Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/20/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
349 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY. A FAST MOVING STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY AND A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY CONTINUE.
WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR AN INTENSE...WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
HERKIMER AND LEWIS/ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES TRIPLE POINT...TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STEADY-STATE POSITION TO THE BAND WITH A PERSISTENT 250 FLOW
TRAJECTORY. BY EARLY TO MID EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE BAND
TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY NORTH OF ROUTE 28...AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
TO A 260-270 TRAJECTORY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ALY
5KM WRF DEPICTS THE BAND SLOWLY DRIFTING S/SE AND EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING THE OLD FORGE AREA ALONG ROUTE 28 BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING AN
UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND TO IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH. THERE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY...WHICH TENDS TO MITIGATE THE INLAND EXTENT. THUS WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAINLY NORTH OLD FORGE WHERE 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH 4-8
INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF ROUTE 28. BASED ON
MITIGATING FACTORS...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH HAMILTON COUNTY WHERE 2-6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND INLET...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST
TOWARDS INDIAN LAKE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE COLD...DRY AND CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR LOWS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 10
BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF HERKIMER COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY TO START THE
MORNING...WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL MENTION
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INITIALLY...THEN WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE S/SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IN STORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES "WARMER" DUE TO A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE.
ON THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EAST...ANOTHER
SHOT OF DEEP COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE
FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPS
REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WNW THURSDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND EVEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT...ONCE
AGAIN BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM WITH SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LAST REMNANTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
IMPACT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC WITH A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. H850 TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
-13C TO -15C RANGE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME THERMAL ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
10 DEGREES WITH MILDER MINS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS
RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GFS...AND GEFS. AS THE WAVE LIFTS N/NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE STRONG QG LIFT GENERATED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SOAR BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING FROM THE
U30S TO L50S ON SUNDAY...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD 50S TO L60S ON
MONDAY...AS THE CYCLONE PASSES WELL WEST OF THE REGION INTO THE SE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY AND HIGH CHC VALUES.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS UPSTREAM...AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
NOVEMBER.
OVERALL...TEMPS COULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO
THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK WARM UP AND PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRISK SW
TO W WINDS OF 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ESPECIALLY AT
KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND THE
WINDS WILL ONLY ABATE SLIGHTLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE LATE TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TOWARDS NOONTIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THURSDAY FOR
FAVORED AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO ICE
FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
101 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST
MOVING STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1108 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FOR
HAMILTON COUNTY. BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY BEGIN AT 5 PM.
THE WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED SW-NE
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES AND SW ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY...WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN A SW 250 DEGREE TRAJECTORY.
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF THE BAND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT S/SE TOWARDS THE WRN DACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AROUND 260-270
TRAJECTORY.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION
TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND
TO REACH WELL INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR
RESEARCH. THIS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE MODERATE AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF OLD FORGE WHERE A FOOT+ IS POSSIBLE...WITH
6-12 INCHES IN AND AROUND OLD FORGE. HOWEVER...IT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN THAT THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE BAND WILL REACH INTO
WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR LESSER AMOUNTS BUT STILL IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID
20S WELL NORTHWEST OF TOWN...LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
THE WIND WAS GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 30 MPH ALREADY IN SOME
SPOTS...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST...20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY...A
WEST WIND GUSTING UP TO 25-40 MPH...JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MOST OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COLD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE BUT NOT ALL THE WAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE LAKE BAND IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT IS MAINLY DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.
DESPITE BEING ABNORMALLY COLD...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY RECORD LOWS
WILL BROKEN.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...COULD ACTUALLY THREATEN COLD MAX
TEMPERATURES RECORDS. IN ALBANY THE COLD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
WEDNESDAY IS 30 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
OF A HIGH OF 31 SO WE STAND A CHANCE OF TYING OR EVEN BREAKING THIS
LONG STANDING RECORD.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE WIND WILL BE NOT BE A STRONG
AS TODAY...WESTERLY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD ON
MAIN FEATURES AND TIMING...SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE DEGREE OF
LAKE/QPF RESPONSE TO THE WED NT/THU SYSTEM.
500HPA CUTOFF MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS INTO THE OTTAWA VLY WITH
ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SFC LOW WED INTO THU. WED NT IT DRAGS A WMFNT NE
ACROSS THE RGN...WITH MAINLY CLOUDS..AND SCT -SHSN WITH SOME LK
ENHANCEMENT N OF FCA INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY. BY THU AFTN ITS CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE 500HPA TROF AXIS...AND STRONG
CAA AGAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. BTWN THE 500HPA TROF AND LK ENHANCEMENT
-SNSH WILL CONT INTO FRI...HWVR EVEN NR THE LAKES STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT FM 240 VECTOR TO 310 FM THU NT TO FRI MORNING...THEN BACK TO
280 BY FRI NT. THIS WILL MINIMIZE CONCENTRATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
ONE PLACE...AND SPREAD THE QPF AROUND. FM ALB S & E IT WILL JUST BE
COLD WITH SCT FLURRIES.
FRI NT AND SAT 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...AND RIDGING BUILDS E FM GRTLKS.
AT SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE E SEABOARD...AS COLD CORE FINALLY LIFTS
NE OUT OF RGN FRI NT. OTRW TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT MODEST RIDGING HAS REPLACED THE SHARP 500 HPA TROF ALONG THE E
SEABOARD...WHILE AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG THE SEABOARD.
INT HE MORNING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER FCA...SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTN WITH GRAD INCR SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SAT
BUT STILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL.
AFT SAT PERIOD EVOLVES INTO MILDER AND UNSETTLED CONDS.
SAT NT 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS NE INTO THE MISS VLY...WHILE FCA
REMAINS IN RETURN FLOW OF SFC HIGH. ECM/HPC AS WELL AS CURRENT
FCST BRING INCR CHC OF -SHRA...AS TEMP CONT TO MODERATE. DURING SUN
THE SHORT WV LIFTS NE INTO THE GRTLKS RGN AND EVOLVES INTO A
MAJOR TROF AS SFC LOW MOVES TO LK SUPERIOR BY MON. THIS SETS UP MUCH
OF THE E SEABOARD FOR WAA AT ALL LEVELS. ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY HAVE
MAINLY DRY CONDS SUN...GIVING WAY TO INCRG CHC PCPN DURING AFT OR
BY EVNG.
MON FCA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR UNDER SW AT ALL LEVELS. MAIN WMFNT IS
WELL N OF FCA. GFS BRINGS CDFNT TO E GRTLKS...BUT BULK OF PCPN
REMAINS W OF FCA...ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH.
OVERALL MILD TEMPS WILL BE A GIVEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AFTER THE FIRST ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON...MOST OF SAT WILL BE
DRY...AFTER THAT THREAT -F -SHRA WILL INCR SUN...AN A GOOD BIT OF
THE MODEL SUITE AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD IT OFF TILL LATE IN
THE DAY.
AFTER SUN AFTN CHC -SHRA/RA CONTINUES INTO TUES WITHOUT MUCH ABILITY
TO TIMING. WILL POPULATE GRIDS WITH HPC...BUT HOLD DON POPS FOR
THE DAY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRISK SW
TO W WINDS OF 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ESPECIALLY AT
KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND THE
WINDS WILL ONLY ABATE SLIGHTLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE LATE TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TOWARDS NOONTIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1108 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST
MOVING STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1108 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FOR
HAMILTON COUNTY. BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY BEGIN AT 5 PM.
THE WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED SW-NE
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES AND SW ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY...WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN A SW 250 DEGREE TRAJECTORY.
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF THE BAND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT S/SE TOWARDS THE WRN DACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AROUND 260-270
TRAJECTORY.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION
TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND
TO REACH WELL INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR
RESEARCH. THIS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE MODERATE AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF OLD FORGE WHERE A FOOT+ IS POSSIBLE...WITH
6-12 INCHES IN AND AROUND OLD FORGE. HOWEVER...IT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN THAT THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE BAND WILL REACH INTO
WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR LESSER AMOUNTS BUT STILL IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID
20S WELL NORTHWEST OF TOWN...LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
THE WIND WAS GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 30 MPH ALREADY IN SOME
SPOTS...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST...20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY...A
WEST WIND GUSTING UP TO 25-40 MPH...JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MOST OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COLD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE BUT NOT ALL THE WAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE LAKE BAND IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT IS MAINLY DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.
DESPITE BEING ABNORMALLY COLD...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY RECORD LOWS
WILL BROKEN.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...COULD ACTUALLY THREATEN COLD MAX
TEMPERATURES RECORDS. IN ALBANY THE COLD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
WEDNESDAY IS 30 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
OF A HIGH OF 31 SO WE STAND A CHANCE OF TYING OR EVEN BREAKING THIS
LONG STANDING RECORD.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE WIND WILL BE NOT BE A STRONG
AS TODAY...WESTERLY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD ON
MAIN FEATURES AND TIMING...SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE DEGREE OF
LAKE/QPF RESPONSE TO THE WED NT/THU SYSTEM.
500HPA CUTOFF MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS INTO THE OTTAWA VLY WITH
ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SFC LOW WED INTO THU. WED NT IT DRAGS A WMFNT NE
ACROSS THE RGN...WITH MAINLY CLOUDS..AND SCT -SHSN WITH SOME LK
ENHANCEMENT N OF FCA INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY. BY THU AFTN ITS CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE 500HPA TROF AXIS...AND STRONG
CAA AGAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. BTWN THE 500HPA TROF AND LK ENHANCEMENT
-SNSH WILL CONT INTO FRI...HWVR EVEN NR THE LAKES STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT FM 240 VECTOR TO 310 FM THU NT TO FRI MORNING...THEN BACK TO
280 BY FRI NT. THIS WILL MINIMIZE CONCENTRATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
ONE PLACE...AND SPREAD THE QPF AROUND. FM ALB S & E IT WILL JUST BE
COLD WITH SCT FLURRIES.
FRI NT AND SAT 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...AND RIDGING BUILDS E FM GRTLKS.
AT SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE E SEABOARD...AS COLD CORE FINALLY LIFTS
NE OUT OF RGN FRI NT. OTRW TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT MODEST RIDGING HAS REPLACED THE SHARP 500 HPA TROF ALONG THE E
SEABOARD...WHILE AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG THE SEABOARD.
INT HE MORNING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER FCA...SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTN WITH GRAD INCR SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SAT
BUT STILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL.
AFT SAT PERIOD EVOLVES INTO MILDER AND UNSETTLED CONDS.
SAT NT 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS NE INTO THE MISS VLY...WHILE FCA
REMAINS IN RETURN FLOW OF SFC HIGH. ECM/HPC AS WELL AS CURRENT
FCST BRING INCR CHC OF -SHRA...AS TEMP CONT TO MODERATE. DURING SUN
THE SHORT WV LIFTS NE INTO THE GRTLKS RGN AND EVOLVES INTO A
MAJOR TROF AS SFC LOW MOVES TO LK SUPERIOR BY MON. THIS SETS UP MUCH
OF THE E SEABOARD FOR WAA AT ALL LEVELS. ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY HAVE
MAINLY DRY CONDS SUN...GIVING WAY TO INCRG CHC PCPN DURING AFT OR
BY EVNG.
MON FCA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR UNDER SW AT ALL LEVELS. MAIN WMFNT IS
WELL N OF FCA. GFS BRINGS CDFNT TO E GRTLKS...BUT BULK OF PCPN
REMAINS W OF FCA...ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH.
OVERALL MILD TEMPS WILL BE A GIVEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AFTER THE FIRST ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON...MOST OF SAT WILL BE
DRY...AFTER THAT THREAT -F -SHRA WILL INCR SUN...AN A GOOD BIT OF
THE MODEL SUITE AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD IT OFF TILL LATE IN
THE DAY.
AFTER SUN AFTN CHC -SHRA/RA CONTINUES INTO TUES WITHOUT MUCH ABILITY
TO TIMING. WILL POPULATE GRIDS WITH HPC...BUT HOLD DON POPS FOR
THE DAY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY FROM A
WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...GUSTING AS HIGH AS
30-35KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
THE SUSTAINED WIND WILL BETWEEN 15-20KTS BY MIDDAY.
CIGS...AT MAINLY KALB AND KPSF WILL IN THE 5000-6000 FOOT RANGE.
THE WIND WILL SLACKEN A LITTLE TONIGHT BUT NOT ENTIRELY. LOOK FOR A
WSW TO AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO AROUND 20KTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE EVEN IF THERE ARE OCCASIONAL CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NW OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BNDRY STALLED OVER THE NW
CARIB/CENTRAL BAHAMAS. POST FRONTAL SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ENE FROM
THE NW GOMEX...ACRS THE FL BIG BEND...OUT TOWARD BERMUDA...WHILE THE
H100-H70 MEAN RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER S FL AND THE NRN BAHAMAS. THE
EVENING SOUNDINGS MAP OUT THIS PATTERN WELL WITH KJAX MEASURING
LGT/VRBL WINDS THRU THE H100-H90 LYR BEFORE FRESHENING OUT OF THE
WEST ABV H85...KTBW/KMFL HAVE THE SAME BRISK WRLY FLOW ABV H85 BUT A
SOLID 15-20KT N/NE FLOW THRU H100-H90. PRONOUNCED MOISTURE BNDRY
ACRS S FL WITH PWAT VALUES ARND 1.6" AT KMFL/KEYW...DROPPING TO AOB
0.4" AT KTBW...AND 0.1" AT KJAX/KTAE.
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM ARND 40F ALONG AND N OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO L50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LINGERING UPR LVL
CI DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE SRN PENINSULA BUT HAS LARGELY
THINNED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA. SFC WNDS HOLDING ARND
10MPH AREAWIDE BUT THE WEAKER PGRAD N OF I-4 DUE TO THE POSITION OF
THE SFC RIDGE MAY ALLOW THE BNDRY LYR TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW TO DVLP THAT WOULD PULL LWR
DEWPOINT AIR DOWN FROM THE GAINESVILLE/OCALA REGION. SHOULD LOWS
DROP INTO THE M/U30S AS ADVERTISED ACROSS LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FROST WOULD DVLP ESPECIALLY IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS.
FURTHER S...THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT FROM THE
ORLANDO METROPLEX WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M40S OVER THE
INTERIOR S OF I-4...IN THE U40S/L50S ALONG THE SPACE COAST...AND
M/U50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
AFTN FCST PACKAGE LOOKS FINE...WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING BUT NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 20/15Z...N/NW 5-10KTS. AFT 20/15Z...N/NE 10-15KTS.
CIGS/VSYBS: THRU 21/00Z...VFR ALL SITES WITH PREVAILING CIGS AOA
FL120...LCL CIGS BTWN FL040-060 S OF KFPR-KOBE THRU 20/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GOMEX WILL MAINTAIN A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NRLY BREEZE. DATA BUOYS STILL MEASURING 4-5FT
SEAS...MAINLY IN A NERLY SWELL...SEAS HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM DUE
TO THE OPPOSING NRLY WIND/SRLY CURRENT. LAND BASED TOWERS ARE STILL
MEASURING 15-20KT NERLY WINDS TO THE SE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SFC BASED PGRAD ACRS S FL/NRN BAHAMAS REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THESE WINDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PD. CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE LEG S OF
SEBASTIAN INLET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
101 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN
A CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST SOUTH OF
FLL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT APF AROUND 9Z...THEN
ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK AND INCREASE INTO THE
MODERATE RANGE. A LOW-LEVEL STABLE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH
A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF CYCLE OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO EVENING UPDATES BUT DID
REALIGN THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL LAGGING WAY BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER BAND CURRENTLY
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS BAND WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT AND THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HINTS AT SO TOOK THIS
APPROACH.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL VERY LATE. THE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER CENTRAL FL ARE DISSIPATING AND THE HRRR SHOWS IT RAIN-FREE
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY DAWN AS
THE FRONT MOVES BY AND WINDS TURN NW. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH
VFR/DRY THROUGH DAWN THEN VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT FOR THE
DAY TUE. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE CONUS SINCE
THIS WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BEAR IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING ITS BASE HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DIVING INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE FRONTS EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT BY THE TIME THE FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN
CWA...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL AS
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTMS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT DECAYING SQUALL FEATURE MAKES IT NORTH OF
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE LINE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL
MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT HIS INHIBITED MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN SOARING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEST PALM BEACH HAS ALREADY
REACHED A DAILY RECORD WITH MAXIMA AT LEAST 88F. MIAMI AND FORT
LAUDERDALE ALSO HAVE RECORDS THAT ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION OVER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRONG
COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL CAUSING
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS...MAXIMA
LIKELY TO BE NEAR 12Z TUESDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RANGE FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO AROUND 60F ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND WEDNESDAYS MAXIMA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...OVERTOP THE
COOL AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK...ALLOWING NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND COASTAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INLAND FROM THE EAST FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RIDGE IS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SUBSEQUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED SHRAS/TSRAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEHIND IT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FROPA AROUND 10Z-12Z AT KPBI AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AT THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST SITES. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...THEREFORE KEPT ONLY VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. GENERALLY
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE. PREVAILED MVFR FOR NOW AS
INDICATED BY SREF PROBABILITIES.
MARINE...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING NEARLY
IMMEDIATE 25 KTS NORTH WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 57 72 63 / 60 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 60 74 65 / 50 20 40 20
MIAMI 76 59 73 65 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 68 48 68 55 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1012 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE HIGH
WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
BENEATH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTED EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNABATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS COMPELLED A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF HOURLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S
AT MANY LOCATIONS.
LATER TONIGHT...LATEST NAM/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH ALLOWING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN TO
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. IF THIS OCCURS...HOURLY TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME UNSTEADY AND COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD OFFSET A
SUBTLE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINTAINING LIGHT
WINDS AND CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DETAILS OF THIS SCENARIO...THE LATEST FORECAST DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY LATE TONIGHT.
ALSO OF NOTE...THE LATEST RUC DEPICTS RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING NEAR
THE LOWER ALTAMAHA RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS
NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIGHT WINDS...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FOG WITHIN
PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ASSESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY ROTATES EASTWARD AND OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. DEEP DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO BE RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. DURING THE DAY...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL THEN BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES IMPROVE AND HIGHS WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 IN MOST
AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY YET AGAIN...FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THESE HIGHS/LOWS
WOULD STILL BE 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AND
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAKE A RUN FOR INLAND
AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S
ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS
NEAR 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS UP TO 60-70 PERCENT OVER MOST
AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD TO START OFF THE
WEEK...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTS OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY...THEN
MID/UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY...WITH FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR
SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE AXIS OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID
60S ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY INTO MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A WELL/MIXED MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
AT LEAST 10-15 KT. OCCASIONAL WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND BEYOND...BUT
THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 1-2 FT...AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO 3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP WITH THE HIGH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING ADVISORIES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND EVEN AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
TIME BEHIND A LIFTING WARM FRONT. ANY ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 20TH...
KCHS...25 SET IN 1951.
KCXM...28 SET IN 1951.
KSAV...24 SET IN 1914.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Flurries continue to affect much of central IL this evening under
a weak shortwave in the strong W-NW flow. A band of low clouds
associated with the feature will persist the rest of the evening
and most likely well after midnight before dry air above the cloud
layer creates some clearing. Satellite images show breaks in the
clouds upstream, so periods of clearing should progress across the
area later tonight. That clearing and some decrease in wind speeds
should help low temps dip to forecast numbers in the mid-upper
teens by sunrise Thursday. W-NW winds of 8-12 mph will push wind
chill readings down into the single digits after midnight.
High pressure will advance east into IL on Thursday, providing
mostly clear skies and continued cold conditions. However, winds
should be lighter under the ridge axis and weaker pressure gradient.
Updates this evening were mainly to the sky grids to match
expected trends. We kept clouds around longer after midnight, but
still expect clearing for tomorrow morning. Updated info is
already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Breezy and cold weather will be the rule across central Illinois
tonight. 19z/1pm surface analysis shows cold front exiting into
Indiana, while ridge of high pressure builds into the Plains.
Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to create
W/NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Gustiness will
begin to subside toward sunset: however, with ridge axis staying
west of Illinois until Thursday, gradient will remain tight enough
to support winds of around 10 mph through the night. Clouds and a
few flurries will prevail early in the evening, with the big weather
question being how fast skies will clear later tonight. Widespread
cloud cover is currently evident on satellite imagery from Illinois
northwestward to the US/Canada border: however, several holes in the
overcast have developed upstream across the Dakotas/Minnesota. All
model guidance suggests clouds will begin to scatter this evening,
with mostly clear conditions expected overnight. Given current
satellite imagery and continued deep northwesterly flow, think this
is too fast. Have therefore gone with a slower clearing trend more
in line with the HRRR solution. End result will be cloudy skies
this evening, followed by gradual clearing overnight. Due to the
clouds and continued breeze, have gone with the higher end of
numeric guidance for lows tonight, with readings ranging from 14
degrees in Galesburg to around 20 degrees south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Moisture channel satellite imagery and the morning upper air shows
deep upper level trof over eastern US with main jet from central
Canada into the midwest. This upper flow will bring in another surge
of cold air, with cold surface high moving into region during the
day Thursday and Thursday night. With clear skies by Thursday night,
have lowered Friday morning lows some due to light winds and cold
airmass.
Main precipitation concern is for Friday evening and Friday night,
as overrunning precipitation develops from AR into MO ahead of
digging shortwave in the southwest US. Precipitation will reach
central IL Friday evening, so temperature forecast will be critical,
as warm air aloft will produce precipitation in form of rain.
A detailed look at the model surface temperature forecasts depicts
EUR warmest, GFS, and NAM coolest. Feel the warming temperatures
will be blend of GFS and NAM, as conditions will start off cooler
Friday morning, as lowered morning lows. Feel current forecast grids
a good compromise and so looks like pcpn will start in evening
Friday as light freezing rain, with the freezing line gradually
moving to the northeast overnight. Pcpn amounts still look to be
light, so impacts will be on the light scale.
Saturday pcpn will be rain, as overrunning pcpn continues to develop
and move into the region. Strongest dynamics look to be on Sunday,
as the shortwave system and surface low approach and move through
region.
Models are similar in the movement of system, with low center
tracking just west of the cwa Sunday, with front moving through area
and gusty winds. Vertical stacking of the upper low over Lake MI on
Sunday night.
Cool conditions will conditions into midweek, as the upper low
gradually moves off and allows another cool high pressure area into
the midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Strong W/NW winds will highlight the early TAF forecast as gusts
to 30kt still showing up from PIA to BMI. Pressure rises of 2-3mb
per 3-hours will continue through around 3z/9pm behind the cold
front, so will continue gusts at all terminal sites through that
time. After that, pressure rises slow down, but a continued
pressure gradient across the NE half of IL will help keep
sustained winds in the 12-15kt range for at least the northern
terminals of PIA/BMI/CMI.
2330z/530pm satellite imagery shows breaks in the low cloud cover
upstream across Iowa and S MN, but a channel of clouds from W Iowa
back into SD/ND streaming toward SPI and DEC. Forecast soundings
are generally pessimistic with cloud cover through the night, but
still expect some clearing to develop later tonight. Most cloud
cover will be VFR anyway, so the clearing will not be a major
change in flight category. However, ceilings are hovering right
around 3k ft near PIA/BMI, so a brief period of MVFR cloud heights
can not be ruled out there.
Once the skies clear out, we expect enough dry air mixing tomorrow
to prevent any BKN cloud decks from forming, but moisture will
remain in the 2-3k ft layer according to forecast moisture
profiles. Winds will be less gusty than today, but sustained winds
will climb back into the 12-15kt range through the day from the west.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
856 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
854 PM CST
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SATELLITE SHOWING SOME SUBSTANTIAL GAPS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST AND NORTH. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SCATTERING/CLEARING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE MN/WI BORDER REGION
WORKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE PERIODIC GAPS IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS THOUGH ADJUSTED HOURLY TRENDS WITH
CLEARING LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK FEW DEGREE DROP BASED ON UPSTREAM
TRENDS...BUT STEADY WINDS WILL LIMIT MORE OF A DROP.
MDB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 PM...COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER PUNCH OF
COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME SCATTERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FLURRIES
AND FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ONLY A DUSTING...AT THE MOST...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT IT
WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BLUSTERY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS BY
MORNING...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO.
STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 20S
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY TANK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME SUNSHINE AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 PM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY...FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
POSSIBLE VERY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BROAD WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN FALLING FRIDAY EVENING...FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER A WEEK AND A HALF OF MAINLY
SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND HIGH TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SURFACES
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET...BULK OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF OF BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE THE FREEZING LINE TO ABOUT THE I-80
CORRIDOR BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY SLOWER/COLDER
THAN THESE MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO
MID MORNING SATURDAY AND CONSIDERING WINDS ARE ALL SOUTHERLY
DURING THIS EVENT...WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MIGHT ARRIVE SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER. NEVERTHELESS...ANY AMOUNT OF ICING WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...SO AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...THESE
TRENDS WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP TIMING/DURATION.
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY...HIGHS MAY
REACH THE MID 40S BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WITH NO CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST. HOW DENSE IT BECOMES OR HOW LONG IT PERSISTS IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TURN NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO AS
LOW AS 973MB BY MONDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST WI AS SHOWN BY THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF. WHILE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR NO WINTER PRECIP
CONCERNS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE TRACK WILL BE IMPORTANT
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACH INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH EVENT TOTAL QPF FROM THE MODELS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AND
IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE FALLING ONTO FROZEN OR
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND. THUS...AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...
HYDRO ISSUES MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STRONG
WINDS AND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z-03Z LEADING TO TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITY.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE TAF...WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF 25-30 KT THROUGH 03Z.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON...THAT IS GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS...CLOUDY...AND FLURRIES...WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY-MID EVENING DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINING
IN PLACE. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VISIBILITY ARE NOTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST IL BUT ANY 4-5SM VISIBILITY AT THE AIRPORTS SHOULD
BE BRIEF. SCATTERING AND LIFTING OF CLOUDS ARE SEEN UPSTREAM ON
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO START THURSDAY
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FILLING IN OF CLOUDS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SKY SHOULD
TREND TOWARD CLEARING AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FINALLY COME DOWN AFTER
ANOTHER GUSTY DAY THURSDAY.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER TIMING AND THAT ANY REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY WILL BE BRIEF.
* HIGH IN WIND FORECAST.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP AND/OR ICE PELLETS LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY WITH FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE NIGHT. AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR LIKELY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...IFR AND RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Breezy and cold weather will be the rule across central Illinois
tonight. 19z/1pm surface analysis shows cold front exiting into
Indiana, while ridge of high pressure builds into the Plains.
Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to create
W/NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Gustiness will
begin to subside toward sunset: however, with ridge axis staying
west of Illinois until Thursday, gradient will remain tight enough
to support winds of around 10 mph through the night. Clouds and a
few flurries will prevail early in the evening, with the big weather
question being how fast skies will clear later tonight. Widespread
cloud cover is currently evident on satellite imagery from Illinois
northwestward to the US/Canada border: however, several holes in the
overcast have developed upstream across the Dakotas/Minnesota. All
model guidance suggests clouds will begin to scatter this evening,
with mostly clear conditions expected overnight. Given current
satellite imagery and continued deep northwesterly flow, think this
is too fast. Have therefore gone with a slower clearing trend more
in line with the HRRR solution. End result will be cloudy skies
this evening, followed by gradual clearing overnight. Due to the
clouds and continued breeze, have gone with the higher end of
numeric guidance for lows tonight, with readings ranging from 14
degrees in Galesburg to around 20 degrees south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Moisture channel satellite imagery and the morning upper air shows
deep upper level trof over eastern US with main jet from central
Canada into the midwest. This upper flow will bring in another surge
of cold air, with cold surface high moving into region during the
day Thursday and Thursday night. With clear skies by Thursday night,
have lowered Friday morning lows some due to light winds and cold
airmass.
Main precipitation concern is for Friday evening and Friday night,
as overrunning precipitation develops from AR into MO ahead of
digging shortwave in the southwest US. Precipitation will reach
central IL Friday evening, so temperature forecast will be critical,
as warm air aloft will produce precipitation in form of rain.
A detailed look at the model surface temperature forecasts depicts
EUR warmest, GFS, and NAM coolest. Feel the warming temperatures
will be blend of GFS and NAM, as conditions will start off cooler
Friday morning, as lowered morning lows. Feel current forecast grids
a good compromise and so looks like pcpn will start in evening
Friday as light freezing rain, with the freezing line gradually
moving to the northeast overnight. Pcpn amounts still look to be
light, so impacts will be on the light scale.
Saturday pcpn will be rain, as overrunning pcpn continues to develop
and move into the region. Strongest dynamics look to be on Sunday,
as the shortwave system and surface low approach and move through
region.
Models are similar in the movement of system, with low center
tracking just west of the cwa Sunday, with front moving through area
and gusty winds. Vertical stacking of the upper low over Lake MI on
Sunday night.
Cool conditions will conditions into midweek, as the upper low
gradually moves off and allows another cool high pressure area into
the midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Strong W/NW winds will highlight the early TAF forecast as gusts
to 30kt still showing up from PIA to BMI. Pressure rises of 2-3mb
per 3-hours will continue through around 3z/9pm behind the cold
front, so will continue gusts at all terminal sites through that
time. After that, pressure rises slow down, but a continued
pressure gradient across the NE half of IL will help keep
sustained winds in the 12-15kt range for at least the northern
terminals of PIA/BMI/CMI.
2330z/530pm satellite imagery shows breaks in the low cloud cover
upstream across Iowa and S MN, but a channel of clouds from W Iowa
back into SD/ND streaming toward SPI and DEC. Forecast soundings
are generally pessimistic with cloud cover through the night, but
still expect some clearing to develop later tonight. Most cloud
cover will be VFR anyway, so the clearing will not be a major
change in flight category. However, ceilings are hovering right
around 3k ft near PIA/BMI, so a brief period of MVFR cloud heights
can not be ruled out there.
Once the skies clear out, we expect enough dry air mixing tomorrow
to prevent any BKN cloud decks from forming, but moisture will
remain in the 2-3k ft layer according to forecast moisture
profiles. Winds will be less gusty than today, but sustained winds
will climb back into the 12-15kt range through the day from the west.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SHIFT TO JUST THE MICHIGAN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE WIND TURNS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH AROUND 20 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND RANGE FROM MINUS 3 TO 6 TONIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND
ISSUES AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER
WI HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS
FEATURE...CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS
TO PERSIST WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER
HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER
CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND
CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO 15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT
ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN.
COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO
CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS.
STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS
AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS
FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE
FALLING OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST
AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY
BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS
STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY
TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART
STILL SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER
GARCIA/MIXING RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS
INDICATED WITH OVER 2 G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES
BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED
FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF KSBN AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS STILL SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INFRINGING ON THE AIRPORT FROM TIME TO TIME
SO WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS THOUGHTS OF MAINLY MVFR IMPACTS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KSBN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MATCH WITH
KFWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE
AREA TOWARDS 12Z WEDS AND BRING WITH IT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
BOTH SITES FOR A 4 TO MAYBE 6 HOUR WINDOW. AT THIS POINT THINK
IMPACTS SHOULD HOLD JUST OUTSIDE OF IFR RANGE BUT COULD BE CLOSE.
WILL RUN WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES AND AN UPTICK IN WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1205 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SHIFT TO JUST THE MICHIGAN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE WIND TURNS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH AROUND 20 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND RANGE FROM MINUS 3 TO 6 TONIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND ISSUES
AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER WI
HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE...CROSSING
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS TO PERSIST
WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH
LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO.
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO
15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR
TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN. COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF
SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE
TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS. STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY
WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS FROM
00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE FALLING
OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING
RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY
AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS
MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART STILL
SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER GARCIA/MIXING
RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS INDICATED WITH OVER 2
G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN
AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T
VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
925-850MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A MORE NORTHWEST ORIENTATION LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A DOMINATE SOUTHERN BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO KSBN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RATHER
STATIONARY BAND AND LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BAND MAY
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW REMAINS 925-850MB FLOW REMAINS
WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL MID MORNING. THUS HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE MID MORNING. FLOW
THEN BACKS SOUTHWEST AND SNOW SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF KSBN. KFWA
CURRENTLY VFR BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN INDIANA HEADING EAST SO MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
946 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES FROM AROUND ZERO
TO TEN BELOW ZERO.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND ISSUES
AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER WI
HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE...CROSSING
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS TO PERSIST
WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH
LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO.
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO
15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR
TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN. COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF
SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE
TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS. STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY
WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS FROM
00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE FALLING
OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING
RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY
AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS
MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART STILL
SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER GARCIA/MIXING
RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS INDICATED WITH OVER 2
G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN
AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T
VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
925-850MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A MORE NORTHWEST ORIENTATION LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A DOMINATE SOUTHERN BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO KSBN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RATHER
STATIONARY BAND AND LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BAND MAY
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW REMAINS 925-850MB FLOW REMAINS
WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL MID MORNING. THUS HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE MID MORNING. FLOW
THEN BACKS SOUTHWEST AND SNOW SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF KSBN. KFWA
CURRENTLY VFR BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN INDIANA HEADING EAST SO MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
433 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES FROM AROUND ZERO
TO TEN BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND ISSUES
AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRESW ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER WI
HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE...CROSSING
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS TO PERSIST WITH
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH LAST
REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO 15 TO
18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL VARY WITH
AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR TOLL ROAD
AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN. COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE AND
DIURNAL TIMING TO CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE TO BANDS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT THROUGH THE DAY
AS FLOW BACKS. STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY WILL CREATE
HAVOC ON ROADS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS FROM
00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE FALLING
OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING
RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY
AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS
MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART STILL
SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER GARCIA/MIXING
RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS INDICATED WITH OVER 2
G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN
AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T
VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
925-850MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A MORE NORTHWEST ORIENTATION LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A DOMINATE SOUTHERN BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO KSBN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RATHER
STATIONARY BAND AND LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BAND MAY
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW REMAINS 925-850MB FLOW REMAINS
WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL MID MORNING. THUS HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE MID MORNING. FLOW
THEN BACKS SOUTHWEST AND SNOW SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF KSBN. KFWA
CURRENTLY VFR BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN INDIANA HEADING EAST SO MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
210 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ONLY SOME CU AND STRATOCU LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES HAVE ENDED. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED
INTO THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER. HOURLY SKY...TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS...SKY...AND WX FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ALL
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHINGS TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
SOME CU AND STRATOCU IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 23Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 6Z TO 9Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN BETWEEN 22Z AND 0Z...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO 10KT OR MORE
AFTER 14Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1053 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS...SKY...AND WX FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ALL
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE LAST OF THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SJS AND JKL TAF
SITES WITH STILL A CHANCE OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED A
TEMPO FOR THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE
CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING OR COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. HIGH CIGS
MAY RETURN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT AFFECT GENERAL AVIATION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY WITH
INCREASED GUSTINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE 4 TO
10 DEGREE RANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THEY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS...SKY...AND WX FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ALL
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE LAST OF THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SJS AND JKL TAF
SITES WITH STILL A CHANCE OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED A
TEMPO FOR THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE
CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING OR COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. HIGH CIGS
MAY RETURN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT AFFECT GENERAL AVIATION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY WITH
INCREASED GUSTINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE 4 TO
10 DEGREE RANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THEY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SYM...SJS...AND JKL TAF SITES
WITH TIMES OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. THE CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE SNOW FADES OUT...COMPLETELY DISAPPEARING
DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT THEN PICK UP DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH INCREASED GUSTINESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN SO...THEY
ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW PLACES.
EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MANY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS ENDED UP SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHER THAN
IT ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES AND PATTERNS ALOFT...BUT LACK THE SAME AT THE SFC AND WITH
SENSIBLE WEATHER. DEEP...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR RECENT SUCCESSION OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL SEE
ONE LAST BATCH OF ENERGY DROP INTO ITS BASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WEATHER PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED FLOW THEREAFTER TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS POOREST DURING THE TRANSITION IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH OUR AREA
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM. A DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOW ENTERS THE
FORECAST PICTURE AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS OF
A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND AS SUCH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE MODERATE TYPE
WEATHER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE.
MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC DETAILS OF A MID WEEK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS THE NAM AND GFS STILL APPEAR TO FOCUS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW TOPPED...ISOLD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM DURING A LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA DRY. BASED ON LATEST SOLUTIONS DID EXTEND
POPS SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE CWA WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. ALSO
BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH DETAILS OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE WITH THE
GENERAL SCENARIO OF A QUICK RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE MORE INDECISIVE WITH SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE
MAIN STORM SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE GFS DOES HINT AT SOME
INSTABILITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BUT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF
YEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WAS NOT READY TO INTRODUCE
ANY THUNDER ATTM. ALSO...WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TENDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. THAT BEING THE CASE EXPECT A GRADUALLY
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY WITH
RESPECT TO DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SYM...SJS...AND JKL TAF SITES
WITH TIMES OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. THE CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE SNOW FADES OUT...COMPLETELY DISAPPEARING
DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT THEN PICK UP DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH INCREASED GUSTINESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
448 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.
SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.
TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.
ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED ONCE AGAIN
IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 24 HOUR /12IN OR
MORE/ WARNING CRITERIA IF BANDED PRECIP STAYS OVER E ALGER AND N
PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY. WILL NOT HOIST ANY NEW HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING ADVISORIES OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LES GOING...AS NOTED ABOVE...BEHIND THE
EXITING SFC LOW OVER N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS THROUGH
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH
EXITS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
AT THAT POINT WE WILL BRIEFLY SAY GOODBYE TO OUR COLD WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG WAA WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W /FROM A SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER ONE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE S PLAINS/. LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
30S SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL LOW OVER MANITOBA
WILL SKIRT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC
RIDGE ERODING ACROSS UPPER MI.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE /OR MORE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN IF THE HIGHER QPF LIKE THAT FROM THE 18/12Z
ECMWF PAN OUT. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST...SO WILL ONLY ADD THE MENTION
FOR NOW AND WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PRECIP /FREEZING DRIZZLE/.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF
THE S STREAM LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ND/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THE S LOW TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE MI/ILLINOIS BY 00Z
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS E UPPER MI/W LAKE HURON BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. HOW MUCH OF THAT FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN/OVER
OUR SNOW PACK IS IN QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.
SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.
TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.
ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE HEAVY LES BAND THAT WAS IMPACTING NE DELTA COUNTY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE E. SINCE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL ALLOW ONLY SCT LES TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF DELTA COUNTY TODAY...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY.
RECEIVED A REPORT OF 8.5 INCHES OF SN NEAR NEWBERRY AT 7 AM. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LES THERE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
SHIFTING BANDS WITH THE BACKING FLOW AS WELL AS GOOD SN/WATER
RATIOS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY TO A WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE HEAVY LES BAND THAT WAS IMPACTING NE DELTA COUNTY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE E. SINCE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL ALLOW ONLY SCT LES TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF DELTA COUNTY TODAY...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY.
RECEIVED A REPORT OF 8.5 INCHES OF SN NEAR NEWBERRY AT 7 AM. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LES THERE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
SHIFTING BANDS WITH THE BACKING FLOW AS WELL AS GOOD SN/WATER
RATIOS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY TO A WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE HEAVY LES BAND THAT WAS IMPACTING NE DELTA COUNTY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE E. SINCE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL ALLOW ONLY SCT LES TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF DELTA COUNTY TODAY...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY.
RECEIVED A REPORT OF 8.5 INCHES OF SN NEAR NEWBERRY AT 7 AM. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LES THERE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
SHIFTING BANDS WITH THE BACKING FLOW AS WELL AS GOOD SN/WATER
RATIOS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY TO A WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT CMX/IWD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL IMPROVE
THRU THE DAY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS DEEP MSTR/CYC NW WINDS AND THE
SHSN/BLSN DIMINISH. SINCE THE FLOW WL BACK TO THE SW AT IWD LATER
TODAY...THE CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH THIS
BACKING SFC WIND...SOME HEAVIER SHSN ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT CMX THIS
EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE SW...LIFTING THE LES
BANDS TO THE NE OF THAT SITE AND ALLOWING AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO IWD LATE WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE/SOME LOWER CLDS AND -SN.
AT SAW...WITH A DOWNSLOPING WNW BACKING SW WIND...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT MVFR CIGS WL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES
THRU THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT CMX/IWD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL IMPROVE
THRU THE DAY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS DEEP MSTR/CYC NW WINDS AND THE
SHSN/BLSN DIMINISH. SINCE THE FLOW WL BACK TO THE SW AT IWD LATER
TODAY...THE CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH THIS
BACKING SFC WIND...SOME HEAVIER SHSN ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT CMX THIS
EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE SW...LIFTING THE LES
BANDS TO THE NE OF THAT SITE AND ALLOWING AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO IWD LATE WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE/SOME LOWER CLDS AND -SN.
AT SAW...WITH A DOWNSLOPING WNW BACKING SW WIND...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT MVFR CIGS WL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES
THRU THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND GUSTY NW WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EXIT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND
THEN TO MVFR BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MOST OF FCST PERIOD WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO UPGRADE BARAGA COUNTY FROM LES ADVISORY
TO WARNING. WE JUST RECEIVED A PUBLIC REPORT NEAR ALSTON OF 10" IN
12 HOURS IN THE PAST HR. GIVEN THAT MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE GOOD
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A STRETCH FOR PLACES ALONG THE HOUGHTON COUNTY BORDER TO
SEE STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 14 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO
SEE SOME STORM TOTALS APPROACH A FOOT OR MORE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS SE OF L`ANSE AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN HEAVIER
LES BANDS OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE REST OF THE HEADLINES..AND
SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
CONTINENT AND A SHARP...DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE CNTRL
PART. WITH THE RIDGE...THE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY PEAKS AT 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER FAR NW
CANADA WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM TROF IS DEEPENING TOWARD 3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW AVG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EVENING.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SFC
TROF EXTENDING SW INTO WRN UPPER MI. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL/CWPL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING UP PAST 500MB WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -19/-20C RESPECTIVELY...OBVIOUSLY A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HVY
SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LES TRENDS/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
HEADLINES.
MDT/HVY SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE AND ESSENTIALLY AN ABSENT INVERSION ALLOW FOR DEEP LAKE
EFFECT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DGZ IS ONLY AROUND 2KFT THICK...FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IT IDEALLY PLACED WITHIN MAX UPWARD MOTION. HIGHER
RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT IN AN AREA FROM KIWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND ALSO
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. THUS...
EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE W GETS A BETTER
BOOST FROM TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...A NICE LAKE NIPIGON CONNECTION AND
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE OFF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN BOTH AREAS MAY SEE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 20 INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW
DIMINISHES/ENDS. OTHERWISE...12-18 INCHES OF SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
THE RULE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY
EXTEND INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. IF DOMINANT BAND SETS UP AND
DOESN`T MOVE MUCH FOR SEVERAL HRS...AMOUNTS MAY SNEAK INTO WARNING
CRITERIA THERE. OVER NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH SUB WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN LACK OF
ENHANCING FACTORS THAT ARE PRESENT IN THE OTHER AFORMENTIONED
AREAS. BEST POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE SOUTH OF
PAINESDALE AND PERHAPS NRN KEWEENAW COUNTY AS LAKE NIPIGON
CONNECTION MAY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...SO THAT WILL BE A FACTOR
SUPPORTING MAINTAINING WARNING HEADLINES FOR NOW. CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE
COUNTY. HAVE LOWERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BRUSHING THE SHORELINE AREAS.
IN PARTICULAR...THE AREA TOWARD SHOT POINT MAY BE AFFECTED BY HVY
SNOW AT TIMES. WRN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY SEE FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NW.
FOR NOW...MAINTAINED MARQUETTE COUNTY ADVY...BUT EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP ADVY IF IT DOES APPEAR HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN E.
ON TUE...DEEP MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS E...LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC AND OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS
WILL SPELL DIMINISHING LES FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY. BACKING WINDS
WILL PUSH LINGERING -SHSN N OF KIWD DURING THE AFTN AND SHIFT THE
BACK EDGE OF LES EASTWARD WITH TIME IN CNTRL UPPER MI. THOSE BACKING
WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A NARROW ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING
N OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATER IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN A NARROW
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING N TOWARD HOUGHTON IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND GUSTY NW WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EXIT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND
THEN TO MVFR BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MOST OF FCST PERIOD WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES LOOK RATHER STRONG ON
RADAR WITH 20-25DBZ ECHOES SEEN BETWEEN 8700-10000FT. ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA SOUTH TOWARD KHYR.
THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A GRAVITY WAVE AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO BACK. THE RAP INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE GRAVITY WAVE BAND TO REFORM/INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE AS THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS
STRONG...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
AT 352 PM...SNOW HAD STARTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE OF IRON COUNTY. OUR SNOWFALL OBSERVER IN GILE
REPORTED 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL TODAY...BUT IT HAD JUST RECENTLY
STARTED TO INTENSIFY. FURTHER WEST...4 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN
IN THE IRON RIVER AREA...FROM PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THAT HAD SET
UP IN THAT AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS
GENERALLY SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH SHORE THERE WAS LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS DEFINITELY THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT A BIT TOO WESTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE WRF INDICATE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BECOME INTENSE DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF UP TO AN AMAZING 5 KM. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
AREA...FOR A TOTAL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. FURTHER WEST...WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY...WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY DROP
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW IN MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS EAST THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ALONG A DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
/AROUND 80 KTS AT H5/ AND WITH AROUND 24 HOURS OF COLD /850MB TEMPS
AS COLD AS -20 C/ NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS THERE MAY BE SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SKIES
WILL BE OVERCAST MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THURSDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE THURS/EARLY FRI RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
MID/LOW LEVELS FRI/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS RISE AS WARM AS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING FRI/SAT AND LIKELY ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH UP
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IF
IT TRENDS WESTWARD AS THE ECMWF IS HINTING THEN SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
AND CLOUDIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING WITH POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES AS WELL. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUED TO FALL IN SPOTS AND WE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
INCREASING WAA WILL CAUSE LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING BACK INTO MVFR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 2 17 6 20 / 30 0 40 20
INL 0 18 7 19 / 50 20 40 40
BRD 0 16 7 18 / 20 0 40 10
HYR 2 16 3 20 / 70 10 60 30
ASX 7 19 7 23 / 80 30 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ002.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
831 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR ROUNDUP
AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO JUST A FEW MILES EAST OF BILLINGS.
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH AND THIS ALONG WITH ERODING STRATUS DECK IN THE EAST WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS. FRONT WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF FOG FOR BILLINGS BY 12Z. THE ONLY OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO INCREASE WINDS AT LIVINGSTON
AND NEAR NYE AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. GUSTS
WILL BE IN 35 MPH RANGE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO NEAR
LAME DEER E TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR IN THE FOG. THE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ABOVE AREAS THU AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THU. LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS THU
AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
00/B 00/B 13/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
00/N 00/N 14/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
00/B 00/B 03/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
00/B 00/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 22/J 32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
00/B 00/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 23/J 32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
00/B 00/B 01/B 33/J 22/J 23/J 22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
00/B 10/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 23/J 33/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE
YUKON AND ALASKA. FURTHER EAST...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY...SOUTH TO LAKE SUPERIOR. A TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...A NICE
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN AND NRN ALBERTA. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. MORE ABOUT THAT BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WERE MAINLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO ERICSON. TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 AM CST RANGED FROM -8 AT VALENTINE...TO 14 AT ONEILL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY WINDS /10 TO 20 KTS/ BEHIND TROUGH/WARM
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IML HAS ALREADY JUMPED TO 48 DEGREES WITH
LOWER 50S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. RUC AND HRRR HAVE JUMPED ON THE
WARMER TEMPS AND BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR FAR SW. STILL
CHILLY ACROSS THE SNOWPACK OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. FORECAST
UPDATE HAS A CONSERVATIVE CATEGORY OR TWO TREND UP FOLLOWING A
BLEND OF THE RUC/HRRR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOR TODAY SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. WARMER H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM
-3 IN THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 5C IN THE SOUTHWEST. INTERPOLATING
THESE 00Z TEMPS TO THE 18Z H85 TEMPS...YIELDS AROUND 2 TO 3C FOR
NORTH PLATTE AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING...THIS YIELDS THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE OF
41 THIS AFTERNOON. THE MET IS MUCH COOLER AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A
SNOW COVER BIAS ACROSS THE AREA AND WAS DISREGARDED FOR TDYS FCST.
OTHER ASPECTS WHICH MAY HOLD DOWN HIGHS TODAY ARE THE COLD
START...IE STARTING TEMPS AROUND ZERO...AND THE FROZEN GROUND
CONDS...EVEN IN AREAS WHICH ARE NOT SNOW COVERED. IN
ADDITION...MIXING WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TDY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...UTILIZED GFS H85 TEMPS AT 21Z FOR FORECAST HIGHS TDY. THIS
YIELDED HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 47 FOR IMPERIAL. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO...FORCING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND BREEZY CONDS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND THE FROPA IN THE SURFACE
TO H850 LAYER WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER IS WEAK AT BEST...WITH
THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER. EVEN
WITH LIMITED LIFT...HARD TO RULE OUT FLURRIES GIVEN THE STRONG CAA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THAT THREAT WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...AND THEN WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM THE
ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA THIS PAST WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
VERY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN STILL IN PLACE...THEN AS
THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH HAS
BEEN DRIVING TROUGH ALSO BEGINS TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS TO
CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH THIS OCCURRING AND ARE QUITE
SIMILAR IN FORECASTING SPLIT FLOW TAKING SHAPE...AND WITH THE
GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH BOTH THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN SOME OF THE DETAILS TO KEEP SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN TAKING
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX. EVEN WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MIXED LAYER UP TO 825-850MB. WINDS
ALOFT /AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/ STAY HIGHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES STILL AT 20-25KTS AT PEAK HEATING. DO HAVE
THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO
CONTINUE SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE INVERSION
BEGINS TO SET UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION...TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAT WILL
BE SEEN TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE WARMER WHERE 850MB TEMPS LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND 0C. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET.
STRONG SUPER-ADIABATIC MIXING TO 850MB WOULD PUT HIGHS UP AROUND 50
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST DON/T
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IF MIXING WILL BE UP TO THAT LEVEL AND WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 40S IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO MUCH ABOVE THAT AT THIS TIME. IN THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...MOST
LIKELY STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
A STREAM OF CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. ANOTHER THING TO LOOK AT FOR
WEDNESDAY IS POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT
THE LIFT IN THE LAYER IS VERY LIGHT OR EVEN NEGLIGIBLE. THE GEM IS
THE MODEL THE MOST EXCITED ABOUT SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH THE NAM BEING
THE ONLY OTHER MODEL TO EVEN DEVELOP SOME QPF. WENT THE CONSERVATIVE
ROUTE AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE ISN/T ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO
ADD SNOW IN RIGHT NOW.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT IS ONGOING.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AS
THE EASTERN CONUS LARGEWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES A BIT FURTHER EAST
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THIS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
BRING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS ISN/T AS
COLD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY BRINGING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A SLOW PROGRESSION
THOUGH SO REALLY DON/T START SEEING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD KEEP THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS AGAIN
FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 40S. EVEN IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT DOES
START TO MOVE IN...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INHIBIT GOOD
MIXING FROM OCCURRING SO WANTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE AND IF THE TREND BEGINS TO BE WARMER LATER SHIFTS CAN MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND CATCHES UP ON SATURDAY
OVER TEXAS. IT THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ITS TRACK KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND GENERALLY ENTIRELY OUT OF
NEBRASKA. ALSO...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SLOWDOWN HAS ALLOWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE BACKED OFF FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BASICALLY ROBS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF
MOISTURE SO THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA.
BOTH SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PHASE TOGETHER ON MONDAY WITH MOISTURE BEING
ABLE TO BE PULLED FAR ENOUGH WEST AROUND THE LOW TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
WHICH OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO RIDGING OVER THE WEST
AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO LOOKING AT A SLIGHT WARM-UP /TO
AROUND NORMAL IN SOME PLACES/ FOR THE WEEKEND BUT COLDER AIR SHOULD
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
VFR AFTERNOON WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. TONIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LOW /MVFR/ CIGS. THE LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO KVTN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS
TOWARDS SUNRISE. MORNING FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND DOES
INCREASE THE CEILING HEIGHT FOR KVTN. MEANWHILE THE FRONT REACHES
KLBF IN THE MORNING HOURS. DID INTRODUCE A BKN025 CIG INTO THE
TAF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HEIGHT OF THE CIG...WHICH
COULD BE IN THE LOWER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
120 PM UPDATE...
LK SNOWS WL CONTINUE PUMMEL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA TONIGHT. LK
SNOWS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HRS IN THE SAME LOCALES. SFC TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS LK HURON AND ACRS NRN LOWER MI WL SWING THRU
AFT MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT SNOWBAND SOUTH INTO EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY.
HWVR, HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND GETS IS THE QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OF HANDLING THE CURRENT SNOWBANDS
QUITE WELL, ENUF TO LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HANDLING OF SNOW
FCST FOR THE OVRNGT. HIRES NMM, ARW, RUC AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 12Z NAM SHOW INTENSE PORTION OF BAND DROPPING INTO EXTRM
NERN ONEIDA CNTY TONIGHT AFT 05Z. THIS BAND LOOKS TO HOLD PRETTY
STEADY-STATE THRU 12Z, POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT WAFFLE TO THE SOUTH
DRG THE OVRNGT.
THUS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENUF TO RAISE A LK EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NRN
ONEIDA CNTY FM 03Z TO 14Z WED WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMS IN A 12-HR PD
RANGING FM 4-7 INCHES. IF THIS BAND OVERPERFORMS THAN CUD EASILY SEE
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS FOR THE BOONVILLE AND WOODGATE AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY UNDER CLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL WV CURRENTLY DROPPING THRU NRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL APPCH
CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WL SERVE TO SHIFT BACK SWRLY FLOW
TWD THE SOUTH AND ALLOW LK SNOWS TO BCM DISRUPTED AND SHIFT NORTH BY
AFTN. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE MRNG HRS. WL
LKLY JUST SEE SLGT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES SKIRTING
THRU CNTRL NY AS WV SHEARS OUT INTO CANADA.
SYSTEM WL GIVE WRN SXNS OF CWA JUST A GLANCING BLOW TOMORROW NGT
WITH JUST MINOR ACCUMS OF SNOW. AS THE TROF LIFTS NORTH AND LOW-LVL
FLOW VEERS ARND TO THE SW AGAIN EXPECT LK SNOWS TO GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN THUR MRNG THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
LK SNOWS WL CONTINUE PUMMEL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA TONIGHT. LK
SNOWS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HRS IN THE SAME LOCALES. SFC TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS LK HURON AND ACRS NRN LOWER MI WL SWING THRU
AFT MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT SNOWBAND SOUTH INTO EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY.
HWVR, HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND GETS IS THE QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OF HANDLING THE CURRENT SNOWBANDS
QUITE WELL, ENUF TO LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HANDLING OF SNOW
FCST FOR THE OVRNGT. HIRES NMM, ARW, RUC AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 12Z NAM SHOW INTENSE PORTION OF BAND DROPPING INTO EXTRM
NERN ONEIDA CNTY TONIGHT AFT 05Z. THIS BAND LOOKS TO HOLD PRETTY
STEADY-STATE THRU 12Z, POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT WAFFLE TO THE SOUTH
DRG THE OVRNGT.
THUS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENUF TO RAISE A LK EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NRN
ONEIDA CNTY FM 03Z TO 14Z WED WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMS IN A 12-HR PD
RANGING FM 4-7 INCHES. IF THIS BAND OVERPERFORMS THAN CUD EASILY SEE
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS FOR THE BOONVILLE AND WOODGATE AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY UNDER CLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
121 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS GOING IN FULL-FORCE THIS MRNG SOUTH OF
BUFFALO WITH REPORTS OF 3 FEET IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CITY WHERE
BAND HAS BEEN PARKED ALL NIGHT. OUR CWA HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MUST
SOME FLURRIES FM LK ERIE, MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH JUST FLURRY MENTION THRU
THE AFTN WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING SOME VRY LGT ECHOES EXTNDG
THIS FAR INLAND AFT 18Z.
LOWERED TEMPS SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THEY HV TAKEN AWHILE TO REALLY
RISE. ONLY EXPECTING LWR 20S AT BEST FOR MOST LOCALES THO DEEPER
VLY LOCATIONS IN NEPA AND THE LK PLAIN MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE INTO
THE M20S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PERUSE MODEL DATA TO SEE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LK
SNOWS ACRS EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WHAT
TO DO WITH WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BUT PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIND CHILLS ARE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS...A RATHER RUDE AWAKENING FOR
US IN WHAT IS BY FAR THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD THIS SEASON.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS A LESS- THAN-ONE- PERCENT RETURN FREQUENCY. INDEED QUITE AN
ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST INCLUDING ONLY 10 DEGREES
RIGHT NOW IN OLEAN AND 13 IN WELLSVILLE. LAKE ERIE BAND IS
YIELDING HEAVY SNOW IN WESTERN NY INCLUDING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
TAIL END OF MOISTURE FROM ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WHICH IS NOW WELL
FORMED...WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WSW
FLOW.
JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD WILL BE CAPABLE OF YIELDING A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY MINUS 10 TO
MINUS 20 CELSIUS/ IS CRASHING TO THE LOWEST 8 KFT AGL THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR US IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS. IF NOT FOR THE TEMPERATURES THAT JUST OCCURRED AT
MIDNIGHT REPRESENTING THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY...OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SETTING NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. AND
AS SUCH...LOWS TONIGHT PLUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
DAILY RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF AFD BELOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...EVEN PERHAPS
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WIND CHILLS WILL THUS BE ONLY
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS MAJORITY OF THE DAY...AND EVEN
APPROACHING ZERO FOR TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW TO
MID 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY...AND LOW TO MID TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH GOING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE INTENSE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT AT GETTING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT-VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE PASSES AND TEMPORARILY VEERS THE
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO GETS QUITE
SHEARED AS IT DOES SO...THAT IS...WESTERLY AT 850MB VERSUS STILL
SW OR WSW AT THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE BAND MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO YIELD 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. LACKING THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...YET ALSO NOT ABLE TO RULE IT
OUT...KEEPING THE WATCH IN PLACE /IN COORDINATION WITH NWS ALBANY/
IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS GOING IN FULL-FORCE THIS MRNG SOUTH OF
BUFFALO WITH REPORTS OF 3 FEET IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CITY WHERE
BAND HAS BEEN PARKED ALL NIGHT. OUR CWA HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MUST
SOME FLURRIES FM LK ERIE, MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH JUST FLURRY MENTION THRU
THE AFTN WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING SOME VRY LGT ECHOES EXTNDG
THIS FAR INLAND AFT 18Z.
LOWERED TEMPS SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THEY HV TAKEN AWHILE TO REALLY
RISE. ONLY EXPECTING LWR 20S AT BEST FOR MOST LOCALES THO DEEPER
VLY LOCATIONS IN NEPA AND THE LK PLAIN MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE INTO
THE M20S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PERUSE MODEL DATA TO SEE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LK
SNOWS ACRS EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WHAT
TO DO WITH WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BUT PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIND CHILLS ARE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS...A RATHER RUDE AWAKENING FOR
US IN WHAT IS BY FAR THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD THIS SEASON.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS A LESS- THAN-ONE- PERCENT RETURN FREQUENCY. INDEED QUITE AN
ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST INCLUDING ONLY 10 DEGREES
RIGHT NOW IN OLEAN AND 13 IN WELLSVILLE. LAKE ERIE BAND IS
YIELDING HEAVY SNOW IN WESTERN NY INCLUDING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
TAIL END OF MOISTURE FROM ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WHICH IS NOW WELL
FORMED...WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WSW
FLOW.
JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD WILL BE CAPABLE OF YIELDING A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY MINUS 10 TO
MINUS 20 CELSIUS/ IS CRASHING TO THE LOWEST 8 KFT AGL THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR US IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS. IF NOT FOR THE TEMPERATURES THAT JUST OCCURRED AT
MIDNIGHT REPRESENTING THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY...OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SETTING NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. AND
AS SUCH...LOWS TONIGHT PLUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
DAILY RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF AFD BELOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...EVEN PERHAPS
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WIND CHILLS WILL THUS BE ONLY
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS MAJORITY OF THE DAY...AND EVEN
APPROACHING ZERO FOR TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW TO
MID 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY...AND LOW TO MID TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH GOING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE INTENSE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT AT GETTING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT-VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE PASSES AND TEMPORARILY VEERS THE
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO GETS QUITE
SHEARED AS IT DOES SO...THAT IS...WESTERLY AT 850MB VERSUS STILL
SW OR WSW AT THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE BAND MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO YIELD 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. LACKING THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...YET ALSO NOT ABLE TO RULE IT
OUT...KEEPING THE WATCH IN PLACE /IN COORDINATION WITH NWS ALBANY/
IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. WAA FRI TO SUN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UL RIDGE MOVE THROUGH. SW FLOW OPENS THE GULF TO GIVE
US A MILD SOAKING RAIN STARTING SUNDAY. BELOW STILL APPLIES.
130 PM EST UPDATE...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
THIS RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH... EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SAT TO STAY DRY.
SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ATTM... EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID... AKA... RAIN. THIS SYSTEM MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO BE PRESENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT FAIRLY CHILLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME
FRAME BUT DUE TO WAA... TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 30S...
AND BY MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPS BACK UP IN THE 50S. THIS WOULD BE
A NICE CHANGE TO ALL THE COLD WX WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1006 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS GOING IN FULL-FORCE THIS MRNG SOUTH OF
BUFFALO WITH REPORTS OF 3 FEET IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CITY WHERE
BAND HAS BEEN PARKED ALL NIGHT. OUR CWA HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MUST
SOME FLURRIES FM LK ERIE, MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH JUST FLURRY MENTION THRU
THE AFTN WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING SOME VRY LGT ECHOES EXTNDG
THIS FAR INLAND AFT 18Z.
LOWERED TEMPS SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THEY HV TAKEN AWHILE TO REALLY
RISE. ONLY EXPECTING LWR 20S AT BEST FOR MOST LOCALES THO DEEPER
VLY LOCATIONS IN NEPA AND THE LK PLAIN MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE INTO
THE M20S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PERUSE MODEL DATA TO SEE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LK
SNOWS ACRS EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WHAT
TO DO WITH WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BUT PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIND CHILLS ARE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS...A RATHER RUDE AWAKENING FOR
US IN WHAT IS BY FAR THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD THIS SEASON.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS A LESS- THAN-ONE- PERCENT RETURN FREQUENCY. INDEED QUITE AN
ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST INCLUDING ONLY 10 DEGREES
RIGHT NOW IN OLEAN AND 13 IN WELLSVILLE. LAKE ERIE BAND IS
YIELDING HEAVY SNOW IN WESTERN NY INCLUDING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
TAIL END OF MOISTURE FROM ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WHICH IS NOW WELL
FORMED...WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WSW
FLOW.
JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD WILL BE CAPABLE OF YIELDING A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY MINUS 10 TO
MINUS 20 CELSIUS/ IS CRASHING TO THE LOWEST 8 KFT AGL THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR US IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS. IF NOT FOR THE TEMPERATURES THAT JUST OCCURRED AT
MIDNIGHT REPRESENTING THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY...OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SETTING NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. AND
AS SUCH...LOWS TONIGHT PLUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
DAILY RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF AFD BELOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...EVEN PERHAPS
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WIND CHILLS WILL THUS BE ONLY
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS MAJORITY OF THE DAY...AND EVEN
APPROACHING ZERO FOR TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW TO
MID 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY...AND LOW TO MID TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH GOING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE INTENSE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT AT GETTING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT-VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE PASSES AND TEMPORARILY VEERS THE
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO GETS QUITE
SHEARED AS IT DOES SO...THAT IS...WESTERLY AT 850MB VERSUS STILL
SW OR WSW AT THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE BAND MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO YIELD 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. LACKING THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...YET ALSO NOT ABLE TO RULE IT
OUT...KEEPING THE WATCH IN PLACE /IN COORDINATION WITH NWS ALBANY/
IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. WAA FRI TO SUN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UL RIDGE MOVE THROUGH. SW FLOW OPENS THE GULF TO GIVE
US A MILD SOAKING RAIN STARTING SUNDAY. BELOW STILL APPLIES.
130 PM EST UPDATE...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
THIS RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH... EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SAT TO STAY DRY.
SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ATTM... EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID... AKA... RAIN. THIS SYSTEM MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO BE PRESENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT FAIRLY CHILLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME
FRAME BUT DUE TO WAA... TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 30S...
AND BY MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPS BACK UP IN THE 50S. THIS WOULD BE
A NICE CHANGE TO ALL THE COLD WX WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR. 260 LOW LEVEL FLOW. KEEPS MOST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE CWA. AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN SYR AND RME COULD
GET IN THE LAKE ERIE BAND AND HAVE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NY. ELM ITH AND BGM COULD BRIEFLY
FALL TO MVFR BUT DID NOT INCLUDE. AVP WILL HAVE CLOUDS BUT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THEY WILL STAY VFR.
LATE TONIGHT LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 270 SO NOT EXPECTED ANY
RESTRICTIONS.
WEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS NOW. AROUND 14Z
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS. SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT SO THAT BY 12Z WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
BOWMAN RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE...THE KMBX RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME ECHOES MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NOT REAL SURE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH. GIVEN
THE CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS...INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP THE SPS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
NOW. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
OTHER UPDATES REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA. IF IT STAYS ON ITS CURRENT
TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
16Z-18Z. WOLF POINT, MONTANA WAS AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY FOR 30
MINUTES...AND REPORTED 1/4SM VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AT ITS PEAK.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW THINK THE CURRENT SPS IS
SUFFICIENT. THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST 06 UTC GFS/NAM ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE RAP13 IS STILL FARTHEST NORTH AND HIGHEST WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE HRRR AND HIRES ARW/NMM ARE A LITTLE MORE
BROAD BRUSHED AND COVER MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS BASED MAINLY ON THE A CONSENSUS OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CONSSHORT...WHICH DOES A REASONABLE JOB OF
HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER POPS TRACKING FROM NW INTO SC ND AND ALSO
HITTING THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE FINE
TUNING AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST (KDIK) EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON (18Z-20Z). DO NOT THINK PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
AN ISSUE FOR KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS SO WILL KEEP TEMPO IFR GROUPS OUT
OF THOSE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
936 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA. IF IT STAYS ON ITS CURRENT
TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
16Z-18Z. WOLF POINT, MONTANA WAS AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY FOR 30
MINUTES...AND REPORTED 1/4SM VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AT ITS PEAK.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW THINK THE CURRENT SPS IS
SUFFICIENT. THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST 06 UTC GFS/NAM ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE RAP13 IS STILL FARTHEST NORTH AND HIGHEST WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE HRRR AND HIRES ARW/NMM ARE A LITTLE MORE
BROAD BRUSHED AND COVER MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS BASED MAINLY ON THE A CONSENSUS OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CONSSHORT...WHICH DOES A REASONABLE JOB OF
HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER POPS TRACKING FROM NW INTO SC ND AND ALSO
HITTING THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE FINE
TUNING AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KJMS THROUGH 13Z THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR CIGS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WESTERN TERMINALS OF
KISN/KDIK...AND BETWEEN 19Z-23Z FROM KMOT/KBIS TO KJMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND VSBYS RANGING BETWEEN 5SM-6SM. INTERMITTENTLY THEY MAY BECOME
LOWER IN ANY LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST 06 UTC GFS/NAM ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE RAP13 IS STILL FARTHEST NORTH AND HIGHEST WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE HRRR AND HIRES ARW/NMM ARE A LITTLE MORE
BROAD BRUSHED AND COVER MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS BASED MAINLY ON THE A CONSENSUS OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CONSSHORT...WHICH DOES A REASONABLE JOB OF
HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER POPS TRACKING FROM NW INTO SC ND AND ALSO
HITTING THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE FINE
TUNING AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KJMS THROUGH 13Z THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR CIGS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WESTERN TERMINALS OF
KISN/KDIK...AND BETWEEN 19Z-23Z FROM KMOT/KBIS TO KJMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND VSBYS RANGING BETWEEN 5SM-6SM. INTERMITTENTLY THEY MAY BECOME
LOWER IN ANY LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KBIS/KJMS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11Z-13Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY 17Z TUESDAY...THEN INTO KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND INTERMITTENTLY VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT CIGS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AS THE TVF TO FOSSTON AREA HAS
SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A SHARPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO
IN PARTS OF THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
SAT LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME HOLES
HERE AND THERE. MORE CONCENTRATED CLEARING IS STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CANADA. RAP HAS DECENT RH VALUES IN THE 925 TO
850MB LAYER MATCHING UP WITH THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARDS MORNING. BUMPED UP CLOUDS COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED IN THE TEENS WHILE THE FEW
CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE
THERE APPEAR TO BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK WITH THE WEST
STAYING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUDS UP A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AS SAT LOOP AND OBS
SHOWED QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAD GOING IN THE
GRIDS. ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THERE HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SOME FLAKES. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST DEPENDING ON WHAT CLOUD
COVER DOES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO LINGER THE
LONGEST IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...BUT JUST HOW COLD
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET. EXPECT THAT SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR WILL
DROP TO AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...WITH CLOUDY AREAS WARMER.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 20 WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WAA ALOFT. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE TO THE S/SW...SO SNOW FREE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOW/MID
20S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SPREADING
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL
MUCH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME WIND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED...AND TEMPS
COULD PEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WIND WITH ABOUT
35-40KT TO MIX FROM 925 MB...SO THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SOME SNOW COVER. IT WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...A BLUSTERY DAY.
ON THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MINIMAL MIXING...WITH
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS AT THE SFC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A BREEZIER DAY FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THEN TURNS MORE ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING
THRU. THE MAIN EFFECTS LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS WAVE. A SECOND MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH MOVES IN BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH THE SFC PATTERN BY 12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MUCH STRONGER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH. KEPT THE IDEA OF BROADBRUSHED SNOW CHANCES
SUN/MON AND WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
MOST SITES HAVE SEEN CIGS GO TO VFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 4000-7000
FT. HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HAS KEPT VIS DOWN TO 3-5SM
AT TIMES AT KBJI. THINK THIS WILL LAST JUST A LITTLE BIT LONGER
AND THEN ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR. THE HIGHER CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1214 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL COVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD STAY CONFINED WITHIN ABOUT 10
MILES OF OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COLD AT MIDDAY FOR MID NOVEMBER...TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO
15F NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST...WITH WIND CHILLS STILL
RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO NORTH TO 10 TO 15F.
SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND REMAINS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
PARALLEL TO LAKE ERIE SHORE...TARGETING IMMEDIATE AREAS ESE OF
BUFFALO. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE HIRES ARW
INDICATE A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE BAND THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES WILL BE -3 TO -4 SD...WITH A BROAD AREA OF
-18C AIR RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PENN MTNS PER THE LATEST
SREF. SCATTERED FLURRIES...AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDING AT
TIMES INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES NEAR AND TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO AROUND 30F IN THE FAR SE. THESE TEMPS WILL
BE AND INCREDIBLE 20 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL AND WILL RIVAL PREVIOUS
MINI MAX TEMPS FOR NOV 18TH WHICH ARE 30F AT KMDT AND 28F AT KIPT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH VERTICAL MIXING THROUGH SEVERAL KFT AGL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND
CHILLS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT APPARENT
TEMPS OF 5-10 BLW ZERO SEEM LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W
MTNS...PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ALL 00Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES WRF NMM AND 18/07Z HRRR
HINT AT THE MEAN LLVL VEERING JUST A BIT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PUSH A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS INLAND
ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMS COULD APPROACH LES
ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE FAR NW PART
OF WARREN CTY NEAR COLUMBUS AND BEAR LAKE. HOWEVER...THE EXTREME
LAND/TEMP DIFF WILL LIKELY PROVE THE MODELS WRONG AND MAKE IT
QUITE DIFFICULT TO TUG THE BACK AWAY FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE WHERE IT WILL STAY UNTIL LIFTING STEADILY NORTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE TEMPORARY...ALBEIT DEEPENING SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK WARM FRONT.
LOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLES DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND LOW-MID TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND WON`T SLACKEN MUCH AT ALL TONIGHT...AND
WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD - RANGING FORM THE THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10F BELOW ZERO
ACRS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS /BARELY ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF -15F/.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL PUSH A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION /AT THE
NOSE OF A PLUS 2-3 ST DEVIATION SWRLY LLJ/. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH PWATS BARELY EDGING ABOVE 7MM. PAINTED IN AN AREA OF
LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS FOR WED AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...EXPECT
THICKENING ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND
PERHAPS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FAR SE
AS A KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE.
HIGHS WED WILL REBOUND BY ABOUT 5F FROM THE BITTER...EARLY SEASON
COLD OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEE
OUTBREAK/ PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THU INTO FRIDAY.
A BETTER CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW /AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES ACROSS WARREN...MCKEAN AND ELK COUNTIES/ WILL DEVELOP
LATE THUR/THU NIGHT AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOMES WEST TO WNW AT
TIMES...WITH -14 TO -16C OR COLDER BLOWING ACROSS A LONG LENGTH OF
LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS FLURRIES WILL BE
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BRISK W/SW FLOW BRINGING SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WELL BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ONLY LOCAL VARIATIONS.
A VERY INTENSE SNOWBAND ALIGNED NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE ALIGNED WITH LL FLOW BRINGING SIG IMPACTS AROUND THE BUFFALO
NY AREA...BUT IMPACTS TO NW PA ARE MINIMAL. LARGE-SCALE UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GENERALLY KEEP MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KBFD-KFIG-KJST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THESE LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY ENCROACH ON KUNV-KAOO THIS MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY WITH
ASSISTANCE FROM DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW.
WINDS VEER TO NEARLY WESTERLY THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY PUSH SOME
SNOW BANDS INTO THE NW MTNS IN VICINITY OF KBFD...AND WILL
REINFORCE MVFR CIGS THERE. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD BRING KJST TO VFR...THOUGH POSS THAT
MVFR MAY PERSIST AS FLOW REMAINS PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGES AND
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A THIN STRATOCU DECK.
ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.
THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.
FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.
SAT...VFR TO MVFR CIGS...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN UNSEASONABLE COLD
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. 17.12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 22.00Z (FRIDAY NIGHT)...DIVERGING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A STRONG EAST-PACIFIC
WAVE AS IT EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS
OF ACCUMULATION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS FULLY IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY ONLY REACHING THE MID TEENS...EXPECT LOWS TO EASILY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND EVEN FAVORED COLD SPOTS
A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. 17.18Z RAP SHOWS 0.5 KM WINDS OVERNIGHT
AROUND 30 KTS WITH A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO THIS
LEVEL...SO EXPECT A BREEZY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BY TUESDAY MORNING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
DRY AND BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 TO 600 HPA FORCING INCREASES
ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF OMEGA
CENTERED ALONG THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...EXPECT A QUICK ONE INCH
OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...KEEPING DAILY TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS IOWA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...17.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THUS LESS ROBUST WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...DEPICTS 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY AS IT DRAGS A SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION
PRECIP ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH MODELS WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIP TO INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT STILL
LOTS OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT THE TAF SITES...BUT WITH RST DROPPING TO
MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN CEILING BRIEFLY BETWEEN 1-4Z...UNCERTAIN IF
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR OR NOT. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUGGEST THE VFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THAT ROUTE. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR BOTH TAF SITES TO
DROP DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 12Z IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN MN. SOME FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY TOO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...ANTICIPATING
CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK MOVES
IN AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA.
REGARDING WEST...WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH SOME IN THE EVENING
WHILE BACKING SOUTHERLY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
855 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO ONGOING IMPACTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NOW CONFINED ONLY TO
SRN CARBON COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE VIRTUALLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO COOL
CHADRON/ALLIANCE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND TO ADD PATCHY
FOG TO AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS AND FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM NRN NIOBRARA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST INTO NRN HARRISON AND DAWES COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG...BUT COULDNT
IGNORE THIS SHORT RANGE SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
COMPLIMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY MODEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS LATE THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER MTNS AT THAT TIME WITH A ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE REGION BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL INITIATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THAT EVENING...A PRECURSOR OF MORE WIND TO COME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
STARTING OFF SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. AFTER A
FAIRLY WARM DAY SATURDAY...GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 0
TO+2C SATURDAY AT NOON...DOWN TO -8 TO-10C SUNDAY MORNING. GOING
TO BE PRETTY WINDY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB WINDS PRETTY CLOSE TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. 700MB
CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...STARTING OFF AROUND 990MTRS SATURDAY MORNING...EASING
TO 60MTRS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS
AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY.
LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE JET DIVES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO. 700MB WINDS EASE TO
20-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDY AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
PANHANDLE WHERE 850MB WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 35-40KTS THROUGH
THE DAY.
A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER WIND EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERSISTING INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN WYOMING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRAGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT WEST IN CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES...700MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY 50+KTS MONDAY
MORNING. THEN EASE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT 60 TO
80 MTR HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60KTS MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND REALLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE. GFS WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 70KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH 90+MTR 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENTS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
80KTS OVER LARAMIE AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS NEAR
120MTRS. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HEADLINES IF THIS COMES
TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL VARY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AT MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT KRWL AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WEATHER FACTORS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL. BY LATE SATURDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO AREAS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 PM PST WEDNESDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS A FEW
REMAINING SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW ADDITIONAL
MOSTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THERE`LL BE PATCHY
FOG INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE AIR
MASS BEING MOISTENED FROM THE RECENT RAIN.
THE NEXT TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 42.8N AND
133.8W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST TO THE BAY AREA BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND SOME MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MILDER WATER RESULTING IN STEEPER VERTICAL TEMP
LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM MODEL
SHOWS THE NORTH BAY PICKING UP THE MOST RAINFALL WITH UPWARDS OF
0.75" AND UNLIKE EARLIER TODAY`S HIGH VARIABILITY FROM VALLEY TO
MOUNTAIN RAIN REPORTS...THURSDAY`S TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIALLY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BAY AREA...MORE TYPICAL OF COLDER TROUGHS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST BRINGING
LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL (0.10" - 0.25")...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PICK UP A
BIT MORE...NEAR 1/2" BUT THAT WOULD BE LOCALIZED TO HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE TROUGH WILL REACH SOCAL AND SOUTHERN NV BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL DATA SHOW MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTHEAST THE RAIN TOTALS DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST. UP TO 1" RAIN IS POSSIBLE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...AND 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...BUT
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. LOW CONFIDENCE
PERSISTS ON THE QPF FORECAST DUE TO RECENT AND CONTINUED MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS.
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:51 PM PST WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...YET WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING RAIN BACK TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE NORTH BAY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
JUST OFF THE COAST AND INCREASED INSTABILITY FORECAST BY THE
GFS/NAM. SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY PUSHING INLAND...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
ARW/NMM BOTH SUGGEST STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES OCCUR AND
CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE PUSHING INLAND...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MODERATE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE FORECAST MODELS THEN SHOW A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING AND EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER
MOISTURE POOL WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.20" TO 1.50" IS SET TO
ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THIS TIME...LIKELY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HEAVIER RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE NORTH
BAY WILL RECEIVE THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WHEN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW. DO EXPECT SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THAT
WILL HELP SPREAD RAIN DOWN INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
FURTHER SOUTH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY A DRIER AIR
MASS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...YET
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC AND BUILD TOWARD THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL CONSISTENCY THEN DIVERGES BY WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN WEDNESDAY AND BRINGING
ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS
THE RIDGE IN PLACE WITH A BREAK DOWN NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR DAY 7 AND 8.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. MAIN
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WILL BE
EXTENSIVE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM NW. 06Z PACKAGE FOLLOWED RAP MODEL WITH
BRINGING RAIN INTO NORTH BAY BEFORE LUNCHTIME WHICH IS EVEN FASTER
THAN THE NAM SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST FASTER
ARRIVAL OF RAIN LOOKS GOOD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP BY MORNING
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS. LATEST TAF SHOWS -RA DEVELOPING BY 19Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO REFORM BY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:45 PM PST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NW.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH
WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
NORTH BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN
AND INCREASING WINDS. NW WIND AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014
.UPDATE...854 PM CST
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SATELLITE SHOWING SOME SUBSTANTIAL GAPS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST AND NORTH. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SCATTERING/CLEARING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE MN/WI BORDER REGION
WORKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE PERIODIC GAPS IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS THOUGH ADJUSTED HOURLY TRENDS WITH
CLEARING LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK FEW DEGREE DROP BASED ON UPSTREAM
TRENDS...BUT STEADY WINDS WILL LIMIT MORE OF A DROP.
MDB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 PM...COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER PUNCH OF
COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME SCATTERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FLURRIES
AND FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ONLY A DUSTING...AT THE MOST...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT IT
WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BLUSTERY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS BY
MORNING...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO.
STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 20S
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY TANK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME SUNSHINE AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 PM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY...FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
POSSIBLE VERY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BROAD WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN FALLING FRIDAY EVENING...FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER A WEEK AND A HALF OF MAINLY
SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND HIGH TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SURFACES
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET...BULK OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF OF BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE THE FREEZING LINE TO ABOUT THE I-80
CORRIDOR BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY SLOWER/COLDER
THAN THESE MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO
MID MORNING SATURDAY AND CONSIDERING WINDS ARE ALL SOUTHERLY
DURING THIS EVENT...WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MIGHT ARRIVE SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER. NEVERTHELESS...ANY AMOUNT OF ICING WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...SO AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...THESE
TRENDS WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP TIMING/DURATION.
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY...HIGHS MAY
REACH THE MID 40S BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WITH NO CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST. HOW DENSE IT BECOMES OR HOW LONG IT PERSISTS IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TURN NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO AS
LOW AS 973MB BY MONDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST WI AS SHOWN BY THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF. WHILE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR NO WINTER PRECIP
CONCERNS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE TRACK WILL BE IMPORTANT
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACH INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH EVENT TOTAL QPF FROM THE MODELS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AND
IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE FALLING ONTO FROZEN OR
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND. THUS...AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...
HYDRO ISSUES MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STRONG
WINDS AND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN WITH MAX GUSTS
ARND 21 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST AND IT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO EXPECTING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE
HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MAY EVEN SEE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM LATE TONIGHT.
FOR CIGS DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES AS A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH SCT OR LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP AND/OR ICE PELLETS LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY WITH FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE NIGHT. AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR LIKELY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...IFR AND RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
221 AM CST
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE THE OPEN WATER GALE WARNING INTO THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL PROBABLY COME DOWN BEFORE THE END OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVSY...BUT WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW. ISSUED YET ANOTHER GALE
WATCH FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE LAKE. GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE
LAKE...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO ISSUE A HEADLINE NOW. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
IT INTO WEDNESDAY IF WAVES TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. THEN THE HIGH PASSES
SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE HIGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA TONIGHT REACHING HUDSON BAY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND
DEPARTING HIGH WHICH MAY LEAD TO GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF THE LAKE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW SPREADS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IL SUNDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE STILL
DIFFERS ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 975 MB/28.8 INCHES AT THE
NORTH END OF THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. GALES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...STORM FORCE
WINDS MAY BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. GUIDANCE INDICATED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SO KEPT WINDS IN THE GALE RANGE FOR NOW. THE LOW
MOVES OVER QUEBEC TUESDAY WITH WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE MID NEXT
WEEK HOPEFULLY BRINGING WITH A MUCH NEEDED BREAK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870...6 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Flurries continue to affect much of central IL this evening under
a weak shortwave in the strong W-NW flow. A band of low clouds
associated with the feature will persist the rest of the evening
and most likely well after midnight before dry air above the cloud
layer creates some clearing. Satellite images show breaks in the
clouds upstream, so periods of clearing should progress across the
area later tonight. That clearing and some decrease in wind speeds
should help low temps dip to forecast numbers in the mid-upper
teens by sunrise Thursday. W-NW winds of 8-12 mph will push wind
chill readings down into the single digits after midnight.
High pressure will advance east into IL on Thursday, providing
mostly clear skies and continued cold conditions. However, winds
should be lighter under the ridge axis and weaker pressure gradient.
Updates this evening were mainly to the sky grids to match
expected trends. We kept clouds around longer after midnight, but
still expect clearing for tomorrow morning. Updated info is
already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Breezy and cold weather will be the rule across central Illinois
tonight. 19z/1pm surface analysis shows cold front exiting into
Indiana, while ridge of high pressure builds into the Plains.
Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to create
W/NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Gustiness will
begin to subside toward sunset: however, with ridge axis staying
west of Illinois until Thursday, gradient will remain tight enough
to support winds of around 10 mph through the night. Clouds and a
few flurries will prevail early in the evening, with the big weather
question being how fast skies will clear later tonight. Widespread
cloud cover is currently evident on satellite imagery from Illinois
northwestward to the US/Canada border: however, several holes in the
overcast have developed upstream across the Dakotas/Minnesota. All
model guidance suggests clouds will begin to scatter this evening,
with mostly clear conditions expected overnight. Given current
satellite imagery and continued deep northwesterly flow, think this
is too fast. Have therefore gone with a slower clearing trend more
in line with the HRRR solution. End result will be cloudy skies
this evening, followed by gradual clearing overnight. Due to the
clouds and continued breeze, have gone with the higher end of
numeric guidance for lows tonight, with readings ranging from 14
degrees in Galesburg to around 20 degrees south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Moisture channel satellite imagery and the morning upper air shows
deep upper level trof over eastern US with main jet from central
Canada into the midwest. This upper flow will bring in another surge
of cold air, with cold surface high moving into region during the
day Thursday and Thursday night. With clear skies by Thursday night,
have lowered Friday morning lows some due to light winds and cold
airmass.
Main precipitation concern is for Friday evening and Friday night,
as overrunning precipitation develops from AR into MO ahead of
digging shortwave in the southwest US. Precipitation will reach
central IL Friday evening, so temperature forecast will be critical,
as warm air aloft will produce precipitation in form of rain.
A detailed look at the model surface temperature forecasts depicts
EUR warmest, GFS, and NAM coolest. Feel the warming temperatures
will be blend of GFS and NAM, as conditions will start off cooler
Friday morning, as lowered morning lows. Feel current forecast grids
a good compromise and so looks like pcpn will start in evening
Friday as light freezing rain, with the freezing line gradually
moving to the northeast overnight. Pcpn amounts still look to be
light, so impacts will be on the light scale.
Saturday pcpn will be rain, as overrunning pcpn continues to develop
and move into the region. Strongest dynamics look to be on Sunday,
as the shortwave system and surface low approach and move through
region.
Models are similar in the movement of system, with low center
tracking just west of the cwa Sunday, with front moving through area
and gusty winds. Vertical stacking of the upper low over Lake MI on
Sunday night.
Cool conditions will conditions into midweek, as the upper low
gradually moves off and allows another cool high pressure area into
the midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Winds have finally diminished as pressure rises slowed down and
the pressure gradient relaxed a bit, especially across the SW half
of IL. We expect west winds in the 8-10kt range for the rest of
the night.
The latest satellite imagery shows diminishing clouds to the W-NW
compared to earlier this evening. We still have a majority of
central IL with some VFR cloud cover in the 3.5k-4.5k ft layer,
but breaks are becoming more numerous with each passing hour. Forecast
soundings remain generally pessimistic with cloud cover the rest of the
night, but we continued with clearing developing at all terminal
sites before sunrise.
Once the skies clear out, we expect enough dry air mixing tomorrow
to prevent any BKN cloud decks from forming, but moisture will
remain in the 2-3k ft layer according to forecast moisture
profiles. Winds will be less gusty than today, but sustained winds
will climb back into the 10-145kt range through the day from the
west. Light winds will develop with sunset tomorrow, as winds
decouple under clear skies and weak high pressure.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1130 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...854 PM CST
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SATELLITE SHOWING SOME SUBSTANTIAL GAPS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST AND NORTH. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SCATTERING/CLEARING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE MN/WI BORDER REGION
WORKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE PERIODIC GAPS IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS THOUGH ADJUSTED HOURLY TRENDS WITH
CLEARING LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK FEW DEGREE DROP BASED ON UPSTREAM
TRENDS...BUT STEADY WINDS WILL LIMIT MORE OF A DROP.
MDB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 PM...COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER PUNCH OF
COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME SCATTERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FLURRIES
AND FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ONLY A DUSTING...AT THE MOST...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT IT
WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BLUSTERY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS BY
MORNING...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO.
STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 20S
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY TANK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME SUNSHINE AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 PM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY...FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
POSSIBLE VERY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BROAD WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN FALLING FRIDAY EVENING...FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER A WEEK AND A HALF OF MAINLY
SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND HIGH TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SURFACES
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET...BULK OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF OF BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE THE FREEZING LINE TO ABOUT THE I-80
CORRIDOR BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY SLOWER/COLDER
THAN THESE MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO
MID MORNING SATURDAY AND CONSIDERING WINDS ARE ALL SOUTHERLY
DURING THIS EVENT...WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MIGHT ARRIVE SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER. NEVERTHELESS...ANY AMOUNT OF ICING WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...SO AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...THESE
TRENDS WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP TIMING/DURATION.
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY...HIGHS MAY
REACH THE MID 40S BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WITH NO CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST. HOW DENSE IT BECOMES OR HOW LONG IT PERSISTS IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TURN NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO AS
LOW AS 973MB BY MONDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST WI AS SHOWN BY THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF. WHILE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR NO WINTER PRECIP
CONCERNS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE TRACK WILL BE IMPORTANT
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACH INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH EVENT TOTAL QPF FROM THE MODELS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AND
IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE FALLING ONTO FROZEN OR
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND. THUS...AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...
HYDRO ISSUES MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STRONG
WINDS AND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN WITH MAX GUSTS
ARND 21 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST AND IT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO EXPECTING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE
HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MAY EVEN SEE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM LATE TONIGHT.
FOR CIGS DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES AS A PERIOD OF LOW END VFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH SCT OR LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP AND/OR ICE PELLETS LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY WITH FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE NIGHT. AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR LIKELY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...IFR AND RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Flurries continue to affect much of central IL this evening under
a weak shortwave in the strong W-NW flow. A band of low clouds
associated with the feature will persist the rest of the evening
and most likely well after midnight before dry air above the cloud
layer creates some clearing. Satellite images show breaks in the
clouds upstream, so periods of clearing should progress across the
area later tonight. That clearing and some decrease in wind speeds
should help low temps dip to forecast numbers in the mid-upper
teens by sunrise Thursday. W-NW winds of 8-12 mph will push wind
chill readings down into the single digits after midnight.
High pressure will advance east into IL on Thursday, providing
mostly clear skies and continued cold conditions. However, winds
should be lighter under the ridge axis and weaker pressure gradient.
Updates this evening were mainly to the sky grids to match
expected trends. We kept clouds around longer after midnight, but
still expect clearing for tomorrow morning. Updated info is
already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Breezy and cold weather will be the rule across central Illinois
tonight. 19z/1pm surface analysis shows cold front exiting into
Indiana, while ridge of high pressure builds into the Plains.
Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to create
W/NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Gustiness will
begin to subside toward sunset: however, with ridge axis staying
west of Illinois until Thursday, gradient will remain tight enough
to support winds of around 10 mph through the night. Clouds and a
few flurries will prevail early in the evening, with the big weather
question being how fast skies will clear later tonight. Widespread
cloud cover is currently evident on satellite imagery from Illinois
northwestward to the US/Canada border: however, several holes in the
overcast have developed upstream across the Dakotas/Minnesota. All
model guidance suggests clouds will begin to scatter this evening,
with mostly clear conditions expected overnight. Given current
satellite imagery and continued deep northwesterly flow, think this
is too fast. Have therefore gone with a slower clearing trend more
in line with the HRRR solution. End result will be cloudy skies
this evening, followed by gradual clearing overnight. Due to the
clouds and continued breeze, have gone with the higher end of
numeric guidance for lows tonight, with readings ranging from 14
degrees in Galesburg to around 20 degrees south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Moisture channel satellite imagery and the morning upper air shows
deep upper level trof over eastern US with main jet from central
Canada into the midwest. This upper flow will bring in another surge
of cold air, with cold surface high moving into region during the
day Thursday and Thursday night. With clear skies by Thursday night,
have lowered Friday morning lows some due to light winds and cold
airmass.
Main precipitation concern is for Friday evening and Friday night,
as overrunning precipitation develops from AR into MO ahead of
digging shortwave in the southwest US. Precipitation will reach
central IL Friday evening, so temperature forecast will be critical,
as warm air aloft will produce precipitation in form of rain.
A detailed look at the model surface temperature forecasts depicts
EUR warmest, GFS, and NAM coolest. Feel the warming temperatures
will be blend of GFS and NAM, as conditions will start off cooler
Friday morning, as lowered morning lows. Feel current forecast grids
a good compromise and so looks like pcpn will start in evening
Friday as light freezing rain, with the freezing line gradually
moving to the northeast overnight. Pcpn amounts still look to be
light, so impacts will be on the light scale.
Saturday pcpn will be rain, as overrunning pcpn continues to develop
and move into the region. Strongest dynamics look to be on Sunday,
as the shortwave system and surface low approach and move through
region.
Models are similar in the movement of system, with low center
tracking just west of the cwa Sunday, with front moving through area
and gusty winds. Vertical stacking of the upper low over Lake MI on
Sunday night.
Cool conditions will conditions into midweek, as the upper low
gradually moves off and allows another cool high pressure area into
the midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Strong W/NW winds will highlight the early TAF forecast as gusts
to 30kt still showing up from PIA to BMI. Pressure rises of 2-3mb
per 3-hours will continue through around 3z/9pm behind the cold
front, so will continue gusts at all terminal sites through that
time. After that, pressure rises slow down, but a continued
pressure gradient across the NE half of IL will help keep
sustained winds in the 12-15kt range for at least the northern
terminals of PIA/BMI/CMI.
2330z/530pm satellite imagery shows breaks in the low cloud cover
upstream across Iowa and S MN, but a channel of clouds from W Iowa
back into SD/ND streaming toward SPI and DEC. Forecast soundings
are generally pessimistic with cloud cover through the night, but
still expect some clearing to develop later tonight. Most cloud
cover will be VFR anyway, so the clearing will not be a major
change in flight category. However, ceilings are hovering right
around 3k ft near PIA/BMI, so a brief period of MVFR cloud heights
can not be ruled out there.
Once the skies clear out, we expect enough dry air mixing tomorrow
to prevent any BKN cloud decks from forming, but moisture will
remain in the 2-3k ft layer according to forecast moisture
profiles. Winds will be less gusty than today, but sustained winds
will climb back into the 12-15kt range through the day from the west.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
202 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING CIRRUS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR SW
WINDS TONIGHT AT KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1052 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO ONGOING IMPACTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NOW CONFINED ONLY TO
SRN CARBON COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE VIRTUALLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO COOL
CHADRON/ALLIANCE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND TO ADD PATCHY
FOG TO AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS AND FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM NRN NIOBRARA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST INTO NRN HARRISON AND DAWES COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG...BUT COULDNT
IGNORE THIS SHORT RANGE SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
COMPLIMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY MODEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS LATE THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER MTNS AT THAT TIME WITH A ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE REGION BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL INITIATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THAT EVENING...A PRECURSOR OF MORE WIND TO COME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
STARTING OFF SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. AFTER A
FAIRLY WARM DAY SATURDAY...GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 0
TO+2C SATURDAY AT NOON...DOWN TO -8 TO-10C SUNDAY MORNING. GOING
TO BE PRETTY WINDY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB WINDS PRETTY CLOSE TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. 700MB
CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...STARTING OFF AROUND 990MTRS SATURDAY MORNING...EASING
TO 60MTRS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS
AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY.
LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE JET DIVES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO. 700MB WINDS EASE TO
20-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDY AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
PANHANDLE WHERE 850MB WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 35-40KTS THROUGH
THE DAY.
A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER WIND EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERSISTING INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN WYOMING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRAGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT WEST IN CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES...700MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY 50+KTS MONDAY
MORNING. THEN EASE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT 60 TO
80 MTR HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60KTS MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND REALLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE. GFS WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 70KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH 90+MTR 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENTS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
80KTS OVER LARAMIE AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS NEAR
120MTRS. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HEADLINES IF THIS COMES
TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCDR.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ITS
DEVELOPMENT. AM NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT BUT DID ADD VCFG AND A
SCT010 DECK TO THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL VARY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AT MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRWL AFTER 16Z THURSDAY WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WEATHER FACTORS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL. BY LATE SATURDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO AREAS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:06 AM PST THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE
PRECIP BEGINNING BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS WILL THEN REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. MAIN
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WILL BE
EXTENSIVE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM NW. 06Z PACKAGE FOLLOWED RAP MODEL WITH
BRINGING RAIN INTO NORTH BAY BEFORE LUNCHTIME WHICH IS EVEN FASTER
THAN THE NAM SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST FASTER
ARRIVAL OF RAIN LOOKS GOOD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP BY MORNING
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS. LATEST TAF SHOWS -RA DEVELOPING BY 19Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO REFORM BY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PST THURSDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
423 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
09-10Z TONIGHT. WHILE FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
10-12Z TIME PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR WELL MIXED BL I DECIDED TO MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
APPEARS TO BE AT KMCK WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACKING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
621 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
621 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWING UP A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING. IN FACT THE HRRR AND RUC NOW HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MAINE AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MAIN UPDATE WAS
TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND TO BUMP UP THE POPS
A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.
FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...THE KCBW (HODGDON, MAINE) RADAR WENT DOWN AROUND 0100
EST THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO
SERVICE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
526 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 526 PM EST...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM EDT...WITH
A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL NOONTIME.
A QUICK UPDATE WITH THE ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS/BRIEF SQUALLS MOVING
ACROSS THE ERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION BTWN 5-6 PM. SOME
COATINGS TO FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE NRN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND THE BERKSHIRES. A
MORE IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND CONTINUES TO EXTEND
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WRN ADIRONDACKS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS INTENSE
LAKE EFFECT BAND IS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH BURSTS OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NRN TIP OF HERKIMER CTY...AND NW HAMILTON
COUNTY. THE CRITICAL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR THE WRN DACKS. A SINGLE BAND HAS FORMED
WITH LIMITED LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY
VEERING TO A 250-270 DEG TRAJECTORY. LAKE/ATMO DELTA TEMPS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH EXTREME LAKE INSTABILITY FAVORED BY THE UPSTREAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY.
1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE
3-KM HRRR INDICATING THE FLOW VEERING...AND THE BAND PIVOTING S/SE
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. WE ARE EXPECTING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL FROM OLD FORGE...EAGLE BAY...AND INLET NORTH AND
WEST WITH 8-16 INCHES POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WARNING AREAS
EXPECT 6-12 INCHES. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AREA WILL RECEIVE 2
TO 6 INCHES. THE BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CRUMBLE SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND THE NW FLOW TRAJECTORY FAVOR MULTI BANDS.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH SOME
ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
L20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS
AND SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.
AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1730Z...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AT THE AIRPORTS RIGHT BEHIND
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG AND
GUSTY UNTIL DARK...THEN STILL IN THE 7 TO 10 KNOTS RANGE THEREAFTER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS BY MIDDAY IN
THE 12 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL TURN ON
THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
AT THE AIRPORTS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DRYING CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPING
NOW TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THUS...ANY SNOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ONCE LAKE EFFECT BANDS GET ORGANIZED TO OUR WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED...WITH KGFL MOST PRONE
TO SEEING PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES FROM THESE BANDS WHICH WILL HAVE
DUMPED A GREAT DEAL OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WEST OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A PERIOD OF VCSH AT KPSF DUE TO
UPSLOPING INTO THE BERKSHIRE TERRAIN.
MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40
KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY 20 TO 30
DEGREES. A PERIOD OF THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED SOUTH OF KGFL...
ANYWHERE WITHIN THE 23Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME. THEN WINDS ABOVE THE
FRICTION LAYER WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
VISIBILITY- AND CLOUD-WISE...WHILE CEILINGS WILL WIN OVER MOST OF
THE TIME NORTH OF KPOU...HEIGHTS WILL BE UP IN THE VFR RANGE. SOME
SCT025 CLOUDS COULD WHIZ BY ANYTIME BEFORE DAYBREAK...BEING MAINLY
LAKE-BAND FRACTUS THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR INLAND. CARRYING SOME VFR
BR OVERNIGHT AT KALB...WHICH WILL BE A COMBINATION OF MOHAWK RIVER
MOISTURE FETCH AND SUBLIMATING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ALOFT.
WOULDN/T RULE OUT MVFR...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO COLD AND DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
434 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM EDT...WITH A
LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL NOONTIME.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLD-SCT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND THE BERKSHIRES. A MORE IMPRESSIVE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WRN
ADIRONDACKS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH BURSTS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NRN
TIP OF HERKIMER CTY...AND NW HAMILTON COUNTY. THE CRITICAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR
THE WRN DACKS. A SINGLE BAND HAS FORMED WITH LIMITED LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY VEERING TO A 250-270 DEG
TRAJECTORY. LAKE/ATMO DELTA TEMPS ARE FAVORABLE WITH EXTREME LAKE
INSTABILITY FAVORED BY THE UPSTREAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NEAR THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY.
1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE
3-KM HRRR INDICATING THE FLOW VEERING...AND THE BAND PIVOTING S/SE
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. WE ARE EXPECTING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL FROM OLD FORGE...EAGLE BAY...AND INLET NORTH AND
WEST WITH 8-16 INCHES POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WARNING AREAS
EXPECT 6-12 INCHES. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AREA WILL RECEIVE 2
TO 6 INCHES. THE BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CRUMBLE SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND THE NW FLOW TRAJECTORY FAVOR MULTI BANDS.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH SOME
ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
L20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS
AND SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.
AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1730Z...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AT THE AIRPORTS RIGHT BEHIND
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG AND
GUSTY UNTIL DARK...THEN STILL IN THE 7 TO 10 KNOTS RANGE THEREAFTER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS BY MIDDAY IN
THE 12 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL TURN ON
THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
AT THE AIRPORTS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DRYING CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPING
NOW TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THUS...ANY SNOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ONCE LAKE EFFECT BANDS GET ORGANIZED TO OUR WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED...WITH KGFL MOST PRONE
TO SEEING PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES FROM THESE BANDS WHICH WILL HAVE
DUMPED A GREAT DEAL OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WEST OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A PERIOD OF VCSH AT KPSF DUE TO
UPSLOPING INTO THE BERKSHIRE TERRAIN.
MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40
KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY 20 TO 30
DEGREES. A PERIOD OF THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED SOUTH OF KGFL...
ANYWHERE WITHIN THE 23Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME. THEN WINDS ABOVE THE
FRICTION LAYER WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
VISIBILITY- AND CLOUD-WISE...WHILE CEILINGS WILL WIN OVER MOST OF
THE TIME NORTH OF KPOU...HEIGHTS WILL BE UP IN THE VFR RANGE. SOME
SCT025 CLOUDS COULD WHIZ BY ANYTIME BEFORE DAYBREAK...BEING MAINLY
LAKE-BAND FRACTUS THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR INLAND. CARRYING SOME VFR
BR OVERNIGHT AT KALB...WHICH WILL BE A COMBINATION OF MOHAWK RIVER
MOISTURE FETCH AND SUBLIMATING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ALOFT.
WOULDN/T RULE OUT MVFR...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO COLD AND DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).
MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.
AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT LEAVE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WX HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. FORECAST STILL ON
TRACK WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE LAKE IN
RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
MICHIGAN...WITH THE START OF THE BANDS NOW INVOF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS HAVE BACKED JUST A BIT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS VEERING THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE. CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
IS THAT WHILE THE HRRR BRINGS THE BAND ONSHORE THE INTENSITY ALSO
DECREASES BEFORE NEW BANDS SET UP IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOCAL MODELS HOWEVER DEVELOP MORE LIFT/RADAR RETURN RESULTING IN
BETTER SNOW TOTALS. BELIEVE THAT WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL LIFT AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BANDS
OUTCOME WILL BETTER RESEMBLE LOCAL MODEL FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT NOT MUCH MORE THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY.
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH DEVELOPED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST BEGINS WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FAST TO BELIEVE SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. END TIME OF THE
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS FINE AT 10AM. FLOW REMAINS OFF THE LAKE NWRN
PA BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN AT LEAST
TO THE GENERATION AREA OF THE BANDS SO SNOW SHOULD TAPER/END
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE EARLY WITH TEMPS
RISING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS THE
PRECIP GETS INTO THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPS ALSO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL
NOT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 8-10AM SO PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MILD TO SEASONAL TEMP WISE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA ON MON SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.
SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS TEMPS TURN COLDER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR CHANGES
TO SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MODELS SHOW WRAP MOISTURE WORKING SE
BACK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH AN UPPER S/W. SHOULD SEE SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHSN OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME WED INTO THU BUT IN GENERAL THERE
SHOULD BE A ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT
INDUCES A LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY THU OR
THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IN THE FORECAST
THRU THU WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AND KEPT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AFFECTING ERI TO DROP SE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER INTO THE NIGHT AT ERI BUT WILL CAUSE THE
SHSN TO START TO AFFECT CLE AND YNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHSN OR FLURRIES ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAK. AS USUAL WITH THE
SHSN...CONDITIONS CAN WAVER FROM VFR/MVFR TO LOW IFR IN SHORT
DISTANCES AND IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT
ERI WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE
HIGHER WIND GUST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY FRI AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
WILL END WEST TO EAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF
NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME SUN
THRU TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE ON
FRI BEFORE BACKING TO SW FRO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER
PROBLEMS SHOULD END ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AND THE SCA MAY FINALLY BE ALLOWED TO END FRI EVENING ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THE WINDS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO KEEP 4 FOOT WAVES WELL OFFSHORE THRU SUN BUT WINDS MAY
GET INTO A 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ANYWAY TO REQUIRE SCA ADVISORIES.
IN ANY CASE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SUN NIGHT AND MON PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MON THAT TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FOOT TO GET BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO A
SCA LOOKS ALMOST DEFINITE FOR THEN.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
162>164.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145-146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1123 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WAVE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS E OK AND
NW AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. DOWN SOUTH TOWARD
KMLC...MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS DEAMPLIFIED...AS THE
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS
BROKEN DOWN BY SOME ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF THE EXTENDED CROSS-
PACIFIC JET. AT THE SURFACE...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SOME ENERGY ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX
UP INTO OUR AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN
AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WINDS ARE MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS UP FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS WE WERE YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...WITH SOME MIXING
THE RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. I MADE A SLIGHT TWEAK TO TODAYS HIGHS
USING SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR DATA.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.
A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 57 42 57 52 / 0 30 40 60
FSM 58 43 57 48 / 0 30 50 60
MLC 60 50 63 55 / 0 30 40 70
BVO 54 36 56 48 / 0 20 40 50
FYV 54 38 54 48 / 0 30 50 50
BYV 54 34 52 46 / 0 20 50 50
MKO 57 42 58 50 / 0 30 40 60
MIO 53 35 54 49 / 0 20 50 50
F10 59 44 61 53 / 0 30 40 60
HHW 61 51 63 54 / 10 40 50 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1016 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS DEAMPLIFIED...AS THE
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS
BROKEN DOWN BY SOME ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF THE EXTENDED CROSS-
PACIFIC JET. AT THE SURFACE...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SOME ENERGY ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX
UP INTO OUR AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN
AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WINDS ARE MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS UP FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS WE WERE YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...WITH SOME MIXING
THE RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. I MADE A SLIGHT TWEAK TO TODAYS HIGHS
USING SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR DATA.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OK/WC AR AFTER 03Z SPREADING NORTH AFTER 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.
A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 57 42 57 52 / 0 30 40 60
FSM 58 43 57 48 / 0 30 50 60
MLC 60 50 63 55 / 0 30 40 70
BVO 54 36 56 48 / 0 20 40 50
FYV 54 38 54 48 / 0 30 50 50
BYV 54 34 52 46 / 0 20 50 50
MKO 57 42 58 50 / 0 30 40 60
MIO 53 35 54 49 / 0 20 50 50
F10 59 44 61 53 / 0 30 40 60
HHW 61 51 63 54 / 10 40 50 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
1025 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014
.UPDATE...WITH THE STEADY PRECIPITATION ENDING AND TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING WE HAVE ALLOWED THE PREVIOUS WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS OF 10
AM. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS A BATCH OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WAS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COLUMBIA GORGE...SIMCOE HIGHLANDS
AND YAKIMA VALLEY REGIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DECIDED TO
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE LOCATIONS. LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL IS DOING A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND ALSO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDDAY. 77
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 943 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014/
UPDATE...THE LARGE AREA OF FZRA ACROSS THE BASIN AND FOOTHILLS OF
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WAS DECREASING ACROSS THIS AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE
ALL ADVISORIES FOR ANOTHER TWO HOURS. ELSEWHERE A MIXTURE OF PCPN
HAD/WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST
DRIER CONDITIONS WERE PREVAILING ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAKER STORM
SYSTEM WILL EFFECT CENTRAL OREGON TODAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW
WITH THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY PERSISTING.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MVFR AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KPDT...KALW...KDLS AND KPSC DUE TO FOG. AT KBDN AND KRDM CONDITIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH HIGHER CIGS AND BETTER VISIBILITY.
PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY ENDED...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS NEAR KDLS...KRDM AND KBDN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED TO LIFT OR THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 5 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 82
PREV DISC... /ISSUED 300 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE SHORT WAVE
LOOKED FAIRLY WEAK ON SATELLITE FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS PRODUCING
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...THEN SUDDENLY INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED
INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE EXITING OFF
TO THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL CROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOSTLY OVER OREGON AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MIXING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS IMPROVED THE FOG IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK THE INVERSION THOUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL END
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. FOG WILL CONTINUE IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEYS. A STRONGER AND WARMER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
FAIRLY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN. THE CASCADES COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
UPPER 30S AND 40S. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 94
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE 4500 TO 5500 FEET IN THE MORNING AND DROP TO 3500 TO
4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY
OVER BY THE TIME THE SNOW LEVELS DROP SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500
FEET DURING THE DAY AND THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS
BUILDING A RIDGE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA
FED BY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE LEVEL OF COLD TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE HAD LATELY. GIVEN THE PATTERN, HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CARRIED THAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY THOUGH HAVE DRIED OUT THE COLUMBIA BASIN. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN COOLED IT OFF TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH UPPER
20S TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY IN CASE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 33 28 45 41 / 60 10 20 90
ALW 35 31 45 41 / 60 10 20 90
PSC 35 27 41 39 / 60 10 20 90
YKM 37 27 39 34 / 60 10 60 90
HRI 34 26 42 39 / 60 10 20 90
ELN 36 26 37 32 / 60 10 70 90
RDM 42 26 45 37 / 40 20 60 90
LGD 40 27 40 36 / 50 20 20 90
GCD 41 27 41 35 / 30 20 20 90
DLS 37 30 38 36 / 30 10 70 90
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY
ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
77/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.
MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.
HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.
ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.
MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.
HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.
ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.
BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.
MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.
HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.
DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.
ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.
BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE