Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/19/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
928 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY. A FAST MOVING STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND ADVISORY FOR
HAMILTON COUNTY CONTINUES. MIDLEVEL VORTICITY CENTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TRACKING ALONG THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS TURNING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THIS VORTICITY
CENTER. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR
DATA. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL
SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...WHICH
CAN BE SEEN JUST BEGINNING TO HAPPEN IN RADAR DATA. JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE LAKE EFFECT AND COLD WEATHER IN THE REST
OF THE REGION IN THE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...
WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR AN INTENSE...WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
HERKIMER AND LEWIS/ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES TRIPLE POINT...TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STEADY-STATE POSITION TO THE BAND WITH A PERSISTENT 250 FLOW
TRAJECTORY. BY EARLY TO MID EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE BAND
TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY NORTH OF ROUTE 28...AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
TO A 260-270 TRAJECTORY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ALY
5KM WRF DEPICTS THE BAND SLOWLY DRIFTING S/SE AND EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING THE OLD FORGE AREA ALONG ROUTE 28 BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING AN
UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND TO IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH. THERE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY...WHICH TENDS TO MITIGATE THE INLAND EXTENT. THUS WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAINLY NORTH OLD FORGE WHERE 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH 4-8
INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF ROUTE 28. BASED ON
MITIGATING FACTORS...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH HAMILTON COUNTY WHERE 2-6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND INLET...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST
TOWARDS INDIAN LAKE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE COLD...DRY AND CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR LOWS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 10
BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF HERKIMER COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY TO START THE
MORNING...WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL MENTION
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INITIALLY...THEN WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE S/SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IN STORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES "WARMER" DUE TO A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE.
ON THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EAST...ANOTHER
SHOT OF DEEP COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE
FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPS
REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WNW THURSDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND EVEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT...ONCE
AGAIN BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM WITH SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LAST REMNANTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
IMPACT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC WITH A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. H850 TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
-13C TO -15C RANGE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME THERMAL ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
10 DEGREES WITH MILDER MINS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS
RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GFS...AND GEFS. AS THE WAVE LIFTS N/NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE STRONG QG LIFT GENERATED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SOAR BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING FROM THE
U30S TO L50S ON SUNDAY...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD 50S TO L60S ON
MONDAY...AS THE CYCLONE PASSES WELL WEST OF THE REGION INTO THE SE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY AND HIGH CHC VALUES.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS UPSTREAM...AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
NOVEMBER.
OVERALL...TEMPS COULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO
THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK WARM UP AND PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW TO
W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KT. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AT 10-15 KTS AS NIGHTTIME
SUBSIDENCE HELPS MIX SOME WINDS TO THE SURFACE. A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARDS NOONTIME. WINDS SHOULD
EASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 21Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THURSDAY FOR
FAVORED AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO ICE
FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
611 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY. A FAST MOVING STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND ADVISORY FOR
HAMILTON COUNTIES CONTINUES. THE BAND EXTENDING JUST TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF BOTH COUNTIES IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
BAND BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MESOSCALE MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE LAKE EFFECT
AND COLD WEATHER IN THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE PREVIOUS AFD
BELOW...
WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR AN INTENSE...WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
HERKIMER AND LEWIS/ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES TRIPLE POINT...TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STEADY-STATE POSITION TO THE BAND WITH A PERSISTENT 250 FLOW
TRAJECTORY. BY EARLY TO MID EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE BAND
TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY NORTH OF ROUTE 28...AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
TO A 260-270 TRAJECTORY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ALY
5KM WRF DEPICTS THE BAND SLOWLY DRIFTING S/SE AND EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING THE OLD FORGE AREA ALONG ROUTE 28 BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING AN
UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND TO IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH. THERE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY...WHICH TENDS TO MITIGATE THE INLAND EXTENT. THUS WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAINLY NORTH OLD FORGE WHERE 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH 4-8
INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF ROUTE 28. BASED ON
MITIGATING FACTORS...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH HAMILTON COUNTY WHERE 2-6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND INLET...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST
TOWARDS INDIAN LAKE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE COLD...DRY AND CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR LOWS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 10
BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF HERKIMER COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY TO START THE
MORNING...WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL MENTION
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INITIALLY...THEN WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE S/SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IN STORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES "WARMER" DUE TO A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE.
ON THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EAST...ANOTHER
SHOT OF DEEP COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE
FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPS
REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WNW THURSDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND EVEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT...ONCE
AGAIN BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM WITH SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LAST REMNANTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
IMPACT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC WITH A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. H850 TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
-13C TO -15C RANGE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME THERMAL ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
10 DEGREES WITH MILDER MINS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS
RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GFS...AND GEFS. AS THE WAVE LIFTS N/NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE STRONG QG LIFT GENERATED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SOAR BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING FROM THE
U30S TO L50S ON SUNDAY...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD 50S TO L60S ON
MONDAY...AS THE CYCLONE PASSES WELL WEST OF THE REGION INTO THE SE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY AND HIGH CHC VALUES.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS UPSTREAM...AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
NOVEMBER.
OVERALL...TEMPS COULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO
THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK WARM UP AND PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW TO
W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KT. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AT 10-15 KTS AS NIGHTTIME
SUBSIDENCE HELPS MIX SOME WINDS TO THE SURFACE. A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARDS NOONTIME. WINDS SHOULD
EASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 21Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THURSDAY FOR
FAVORED AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO ICE
FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
348 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO SPREAD N EARLY THIS MORNING...
VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH 13KM RAP TIMING. SEEING SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SNOW AND SLEET ON ITS LEADING EDGE DUE TO INITIAL WET BULB
COOLING AND LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...BUT RAP SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK WARMING TAKING PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF AREA. EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF W MA AND SW NH WHICH WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER...
SO WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED. NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ACROSS INTERIOR THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE
TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR BEGIN TO RISE
SLOWLY CLOSER TO COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS UNDERWAY.
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST BASED UPON 00Z MODELS
WHICH ARE OUTLINED BELOW. MAIN CONCERN NOW REVOLVES AROUND
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
* STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE MA S COAST AS WELL AS
EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY. NAM/GFS SHOW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET
PASSING OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS CENTERED AROUND 00Z TUE. THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN WARM SECTOR TO INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR 50-60KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ADDITION TO CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. IN ADDITION...HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW STRONG POTENTIAL FOR LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NW RI AND EASTERN MA
FROM METRO BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD ALSO GET
INTO WARM SECTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS /40-45KT/.
* HEAVY RAINFALL...
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AXIS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THAT WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN
THAT OCCURRING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 40S ACROSS INTERIOR WHERE COOLER AIR
WILL BE LOCKED IN...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO COAST RISE INTO 50S
AND LOWER 60S LATE IN DAY. BLENDED NAM 2M TEMPERATURES TO MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED A BIT TOO COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
RAIN ENDS QUICKLY FROM W TO E AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DRYING SETS IN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FREEZING OF LEFTOVER STANDING
WATER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW W WINDS TO DRY
THINGS OUT. NOT AN ISSUE CLOSER TO COAST WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES TUE ON BRISK W WINDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE SUNSHINE DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS CLOSER TO COAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUD STREETS SHOULD
ALSO FORM OFF COAST DUE TO COLDER AIR PASSING OVER MILDER OCEAN
SURFACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S NEAR
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TUE NIGHT INTO WED
* A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
* TEMPS TURN A BIT MILDER ON THU...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL
* ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FRI INTO SAT
* SIGNIFICANT WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK
DETAILS...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND ALASKA
WILL FORCE THE POLAR JET SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD/BLUSTERY WEATHER.
DESPITE WINDS NOT DECOUPLING TUE NIGHT...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST UNDER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
DAYBREAK WED!
DESPITE PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON WED...850 MB TEMPS AROUND -14C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MIDDLE 30S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...CERTAINLY MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN NOVEMBER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
GIVE THE COLD DOME IN PLACE...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS THIS WARMER AIR OVER RUNS
IT. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST. CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW...BUT A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS
COULD RECEIVE A COATING. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BY MID MORNING ON THU. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE DEVELOP BY THU AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MILDER THAN TUE
AND WED...RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION FRI INTO SAT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...TO THE
LOWER 40S ON FRI. SAT LOOKS VERY COLD WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 30S. IN FACT...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT BREAK
FREEZING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN! NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE THAT
EXTREME...BUT THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR ALSO LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER
WELL INTO THE 40S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 50 ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
OUR NORTHWEST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT MON...SO BIG
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
350 AM UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR CIGS NEAR S COAST SLOWLY EXPAND INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST SITES LOWERING TO MVFR BY 12Z AS RAIN SPREADS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN AREA OF -FZRA/-SN/-PL CONTINUES TO BE
ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS W MA AND SW
NH...BUT THESE AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWER FURTHER TO IFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND
FOG. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET /75KT AT 3KFT/ WILL BRING LLWS TO
MUCH OF RI AND SE MA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS 50-60KT POSSIBLE AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AND TO 45KT
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS FARTHER INLAND BUT
LLWS STILL A CONCERN WITH 40-45KT AT 3KFT.
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF I-90 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...OR EVEN NARROW LINE OF TSTMS...BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR FROM W TO E BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z
TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO W. VFR TUE WITH W WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER A
BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED THIS MORNING. MORE CONFIDENT ON WIND
TRENDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS LOWER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL
RAIN.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS IS WED NIGHT IN A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS THROUGH THU AND FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST ON
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
* DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT *
350 AM UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPANDED STORM WARNINGS TO INCLUDE MORE OF S COASTAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS. ONSET OF GALES IS AROUND MIDDAY ON SOUTHERN WATERS AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON EASTERN WATERS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CENTERED FEW HOURS AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS ALSO POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...OR A NARROW LINE OF STORMS...LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 12 FT SEAS ON OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO W LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS REGION. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AT LEAST 25-30KT...AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH.
BRISK W WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35KT EXPECTED TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WED AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT. SEAS 6
TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COLDER THAN THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN AND
SUPPORT GOOD MIXING. THEREFORE...EXPECT STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET IN
THIS REGION.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG SMALL CRAFT TO GALE
FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002>004-008>010-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ007-013>018.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ019>024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>235.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
251.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
256.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/JWD
MARINE...FRANK/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1006 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
.UPDATE...
WARM SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS IN THE 950-700MB
LAYER BOTH STRENGTHENED AND VEERED OVERNIGHT (SOUTH SOUTHWEST 25 -
30 KNOTS) AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT NEARS. THE MORNING XMR SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT POCKET OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB...THOUGH THERE EXISTS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO A PWAT OF
AROUND 1.5". AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY AND DRAW IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...EXPECT THE COLUMN TO MOISTEN
FURTHER TO AROUND 2.0" BY THIS EVENING.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S...THREATENING A FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING BRINGS DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT.
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED. A FEW
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUE INTO THE MID AND LATER
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE MAIN EVENT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET AS BETTER
FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH 500MB WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN TODAYS STORMS. FLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...THUS TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
LOCAL MODELLING AND HIGH-RES HRRR MODEL POINTS TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTY...AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH MESOSCALE ANALYSES THAT
POINT TO BETTER DYNAMICS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO OVER THE
PENINSULA. EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA
TONIGHT...APPROACHING LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTY WELL AFTER SUNSET
AND BEHIND MOST OF THE CONVECTION. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT IN THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS. LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES...LIFTING CURRENT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO VFR. ISOLATED SHRA
AND PERHAPS A TSRA COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA THAT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN
TERMINALS (LEE AND DAB) AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT LINE OF
CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH AS EVENING PROGRESSES. GUSTY WNW/NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES
INCREASING LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. ACTIVITY LATER TODAY WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFFSHORE WITH CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS POSSIBLE. SSE WINDS VEER TO
SSW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
GRADUALLY TOWARD THE W/NW BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY NEAR SHORE AND 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS AND GUSTY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
AND NEAR SHORE NORTH LEG AT 00Z AND SPREAD AREAWIDE AT 06Z. SEAS
GENERALLY 3-5 FT BUT WILL APPROACH 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BUILD NEAR SHORE 4-6 FT LATE
OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE CAPE AND UP TO 7 FT (LATE) NORTH OFFSHORE
LEG.
&&
.CLIMATE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT VERO
BEACH TODAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 17 NOV:
DAB 88 IN 1988.
MCO 89 IN 1957.
MLB 88 IN 1948.
VRB 86 IN 2011.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 48 60 38 / 60 80 20 10
MCO 83 55 60 39 / 60 80 20 10
MLB 86 59 63 43 / 50 80 40 10
VRB 86 64 66 49 / 60 80 50 10
LEE 82 48 57 34 / 70 80 10 10
SFB 83 53 60 38 / 60 80 20 10
ORL 83 52 60 40 / 60 80 20 10
FPR 86 64 66 50 / 60 70 50 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...MOSES
AVIATION/FORECAST...ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF AREA LATE THIS
MORNING... FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST GA. A VERY WARM...MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF A WARM FRONT
THAT LIFTED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND COULD BRIEFLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN
SOME PLACES IN NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE SURGED
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY
ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROGRESS
TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND 2 PM...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND 4 PM. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING SEVERAL TORNADOES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA. THE MODE OF CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY
SHIFTED FROM THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SEEN EARLIER UPSTREAM...TO
MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER...WITH
THE HRRR SOUNDINGS AT KSAV DEPICTING 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 27 KT
AND 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF 43 KT DUE TO A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET
ALOFT. IN ORDER TO TAP INTO THESE WINDS HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS NEEDED TO SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...AND IT
APPEARS THAT WE MAY ATTAIN CAPE VALUES UP AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS.
GIVEN THESE VALUES...IT APPEARS THE AREA IS PRIMED FOR A POTENTIAL
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...SUPPORTED BY SHERB
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO TO OCCUR. THE HIGHEST
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE RAINS SHIFTING QUICKLY OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THEN COLD AIR WILL COME POURING IN ON THE
HEELS OF STRONG PRES RISES. NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN GEORGIA AREAS AND BORDERING THE FAR SE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BUT WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BIG EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
FREEZE WATCH TO ALERT FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE
OCEAN...A VERY RARE EVENT FOR MID NOVEMBER ON BEACHES AND BARRIER
ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. DOWNSLOPE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SOMEWHAT TEMPER THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
EVEN SO...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WITH FULL SUN SUPPORT HIGHS
ONLY FROM THE UPPERS 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED HIGHS FROM THE NEAR 50 IN MOST AREAS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AT ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN IN MANY AREAS
SINCE JANUARY 25TH 2014. CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS COMBINED
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO REACH ALL BEACHES. LOOKS LIKE 10 TO 13
HOURS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS
RANGING TO 2 TO 4 HOURS AT THE GEORGIA BEACHES. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH FOR ALL AREAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY HOURS...PRECAUTIONS NEED
TO BE TAKEN TO PROTECT EXPOSED PIPES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER A FRIGID START ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR
50 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO THERE WILL NOT BE ANY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES MORE QUICKLY. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO TUESDAY
NIGHTS LEVELS. EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN ALL AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON. AS A
RESULT...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT NO FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNLESS FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT
OCCUR EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON
THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREA NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN A GENERAL MODERATING TREND DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR PERHAPS EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME
QUITE PRONOUNCED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
WEATHER WILL GET MORE UNSETTLED THEN AND AT LEAST FOR NOW INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINALS IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. MODERATE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ONCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
OTHERWISE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH
IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT THE MIXING PROFILES ARE QUITE POOR CLOSE TO
SHORE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO 60F. THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOWED AN
SCA TO CONTINUE NORTH OF SAVANNAH TODAY.
THE TWO MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WILL BE CONVECTION LATER TODAY
AND POSSIBLE GALES OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KT AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS
ESPECIALLY OVER WATERS SEAWARD FROM THE PILOT BUOYS. THE TIMING
LOOKS TO BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE GALE RISK WAS HIGH ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO HOIST A GALE WATCH
TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. GRAYS REEF COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM LATE EVENING TO 6 AM AS JETTING
AND LOW LEVEL MOMENTUM PROGS ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE GIVEN THE
SHARP ISALLOBARIC RISES ANTICIPATED. OTHER WATERS WILL BE IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR AMZ352 AND AMZ354 ARE EXPECTED TO END TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS AMZ374 SHOULD END EARLY ON
TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS MAINLY AOB 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 18TH...
KCHS...49 SET IN 2008.
KCHL...48 SET IN 1951.
KSAV...45 SET IN 1891.
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 19TH...
KCHS...27 SET IN 1949.
KCHL...31 SET IN 1903.
KSAV...27 SET IN 2008 AND PREVIOUS.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 19TH...
KCHS...44 SET IN 2000.
KCHL...45 SET IN 1951.
KSAV...44 SET IN 2000.
RECORD LOW FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON...
KCHS...22 NOVEMBER 16 1940.
KCHL...28 NOVEMBER 16 1940.
KSAV...24 NOVEMBER 3 1954.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330-350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE
LONG TERM...MTE
AVIATION...JAQ/MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1135 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF AREA LATE THIS
MORNING... FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST GA. A VERY WARM...MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF A WARM FRONT
THAT LIFTED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN SOME
PLACES IN NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE SURGED
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON...THEN
PROGRESS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND 2 PM...BEFORE PUSHING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND 4 PM. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING SEVERAL TORNADOES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA. AS THE STORMS SHIFT INTO THE
AREA...THE MODE OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FROM THE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS SEEN EARLIER UPSTREAM...TO MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER...WITH THE HRRR SOUNDINGS AT KSAV DEPICTING 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 27 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF 43 KT DUE TO A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT. IN ORDER TO TAP INTO THESE WINDS
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS NEEDED TO SUPPORT DEEP
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...AND IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY ATTAIN CAPE VALUES
UP AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THESE VALUES...IT APPEARS THE
AREA IS PRIMED FOR A POTENTIAL HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...SUPPORTED BY SHERB VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO TO OCCUR. THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL
ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE RAINS SHIFTING QUICKLY OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THEN COLD AIR WILL COME POURING IN ON THE
HEELS OF STRONG PRES RISES. NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN GEORGIA AREAS AND BORDERING THE FAR SE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BUT WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BIG EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
FREEZE WATCH TO ALERT FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE
OCEAN...A VERY RARE EVENT FOR MID NOVEMBER ON BEACHES AND BARRIER
ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. DOWNSLOPE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SOMEWHAT TEMPER THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
EVEN SO...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WITH FULL SUN SUPPORT HIGHS
ONLY FROM THE UPPERS 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED HIGHS FROM THE NEAR 50 IN MOST AREAS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AT ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN IN MANY AREAS
SINCE JANUARY 25TH 2014. CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS COMBINED
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO REACH ALL BEACHES. LOOKS LIKE 10 TO 13
HOURS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS
RANGING TO 2 TO 4 HOURS AT THE GEORGIA BEACHES. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH FOR ALL AREAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY HOURS...PRECAUTIONS NEED
TO BE TAKEN TO PROTECT EXPOSED PIPES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER A FRIGID START ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR
50 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO THERE WILL NOT BE ANY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES MORE QUICKLY. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO TUESDAY
NIGHTS LEVELS. EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN ALL AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON. AS A
RESULT...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT NO FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNLESS FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT
OCCUR EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON
THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREA NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN A GENERAL MODERATING TREND DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR PERHAPS EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME
QUITE PRONOUNCED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
WEATHER WILL GET MORE UNSETTLED THEN AND AT LEAST FOR NOW INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DENSE FOG FROM THE OVERNIGHT HAS LIFTED AT KCHS AND HAS BEEN
OUT OF KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AT
BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH FROM 18Z TO 22Z
TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE IT REACHES KSAV BEFORE 18Z GIVEN
SOME OF THE LATEST UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE
RAMPING UP THIS MORNING AND PRE-FRONTAL TODAY AND SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE VFR TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NW AND
PERIODS OF GUSTINESS ARE LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
OTHERWISE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH
IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT THE MIXING PROFILES ARE QUITE POOR CLOSE TO
SHORE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO 60F. THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOWED AN
SCA TO CONTINUE NORTH OF SAVANNAH TODAY.
THE TWO MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WILL BE CONVECTION LATER TODAY
AND POSSIBLE GALES OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KT AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS
ESPECIALLY OVER WATERS SEAWARD FROM THE PILOT BUOYS. THE TIMING
LOOKS TO BE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE GALE RISK WAS HIGH ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO HOIST A GALE WATCH
TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. GRAYS REEF COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM LATE EVENING TO 6 AM AS JETTING
AND LOW LEVEL MOMENTUM PROGS ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE GIVEN THE
SHARP ISALLOBARIC RISES ANTICIPATED. OTHER WATERS WILL BE IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR AMZ352 AND AMZ354 ARE EXPECTED TO END TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS AMZ374 SHOULD END EARLY ON
TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS MAINLY AOB 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 18TH...
KCHS...49 SET IN 2008.
KCHL...48 SET IN 1951.
KSAV...45 SET IN 1891.
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 19TH...
KCHS...27 SET IN 1949.
KCHL...31 SET IN 1903.
KSAV...27 SET IN 2008 AND PREVIOUS.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 19TH...
KCHS...44 SET IN 2000.
KCHL...45 SET IN 1951.
KSAV...44 SET IN 2000.
RECORD LOW FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON...
KCHS...22 NOVEMBER 16 1940.
KCHL...28 NOVEMBER 16 1940.
KSAV...24 NOVEMBER 3 1954.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330-350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MTE
LONG TERM...MTE
AVIATION...
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIMES
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
713 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MICHIGAN. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO PRIMARILY AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TEENS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND
ISSUES AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER
WI HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS
FEATURE...CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS
TO PERSIST WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER
HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER
CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND
CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO 15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT
ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN.
COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO
CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS.
STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS
AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS
FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE
FALLING OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST
AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY
BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS
STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY
TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART
STILL SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER
GARCIA/MIXING RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS
INDICATED WITH OVER 2 G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES
BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED
FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE
TERMINALS JUST AFT DAYBREAK WED BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTN.
VIS/CIG IMPACTS XPCD TO REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE OTRWS BECOMING WINDY
AGAIN W/SFC GUSTS ARND 25KTS ESP DURING THE AFTN AS SHARP LL CAA
WEDGE WRAPS EWD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003>006.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077>080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ077-078.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
639 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MICHIGAN. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO PRIMARILY AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TEENS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND
ISSUES AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER
WI HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS
FEATURE...CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS
TO PERSIST WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER
HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER
CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND
CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO 15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT
ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN.
COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO
CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS.
STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS
AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS
FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE
FALLING OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST
AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY
BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS
STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY
TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART
STILL SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER
GARCIA/MIXING RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS
INDICATED WITH OVER 2 G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES
BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED
FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE
TERMINALS JUST AFT DAYBREAK WED BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTN.
VIS/CIG IMPACTS XPCD TO REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE OTRWS BECOMING WINDY
AGAIN W/SFC GUSTS ARND 25KTS ESP DURING THE AFTN AS SHARP LL CAA
WEDGE WRAPS EWD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003>006.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077>080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ077-078.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
259 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
CLEARLY DEFINED CLOUD STREETS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE A FEW HOURS
AGO BEGAN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE LAST HOUR AND
THESE HAVE MADE IT INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS FAR THE IMPACT
SEEMS TO BE VISIBILITIES ONLY AS LOW AS 2-3SM OR WITH NO VISIBILITY
IMPACT AT ALL. BASED ON HRRR AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM EXPECT THESE
SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY IN
INTENSITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO CUT OFF TIMING A LITTLE EARLY
BASED ON LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. APPEARS THESE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE WANING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z...AND TRIED TO DEPICT THIS
IN THE GRIDS. OPTED TO STICK WITH AN SPS TO HANDLE THE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HWO AND WX
STORY WILL ALSO REFLECT THE IMPACTS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TRAVEL WX.
LEFT IN CHANCES FOR FLURRIES FOR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS ENERGY FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION. BIG STORY THEN TURNS TO TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO
-20-22 TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO GET DOWN TO 7-10 FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE 0 TO -10 RANGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON CENTRAL INDIANA IS FEELING THE IMPACT OF WIND CHILLS IN
THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. TUESDAY MAY BREAK THE RECORD FOR LOW
MAXIMUM WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 20S.
FORECASTING 19 FOR KIND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE HIGH TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AGAIN WE WILL BE PLAGUED
WITH STRONG WINDS THAT WILL MAKE FOR COLD WIND CHILLS EVEN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE SNOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY AS THE AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...READINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE FREEZING MARK ON WEDNESDAY...FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM COLD AND DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TO MILD AND WET WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND ON.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL MVOE TO THE
EAST AS MODELS MOVE AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN MOVING PRECIPITATION QUICKER OUR WAY IN THE LATEST RUN.
THEY ALL BRING IN SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE IT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIG
ISSUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 INDICATE FREEZING RAIN THE
MOST LIKELY TYPE SOUTH HALF FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST AREAS SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THOSE AREAS THEN AND
THEN ALL RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS BLEND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS BRING IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN VFR LATE TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY.
SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SEVERAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD
CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATION IN VISIBILITIES BY 20Z AND LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL ADD A PREVAILING 4 MILES AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEGINNING 20Z...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES COULD BE BRIEFLY LOWER.
AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 07Z.
WEST SURFACE WINDS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WEST OR SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JEH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WERE
CANCELLED AS THE SNOW HAS SINCE EXITED THE REGION.
DRIER AIR IS WRAPPING BACK INTO THE REGION AND HAS EVEN BROUGHT A
FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. THE COLD
POOL WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PINWHEELS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO DEVELOP...WHICH HAS BEEN DISCUSSED
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS ALREADY COME TO FRUITION OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. INCREASED POPS HERE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MODELS IN GENERAL TEND TO
STRUGGLE IN THIS SETUP AND OFTEN UNDERDO THE SNOW POTENTIAL
BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WELL. AND
INDEED THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE AS ALL OF THE REGULAR SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON THESE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...NOR SHOWING ANYTHING DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER THE WRF AND EVEN THE HRRR ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
TREND AND SHOW THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING BOTH IN
COVERAGE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND INTENSITY. THESE MODELS
ARE CLEARLY SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SQUALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHILE THE
NAM/GFS/EURO/GEM HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE
WRF/HRRR ARE CORRECT...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
30 MPH EXPECTED...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL CONCERNS AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
AN SPS FOR THE ABOVE CONCERNS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
JUST RECENTLY UPDATED AND RESENT. POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA BASED ON THE WRF/HRRR TIMING TO HIT
HARDER ON THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
HWO AND WX STORY ALSO REFLECT THIS MESSAGE...QUESTION THEN IS IS
ANOTHER ADVISORY NEEDED FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE IF POTENTIALLY WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE? EVEN THOUGH NO TECHNICAL CRITERIA FOR
A WINTER WX ADVISORY OR HEAVY SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE MET...AS THE
SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL IF AT ALL ANY
ACCUM...THE IMPACT COULD BE THERE AND THAT IS WHAT WILL BE LOOKED
AT AND DISCUSSED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. AND AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENING COMMUTE MIGHT BE OF GREATER
CONCERN THAN THIS MORNING/S. WHILE SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY A
DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...THE SNOW WILL BE
DRIER AND MUCH EASIER TO BLOW AROUND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SNOW
CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY.
AN EVEN STRONGER BLAST OF COLD AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN POISED TO
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM. AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING...LIKELY NOT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF FORCING ALOFT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FORCING
ALOFT WEAKENS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS NORTH OF I-70 FROM A
DUSTING UP TO CLOSE TO AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ALONG WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF COLDER AIR.
TEMPS...DEFINITELY THE BIG STORY OF THE SHORT TERM. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH SNOWCOVER AND 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AT -21 TO -20C BY TUESDAY MORNING. THINK MOST LOCATIONS GET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY MODEST RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL
END UP RIGHT AROUND 20. LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER END OF GUIDANCE THE
REST OF THE WAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
INDY RECORDS FOR TUESDAY...RECORD LOW IS 5 (1880) AND RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP IS 20 (1880). POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SINGLE DIGIT LOW IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11/30/1976.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT TO AS LATE AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL BROADBRUSH POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL COLD AIR AROUND FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN VFR LATE TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY.
SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SEVERAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD
CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATION IN VISIBILITIES BY 20Z AND LASTING AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL ADD A PREVAILING 4 MILES AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEGINNING 20Z...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES COULD BE BRIEFLY LOWER.
AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 07Z.
WEST SURFACE WINDS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WEST OR SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1148 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WERE
CANCELLED AS THE SNOW HAS SINCE EXITED THE REGION.
DRIER AIR IS WRAPPING BACK INTO THE REGION AND HAS EVEN BROUGHT A
FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. THE COLD
POOL WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PINWHEELS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO DEVELOP...WHICH HAS BEEN DISCUSSED
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS ALREADY COME TO FRUITION OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA. INCREASED POPS HERE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
ELSEWHERE.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MODELS IN GENERAL TEND TO
STRUGGLE IN THIS SETUP AND OFTEN UNDERDO THE SNOW POTENTIAL
BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WELL. AND
INDEED THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE AS ALL OF THE REGULAR SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON THESE CURRENT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...NOR SHOWING ANYTHING DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE WRF AND EVEN THE HRRR ARE PICKING UP ON
THIS TREND AND SHOW THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING BOTH
IN COVERAGE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND INTENSITY. THESE
MODELS ARE CLEARLY SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SQUALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WHILE THE NAM/GFS/EURO/GEM HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. IF THE WRF/HRRR ARE CORRECT...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL CONCERNS AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE.
AN SPS FOR THE ABOVE CONCERNS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
JUST RECENTLY UPDATED AND RESENT. POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA BASED ON THE WRF/HRRR TIMING TO HIT
HARDER ON THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
HWO AND WX STORY ALSO REFLECT THIS MESSAGE...QUESTION THEN IS IS
ANOTHER ADVISORY NEEDED FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE IF POTENTIALLY WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE? EVEN THOUGH NO TECHNICAL CRITERIA FOR
A WINTER WX ADVISORY OR HEAVY SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE MET...AS THE
SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL IF AT ALL ANY
ACCUM...THE IMPACT COULD BE THERE AND THAT IS WHAT WILL BE LOOKED
AT AND DISCUSSED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. AND AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENING COMMUTE MIGHT BE OF GREATER
CONCERN THAN THIS MORNING/S. WHILE SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY A
DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...THE SNOW WILL BE
DRIER AND MUCH EASIER TO BLOW AROUND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SNOW
CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY.
AN EVEN STRONGER BLAST OF COLD AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN POISED TO
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM. AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING...LIKELY NOT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF FORCING ALOFT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FORCING
ALOFT WEAKENS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS NORTH OF I-70 FROM A
DUSTING UP TO CLOSE TO AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ALONG WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF COLDER AIR.
TEMPS...DEFINITELY THE BIG STORY OF THE SHORT TERM. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH SNOWCOVER AND 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AT -21 TO -20C BY TUESDAY MORNING. THINK MOST LOCATIONS GET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY MODEST RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL
END UP RIGHT AROUND 20. LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER END OF GUIDANCE THE
REST OF THE WAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
INDY RECORDS FOR TUESDAY...RECORD LOW IS 5 (1880) AND RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP IS 20 (1880). POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SINGLE DIGIT LOW IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11/30/1976.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT TO AS LATE AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL BROADBRUSH POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL COLD AIR AROUND FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BACK EDGE OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 012 CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN BORDER ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE TAF SITES BY
171400Z.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEAR DRY ADIABATIC BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 TO DEVELOP BY THAT
TIME...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL
REFRAIN FROM AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MORNING GOES
BY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 270-300 DEGREES EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
1345Z UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM
THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED. NEEDED TO
DO A LITTLE EXTENSION FOR FAR SE/EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE
SNOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THESE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH...POSSIBLY UP
TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE ADVISORY IS NOW SET TO THROUGH 11AM.
ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS
IN TEMP/SKY/WIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
STEADY SNOWFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY
METRO-MUNCIE LINE AS OF 08Z. BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD HAS
BACKPEDALED NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AS THE SHARP UPPER
WAVE QUICKLY TRACKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND FALLING WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE SNOW CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ITS DEPARTURE OFF TO THE EAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. DESPITE THE PIVOT BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO SHIFT MUCH
FURTHER NORTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. HRRR AND THE WRF BOTH HAVE A NICE
HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SNOWFALL AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AFTER 09-10Z...WITH
PRECIP ENDING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 14-15Z. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY IN ITS CURRENT STATE THROUGH 14Z. HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO...BUT STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TO
TACK ON ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CITY BEFORE SNOW ENDS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SNOWFALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY.
COLD POOL BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN
DISCUSSED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS IN GENERAL
TEND TO STRUGGLE IN THIS SETUP AND OFTEN UNDER-DO THE SNOW POTENTIAL
BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WELL. THE WRF
DOES A BETTER JOB IN THIS REGARD AND NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN ITS
WINDOW...IT IS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE COULD CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING COLD
ADVECTION AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO
850MB SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH WIND GUSTS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A GREATER IMPACT ON
TRAVEL THAN THE SNOW EXPERIENCED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST...THE SNOW WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH EASIER TO BLOW AROUND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. AS CRAZY AS THIS SOUNDS...HAVE A GROWING CONCERN THAT THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH HOUR COULD BE MORE GREATLY IMPACTED THAN
THIS MORNING. WILL BE INTRODUCING AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS
FOR LATER TODAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS ARE TRICKY FOR TODAY CONSIDERING THEY ARE LARGELY
LOWER THAN CURRENT READINGS THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF RISE IN
TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS THEREAFTER AS THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES. A MOS BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS...THEN
USED A MIX OF NAM/LAMP DATA FOR THE FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SNOW
CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY.
AN EVEN STRONGER BLAST OF COLD AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN POISED TO
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM. AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING...LIKELY NOT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF FORCING ALOFT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FORCING
ALOFT WEAKENS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS NORTH OF I-70 FROM A
DUSTING UP TO CLOSE TO AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ALONG WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF COLDER AIR.
TEMPS...DEFINITELY THE BIG STORY OF THE SHORT TERM. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH SNOWCOVER AND 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AT -21 TO -20C BY TUESDAY MORNING. THINK MOST LOCATIONS GET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY MODEST RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL
END UP RIGHT AROUND 20. LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER END OF GUIDANCE THE
REST OF THE WAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
INDY RECORDS FOR TUESDAY...RECORD LOW IS 5 (1880) AND RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP IS 20 (1880). POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SINGLE DIGIT LOW IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11/30/1976.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT TO AS LATE AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL BROADBRUSH POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL COLD AIR AROUND FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BACK EDGE OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 012 CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN BORDER ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE TAF SITES BY
171400Z.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEAR DRY ADIABATIC BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 TO DEVELOP BY THAT
TIME...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL
REFRAIN FROM AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MORNING GOES
BY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 270-300 DEGREES EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ042-
049-057-064-065-071-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF/RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
909 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 848 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
1345Z UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM
THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED. NEEDED TO
DO A LITTLE EXTENSION FOR FAR SE/EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE
SNOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THESE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH...POSSIBLY UP
TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE ADVISORY IS NOW SET TO THROUGH 11AM.
ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS
IN TEMP/SKY/WIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
STEADY SNOWFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY
METRO-MUNCIE LINE AS OF 08Z. BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD HAS
BACKPEDALED NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AS THE SHARP UPPER
WAVE QUICKLY TRACKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND FALLING WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE SNOW CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ITS DEPARTURE OFF TO THE EAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. DESPITE THE PIVOT BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO SHIFT MUCH
FURTHER NORTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. HRRR AND THE WRF BOTH HAVE A NICE
HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SNOWFALL AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AFTER 09-10Z...WITH
PRECIP ENDING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 14-15Z. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY IN ITS CURRENT STATE THROUGH 14Z. HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO...BUT STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TO
TACK ON ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CITY BEFORE SNOW ENDS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SNOWFALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY.
COLD POOL BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN
DISCUSSED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS IN GENERAL
TEND TO STRUGGLE IN THIS SETUP AND OFTEN UNDER-DO THE SNOW POTENTIAL
BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WELL. THE WRF
DOES A BETTER JOB IN THIS REGARD AND NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN ITS
WINDOW...IT IS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE COULD CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING COLD
ADVECTION AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO
850MB SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH WIND GUSTS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A GREATER IMPACT ON
TRAVEL THAN THE SNOW EXPERIENCED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST...THE SNOW WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH EASIER TO BLOW AROUND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. AS CRAZY AS THIS SOUNDS...HAVE A GROWING CONCERN THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH HOUR COULD BE MORE GREATLY IMPACTED THAN THIS
MORNING. WILL BE INTRODUCING AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS FOR
LATER TODAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS ARE TRICKY FOR TODAY CONSIDERING THEY ARE LARGELY
LOWER THAN CURRENT READINGS THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF RISE IN
TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS THEREAFTER AS THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES. A MOS BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS...THEN
USED A MIX OF NAM/LAMP DATA FOR THE FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SNOW
CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY.
AN EVEN STRONGER BLAST OF COLD AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN POISED TO
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM. AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING...LIKELY NOT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF FORCING ALOFT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FORCING
ALOFT WEAKENS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS NORTH OF I-70 FROM A
DUSTING UP TO CLOSE TO AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ALONG WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF COLDER AIR.
TEMPS...DEFINITELY THE BIG STORY OF THE SHORT TERM. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH SNOWCOVER AND 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AT -21 TO -20C BY TUESDAY MORNING. THINK MOST LOCATIONS GET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY MODEST RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL
END UP RIGHT AROUND 20. LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER END OF GUIDANCE THE
REST OF THE WAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
INDY RECORDS FOR TUESDAY...RECORD LOW IS 5 (1880) AND RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP IS 20 (1880). POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SINGLE DIGIT LOW IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11/30/1976.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT TO AS LATE AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL BROADBRUSH POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL COLD AIR AROUND FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
BACK EDGE OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 012 CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN BORDER ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE TAF SITES BY
171400Z.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEAR DRY ADIABATIC BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 TO DEVELOP BY THAT
TIME...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL
REFRAIN FROM AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MORNING GOES
BY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 270-300 DEGREES EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ042-
049-057-064-065-071-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF/RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
538 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
STEADY SNOWFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY
METRO-MUNCIE LINE AS OF 08Z. BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD HAS
BACKPEDALED NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AS THE SHARP UPPER
WAVE QUICKLY TRACKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND FALLING WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE SNOW CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ITS DEPARTURE OFF TO THE EAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. DESPITE THE PIVOT BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO SHIFT MUCH
FURTHER NORTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. HRRR AND THE WRF BOTH HAVE A NICE
HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SNOWFALL AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AFTER 09-10Z...WITH
PRECIP ENDING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 14-15Z. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY IN ITS CURRENT STATE THROUGH 14Z. HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO...BUT STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TO
TACK ON ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CITY BEFORE SNOW ENDS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SNOWFALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY.
COLD POOL BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN
DISCUSSED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS IN GENERAL
TEND TO STRUGGLE IN THIS SETUP AND OFTEN UNDERDO THE SNOW POTENTIAL
BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WELL. THE WRF
DOES A BETTER JOB IN THIS REGARD AND NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN ITS
WINDOW...IT IS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE COULD CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING COLD
ADVECTION AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO
850MB SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH WIND GUSTS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A GREATER IMPACT ON
TRAVEL THAN THE SNOW EXPERIENCED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST...THE SNOW WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH EASIER TO BLOW AROUND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. AS CRAZY AS THIS SOUNDS...HAVE A GROWING CONCERN THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH HOUR COULD BE MORE GREATLY IMPACTED THAN THIS
MORNING. WILL BE INTRODUCING AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS FOR
LATER TODAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS ARE TRICKY FOR TODAY CONSIDERING THEY ARE LARGELY
LOWER THAN CURRENT READINGS THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF RISE IN
TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS THEREAFTER AS THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES. A MOS BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS...THEN
USED A MIX OF NAM/LAMP DATA FOR THE FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SNOW
CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY.
AN EVEN STRONGER BLAST OF COLD AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN POISED TO
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM. AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING...LIKELY NOT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF FORCING ALOFT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FORCING
ALOFT WEAKENS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS NORTH OF I-70 FROM A
DUSTING UP TO CLOSE TO AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ALONG WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF COLDER AIR.
TEMPS...DEFINITELY THE BIG STORY OF THE SHORT TERM. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH SNOWCOVER AND 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AT -21 TO -20C BY TUESDAY MORNING. THINK MOST LOCATIONS GET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY MODEST RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL
END UP RIGHT AROUND 20. LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER END OF GUIDANCE THE
REST OF THE WAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
INDY RECORDS FOR TUESDAY...RECORD LOW IS 5 (1880) AND RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP IS 20 (1880). POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SINGLE DIGIT LOW IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11/30/1976.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT TO AS LATE AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL BROADBRUSH POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL COLD AIR AROUND FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
BACK EDGE OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 012 CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN BORDER ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE TAF SITES BY
171400Z.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEAR DRY ADIABATIC BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 TO DEVELOP BY THAT
TIME...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL
REFRAIN FROM AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MORNING GOES
BY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 270-300 DEGREES EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ037>042-045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM AND AVIATION
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
STEADY SNOWFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY
METRO-MUNCIE LINE AS OF 08Z. BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD HAS
BACKPEDALED NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AS THE SHARP UPPER
WAVE QUICKLY TRACKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND FALLING WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE SNOW CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ITS DEPARTURE OFF TO THE EAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. DESPITE THE PIVOT BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO SHIFT MUCH
FURTHER NORTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. HRRR AND THE WRF BOTH HAVE A NICE
HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SNOWFALL AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AFTER 09-10Z...WITH
PRECIP ENDING OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 14-15Z. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ADVISORY IN ITS CURRENT STATE THROUGH 14Z. HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO...BUT STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TO
TACK ON ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CITY BEFORE SNOW ENDS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SNOWFALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY.
COLD POOL BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN
DISCUSSED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS IN GENERAL
TEND TO STRUGGLE IN THIS SETUP AND OFTEN UNDERDO THE SNOW POTENTIAL
BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WELL. THE WRF
DOES A BETTER JOB IN THIS REGARD AND NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN ITS
WINDOW...IT IS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE COULD CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING COLD
ADVECTION AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO
850MB SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH WIND GUSTS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A GREATER IMPACT ON
TRAVEL THAN THE SNOW EXPERIENCED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST...THE SNOW WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH EASIER TO BLOW AROUND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. AS CRAZY AS THIS SOUNDS...HAVE A GROWING CONCERN THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH HOUR COULD BE MORE GREATLY IMPACTED THAN THIS
MORNING. WILL BE INTRODUCING AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS FOR
LATER TODAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS ARE TRICKY FOR TODAY CONSIDERING THEY ARE LARGELY
LOWER THAN CURRENT READINGS THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF RISE IN
TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS THEREAFTER AS THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES. A MOS BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS...THEN
USED A MIX OF NAM/LAMP DATA FOR THE FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SNOW
CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY.
AN EVEN STRONGER BLAST OF COLD AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN POISED TO
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM. AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING...LIKELY NOT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF FORCING ALOFT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FORCING
ALOFT WEAKENS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS NORTH OF I-70 FROM A
DUSTING UP TO CLOSE TO AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ALONG WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF COLDER AIR.
TEMPS...DEFINITELY THE BIG STORY OF THE SHORT TERM. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH SNOWCOVER AND 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AT -21 TO -20C BY TUESDAY MORNING. THINK MOST LOCATIONS GET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY MODEST RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGHS WILL
END UP RIGHT AROUND 20. LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER END OF GUIDANCE THE
REST OF THE WAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
INDY RECORDS FOR TUESDAY...RECORD LOW IS 5 (1880) AND RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP IS 20 (1880). POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SINGLE DIGIT LOW IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11/30/1976.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT TO AS LATE AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL BROADBRUSH POPS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL COLD AIR AROUND FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
NORTHWEST EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD JUST SCRAPING THE KIND VICINITY.
EXPECTING THE SNOW TO END AT KIND OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS LIFTING INTO AN MVFR DECK AROUND 012-015
OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE IFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT KLAF AND AND KHUF...AND IS MAINLY CONFINED TO
KIND AND KBMG AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO
MVFR CATEGORY AT KHUF...BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER AT KLAF A BIT
LONGER. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO KIND AND KBMG
AFTER MON 08Z WHEN SNOW INTENSITY WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DID HOLD
ONTO MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK AT THOSE 2
SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY BY MON 14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
AN ISSUE...BLOWING SNOW AROUND. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE END OF
TAF PERIOD AT KLAF/KIND/KHUF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ037>042-045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1108 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Updated Aviation discussion for 06Z TAF Issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 937 CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Making some minor adjustments to snow totals, but overall the
package looks good. The heaviest precipitation band has set up
from Stoddard county in SEMO to the northwest half of McCracken
towards Henderson county to Spencer county. This has pretty much
been the story so far this evening.
The HRRR model depicts things pretty well and we expect that
heavier band to stay in place through about midnight, then the
band should actually shift to the north a bit as the main short
wave gets closer. This band then slides southeast through the
early morning hours.
Already had some 2+ inch amounts along the Wabash/Ohio River
areas and once the temperature drops to 32 the accumulations
start. The 32 degree line essentially runs from EVV to PAH and is
slowly moving southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 134 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Confidence in increasing that there will be a fairly significant
snow event along the Ohio River and back into extreme southeast
Missouri. 12z GFS, in particular has honed in on a precip max
along that axis for several runs now, and thermal profiles suggest
that axis will likely correspond to where the initial snow/mix line
will set up early this evening. Expecting very close to .40 inches
liquid QPF, so will increase snow projections into the 3-5 inch
range. Have already upgraded to warning headlines along the Ohio
River for tonight. See no need for further adjustments at this
time. Still looking for all snow northwest of the warning area,
but QPF will likely not be quite as high. Will need to monitor
though, because have already heard of at least one report of 3.5
inches out to our west in the SGF CWA. Will stick with the
advisory in our nw half for the time being. Still lots of
uncertainties concerning precip type and the timing of the
transition from rain/sleet over to snow, most likely around
or after the midnight time frame far southeast locations. Believe
there will still be enough moisture left after the transition
over to snow later tonight for an inch or so to accumulate before
the precip comes to an end around dawn Monday. Thus, will
continue with the Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the CWA
surrounding the warning area.
Next big story lies with the bitterly cold Arctic air that will
follow early in the week. Blustery winds gusting over 20 mph on
Monday may cause some blowing or drifting of any snow that is on
the ground and hold daytime temps nearly steady in the 20s. Will
then challenge record low temps Monday night as reading fall down
into the 10 to 15 degree range. Wind chill values could be near
zero by the time many awake and head out on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. will keep our region
dry Tuesday night into Wednesday, and a return of south to southwest
winds will help temperatures moderate a little from the very cold
temperatures early in the work week. Models continue to show a weak
dry cold front moving across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring another
shot of colder air, with highs Thursday and Friday again dropping
back a couple to several degrees.
For Thursday night and beyond, models continue to be all over the
place. GFS brings in a shot of precip late Thursday into Thursday
night, then another shot Saturday and through the weekend. ECMWF
bring precip into the area late Friday and continues through the
weekend. GEM keeps us dry through 12z Saturday, but does match up
well to the GFS at that time. Went ahead and kept some small PoPs
in across much of the PAH forecast area Thursday night for some
light snow. By Saturday, when models seems to be lining up, went
with slight chance pops for Saturday for most of the PAH fa, with
increasing chances Saturday night into Sunday. Fortunately, it
looks like temperatures will be warm enough that it will just be
rain through the weekend. High by Sunday will only be a few degrees
below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1105 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
All terminals should have changed over to snow by press time, as
the 32 line likewise makes its passage soon thereafter. IFR cigs
and vsbys accompany bands of moderate snow, while low end MVFR
cigs and vsbys prevail through the course of the night. The system
lifts out early, with improvement to VFR conditions anticipated
during the daylight hours, although cigs may maintain in the
northeast (KEVV/KOWB). Winds will stiffen and become gusty during
the pm hours.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ087-089>094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075>078-
080>086-088.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ110>112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>109.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR INZ085>088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Monday FOR INZ081-082.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ003>005-007-
010-014-015-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-002-006-
008-009-011>013-016-017-020>022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1151 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 PM EST Nov 16 2014
Will be issuing an update to the Winter headline product soon, just
to freshen up the wording, not change any of the main points. Have
a pretty solid band of snow headed towards our northern forecast
area with more mixy precip still occurring on the south side of the
band. KOWB still is reporting rain even at 33 degrees, and KSDF has
been fluctuating between -RA, -RASN, and -RAPL, indicative of that
warm layer aloft, which should finally start pushing steadily south
a few hours after Midnight.
With the approach of the shortwave over Oklahoma still expecting an
increase in radar coverage overnight, which should hit most of the
advisory area. The southern edge will continue to run low on totals
given the warm initial ground cover as well as the antecedent rains.
Issued at 840 PM EST Nov 16 2014
Had another ACARS soundings showing a thinner warm layer aloft, but
still enough to melt the ice and then allow for some re-freezing, as
we have been getting a few more sleet reports. Observations deeper
into the cold over southern Indiana are showing all snow. Latest
water vapor loop shows the area of enhanced lift associated with the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet to our north. A potent
shortwave, now over Oklahoma, will merge with a longer wave trough
dropping down over the Central Plains to enhance precip further
overnight.
The warm nose may briefly re-exert it`s influence northward over the
next few hours before the cold air smashes through here late
tonight. The timing mentioned in our web briefings still looks
reasonable as well as the totals. Will add in better chances for
sleet, but overall this package is not a big change.
Issued at 620 PM EST Nov 16 2014
Had some good ACARS soundings in an hour or two ago, and basically
matched these up with the latest RUC temps aloft. Have used this
model for the next few hours to generate the transition zone for
rain to rain/snow mix to all snow. These changes did not change the
overall snow totals significantly, so no need to change the
advisory/warning area at this point. Will continue to monitor
multiple sources and adjust the forecast as needed through the
evening hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 340 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
...Accumulating Snows Likely Tonight into Monday...
Overview
--------
The short term period will feature a broad trough across much of the
CONUS. A strong PV anomaly is currently getting ready to enter the
southern Plains and will quickly slide east toward the mid
Mississipi Valley toward dawn. Ahead of this feature, surface
cyclogenesis is already occurring over the lower Mississippi. This
system will quickly lift NE and deepen as it slides by to our east
on Monday. Moisture is already spreading north into the region, and
will continue into tonight ahead of these slowly phasing systems.
This deep moisture will interact with increasingly colder
temperature profiles and produce a period of wintery weather across
the Ohio Valley.
Model Preference
----------------
There has been a wide model discrepancy with respect to thermal
profiles below 700 mb leading up to this event, overall leading to
low confidence. We did get a trend toward some better agreement with
the 12z runs, so decided to blend mainly between the 12z NAM/GFS
temperature profiles. Do think the outcome of this event ultimately
hinges more on the lower mid levels than nearer the surface, however
did want to mention that surface temperatures are expected to hover
around or just above freezing until the heavier snow falls toward
dawn.
Sensible Weather and Impacts
----------------------------
Current radar does show the two separate storm systems nicely with
light rain over southern KY and mainly light snow overspreading
central IL/IN. We`ll watch through the evening hours as deeper
moisture slowly invades the area, however expect only light
precipitation and no real impacts initially. Southern Indiana could
see light accumulations as early as around sunset. Precipitation will
likely mix at times even across our north as temp profiles fluctuate
under varying degrees of saturation. Really not expecting the main
show to get going until we approach Midnight as system becomes more
organized, column becomes more saturated, and surface temps wet bulb
down toward more wintery precip conducive numbers.
A frontogenetically forced band of snow will then ride SW to NE
across our Warning area, pivoting to a more SSW to NNE orientation
through the night as the right entrance region of an upper level jet
slides overhead. This pivoting should actually enhance the
frontogenesis as well as keep the warm nose near the Ohio River.
Thereafter, the approaching PV anomaly begins to rapidly push the
system east with cold air crashing in in the low to mid levels. The
surface low will strengthen as it slides just to our east, providing
more deep moisture to interact with the cold air.
Since the warm layer aloft is going to drive this event, will
characterize how the overnight progresses by describing its
evolution through several geographic areas.
Southern Indiana (Winter Storm Warning 3-5" of Snow)
----------------------------------------------------
This area is expected to stay below freezing through the thermal
column, so all snow is expected other than a brief mix at onset.
This is expected to yield 3-5 inches by Monday morning, with the
heaviest snow falling between Midnight and 7 AM EST. Impacts to
roads and travel are expected.
Right Along the Ohio River (Winter Weather Advisory 2-3" Snow)
--------------------------------------------------------------
This area is the northern portion of the battleground between the
warm nose aloft. Expect to see mainly snow, however a few brief
periods of wintery mix including some sleet should cut down on
totals a bit. Expect all snow around and after Midnight EST.
Just South of the Ohio River (Winter Weather Advisory 1-3" Snow and
a mix)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
This area will be more see more of the warm air aloft for a longer
time and should cut down on snow totals. Could also see more
bouts of sleet with no impact. The city of Louisville will be right
underneath this battleground, so bust potential is high in this
transition zone. Much will depend on how quick the changeover
occurs. Expect change over between 1 and 4 AM EST.
Bluegrass Region North of I-64 (Winter Weather Advisory 2-4" Snow)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly rain before 4 AM EST. An enhanced area of snow after 4 AM
EST, where deeper moisture mentioned above will be present as two
storm systems phase.
South Central Kentucky (Impact Based Winter Weather Advisory 1" or
less and a brief mix)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Transition time and the amount of deep moisture left are in question
in this area, as well as rainfall`s effect on ability to accumulate.
Nevertheless, a quick shot of snow around the morning commute, and
the first snow of the year is enough to warrant the advisory.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
Forecast thoughts in the long term period have not changed much for
this forecast issuance as most of the forecasting focus was on the
Winter Storm Warning/Advisories in the short term period. See the
following excerpts from the previous discussion with a few added
thoughts below.
Deep upper troffing digging from eastern Canada into the United
States, with occasional small reinforcing shots moving through the
flow, will keep us cold for much of the work week, with any
appreciable moderation in temperatures holding off until the weekend
and into next week. Most moisture associated with the upper trof
will stay bottled up to our north, so though it will be cold, it
will also be mostly on the drier side (not necessarily *completely*
dry), with some moisture return possible next weekend.
The models are a mess in the long term, especially Thursday through
Sunday. Models are having difficulty with various shortwaves diving
south across the Plains in an a broad digging upper level trough.
These shortwaves will eventually bring us precip during the latter
half of the week but when, how much, and what type all remain in
question.
The main story Tuesday through Wednesday will be the cold. Tuesday
night we will drop well into the teens. Depending on the location
and depth of any snowpack from tonight`s snowfall, a reading or two
in the single digits may not be out of the question in sheltered
areas from southeast Indiana into the northern Blue Grass. High
temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the lower and middle 20s,
which is about 30 degrees colder than normal!
Wednesday we may be able to moderate up to around 40 in southwest
low level flow between high pressure over Dixie and a cold front
crossing the Great Lakes, but that will be offset by winds gusting
to 25 mph and afternoon wind chills mostly in the 20s.
As mentioned earlier, Thursday through Sunday are tough to figure
out right now. Will lean toward the drier side of the forecast
envelope and keep PoPs small for now. Will bring MaxT`s well up into
the 40s by Saturday with the anticipated pattern change.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1150 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
Winter conditions are on their way for the sites tonight. Have had
some sleet mixed in with rain at SDF, and this threat will push
east. Cigs have dropped to LIFR or worse and we should stay that way
for most if not all the overnight period. Expect a transition over
to all snow, first between now and roughly 07Z at KSDF and later at
the other two sites. Vsby will be worse once it goes over to all
snow, but have LIFR conditions persisting through mid morning, when
snow will start to exit off to the east and cigs will rise slowly.
Cannot rule out additional snow showers through the afternoon and
evening, as soundings don`t show much moisture, but that moisture is
in the ice crystal growth zone and there is some instability as
well. Winds will pick up from the west through the day tomorrow as
the cold air behind this system rushes in.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR
KYZ023-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ to Noon EST /11
AM CST/ Monday FOR KYZ027-036-037-039>043-045>049-053>057-
061>065-070>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR
KYZ024>026-028>031-033>035-038.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1112 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 PM EST Nov 16 2014
Will be issuing an update to the Winter headline product soon, just
to freshen up the wording, not change any of the main points. Have
a pretty solid band of snow headed towards our northern forecast
area with more mixy precip still occurring on the south side of the
band. KOWB still is reporting rain even at 33 degrees, and KSDF has
been fluctuating between -RA, -RASN, and -RAPL, indicative of that
warm layer aloft, which should finally start pushing steadily south
a few hours after Midnight.
With the approach of the shortwave over Oklahoma still expecting an
increase in radar coverage overnight, which should hit most of the
advisory area. The southern edge will continue to run low on totals
given the warm initial ground cover as well as the antecedent rains.
Issued at 840 PM EST Nov 16 2014
Had another ACARS soundings showing a thinner warm layer aloft, but
still enough to melt the ice and then allow for some re-freezing, as
we have been getting a few more sleet reports. Observations deeper
into the cold over southern Indiana are showing all snow. Latest
water vapor loop shows the area of enhanced lift associated with the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet to our north. A potent
shortwave, now over Oklahoma, will merge with a longer wave trough
dropping down over the Central Plains to enhance precip further
overnight.
The warm nose may briefly re-exert it`s influence northward over the
next few hours before the cold air smashes through here late
tonight. The timing mentioned in our web briefings still looks
reasonable as well as the totals. Will add in better chances for
sleet, but overall this package is not a big change.
Issued at 620 PM EST Nov 16 2014
Had some good ACARS soundings in an hour or two ago, and basically
matched these up with the latest RUC temps aloft. Have used this
model for the next few hours to generate the transition zone for
rain to rain/snow mix to all snow. These changes did not change the
overall snow totals significantly, so no need to change the
advisory/warning area at this point. Will continue to monitor
multiple sources and adjust the forecast as needed through the
evening hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 340 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
...Accumulating Snows Likely Tonight into Monday...
Overview
--------
The short term period will feature a broad trough across much of the
CONUS. A strong PV anomaly is currently getting ready to enter the
southern Plains and will quickly slide east toward the mid
Mississipi Valley toward dawn. Ahead of this feature, surface
cyclogenesis is already occurring over the lower Mississippi. This
system will quickly lift NE and deepen as it slides by to our east
on Monday. Moisture is already spreading north into the region, and
will continue into tonight ahead of these slowly phasing systems.
This deep moisture will interact with increasingly colder
temperature profiles and produce a period of wintery weather across
the Ohio Valley.
Model Preference
----------------
There has been a wide model discrepancy with respect to thermal
profiles below 700 mb leading up to this event, overall leading to
low confidence. We did get a trend toward some better agreement with
the 12z runs, so decided to blend mainly between the 12z NAM/GFS
temperature profiles. Do think the outcome of this event ultimately
hinges more on the lower mid levels than nearer the surface, however
did want to mention that surface temperatures are expected to hover
around or just above freezing until the heavier snow falls toward
dawn.
Sensible Weather and Impacts
----------------------------
Current radar does show the two separate storm systems nicely with
light rain over southern KY and mainly light snow overspreading
central IL/IN. We`ll watch through the evening hours as deeper
moisture slowly invades the area, however expect only light
precipitation and no real impacts initially. Southern Indiana could
see light accumulations as early as around sunset. Precipitation will
likely mix at times even across our north as temp profiles fluctuate
under varying degrees of saturation. Really not expecting the main
show to get going until we approach Midnight as system becomes more
organized, column becomes more saturated, and surface temps wet bulb
down toward more wintery precip conducive numbers.
A frontogenetically forced band of snow will then ride SW to NE
across our Warning area, pivoting to a more SSW to NNE orientation
through the night as the right entrance region of an upper level jet
slides overhead. This pivoting should actually enhance the
frontogenesis as well as keep the warm nose near the Ohio River.
Thereafter, the approaching PV anomaly begins to rapidly push the
system east with cold air crashing in in the low to mid levels. The
surface low will strengthen as it slides just to our east, providing
more deep moisture to interact with the cold air.
Since the warm layer aloft is going to drive this event, will
characterize how the overnight progresses by describing its
evolution through several geographic areas.
Southern Indiana (Winter Storm Warning 3-5" of Snow)
----------------------------------------------------
This area is expected to stay below freezing through the thermal
column, so all snow is expected other than a brief mix at onset.
This is expected to yield 3-5 inches by Monday morning, with the
heaviest snow falling between Midnight and 7 AM EST. Impacts to
roads and travel are expected.
Right Along the Ohio River (Winter Weather Advisory 2-3" Snow)
--------------------------------------------------------------
This area is the northern portion of the battleground between the
warm nose aloft. Expect to see mainly snow, however a few brief
periods of wintery mix including some sleet should cut down on
totals a bit. Expect all snow around and after Midnight EST.
Just South of the Ohio River (Winter Weather Advisory 1-3" Snow and
a mix)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
This area will be more see more of the warm air aloft for a longer
time and should cut down on snow totals. Could also see more
bouts of sleet with no impact. The city of Louisville will be right
underneath this battleground, so bust potential is high in this
transition zone. Much will depend on how quick the changeover
occurs. Expect change over between 1 and 4 AM EST.
Bluegrass Region North of I-64 (Winter Weather Advisory 2-4" Snow)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly rain before 4 AM EST. An enhanced area of snow after 4 AM
EST, where deeper moisture mentioned above will be present as two
storm systems phase.
South Central Kentucky (Impact Based Winter Weather Advisory 1" or
less and a brief mix)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Transition time and the amount of deep moisture left are in question
in this area, as well as rainfall`s effect on ability to accumulate.
Nevertheless, a quick shot of snow around the morning commute, and
the first snow of the year is enough to warrant the advisory.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
Forecast thoughts in the long term period have not changed much for
this forecast issuance as most of the forecasting focus was on the
Winter Storm Warning/Advisories in the short term period. See the
following excerpts from the previous discussion with a few added
thoughts below.
Deep upper troffing digging from eastern Canada into the United
States, with occasional small reinforcing shots moving through the
flow, will keep us cold for much of the work week, with any
appreciable moderation in temperatures holding off until the weekend
and into next week. Most moisture associated with the upper trof
will stay bottled up to our north, so though it will be cold, it
will also be mostly on the drier side (not necessarily *completely*
dry), with some moisture return possible next weekend.
The models are a mess in the long term, especially Thursday through
Sunday. Models are having difficulty with various shortwaves diving
south across the Plains in an a broad digging upper level trough.
These shortwaves will eventually bring us precip during the latter
half of the week but when, how much, and what type all remain in
question.
The main story Tuesday through Wednesday will be the cold. Tuesday
night we will drop well into the teens. Depending on the location
and depth of any snowpack from tonight`s snowfall, a reading or two
in the single digits may not be out of the question in sheltered
areas from southeast Indiana into the northern Blue Grass. High
temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the lower and middle 20s,
which is about 30 degrees colder than normal!
Wednesday we may be able to moderate up to around 40 in southwest
low level flow between high pressure over Dixie and a cold front
crossing the Great Lakes, but that will be offset by winds gusting
to 25 mph and afternoon wind chills mostly in the 20s.
As mentioned earlier, Thursday through Sunday are tough to figure
out right now. Will lean toward the drier side of the forecast
envelope and keep PoPs small for now. Will bring MaxT`s well up into
the 40s by Saturday with the anticipated pattern change.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014
Winter conditions are on their way for the sites tonight. Cigs will
drop to LIFR or worse for most if not all the overnight period. Rain
ongoing now will transition over to snow, first between 04 and 07Z
at KSDF and later at the other two sites. Vsby will be worse once it
goes over to all snow, but have LIFR conditions persiste through mid
morning, when snow will start to exit off to the east and cigs will
rise slowly. Cannot rule out additional snow showers through the
afternoon and evening, as soundings don`t show much moisture, but
that moisture is in the ice crystal growth zone and there is some
instability as well. Winds will pick up from the west and northwest
through the day tomorrow as the cold air behind this system rushes
in.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR
KYZ023-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ to Noon EST /11
AM CST/ Monday FOR KYZ027-036-037-039>043-045>049-053>057-
061>065-070>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR
KYZ024>026-028>031-033>035-038.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1137 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.AVIATION...
SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM RAPIDES SOUTH TO CAMERON PARISH THEN OUT
INTO THE GULF. CLOUDS EXTEND BACK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AS NW WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO EXIT DRG THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE MID DECK HANGS ON THRU SUNRISE BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BREAK. LFT AND ARA WILL SEE MORE SHWRS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THEY EXIT INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
UPDATE...ZONES AND GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT WIND ADVISORY.
BEAUMONT IS JUST NOW APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS FROM BEAUMONT TO DERIDDER AND ALEXANDRIA.
THIS BAND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH
APPEAR POSSIBLE.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. BLENDED IN LATEST RUC TEMP DATA AND DEW POINT TRENDS
AS WELL AS ACCOUNTING FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ACADIANA TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. STILL QUITE A
DROP EXPECTED BUT NOW EXPECTING MID 40S FOR SW LA AND UPPER 40S
FOR S CEN LA BY SUNRISE DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASING WINDS. THESE
CHANGES WILL BE REFLECTED IN ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE TOR WATCH A COUPLE OF
HOURS EARLY. WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TRIMMING BACK HOWEVER THE WINDS
AND LIFT BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKEN AROUND THE FRONTAL BAND. ZONE
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
AVIATION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE RUMBLING THRU SOUTH CENTRAL LA AND WILL
BE AN OPERATIONAL ISSUE FOR ARA AND LFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE LOW CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAINS AND FOG WILL KEEP
VSBY DOWN AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS A SECOND FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BUSY WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
VARYING FROM SPRING TO WINTER WITH SOME 25F DEGREE AIR TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
SOUTHEAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL WAVE LOCATED AS OF 16/21Z BETWEEN
JENNINGS AND LAFAYETTE. WARM SECTOR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN
TO INTO THE GULF WATERS AROUND THE CAMERON/VERMILION PARISH
BORDER. SOME STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME ROTATING CELLS BECOMING SURFACE BASED IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 10 PM...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE THEN...AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
DECREASES THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AS THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DECREASE IN
WINDS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH A
FREEZE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS GETTING DOWN CLOSE TO I-10.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF COMMENCES. ENOUGH
MOISTURE BUILD-UP BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS.
RUA
MARINE...
A SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TONIGHT.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ABOUT SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAMERON DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED WATER SPOUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT...WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AIR FROM THE POLAR
REGION WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL PROVIDE TURBULENT AIR MIXING...ALLOWING SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OVERTAKE
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...BEYOND 20 NM. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO PUSH
WATER OUT OF THE CHANNELS AND BAYS AND AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THEREFORE...A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO WANE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 44 50 27 49 32 / 80 10 0 0 0
KBPT 41 51 29 50 37 / 70 10 0 0 0
KAEX 38 47 24 46 29 / 80 10 0 0 0
KLFT 48 49 27 47 31 / 90 10 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARY...
VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
OUT 20 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...ZONES AND GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT WIND ADVISORY.
BEAUMONT IS JUST NOW APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS FROM BEAUMONT TO DERIDDER AND ALEXANDRIA.
THIS BAND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH
APPEAR POSSIBLE.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. BLENDED IN LATEST RUC TEMP DATA AND DEW POINT TRENDS
AS WELL AS ACCOUNTING FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ACADIANA TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. STILL QUITE A
DROP EXPECTED BUT NOW EXPECTING MID 40S FOR SW LA AND UPPER 40S
FOR S CEN LA BY SUNRISE DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASING WINDS. THESE
CHANGES WILL BE REFLECTED IN ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE OUT SHORLTY.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE TOR WATCH A COUPLE OF
HOURS EARLY. WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TRIMMING BACK HOWEVER THE WINDS
AND LIFT BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKEND AROUND THE FRONTAL BAND. ZONE
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
AVIATION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE RUMBLING THRU SOUTH CENTRAL LA AND WILL
BE AN OPERATIONAL ISSUE FOR ARA AND LFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE LOW CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAINS AND FOG WILL KEEP
VSBY DOWN AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS A SECOND FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BUSY WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
VARYING FROM SPRING TO WINTER WITH SOME 25F DEGREE AIR TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
SOUTHEAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL WAVE LOCATED AS OF 16/21Z BETWEEN
JENNINGS AND LAFAYETTE. WARM SECTOR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN
TO INTO THE GULF WATERS AROUND THE CAMERON/VERMILION PARISH
BORDER. SOME STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME ROTATING CELLS BECOMING SURFACE BASED IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 10 PM...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE THEN...AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
DECREASES THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AS THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DECREASE IN
WINDS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH A
FREEZE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS GETTING DOWN CLOSE TO I-10.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF COMMENCES. ENOUGH
MOISTURE BUILD-UP BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS.
RUA
MARINE...
A SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TONIGHT.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ABOUT SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAMERON DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED WATER SPOUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT...WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AIR FROM THE POLAR
REGION WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL PROVIDE TURBULENT AIR MIXING...ALLOWING SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OVERTAKE
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...BEYOND 20 NM. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO PUSH
WATER OUT OF THE CHANNELS AND BAYS AND AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THEREFORE...A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO WANE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 44 50 27 49 32 / 80 10 0 0 0
KBPT 41 51 29 50 37 / 70 10 0 0 0
KAEX 38 47 24 46 29 / 80 10 0 0 0
KLFT 48 49 27 47 31 / 90 10 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARY...
VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
OUT 20 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
640 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.
SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.
TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.
ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED ONCE AGAIN
IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 24 HOUR /12IN OR
MORE/ WARNING CRITERIA IF BANDED PRECIP STAYS OVER E ALGER AND N
PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY. WILL NOT HOIST ANY NEW HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING ADVISORIES OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LES GOING...AS NOTED ABOVE...BEHIND THE
EXITING SFC LOW OVER N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS THROUGH
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH
EXITS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
AT THAT POINT WE WILL BRIEFLY SAY GOODBYE TO OUR COLD WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG WAA WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W /FROM A SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER ONE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE S PLAINS/. LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
30S SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL LOW OVER MANITOBA
WILL SKIRT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC
RIDGE ERODING ACROSS UPPER MI.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE /OR MORE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN IF THE HIGHER QPF LIKE THAT FROM THE 18/12Z
ECMWF PAN OUT. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST...SO WILL ONLY ADD THE MENTION
FOR NOW AND WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PRECIP /FREEZING DRIZZLE/.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF
THE S STREAM LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ND/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THE S LOW TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE MI/ILLINOIS BY 00Z
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS E UPPER MI/W LAKE HURON BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. HOW MUCH OF THAT FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN/OVER
OUR SNOW PACK IS IN QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. LES TO END AT KCMX WITH THIS WIND SHIFT AS WEAK BAND
MOVES OFF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA. WHILE KSAW HAS TEMPORARILY BROKEN OUT IN TO VFR CONDITIONS...
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE BACK IN BY MIDNIGHT THERE. KIWD WILL ALSO SEE
A FEW PERIODS OF VFR...BUT CIGS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT THERE. SNOW RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VSBYS FALLING LATE IN THE FORECAST AS LES DEVELOPS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
CONTINENT AND A SHARP...DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE CNTRL
PART. WITH THE RIDGE...THE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY PEAKS AT 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER FAR NW
CANADA WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM TROF IS DEEPENING TOWARD 3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW AVG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EVENING.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SFC
TROF EXTENDING SW INTO WRN UPPER MI. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL/CWPL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING UP PAST 500MB WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -19/-20C RESPECTIVELY...OBVIOUSLY A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HVY
SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LES TRENDS/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
HEADLINES.
MDT/HVY SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE AND ESSENTIALLY AN ABSENT INVERSION ALLOW FOR DEEP LAKE
EFFECT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DGZ IS ONLY AROUND 2KFT THICK...FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IT IDEALLY PLACED WITHIN MAX UPWARD MOTION. HIGHER
RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT IN AN AREA FROM KIWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND ALSO
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. THUS...
EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE W GETS A BETTER
BOOST FROM TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...A NICE LAKE NIPIGON CONNECTION AND
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE OFF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN BOTH AREAS MAY SEE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 20 INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW
DIMINISHES/ENDS. OTHERWISE...12-18 INCHES OF SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
THE RULE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY
EXTEND INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. IF DOMINANT BAND SETS UP AND
DOESN`T MOVE MUCH FOR SEVERAL HRS...AMOUNTS MAY SNEAK INTO WARNING
CRITERIA THERE. OVER NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH SUB WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN LACK OF
ENHANCING FACTORS THAT ARE PRESENT IN THE OTHER AFORMENTIONED
AREAS. BEST POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE SOUTH OF
PAINESDALE AND PERHAPS NRN KEWEENAW COUNTY AS LAKE NIPIGON
CONNECTION MAY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...SO THAT WILL BE A FACTOR
SUPPORTING MAINTAINING WARNING HEADLINES FOR NOW. CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE
COUNTY. HAVE LOWERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BRUSHING THE SHORELINE AREAS.
IN PARTICULAR...THE AREA TOWARD SHOT POINT MAY BE AFFECTED BY HVY
SNOW AT TIMES. WRN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY SEE FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NW.
FOR NOW...MAINTAINED MARQUETTE COUNTY ADVY...BUT EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP ADVY IF IT DOES APPEAR HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN E.
ON TUE...DEEP MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS E...LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC AND OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS
WILL SPELL DIMINISHING LES FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY. BACKING WINDS
WILL PUSH LINGERING -SHSN N OF KIWD DURING THE AFTN AND SHIFT THE
BACK EDGE OF LES EASTWARD WITH TIME IN CNTRL UPPER MI. THOSE BACKING
WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A NARROW ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING
N OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATER IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN A NARROW
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING N TOWARD HOUGHTON IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM FAR E ONTARIO
TO E QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
NEAR SFC WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE OUT OF THE W AND SW
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING LES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS DRY WX WILL BE TEMPORARILY...AS THE NEXT SFC TROUGH AND 500MB
SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE SET UP ACROSS MN ALREADY AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE ISN/T A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE
SFC THROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVING IN LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY /AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE NEARLY 40KTS
OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM/. WINDS ARE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 30KTS ABOVE
900MB. A 500MB LOW ROTATING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AN AVERAGE -14C WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND -19C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER ALOFT THAN THE ECMWF VALUES LISTED ABOVE. THIS SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS. CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
A CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT COOL NW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 0F. THE DEEPENING/EXITING SFC LOW OVER S
QUEBEC THURSDAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...AS LARGE 500MB TROUGH FINALLY EXITS INTO E
CANADA. LOOK FOR LES TO SLOWLY END ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME A BIT
MORE VARIANT...SHIFTING OUT OF THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM...WITH STRONG WAA
ON 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS FCST OFF BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER...WE MAY GET A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE
WHITE STUFF. MAY HAVE WAA SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS NW MN. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ACROSS LAKE MI.
WILL NOT GET TOO INTO THE DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN
TO NOTE THAT MUCH WARMER AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS
COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AS S-SSE WINDS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF
TRACKS A VERY STRONG/WRAPPED UP 927MB SFC LOW ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
FEATURE...ITS/S TRACK IS ACROSS LOWER MI STARTING OFF AT 989MB AND
WEAKENING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO
INCREASE OUR CURRENT WIND FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY NW
WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR
BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN
AND CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN -SHSN LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH TRAILING SFC TROF SWEEPING SE. BEHIND THE TROF...EXPECT NW
GALES OF 35-40KT TO SRPEAD FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 45KT OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. GALES WILL END OVER THE W OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
E LATE TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COLD AIR/STRONG WINDS/HIGH WAVES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
15-25KT RANGE TUE NIGHT AS WINDS BACK SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF.
THAT TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE WED AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW WINDS TO AT LEAST 30KT. GALES MAY OCCUR OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL GALES ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEPENING
UPR TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER ONTARIO JUST
NW OF LK SUP CAUSING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M BTWN 16/12Z AND
17/00Z AT INL AND DRAWING H5 TEMPS CLOSE TO -40C S UNDER THE AXIS OF
LOWEST HGTS. BAND OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL
MSTR IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO IS CROSSING
UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB
RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH IS 45 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS GREATLY LIMITING THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SN OVER THE FAR E NEAR NEWBERRY WITH A SW WIND OFF NRN LK
MI...BUT THE FLOW HAS NOT BACKED SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE THE HEAVIER
SN SHOWERS IN MACKINAC COUNTY TO IMPACT LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.
LOOKING TO THE W...THE 00Z H85/7 TEMPS WERE -17C/-27C AT INL /VS
-14C AND -16C AT GRB/. THE 00Z INL IS QUITE MOIST ALMOST UP TO H5
WITHIN A DEEP CYC FLOW. THERE IS A SHARP SFC WSHFT FM W TO NW ALONG
A SFC LO PRES TROF RUNNING THRU NRN MN INTO ADJACENT ONTARIO...WITH
SFC REPORTS SHOWING SOME MODERATE SN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS
BNDRY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON LES AMOUNTS/GOING HEADLINES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD/MOIST AIRMASS. MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO
HEADLINES ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
TODAY...AS CUTOFF H5 LO DEEPENS FURTHER AND SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E
ACROSS UPR MI...SHARP CYC LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY ENVELOP THE
CWA W-E WITH A WSHFT FM WSW EARLY THIS MRNG TO NW BY LATE IN THE DAY
EXCEPT OVER THE SE CWA. THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ARRIVE OVER THE W
ARND 12Z AND RESULT IN INCRSG SN RATES DESPITE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR LKS EARLY THIS
MRNG. THE HIER RES MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO THE AREA ARND
ONTONAGON COUNTY AS THE FOCUS FOR THE SHARPEST CNVGC. GOING START
TIME OF 12Z FOR THE WARNINGS OVER THE W APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
SINCE THE RATHER LO UVV MAX IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP LYR FORCING WL BE
CENTERED IN THE DGZ...EXPECT GOOD SN/WATER RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1
DESPITE A DGZ DEPTH OF ONLY ABOUT 3K FT AND INCRSG WINDS THAT WOULD
TEND TO FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES. WITH SOME INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UVV OVER THE W HALF LATER IN THE DAY UNDER THE DEEPENING UPR
TROF AXIS...FCST SDNGS ALSO INDICATE INCRSG DEEP MSTR THRU THE DAY
PER THE 00Z INL RAOB WITH EQUILIBRIUM LVLS APRCHG 10K FT OVER THE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS H85/7 TEMPS DIP TO -16C TO -17C/-27C. INCRSG NW
WINDS/DESTABILIZATION WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS AND SOME BLSN AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE E...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BE OUT OF THE W
MOST OF THE DAY...SO THE SN SHOWERS THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE LK SHORE UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z...WHEN THE FASTER HI RES CNDN
MODEL SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF SHARPER CYC FLOW/ WSHFT TO THE NW. FCST
LES WARNINGS FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES BEGINS AT 21Z...SO
WL NOT CHANGE THIS START TIME. THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SN SHOWERS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
TNGT...UPR TROF/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND MSTR/SFC LO PRES
TROF AND CYC WSHFT TO THE NW ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY E. THESE
TRENDS WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS/SN RATES IN THE NW SN BELTS MAINLY E
OF MARQUETTE. THE 00Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE HI RES CNDN MODEL HINT
LK NIPIGON MOISTENING WL GREATLY ENHANCE SN RATES OVER ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO THE GOING WRNGS APPEAR ON TRACK. AS WL BE
THE CASE TODAY OVER THE W...HI EQUILIBRIUM LVL AND FAVORABLE UVV MAX
WITHIN THE DGZ WL BE ENHANCING FACTORS FOR SN RATES IN THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DYANAMIC SUPPORT/VERY DEEP MSTR MAY
SLOW DOWN THE HEAVY SN RATES OVER THE W BY THE OVERNGT HRS...
LINGERING CYC NW BACKING TOWARD THE WNW OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 12Z WL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAVORED SN
BELTS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED NW FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY...WL CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR THIS AREA GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR HIER WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE AND HEAVIER SN IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIGHTEST AND LEAST
WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM FAR E ONTARIO
TO E QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
NEAR SFC WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE OUT OF THE W AND SW
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING LES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS DRY WX WILL BE TEMPORARILY...AS THE NEXT SFC TROUGH AND 500MB
SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE SET UP ACROSS MN ALREADY AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE ISN/T A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE
SFC THROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVING IN LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY /AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE NEARLY 40KTS
OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM/. WINDS ARE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 30KTS ABOVE
900MB. A 500MB LOW ROTATING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AN AVERAGE -14C WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND -19C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER ALOFT THAN THE ECMWF VALUES LISTED ABOVE. THIS SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS. CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
A CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT COOL NW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 0F. THE DEEPENING/EXITING SFC LOW OVER S
QUEBEC THURSDAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...AS LARGE 500MB TROUGH FINALLY EXITS INTO E
CANADA. LOOK FOR LES TO SLOWLY END ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME A BIT
MORE VARIANT...SHIFTING OUT OF THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM...WITH STRONG WAA
ON 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS FCST OFF BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER...WE MAY GET A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE
WHITE STUFF. MAY HAVE WAA SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS NW MN. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ACROSS LAKE MI.
WILL NOT GET TOO INTO THE DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN
TO NOTE THAT MUCH WARMER AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS
COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AS S-SSE WINDS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF
TRACKS A VERY STRONG/WRAPPED UP 927MB SFC LOW ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
FEATURE...ITS/S TRACK IS ACROSS LOWER MI STARTING OFF AT 989MB AND
WEAKENING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO
INCREASE OUR CURRENT WIND FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY NW
WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR
BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN
AND CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN -SHSN LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...SWEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...LOOK FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXPANDING TO THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND WILL CONTINUE. A TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BRIEFLY BEING REPLACED BY A RIDGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA ON
TUESDAY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY...EXTENDING A
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND DIMINISHING WINDS
BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
135 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY...WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME
PLACES TODAY...BUT HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SOME OF THE CLASSIC SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
THINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE FORECAST WITH THE BANDS
REALIGNING IN SOME KIND OF W OR WNW BAND BASED ON THE KAPX RADAR
AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGE. IN E UPPER A DOMINATE W BAND HAS FORMED
IS JUST OFF THE SHORE AT WHITEFISH POINT. SO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO WEATHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
THE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY FROM N LAKE MICHIGAN TO NW LOWER. THIS
HAS LEAD TO THE SW SNOW BANDS MERGING AND FLARING UP AS THEY MOVE
INLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW AS THE BANDS
TRANSIT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL EXPECT THAT
THE BANDS WILL LOSE THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE SNOW BANDS ARE ALREADY REFORMING WITH THE
WEST WIND OVER THE N LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BE EXPECTING THAT THE
SNOW BANDS WILL REESTABLISH QUICKLY, BUT THE WHETHER THEY WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY OR BE TRANSIENT OVER THE AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN
AS THE MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 30
DEGREES IN THE 1000-850 MB WIND DIRECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE
GOING AFTERNOON FORECAST UNTIL THE BANDS SHOW THEIR INTENTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: KINDA STATING THE OBVIOUS...BUT
MID-WINTER LIKE PATTERN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
REASON FOR SUCH IS ONE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME...CONSISTING OF FULL LENGTH WESTERN NOAM RIDGING AND JUST AS
IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES. MOST IMPRESSIVE COLD SURGE YET TIED TO WAVE OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN DIVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND INTO MINNESOTA (-20C H8
TEMPERATURES PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS!). SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING
WELL AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ALREADY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MICHIGAN AT
THIS EARLY HOUR. AREA OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE (A PRETTY RARE FEAT
TO HAVE SUCH COLD PRE-FRONTAL AIR DURING MID NOVEMBER). MAIN SHOW
TONIGHT HAS BEEN DIRECTED INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN..
WHERE NO DOUBT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER MORE NUISANCE TYPE SNOWS IMPACTING NORTHER
LOWER...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET COUNTY. SIMPLY NO END IN
SIGHT...WITH CURRENT UPSTREAM WAVE SET TO AMPLIFY OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORCING A SHIFTING OF THE WINDS TO MORE W/NW AND
PUTTING THE MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MULTIPLE! INITIAL FOCUS ON
ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT FOCUS ON MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOW EVENT...INCLUDING
AMOUNTS AND HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.
DETAILS: NOT PRETTY! FIRST OFF...ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE SNOWS SHOULD
STEADILY DECLINE IN INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER 09Z AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AND BRIEF CORRIDOR OF UPSTREAM DRIER AIR OVERSPEADS THE
LAKES. CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THROUGH 15Z...WHICH OFFERS SOME
FLEXIBILITY IF BANDS SHOULD PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (NEVER
SEEN THAN BEFORE :)). NO OFFICIAL REPORTS JUST YET...BUT BASED OFF
MACKINAC BRIDGE WEB CAMS AND SOME INFORMATION GLEANED FROM CALLING
ST. IGNACE...GOTTA FEELING WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP IN THE STRAITS AREA BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME LIGHTER SNOWS EXPECTED AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY MID-MORNING.
WITH PART ONE DONE...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG...SLOWLY CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MAIN CORE OF
ATTENDANT CAA ACTUALLY PASSING US BY TO THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY
RAMPS UP IMPRESSIVELY LATE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR
EXTREME DELTA T/S COLLOCATED WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SUPPORT AND
ESSENTIALLY ALL LOSS OF AN INVERSION. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IMPRESSIVE...
SUGGESTING ENHANCED CONVERGENCE TARGETING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED IN RECENT GUIDANCE
RUNS...WELL SUPPORTED BY WHAT SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING LAKE DRIVEN
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...
EXPECT SNOWS TO GET GOING IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WITH INITIAL
FOCUS IN FAVORED WEST FLOW AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE M-32 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG OMEGA CENTERED RIGHT
IN PRIME DGZ RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SOME FRAGMENTATION
OF FLAKES FROM VERY GUSTY WINDS (MORE ON THE WINDS TO
FOLLOW)...EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO PUSH 20 TO 1...PERHAPS
EVEN HIGHER IF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDER BANDS HELP
SLACKING THE WIND FIELDS. SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY THING FROM PREVENTING SNOW AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF
HAND. STILL...COULD EASILY SEE PARTS OF
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO/EMMET/CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES EXCEEDING 8 INCHES
BY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST DOWNWIND OF LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY. ANY SLOWER DRIFT OF BANDS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHER SOUTH...COMPLETE LACK
OF A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION REALLY SHORTENS THE EFFECTIVE FETCH
LENGTH. SO...DESPITE EXCELLENT INSTABILITY...JUST NOT SEEING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-
72 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE FOR
SOME NASTY CONDITIONS...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES.
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR: INITIAL FOCUS THIS EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST
OF WHITEFISH POINT...REALLY TARGETING AREAS OVER NEAR MUNISING AND
SENEY. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE W/NW LATE...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOW BANDS INTO NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY. LATER START AND SIGNALS
FOR BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST SUGGESTS
LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN THOSE TO THE SOUTH...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
EXPECTED BY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH BANDS FURTHER INLAND
THAN WHAT IS NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN BRINGING PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MACKINAC COUNTY SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
MORE SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL THE ABOVE AREAS TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL
MORE INCHES EXPECTED (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW).
HEADLINES: FOR NORTHERN LOWER...GIVEN GUSTY WINDS AND WHAT COULD BE
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW EVEN OUTSIDE THE BETTER SNOW BANDS...HAVE
DECIDED TO FORGO THE SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR MORE GENERIC
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL AREA MENTIONED EARLIER
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...STARTING AT 00Z THIS
EVENING RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
SHOULD DO FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-72...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
LOWER AS STRONG WINDS HELP PUSH WEAKENING BANDS FAR INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF SNOW AND COLD DURING THE
WORK WEEK. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN WNW/NW FLOW TUESDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WED NIGHT TO THU NIGHT.
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL EJECT FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON INTO EASTERN
QUEBEC. ONE TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL DIG TOWARD EASTERN SUPERIOR. A
980MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING IN CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND WILL
ADVANCE NE. SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THIS RELAXES AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT...BUT LAKE-
INDUCED TROFFING REMAINS EVIDENT THRU THE DAY.
1000-850MB WINDS REMAIN STEADY-STATE IN THE MORNING...WNW INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND NW INTO EASTERN UPPER. WINDS WILL BACK SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BY EARLY EVENING WE WILL SEE A W FETCH INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND WNW INTO EASTERN UPPER. PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE...HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (TO NEARLY 500MB)...AND DELTA T/S
NEAR 20C SHOULD ENSURE RAMPAGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE INVERSION LOWERS TOWARD 700MB WITH
DRYING ALOFT. THAT WILL REDUCE SNOW INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...BUT BY AND
LARGE PARAMETERS AND STILL VERY FAVORABLE.
AS IS THE CASE FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE BACKED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN NORTHERN LOWER...THIS REQUIRES
ADJUSTING THE MAX SNOW TOTALS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO ARE THE MAIN ONES UNDER THE GUN...BUT THE
FETCH NOW SUPPORTS MORE SNOW IN SOUTHERN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN THAN IT
DOES IN NORTHERN KALKASKA/CRAWFORD. 5-9 INCHES STILL LIKES A GOOD
FORECAST FOR THE DAY IN THE HARDEST-HIT LOCALES...CENTERED ON
ELMIRA. 1-4 INCHES WORKS ELSEWHERE IN NW LOWER...WHERE THE FETCH IS
MUCH SHORTER AND HAS NO CONNECTION TO SUPERIOR.
IN EASTERN UPPER...THE BACKED FLOW OPENS UP MORE OF CHIPPEWA...BUT
SHOULD STILL KEEP THE STRONGEST BANDS WEST OF THE SAULT. BUT THINGS
ARE LOOKING CONSIDERABLY MORE FAVORABLE UP THERE...AND WILL INCREASE
WESTERN CHIP AND FAR NW MACK INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTH...WHERE MARINE MODIFICATION WILL BE SMALLER DUE TO THE
SHORTER FETCH...SOME PLACES (LIKE CAD) WILL LIKELY NOT ESCAPE THE
TEENS. (HARD TO BELIEVE IT/S ONLY MID-NOVEMBER.)
TUE NIGHT/WED...NOT MUCH REST FOR THE SNOW-WEARY. CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON WED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL ADVANCE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NORTHERN LOWER MI ON WED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW TUE NIGHT...WITH MOISTENING
OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY 1-3 INCH ACCUMS OVER THE
TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER TUE EVENING. SYNOPTIC -SN MIGHT SNEAK INTO SW
SECTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE THAT WILL WAIT UNTIL
WED. BY THEN...A SOUTH 1000-850MB FETCH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE-
INDUCED NONSENSE AT BAY...OTHER THAN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF UPPER
MI (AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH). THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR PROBLEM...1-2
INCHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32. MIN TEMPS TEENS TO PERHAPS HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS (YIKES). MAX TEMPS 20S.
REST OF THE FORECAST...POST-CLIPPER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR WED
NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...AIDED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NW. THE SET-UP FOR HEAVY SNOW LOOKS BETTER IN EASTERN
UPPER IN THIS EVENT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER THERE VS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SOUTHER/CENTRAL LAKES.
REGARDLESS...LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN
BOTH PENINSULAS.
THOUGH THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST TO BREAK PATTERNS DOWN...ALL
MODELS HAVE THE CURRENT ONE FALL APART AFTER THIS LAST CLIPPER.
500MB FLOW BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE ZONAL...AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR
WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL AMPLIFY WARM ADVECTION...AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES BY SUNDAY. THIS ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WINDS ARE NOW MORE WEST AND WITH IT, THE SNOW BANDS ARE ALIGNING
THEMSELVES WITH THE WIND SO THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE ENDING OF THE
HEAVY SNOW AT PLN AND FINDING THE RIGHT MIX OF PREVAILING AND
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TVC AND MBL. APN LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUES. WINDS LOOK TO TURN MORE
BACK FROM NNW TO NW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SO THAT SNOW BANDS WILL
SHIFT THROUGH APN DURING THE MORNING. TO SUMMARIZE, PLN, TVC, AND
MBL, WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE,
WITH OCCASIONAL VFR OR IFR DEPENDING ON BAND MOVEMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION. APN WILL MAINLY BE VFR, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
VSBYS AS SNOW BANDS MOVE OVER THE TAF SITE, BUT THAT WILL MAINLY
BE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
STRONG SURGE OF CAA AND INCREASINGLY SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS BY LATER TODAY RIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE GALE FORCE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME GALE GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LOWER COASTLINE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ018-020-023-025>028-031>033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ016-017-019-021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
SYNOPSIS...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JAZ
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1217 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEPENING
UPR TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER ONTARIO JUST
NW OF LK SUP CAUSING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M BTWN 16/12Z AND
17/00Z AT INL AND DRAWING H5 TEMPS CLOSE TO -40C S UNDER THE AXIS OF
LOWEST HGTS. BAND OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL
MSTR IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO IS CROSSING
UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB
RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH IS 45 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS GREATLY LIMITING THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SN OVER THE FAR E NEAR NEWBERRY WITH A SW WIND OFF NRN LK
MI...BUT THE FLOW HAS NOT BACKED SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE THE HEAVIER
SN SHOWERS IN MACKINAC COUNTY TO IMPACT LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.
LOOKING TO THE W...THE 00Z H85/7 TEMPS WERE -17C/-27C AT INL /VS
-14C AND -16C AT GRB/. THE 00Z INL IS QUITE MOIST ALMOST UP TO H5
WITHIN A DEEP CYC FLOW. THERE IS A SHARP SFC WSHFT FM W TO NW ALONG
A SFC LO PRES TROF RUNNING THRU NRN MN INTO ADJACENT ONTARIO...WITH
SFC REPORTS SHOWING SOME MODERATE SN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS
BNDRY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON LES AMOUNTS/GOING HEADLINES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD/MOIST AIRMASS. MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO
HEADLINES ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
TODAY...AS CUTOFF H5 LO DEEPENS FURTHER AND SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E
ACROSS UPR MI...SHARP CYC LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY ENVELOP THE
CWA W-E WITH A WSHFT FM WSW EARLY THIS MRNG TO NW BY LATE IN THE DAY
EXCEPT OVER THE SE CWA. THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ARRIVE OVER THE W
ARND 12Z AND RESULT IN INCRSG SN RATES DESPITE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR LKS EARLY THIS
MRNG. THE HIER RES MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO THE AREA ARND
ONTONAGON COUNTY AS THE FOCUS FOR THE SHARPEST CNVGC. GOING START
TIME OF 12Z FOR THE WARNINGS OVER THE W APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
SINCE THE RATHER LO UVV MAX IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP LYR FORCING WL BE
CENTERED IN THE DGZ...EXPECT GOOD SN/WATER RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1
DESPITE A DGZ DEPTH OF ONLY ABOUT 3K FT AND INCRSG WINDS THAT WOULD
TEND TO FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES. WITH SOME INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UVV OVER THE W HALF LATER IN THE DAY UNDER THE DEEPENING UPR
TROF AXIS...FCST SDNGS ALSO INDICATE INCRSG DEEP MSTR THRU THE DAY
PER THE 00Z INL RAOB WITH EQUILIBRIUM LVLS APRCHG 10K FT OVER THE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS H85/7 TEMPS DIP TO -16C TO -17C/-27C. INCRSG NW
WINDS/DESTABILIZATION WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS AND SOME BLSN AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE E...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BE OUT OF THE W
MOST OF THE DAY...SO THE SN SHOWERS THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE LK SHORE UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z...WHEN THE FASTER HI RES CNDN
MODEL SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF SHARPER CYC FLOW/ WSHFT TO THE NW. FCST
LES WARNINGS FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES BEGINS AT 21Z...SO
WL NOT CHANGE THIS START TIME. THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SN SHOWERS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
TNGT...UPR TROF/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND MSTR/SFC LO PRES
TROF AND CYC WSHFT TO THE NW ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY E. THESE
TRENDS WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS/SN RATES IN THE NW SN BELTS MAINLY E
OF MARQUETTE. THE 00Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE HI RES CNDN MODEL HINT
LK NIPIGON MOISTENING WL GREATLY ENHANCE SN RATES OVER ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO THE GOING WRNGS APPEAR ON TRACK. AS WL BE
THE CASE TODAY OVER THE W...HI EQUILIBRIUM LVL AND FAVORABLE UVV MAX
WITHIN THE DGZ WL BE ENHANCING FACTORS FOR SN RATES IN THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DYANAMIC SUPPORT/VERY DEEP MSTR MAY
SLOW DOWN THE HEAVY SN RATES OVER THE W BY THE OVERNGT HRS...
LINGERING CYC NW BACKING TOWARD THE WNW OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 12Z WL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAVORED SN
BELTS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED NW FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY...WL CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR THIS AREA GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR HIER WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE AND HEAVIER SN IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIGHTEST AND LEAST
WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY
WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST (ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES) WHERE THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BE AIDED BY LOW
LEVEL WINDS STARTING TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE EAST...BEFORE THE DRYING AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SEEN OVER THE WEST DURING THE MORNING...MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND DIMINISHES THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE STEADILY BACKING THROUGH THE DAY...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY
THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. THUS...WOULD EXPECT TRANSIENT BANDS
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST OF PICTURED ROCKS. AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION...HAVE ANOTHER
3-5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DEERTON TO MANISTIQUE AND
ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OVER THE TRADITIONAL AREAS OVER THE WEST.
TUESDAY EVENING...COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES AS THE LAKE EFFECT
TRANSITIONS NORTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BEFORE IT MOVES
OFFSHORE.
ALSO ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE AREA AND
BRING MORE VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE
LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO PUSH THE BAND INTO THAT AREA. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PICKUP IN THE KEWEENAW FIRST (WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE NORMAL
WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO HOLD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS
VARY ON ITS LOCATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND HOW
QUICKLY IT DEPARTS. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE FINER DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN AND WILL FOCUS ON GENERAL NORTHWEST WIND LAKE
EFFECT FOR THE TIME BEING. STILL EXPECT VERY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS (DELTA-T VALUES AROUND 23) BUT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
VALUES WILL BE 5KFT LOWER THAN TONIGHT (UP TO 13KFT) AND LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 800 J/KG. WINDS DO LOOK TO BE
WEAKER DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS FRACTURING OF
THE DENDRITES...BUT DO HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THE TOP HALF OF
THE CLOUD WILL BE ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT MORE COLUMNS IN THE SNOW
AND LEAD TO LOWER RATIOS. THUS...WILL STICK WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 20-1 AT THIS POINT AND WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE WITH
FUTURE SHIFTS. THIS PRODUCES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 11 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS A GENERAL LES
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT (UNLESS INCREASED CONVERGENCE
OCCURS ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH) AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO/EHWO.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN TURN A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS STEADILY FALL AND WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO MODERATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH
CONSISTENCY FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS THEY AREA STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR WRAPPING
NORTHWARD...DID GO WITH MAINLY RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY NW
WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR
BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN
AND CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN -SHSN LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...SWEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...LOOK FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXPANDING TO THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND WILL CONTINUE. A TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BRIEFLY BEING REPLACED BY A RIDGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA ON
TUESDAY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY...EXTENDING A
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND DIMINISHING WINDS
BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY...WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME
PLACES TODAY...BUT HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SOME OF THE CLASSIC SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
THE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY FROM N LAKE MICHIGAN TO NW LOWER. THIS
HAS LEAD TO THE SW SNOW BANDS MERGING AND FLARING UP AS THEY MOVE
INLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW AS THE BANDS
TRANSIT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL EXPECT THAT
THE BANDS WILL LOSE THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE SNOW BANDS ARE ALREADY REFORMING WITH THE
WEST WIND OVER THE N LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BE EXPECTING THAT THE
SNOW BANDS WILL REESTABLISH QUICKLY, BUT THE WHETHER THEY WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY OR BE TRANSIENT OVER THE AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN
AS THE MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 30
DEGREES IN THE 1000-850 MB WIND DIRECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE
GOING AFTERNOON FORECAST UNTIL THE BANDS SHOW THEIR INTENTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: KINDA STATING THE OBVIOUS...BUT
MID-WINTER LIKE PATTERN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
REASON FOR SUCH IS ONE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME...CONSISTING OF FULL LENGTH WESTERN NOAM RIDGING AND JUST AS
IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES. MOST IMPRESSIVE COLD SURGE YET TIED TO WAVE OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN DIVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND INTO MINNESOTA (-20C H8
TEMPERATURES PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS!). SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING
WELL AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ALREADY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MICHIGAN AT
THIS EARLY HOUR. AREA OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE (A PRETTY RARE FEAT
TO HAVE SUCH COLD PRE-FRONTAL AIR DURING MID NOVEMBER). MAIN SHOW
TONIGHT HAS BEEN DIRECTED INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN..
WHERE NO DOUBT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER MORE NUISANCE TYPE SNOWS IMPACTING NORTHER
LOWER...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET COUNTY. SIMPLY NO END IN
SIGHT...WITH CURRENT UPSTREAM WAVE SET TO AMPLIFY OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORCING A SHIFTING OF THE WINDS TO MORE W/NW AND
PUTTING THE MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MULTIPLE! INITIAL FOCUS ON
ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT FOCUS ON MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOW EVENT...INCLUDING
AMOUNTS AND HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.
DETAILS: NOT PRETTY! FIRST OFF...ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE SNOWS SHOULD
STEADILY DECLINE IN INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER 09Z AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AND BRIEF CORRIDOR OF UPSTREAM DRIER AIR OVERSPEADS THE
LAKES. CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THROUGH 15Z...WHICH OFFERS SOME
FLEXIBILITY IF BANDS SHOULD PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (NEVER
SEEN THAN BEFORE :)). NO OFFICIAL REPORTS JUST YET...BUT BASED OFF
MACKINAC BRIDGE WEB CAMS AND SOME INFORMATION GLEANED FROM CALLING
ST. IGNACE...GOTTA FEELING WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP IN THE STRAITS AREA BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME LIGHTER SNOWS EXPECTED AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY MID-MORNING.
WITH PART ONE DONE...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG...SLOWLY CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MAIN CORE OF
ATTENDANT CAA ACTUALLY PASSING US BY TO THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY
RAMPS UP IMPRESSIVELY LATE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR
EXTREME DELTA T/S COLLOCATED WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SUPPORT AND
ESSENTIALLY ALL LOSS OF AN INVERSION. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IMPRESSIVE...
SUGGESTING ENHANCED CONVERGENCE TARGETING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED IN RECENT GUIDANCE
RUNS...WELL SUPPORTED BY WHAT SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING LAKE DRIVEN
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...
EXPECT SNOWS TO GET GOING IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WITH INITIAL
FOCUS IN FAVORED WEST FLOW AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE M-32 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG OMEGA CENTERED RIGHT
IN PRIME DGZ RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SOME FRAGMENTATION
OF FLAKES FROM VERY GUSTY WINDS (MORE ON THE WINDS TO
FOLLOW)...EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO PUSH 20 TO 1...PERHAPS
EVEN HIGHER IF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDER BANDS HELP
SLACKING THE WIND FIELDS. SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY THING FROM PREVENTING SNOW AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF
HAND. STILL...COULD EASILY SEE PARTS OF
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO/EMMET/CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES EXCEEDING 8 INCHES
BY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST DOWNWIND OF LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY. ANY SLOWER DRIFT OF BANDS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHER SOUTH...COMPLETE LACK
OF A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION REALLY SHORTENS THE EFFECTIVE FETCH
LENGTH. SO...DESPITE EXCELLENT INSTABILITY...JUST NOT SEEING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-
72 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE FOR
SOME NASTY CONDITIONS...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES.
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR: INITIAL FOCUS THIS EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST
OF WHITEFISH POINT...REALLY TARGETING AREAS OVER NEAR MUNISING AND
SENEY. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE W/NW LATE...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOW BANDS INTO NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY. LATER START AND SIGNALS
FOR BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST SUGGESTS
LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN THOSE TO THE SOUTH...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
EXPECTED BY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH BANDS FURTHER INLAND
THAN WHAT IS NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN BRINGING PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MACKINAC COUNTY SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
MORE SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL THE ABOVE AREAS TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL
MORE INCHES EXPECTED (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW).
HEADLINES: FOR NORTHERN LOWER...GIVEN GUSTY WINDS AND WHAT COULD BE
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW EVEN OUTSIDE THE BETTER SNOW BANDS...HAVE
DECIDED TO FORGO THE SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR MORE GENERIC
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL AREA MENTIONED EARLIER
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...STARTING AT 00Z THIS
EVENING RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
SHOULD DO FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-72...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
LOWER AS STRONG WINDS HELP PUSH WEAKENING BANDS FAR INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF SNOW AND COLD DURING THE
WORK WEEK. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN WNW/NW FLOW TUESDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WED NIGHT TO THU NIGHT.
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL EJECT FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON INTO EASTERN
QUEBEC. ONE TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL DIG TOWARD EASTERN SUPERIOR. A
980MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING IN CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND WILL
ADVANCE NE. SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THIS RELAXES AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT...BUT LAKE-
INDUCED TROFFING REMAINS EVIDENT THRU THE DAY.
1000-850MB WINDS REMAIN STEADY-STATE IN THE MORNING...WNW INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND NW INTO EASTERN UPPER. WINDS WILL BACK SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BY EARLY EVENING WE WILL SEE A W FETCH INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND WNW INTO EASTERN UPPER. PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE...HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (TO NEARLY 500MB)...AND DELTA T/S
NEAR 20C SHOULD ENSURE RAMPAGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE INVERSION LOWERS TOWARD 700MB WITH
DRYING ALOFT. THAT WILL REDUCE SNOW INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...BUT BY AND
LARGE PARAMETERS AND STILL VERY FAVORABLE.
AS IS THE CASE FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE BACKED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN NORTHERN LOWER...THIS REQUIRES
ADJUSTING THE MAX SNOW TOTALS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO ARE THE MAIN ONES UNDER THE GUN...BUT THE
FETCH NOW SUPPORTS MORE SNOW IN SOUTHERN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN THAN IT
DOES IN NORTHERN KALKASKA/CRAWFORD. 5-9 INCHES STILL LIKES A GOOD
FORECAST FOR THE DAY IN THE HARDEST-HIT LOCALES...CENTERED ON
ELMIRA. 1-4 INCHES WORKS ELSEWHERE IN NW LOWER...WHERE THE FETCH IS
MUCH SHORTER AND HAS NO CONNECTION TO SUPERIOR.
IN EASTERN UPPER...THE BACKED FLOW OPENS UP MORE OF CHIPPEWA...BUT
SHOULD STILL KEEP THE STRONGEST BANDS WEST OF THE SAULT. BUT THINGS
ARE LOOKING CONSIDERABLY MORE FAVORABLE UP THERE...AND WILL INCREASE
WESTERN CHIP AND FAR NW MACK INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTH...WHERE MARINE MODIFICATION WILL BE SMALLER DUE TO THE
SHORTER FETCH...SOME PLACES (LIKE CAD) WILL LIKELY NOT ESCAPE THE
TEENS. (HARD TO BELIEVE IT/S ONLY MID-NOVEMBER.)
TUE NIGHT/WED...NOT MUCH REST FOR THE SNOW-WEARY. CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON WED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL ADVANCE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NORTHERN LOWER MI ON WED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW TUE NIGHT...WITH MOISTENING
OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY 1-3 INCH ACCUMS OVER THE
TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER TUE EVENING. SYNOPTIC -SN MIGHT SNEAK INTO SW
SECTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE THAT WILL WAIT UNTIL
WED. BY THEN...A SOUTH 1000-850MB FETCH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE-
INDUCED NONSENSE AT BAY...OTHER THAN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF UPPER
MI (AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH). THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR PROBLEM...1-2
INCHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32. MIN TEMPS TEENS TO PERHAPS HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS (YIKES). MAX TEMPS 20S.
REST OF THE FORECAST...POST-CLIPPER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR WED
NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...AIDED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NW. THE SET-UP FOR HEAVY SNOW LOOKS BETTER IN EASTERN
UPPER IN THIS EVENT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER THERE VS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SOUTHER/CENTRAL LAKES.
REGARDLESS...LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN
BOTH PENINSULAS.
THOUGH THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST TO BREAK PATTERNS DOWN...ALL
MODELS HAVE THE CURRENT ONE FALL APART AFTER THIS LAST CLIPPER.
500MB FLOW BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE ZONAL...AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR
WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL AMPLIFY WARM ADVECTION...AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES BY SUNDAY. THIS ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
VFR TO MVFR AT APN...MVFR TO IFR ELSEWHERE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/SHSN.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. LAKE
EFFECT SHSN TODAY WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO VARYING WINDS
AND DRYING ALOFT. HOWEVER...SHSN WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT IN THE
SNOWBELTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BETWEEN PLN AND GOV.
WILL HAVE VARYING CONDITIONS TODAY...TENDING TO MVFR NEAR LAKE MI
AND VFR AT APN. TONIGHT..LAKE MI TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR
(LIFR LATE AT PLN)...WHILE APN BECOMES MVFR.
WINDS WILL VEER W TODAY...STAY W AND INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
STRONG SURGE OF CAA AND INCREASINGLY SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS BY LATER TODAY RIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE GALE FORCE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME GALE GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LOWER COASTLINE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ018-020-023-025>028-031>033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ016-017-019-021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
SYNOPSIS...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JAZ
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEPENING
UPR TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER ONTARIO JUST
NW OF LK SUP CAUSING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M BTWN 16/12Z AND
17/00Z AT INL AND DRAWING H5 TEMPS CLOSE TO -40C S UNDER THE AXIS OF
LOWEST HGTS. BAND OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL
MSTR IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO IS CROSSING
UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB
RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH IS 45 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS GREATLY LIMITING THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SN OVER THE FAR E NEAR NEWBERRY WITH A SW WIND OFF NRN LK
MI...BUT THE FLOW HAS NOT BACKED SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE THE HEAVIER
SN SHOWERS IN MACKINAC COUNTY TO IMPACT LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.
LOOKING TO THE W...THE 00Z H85/7 TEMPS WERE -17C/-27C AT INL /VS
-14C AND -16C AT GRB/. THE 00Z INL IS QUITE MOIST ALMOST UP TO H5
WITHIN A DEEP CYC FLOW. THERE IS A SHARP SFC WSHFT FM W TO NW ALONG
A SFC LO PRES TROF RUNNING THRU NRN MN INTO ADJACENT ONTARIO...WITH
SFC REPORTS SHOWING SOME MODERATE SN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS
BNDRY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON LES AMOUNTS/GOING HEADLINES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD/MOIST AIRMASS. MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO
HEADLINES ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
TODAY...AS CUTOFF H5 LO DEEPENS FURTHER AND SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E
ACROSS UPR MI...SHARP CYC LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY ENVELOP THE
CWA W-E WITH A WSHFT FM WSW EARLY THIS MRNG TO NW BY LATE IN THE DAY
EXCEPT OVER THE SE CWA. THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ARRIVE OVER THE W
ARND 12Z AND RESULT IN INCRSG SN RATES DESPITE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR LKS EARLY THIS
MRNG. THE HIER RES MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO THE AREA ARND
ONTONAGON COUNTY AS THE FOCUS FOR THE SHARPEST CNVGC. GOING START
TIME OF 12Z FOR THE WARNINGS OVER THE W APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
SINCE THE RATHER LO UVV MAX IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP LYR FORCING WL BE
CENTERED IN THE DGZ...EXPECT GOOD SN/WATER RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1
DESPITE A DGZ DEPTH OF ONLY ABOUT 3K FT AND INCRSG WINDS THAT WOULD
TEND TO FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES. WITH SOME INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UVV OVER THE W HALF LATER IN THE DAY UNDER THE DEEPENING UPR
TROF AXIS...FCST SDNGS ALSO INDICATE INCRSG DEEP MSTR THRU THE DAY
PER THE 00Z INL RAOB WITH EQUILIBRIUM LVLS APRCHG 10K FT OVER THE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS H85/7 TEMPS DIP TO -16C TO -17C/-27C. INCRSG NW
WINDS/DESTABILIZATION WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS AND SOME BLSN AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE E...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BE OUT OF THE W
MOST OF THE DAY...SO THE SN SHOWERS THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE LK SHORE UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z...WHEN THE FASTER HI RES CNDN
MODEL SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF SHARPER CYC FLOW/ WSHFT TO THE NW. FCST
LES WARNINGS FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES BEGINS AT 21Z...SO
WL NOT CHANGE THIS START TIME. THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SN SHOWERS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
TNGT...UPR TROF/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND MSTR/SFC LO PRES
TROF AND CYC WSHFT TO THE NW ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY E. THESE
TRENDS WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS/SN RATES IN THE NW SN BELTS MAINLY E
OF MARQUETTE. THE 00Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE HI RES CNDN MODEL HINT
LK NIPIGON MOISTENING WL GREATLY ENHANCE SN RATES OVER ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO THE GOING WRNGS APPEAR ON TRACK. AS WL BE
THE CASE TODAY OVER THE W...HI EQUILIBRIUM LVL AND FAVORABLE UVV MAX
WITHIN THE DGZ WL BE ENHANCING FACTORS FOR SN RATES IN THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DYANAMIC SUPPORT/VERY DEEP MSTR MAY
SLOW DOWN THE HEAVY SN RATES OVER THE W BY THE OVERNGT HRS...
LINGERING CYC NW BACKING TOWARD THE WNW OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 12Z WL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAVORED SN
BELTS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED NW FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY...WL CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR THIS AREA GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR HIER WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE AND HEAVIER SN IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIGHTEST AND LEAST
WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY
WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST (ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES) WHERE THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BE AIDED BY LOW
LEVEL WINDS STARTING TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE EAST...BEFORE THE DRYING AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SEEN OVER THE WEST DURING THE MORNING...MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND DIMINISHES THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE STEADILY BACKING THROUGH THE DAY...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY
THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. THUS...WOULD EXPECT TRANSIENT BANDS
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST OF PICTURED ROCKS. AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION...HAVE ANOTHER
3-5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DEERTON TO MANISTIQUE AND
ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OVER THE TRADITIONAL AREAS OVER THE WEST.
TUESDAY EVENING...COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES AS THE LAKE EFFECT
TRANSITIONS NORTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BEFORE IT MOVES
OFFSHORE.
ALSO ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE AREA AND
BRING MORE VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE
LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO PUSH THE BAND INTO THAT AREA. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PICKUP IN THE KEWEENAW FIRST (WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE NORMAL
WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO HOLD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS
VARY ON ITS LOCATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND HOW
QUICKLY IT DEPARTS. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE FINER DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN AND WILL FOCUS ON GENERAL NORTHWEST WIND LAKE
EFFECT FOR THE TIME BEING. STILL EXPECT VERY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS (DELTA-T VALUES AROUND 23) BUT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
VALUES WILL BE 5KFT LOWER THAN TONIGHT (UP TO 13KFT) AND LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 800 J/KG. WINDS DO LOOK TO BE
WEAKER DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS FRACTURING OF
THE DENDRITES...BUT DO HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THE TOP HALF OF
THE CLOUD WILL BE ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT MORE COLUMNS IN THE SNOW
AND LEAD TO LOWER RATIOS. THUS...WILL STICK WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 20-1 AT THIS POINT AND WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE WITH
FUTURE SHIFTS. THIS PRODUCES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 11 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS A GENERAL LES
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT (UNLESS INCREASED CONVERGENCE
OCCURS ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH) AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO/EHWO.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN TURN A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS STEADILY FALL AND WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO MODERATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH
CONSISTENCY FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS THEY AREA STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR WRAPPING
NORTHWARD...DID GO WITH MAINLY RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
THE COMBINATION OF INCRSG DEEP MSTR AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF WL
BRING HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SN TO CMX AND IWD...WITH CONDITIONS AT
THOSE SITES DETERIORATING TO IFR THIS MRNG. AS CYC NW WINDS BECOME
QUITE GUSTY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
BLSN TO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE LIFR RANGE AT IWD AND CMX FOR THE REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WL
IMPACT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. SINCE THE FLOW WL BE A
DOWNSLOPE W WIND AT SAW THRU THIS MRNG...VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE THERE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR AND THE TROF
LATER THIS AFTN. IFR TO AT TIMES MVFR VSBYS WL THEN BE THE RULE
UNTIL LATE TNGT...WHEN THE DEEPER MSTR WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/PERHAPS VFR WITH DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...SWEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...LOOK FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXPANDING TO THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND WILL CONTINUE. A TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BRIEFLY BEING REPLACED BY A RIDGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA ON
TUESDAY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY...EXTENDING A
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND DIMINISHING WINDS
BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
/3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
632 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY...WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME
PLACES TODAY...BUT HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SOME OF THE CLASSIC SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: KINDA STATING THE OBVIOUS...BUT
MID-WINTER LIKE PATTERN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
REASON FOR SUCH IS ONE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME...CONSISTING OF FULL LENGTH WESTERN NOAM RIDGING AND JUST AS
IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES. MOST IMPRESSIVE COLD SURGE YET TIED TO WAVE OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN DIVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND INTO MINNESOTA (-20C H8
TEMPERATURES PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS!). SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING
WELL AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ALREADY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MICHIGAN AT
THIS EARLY HOUR. AREA OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE (A PRETTY RARE FEAT
TO HAVE SUCH COLD PRE-FRONTAL AIR DURING MID NOVEMBER). MAIN SHOW
TONIGHT HAS BEEN DIRECTED INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN..
WHERE NO DOUBT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER MORE NUISANCE TYPE SNOWS IMPACTING NORTHER
LOWER...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET COUNTY. SIMPLY NO END IN
SIGHT...WITH CURRENT UPSTREAM WAVE SET TO AMPLIFY OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORCING A SHIFTING OF THE WINDS TO MORE W/NW AND
PUTTING THE MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MULTIPLE! INITIAL FOCUS ON
ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT FOCUS ON MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOW EVENT...INCLUDING
AMOUNTS AND HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.
DETAILS: NOT PRETTY! FIRST OFF...ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE SNOWS SHOULD
STEADILY DECLINE IN INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER 09Z AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AND BRIEF CORRIDOR OF UPSTREAM DRIER AIR OVERSPEADS THE
LAKES. CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THROUGH 15Z...WHICH OFFERS SOME
FLEXIBILITY IF BANDS SHOULD PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (NEVER
SEEN THAN BEFORE :)). NO OFFICIAL REPORTS JUST YET...BUT BASED OFF
MACKINAC BRIDGE WEB CAMS AND SOME INFORMATION GLEANED FROM CALLING
ST. IGNACE...GOTTA FEELING WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP IN THE STRAITS AREA BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME LIGHTER SNOWS EXPECTED AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY MID-MORNING.
WITH PART ONE DONE...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG...SLOWLY CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MAIN CORE OF
ATTENDANT CAA ACTUALLY PASSING US BY TO THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY
RAMPS UP IMPRESSIVELY LATE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR
EXTREME DELTA T/S COLLOCATED WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SUPPORT AND
ESSENTIALLY ALL LOSS OF AN INVERSION. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IMPRESSIVE...
SUGGESTING ENHANCED CONVERGENCE TARGETING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED IN RECENT GUIDANCE
RUNS...WELL SUPPORTED BY WHAT SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING LAKE DRIVEN
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...
EXPECT SNOWS TO GET GOING IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WITH INITIAL
FOCUS IN FAVORED WEST FLOW AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE M-32 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG OMEGA CENTERED RIGHT
IN PRIME DGZ RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SOME FRAGMENTATION
OF FLAKES FROM VERY GUSTY WINDS (MORE ON THE WINDS TO
FOLLOW)...EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO PUSH 20 TO 1...PERHAPS
EVEN HIGHER IF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDER BANDS HELP
SLACKING THE WIND FIELDS. SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY THING FROM PREVENTING SNOW AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF
HAND. STILL...COULD EASILY SEE PARTS OF
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO/EMMET/CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES EXCEEDING 8 INCHES
BY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST DOWNWIND OF LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY. ANY SLOWER DRIFT OF BANDS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHER SOUTH...COMPLETE LACK
OF A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION REALLY SHORTENS THE EFFECTIVE FETCH
LENGTH. SO...DESPITE EXCELLENT INSTABILITY...JUST NOT SEEING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-
72 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE FOR
SOME NASTY CONDITIONS...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES.
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR: INITIAL FOCUS THIS EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST
OF WHITEFISH POINT...REALLY TARGETING AREAS OVER NEAR MUNISING AND
SENEY. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE W/NW LATE...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOW BANDS INTO NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY. LATER START AND SIGNALS
FOR BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST SUGGESTS
LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN THOSE TO THE SOUTH...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
EXPECTED BY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH BANDS FURTHER INLAND
THAN WHAT IS NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN BRINGING PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MACKINAC COUNTY SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
MORE SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL THE ABOVE AREAS TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL
MORE INCHES EXPECTED (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW).
HEADLINES: FOR NORTHERN LOWER...GIVEN GUSTY WINDS AND WHAT COULD BE
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW EVEN OUTSIDE THE BETTER SNOW BANDS...HAVE
DECIDED TO FORGO THE SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR MORE GENERIC
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL AREA MENTIONED EARLIER
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...STARTING AT 00Z THIS
EVENING RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
SHOULD DO FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-72...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
LOWER AS STRONG WINDS HELP PUSH WEAKENING BANDS FAR INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF SNOW AND COLD DURING THE
WORK WEEK. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN WNW/NW FLOW TUESDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WED NIGHT TO THU NIGHT.
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL EJECT FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON INTO EASTERN
QUEBEC. ONE TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL DIG TOWARD EASTERN SUPERIOR. A
980MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING IN CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND WILL
ADVANCE NE. SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THIS RELAXES AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT...BUT LAKE-
INDUCED TROFFING REMAINS EVIDENT THRU THE DAY.
1000-850MB WINDS REMAIN STEADY-STATE IN THE MORNING...WNW INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND NW INTO EASTERN UPPER. WINDS WILL BACK SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BY EARLY EVENING WE WILL SEE A W FETCH INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND WNW INTO EASTERN UPPER. PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE...HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (TO NEARLY 500MB)...AND DELTA T/S
NEAR 20C SHOULD ENSURE RAMPAGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE INVERSION LOWERS TOWARD 700MB WITH
DRYING ALOFT. THAT WILL REDUCE SNOW INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...BUT BY AND
LARGE PARAMETERS AND STILL VERY FAVORABLE.
AS IS THE CASE FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE BACKED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN NORTHERN LOWER...THIS REQUIRES
ADJUSTING THE MAX SNOW TOTALS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO ARE THE MAIN ONES UNDER THE GUN...BUT THE
FETCH NOW SUPPORTS MORE SNOW IN SOUTHERN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN THAN IT
DOES IN NORTHERN KALKASKA/CRAWFORD. 5-9 INCHES STILL LIKES A GOOD
FORECAST FOR THE DAY IN THE HARDEST-HIT LOCALES...CENTERED ON
ELMIRA. 1-4 INCHES WORKS ELSEWHERE IN NW LOWER...WHERE THE FETCH IS
MUCH SHORTER AND HAS NO CONNECTION TO SUPERIOR.
IN EASTERN UPPER...THE BACKED FLOW OPENS UP MORE OF CHIPPEWA...BUT
SHOULD STILL KEEP THE STRONGEST BANDS WEST OF THE SAULT. BUT THINGS
ARE LOOKING CONSIDERABLY MORE FAVORABLE UP THERE...AND WILL INCREASE
WESTERN CHIP AND FAR NW MACK INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTH...WHERE MARINE MODIFICATION WILL BE SMALLER DUE TO THE
SHORTER FETCH...SOME PLACES (LIKE CAD) WILL LIKELY NOT ESCAPE THE
TEENS. (HARD TO BELIEVE IT/S ONLY MID-NOVEMBER.)
TUE NIGHT/WED...NOT MUCH REST FOR THE SNOW-WEARY. CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON WED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL ADVANCE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NORTHERN LOWER MI ON WED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW TUE NIGHT...WITH MOISTENING
OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY 1-3 INCH ACCUMS OVER THE
TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER TUE EVENING. SYNOPTIC -SN MIGHT SNEAK INTO SW
SECTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE THAT WILL WAIT UNTIL
WED. BY THEN...A SOUTH 1000-850MB FETCH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE-
INDUCED NONSENSE AT BAY...OTHER THAN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF UPPER
MI (AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH). THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR PROBLEM...1-2
INCHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32. MIN TEMPS TEENS TO PERHAPS HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS (YIKES). MAX TEMPS 20S.
REST OF THE FORECAST...POST-CLIPPER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR WED
NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...AIDED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NW. THE SET-UP FOR HEAVY SNOW LOOKS BETTER IN EASTERN
UPPER IN THIS EVENT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER THERE VS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SOUTHER/CENTRAL LAKES.
REGARDLESS...LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN
BOTH PENINSULAS.
THOUGH THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST TO BREAK PATTERNS DOWN...ALL
MODELS HAVE THE CURRENT ONE FALL APART AFTER THIS LAST CLIPPER.
500MB FLOW BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE ZONAL...AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR
WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL AMPLIFY WARM ADVECTION...AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES BY SUNDAY. THIS ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
VFR TO MVFR AT APN...MVFR TO IFR ELSEWHERE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/SHSN.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. LAKE
EFFECT SHSN TODAY WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO VARYING WINDS
AND DRYING ALOFT. HOWEVER...SHSN WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT IN THE
SNOWBELTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BETWEEN PLN AND GOV.
WILL HAVE VARYING CONDITIONS TODAY...TENDING TO MVFR NEAR LAKE MI
AND VFR AT APN. TONIGHT..LAKE MI TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR
(LIFR LATE AT PLN)...WHILE APN BECOMES MVFR.
WINDS WILL VEER W TODAY...STAY W AND INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
STRONG SURGE OF CAA AND INCREASINGLY SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS BY LATER TODAY RIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE GALE FORCE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME GALE GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LOWER COASTLINE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ018-020-023-025>028-031>033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ016-017-019-021-022.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ008-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JAZ
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEPENING
UPR TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER ONTARIO JUST
NW OF LK SUP CAUSING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M BTWN 16/12Z AND
17/00Z AT INL AND DRAWING H5 TEMPS CLOSE TO -40C S UNDER THE AXIS OF
LOWEST HGTS. BAND OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL
MSTR IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO IS CROSSING
UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB
RAOB /PWAT 0.16 INCH IS 45 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS GREATLY LIMITING THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SN OVER THE FAR E NEAR NEWBERRY WITH A SW WIND OFF NRN LK
MI...BUT THE FLOW HAS NOT BACKED SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE THE HEAVIER
SN SHOWERS IN MACKINAC COUNTY TO IMPACT LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.
LOOKING TO THE W...THE 00Z H85/7 TEMPS WERE -17C/-27C AT INL /VS
-14C AND -16C AT GRB/. THE 00Z INL IS QUITE MOIST ALMOST UP TO H5
WITHIN A DEEP CYC FLOW. THERE IS A SHARP SFC WSHFT FM W TO NW ALONG
A SFC LO PRES TROF RUNNING THRU NRN MN INTO ADJACENT ONTARIO...WITH
SFC REPORTS SHOWING SOME MODERATE SN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS
BNDRY.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON LES AMOUNTS/GOING HEADLINES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD/MOIST AIRMASS. MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO
HEADLINES ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
TODAY...AS CUTOFF H5 LO DEEPENS FURTHER AND SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E
ACROSS UPR MI...SHARP CYC LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY ENVELOP THE
CWA W-E WITH A WSHFT FM WSW EARLY THIS MRNG TO NW BY LATE IN THE DAY
EXCEPT OVER THE SE CWA. THE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL ARRIVE OVER THE W
ARND 12Z AND RESULT IN INCRSG SN RATES DESPITE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR LKS EARLY THIS
MRNG. THE HIER RES MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO THE AREA ARND
ONTONAGON COUNTY AS THE FOCUS FOR THE SHARPEST CNVGC. GOING START
TIME OF 12Z FOR THE WARNINGS OVER THE W APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
SINCE THE RATHER LO UVV MAX IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP LYR FORCING WL BE
CENTERED IN THE DGZ...EXPECT GOOD SN/WATER RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1
DESPITE A DGZ DEPTH OF ONLY ABOUT 3K FT AND INCRSG WINDS THAT WOULD
TEND TO FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES. WITH SOME INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UVV OVER THE W HALF LATER IN THE DAY UNDER THE DEEPENING UPR
TROF AXIS...FCST SDNGS ALSO INDICATE INCRSG DEEP MSTR THRU THE DAY
PER THE 00Z INL RAOB WITH EQUILIBRIUM LVLS APRCHG 10K FT OVER THE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS H85/7 TEMPS DIP TO -16C TO -17C/-27C. INCRSG NW
WINDS/DESTABILIZATION WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS AND SOME BLSN AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE E...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BE OUT OF THE W
MOST OF THE DAY...SO THE SN SHOWERS THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE LK SHORE UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z...WHEN THE FASTER HI RES CNDN
MODEL SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF SHARPER CYC FLOW/ WSHFT TO THE NW. FCST
LES WARNINGS FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES BEGINS AT 21Z...SO
WL NOT CHANGE THIS START TIME. THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SN SHOWERS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
TNGT...UPR TROF/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND MSTR/SFC LO PRES
TROF AND CYC WSHFT TO THE NW ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY E. THESE
TRENDS WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS/SN RATES IN THE NW SN BELTS MAINLY E
OF MARQUETTE. THE 00Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE HI RES CNDN MODEL HINT
LK NIPIGON MOISTENING WL GREATLY ENHANCE SN RATES OVER ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO THE GOING WRNGS APPEAR ON TRACK. AS WL BE
THE CASE TODAY OVER THE W...HI EQUILIBRIUM LVL AND FAVORABLE UVV MAX
WITHIN THE DGZ WL BE ENHANCING FACTORS FOR SN RATES IN THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DYANAMIC SUPPORT/VERY DEEP MSTR MAY
SLOW DOWN THE HEAVY SN RATES OVER THE W BY THE OVERNGT HRS...
LINGERING CYC NW BACKING TOWARD THE WNW OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 12Z WL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAVORED SN
BELTS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED NW FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY...WL CONTINUE THE ADVY FOR THIS AREA GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR HIER WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE AND HEAVIER SN IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIGHTEST AND LEAST
WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
MONDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI AT 00Z/TUE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON BY TUE MORNING AS THE SFC
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN AS CAA
DROP 850/700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C/-26C. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
FAVORALB FOR HEAVY LES WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1K J/KG
AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO NEAR 17K FT. STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN THE
3K-6K FT DGZ WILL SUPPORT SLR VALUES AOA 20/1 BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
FRACTURING/COMPACTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION/DURATION OF THE HEAVY BANDS
WITH THE GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS. THE 330 FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW INTO THE WEST FROM IWD TO
ROCKLAND AND INTO ALGER COUNTY OVER THE EAST. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WEST AND TO NEAR 10 INCHES INTO
ALGER AND NW SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS THE
LOW LEVEL WIND LINES UP PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE FROM BIG BAY TO
MARQUETTE. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS VEER ENOUGH SO
THAT THE TRAJECTORIES STILL BRING SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS INTO THE
NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE COUNTY FROM BIG BAY AND THE HURON
MOUNTAINS TO NEGAUNEE AND MARQUETTE. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT THE HEAVY BANDS WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WARNING AMOUNTS SNOW TOTALS (8 INCHES OR GREATER IN 12 HOURS). THE
STRONG WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE SHORE WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLSN WITH VERY POOR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
TUE...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY WITH QVECTOR DIV..SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND STEADILY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC RIDGE THE LES WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE LONGER FETCH INTO THE EAST COULD STILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FROM MUNISING
EASTWARD.
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY THERE MAY BE PERIOD
WHEN LOW LEVEL CONV FAVORS A STRONGER BAND INTO THE KEWEENAW WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW. OTHERWISE...THE LES IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS WINDS BECOME SW.
WED-THU...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVING SE INTO THE NRN LAKES
WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AND REINVIGORATE THE LES
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW. AWAY FROM
THE LES SNOWBELTS...THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE SHRTWV AND SFC TROUGH ON WED. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE SNOWBELTS
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH.
FRI-SAT...A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS
AMPLIFIED. WAA WITH SW FLOW BY SAT COULD BRING TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
30F...STILL BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY BY SUN AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF PCPN COULD AFFECT THE AREA. THE 12Z/16 ECMWF
EVEN BRINGS IN ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR MAINLY RAIN BY SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN EITHER PCPN POTENTIAL/TYPE/AMOUNT IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN. EXPECT VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO TREND IFR /MAINLY VSBY/ IN MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT KIWD AND KCMX BEHIND
THE FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FM THE NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTN
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX LOCATION.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL GO
FOR IFR VSBY LATE THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE AFTN AT
KSAW AS WELL...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHILE DEEPENING. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT THROUGH FAR E ONTARIO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE TO GALES OF 35-40KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING
TO THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. A TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BRIEFLY BEING REPLACED BY A RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER N MANITOBA ON TUESDAY WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY...EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
/3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY...WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME
PLACES TODAY...BUT HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SOME OF THE CLASSIC SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: KINDA STATING THE OBVIOUS...BUT
MID-WINTER LIKE PATTERN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
REASON FOR SUCH IS ONE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME...CONSISTING OF FULL LENGTH WESTERN NOAM RIDGING AND JUST AS
IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES. MOST IMPRESSIVE COLD SURGE YET TIED TO WAVE OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN DIVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND INTO MINNESOTA (-20C H8
TEMPERATURES PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS!). SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING
WELL AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ALREADY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MICHIGAN AT
THIS EARLY HOUR. AREA OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE (A PRETTY RARE FEAT
TO HAVE SUCH COLD PRE-FRONTAL AIR DURING MID NOVEMBER). MAIN SHOW
TONIGHT HAS BEEN DIRECTED INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN..
WHERE NO DOUBT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER MORE NUISANCE TYPE SNOWS IMPACTING NORTHER
LOWER...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET COUNTY. SIMPLY NO END IN
SIGHT...WITH CURRENT UPSTREAM WAVE SET TO AMPLIFY OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORCING A SHIFTING OF THE WINDS TO MORE W/NW AND
PUTTING THE MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: MULTIPLE! INITIAL FOCUS ON
ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT FOCUS ON MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOW EVENT...INCLUDING
AMOUNTS AND HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.
DETAILS: NOT PRETTY! FIRST OFF...ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE SNOWS SHOULD
STEADILY DECLINE IN INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER 09Z AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AND BRIEF CORRIDOR OF UPSTREAM DRIER AIR OVERSPEADS THE
LAKES. CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THROUGH 15Z...WHICH OFFERS SOME
FLEXIBILITY IF BANDS SHOULD PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (NEVER
SEEN THAN BEFORE :)). NO OFFICIAL REPORTS JUST YET...BUT BASED OFF
MACKINAC BRIDGE WEB CAMS AND SOME INFORMATION GLEANED FROM CALLING
ST. IGNACE...GOTTA FEELING WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP IN THE STRAITS AREA BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME LIGHTER SNOWS EXPECTED AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY MID-MORNING.
WITH PART ONE DONE...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG...SLOWLY CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MAIN CORE OF
ATTENDANT CAA ACTUALLY PASSING US BY TO THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY
RAMPS UP IMPRESSIVELY LATE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR
EXTREME DELTA T/S COLLOCATED WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SUPPORT AND
ESSENTIALLY ALL LOSS OF AN INVERSION. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IMPRESSIVE...
SUGGESTING ENHANCED CONVERGENCE TARGETING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED IN RECENT GUIDANCE
RUNS...WELL SUPPORTED BY WHAT SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING LAKE DRIVEN
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...
EXPECT SNOWS TO GET GOING IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WITH INITIAL
FOCUS IN FAVORED WEST FLOW AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE M-32 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG OMEGA CENTERED RIGHT
IN PRIME DGZ RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SOME FRAGMENTATION
OF FLAKES FROM VERY GUSTY WINDS (MORE ON THE WINDS TO
FOLLOW)...EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO PUSH 20 TO 1...PERHAPS
EVEN HIGHER IF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDER BANDS HELP
SLACKING THE WIND FIELDS. SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY THING FROM PREVENTING SNOW AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF
HAND. STILL...COULD EASILY SEE PARTS OF
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO/EMMET/CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES EXCEEDING 8 INCHES
BY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST DOWNWIND OF LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY. ANY SLOWER DRIFT OF BANDS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHER SOUTH...COMPLETE LACK
OF A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION REALLY SHORTENS THE EFFECTIVE FETCH
LENGTH. SO...DESPITE EXCELLENT INSTABILITY...JUST NOT SEEING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-
72 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE FOR
SOME NASTY CONDITIONS...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES.
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR: INITIAL FOCUS THIS EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST
OF WHITEFISH POINT...REALLY TARGETING AREAS OVER NEAR MUNISING AND
SENEY. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE W/NW LATE...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOW BANDS INTO NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY. LATER START AND SIGNALS
FOR BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST SUGGESTS
LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN THOSE TO THE SOUTH...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
EXPECTED BY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH BANDS FURTHER INLAND
THAN WHAT IS NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN BRINGING PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MACKINAC COUNTY SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
MORE SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL THE ABOVE AREAS TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL
MORE INCHES EXPECTED (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW).
HEADLINES: FOR NORTHERN LOWER...GIVEN GUSTY WINDS AND WHAT COULD BE
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW EVEN OUTSIDE THE BETTER SNOW BANDS...HAVE
DECIDED TO FORGO THE SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR MORE GENERIC
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL AREA MENTIONED EARLIER
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...STARTING AT 00Z THIS
EVENING RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
SHOULD DO FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-72...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
LOWER AS STRONG WINDS HELP PUSH WEAKENING BANDS FAR INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF SNOW AND COLD DURING THE
WORK WEEK. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN WNW/NW FLOW TUESDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WED NIGHT TO THU NIGHT.
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL EJECT FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON INTO EASTERN
QUEBEC. ONE TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL DIG TOWARD EASTERN SUPERIOR. A
980MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING IN CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND WILL
ADVANCE NE. SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THIS RELAXES AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT...BUT LAKE-
INDUCED TROFFING REMAINS EVIDENT THRU THE DAY.
1000-850MB WINDS REMAIN STEADY-STATE IN THE MORNING...WNW INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND NW INTO EASTERN UPPER. WINDS WILL BACK SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BY EARLY EVENING WE WILL SEE A W FETCH INTO
NORTHERN LOWER AND WNW INTO EASTERN UPPER. PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE...HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (TO NEARLY 500MB)...AND DELTA T/S
NEAR 20C SHOULD ENSURE RAMPAGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE INVERSION LOWERS TOWARD 700MB WITH
DRYING ALOFT. THAT WILL REDUCE SNOW INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...BUT BY AND
LARGE PARAMETERS AND STILL VERY FAVORABLE.
AS IS THE CASE FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE BACKED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN NORTHERN LOWER...THIS REQUIRES
ADJUSTING THE MAX SNOW TOTALS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.
CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/OTSEGO ARE THE MAIN ONES UNDER THE GUN...BUT THE
FETCH NOW SUPPORTS MORE SNOW IN SOUTHERN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN THAN IT
DOES IN NORTHERN KALKASKA/CRAWFORD. 5-9 INCHES STILL LIKES A GOOD
FORECAST FOR THE DAY IN THE HARDEST-HIT LOCALES...CENTERED ON
ELMIRA. 1-4 INCHES WORKS ELSEWHERE IN NW LOWER...WHERE THE FETCH IS
MUCH SHORTER AND HAS NO CONNECTION TO SUPERIOR.
IN EASTERN UPPER...THE BACKED FLOW OPENS UP MORE OF CHIPPEWA...BUT
SHOULD STILL KEEP THE STRONGEST BANDS WEST OF THE SAULT. BUT THINGS
ARE LOOKING CONSIDERABLY MORE FAVORABLE UP THERE...AND WILL INCREASE
WESTERN CHIP AND FAR NW MACK INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTH...WHERE MARINE MODIFICATION WILL BE SMALLER DUE TO THE
SHORTER FETCH...SOME PLACES (LIKE CAD) WILL LIKELY NOT ESCAPE THE
TEENS. (HARD TO BELIEVE IT/S ONLY MID-NOVEMBER.)
TUE NIGHT/WED...NOT MUCH REST FOR THE SNOW-WEARY. CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON WED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL ADVANCE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NORTHERN LOWER MI ON WED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SW TUE NIGHT...WITH MOISTENING
OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY 1-3 INCH ACCUMS OVER THE
TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER TUE EVENING. SYNOPTIC -SN MIGHT SNEAK INTO SW
SECTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE THAT WILL WAIT UNTIL
WED. BY THEN...A SOUTH 1000-850MB FETCH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE-
INDUCED NONSENSE AT BAY...OTHER THAN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF UPPER
MI (AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH). THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR PROBLEM...1-2
INCHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32. MIN TEMPS TEENS TO PERHAPS HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS (YIKES). MAX TEMPS 20S.
REST OF THE FORECAST...POST-CLIPPER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR WED
NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...AIDED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NW. THE SET-UP FOR HEAVY SNOW LOOKS BETTER IN EASTERN
UPPER IN THIS EVENT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER THERE VS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SOUTHER/CENTRAL LAKES.
REGARDLESS...LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN
BOTH PENINSULAS.
THOUGH THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST TO BREAK PATTERNS DOWN...ALL
MODELS HAVE THE CURRENT ONE FALL APART AFTER THIS LAST CLIPPER.
500MB FLOW BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE ZONAL...AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR
WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL AMPLIFY WARM ADVECTION...AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES BY SUNDAY. THIS ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TARGET OUR NW
LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES (PLN/TVC/MBL)THROUGH MONDAY...DROPPING
CONDITIONS TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. APN WILL REMAIN VFR
THRU MONDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH JUST A PASSING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
STRONG SURGE OF CAA AND INCREASINGLY SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS BY LATER TODAY RIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE GALE FORCE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME GALE GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LOWER COASTLINE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ018-020-023-025>028-031>033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ016-017-019-021-022.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ008-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JAZ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
353 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
AT 352 PM...SNOW HAD STARTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE OF IRON COUNTY. OUR SNOWFALL OBSERVER IN GILE
REPORTED 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL TODAY...BUT IT HAD JUST RECENTLY
STARTED TO INTENSIFY. FURTHER WEST...4 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN
IN THE IRON RIVER AREA...FROM PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THAT HAD SET
UP IN THAT AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS
GENERALLY SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH SHORE THERE WAS LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS DEFINITELY THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT A BIT TOO WESTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE WRF INDICATE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BECOME INTENSE DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF UP TO AN AMAZING 5 KM. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
AREA...FOR A TOTAL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. FURTHER WEST...WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY...WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY DROP
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW IN MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS EAST THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ALONG A DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
/AROUND 80 KTS AT H5/ AND WITH AROUND 24 HOURS OF COLD /850MB TEMPS
AS COLD AS -20 C/ NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS THERE MAY BE SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SKIES
WILL BE OVERCAST MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THURSDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE THURS/EARLY FRI RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
MID/LOW LEVELS FRI/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS RISE AS WARM AS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING FRI/SAT AND LIKELY ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH UP
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IF
IT TRENDS WESTWARD AS THE ECMWF IS HINTING THEN SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
AND CLOUDIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY LOWERING VIS. SNOWFALL
WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST
SITES...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT BRD AND HYR. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KTS...WHICH IS CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT A FEW
SPOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 2 17 6 20 / 30 0 40 20
INL 0 18 7 19 / 30 20 40 40
BRD 0 16 7 18 / 10 0 40 10
HYR 2 16 3 20 / 30 10 60 30
ASX 7 19 7 23 / 60 30 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ002.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 923 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Accumulating snow has ended across the area allowing the winter
weather advisory to expire at 9 pm. The band of accumulating snow
continues just south of the CWA which is being forced by strong
frontogenesis that will eventually shift southeast tonight. Some
snow may still occur along and south of a Fredericktown to Salem,
IL line on the northern periphery of this area of snow before
08Z per the HRRR, but any accumulation is expected to be minor.
Temperatures are falling into the teens over northeast Missouri,
and decent cold air advection should allow most of the area to
fall into the teens before sunrise.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Snow is clearing from the west to east this afternoon, and latest
short-range guidance shows that it should continue to push east at a
decent clip through early evening. RAP and HRRR have done a very
good job with this system (as they did with yesterday`s
precipitation) so am following them closely. The surface cold front
which currently looks to be along a line from near Pittsfield to
near the Lake of the Ozarks, will push slowly eastward tonight.
While accumulating snow should end across most of the area by
00-02Z, some flurries could linger along and east of the Mississippi
from St. Louis southward until the cold front finally pushes through
bringing drier low level air to the area. An additional 1-2 inches
of snow with locally higher amounts is still possible until the
snow ends...primarily on elevated surfaces. Based on current obs
and latest radar trends, will be dropping the advisory west and
north of the STL area, while continuing the advisory into the
early evening hours over southeast sections of the CWA.
Guidance appears to have a reasonable handle on overnight lows.
Leading edge of the first round of Arctic air (as defined by
single digits dewpoints) currently entering northwest sections of
the CWA, and this will be followed by a secondary surge of Arctic
air (now working into the mid-Missouri Valley) that will enter the
CWA during the predawn hours. In this situation guidance has a tendency
to be a bit too cool due to mixing and some clouds, but due to the
shear strength of cold air in this situation believe "thinking
cold" is the way to go.
Carney/Truett
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Monday-Wednesday
Deep and unseasonably strong UA trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS will mean more unseasonably cold November temperatures in
our area through midweek. Obviously, temperature specifics are
going to be the main forecast problem in the short term, and going
forecasts appear to have a fairly good handle on the expected
trends.
Secondary surge of Arctic air that enters the FA late tonight
will be a much colder airmass than any we`ve experienced during
this early taste of winter, and there is good agreement in the 12z
synoptic runs that 850mb temps of -18 to -20C will be common over
the mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. Low level RH progs
suggest quite a bit of low level cloudiness overspreading the area
on Monday in the wake of the secondary cold front, and this cloud
cover combined with the very cold airmass will almost certainly
mean highs only in the 20s for most of the CWA. Perhaps the
biggest question is Monday night. While airmass is extremely cold
for this time of year and there may be snow on the ground in some
locations over the southeast half of the CWA, the center of the
Arctic high is forecast to drop from the Plains into the Arklatex
region. The resultant pressure gradient in our area should mean
that westerly winds will persist throughout much of the night,
with this mixing keeping low temps from reaching record levels.
Normally in this situation would be worried about climo bias
causing guidance to be too warm, but due to the aforementioned
winds and mixing believe it may have a good handle on Monday
night temp trends at this point in time. See climate section for
more info on record lows/record low max temps for the next few
days/nights.
AMS moderation will begin on Tuesday as the center of the Arctic
high works its way in the the se U.S., with additional warming on
Wednesday due to warm advection ahead of next shortwave.
Precipitation threat over the next few days should be limited to a
few flurries with the arrival of the cold air and low clouds
tomorrow.
Thursday-Sunday
Another shot of cold air will settle into the region in the wake of
Wednesday`s shortwave. However, this next round of cold air will
not be nearly as strong as the Arctic airmass that invades the region
tomorrow and tomorrow night, and as a result it`s impact on late
week temps will not be nearly as dramatic.
Temperatures will moderate heading into next weekend as trof axis
works east and allows a more zonal flow regime to develop over the
nation`s heartland. Resultant low level warm advection/isentropic
ascent, combined with an approach of an upper level trof in the
southern branch of the westerlies, should mean a chance of
precipitation. Last several medium range runs, as well as latest
12z guidance, suggests ams will warm enough that the bulk of this
precip will be in liquid form.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Vfr conditions have returned to the taf sites, though some
lingering mvfr cigs around KCPS through 07z. Otherwise, northwest
winds to pickup by mid morning with gusts to near 25kts at times.
Will see sc develop on back side of system, so kept tempo mention
of mvfr cigs through the afternoon hours before scattering out
towards sunset. Winds will diminish towards sunset as well.
Specifics for KSTL:
Vfr conditions have returned to the metro area, though some
lingering mvfr cigs around KCPS through 07z. Otherwise, northwest
winds to pickup by 16z Monday with gusts to near 25kts at times.
Will see sc develop on back side of system, so kept tempo mention
of mvfr cigs through the afternoon hours before scattering out
towards sunset. Winds will diminish towards sunset as well.
Byrd
&&
.CLIMATE:
The following are record low maximums and record low minimums for
each of the next 3 days, which corresponds to the expected length
of the current cold spell and record snowfall for St. Louis and
Columbia for Sunday and Monday.
Date: 11/16 11/17 11/18
St. Louis
Low High: 29/1997 17/1880 25/1880
Low: 13/1959 6/1959 14/1932
Snowfall: 0.1/1997 1.0/1951
Columbia
Low High: 30/1932 23/1959 27/1903
Low: 8/1959 4/1959 8/1891
Snowfall: 4.8/1932 0.1/1989
Quincy
Low High: 28/1997 19/1959 24/1903
Low: 4/1959 3/1959 7/1903
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
908 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
THE BIG CHANGE THIS PERIOD WAS TO PULL THE POPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BAND IS WELL NORTHWEST OF STEUBEN CTY AT THIS TIME,
AND IF ANYTHING, THE BAND SHOULD TREND NORTHWARD.
ONEIDA COUNTY IS A TOUGHER CALL. FOR NOW, HAVE DELAYED THE EDGE OF
THE BAND TOUCHING NORTHERN ONEIDA. NOT CONVINCED POPS DON`T NEED
TO BE LOWERED HERE IS WELL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ASSESS.
120 PM UPDATE...
LK SNOWS WL CONTINUE PUMMEL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA TONIGHT. LK
SNOWS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HRS IN THE SAME LOCALES. SFC TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS LK HURON AND ACRS NRN LOWER MI WL SWING THRU
AFT MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT SNOWBAND SOUTH INTO EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY.
HWVR, HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND GETS IS THE QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OF HANDLING THE CURRENT SNOWBANDS
QUITE WELL, ENUF TO LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HANDLING OF SNOW
FCST FOR THE OVRNGT. HIRES NMM, ARW, RUC AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 12Z NAM SHOW INTENSE PORTION OF BAND DROPPING INTO EXTRM
NERN ONEIDA CNTY TONIGHT AFT 05Z. THIS BAND LOOKS TO HOLD PRETTY
STEADY-STATE THRU 12Z, POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT WAFFLE TO THE SOUTH
DRG THE OVRNGT.
THUS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENUF TO RAISE A LK EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NRN
ONEIDA CNTY FM 03Z TO 14Z WED WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMS IN A 12-HR PD
RANGING FM 4-7 INCHES. IF THIS BAND OVERPERFORMS THAN CUD EASILY SEE
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS FOR THE BOONVILLE AND WOODGATE AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY UNDER CLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL WV CURRENTLY DROPPING THRU NRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL APPCH
CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WL SERVE TO SHIFT BACK SWRLY FLOW
TWD THE SOUTH AND ALLOW LK SNOWS TO BCM DISRUPTED AND SHIFT NORTH BY
AFTN. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE MRNG HRS. WL
LKLY JUST SEE SLGT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES SKIRTING
THRU CNTRL NY AS WV SHEARS OUT INTO CANADA.
SYSTEM WL GIVE WRN SXNS OF CWA JUST A GLANCING BLOW TOMORROW NGT
WITH JUST MINOR ACCUMS OF SNOW. AS THE TROF LIFTS NORTH AND LOW-LVL
FLOW VEERS ARND TO THE SW AGAIN EXPECT LK SNOWS TO GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN THUR MRNG THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONT AND ARE XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. HEAVY LE BANDS SHD
CONT WELL NORTH OF RME AND SYR...WITH ONLY OCNL ROGUE FLURRIES MVG
THRU BRINGING BRIEF LWRG OF CIGS AND VSBYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LL STABILIZE A BIT...AND BECOME MORE
SWLY ON WED AHD OF A SHRT WV. PCPN FROM WV SHD BEGIN AFTER THE END
OF THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND
SYR.
SAT...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
643 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
120 PM UPDATE...
LK SNOWS WL CONTINUE PUMMEL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA TONIGHT. LK
SNOWS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HRS IN THE SAME LOCALES. SFC TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS LK HURON AND ACRS NRN LOWER MI WL SWING THRU
AFT MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT SNOWBAND SOUTH INTO EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY.
HWVR, HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND GETS IS THE QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OF HANDLING THE CURRENT SNOWBANDS
QUITE WELL, ENUF TO LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HANDLING OF SNOW
FCST FOR THE OVRNGT. HIRES NMM, ARW, RUC AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 12Z NAM SHOW INTENSE PORTION OF BAND DROPPING INTO EXTRM
NERN ONEIDA CNTY TONIGHT AFT 05Z. THIS BAND LOOKS TO HOLD PRETTY
STEADY-STATE THRU 12Z, POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT WAFFLE TO THE SOUTH
DRG THE OVRNGT.
THUS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENUF TO RAISE A LK EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NRN
ONEIDA CNTY FM 03Z TO 14Z WED WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMS IN A 12-HR PD
RANGING FM 4-7 INCHES. IF THIS BAND OVERPERFORMS THAN CUD EASILY SEE
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS FOR THE BOONVILLE AND WOODGATE AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY UNDER CLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL WV CURRENTLY DROPPING THRU NRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL APPCH
CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WL SERVE TO SHIFT BACK SWRLY FLOW
TWD THE SOUTH AND ALLOW LK SNOWS TO BCM DISRUPTED AND SHIFT NORTH BY
AFTN. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE MRNG HRS. WL
LKLY JUST SEE SLGT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES SKIRTING
THRU CNTRL NY AS WV SHEARS OUT INTO CANADA.
SYSTEM WL GIVE WRN SXNS OF CWA JUST A GLANCING BLOW TOMORROW NGT
WITH JUST MINOR ACCUMS OF SNOW. AS THE TROF LIFTS NORTH AND LOW-LVL
FLOW VEERS ARND TO THE SW AGAIN EXPECT LK SNOWS TO GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN THUR MRNG THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONT AND ARE XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. HEAVY LE BANDS SHD
CONT WELL NORTH OF RME AND SYR...WITH ONLY OCNL ROGUE FLURRIES MVG
THRU BRINGING BRIEF LWRG OF CIGS AND VSBYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LL STABILIZE A BIT...AND BECOME MORE
SWLY ON WED AHD OF A SHRT WV. PCPN FROM WV SHD BEGIN AFTER THE END
OF THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND
SYR.
SAT...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
958 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
SNOW...CHANGE TO A MIX...THEN RAIN BEFORE ENDING. A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 958 AM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATES HERE AT MID MORNING.
RADAR SHOWING LOTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS ARE IN THE 32-36F
RANGE, SO ROADS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE. STILL 22-24F UP ON
MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE, SO THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
NOT THAT FAR NORTH, SO SNOW IS STILL THE MAIN P-TYPE ABOVE ROUGHLY
800FT ELEVATION. BELOW THAT, IT`S RAIN/SNOW OR ALREADY TURNED OVER
TO RAIN. CAN`T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. ASOS IN SPRINGFIELD
HAS RECORDED 0.02" OF ICING.
FORECAST ISSUE IS TRYING TO TIME THE VARIOUS P-TYPE CHANGEOVER
TIMES. HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON THE 13Z RAP FOR GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 12Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWED THE ABOVE-FREEZING
AIR BETWEEN 800-700MB (5000-8000FT) AND THIS WAS PUSHING
NORTHWARD. BASED UPON THE RAP, THAT WARMER AIR SHOULD REACH THE
CANADIAN BORDER ABOUT 20Z. BY THAT POINT, PRETTY MUCH ALL OF US
WILL BE SEEING LIGHT RAIN, THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BY 16Z (11AM).
LOOKING UPSTREAM, WE STILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
THROUGH, THOUGH NOTHING LOOKS TOO TERRIBLY HEAVY. PERHAPS
0.04"/HOUR AT BEST. ADD THAT UP OVER THE AFTERNOON, AND WE ARE
LOOKING AT PERHAPS 1/4" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. COMBINE THAT WITH
WHEN IT WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WE AREN`T LOOKING AT
MUCH ACCUMULATION - ANOTHER 1/2" IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
I JUST WANT TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
AND ASSUMING MOTHER NATURE FOLLOWS OUR EXPECTATIONS, I WOULD THINK
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
`DACKS EARLY (JUST LEAVING THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING IN PLACE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THIS EVENING COLD AIR STREAMS BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINING WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN...STRONG FLOW ACROSS MILD LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CREATE PERSISTENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE UPGRADED OUR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO A WARNING...ALSO MOVED UP THE START TIME TO
00Z TUESDAY...ENDING 12Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG AND UNIFORM SSW FLOW OF
40+ KNOTS SHOULD SUSTAIN SIGNIFICANT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT. THERE IS
ALSO PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN THIS. ANALOGS
INDICATE THAT THIS COULD BE A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOUTHWEST FLOW SINGLE BAND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED. UPPER TROF CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIME INFLUENCES FLOW AND SET UP OF THE SNOW BAND. SURFACE WINDS
WILL ALSO BE STRONG WITH INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAKING
CONDITIONS EVEN WORSE WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO HIGH
CAPE...AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WELL ALIGNED
FLOW AND TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TEMPORARILY
SHUT DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROF PASSING AND FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SUNDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PRIMARY SURGE OF CP AIR TO AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING SOME 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW LATE AUTUMN NORMS.
THEREAFTER INCREASING SIGNS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S. BY LATER NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES UNDERCUT THE DEPARTING
ARCTIC AIRMASS.
DETAILS...IN THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO. FINAL BUT FAIRLY SHARP ARCTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE SNOWS SHIFTING SLOWLY N-S OVER TIME WITH
ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS THU/EARLY FRI. ELSEWHERE SCT FLURRIES/SHSN STILL A GOOD
BET...ESP IN THE NRN GREENS ON THU WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM
25 TO 35 ON THURSDAY...THEN COLDER IN THE 20S BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS/20S THU...THEN TEENS BY FRI.
BY SATURDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS
LAKE SNOWS COME TO AND END AND SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY. STILL
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS AND
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S DESPITE THE INCREASING SUN.
THEREAFTER THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY LATER NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND AS ARCTIC AIR LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY
INCREASINGLY MILD WEST/SOUTHWEST CONUS FLOW. THUS HAVE ADVERTISED
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK (30S) IN ALL
AREAS BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH EVEN MILDER AIR ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS CHANCES FOR RAIN SLOWLY INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MIVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN. PCPN
CHANGING TO A MIX THEN PLAIN RAIN SOUTH TO NORTH FOR KPBG AND VT
TERMINALS FROM 14-18Z. SNOW HANGS ON LONGER IN THE COLDER AIR AT
KMSS/KSLK AND MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW AT KMSS DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
WARMER AIR ALOFT. PCPN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z LEAVING GENERALLY BKN/OVC
MVFR/VFR CIGS. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR SHSN
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS
TODAY (NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS)...VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY 8 TO 15
KTS AND BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 00Z AS SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...SCT/BKN MAINLY VFR WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION
AT KSLK WHERE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
COME INTO PLAY WITH MVFR AND OCCNL IFR SHSN MORE PREVALENT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029-030-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES/SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
ISOLATED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ADDED ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC WITH A FRIGID DAY
EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND HAS CARVED OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NORTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER MINOR
SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE BISMARCK VICINITY BY 18Z TODAY. THE LATEST
FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MONTANA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE...QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR REINFORCES CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BUT THINK THE CENTRAL WILL ALSO CLOUD UP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
ARW AND NMM MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE FLURRIES WEST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS AS THEY ARE VERIFYING THE BEST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PUSH OF H7-H5 MOISTURE. THIS WILL
PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10F TO 15F WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO TO 3 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY
PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING AND THE LACK OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
837 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC WITH A FRIGID DAY
EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND HAS CARVED OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NORTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER MINOR
SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE BISMARCK VICINITY BY 18Z TODAY. THE LATEST
FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MONTANA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE...QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR REINFORCES CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BUT THINK THE CENTRAL WILL ALSO CLOUD UP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
ARW AND NMM MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE FLURRIES WEST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS AS THEY ARE VERIFYING THE BEST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PUSH OF H7-H5 MOISTURE. THIS WILL
PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10F TO 15F WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO TO 3 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY
PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING AND THE LACK OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
CIGS WILL TRANSITION FROM LOW VFR AT KISN/KDIK TO MVFR BETWEEN
15Z-16Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY 00Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL
VISIBILITY IMPACTS. LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC WITH A FRIGID DAY
EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND HAS CARVED OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NORTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER MINOR
SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE BISMARCK VICINITY BY 18Z TODAY. THE LATEST
FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MONTANA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE...QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR REINFORCES CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BUT THINK THE CENTRAL WILL ALSO CLOUD UP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
ARW AND NMM MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE FLURRIES WEST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS AS THEY ARE VERIFYING THE BEST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PUSH OF H7-H5 MOISTURE. THIS WILL
PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10F TO 15F WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO TO 3 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY
PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING AND THE LACK OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
CIGS WILL TRANSITION FROM LOW VFR AT KISN/KDIK TO MVFR BETWEEN
15Z-16Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY 00Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL
VISIBILITY IMPACTS. LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
335 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND HAS CARVED OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NORTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER MINOR
SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE BISMARCK VICINITY BY 18Z TODAY. THE LATEST
FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MONTANA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE...QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR REINFORCES CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BUT THINK THE CENTRAL WILL ALSO CLOUD UP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
ARW AND NMM MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE FLURRIES WEST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS AS THEY ARE VERIFYING THE BEST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PUSH OF H7-H5 MOISTURE. THIS WILL
PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10F TO 15F WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BETWEEN 3 BELOW ZERO TO 3 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY
PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING AND THE LACK OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AT KISN/KDIK TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. PERIODIC LOW VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT
WITH VFR AT KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
920 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...BRINGING VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE CENTERED ON PULLING THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW FURTHER
WEST WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RIGHT ON WESTERN CWA EDGE. IT WILL BLOW
THROUGH PRETTY QUICK THIS LATE MORNING AND I WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE
18Z SNOW FORECAST THE SAME - GENERALLY DRY OVER CWA WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT STUFF IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY AND HOCKING HILLS.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING ON WITH CURRENT FORECAST. PREV
DISC BELOW
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CORRELATION COEFFICIENT ON KILN RADAR
INDICATES THAT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE EXTENDS FROM ROBERTSON COUNTY
NORTHEAST TO HOCKING COUNTY. THIS TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING SO THAT ALL AREAS WILL SEE SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY
LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONE MORE SURGE
AFTER 12Z. THIS LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
WARM GROUND SEEMS TO BE DOING QUITE A JOB IN LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS
THUS FAR. THIS IS EVEN MORE SO ON PAVEMENT. A MAJORITY OF ROAD
TEMPERATURE SENSORS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT ROADS ARE STARTING TO GET COVERED. AND AS SNOW
CONTINUES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES FALL IN TANDEM WITH COLDER AIR
TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON
AREA ROADS.
BASED ON ACCUMULATIONS SEEN THUS FAR HAVE PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WARNING AREA IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BUT
WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW COMING. ADVISORY
AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. WEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS JUST ABOVE
RECORD BUT RECORD LOW HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME.
FLOW WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. READINGS WILL
REBOUND RELATIVELY SPEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN
REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF RESURGING ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BLEED BACK
INTO OUR AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IT SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS KEEP ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH ARCTIC AIR BACK NORTH INTO CANADA
WHILE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BE OF
A PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BUT IT APPEARS THAT
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN ALONG WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HEAVIEST BURST OF SNOW PULLING THROUGH MOST TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS
TIME WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY OF VSBYS WITH VFR EXPECTED ONCE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW PULLS OUT...THOUGH LOW MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. FLURRIES AND SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 00Z...THEN VFR CIGS
AFTER ABOUT 05Z.
OUTLOOK...SNOW SQUALLS ON TUESDAY COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 18
CVG...12 DEGREES...1880
CMH...10 DEGREES...1880
DAY...13 DEGREES...1959
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER 18
CVG...26 DEGREES...1951
CMH...26 DEGREES...1903
DAY...27 DEGREES...1951 AND 1903
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ063-064-
070>072-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ046-055-056-065-073-074-081-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ098-099.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-
059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JDR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
701 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...BRINGING VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CORRELATION COEFFICIENT ON KILN RADAR
INDICATES THAT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE EXTENDS FROM ROBERTSON COUNTY
NORTHEAST TO HOCKING COUNTY. THIS TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING SO THAT ALL AREAS WILL SEE SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY
LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONE MORE SURGE
AFTER 12Z. THIS LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
WARM GROUND SEEMS TO BE DOING QUITE A JOB IN LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS
THUS FAR. THIS IS EVEN MORE SO ON PAVEMENT. A MAJORITY OF ROAD
TEMPERATURE SENSORS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT ROADS ARE STARTING TO GET COVERED. AND AS SNOW
CONTINUES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES FALL IN TANDEM WITH COLDER AIR
TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON
AREA ROADS.
BASED ON ACCUMULATIONS SEEN THUS FAR HAVE PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WARNING AREA IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BUT
WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW COMING. ADVISORY
AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. WEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS JUST ABOVE
RECORD BUT RECORD LOW HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME.
FLOW WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. READINGS WILL
REBOUND RELATIVELY SPEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN
REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF RESURGING ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BLEED BACK
INTO OUR AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IT SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS KEEP ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH ARCTIC AIR BACK NORTH INTO CANADA
WHILE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BE OF
A PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BUT IT APPEARS THAT
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN ALONG WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HEAVIEST BURST OF SNOW PULLING THROUGH MOST TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS
TIME WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY OF VSBYS WITH VFR EXPECTED ONCE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW PULLS OUT...THOUGH LOW MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. FLURRIES AND SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 00Z...THEN VFR CIGS
AFTER ABOUT 05Z.
OUTLOOK...SNOW SQUALLS ON TUESDAY COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 18
CVG...12 DEGREES...1880
CMH...10 DEGREES...1880
DAY...13 DEGREES...1959
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER 18
CVG...26 DEGREES...1951
CMH...26 DEGREES...1903
DAY...27 DEGREES...1951 AND 1903
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ063-064-
070>072-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ046-055-056-065-073-074-081-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ098-099.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-
059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JDR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
528 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...BRINGING VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CORRELATION COEFFICIENT ON KILN RADAR
INDICATES THAT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE EXTENDS FROM ROBERTSON COUNTY
NORTHEAST TO HOCKING COUNTY. THIS TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING SO THAT ALL AREAS WILL SEE SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY
LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONE MORE SURGE
AFTER 12Z. THIS LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
WARM GROUND SEEMS TO BE DOING QUITE A JOB IN LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS
THUS FAR. THIS IS EVEN MORE SO ON PAVEMENT. A MAJORITY OF ROAD
TEMPERATURE SENSORS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT ROADS ARE STARTING TO GET COVERED. AND AS SNOW
CONTINUES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES FALL IN TANDEM WITH COLDER AIR
TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON
AREA ROADS.
BASED ON ACCUMULATIONS SEEN THUS FAR HAVE PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WARNING AREA IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BUT
WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW COMING. ADVISORY
AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. WEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS JUST ABOVE
RECORD BUT RECORD LOW HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME.
FLOW WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. READINGS WILL
REBOUND RELATIVELY SPEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN
REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF RESURGING ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BLEED BACK
INTO OUR AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IT SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS KEEP ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH ARCTIC AIR BACK NORTH INTO CANADA
WHILE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BE OF
A PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BUT IT APPEARS THAT
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN ALONG WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PCPN FROM THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM HAS YET TO REALLY AFFECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KDAY WHEN THE IFR
SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED. SRN TAFS HAVE SEEN THEIR CIGS ALREADY
FALL TO IFR WHILE THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS ARE STILL MVFR.
SNOW SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS SRN INDIANA/NRN KENTUCKY AND LIFT UP
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06-12Z. AT
KCMH/KLCK THE PCPN SHOULD STAY RAIN LONGER...PAST 06Z...BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TAFS AFT 06Z.
LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE BACK
EDGE...SO HELD ONTO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS UNTIL 13-15Z. AS THE PCPN
ENDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 20S. CAA ALOFT ON THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 18
CVG...12 DEGREES...1880
CMH...10 DEGREES...1880
DAY...13 DEGREES...1959
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER 18
CVG...26 DEGREES...1951
CMH...26 DEGREES...1903
DAY...27 DEGREES...1951 AND 1903
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ063-064-
070>072-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ046-055-056-065-073-074-081-082.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ098-099.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-
059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JDR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1208 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE WHAT MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF OUR AFTERNOON
FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI...SO WILL HANG ON TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY FREEZING AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...BUT NORTH WIND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM WARMING MUCH
MORE TODAY. STAY WARM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
CURRENTLY...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SLEET HAS BEEN MIXED IN AROUND THE
MEMPHIS AREA. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SINCE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD BECOME SLICK AHEAD OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST HRRR PULLS THESE BANDS NE AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY 7 OR 8 AM. MEANWHILE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THIS MORNING AND SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON
BRISK NW WINDS. EXPECT COLD AIR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM 925 MB RH FIELDS
DEPICT THIS WELL. SOME FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS
AROUND 30 NEAR THE KY/MO BORDERS TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
TEENS. WOULD GO COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT THERE IS SOME
GRADIENT LEFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT. THIS
OF COURSE WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH UPPER 20S NEAR PARIS TO MID 30S SOUTH. THIS IS PUSHING
35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S
TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH
WARMER SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH THOUGH PLEASANT SOUNDING IS STILL
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE COLD UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO START MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. BY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
ALL SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KJBR AND KMKL BY MID
AFTERNOON AS STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER 21Z AT KMKL. KEPT VSBYS P6SM AT KMKL FOR AFTER
21Z...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS. ELSEWHERE...A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS. VFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMEM AND KTUP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AT
ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TO 6 KTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-10 KTS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1037 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE WHAT MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF OUR AFTERNOON
FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI...SO WILL HANG ON TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY FREEZING AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...BUT NORTH WIND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM WARMING MUCH
MORE TODAY. STAY WARM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIND WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
CURRENTLY...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SLEET HAS BEEN MIXED IN AROUND THE
MEMPHIS AREA. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SINCE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD BECOME SLICK AHEAD OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST HRRR PULLS THESE BANDS NE AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY 7 OR 8 AM. MEANWHILE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THIS MORNING AND SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON
BRISK NW WINDS. EXPECT COLD AIR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM 925 MB RH FIELDS
DEPICT THIS WELL. SOME FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS
AROUND 30 NEAR THE KY/MO BORDERS TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
TEENS. WOULD GO COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT THERE IS SOME
GRADIENT LEFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT. THIS
OF COURSE WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH UPPER 20S NEAR PARIS TO MID 30S SOUTH. THIS IS PUSHING
35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S
TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH
WARMER SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH THOUGH PLEASANT SOUNDING IS STILL
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE COLD UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO START MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. BY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
SJM
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
BRIEF VFR WEATHER NOW SHIFTING INTO MEM AND JBR...AND WILL FOLLOW
SUITE THIS MORNING AT MKL AND TUP. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING A
MVFR DECK TO REFORM...WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO REDVELOPING.
SECOND CLEARING OF SKY COVER WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AT 12-14KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE CYCLE.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
714 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WIND WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
CURRENTLY...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SLEET HAS BEEN MIXED IN AROUND THE
MEMPHIS AREA. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SINCE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD BECOME SLICK AHEAD OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST HRRR PULLS THESE BANDS NE AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY 7 OR 8 AM. MEANWHILE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THIS MORNING AND SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON
BRISK NW WINDS. EXPECT COLD AIR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM 925 MB RH FIELDS
DEPICT THIS WELL. SOME FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS
AROUND 30 NEAR THE KY/MO BORDERS TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
TEENS. WOULD GO COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT THERE IS SOME
GRADIENT LEFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT. THIS
OF COURSE WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH UPPER 20S NEAR PARIS TO MID 30S SOUTH. THIS IS PUSHING
35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S
TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH
WARMER SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH THOUGH PLEASANT SOUNDING IS STILL
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE COLD UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO START MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. BY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
BRIEF VFR WEATHER NOW SHIFTING INTO MEM AND JBR...AND WILL FOLLOW
SUITE THIS MORNING AT MKL AND TUP. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING A
MVFR DECK TO REFORM...WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO REDVELOPING.
SECOND CLEARING OF SKY COVER WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AT 12-14KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE CYCLE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SLEET HAS BEEN MIXED IN AROUND THE
MEMPHIS AREA. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SINCE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD BECOME SLICK AHEAD OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST HRRR PULLS THESE BANDS NE AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY 7 OR 8 AM. MEANWHILE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THIS MORNING AND SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON
BRISK NW WINDS. EXPECT COLD AIR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM 925 MB RH FIELDS
DEPICT THIS WELL. SOME FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS
AROUND 30 NEAR THE KY/MO BORDERS TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
TEENS. WOULD GO COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT THERE IS SOME
GRADIENT LEFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT. THIS
OF COURSE WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH UPPER 20S NEAR PARIS TO MID 30S SOUTH. THIS IS PUSHING
35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S
TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH
WARMER SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH THOUGH PLEASANT SOUNDING IS STILL
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE COLD UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO START MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. BY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
BRIEF VFR WEATHER NOW SHIFTING INTO MEM AND JBR...AND WILL FOLLOW
SUITE THIS MORNING AT MKL AND TUP. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING A
MVFR DECK TO REFORM...WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO REDVELOPING.
SECOND CLEARING OF SKY COVER WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AT 12-14KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE CYCLE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-
RANDOLPH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
CRITTENDEN.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DESOTO.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LAKE-OBION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-SHELBY-
TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
441 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SLEET HAS BEEN MIXED IN AROUND THE
MEMPHIS AREA. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SINCE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD BECOME SLICK AHEAD OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST HRRR PULLS THESE BANDS NE AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY 7 OR 8 AM. MEANWHILE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THIS MORNING AND SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON
BRISK NW WINDS. EXPECT COLD AIR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM 925 MB RH FIELDS
DEPICT THIS WELL. SOME FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS
AROUND 30 NEAR THE KY/MO BORDERS TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
TEENS. WOULD GO COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT THERE IS SOME
GRADIENT LEFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT. THIS
OF COURSE WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH UPPER 20S NEAR PARIS TO MID 30S SOUTH. THIS IS PUSHING
35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S
TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH
WARMER SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH THOUGH PLEASANT SOUNDING IS STILL
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE COLD UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO START MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. BY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT UNDERWAY AT LATE EVENING FOR JBR AND
FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT...MEM AND MKL. PL POTENTIAL
APPEARS A BIT LESS AT MEM WITH RADAR RETURNS MORE INDICATIVE OF
SNOW ALOFT. NONETHELESS...CAN/T RULE OUT A VERY BRIEF PL EPISODE
AT MEM THROUGH 08Z. SN ACCUMULATION AT MEM SHOULD BE 1/2 INCH OR
LESS ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
VFR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON MONDAY...WITH VERY DRY REINFORCING
ARCTIC AIR FLOWING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-
RANDOLPH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
CRITTENDEN.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DESOTO.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LAKE-OBION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-SHELBY-
TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR AND SKC WITH LIGHT WINDS THRU 18/12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS THEME WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND BE LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES. SNOWPACK
COLOR CURVE ON IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NAM AND RUC INITIALIZED
THE SNOW COVER RATHER WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES...SO WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE SCALED BACK MAX TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY STUNT
RADIATIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME BITTER LOWS TO START
THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE SNOW COVER... WENT WITH THE MILD MET
NUMBERS AS THESE DRY AIRMASSES OFTEN WARM SURPRISINGLY FAST UNDER
FULL SUN WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STEADY SW WINDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS...HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE STILL 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF
US TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ONLY DROP TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LOW-
END CHANCE AT THIS TIME BUT DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 34 14 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 35 16 47 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 18 48 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 39 20 49 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 40 19 48 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 39 21 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 21 50 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 37 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 22 49 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 22 51 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1119 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
TODAY WITH HIGH CIRRUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. N WINDS 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS 22Z-00Z THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
UPDATE...
TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING.
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FREEZE
WARNING HAS EXPIRED. SENDING NEW ZONES TO REMOVE THE FREEZE
WARNING HEADLINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MVFR CIGS CLEARED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND VFR
SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME STRONG
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES WILL ADD SOME GUST POTENTIAL FOR DRT THROUGH
16Z AND FOR THE I-35 TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z. THE HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY AROUND 25 KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST BY
THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A STEADY FALL IN TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION AND LOW CLOUDS DECREASE. BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE...WE HAVE OPTED FOR
A FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WE EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE QUICKLY
BY SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE
LOWS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO FREEZING. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
INTACT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS WE COULD SEE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER WEAK AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-35. RAIN CHANCES EXPAND WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL AID IN SENDING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 27 53 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 23 53 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 27 54 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 25 52 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 30 53 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 22 52 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 24 52 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 26 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 27 52 34 60 / 0 0 - 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 27 53 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 30 54 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
943 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FREEZE
WARNING HAS EXPIRED. SENDING NEW ZONES TO REMOVE THE FREEZE
WARNING HEADLINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MVFR CIGS CLEARED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND VFR
SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME STRONG
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES WILL ADD SOME GUST POTENTIAL FOR DRT THROUGH
16Z AND FOR THE I-35 TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z. THE HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY AROUND 25 KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST BY
THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A STEADY FALL IN TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION AND LOW CLOUDS DECREASE. BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE...WE HAVE OPTED FOR
A FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WE EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE QUICKLY
BY SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE
LOWS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO FREEZING. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
INTACT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS WE COULD SEE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER WEAK AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-35. RAIN CHANCES EXPAND WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL AID IN SENDING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 27 53 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 23 53 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 27 54 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 25 52 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 30 53 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 22 52 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 24 52 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 26 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 27 52 34 60 / 0 0 - 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 27 53 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 30 54 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MVFR CIGS CLEARED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND VFR
SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME STRONG
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES WILL ADD SOME GUST POTENTIAL FOR DRT THROUGH
16Z AND FOR THE I-35 TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z. THE HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY AROUND 25 KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST BY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A STEADY FALL IN TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION AND LOW CLOUDS DECREASE. BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE...WE HAVE OPTED FOR
A FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WE EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE QUICKLY
BY SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE
LOWS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO FREEZING. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
INTACT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS WE COULD SEE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER WEAK AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-35. RAIN CHANCES EXPAND WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL AID IN SENDING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 27 53 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 23 53 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 27 54 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 25 52 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 30 53 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 22 52 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 24 52 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 26 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 27 52 34 60 / 0 0 - 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 27 53 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 30 54 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...KINNEY...MEDINA...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
527 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR AND SKC WITH LIGHT WINDS THRU 18/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS THEME WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND BE LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES. SNOWPACK
COLOR CURVE ON IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NAM AND RUC INITIALIZED
THE SNOW COVER RATHER WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES...SO WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE SCALED BACK MAX TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY STUNT
RADIATIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME BITTER LOWS TO START
THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE SNOW COVER... WENT WITH THE MILD MET
NUMBERS AS THESE DRY AIRMASSES OFTEN WARM SURPRISINGLY FAST UNDER
FULL SUN WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STEADY SW WINDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS...HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE STILL 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF
US TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ONLY DROP TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LOW-
END CHANCE AT THIS TIME BUT DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 34 14 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 35 16 47 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 18 48 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 39 20 49 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 40 19 48 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 39 21 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 21 50 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 37 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 22 49 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 22 51 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
422 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A STEADY FALL IN TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION AND LOW CLOUDS DECREASE. BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE...WE HAVE OPTED FOR
A FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WE EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE QUICKLY
BY SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE
LOWS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO FREEZING. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
INTACT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS WE COULD SEE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER WEAK AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-35. RAIN CHANCES EXPAND WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL AID IN SENDING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 27 53 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 23 53 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 27 54 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 25 52 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 30 53 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 22 52 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 24 52 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 26 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 27 52 34 60 / 0 0 - 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 27 53 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 30 54 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...KINNEY...MEDINA...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
412 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS THEME WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND BE LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES. SNOWPACK
COLOR CURVE ON IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NAM AND RUC INITIALIZED
THE SNOW COVER RATHER WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES...SO WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE SCALED BACK MAX TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY STUNT
RADIATIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME BITTER LOWS TO START
THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE SNOW COVER... WENT WITH THE MILD MET
NUMBERS AS THESE DRY AIRMASSES OFTEN WARM SURPRISINGLY FAST UNDER
FULL SUN WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STEADY SW WINDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS...HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE STILL 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF
US TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ONLY DROP TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LOW-
END CHANCE AT THIS TIME BUT DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 34 14 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 35 16 47 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 18 48 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 39 20 49 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 40 19 48 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 39 21 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 21 50 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 37 20 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 22 49 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 22 51 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AROUND TO
ABOUT 09Z MONDAY MAINLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. ACROSS KDRT...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MUCH
COLDER WEATHER IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND AT 8 PM THE
FREEZING LINE WAS JUST ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR EDWARDS
AND KERR COUNTY. A LARGE AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON THE HRRR HAD BEEN
SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BUT
HAS SINCE BACKED OFF. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIP TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...NEAR LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY...A BAND OF SNOWFALL EXTENDS
SOUTH NEAR ELDORADO AND WITH A CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS
WOULD QUICKLY CLIP LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS INTO WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE. ALL MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 750 MB THAT WOULD
LIKELY PREVENT SNOW THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DEEP SUB-
FREEZING LAYER BELOW 800 WOULD LEAD TO A SLEET/RAIN MIX OR ALL
SLEET. IF MODELS ARE OVERDOING THIS WARM LAYER...THEN BRIEF SNOW
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AM NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE HEAVY OR LAST
FOR A VERY LONG TIME SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MANY IMPACTS. SINCE IT
WILL BE SUCH A SHORT-TERM TYPE EVENT WILL MOST LIKELY HANDLE ANY
IMPACTS WITH AN SPS LATER THIS EVENING IF NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRYING IN THE LOW-LEVELS AFTER 6Z AND MUCH OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS WELL.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AND EXPECTED TO PUSH AWAY FROM OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
ALSO...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLEARING IS FORECAST
ACROSS AREA SITES MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERN FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IT STRETCHED
FROM WACO TO JUNCTION TO LANGTRY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND THE MAIN CHANGE IS THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS. THERE WAS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THESE FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD
OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT. WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITHIN THIS AREA
THERE WILL A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTER PRECIP IN PARTS OF BURNET AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AND THE BEST TIME WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT
9PM AND MIDNIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WITH THE
GROUND SO WARM WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WINTER PRECIP TO HAVE ANY
IMPACTS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING SO WE ONLY HAVE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT
AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. EXPECT THAT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE PARTS OF THE CWA THAT HAVE NOT YET HAD A FREEZE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AN OVER RUNNING
PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS STARTING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SEEMS LIKE TOO
LONG A PERIOD FOR RAIN EVEN THOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOW. TIME FRAME
SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 33 50 29 53 36 / 20 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 33 51 24 53 32 / 20 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 33 53 28 54 35 / 20 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 29 48 27 52 32 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 34 53 31 53 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 31 49 25 52 33 / 20 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 32 52 25 52 34 / 10 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 33 52 26 53 33 / 20 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 34 50 27 52 34 / 30 0 - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 35 53 29 53 38 / 10 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 36 53 29 54 37 / 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1238 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WINDS AND COLD WIND
CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST MONDAY...
BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
BE MOVING A COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH REDUCED TEMPERATURES AND EARLIER
ONSET OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. SNOW IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 3PM FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLIER RUN OF THE HRRR HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THE
MORNING...BLENDING IN THE 00Z GFS/NAM. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR
EVERYONE SEEING RAIN TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH FALL SUNDAY.
STILL A GOOD ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THIS FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A COUPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM DEPICTED THE COLDER AIR
BETTER AT 06Z AT 8H THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...SO LEANED TOWARD IT TEMP
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE DEEP MOISTURE EDGE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MTNS WHILE THE COLDER AIR STARTS TURNING RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER
TO SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY DUSK MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL BE DRYING OUT AS WINDS TURN WNW. TEMPS DESPITE THE
RAIN...OR REALLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT MAY BRING READINGS INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES IN THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MTNS HIGHS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING BY MIDDAY THEN DROPPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE MTNS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
FAST...WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPS ALOFT NOT BEING REALIZED
UNTIL LATE EVENING...SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ISSUES...AND WILL ADVERTISE THIS IN THE MTNS OF THE FAR WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS HERE LIES THE PROBLEM...WHERE IT RAINS...COMBINED WITH
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING AND SNIZZLE(SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE)
FOLLOWING...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE
DUSK. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED
TO GO WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS INTO THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS...BUT TO DELAY ANY HEADLINES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE MTN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND SE WV MTNS. STILL THINK THE
TEMPS FALLING FAST LATE TONIGHT MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT. THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH WITH 6 HR
PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7MB EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE NC
MTNS. CLOUDS MAY PREVENT IDEAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...BUT WHERE IT THE CLOUD/CLEARING LINE IS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE...THINK AN OCCASIONAL 50 MPH GUST WILL BE REALIZED. OUTSIDE
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT...HIGHLIGHT
WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT MORE
DATA COMING IN AND FURTHER COORDINATING WITH OTHER WFO OFFICES TO
SEE IF MORE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOUNTAINS...SOME SINGLE
DIGITS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST. WIND CHILLS BY
DAWN TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE TEENS IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST MONDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY AS THE 1033
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF CROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...NAM
AND HIRESW-ARW SHOWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TRAVEL EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE COLD WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST TO TEENS IN THE EAST.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20F COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM
THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THIS WAS NOT
ADVERTISED A FEW RUNS BACK...BUT GIVEN GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS AND A PREVAILING MEAN DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION
AND THUS WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY...THIS FINAL ARCTIC SURGE WILL NOT EVEN COME CLOSE TO THE
ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN ACROSS THE USUAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE ALLEGHANYS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED...WITH NO
MENTION OF POPS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE PARENT ARCTIC HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...SO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODEL TEMPS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT FEEL THE GFS MOS IS TOO
QUICK TO SPREAD WARMER RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION SAT...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS.
BIGGER QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TOWARD THE COAST SAT...THE LONG
AWAITED RETURN TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AS BROAD
MEAN TROUGHING RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING/MOISTENING WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED HIGHLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN. 12Z ECMWF IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 12Z GFS IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OUR REGION SUN AFTERNOON. SUPERBLEND POPS WERE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT-MON. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED PVA...AND AMOUNT
OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT ON BOARD WITH THESE HIGH
VALUES THIS FAR OUT...SO STOPPED AT A MORE REASONABLE 50 PERCENT
VALUE FOR NOW. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION...THAT
SEEMED REASONABLE FOR SURE. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL ENSUE SAT-
SUN...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...PERHAPS NOT TO THE DEGREE ADVERTISED BY
THE MEX MOS. THUS...HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SAT- SUN.
AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE REGION INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME INCREDIBLY
WARM/MOIST AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPREADING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH BY MON MORNING ON THE HEELS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE. PROGGED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ALONG
WITH EVIDENT SHEAR SUGGEST SOME -TSRA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TO SAY THE LEAST...EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY IF
LOWS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S MON MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST MONDAY...
HEAVY RAIN AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) BY
19Z...ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (BCB/ROA) AROUND 20Z-22Z...AND THE
PIEDMONT (LYH/DAN) BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA/LYH/DAN). ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MVFR
VISIBILITIES/CEILING FOR MOST AREAS...WESTERN SLOPES IFR WITH
SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN AS INVERSION LOWERS ALL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
ARCTIC BLAST OF AIR MAY LEAD TO WATER FREEZING ON
RUNWAYS/AIRPLANES THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO QUICKER
EVAPORATION OF THE WET SFCS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. NEXT SYSTEM
APPEARS TO ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
RECORD COOLEST HIGHS...TUESDAY NOV 18TH
BLACKSBURG VA...30 IN 2008
BLUEFIELD WV....27 IN 2008
DANVILLE VA.....38 IN 1959
ROANOKE VA......33 IN 1951
LEWISBURG WV....30 IN 2008
LYNCHBURG VA....32 IN 1924
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 120 AM EST MONDAY...
KFCX RADAR DOWN DUE TO TRANSMITTER FAULT. TECHNICIANS WILL WORK ON
RESTORING THIS BY NOON TODAY.
THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN TECHNICIANS WILL REPLACE THE SENSOR.
UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL
TOWER IS STAFFED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS/WP
CLIMATE...RCS
EQUIPMENT...WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1102 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WINDS AND COLD WIND
CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST MONDAY...
BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
BE MOVING A COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH REDUCED TEMPERATURES AND EARLIER
ONSET OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN SLOPES. SNOW IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 3PM FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLIER RUN OF THE HRRR HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THE
MORNING...BLENDING IN THE 00Z GFS/NAM. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR
EVERYONE SEEING RAIN TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH FALL SUNDAY.
STILL A GOOD ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THIS FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A COUPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM DEPICTED THE COLDER AIR
BETTER AT 06Z AT 8H THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...SO LEANED TOWARD IT TEMP
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE DEEP MOISTURE EDGE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MTNS WHILE THE COLDER AIR STARTS TURNING RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER
TO SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY DUSK MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL BE DRYING OUT AS WINDS TURN WNW. TEMPS DESPITE THE
RAIN...OR REALLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT MAY BRING READINGS INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES IN THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MTNS HIGHS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING BY MIDDAY THEN DROPPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE MTNS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
FAST...WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPS ALOFT NOT BEING REALIZED
UNTIL LATE EVENING...SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ISSUES...AND WILL ADVERTISE THIS IN THE MTNS OF THE FAR WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS HERE LIES THE PROBLEM...WHERE IT RAINS...COMBINED WITH
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING AND SNIZZLE(SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE)
FOLLOWING...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE
DUSK. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED
TO GO WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS INTO THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS...BUT TO DELAY ANY HEADLINES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE MTN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND SE WV MTNS. STILL THINK THE
TEMPS FALLING FAST LATE TONIGHT MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT. THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH WITH 6 HR
PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7MB EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE NC
MTNS. CLOUDS MAY PREVENT IDEAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...BUT WHERE IT THE CLOUD/CLEARING LINE IS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE...THINK AN OCCASIONAL 50 MPH GUST WILL BE REALIZED. OUTSIDE
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT...HIGHLIGHT
WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT MORE
DATA COMING IN AND FURTHER COORDINATING WITH OTHER WFO OFFICES TO
SEE IF MORE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOUNTAINS...SOME SINGLE
DIGITS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST. WIND CHILLS BY
DAWN TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE TEENS IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST MONDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY AS THE 1033
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF CROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...NAM
AND HIRESW-ARW SHOWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TRAVEL EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE COLD WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST TO TEENS IN THE EAST.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20F COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM
THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THIS WAS NOT
ADVERTISED A FEW RUNS BACK...BUT GIVEN GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS AND A PREVAILING MEAN DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION
AND THUS WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY...THIS FINAL ARCTIC SURGE WILL NOT EVEN COME CLOSE TO THE
ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN ACROSS THE USUAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE ALLEGHANYS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED...WITH NO
MENTION OF POPS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE PARENT ARCTIC HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...SO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODEL TEMPS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT FEEL THE GFS MOS IS TOO
QUICK TO SPREAD WARMER RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION SAT...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS.
BIGGER QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TOWARD THE COAST SAT...THE LONG
AWAITED RETURN TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AS BROAD
MEAN TROUGHING RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING/MOISTENING WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED HIGHLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN. 12Z ECMWF IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 12Z GFS IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OUR REGION SUN AFTERNOON. SUPERBLEND POPS WERE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT-MON. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED PVA...AND AMOUNT
OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT ON BOARD WITH THESE HIGH
VALUES THIS FAR OUT...SO STOPPED AT A MORE REASONABLE 50 PERCENT
VALUE FOR NOW. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION...THAT
SEEMED REASONABLE FOR SURE. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL ENSUE SAT-
SUN...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...PERHAPS NOT TO THE DEGREE ADVERTISED BY
THE MEX MOS. THUS...HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SAT- SUN.
AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE REGION INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME INCREDIBLY
WARM/MOIST AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPREADING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH BY MON MORNING ON THE HEELS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE. PROGGED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ALONG
WITH EVIDENT SHEAR SUGGEST SOME -TSRA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TO SAY THE LEAST...EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY IF
LOWS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S MON MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST MONDAY...
RAINFALL INCREASING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SPREAD
EAST THRU LATE MORNING. AIRPORTS WILL FLUCTUATE IN THE CIGS/VSBYS
WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN BRING CIGS UP AND VSBYS DOWN
WHILE LIGHTER RAINS ALLOW CIGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR.
STRONG LLJ TO INCREASE AT THE TAF START TIME THEN LIFT OUT BY
MIDDAY. INVERSION AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS...SUCH
THAT LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS 2KFT AGL WILL START RUNNING
INTO THE 30-45 KT JET.
LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO DIMINISH IN THE MTNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
COLDER AIR WORKING IN BY 21-00Z...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
GETTING GOING. FURTHER EAST THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD EXIT ROA/BCB BY
19-21Z...LYH/DAN 22Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WNW AND GUST TO
30 TO 40 MPH IN THE MTNS TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL STAY MVFR IN THE MTNS TONIGHT AND VFR EAST.
ARCTIC BLAST OF AIR MAY LEAD TO WATER FREEZING ON
RUNWAYS/AIRPLANES THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO QUICKER
EVAPORATION OF THE WET SFCS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEATHER TUESDAY-THURSDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
RECORD COOLEST HIGHS...TUESDAY NOV 18TH
BLACKSBURG VA...30 IN 2008
BLUEFIELD WV....27 IN 2008
DANVILLE VA.....38 IN 1959
ROANOKE VA......33 IN 1951
LEWISBURG WV....30 IN 2008
LYNCHBURG VA....32 IN 1924
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 120 AM EST MONDAY...
KFCX RADAR DOWN DUE TO TRANSMITTER FAULT. TECHNICIANS WILL WORK ON
RESTORING THIS BY NOON TODAY.
THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN TECHNICIANS WILL REPLACE THE SENSOR.
UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL
TOWER IS STAFFED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...SMR/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP
CLIMATE...RCS
EQUIPMENT...WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WINDS AND COLD WIND
CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
RADAR STARTING TO FILL IN OVER THE MTNS THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH UPDATE...EXCEPT WITH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE FAR SW VA AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLIER RUN OF THE HRRR HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THE
MORNING...BLENDING IN THE 00Z GFS/NAM. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR
EVERYONE SEEING RAIN TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH FALL SUNDAY.
STILL A GOOD ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THIS FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A COUPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM DEPICTED THE COLDER AIR
BETTER AT 06Z AT 8H THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...SO LEANED TOWARD IT TEMP
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE DEEP MOISTURE EDGE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MTNS WHILE THE COLDER AIR STARTS TURNING RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER
TO SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY DUSK MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL BE DRYING OUT AS WINDS TURN WNW. TEMPS DESPITE THE
RAIN...OR REALLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT MAY BRING READINGS INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES IN THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MTNS HIGHS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING BY MIDDAY THEN DROPPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE MTNS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
FAST...WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPS ALOFT NOT BEING REALIZED
UNTIL LATE EVENING...SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ISSUES...AND WILL ADVERTISE THIS IN THE MTNS OF THE FAR WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS HERE LIES THE PROBLEM...WHERE IT RAINS...COMBINED WITH
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING AND SNIZZLE(SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE)
FOLLOWING...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE
DUSK. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED
TO GO WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS INTO THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS...BUT TO DELAY ANY HEADLINES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE MTN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND SE WV MTNS. STILL THINK THE
TEMPS FALLING FAST LATE TONIGHT MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT. THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH WITH 6 HR
PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7MB EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE NC
MTNS. CLOUDS MAY PREVENT IDEAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...BUT WHERE IT THE CLOUD/CLEARING LINE IS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE...THINK AN OCCASIONAL 50 MPH GUST WILL BE REALIZED. OUTSIDE
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT...HIGHLIGHT
WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT MORE
DATA COMING IN AND FURTHER COORDINATING WITH OTHER WFO OFFICES TO
SEE IF MORE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOUNTAINS...SOME SINGLE
DIGITS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST. WIND CHILLS BY
DAWN TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE TEENS IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST MONDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY AS THE 1033
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF CROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...NAM
AND HIRESW-ARW SHOWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TRAVEL EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE COLD WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST TO TEENS IN THE EAST.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20F COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM
THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THIS WAS NOT
ADVERTISED A FEW RUNS BACK...BUT GIVEN GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS AND A PREVAILING MEAN DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION
AND THUS WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY...THIS FINAL ARCTIC SURGE WILL NOT EVEN COME CLOSE TO THE
ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN ACROSS THE USUAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE ALLEGHANYS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED...WITH NO
MENTION OF POPS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE PARENT ARCTIC HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...SO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODEL TEMPS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT FEEL THE GFS MOS IS TOO
QUICK TO SPREAD WARMER RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION SAT...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS.
BIGGER QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TOWARD THE COAST SAT...THE LONG
AWAITED RETURN TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AS BROAD
MEAN TROUGHING RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING/MOISTENING WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED HIGHLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN. 12Z ECMWF IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 12Z GFS IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OUR REGION SUN AFTERNOON. SUPERBLEND POPS WERE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT-MON. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED PVA...AND AMOUNT
OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT ON BOARD WITH THESE HIGH
VALUES THIS FAR OUT...SO STOPPED AT A MORE REASONABLE 50 PERCENT
VALUE FOR NOW. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION...THAT
SEEMED REASONABLE FOR SURE. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL ENSUE SAT-
SUN...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...PERHAPS NOT TO THE DEGREE ADVERTISED BY
THE MEX MOS. THUS...HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SAT- SUN.
AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE REGION INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME INCREDIBLY
WARM/MOIST AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPREADING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH BY MON MORNING ON THE HEELS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE. PROGGED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ALONG
WITH EVIDENT SHEAR SUGGEST SOME -TSRA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TO SAY THE LEAST...EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY IF
LOWS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S MON MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST MONDAY...
RAINFALL INCREASING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SPREAD
EAST THRU LATE MORNING. AIRPORTS WILL FLUCTUATE IN THE CIGS/VSBYS
WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN BRING CIGS UP AND VSBYS DOWN
WHILE LIGHTER RAINS ALLOW CIGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR.
STRONG LLJ TO INCREASE AT THE TAF START TIME THEN LIFT OUT BY
MIDDAY. INVERSION AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS...SUCH
THAT LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS 2KFT AGL WILL START RUNNING
INTO THE 30-45 KT JET.
LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO DIMINISH IN THE MTNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
COLDER AIR WORKING IN BY 21-00Z...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
GETTING GOING. FURTHER EAST THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD EXIT ROA/BCB BY
19-21Z...LYH/DAN 22Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WNW AND GUST TO
30 TO 40 MPH IN THE MTNS TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL STAY MVFR IN THE MTNS TONIGHT AND VFR EAST.
ARCTIC BLAST OF AIR MAY LEAD TO WATER FREEZING ON
RUNWAYS/AIRPLANES THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO QUICKER
EVAPORATION OF THE WET SFCS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEATHER TUESDAY-THURSDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
RECORD COOLEST HIGHS...TUESDAY NOV 18TH
BLACKSBURG VA...30 IN 2008
BLUEFIELD WV....27 IN 2008
DANVILLE VA.....38 IN 1959
ROANOKE VA......33 IN 1951
LEWISBURG WV....30 IN 2008
LYNCHBURG VA....32 IN 1924
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 120 AM EST MONDAY...
KFCX RADAR DOWN DUE TO TRANSMITTER FAULT. TECHNICIANS WILL WORK ON
RESTORING THIS BY NOON TODAY.
THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN TECHNICIANS WILL REPLACE THE SENSOR.
UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL
TOWER IS STAFFED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP
CLIMATE...RCS
EQUIPMENT...WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
405 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WINDS AND COLD WIND
CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...
EARLIER RUN OF THE HRRR HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THE
MORNING...BLENDING IN THE 00Z GFS/NAM. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR
EVERYONE SEEING RAIN TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH FALL SUNDAY.
STILL A GOOD ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THIS FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A COUPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM DEPICTED THE COLDER AIR
BETTER AT 06Z AT 8H THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...SO LEANED TOWARD IT TEMP
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE DEEP MOISTURE EDGE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MTNS WHILE THE COLDER AIR STARTS TURNING RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER
TO SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY DUSK MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL BE DRYING OUT AS WINDS TURN WNW. TEMPS DESPITE THE
RAIN...OR REALLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT MAY BRING READINGS INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES IN THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MTNS HIGHS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING BY MIDDAY THEN DROPPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE MTNS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
FAST...WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPS ALOFT NOT BEING REALIZED
UNTIL LATE EVENING...SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ISSUES...AND WILL ADVERTISE THIS IN THE MTNS OF THE FAR WEST THIS
EVENING. THIS HERE LIES THE PROBLEM...WHERE IT RAINS...COMBINED WITH
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING AND SNIZZLE(SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE)
FOLLOWING...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE
DUSK. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED
TO GO WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS INTO THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS...BUT TO DELAY ANY HEADLINES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE MTN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND SE WV MTNS. STILL THINK THE
TEMPS FALLING FAST LATE TONIGHT MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT. THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH WITH 6 HR
PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7MB EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE NC
MTNS. CLOUDS MAY PREVENT IDEAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...BUT WHERE IT THE CLOUD/CLEARING LINE IS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE...THINK AN OCCASIONAL 50 MPH GUST WILL BE REALIZED. OUTSIDE
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT...HIGHLIGHT
WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT MORE
DATA COMING IN AND FURTHER COORDINATING WITH OTHER WFO OFFICES TO
SEE IF MORE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOUNTAINS...SOME SINGLE
DIGITS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST. WIND CHILLS BY
DAWN TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE TEENS IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST MONDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY AS THE 1033
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF CROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...NAM
AND HIRESW-ARW SHOWED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TRAVEL EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE COLD WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST TO TEENS IN THE EAST.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20F COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM
THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THIS WAS NOT
ADVERTISED A FEW RUNS BACK...BUT GIVEN GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS AND A PREVAILING MEAN DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION
AND THUS WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY...THIS FINAL ARCTIC SURGE WILL NOT EVEN COME CLOSE TO THE
ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN ACROSS THE USUAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE ALLEGHANYS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED...WITH NO
MENTION OF POPS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE PARENT ARCTIC HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...SO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODEL TEMPS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT FEEL THE GFS MOS IS TOO
QUICK TO SPREAD WARMER RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION SAT...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS.
BIGGER QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TOWARD THE COAST SAT...THE LONG
AWAITED RETURN TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AS BROAD
MEAN TROUGHING RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING/MOISTENING WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED HIGHLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN. 12Z ECMWF IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 12Z GFS IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OUR REGION SUN AFTERNOON. SUPERBLEND POPS WERE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT-MON. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED PVA...AND AMOUNT
OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT ON BOARD WITH THESE HIGH
VALUES THIS FAR OUT...SO STOPPED AT A MORE REASONABLE 50 PERCENT
VALUE FOR NOW. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION...THAT
SEEMED REASONABLE FOR SURE. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL ENSUE SAT-
SUN...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...PERHAPS NOT TO THE DEGREE ADVERTISED BY
THE MEX MOS. THUS...HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SAT- SUN.
AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE REGION INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME INCREDIBLY
WARM/MOIST AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPREADING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH BY MON MORNING ON THE HEELS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE. PROGGED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ALONG
WITH EVIDENT SHEAR SUGGEST SOME -TSRA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TO SAY THE LEAST...EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY IF
LOWS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S MON MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SUNDAY...
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 15Z/10AM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR
AS THIS RAIN MOVES IN. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE RAIN.
SLEET...WHICH IS REPORTED AS U P...UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION...BY AWOS
AND ASOS SENSORS IS FALLING AT KLWB. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR IS
GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE SLEET AT KLWB WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MORNING THEN WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS FROM THE WEST. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND UPSLOPE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR WEATHER IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KNOTS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR THE TAFS. WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT UP 30 KNOTS
BY EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
TUESDAY-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
RECORD COOLEST HIGHS...TUESDAY NOV 18TH
BLACKSBURG VA...30 IN 2008
BLUEFIELD WV....27 IN 2008
DANVILLE VA.....38 IN 1959
ROANOKE VA......33 IN 1951
LEWISBURG WV....30 IN 2008
LYNCHBURG VA....32 IN 1924
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 120 AM EST MONDAY...
KFCX RADAR DOWN DUE TO TRANSMITTER FAULT. TECHNICIANS WILL WORK ON
RESTORING THIS BY NOON TODAY.
THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN TECHNICIANS WILL REPLACE THE SENSOR.
UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL
TOWER IS STAFFED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WERT
CLIMATE...RCS
EQUIPMENT...WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
128 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT
STATES ON MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP
EAST THOUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EST MONDAY...
RADAR BEFORE GOING DOWN SHOWED LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN IN THE
CWA...WITH NARROW AXIS FROM THE NC FOOTHILLS INTO THE VA PIEDMONT.
THE LATEST HRRR WAS HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THINK OVERALL
A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OR NO PRECIP WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH DAWN
OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN FROM SCNTL
KY SOUTH INTO THE NRN AL/GA SPREADING NE TO MOVE INTO THE WEST BY
4AM...REACHING THE PIEDMONT AROUND 8 AM. 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED
DEEP INVERSION THE LOW LVLS WHICH WITH STRONG LLJ SHOULD KEEP
WINDS ABOVE MOST LOCATIONS FROM MIXING DOWN. STILL HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE MTN EMPIRE INTO THE NC/TN BORDER AREA COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH BY DAWN. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS PER LATEST
OBS. LIMITED TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THE BATH COUNTY AREA SHOULD
WARM AS MODERATE RAIN SHIELD MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP ISSUES THERE.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GULF COAST STATES...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID APPALACHIAN
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING AND DEEPENING AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN 850-600 MILLIBAR
LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH APPROACH OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
STRONG UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TO RESULT IN BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS FIELDS THROUGH INCREASINGLY SATURATED MID AND LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
BEST AREA OF FORCING...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION
RIDES UP ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH THEN SWEEPS EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY LATER AFTERNOON. STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO
BE REPLACED BY SHOWERY UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONSET OF VERY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ONSET OF
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID END OF RAIN FROM WEST TO
EAST BEFORE NIGHTFALL IN MOST AREAS...TO BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
WARRANT ADVISORY LEVEL CONSIDERATION...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS AT THE PRESENT
TIME...SO WILL NOT YET BE POSTED. REGARDLESS...MODERATE GUSTY WINDS
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE DOWN WIND CHILLS INTO THE
TEENS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND SOME PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY NIGHTFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD
EXPERIENCE A TEMPERATURE BUST ON MONDAY IF THE COOL WEDGE ERODES
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FORECAST BUST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH A LATE FRONTAL ARRIVAL IN
THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
FRONT CAN SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY WILL
TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE WITH A POTENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS SPILLING INTO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY 24-36 HOUR PERIOD STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 10F-20F
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ABOVE ZERO
SINGLE DIGITS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. NOT MUCH OF A WARM-UP TUESDAY AS
THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT MAKE THE FREEZING MARK. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR MID NOVEMBER ALSO EXPECTED IN THE EAST...ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 20S WITH TUESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. AS THE WIND RELAXES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE EAST WILL
WARM INTO THE 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL BE
LESS OF AN ISSUE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST TO TEENS IN THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S WEST TO 40S EAST. DESPITE THE MILD TEMPERATURES ENTER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL RUN 20F COLDER THAN
NORMAL.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS NOT IDEAL. WESTERN
GREENBRIER COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING...1-2
INCHES AROUND BLUEFIELD. OUTSIDE OF WESTERN SLOPES...A DUSTING TO A
HALF OF AN INCH IF SNOW BANDS FORM. MORE THAN NOT...24-36 HOURS OF
MOUNTAIN FLURRIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
MANY CHANGES TO CONSIDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
FIRST...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SHOWING YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WAS NOT ADVERTISED A FEW RUNS BACK...BUT GIVEN
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS AND A PREVAILING MEAN DEEP
MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...THIS
APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AND THUS WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...THIS FINAL ARCTIC
SURGE WILL NOT EVEN COME CLOSE TO THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR UPSLOPE
-SHSN ACROSS THE USUAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALLEGHANYS
SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED...WITH NO MENTION OF POPS
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE PARENT ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODEL TEMPS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT FEEL THE GFS MOS IS TOO
QUICK TO SPREAD WARMER RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION SAT...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS.
BIGGER QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TOWARD THE COAST SAT...THE LONG
AWAITED RETURN TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AS BROAD
MEAN TROUGHING RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING/MOISTENING WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED HIGHLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN. 12Z ECMWF IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 12Z GFS IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OUR REGION SUN AFTERNOON. SUPERBLEND POPS WERE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT-MON. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED PVA...AND AMOUNT
OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT ON BOARD WITH THESE HIGH
VALUES THIS FAR OUT...SO STOPPED AT A MORE REASONABLE 50 PERCENT
VALUE FOR NOW. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION...THAT
SEEMED REASONABLE FOR SURE. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL ENSUE SAT-
SUN...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...PERHAPS NOT TO THE DEGREE ADVERTISED BY
THE MEX MOS. THUS...HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SAT- SUN.
AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE REGION INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME INCREDIBLY
WARM/MOIST AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPREADING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH BY MON MORNING ON THE HEELS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE. PROGGED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ALONG
WITH EVIDENT SHEAR SUGGEST SOME -TSRA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TO SAY THE LEAST...EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY IF
LOWS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S MON MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SUNDAY...
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 15Z/10AM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR
AS THIS RAIN MOVES IN. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE RAIN.
SLEET...WHICH IS REPORTED AS U P...UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION...BY AWOS
AND ASOS SENSORS IS FALLING AT KLWB. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR IS
GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE SLEET AT KLWB WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MORNING THEN WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS FROM THE WEST. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND UPSLOPE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR WEATHER IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KNOTS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR THE TAFS. WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT UP 30 KNOTS
BY EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
TUESDAY-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 105 PM EST SUNDAY...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE-HALF /0.50/ INCH OVER THE NORTHERN RIVER
BASINS UP TO ABOUT ONE /1.25/ INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN RIVER
BASINS BY THE TIME IT ENDS LATE MONDAY.
THE RAINFALL IS NEEDED AS PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER TO DATE HAS
BEEN VERY SCANTY. MOST OF THE COOP NETWORK SITES HAVE RECEIVED
UNDER 0.50 INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND SOME LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT IN OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS ALREADY IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY ON THE WEEKLY U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR...WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 60 DAYS.
THE DRY PERIOD IS REFLECTED IN DECLINING STREAM FLOWS AS
MONITORED BY THE USGS STREAM GAGING NETWORK AND ALSO BY FALLING
RESERVOIR STORAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
RECORD COOLEST HIGHS...TUESDAY NOV 18TH
BLACKSBURG VA...30 IN 2008
BLUEFIELD WV....27 IN 2008
DANVILLE VA.....38 IN 1959
ROANOKE VA......33 IN 1951
LEWISBURG WV....30 IN 2008
LYNCHBURG VA....32 IN 1924
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 120 AM EST MONDAY...
KFCX RADAR DOWN DUE TO TRANSMITTER FAULT. TECHNICIANS WILL WORK ON
RESTORING THIS BY NOON TODAY.
THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN TECHNICIANS WILL REPLACE THE SENSOR.
UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL
TOWER IS STAFFED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WERT
HYDROLOGY...PC/WERT/WP
CLIMATE...RCS
EQUIPMENT...WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1151 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST
STATES TONIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SWEEP EAST THOUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF COAST STATES...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID APPALACHIAN
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING AND DEEPENING AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN 850-600 MILLIBAR
LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH APPROACH OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
STRONG UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TO RESULT IN BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS FIELDS THROUGH INCREASINGLY SATURATED MID AND LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN...OR WAS IN
THE PROCESS OF BEGINNING FROM THE NW NC MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VA...WEST INTO THE SE WV COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY/DURING THE EARLY-
MID EVENING HOURS.
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHEN IT BEGINS...WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN LIKELY TO FLATLINE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND INCREASES OVER INVERSION LAYER. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS EVEN POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DESPITE WET-BULB INFLUENCES.
STRENGTH OF INVERSION LIKELY TO BE OF SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO
LIMIT/HINDER WINDS UNDER DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM PENETRATING DOWN TO
SURFACE...EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BEST AREA OF FORCING...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND DEEPER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION
RIDES UP ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH THEN SWEEPS EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY LATER AFTERNOON. STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO
BE REPLACED BY SHOWERY UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONSET OF VERY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ONSET OF
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID END OF RAIN FROM WEST TO
EAST BEFORE NIGHTFALL IN MOST AREAS...TO BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
WARRANT ADVISORY LEVEL CONSIDERATION...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS AT THE PRESENT
TIME...SO WILL NOT YET BE POSTED. REGARDLESS...MODERATE GUSTY WINDS
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE DOWN WIND CHILLS INTO THE
TEENS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND SOME PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY NIGHTFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD
EXPERIENCE A TEMPERATURE BUST ON MONDAY IF THE COOL WEDGE ERODES
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FORECAST BUST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH A LATE FRONTAL ARRIVAL IN
THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
FRONT CAN SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY WILL
TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE WITH A POTENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS SPILLING INTO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY 24-36 HOUR PERIOD STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 10F-20F
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ABOVE ZERO
SINGLE DIGITS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. NOT MUCH OF A WARM-UP TUESDAY AS
THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT MAKE THE FREEZING MARK. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR MID NOVEMBER ALSO EXPECTED IN THE EAST...ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 20S WITH TUESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. AS THE WIND RELAXES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE EAST WILL
WARM INTO THE 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL BE
LESS OF AN ISSUE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE COLD
WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST TO TEENS IN THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S WEST TO 40S EAST. DESPITE THE MILD TEMPERATURES ENTER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL RUN 20F COLDER THAN
NORMAL.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS NOT IDEAL. WESTERN
GREENBRIER COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING...1-2
INCHES AROUND BLUEFIELD. OUTSIDE OF WESTERN SLOPES...A DUSTING TO A
HALF OF AN INCH IF SNOW BANDS FORM. MORE THAN NOT...24-36 HOURS OF
MOUNTAIN FLURRIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
MANY CHANGES TO CONSIDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
FIRST...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SHOWING YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WAS NOT ADVERTISED A FEW RUNS BACK...BUT GIVEN
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS AND A PREVAILING MEAN DEEP
MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...THIS
APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AND THUS WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...THIS FINAL ARCTIC
SURGE WILL NOT EVEN COME CLOSE TO THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR UPSLOPE
-SHSN ACROSS THE USUAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALLEGHANYS
SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED...WITH NO MENTION OF POPS
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THE PARENT ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODEL TEMPS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT FEEL THE GFS MOS IS TOO
QUICK TO SPREAD WARMER RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION SAT...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS.
BIGGER QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TOWARD THE COAST SAT...THE LONG
AWAITED RETURN TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AS BROAD
MEAN TROUGHING RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING/MOISTENING WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED HIGHLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN. 12Z ECMWF IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 12Z GFS IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OUR REGION SUN AFTERNOON. SUPERBLEND POPS WERE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT-MON. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED PVA...AND AMOUNT
OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT ON BOARD WITH THESE HIGH
VALUES THIS FAR OUT...SO STOPPED AT A MORE REASONABLE 50 PERCENT
VALUE FOR NOW. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION...THAT
SEEMED REASONABLE FOR SURE. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL ENSUE SAT-
SUN...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...PERHAPS NOT TO THE DEGREE ADVERTISED BY
THE MEX MOS. THUS...HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SAT- SUN.
AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR THE REGION INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME INCREDIBLY
WARM/MOIST AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPREADING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH BY MON MORNING ON THE HEELS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE. PROGGED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ALONG
WITH EVIDENT SHEAR SUGGEST SOME -TSRA MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TO SAY THE LEAST...EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY IF
LOWS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S MON MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SUNDAY...
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 15Z/10AM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR
AS THIS RAIN MOVES IN. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE RAIN.
SLEET...WHICH IS REPORTED AS U P...UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION...BY AWOS
AND ASOS SENSORS IS FALLING AT KLWB. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR IS
GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE SLEET AT KLWB WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MORNING THEN WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS FROM THE WEST. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND UPSLOPE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR WEATHER IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KNOTS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR THE TAFS. WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT UP 30 KNOTS
BY EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
TUESDAY-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 105 PM EST SUNDAY...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE-HALF /0.50/ INCH OVER THE NORTHERN RIVER
BASINS UP TO ABOUT ONE /1.25/ INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN RIVER
BASINS BY THE TIME IT ENDS LATE MONDAY.
THE RAINFALL IS NEEDED AS PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER TO DATE HAS
BEEN VERY SCANTY. MOST OF THE COOP NETWORK SITES HAVE RECEIVED
UNDER 0.50 INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND SOME LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT IN OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS ALREADY IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY ON THE WEEKLY U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR...WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 60 DAYS.
THE DRY PERIOD IS REFLECTED IN DECLINING STREAM FLOWS AS
MONITORED BY THE USGS STREAM GAGING NETWORK AND ALSO BY FALLING
RESERVOIR STORAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
RECORD COOLEST HIGHS...TUESDAY NOV 18TH
BLACKSBURG VA...30 IN 2008
BLUEFIELD WV....27 IN 2008
DANVILLE VA.....38 IN 1959
ROANOKE VA......33 IN 1951
LEWISBURG WV....30 IN 2008
LYNCHBURG VA....32 IN 1924
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN TECHNICIANS WILL REPLACE THE SENSOR.
UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL
TOWER IS STAFFED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WERT
HYDROLOGY...PC/WERT/WP
CLIMATE...RCS
EQUIPMENT...WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN UNSEASONABLE COLD
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. 17.12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 22.00Z (FRIDAY NIGHT)...DIVERGING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A STRONG EAST-PACIFIC
WAVE AS IT EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS
OF ACCUMULATION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS FULLY IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY ONLY REACHING THE MID TEENS...EXPECT LOWS TO EASILY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND EVEN FAVORED COLD SPOTS
A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. 17.18Z RAP SHOWS 0.5 KM WINDS OVERNIGHT
AROUND 30 KTS WITH A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO THIS
LEVEL...SO EXPECT A BREEZY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BY TUESDAY MORNING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
DRY AND BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 TO 600 HPA FORCING INCREASES
ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF OMEGA
CENTERED ALONG THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...EXPECT A QUICK ONE INCH
OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...KEEPING DAILY TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS IOWA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...17.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THUS LESS ROBUST WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...DEPICTS 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY AS IT DRAGS A SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION
PRECIP ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH MODELS WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIP TO INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT STILL
LOTS OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
STRONG/COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOTICED KRST HAS SLIPPED DOWN TO 4SM
THIS PAST HOUR. CALL TO THE TOWER INDICATED THAT SNOW WAS MAINLY
DRIFTING RIGHT NOW...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE BLSN DOWN TO 1SM AT TIMES. KLSE..BEING A BIT
MORE SHELTERED SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LOCALIZED DRIFTING OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ALSO PRODUCING MVFR CLOUD COVER
WITH SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUD CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES
TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PLAN ON
GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE GOING INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
087-094-095.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
009-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED TO REALLY CLEAR SKIES OUT BACK
IN THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF WESTERN MN. THIS CLEARING AREA LOOKS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO ADJUST
SKY COVER DOWNWARDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
IN THE MORNING AS THE SUN DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. 16.12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
19.12Z...DIVERGING SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SHORT-WAVES MOVING THROUGH PARENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
16.20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ARCTIC/COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM NEAR ROSEAU MN TO ABERDEEN SD. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
WITH IT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AMOUNTING TO NO MORE THAN AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND STRONG NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS WAKE.
SURFACE OBS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ND SHOWING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND ALTHOUGH THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY
SOMEWHAT AS IT DROPS SOUTH...16.19Z RAP BRINGS A NOSE OF 35 TO 40
KTS AT 0.5 KM INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A DEEPENING WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL
FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...
REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FROM 17.12Z TO 18.00Z
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
POOR VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
850 HPA TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -18 C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
18.12Z (TUESDAY MORNING). THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST MORNING
SO FAR THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO WITH FAVORED COLD SPOTS DROPPING BELOW ZERO. COMBINED
WITH WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
SHOULD SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS MONDAY/S SNOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TEENS.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MOST SNOW WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND
EAST NEAREST THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND HIGHEST MOISTURE...
ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS FULLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS AND 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD RIVAL THOSE FROM TUESDAY MORNING.
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS BY
THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 16.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST WITH ITS
PRECIP THAN THE GFS...SO FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH
WITH 20 TO 30 POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP GIVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AROUND THE TAF SITES AS WELL AS IN
THE DAKOTAS AND MN ARE IN THE VFR RANGE...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE TAF SITES. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MVFR STRATUS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN MN. ANTICIPATING
CONDITIONS TO STAY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AN MVFR DECK
DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE. BY 14Z...SOME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
GET GOING...AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KT...BLOWING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT RST.
THAT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR AT TIMES BUT PINNING WHEN IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BOTH IMPROVE LATE IN
THE DAY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE KEPT MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TOO WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDS DO LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...
THOUGH...AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE TAF SITES WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ086-
087-094-095.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008-
009-018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE REACHES THE BEACHES OF SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WITH RECORD LOWS
LIKELY...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO
THE BEACHES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TINY AREA FROM
HILTON HEAD TO TYBEE ISLAND REMAINING A DEG OR TWO ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK AS OF 19/08Z. EVEN MERIDIAN/SAPELO ISLAND AND SAINT
SIMMONS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING--HIGHLY UNUSUAL ANY TIME
OF YEAR...MUCH LESS THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER. SURPRISINGLY...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF RECOUPLING OFF AND ON OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOTED ON VARIOUS RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE
MUST BE JUST ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING INDUCED BY 15-20 KT OF WIND
ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO INDUCE TRANSIENT POCKETS OF
RECOUPLING...WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THIS HAS HAD
SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THERMAL DECLINES SINCE LATE
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD REVERSE ITSELF CLOSER TO SUNRISE AS
THE CENTER OF ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE DRAWS CLOSER. ANY RELAXATION OF
THE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN PLACE. WILL MAINTAIN LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20/NEAR 30 AT THE BEACHES. THE
RECORD LOW FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND THE
SAVANNAH AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SOON.
NOTE...PRELIMINARY DATA SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM A FEW WEEKS EARLY SINCE A MULTI-HOUR
FREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. THIS
DECISION WILL BE MADE BY THE INCOMING DAY SHIFT AFTER FINAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE RECEIVED AND EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. A
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IF THE DECISION TO
END THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM EARLY IS MADE.
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A LARGE BATCH
OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT 250
HPA JET STREAK...WHICH STRETCHES NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH...SO SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. DESPITE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...FULL INSOLATION AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES...HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY END UP NEAR
OR MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
TUESDAY. THIS DUE IN PART TO A MUCH COLDER START TO THE DAY
COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LOW MID-NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST TIER TO
THE LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...MUCH CLOSER THAN THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS AFTER
SUNSET WITH ANOTHER HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S AT
THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 30S ALONG THE BEACHES. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOW PACKAGES SHOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 20S IN
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER STATIONS WELL INLAND...SO FURTHER
TEMPERATURE REDUCTIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE A
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO MODIFY EACH DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S
THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS
NEAR 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS UP TO 60-70 PERCENT OVER MOST
AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD TO START OFF THE
WEEK...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTS OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY...THEN
MID/UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY...WITH FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR
SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE AXIS OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID
60S ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY INTO MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY GO
VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO ALIGN
ITSELF RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES.
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES IN TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE INLAND.
HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE/BUILD OVER THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE WEEKEND AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK NEAR
25 KTS OVER ALL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE SEAS BUILD TO
6-9 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE COAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND
THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
SOON.
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 19TH...
KCHS...27 SET IN 1949 /ALREADY BROKEN/...
KCXM...31 SET IN 1903.
KSAV...27 SET IN 2008 AND PREVIOUS.
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 20TH...
KCHS...25 SET IN 1951.
KCXM...28 SET IN 1951.
KSAV...24 SET IN 1914.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* -SN MOVES IN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR VSBY AT FIRST. VSBY
DROPS TO LIFR BY 12Z.
* MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANY SNOW..AND MAY SEE CIGS DROP TO IFR.
* -SN TAPERS TO FLURRIES BY MID MORNING.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN MID MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAX GUSTS IN THE AFTN WILL BE ARND 25 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW AND LOWER CIGS WITH IT. SW WINDS WILL BECOME SSE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETURN TO
SSW. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE TAF AS IT ALL LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE. SNOW MOVES IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY ARND 12Z. AT LEAST IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE VSBY. CIGS WILL ALSO
COME DOWN WITH THE SNOW AND HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
VERSUS IFR GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING BUT FLURRIES
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SLOWLY RISE AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS SET UP WITH MAX GUSTS ARND 25 KT. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND LOWER CIGS & VSBY...MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE IFR WITH SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX EARLY THEN BECOMING RAIN. IFR
LIKELY.
SUNDAY....RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.
AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
410 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A
RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENTLY READINGS
ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH GENERALLY ON
THE WANE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...
AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHT PCPN
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL
CONCERN...BUT ONE WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR
THEM OUT...HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OF THE WX
COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CAN EXPECT INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MOVING IN. WITH BOTH DRY AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S ONCE MORE. LUCKILY...WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO DON/T EXPECT THE WIND CHILL FACTOR TO BE MORE
THAN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WHAT IS OF CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD BE LINGERING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT...TRAPPING A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS FROM THIS...COULD BE LOOKING AT A FREEZING FOG EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUING TO INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE 50S AS
WE HIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
POSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY...WITH
A WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHER CONCERNS FOR FOG OR FREEZING PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UL PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. UL RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWRD OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A
BROAD UL TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. THE UL TROF
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WX PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT LOWER LEVELS... LL MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE IT IS QUICK MOVING...THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN TERMS OF THE
GRIDS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE LOWS TRACK AND HOW IT
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS THE SFC
TROF SLOWLY MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AND THICKEN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AFTER 00Z A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND A VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THEY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING INTENSITY
AFTER 15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MAKING FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE
VALLEYS THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CURRENTLY READINGS ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 1O DEGREES IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...
MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH IN GENERAL ON
THE WAN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS. WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGH
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE
OF GENERATING PCPN FROM THE SMALL LIFT PRESENT WITH THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DEPTH OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL CONCERN...BUT ONE
WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR THEM OUT...
HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR THE
WX COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR NW COUNTIES. IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO
WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID TO FALL...BUT SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE NEAR
FREEZING AROUND DAWN SATURDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN.
DURING THE WEEKEND MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FLOW NORTH AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TX ON SATURDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS NE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW
LOOKS TO BE DOWNSLOPE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY. THIS WOULD LIMIT OUR
DESTABILIZATION...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRYING INFLUENCE AND RESULT IN RAIN. THE LOW
AND ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT OUT INTO CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THE LOW DOES NOT ARRIVE HERE UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER LARGE VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS TOWARD US IN A LARGE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT. EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...WE WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT WITH POOR CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OR PLACEMENT AT LONG RANGE. THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP A POP IN
OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AND THICKEN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AFTER 00Z A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND A VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THEY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING INTENSITY
AFTER 15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
346 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
W/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TARGET THE
TIP OF THE MITT AND THE STRAITS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
TO THE S/SW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
WAVE OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOW FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...AND
WILL ENHANCE ONGOING S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN...THE STRAITS AND MACKINAC COUNTY.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1219 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.
SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.
TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.
ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED ONCE AGAIN
IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 24 HOUR /12IN OR
MORE/ WARNING CRITERIA IF BANDED PRECIP STAYS OVER E ALGER AND N
PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY. WILL NOT HOIST ANY NEW HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING ADVISORIES OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LES GOING...AS NOTED ABOVE...BEHIND THE
EXITING SFC LOW OVER N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS THROUGH
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH
EXITS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
AT THAT POINT WE WILL BRIEFLY SAY GOODBYE TO OUR COLD WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG WAA WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W /FROM A SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER ONE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE S PLAINS/. LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
30S SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL LOW OVER MANITOBA
WILL SKIRT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC
RIDGE ERODING ACROSS UPPER MI.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE /OR MORE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN IF THE HIGHER QPF LIKE THAT FROM THE 18/12Z
ECMWF PAN OUT. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST...SO WILL ONLY ADD THE MENTION
FOR NOW AND WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PRECIP /FREEZING DRIZZLE/.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF
THE S STREAM LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ND/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THE S LOW TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE MI/ILLINOIS BY 00Z
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS E UPPER MI/W LAKE HURON BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. HOW MUCH OF THAT FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN/OVER
OUR SNOW PACK IS IN QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE OVER KIWD AND KCMX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW DROPPING INTO THE REGION. WHILE KSAW CURRENTLY
VFR...THE LOWER CIGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN LATE OVERNIGHT. SNOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH
VISIBILITIES BORDERLINE IFR AT KIWD AT TIMES. KSAW VISIBILITIES TO
STAY MVFR WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AT KIWD DUE TO DIMINISHED FETCH BUT INCREASED
FETCH...GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES AT KCMX TO PRODUCE
IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING THERE.
LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE IN THE
FORECAST AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT KIWD AND KCMX WHILE
KSAW CIGS DO RISE AS DOWNSLOPE INCREASES AS WINDS SHIFT WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
752 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
MORNING SNOW SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR WITH MODERATE SNOWS
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THERE IS A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THAT HAS A
HISTORY OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW
LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO TIME THESE IN FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR
CONDITIONS. KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z...
RADAR SHOWS DECENT REFLECTIVY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA
BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE IMPEDING SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH BACKED OF SNOW FOR THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING MOSTLY
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER THAT BRINGS DOWN VSBY AND CIGS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE VFR. SSE WINDS
BCM WEST BY MID MORNING AND GUST TO ARND 25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND CIG FCST.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
VSBY...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
555 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* FLURRIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTN.
* LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25 KT THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
RADAR SHOWS DECENT REFLECTIVY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA
BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE IMPEDING SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH BACKED OF SNOW FOR THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING MOSTLY
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER THAT BRINGS DOWN VSBY AND CIGS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE VFR. SSE WINDS
BCM WEST BY MID MORNING AND GUST TO ARND 25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND CIG FCST.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER VSBY AND CIGS WITH HEAVIER SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.
AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. 12-18 KFT
AGL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BOTH TERMINALS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TODAY. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER SW
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ALL OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS BETTER BL MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF KMCK. THOUGH UPDATED SNOW
FIELD APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT THAN 00Z...I STILL DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING VFR. I HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK TAF DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
941 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WITH SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PLACING EASTERN KY UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
FLOW TODAY. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING MID TO HI CLOUDS ERODING OVER
CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING AS THEY APPROACH THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN PLACE INVOF OF NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED AS CURRENT TRENDS
COVERED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A
RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENTLY READINGS
ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH GENERALLY ON
THE WANE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...
AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHT PCPN
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL
CONCERN...BUT ONE WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR
THEM OUT...HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OF THE WX
COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CAN EXPECT INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MOVING IN. WITH BOTH DRY AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S ONCE MORE. LUCKILY...WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO DON/T EXPECT THE WIND CHILL FACTOR TO BE MORE
THAN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WHAT IS OF CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD BE LINGERING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT...TRAPPING A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS FROM THIS...COULD BE LOOKING AT A FREEZING FOG EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUING TO INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE 50S AS
WE HIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
POSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY...WITH
A WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHER CONCERNS FOR FOG OR FREEZING PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UL PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. UL RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWRD OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A
BROAD UL TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. THE UL TROF
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WX PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT LOWER LEVELS... LL MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE IT IS QUICK MOVING...THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN TERMS OF THE
GRIDS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE LOWS TRACK AND HOW IT
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS THE SFC
TROF SLOWLY MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER 00Z A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS SYSTEM...VCSH IS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS...AS CIGS DROP INTO
THE MVFR RANGE WITH IFR POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH INCREASING STRENGTH AFTER
15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THEY START TO
TURN TO MORE TOWARD THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...T...AND TD
ONES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THIS CAPTURES THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS CURRENTLY AS WELL AS THE MILDER RIDGES AND
SPOTS WEST OF I-75. HAVE SENT THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING A
RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT EVEN COLDER FOR THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENTLY READINGS
ARE VARYING FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH GENERALLY ON
THE WANE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE TAKING
PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS LURES A WEAK ENERGY STREAM NORTH INTO
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW RECORD LEVELS IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SMARTLY SO THAT HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH...
AND LATER LOWER CLOUDS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHT PCPN
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE
QUESTION BECOMES P-TYPE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF...OR LACK THEREOF...MOISTURE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE ICE
CRYSTALS FOR SNOW AND SO THAT WAS THE MAIN WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT SO IT IS A MARGINAL
CONCERN...BUT ONE WORTH NOTING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE PUSH TO CLEAR
THEM OUT...HINDERING OUR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OF THE WX
COVERAGE TERM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CAN EXPECT INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MOVING IN. WITH BOTH DRY AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S ONCE MORE. LUCKILY...WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO DON/T EXPECT THE WIND CHILL FACTOR TO BE MORE
THAN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WHAT IS OF CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD BE LINGERING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT...TRAPPING A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS FROM THIS...COULD BE LOOKING AT A FREEZING FOG EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT CONTINUING TO INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE 50S AS
WE HIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
POSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY...WITH
A WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHER CONCERNS FOR FOG OR FREEZING PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UL PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. UL RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWRD OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A
BROAD UL TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. THE UL TROF
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WX PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT LOWER LEVELS... LL MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE IT IS QUICK MOVING...THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN TERMS OF THE
GRIDS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE LOWS TRACK AND HOW IT
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS THE SFC
TROF SLOWLY MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER 00Z A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS SYSTEM...VCSH IS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS...AS CIGS DROP INTO
THE MVFR RANGE WITH IFR POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH INCREASING STRENGTH AFTER
15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THEY START TO
TURN TO MORE TOWARD THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
624 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE S/SW TODAY AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW...AND WILL ENHANCE ONGOING S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN...THE STRAITS AND
MACKINAC COUNTY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF
LIFR/IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
955 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
FRINGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS MOVING SOUTH. THUS...THE WIND
SHIFT AND ANY COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO LITTLE AND
TOO LATE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...THE COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT AS WE SPEAK.
THUS...THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...NUDGING UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. NO OTHER NOTICEABLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE COLDER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
WEAK WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. THAT SAID...FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS SUGGESTS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
MODEST WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
1000-850MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE SWRN STATES FRIDAY AND INTO TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-44.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS VERY MUCH IN DOUBT
AS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 29 54 40 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 55 30 55 41 / 0 0 0 40
MLC 56 31 59 47 / 0 0 0 40
BVO 52 24 53 36 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 52 23 50 38 / 0 0 0 30
BYV 52 24 50 36 / 0 0 0 30
MKO 55 28 55 42 / 0 0 0 40
MIO 49 23 51 36 / 0 0 0 30
F10 55 30 56 44 / 0 0 10 40
HHW 57 33 60 49 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FEATURE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE A WARM FRONT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, MARKED WITH DEWPOINTS AT
OR UNDER 15 DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD WITH THE AID OF TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FLURRIES. THE RGEM AND NAM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CHANCE. STILL OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TEMPERATURES
FALLING A LITTLE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING THEN
RISING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
FALLING SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNRISE. TOOK THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT BUT
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV AND MET GOING A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL INTO
THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING 40.
FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING, LIMITING THE
MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE
A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN
NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK
DETAILS...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.
THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW
NOW PROGGED OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT
D+5 IT/S TOUGH TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.
NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.
ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.
MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
300 PM...COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER PUNCH OF
COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME SCATTERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FLURRIES
AND FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ONLY A DUSTING...AT THE MOST...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT IT
WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BLUSTERY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS BY
MORNING...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO.
STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 20S
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY TANK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME SUNSHINE AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
300 PM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY...FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
POSSIBLE VERY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BROAD WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN FALLING FRIDAY EVENING...FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER A WEEK AND A HALF OF MAINLY
SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND HIGH TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SURFACES
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET...BULK OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF OF BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE THE FREEZING LINE TO ABOUT THE I-80
CORRIDOR BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY SLOWER/COLDER
THAN THESE MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO
MID MORNING SATURDAY AND CONSIDERING WINDS ARE ALL SOUTHERLY
DURING THIS EVENT...WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MIGHT ARRIVE SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER. NEVERTHELESS...ANY AMOUNT OF ICING WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...SO AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...THESE
TRENDS WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP TIMING/DURATION.
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY...HIGHS MAY
REACH THE MID 40S BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WITH NO CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST. HOW DENSE IT BECOMES OR HOW LONG IT PERSISTS IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TURN NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO AS
LOW AS 973MB BY MONDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST WI AS SHOWN BY THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF. WHILE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR NO WINTER PRECIP
CONCERNS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE TRACK WILL BE IMPORTANT
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACH INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH EVENT TOTAL QPF FROM THE MODELS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AND
IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE FALLING ONTO FROZEN OR
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND. THUS...AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...
HYDRO ISSUES MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STRONG
WINDS AND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST...BUT THIS FAR SOUTH
VSBYS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET LOWER THAN 5 SM. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE
WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NON
ACCUMULATING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH LARGELY LOW END VFR
CONDITIONS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF NON ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MEDIUM THAT MVFR VSBY
SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT THAN VFR.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Breezy and cold weather will be the rule across central Illinois
tonight. 19z/1pm surface analysis shows cold front exiting into
Indiana, while ridge of high pressure builds into the Plains.
Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to create
W/NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Gustiness will
begin to subside toward sunset: however, with ridge axis staying
west of Illinois until Thursday, gradient will remain tight enough
to support winds of around 10 mph through the night. Clouds and a
few flurries will prevail early in the evening, with the big weather
question being how fast skies will clear later tonight. Widespread
cloud cover is currently evident on satellite imagery from Illinois
northwestward to the US/Canada border: however, several holes in the
overcast have developed upstream across the Dakotas/Minnesota. All
model guidance suggests clouds will begin to scatter this evening,
with mostly clear conditions expected overnight. Given current
satellite imagery and continued deep northwesterly flow, think this
is too fast. Have therefore gone with a slower clearing trend more
in line with the HRRR solution. End result will be cloudy skies
this evening, followed by gradual clearing overnight. Due to the
clouds and continued breeze, have gone with the higher end of
numeric guidance for lows tonight, with readings ranging from 14
degrees in Galesburg to around 20 degrees south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Moisture channel satellite imagery and the morning upper air shows
deep upper level trof over eastern US with main jet from central
Canada into the midwest. This upper flow will bring in another surge
of cold air, with cold surface high moving into region during the
day Thursday and Thursday night. With clear skies by Thursday night,
have lowered Friday morning lows some due to light winds and cold
airmass.
Main precipitation concern is for Friday evening and Friday night,
as overrunning precipitation develops from AR into MO ahead of
digging shortwave in the southwest US. Precipitation will reach
central IL Friday evening, so temperature forecast will be critical,
as warm air aloft will produce precipitation in form of rain.
A detailed look at the model surface temperature forecasts depicts
EUR warmest, GFS, and NAM coolest. Feel the warming temperatures
will be blend of GFs and NAM, as conditions will start off cooler
Friday morning, as lowered morning lows. Feel current forecast grids
a good compromise and so looks like pcpn will start in evening
Friday as light freezing rain, with the freezing line gradually
moving to the northeast overnight. Pcpn amounts still look to be
light, so impacts will be on the light scale.
Saturday pcpn will be rain, as overrunning pcpn continues to develop
and move into the region. Strongest dynamics look to be on Sunday,
as the shortwave system and surface low approach and move through
region.
Models are similar in the movement of system, with low center
tracking just west of the cwa Sunday, with front moving through area
and gusty winds. Vertical stacking of the upper low over Lake MI on
sunday night.
Cool conditions will conditions into midweek, as the upper low
gradually moves off and allows another cool high pressure area into
the midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Cold front has pushed east of the central Illinois terminals late
this morning, resulting in strong W/NW winds across the board.
Based on 12z forecast soundings and the latest upstream
observations, wind gusts will generally remain in the 25 to 30kt
range before gradually subsiding toward sunset. Even though winds
will drop off tonight, pressure gradient will remain tight enough
to support sustained winds of around 10kt through the entire
night. 17z/11am satellite imagery shows low cloud cover spilling
into central Illinois behind the departing front, with the leading
edge currently approaching the I-57 corridor. A narrow band of
MVFR ceilings are noted across the Illinois River Valley, but
these should gradually rise to VFR over the next couple of hours.
Have therefore included MVFR conditions at KPIA/KBMI/KSPI through
20/21z. After that, the big question will be how fast skies clear
tonight. Due to ample upstream cloud cover within the
northwesterly flow pattern, have trended toward the more
pessimistic HRRR solution. End result will be a slow clearing
trend after dark, with ceilings scattering out at KSPI by 03z and
further northeast at KCMI by around 06z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
151 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST...BUT THIS FAR SOUTH
VSBYS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET LOWER THAN 5 SM. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE
WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NON
ACCUMULATING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH LARGELY LOW END VFR
CONDITIONS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF NON ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MEDIUM THAT MVFR VSBY
SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT THAN VFR.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
135 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH
AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHT AND NON ACCUMULATING WITH NO SIGNFICIANT VSBY
REDUCTION...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DUSTING WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND GENERALLY NON ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM ON HOW LONG VISIBLITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AND LOW ON WHETHER CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 2000 FT.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING GALE WARNING OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK.
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY HAD BROUGHT A BRIEF
LULL TO THE WINDS EARLIER TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SWLY TO WLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE RAMPING BACK UP TO PREVAILING WEST GALES. A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN QUEBEC
AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ...BUT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LAKE...BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE FURTHER...AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STILL COME TO THE END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS RESIDUAL
WAVE ACTION SUBSIDES...THOUGH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES SHOULD
OUTLAST THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. THE PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING...MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TWO
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OVER GALES TO THE LAKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE EXACTLY WHERE THE CONSOLIDATED
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME...SO WILL GO WITH A
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
FORECAST WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE
WITH LATER UPDATES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A HISTORY OF 2-5SM
VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH
AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHT AND NON ACCUMULATING WITH NO SIGNFICIANT VSBY
REDUCTION...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DUSTING WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
CIGS TREND BACK TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND GENERALLY NON ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM ON HOW LONG VISIBLITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AND LOW ON WHETHER CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 2000 FT.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1007 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS...OR LOW LIGHTS AS THE CASE MAY BE...THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CONTINUED SUB-NORMAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACHING WI/IL
AT 0830Z. SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/EAST
CENTRAL IA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN WI/IL AND BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND RAISING
TEMPS. RADAR RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST
FROM TWIN CITIES AREA...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SO FAR HAS SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE. TRACK OF SYSTEM...RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH-RES HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE ALONG A
ROUGHLY MSP-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ARRIVING IN MID-LEVELS BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND LIMITING BEST FORCING FOR SNOW TO A ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AM. SURFACE TROUGH PASSES MID-DAY...WITH RENEWED COLD
ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COOL AGAIN.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES DESPITE ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE 20S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH THE MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.
COLDER TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH-TOUTED CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY...
AS FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL
SET UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS APPROACHING +5C WHILE SFC TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY RAISES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH
ALSO SOMEWHAT COLDER INITIALLY AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER
TO RAIN. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE BALMY 45-50 RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE DETAILS OF PHASING THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE IDEA OF MILD WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AS WE
SHIFT BACK TO A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
* CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS ARND
25-28 KT THIS AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
MORNING SNOW SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR WITH MODERATE SNOWS
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THERE IS A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THAT HAS A
HISTORY OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE MORE UNSTABLE LOW
LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO TIME THESE IN FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR
CONDITIONS. KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z...
RADAR SHOWS DECENT REFLECTIVY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA
BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE IMPEDING SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH BACKED OF SNOW FOR THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING MOSTLY
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER THAT BRINGS DOWN VSBY AND CIGS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE VFR. SSE WINDS
BCM WEST BY MID MORNING AND GUST TO ARND 25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND CIG FCST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBY
...MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.
* HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX BCMG RAIN. IFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND IFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC -RASN BCMG -SN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CST
HEADLINES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
DID UPGRADE THE OPEN WATER GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. MAY SEE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALES FASTER THAN THE WARNING WOULD INDICATE...BUT
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GALES WILL LAST SO LEFT THE END
TIME AS IS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO
WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO GALES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEY MAY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE SOONER THAN THE WARNING
INDICATES. NW WINDS TO 30 KT BECOME WEST 10-20 KT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRONG
THE LOW WILL BE AND ITS EXACT PATH BUT GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO AGREE
THAT THE LAKE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1009 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.
AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS. I AM
CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT DIURNAL
WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP. ANY
FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1244 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1006MB LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS/CENTRAL MISSOURI.
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING AN
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MICHIGAN...WITH ENHANCED RADAR
RETURNS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME DECENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FORCE A CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
2-3MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING FRONT TO PUSH IN
TO WESTERN LOWER IN THE 18Z-19Z TIME FRAME. AS IT DOES...EXPECT
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO GET PUSHED INLAND ALONG
THE US-31 CORRIDOR. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE NARROWER LAKE CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO EXPAND AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS...FOCUSING SNOWFALL INTO WESTER MACKINAC
COUNTY. SO "TODAY" ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT PLN/TVC/MBL THROUGH
TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT APN THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY
TRANSITION TO PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1148 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1006MB LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS/CENTRAL MISSOURI.
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHING AN
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MICHIGAN...WITH ENHANCED RADAR
RETURNS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME DECENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING FORCE A CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
2-3MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING FRONT TO PUSH IN
TO WESTERN LOWER IN THE 18Z-19Z TIME FRAME. AS IT DOES...EXPECT
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO GET PUSHED INLAND ALONG
THE US-31 CORRIDOR. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE NARROWER LAKE CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO EXPAND AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS...FOCUSING SNOWFALL INTO WESTER MACKINAC
COUNTY. SO "TODAY" ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE WAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TODAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL SERVE TO RE-INFORCE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUMEROUS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. THEN QUICK
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
IS THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY. H7 MIXING RATIO/S ONLY AROUND 1 G/KG...SO
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS/ WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL EVOLVE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR FOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 0-2KM CAPE OF 100 J/KG UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL BE DRIVEN INLAND TOWARD MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...INITIALLY LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF
MACKINAC COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN TOWARD US-2 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE LAKE
INFLUENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO WESTERLY BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REALLY LOOK QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS TO BE HIT AGAIN WITH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH H7 AND NO REAL INVERSION...WITH EXCELLENT
OMEGA PEGGED SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WITH DELTA T/S OF 20+ DEGC. SNOW
WILL BE OF THE DRY/POWDERY VARIETY AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING AND AREAS OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
HEADLINES...CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TODAY
WILL BE HANDLED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WILL ONLY CARRY THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...WHERE TRANSITION
TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR SNOWFALL. WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY FOR MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...WILL FULL EXPECTATION THAT THESE HEADLINES WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME/AREA FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. WITH REGARD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED THURSDAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR JUST A TOUCH LONGER...WITH ONE LAST ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
SET TO VISIT OUR AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN CHANGE
THEREAFTER IS RATHER AN ABRUPT ONE. AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER
THIS WEEK WILL DO THE TRICK. THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY REVERSES THE
CURRENT PATTERN BY ESTABLISHING WESTERN TROUGHING AND FLOODING MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NEARLY ALL FOCUS CENTERED ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
THURSDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS...LOCATION OF STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST LAKE
BANDING...AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION ALL NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: MORE LAKE EFFECT FUN! WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FLOW
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NW TO NNW NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WITH PASSAGE
OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES LOOK GOOD TO EXCELLENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL
EXCEEDING 10KFT...OMEGA MAX WELL WITHIN THE DGZ...AND GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE VIA EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN: WHILE PARAMETERS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS
PAST EVENT...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...THURSDAY (THIS WILL BE ON TOP OFF WHAT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT). TARGET AREAS WILL LOOK FAMILIAR...WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER LOCATIONS BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 EXPECTED TO TAKE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW ELSEWHERE. FLOW DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. OF COURSE...PREDICTING PLACEMENT OF PARTICULAR BANDS NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH STREAM-LINE WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DOMINATE BANDS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LAKE REINFORCED TROUGHING.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE EXTREME...GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING
INVERSION/DEPLETING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW INTENSITY DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING JUST A COUPLE
MORE INCHES TO NW FLOW AREAS.
LAKE SUPERIOR...PARAMETERS LOOK AS GOOD AS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...JUST
WITH A MUCH QUICKER VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGHING
THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS TARGETING THE SOO BEFORE PUSHING WELL WEST INTO
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPLY...3 TO 6 WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SNOWS WILL EXIT SAULT STE MARIE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE SOO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EARLIER
PERIODS...PERUSAL OF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO ADD INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER OF
LATE...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL LOOKING COLD FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MODIFICATION RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE
PATTERN FLATTENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND CURRENT COLD DOME EJECTS WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
SUITES AGREE...A RATHER REMARKABLE QUICK EXIT TO SUCH AN ENTRENCHED
COLD PATTERN. WAA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS...READY FOR THIS...ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
ONLY GETS MORE MILD AND WETTER BY SUNDAY INT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH INTO OR JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. REALLY NO COLD AIR IN
SIGHT BY THIS TIME (HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY)...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION...WITH SOME PROGS SUPPORTING A SUB
980MB LOW...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.
TIMING DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT POST-SYSTEM COOL DOWN BEGINS
SOMETIME LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE S/SW TODAY AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW...AND WILL ENHANCE ONGOING S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN...THE STRAITS AND
MACKINAC COUNTY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF
LIFR/IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
QUIETER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ008-016-017-019-021-022.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
338 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT MILES CITY. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND MILES
CITY...BUT ONLY HAVE VCFG IN THE TAFS. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
00/B 00/B 13/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
00/N 00/N 14/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
00/B 00/B 03/W 32/J 22/J 33/J 33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
00/B 00/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 22/J 32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
00/B 00/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 23/J 32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
00/B 00/B 01/B 33/J 22/J 23/J 22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
00/B 10/B 02/W 32/J 22/J 23/J 33/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1125 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY WILL OCCUR TODAY AT MOST SITES...WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND AFTER THAT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE INITIALLY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH A LOW END VFR CIG AT KMLC AND KFSM AFT 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES IF NEED BE.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
FRINGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS MOVING SOUTH. THUS...THE WIND
SHIFT AND ANY COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO LITTLE AND
TOO LATE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...THE COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT AS WE SPEAK.
THUS...THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...NUDGING UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. NO OTHER NOTICEABLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE COLDER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
WEAK WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. THAT SAID...FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS SUGGESTS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
MODEST WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
1000-850MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE SWRN STATES FRIDAY AND INTO TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-44.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS VERY MUCH IN DOUBT
AS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 29 54 40 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 55 30 55 41 / 0 0 10 40
MLC 56 31 59 47 / 0 0 10 40
BVO 52 24 53 36 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 52 23 50 38 / 0 0 0 30
BYV 52 24 50 36 / 0 0 0 30
MKO 55 28 55 42 / 0 0 0 40
MIO 49 23 51 36 / 0 0 0 30
F10 55 30 56 44 / 0 0 0 40
HHW 57 33 60 49 / 0 0 0 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WI. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP AND HRRR TO SOME DEGREE INDICATE WEAK OMEGA IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FALLING UPSTREAM IN THE LA CROSSE AREA SO SEEMS THIS
LIFT IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN CWA AND
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
UPSTREAM OBS IN THE LA CROSSE AREA INDICATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. FORCING FOR ANY LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES...IS MINIMAL. THINK SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KMSN WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT EASTERN TAF SITES. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
NOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO LESS THAN 10
MB IN THE 780 TO 620 MB LAYER...BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME...
ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES EAST OF THE AREA. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR
COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN A 7 THOUSAND FOOT DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS MORNING.
THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BRISK WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ELONGATED/SHEARED VORT
ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED WITH 925 TEMPS
-13 TO -15C WITH 20-25 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. MOST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECTING A BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WAY BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO IA
THROUGH SRN IL BY DAYS END.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER
BUT COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING
SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS. THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS MODERATE
TO -3C TO -6C. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE MID 20S. THE WAA
REGIME CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MODELS DELAYING PRECIP
ARRIVAL.
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MIXY PRECIP DUE THE WARMING
ALOFT AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPS SLOWER TO MODERATE. SO AFTER 6Z
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WILL BE THE WINDOW OF CONCERN AS ALL PRECIP
TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND LACK OF SUSTAINED SATURATION IN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE BEARING SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW MILD TEMPS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME AREAS...ESP IN THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 40.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
REACHES EITHER NRN IL OR SE WI BY 00Z MON. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING SMALL POPS GOING IN THE EAST FOR NOW...PER SUPERBLEND
POPS. GFS SHOWS DRY WX WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS JUST A SMIDGE OF
QPF AROUND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z AT MADISON...AND 17Z AT THE EASTERN
SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CATEGORY. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SM/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
COMPLIMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY MODEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS LATE THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER MTNS AT THAT TIME WITH A ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE REGION BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL INITIATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THAT EVENING...A PRECURSOR OF MORE WIND TO COME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
STARTING OFF SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. AFTER A
FAIRLY WARM DAY SATURDAY...GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 0
TO+2C SATURDAY AT NOON...DOWN TO -8 TO-10C SUNDAY MORNING. GOING
TO BE PRETTY WINDY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB WINDS PRETTY CLOSE TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. 700MB
CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...STARTING OFF AROUND 990MTRS SATURDAY MORNING...EASING
TO 60MTRS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS
AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY.
LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE JET DIVES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO. 700MB WINDS EASE TO
20-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDY AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
PANHANDLE WHERE 850MB WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 35-40KTS THROUGH
THE DAY.
A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER WIND EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERSISTING INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN WYOMING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRAGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT WEST IN CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES...700MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY 50+KTS MONDAY
MORNING. THEN EASE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT 60 TO
80 MTR HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60KTS MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND REALLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE. GFS WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 70KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH 90+MTR 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENTS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
80KTS OVER LARAMIE AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS NEAR
120MTRS. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HEADLINES IF THIS COMES
TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT FROM WEATHER THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. NEED TO WATCH THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LAYS OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE LOW
CLOUDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KCDR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WEATHER FACTORS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL. BY LATE SATURDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO AREAS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
938 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT STRONG THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND IN THE ARLINGTON AREA. GUSTS OF 35 TO
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THESE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE
UPPER JET WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN WEAKENING OVERALL THROUGH AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
SATELLITE PICS SHOW STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STEADILY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BL RH PROGS SHOWING
LLVL CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE LLVL CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. BROADSCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING JET WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES MINIMAL TODAY WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PINE RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND BECOME MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE ON THURSDAY WITH H7 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND
-1C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S OUT WEST. NAM DOES SHOW THE
STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE PINE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS IF THE STRATUS INDEED PERSISTS. GFS AND WRF BOTH PUSH
THE LLVL CLOUDS TO THE EAST LATER TODAY THO...AND WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER AND MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL CARRY WITH IT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE WEST TO EAST WITH THE WAVE...BUT
LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
MIDLEVEL ENERGY...MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL FOCUS BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...WITH TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PEAKING IN THE 50S AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS AND PRODUCING A LEESIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
SATURDAY...ONE FINAL MILD DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE A
WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LEE TROUGH...WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AIDING IN
WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE. IF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY...
THICKNESS...IS LIMITED...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL
INTO THE 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WEST
OF I-25. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COPIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE ZONES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THERE...DRY
ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY...RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A MODERATELY STRONG PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE QPF IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO...WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. LOOKS WINDY PER
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS.
MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOW MACHINE WILL CONTINUE IN MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME TYPE OF LONG TERM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THERE. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH DOWNSLOPE WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. AS MENTIONED BY THE TUESDAY LONG
TERM FORECASTER...WE MAY SEE STRONG WINDS THIS DAY PER PROGGED
SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT FROM WEATHER THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. NEED TO WATCH THOUGH
THE LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LAYS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
KCDR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM