Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/18/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
815 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FAR WESTERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT SUBJECTIVELY ALIGNS FROM THE PHOENIX
METRO THROUGH FAR SWRN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...MOST APTLY DEFINED BY
A DISTINCT DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY AND PRESENCE OF GUSTY MIXED NORTH
WINDS. WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HAVE BEEN
QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING TAPPING A POST FRONTAL LLJ AND IN MANY
CASES GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITH VSBYS LOCALLY BELOW ONE MILE. HAVE ISSUED A BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH 11 AM WHEN THE STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD START TO PARTIALLY ABATE.
ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE AND PV ANOMALY WERE STRENGTHENING OVER NRN
ARIZONA FORCING MORE FOCUSED DEEP ASCENT THROUGH EAST CNTRL ARIZONA.
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RADAR ECHOES
WERE OBTAINING A MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING APPEARANCE. IN
FACT...DESPITE HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS SOME SNOW SHOWERS WERE
REPORTED IN THE MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE GLOBE AREA IN SRN GILA
COUNTY AS A RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE WAS RAPIDLY DESCENDING SOUTH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND ANY FURTHER RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST
BEYOND THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATES THIS MORNING INCLUDED SOME
SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOST SALIENT GRIDS TO CAPTURE CURRENT
TRENDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/442 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014/
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING
STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN UT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE EVEN
BEEN DETECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF VORTICITY-FORCED ASCENT. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CLIP SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BEFORE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WIND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND WITH A
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH
45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CA.
WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD BE THE COOLEST MAXIMUM
SINCE EARLY MARCH. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS OR
EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT
BE OPTIMAL DUE TO SOME MIXING...SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING THE GLOBE VICINITY) WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE
YEAR AND VEGETATION IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD...THE FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
INCLUDING THE GLOBE AREA. EVEN IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE VALLEY
INCLUDING GILBERT AND QUEEN CREEK...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 71 DEGREES IN PHOENIX. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
RISING THICKNESSES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. INTER/INTRA-MODEL INCONSISTENCIES PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALL PACIFIC
VORTICES. UNCERTAINTY IS ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN WEIGHTED TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TURN VARIABLE TO EASTERLY LIGHT WINDS TO
THE NORTH BETWEEN 15-18Z THIS MORNING ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LOW VFR CU WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH MID MORNING...CLOSER TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BEFORE GETTING
SCOURED OUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE
WEST BY 18Z AS A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY TURN
TO A MORE EASTERLY HEADING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND IS ALREADY LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT KBLH.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNRISE AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BLOWING DUST/SAND ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY REDUCE LONGER RANGE
VSBYS AND PERIODICALLY REDUCE AIRFIELD VSBYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEEKEND/S COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED DRY HUMIDITIES. SINGLE
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE TEENS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTO THE 20S FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD...OR ACTUALLY RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON AZZ020-025.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST MONDAY AZZ024.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
442 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FAR WESTERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING
STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN UT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE EVEN
BEEN DETECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF VORTICITY-FORCED ASCENT. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CLIP SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BEFORE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WIND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND WITH A
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH
45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CA.
WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD BE THE COOLEST MAXIMUM
SINCE EARLY MARCH. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS OR
EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT
BE OPTIMAL DUE TO SOME MIXING...SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING THE GLOBE VICINITY) WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE
YEAR AND VEGETATION IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD...THE FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
INCLUDING THE GLOBE AREA. EVEN IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE VALLEY
INCLUDING GILBERT AND QUEEN CREEK...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 71 DEGREES IN PHOENIX. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
RISING THICKNESSES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. INTER/INTRA-MODEL INCONSISTENCIES PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALL PACIFIC
VORTICES. UNCERTAINTY IS ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN WEIGHTED TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TURN VARIABLE TO EASTERLY LIGHT WINDS TO
THE NORTH BETWEEN 15-18Z THIS MORNING ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LOW VFR CU WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH MID MORNING...CLOSER TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BEFORE GETTING
SCOURED OUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE
WEST BY 18Z AS A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY TURN
TO A MORE EASTERLY HEADING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND IS ALREADY LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT KBLH.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNRISE AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BLOWING DUST/SAND ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY REDUCE LONGER RANGE
VSBYS AND PERIODICALLY REDUCE AIRFIELD VSBYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEEKEND/S COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED DRY HUMIDITIES. SINGLE
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE TEENS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTO THE 20S FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD...OR ACTUALLY RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON AZZ020-025.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST MONDAY AZZ024.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
335 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FAR WESTERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING
STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN UT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE EVEN
BEEN DETECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF VORTICITY-FORCED ASCENT. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CLIP SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BEFORE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WIND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND WITH A
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH
45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CA.
WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD BE THE COOLEST MAXIMUM
SINCE EARLY MARCH. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS OR
EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT
BE OPTIMAL DUE TO SOME MIXING...SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING THE GLOBE VICINITY) WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE
YEAR AND VEGETATION IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD...THE FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
INCLUDING THE GLOBE AREA. EVEN IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE VALLEY
INCLUDING GILBERT AND QUEEN CREEK...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 71 DEGREES IN PHOENIX. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
RISING THICKNESSES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. INTER/INTRA-MODEL INCONSISTENCIES PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALL PACIFIC
VORTICES. UNCERTAINTY IS ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN WEIGHTED TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SCT-BKN IN NATURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM IN FROM
W-NW REMAINING AOA 20KFT LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PAC
STORM SYSTEM. SFC WINDS TO FOLLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN HEADINGS THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SPEEDS. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN STATES EARLY SUNDAY AM WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PHX AREA FOR SUNDAY
AM...MOSTLY AFTER 16/14Z AND LATER INTO THE AM. WINDS WILL THEN
TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY HEADINGS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES PUSHING INTO
THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTN. CENTRAL DESERT TAF
SITES MAY SEE FEW-SCT CU/SC DECKS DEVELOP BY 12Z AS STRONG FORCING
FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES IN...AND BKN CONDITIONS MAY EVEN OCCUR AT
TIMES FROM 12Z THRU 16Z OR SO. BASES GENLY 6-8K FEET. EXPECT
CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY 18Z AS A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS EXPECTED THROUGH 16/10Z OR SO. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 10-12Z SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FOR KBLH AND ELEVATED WINDS FOR KIPL FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENLY HOLD NW-N HEADINGS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS
PUSHING 40KTS FOR KBLH AND 25KTS FOR KIPL THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST/SAND ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY
REDUCE LONGER RANGE VSBYS AND PERIODICALLY REDUCE AIRFIELD VSBYS.
VSBY REDUCTIONS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEEKEND/S COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED DRY HUMIDITIES. SINGLE
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE TEENS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTO THE 20S FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD...OR ACTUALLY RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON AZZ020-025.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST MONDAY AZZ024.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1014 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014
MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW NOW DROPPING INTO EL PASO COUNTY...AND
EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE WITH A QUICK 2-4 INCHES LIKELY
BY MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...HAD TO INCREASE FORECAST SNOW
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVER PUEBLO COUNTY WHERE 1-2 INCHES HAS ALREADY
FALLEN AND 00Z NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2-4 POSSIBLE. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014
...WIDESPREAD SNOW TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO THOUGH
CORE OF COLDER AIR IS STILL SITTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS (VS. THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS).
MAIN UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY ACROSS WY/ID AND WILL CONTINUE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. UPPER JET ACROSS CO
HAS LED TO SOME BANDED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH SOME
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MONUMENT HILL WHERE MOST OF THE FORCING IS LIKELY DUE TO SHALLOW
OROGRAPHICS. SNOW ALSO CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...THOUGH INTENSITIES HAVE LET UP QUITE A BIT FROM THIS
MORNING. THAT WILL BE CHANGING IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS THOUGH AS
DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. BEST QG
FORCING APPEARS TO DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CHALLENGES STILL REVOLVE AROUND SNOW AMOUNTS.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...WITH GFS PREDICTING A HEALTHY 3-7 INCHES ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHILE NAM12 HAS MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. RAP IS
GOING ALONG WITH GFS...WHILE ECMWF AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
(ARW..NMM) AGREE MORE WITH THE NAM. SO HAVE TO HUNT FOR CLUES TO
SUGGEST WHERE TO PUT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEADLINE AREAS. GIVEN
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER FORCING IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND THE
BEST UPGLIDE OVER THE H7 FRONT SEEMS TO BE MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE LEFT PIKES PEAK AND EL PASO COUNTY OUT OF THE ADVISORY
AREA FOR NOW. SNOWFALL GRIDS WILL CARRY AROUND 2-5 INCHES WITH
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY MORE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
WHERE MODELS AGREE BETTER IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORIES NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD A TAD. PUEBLO COUNTY IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE AS HEAVIER
AMOUNTS MAY END UP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WHILE NORTHEAST PORTIONS SEE MORE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO HIT THE SOUTHERN SANGRES WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF QPF...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. HAVE ALSO ADDED EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
TO THE ADVISORY WHERE THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON WILL HAVE THE
BENEFIT OF SOME NORTHEAST OROGRAPHICS.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THESE AREAS SHOULD PICK UP ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.
A COUPLE OTHER CHALLENGING SPOTS INCLUDE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE
HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SNOW. HAVE GONE WITH AROUND AN
INCH TO 1.5 ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR GIVEN THIS AREA WILL BE IN
BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS. BEST CHANCE WILL COME IN
AFTER 10 PM FOR THIS AREA. BACA COUNTY IS THE FINAL CHALLENGE.
MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OUT THAT WAY...JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LATEST NAM12 HAS COME IN HEAVIER...SO
THIS AREA MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND
SETS UP ACROSS THAT AREA.
HIGHLIGHTS WILL PARE OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARDS MORNING. MOST
OF THE SNOW WILL BE DONE BY 10Z UP NORTH...AND BY 13-16Z DOWN SOUTH.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN BY MID DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN.
SOME SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS UP NORTH IF CLEARING
CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH. SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SO LOWS THERE MAY ONLY DROP INTO
THE TEENS. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014
...A SLOW WARMING TREND...
A SLOW WARMING TREND TO AROUND MID NOVEMBER AVERAGES REMAINS IN THE
OFFING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS COLD NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
WARMER MORE WESTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AND HEADACHE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY SNOW COVER. AT ANY RATE...HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW THE
COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND PLAINS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. INDUCED LEE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT FLATTENS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MINOR WAVES TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OWNING TO THE EXPECTED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2014
AT KALS...STILL A WINDOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS 06Z-12Z AS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
COLORADO. SNOW SHOULD END 12Z-14Z SUN MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AT KCOS...BACK EDGE OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW ALREADY SOUTH OF
DENVER METRO AS OF 05Z...THUS EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVIER
SNOW TO END 06Z-08Z...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER SNOW AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z-13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
AT KPUB...STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF SNOW AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 09Z AS SNOW
BAND SHIFTS SOUTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NM.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-073-079-
080-087-088-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ077-078-083-
086.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ068-074-075.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1016 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SOAKING
RAIN TO THE REGION...STARTING AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. COASTAL AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WINDS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SLOWED TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
BY RISING INTO THE MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST MA WITH UPPER 40S ON THE
ISLANDS AND AROUND 40 IN SOUTHERN NH FOR HIGHS... SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A PRONOUNCED LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING UP S COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR S COAST DURING AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DEEP MIXING NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
340 AM UPDATE...
00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH SYSTEM FOR MON AND
MON NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW...
* WINTRY MIX...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATION GIVEN LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. NONETHELESS WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW MEANS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS
INTERIOR. STILL ANTICIPATE SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX AT ONSET
EARLY MON MORNING FROM E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS INTO
PARTS OF NE CT AND CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE MA. WINTRY MIX WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN QUICKLY MON MORNING FROM SE TO NW...BUT SHOULD
HOLD ON LONGEST ACROSS W MA AND FAR SW NH.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS ALONG WITH LIGHT ICING
/UP TO 0.1 INCH/. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING E
SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES...N CENTRAL MA AND MOST OF SW NH. SOME
CONCERN THAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY TREND EVEN MILDER...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE AREAS FARTHER S/E AT THIS TIME AND LET DAY SHIFT GET A
LOOK AT 12Z RUNS.
* STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...
ALL MODELS HAVE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND LATER MON AND MON EVENING...AS HIGH AS 75KT AT 925-950 MB
AND EVEN 50-60KT DOWN TO 975 MB.
00Z NAM HAS EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF MILDER AIR FLOODING COASTAL
AREAS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO 60S ACROSS RI AND SE
MA LATE IN DAY OR EARLY MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS USUALLY
DIFFICULT TO GET DAMAGING WINDS ON SW FLOW...THIS LOW LEVEL
WARMING MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF THESE
WINDS SPEEDS TO SURFACE /IF NOT A BIT MORE/. SINCE WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN RI AND SE MA...WE WILL ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT /PER SHOWALTER
INDEX/ TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WHICH MAY SERVE TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN AS WELL.
GREATEST CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS.
* HEAVY RAINFALL...
STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE COMING UP COAST WITH A
PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH /+2 SD/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. STRONG
JET DYNAMICS AND 850 MB WIND ANOMALIES SHOULD BRING ENHANCED
RAINFALL TO SE NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY IF EMBEDDED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. MINOR URBAN FLOODING WOULD BE MAIN IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SHOULD ALSO AFFECT MON EVENING
COMMUTE IN PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSS MON EVENING SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
* MAINLY DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BLUSTERY TUE/WED
* A BIT MILDER THU BUT TURNING COLDER AGAIN FRI/SAT
* OVERALL TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NEXT SAT
MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PASS SOMEWHERE NORTHWEST OF I-95 MON EVENING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 60
TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE JAMMED UP IN THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE.
THERE ARE TWO MAIN MAIN CONCERNS WE HAVE MONDAY EVENING.
1) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY EVENING:
GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT
925 MB ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT THIS AREA
TO WARM SECTOR...SOME OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF WERE ABLE TO GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OR DEVELOP A FINE LINE. ITS ALWAYS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION...BUT FEEL ITS
WORTH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. AT THE
VERY LEAST...WILL PROBABLY MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
2) HEAVY RAIN/NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING MONDAY EVENING:
GIVEN VERY STRONG FORCING/JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AS SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO NEAR
ZERO. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE THAT WE SEE AT LEAST A FINE LINE
DEVELOP GIVEN VERY STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT.
REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING AND THIS MAY IMPACT PART OF THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THOUGH SO
NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED.
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE REGION AND
THE MILD TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FALL BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S BY DAYBREAK TUE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO WESTERN CANADA/ALASKA WILL FORCE
THE POLAR JET TO PLUNGE ABNORMALLY FAR SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE 30S
ON TUE AND WED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY SEE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON WED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
FLURRY OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPS
WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...THEY WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT IS
ON TAP FOR TUE/WED. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A PASSING SPRINKLE OR FLURRY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING THOUGH WITH
THE GFS COLDEST ON FRI AND ECMWF COLDER ON SAT. IN ADDITION...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CUTTING UNDERNEATH US FRI INTO
EARLY SAT SUGGESTING THE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW. NOT SURE ON
THIS THOUGH SINCE GFS/GFSENSEMBLES/GGEM DO NOT SHOW THIS SOLUTION AT
ALL. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS INDICATED THIS FOR A FEW RUNS IN A ROW SO
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY DISMISS IT EITHER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
1510Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MON.
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY OVERCAST MID CLOUDINESS.
THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS RAIN ARRIVES FROM SW
TO NE...STARTING AS A WINTRY MIX FROM IJD-ORH-LWM AND POINTS N/W.
MIX TRANSITIONS TO RAIN MON MORNING...LAST ACROSS NW MA AND FAR SW
NH BY MIDDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION BUT LIGHT ICING /UNDER 0.25 INCH/ IS EXPECTED.
CLOSER TO COAST...RAIN/FOG THROUGH MUCH OF DAY AS CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR S COAST
AS WELL AS STRONG SW WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT AND LLWS...AS SW JET
INCREASES TO 65KT AT 2-3KFT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ALL RAIN EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHOULD SEE FZRA/PL MIX
AT ONSET AROUND 08Z MON BEFORE QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN AROUND
10Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE EVENING IN HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. LLWS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
* POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION ON COASTAL WATERS MON THROUGH
TUE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS *
* GALE FORCE WINDS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THIS WEEK *
1010 AM UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.
INCREASING SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT E/NE BY DAYBREAK MON.
ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON S
COASTAL WATERS...STEADY RAIN ARRIVES EARLY MON MORNING AND
PERSISTS THROUGH DAY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OF MORE IMPORTANCE...WARM FRONT LIFTING N OF WATERS MON SHOULD
BRING STRONG SW WINDS TO WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH 40KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISSUING GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS...AND DECIDED TO
EXTEND THROUGH TUE TO ALSO COVER STRONG W/NW WINDS BEHIND SYSTEM
AS DETAILED BELOW.
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY MON EVENING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
WINDS. COULD REACH 12 FT ON OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH ISSUED WITH A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE
INVERSION...HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FINE LINE WILL BRING THE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF 35 TO 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS ALL WATERS DURING
THE EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATE OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. THIS WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF STRONG
SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES GIVEN DECENT WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MAZ016>024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NHZ011-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/JWD/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/JWD/GAF
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/JWD/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/JWD/GAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
907 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO EVENING UPDATES BUT DID
REALIGN THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL LAGGING WAY BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER BAND CURRENTLY
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS BAND WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT AND THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HINTS AT SO TOOK THIS
APPROACH.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL VERY LATE. THE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER CENTRAL FL ARE DISSIPATING AND THE HRRR SHOWS IT RAIN-FREE
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY DAWN AS
THE FRONT MOVES BY AND WINDS TURN NW. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH
VFR/DRY THROUGH DAWN THEN VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT FOR THE
DAY TUE. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE CONUS SINCE
THIS WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BEAR IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING ITS BASE HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DIVING INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE FRONTS EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT BY THE TIME THE FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN
CWA...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL AS
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTMS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT DECAYING SQUALL FEATURE MAKES IT NORTH OF
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE LINE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL
.MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT HIS INHIBITED MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN SOARING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEST PALM BEACH HAS ALREADY
REACHED A DAILY RECORD WITH MAXIMA AT LEAST 88F. MIAMI AND FORT
LAUDERDALE ALSO HAVE RECORDS THAT ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION OVER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRONG
COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL CAUSING
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS...MAXIMA
LIKELY TO BE NEAR 12Z TUESDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RANGE FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO AROUND 60F ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND WEDNESDAYS MAXIMA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...OVERTOP THE
COOL AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK...ALLOWING NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND COASTAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INLAND FROM THE EAST FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RIDGE IS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SUBSEQUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED SHRAS/TSRAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEHIND IT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FROPA AROUND 10Z-12Z AT KPBI AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AT THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST SITES. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...THEREFORE KEPT ONLY VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. GENERALLY
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE. PREVAILED MVFR FOR NOW AS
INDICATED BY SREF PROBABILITIES.
MARINE...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING NEARLY
IMMEDIATE 25 KTS NORTH WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
642 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL VERY LATE. THE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER CENTRAL FL ARE DISSIPATING AND THE HRRR SHOWS IT RAIN-FREE
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY DAWN AS
THE FRONT MOVES BY AND WINDS TURN NW. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH
VFR/DRY THROUGH DAWN THEN VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT FOR THE
DAY TUE. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE CONUS SINCE
THIS WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BEAR IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING ITS BASE HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DIVING INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE FRONTS EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT BY THE TIME THE FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN
CWA...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL AS
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTMS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT DECAYING SQUALL FEATURE MAKES IT NORTH OF
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE LINE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL
..MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT HIS INHIBITED MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN SOARING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEST PALM BEACH HAS ALREADY
REACHED A DAILY RECORD WITH MAXIMA AT LEAST 88F. MIAMI AND FORT
LAUDERDALE ALSO HAVE RECORDS THAT ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION OVER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRONG
COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL CAUSING
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS...MAXIMA
LIKELY TO BE NEAR 12Z TUESDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RANGE FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO AROUND 60F ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND WEDNESDAYS MAXIMA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...OVERTOP THE
COOL AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK...ALLOWING NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND COASTAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INLAND FROM THE EAST FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RIDGE IS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SUBSEQUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED SHRAS/TSRAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEHIND IT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FROPA AROUND 10Z-12Z AT KPBI AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AT THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST SITES. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...THEREFORE KEPT ONLY VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. GENERALLY
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE. PREVAILED MVFR FOR NOW AS
INDICATED BY SREF PROBABILITIES.
MARINE...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING NEARLY
IMMEDIATE 25 KTS NORTH WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 72 57 72 / 40 60 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 75 60 74 / 30 50 20 40
MIAMI 71 76 59 73 / 20 50 20 30
NAPLES 66 68 48 68 / 60 50 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE NEXT OF THE MUCH HERALDED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS-COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AS RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EARLY MIXING
COMBINE WE SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW KEEP THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN THE 08-13 UTC
RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT IT COULD BE EARLIER WITH FOG LIFTING
AFTER 10 UTC AS STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW
AM GOING TO ASSUME THE MODELS ARE OVER FORECASTING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FORECASTED SQUALL LINE.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GA
MONDAY MORNING...ENTERING SE GA MONDAY AFTN...THEN CROSSING NE FL
MONDAY EVENING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
INITIAL SHOWERS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER SE GA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING SPREADING INTO NE FL IN THE AFTN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO POOL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE GUSTY WIND WORDING WITH THE STORMS MONDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHES LATER
IN THE EVENING. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH NW TO SE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTN. WARM AIR WILL
SURGE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MONDAY AFTN...WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ALONG AND WEST OF I-75...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. CHILLY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FAR INLAND WITH 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH FAR INTERIOR SE GA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
IN ADDITION...BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL DESPITE
SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AREA WIDE BY AFTN. COLD ADVECTION WILL
MAXIMIZE TUESDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT
SINCE LAST WINTER. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A HARD
FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 301...WITH LOWER 20S
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING
CONDITIONS AS WELL...WITH MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP HOWEVER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE TO THE NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME W/SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMUP ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS NUDGING UPWARD
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY...WITH 70S LIKELY BY SUNDAY.
LOWS WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE TO
USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IN THE
3.5-5 KFT RANGE. A LOW CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING FOR
VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE IN GENERAL WITH LOCALLY
LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THE INTERESTING THING
ABOUT TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIME PERIOD FOR MIXING AS WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NORMALLY DENSER/THICKER PRE-DAWN FOG.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE THICKEST FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY BE IN THE
06-10 UTC TIME FRAME WITH INCREASING VISIBILITY TOWARD DAWN. RIGHT
NOW AM GOING TO GO WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FOG THROUGH DAWN BUT
HONESTLY THE MOST DENSE FOG MIGHT BE EARLIER THAN NORMAL.
GOING TO HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TOMORROW AND WILL JUST KEEP THEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELDS
THROUGH 18 UTC. HRRR IS SHOWING A SOME PRE-SQUALL LINE ACTIVITY BU
THE MAIN SQUALL LINE DOES NOT APPROACH THE FIELDS UNTIL AFTER 18
UTC. NAM12 IS BRING CONVECTION IN A BIT EARLIER ESPECIALLY IN THE
GAINESVILLE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS HAVE BRIEFLY IMPROVED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...PERHAPS
UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA. THIS PERIOD WILL BE BRIEFLY LIVED...AS
SOUTHERLIES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. THUS...WILL USE CAUTION FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE MONDAY
EVENING...WITH SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS.
LOW RISK EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH RH VALUES HIGH...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. BREEZY
TO WINDY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...WILL
MONITOR ERC/FUEL MOISTURE VALUES FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 73 35 48 / 20 90 40 0
SSI 61 76 41 51 / 10 90 80 0
JAX 62 79 40 52 / 10 90 80 0
SGJ 64 81 44 54 / 10 70 80 10
GNV 60 77 42 53 / 10 90 80 10
OCF 61 79 44 55 / 10 80 80 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/SANDRIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1204 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...
256 AM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN IL SATURDAY EVENING
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED OVER SOUTHERN MI...AND ANOTHER WAVE
WILL PASS OVER WI TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW.
AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORT STREAMER MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS DOES OMEGA
SOUTH OF A VAPLO TO PONTIAC LINE. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THIS LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH UP TO AN INCH
OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE.
SNOW DIMINISHES THIS EVENING BUT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CWA AS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SATURATION IN THE DGZ AND FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/S VORT STREAMERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES SATURATION IN
THE DGZ SO HAVE FLURRIES IN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-88. AREAS NORTH OF
I-88 MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURRING MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH.
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 OVER NW INDIANA...AND MIN WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY EVEN
SEE WIND CHILLS DIP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOW 30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BULK OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE OVER THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LOWERED LOW TEMPS TO THE LOW TEENS DOWNTOWN TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUTLYING AREAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT 0 TO -10F DOWNTOWN AND
SOME OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE IN THE -10 TO -15F RANGE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMERS
STILL MOVING OVERHEAD...KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...AND A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTER COUNTY.
A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER NORTHERN WI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA DURING
THE DAY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED ACCUMULATING SNOW SINCE
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL BE. THINKING THE
BETTER FORCING FOR SNOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. WEDNESDAY
DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERS GREATLY AMONG GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FASTER PROGRESSION. IN
GENERAL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR AND A FEW SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW. A WARM UP IS STILL IN
STORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW EVENT BUT IT/S MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION SPECIFICS NOW.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE
THE CURRENT RECORD TEMPERATURES AT BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
...CHICAGO...
RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...22 IN 1903.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...8 IN 1880.
WEDNESDAY THE 19TH...10 IN 1894.
...ROCKFORD...
RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...28 IN 1951.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...11 IN 1989.
WEDNESDAY THE 19TH...7 IN 1914.
KJB/MTF/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z
* ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR VSBYS.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS MONDAY
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW BAND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CHICAGOLAND
TERMINALS IN THE COMING HOURS...CLEARING ORD BY 19Z AND MDW BY
20Z. IN THE MAIN BAND IFBR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE...WHICH IS LARGELY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MVFR VSBYS FARTHER SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES AS THE SNOW IS
RATHER DRY. BACK BEHIND THIS BAND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
TIMES. MEANWHILE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LOW THEY WILL BE IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY AS SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE DAY GOES ON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED AT KRFD AROUND 3Z AND THEN IN CHICAGOLAND BY 5Z OR SO.
THE REAL SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH
AT LEAST OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LGT SNOW TIMING AND VIS IMPACTS WITH IFR LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN MVFR CIGS...THOUGH MEDIUM ON IF THEY WILL
INCREASE ABOVE 2000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES LIKELY. -SHSN POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND SHSN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CST
GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR LAKE MICHIGAN OPEN WATERS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
MAIN MARINE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
LAKES EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND LABRADOR THROUGH
MID-WEEK. TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
LAKE TO PRODUCE WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK DOES IT
LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY.
ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY
MID-DAY MONDAY...AND THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE NEARSHORE WATERS
OUT OF THE GALE WATCH IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AT THIS
TIME...ITS POSSIBLE SCA COULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM MONDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Forecast overall looks on track and just a few adjustments needed
today. Will maintain the winter weather advisory from 3 pm through
tonight across southeast third of CWA. Have 1-2 inches of snow se
of a Taylorville to Decatur to Champaign line to near I-70 this
afternoon/evening and 2-3 inches of snow from I-70 southeast with
highest amounts near the Wabash river. Just a dusting to less than
half inch of snow north of I-72 today. Highs similar to yesterday
in the mid to upper 30s with mildest readings in southeast IL with
Lawrenceville reaching near 40F. SW winds 5-10 mph today and become
WSW this evening as cold front over eastern IA/MO moves east
across IL during this evening. Widespread snow will develop across
se third of CWA during this afternoon and then diminish behind the
cold front later this evening and overnight. Wind will become WNW
later tonight and Monday morning and increase to 15 to 25 mph
ushering in colder air and causing some blowing snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
High pressure sliding off to the east over the Atlantic Seaboard
this morning as a lull in the pressure gradient moves into the
region. Though the sfc pattern is weak, an upper level disturbance
from the desert SW is moving out and across the region today, with
the best chances for snow showers later this afternoon/evening and
into the overnight hours. Weak winds today becoming increasingly
southwesterly ahead of the advancing showers. A larger trof over
the region and backing into the Plains, still associated with some
light snow showers and flurries also making its way across the
region and the Great Lakes. Have some pops in today for the areas
along and north of a line from Havana to Bloomington, mainly during
the first half of the day. The next wave moving into the middle of
the state by mid day from the SW. Latest 00z model runs in the
SREF, the NAM, the GFS, the GEM, the ECMWF...all shifting a bit
further north with the snow accumulation. Models focusing just
north of I-70 corridor between 21z and 00z with the heaviest of the
snowfall, spreading southward and then slowly shifting southward
with the chances for more snowfall beyond 00z. Snowfall totals
close to 2 to 3 inches along and south of a line from Edgar to
Shelbyville...just barely reaching advisory criteria...but with the
first snow of the season, it being somewhat early for the SE, and
the chance for this to make a messy commute early on Monday, have
gone ahead with the headline at this time. Concern with the axis of
the early qpf shifting northward, that another row of counties may
be needed on the north side...but not nearly enough consistency in
the model runs to be comfortable with that. Borderline 1 to 2
inches in counties north of the advisory to a line from Springfield
to Champaign, but being some of the early accumulations, certainly
potential to make a mess.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Cold in the forecast not letting up. Several shots of cP air dipping
into the region from the north. Cyclonic flow aloft and plenty of
cold air lending to flurries for Monday afternoon. Temperatures on
the back side of that take a significant dive as 850 mb temps drop
into the -7C to -18C range by Monday afternoon. Early Tuesday
morning will be incredibly cold with lows forecast for single digits
and low 10s F. Winds will be up that morning, resulting in wind
chills dipping into the negative single digits before noon...and not
climbing above the single digits through the afternoon.
Temperatures begin to moderate with a more southerly fetch to the
sfc winds on Tues night/Wed, though still well below seasonal norms.
Minor warm again into the weekend...but still below normal and in
advance of yet another potentially snowy weekend. Next chance for
precip was prev on Thursday but now the GFS and ECMWF are starting
to have major conflicts in the passage of the upper trof from Thurs
to Sat...and the forecast blend is masking some of the more radical
differences. Keeping the pop mentions to a minimum and running more
in line with the drier ECMWF for now, as opposed to a more
aggressive GFS. Best chances for precip associated with the wave
after that going into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Scattered light snow and flurries early this afternoon with MVFR
ceilings 1-3k ft and vsbys 3-5 miles at times with light fog/haze
as well. A more widespread shield of light snow will develop from
the sw during mid afternoon into early evening and affect areas
mainly se of I-55 with lowest vsbys of 1-3 miles at DEC and CMI
from 21Z-01Z and possible IFR ceilings. A cold front near the
IA/IL border into southeast MO will move east acorss central IL
this evening. Light snow will diminish to scattered flurries
behind the cold front during tonight and Monday morning and low
clouds may scatter out for a time, but MVFR clouds return during
Monday morning as next short wave trof settles in. SW winds 5-9
this afternoon to shift west this evening and then WNW around 10
kts overnight and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 18-25 kts Monday
morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Monday FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Forecast overall looks on track and just a few adjustments needed
today. Will maintain the winter weather advisory from 3 pm through
tonight across southeast third of CWA. Have 1-2 inches of snow se
of a Taylorville to Decatur to Champaign line to near I-70 this
afternoon/evening and 2-3 inches of snow from I-70 southeast with
highest amounts near the Wabash river. Just a dusting to less than
half inch of snow north of I-72 today. Highs similar to yesterday
in the mid to upper 30s with mildest readings in southeast IL with
Lawrenceville reaching near 40F. SW winds 5-10 mph today and become
WSW this evening as cold front over eastern IA/MO moves east
across IL during this evening. Widespread snow will develop across
se third of CWA during this afternoon and then diminish behind the
cold front later this evening and overnight. Wind will become WNW
later tonight and Monday morning and increase to 15 to 25 mph
ushering in colder air and causing some blowing snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
High pressure sliding off to the east over the Atlantic Seaboard
this morning as a lull in the pressure gradient moves into the
region. Though the sfc pattern is weak, an upper level disturbance
from the desert SW is moving out and across the region today, with
the best chances for snow showers later this afternoon/evening and
into the overnight hours. Weak winds today becoming increasingly
southwesterly ahead of the advancing showers. A larger trof over
the region and backing into the Plains, still associated with some
light snow showers and flurries also making its way across the
region and the Great Lakes. Have some pops in today for the areas
along and north of a line from Havana to Bloomington, mainly during
the first half of the day. The next wave moving into the middle of
the state by mid day from the SW. Latest 00z model runs in the
SREF, the NAM, the GFS, the GEM, the ECMWF...all shifting a bit
further north with the snow accumulation. Models focusing just
north of I-70 corridor between 21z and 00z with the heaviest of the
snowfall, spreading southward and then slowly shifting southward
with the chances for more snowfall beyond 00z. Snowfall totals
close to 2 to 3 inches along and south of a line from Edgar to
Shelbyville...just barely reaching advisory criteria...but with the
first snow of the season, it being somewhat early for the SE, and
the chance for this to make a messy commute early on Monday, have
gone ahead with the headline at this time. Concern with the axis of
the early qpf shifting northward, that another row of counties may
be needed on the north side...but not nearly enough consistency in
the model runs to be comfortable with that. Borderline 1 to 2
inches in counties north of the advisory to a line from Springfield
to Champaign, but being some of the early accumulations, certainly
potential to make a mess.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Cold in the forecast not letting up. Several shots of cP air dipping
into the region from the north. Cyclonic flow aloft and plenty of
cold air lending to flurries for Monday afternoon. Temperatures on
the back side of that take a significant dive as 850 mb temps drop
into the -7C to -18C range by Monday afternoon. Early Tuesday
morning will be incredibly cold with lows forecast for single digits
and low 10s F. Winds will be up that morning, resulting in wind
chills dipping into the negative single digits before noon...and not
climbing above the single digits through the afternoon.
Temperatures begin to moderate with a more southerly fetch to the
sfc winds on Tues night/Wed, though still well below seasonal norms.
Minor warm again into the weekend...but still below normal and in
advance of yet another potentially snowy weekend. Next chance for
precip was prev on Thursday but now the GFS and ECMWF are starting
to have major conflicts in the passage of the upper trof from Thurs
to Sat...and the forecast blend is masking some of the more radical
differences. Keeping the pop mentions to a minimum and running more
in line with the drier ECMWF for now, as opposed to a more
aggressive GFS. Best chances for precip associated with the wave
after that going into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Variable cigs and vsbys across the forecast area this morning with
forecast soundings and the latest HRRR suggesting lower cigs will
hold over most of the area thru the afternoon hours as a weather
system pushes to the south of the TAF sites. This will bring
some scattered areas of light snow this morning with a steadier
snowfall developing along and south of a SPI to CMI line with MVFR
and local IFR cigs and vsbys in snow. Further north, mainly MVFR
with a tempo IFR group in this morning with some flurries and most
of the steadier snows staying just south of BMI. Models suggest
the system producing the snow will shift south and east this
evening with a gradual improving trend seen at PIA to VFR conditions
after 05z. Surface winds once again today will not be much of a
factor with south to southwest winds around 10 kts, with winds
becoming westerly tonight with a gradual increase in speeds to 10
to 15 kts in the 05z-08z time frame.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Monday FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
546 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...
256 AM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN IL SATURDAY EVENING
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED OVER SOUTHERN MI...AND ANOTHER WAVE
WILL PASS OVER WI TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW.
AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORT STREAMER MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS DOES OMEGA
SOUTH OF A VAPLO TO PONTIAC LINE. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THIS LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH UP TO AN INCH
OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE.
SNOW DIMINISHES THIS EVENING BUT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CWA AS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SATURATION IN THE DGZ AND FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/S VORT STREAMERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES SATURATION IN
THE DGZ SO HAVE FLURRIES IN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-88. AREAS NORTH OF
I-88 MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURRING MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH.
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 OVER NW INDIANA...AND MIN WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY EVEN
SEE WIND CHILLS DIP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOW 30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BULK OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE OVER THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LOWERED LOW TEMPS TO THE LOW TEENS DOWNTOWN TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUTLYING AREAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT 0 TO -10F DOWNTOWN AND
SOME OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE IN THE -10 TO -15F RANGE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMERS
STILL MOVING OVERHEAD...KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...AND A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTER COUNTY.
A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER NORTHERN WI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA DURING
THE DAY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED ACCUMULATING SNOW SINCE
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL BE. THINKING THE
BETTER FORCING FOR SNOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. WEDNESDAY
DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERS GREATLY AMONG GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FASTER PROGRESSION. IN
GENERAL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR AND A FEW SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW. A WARM UP IS STILL IN
STORE LATE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW EVENT BUT IT/S MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION SPECIFICS NOW.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE
THE CURRENT RECORD TEMPERATURES AT BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
...CHICAGO...
RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...22 IN 1903.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...8 IN 1880.
WEDNESDAY THE 19TH...10 IN 1894.
...ROCKFORD...
RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...28 IN 1951.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE:
TUESDAY THE 18TH...11 IN 1989.
WEDNESDAY THE 19TH...7 IN 1914.
KJB/MTF/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* PATCHY LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS.
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHEARING OUT ACROSS IOWA-WISCONSIN TODAY.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND MAINLY MVFR/OCNL IFR
CIGS AND VIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO ILLINOIS
THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVES EAST. AREA
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN INDIANA. OTHERWISE...
FLURRIES MAY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING WEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY MONDAY MORNING AS SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LGT SNOW TIMING AND VIS IMPACTS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES LIKELY. -SHSN POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND SHSN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CST
GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR LAKE MICHIGAN OPEN WATERS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
MAIN MARINE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
LAKES EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND LABRADOR THROUGH
MID-WEEK. TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
LAKE TO PRODUCE WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK DOES IT
LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY.
ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY
MID-DAY MONDAY...AND THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE NEARSHORE WATERS
OUT OF THE GALE WATCH IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AT THIS
TIME...ITS POSSIBLE SCA COULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM MONDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
528 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
High pressure sliding off to the east over the Atlantic Seaboard
this morning as a lull in the pressure gradient moves into the
region. Though the sfc pattern is weak, an upper level disturbance
from the desert SW is moving out and across the region today, with
the best chances for snow showers later this afternoon/evening and
into the overnight hours. Weak winds today becoming increasingly
southwesterly ahead of the advancing showers. A larger trof over
the region and backing into the Plains, still associated with some
light snow showers and flurries also making its way across the
region and the Great Lakes. Have some pops in today for the areas
along and north of a line from Havana to Bloomington, mainly during
the first half of the day. The next wave moving into the middle of
the state by mid day from the SW. Latest 00z model runs in the
SREF, the NAM, the GFS, the GEM, the ECMWF...all shifting a bit
further north with the snow accumulation. Models focusing just
north of I-70 corridor between 21z and 00z with the heaviest of the
snowfall, spreading southward and then slowly shifting southward
with the chances for more snowfall beyond 00z. Snowfall totals
close to 2 to 3 inches along and south of a line from Edgar to
Shelbyville...just barely reaching advisory criteria...but with the
first snow of the season, it being somewhat early for the SE, and
the chance for this to make a messy commute early on Monday, have
gone ahead with the headline at this time. Concern with the axis of
the early qpf shifting northward, that another row of counties may
be needed on the north side...but not nearly enough consistency in
the model runs to be comfortable with that. Borderline 1 to 2
inches in counties north of the advisory to a line from Springfield
to Champaign, but being some of the early accumulations, certainly
potential to make a mess.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Cold in the forecast not letting up. Several shots of cP air dipping
into the region from the north. Cyclonic flow aloft and plenty of
cold air lending to flurries for Monday afternoon. Temperatures on
the back side of that take a significant dive as 850 mb temps drop
into the -7C to -18C range by Monday afternoon. Early Tuesday
morning will be incredibly cold with lows forecast for single digits
and low 10s F. Winds will be up that morning, resulting in wind
chills dipping into the negative single digits before noon...and not
climbing above the single digits through the afternoon.
Temperatures begin to moderate with a more southerly fetch to the
sfc winds on Tues night/Wed, though still well below seasonal norms.
Minor warm again into the weekend...but still below normal and in
advance of yet another potentially snowy weekend. Next chance for
precip was prev on Thursday but now the GFS and ECMWF are starting
to have major conflicts in the passage of the upper trof from Thurs
to Sat...and the forecast blend is masking some of the more radical
differences. Keeping the pop mentions to a minimum and running more
in line with the drier ECMWF for now, as opposed to a more
aggressive GFS. Best chances for precip associated with the wave
after that going into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Variable cigs and vsbys across the forecast area this morning with
forecast soundings and the latest HRRR suggesting lower cigs will
hold over most of the area thru the afternoon hours as a weather
system pushes to the south of the TAF sites. This will bring
some scattered areas of light snow this morning with a steadier
snowfall developing along and south of a SPI to CMI line with MVFR
and local IFR cigs and vsbys in snow. Further north, mainly MVFR
with a tempo IFR group in this morning with some flurries and most
of the steadier snows staying just south of BMI. Models suggest
the system producing the snow will shift south and east this
evening with a gradual improving trend seen at PIA to VFR conditions
after 05z. Surface winds once again today will not be much of a
factor with south to southwest winds around 10 kts, with winds
becoming westerly tonight with a gradual increase in speeds to 10
to 15 kts in the 05z-08z time frame.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Monday FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
CLEARLY DEFINED CLOUD STREETS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE A FEW HOURS
AGO BEGAN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE LAST HOUR AND
THESE HAVE MADE IT INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS FAR THE IMPACT
SEEMS TO BE VISIBILITIES ONLY AS LOW AS 2-3SM OR WITH NO VISIBILITY
IMPACT AT ALL. BASED ON HRRR AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM EXPECT THESE
SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY IN
INTENSITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO CUT OFF TIMING A LITTLE EARLY
BASED ON LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. APPEARS THESE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE WANING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z...AND TRIED TO DEPICT THIS
IN THE GRIDS. OPTED TO STICK WITH AN SPS TO HANDLE THE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HWO AND WX
STORY WILL ALSO REFLECT THE IMPACTS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TRAVEL WX.
LEFT IN CHANCES FOR FLURRIES FOR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS ENERGY FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION. BIG STORY THEN TURNS TO TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO
-20-22 TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO GET DOWN TO 7-10 FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE 0 TO -10 RANGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON CENTRAL INDIANA IS FEELING THE IMPACT OF WIND CHILLS IN
THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. TUESDAY MAY BREAK THE RECORD FOR LOW
MAXIMUM WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 20S.
FORECASTING 19 FOR KIND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE HIGH TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AGAIN WE WILL BE PLAGUED
WITH STRONG WINDS THAT WILL MAKE FOR COLD WIND CHILLS EVEN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE SNOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY AS THE AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...READINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE FREEZING MARK ON WEDNESDAY...FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM COLD AND DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TO MILD AND WET WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND ON.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST AS MODELS MOVE AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN MOVING PRECIPITATION QUICKER OUR WAY IN THE LATEST RUN.
THEY ALL BRING IN SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE IT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIG
ISSUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 INDICATE FREEZING RAIN THE
MOST LIKELY TYPE SOUTH HALF FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST AREAS SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THOSE AREAS THEN AND
THEN ALL RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS BLEND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS BRING IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WITH THE UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO KIND. AT KLAF DECIDED TO KEEP WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON TIGHTER GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT SNOW FROM 3 TO 5Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AT THIS TIME THINK
THESE CONDITIONS COULD MISS OR AT LEAST HAVE NO CATEGORY IMPACT AT
THE OTHER SITES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SUBSIDE
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL AROUND 15Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
ONE MODEL DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
THIS WOULD BE SPORADIC AT BEST SO WILL LEAVE OUT. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT DONE AT THE SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FLURRY OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN IMPACT ON CATEGORY.
CEILINGS COULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS EARLY IN THE MORNING IN
THE TIME HEIGHTS. THINK MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SOLID MVFR STRATOCU DECK BY LATE MORNING WITH UPPER LOW OVERHEAD.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD START BACK UP BY AROUND 15Z AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
CLEARLY DEFINED CLOUD STREETS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE A FEW HOURS
AGO BEGAN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE LAST HOUR AND
THESE HAVE MADE IT INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS FAR THE IMPACT
SEEMS TO BE VISIBILITIES ONLY AS LOW AS 2-3SM OR WITH NO VISIBILITY
IMPACT AT ALL. BASED ON HRRR AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM EXPECT THESE
SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY IN
INTENSITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO CUT OFF TIMING A LITTLE EARLY
BASED ON LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. APPEARS THESE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE WANING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z...AND TRIED TO DEPICT THIS
IN THE GRIDS. OPTED TO STICK WITH AN SPS TO HANDLE THE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HWO AND WX
STORY WILL ALSO REFLECT THE IMPACTS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TRAVEL WX.
LEFT IN CHANCES FOR FLURRIES FOR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS ENERGY FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION. BIG STORY THEN TURNS TO TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO
-20-22 TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO GET DOWN TO 7-10 FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE 0 TO -10 RANGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON CENTRAL INDIANA IS FEELING THE IMPACT OF WIND CHILLS IN
THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. TUESDAY MAY BREAK THE RECORD FOR LOW
MAXIMUM WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 20S.
FORECASTING 19 FOR KIND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE HIGH TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AGAIN WE WILL BE PLAGUED
WITH STRONG WINDS THAT WILL MAKE FOR COLD WIND CHILLS EVEN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE SNOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY AS THE AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...READINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE FREEZING MARK ON WEDNESDAY...FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM COLD AND DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TO MILD AND WET WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND ON.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST AS MODELS MOVE AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN MOVING PRECIPITATION QUICKER OUR WAY IN THE LATEST RUN.
THEY ALL BRING IN SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE IT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIG
ISSUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 INDICATE FREEZING RAIN THE
MOST LIKELY TYPE SOUTH HALF FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST AREAS SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THOSE AREAS THEN AND
THEN ALL RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS BLEND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS BRING IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 608 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SUBSIDE
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL AROUND 15Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
ONE MODEL DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
THIS WOULD BE SPORADIC AT BEST SO WILL LEAVE OUT. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT DONE AT THE SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FLURRY OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN IMPACT ON CATEGORY.
CEILINGS COULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS EARLY IN THE MORNING IN
THE TIME HEIGHTS. THINK MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SOLID MVFR STRATOCU DECK BY LATE MORNING WITH UPPER LOW OVERHEAD.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD START BACK UP BY AROUND 15Z AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
A WEAK SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND INTO OHIO. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND INDIANA
STATE LINE TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
NUMEROUS ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE
THE CALENDAR INDICATING MID NOVEMBER MOTHER NATURE TREATING US TO
DECEMBER LIKE WEATHER. WATER VAPOR TELLS THE STORY EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AND MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ARCTIC AIR
QUICKLY INVADING BEHIND A POLAR COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON VAPOR. SHEARED VORTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND WITH THE MODEST MOISTURE MODELS HINTING AT LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND EVEN SOME DOUBT ABOUT HOW MUCH LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE TO
ALLOW FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. DID CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF/SNOW IN GRIDS.
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS ALSO ALLOWED A RARE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED LAKE PLUME TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHERN BERRIEN
COUNTY. BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIP OR JUST
OUTSIDE THE COUNTY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE
ALREADY SEEN A FEW BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH WITH VISIBILITY
DROPPING BELOW A MILE. HIRES GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THIS PLUME
MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP SO ALLOWED LIKELY POPS TO RIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG ANY BAND PERSISTS.
NEXT CONCERN LIES WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHEARED SHORT WAVES
ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH 2-3 G/KG OF
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE POTENT FACTOR FOR
DEVELOPING BAND OF MODERATE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE
STRONG DEVELOPING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. NAM12 SHOWS A 130KT JET STREAK AT 00Z WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION PASSING OVER SOUTHERN CWA WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD LIFT WITH THE REGION OF
BEST FGEN FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF QPF WITH AVERAGE RATIOS OF AROUND
15 TO 1. USING WPC QPF AND NAM12 RATIOS YIELDS A BAND OF GENERAL 2
TO 4 INCHES FROM GRANT COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PUTNAM COUNTY. MESOSCALE
PROCESSES MAY ALLOW A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT QUESTION IS IF THAT
WILL BE WITHIN OUR CWA OR JUST SOUTH WHERE A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES. COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON AMOUNTS HAS LED TO ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM ABOUT MARION TO VAN WERT AND OTTAWA FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH 14Z MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON FOR THIS REGION AND
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
...ARCTIC FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER LOW TRACK INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK END TO ANY REMAINING AREAS OF SNOW
IN FAR SE AREAS (WILL HOLD ONTO CHC POPS IN THE AM). COLD AIR WILL
QUICKLY FILTER IN MONDAY WITH THE FRONT LIKELY CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 21Z MON IF NOT BEFORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL
OCCUR EARLY ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EASTERN AREAS MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
WILL OTHERWISE SUFFER THE SAME FATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH WINDS
INCREASING IN ITS WAKE.
FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT ISSUES AS THE COLD AIR
STREAMS IN AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -15 TO -17 C LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
AS IS EXPECTED THE BATTLE IS ON WITH MODELS VARYING ON EXACT
TRAJECTORY OF THE FETCH...LOCATION OF ONE OR MORE BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. WHAT THEY DO ALL AGREE ON
IS EXTREME INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH AND FAVORABLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE CONSENSUS
AT LEAST POINTS TOWARDS BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES STILL IN THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOME
AREAS. NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED WITH LAKE
EFFECT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE SIGNALS AND INCREASING
CONFIDENCE WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE MENTIONED COUNTIES STARTING 12Z MON
INTO 00Z WEDS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL COME MAINLY FROM 00Z TUES
TO 00Z WEDS AS PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
GIVES THE SHOW SHOWERS A NICE BOOST (AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE POTENTIAL). WAY TO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC AMOUNTS
GIVEN WHAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY BANDS BUT SAFE TO SAY
WHEREVER THE BANDS SIT THEY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RATES OF
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. NOT TO
FORGET THE REST OF THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO
AT LEAST THE US-6 AND POINTS NORTH CORRIDOR INTO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
FLURRIES OR A PASSING LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER SOUTH OF 6.
A COLD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER TUESDAY
NIGHT AS PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE. TUESDAY HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH NOT MUCH DIURNAL
SWING AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
(A SOLID 30 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL). LOW MAX TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT SBN AND FWA WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN ON TUESDAY (26 AND 24
RESPECTIVELY). LET`S NOT FORGET THE WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLE INFRINGING ON
MINUS 10 IN SOME AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BITTER COLD TEMPS
(BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS) IN THE HWO.
COLDEST AIR WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR MORE
COMFORTABLE...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FEW OVERALL
CHANGES AS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE REGION EVERY FEW DAYS. EXACT
TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS REMAIN MUDDLED SO RAN WITH BLEND OF MODELS
FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
LOWER LEVELS FINALLY SATURATED NEAR KSBN WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING. SHOULD
BE DONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER 06Z AS RADAR TRENDS ARE DECREASING SO
WILL CARRY A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE STAYED WITH VFR INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME MVFR
AND IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BUT NO SIGNS YET AND WITH VFR CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE OPTED TO HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SYSTEM SNOW SPREADING EAST LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. KSBN WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST SO ONLY SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THERE WITH NO
RESTRICTION TO VIS. KFWA WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER LIFT AND
MOISTURE WITH VIS DROPPING TO IFR LEVELS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR INZ026-027-032>034.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ077-078.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR OHZ016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 553 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES OR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS PERIOD. WEAK
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN IA/NRN MO LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
THE BULK OF THIS BROAD/WEAK UVM WILL MAINLY GO TO SATURATION WITH
MORE FOCUSED FORCING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER (~1.5 G/KG). AS A RESULT
CONTINUED TREND TOWARD LOWER POPS/MORE VIRGA WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW AT BEST. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NRN BERRIEN/NW CASS COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN WHERE SW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 30S.
TRAILING SHEARED VORTICITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND CONSOLIDATING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET)
MODELED TO STREAK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS (BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST). AS FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS (HIGHS STILL 11-16F BELOW NORMAL) IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...THERE IS
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SNOW TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE POSITION...
INTENSITY...PHASING AND TIMING HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA. AS THE COLD AIR CHARGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THE
LAKE EFFECT WILL ENHANCE AND THE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST. NET
RESULT IS THAT THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AND DRAMATIC LINE BETWEEN
ACCUMULATION AND DUSTING OF SNOW. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING FOR LATER UPDATES.
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHAPE UP FOR A CONTINUED AND
PROLONGED COLD EXTENDED FORECAST. INITIAL SHOT OF COLD AIR SWEEPS IN
ON MONDAY. WEST COAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE AS A CONTINUED STREAM
OF COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY THE
WESTERLIES OFF OF THE ASIAN CONTINENT ARE QUICK ENERGETIC AS EVIDENT
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS WHIPPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND THESE CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
THE WEST COAST RIDGE.
EVEN WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST...GEM/EURO AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE FAMILIES ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...LEADING TO CONTINUED COLD...AND WITH THE
GREAT LAKES STILL DEVOID OF ICE AND WARM...LAKE EFFECT WILL PERSIST
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WESTERLY FLOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT OUR AREA WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM-WIDE SNOW WILL BE REMAIN SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
KEPT TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE LATER
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
LOWER LEVELS FINALLY SATURATED NEAR KSBN WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING. SHOULD
BE DONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER 06Z AS RADAR TRENDS ARE DECREASING SO
WILL CARRY A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE STAYED WITH VFR INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME MVFR
AND IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BUT NO SIGNS YET AND WITH VFR CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE OPTED TO HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SYSTEM SNOW SPREADING EAST LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. KSBN WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST SO ONLY SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THERE WITH NO
RESTRICTION TO VIS. KFWA WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER LIFT AND
MOISTURE WITH VIS DROPPING TO IFR LEVELS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Small vort along the Arkansas/Missouri border is producing some
showers which should move east during the evening. Leaned heavily
on the HRRR model for movement and location. Precip type is tricky
as we have already had sleet and rain reported with the current
light precip moving through the area. May see snow/sleet/rain
depending upon location. Do not expect much in the way of accumulation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Confidence has increased enough at this point to warrant a Winter
Weather Advisory for all except the southern Pennyrile region of
western KY for the Sunday night time frame. 12z numerical models
continue on track and in decent agreement with timing and QPF
amounts. The main question will be where the snow vs. sleet vs
rain line sets up Sunday evening, and how quickly it will sink
southeast across western KY during the night. Most models have
slowed the cooling aloft significantly enough that areas of the
southern Pennyrile may experience only rain until between midnight
and 4 AM. There may end up being an extended period of sleet over
much of the remainder of western Kentucky before going over to all
snow late in the evening. Areas along the Ohio River will likely
see a quicker transition to snow during the evening, while mostly
snow will fall at most locations north and west of there. When all
is said and done,
Most should wake Monday morning to a good inch or two of snow. The
exception may be the srn Pennyrile, where the transition is
later and more uncertain. Areas just northwest of that region may see
lighter snow totals if sleet ends up prevailing. On the other
hand, the system looks as though it will strengthen a bit as it
pulls northeast Sunday night. Because of this, am a bit concerned
that some areas up in sw IN and nw KY may end up locally closer to
4 inches. Will stick with an advisory for that region for now, and
let future shifts upgrade to warning headlines if this becomes
more apparent.
Wicked cold air for mid November is still slated to drive
southeast into the region behind the system early next week. Most
locations will not get above freezing on Monday. If we end up with
a layer of snow, lows Monday night may dip to near 10 degrees in
some locations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
GFS, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement Monday night through
Wednesday night showing surface high pressure sliding from the
southern Plains across the Gulf Coast states. As the high moves
southeast of our region, a return of southerly flow will help the
unseasonably cold temperatures improve for Wednesday, though
readings will still be well below normal. Models show a weak dry
cold front moving across the the region late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The wind shift will result in temperatures
dropping back off a few degrees.
For Thursday through Saturday, models diverge drastically with ECMWF
bringing a surface low moving northeast across the PAH forecast area
by 06z Friday. GFS and GEM both show a surface high over the middle
Mississippi Valley at the same time. Model ensembles lean toward
the latest ECMWF and throw in precip chances Thursday through
Saturday. Along with neighboring offices, pulled any precip chances
for Thursday, and toned back on pops a little through the rest of
the forecast. Next question is precip types. Soundings indicate
overall rain or snow, with the only deciding factor being surface
temperatures. Went rain/snow mix Thursday night through Friday
night, then just went rain on Saturday with temperatures reaching
the lower to middle 40s. Overall confidence is low with PoPs, but
believe at this point precip amounts would be minor.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1158 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Initial challenge for the next 1-3 hours will be the departure of
the remaining wintry precipitation and associated visibility
restriction from MVFR to VFR.
Beyond 12z, the next system should begin to lower VFR ceilings to
MVFR at KCGI...eventually working east KEVV/KOWB by 00z Monday. As
the ceilings lower with the onset of wintry precipitation
visibilities will range from 3-5 miles. A shift to low MVFR to IFR
ceilings will take place after dark on Sunday, as the upper level
system enhances over the WFO PAH TAF sites. Anticipate lower
visibilities closer to 06z Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
KYZ001>008-010-011-013>016-018>020.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
An impressive forcing/lift scenario this evening, as a low
level/low amplitude shortwave (at and below 700 mb) moved through
the region with a veering wind profile working down toward the
surface. The mandatory levels at 850/925 mb showed decent warm air
advection, providing the low level lift. The increasing winds from
700 to 250 mb provided the lift aloft.
The combination of lift through the layer, combined with the
transport of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the
mid-level moisture set the stage for efficient seeder feeder
development this evening. The greater intensity of the sleet
coincided well with the lift (omega) at the mean -15 Celciu level...a
good average for efficient dendritic growth from the mid-cloud
down to the lower cloud base.
The 11-3.9 micron GOES difference channel depicted the expansive
water cloud and the upper level seeder clouds well this evening,
even hinting at an widening of coverage as the jet max moved
through the area.
For the rest of this evening and through at least 3 am CST,
anticipate the coverage of the wintry precipitation will diminish
and move southeast as the wind field and effect shear for lift
move east as well.
Adjusted the weather to reflect mainly a northern transition to
intermittent light snow/snow flurries snow from the northwest, as
the volume of ice crystals lessen and the lift weakens with time.
The warm advection closer to the stronger wind fields to the south
should maintain sleet as the primary wintry precipitation, with a
possible change over to rain along the KY/TN border between
midnight and 2 am CST.
Precipitation should diminish significantly after 3 am CST.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Small vort along the Arkansas/Missouri border is producing some
showers which should move east during the evening. Leaned heavily
on the HRRR model for movement and location. Precip type is tricky
as we have already had sleet and rain reported with the current
light precip moving through the area. May see snow/sleet/rain
depending upon location. Do not expect much in the way of accumulation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Confidence has increased enough at this point to warrant a Winter
Weather Advisory for all except the southern Pennyrile region of
western KY for the Sunday night time frame. 12z numerical models
continue on track and in decent agreement with timing and QPF
amounts. The main question will be where the snow vs. sleet vs
rain line sets up Sunday evening, and how quickly it will sink
southeast across western KY during the night. Most models have
slowed the cooling aloft significantly enough that areas of the
southern Pennyrile may experience only rain until between midnight
and 4 AM. There may end up being an extended period of sleet over
much of the remainder of western Kentucky before going over to all
snow late in the evening. Areas along the Ohio River will likely
see a quicker transition to snow during the evening, while mostly
snow will fall at most locations north and west of there. When all
is said and done,
Most should wake Monday morning to a good inch or two of snow. The
exception may be the srn Pennyrile, where the transition is
later and more uncertain. Areas just northwest of that region may see
lighter snow totals if sleet ends up prevailing. On the other
hand, the system looks as though it will strengthen a bit as it
pulls northeast Sunday night. Because of this, am a bit concerned
that some areas up in sw IN and nw KY may end up locally closer to
4 inches. Will stick with an advisory for that region for now, and
let future shifts upgrade to warning headlines if this becomes
more apparent.
Wicked cold air for mid November is still slated to drive
southeast into the region behind the system early next week. Most
locations will not get above freezing on Monday. If we end up with
a layer of snow, lows Monday night may dip to near 10 degrees in
some locations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
GFS, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement Monday night through
Wednesday night showing surface high pressure sliding from the
southern Plains across the Gulf Coast states. As the high moves
southeast of our region, a return of southerly flow will help the
unseasonably cold temperatures improve for Wednesday, though
readings will still be well below normal. Models show a weak dry
cold front moving across the the region late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The wind shift will result in temperatures
dropping back off a few degrees.
For Thursday through Saturday, models diverge drastically with ECMWF
bringing a surface low moving northeast across the PAH forecast area
by 06z Friday. GFS and GEM both show a surface high over the middle
Mississippi Valley at the same time. Model ensembles lean toward
the latest ECMWF and throw in precip chances Thursday through
Saturday. Along with neighboring offices, pulled any precip chances
for Thursday, and toned back on pops a little through the rest of
the forecast. Next question is precip types. Soundings indicate
overall rain or snow, with the only deciding factor being surface
temperatures. Went rain/snow mix Thursday night through Friday
night, then just went rain on Saturday with temperatures reaching
the lower to middle 40s. Overall confidence is low with PoPs, but
believe at this point precip amounts would be minor.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 547 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Main difference and challenge with the 00z Saturday WFO PAH TAF
issuance is the addition of mixed wintry precipitation within the
WFO PAH County Warning area. Initial onset of precipitation
primarily consists of light snow and sleet, changing to a mix of
rain and snow. Kept a mention of a mix through the evening hours.
Overcast VFR ceilings at or above 5Kft should dominate through the
overnight hours, with lower VFR ceilings developing ater 21z
Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
KYZ001>008-010-011-013>016-018>020.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
18Z SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE 12Z FLIGHT AS EXPECTED.
PW WENT FROM 1.12 TO 1.47 INCHES. LI DOWN TO -0.5 WITH THE
0 TO 3 KM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASED TO 402 MSQ/SSQ.
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET WITH 40KT AT 1800FT. WINDS ARE
MIXING TO THE GROUND AND ALREADY GUSTING TO 32KT AT KMSY
AND 27KT AT KBTR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH TO
THE NORTHSHORE AND SW MS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. THE
TAKEAWAY IS WE ARE MORE UNSTABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC
AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z SOUNDING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 60MPH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED FOR
ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON. KEG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW THE INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER NOON IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL ONLY ADD TO CONVECTIVE STRENGTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 13/MH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
MUCH DIFFERENT LOOKING SOUNDING THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW MEASURED FROM THE SFC TO 6800FT THEN SSW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE ATMO. MOISTURE EVIDENT FROM THE SFC TO 10500FEET WITH A DRY
LATER ABOVE THROUGH 33KFT WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
MEASURED. PW UP TO 1.12 INCHES WITH THIS SOUNDING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
NOT THERE YET...HOWEVER THIS SNAP SHOT OF THE ATMO WILL MODIFY THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOME RIPE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM TEXAS COAST
TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLOTS ON A PLANER VIEW REVEALED A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH
VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AT 00Z.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. MANY POINTS
HAVE SEEN THEIR MORNING LOWS AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE BEFORE
SUNSET. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER CONUS AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE
MINNESOTA TO THE GREAT BASIN. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB SHOWED A
JET MAX AROUND 140 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE...FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DARKENING OR VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
MAX OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 60S AND POOL ALONG TO THE TROUGH AXIS TODAY AND
PLACING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS 500 TO
200MB OVER FORECAST AREA. VEERING WINDS WINDS TODAY SHOW INCREASE
OF LL HELICITY VALUES 300 TO 500 M/S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...MEANINGFUL CAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 100 TO 700J/KG ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...PW VALUES WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH WITH VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCING PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MANY AREAS ARE EXTREMELY DRY AND SHOULD
HANDLE THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO PUSH THE MOISTURE THROUGH BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE UP NORTH WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY AND SCOUR OUR THE REMAINING MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS DIVE AGAIN AND
POSSIBLY PUSH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO A HARD FREEZE
TUESDAY AND SOUTH SHORE TO A NEAR FREEZE. SOME MODERATION WILL
OCCUR BY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY LAG TIL SATURDAY SO
WILL THUNDER UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LOW...AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TAKING EFFECT
TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH ON MONDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE. FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS MAY STILL NECESSITATE A GALE WATCH OR
WARNING OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 40 47 23 44 / 100 30 10 0
BTR 40 49 23 47 / 100 30 10 0
ASD 45 52 25 47 / 100 40 10 0
MSY 47 51 32 47 / 100 40 10 0
GPT 48 53 27 47 / 100 40 10 0
PQL 50 54 26 47 / 100 40 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1012 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW THE INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
START MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER NOON IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL ONLY ADD TO CONVECTIVE STRENGTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 13/MH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
MUCH DIFFERENT LOOKING SOUNDING THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW MEASURED FROM THE SFC TO 6800FT THEN SSW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE ATMO. MOISTURE EVIDENT FROM THE SFC TO 10500FEET WITH A DRY
LATER ABOVE THROUGH 33KFT WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
MEASURED. PW UP TO 1.12 INCHES WITH THIS SOUNDING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
NOT THERE YET...HOWEVER THIS SNAP SHOT OF THE ATMO WILL MODIFY THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOME RIPE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM TEXAS COAST
TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLOTS ON A PLANER VIEW REVEALED A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH
VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AT 00Z.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. MANY POINTS
HAVE SEEN THEIR MORNING LOWS AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE BEFORE
SUNSET. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER CONUS AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE
MINNESOTA TO THE GREAT BASIN. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB SHOWED A
JET MAX AROUND 140 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE...FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DARKENING OR VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
MAX OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 60S AND POOL ALONG TO THE TROUGH AXIS TODAY AND
PLACING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS 500 TO
200MB OVER FORECAST AREA. VEERING WINDS WINDS TODAY SHOW INCREASE
OF LL HELICITY VALUES 300 TO 500 M/S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...MEANINGFUL CAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 100 TO 700J/KG ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...PW VALUES WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH WITH VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCING PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MANY AREAS ARE EXTREMELY DRY AND SHOULD
HANDLE THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO PUSH THE MOISTURE THROUGH BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE UP NORTH WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY AND SCOUR OUR THE REMAINING MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS DIVE AGAIN AND
POSSIBLY PUSH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO A HARD FREEZE
TUESDAY AND SOUTH SHORE TO A NEAR FREEZE. SOME MODERATION WILL
OCCUR BY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY LAG TIL SATURDAY SO
WILL THUNDER UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LOW...AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TAKING EFFECT
TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH ON MONDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE. FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS MAY STILL NECESSITATE A GALE WATCH OR
WARNING OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 42 49 23 / 100 100 30 10
BTR 77 42 50 24 / 100 100 30 10
ASD 76 48 53 27 / 90 100 40 10
MSY 77 48 51 32 / 90 100 40 10
GPT 71 51 54 28 / 90 100 40 10
PQL 72 54 56 27 / 90 100 40 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1014 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO UPGRADE BARAGA COUNTY FROM LES ADVISORY
TO WARNING. WE JUST RECEIVED A PUBLIC REPORT NEAR ALSTON OF 10" IN
12 HOURS IN THE PAST HR. GIVEN THAT MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE GOOD
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A STRETCH FOR PLACES ALONG THE HOUGHTON COUNTY BORDER TO
SEE STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 14 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO
SEE SOME STORM TOTALS APPROACH A FOOT OR MORE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS SE OF L`ANSE AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN HEAVIER
LES BANDS OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE REST OF THE HEADLINES..AND
SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
CONTINENT AND A SHARP...DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE CNTRL
PART. WITH THE RIDGE...THE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY PEAKS AT 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER FAR NW
CANADA WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM TROF IS DEEPENING TOWARD 3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW AVG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EVENING.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SFC
TROF EXTENDING SW INTO WRN UPPER MI. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL/CWPL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING UP PAST 500MB WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -19/-20C RESPECTIVELY...OBVIOUSLY A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HVY
SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LES TRENDS/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
HEADLINES.
MDT/HVY SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE AND ESSENTIALLY AN ABSENT INVERSION ALLOW FOR DEEP LAKE
EFFECT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DGZ IS ONLY AROUND 2KFT THICK...FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IT IDEALLY PLACED WITHIN MAX UPWARD MOTION. HIGHER
RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT IN AN AREA FROM KIWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND ALSO
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. THUS...
EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE W GETS A BETTER
BOOST FROM TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...A NICE LAKE NIPIGON CONNECTION AND
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE OFF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN BOTH AREAS MAY SEE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 20 INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW
DIMINISHES/ENDS. OTHERWISE...12-18 INCHES OF SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
THE RULE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY
EXTEND INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. IF DOMINANT BAND SETS UP AND
DOESN`T MOVE MUCH FOR SEVERAL HRS...AMOUNTS MAY SNEAK INTO WARNING
CRITERIA THERE. OVER NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH SUB WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN LACK OF
ENHANCING FACTORS THAT ARE PRESENT IN THE OTHER AFORMENTIONED
AREAS. BEST POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE SOUTH OF
PAINESDALE AND PERHAPS NRN KEWEENAW COUNTY AS LAKE NIPIGON
CONNECTION MAY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...SO THAT WILL BE A FACTOR
SUPPORTING MAINTAINING WARNING HEADLINES FOR NOW. CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE
COUNTY. HAVE LOWERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BRUSHING THE SHORELINE AREAS.
IN PARTICULAR...THE AREA TOWARD SHOT POINT MAY BE AFFECTED BY HVY
SNOW AT TIMES. WRN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY SEE FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NW.
FOR NOW...MAINTAINED MARQUETTE COUNTY ADVY...BUT EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP ADVY IF IT DOES APPEAR HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN E.
ON TUE...DEEP MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS E...LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC AND OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS
WILL SPELL DIMINISHING LES FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY. BACKING WINDS
WILL PUSH LINGERING -SHSN N OF KIWD DURING THE AFTN AND SHIFT THE
BACK EDGE OF LES EASTWARD WITH TIME IN CNTRL UPPER MI. THOSE BACKING
WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A NARROW ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING
N OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATER IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN A NARROW
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING N TOWARD HOUGHTON IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM FAR E ONTARIO
TO E QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
NEAR SFC WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE OUT OF THE W AND SW
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING LES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS DRY WX WILL BE TEMPORARILY...AS THE NEXT SFC TROUGH AND 500MB
SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE SET UP ACROSS MN ALREADY AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE ISN/T A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE
SFC THROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVING IN LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY /AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE NEARLY 40KTS
OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM/. WINDS ARE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 30KTS ABOVE
900MB. A 500MB LOW ROTATING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AN AVERAGE -14C WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND -19C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER ALOFT THAN THE ECMWF VALUES LISTED ABOVE. THIS SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS. CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
A CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT COOL NW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 0F. THE DEEPENING/EXITING SFC LOW OVER S
QUEBEC THURSDAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...AS LARGE 500MB TROUGH FINALLY EXITS INTO E
CANADA. LOOK FOR LES TO SLOWLY END ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME A BIT
MORE VARIANT...SHIFTING OUT OF THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM...WITH STRONG WAA
ON 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS FCST OFF BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER...WE MAY GET A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE
WHITE STUFF. MAY HAVE WAA SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS NW MN. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ACROSS LAKE MI.
WILL NOT GET TOO INTO THE DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN
TO NOTE THAT MUCH WARMER AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS
COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AS S-SSE WINDS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF
TRACKS A VERY STRONG/WRAPPED UP 927MB SFC LOW ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
FEATURE...ITS/S TRACK IS ACROSS LOWER MI STARTING OFF AT 989MB AND
WEAKENING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO
INCREASE OUR CURRENT WIND FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND GUSTY NW WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EXIT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND
THEN TO MVFR BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MOST OF FCST PERIOD WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH TRAILING SFC TROF SWEEPING SE. BEHIND THE TROF...EXPECT NW
GALES OF 35-40KT TO SRPEAD FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 45KT OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. GALES WILL END OVER THE W OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
E LATE TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COLD AIR/STRONG WINDS/HIGH WAVES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
15-25KT RANGE TUE NIGHT AS WINDS BACK SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF.
THAT TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE WED AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW WINDS TO AT LEAST 30KT. GALES MAY OCCUR OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL GALES ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
710 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
CONTINENT AND A SHARP...DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE CNTRL
PART. WITH THE RIDGE...THE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY PEAKS AT 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER FAR NW
CANADA WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM TROF IS DEEPENING TOWARD 3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW AVG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EVENING.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SFC
TROF EXTENDING SW INTO WRN UPPER MI. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL/CWPL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING UP PAST 500MB WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -19/-20C RESPECTIVELY...OBVIOUSLY A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HVY
SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LES TRENDS/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
HEADLINES.
MDT/HVY SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE AND ESSENTIALLY AN ABSENT INVERSION ALLOW FOR DEEP LAKE
EFFECT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DGZ IS ONLY AROUND 2KFT THICK...FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IT IDEALLY PLACED WITHIN MAX UPWARD MOTION. HIGHER
RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT IN AN AREA FROM KIWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND ALSO
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. THUS...
EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE W GETS A BETTER
BOOST FROM TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...A NICE LAKE NIPIGON CONNECTION AND
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE OFF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN BOTH AREAS MAY SEE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 20 INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW
DIMINISHES/ENDS. OTHERWISE...12-18 INCHES OF SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
THE RULE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY
EXTEND INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. IF DOMINANT BAND SETS UP AND
DOESN`T MOVE MUCH FOR SEVERAL HRS...AMOUNTS MAY SNEAK INTO WARNING
CRITERIA THERE. OVER NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH SUB WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN LACK OF
ENHANCING FACTORS THAT ARE PRESENT IN THE OTHER AFORMENTIONED
AREAS. BEST POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE SOUTH OF
PAINESDALE AND PERHAPS NRN KEWEENAW COUNTY AS LAKE NIPIGON
CONNECTION MAY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...SO THAT WILL BE A FACTOR
SUPPORTING MAINTAINING WARNING HEADLINES FOR NOW. CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE
COUNTY. HAVE LOWERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BRUSHING THE SHORELINE AREAS.
IN PARTICULAR...THE AREA TOWARD SHOT POINT MAY BE AFFECTED BY HVY
SNOW AT TIMES. WRN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY SEE FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NW.
FOR NOW...MAINTAINED MARQUETTE COUNTY ADVY...BUT EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP ADVY IF IT DOES APPEAR HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN E.
ON TUE...DEEP MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS E...LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC AND OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS
WILL SPELL DIMINISHING LES FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY. BACKING WINDS
WILL PUSH LINGERING -SHSN N OF KIWD DURING THE AFTN AND SHIFT THE
BACK EDGE OF LES EASTWARD WITH TIME IN CNTRL UPPER MI. THOSE BACKING
WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A NARROW ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING
N OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATER IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN A NARROW
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING N TOWARD HOUGHTON IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM FAR E ONTARIO
TO E QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
NEAR SFC WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE OUT OF THE W AND SW
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING LES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS DRY WX WILL BE TEMPORARILY...AS THE NEXT SFC TROUGH AND 500MB
SHORTWAVE LOOK TO BE SET UP ACROSS MN ALREADY AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE ISN/T A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE
SFC THROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVING IN LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY /AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE NEARLY 40KTS
OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM/. WINDS ARE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 30KTS ABOVE
900MB. A 500MB LOW ROTATING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AN AVERAGE -14C WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND -19C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER ALOFT THAN THE ECMWF VALUES LISTED ABOVE. THIS SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS. CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
A CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT COOL NW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 0F. THE DEEPENING/EXITING SFC LOW OVER S
QUEBEC THURSDAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...AS LARGE 500MB TROUGH FINALLY EXITS INTO E
CANADA. LOOK FOR LES TO SLOWLY END ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME A BIT
MORE VARIANT...SHIFTING OUT OF THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM...WITH STRONG WAA
ON 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS FCST OFF BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER...WE MAY GET A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE
WHITE STUFF. MAY HAVE WAA SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS NW MN. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ACROSS LAKE MI.
WILL NOT GET TOO INTO THE DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN
TO NOTE THAT MUCH WARMER AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS
COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AS S-SSE WINDS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF
TRACKS A VERY STRONG/WRAPPED UP 927MB SFC LOW ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
FEATURE...ITS/S TRACK IS ACROSS LOWER MI STARTING OFF AT 989MB AND
WEAKENING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO
INCREASE OUR CURRENT WIND FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND GUSTY NW WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EXIT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND
THEN TO MVFR BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MOST OF FCST PERIOD WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH TRAILING SFC TROF SWEEPING SE. BEHIND THE TROF...EXPECT NW
GALES OF 35-40KT TO SRPEAD FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 45KT OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. GALES WILL END OVER THE W OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
E LATE TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COLD AIR/STRONG WINDS/HIGH WAVES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
15-25KT RANGE TUE NIGHT AS WINDS BACK SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF.
THAT TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE WED AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW WINDS TO AT LEAST 30KT. GALES MAY OCCUR OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL GALES ARE
EXPECTED THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1105 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS AN ARCTIC BRANCH UPR
TROF CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG OVER WRN CANADA. A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU MN IS EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR BRANCH WLY FLOW
DOMINATING THE CONUS AND BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN TO THE E HALF
OF MN...MUCH OF WI AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME UPR DVGC
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP MOISTENING ALOFT AND FORCING THIS AREA OF SN...
ONLY WEAK LLVL MSTR INFLOW THAT IS LIMITING PWAT TO NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 0.33 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 1 G/KG IS LIMITING THE OVERALL SN INTENSITY.
SINCE H85 TEMPS ARE ABOUT -14C...THE LLVL WSW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME
LES TO THE KEWEENAW. BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE LLVL AIR IN NRN MN
AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE INTENSITY
OF THIS SN. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM IN SCENTRAL CANADA...A VERY
STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING SEWD
NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SN TRENDS/AMOUNTS OVER
MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE THAT WL BE
MOVING THRU WI. FOCUS FOR LATER TNGT SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SN
OVER MAINLY THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
TODAY...THE SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY
ENEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z AND THEN INTO SE ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTN. AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE EXITING BY 18Z AND GIVING WAY TO SOME
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS
TENDING TO BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING SHRTWV IN SCENTRAL
CANADA AND MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTED FARTHER TO
THE N AND RADAR TRENDS/SFC OBS INDICATE THE SN AREA IS MOVING
FARTHER TO THE N...INCRSD POPS OVER AREA S OF A LINE FM ABOUT
IRONWOOD TO MARQUETTE. BUT MODEL QPF IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...SO ANY SN ACCUM WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LIMITED
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND POOR SN GROWTH GIVEN ELEVATED AREA OF FORCING WELL
ABOVE LOWER DGZ. THE LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END BY 18Z FOLLOWING THE
EXIT OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY THRU THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD NW MN...EXPECT THE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW EARLY THIS MRNG TO
SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HIER RES MODELS
INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT BACK ENUF TO BRING MUCH IF ANY LES INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TODAY. BUT WL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS OVER
THE SE PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES LATE TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY.
OTRW...DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...THE BACKING LLVL FLOW
WL ALLOW SOME LO CLDS IN WI TO MOVE INTO UPR MI...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE WL BE
NEAR LK SUP...WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE NW DIGS SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP AND CLOSES
OFF BY 12Z MON...BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE MSTR STARVED
COMMA TAIL OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SWING ACROSS UPR MI. ONCE
AGAIN...AN ABSENCE OF SGFNT LLVL MOISTENING WL BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL BE LATE
OVER THE W...WHERE THE COLD FNT/ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHRTWV WL ARRIVE LATE. ALSO MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIER POPS TO THE
E OF MANISTIQUE-NEWBERRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LES
OFF LK MI AS THE INCOMING DYNAMICS COINCIDE WITH A LLVL FLOW BACKED
SUFFICIENTLY TO THE SSW FOR SOME LK EFFECT ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
ONCE THIS COMMA TAIL RIBBON OF FORCING PASSES TO THE E LATE...THE
WINDS MAY VEER ENUF TO DIMINISH THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
A LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE THE KEY FEATURE IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND STARTING TO
COME ONSHORE AT 12Z. AS THIS THIS PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING LAKE EFFECT
(DELTA-T VALUES ABOVE 20) OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REALLY SURGE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST
AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. THE COOLING ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UTILIZE THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 15-17KFT RANGE. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO REALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST HALF. WITH PLENTY OF UPWARD MOTION (LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF
700-800 J/KG) AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE/EQL VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. PLUS...WITH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING RIGHT IN THE DGZ...WOULD
EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 20S (HELD DOWN SOME FROM
THE TRADITIONALLY HIGHER VALUES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS).
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND LEAD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE SNOWBELTS OVER THE WEST IN THE 5
TO 11 INCH RANGE BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW RATIOS HELPED BY WEAKER WINDS AND ALL OF
THE CLOUD BEING IN THE DGZ.
THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. 00Z RUNS LOOK TO HAVE SPED
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS/SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE INTERESTING SINCE THE WIND PROFILE
WOULD SUPPORT NORTH WIND LES AT 850MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GENERALLY
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT NNW WIND DIRECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THE BANDS GINNING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND
AIDING SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION THE LES INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY AND WITH COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORELINE...WOULD EXPECT
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS SHOULD CARRY THE LAKE EFFECT WELL INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN DELTA AND SOUTHWEST SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. FOR MARQUETTE
AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES...EXPECT 24HR SNOWFALL TOTALS (MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING) IN THE 5 TO 11 INCH RANGE
ALSO...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
ALGER COUNTY. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE LAKE
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN THE DGZ AND ENABLE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VERY FLUFFY ACCUMULATION AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST.
SO HOW TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL HEADLINES. WILL ISSUE A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON...NRN. HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW...THOUGHT THE WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40MPH RANGE WOULD CREATE ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN
THE WATCH. GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS BUT A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE WARNING SNOWFALL. AS FOR FARTHER
EAST...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. THINK BARAGA/MARQUETTE
ARE SOLID LES ADVISORIES...BUT BELIEVE WESTERN ALGER COUNTY WILL
SEE WARNING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY NIGHT. DEBATED ISSUING A WATCH FOR
ALGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDED WIND FACTOR...BUT WAS CONCERNED
THERE WOULD BE ASSUMPTIONS MADE THAT MARQUETTE/BARAGA WOULDN/T
EXPERIENCE ANY IMPACTS SINCE THEY WEREN/T IN A WATCH (EVEN THOUGH
THEY WOULD SUPPORT HAVING AN ADVISORY). THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT
FOR NOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO CONVERT THE WATCH OVER
THE WEST TO WARNING/ADVISORY AND START THE ADVISORY TRANSITION TO
THE EAST FOR SOME OF THE OTHER COUNTIES. AT THAT POINT A WATCH
COULD BE ISSUED.
THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS PERIOD OF COLD AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS (KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS) AS WINDS BACK. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND USHERING IN COLD AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD SWITCH WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER THE EAST. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
MODERATE-HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO/EHWO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES TRYING TO WARM TOWARDS NORMAL AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRUSH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING LAKE EFFECT CONFINED TO THE WESTERLY WIND
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME OF THE MODELS OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
EXPECT TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO THE CEILINGS/VIS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH OVER W ONTARIO AND MN THIS
AFTERNOON SWEEPS OVER UPPER MI THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN IMPACT AVIATION WISE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER AT
LEAST 04Z MONDAY...AFTER THAT THE MAIN TROUGH WILL TURN OUR SW WINDS
BACK TO THE NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW TO IWD
AND CMX...INTENSIFYING AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
MONDAY WITH MAINLY MID TO LOW END MVFR CEILINGS. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES REMAIN POSTED FOR IWD AND CMX AREAS FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY ON. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AT IWD FROM 12-18Z MONDAY. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD GET TO CMX AS WELL...BUT MAY BE A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER. BLOWING SNOW COULD HELP REDUCE VIS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY EXIT
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY...COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL ISSUE A GALE
WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED GALES...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (UP TO 30KTS) WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ242>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
636 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS AN ARCTIC BRANCH UPR
TROF CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG OVER WRN CANADA. A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU MN IS EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR BRANCH WLY FLOW
DOMINATING THE CONUS AND BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN TO THE E HALF
OF MN...MUCH OF WI AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME UPR DVGC
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP MOISTENING ALOFT AND FORCING THIS AREA OF SN...
ONLY WEAK LLVL MSTR INFLOW THAT IS LIMITING PWAT TO NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 0.33 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 1 G/KG IS LIMITING THE OVERALL SN INTENSITY.
SINCE H85 TEMPS ARE ABOUT -14C...THE LLVL WSW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME
LES TO THE KEWEENAW. BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE LLVL AIR IN NRN MN
AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE INTENSITY
OF THIS SN. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM IN SCENTRAL CANADA...A VERY
STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING SEWD
NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SN TRENDS/AMOUNTS OVER
MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE THAT WL BE
MOVING THRU WI. FOCUS FOR LATER TNGT SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SN
OVER MAINLY THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
TODAY...THE SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY
ENEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z AND THEN INTO SE ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTN. AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE EXITING BY 18Z AND GIVING WAY TO SOME
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS
TENDING TO BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING SHRTWV IN SCENTRAL
CANADA AND MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTED FARTHER TO
THE N AND RADAR TRENDS/SFC OBS INDICATE THE SN AREA IS MOVING
FARTHER TO THE N...INCRSD POPS OVER AREA S OF A LINE FM ABOUT
IRONWOOD TO MARQUETTE. BUT MODEL QPF IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...SO ANY SN ACCUM WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LIMITED
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND POOR SN GROWTH GIVEN ELEVATED AREA OF FORCING WELL
ABOVE LOWER DGZ. THE LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END BY 18Z FOLLOWING THE
EXIT OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY THRU THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD NW MN...EXPECT THE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW EARLY THIS MRNG TO
SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HIER RES MODELS
INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT BACK ENUF TO BRING MUCH IF ANY LES INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TODAY. BUT WL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS OVER
THE SE PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES LATE TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY.
OTRW...DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...THE BACKING LLVL FLOW
WL ALLOW SOME LO CLDS IN WI TO MOVE INTO UPR MI...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE WL BE
NEAR LK SUP...WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE NW DIGS SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP AND CLOSES
OFF BY 12Z MON...BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE MSTR STARVED
COMMA TAIL OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SWING ACROSS UPR MI. ONCE
AGAIN...AN ABSENCE OF SGFNT LLVL MOISTENING WL BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL BE LATE
OVER THE W...WHERE THE COLD FNT/ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHRTWV WL ARRIVE LATE. ALSO MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIER POPS TO THE
E OF MANISTIQUE-NEWBERRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LES
OFF LK MI AS THE INCOMING DYNAMICS COINCIDE WITH A LLVL FLOW BACKED
SUFFICIENTLY TO THE SSW FOR SOME LK EFFECT ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
ONCE THIS COMMA TAIL RIBBON OF FORCING PASSES TO THE E LATE...THE
WINDS MAY VEER ENUF TO DIMINISH THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
A LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE THE KEY FEATURE IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND STARTING TO
COME ONSHORE AT 12Z. AS THIS THIS PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING LAKE EFFECT
(DELTA-T VALUES ABOVE 20) OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REALLY SURGE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST
AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. THE COOLING ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UTILIZE THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 15-17KFT RANGE. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO REALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST HALF. WITH PLENTY OF UPWARD MOTION (LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF
700-800 J/KG) AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE/EQL VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. PLUS...WITH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING RIGHT IN THE DGZ...WOULD
EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 20S (HELD DOWN SOME FROM
THE TRADITIONALLY HIGHER VALUES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS).
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND LEAD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE SNOWBELTS OVER THE WEST IN THE 5
TO 11 INCH RANGE BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW RATIOS HELPED BY WEAKER WINDS AND ALL OF
THE CLOUD BEING IN THE DGZ.
THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. 00Z RUNS LOOK TO HAVE SPED
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS/SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE INTERESTING SINCE THE WIND PROFILE
WOULD SUPPORT NORTH WIND LES AT 850MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GENERALLY
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT NNW WIND DIRECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THE BANDS GINNING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND
AIDING SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION THE LES INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY AND WITH COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORELINE...WOULD EXPECT
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS SHOULD CARRY THE LAKE EFFECT WELL INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN DELTA AND SOUTHWEST SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. FOR MARQUETTE
AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES...EXPECT 24HR SNOWFALL TOTALS (MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING) IN THE 5 TO 11 INCH RANGE
ALSO...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
ALGER COUNTY. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE LAKE
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN THE DGZ AND ENABLE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VERY FLUFFY ACCUMULATION AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST.
SO HOW TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL HEADLINES. WILL ISSUE A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON...NRN. HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW...THOUGHT THE WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40MPH RANGE WOULD CREATE ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN
THE WATCH. GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS BUT A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE WARNING SNOWFALL. AS FOR FARTHER
EAST...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. THINK BARAGA/MARQUETTE
ARE SOLID LES ADVISORIES...BUT BELIEVE WESTERN ALGER COUNTY WILL
SEE WARNING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY NIGHT. DEBATED ISSUING A WATCH FOR
ALGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDED WIND FACTOR...BUT WAS CONCERNED
THERE WOULD BE ASSUMPTIONS MADE THAT MARQUETTE/BARAGA WOULDN/T
EXPERIENCE ANY IMPACTS SINCE THEY WEREN/T IN A WATCH (EVEN THOUGH
THEY WOULD SUPPORT HAVING AN ADVISORY). THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT
FOR NOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO CONVERT THE WATCH OVER
THE WEST TO WARNING/ADVISORY AND START THE ADVISORY TRANSITION TO
THE EAST FOR SOME OF THE OTHER COUNTIES. AT THAT POINT A WATCH
COULD BE ISSUED.
THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS PERIOD OF COLD AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS (KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS) AS WINDS BACK. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND USHERING IN COLD AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD SWITCH WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER THE EAST. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
MODERATE-HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO/EHWO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES TRYING TO WARM TOWARDS NORMAL AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRUSH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING LAKE EFFECT CONFINED TO THE WESTERLY WIND
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME OF THE MODELS OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE GREAT LKS SHIFTS TO THE E
OF UPR MI BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING -SN TO END THIS MRNG
AT THE TAF SITES. BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL STILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS EXCEPT AT IWD...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW WL
ALLOW FOR A VFR CLD BASE. THE LOWER CIGS AT CMX AND SAW ARE LIKELY
TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER
AIR. THE APRCH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/LO PRES TROF WL BRING THE
THREAT OF MORE SHSN AND CAUSE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST
MVFR AT THE WRN CMX/IWD SITES LATER TNGT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY EXIT
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY...COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL ISSUE A GALE
WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED GALES...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (UP TO 30KTS) WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ242>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS AN ARCTIC BRANCH UPR
TROF CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG OVER WRN CANADA. A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU MN IS EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR BRANCH WLY FLOW
DOMINATING THE CONUS AND BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN TO THE E HALF
OF MN...MUCH OF WI AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME UPR DVGC
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP MOISTENING ALOFT AND FORCING THIS AREA OF SN...
ONLY WEAK LLVL MSTR INFLOW THAT IS LIMITING PWAT TO NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 0.33 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 1 G/KG IS LIMITING THE OVERALL SN INTENSITY.
SINCE H85 TEMPS ARE ABOUT -14C...THE LLVL WSW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME
LES TO THE KEWEENAW. BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE LLVL AIR IN NRN MN
AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE INTENSITY
OF THIS SN. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM IN SCENTRAL CANADA...A VERY
STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING SEWD
NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SN TRENDS/AMOUNTS OVER
MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE THAT WL BE
MOVING THRU WI. FOCUS FOR LATER TNGT SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SN
OVER MAINLY THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
TODAY...THE SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY
ENEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z AND THEN INTO SE ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTN. AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE EXITING BY 18Z AND GIVING WAY TO SOME
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS
TENDING TO BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING SHRTWV IN SCENTRAL
CANADA AND MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTED FARTHER TO
THE N AND RADAR TRENDS/SFC OBS INDICATE THE SN AREA IS MOVING
FARTHER TO THE N...INCRSD POPS OVER AREA S OF A LINE FM ABOUT
IRONWOOD TO MARQUETTE. BUT MODEL QPF IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...SO ANY SN ACCUM WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LIMITED
ABSOLUTE MSTR AND POOR SN GROWTH GIVEN ELEVATED AREA OF FORCING WELL
ABOVE LOWER DGZ. THE LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END BY 18Z FOLLOWING THE
EXIT OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY THRU THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD NW MN...EXPECT THE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW EARLY THIS MRNG TO
SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HIER RES MODELS
INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT BACK ENUF TO BRING MUCH IF ANY LES INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TODAY. BUT WL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS OVER
THE SE PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES LATE TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY.
OTRW...DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...THE BACKING LLVL FLOW
WL ALLOW SOME LO CLDS IN WI TO MOVE INTO UPR MI...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE WL BE
NEAR LK SUP...WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE NW DIGS SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP AND CLOSES
OFF BY 12Z MON...BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE MSTR STARVED
COMMA TAIL OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SWING ACROSS UPR MI. ONCE
AGAIN...AN ABSENCE OF SGFNT LLVL MOISTENING WL BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL BE LATE
OVER THE W...WHERE THE COLD FNT/ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHRTWV WL ARRIVE LATE. ALSO MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIER POPS TO THE
E OF MANISTIQUE-NEWBERRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LES
OFF LK MI AS THE INCOMING DYNAMICS COINCIDE WITH A LLVL FLOW BACKED
SUFFICIENTLY TO THE SSW FOR SOME LK EFFECT ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
ONCE THIS COMMA TAIL RIBBON OF FORCING PASSES TO THE E LATE...THE
WINDS MAY VEER ENUF TO DIMINISH THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
A LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE THE KEY FEATURE IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND STARTING TO
COME ONSHORE AT 12Z. AS THIS THIS PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING LAKE EFFECT
(DELTA-T VALUES ABOVE 20) OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REALLY SURGE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST
AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. THE COOLING ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UTILIZE THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 15-17KFT RANGE. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO REALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST HALF. WITH PLENTY OF UPWARD MOTION (LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF
700-800 J/KG) AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE/EQL VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. PLUS...WITH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING RIGHT IN THE DGZ...WOULD
EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 20S (HELD DOWN SOME FROM
THE TRADITIONALLY HIGHER VALUES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS).
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND LEAD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE SNOWBELTS OVER THE WEST IN THE 5
TO 11 INCH RANGE BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW RATIOS HELPED BY WEAKER WINDS AND ALL OF
THE CLOUD BEING IN THE DGZ.
THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. 00Z RUNS LOOK TO HAVE SPED
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS/SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE INTERESTING SINCE THE WIND PROFILE
WOULD SUPPORT NORTH WIND LES AT 850MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GENERALLY
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT NNW WIND DIRECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THE BANDS GINNING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND
AIDING SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION THE LES INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY AND WITH COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORELINE...WOULD EXPECT
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS SHOULD CARRY THE LAKE EFFECT WELL INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN DELTA AND SOUTHWEST SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. FOR MARQUETTE
AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES...EXPECT 24HR SNOWFALL TOTALS (MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING) IN THE 5 TO 11 INCH RANGE
ALSO...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
ALGER COUNTY. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE LAKE
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN THE DGZ AND ENABLE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VERY FLUFFY ACCUMULATION AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST.
SO HOW TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL HEADLINES. WILL ISSUE A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON...NRN. HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW...THOUGHT THE WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40MPH RANGE WOULD CREATE ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN
THE WATCH. GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS BUT A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE WARNING SNOWFALL. AS FOR FARTHER
EAST...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. THINK BARAGA/MARQUETTE
ARE SOLID LES ADVISORIES...BUT BELIEVE WESTERN ALGER COUNTY WILL
SEE WARNING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY NIGHT. DEBATED ISSUING A WATCH FOR
ALGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDED WIND FACTOR...BUT WAS CONCERNED
THERE WOULD BE ASSUMPTIONS MADE THAT MARQUETTE/BARAGA WOULDN/T
EXPERIENCE ANY IMPACTS SINCE THEY WEREN/T IN A WATCH (EVEN THOUGH
THEY WOULD SUPPORT HAVING AN ADVISORY). THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT
FOR NOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO CONVERT THE WATCH OVER
THE WEST TO WARNING/ADVISORY AND START THE ADVISORY TRANSITION TO
THE EAST FOR SOME OF THE OTHER COUNTIES. AT THAT POINT A WATCH
COULD BE ISSUED.
THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS PERIOD OF COLD AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS (KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS) AS WINDS BACK. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND USHERING IN COLD AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD SWITCH WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER THE EAST. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
MODERATE-HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO/EHWO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES TRYING TO WARM TOWARDS NORMAL AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRUSH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING LAKE EFFECT CONFINED TO THE WESTERLY WIND
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME OF THE MODELS OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
WESTERLY WINDS AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN/FLURRIES AT KCMX
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LATER IN THE NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
BACK TOWARD THE SW JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE N OF THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE AT KCMX THRU THE END THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME -SN/FLURRIES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY EXIT
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY...COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL ISSUE A GALE
WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED GALES...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (UP TO 30KTS) WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ242>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS AN ARCTIC BRANCH UPR
TROF CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG OVER WRN CANADA. A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU MN IS EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR BRANCH WLY FLOW
DOMINATING THE CONUS AND BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN TO THE E HALF
OF MN...MUCH OF WI AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME UPR DVGC
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP MOISTENING ALOFT AND FORCING THIS AREA OF SN...
ONLY WEAK LLVL MSTR INFLOW THAT IS LIMITING PWAT TO NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 0.33 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 1 G/KG IS LIMITING THE OVERALL SN INTENSITY.
SINCE H85 TEMPS ARE ABOUT -14C...THE LLVL WSW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME
LES TO THE KEWEENAW. BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE LLVL AIR IN NRN MN
AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE INTENSITY
OF THIS SN. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM IN SCENTRAL CANADA...A VERY
STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING SEWD
NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SN TRENDS/AMOUNTS OVER
MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE THAT WL BE
MOVING THRU WI. FOCUS FOR LATER TNGT SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SN
OVER MAINLY THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
TODAY...THE SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY
ENEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z AND THEN INTO SE ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTN. AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE EXITING BY 18Z AND GIVING WAY TO SOME
FAIRLY VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS
TENDING TO BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING SHRTWV IN SCENTRAL
CANADA AND MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTED FARTHER TO
THE N AND RADAR TRENDS/SFC OBS INDICATE THE SN AREA IS MOVING
FARTHER TO THE N...INCRSD POPS OVER AREA S OF A LINE FM ABOUT
IRONWOOD TO MARQUETTE. BUT MODEL QPF IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...SO ANY SN ACCUM WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LIMITED
ABSOLUTE MSTR. THE LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END BY 18Z FOLLOWING THE
EXIT OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY THRU THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD NW MN...EXPECT THE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW EARLY THIS MRNG TO
SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HIER RES MODELS
INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT BACK ENUF TO BRING MUCH IF ANY LES
INTO LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TODAY. BUT WL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS
OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES LATE TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY.
OTRW...DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...THE BACKING LLVL FLOW
WL ALLOW SOME LO CLDS IN WI TO MOVE INTO UPR MI...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE WL BE
NEAR LK SUP...WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE NW DIGS SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP AND CLOSES
OFF BY 12Z MON...BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE MSTR STARVED
COMMA TAIL OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SWING ACROSS UPR MI. ONCE
AGAIN...AN ABSENCE OF SGFNT LLVL MOISTENING WL BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SN. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL BE LATE
OVER THE W...WHERE THE COLD FNT/ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHRTWV WL ARRIVE LATE. ALSO MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIER POPS TO THE
E OF MANISTIQUE-NEWBERRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LES
OFF LK MI AS THE INCOMING DYNAMICS COINCIDE WITH A LLVL FLOW BACKED
SUFFICIENTLY TO THE SSW FOR SOME LK EFFECT ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
ONCE THIS COMMA TAIL RIBBON OF FORCING PASSES TO THE E LATE...THE
WINDS MAY VEER ENUF TO DIMINISH THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
A LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE THE KEY FEATURE IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND STARTING TO
COME ONSHORE AT 12Z. AS THIS THIS PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING LAKE EFFECT
(DELTA-T VALUES ABOVE 20) OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REALLY SURGE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST
AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST. THE COOLING ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO UTILIZE THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 15-17KFT RANGE. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO REALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST HALF. WITH PLENTY OF UPWARD MOTION (LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF
700-800 J/KG) AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE/EQL VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. PLUS...WITH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING RIGHT IN THE DGZ...WOULD
EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 20S (HELD DOWN SOME FROM
THE TRADITIONALLY HIGHER VALUES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS).
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND LEAD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE SNOWBELTS OVER THE WEST IN THE 5
TO 11 INCH RANGE BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW RATIOS HELPED BY WEAKER WINDS AND ALL OF
THE CLOUD BEING IN THE DGZ.
THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. 00Z RUNS LOOK TO HAVE SPED
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS/SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE INTERESTING SINCE THE WIND PROFILE
WOULD SUPPORT NORTH WIND LES AT 850MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GENERALLY
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT NNW WIND DIRECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THE BANDS GINNING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND
AIDING SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION THE LES INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY AND WITH COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORELINE...WOULD EXPECT
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS SHOULD CARRY THE LAKE EFFECT WELL INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN DELTA AND SOUTHWEST SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. FOR MARQUETTE
AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES...EXPECT 24HR SNOWFALL TOTALS (MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING) IN THE 5 TO 11 INCH RANGE
ALSO...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
ALGER COUNTY. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE LAKE
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN THE DGZ AND ENABLE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VERY FLUFFY ACCUMULATION AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST.
SO HOW TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL HEADLINES. WILL ISSUE A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON...NRN. HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW...THOUGHT THE WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40MPH RANGE WOULD CREATE ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN
THE WATCH. GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS BUT A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE WARNING SNOWFALL. AS FOR FARTHER
EAST...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. THINK BARAGA/MARQUETTE
ARE SOLID LES ADVISORIES...BUT BELIEVE WESTERN ALGER COUNTY WILL
SEE WARNING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY NIGHT. DEBATED ISSUING A WATCH FOR
ALGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDED WIND FACTOR...BUT WAS CONCERNED
THERE WOULD BE ASSUMPTIONS MADE THAT MARQUETTE/BARAGA WOULDN/T
EXPERIENCE ANY IMPACTS SINCE THEY WEREN/T IN A WATCH (EVEN THOUGH
THEY WOULD SUPPORT HAVING AN ADVISORY). THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT
FOR NOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO CONVERT THE WATCH OVER
THE WEST TO WARNING/ADVISORY AND START THE ADVISORY TRANSITION TO
THE EAST FOR SOME OF THE OTHER COUNTIES. AT THAT POINT A WATCH
COULD BE ISSUED.
THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS PERIOD OF COLD AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS (KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS) AS WINDS BACK. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND USHERING IN COLD AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD SWITCH WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER THE EAST. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
MODERATE-HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO/EHWO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES TRYING TO WARM TOWARDS NORMAL AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRUSH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING LAKE EFFECT CONFINED TO THE WESTERLY WIND
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME OF THE MODELS OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
WESTERLY WINDS AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN/FLURRIES AT KCMX
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LATER IN THE NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
BACK TOWARD THE SW JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE N OF THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE AT KCMX THRU THE END THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME -SN/FLURRIES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY EXIT
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY...COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL ISSUE A GALE
WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED GALES...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (UP TO 30KTS) WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
753 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES LOOK RATHER STRONG ON
RADAR WITH 20-25DBZ ECHOES SEEN BETWEEN 8700-10000FT. ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA SOUTH TOWARD KHYR.
THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A GRAVITY WAVE AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO BACK. THE RAP INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE GRAVITY WAVE BAND TO REFORM/INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE AS THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS
STRONG...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
AT 352 PM...SNOW HAD STARTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE OF IRON COUNTY. OUR SNOWFALL OBSERVER IN GILE
REPORTED 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL TODAY...BUT IT HAD JUST RECENTLY
STARTED TO INTENSIFY. FURTHER WEST...4 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN
IN THE IRON RIVER AREA...FROM PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THAT HAD SET
UP IN THAT AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS
GENERALLY SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH SHORE THERE WAS LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS DEFINITELY THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT A BIT TOO WESTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE WRF INDICATE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BECOME INTENSE DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF UP TO AN AMAZING 5 KM. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
AREA...FOR A TOTAL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. FURTHER WEST...WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY...WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY DROP
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW IN MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS EAST THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ALONG A DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
/AROUND 80 KTS AT H5/ AND WITH AROUND 24 HOURS OF COLD /850MB TEMPS
AS COLD AS -20 C/ NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS THERE MAY BE SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SKIES
WILL BE OVERCAST MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THURSDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE THURS/EARLY FRI RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
MID/LOW LEVELS FRI/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS RISE AS WARM AS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING FRI/SAT AND LIKELY ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH UP
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IF
IT TRENDS WESTWARD AS THE ECMWF IS HINTING THEN SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
AND CLOUDIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WELL.
WE EXPECT MORE VFR CONDITIONS THAN MVFR BY MID DAY TUESDAY AS
WINDS START TO BACK AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 2 17 6 20 / 30 0 40 20
INL 0 18 7 19 / 40 20 40 40
BRD 0 16 7 18 / 20 0 40 10
HYR 2 16 3 20 / 70 10 60 30
ASX 7 19 7 23 / 80 30 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ002.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
539 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
AT 352 PM...SNOW HAD STARTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE OF IRON COUNTY. OUR SNOWFALL OBSERVER IN GILE
REPORTED 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL TODAY...BUT IT HAD JUST RECENTLY
STARTED TO INTENSIFY. FURTHER WEST...4 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN
IN THE IRON RIVER AREA...FROM PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THAT HAD SET
UP IN THAT AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS
GENERALLY SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH SHORE THERE WAS LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS DEFINITELY THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT A BIT TOO WESTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE WRF INDICATE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BECOME INTENSE DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF UP TO AN AMAZING 5 KM. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
AREA...FOR A TOTAL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. FURTHER WEST...WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY...WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY DROP
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW IN MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS EAST THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ALONG A DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
/AROUND 80 KTS AT H5/ AND WITH AROUND 24 HOURS OF COLD /850MB TEMPS
AS COLD AS -20 C/ NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS THERE MAY BE SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SKIES
WILL BE OVERCAST MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THURSDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE THURS/EARLY FRI RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
MID/LOW LEVELS FRI/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS RISE AS WARM AS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING FRI/SAT AND LIKELY ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH UP
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IF
IT TRENDS WESTWARD AS THE ECMWF IS HINTING THEN SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
AND CLOUDIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WELL.
WE EXPECT MORE VFR CONDITIONS THAN MVFR BY MID DAY TUESDAY AS
WINDS START TO BACK AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 2 17 6 20 / 30 0 40 20
INL 0 18 7 19 / 30 20 40 40
BRD 0 16 7 18 / 10 0 40 10
HYR 2 16 3 20 / 30 10 60 30
ASX 7 19 7 23 / 60 30 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ002.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS ENGULFED SOUTHERN MN IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND SETTING UP ALONG THE IOWA BORDER AS
EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WE`RE EXPECTING MOST
OF THE SNOW IN SOUTHERN MN TO WEAKEN AS FORCING WANES...AND THE
F-GEN MAX SLIDES SOUTH INTO IOWA...AS FRONTOLYSIS TAKES OVER ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. THIS TREND IS QUITE APPARENT ON
RADAR AND HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. SO...EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING.
ANOTHER DECENT SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL CROSS
THE MN/SD BORDER AROUND 6-7 PM AND CONTINUE EASTWARD...PRODUCING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR THE TWIN CITIES...THIS BAND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 0.5"-1" MAINLY FROM 9PM THROUGH 1AM.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BAND TO CROSS THE MN/WI
LINE AT ABOUT 3AM...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING UNTIL 5-6AM NEAR EAU
CLAIRE.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES COLDER
THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOLID SNOW PACK. IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WEST THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE EASTERN CWA WILL RETAIN SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES UNDER CONSISTENT CLOUD COVER /AND LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP OVERNIGHT/. BY TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED
WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG CAA APPARENT AT
925H ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY. 925H
TEMPS AROUND -12C ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL ONLY ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
THE WEEK AHEAD REMAINS EXTREMELY COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH THREE
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE FIRST IS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
WITH THE THIRD ON THURSDAY. LOWS/HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TREND
TODAY WAS TO CONTINUE LOWERING TEMPERATURES OVER THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DUE TO A MORE EXPANSIVE SNOW PACK. THE ARCTIC SURGE THAT
OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR. THE OTHER TWO
ARCTIC SURGES HAVE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN LESS CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR US.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CONCERN
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY HAS WANED A BIT TODAY
AS ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE DECREASED THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MN FORECAST AREA FROM 10 MB TO 8 MB IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS HAS LOWERED WIND SPEED FORECASTS A LITTLE
ON MONDAY FROM KRWF TO KFRM. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN HIGHEST IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA (OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA) WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES HAVE BEEN COMMON. SNOWFALL IN OUR AREA OF WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS BEEN MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE.
BUFKIT PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THAT THE BEST LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST TOP OF THE CHANNEL MOMENTUM TRANSFER
DON/T OCCUR UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM WEST
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...THERE
ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH
25 MPH FROM KRWF TO KFRM MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS HITTING 40
MPH. THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS IN THESE AREAS. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAINING IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR MONDAY FROM YELLOW MEDICINE AND RENVILLE COUNTIES ON
SOUTHEAST TO MARTIN AND FARIBAULT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOME AND THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TODAY TO OUR WEST. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME LATER TONIGHT TO ISSUE A WATCH IF WIND
CONDITIONS CHANGE WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
LIGHT SNOW IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AND WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MN/WI TONIGHT AND SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST
T0 EAST BETWEEN 05Z-08Z IN MN...AND 08Z-12Z IN WI. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL THE SNOW
MOVES OUT.
KMSP...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...SLIGHT CHC -SN WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 15-20 G 25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS G 20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Snow is clearing from the west to east this afternoon, and latest
short-range guidance shows that it should continue to push east at a
decent clip through early evening. RAP and HRRR have done a very
good job with this system (as they did with yesterday`s
precipitation) so am following them closely. The surface cold front
which currently looks to be along a line from near Pittsfield to
near the Lake of the Ozarks, will push slowly eastward tonight.
While accumulating snow should end across most of the area by
00-02Z, some flurries could linger along and east of the Mississippi
from St. Louis southward until the cold front finally pushes through
bringing drier low level air to the area. An additional 1-2 inches
of snow with locally higher amounts is still possible until the
snow ends...primarily on elevated surfaces. Based on current obs
and latest radar trends, will be dropping the advisory west and
north of the STL area, while continuing the advisory into the
early evening hours over southeast sections of the CWA.
Guidance appears to have a reasonable handle on overnight lows.
Leading edge of the first round of Arciic air (as defined by
single digits dewpoints) currently entering northwest sections of
the CWA, and this will be followed by a secondary surge of Arctic
air (now working into the mid-Missouri Valley) that will enter the
CWA during the predawn hours. In this situation guidance has a tendency
to be a bit too cool due to mixing and some clouds, but due to the
shear strength of cold air in this situation believe "thinking
cold" is the way to go.
Carney/Truett
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Monday-Wednesday
Deep and unseasonably strong UA trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS will mean more unseasonably cold November temperatures in
our area through midweek. Obviously, temperature specifics are
going to be the main forecast problem in the short term, and going
forecasts appear to have a fairly good handle on the expected
trends.
Secondary surge of Arctic air that enters the FA late tonight
will be a much colder airmass than any we`ve experienced during
this early taste of winter, and there is good agreement in the 12z
synoptic runs that 850mb temps of -18 to -20C will be common over
the mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. Low level RH progs
suggest quite a bit of low level cloudiness overspreading the area
on Monday in the wake of the secondary cold front, and this cloud
cover combined with the very cold airmass will almost certainy
mean highs only in the 20s for most of the CWA. Perhaps the
biggest question is Monday night. While airmass is extremely cold
for this time of year and there may be snow on the ground in some
locations over the southeast half of the CWA, the center of the
Arctic high is forecast to drop from the Plains into the Arklatex
region. The resultant pressure gradient in our area should mean
that westerly winds will persist throughout much of the night,
with this mixing keeping low temps from reaching record levels.
Normally in this situation would be worried about climo bias
causing guidance to be too warm, but due to the aforementioned
winds and mixing believe it may have a good handle on Monday
night temp trends at this point in time. See climate section for
more info on record lows/record low max temps for the next few
days/nights.
AMS moderation will begin on Tuesday as the center of the Arctic
high works its way in the the se U.S., with additional warming on
Wednesday due to warm advection ahead of next shortwave.
Precipitation threat over the next few days should be limited to a
few flurries with the arrival of the cold air and low clouds
tomorrow.
Thursday-Sunday
Another shot of cold air will settle into the region in the wake of
Wednesday`s shortwave. However, this next round of cold air will
not be nearly as strong as the Artic airmass that invades the region
tomorrow and tomorrow night, and as a result it`s impact on late
week temps will not be nearly as dramatic.
Temperatures will moderate heading into next weekend as trof axis
works east and allows a more zonal flow regime to develop over the
nation`s heartland. Resultant low level warm advection/isentropic
ascent, combined with an approach of an upper level trof in the
southern branch of the westerlies, should mean a chance of
precipitation. Last several medium range runs, as well as latest
12z guidance, suggests ams will warm enough that the bulk of this
precip will be in liquid form.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Upper level disturbance moving over the area at this time is
producing light to moderate snow with widespread vsbys between
3-5SM and areas of vsbys at or below 2SM generally along and east
of a line from KCOU to KPPQ. Snowfall intensity and lower end IFR
conditions will increase this afternoon as the disturbance moves
through, and additional lift is provided by and advancing surface
cold front. Snow will end behind the cold front as drier air works
its way into the area. Low end MVFR ceilings will likely trail
the cold front by a few hours before scattering out late this
evening/overnight as the dry air deepens. Expect gusty northwest
flow and VFR conditions on Monday as high pressure builds across
the Great Plains.
Specifics for KSTL:
Generally expect MVFR flight conditions early this afternoon with
increasing snowfall intensity leading to IFR conditions by mid-
afternoon. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is possible for a
brief period ahead of an approaching cold front as it interacts
with an upper level disturbance. Preferred not to include vsbys
below 1SM as there is still some uncertainty this will occur.
Should see conditions improve by 00Z-01Z time frame as the front
passes through. Low end MVFR cigs will likely linger behind the
front until drier air deepens enough to scatter them out late this
evening or overnight. Expect gusty northwest flow and VFR
conditions on Monday as high pressure builds across the Great
Plains.
Carney
&&
.CLIMATE:
The following are record low maximums and record low minimums for
each of the next 4 days, which corresponds to the expected length
of the current cold spell and record snowfall for St. Louis and
Columbia for Saturday and Sunday when the area is expecting the
first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.
Date: 11/16 11/17 11/18
St. Louis
Low High: 29/1997 17/1880 25/1880
Low: 13/1959 6/1959 14/1932
Snowfall: 0.1/1997 1.0/1951
Columbia
Low High: 30/1932 23/1959 27/1903
Low: 8/1959 4/1959 8/1891
Snowfall: 4.8/1932 0.1/1989
Quincy
Low High: 28/1997 19/1959 24/1903
Low: 4/1959 3/1959 7/1903
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
Jefferson MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1216 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
RAP and HRRR models seem to be handling this morning`s snow pretty
well. RAP especially...with a very nice depiction of the moderate
snow band over central/west central Missouri in the omega fields.
The initial band looks to be weakening over our area, but over the
next couple of hours, the 500MB omega ramps back up again late
this morning/early this afternoon over central MO up into east
central. This combined with good low to mid level frontogenesis
should produce another round of moderate and possibly heavy snow
for a couple of hours. Have therefore expanded the advisory
slightly...mainly to keep a consistent message with accumulations
of 1-2 inches through this afternoon.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
The main weather focus through tonight will be yet another quick
hitting minor winter storm system...where is it going...timing...
and how much snow.
The main culprit for today`s weather will be a upper level TROF axis
extending from the upper MS valley to the central High Plains. Add
to the resultant broadscale lift region out ahead of it a
strengthening h300 130kt jet streak and h850-700 frontogenesis and
the ingredients are there for a more organized and broader reaching
accumulating snow event.
Radar shows this already coming together over parts of northwest MO
with snow being reported in the Kansas City area. Models are
anticipating this initial area of snow to weaken as it moves east
into our region, but this will merely be temporary, with the main
brunt...currently over southern KS...to push east-northeastward and
affect our region from late morning thru the afternoon and into
early evening.
The models have done quite a bit of adjusting the past 24-48hrs,
with a decent shift northward with where to track the pcpn, and
based on current obs, this seems well in hand. Frontogenesis will
be the main driver of where the best snow intensities will setup,
and there is excellent consensus on this being over an area along
and south of a line from roughly 30mi north of the I-44 corridor in
MO and 30mi north of the I-70 corridor in IL. Much of the
accumulating snow will fall during the afternoon, but areas in MO
will see the accumulating snow already by late morning while areas
in IL will continue to see some minor additional accums into the
early evening. The forcing will be further enhanced by a
backbuilding h300 jet, especially over southeast MO and southern IL.
With thick clouds in place already, virtually no advection, and
increasing pcpn coverage, temps will struggle to rise much from
where they are now. This fully supports the cooler MAV MOS temps
and have went with for the forecast. This in turn will result in a
snowier pcpn-type forecast than originally anticipated. Have
trimmed the mixed pcpn coverage to just southeast MO and a small
part of southern IL where some sleet and rain will be possible early
in the event...changing to snow during.
Putting it all together, look for a broad area of 1-2" snowfall
amounts along and south of a line from just north of the I-44
corridor in MO and just north of the I-70 corridor in IL. Will
hoist a winter wx advisory for this area. Little to snow accums
expected elsewhere although nearly all locations should see at least
some light snow.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
A longwave upper level TROF will dig and expand into the eastern and
central CONUS on Monday before gradually shifting east and gradually
losing its hold over our region during the week. Look for another
shot of unseasonable cold on Monday and Tuesday with some recovery
towards average for mid to late week, although with the overall
upper pattern the way it is, it will be tough to actually get back
to normal temps.
Have maintained flurries mention for Monday with deep cyclonic flow
and upper level disturbances rotating down.
Another disturbance will move thru Wednesday accompanied by another
cold front, but at this time, it looks to be going thru dry.
Something to watch.
A more significant system for next weekend will affect our area late
Saturday or just beyond into next Sunday. A much warmer atmosphere
by this time should keep the pcpn all liquid.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Upper level disturbance moving over the area at this time is
producing light to moderate snow with widespread vsbys between
3-5SM and areas of vsbys at or below 2SM generally along and east
of a line from KCOU to KPPQ. Snowfall intensity and lower end IFR
conditions will increase this afternoon as the disturbance moves
through, and additional lift is provided by and advancing surface
cold front. Snow will end behind the cold front as drier air works
its way into the area. Low end MVFR ceilings will likely trail
the cold front by a few hours before scattering out late this
evening/overnight as the dry air deepens. Expect gusty northwest
flow and VFR conditions on Monday as high pressure builds across
the Great Plains.
Specifics for KSTL:
Generally expect MVFR flight conditions early this afternoon with
increasing snowfall intensity leading to IFR conditions by mid-
afternoon. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is possible for a
brief period ahead of an approaching cold front as it interacts
with an upper level disturbance. Preferred not to include vsbys
below 1SM as there is still some uncertainty this will occur.
Should see conditions improve by 00Z-01Z time frame as the front
passes through. Low end MVFR cigs will likely linger behind the
front until drier air deepens enough to scatter them out late this
evening or overnight. Expect gusty northwest flow and VFR
conditions on Monday as high pressure builds across the Great
Plains.
Carney
&&
.CLIMATE:
The following are record low maximums and record low minimums for
each of the next 4 days, which corresponds to the expected length
of the current cold spell and record snowfall for St. Louis and
Columbia for Saturday and Sunday when the area is expecting the
first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.
Date: 11/16 11/17 11/18
St. Louis
Low High: 29/1997 17/1880 25/1880
Low: 13/1959 6/1959 14/1932
Snowfall: 0.1/1997 1.0/1951
Columbia
Low High: 30/1932 23/1959 27/1903
Low: 8/1959 4/1959 8/1891
Snowfall: 4.8/1932 0.1/1989
Quincy
Low High: 28/1997 19/1959 24/1903
Low: 4/1959 3/1959 7/1903
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Lincoln MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR
Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Washington MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Record breaking cold likely early this week...
Regional radars showing plenty of light snow across the region this
morning as main upper-level trough and associated cold front
continue to slide through the area. So far snowfall reports through
the overnight have been far and few between....however accumulations
of less than a half inch are likely through the remainder of the
early morning hrs. Fcst becomes a bit more interesting after 12z as
models have trended a tad further north with frontal band QPF axis
that is expected to impact the far southern zones later this morning
into early afternoon. That said...forcing for ascent looks to be
fairly decent as main upper PV lobe slides east through the course of
the day today. Additionally...models show increasing frontogenesis in
the 850-700 hPa layer as the thermal gradient increases thanks to
increasing cold air advection behind aforementioned secondary cold
front. All told...chances look fairly promising for some light
accumulations south of the KC Metro later today.
Initial look earlier this evening suggested we may need another
advisory for far southern zones to account for anticipated snowfall.
After collaboration with both SGF and LSX...have elected to hold off
on issuing any flags as snowfall accumulations will likely barely
eclipse the 1" mark. This decision is also supported by the recently
arriving 6z NAM and latest runs of the HRRR which are now trending a
bit further south than the earlier runs. In any event...can/t rule
out some minor travel problems later today and daytime shift can
issue SPS statements as needed. Further north...except for some
occasional flurries and chilly conditions as highs top out in the
middle to upper 20s.
Beyond this...story quickly turns to bitterly cold temps as the
chilliest airmass of the season descends upon the region following the
passage of another cold front (albeit dry) overnight tonight.
Following its passage...models show the -20C 850 isotherm making its
way south into northern sections of the fcst area during the day on
Monday. This should result in high temps struggling to reach 20
degrees across much of the area which combined with brisk northwest
winds...will result in single digit windchills through the day.
Confidence continues to increase that record cold high temps likely
to be reached on Monday with record lows also likely Tuesday morning
as the mercury easily falls into the single digits (see climate
section below).
Finally by Tuesday...high pressure across the far southern Plains
will begin tracking east which combined with low pressure entering
the northern Plains...should allow low-level winds to change over to
the south. The end result will be daytime highs climbing back into
the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday afternoon with the moderation
trend expected to continue through midweek.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
The extended continues to look cold and dry for the first half of
the extended before precipitation chances increase towards the end
the work week. Models start out in good agreement at the beginning
of the period on Wednesday with the upper level pattern revealing
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley and
upper level ridging over the western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft
will still be in place over the area however, it will relax a bit
from the very cold temperatures that will affect the area on Monday
and Tuesday. Expect highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. The model
solutions begin to diverge during this time period with the GFS
keeping the area under northwest flow again Thursday before the
pattern becomes more zonal Thursday through Saturday. The EC depicts
a reinforcing upper trough digging through the Midwest Thursday into
Friday which would reinforce the cold pattern in place. The Canadian
is a middle of the road solution. Have maintain a blended solution
to account for models differences.
The models do come into some agreement with the main feature of
interest in the extended in the form of an upper level trough. This
trough will move from the southwestern Conus into the western High
Plains on Saturday. Warm air advection showers will be underway on
Saturday ahead of the system. The main question is how this system
will evolve. The GFS is progressive with this system in moving a
open wave through the area Saturday night into Sunday. The EC digs
and slows the trough as it moves into the Plains Saturday and Sunday
and closes a low in the base of the trough across Oklahoma on
Sunday. this would provide for a colder and prolonged wet solution.
As such, have chance POPs with rain or snow wording in the forecast
for Saturday night and Sunday to account for difference in
solutions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
The northern end of a band of snow with IFR cigs will clear west
central MO by mid afternoon. Otherwise, VFR cigs for all four
terminals with a gradual west to east clearing of higher based
clouds. A windshift line over central NE will press southeast
overnight with westerly winds veering to the northwest and increasing
with its passage.
Expect strong and gusty northwest winds shortly after sunrise Monday
morning with low-end VFR cigs forming by mid-morning. Will likely see
scattered flurries or snow showers form across the entire region by
late morning or early afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Updated at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Monday
November 17th Current Record Low Forecast High Monday
Record Low Highs High Afternoon
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 24 in 1891 21
St. Joseph 26 in 1951 21
Tuesday
November 18th Current Record Low Forecast Low Tuesday
Record Lows Morning
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 14 in 1903 7
St. Joseph 16 in 1989 5
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ060.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ053-
054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...MJ
CLIMATE...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
942 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
RAP and HRRR models seem to be handling this morning`s snow pretty
well. RAP especially...with a very nice depiction of the moderate
snow band over central/west central Missouri in the omega fields.
The initial band looks to be weakening over our area, but over the
next couple of hours, the 500MB omega ramps back up again late
this morning/early this afternoon over central MO up into east
central. This combined with good low to mid level frontogenesis
should produce another round of moderate and possibly heavy snow
for a couple of hours. Have therefore expanded the advisory
slightly...mainly to keep a consistent message with accumulations
of 1-2 inches through this afternoon.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
The main weather focus through tonight will be yet another quick
hitting minor winter storm system...where is it going...timing...
and how much snow.
The main culprit for today`s weather will be a upper level TROF axis
extending from the upper MS valley to the central High Plains. Add
to the resultant broadscale lift region out ahead of it a
strengthening h300 130kt jet streak and h850-700 frontogenesis and
the ingredients are there for a more organized and broader reaching
accumulating snow event.
Radar shows this already coming together over parts of northwest MO
with snow being reported in the Kansas City area. Models are
anticipating this initial area of snow to weaken as it moves east
into our region, but this will merely be temporary, with the main
brunt...currently over southern KS...to push east-northeastward and
affect our region from late morning thru the afternoon and into
early evening.
The models have done quite a bit of adjusting the past 24-48hrs,
with a decent shift northward with where to track the pcpn, and
based on current obs, this seems well in hand. Frontogenesis will
be the main driver of where the best snow intensities will setup,
and there is excellent consensus on this being over an area along
and south of a line from roughly 30mi north of the I-44 corridor in
MO and 30mi north of the I-70 corridor in IL. Much of the
accumulating snow will fall during the afternoon, but areas in MO
will see the accumulating snow already by late morning while areas
in IL will continue to see some minor additional accums into the
early evening. The forcing will be further enhanced by a
backbuilding h300 jet, especially over southeast MO and southern IL.
With thick clouds in place already, virtually no advection, and
increasing pcpn coverage, temps will struggle to rise much from
where they are now. This fully supports the cooler MAV MOS temps
and have went with for the forecast. This in turn will result in a
snowier pcpn-type forecast than originally anticipated. Have
trimmed the mixed pcpn coverage to just southeast MO and a small
part of southern IL where some sleet and rain will be possible early
in the event...changing to snow during.
Putting it all together, look for a broad area of 1-2" snowfall
amounts along and south of a line from just north of the I-44
corridor in MO and just north of the I-70 corridor in IL. Will
hoist a winter wx advisory for this area. Little to snow accums
expected elsewhere although nearly all locations should see at least
some light snow.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
A longwave upper level TROF will dig and expand into the eastern and
central CONUS on Monday before gradually shifting east and gradually
losing its hold over our region during the week. Look for another
shot of unseasonable cold on Monday and Tuesday with some recovery
towards average for mid to late week, although with the overall
upper pattern the way it is, it will be tough to actually get back
to normal temps.
Have maintained flurries mention for Monday with deep cyclonic flow
and upper level disturbances rotating down.
Another disturbance will move thru Wednesday accompanied by another
cold front, but at this time, it looks to be going thru dry.
Something to watch.
A more significant system for next weekend will affect our area late
Saturday or just beyond into next Sunday. A much warmer atmosphere
by this time should keep the pcpn all liquid.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
Area of SN over ern KS will continue to move ewd this morning
impacting COU around mid morning and SUS/CPS around mid day. As
the SN ends, MVFR cigs are expected to remain for a few hours
before becoming VFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect SN to arrive around mid day. Future
updates may need to lower visbys depending on where the heavier
band of SN sets up. Otherwise, SN will come to an end late this
afternoon leaving VFR cigs as the system pulls out of the region.
Tilly
&&
.CLIMATE:
The following are record low maximums and record low minimums for
each of the next 4 days, which corresponds to the expected length
of the current cold spell and record snowfall for St. Louis and
Columbia for Saturday and Sunday when the area is expecting the
first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.
Date: 11/16 11/17 11/18
St. Louis
Low High: 29/1997 17/1880 25/1880
Low: 13/1959 6/1959 14/1932
Snowfall: 0.1/1997 1.0/1951
Columbia
Low High: 30/1932 23/1959 27/1903
Low: 8/1959 4/1959 8/1891
Snowfall: 4.8/1932 0.1/1989
Quincy
Low High: 28/1997 19/1959 24/1903
Low: 4/1959 3/1959 7/1903
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Lincoln MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR
Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Washington MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
553 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Record breaking cold likely early this week...
Regional radars showing plenty of lgt snow across the region this
morning as main upper-level trough and associated cold front
continue to slide through the area. So far snowfall reports through
the overnight have been far and few between....however accumulations
of less than a half inch are likely through the remainder of the
early morning hrs. Fcst becomes a bit more interesting after 12z as
models have trended a tad further north with frontal band QPF axis
that is expected to impact the far southern zones later this morning
into early afternoon. That said...forcing for ascent looks to be
fairly decent as main upper PV lobe slides east through the course of
the day today. Additionally...models show increasing frontogenesis in
the 850-700 hPa layer as the thermal gradient increases thanks to
increasing cold air advection behind aforementioned secondary cold
front. All told...chances look fairly promising for some light
accumulations south of the KC Metro later today.
Initial look earlier this evening suggested we may need another
advisory for far southern zones to account for anticipated snowfall.
After collaboration with both SGF and LSX...have elected to hold off
on issuing any flags as snowfall accumulations will likely barely
eclipse the 1" mark. This decision is also supported by the recently
arriving 6z NAM and latest runs of the HRRR which are now trending a
bit further south than the earlier runs. In any event...can/t rule
out some minor travel problems later today and daytime shift can
issue SPS statements as needed. Further north...except for some
occasional flurries and chilly conditions as highs top out in the
middle to upper 20s.
Beyond this...story quickly turns to bitterly cold temps as the
chilliest airmass of the season descends upon the region following the
passage of another cold front (albeit dry) overnight tonight.
Following its passage...models show the -20C 850 isotherm making its
way south into northern sections of the fcst area during the day on
Monday. This should result in high temps struggling to reach 20
degrees across much of the area which combined with brisk northwest
winds...will result in single digit windchills through the day.
Confidence continues to increase that record cold high temps likely
to be reached on Monday with record lows also likely Tuesday morning
as the mercury easily falls into the single digits (see climate
section below).
Finally by Tuesday...high pressure across the far southern Plains
will begin tracking east which combined with low pressure entering
the northern Plains...should allow low-level winds to change over to
the south. The end result will be daytime highs climbing back into
the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday afternoon with the moderation
trend expected to continue through midweek.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
The extended continues to look cold and dry for the first half of
the extended before precipitation chances increase towards the end
the work week. Models start out in good agreement at the beginning
of the period on Wednesday with the upper level pattern revealing
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley and
upper level ridging over the western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft
will still be in place over the area however, it will relax a bit
from the very cold temperatures that will affect the area on Monday
and Tuesday. Expect highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. The model
solutions begin to diverge during this time period with the GFS
keeping the area under northwest flow again Thursday before the
pattern becomes more zonal Thursday through Saturday. The EC depicts
a reinforcing upper trough digging through the Midwest Thursday into
Friday which would reinforce the cold pattern in place. The Canadian
is a middle of the road solution. Have maintain a blended solution
to account for models differences.
The models do come into some agreement with the main feature of
interest in the extended in the form of an upper level trough. This
trough will move from the southwestern Conus into the western High
Plains on Saturday. Warm air advection showers will be underway on
Saturday ahead of the system. The main question is how this system
will evolve. The GFS is progressive with this system in moving a
open wave through the area Saturday night into Sunday. The EC digs
and slows the trough as it moves into the Plains Saturday and Sunday
and closes a low in the base of the trough across Oklahoma on
Sunday. this would provide for a colder and prolonged wet solution.
As such, have chance POPs with rain or snow wording in the forecast
for Saturday night and Sunday to account for difference in
solutions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
IFR conditions showing signs on improvement this morning with all 4
sites reporting low-end MVFR cigs. Snow for the most part has ended
with the arrival of drier air that continues to filter into the
region. Expect lingering MVFR cigs through around 15z before clouds
begin to dissipate. Winds through the day will remain from the
northwest between 10-15 kts...before backing to the west by late
afternoon in advance of a secondary cold front that will pass
overnight. Boundary to make its way through the area between 4 and
7z with MVFR clouds returning late as cold air arrives following
frontal passage.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Updated at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Monday
November 17th Current Record Low Forecast High Monday
Record Low Highs High Afternoon
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 24 in 1891 21
St. Joseph 26 in 1951 21
Tuesday
November 18th Current Record Low Forecast Low Tuesday
Record Lows Morning
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 14 in 1903 7
St. Joseph 16 in 1989 5
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32
CLIMATE...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Record breaking cold likely early this week...
Regional radars showing plenty of lgt snow across the region this
morning as main upper-level trough and associated cold front
continue to slide through the area. So far snowfall reports through
the overnight have been far and few between....however accumulations
of less than a half inch are likely through the remainder of the
early morning hrs. Fcst becomes a bit more interesting after 12z as
models have trended a tad further north with frontal band QPF axis
that is expected to impact the far southern zones later this morning
into early afternoon. That said...forcing for ascent looks to be
fairly decent as main upper PV lobe slides east through the course of
the day today. Additionally...models show increasing frontogenesis in
the 850-700 hPa layer as the thermal gradient increases thanks to
increasing cold air advection behind aforementioned secondary cold
front. All told...chances look fairly promising for some light
accumulations south of the KC Metro later today.
Initial look earlier this evening suggested we may need another
advisory for far southern zones to account for anticipated snowfall.
After collaboration with both SGF and LSX...have elected to hold off
on issuing any flags as snowfall accumulations will likely barely
eclipse the 1" mark. This decision is also supported by the recently
arriving 6z NAM and latest runs of the HRRR which are now trending a
bit further south than the earlier runs. In any event...can/t rule
out some minor travel problems later today and daytime shift can
issue SPS statements as needed. Further north...except for some
occasional flurries and chilly conditions as highs top out in the
middle to upper 20s.
Beyond this...story quickly turns to bitterly cold temps as the
chilliest airmass of the season descends upon the region following the
passage of another cold front (albeit dry) overnight tonight.
Following its passage...models show the -20C 850 isotherm making its
way south into northern sections of the fcst area during the day on
Monday. This should result in high temps struggling to reach 20
degrees across much of the area which combined with brisk northwest
winds...will result in single digit windchills through the day.
Confidence continues to increase that record cold high temps likely
to be reached on Monday with record lows also likely Tuesday morning
as the mercury easily falls into the single digits (see climate
section below).
Finally by Tuesday...high pressure across the far southern Plains
will begin tracking east which combined with low pressure entering
the northern Plains...should allow low-level winds to change over to
the south. The end result will be daytime highs climbing back into
the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday afternoon with the moderation
trend expected to continue through midweek.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
The extended continues to look cold and dry for the first half of
the extended before precipitation chances increase towards the end
the work week. Models start out in good agreement at the beginning
of the period on Wednesday with the upper level pattern revealing
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley and
upper level ridging over the western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft
will still be in place over the area however, it will relax a bit
from the very cold temperatures that will affect the area on Monday
and Tuesday. Expect highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. The model
solutions begin to diverge during this time period with the GFS
keeping the area under northwest flow again Thursday before the
pattern becomes more zonal Thursday through Saturday. The EC depicts
a reinforcing upper trough digging through the Midwest Thursday into
Friday which would reinforce the cold pattern in place. The Canadian
is a middle of the road solution. Have maintain a blended solution
to account for models differences.
The models do come into some agreement with the main feature of
interest in the extended in the form of an upper level trough. This
trough will move from the southwestern Conus into the western High
Plains on Saturday. Warm air advection showers will be underway on
Saturday ahead of the system. The main question is how this system
will evolve. The GFS is progressive with this system in moving a
open wave through the area Saturday night into Sunday. The EC digs
and slows the trough as it moves into the Plains Saturday and Sunday
and closes a low in the base of the trough across Oklahoma on
Sunday. this would provide for a colder and prolonged wet solution.
As such, have chance POPs with rain or snow wording in the forecast
for Saturday night and Sunday to account for difference in
solutions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
MVFR cigs and very light snow over the terminals will prevail through
most of the night. Latest obs upstream show surface winds to shift
from light south to northwest and pick up behind a surface front. Now
seeing gusts in southeast Nebraska but the gradient will be weaker
over the terminals here...but will have to watch for a few gusts late
morning. Some VFR OVC050 clouds will help keep the stronger winds
from mixing down as well. The cigs should clear by around mid day or
so and winds will diminish late in the period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Updated at 345 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
Monday
November 17th Current Record Low Forecast High Monday
Record Low Highs High Afternoon
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 24 in 1891 21
St. Joseph 26 in 1951 21
Tuesday
November 18th Current Record Low Forecast Low Tuesday
Record Lows Morning
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 14 in 1903 7
St. Joseph 16 in 1989 5
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Adolphson
CLIMATE...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1028 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
Small bands of snow are finally moving out of the area after producing
generally 1/2 inch or less of snowfall over the area. Weak
shortwave trough is now moving east of the Mississippi river which
will allow weak subsidence to move in for the rest of the night.
Still expect mainly cloudy skies with temperatures falling close
to predicted lows.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
Shortwave exiting the eastern Plains into the Mississippi Valley is
producing a little bit of light snow and flurry activity across the
CWFA today. Looks like the best snowfall has moved north of our
CWFA across extreme northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa into west
central Illinois. The broad scale mid level lift associated with
the shortwave is lifting quickly northeast according to the RAP and
NAM. Will likely see a little bit of lingering snowfall up there
this evening, but any accumulations this evening should be well
under an inch.
Further south, HRRR and RAP have been very insistent that there will
be a frontogenetical band of snow this evening somewhere between
I-44 and I-70. The band will move northeast affecting parts of the
STL metro area with some light snow. Simulated reflectivity off the
4km NCEP and NSSL WRF models also show this, and the operational NAM
and GFS bear this out with a few hundredths of QPF. Latest radar
mosaic shows a band of snow developing west central Missouri
now...so this looks likely to happen. Have a band of likely PoPs
this evening in to account for this snow, stretching across central
Missouri into southwest Illinois to account for this.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
(Sunday thru Tuesday)
This period will continue to feature much below normal temps and
another shot at accumulating snow. Models have come into better
agreement with the system for Sunday/Sunday night. All guidance has
shifted the forcing and subsequently the precip shield further
north. Timing should be similar to today`s event. Precip is
expected to begin across cntrl and SE MO around noon and then spread
east thru the rest of the CWA during the aftn and then clear from W
to E during the evng and be but a memory by midnight. The main
p-type should be snow with temps aloft plenty cold enough to support
ice crystal formation but...air temps above freezing at the
beginning of the event may cause a rain/snow mix at the onset of the
precip. I think the mix won`t last long as temps should wet bulb
shortly after the precip begins. This will likely lead to a
non-diurnal temp trend as temps fall across the sthrn CWA as the
precip progresses east. Accum rates may be limited early on in the
event for a variety of reasons beyond the warm air temps
including...ground temps will likely be above freezing, snowfall
rates may not be high enough and the aftn sun...even with the
diminished angle...will have an effect. Event total snowfall amounts
should be 1-2 inches along and south of I70. There may be a band of
slightly enhanced snowfall along the I44 corridor that may reach
upwards of 3 inches but not confident on band placement to include
in the fcst attm. The system quickly lifts east after midnight.
Monday looks like a raw day with potentially steady or slowly
falling temps and a stiff NW wind as a 1030mb sfc high builds in.
850 temps fall from the negative single digits at 6Z Monday to the
negative mid teens to near -20 by Monday evening. There is also an
impressive short wave dropping down in the NW flow on Monday that
should instigate at least occnl flurries with the possibility of
actual snow showers...as was the case this past Thursday. Models
hint at patchy QPF which would equate to a few tenths of an inch of
snow...but will let later shifts asses that threat as it is still 2
days away. Tuesday should be the last truly cold day as the sfc
ridge passes to the south.
(Tuesday night thru Friday)
The upper flow flattens thru the end of the week which will allow
for a moderating trend. Winds will swing around to the south on the
backside of the high Tuesday night. 850 temps near 0 and a Srly wind
will boost temps to the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south
on Wednesday. The next short waves pushes a cold front thru late in
the day on Wednesday causing temps on Thursday and Friday to be a
touch cooler. This front appears to be dry at this time. Models
guidance diverges after this feature with the GFS building a strong
sfc ridge into the Midwest for the end of the week while the ECMWF
has another short wave and an attendant weak sfc low that tracks
across sthrn MO/IL Thursday/Thursday night.
Both models suggest another storm system for either the wknd and/or
early next week as the next main short wave approaches in the mean
flow.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
The shortwave has moved east of the taf sites with the light
snow/flurries coming to an end. Vfr conditions to persist until
next weather system moves in by mid morning. Light and variable
winds to pickup from the west with cigs/vsbys lowering to mvfr as
next chance for snow moves in. Will see just flurries at KUIN by
14z, while rest of taf sites to see light to moderate snow between
15z and 22z. Activity to exit by 00z-01z Monday timeframe with
cigs/vsbys lifting back to vfr.
Specifics for KSTL:
The shortwave has moved east of the metro area with the light
snow/flurries coming to an end. Vfr conditions to persist until
next weather system moves in by 17z Sunday. Light and variable
winds to pickup from the west with cigs/vsbys lowering to mvfr as
next chance for snow moves in. Light to moderate snow will move
in by 17z Sunday and persist til around 22z Sunday. Activity to exit
by 01z Monday timeframe with cigs/vsbys lifting back to vfr.
Byrd
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 748 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2014
The following are record low maximums and record low minimums for
each of the next 4 days, which corresponds to the expected length
of the current cold spell and record snowfall for St. Louis and
Columbia for Saturday and Sunday when the area is expecting the
first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.
Date: 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
St. Louis
Low High: 29/1940 29/1997 17/1880 25/1880
Low: 11/1940 13/1959 6/1959 14/1932
Snowfall: 0.1/1997 1.0/1951
Columbia
Low High: 28/1940 30/1932 23/1959 27/1903
Low: 6/1940 8/1959 4/1959 8/1891
Snowfall: 4.8/1932 0.1/1989
Quincy
Low High: 29/1940 28/1997 19/1959 24/1903
Low: 7/1940 4/1959 3/1959 7/1903
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1055 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Tonight - Sunday:
As today`s system which generated 2-4 inches of snow over the far
northern counties exits the region our attention turns to three
secondary areas of snow. An area of snow over Nebraska is tied to a
shortwave trough moving east through western SD/NE. The trailing
band of enhanced clouds/snow is expected to drag through the CWA
overnight but only the far northwestern counties have a chance of
more than a dusting...maybe 1/2" to and inch. The expected band of
snow should diminish in intensity overnight but most areas will see
at least intermittent flurries.
The second region of snow is a result of the seeder-feeder mechanism
as noted by the broken area of enhanced mid clouds which have formed
from east central KS into west central MO. There likely is a weak
mid-level vorticity max tied to this region of cloud and the NAM h7
prog seems to hint on this. Only the short-range HRRR has picked up
on this. Could get a quick half inch of snow across the far southern
CWA during the late afternoon/early evening hours before the feature
weakens as it quickly heads east.
The third area of snow is expected to form over the CO Rockies
tonight and rapidly expand as a narrow band in response to the left
front quad of an upper level jet streak races through the Central
Rockies and into KS/OK Sunday morning. Operational models do depict
one or two vorticity lobes tracking into the region within an
overall area of ascent. At this time the northern edge of the
expected snow band could skirt across our far southern counties so
have added chance PoPs to this area.
Otherwise, until the primary upper trough passes through late on
Sunday am expecting mostly cloudy skies for most of the CWA. This
will mute the diurnal temperature range.
Monday - Tuesday:
Much below average temperatures will continue during this period
with the potential for a record low max temperature on Monday and
record setting lows Tuesday morning. Another upper trough will dig
southward Sunday night and Monday and result in falling mid/upper
level heights and enhance the flow of Arctic air southward from the
Canadian Plains to central U.S. Another surge of this air will move
in during this period. Steep lapse rates below 750mb and a moist
layer residing within the boundary layer suggests a good chance for
instability snow showers or flurries Monday afternoon.
Wednesday - Saturday:
This should be a dry period with a continuation of the unseasonably
cold regime. Cyclonic/northwest flow aloft will continue featuring
the potential for weak embedded shortwaves to pass through. However,
the airmass will be quite dry so it should remain dry. A slight
moderation in temperatures are expected but they will remain about
15 degrees below average.
A particularly cold air mass will swing into the Central Plains
Monday into Tuesday. This will result in the coldest temperatures we
have seen this fall with both Monday`s high temperatures and Tuesday
morning`s low temperatures possibly setting new records. Here is a
quick look at just some of those threatened temperature records.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 418 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
Monday
November 17th Current Record Low Forecast High Monday
Record Low Highs High Afternoon
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 24 in 1891 22
St. Joseph 26 in 1951 22
Tuesday
November 18th Current Record Low Forecast Low Tuesday
Record Lows Morning
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City 14 in 1903 7
St. Joseph 16 in 1989 5
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR
MOZ001>003-011.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
MVFR cigs and very light snow over the terminals will prevail through
most of the night. Latest obs upstream show surface winds to shift
from light south to northwest and pick up behind a surface front. Now
seeing gusts in southeast Nebraska but the gradient will be weaker
over the terminals here...but will have to watch for a few gusts late
morning. Some VFR OVC050 clouds will help keep the stronger winds
from mixing down as well. The cigs should clear by around mid day or
so and winds will diminish late in the period.
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Adolphson
CLIMATE...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1030 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1028 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
Small bands of snow are finally moving out of the area after producing
generally 1/2 inch or less of snowfall over the area. Weak
shortwave trough is now moving east of the Mississippi river which
will allow weak subsidence to move in for the rest of the night.
Still expect mainly cloudy skies with temperatures falling close
to predicted lows.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
Shortwave exiting the eastern Plains into the Mississippi Valley is
producing a little bit of light snow and flurry activity across the
CWFA today. Looks like the best snowfall has moved north of our
CWFA across extreme northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa into west
central Illinois. The broad scale mid level lift associated with
the shortwave is lifting quickly northeast according to the RAP and
NAM. Will likely see a little bit of lingering snowfall up there
this evening, but any accumulations this evening should be well
under an inch.
Further south, HRRR and RAP have been very insistent that there will
be a frontogenetical band of snow this evening somewhere between
I-44 and I-70. The band will move northeast affecting parts of the
STL metro area with some light snow. Simulated reflectivity off the
4km NCEP and NSSL WRF models also show this, and the operational NAM
and GFS bear this out with a few hundredths of QPF. Latest radar
mosaic shows a band of snow developing west central Missouri
now...so this looks likely to happen. Have a band of likely PoPs
this evening in to account for this snow, stretching across central
Missouri into southwest Illinois to account for this.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
(Sunday thru Tuesday)
This period will continue to feature much below normal temps and
another shot at accumulating snow. Models have come into better
agreement with the system for Sunday/Sunday night. All guidance has
shifted the forcing and subsequently the precip shield further
north. Timing should be similar to today`s event. Precip is
expected to begin across cntrl and SE MO around noon and then spread
east thru the rest of the CWA during the aftn and then clear from W
to E during the evng and be but a memory by midnight. The main
p-type should be snow with temps aloft plenty cold enough to support
ice crystal formation but...air temps above freezing at the
beginning of the event may cause a rain/snow mix at the onset of the
precip. I think the mix won`t last long as temps should wet bulb
shortly after the precip begins. This will likely lead to a
non-diurnal temp trend as temps fall across the sthrn CWA as the
precip progresses east. Accum rates may be limited early on in the
event for a variety of reasons beyond the warm air temps
including...ground temps will likely be above freezing, snowfall
rates may not be high enough and the aftn sun...even with the
diminished angle...will have an effect. Event total snowfall amounts
should be 1-2 inches along and south of I70. There may be a band of
slightly enhanced snowfall along the I44 corridor that may reach
upwards of 3 inches but not confident on band placement to include
in the fcst attm. The system quickly lifts east after midnight.
Monday looks like a raw day with potentially steady or slowly
falling temps and a stiff NW wind as a 1030mb sfc high builds in.
850 temps fall from the negative single digits at 6Z Monday to the
negative mid teens to near -20 by Monday evening. There is also an
impressive short wave dropping down in the NW flow on Monday that
should instigate at least occnl flurries with the possibility of
actual snow showers...as was the case this past Thursday. Models
hint at patchy QPF which would equate to a few tenths of an inch of
snow...but will let later shifts asses that threat as it is still 2
days away. Tuesday should be the last truly cold day as the sfc
ridge passes to the south.
(Tuesday night thru Friday)
The upper flow flattens thru the end of the week which will allow
for a moderating trend. Winds will swing around to the south on the
backside of the high Tuesday night. 850 temps near 0 and a Srly wind
will boost temps to the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south
on Wednesday. The next short waves pushes a cold front thru late in
the day on Wednesday causing temps on Thursday and Friday to be a
touch cooler. This front appears to be dry at this time. Models
guidance diverges after this feature with the GFS building a strong
sfc ridge into the Midwest for the end of the week while the ECMWF
has another short wave and an attendant weak sfc low that tracks
across sthrn MO/IL Thursday/Thursday night.
Both models suggest another storm system for either the wknd and/or
early next week as the next main short wave approaches in the mean
flow.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014
Initial shortwave exiting region, however secondary shortwave over
west central MO tracking to the east northeast, so will continue
to see light snow/flurries for taf sites along I-70 corridor this
evening. So have mvfr cigs through 02z Sunday for KCOU and through
03z Sunday for metro area tafs. Another stronger shortwave to
slide through region late Sunday morning through early Sunday
evening with mvfr conditions once again for taf sites along I-70
corridor with heaviest snow just south of these sites. Southeast
to south winds to become light and variable overnight, then veer
to the west as stronger shortwave moves through on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Initial shortwave exiting region, however secondary shortwave over
west central MO tracking to the east northeast, so will continue
to see light snow/flurries for metro area this evening. So have mvfr
cigs through 03z Sunday KSTL. Another stronger shortwave to slide
through region late Sunday morning through early Sunday evening
with mvfr conditions once again for metro area with heaviest snow
just south of metro area. Southeast to south winds to become
light and variable by 03z Sunday, then veer to the west as stronger
shortwave moves through around 17z Sunday. Snow to taper off after
00z Monday with cigs lifting to vfr.
Byrd
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 748 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2014
The following are record low maximums and record low minimums for
each of the next 5 days, which corresponds to the expected length
of the current cold spell and record snowfall for St. Louis and
Columbia for Saturday and Sunday when the area is expecting the
first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.
Date: 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
St. Louis
Low High: 29/1940 29/1997 17/1880 25/1880
Low: 11/1940 13/1959 6/1959 14/1932
Snowfall: 0.1/1997 1.0/1951
Columbia
Low High: 28/1940 30/1932 23/1959 27/1903
Low: 6/1940 8/1959 4/1959 8/1891
Snowfall: 4.8/1932 0.1/1989
Quincy
Low High: 29/1940 28/1997 19/1959 24/1903
Low: 7/1940 4/1959 3/1959 7/1903
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
THE FRONT CONTS TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWA THIS EVNG. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW HAVE CONTD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO TRACK
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVNG AS THE COLD FRONT MOVS E
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXITS. SFC 3-HR PRES RISES OF 2-3 MB
ARE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN
AREAS...BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE WNTR WX ADVRY FOR
THE NW CWA AND AS THE LAST OF THE SN EXITS THE CNTRL/ERN CWA WE
WILL DO THE SAME THERE BUT KEEP SOME MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW GOING. OTHERWISE OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES
ONGOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
ENDING SNOW TONIGHT...THEN COLD TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
FIRST ROUND OF SNOW TIED TO SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE/WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA DROPPED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WAS ENTERED THE WESTERN PART OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAS TIED TO
STRONGER UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
75KT MID LEVEL JET WAS ROUNDING BASE OF THIS FEATURE...INCREASING
LIFT IN NORTHEAST WHERE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW WAS FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. CHARACTER OF RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF
MODERATE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. PROGRESSIVE NATURE ALSO SUGGESTS
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FROM HRRR AND RAP IN SHOWING SNOW
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA TAPERING TO LESS
THAN AN INCH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. FRONT WILL PASS NORFOLK BY 9 PM AND BE APPROACHING OMAHA
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SHOULD
FOLLOW...CAUSING A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME ON SUNDAY. CLEARING SKIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...COLD AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO COLD
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING...WITH WINDS ONLY THING KEEPING LOWS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST MOST EVERYWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 20S EXPECTED MOST AREAS. MORE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH MODELS SHOWING -20
850 TEMPERATURES INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
ONLY BACK INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS MONDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL TO 15 BELOW OR COLDER FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SUGGEST TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE
THE COLDEST OF THIS RECENT COLD SPELL. LOWS NEAR ZERO ARE LIKELY
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH SUB-ZERO
TEMPS NEARLY A CERTAINTY IN OUR NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY...HELPING TO WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF SLAMMING THROUGH MINNESOTA
AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COLD AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT THAT
LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. HAVE HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 30S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
SNOW HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED OUT OF THE ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KOMA FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL VISBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED
KOFK/KLNK AND WILL CLEAR KOMA BY 08Z. SFC CDFNT IS THROUGH ALL 3
TAF SITES WITH NW WINDS AOA 12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TAF SITES LATE SUN
AFTN/EARLY EVNG ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE NW
AND A VFR SC DECK TO MV INTO ALL 3 SITES TO END THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1231 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED SOME OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. EXTENDED SOME EAST CENTRAL ADVYS AND
WARNINGS TO 4 PM WITH HRRR SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW THERE.
LOWERED SOME MAX TEMPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1057 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MIX OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO AREAS OF SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAO TO SAF LINE WILL STEADILY SINK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
BY ROUGHLY 21Z OR 22Z THE NORTH END OF THESE LOWER CIGS AND
PATCHY SN SHOULD BE IN VCNTY OF CVN TO CORONA LINE. ELSEWHERE
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS.
GREATEST TAF SITE IMPACTS SHOULD BE LVS...TCC AND ROW WITH ROW
IMPACTS LASTING THE LONGEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
MON...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS AND FOG IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER MT BASINS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 07Z AND 15Z MON AS THE LOW
LVL INVERSION FORMS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE GETTING MORE STRONGLY
IN PLACE...LIKELY NEGATING WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...317 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS IS UNDERWAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DROP THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK-HITTER...WITH SNOW
ENDING LATER TODAY. A BITTER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP...WITH MONDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD VALUES AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PRIOR TO ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY THIS
MORNING FOR WHAT WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER EVENT OF THE
SEASON FOR A NUMBER OF LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NEW MEXICO. 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEALED VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS TROUGH...-31C AT 500MB AND -15C AT
700MB. THE PRECEDING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PLENTY COLD...THOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FROM THIS PAST WEEK. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS JUST NOW SHOWING UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ACROSS
FAR NE NM. THE FRONT-DOOR PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
BEHIND IT. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIPITATION IS BREAKING-OUT ACROSS
EASTERN AZ AND MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. OUR POPS HAVE TRENDED UP FURTHER WITH OUR FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
ZONES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE
TEXAS BORDER. OF THOSE ZONES...THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PILE UP SOME SNOW TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 3-5 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER ABOVE 9000 FEET). THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS EVENT IS DURATION...AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICK-HITTING WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO...MIXED PRECIPITATION INITIALLY AND WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...IS POSSIBLE OUT ON THE WEST MESA AND IN
THE FOOTHILLS.
A FRIGID COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS NEAR
OR BELOW RECORD VALUES AT A NUMBER OF LOCALES. RAPID CLEARING
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS...WITH OUR FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW THE COLDEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS COLD AIRMASS TO HANG-ON
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. BOTH THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE TIMING OF A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER THE NEXT TROUGH
ON SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY LOW BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY WITH VIGOROUS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH REDUCED VENTILATION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL PROVIDE UNUSUALLY LOW RH
READINGS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS BY MID WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY SWEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
HAS ABUTTED UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE MORE TRADITIONAL COLD
FRONT HAS NUDGED INTO NORTHWEST NM AND WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. WETTING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CENTRAL
MTNS. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE DAYTIME PERIOD TODAY.
THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
TWO FOLD...REDUCED VENTILATION WITH LOTS OF POOR RATINGS AND DRY
AIR. DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE COLD AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY/TONIGHT. DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL EXPAND AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DRYING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES/MID SLOPE AREAS.
THIS PARTICULAR DRY INTRUSION OR DRY SLOT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT BASED
ON THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. PEAKING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE UNUSUALLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS...THE STRENGTH
OF THE DRY SLOT WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT SURFACE CONDITIONS SO WENT
LOWER THAN MODEL DEWPOINT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BUT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS TO GET
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME NW BREEZES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM
FARMINGTON TO ALBUQUERQUE TO CLINES CORNERS MONDAY BUT LOWER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT REDUCES.
MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT
OF FANFARE WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE. LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH
THIS WAVE PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. VENTILATION SHOULD
BUMP UP WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE DUE TO IMPROVED MIXING HEIGHTS AND
THIS BEARS OUT IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.
ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER
SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS APPEAR TO INCREASE SO VENTILATION
RATES SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE
SHAKY FOR THE VENTILATION FORECAST ON FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DRAGGING A SECOND AND
PERHAPS MORE POTENT PACIFIC WAVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. PERHAPS
A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO A STRONGER TROUGH
PRESENCE LATE ON THE WEEKEND TO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-526-533>540.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
112 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING IN TONIGHT BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SOME FLURRIES INITIALLY LATE MORNING TAPERING
DOWN. CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/MON AM...EXCEPT THE FINGER LAKES. WAITING
FOR MORE 12Z MORNING GUIDANCE AND WILL MAKE A DECISION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
645 AM UPDATE...
AS ANTICIPATED...VERY LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE MANAGED TO MATERIALIZE
AS ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT IS PASSING THROUGH. VIRGA
REPRESENTS MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS...BUT OLEAN AND WELLSVILLE
MANAGED BRIEF FLURRIES...AND NOW ITHACA AS WELL. HRRR AND RUC
FINALLY CAUGHT UP TO IT...BUT THE FLURRIES ARE STILL ABSENT IN THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MODELS. GRIDS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED TO
MATCH MINOR TEMPERATURE DETAILS AND SUCH...BUT FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET YET COLD CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND TODAY.
THOUGH THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY KITH-KSYR LATER THIS MORNING SHOW SATURATION
IN THE 5 TO 15 KFT AGL LAYER...WEAK LIFT...AND NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES /ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS/. MINOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO OCCURS ON THE 290-295K
SURFACES...A RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. SO DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN OPERATIONAL MODELS...I BELIEVE
ABILITY FOR GENERATING DENDRITE FLURRIES WILL BE THERE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THEY SURVIVE THEIR TRIP THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR. I ADDED CHANCE OF FLURRIES FROM FINGER LAKES THROUGH NY
THRUWAY AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WHATEVER FALLS /IF ANY/
WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE.
HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY UPPER 30S-MID 40S...ROUGHLY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
SATURDAY YET STILL A WAYS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN
REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THAT
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A FASTER CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN MANY AREAS.
PRECIP STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AT THE
ONSET, MOSTLY ALL SNOW FOR EVERYONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW RAIN
AT THE ONSET IN PLACES SUCH AS KAVP. I BELIEVE EVEN HERE HOWEVER
EVAPORATE COOLING SHOULD GIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR EVEN SOME
ICE PELLETS AT THE START. WARMING ALOFT MOVES IN QUICK WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWING THE 850 MB 0C LINE UP TO NEAR KBGM BY 12Z AND
APPROACHING KSYR BY 18Z. AT THE SAME TIME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
THAT ARE MARGINAL AT THE START, WILL WARM ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST, NOT IN A GOOD SPOT FOR LOCKING IN COLD AIR.
WITH THAT IN MIND LOOKING FOR A SNOW TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN FROM
MORNING (SOUTHEAST) TO AFTERNOON (NORTHWEST), WITH SOME SLEET AND LIMITED
ICING POSSIBLE DURING THAT TRANSITION. HIGHEST SNOW POTENTIAL FAR
NORTHWEST (BATH TO AUBURN TO BOONVILLE LINE) WHERE 0C LINE DOES
NOT MAKE IT UNTIL 18Z MONDAY. EVEN HERE HOWEVER MIX POTENTIAL WILL
CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL TOTALS AND STILL THINKING IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AT BEST.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND THAT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY.
NO ICING IS EXPECTED IN WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA BUT LIGHT ICING IS
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ALONG WITH WAYNE COUNTY, PA AND
SULLIVAN, NY. THESE ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND NORMAL LAST HOLD
OUTS FOR COLD AIR. ANY AMOUNT OF ICE JUSTIFIES A WINTER ADVISORY
AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH PHILLY, NYC, AND ALBANY THIS WAS GIVEN
A STRONG CONSIDERATION FOR THESE AREAS ONLY. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST ICING LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT
MEET CRITERIA.
I DECIDED NOT TO DO AN ADVISORY BECAUSE THE WARMING TREND HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT OUR ICING PERIOD MAY BE VERY BRIEF AND
PERHAPS EVEN COVERED BY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER TODAY.
BOTTOM LINE IS THIS FORECAST IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR AND I
FEEL CONFIDENCE WILL BE A BIT BETTER WITH ANOTHER SET OF MODEL
RUNS UNDER OUR BELT. NO MATTER WHAT, ICING AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH AT ALL.
BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT, A DRY SLOT SHOULD END
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE COLDER AIR
ONT HE BACKSIDE SOME A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE DRY SLOT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
IT IS MID NOVEMBER SO SOME COLD AIR IS NOT UNUSUAL. HOWEVER...THE
AIR MASS THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ACTUALLY IS QUITE A
BIT ANOMALOUS...MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER. 500MB HEIGHTS REACH
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DIVES TO ONLY ABOUT 505 DECAMETERS. HIGHS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN 25-32 DEGREE RANGE...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MID
TEENS-LOW 20S. WINDS ALSO FAIRLY STOUT WHICH WILL MAKE SINGLE
DIGIT TO TEENS WIND CHILLS COMMON.
THE NEW SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN VIA WSW FLOW WHICH WILL
DIRECT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA INITIALLY
TUESDAY /EXCEPT FOR SOME OF LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWERS STILL CROSSING
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING/. THAT BEING
SAID...THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
SITUATIONS WHERE JUST ABOUT EVERY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
DENDRITES...AND THE FORECAST AT LEAST INCLUDES MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA.
PROSPECTS FOR A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE TUESDAY...REDIRECTING LAKE
ONTARIO BAND INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY /WITH UPSTREAM LAKE-TO-
LAKE CONNECTIONS/...IS BECOMING APPARENT IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE. IF THIS HOLDS UP...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW WATER
CONTENT FLUFFY SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL MONITOR UPCOMING MODELS AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LAKE ERIE MOISTURE WILL ALSO
MOVE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS STEUBEN/YATES COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER THU SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH THE EURO
TRACKING A SFC LOW DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE GFS
KEEPING A COLD MORE W-NW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION. FOR GRIDS
KEPT IDEA OF LES SNOWS DEVELOPING AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NWRLY THU
NGT-SAT SIMILAR TO GFS. THE 12Z EURO WUD SUGGEST A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT FOR MUCH OF NE PA/C NY FRI WITH MORE LES IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY START AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW... CHANGING TO RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE CHANGE-OVER ESPECIALLY AT BGM
AND RME. IFR VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY MVFR AFTER THE CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN BACK TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE TO WED...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
THUR...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT RME AND SYR OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1028 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING IN TONIGHT BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SOME FLURRIES INITIALLY LATE MORNING TAPERING
DOWN. CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/MON AM...EXCEPT THE FINGER LAKES. WAITING
FOR MORE 12Z MORNING GUIDANCE AND WILL MAKE A DECISION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
645 AM UPDATE...
AS ANTICIPATED...VERY LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE MANAGED TO MATERIALIZE
AS ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT IS PASSING THROUGH. VIRGA
REPRESENTS MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS...BUT OLEAN AND WELLSVILLE
MANAGED BRIEF FLURRIES...AND NOW ITHACA AS WELL. HRRR AND RUC
FINALLY CAUGHT UP TO IT...BUT THE FLURRIES ARE STILL ABSENT IN THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MODELS. GRIDS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED TO
MATCH MINOR TEMPERATURE DETAILS AND SUCH...BUT FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET YET COLD CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND TODAY.
THOUGH THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY KITH-KSYR LATER THIS MORNING SHOW SATURATION
IN THE 5 TO 15 KFT AGL LAYER...WEAK LIFT...AND NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES /ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS/. MINOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO OCCURS ON THE 290-295K
SURFACES...A RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. SO DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN OPERATIONAL MODELS...I BELIEVE
ABILITY FOR GENERATING DENDRITE FLURRIES WILL BE THERE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THEY SURVIVE THEIR TRIP THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR. I ADDED CHANCE OF FLURRIES FROM FINGER LAKES THROUGH NY
THRUWAY AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WHATEVER FALLS /IF ANY/
WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE.
HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY UPPER 30S-MID 40S...ROUGHLY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
SATURDAY YET STILL A WAYS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN
REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THAT
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A FASTER CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN MANY AREAS.
PRECIP STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AT THE
ONSET, MOSTLY ALL SNOW FOR EVERYONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW RAIN
AT THE ONSET IN PLACES SUCH AS KAVP. I BELIEVE EVEN HERE HOWEVER
EVAPORATE COOLING SHOULD GIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR EVEN SOME
ICE PELLETS AT THE START. WARMING ALOFT MOVES IN QUICK WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWING THE 850 MB 0C LINE UP TO NEAR KBGM BY 12Z AND
APPROACHING KSYR BY 18Z. AT THE SAME TIME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
THAT ARE MARGINAL AT THE START, WILL WARM ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST, NOT IN A GOOD SPOT FOR LOCKING IN COLD AIR.
WITH THAT IN MIND LOOKING FOR A SNOW TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN FROM
MORNING (SOUTHEAST) TO AFTERNOON (NORTHWEST), WITH SOME SLEET AND LIMITED
ICING POSSIBLE DURING THAT TRANSITION. HIGHEST SNOW POTENTIAL FAR
NORTHWEST (BATH TO AUBURN TO BOONVILLE LINE) WHERE 0C LINE DOES
NOT MAKE IT UNTIL 18Z MONDAY. EVEN HERE HOWEVER MIX POTENTIAL WILL
CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL TOTALS AND STILL THINKING IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AT BEST.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND THAT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY.
NO ICING IS EXPECTED IN WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA BUT LIGHT ICING IS
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ALONG WITH WAYNE COUNTY, PA AND
SULLIVAN, NY. THESE ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND NORMAL LAST HOLD
OUTS FOR COLD AIR. ANY AMOUNT OF ICE JUSTIFIES A WINTER ADVISORY
AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH PHILLY, NYC, AND ALBANY THIS WAS GIVEN
A STRONG CONSIDERATION FOR THESE AREAS ONLY. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST ICING LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT
MEET CRITERIA.
I DECIDED NOT TO DO AN ADVISORY BECAUSE THE WARMING TREND HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT OUR ICING PERIOD MAY BE VERY BRIEF AND
PERHAPS EVEN COVERED BY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER TODAY.
BOTTOM LINE IS THIS FORECAST IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR AND I
FEEL CONFIDENCE WILL BE A BIT BETTER WITH ANOTHER SET OF MODEL
RUNS UNDER OUR BELT. NO MATTER WHAT, ICING AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH AT ALL.
BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT, A DRY SLOT SHOULD END
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE COLDER AIR
ONT HE BACKSIDE SOME A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE DRY SLOT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
IT IS MID NOVEMBER SO SOME COLD AIR IS NOT UNUSUAL. HOWEVER...THE
AIR MASS THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ACTUALLY IS QUITE A
BIT ANOMALOUS...MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER. 500MB HEIGHTS REACH
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DIVES TO ONLY ABOUT 505 DECAMETERS. HIGHS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN 25-32 DEGREE RANGE...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MID
TEENS-LOW 20S. WINDS ALSO FAIRLY STOUT WHICH WILL MAKE SINGLE
DIGIT TO TEENS WIND CHILLS COMMON.
THE NEW SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN VIA WSW FLOW WHICH WILL
DIRECT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA INITIALLY
TUESDAY /EXCEPT FOR SOME OF LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWERS STILL CROSSING
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING/. THAT BEING
SAID...THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
SITUATIONS WHERE JUST ABOUT EVERY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
DENDRITES...AND THE FORECAST AT LEAST INCLUDES MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA.
PROSPECTS FOR A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE TUESDAY...REDIRECTING LAKE
ONTARIO BAND INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY /WITH UPSTREAM LAKE-TO-
LAKE CONNECTIONS/...IS BECOMING APPARENT IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE. IF THIS HOLDS UP...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW WATER
CONTENT FLUFFY SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL MONITOR UPCOMING MODELS AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LAKE ERIE MOISTURE WILL ALSO
MOVE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS STEUBEN/YATES COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER THU SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH THE EURO
TRACKING A SFC LOW DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE GFS
KEEPING A COLD MORE W-NW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION. FOR GRIDS
KEPT IDEA OF LES SNOWS DEVELOPING AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NWRLY THU
NGT-SAT SIMILAR TO GFS. THE 12Z EURO WUD SUGGEST A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT FOR MUCH OF NE PA/C NY FRI WITH MORE LES IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR TODAY...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER THIS EVENING AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...A COUPLE
LAYERS OF CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT AND 10-12 KFT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...AND EVEN BRIEFLY SOME NON-RESTRICTIVE LIGHT FLURRIES KITH-
KSYR. CLOUDS THICKEN THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW DEVELOPS 04Z-08Z AND
QUICKLY BECOMES IFR VIS WITH FUEL ALT REQ CIG. KAVP WILL CHANGE TO
-RA SOON AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT -FZRA WILL MIX IN WITH
THE -SN KBGM-KELM AROUND 10Z-12Z. WINDS BECOMING SSW AROUND 10
KTS DURING THE DAY...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN BACK TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE TO WED...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
THUR...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT RME AND SYR OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM UPDATE...
AS ANTICIPATED...VERY LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE MANAGED TO MATERIALIZE
AS ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT IS PASSING THROUGH. VIRGA
REPRESENTS MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS...BUT OLEAN AND WELLSVILLE
MANAGED BRIEF FLURRIES...AND NOW ITHACA AS WELL. HRRR AND RUC
FINALLY CAUGHT UP TO IT...BUT THE FLURRIES ARE STILL ABSENT IN THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MODELS. GRIDS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED TO
MATCH MINOR TEMPERATURE DETAILS AND SUCH...BUT FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET YET COLD CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND TODAY.
THOUGH THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY KITH-KSYR LATER THIS MORNING SHOW SATURATION
IN THE 5 TO 15 KFT AGL LAYER...WEAK LIFT...AND NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES /ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS/. MINOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO OCCURS ON THE 290-295K
SURFACES...A RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. SO DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN OPERATIONAL MODELS...I BELIEVE
ABILITY FOR GENERATING DENDRITE FLURRIES WILL BE THERE...THE
QUESTION IS WILL THEY SURVIVE THEIR TRIP THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR. I ADDED CHANCE OF FLURRIES FROM FINGER LAKES THROUGH NY
THRUWAY AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WHATEVER FALLS /IF ANY/
WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE.
HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY UPPER 30S-MID 40S...ROUGHLY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
SATURDAY YET STILL A WAYS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN
REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THAT
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A FASTER CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN MANY AREAS.
PRECIP STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AT THE
ONSET, MOSTLY ALL SNOW FOR EVERYONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW RAIN
AT THE ONSET IN PLACES SUCH AS KAVP. I BELIEVE EVEN HERE HOWEVER
EVAPORATE COOLING SHOULD GIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR EVEN SOME
ICE PELLETS AT THE START. WARMING ALOFT MOVES IN QUICK WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWING THE 850 MB 0C LINE UP TO NEAR KBGM BY 12Z AND
APPROACHING KSYR BY 18Z. AT THE SAME TIME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
THAT ARE MARGINAL AT THE START, WILL WARM ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST, NOT IN A GOOD SPOT FOR LOCKING IN COLD AIR.
WITH THAT IN MIND LOOKING FOR A SNOW TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN FROM
MORNING (SOUTHEAST) TO AFTERNOON (NORTHWEST), WITH SOME SLEET AND LIMITED
ICING POSSIBLE DURING THAT TRANSITION. HIGHEST SNOW POTENTIAL FAR
NORTHWEST (BATH TO AUBURN TO BOONVILLE LINE) WHERE 0C LINE DOES
NOT MAKE IT UNTIL 18Z MONDAY. EVEN HERE HOWEVER MIX POTENTIAL WILL
CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL TOTALS AND STILL THINKING IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AT BEST.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND THAT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY.
NO ICING IS EXPECTED IN WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA BUT LIGHT ICING IS
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ALONG WITH WAYNE COUNTY, PA AND
SULLIVAN, NY. THESE ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND NORMAL LAST HOLD
OUTS FOR COLD AIR. ANY AMOUNT OF ICE JUSTIFIES A WINTER ADVISORY
AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH PHILLY, NYC, AND ALBANY THIS WAS GIVEN
A STRONG CONSIDERATION FOR THESE AREAS ONLY. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST ICING LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT
MEET CRITERIA.
I DECIDED NOT TO DO AN ADVISORY BECAUSE THE WARMING TREND HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT OUR ICING PERIOD MAY BE VERY BRIEF AND
PERHAPS EVEN COVERED BY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER TODAY.
BOTTOM LINE IS THIS FORECAST IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR AND I
FEEL CONFIDENCE WILL BE A BIT BETTER WITH ANOTHER SET OF MODEL
RUNS UNDER OUR BELT. NO MATTER WHAT, ICING AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH AT ALL.
BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT, A DRY SLOT SHOULD END
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE COLDER AIR
ONT HE BACKSIDE SOME A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE DRY SLOT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
IT IS MID NOVEMBER SO SOME COLD AIR IS NOT UNUSUAL. HOWEVER...THE
AIR MASS THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ACTUALLY IS QUITE A
BIT ANOMALOUS...MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER. 500MB HEIGHTS REACH
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DIVES TO ONLY ABOUT 505 DECAMETERS. HIGHS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN 25-32 DEGREE RANGE...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MID
TEENS-LOW 20S. WINDS ALSO FAIRLY STOUT WHICH WILL MAKE SINGLE
DIGIT TO TEENS WIND CHILLS COMMON.
THE NEW SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN VIA WSW FLOW WHICH WILL
DIRECT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA INITIALLY
TUESDAY /EXCEPT FOR SOME OF LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWERS STILL CROSSING
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING/. THAT BEING
SAID...THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
SITUATIONS WHERE JUST ABOUT EVERY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
DENDRITES...AND THE FORECAST AT LEAST INCLUDES MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA.
PROSPECTS FOR A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE TUESDAY...REDIRECTING LAKE
ONTARIO BAND INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY /WITH UPSTREAM LAKE-TO-
LAKE CONNECTIONS/...IS BECOMING APPARENT IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE. IF THIS HOLDS UP...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW WATER
CONTENT FLUFFY SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL MONITOR UPCOMING MODELS AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LAKE ERIE MOISTURE WILL ALSO
MOVE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS STEUBEN/YATES COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER THU SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH THE EURO
TRACKING A SFC LOW DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE GFS
KEEPING A COLD MORE W-NW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION. FOR GRIDS
KEPT IDEA OF LES SNOWS DEVELOPING AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NWRLY THU
NGT-SAT SIMILAR TO GFS. THE 12Z EURO WUD SUGGEST A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT FOR MUCH OF NE PA/C NY FRI WITH MORE LES IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR TODAY...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER THIS EVENING AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...A COUPLE
LAYERS OF CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT AND 10-12 KFT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...AND EVEN BRIEFLY SOME NON-RESTRICTIVE LIGHT FLURRIES KITH-
KSYR. CLOUDS THICKEN THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW DEVELOPS 04Z-08Z AND
QUICKLY BECOMES IFR VIS WITH FUEL ALT REQ CIG. KAVP WILL CHANGE TO
-RA SOON AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT -FZRA WILL MIX IN WITH
THE -SN KBGM-KELM AROUND 10Z-12Z. WINDS BECOMING SSW AROUND 10
KTS DURING THE DAY...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN BACK TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE TO WED...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
THUR...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT RME AND SYR OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
SAT LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME HOLES
HERE AND THERE. MORE CONCENTRATED CLEARING IS STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CANADA. RAP HAS DECENT RH VALUES IN THE 925 TO
850MB LAYER MATCHING UP WITH THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARDS MORNING. BUMPED UP CLOUDS COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED IN THE TEENS WHILE THE FEW
CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE
THERE APPEAR TO BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK WITH THE WEST
STAYING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUDS UP A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AS SAT LOOP AND OBS
SHOWED QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAD GOING IN THE
GRIDS. ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THERE HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SOME FLAKES. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST DEPENDING ON WHAT CLOUD
COVER DOES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO LINGER THE
LONGEST IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...BUT JUST HOW COLD
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET. EXPECT THAT SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR WILL
DROP TO AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...WITH CLOUDY AREAS WARMER.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 20 WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WAA ALOFT. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE TO THE S/SW...SO SNOW FREE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOW/MID
20S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SPREADING
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL
MUCH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME WIND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED...AND TEMPS
COULD PEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WIND WITH ABOUT
35-40KT TO MIX FROM 925 MB...SO THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SOME SNOW COVER. IT WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...A BLUSTERY DAY.
ON THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MINIMAL MIXING...WITH
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS AT THE SFC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A BREEZIER DAY FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THEN TURNS MORE ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING
THRU. THE MAIN EFFECTS LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS WAVE. A SECOND MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH MOVES IN BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH THE SFC PATTERN BY 12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MUCH STRONGER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH. KEPT THE IDEA OF BROADBRUSHED SNOW CHANCES
SUN/MON AND WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
CONTINUED TO KEEP CIGS AT THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF BOUNCING BETWEEN CATEGORIES AND PERIODIC
FLURRIES. THINK THERE WILL BE LESS FLURRIES AFTER THIS EVENING BUT
THE LOWER VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR BY MORNING
ALTHOUGH LOWER CIGS WILL HANG AROUND KBJI A BIT LONGER. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
THESE BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY CAUSED VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HETTINGER WAS AFFECTED BY A BAND AND WENT
DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY FOR ABOUT AN HOUR FROM
1619Z-1717Z. HETTINGER IS NOW BACK UP TO ALMOST TWO MILES
VISIBILITY. IT WAS THE ONLY OB IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THESE CONDITIONS. ALL OTHER OBS AND REGIONAL WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO
OBSERVE VISIBILITY GREATER THAN ONE HALF A MILE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND CONSIDERING THAT
BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA IS 35 MPH WINDS...AND ONE QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY FOR THREE HOURS OR LONGER...STILL THINK THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW LOOKS GOOD. WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE WSW AND NPW FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
MSAS ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE RACING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE INITIAL SURGE/ISALLOBARIC
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN NEAR 45 MPH. REGIONAL WEBCAMS SHOWED
VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED BETWEEN ONE TO ONE HALF MILE WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES WERE IMPROVING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BEACH NOW REPORTING 2 MILE VISIBLITIES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING
SNOW AND WIND ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FOR THIS UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TODAY IN CASE HEADLINES NEED TO BE
UPDATED. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATED THE WSW AND NPW TO CHANGE
"SUNDAY" WORDING TO "TODAY". THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE JUST ENTERING NORTHEAST
MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS OF 12 UTC. THIS PRESSURE
RISE BUBBLE OBSERVED AROUND 6MB/3 HR...IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE. THESE STRONGER
PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW BEING CAPTURED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND 11
UTC RAP...WHICH PROPAGATE THE RISE BUBBLE DIRECTLY OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW PACK OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING...THE SOUTHWEST
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE TO HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTH BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BY 18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS TO ADD KIDDER COUNTY SINCE THEIR
SNOWFALL TOTAL LAST WEEKEND WAS COMPARABLE WITH BURLEIGH COUNTY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE SIMILAR IN BOTH LOCATIONS TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DARKENING SIGNATURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHWEAN.
AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF
6MB ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY
LOCATED FROM KALISPELL MONTANA TO SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN...AND
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE WINNIPEG MANITOBA. THE MAXIMUM 3HR PRESSURE
BUBBLE OF 4 TO 5 MB IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. THE RAP13
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL LOCATION AND LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF CURRENT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET. EXPECT THE MAX PRESSURE
FALLS BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...WITH PRESSURE RISES
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SIGNIFYING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HENCE THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY ALL LOOK
ON TRACK. OVERALL...AN AVERAGE RANGE OF SUSTAINED/MAX GUSTS PER
NAM/GFS/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE 80M HRRR SHOWS NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25KT-35KT...AND GUSTS OF 35KT-45KT.
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXIT BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC MIXING CONTINUING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE
LACKING THE NEEDED MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
KDIK. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-
021.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-037-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035-036-046-
047-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
957 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
MSAS ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE RACING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE INITIAL SURGE/ISALLOBARIC
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN NEAR 45 MPH. REGIONAL WEBCAMS SHOWED
VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED BETWEEN ONE TO ONE HALF MILE WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES WERE IMPROVING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BEACH NOW REPORTING 2 MILE VISIBLITIES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING
SNOW AND WIND ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FOR THIS UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TODAY IN CASE HEADLINES NEED TO BE
UPDATED. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATED THE WSW AND NPW TO CHANGE
"SUNDAY" WORDING TO "TODAY". THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE JUST ENTERING NORTHEAST
MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS OF 12 UTC. THIS PRESSURE
RISE BUBBLE OBSERVED AROUND 6MB/3 HR...IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE. THESE STRONGER
PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW BEING CAPTURED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND 11
UTC RAP...WHICH PROPAGATE THE RISE BUBBLE DIRECTLY OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW PACK OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING...THE SOUTHWEST
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE TO HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTH BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BY 18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS TO ADD KIDDER COUNTY SINCE THEIR
SNOWFALL TOTAL LAST WEEKEND WAS COMPARABLE WITH BURLEIGH COUNTY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE SIMILAR IN BOTH LOCATIONS TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DARKENING SIGNATURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHWEAN.
AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF
6MB ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY
LOCATED FROM KALISPELL MONTANA TO SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN...AND
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE WINNIPEG MANITOBA. THE MAXIMUM 3HR PRESSURE
BUBBLE OF 4 TO 5 MB IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. THE RAP13
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL LOCATION AND LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF CURRENT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET. EXPECT THE MAX PRESSURE
FALLS BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...WITH PRESSURE RISES
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SIGNIFYING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HENCE THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY ALL LOOK
ON TRACK. OVERALL...AN AVERAGE RANGE OF SUSTAINED/MAX GUSTS PER
NAM/GFS/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE 80M HRRR SHOWS NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25KT-35KT...AND GUSTS OF 35KT-45KT.
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXIT BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC MIXING CONTINUING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE
LACKING THE NEEDED MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHERN BORDER AT 12Z SUNDAY TO
THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY 18Z SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AT KDIK
AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBIS. OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS...LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VSBYS AROUND 6SM AT TIMES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-
021.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-037-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035-036-046-
047-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE JUST ENTERING NORTHEAST
MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS OF 12 UTC. THIS PRESSURE
RISE BUBBLE OBSERVED AROUND 6MB/3 HR...IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE. THESE STRONGER
PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW BEING CAPTURED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND 11
UTC RAP...WHICH PROPAGATE THE RISE BUBBLE DIRECTLY OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW PACK OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING...THE SOUTHWEST
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE TO HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTH BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BY 18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS TO ADD KIDDER COUNTY SINCE THEIR
SNOWFALL TOTAL LAST WEEKEND WAS COMPARABLE WITH BURLEIGH COUNTY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE SIMILAR IN BOTH LOCATIONS TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DARKENING SIGNATURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHWEAN.
AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF
6MB ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY
LOCATED FROM KALISPELL MONTANA TO SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN...AND
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE WINNIPEG MANITOBA. THE MAXIMUM 3HR PRESSURE
BUBBLE OF 4 TO 5 MB IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. THE RAP13
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL LOCATION AND LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF CURRENT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET. EXPECT THE MAX PRESSURE
FALLS BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...WITH PRESSURE RISES
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SIGNIFYING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HENCE THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY ALL LOOK
ON TRACK. OVERALL...AN AVERAGE RANGE OF SUSTAINED/MAX GUSTS PER
NAM/GFS/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE 80M HRRR SHOWS NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25KT-35KT...AND GUSTS OF 35KT-45KT.
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXIT BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC MIXING CONTINUING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE
LACKING THE NEEDED MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHERN BORDER AT 12Z SUNDAY TO
THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY 18Z SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AT KDIK
AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBIS. OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS...LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VSBYS AROUND 6SM AT TIMES
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-
021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-037-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ035-036-046-047-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
341 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE TO HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTH BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BY 18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS TO ADD KIDDER COUNTY SINCE THEIR
SNOWFALL TOTAL LAST WEEKEND WAS COMPARABLE WITH BURLEIGH COUNTY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE SIMILAR IN BOTH LOCATIONS TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DARKENING SIGNATURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHWEAN.
AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF
6MB ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY
LOCATED FROM KALISPELL MONTANA TO SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN...AND
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE WINNIPEG MANITOBA. THE MAXIMUM 3HR PRESSURE
BUBBLE OF 4 TO 5 MB IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. THE RAP13
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL LOCATION AND LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF CURRENT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET. EXPECT THE MAX PRESSURE
FALLS BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...WITH PRESSURE RISES
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SIGNIFYING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HENCE THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY ALL LOOK
ON TRACK. OVERALL...AN AVERAGE RANGE OF SUSTAINED/MAX GUSTS PER
NAM/GFS/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE 80M HRRR SHOWS NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25KT-35KT...AND GUSTS OF 35KT-45KT.
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXIT BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC MIXING CONTINUING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN TO A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND IN A BROAD VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SIGNAL A RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
TO STILL BELOW NORMAL...YET MORE TOLERABLE HIGHS NEAR FREEZING BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE
LACKING THE NEEDED MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHERN BORDER AT 12Z SUNDAY TO
THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY 18Z SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AT KDIK
AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBIS. OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS...LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VSBYS AROUND 6SM AT TIMES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-037-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ035-036-046-047-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER AROUND 6AM (WESTERN CWA) TO
9AM (EASTERN CWA). PRECIPITATION WILL END SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE. WHEN IT DOES (15Z-21Z
ACROSS THE CWA)...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND JUST
TEMPERATURES...AS A SUDDENLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
GENERATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AT ABOUT 4000 FEET...THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...FLURRIES (POSSIBLY EVEN
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO) ARE QUITE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS)...AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO 10-15 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO.
MIN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT / EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION UNDER A VERY ANOMALOUS AIR
MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB OF AROUND -20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WORKS OUT TO ROUGHLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE TO 3 AND A HALF. OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER TEENS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH SOME ISOLATED READINGS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS QUITE POSSIBLE. RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING (NOVEMBER 18) ARE GOING TO BE THREATENED.
CVG...12 DEGREES...1880
CMH...10 DEGREES...1880
DAY...13 DEGREES...1959
WHILE RECORDS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY A
POSSIBILITY...RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SEEM A NEAR
CERTAINTY...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. THE RECORDS FOR LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER 18 ARE
LISTED BELOW.
CVG...26 DEGREES...1951
CMH...26 DEGREES...1903
DAY...27 DEGREES...1951 AND 1903
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN DIVERGE SOME THEREAFTER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM...THEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/WPC GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE SE
UNITED STATES. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AIR ADVECT ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
PUSH STRATOCUMULUS AND FLURRY THREAT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOWS GIVEN THERE WILL STILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. WILL FORECAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
MOSTLY IN THE 0 TO -5 RANGE.
S/WV AND WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AND HAVE
LIMITED LOW POPS/THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN ZONES. IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID
30S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
NOVEMBER.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN
REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF RESURGING ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BLEED BACK
INTO OUR AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IT SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS KEEP ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH ARCTIC AIR BACK NORTH INTO CANADA
WHILE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BE OF
A PACIFIC ORIGIN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BUT IT APPEARS THAT
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN ALONG WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PCPN FROM THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM HAS YET TO REALLY AFFECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KDAY WHEN THE IFR
SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED. SRN TAFS HAVE SEEN THEIR CIGS ALREADY
FALL TO IFR WHILE THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS ARE STILL MVFR.
SNOW SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS SRN INDIANA/NRN KENTUCKY AND LIFT UP
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06-12Z. AT
KCMH/KLCK THE PCPN SHOULD STAY RAIN LONGER...PAST 06Z...BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TAFS AFT 06Z.
LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE BACK
EDGE...SO HELD ONTO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS UNTIL 13-15Z. AS THE PCPN
ENDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 20S. CAA ALOFT ON THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ063-064-
070>072-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-065-073-074-081-082.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY FOR KYZ098-099.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
SE UNITED STATES. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AIR ADVECT ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH STRATOCUMULUS AND FLURRY THREAT TO THE EAST DURING THE
EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. HAVE TAKEN A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOWS GIVEN THERE WILL STILL BE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL FORECAST 10 TO 15 WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 0 TO -5 RANGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE ECMWF BECOMES THE ODD MODEL OUT IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED. HAVE GONE WITH WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS A GFS SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.
S/WV AND WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AND HAVE
LIMITED LOW POPS/THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN ZONES. IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID
30S...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED....COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A PATTERN
SHIFT BY THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH ARCTIC
AIR BACK NORTH INTO CANADA AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE WEST IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
WAA PATTERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CIGS ARE FOUND OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RETURNS THAT
ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF CWA AND TAF
SITES. A FEW LOWER CIGS IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL MIX UPWARDS TO VFR IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A SNOW
STORM OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AND COMBINE WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. WHILE ANY OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
DROPS TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE
MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLEARING FROM W-E WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT WEST AND INCREASE TO 12KT...HIGHER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>054-060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR OHZ063-064-070>072-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-065-073-074-081-082.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR KYZ094>097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY FOR KYZ098-099.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1144 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT WHILE A STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS RAINFALL
TO THE AREA INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST SATURDAY...
FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETREATING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MILDER TEMPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE
AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS. LATEST LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE KEEP
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SPREADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/7AM.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A BROAD AREA
OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY REACHING OUR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS TOMORROW MID-40S TO NEAR 50 AS THE LOWERING/THICKENING
CLOUD COVER OFFSETS WARM ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS +4 TO +7C RANGE BY
00Z MONDAY AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO ARRIVE WHICH SHOULD ENSURE AN
ALL-LIQUID EVENT FROM THE ONSET... ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME QUICK
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING A SURFACE WAVE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAVE WILL THEN TRACK INLAND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY.
STORM CONCERNS WILL BE P-TYPE AND AMOUNTS. WARM AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION AS THIS LOW TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST SUNDAY
EVENING TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME
THE COLD AIR ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. MOISTURE AND COLD AIR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
THEN BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES WITH
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE TO THE BLUE RIDGE. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES
LIKELY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE P-TYPE CONCERNS AS RESIDUAL INSITU
WEDGE MAY LINGER OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR MAY EXPERIENCE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND BRIEFLY FALL AS SLEET...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
DOES NOT START TO FALL UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. IF RAIN ADVANCES
OVER AN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
AS RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES EAST.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. PRESSURE RISES AND
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG RIDGETOPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. WIND
CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING MAYBE AROUND
ZERO.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK
EARLY...POSSIBLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP OFF
DRAMATICALLY AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN. MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 10F-20F TO 20F-30F EAST. NOT MUCH OF A
WARMUP ON TUESDAY WITH MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT ABOVE
FREEZING AND IN THE EAST PEAKING OUT IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20F COLDER THAN NORMAL. MORE WARMING ON
THURSDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10F COLDER THAN NORMAL. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE CURRENT COLD
SPELL WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
KEEP THE AREA DRY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER EAST COAST LATE THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING.
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AFTER 00Z/7PM. TIMING COULD BE A BIT FASTER AT KLWB AND KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
IP/SN POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS SINK TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH NW
FLOW WORKING MUCH COLDER AIR IN AGAIN...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS DRY
OUT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE TURBULENT FLYING CONDITIONS MON NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR EAST AND
STAYING MVFR/IFR IN THE MTNS TIL LATER TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WIND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 PM EST SATURDAY...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-HALF /0.50/ INCH OVER THE NORTHERN RIVER BASINS UP TO ABOUT
ONE /1.00/ INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN RIVER BASINS BY THE TIME IT ENDS
LATE MONDAY. THE RAINFALL IS NEEDED AS PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER
TO DATE HAS BEEN VERY SCANTY. MOST OF THE COOP NETWORK SITES HAVE
RECEIVED UNDER 0.50 INCHES FOR THE MONTH AND SOME LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES. A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT IN OUR CWA IS
ALREADY IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY ON THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE PAST 60
DAYS. THE DRY PERIOD IS REFLECTED IN DECLINING STREAM FLOWS AS
MONITORED BY THE USGS STREAM GAGING NETWORK AND ALSO BY FALLING
RESERVOIR STORAGE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 645 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN TECHNICHIANS WILL REPLACE THE
SENSOR. UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS STAFFED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...AMS/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. 16.12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
19.12Z...DIVERGING SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SHORT-WAVES MOVING THROUGH PARENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
16.20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ARCTIC/COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM NEAR ROSEAU MN TO ABERDEEN SD. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
WITH IT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AMOUNTING TO NO MORE THAN AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND STRONG NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS WAKE.
SURFACE OBS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ND SHOWING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND ALTHOUGH THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY
SOMEWHAT AS IT DROPS SOUTH...16.19Z RAP BRINGS A NOSE OF 35 TO 40
KTS AT 0.5 KM INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A DEEPENING WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL
FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...
REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FROM 17.12Z TO 18.00Z
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
POOR VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
850 HPA TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -18 C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
18.12Z (TUESDAY MORNING). THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST MORNING
SO FAR THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO WITH FAVORED COLD SPOTS DROPPING BELOW ZERO. COMBINED
WITH WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
SHOULD SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS MONDAY/S SNOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TEENS.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MOST SNOW WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND
EAST NEAREST THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND HIGHEST MOISTURE...
ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS FULLY ENTRECHED WITHIN ARCTIC AIR MASS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD RIVAL THOSE FROM TUESDAY MORNING.
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS BY
THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 16.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST WITH ITS
PRECIP THAN THE GFS...SO FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH
WITH 20 TO 30 POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP GIVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014
ALL EYES ON APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO MAKE PASSAGE
THROUGH KRST AND KLSE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SWING WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW AT KRST. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BEE SEEN MONDAY MORNING AS THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES IN. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WITH GUST NEARING 30KT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT KRST. KLSE LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MORE SHELTERED BUT SOME DRIFTING MAY STILL BE NOTED.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR SKY CONDITIONS DETERIORATING INTO MVFR
BETWEEN 23-24Z WITH SOME FLURRIES. PLAN ON KRST TO SLIP INTO SOME
IFR VIS/CIGS BY 15Z AS BLSN BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ086-
087-094-095.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008-
009-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
101 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN
A CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST SOUTH OF
FLL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT APF AROUND 9Z...THEN
ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK AND INCREASE INTO THE
MODERATE RANGE. A LOW-LEVEL STABLE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH
A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF CYCLE OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO EVENING UPDATES BUT DID
REALIGN THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL LAGGING WAY BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER BAND CURRENTLY
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS BAND WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT AND THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HINTS AT SO TOOK THIS
APPROACH.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL VERY LATE. THE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER CENTRAL FL ARE DISSIPATING AND THE HRRR SHOWS IT RAIN-FREE
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY DAWN AS
THE FRONT MOVES BY AND WINDS TURN NW. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH
VFR/DRY THROUGH DAWN THEN VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT FOR THE
DAY TUE. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE CONUS SINCE
THIS WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BEAR IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING ITS BASE HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DIVING INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE FRONTS EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT BY THE TIME THE FEATURE REACHES NORTHERN
CWA...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL AS
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTMS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT DECAYING SQUALL FEATURE MAKES IT NORTH OF
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE LINE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL
MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT HIS INHIBITED MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN SOARING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEST PALM BEACH HAS ALREADY
REACHED A DAILY RECORD WITH MAXIMA AT LEAST 88F. MIAMI AND FORT
LAUDERDALE ALSO HAVE RECORDS THAT ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION OVER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRONG
COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL CAUSING
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS...MAXIMA
LIKELY TO BE NEAR 12Z TUESDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RANGE FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO AROUND 60F ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND WEDNESDAYS MAXIMA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...OVERTOP THE
COOL AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK...ALLOWING NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND COASTAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INLAND FROM THE EAST FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RIDGE IS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SUBSEQUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED SHRAS/TSRAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEHIND IT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FROPA AROUND 10Z-12Z AT KPBI AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AT THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST SITES. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...THEREFORE KEPT ONLY VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. GENERALLY
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE. PREVAILED MVFR FOR NOW AS
INDICATED BY SREF PROBABILITIES.
MARINE...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING NEARLY
IMMEDIATE 25 KTS NORTH WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 57 72 63 / 60 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 60 74 65 / 50 20 40 20
MIAMI 76 59 73 65 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 68 48 68 55 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
905 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...MODELS STILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOG ALREADY FORMING IN WESTERN IDAHO BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE UP VALLEY.
WILL HAVE TO RELY ON RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESS TO MOISTEN UP. SO
FAR SFC DEWPTS ARE FALLING IN STEP WITH THE TEMPS. HRRR SILL
FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WILL LEAVE PATCHY
FOG MENTION IN PLACE IN THE GRIDS. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE ICE
JAM SITUATION ON THE HENRYS. RIVER GAGE AND REPORTS FROM ERMGENCY
MANAGEMENT INDICATE THAT THE ICE JAM HAS BROKEN AND THE RIVER HAS
FALLEN. CURRENT TEMPS SUBZERO AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BROKEN
CHANNEL IS NARROW. ICE COULD REFORM...SO NO HARM IN LEAVING
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL PLANNED EXPIRATION. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE KEEPING INVERSIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
EXPECT VERY COLD CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. MAINLY EXPECT SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AS WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
PUSHES INLAND INTO CENTRAL OREGON. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD BE SNOW
BUT COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE SNAKE PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT A BIG SYSTEM AND NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WITH IT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. FLOOD WATCH FOR HENRYS FORK NEAR ST ANTHONY
STILL IN EFFECT DUE TO ICE JAM. LATEST RIVER GAGE READING HAS
SHOWN LEVEL DROPPING.
GK
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HONE IN ON SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST AND WINDIEST DAY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED. A SPLITTING SYSTEM SHOULD LEAVE US WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEEKEND STORM ARRIVES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY SWINGS ACROSS ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS
REALLY DUMP MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG AN APPARENT
WARM FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. THE
QUESTION WILL BE SNOW LEVELS...INCLUDING HOW MUCH CAN WE SCOUR OUT
THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM LAST
WEEK`S STORM IS THAT WE HAVE SNOW COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE PUSHING SNOW LEVELS AT THE
4500-5500FT RANGE. WHILE AMOUNTS WOULDN`T NECESSARILY BE TOO
HIGH...WINDS WOULD CREATE HIGHER IMPACTS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
AS WITH THIS PATTERN...WE ALWAYS HAVE TO LOOK OUR FOR ANY PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WE AREN`T CONFIDENT IN THAT
OCCURRING...BUT IT`S ALWAYS A POTENTIAL IMPACT. WE ARE EXPECTING
LINGERING SNOW FOR FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. A RIDGE
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST HEADING INTO THE
PRE-THANSKGIVING PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLES ACTUALLY FAVOR A LITTLE
STRONGER RIDGING THAN WHAT THE ACTUAL MODELS ARE SHOWING...WHICH
COULD SPELL DRIER FOR US. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. KEYES
AVIATION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO UNTIL WE SEE A PATTERN CHANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. AT ANY TIME...WE COULD DROPS TO IFR AT KPIH AND KIDA DUE TO
THIS PROBLEM. AN OVERALL DOWNVALLEY WIND SHOULD KEEP KBYI CLEARED
OUT ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE IT TRY TO CREEP IN IF THE WINDS LET UP A
BIT. KSUN SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR...LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY DUE TO
LACK OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
DAY AND DOWNVALLEY WINDS AT NIGHT. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IDZ019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
433 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES FROM AROUND ZERO
TO TEN BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND ISSUES
AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRESW ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER WI
HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE...CROSSING
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS TO PERSIST WITH
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH LAST
REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO 15 TO
18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL VARY WITH
AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR TOLL ROAD
AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN. COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE AND
DIURNAL TIMING TO CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE TO BANDS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT THROUGH THE DAY
AS FLOW BACKS. STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY WILL CREATE
HAVOC ON ROADS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS FROM
00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE FALLING
OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING
RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY
AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS
MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART STILL
SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER GARCIA/MIXING
RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS INDICATED WITH OVER 2
G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN
AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T
VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
925-850MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A MORE NORTHWEST ORIENTATION LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A DOMINATE SOUTHERN BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO KSBN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RATHER
STATIONARY BAND AND LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BAND MAY
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW REMAINS 925-850MB FLOW REMAINS
WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL MID MORNING. THUS HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE MID MORNING. FLOW
THEN BACKS SOUTHWEST AND SNOW SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF KSBN. KFWA
CURRENTLY VFR BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN INDIANA HEADING EAST SO MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SYM...SJS...AND JKL TAF SITES
WITH TIMES OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. THE CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE SNOW FADES OUT...COMPLETELY DISAPPEARING
DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT THEN PICK UP DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH INCREASED GUSTINESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN SO...THEY
ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW PLACES.
EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MANY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS ENDED UP SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHER THAN
IT ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES AND PATTERNS ALOFT...BUT LACK THE SAME AT THE SFC AND WITH
SENSIBLE WEATHER. DEEP...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR RECENT SUCCESSION OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL SEE
ONE LAST BATCH OF ENERGY DROP INTO ITS BASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WEATHER PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED FLOW THEREAFTER TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS POOREST DURING THE TRANSITION IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH OUR AREA
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM. A DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOW ENTERS THE
FORECAST PICTURE AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS OF
A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND AS SUCH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE MODERATE TYPE
WEATHER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE.
MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC DETAILS OF A MID WEEK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS THE NAM AND GFS STILL APPEAR TO FOCUS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW TOPPED...ISOLD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM DURING A LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA DRY. BASED ON LATEST SOLUTIONS DID EXTEND
POPS SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE CWA WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. ALSO
BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH DETAILS OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE WITH THE
GENERAL SCENARIO OF A QUICK RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE MORE INDECISIVE WITH SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE
MAIN STORM SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE GFS DOES HINT AT SOME
INSTABILITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BUT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF
YEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WAS NOT READY TO INTRODUCE
ANY THUNDER ATTM. ALSO...WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TENDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. THAT BEING THE CASE EXPECT A GRADUALLY
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY WITH
RESPECT TO DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SYM...SJS...AND JKL TAF SITES
WITH TIMES OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. THE CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE SNOW FADES OUT...COMPLETELY DISAPPEARING
DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT THEN PICK UP DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH INCREASED GUSTINESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO UPGRADE BARAGA COUNTY FROM LES ADVISORY
TO WARNING. WE JUST RECEIVED A PUBLIC REPORT NEAR ALSTON OF 10" IN
12 HOURS IN THE PAST HR. GIVEN THAT MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE GOOD
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A STRETCH FOR PLACES ALONG THE HOUGHTON COUNTY BORDER TO
SEE STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 14 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO
SEE SOME STORM TOTALS APPROACH A FOOT OR MORE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS SE OF L`ANSE AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN HEAVIER
LES BANDS OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE REST OF THE HEADLINES..AND
SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
CONTINENT AND A SHARP...DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE CNTRL
PART. WITH THE RIDGE...THE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY PEAKS AT 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER FAR NW
CANADA WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM TROF IS DEEPENING TOWARD 3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW AVG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EVENING.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SFC
TROF EXTENDING SW INTO WRN UPPER MI. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL/CWPL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING UP PAST 500MB WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -19/-20C RESPECTIVELY...OBVIOUSLY A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HVY
SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LES TRENDS/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
HEADLINES.
MDT/HVY SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE AND ESSENTIALLY AN ABSENT INVERSION ALLOW FOR DEEP LAKE
EFFECT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DGZ IS ONLY AROUND 2KFT THICK...FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IT IDEALLY PLACED WITHIN MAX UPWARD MOTION. HIGHER
RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT IN AN AREA FROM KIWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND ALSO
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. THUS...
EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE W GETS A BETTER
BOOST FROM TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...A NICE LAKE NIPIGON CONNECTION AND
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE OFF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN BOTH AREAS MAY SEE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 20 INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW
DIMINISHES/ENDS. OTHERWISE...12-18 INCHES OF SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
THE RULE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY
EXTEND INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT TONIGHT. IF DOMINANT BAND SETS UP AND
DOESN`T MOVE MUCH FOR SEVERAL HRS...AMOUNTS MAY SNEAK INTO WARNING
CRITERIA THERE. OVER NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH SUB WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN LACK OF
ENHANCING FACTORS THAT ARE PRESENT IN THE OTHER AFORMENTIONED
AREAS. BEST POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE SOUTH OF
PAINESDALE AND PERHAPS NRN KEWEENAW COUNTY AS LAKE NIPIGON
CONNECTION MAY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...SO THAT WILL BE A FACTOR
SUPPORTING MAINTAINING WARNING HEADLINES FOR NOW. CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE A BIT TOO MUCH OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE
COUNTY. HAVE LOWERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BRUSHING THE SHORELINE AREAS.
IN PARTICULAR...THE AREA TOWARD SHOT POINT MAY BE AFFECTED BY HVY
SNOW AT TIMES. WRN PART OF THE COUNTY MAY SEE FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NW.
FOR NOW...MAINTAINED MARQUETTE COUNTY ADVY...BUT EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP ADVY IF IT DOES APPEAR HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN E.
ON TUE...DEEP MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS E...LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC AND OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS
WILL SPELL DIMINISHING LES FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY. BACKING WINDS
WILL PUSH LINGERING -SHSN N OF KIWD DURING THE AFTN AND SHIFT THE
BACK EDGE OF LES EASTWARD WITH TIME IN CNTRL UPPER MI. THOSE BACKING
WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A NARROW ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING
N OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATER IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN A NARROW
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING N TOWARD HOUGHTON IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND GUSTY NW WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EXIT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND
THEN TO MVFR BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MOST OF FCST PERIOD WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOSS
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES LOOK RATHER STRONG ON
RADAR WITH 20-25DBZ ECHOES SEEN BETWEEN 8700-10000FT. ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA SOUTH TOWARD KHYR.
THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A GRAVITY WAVE AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO BACK. THE RAP INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE GRAVITY WAVE BAND TO REFORM/INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE AS THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS
STRONG...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
AT 352 PM...SNOW HAD STARTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE OF IRON COUNTY. OUR SNOWFALL OBSERVER IN GILE
REPORTED 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL TODAY...BUT IT HAD JUST RECENTLY
STARTED TO INTENSIFY. FURTHER WEST...4 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN
IN THE IRON RIVER AREA...FROM PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THAT HAD SET
UP IN THAT AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS
GENERALLY SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH SHORE THERE WAS LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS DEFINITELY THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT A BIT TOO WESTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE WRF INDICATE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BECOME INTENSE DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF UP TO AN AMAZING 5 KM. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
AREA...FOR A TOTAL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. FURTHER WEST...WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY...WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY DROP
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW IN MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS EAST THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ALONG A DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
/AROUND 80 KTS AT H5/ AND WITH AROUND 24 HOURS OF COLD /850MB TEMPS
AS COLD AS -20 C/ NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS THERE MAY BE SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SKIES
WILL BE OVERCAST MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THURSDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE THURS/EARLY FRI RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
MID/LOW LEVELS FRI/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS RISE AS WARM AS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING FRI/SAT AND LIKELY ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH UP
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IF
IT TRENDS WESTWARD AS THE ECMWF IS HINTING THEN SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
AND CLOUDIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING WITH POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES AS WELL. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUED TO FALL IN SPOTS AND WE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
INCREASING WAA WILL CAUSE LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING BACK INTO MVFR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 2 17 6 20 / 30 0 40 20
INL 0 18 7 19 / 50 20 40 40
BRD 0 16 7 18 / 20 0 40 10
HYR 2 16 3 20 / 70 10 60 30
ASX 7 19 7 23 / 80 30 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ002.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KBIS/KJMS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11Z-13Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY 17Z TUESDAY...THEN INTO KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND INTERMITTENTLY VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT CIGS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AS THE TVF TO FOSSTON AREA HAS
SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A SHARPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO
IN PARTS OF THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
SAT LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME HOLES
HERE AND THERE. MORE CONCENTRATED CLEARING IS STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CANADA. RAP HAS DECENT RH VALUES IN THE 925 TO
850MB LAYER MATCHING UP WITH THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARDS MORNING. BUMPED UP CLOUDS COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED IN THE TEENS WHILE THE FEW
CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE
THERE APPEAR TO BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK WITH THE WEST
STAYING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUDS UP A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AS SAT LOOP AND OBS
SHOWED QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAD GOING IN THE
GRIDS. ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THERE HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SOME FLAKES. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST DEPENDING ON WHAT CLOUD
COVER DOES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO LINGER THE
LONGEST IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...BUT JUST HOW COLD
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET. EXPECT THAT SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR WILL
DROP TO AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...WITH CLOUDY AREAS WARMER.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 20 WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WAA ALOFT. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE TO THE S/SW...SO SNOW FREE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOW/MID
20S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SPREADING
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL
MUCH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME WIND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED...AND TEMPS
COULD PEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WIND WITH ABOUT
35-40KT TO MIX FROM 925 MB...SO THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SOME SNOW COVER. IT WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...A BLUSTERY DAY.
ON THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MINIMAL MIXING...WITH
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS AT THE SFC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A BREEZIER DAY FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THEN TURNS MORE ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING
THRU. THE MAIN EFFECTS LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS WAVE. A SECOND MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH MOVES IN BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH THE SFC PATTERN BY 12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MUCH STRONGER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH. KEPT THE IDEA OF BROADBRUSHED SNOW CHANCES
SUN/MON AND WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
MOST SITES HAVE SEEN CIGS GO TO VFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 4000-7000
FT. HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HAS KEPT VIS DOWN TO 3-5SM
AT TIMES AT KBJI. THINK THIS WILL LAST JUST A LITTLE BIT LONGER
AND THEN ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR. THE HIGHER CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN UNSEASONABLE COLD
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. 17.12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 22.00Z (FRIDAY NIGHT)...DIVERGING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A STRONG EAST-PACIFIC
WAVE AS IT EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS
OF ACCUMULATION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS FULLY IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY ONLY REACHING THE MID TEENS...EXPECT LOWS TO EASILY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND EVEN FAVORED COLD SPOTS
A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. 17.18Z RAP SHOWS 0.5 KM WINDS OVERNIGHT
AROUND 30 KTS WITH A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO THIS
LEVEL...SO EXPECT A BREEZY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BY TUESDAY MORNING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
DRY AND BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 TO 600 HPA FORCING INCREASES
ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF OMEGA
CENTERED ALONG THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...EXPECT A QUICK ONE INCH
OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...KEEPING DAILY TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS IOWA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...17.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THUS LESS ROBUST WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...DEPICTS 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY AS IT DRAGS A SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION
PRECIP ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH MODELS WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIP TO INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT STILL
LOTS OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT THE TAF SITES...BUT WITH RST DROPPING TO
MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN CEILING BRIEFLY BETWEEN 1-4Z...UNCERTAIN IF
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR OR NOT. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUGGEST THE VFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THAT ROUTE. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR BOTH TAF SITES TO
DROP DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 12Z IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN MN. SOME FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY TOO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...ANTICIPATING
CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK MOVES
IN AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA.
REGARDING WEST...WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH SOME IN THE EVENING
WHILE BACKING SOUTHERLY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
946 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES FROM AROUND ZERO
TO TEN BELOW ZERO.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND ISSUES
AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER WI
HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE...CROSSING
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS TO PERSIST
WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH
LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO.
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO
15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR
TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN. COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF
SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE
TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS. STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY
WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS FROM
00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE FALLING
OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING
RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY
AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS
MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART STILL
SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER GARCIA/MIXING
RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS INDICATED WITH OVER 2
G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN
AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T
VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
925-850MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A MORE NORTHWEST ORIENTATION LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A DOMINATE SOUTHERN BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO KSBN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RATHER
STATIONARY BAND AND LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BAND MAY
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW REMAINS 925-850MB FLOW REMAINS
WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL MID MORNING. THUS HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE MID MORNING. FLOW
THEN BACKS SOUTHWEST AND SNOW SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF KSBN. KFWA
CURRENTLY VFR BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN INDIANA HEADING EAST SO MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1053 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS...SKY...AND WX FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ALL
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE LAST OF THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SJS AND JKL TAF
SITES WITH STILL A CHANCE OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED A
TEMPO FOR THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE
CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING OR COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. HIGH CIGS
MAY RETURN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT AFFECT GENERAL AVIATION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY WITH
INCREASED GUSTINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE 4 TO
10 DEGREE RANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THEY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS...SKY...AND WX FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ALL
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHMENT TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE LAST OF THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THESE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SJS AND JKL TAF
SITES WITH STILL A CHANCE OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED A
TEMPO FOR THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE
CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING OR COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. HIGH CIGS
MAY RETURN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT AFFECT GENERAL AVIATION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY WITH
INCREASED GUSTINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE 4 TO
10 DEGREE RANGE LATER TONIGHT AS THEY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE HEAVY LES BAND THAT WAS IMPACTING NE DELTA COUNTY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE E. SINCE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL ALLOW ONLY SCT LES TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF DELTA COUNTY TODAY...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY.
RECEIVED A REPORT OF 8.5 INCHES OF SN NEAR NEWBERRY AT 7 AM. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LES THERE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
SHIFTING BANDS WITH THE BACKING FLOW AS WELL AS GOOD SN/WATER
RATIOS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY TO A WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT CMX/IWD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL IMPROVE
THRU THE DAY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS DEEP MSTR/CYC NW WINDS AND THE
SHSN/BLSN DIMINISH. SINCE THE FLOW WL BACK TO THE SW AT IWD LATER
TODAY...THE CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH THIS
BACKING SFC WIND...SOME HEAVIER SHSN ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT CMX THIS
EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE SW...LIFTING THE LES
BANDS TO THE NE OF THAT SITE AND ALLOWING AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO IWD LATE WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE/SOME LOWER CLDS AND -SN.
AT SAW...WITH A DOWNSLOPING WNW BACKING SW WIND...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT MVFR CIGS WL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES
THRU THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT CMX/IWD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL IMPROVE
THRU THE DAY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS DEEP MSTR/CYC NW WINDS AND THE
SHSN/BLSN DIMINISH. SINCE THE FLOW WL BACK TO THE SW AT IWD LATER
TODAY...THE CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH THIS
BACKING SFC WIND...SOME HEAVIER SHSN ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT CMX THIS
EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE SW...LIFTING THE LES
BANDS TO THE NE OF THAT SITE AND ALLOWING AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO IWD LATE WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE/SOME LOWER CLDS AND -SN.
AT SAW...WITH A DOWNSLOPING WNW BACKING SW WIND...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT MVFR CIGS WL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES
THRU THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND GUSTY NW WINDS CREATING BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TERMINALS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
EXIT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AND
THEN TO MVFR BY TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...NW WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN -SHSN AT TIMES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MOST OF FCST PERIOD WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1006 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS GOING IN FULL-FORCE THIS MRNG SOUTH OF
BUFFALO WITH REPORTS OF 3 FEET IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CITY WHERE
BAND HAS BEEN PARKED ALL NIGHT. OUR CWA HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MUST
SOME FLURRIES FM LK ERIE, MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH JUST FLURRY MENTION THRU
THE AFTN WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING SOME VRY LGT ECHOES EXTNDG
THIS FAR INLAND AFT 18Z.
LOWERED TEMPS SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THEY HV TAKEN AWHILE TO REALLY
RISE. ONLY EXPECTING LWR 20S AT BEST FOR MOST LOCALES THO DEEPER
VLY LOCATIONS IN NEPA AND THE LK PLAIN MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE INTO
THE M20S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PERUSE MODEL DATA TO SEE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LK
SNOWS ACRS EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WHAT
TO DO WITH WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BUT PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIND CHILLS ARE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS...A RATHER RUDE AWAKENING FOR
US IN WHAT IS BY FAR THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD THIS SEASON.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS A LESS- THAN-ONE- PERCENT RETURN FREQUENCY. INDEED QUITE AN
ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST INCLUDING ONLY 10 DEGREES
RIGHT NOW IN OLEAN AND 13 IN WELLSVILLE. LAKE ERIE BAND IS
YIELDING HEAVY SNOW IN WESTERN NY INCLUDING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
TAIL END OF MOISTURE FROM ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WHICH IS NOW WELL
FORMED...WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WSW
FLOW.
JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD WILL BE CAPABLE OF YIELDING A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY MINUS 10 TO
MINUS 20 CELSIUS/ IS CRASHING TO THE LOWEST 8 KFT AGL THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR US IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS. IF NOT FOR THE TEMPERATURES THAT JUST OCCURRED AT
MIDNIGHT REPRESENTING THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY...OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SETTING NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. AND
AS SUCH...LOWS TONIGHT PLUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
DAILY RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF AFD BELOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...EVEN PERHAPS
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WIND CHILLS WILL THUS BE ONLY
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS MAJORITY OF THE DAY...AND EVEN
APPROACHING ZERO FOR TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW TO
MID 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY...AND LOW TO MID TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH GOING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE INTENSE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT AT GETTING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT-VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE PASSES AND TEMPORARILY VEERS THE
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO GETS QUITE
SHEARED AS IT DOES SO...THAT IS...WESTERLY AT 850MB VERSUS STILL
SW OR WSW AT THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE BAND MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO YIELD 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. LACKING THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...YET ALSO NOT ABLE TO RULE IT
OUT...KEEPING THE WATCH IN PLACE /IN COORDINATION WITH NWS ALBANY/
IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. WAA FRI TO SUN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UL RIDGE MOVE THROUGH. SW FLOW OPENS THE GULF TO GIVE
US A MILD SOAKING RAIN STARTING SUNDAY. BELOW STILL APPLIES.
130 PM EST UPDATE...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
THIS RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH... EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SAT TO STAY DRY.
SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ATTM... EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID... AKA... RAIN. THIS SYSTEM MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO BE PRESENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT FAIRLY CHILLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME
FRAME BUT DUE TO WAA... TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 30S...
AND BY MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPS BACK UP IN THE 50S. THIS WOULD BE
A NICE CHANGE TO ALL THE COLD WX WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR. 260 LOW LEVEL FLOW. KEEPS MOST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE CWA. AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN SYR AND RME COULD
GET IN THE LAKE ERIE BAND AND HAVE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NY. ELM ITH AND BGM COULD BRIEFLY
FALL TO MVFR BUT DID NOT INCLUDE. AVP WILL HAVE CLOUDS BUT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THEY WILL STAY VFR.
LATE TONIGHT LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 270 SO NOT EXPECTED ANY
RESTRICTIONS.
WEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS NOW. AROUND 14Z
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS. SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT SO THAT BY 12Z WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
936 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA. IF IT STAYS ON ITS CURRENT
TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
16Z-18Z. WOLF POINT, MONTANA WAS AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY FOR 30
MINUTES...AND REPORTED 1/4SM VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AT ITS PEAK.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW THINK THE CURRENT SPS IS
SUFFICIENT. THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST 06 UTC GFS/NAM ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE RAP13 IS STILL FARTHEST NORTH AND HIGHEST WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE HRRR AND HIRES ARW/NMM ARE A LITTLE MORE
BROAD BRUSHED AND COVER MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS BASED MAINLY ON THE A CONSENSUS OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CONSSHORT...WHICH DOES A REASONABLE JOB OF
HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER POPS TRACKING FROM NW INTO SC ND AND ALSO
HITTING THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE FINE
TUNING AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KJMS THROUGH 13Z THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR CIGS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WESTERN TERMINALS OF
KISN/KDIK...AND BETWEEN 19Z-23Z FROM KMOT/KBIS TO KJMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND VSBYS RANGING BETWEEN 5SM-6SM. INTERMITTENTLY THEY MAY BECOME
LOWER IN ANY LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST 06 UTC GFS/NAM ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE RAP13 IS STILL FARTHEST NORTH AND HIGHEST WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE HRRR AND HIRES ARW/NMM ARE A LITTLE MORE
BROAD BRUSHED AND COVER MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS BASED MAINLY ON THE A CONSENSUS OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CONSSHORT...WHICH DOES A REASONABLE JOB OF
HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER POPS TRACKING FROM NW INTO SC ND AND ALSO
HITTING THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE FINE
TUNING AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MVFR CIGS AT KJMS THROUGH 13Z THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR CIGS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WESTERN TERMINALS OF
KISN/KDIK...AND BETWEEN 19Z-23Z FROM KMOT/KBIS TO KJMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND VSBYS RANGING BETWEEN 5SM-6SM. INTERMITTENTLY THEY MAY BECOME
LOWER IN ANY LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
349 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY. A FAST MOVING STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY AND A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY CONTINUE.
WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR AN INTENSE...WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
HERKIMER AND LEWIS/ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES TRIPLE POINT...TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STEADY-STATE POSITION TO THE BAND WITH A PERSISTENT 250 FLOW
TRAJECTORY. BY EARLY TO MID EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE BAND
TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY NORTH OF ROUTE 28...AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
TO A 260-270 TRAJECTORY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ALY
5KM WRF DEPICTS THE BAND SLOWLY DRIFTING S/SE AND EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING THE OLD FORGE AREA ALONG ROUTE 28 BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING AN
UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND TO IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH. THERE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY...WHICH TENDS TO MITIGATE THE INLAND EXTENT. THUS WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAINLY NORTH OLD FORGE WHERE 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH 4-8
INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF ROUTE 28. BASED ON
MITIGATING FACTORS...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH HAMILTON COUNTY WHERE 2-6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND INLET...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST
TOWARDS INDIAN LAKE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE COLD...DRY AND CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR LOWS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 10
BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF HERKIMER COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY TO START THE
MORNING...WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL MENTION
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
INITIALLY...THEN WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE S/SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IN STORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES "WARMER" DUE TO A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE.
ON THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EAST...ANOTHER
SHOT OF DEEP COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE
FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPS
REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WNW THURSDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND EVEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT...ONCE
AGAIN BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM WITH SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LAST REMNANTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
IMPACT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC WITH A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. H850 TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
-13C TO -15C RANGE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME THERMAL ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
10 DEGREES WITH MILDER MINS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS
RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GFS...AND GEFS. AS THE WAVE LIFTS N/NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE STRONG QG LIFT GENERATED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SOAR BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING FROM THE
U30S TO L50S ON SUNDAY...TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD 50S TO L60S ON
MONDAY...AS THE CYCLONE PASSES WELL WEST OF THE REGION INTO THE SE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY AND HIGH CHC VALUES.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS UPSTREAM...AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
NOVEMBER.
OVERALL...TEMPS COULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO
THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK WARM UP AND PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRISK SW
TO W WINDS OF 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ESPECIALLY AT
KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND THE
WINDS WILL ONLY ABATE SLIGHTLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE LATE TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TOWARDS NOONTIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THURSDAY FOR
FAVORED AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO ICE
FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
101 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST
MOVING STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1108 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FOR
HAMILTON COUNTY. BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY BEGIN AT 5 PM.
THE WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED SW-NE
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES AND SW ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY...WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN A SW 250 DEGREE TRAJECTORY.
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF THE BAND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT S/SE TOWARDS THE WRN DACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AROUND 260-270
TRAJECTORY.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION
TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND
TO REACH WELL INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR
RESEARCH. THIS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE MODERATE AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF OLD FORGE WHERE A FOOT+ IS POSSIBLE...WITH
6-12 INCHES IN AND AROUND OLD FORGE. HOWEVER...IT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN THAT THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE BAND WILL REACH INTO
WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR LESSER AMOUNTS BUT STILL IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID
20S WELL NORTHWEST OF TOWN...LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
THE WIND WAS GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 30 MPH ALREADY IN SOME
SPOTS...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST...20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY...A
WEST WIND GUSTING UP TO 25-40 MPH...JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MOST OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COLD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE BUT NOT ALL THE WAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE LAKE BAND IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT IS MAINLY DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.
DESPITE BEING ABNORMALLY COLD...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY RECORD LOWS
WILL BROKEN.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...COULD ACTUALLY THREATEN COLD MAX
TEMPERATURES RECORDS. IN ALBANY THE COLD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
WEDNESDAY IS 30 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
OF A HIGH OF 31 SO WE STAND A CHANCE OF TYING OR EVEN BREAKING THIS
LONG STANDING RECORD.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE WIND WILL BE NOT BE A STRONG
AS TODAY...WESTERLY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD ON
MAIN FEATURES AND TIMING...SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE DEGREE OF
LAKE/QPF RESPONSE TO THE WED NT/THU SYSTEM.
500HPA CUTOFF MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS INTO THE OTTAWA VLY WITH
ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SFC LOW WED INTO THU. WED NT IT DRAGS A WMFNT NE
ACROSS THE RGN...WITH MAINLY CLOUDS..AND SCT -SHSN WITH SOME LK
ENHANCEMENT N OF FCA INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY. BY THU AFTN ITS CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE 500HPA TROF AXIS...AND STRONG
CAA AGAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. BTWN THE 500HPA TROF AND LK ENHANCEMENT
-SNSH WILL CONT INTO FRI...HWVR EVEN NR THE LAKES STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT FM 240 VECTOR TO 310 FM THU NT TO FRI MORNING...THEN BACK TO
280 BY FRI NT. THIS WILL MINIMIZE CONCENTRATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
ONE PLACE...AND SPREAD THE QPF AROUND. FM ALB S & E IT WILL JUST BE
COLD WITH SCT FLURRIES.
FRI NT AND SAT 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...AND RIDGING BUILDS E FM GRTLKS.
AT SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE E SEABOARD...AS COLD CORE FINALLY LIFTS
NE OUT OF RGN FRI NT. OTRW TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT MODEST RIDGING HAS REPLACED THE SHARP 500 HPA TROF ALONG THE E
SEABOARD...WHILE AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG THE SEABOARD.
INT HE MORNING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER FCA...SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTN WITH GRAD INCR SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SAT
BUT STILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL.
AFT SAT PERIOD EVOLVES INTO MILDER AND UNSETTLED CONDS.
SAT NT 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS NE INTO THE MISS VLY...WHILE FCA
REMAINS IN RETURN FLOW OF SFC HIGH. ECM/HPC AS WELL AS CURRENT
FCST BRING INCR CHC OF -SHRA...AS TEMP CONT TO MODERATE. DURING SUN
THE SHORT WV LIFTS NE INTO THE GRTLKS RGN AND EVOLVES INTO A
MAJOR TROF AS SFC LOW MOVES TO LK SUPERIOR BY MON. THIS SETS UP MUCH
OF THE E SEABOARD FOR WAA AT ALL LEVELS. ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY HAVE
MAINLY DRY CONDS SUN...GIVING WAY TO INCRG CHC PCPN DURING AFT OR
BY EVNG.
MON FCA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR UNDER SW AT ALL LEVELS. MAIN WMFNT IS
WELL N OF FCA. GFS BRINGS CDFNT TO E GRTLKS...BUT BULK OF PCPN
REMAINS W OF FCA...ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH.
OVERALL MILD TEMPS WILL BE A GIVEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AFTER THE FIRST ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON...MOST OF SAT WILL BE
DRY...AFTER THAT THREAT -F -SHRA WILL INCR SUN...AN A GOOD BIT OF
THE MODEL SUITE AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD IT OFF TILL LATE IN
THE DAY.
AFTER SUN AFTN CHC -SHRA/RA CONTINUES INTO TUES WITHOUT MUCH ABILITY
TO TIMING. WILL POPULATE GRIDS WITH HPC...BUT HOLD DON POPS FOR
THE DAY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRISK SW
TO W WINDS OF 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ESPECIALLY AT
KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND THE
WINDS WILL ONLY ABATE SLIGHTLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE LATE TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TOWARDS NOONTIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1108 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST
MOVING STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1108 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FOR
HAMILTON COUNTY. BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY BEGIN AT 5 PM.
THE WELL DEFINED SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED SW-NE
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES AND SW ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY...WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN A SW 250 DEGREE TRAJECTORY.
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF THE BAND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT S/SE TOWARDS THE WRN DACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AROUND 260-270
TRAJECTORY.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION
TO GEORGIAN BAY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL AID IN ALLOWING THE BAND
TO REACH WELL INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BASED ON LOCAL CSTAR
RESEARCH. THIS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE MODERATE AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF OLD FORGE WHERE A FOOT+ IS POSSIBLE...WITH
6-12 INCHES IN AND AROUND OLD FORGE. HOWEVER...IT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN THAT THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE BAND WILL REACH INTO
WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR LESSER AMOUNTS BUT STILL IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER TO MID
20S WELL NORTHWEST OF TOWN...LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
THE WIND WAS GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 30 MPH ALREADY IN SOME
SPOTS...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST...20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY...A
WEST WIND GUSTING UP TO 25-40 MPH...JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MOST OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COLD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE BUT NOT ALL THE WAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE LAKE BAND IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT IS MAINLY DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.
DESPITE BEING ABNORMALLY COLD...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY RECORD LOWS
WILL BROKEN.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...COULD ACTUALLY THREATEN COLD MAX
TEMPERATURES RECORDS. IN ALBANY THE COLD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
WEDNESDAY IS 30 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH
OF A HIGH OF 31 SO WE STAND A CHANCE OF TYING OR EVEN BREAKING THIS
LONG STANDING RECORD.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE WIND WILL BE NOT BE A STRONG
AS TODAY...WESTERLY...THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD ON
MAIN FEATURES AND TIMING...SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE DEGREE OF
LAKE/QPF RESPONSE TO THE WED NT/THU SYSTEM.
500HPA CUTOFF MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS INTO THE OTTAWA VLY WITH
ITS ASSOC CLIPPER SFC LOW WED INTO THU. WED NT IT DRAGS A WMFNT NE
ACROSS THE RGN...WITH MAINLY CLOUDS..AND SCT -SHSN WITH SOME LK
ENHANCEMENT N OF FCA INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY. BY THU AFTN ITS CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE 500HPA TROF AXIS...AND STRONG
CAA AGAIN IMPACTS THE AREA. BTWN THE 500HPA TROF AND LK ENHANCEMENT
-SNSH WILL CONT INTO FRI...HWVR EVEN NR THE LAKES STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT FM 240 VECTOR TO 310 FM THU NT TO FRI MORNING...THEN BACK TO
280 BY FRI NT. THIS WILL MINIMIZE CONCENTRATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
ONE PLACE...AND SPREAD THE QPF AROUND. FM ALB S & E IT WILL JUST BE
COLD WITH SCT FLURRIES.
FRI NT AND SAT 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...AND RIDGING BUILDS E FM GRTLKS.
AT SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE E SEABOARD...AS COLD CORE FINALLY LIFTS
NE OUT OF RGN FRI NT. OTRW TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT MODEST RIDGING HAS REPLACED THE SHARP 500 HPA TROF ALONG THE E
SEABOARD...WHILE AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG THE SEABOARD.
INT HE MORNING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER FCA...SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTN WITH GRAD INCR SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SAT
BUT STILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL.
AFT SAT PERIOD EVOLVES INTO MILDER AND UNSETTLED CONDS.
SAT NT 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS NE INTO THE MISS VLY...WHILE FCA
REMAINS IN RETURN FLOW OF SFC HIGH. ECM/HPC AS WELL AS CURRENT
FCST BRING INCR CHC OF -SHRA...AS TEMP CONT TO MODERATE. DURING SUN
THE SHORT WV LIFTS NE INTO THE GRTLKS RGN AND EVOLVES INTO A
MAJOR TROF AS SFC LOW MOVES TO LK SUPERIOR BY MON. THIS SETS UP MUCH
OF THE E SEABOARD FOR WAA AT ALL LEVELS. ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY HAVE
MAINLY DRY CONDS SUN...GIVING WAY TO INCRG CHC PCPN DURING AFT OR
BY EVNG.
MON FCA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR UNDER SW AT ALL LEVELS. MAIN WMFNT IS
WELL N OF FCA. GFS BRINGS CDFNT TO E GRTLKS...BUT BULK OF PCPN
REMAINS W OF FCA...ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH.
OVERALL MILD TEMPS WILL BE A GIVEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AFTER THE FIRST ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON...MOST OF SAT WILL BE
DRY...AFTER THAT THREAT -F -SHRA WILL INCR SUN...AN A GOOD BIT OF
THE MODEL SUITE AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD IT OFF TILL LATE IN
THE DAY.
AFTER SUN AFTN CHC -SHRA/RA CONTINUES INTO TUES WITHOUT MUCH ABILITY
TO TIMING. WILL POPULATE GRIDS WITH HPC...BUT HOLD DON POPS FOR
THE DAY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY FROM A
WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...GUSTING AS HIGH AS
30-35KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
THE SUSTAINED WIND WILL BETWEEN 15-20KTS BY MIDDAY.
CIGS...AT MAINLY KALB AND KPSF WILL IN THE 5000-6000 FOOT RANGE.
THE WIND WILL SLACKEN A LITTLE TONIGHT BUT NOT ENTIRELY. LOOK FOR A
WSW TO AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO AROUND 20KTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE EVEN IF THERE ARE OCCASIONAL CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA...EXCEPT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON SOME BODIES OF WATER AND ESPECIALLY
SHALLOWER LAKES...PONDS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SHIFT TO JUST THE MICHIGAN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE WIND TURNS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH AROUND 20 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND RANGE FROM MINUS 3 TO 6 TONIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND
ISSUES AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER
WI HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS
FEATURE...CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS
TO PERSIST WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER
HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER
CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND
CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO 15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT
ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN.
COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO
CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS.
STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS
AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS
FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE
FALLING OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST
AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY
BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS
STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY
TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART
STILL SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER
GARCIA/MIXING RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS
INDICATED WITH OVER 2 G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES
BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED
FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF KSBN AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS STILL SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INFRINGING ON THE AIRPORT FROM TIME TO TIME
SO WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS THOUGHTS OF MAINLY MVFR IMPACTS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KSBN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MATCH WITH
KFWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE
AREA TOWARDS 12Z WEDS AND BRING WITH IT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO
BOTH SITES FOR A 4 TO MAYBE 6 HOUR WINDOW. AT THIS POINT THINK
IMPACTS SHOULD HOLD JUST OUTSIDE OF IFR RANGE BUT COULD BE CLOSE.
WILL RUN WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES AND AN UPTICK IN WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1205 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SHIFT TO JUST THE MICHIGAN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE WIND TURNS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH AROUND 20 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND RANGE FROM MINUS 3 TO 6 TONIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHIFT HEAVIEST BANDS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SFC FLOW.
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING VICINITY OF
MICHIGAN CITY. POINTS EAST OF HERE WERE SEEING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TOLL ROAD AND DOWN TO ROUGHLY
US 24 IN INDIANA SEEING FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALL
COURTESY OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO WATCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AGAIN FOR A
PERIOD. GIVEN CLEANUP STILL UNDERWAY AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE WARNING ALONG FOR LA PORTE...ST JOE AND
ELKHART COUNTIES IN INDIANA FOR THE TIME BEING. ADDED MENTION OF
LGT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...BIT MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
BUSY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT. AS FEARED AND MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE BANDS DID MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE...A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THESE WESTERLY
FLOW EVENTS. RUC13 AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWED A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE 925-850MB WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE THERMAL INDUCED
CONVERGENCE WHICH ALLOWED SOUTHERN MOST BAND TO BECOME STRONGER.
THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED NON STOP SINCE ABOUT 9 PM LAST NIGHT. HI
RES GUIDANCE LOCKED ONTO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT
BACKING THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES.
THIS GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH REPORTS THROUGH 1 AM OF BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW PROMPTED THE OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALSO LEADING TO NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS AND ISSUES
AND EXPECT MORE PROBLEMS AS MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
THE HIRES ARW EAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SOUTHERN BAND AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT WITH A BLEND OF RUC AND LOCAL WRF TO TWEAK
SNOW FORECASTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER WI
HEADING SOUTH AND MODELS SEEM LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE...CROSSING
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BANDS TO PERSIST
WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH MID MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
RATES OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR. GREATEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL CASS COUNTY WITH
LAST REPORTS OF 10 INCHES AROUND CASSOPOLIS SEVERAL HOURS AGO.
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN CASSOPOLIS AREA TO BE CLOSER TO
15 TO 18 INCHES BY THE TIME EVENT ENDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
VARY WITH AMOUNTS AS USUAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 4 TO 8 LIKELY NEAR
TOLL ROAD AND 8 TO 12 IN MICHIGAN. COUNTING ON COMBINATION OF
SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL TIMING TO CREATE MORE OF A CELLULAR NATURE
TO BANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AID IN REDUCING INTENSITY A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BACKS. STRONG WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 TODAY
WILL CREATE HAVOC ON ROADS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
STRONGER BANDS.
BASED ON 00Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ARW AND NAM DID INCREASE POPS FROM
00-06Z TONIGHT OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS WITH SATURATED BUT SHRINKING DGZ. ACCUMS SHOULD BE FALLING
OFF BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS.
REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY SHATTERING
RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ALREADY BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY
AT KFWA DESPITE WIND. WIND CHILLS STILL FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW THIS
MORNING. TONIGHT...LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ANOTHER BOUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12KM NAM PER 285K ISENTROPIC CHART STILL
SUPPORTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER GARCIA/MIXING
RATIO METHOD. CONCERN FOR INCOMPLETE SATURATION OF THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IS INDICATED WITH OVER 2
G/KG OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAMPED UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA. SFC/700 MB DELTA T VALUES BECOME SUBSTANTIAL AGAIN
AROUND 30C. EVEN WITH A LIMITED FETCH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS DELTA T
VALUES INCREASE AND WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATED LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
925-850MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A MORE NORTHWEST ORIENTATION LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A DOMINATE SOUTHERN BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO KSBN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RATHER
STATIONARY BAND AND LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BAND MAY
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW REMAINS 925-850MB FLOW REMAINS
WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL MID MORNING. THUS HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE MID MORNING. FLOW
THEN BACKS SOUTHWEST AND SNOW SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF KSBN. KFWA
CURRENTLY VFR BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS IN
NORTHERN INDIANA HEADING EAST SO MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ080.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
210 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
ONLY SOME CU AND STRATOCU LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES HAVE ENDED. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED
INTO THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER. HOURLY SKY...TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS...SKY...AND WX FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ALL
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. CAA
CONTINUES ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CREATING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES. THIS ADVECTION HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ELSEWHERE WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS
IN THE LOWER 20S. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BUT THEY ARE EXHIBITING A DIMINISHINGS TREND. EVEN
SO...THEY ARE STILL ENOUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND A COATING OF SNOW IN A
FEW PLACES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST
DAWN. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THESE
CONCERNS AS WELL AS FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DESCENT OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ITS
CORE ENERGY EXITING KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN PULLS OUT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RELAXING THE LOW HEIGHTS AT BIT OVER
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH A RETURN OF ENERGY TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH
A LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR EARLY ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AIR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH
FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE
FORECASTED FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MINIMUM HIGHS WITH JKL NEVER RECORDING A DAY IN NOVEMBER WHERE
TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH AT LEAST 30 DEGREES WHILE LONDON HAS NOT
HAD A DAY ONLY IN THE 20S UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH. THE CHILL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS LIKELY BEARING THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THESE ALSO WILL BE AT OR BELOW RECORD VALUES FOR MANY
SPOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY PCPN THAT COULD MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM THIS WILL FALL AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PCPN FREE.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR THE STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO MAV MOS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
HIGHER THAN THEM ALL TODAY...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY EARLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AT 0Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...AND MOVING SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION AS
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN KY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CHOOSES TO
REMAIN DRY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING IT TO FAR EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SUCH A POTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN...COLD ARCTIC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FIRST IN THE WAY OF A WARM FRONT...AND
THEN AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY.
GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT ANY
RAIN TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH...TURNING INTO A 975MB CLOSED LOW BY 0Z MONDAY. IN THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KY...AS
WILL INCREASING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS WAS NOTED BY
LOUISVILLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT PARAMETERS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUCH AS A
GOOD VEERING WIND PROFILE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...MUCAPE
VALUES...ETC... THIS LED TO THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ACROSS THEIR CWA. HERE IN EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z...BUT IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM ALOFT AND CUTS OFF THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING IT PAST THE CAP...OR
PERHAPS FIRING UP IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN CAP BREAKING AND
DRY AIR FILTERING IN. IT IS ALSO ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN LMK/S AREA COULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN CWA. PLUS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR ANY LIKELY POPS AS
WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY PULL NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER DEEP TONGUE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
SOME CU AND STRATOCU IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 23Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 6Z TO 9Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN BETWEEN 22Z AND 0Z...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO 10KT OR MORE
AFTER 14Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
448 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.
SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.
TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.
ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED ONCE AGAIN
IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 24 HOUR /12IN OR
MORE/ WARNING CRITERIA IF BANDED PRECIP STAYS OVER E ALGER AND N
PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY. WILL NOT HOIST ANY NEW HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING ADVISORIES OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LES GOING...AS NOTED ABOVE...BEHIND THE
EXITING SFC LOW OVER N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS THROUGH
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH
EXITS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
AT THAT POINT WE WILL BRIEFLY SAY GOODBYE TO OUR COLD WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG WAA WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W /FROM A SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER ONE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE S PLAINS/. LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
30S SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL LOW OVER MANITOBA
WILL SKIRT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC
RIDGE ERODING ACROSS UPPER MI.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE /OR MORE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN IF THE HIGHER QPF LIKE THAT FROM THE 18/12Z
ECMWF PAN OUT. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST...SO WILL ONLY ADD THE MENTION
FOR NOW AND WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PRECIP /FREEZING DRIZZLE/.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF
THE S STREAM LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ND/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THE S LOW TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE MI/ILLINOIS BY 00Z
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS E UPPER MI/W LAKE HURON BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. HOW MUCH OF THAT FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN/OVER
OUR SNOW PACK IS IN QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.
SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.
TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.
ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE HEAVY LES BAND THAT WAS IMPACTING NE DELTA COUNTY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE E. SINCE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL ALLOW ONLY SCT LES TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF DELTA COUNTY TODAY...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY.
RECEIVED A REPORT OF 8.5 INCHES OF SN NEAR NEWBERRY AT 7 AM. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LES THERE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
SHIFTING BANDS WITH THE BACKING FLOW AS WELL AS GOOD SN/WATER
RATIOS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY TO A WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE HEAVY LES BAND THAT WAS IMPACTING NE DELTA COUNTY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE E. SINCE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL ALLOW ONLY SCT LES TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF DELTA COUNTY TODAY...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY.
RECEIVED A REPORT OF 8.5 INCHES OF SN NEAR NEWBERRY AT 7 AM. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LES THERE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
SHIFTING BANDS WITH THE BACKING FLOW AS WELL AS GOOD SN/WATER
RATIOS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY TO A WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.
TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.
AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
WILL SHIFT N WITH TIME. AT KIWD...-SHSN SHOULD END BY 20Z WITH MVFR
CIGS THEN SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE AFTN. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY AT TIMES...AND THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR OR EVEN VFR. A PREVAILING PERIOD OF IFR SHOULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A LAST HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS N.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL FINALLY BE BACKED ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW AT
KCMX WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AT KSAW...SOME PERIOD OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN AT KCMX/KSAW WED MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE
YUKON AND ALASKA. FURTHER EAST...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY...SOUTH TO LAKE SUPERIOR. A TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...A NICE
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN AND NRN ALBERTA. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. MORE ABOUT THAT BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WERE MAINLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO ERICSON. TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 AM CST RANGED FROM -8 AT VALENTINE...TO 14 AT ONEILL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY WINDS /10 TO 20 KTS/ BEHIND TROUGH/WARM
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IML HAS ALREADY JUMPED TO 48 DEGREES WITH
LOWER 50S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. RUC AND HRRR HAVE JUMPED ON THE
WARMER TEMPS AND BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR FAR SW. STILL
CHILLY ACROSS THE SNOWPACK OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. FORECAST
UPDATE HAS A CONSERVATIVE CATEGORY OR TWO TREND UP FOLLOWING A
BLEND OF THE RUC/HRRR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOR TODAY SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. WARMER H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM
-3 IN THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 5C IN THE SOUTHWEST. INTERPOLATING
THESE 00Z TEMPS TO THE 18Z H85 TEMPS...YIELDS AROUND 2 TO 3C FOR
NORTH PLATTE AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING...THIS YIELDS THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE OF
41 THIS AFTERNOON. THE MET IS MUCH COOLER AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A
SNOW COVER BIAS ACROSS THE AREA AND WAS DISREGARDED FOR TDYS FCST.
OTHER ASPECTS WHICH MAY HOLD DOWN HIGHS TODAY ARE THE COLD
START...IE STARTING TEMPS AROUND ZERO...AND THE FROZEN GROUND
CONDS...EVEN IN AREAS WHICH ARE NOT SNOW COVERED. IN
ADDITION...MIXING WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TDY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...UTILIZED GFS H85 TEMPS AT 21Z FOR FORECAST HIGHS TDY. THIS
YIELDED HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 47 FOR IMPERIAL. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO...FORCING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND BREEZY CONDS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND THE FROPA IN THE SURFACE
TO H850 LAYER WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER IS WEAK AT BEST...WITH
THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER. EVEN
WITH LIMITED LIFT...HARD TO RULE OUT FLURRIES GIVEN THE STRONG CAA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THAT THREAT WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...AND THEN WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM THE
ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA THIS PAST WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
VERY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN STILL IN PLACE...THEN AS
THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH HAS
BEEN DRIVING TROUGH ALSO BEGINS TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS TO
CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH THIS OCCURRING AND ARE QUITE
SIMILAR IN FORECASTING SPLIT FLOW TAKING SHAPE...AND WITH THE
GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH BOTH THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN SOME OF THE DETAILS TO KEEP SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN TAKING
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX. EVEN WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MIXED LAYER UP TO 825-850MB. WINDS
ALOFT /AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/ STAY HIGHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES STILL AT 20-25KTS AT PEAK HEATING. DO HAVE
THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO
CONTINUE SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE INVERSION
BEGINS TO SET UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION...TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAT WILL
BE SEEN TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE WARMER WHERE 850MB TEMPS LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND 0C. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET.
STRONG SUPER-ADIABATIC MIXING TO 850MB WOULD PUT HIGHS UP AROUND 50
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST DON/T
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IF MIXING WILL BE UP TO THAT LEVEL AND WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 40S IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO MUCH ABOVE THAT AT THIS TIME. IN THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...MOST
LIKELY STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
A STREAM OF CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. ANOTHER THING TO LOOK AT FOR
WEDNESDAY IS POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT
THE LIFT IN THE LAYER IS VERY LIGHT OR EVEN NEGLIGIBLE. THE GEM IS
THE MODEL THE MOST EXCITED ABOUT SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH THE NAM BEING
THE ONLY OTHER MODEL TO EVEN DEVELOP SOME QPF. WENT THE CONSERVATIVE
ROUTE AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE ISN/T ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO
ADD SNOW IN RIGHT NOW.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT IS ONGOING.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AS
THE EASTERN CONUS LARGEWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES A BIT FURTHER EAST
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THIS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
BRING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS ISN/T AS
COLD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY BRINGING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A SLOW PROGRESSION
THOUGH SO REALLY DON/T START SEEING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD KEEP THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS AGAIN
FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 40S. EVEN IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT DOES
START TO MOVE IN...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INHIBIT GOOD
MIXING FROM OCCURRING SO WANTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE AND IF THE TREND BEGINS TO BE WARMER LATER SHIFTS CAN MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND CATCHES UP ON SATURDAY
OVER TEXAS. IT THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ITS TRACK KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND GENERALLY ENTIRELY OUT OF
NEBRASKA. ALSO...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SLOWDOWN HAS ALLOWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE BACKED OFF FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BASICALLY ROBS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF
MOISTURE SO THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA.
BOTH SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PHASE TOGETHER ON MONDAY WITH MOISTURE BEING
ABLE TO BE PULLED FAR ENOUGH WEST AROUND THE LOW TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
WHICH OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO RIDGING OVER THE WEST
AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO LOOKING AT A SLIGHT WARM-UP /TO
AROUND NORMAL IN SOME PLACES/ FOR THE WEEKEND BUT COLDER AIR SHOULD
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
VFR AFTERNOON WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. TONIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LOW /MVFR/ CIGS. THE LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO KVTN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS
TOWARDS SUNRISE. MORNING FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND DOES
INCREASE THE CEILING HEIGHT FOR KVTN. MEANWHILE THE FRONT REACHES
KLBF IN THE MORNING HOURS. DID INTRODUCE A BKN025 CIG INTO THE
TAF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HEIGHT OF THE CIG...WHICH
COULD BE IN THE LOWER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
120 PM UPDATE...
LK SNOWS WL CONTINUE PUMMEL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA TONIGHT. LK
SNOWS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HRS IN THE SAME LOCALES. SFC TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS LK HURON AND ACRS NRN LOWER MI WL SWING THRU
AFT MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT SNOWBAND SOUTH INTO EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY.
HWVR, HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND GETS IS THE QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OF HANDLING THE CURRENT SNOWBANDS
QUITE WELL, ENUF TO LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HANDLING OF SNOW
FCST FOR THE OVRNGT. HIRES NMM, ARW, RUC AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 12Z NAM SHOW INTENSE PORTION OF BAND DROPPING INTO EXTRM
NERN ONEIDA CNTY TONIGHT AFT 05Z. THIS BAND LOOKS TO HOLD PRETTY
STEADY-STATE THRU 12Z, POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT WAFFLE TO THE SOUTH
DRG THE OVRNGT.
THUS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENUF TO RAISE A LK EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NRN
ONEIDA CNTY FM 03Z TO 14Z WED WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMS IN A 12-HR PD
RANGING FM 4-7 INCHES. IF THIS BAND OVERPERFORMS THAN CUD EASILY SEE
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS FOR THE BOONVILLE AND WOODGATE AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY UNDER CLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL WV CURRENTLY DROPPING THRU NRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL APPCH
CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WL SERVE TO SHIFT BACK SWRLY FLOW
TWD THE SOUTH AND ALLOW LK SNOWS TO BCM DISRUPTED AND SHIFT NORTH BY
AFTN. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE MRNG HRS. WL
LKLY JUST SEE SLGT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES SKIRTING
THRU CNTRL NY AS WV SHEARS OUT INTO CANADA.
SYSTEM WL GIVE WRN SXNS OF CWA JUST A GLANCING BLOW TOMORROW NGT
WITH JUST MINOR ACCUMS OF SNOW. AS THE TROF LIFTS NORTH AND LOW-LVL
FLOW VEERS ARND TO THE SW AGAIN EXPECT LK SNOWS TO GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN THUR MRNG THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
LK SNOWS WL CONTINUE PUMMEL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA TONIGHT. LK
SNOWS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HRS IN THE SAME LOCALES. SFC TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS LK HURON AND ACRS NRN LOWER MI WL SWING THRU
AFT MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT SNOWBAND SOUTH INTO EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY.
HWVR, HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND GETS IS THE QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OF HANDLING THE CURRENT SNOWBANDS
QUITE WELL, ENUF TO LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HANDLING OF SNOW
FCST FOR THE OVRNGT. HIRES NMM, ARW, RUC AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 12Z NAM SHOW INTENSE PORTION OF BAND DROPPING INTO EXTRM
NERN ONEIDA CNTY TONIGHT AFT 05Z. THIS BAND LOOKS TO HOLD PRETTY
STEADY-STATE THRU 12Z, POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT WAFFLE TO THE SOUTH
DRG THE OVRNGT.
THUS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENUF TO RAISE A LK EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NRN
ONEIDA CNTY FM 03Z TO 14Z WED WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMS IN A 12-HR PD
RANGING FM 4-7 INCHES. IF THIS BAND OVERPERFORMS THAN CUD EASILY SEE
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS FOR THE BOONVILLE AND WOODGATE AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY UNDER CLR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
121 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS GOING IN FULL-FORCE THIS MRNG SOUTH OF
BUFFALO WITH REPORTS OF 3 FEET IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CITY WHERE
BAND HAS BEEN PARKED ALL NIGHT. OUR CWA HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MUST
SOME FLURRIES FM LK ERIE, MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH JUST FLURRY MENTION THRU
THE AFTN WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING SOME VRY LGT ECHOES EXTNDG
THIS FAR INLAND AFT 18Z.
LOWERED TEMPS SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THEY HV TAKEN AWHILE TO REALLY
RISE. ONLY EXPECTING LWR 20S AT BEST FOR MOST LOCALES THO DEEPER
VLY LOCATIONS IN NEPA AND THE LK PLAIN MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE INTO
THE M20S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PERUSE MODEL DATA TO SEE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LK
SNOWS ACRS EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WHAT
TO DO WITH WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BUT PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIND CHILLS ARE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS...A RATHER RUDE AWAKENING FOR
US IN WHAT IS BY FAR THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD THIS SEASON.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS A LESS- THAN-ONE- PERCENT RETURN FREQUENCY. INDEED QUITE AN
ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST INCLUDING ONLY 10 DEGREES
RIGHT NOW IN OLEAN AND 13 IN WELLSVILLE. LAKE ERIE BAND IS
YIELDING HEAVY SNOW IN WESTERN NY INCLUDING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
TAIL END OF MOISTURE FROM ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WHICH IS NOW WELL
FORMED...WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WSW
FLOW.
JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD WILL BE CAPABLE OF YIELDING A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY MINUS 10 TO
MINUS 20 CELSIUS/ IS CRASHING TO THE LOWEST 8 KFT AGL THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR US IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS. IF NOT FOR THE TEMPERATURES THAT JUST OCCURRED AT
MIDNIGHT REPRESENTING THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY...OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SETTING NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. AND
AS SUCH...LOWS TONIGHT PLUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
DAILY RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF AFD BELOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...EVEN PERHAPS
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WIND CHILLS WILL THUS BE ONLY
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS MAJORITY OF THE DAY...AND EVEN
APPROACHING ZERO FOR TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW TO
MID 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY...AND LOW TO MID TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH GOING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE INTENSE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT AT GETTING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT-VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE PASSES AND TEMPORARILY VEERS THE
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO GETS QUITE
SHEARED AS IT DOES SO...THAT IS...WESTERLY AT 850MB VERSUS STILL
SW OR WSW AT THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE BAND MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO YIELD 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. LACKING THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...YET ALSO NOT ABLE TO RULE IT
OUT...KEEPING THE WATCH IN PLACE /IN COORDINATION WITH NWS ALBANY/
IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL START TO SLOWLY END
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO NOT IMPACT THE CWA. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS WILL
ALLOW ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION JUST
BRIEFLY BUT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO
REMAIN DRY.
GUIDANCE IS ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THAT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR CWA
IS THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST FEATURE THAT MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORTLY AFTER AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED OUR REGION. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...COLD YET
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS GOING IN FULL-FORCE THIS MRNG SOUTH OF
BUFFALO WITH REPORTS OF 3 FEET IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CITY WHERE
BAND HAS BEEN PARKED ALL NIGHT. OUR CWA HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MUST
SOME FLURRIES FM LK ERIE, MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH JUST FLURRY MENTION THRU
THE AFTN WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING SOME VRY LGT ECHOES EXTNDG
THIS FAR INLAND AFT 18Z.
LOWERED TEMPS SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THEY HV TAKEN AWHILE TO REALLY
RISE. ONLY EXPECTING LWR 20S AT BEST FOR MOST LOCALES THO DEEPER
VLY LOCATIONS IN NEPA AND THE LK PLAIN MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE INTO
THE M20S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PERUSE MODEL DATA TO SEE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LK
SNOWS ACRS EXTREME NRN ONEIDA CNTY AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WHAT
TO DO WITH WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BUT PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIND CHILLS ARE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS...A RATHER RUDE AWAKENING FOR
US IN WHAT IS BY FAR THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD THIS SEASON.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
MEANS A LESS- THAN-ONE- PERCENT RETURN FREQUENCY. INDEED QUITE AN
ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST INCLUDING ONLY 10 DEGREES
RIGHT NOW IN OLEAN AND 13 IN WELLSVILLE. LAKE ERIE BAND IS
YIELDING HEAVY SNOW IN WESTERN NY INCLUDING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
TAIL END OF MOISTURE FROM ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WHICH IS NOW WELL
FORMED...WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WSW
FLOW.
JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD WILL BE CAPABLE OF YIELDING A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY MINUS 10 TO
MINUS 20 CELSIUS/ IS CRASHING TO THE LOWEST 8 KFT AGL THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR US IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS. IF NOT FOR THE TEMPERATURES THAT JUST OCCURRED AT
MIDNIGHT REPRESENTING THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY...OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SETTING NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. AND
AS SUCH...LOWS TONIGHT PLUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
DAILY RECORDS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF AFD BELOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...EVEN PERHAPS
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WIND CHILLS WILL THUS BE ONLY
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS MAJORITY OF THE DAY...AND EVEN
APPROACHING ZERO FOR TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW TO
MID 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY...AND LOW TO MID TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH GOING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE INTENSE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT AT GETTING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT-VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE PASSES AND TEMPORARILY VEERS THE
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO GETS QUITE
SHEARED AS IT DOES SO...THAT IS...WESTERLY AT 850MB VERSUS STILL
SW OR WSW AT THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE BAND MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO YIELD 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. LACKING THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...YET ALSO NOT ABLE TO RULE IT
OUT...KEEPING THE WATCH IN PLACE /IN COORDINATION WITH NWS ALBANY/
IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. STILL
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...CLOSE TO
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA DUE TO HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THIS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUB-510 DECAMETER THICKNESS AIR MASS TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ALSO COME BACK...MAINLY IN OUR NEW YORK ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-
FINGER LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE /ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN-YATES
COUNTIES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. WAA FRI TO SUN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UL RIDGE MOVE THROUGH. SW FLOW OPENS THE GULF TO GIVE
US A MILD SOAKING RAIN STARTING SUNDAY. BELOW STILL APPLIES.
130 PM EST UPDATE...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
THIS RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH... EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SAT TO STAY DRY.
SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ATTM... EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID... AKA... RAIN. THIS SYSTEM MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO BE PRESENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT FAIRLY CHILLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME
FRAME BUT DUE TO WAA... TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 30S...
AND BY MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPS BACK UP IN THE 50S. THIS WOULD BE
A NICE CHANGE TO ALL THE COLD WX WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AND FLOW FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 14Z.
AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE FLUCTUATES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AND IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...ESP RME AND SYR.
SAT AND ...VFR.
SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
345 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY RECORD COLD NOT IN JEOPARDY SINCE AT MIDNIGHT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW 11/19 FORECAST WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
AT AVOCA (SCRANTON/WB) RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1924
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 28 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 24.5 IN 1936
AT BINGHAMTON RECORD DAILY LOW 13 IN 1986
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 23 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 20.5 IN 1951
AT SYRACUSE RECORD DAILY LOW 14 IN 1962
LOWEST HIGH TEMP 27 IN 1951 AND LOWEST AVERAGE TEMP 21.5 IN 1986
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
BOWMAN RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE...THE KMBX RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME ECHOES MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NOT REAL SURE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH. GIVEN
THE CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS...INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP THE SPS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
NOW. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
OTHER UPDATES REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA. IF IT STAYS ON ITS CURRENT
TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
16Z-18Z. WOLF POINT, MONTANA WAS AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY FOR 30
MINUTES...AND REPORTED 1/4SM VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AT ITS PEAK.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW THINK THE CURRENT SPS IS
SUFFICIENT. THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
LATEST 06 UTC GFS/NAM ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE RAP13 IS STILL FARTHEST NORTH AND HIGHEST WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE HRRR AND HIRES ARW/NMM ARE A LITTLE MORE
BROAD BRUSHED AND COVER MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS BASED MAINLY ON THE A CONSENSUS OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CONSSHORT...WHICH DOES A REASONABLE JOB OF
HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER POPS TRACKING FROM NW INTO SC ND AND ALSO
HITTING THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE FINE
TUNING AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE FARTHER EAST BUT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BY 11Z AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 12Z-13Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH THE RAP13 FARTHEST
NORTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH. THE REST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TENTH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WIND GUSTS PER HRRR 80M WINDS SUGGESTS 30-35KT FOR WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A 4MB 3HR
PRESSURE BUBBLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER 00Z AS IT SLIDES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED...CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES MEETING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS MARGINAL. WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/LOCATION/DURATION AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE FELT THAT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT BETTER SUITS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE DAYSHIFT CAN
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON TUESDAY WE DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE FINALLY SEE OUR PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS
TIME LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
GETS WRUNG OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OUR WARM SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS THE GFS/GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE THEN DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST (KDIK) EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON (18Z-20Z). DO NOT THINK PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
AN ISSUE FOR KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS SO WILL KEEP TEMPO IFR GROUPS OUT
OF THOSE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1214 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL COVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD STAY CONFINED WITHIN ABOUT 10
MILES OF OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COLD AT MIDDAY FOR MID NOVEMBER...TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO
15F NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST...WITH WIND CHILLS STILL
RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO NORTH TO 10 TO 15F.
SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND REMAINS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
PARALLEL TO LAKE ERIE SHORE...TARGETING IMMEDIATE AREAS ESE OF
BUFFALO. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE HIRES ARW
INDICATE A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE BAND THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES WILL BE -3 TO -4 SD...WITH A BROAD AREA OF
-18C AIR RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PENN MTNS PER THE LATEST
SREF. SCATTERED FLURRIES...AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDING AT
TIMES INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES NEAR AND TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO AROUND 30F IN THE FAR SE. THESE TEMPS WILL
BE AND INCREDIBLE 20 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL AND WILL RIVAL PREVIOUS
MINI MAX TEMPS FOR NOV 18TH WHICH ARE 30F AT KMDT AND 28F AT KIPT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH VERTICAL MIXING THROUGH SEVERAL KFT AGL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND
CHILLS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT APPARENT
TEMPS OF 5-10 BLW ZERO SEEM LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W
MTNS...PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ALL 00Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES WRF NMM AND 18/07Z HRRR
HINT AT THE MEAN LLVL VEERING JUST A BIT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PUSH A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS INLAND
ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMS COULD APPROACH LES
ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE FAR NW PART
OF WARREN CTY NEAR COLUMBUS AND BEAR LAKE. HOWEVER...THE EXTREME
LAND/TEMP DIFF WILL LIKELY PROVE THE MODELS WRONG AND MAKE IT
QUITE DIFFICULT TO TUG THE BACK AWAY FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE WHERE IT WILL STAY UNTIL LIFTING STEADILY NORTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE TEMPORARY...ALBEIT DEEPENING SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK WARM FRONT.
LOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLES DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND LOW-MID TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND WON`T SLACKEN MUCH AT ALL TONIGHT...AND
WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD - RANGING FORM THE THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10F BELOW ZERO
ACRS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS /BARELY ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF -15F/.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL PUSH A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION /AT THE
NOSE OF A PLUS 2-3 ST DEVIATION SWRLY LLJ/. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH PWATS BARELY EDGING ABOVE 7MM. PAINTED IN AN AREA OF
LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS FOR WED AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...EXPECT
THICKENING ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND
PERHAPS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FAR SE
AS A KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE.
HIGHS WED WILL REBOUND BY ABOUT 5F FROM THE BITTER...EARLY SEASON
COLD OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEE
OUTBREAK/ PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THU INTO FRIDAY.
A BETTER CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW /AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES ACROSS WARREN...MCKEAN AND ELK COUNTIES/ WILL DEVELOP
LATE THUR/THU NIGHT AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOMES WEST TO WNW AT
TIMES...WITH -14 TO -16C OR COLDER BLOWING ACROSS A LONG LENGTH OF
LAKE ERIE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS FLURRIES WILL BE
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BRISK W/SW FLOW BRINGING SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WELL BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ONLY LOCAL VARIATIONS.
A VERY INTENSE SNOWBAND ALIGNED NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE ALIGNED WITH LL FLOW BRINGING SIG IMPACTS AROUND THE BUFFALO
NY AREA...BUT IMPACTS TO NW PA ARE MINIMAL. LARGE-SCALE UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GENERALLY KEEP MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KBFD-KFIG-KJST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THESE LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY ENCROACH ON KUNV-KAOO THIS MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY WITH
ASSISTANCE FROM DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW.
WINDS VEER TO NEARLY WESTERLY THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY PUSH SOME
SNOW BANDS INTO THE NW MTNS IN VICINITY OF KBFD...AND WILL
REINFORCE MVFR CIGS THERE. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD BRING KJST TO VFR...THOUGH POSS THAT
MVFR MAY PERSIST AS FLOW REMAINS PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGES AND
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A THIN STRATOCU DECK.
ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.
THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.
FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.
SAT...VFR TO MVFR CIGS...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR