SRPEAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN AR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN INTO NORTHWEST MS. INCREASED THE
POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WHILE LOCATIONS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO
NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN.
BY SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE RAIN FREE
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S MAKING
FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND RELATIVELY WARM
CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
BUT STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD
BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A STRONG AND VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE MIDSOUTH. 00Z MODELS WERE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER RUNS. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE. THINK SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. CONTINUED TO MENTION A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
DEPEND ON CONDITIONS WARMING AND DESTABILIZING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEFOREHAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ENDING FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER
NORTH. CONTINUED WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST...MORE OF A COMPROMISE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
JCL
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS
LOWER DECKS...AROUND 2500 FT...MOVE INTO THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
TERMINALS FIRST...THEN MKL TOWARD 14Z. DO EXPECT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END AROUND NOON TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT JBR
WHERE IT SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. CIGS
SHOULD RAISE AT MEM...MKL...AND TUP AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. JBR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
501 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MS. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THIS FRONT WAS CAUSING AREAS OF
RAIN FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS IN THE
COOL SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO
SRPEAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN AR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN INTO NORTHWEST MS. INCREASED THE
POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WHILE LOCATIONS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO
NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN.
BY SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE RAIN FREE
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S MAKING
FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND RELATIVELY WARM
CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
BUT STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD
BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A STRONG AND VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE MIDSOUTH. 00Z MODELS WERE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER RUNS. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE. THINK SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. CONTINUED TO MENTION A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
DEPEND ON CONDITIONS WARMING AND DESTABILIZING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEFOREHAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ENDING FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER
NORTH. CONTINUED WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST...MORE OF A COMPROMISE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 22/00Z. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY JBR AND MEM. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN 4-6 KTS TONIGHT THEN VEER ESE BETWEEN 4-8 KTS AT
SITES ON FRIDAY AND SSE AT TUP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
931 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
MID MORNING UPDATE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
PERSISTENT FOG IN PARTS OF ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
KCDS HAS GONE DOWN HARD IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS STRATUS LAYER HAS
MOVED IN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE GOOD
CHANCE THIS WILL BE PERSISTENT LATE INTO THE MORNING. STRATUS
LAYER SOUTH OF KLBB...MEANTIME...HAS NOT MADE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AND WE HAVE AMENDED KLBB TO REMOVE MENTION. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.
HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 38 66 36 54 / 0 10 10 0 10
TULIA 63 41 66 38 57 / 0 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 63 43 66 39 59 / 0 20 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 64 43 66 40 61 / 0 30 20 10 0
LUBBOCK 65 45 66 41 62 / 0 30 30 10 0
DENVER CITY 67 45 66 43 65 / 0 30 20 10 0
BROWNFIELD 65 45 66 42 63 / 0 30 30 10 0
CHILDRESS 60 46 64 43 64 / 0 60 60 10 0
SPUR 64 46 66 43 65 / 0 60 60 10 0
ASPERMONT 64 50 67 47 69 / 10 80 80 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
210 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH TO
WARM UP THE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND
SOME FOG TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. RETURN FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE BY THE TIME SUN GOES DOWN AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. SO WOULD EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO BE ABLE TO RETURN
NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.
HRRR FOLLOWED BY RAP HAVE BEEN DOING VERY WELL IN THE DEPICTION OF
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. BASED ON THAT AND THE OBSERVATIONS
TO OUR SOUTH...WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP VERY CLOSELY
FOR THE CLOUD COVER AND FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IF HRRR ENDS
UP BEING RIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION.
FOG AND STRATUS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS/INCREASES THE WINDS FROM
THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE FOG SHOULD END BY MID MORNING. ONCE THE
FOG/CLOUDS CLEAR OFF THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THROUGH 700 MB. COMBINATION OF DRY AIR MASS AND
GROUND COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARMUP.
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. THE NWP AND ESPECIALLY THE 2 METER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING COOL DURING THE LAST WEEK. AT THIS TIME WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST PLACES WITH 60S...MOSTLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S....ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONTS UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME. OVERALL...THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF MAJOR PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SYSTEMS REACHING THE
REGION. PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THANKSGIVING. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THEN...A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AT LOW LEVELS WHEN
THE COOLER AIR INTRUDES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT BUT THE QUESTION OVER THE
PAST FEW FORECAST RUNS HAS BEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS PRECIPITATION
REACHES THE GROUND. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...THERE SHOULD BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND AHEAD OF INCOMING POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR. THEREFORE...
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AND MAINTAINED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MENTION SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH PERSISTENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THAT THE REGION WILL BE ABLE TO REACH MEX/MET/ECE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THIS
THINKING. REGARDING THE WINDS...MODELS ARE NOT IN STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR. ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER ALSO MESSES WITH
ANTICIPATED MIXING HEIGHTS SO HARD TO TELL HOW STRONG THE MIXED DOWN
GUSTS WILL BE AT THIS TIME. WITHOUT A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PRESENT...CURRENTLY DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR
WIND EVENT. TYPICAL COLD/WINDY HIGH PLAINS DAYS ARE FORECAST WITH
NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH...GUSTING TO 45 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
BEYOND MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CR INITIALIZATION
PROCEDURE DID NOT INCLUDE POPS AND WITH A DRY LAYER OF AIR AT THE
SURFACE...THOUGHT THIS WAS APPROPRIATE. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
AT A LATER TIME BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION WITH THIS RUN.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IT IS HARD TO TELL
HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THIS FRONT WILL REACH AND THERE IS A STRONG CHANCE
FOR A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
THANKSGIVING FORECAST CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 38 DEGREES AT MCCOOK
NEBRASKA...44 AT GOODLAND KANSAS AND 52 AT KIT CARSON COLORADO.
MODELS TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THANKSGIVING DOWN AND
BELIEVE THIS IS ACCURATE CONSIDERING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
KMCK. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF TH MODELS BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
OR LOWER INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE OUTPUT BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST...CLOSE TO KMCK...WHILE OTHERS
KEEP TO THE EAST OF THE SITE. SO INSERTED A SCATTERED LOW DECK AND
WILL CONTINUE MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH TO
WARM UP THE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND
SOME FOG TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. RETURN FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE BY THE TIME SUN GOES DOWN AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. SO WOULD EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO BE ABLE TO RETURN
NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.
HRRR FOLLOWED BY RAP HAVE BEEN DOING VERY WELL IN THE DEPICTION OF
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. BASED ON THAT AND THE OBSERVATIONS
TO OUR SOUTH...WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP VERY CLOSELY
FOR THE CLOUD COVER AND FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IF HRRR ENDS
UP BEING RIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION.
FOG AND STRATUS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS/INCREASES THE WINDS FROM
THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE FOG SHOULD END BY MID MORNING. ONCE THE
FOG/CLOUDS CLEAR OFF THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THROUGH 700 MB. COMBINATION OF DRY AIR MASS AND
GROUND COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARMUP.
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. THE NWP AND ESPECIALLY THE 2 METER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING COOL DURING THE LAST WEEK. AT THIS TIME WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST PLACES WITH 60S...MOSTLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S....ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
KMCK. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF TH MODELS BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
OR LOWER INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE OUTPUT BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST...CLOSE TO KMCK...WHILE OTHERS
KEEP TO THE EAST OF THE SITE. SO INSERTED A SCATTERED LOW DECK AND
WILL CONTINUE MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1219 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET WITH H25 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS AROUND
40N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS IMPINGING ON THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A PORTION OF THE JET IS DIVING SOUTH
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO MEXICO TODAY BEFORE
TURNING EAST AND MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ALBERTA INTO
MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY, AND FALLING PRESSURES IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN KANSAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY NOON AND DISSIPATE IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER FROM THE SURFACE CYCLONE INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FLOWING ACROSS TEXAS OVER
THE WARM FRONT, AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS WAS
EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE
AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE MOIST TONGUE ADVANCES OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR COVERING
KANSAS. THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
THE HRRR SOLUTION OF KEEPING MOST OF THE STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
SEEMS REASONABLE AND LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS COOL, WHILE WARM AIR OVER THE STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH MIXING. AS SUCH, THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
ERODE AND PROBABLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN WESTERN KANSAS,
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY WILL REDUCE
INSOLATION A BIT. HIGHS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK PROBABLY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE LOWER 40S. THE MOIST LAYER APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE IS MINIMAL.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES, AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE MOIST, COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FROM THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
STARTING WITH SATURDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH LOWER LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE BARBER COUNTY AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL WARM UP ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL PROGGED 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +10C TO
+12C ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS. THEN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, BRINGING SOME LOWER TO MID CLOUDS WITH IT AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE, AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE HAYS AND LARNED AREAS, AND INTO THE MID 50S DOWN
SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART, AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A COOL DOWN, WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH
OF I-70; A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW FROM SCOTT CITY TO PRATT; AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO DODGE CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
THANKSGIVING, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RATHER COLD. MAX TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S IN THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS
AREAS, THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F DEGREES FROM LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S
DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. IN THE SNOW AREAS, ONLY
0.2 TO 0.3-INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS, AND THEN TAKE A PLUNGE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
WEAK NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS HAS LED TO LOWERED LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRENDS FOR THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS HOWEVER SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION DEEPENS THE BL. BY LATE EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR
WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND A HALF MILE AFTER 9Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 60 37 52 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 27 61 33 52 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 32 64 35 50 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 28 62 34 52 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 29 58 37 51 / 0 10 10 10
P28 35 60 44 55 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. FIRST THING WAS TO RAISE MAXES.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT DID WELL YESTERDAY IS CATCHING THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO RUNNING COOL AGAIN AS IT HAS
DONE HERE RECENTLY. SKY COVER AND POSSIBLE FOG FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT PROBLEM.
CURRENT MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER IS LEAVING AS EXPECTED. LARGE AREA
OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RAP AND HRRR
APPEAR TO BE CATCHING THIS BEST. THOSE MODELS BRING NOT ONLY
STRATUS BUT SOME FOG AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID
INCREASE SKY COVER BUT HAVE NOT ADDED ANY FOG YET. WOULD LIKE TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE ADDING THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.
REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.
SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.
JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.
WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
KMCK. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF TH MODELS BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
OR LOWER INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE OUTPUT BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST...CLOSE TO KMCK...WHILE OTHERS
KEEP TO THE EAST OF THE SITE. SO INSERTED A SCATTERED LOW DECK AND
WILL CONTINUE MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
954 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. FIRST THING WAS TO RAISE MAXES.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT DID WELL YESTERDAY IS CATCHING THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO RUNNING COOL AGAIN AS IT HAS
DONE HERE RECENTLY. SKY COVER AND POSSIBLE FOG FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT PROBLEM.
CURRENT MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER IS LEAVING AS EXPECTED. LARGE AREA
OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RAP AND HRRR
APPEAR TO BE CATCHING THIS BEST. THOSE MODELS BRING NOT ONLY
STRATUS BUT SOME FOG AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID
INCREASE SKY COVER BUT HAVE NOT ADDED ANY FOG YET. WOULD LIKE TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE ADDING THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.
REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.
SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.
JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.
WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
COOLING AND KEPT LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING DESPITE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AT KGLD AROUND
SUNRISE MAY SUPPORT COOLING TEMPS...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT
WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED THIS MORNING LIMITING LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TAFS. WINDS DURING THE DAY MAY GUST TO 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...MAINLY AT KGLD. WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BEGIN TO THE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KGLD AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NW AND N CNTRL CONUS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH SW
ARIZONA. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN LAKES AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A 995 MB LOW
OVER MANITOBA AND 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. WAA INTO THE
REGION HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI WITH
ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM FROM MN INTO CNTRL WI. THE LOWER CLOUDS
REMAINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER MO AND SRN IA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN WILL
RAPIDLY BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA TO SUPPORT LOWER
CLOUDS INTO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
MARGINAL TO PRODUCE PCPN...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF
WHERE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS AVAILABLE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE 3K-8K DRY/WARM LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO LIMIT/PREVENT ICE CRYSTAL AVAILABILITY INTO THE LOWER MOIST LAYER.
SO...EXPECT -FZDZ WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PCPN TYPE. EVEN THOUGH
LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED...EVEN A VERY THIN COATING
OF -FZDZ COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SAT...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL WAA WILL
PUSH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY NOON CHANGING ANY
LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE PCPN CHANCES TO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA WEAKENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO READINGS AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
A VERY ACTIVE WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A
POTENT MID-LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING A DECENT SURGE OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE AREA BACK INTO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
A SHORT PERIOD. WITH THIS WILL COME A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO WINTER WILL THEN TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...BRINGING STRONG CAA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE QUIETEST PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR ABOVE 900 HPA AND THE LACK OF ANY
APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LIMIT ANY DEEPER PRECIP
POTENTIAL. THE ONLY CONCERN IS A CHANCE FOR DZ/FZDZ ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA SOUTH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SET TO BEGIN SUNDAY AS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. FIRST...A LOOK AT THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TRACKS ESE TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS TX SATURDAY EVENING WILL
EJECT NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MERGING PIECES OF ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A QUICKLY DEVELOPING 120KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL
INDUCE A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE FROM EASTERN UPPER MI TO NORTHERN LOWER
MI BY 12Z MONDAY.
UPPER MI FINDS ITSELF CAUGHT IN A CONVOLUTED PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE TWO SYSTEMS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE AREA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FORCING REMAINS LIMITED TO START THE DAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RESULTING IN A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF FZDZ/DZ IN THE MORNING...AND RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE INFLUENCES FROM SE
WINDS OFF LAKE MI. TEMPS THROUGH THE MOIST LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR SUPER-COOLED LIQUID...INTRODUCING CONTINUED CONCERN FOR
FZDZ/FZRA IN THE MORNING. GIVEN OUR RECENT SUB-FREEZING
STRETCH...CLEARED ROADS MAY SEE SOME ICING EVEN AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LATEST MDOT ROAD SENSORS
ARE SHOWING SUB-FREEZING TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 24 INCHES BELOW THE
ROAD AND SUB-20F TEMPS DOWN TO AT LEAST 6 INCHES FOR NEARLY ALL
UPPER MI HIGHWAYS. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND THE FZDZ/FZRA POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL AIR TEMPS WARM WELL-ABOVE FREEZING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...DECENT LIFT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN A PTYPE OF ALL RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALL BUT THE WESTERN CWA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DECENT FORCING AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SURPASS 0.75IN ACROSS THE EAST HALF. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER JET BEFORE
INCREASING PRECIP AMOUNTS ANY FURTHER.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY STARTS THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW AS
THE SFC LOW REACHES EASTERN UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM MERGE...THE NEW DEEPER TROUGH NEARLY
STALLS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN IMPRESSIVE 140KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING 120KT JET MOVING
OVER QUEBEC WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A DEEPER SFC LOW OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT TROUGH NEAR SEATTLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DIG INTO THE DEPARTING THE TROUGH...FURTHER SLOWING
ITS MOVEMENT. ALL OF THIS COMES TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A LAGGING
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND DEFORMATION ZONE OVER UPPER MI ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT KICKING IN WITH N/NNW
WINDS...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
HAVE BOTH COME IN WITH MUCH HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA ON MONDAY. THOUGH THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI...THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT PAINTS HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS WELL. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
CONTINUE PRESSING EASTWARD. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALL BUT SOME OF THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS OF THE WEST HALF SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICK SNOW RATIOS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD FALL FOR MOST OF THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY JUMP
ON BOARD WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE QUITE YET...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A LATER TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW COMBINED WITH A LESS FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE FORCING WILL
KEEP AMOUNTS LOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WX HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE AND LAKE
INFLUENCE WILL GENERATE SNOW FOR THE N TO NNW WIND SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 5KFT...CUTTING OFF MUCH OF THE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ITS TRACK AND STRENGTH ARE TOO
VARIABLE IN THE MODELS TO PIN DOWN LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE LOW AND INDUCES LES FOR THE NNW WIND
SNOW BELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A SLOWLY MODERATING
850 HPA AIRMASS WITH TEMPS -15 TO -20C WILL RESULT IN THE WEATHER
FEELING MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS THAN THANKSGIVING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE TEENS FOR AT LEAST THE WEST AND CENTRAL. BY
FRIDAY...ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING MODERATING CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
MID CLOUDS WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS PREVAILED THIS AFTRNOON AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES OVER BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE OH VALLEY. LLWS IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
REALLY INCREASES 1-2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. HAVE
LEFT GUSTS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
DROP IN CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH KSAW HAVING THE LOWEST VALUES
THAT SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE LATE. WITH THESE LOW
CLOUDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE OH VALLEY.
WINDS TOT 30KTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO NEAR THE STRAITS MONDAY MORNING AT AROUND 28.9 INCHES. AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NORTHERLY GALES ARE LIKELY WHICH
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ248.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NW AND N CNTRL CONUS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH SW
ARIZONA. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN LAKES AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A 995 MB LOW
OVER MANITOBA AND 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. WAA INTO THE
REGION HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI WITH
ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM FROM MN INTO CNTRL WI. THE LOWER CLOUDS
REMAINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER MO AND SRN IA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN WILL
RAPIDLY BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA TO SUPPORT LOWER
CLOUDS INTO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
MARGINAL TO PRODUCE PCPN...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF
WHERE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS AVAILABLE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE 3K-8K DRY/WARM LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO LIMIT/PREVENT ICE CRYSTAL AVAILABILITY INTO THE LOWER MOIST LAYER.
SO...EXPECT -FZDZ WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PCPN TYPE. EVEN THOUGH
LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED...EVEN A VERY THIN COATING
OF -FZDZ COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SAT...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL WAA WILL
PUSH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY NOON CHANGING ANY
LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE PCPN CHANCES TO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA WEAKENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO READINGS AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
BIG CHANGES ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT PERSISTENTLY
MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RELAX
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STRONG WAVE PLOWS
INTO THE PAC NW FORCING THE TROUGH OUT FM ERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS QUICKLY AS MODELS SHOW 220-240M 500MB HEIGHT RISES
OVER UPPER MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING RIDGE FM THE PLAINS.
SO...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY LONG STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER FOR NOV
(RECORD BREAKING SUBFREEZING STREAK AT NWS MQT FOR NOV AND ALSO 6
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS)...EXPECT A QUICK
TRANSITION BACK TO NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SURGING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL CARVE OUT A
SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM TROF THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING FROM NORTH TX SUN MORNING TO
NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS BY MONDAY WITH PRES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
HIGH 970S MB OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW...RAIN WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE PCPN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON MON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO
TUE...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER THIS WEEKENDS WARMUP...MODELS
POINT TOWARD A COLD PATTERN BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA/NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL S TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS/GREAT LAKES
REGION AGAIN. MANY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON (WELL BLO -20C 8H TEMPS) DROPPING SE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER THIS COLD
PATTERN WILL AGAIN BECOME PERSISTENT LIKE WHAT WE`VE SEEN THIS PAST
WEEK REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT THERE IS RECENT SUPPORT FROM THE NAEFS
AND CFSV2 RUNS THAT COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY DECEMBER.
BEGINNING SAT...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN STRENGTHENING
WSW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE E COAST AND LOW PRES
MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA...SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME VERY
LIGHT PCPN OVER THE ERN FCST AREA ON SAT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...PERSISTENCE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
AS NOTED ON THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WARRANTS NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC POPS TO LOW CHC POPS SAT. GIVEN DRYNESS NOTED IN MID-LVLS
AND THE SFC BASED MOIST LAYER WARMER THAN -10C...PCPN MAY END UP
MOSTLY AS -DZ/-FZDZ IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR. EXPECT TEMPS ON SAT TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE.
SAT NIGHT...WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS UNDER DRIER MID LEVELS...EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30F IN GENERAL.
SUN INTO MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL
HELP PULL THIS SYSTEM NORTH AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT PHASING THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO THE 970S MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE UPPER LAKES MON MORNING. THE GFS HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW SHOWING AROUND 980 MB SFC LOW TRACKING TO NEAR
MACKINAC STRAITS BY 12Z MON. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN HAD TRENDED FARTHER
EAST TOWARD THE GFS SOLN TRACK AND THE LATEST 00Z RUN SHOWS A
SIMILAR TRACK AND A BIT QUICKER SOLN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS RUN. THE
GEM-NH HAS ALSO SHOWN A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE GFS BUT AGAIN WAS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER LIKE THE ECMWF BUT NOT QUITE AS DEEP. ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PCPN ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN
FOR UPPER MI ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE -FZRA AT THE ONSET SUNDAY MORNING IF TEMPS ARE
STILL CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN PCPN BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHOWING BEST SURGE OF RAIN INTO UPPER MI LATE SUN
MORNING/AFTN AND CONTINUING SUN NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST MODERATE PCPN
RANGING FROM .25 FAR WEST TO AROUND AN INCH EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED NEAR TRACK
OF SFC LOW.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NNE AND THE COLUMN COOLS UNDER FALLING
HEIGHTS...MODELS INDICATE DEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD PCPN SHIELD
DEVELOPING. THE FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE STRENGTH AND
PERSISTENCE OF THIS DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD AND WHERE IT WILL SET
UP. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGARD WHICH
WILL BE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER
DEFINED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD THAN EITHER THE GFS OR GEM-NH. WITH
850MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -12C BY 00Z TUE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY. SO AFTER THE RAIN ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...STILL
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
NW WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND EHWO GRIDS. THE
SNOW/WIND WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA AS WELL...BUT WITH
DEFORMATION PCPN TENDING TO LIFT NE...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHTER THAN OVER THE W.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TUE...NW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
TRANSITION TO PURE LES AS TROF SHIFTS E AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS.
WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THERE WILL BE A
DIMINISHING OF LES THRU THE DAY NEAR THE LAKE.
HEADING INTO WED/THU...SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE
ECMWF...SHOW INDICATIONS OF A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE BRINGING A
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF -SN...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND
RENEWED LES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THERE
IS STILL INCONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING/TRACK OF
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS POPS HIGHEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
MID CLOUDS WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS PREVAILED THIS AFTRNOON AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES OVER BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE OH VALLEY. LLWS IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
REALLY INCREASES 1-2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. HAVE
LEFT GUSTS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
DROP IN CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH KSAW HAVING THE LOWEST VALUES
THAT SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE LATE. WITH THESE LOW
CLOUDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE OH VALLEY.
WINDS TOT 30KTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO NEAR THE STRAITS MONDAY MORNING AT AROUND 28.9 INCHES. AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NORTHERLY GALES ARE LIKELY WHICH
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ248.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
434 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
THERE ARE A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FIRST: IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE SECOND:
IS THE MIXED P-TYPE AND WIND EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THERE IS A
LOW STRATUS DECK STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WE THINK THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION AND
BETTER OMEGA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT /BASICALLY INN AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 40-80% IN THESE AREAS. LOCALLY...WE`RE NOT CONFIDENT IN
MUCH ELSE BESIDES A HEALTHY STRATUS DECK AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG
AS THE STRATUS LOWERS. WE MAINTAINED LOW PROBS OF PRECIP IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX...AND IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL
AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE FOLLOWED THE LATEST REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OF THE HRRR...WHICH
MATCH UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 0.5KM CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS OFF THE 20Z-22Z RAP.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM.
THE NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INDICATE A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN...PROBABLY
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NAM SHOW 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR 12-15 HOURS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CONDITION OF THE SNOWPACK WILL BE IN
QUESTION IN THE EAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR
RAIN...BUT WESTERN MN WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AND WE COULD ALSO
PICK UP A HIGH RATIO 0.5-2.0" IN SPOTS...SO THE THREAT FOR BLOWING
SNOW IS STILL A CONCERN IN WESTERN MN. WINTER HEADLINES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND
CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE
NAEFS AND GEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE ALSO QUITE COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
INITIALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH VFR ACROSS THE BOARD.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL CHANGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THANKS TO
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI ARE NOW OBSERVING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BE THE DOMINANT DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. RAP AND NAM INDICATE EXPANDING SATURATION AT 925H THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING TO SEE EXPANDING LOW STRATUS
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VIS LIMITATIONS
LOOK MOST PROMISING IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WITH IFR
LIKELY AND LIFR POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXPLAINS SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING AND LACK OF
MENTION IN THE ACTUAL TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE AFTER DARK
AND CONDITIONS LOOK TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR FLOWS OVER THE PRESENT SNOW PACK. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IN WI.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS SSW 10G20 KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN/BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 25G30 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014
Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains. There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri. Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois. Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence. At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area. Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014
At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area. The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains. There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region. A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL. Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change. Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front. There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region. The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region. Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday. Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US. The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF. A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014
Low based VFR or high MVFR will continue to move northeast across
the area this afternoon. Rain will begin to move into the area
later this afternoon into the evening hours, though the coverage
is not expected to great enough to warrant more than VCSH at this
point. Later this evening and overnight, a low level jet is
expected to develop over the region which will bring LLWS
conditions at all of the airports. These conditions will last
until around 14Z Saturday morning. Then low based VFR or high MVFR
are expected during Saturday with a low chance of rain.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly low VFR conditions through the
day today until this evening when MVFR ceilings move into the area
with a chance of rain. Expect LLWS conditions overnight with
persistent MVFR ceilings before ceilings rise to VFR during the
day with a continued low chance of rain.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE MORNING 12Z
SOUNDING FROM KLBF SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM -6C AT THE SURFACE TO 6C AT 875MB.
FROM 875MB THROUGH 800MB TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL. THE
QUESTION HAD BEEN HOW DEEP MIXING WOULD OCCUR TODAY AND FROM
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE HELPED THINGS ALONG WITH AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKER THAN HAD ANTICIPATED. THIS WOULD
INDICATE MIXING WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...PERHAPS TO 850-800MB FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA /MAYBE A LITTLE LOWER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHERE SNOW COVER WILL HAMPER THE WARMING SOME. DUE TO THE TREND
THUS FAR TODAY HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 60 OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVEN/T GONE THAT WARM...BUT UPPER 50S IS NOW
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND POINTING TOWARDS
A WARM UP TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM START
TO THE DAY. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. STILL ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THIS SNOW FIELD TODAY
AND TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARDS 12C BY 22/18Z.
BELIEVE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE UNDER DONE AGAIN TODAY BUT
HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY OUT DID
GUIDANCE BY A 1 CATEGORY AND BELIEVE THIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
WITH MODEL BIAS BASED ON SNOW COVER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER MILD EVENING WITH
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. DRY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. H85 TEMPERATURES BY
00Z SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 9 TO 11 C RANGE...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE AS
OF LATE HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS WITH THE NAM IMPACTED STILL BY
PERCEIVED SNOWPACK...THUS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL TRENDED
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV...AND THEN MANUALLY ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FROM THERE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWER 60S FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 NOW. A COLD FRONT
HOWEVER WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY SOME 10-15 DEGREES. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...OR POSSIBLY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER BOTH THE
NAM AND THE GFS INDICATE A LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE PROFILE. FOR
THIS WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE ADDING A QPF
MENTION. NOTE HOWEVER A LIGHT SNOW MENTION WAS CONTINUED EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SNOW CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS POINT MODEL AGREEMENT IS
LACKING...THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SEASONAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON MONDAY WITH
UPPER 20S ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...LOWER 40S FOR THE
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AS A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLE...MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATE TUESDAY AND BEYOND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSISTENCY AND GENERAL AGREEMENT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
ANOTHER SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOMETIME
MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF AT TIMES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH/S/. BUT THE ECMWF HAS
FLOPPED FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW FAVORING A WARMER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHEREAS THE GFS IS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES /THIS IS A FLOP AS WELL/. FOR COMPARISON BY 00Z
FRIDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UPWARDS TO 20C DIFFERENT AT H85 OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO FORCE
THE COLD AIR EAST /BIG REVERSAL FROM 24 HOURS AGO/. THE GFS
SUGGESTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AGAIN AND CONTRADICTION TO 24
HOURS AGO BUT IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC INTRUSION.
GIVEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY
AGREEMENT...FELT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO EMPLOY THE BLENDED
FORECAST APPROACH /SUPERBLEND/. THE SUPERBLEND /POSSIBLY
COMPROMISED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLDER ECMWF FORECAST/ SEEMS TO FAVOR
A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
20S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SNOW. OBVIOUSLY IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL COULD BE GREAT GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW/ARCTIC INTRUSION...IT MUST BE STATED
THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...ANTICIPATE
FORECAST CHANGES AS THE MODELS EVENTUAL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA AS IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
BELIEVE THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP IT EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
OR LOWERED CEILINGS IN THIS FORECAST. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AFTER DIMINISHING TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 10-15KTS SATURDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE MORNING 12Z
SOUNDING FROM KLBF SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM -6C AT THE SURFACE TO 6C AT 875MB.
FROM 875MB THROUGH 800MB TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL. THE
QUESTION HAD BEEN HOW DEEP MIXING WOULD OCCUR TODAY AND FROM
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE HELPED THINGS ALONG WITH AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKER THAN HAD ANTICIPATED. THIS WOULD
INDICATE MIXING WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...PERHAPS TO 850-800MB FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA /MAYBE A LITTLE LOWER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHERE SNOW COVER WILL HAMPER THE WARMING SOME. DUE TO THE TREND
THUS FAR TODAY HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 60 OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVEN/T GONE THAT WARM...BUT UPPER 50S IS NOW
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND POINTING TOWARDS
A WARM UP TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM START
TO THE DAY. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. STILL ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THIS SNOW FIELD TODAY
AND TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARDS 12C BY 22/18Z.
BELIEVE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE UNDER DONE AGAIN TODAY BUT
HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY OUT DID
GUIDANCE BY A 1 CATEGORY AND BELIEVE THIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
WITH MODEL BIAS BASED ON SNOW COVER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER MILD EVENING WITH
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. DRY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. H85 TEMPERATURES BY
00Z SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 9 TO 11 C RANGE...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE AS
OF LATE HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS WITH THE NAM IMPACTED STILL BY
PERCEIVED SNOWPACK...THUS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL TRENDED
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV...AND THEN MANUALLY ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FROM THERE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWER 60S FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 NOW. A COLD FRONT
HOWEVER WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY SOME 10-15 DEGREES. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...OR POSSIBLY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER BOTH THE
NAM AND THE GFS INDICATE A LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE PROFILE. FOR
THIS WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE ADDING A QPF
MENTION. NOTE HOWEVER A LIGHT SNOW MENTION WAS CONTINUED EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SNOW CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS POINT MODEL AGREEMENT IS
LACKING...THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SEASONAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON MONDAY WITH
UPPER 20S ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...LOWER 40S FOR THE
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AS A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLE...MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATE TUESDAY AND BEYOND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSISTENCY AND GENERAL AGREEMENT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
ANOTHER SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOMETIME
MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF AT TIMES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH/S/. BUT THE ECMWF HAS
FLOPPED FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW FAVORING A WARMER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHEREAS THE GFS IS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES /THIS IS A FLOP AS WELL/. FOR COMPARISON BY 00Z
FRIDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UPWARDS TO 20C DIFFERENT AT H85 OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO FORCE
THE COLD AIR EAST /BIG REVERSAL FROM 24 HOURS AGO/. THE GFS
SUGGESTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AGAIN AND CONTRADICTION TO 24
HOURS AGO BUT IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC INTRUSION.
GIVEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY
AGREEMENT...FELT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO EMPLOY THE BLENDED
FORECAST APPROACH /SUPERBLEND/. THE SUPERBLEND /POSSIBLY
COMPROMISED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLDER ECMWF FORECAST/ SEEMS TO FAVOR
A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
20S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SNOW. OBVIOUSLY IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL COULD BE GREAT GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW/ARCTIC INTRUSION...IT MUST BE STATED
THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...ANTICIPATE
FORECAST CHANGES AS THE MODELS EVENTUAL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AND CEILINGS AOA 10KFT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER (MAIN RESULT WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER).
THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BE WASHED OUT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA) THAN TODAYS...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD
REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...BUT COULD STILL
ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THIS REGION.
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDICATES A BAND OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET GIVEN THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DID INCLUDE A SCHC FOR MIXED PRECIP...BUT WITH
OTHER MODELS DRY (SLOWER) CANNOT GO WITH HIGHER POPS. THE UPPER
LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...ANTICIPATE STRONG N/NW WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. AS OF NOW...WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD BE
30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS (GIVEN EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT). THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. ANY SNOW-PACK CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND WILL NOT BE BLOW-ABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE DAY TODAY...SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. SO...HOW
MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE BLOWING
SNOW IS DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORCING OVER THIS
REGION THINKING 1-2 INCHES AT MOST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER (ALTHOUGH GFS INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM AND HIGHER QPF).
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT THE CURRENT MENTION IN THE HWO AND
WEATHER STORY SEEMS LIKE THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS AT THIS MOMENT
IN TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FCST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE. CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH.
COLDEST AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY. MODERATION OCCURS FRIDAY BUT LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP AREA
NEAR THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN COLD NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS/ECMWF SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BLENDS WELL
WITH BLENDED MODEL DATA PROCEDURE. GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM FOR THE THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL PERIOD LOCALLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 06Z WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND MID
CLOUD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING. A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR A TAD
SOUTH OF IT BY 12Z SAT. RAP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
MVFR CIGS PSBL NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR
NORTHERN MN MOSTLY 12-18Z SATURDAY PERIOD. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH
MVFR CIGS WILL GET HOWEVER. ANOTHER CONCERN IS LOWER CLOUDS IN
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. 859-925 MB WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THE TARGET
AREA FOR THOSE WILL BE IOWA....SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
NO OR LIMITED SNOW COVER) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MAX TEMPS ALREADY.
WILL USE THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR GUIDANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPS
MOST AREAS (MID TO UPPER 30S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER...AND
NEAR FREEZING WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.
ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.
AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 06Z WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND MID
CLOUD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING. A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR A TAD
SOUTH OF IT BY 12Z SAT. RAP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
MVFR CIGS PSBL NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR
NORTHERN MN MOSTLY 12-18Z SATURDAY PERIOD. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH
MVFR CIGS WILL GET HOWEVER. ANOTHER CONCERN IS LOWER CLOUDS IN
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. 859-925 MB WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THE TARGET
AREA FOR THOSE WILL BE IOWA....SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY SATURDAY
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE NW COAST TODAY...RIDING A ROBUST 160+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST SO FAR...BUT WILL
PROCEED INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY ICING CONCERNS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS
WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR AREAS
LIKE CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PICK UP A FEW HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS.
OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MARGINAL WIND EVENT. SOME
BEACH AND EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH...BUT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AFTER WHICH THE COASTAL WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.
500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON SATURDAY. LIFTED
INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX THAT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE INSTABILITY. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND TO
THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS
WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. PYLE/26
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...LIFTING MOST THE AREA TO VFR CIGS. MAY
BE SOME SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...AS SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030. EXPECT MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP CIGS MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME IFR TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z TO
09Z THIS EVENING.
-MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOLID GALES
WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS
WITH A COASTAL JET. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NEAR 20 FT BY 4-6PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT...DROPPING TO 12 TO 14 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
-MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
PST THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1158 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
UPDATE...
AT 10 AM A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...WHILE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MIDSOUTH RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 50S. SHOWERS WERE ONGOING MAINLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WERE DIMINISHING EAST OF THE RIVER. THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND THUS NO
UPDATES ARE NECESSARY.
ZDM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MS. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THIS FRONT WAS CAUSING AREAS OF
RAIN FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS IN THE
COOL SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO
SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN
AR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN INTO NORTHWEST MS. INCREASED
THE POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. AREAS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WHILE
LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN.
BY SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE RAIN FREE
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S MAKING
FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND RELATIVELY WARM
CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
BUT STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD
BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A STRONG AND VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE MIDSOUTH. 00Z MODELS WERE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER RUNS. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE. THINK SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. CONTINUED TO MENTION A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
DEPEND ON CONDITIONS WARMING AND DESTABILIZING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEFOREHAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ENDING FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER
NORTH. CONTINUED WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST...MORE OF A COMPROMISE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS LIFTING NORTH ALONG WITH WARM FRONT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT KJBR THROUGH 22/00Z...VFR THEREAFTER. EAST WINDS
AOB 8 KTS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1030 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.UPDATE...
AT 10 AM A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...WHILE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MIDSOUTH RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 50S. SHOWERS WERE ONGOING MAINLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WERE DIMINISHING EAST OF THE RIVER. THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND THUS NO
UPDATES ARE NECESSARY.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MS. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THIS FRONT WAS CAUSING AREAS OF
RAIN FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS IN THE
COOL SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO
SRPEAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN AR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN INTO NORTHWEST MS. INCREASED THE
POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WHILE LOCATIONS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO
NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN.
BY SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE RAIN FREE
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S MAKING
FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND RELATIVELY WARM
CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
BUT STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD
BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A STRONG AND VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE MIDSOUTH. 00Z MODELS WERE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN EARLIER RUNS. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE. THINK SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. CONTINUED TO MENTION A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
DEPEND ON CONDITIONS WARMING AND DESTABILIZING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEFOREHAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ENDING FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER
NORTH. CONTINUED WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST...MORE OF A COMPROMISE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS
LOWER DECKS...AROUND 2500 FT...MOVE INTO THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
TERMINALS FIRST...THEN MKL TOWARD 14Z. DO EXPECT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END AROUND NOON TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT JBR
WHERE IT SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. CIGS
SHOULD RAISE AT MEM...MKL...AND TUP AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. JBR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AT 18Z WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY 18Z SATURDAY. FLOW WILL BACK WITH APPROACH
OF THIS LOW ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD KLBB DURING
THE NIGHT...AND KCDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. KLBB
LOOKS LIKE ON BORDERLINE WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER...BETTER CHANCE
TO THE EAST...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A TEMPO OR PROB MENTION. PERHAPS
A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THOUGH WHICH WILL NEED
ADDITIONAL ASSESSMENT. RETAINED PREVIOUS TEMPO THUNDER FOR KCDS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUST ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
FOR KCDS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. BUT THE INITIAL PROBLEM
WILL BE A RISK FOR LIFR CEILINGS BY MID EVENING FOR BOTH SITES...
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPLICITLY MENTIONED. CANNOT RULE OUT GOING DOWN
HARD ON VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG AS WELL THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH. MENTION OF LIGHT FOG ONLY FOR NOW. STRATUS LAYER CURRENTLY
OVER KCDS APPEARS STARTING NOW TO BE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST AS A HIGH LEVEL IMPULSE AND THICKER CLOUDS ALOFT
CLEAR AWAY. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT KCDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE RETURNING BY MID-EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
UPDATE...
MID MORNING UPDATE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
PERSISTENT FOG IN PARTS OF ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN
AVIATION...
KCDS HAS GONE DOWN HARD IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS STRATUS LAYER HAS
MOVED IN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE GOOD
CHANCE THIS WILL BE PERSISTENT LATE INTO THE MORNING. STRATUS
LAYER SOUTH OF KLBB...MEANTIME...HAS NOT MADE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AND WE HAVE AMENDED KLBB TO REMOVE MENTION. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SLOWLY NEARING THE TAF SITE. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
ARE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO KCDS GIVE A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS MAY
SEE OTHERWISE. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A SCT BELOW 1000 FT AGL DECK
AND MVFR FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF KLBB
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST VALIDATES AN INSERTION OF A FEW IFR DECK.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. INCREASING VFR
DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHILE AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
-TSRA. ONCE AGAIN...KCDS IS MOST FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES AND HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A RETURN TOMORROW
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PASSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING...THUS RESULTING
IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT WHICH PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD APPROACH THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AOA SUNRISE AS
HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
AFFECT THE SAID AREA GIVEN PROGGED SFC WINDS BACKING TO THE NW WHICH
IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT THAT ENCOURAGES THE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPERIENCE FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS BEFORE IT SCOURS OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW THAT IS TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CALI PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA THIS AFN...TO NWRN OLD MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S-SE
THUS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS
NO WONDER THAT PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5 INCH-1.20 INCHES BY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PWATS OCCURRING OFF THE CAPROCK. AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR TONIGHT...UL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND THE LLJ WILL CRANK UP TO 25-35
KTS ACROSS THE SAID AREA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMMENCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS PWATS RISE ABOVE
1.00 INCH...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT OVERLOOK PROGGED
MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 40 KTS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES NOTED FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...THUS SUGGESTING STORMS HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF
APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE APPROACHING UA LOW WILL CAUSE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
HENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...THOUGH STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS THERE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
MODIFICATION TO THE PRECIP RELATED FIELDS.
HEIGHT GRADIENT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY...PROGGED 700MB HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND COLD AIR SPILLING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 38 66 36 54 / 0 10 10 0 10
TULIA 63 41 66 38 57 / 0 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 63 43 66 39 59 / 0 20 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 64 43 66 40 61 / 0 30 20 10 0
LUBBOCK 65 45 66 41 62 / 0 30 30 10 0
DENVER CITY 67 45 66 43 65 / 0 30 20 10 0
BROWNFIELD 65 45 66 42 63 / 0 30 30 10 0
CHILDRESS 60 46 64 43 64 / 0 60 60 10 0
SPUR 64 46 66 43 65 / 0 60 60 10 0
ASPERMONT 64 50 67 47 69 / 10 80 80 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05