Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/13/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

939 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBLY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST CLOUD TOPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLING OVER LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS ARE
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN REFLECTIVITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. PER KBUF 00Z
SOUNDING...INVERSION LEVEL WAS NEAR H800 AS H850 TEMPS WERE AT -7C.
LAKE TEMPS WERE NEAR +10C SO DELTA T/S ARE MORE THAN SATISFIED FOR
LAKE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A BIT OF SHEAR AT THE PRESENT
TIME PER THE SOUNDING BUT THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS SLOW COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. PER THE
CSTAR INLAND LAKE EFFECT EXTENT...BANDS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH
REFLECTIVITY ECHOES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS HANDLED QUITE
WELL IN THE CURRENT GRIDS AND LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY WITH MOST AREAS BELOW FREEZING BY 6
AM.

PREV DISC...COLDER AIR HAS BEGUN TO COME INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE HELD OFF
AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTHWEST AS WE WAIT ON MORE
ENERGY TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT WILL BE
MUCH COLDER TONIGHT THAN LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOWS MAINLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S. HAVE INTRODUCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
START TO GET A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ERIE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE
WILL SOME DISRUPTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL SWING THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THIS
ENERGY WILL INDUCE A LOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED (CHANCE POPS) ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...BY 12Z/SATURDAY THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO TO -10 TO -13 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS WE
HEAD INTO WEEKEND. EACH DAY WILL BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SATURDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THEN AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND COLDER IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE/ENERGY APPROACHING FORM THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST CONUS
STATS AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON THE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PRECIP TYPE AND QPF
AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SO WILL
MENTION 50-60 POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS SUCH
AS THE ECMWF INDICATE GREATER QPF BUT ALSO MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
RESULTING IN RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE GFS INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LESS QPF BUT COLDER
TEMPS RESULTING MORE WINTRY PRECIP. WILL KEEP ANY EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS..BUT THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNALS TO
MENTION SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...COLDER AIR MOVING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS FAVORED AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS SCT-BKN STRATUS DECK WAS
APPROACHING KGFL. PER UPSTREAM OBS...SEEMS THIS DECK IS JUST ABOVE
MVFR THRESHOLDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THIS
NOTION IN THE FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
...CLR-MOCLR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT THAT WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THRESHOLDS.

CIGS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THRU THURSDAY AS SECONDARY PUSH OF
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT
/VIRGA/ UP TO 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
AT THE THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

245 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP NICELY FOR A COLDER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LARGE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN...
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WE SEE A NEGATIVE PHASE ONGOING WITH THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. BOTH A POSITIVE PNA INDEX AND NEGATIVE NAO PHASE
INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAKS TO REACH THE
CONUS...AND THIS IS HAPPENING NOW.

IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A COLD AND
DEEP TROUGH IS EVOLVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES...AND THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST WILL EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CERTAINLY WILL NOT
SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS...BUT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN
FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

A LARGE SPIN/CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CAN BE SEEN
PULLING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING A WEAK AREA OF
UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE CONTROL.

THEREFORE...UNTIL LATER THURSDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
ITS ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AT OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS SEEING NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE QUICKLY BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...11/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROP. THE ONLY MOISTURE IS IN THE
VERY HIGHEST LEVELS ABOVE 300MB ASSOCIATED WITH JET ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FEW PASSING PATCHES OF TRANSPARENT CIRRUS MAY
INVADE THE SKY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
SPOTS. A COMBINATION OF THE GRADIENT WIND FORM THE N/NW AND
LOCALIZED SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING IS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE. THESE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NO CHANCE
OF RAIN.

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
DRYNESS OF THE OVERLYING ATMOSPHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH OF
I-4...AND IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 FURTHER SOUTH.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT MID NOVEMBER DAY SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS A WEAK
IMPULSE/SHORTWAVE RIDES THE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO
WORRIES WITH THIS IMPULSE. EVEN WITH ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TO DRY TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 0%. THE ONLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WE SHOULD SEE WOULD BE PERIODS OF CIRRUS TO
DIM THE SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE AND CONTINUED
FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WOULD EXPECT
THE MOST CIRRUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN HERE
MOST OF THE TIME...THE SUN SHOULD STILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH IT. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70S NORTH...TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND LOWER 80S INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR TUESDAY EVERYBODY! GET OUT
AND ENJOY THE WEATHER IF YOU CAN.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SYNOPTIC
WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS NOTED IN MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS BETWEEN H85 AND H5...SO AS A RESULT WE EXPECT A RAIN FREE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD...THANKS TO RIGHT REAR QUAD FORCING FROM A 110+ KNOT UPPER
JET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE 20%
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD
30-40% CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER CONDITIONS...
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW PATCHES OF
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR KLAL...AND KPGD...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT OR EXTENDED RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY MORNING
FOR DISSIPATES QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.MARINE...
BRIEF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS GUSTY N/NW WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW 15
KTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING ELEVATED NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. NO MAJOR MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND
BE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE HOURS OF SUB 35
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...AND ERC VALUES ARE BELOW 27. THEREFORE...NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MAKES A RAIN
FREE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY
FOG PRONE AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS AROUND DAWN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 79 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 58 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 57 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 56 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 47 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 78 64 78 / 0 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...JELSEMA/MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1045 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP NICELY FOR A COLDER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS HEADING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LARGE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN...
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WE SEE A NEGATIVE PHASE ONGOING WITH THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. BOTH A POSITIVE PNA INDEX AND NEGATIVE NAO PHASE
INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAKS TO REACH THE
CONUS...AND THIS IS HAPPENING NOW.

IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A COLD AND
DEEP TROUGH IS EVOLVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES...AND THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST WILL EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CERTAINLY WILL NOT
SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS...BUT WE WILL SEE THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY WITH A COOL DOWN FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

A LARGE SPIN/CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CAN BE SEEN
PULLING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING A WEAK AREA OF UPPER
RIDGING TO TAKE CONTROL.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS SEEING NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE QUICKLY SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.

REST OF TODAY...11/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROP. THE ONLY MOISTURE IS IN THE VERY HIGHEST
LEVELS ABOVE 300MB ASSOCIATED WITH JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. A FEW PASSING PATCHES OF TRANSPARENT CIRRUS MAY INVADE THE
SKY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. A
COMBINATION OF THE GRADIENT WIND FORM THE N/NW AND LOCALIZED
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT MID NOVEMBER DAY SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS A WEAK
IMPULSE/SHORTWAVE RIDES THE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO
WORRIES WITH THIS IMPULSE. EVEN WITH ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TO DRY
THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE TROP TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 0%. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WE SHOULD
SEE WOULD BE PERIODS OF CIRRUS TO DIM THE SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MOST CIRRUS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN HERE MOST OF THE TIME...THE SUN
SHOULD STILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH IT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 70S NORTH...TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
LOWER 80S INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A GREAT
REST OF YOUR TUESDAY EVERYBODY! GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER IF YOU
CAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY...AND IN ALL LOCALES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
RAIN FREE WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MILD WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BRING ELEVATED NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 79 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 78 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 77 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 76 63 78 63 / 0 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
LONG TERM...JELSEMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

554 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE EAST PART EARLY...BUT HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP DIMINISH ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS. THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO STILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CSRA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WILL FAVOR MAINTAINING CONTINUED AND RELOADED
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL
AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE OUR WAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY. FORECAST
MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

MUCH OF THE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS
DISSIPATED. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE FROM THE OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE HRRR HINTS
THAT MORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND OGB
THIS MORNING SO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP DIMINISH ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR MASS WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

522 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN THE EAST SECTION. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH THIS
CLOUDINESS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS HELPED SUPPORT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING. A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER
WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS SO WE FORECASTED CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS INSTEAD OF IFR. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP
DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR MASS WITH AN INCREASE IN
WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1227 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SO STILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CSRA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WILL FAVOR MAINTAINING CONTINUED AND RELOADED
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL
AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE OUR WAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY. FORECAST
MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE WEDGE CONDITION DEVELOPING SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS HELPED SUPPORT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING. A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER
WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS SO WE FORECASTED CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS INSTEAD OF IFR. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP
DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR MASS WITH AN INCREASE IN
WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

238 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

QUITE THE LATE AUTUMN...ACTUALLY MORE EARLY WINTER...WEATHER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WELL-DEFINED NOW OPEN UPPER WAVE
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS ROTATING AROUND A
MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE AND WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER CIRCULATION IN
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE EXISTS IMPRESSIVELY STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AS SEEN BY LAST
EVES RAOBS /FOR EXAMPLE 30C 850MB COOLING IN JUST 12H AT LBF/. THIS
HAS KEPT THE 1001MB SURFACE LOW FROM FILLING MUCH AND HELPED TO
DRIVE A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
MID-MORNING...BRINGING PREDAWN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /EVEN 60 AT
MDW/ QUICKLY TO THE 30S FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
AT 30 MPH OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND TO SOME
DEGREE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA IT WILL BRING
FOCUSED LIFT AND SATURATION...BUT ALSO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ORIENT
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDED SNOW TO OUR
WEST FOR HOURS. IR TRENDS ARE ALREADY INDICATING THICKENING AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER NORTHERN IL AND MODELS
SHOW A TEMPORARY BUT FAIRLY STRONG DIRECT FRONTAL CIRCULATION BY MID
TO LATE MORNING OVER THE AREA. HAVE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH
SUPPORTIVE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO BUMP UP POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO MAINLY
OUTRACE PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING BUT RAIN THIS MORNING...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTH CENTRAL IL WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF EARLIER
COOL ADVECTION MAY BRING A MIX WITH A WET SNOW. DUE TO HOW THE F-GEN
SETS UP...RAP AND NAM PROFILES ACTUALLY SUGGEST SOME CHANCES FOR ICE
PELLETS WITH A DEEP ENOUGH COOL LAYER AND SREF P-TYPE PROBS ALSO
HINT AT THIS...WHICH NORMALLY ONE WOULD NOT SEE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR THAT THOUGH WITH THIS SOMEWHAT UNIQUE SETUP.
EVEN WITH MORNING PRECIP INTENSITY LOOKING MORE INTENSE THAN
EARLIER...IT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AND A WARM GROUND WILL
LIKELY MAKE FOR NO ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW MIXES IN. ALSO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WE DO STILL SEE A CHANCE TO GET SOME PATCHY LIGHT SPITS
OF PRECIP...BUT ANY STRONGER FORCING HAS MOVED ON BY THEN...SO
THE MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

SOMETIMES WITH RAIN AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUCH AS TODAY
THERE IS CONCERN OF FREEZING ON ROADS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
UPSTREAM LOCATIONS OF IA...SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN WI. DO NOT SEE
THAT AS A CONCERN HERE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ALL DAY...EVEN WARMER
PAVEMENT TEMPS...AND DRYING OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT WE ACTUALLY WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUPPRESSION IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE
REALLY CLEARING CLOUDS QUICK THIS EVE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OPTIMISTIC
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS. DO THINK THERE WILL BE GREATER CLEARING
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. LOWS SHOULD FALL OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 20S.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
324 AM CST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE COOL AIR WILL KEEP REPLENISHED ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST WINDS SO THE LOW ANGLE SUNSHINE WILL OFFER LIMITED
WARMING. NOT SEEING MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. REALLY PREVENTING ANY TYPE OF WELL-DEVELOPED
CLIPPER. IT DOES APPEAR A LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER PIVOTS AROUND
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS GIVEN
THE ANOMALOUS COLD...AS QUANTIFIED AT 18Z THURSDAY IN THE COOLEST ONE
PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY 00Z ENSEMBLES. SOME PLACES IN THE
NORTHERN CWA MAY NOT REACH 30. IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD TEENS
EVEN INTO THE CHICAGO METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE ON SKY COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT IS VERY LOW.

WITH A FAIRLY BLOCKED PATTERN EXISTING ACROSS ALASKA/NORTHERN
CANADA/GREENLAND AND AMPLE DEEP COLD AIR ON UPSTREAM CANADIAN
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL IS HIGH. THE NEXT JET MAX DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD
BRING PACIFIC MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. WHILE GFS/EC/GEM ALL ADVERTISE QPF OVER THE REGION...QUITE
A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. IF PRECIPITATION
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
* LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THIS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT. CIGS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2,000 FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LOOKING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH WITH ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CHC SNOW.
MONDAY...VFR.

BMD

.MARINE...
237 PM CST

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEK...GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE
LAKE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
232 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Deepening 1001 mb low pressuer over northern lower MI as cold front
tracks along OH/IN border into nw KY. This was giving blustery
wnw winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph across central IL
this afternoon. Low pressure lifts ne of the Great Lakes region
tonight while strong 1049 mb Canadian high over Alberta ridges
into the Great Plains and noses into IL by dawn Wed. Tight
pressure gradient over central IL this afternoon weakens tonight
and Wed, so expect NW winds to diminish to 8-15 mph this evening
and continues into Wed morning. A large canopy of stratocumulus
clouds with MVFR ceilings covers IL, IA and central and ne MO.
HRRR and RAP models lingers these low clouds over central IL this
evening, though low clouds breaking up during this evening in
southeast IL, and currently happening in southeast MO. Low clouds
will take longer to diminish over ne areas later tonight or during
Wed morning. Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 30s with
Galesburg and Macomb at 32F. These readings are actually closer to
normal lows for mid November. Stayed close to similar MAV/MET cold
lows tonight in the lower 20s over central IL with mid 20s in
southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Pattern over North America settling into a highly amplified stable
regime, which translates to a rather long duration of below normal
temperatures for our area. A Rex block setting up over northwest
Canada into parts of Alaska producing a classic cross Polar flow
through northern and central Canada, draining right into the good
ole U.S. for the remainder of this week and into early next week,
at least. We lose the closed upper high at 500 mb but retain more
of a omega block across western Canada by late in the weekend and
into early next week with a deep upper low just north of Lake
Superior with 500 mb temps around -45 degrees C. This deep and cold
trof more or less is the anchor trof over the hemisphere influencing
the smaller shortwaves and sensible weather over the lower 48. As
we head into the end of this forecast period and beyond, the ECMWF
suggests some relaxation in the pattern as the flow over western
Canada becomes more zonal, which should bottle up the very cold
air over northern Canada as we head into late next week. The flow
over the lower 48 should become more zonal as well which will lead
to a gradual moderating trend as we head into the third week of
November.

As far as specifics are concerned during this period, we should be
rather cold but with very little if any snow through early Saturday
as the large Canadian high slowly settles southeast into the Plains
by Thu and Friday. Several weak vort maxes are forecast to rotate
southeast around the deep and cold trof to our north bringing more
clouds from time to time, but no significant precip other than
flurries. At this time, not seeing enough evidence to add any mention
of flurries as once such shortwave moves thru the area later Thursday
into early Friday. Most of the better lift is forecast to remain
north of the area. Once the wave shifts to our east, a reinforcing
shot of cold air will push across the area with the coldest temps at
850 mb forecast over our area by Friday morning when models indicate
-12 to -14 C will reside over the Midwest. As the center of the cold
shifts off to our east later Saturday, return flow should setup
bringing an increase in clouds ahead of a pair of weather disturbances
bringing the threat for light snow to the area Saturday night into
Sunday.

Models showing some moisture return ahead of the waves for late Sat.
into Sunday, but it appears the more significant precip should remain
along the Gulf Coast into Sunday where the stronger baroclinic zone
will be located ahead of the southern stream wave. The northern stream
wave doesn`t look as significant but we should be able to squeeze out
a tenth of two of moisture, which may lead to some light accumulating
snows for parts of our area Saturday night into Sunday. Once the system
shifts off to our east late in the weekend and into early next week,
another reinforcing push of Canadian air will filter south into our
area keeping temperatures well below normal. The large cold 500 mb rof
will then begin to edge slowly off the east just after this forecast
period with ensembles suggesting another rather vigorous southern
stream shortwave interacting with the low level baroclinic zone over
the Gulf Coast region sending a large area of precip northeast, mainly
along and south of the Ohio River Valley late next week with most
of the ensemble members suggesting no phasing occurring with the
northern stream trof.

So the cold will hang on for a while, but other than the light snowfall
expected later Saturday into Sunday, no major weather systems are
expected to affect the region. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 30s,
where average highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s. Look
for early morning lows in the upper teens north to the lower or middle
20s far southeast, with normal morning lows in the mid to upper 30s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Rain showers have generally passed east of CMI at midday as strong
cold front has tracked east into central IN and western KY and
connected to deepening 1001 mb low pressure over nw lower MI.
Extensive area of MVFR clouds over IL/IA/MO with ceilings
generally 1-2k ft and even as low as 600 ft at BMI. Models linger
MVFR ceilings longer into tonight (at least through this evening) and
trended TAFS forecast this direction. Have MVFR ceilings lifting
to low end VFR during overnight and scatter out during Wed morning.
Breezy WNW winds 13-18 kts with gusts 20-28 kts this afternoon to
diminish to 8-14 kts this evening and be near 10 kts overnight
into Thu morning.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

348 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

A TASTE OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
EVEN TEENS WILL BE THE RULE WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPILLING COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

HRRR AND RAP SHOW POSTFRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SLOWING DOWN A BIT AS
THEY MOVE EAST AND THEREFORE RAIN MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
AREA BY 0Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR EAST FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE GOING DRY EVERYWHERE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. POSTFRONTAL
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALSO THOUGH
AND THIS...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS PREVENTING DECOUPLING...WILL KEEP
THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WERE VERY SIMILAR AND AN AVERAGE WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP COLD
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN DRY. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD COME ON
THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THE AIR WILL BE PRETTY DRY. AT THIS TIME NO MODELS ARE PUTTING ANY
QPF OVER THE AREA AND MOS POPS ARE DRY. THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION
AT THIS TIME IS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND MONITOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE MERITS A
FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MENTION.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS...BUT DID DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THAT FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS BASED ON COLD ADVECTION AND
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE WINTER PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION SHOWING ABSOLUTELY NO SIGNS OF RELENTING
OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TO START THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. REINFORCING
BLAST OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WITH THE POLAR JET. MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT KEEPING THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY MINIMAL
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT GULF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
NORTH. WITH THAT BEING SAID...FORCING ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL A BIT EARLY IN THE
PROCESS...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PINWHEEL INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
IN RESPONSE AND THE RENEWED AND COLDER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
POTENTIAL THAT TEMPS HOLD IN THE 20S BY NEXT TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO END IN SIGHT TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 341 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

2035Z UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD CONDITION. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS FRONT PASSES THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. WINDS GO WEST/NORTHWEST
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25KTS.
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED KHUF AND KLAF AND SHOULD DO LIKEWISE
AT KBMG AND KIND SOMETIME BETWEEN 1800 AND 1900Z. EXPECT A FEW
HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DIPPING TO
800-1000FT.

LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH
FOCUS SHIFTING TO LINGERING MVFR STRATUS AND WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS INDICATING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CEILINGS AT 1500-2000FT PERSISTING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND
20KTS...GRADUALLY DROPPING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY SCATTER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH SCT CU AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THEREAFTER. W/NW WINDS AROUND 10KTS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

841 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

Just updated most notably for cloud trends through the night. The
west edge of the low clouds has slowed to a crawl from near
Evansville Indiana to near Murray Kentucky, but widespread mid-
level clouds have developed over the remainder of the area.
Guidance still pushes the low clouds east of the area by
midnight, but keeps the mid clouds over the area through much of
the night, before clearing in the morning.

It appears that there will be a lull in the north winds late this
evening and into the overnight hours, but the latest model data
shows a tightening pressure gradient toward morning, so winds will
likely pick up significantly by daybreak. The combination of clouds
and winds should keep temperatures from dropping much tonight. Lows
were hardly changed across the region with this update.

Noticed single digit dewpoints as close as central Missouri as of
02Z. With the continued northwest winds, our dewpoint forecast may
not be low even across at least the northwest half of the area
during the day Thursday.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 121 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

Clouds continued to cover the CWFA early this afternoon, keeping
temperatures from rising much as well. Breaks continue to head SE
from Missouri and west IL. Should see a gradual decrease with
time. RAP was a decent guide in handling the general trend.

At the surface, strong high pressure with unseasonably cold air will
continue to move southeast, overspreading the area. It should
finally be centered over our area by 12z Saturday. Meanwhile, a
double barrel low over the northern Plains and Great Lakes will
phase, with one low heading up through Quebec, while energy from the
western end swings across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tonight
through Thursday. Expect mainly mid and upper level clouds tonight
through early Thursday, followed by decreasing clouds. NW flow will
persist as energy dives south into the Rockies from west Canada
Friday through Friday night. Dry weather is forecast with just a few
clouds from Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

As far as temperatures, followed a blend of the slightly colder MOS
and standard model output. MOS appears to have finally caught on to
the degree of cold air. Prior output from a few days ago, MOS had
its typical mild climo influence bias, while the standard raw model
output was better identifying how cold it would likely be. No real
model preference in the short term tonight and beyond. A GFS/NAM
blend was used.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

Main focus continues to be on weekend precip (even wintry) chances,
and the continued cold. Both the GFS and ECMWF ops runs continue to
suffer run to run inconsistencies, especially with respect to timing
in response to the evolution of the mid tropospheric flow pattern
over the CONUS east of the Rockies. The GFS is trending toward, and
ECMWF back towards separate energy that may pinch off the main trof
over the Southern Rockies, eventually heading east over the weekend.
The models continue to advertise a lead weak s/wv that will move
from the southern Rockies to Mississippi Valley region Saturday into
Saturday night. May see rather light wintry mix into SEMO by
afternoon. Will continue with light rain/light snow mention here.
Saturday night, as the wave moves ENE, the models continue to hint
at a band of light precip (parameters suggest light snow), for
parts of the area. Not much QPF, so still not expecting much. But
any minor coating of light snow around here...well.

The models are not showing much now for Sunday, thus will keep PoPs
on the low side. As some slightly warmer boundary layer air advects
into the SE 1/2 of the CWFA (still favor the slightly colder GFS),
will use a mix (including light rain) mention, with just light
snow NW 1/2. As the aforementioned mid level wave moves east
Sunday and phases with the parent broad mid level trof by Sunday
night, models ramp up moisture a bit over the SE 1/2 of the area.
This is slower, so PoPs will need to linger Sunday night, vs.
early depictions of ending things by Sunday evening. This is where
the back and forth (changing forecast) has been most prominent.
Again types, light wintry mix possible SE 1/2, just a small chance
of light snow NW 1/2. The GFS remains quicker departing chances,
while the ECMWF lingers the chance now through early Monday.

Given the adjustments and changes that continue to go on within the
models, will keep PoPs in check and only in the chance category for
now. Otherwise continued cold through early next week. Dry weather
returns for most of Monday on through Wednesday.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 546 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

Given the cloud layer depth from observation sites and pilot
reports, anticipate that clearing trend will continue over the
KPAH/KCGI TAF sites this evening, with a brief period of broken
mid-clouds (8-10kft AGL). The KEVV/KOWB sites will be more
problematic with clearing, even though the observed and forecast
cloud layer depth is quite shallow. Model guidance still suggests
lift above the cloud layer, so ran a more pessimistic MVFR/VFR
ceiling forecast for the first 12 hours. Will watch cloud trends
with the dry air punch just west of KEVV to see if further
progression of clearing takes place this evening...and adjust
accordingly.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

547 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 121 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.AVIATION...
Issued at 546 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

215 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Strong cold front moved through the area today, bringing some light
rain/drizzle to the region. A particularly cold air mass is spilling
into the region behind the front. Any lingering areas of rain should
be exiting the area by 00Z Wednesday so will leave tonight`s
forecast dry. This dry weather will continue through the end of the
week.

Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region
tonight with cold air advection in full force. A strong upper level
closed low over eastern Montana and western North Dakota this
morning will move east toward the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday
morning and then eventually make its way into eastern Canada. As
this happens, a trough dive south into the eastern third of the
nation, which will allow for the cold air to infiltrate the region.

Therefore, the main challenges in the short term will be cloud cover
(at least for tonight into tomorrow) and temperatures. Will be
watching the clearing line closely to see if it indeed will keep
tracking eastward across the CWA this evening. Model time heights
and soundings indicate some lingering low level moisture, so this
will have to be watched. The RUC tries to clear out the southwestern
parts of our CWA early this evening, but later in the evening, it
could cloud back up. After some coordination with neighboring
offices, will probably have to go a bit more pessimistic with cloud
cover at least this evening. It appears as though the clouds should
break up by tomorrow morning.

Strong cold air advection will continue on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. So, despite some sunshine, highs will only be in the upper
30s to lower 40s with a 10 to 15 mph wind, as H85 temps plummet
below zero by 00Z Thursday. Highs will be even lower on Thursday and
only be in the 30s. This will be a very dry airmass as well, with
dewpoints going down into the teens by Thursday. By Thursday night,
the center of the sfc high should be positioned just to our west
which should set the stage for one of our coldest nights this week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Focus will be on persistent colder than normal temperatures, and
the chance of light wintry precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday. Having watched the models since Saturday, the GFS has been
the more consistent model in general terms with the pattern
evolution, more in line with previous ensemble mean solutions.
Meanwhile the ECMWF, especially after evaluating the 12z version
continues to exhibit more run to run inconsistency. Therefore
more weight will be given to the GFS.

First, looking at the weekend precipitation. Believe the colder
GFS solution is the way to go given the degree of cold air within
this pattern. Both models show a subtle H7/H5 wave moving ENE
across the area Saturday night. Could be some very light precip
into SEMO by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night, a swath of light
precip / QPF expected somewhere across the CWFA. Again, ECMWF 00z
run showed hardly anything, then the 12z run ramps up QPF (a bit
too extreme with the changes). Precip type Saturday night should
be mainly light snow. May be borderline toward the TN border,
largely dependent on the strength of the H8 flow from the SSW,
which isn`t that impressive per the GFS. A second swath of
moisture and light QPF/precip expected Sunday with the parent H5
wave forecast to move across the Mississippi Valley region toward
the Ohio Valley region. Best chances Sunday will be from SW
Indiana into west KY, only slight chances west into SEMO, southern
IL. Colder solutions again depict mainly light snow. Though,
should some boundary layer warming occur briefly Sunday, may be a
mix with rain into west KY. We generally don`t talk specifics
this far out, with respect to wintry precip (in particular
amounts). Still too soon to say, given temps Sunday back up into
the mid 30s, some upper 30s (above freezing). And Saturday night,
QPF, for the most part, has been forecast to be "light", more
often than not. PoPs will be kept in the chance category, but
upped slightly.

Otherwise, dry weather Friday through most of Saturday. In the
wake of the system on Sunday, dry/cold weather for Sunday night
through Tuesday, with an active flow pattern continuing with the
mean broad trof over the east 2/3 of the CONUS.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Needless to say there has been a rapid reduction in the lower clouds
over Missouri. Clearing working across SEMO. Models not handling this
well. Will likely have to make additional adjustments to decreasing
cloud cover. Otherwise gusty NW winds will level off to 4-8 kts
tonight, with lingering drizzle/light rain and MVFR/IFR conditions
from SW Indiana into west KY improving as the band of deeper
moisture in the wake of the surface front moves east.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...CN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

153 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1115 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Cold front at 17z extended from near KEVV to KPAH. Along the
front, light rains drop the visibility into the MVFR range, with a
sharp wind shift to NW, gusts 20-30 kts common. The front will
continue a steady eastward movement through early afternoon
clearing the rest of the area. Clouds extend clear back across
Missouri. Will be a while before clouds, generally MVFR category,
clear out. We have delayed the decrease just a bit. A few clouds
may linger all night at KEVV and KOWB per H9 progs, forecast
soundings. Will lose the gusts with time, but NW winds 4-8 kts
will persist through the night.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...CN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

616 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AT 12Z...COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A LINE FROM KPSN...TO NEAR KGGG...TO
NEAR NASHVILLE AR. FRONT IS MAKING MUCH FASTER PROGRESS SEWD THAN
MOST OF THE MODELS HAD PREDICTED. MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHWRS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM W TO E LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER 12/00Z BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. /09/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BIG CHANGES COMING TODAY IN THE FORM OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH
AS OF 08Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A MLC...DFW...SJT LINE. THIS FRONT IS
MOVING SE CLOSE TO 35KTS AND IS QUICKLY OUTRUNNING ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM PROGS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
POST FRONTAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS PLUS AND FOR THIS REASON...
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD
FOR TODAY. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DROP
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OUACHITAS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
BOUNDARY DOWN A LITTLE AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE BUT FOR GRID
PURPOSES...WENT WITH THE HRRR IN THE FIRST 12HRS OF THE FORECAST
WHICH IS A MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE FASTER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL MET/MAV MOS. KEPT POP MENTION
TODAY UNTOUCHED AS THE BETTER COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF TODAY AS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER ASSUMING A
BROKEN LINE CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EVEN THROUGH THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET. BECAUSE OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEING POSTED WITH THIS PACKAGE...WILL DEFER THE POSSIBLE
FREEZE WARNING TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BUT THIS FORECAST WILL
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WHICH WILL HELP TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVHD IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET
TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WE LOSE THIS MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FORECAST HAS
OUR ENTIRE AREA SEEING A FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT SO A FREEZE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE COUNTIES/PARISHES THAT DO NOT
GET ONE TONIGHT.

WE SHOULD STAY DRY BUT COLD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY IN THIS CONTINUED
FAST/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS
WITH IT TO DRAW UP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL THIS WEEKEND BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR JUST A COLD RAIN
BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF OUR NW ZONES ON SUNDAY JUST AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

THE RELOADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST PER THE ECMWF RUN OF
MONDAY MORNING NO LONGER SHOWS UP IN ITS CURRENT 00Z TUE RUN. THUS
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE...
WILL BE GOING WITH A COOL BUT DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE MODERATED ENOUGH BY
THEN FOR NO WINTER PRECIP CONCERNS.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING LZK/DFW...PRELIMS TO
FOLLOW...13.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 63 37 53 35 47 / 30 0 0 10 10
MLU 68 38 54 34 47 / 30 20 0 10 10
DEQ 51 29 47 29 43 / 20 0 0 10 10
TXK 55 32 48 32 42 / 20 0 0 10 10
ELD 64 35 51 33 46 / 30 10 0 10 10
TYR 48 34 51 35 46 / 20 0 0 10 10
GGG 54 34 52 35 46 / 30 0 0 10 10
LFK 64 37 55 37 49 / 30 10 0 10 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>004-010.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

232 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BIG CHANGES COMING TODAY IN THE FORM OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH
AS OF 08Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A MLC...DFW...SJT LINE. THIS FRONT IS
MOVING SE CLOSE TO 35KTS AND IS QUICKLY OUTRUNNING ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM PROGS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
POST FRONTAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS PLUS AND FOR THIS REASON...
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD
FOR TODAY. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DROP
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OUACHITAS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
BOUNDARY DOWN A LITTLE AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE BUT FOR GRID
PURPOSES...WENT WITH THE HRRR IN THE FIRST 12HRS OF THE FORECAST
WHICH IS A MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE FASTER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL MET/MAV MOS. KEPT POP MENTION
TODAY UNTOUCHED AS THE BETTER COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF TODAY AS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER ASSUMING A
BROKEN LINE CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING LZK/DFW...PRELIMS TO
FOLLOW...13.

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>004-010.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

126 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING WITH VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST AT MIDDAY.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CUT OFF POPS OVER I-95
CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD RIC METRO AND PTS WEST. HRRR AND NEW
DOWNSCALE NAME SEEM TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
REASONABLY WELL. SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING N-NWWD TOWARD
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THANKS TO AN AREA OF DEFORMATION ALOFT AND
RATHER SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT (MAINLY BELOW 0C). ISENTROPIC
LIFT/OVERRUNNING WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP FARTHER N ACROSS EASTERN
VA AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS LOW GETS SHUNTED NEWD THROUGH MID AFTN BY SRN STREAM
JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. VORT MAXIMA AND
DEFORMATION ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE POPS
REMAIN IN LKLY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE (60-80%), QPF REMAINS RATHER
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE SE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH COULD SEE UP TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS.

SKY COVER IS A BIT TRICKY, WITH LOW CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH DRIER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE COURTESY OF
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE HANGING IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPS
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 17Z. HAVE KEPT IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG
AND NW OF AN AVC TO OFP LINE. OTHERWISE, HAVE HELD ONTO OVC/MCLDY
SKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST EASTERN ZONES...WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE JUST AFTER 19-20Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-95
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. DESPITE CLOUDS, MILD TEMPS THIS
AFTN, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 65-70.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW FILLS AND EJECTS NEWD OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS ANY REMAINING
LIGHT PRECIP DEPARTS THE LOCAL AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED FROM CNTRL VA EWD...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE. WIDESPREAD FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THE STAGNANT AIR MASS...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.

A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL HELP AMPLIFY AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THRU THE SHORT TERM.
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY
WEDS...SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA THRU THE DAY WEDS. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO WORK
WITH. COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NW SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH FOR THE ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. WINDS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN SWLY WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. THIS WILL STALL THE FRONT FROM JUST OFFSHORE SWWD
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. RESULTANT INCREASING SLY FLOW ABOVE THE COOL/STABLE
LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE WEDS NIGHT THRU THURS.
OVERRUNNING AND DYNAMICS SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP THURS EVENING AS MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXITING AND
STRONG CAA SURGING ACROSS THE AREA COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SN/IP MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHRAS THU EVENING BEFORE ANY LIGHT
PRECIP ENDS LATE...MAINLY OVER THE NW GIVEN DRIER AIR ABOVE H85
QUICKLY SHUNTING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO ACCUMULATIONS IS
EXPECTED ATTM. HIGHS THURS WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 40S NW TO MID
50S SE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE FRI AS ~1030 MB
MODIFYING CANADIAN HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH NW WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S. THE HI CONTINUES TO SLIDE E FRI
NGT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S UNDER A MSTLY CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT NW WINDS. THE HI CENTERS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC SAT UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH TEMPS STILL ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPR 40S.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF LO PRES OFF THE SE CST SUN
WHICH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE THRU MON AHEAD OF AN UPR-LEVEL TROF.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40-50% WITH THIS SYSTM AS CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIP HAS INCREASED DESPITE STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. BASED
ON LO-LEVEL TEMPS AND THICKNESSES IT APPEARS THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE
PLAIN RAIN.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS PRESENT AT OR NEAR EACH OF THE TAF
SITES. OTHER THAN RIC...NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS A WEDGED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS PRESENT FROM NEW JERSEY TO GEORGIA. STLT
SHOWS A CLEARING LINE NEAR RIC BUT THIS LINE SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS TO THE SE DURING THE AFTN. RADAR AND METARS SHOWED SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN.

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A REDEVELOPMENT OR
LOWERING OF STRATUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST AT
EACH OF THE TERMINALS. IN THIS CASE...THE GFS MOS HAS THE LOWER CIGS
AS OPPOSED TO THE CORRESPONDING SITUATION 24 HOURS AGO WHEN THE NAM
MOS HAD THE LOWER CONDITIONS.

AS WINDS TURN THE N/NW WEDNESDAY MORNING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
DRY OUT AND THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE ALL SITES GOING TO VFR
BY 14-15Z ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN PRIOR TO THIS.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR LGT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TODAY INTO WED MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST WILL TEND TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME SWELL HOWEVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HEADLINE FOR THE NC
COASTAL WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK TO 3-4 FT
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE N/NW (AND REMAINS
QUITE WEAK).

OVERALL...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM WED AFTN INTO THE
WEEKEND AS COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH OVER THE RELATIVE
WARMTH OF THE WATERS. THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATER WED AFTN AND
PEAKS WED NIGHT. GRADIENT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT OPTIMAL MIXING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ATTAIN SCA CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SO HAVE SIDED
WITH HIGHEST GUIDANCE AS MOS GUIDE IS TOO LOW IN THESE SCENARIOS.
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 20-25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND...AND 25-30
KT FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. FLOW IS NNW SO SEAS WILL GENLY
NOT GET HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH WAVES 3-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 2-3 FT
IN THE RIVERS. A PIECE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS E OF THE
MTNS ON THU...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RELAX BELOW SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS MAIN SFC HIGH IS STILL CENTERED W OF
THE MTNS. AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP MIXING (EVEN MORE THAN WITH THE WED NIGHT
SURGE) SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ADD THESE HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1204 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACRS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MAINLY LOW CIGS BETWEEN AFTER 09Z. STILL QUITE
VARIABLE AT TAF SITES...KPHF HAS IFR IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG WHILE
OTHER SITES ARE VFR OR MVFR. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LAMP
GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM (THAT IS NOT VERIFYING
WELL CURRENTLY). SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT KORF/KPHF/KECG AFTER
10Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRIC/KSBY EVEN
WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR CONDS TO PERSIST
THRU THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT/EARLY WED WITH FAIRLY HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FAVORS A WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. HARD TO SAY IF THIS IS MORE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS/MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LATER WED MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHC FOR LGT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

THE 21Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE
OF INTEREST LIFTING E-NE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONG
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM SNOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING STRONG HOWEVER ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR COUNTIES AIDED BY A UPSLOPE NNE FLOW...THIS IS
ESPECIALLY EVIDENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES WHERE
THE RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITY AT OR ABV 30 DBZ.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN WAS ONGOING WSW HEADLINES.
SINCE SNOW HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TIER
COUNTIES HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR IRON THROUGH
SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DECIDED TO TRANSITION FM WINTER STORM
WARNINGS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES OVER NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND
LUCE COUNTIES AS THE HEAVIER SYSTEM SNOW HAS EXITED EAST AND NE FLOW
WILL LIMIT LES ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
WINDS BACK FM NNE TO MORE NW. EXPECT LES ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO
-13C LEADING TO LAKE DELTA-T NEAR 18C.

HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL FCST AREA AS NNE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. STRONGLY CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH 12-15 KFT WILL
FAVOR MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES...PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAVIEST LES SNOW
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE THE FAR WRN COUNTIES LATE AS FLOW BACKS TO
NW. SNOW GROWTH WILL NOT BE IDEAL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST
OMEGA/LIFT BELOW THE DGZ. MODELS INDICATE SNOW/WATER RATIOS AVERAGED
NEAR 15/1 THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF GEENRALLY FM
.2 TO .5 INCHES...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE
WARNING COUNTIES. MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SNOW
TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR AS FLOW BACKS TO NW.
COULD EASILY SEE THESE COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE WARNING
COUNTIES TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND WINDS DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE
U.P. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH. THIS
ALONG WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH...WILL ALLOW DELTA T VALUES TO INCREASE TO 18 TO
20C...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS
THIS COLDER AIR PUSHES ACROSS...THIS WILL ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10KFT...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE IN THE DGZ...
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOW GROWTH. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE
LARGELY FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS OF THE U.P.
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN U.P. SEEING SOME OF THE
GREATER TOTALS ALONG WITH AREAS EAST OF THE HARVEY AND MARQUETTE
AREAS OUT TO NEAR GRAND MARAIS DUE TO THE INCREASED FETCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE TOTALS APPROACH A
FOOT NEAR MUNISING AND EAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE SNOW RATIOS INCREASE. A
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR
ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF AT
THIS POINT TO KEEP FROM HAVING MULTIPLE HEADLINES OUT FOR THE SAME
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS SLOWLY OUT OF
THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING NORTH AND
EASTWARD FROM MISSOURI...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL HINTING AT
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN WITH THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL AGAIN HELP TO
LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER HUDSON BAY ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH TO
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER MONTANA...WHILE ANOTHER HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD PUT THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN A SADDLE POINT REGION WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST WEAK
F-GEN. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ANALYZING 850MB THETA-E ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IN THAT LAYER. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD...EXPECT DELTA-T VALUES TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO
AROUND 18 TO 20C ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WOULD BE OVER THE WEST WIND FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...EXPECT CONTINUED BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
REGION. MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VLIFR MORE LIKELY AT SAW
WITH THE GUSTY NNE WIND THAT WILL ACCENTUATE THE BLSN THERE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE LOW PRES SHIFTS TO THE E...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE LATE TODAY. BUT IFR/LIFR WEATHER WILL STILL BE THE RULE IN
THE LINGERING CYCLONIC...MOIST NNW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY GALES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU THROUGH SAT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007-
085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

409 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A NOTABLE BAROCLINIC LEAF
WAS LIFTING NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL DIV OVER WI
AND UPPER MI ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WAS ALSO
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVING
INTO THE AREA...THE SNOW COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS INCREASED FROM WI
INTO THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. ACROSS THE E HALF THE CWA...THE DRY
SLOT LINGERED WITH SOME POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

TODAY...AS THE IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA THE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONV AND 850-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. ANY LEFTOVER FZDZ/DZ OVER THE
SOUTH SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO SNOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND 0.4 TO 0.6
INCH...GREATEST NE...ALONG WITH SLR VALUES IN THE 10/1 TO 14/1 RANGE
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 4 G/KG AVAILABLE IN
THE 295K-300K LAYER. GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WHERE STRONG NE
UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AND FROM IWD TO
ROCKLAND. AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL FROM -8C TO -12C...LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO NRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FROM NRN LAKE HURON AT 00Z/WED
THROUGH ERN ONTARIO NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NNW.
ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EVENING AS
THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV DYNAMICS LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NE...THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AND 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -14C WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW. SO...WINTER STORM HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE N CNTRL.
EVEN WITHOUT THE LARGER SCALE LIFT...INVERSION HEIGHTS AOA 10K FT
WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS AROUND
10K FT OCNLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND N CNTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY GALES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU THROUGH SAT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007-
085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

653 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

SFC AND 500MB LOW CENTERS WILL BE NE OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED...BUT
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE STRETCHED BACK ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY PURELY SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
MORNING...BUT LES WILL BE IN FULL SWING IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -16C...MAKING FOR
LAKE-850MB DELTA T VALUES OF AROUND 18C WITH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF OVER 10KFT AT 12Z. CONDITIONS STAY FAIRLY
STEADY STATE FOR LES THROUGH MUCH OF WED...WITH MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS MOVING IN LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE AND A INCREASE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 13KFT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NNW BEHIND THE
SECONDARY TROUGH WED EVENING INTO THU. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED WITH HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE...BUT
FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY 8 INCHES TO A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE NW FAVORED
SNOWBELTS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...HIGHEST NEAR IRONWOOD AND E OF
MARQUETTE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS THAT THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A RIBBON OF DRY AIR SLOWLY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WHILE MOISTENING ON WED...WHICH IF IT
OCCURS WOULD KNOCK AMOUNTS DOWN. DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NNW WIND
SNOWBELTS THU INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN
FROM THE W.

FORECAST QUIETS DOWN FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. UNCERTAIN HOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON PLAYS OUT EXACTLY...BUT
AT LEAST LES SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING AND
NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN GALES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD NRLY BY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU
THROUGH SAT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-013-
014-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ010>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ246-247-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

537 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

EXPECT PERIODS OF LGT SN EARLY THIS MRNG TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVIER
SN TOWARD 12Z AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE APRCHS UPR MI FM THE SW. THE
BEST CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE RELATIVE LULL
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WL BE AT THE MORE EXPOSED SAW
LOCATION WITH A MORE FAVORABLE...GUSTY UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LIFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AREA
OF HEAVIER SN AND EVEN TO VLIFR AT SAW WITH THE GUSTY NNE WIND THAT
WL ACCENTUATE THE BLSN THERE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE LO PRES SHIFTS TO
THE E...CONDITIONS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TODAY. BUT IFR/LIFR WX WL
STILL BE THE RULE IN THE LINGERING CYC...MOIST NNW FLOW LEFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-013-
014-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ010>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ246-247-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

526 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SE WI TONIGHT AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD NRLY BY LATE TUE INTO TUE EVENING. GUSTY N TO
NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU THROUGH SAT
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-013-
014-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ010>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ246-247-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...07

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

A BUSY DAY TODAY WITH A SIMPLY AMAZING FRONTOGENESIS BAND THAT HAS
SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE
MILLE LACS IN MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES SO FAR IN PINE...BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
PARTS OF ASHLAND. PROBABLY SURROUNDING LOCATIONS WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS...BUT THATS WHAT WE HAVE FOR NOW. ANYWAY...THIS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NOW...TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE BEEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THINGS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
INTO TUESDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IN OUR SNOW BAND WILL BE SEEN FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW THE FORECAST
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FROM 12 TO 15 INCHES...AND
15 TO 20 IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ANOTHER 8 TO 12 OVER THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. HAVE PUT
IN SOME BLOWING SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LAKE WHERE STRONG WINDS COMING OFF THE LAKE INTO OPEN
AREAS WILL WHIP SNOW ABOUT. TEMPERATURES HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND NOT VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET...WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

DEEP SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SRN ONTARIO AND
WRN QUEBEC. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DROP IN FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND ACT TO CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SNOW BELT
REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY IN NRN WI. A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC
AIR AND A LONG NRLY FETCH OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ONTO THE SOUTH
SHORE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR AND SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFTS EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN ON
SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN AND ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL
MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. LARGE SCALE LIFT NOT VERY STRONG NOR IS THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IMPRESSIVE...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
SYSTEM AS A WHOLE AT THIS TIME RANGE IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT. TEMPS COOLER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS NEAR ZERO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE HARDEST HIT TAF SITES WILL
BE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM KBRD TO
KDLH TO KHYR. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR DURING THE
DAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 24 16 27 / 100 50 10 20
INL 16 25 18 26 / 10 10 20 30
BRD 19 24 9 26 / 100 20 10 20
HYR 24 27 11 27 / 100 90 20 30
ASX 27 29 16 30 / 100 100 60 50

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ035>038.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ033-034.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140-141-146>148.

GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ142>145.

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MOORE/BJT
AVIATION...DAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

345 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

Northwest flow and strong cold advection is bringing an Arctic
airmass down into the Great Plains and Midwest. Temperatures are
between 25 and 40 degrees colder now than they were at this time
yesterday. Cold advection will continue overnight and expect some
of the coldest temperatures yet this Fall. Lows tonight ranging
from the upper teens to low and mid 20s will feel more like late
December or early January than mid November. Not in danger of
breaking any record lows though as STL`s record for November 12 is
12, COU is 9, and UIN is 10. Clouds are going to be tough to
forecast tonight as most of the operational guidance is clueless.
Am leaning heavily on the RAP and experimental NARRE for cloud
forecast tonight. Generally...expect any clearing from the south
and west to slow and finally stop this evening as cold advection
continues, and a gradual increase in low level clouds as low level
RH continues to advect from the north. Unfortunately...specifics
are somewhat murky at this time, but I expect the majority of the
area to stay cloudy or mostly cloudy tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

(Wednesday - Friday)

Continue to favor the RAP model for lo level moisture and clouds,
and this strongly favors the lo clouds remaining for at least part
of Wednesday...perhaps beyond.

Otherwise, a dry column--especially below 500mb--accompanied with
unusually cold air will prevail during this period. The only
disturbance to impact the area during this time will be the tail-end
of a vort lobe from late Wednesday thru early Thursday. Given the
very open structure of this wave and the column it has to act upon,
do not foresee anything more than hi and some mid cloud moving thru
with continued dry wx. Look for max temps in the lo-mid 30s with
min temps from 15-25 should be common. Much of this stretch will
feature max temps that are 20-25 degrees below normal!

(Saturday - Sunday)

A better signal for a disturbance remains set for this period,
although there are no gimmes with this either. Models are now
advertising a more stout shortwave for late Saturday night and
Sunday, along with disturbances out ahead of it set for Saturday
daytime.

Moisture thru the column will continue to be at low supply, but when
dealing with a cold airmass of this type, it will not take much if
the forcing is strong enough. It is looking more favorable for what
will probably be a short-lived event for the weekend, and it still
looks to be mostly snow. But the details on when enough saturation
can occur and when still remain murky, and so still not going any
higher than chance category at this point.

This event will be then followed by another shot of cold air for
late Saturday night and Sunday.

(Monday - Next Tuesday)

Deep cyclonic flow will be in place but position in relation to the
main LOW to the north and lack of non-heavily sheared disturbances
will at this time preclude pcpn mention and favor a dry forecast.
The cold will continue, with the blocking pattern not changing in
western North America and the next round of reinforcing cold will be
set to move in later on Monday and continue into Tuesday.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

MVFR ceilings aren`t exactly screaming out of the area as expected
earlier today. Think there will be some partial clearing across
portions of central and eastern Missouri as well as southwest
Illinois later this afternoon and early evening. However, short
range guidance is bringing another slug of low level moisture
south from Iowa across the region tonight. Operational guidance
does not pick up on this well, so am hedging a little on terminal
forecasts, but if the rapid-update short range/experimental
guidance continues to show this higher moisture coming in tonight,
will update later this afternoon/early evening to bring ceilings
back in. If these lower ceilings do affect the area, it looks like
they`ll be AOB 2,000FT, but probably not IFR. Wind will continue
out of the northwest sustained between 10-15kts will occasional
gusts in excess of 20kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect MVFR ceilings to prevail for the remainder of the
afternoon. Current thinking is that ceiling will rise above 2,000
FT at some point, but am not confident on when that will occur.
Ceilings should scatter out at some point during the early
evening, but am concerned that short-range/experimental guidance
is bringing another slug of low level moisture into the area
during the mid-late evening. None of the operational guidance
picks up on this, so am hedging a little bit in the TAF. However,
if the rapid update/experimental guidance continues to bring
ceilings back into the STL area, will update to indicate this at
either 21Z or 00Z. Wind will continue out of the northwest
sustained between 10-15kts will occasional gusts in excess of
20kts.

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

948 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROP TO -1 BELOW IN BILLINGS AND TO A -3
BELOW IN LIVINGSTON. COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
RISES NOW PAST JUDITH GAP AND HARLOWTON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
DECREASING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND DROP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ALSO LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING
OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS TODAY BUT SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MAY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED HIGHER POPS THERE. SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR. RICHMOND

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A REINFORCING BATCH OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY MAKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE COLDEST OF
THE CURRENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH NOTABLE FORCING
ALOFT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT/S SPINNING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MT AND NORTHWEST ND ON 10 UTC WATER VAPOR IMAGES. SNOW FLAKES HAVE
INDEED BEEN FINE-GRAINED WITH HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS...BUT THE
AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO WRING MUCH MOISTURE OUT OF IT ANYMORE...AND
SO LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW /AS EXPECTED/.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS /AND EVEN THE
MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS/ ALL SUGGEST THE LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER ABOUT 12 UTC WHEN THE
QG-FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. WE CANCELLED THE REST OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST RELEASE SINCE THE EVENT IS
WINDING DOWN. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL A BIT DURING THE
DAY IN PLACES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LOCALLY ELEVATED AT JUDITH GAP AND HARLOWTON IN THIS PATTERN
AND SO WE CONTINUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THERE. WE
DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN MANY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THEY WON/T AMOUNT TO MUCH.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP WITH SUNSET AND WITH SOME
FRESH SNOW COVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 1047
MB OR MORE...LOWS IN THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND
A FEW -20 F LOWS ARE LIKELY IN SOME VALLEYS. WE UNDERCUT MOS A BIT
IN SPOTS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE FORECAST MIGHT NOT BE QUITE
COLD ENOUGH IN SPOTS. BILLINGS AND LIVINGSTON MAY BOTH VERY EASILY
SET DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR TWO CALENDAR DAYS AS THE RECORDS FOR THE
11TH ARE VERY ACHIEVABLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER
11TH ARE -5 AT BILLINGS /SET IN 1940/ AND -8 AT LIVINGSTON /SET IN
2000/ AND RECORD LOWS FOR THE 12TH ARE -11 AT BILLINGS /FROM 1986/
AND -19 AT LIVINGSTON /SET IN 1959/.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK MIXING BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RESULT IN EVEN
COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. WELL-SHELTERED LOCALES
THAT DROP WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT MAY STAY BELOW ZERO ALL DAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS THAT WILL BE THEIR COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK WITH LOWS DOWN IN
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED RANGE PROGGS CERTAINLY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
REGARDS TO HOW FAST OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MUCH WARMER SCENARIOS.
I HAVE GENERALLY CHOSEN TO USE A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO HAVE A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AS SUCH I HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THEN IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS
OUT OF SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THERE IS A GOOD TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
RIGHT INTO OUR SW MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHICS WILL AID SNOW PRODUCTION
OVER WEST FACING SLOPES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE/OVERRUNNING OVER THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING
BILLINGS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

ONCE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION THE 500MB HEIGHTS TRY
TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS THE COOLER VERSION KEEPING
A HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SEEMS LIKE A
SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE CURRENT OPEN DOOR OF COLD
AIR. SO I DID WEIGHT THE ECMWF A LITTLE HEAVIER ON THE BLEND OF
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FLURRIES. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING AT KBIL AND KSHR BETWEEN 1700Z AND
1800Z. BORSUM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 008 911/004 908/016 004/018 902/016 902/033 013/036
3/J 10/B 00/U 03/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
LVM 005 919/001 910/022 008/023 001/017 003/034 023/038
4/J 10/U 01/U 33/S 40/B 00/U 01/B
HDN 008 907/007 911/020 003/020 001/016 901/032 011/035
3/J 10/B 00/U 02/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
MLS 007 908/009 911/013 904/016 901/012 902/028 008/026
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 006 908/010 913/017 901/021 002/013 903/029 008/030
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 30/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 007 908/009 915/010 907/014 901/009 001/023 008/022
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/U 10/B 00/N 00/B
SHR 005 913/004 916/019 003/028 003/015 905/032 011/036
6/S 10/U 00/U 02/S 41/B 00/U 00/U

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

317 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A REINFORCING BATCH OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY MAKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE COLDEST OF
THE CURRENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

.AVIATION...

LOCALIZED LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSHR THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL HUG THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH 16Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N TO S BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUD
DECKS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. BT

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 008 911/004 908/016 004/018 902/016 902/033 013/036
4/J 10/B 00/U 03/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
LVM 005 919/001 910/022 008/023 001/017 003/034 023/038
6/J 10/U 01/U 33/S 40/B 00/U 01/B
HDN 008 907/007 911/020 003/020 001/016 901/032 011/035
4/J 10/B 00/U 02/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
MLS 007 908/009 911/013 904/016 901/012 902/028 008/026
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 006 908/010 913/017 901/021 002/013 903/029 008/030
4/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 30/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 007 908/009 915/010 907/014 901/009 001/023 008/022
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/U 10/B 00/N 00/B
SHR 005 913/004 916/019 003/028 003/015 905/032 011/036
8/S 10/U 00/U 02/S 41/B 00/U 00/U

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
28-63.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

302 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD OVER THE EAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL MID NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST...AND THIS BASIC ARRANGEMENT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WITH A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE FOR
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
EAST AND NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE A FREQUENT FORECAST PHRASE OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SNOWY CLIP OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO ON TAP FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION CENTER SITTING OVER THE
WILLISTON BASIN OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ANCHORING BROAD TROUGH
SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S...AND KEEPING NEW MEXICO
IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTH TO THE UPPER
YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND YUKON FLATS REGION OF EASTERN ALASKA AND
WESTERN ARCTIC CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BORDERS A LARGE COLD
AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE U.S...WITH LOCAL ADVANCEMENT TO
ROUGHLY A TAOS TO ROSWELL LINE...AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS HOBBS
AND LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS. AS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES HAVE TAKEN THE BIG DIVE OVER THE
EAST...WITH TEENS AND 20S OVERNIGHT COMMON OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...AS ROSWELL AND POINTS SOUTH DIP INTO THE 30S.
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT STORY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEST...WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S AND
50S. THIS COLD EAST AND WARMER WEST PATTERN WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
EMERGING TUESDAY ON MOVEMENTS AND STRENGTHS OF SYSTEMS THROUGH NEW
MEXICO. GOOD START BACKS FLOW ALOFT TO TURBULENT ZONAL TODAY...AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE CRANKS UP OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND SHEARS
RAPIDLY OUT OF IDAHO AND THE EASTERN WASHINGTON PALOUSE COUNTRY TO
CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM
RIDGE DECAPITATES NEATLY LATE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SPEEDIER
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL AMPLIFY VERY GRADUALLY LATE FRIDAY FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT
SHORTWAVE IN LINE AMPLIFYING OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL DIG
RAPIDLY TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND SHEAR RAPIDLY INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
TO WESTERN ARCTIC CANADA WILL BE DECAPITATED LATE MONDAY...WITH
SOUTHERN RIDGE REMNANTS COLLAPSING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON WHAT COMES NEXT...AS
EUROPEAN FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF DEEPEN A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND MOVE THIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK AND ENDING
THE STORY WITH NEW MEXICO BACK IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DOMESTIC COLLEAGUES AT GFS PREFER A MUCH SMALLER AND FASTER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY IN A LESS AMPLIFIED AND
MORE ZONAL PATTERN. GIVEN THAT THE RECENT ECMWF HISTORY HAS BEEN
TO BACK OFF ON THE AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING DISTURBANCES FROM
UPSTREAM RIDGE DECAPITATIONS AND UNDERCUT AND LOOK MORE LIKE THE
GFS CLOSER TO GAME TIME...WILL TILT EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD THE GFS THIS ROUND FOR A MORE ZONAL...MORE QUICK BLIP
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...PENDING EXPECTED BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SOLUTIONS IN FUTURE RUNS.

FOR VETERANS DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
RUN 25 TO 45 DEGREES COLDER...REALLY...THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY.
CLAYTON AND RATON WILL BOTH BARELY BREAK FREEZING...WITH 40S
COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...TRANSITIONING INTO SOME 50S OVER CHAVES COUNTY. ACTION
WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN PLAINS 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE DAY. DIFFERENT STORY IN THE WEST ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STALLED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO LINE FROM RATON PASS AND INTERSTATE 25 EASTWARD
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN NEW MEXICO. BREEZY WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THOSE LOGGED ON MONDAY...WITH WESTERLY
BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. ANOTHER
COLD ONE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT OVER THE EAST...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
IN FOR CLAYTON...AND BROAD AREA OF TEENS FROM RATON TO
CLOVIS...WITH 20S AND LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE SET A PLACEHOLDER
FREEZE WATCH FOR EASTERN LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CHAVES...FOR TONIGHT AS THESE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTIES MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THIS MORNING WITHOUT BUMPING INTO
THE CHILLY 32.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE BROAD PATTERN...AS FLOW ALOFT
MAKES AGONIZING BACK TO ZONAL...FRONT REMAINS IN A HARD STALL OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND SOME INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPINGE ON ANY BENEFITS SOLAR
INSOLATION MAY HAVE OTHERWISE PROVIDED. EASTERN TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN LOCKED 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW MID NOVEMBER NORMALS...WHILE
THE WEST LOSES SOME GROUND BUT REMAINS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND UP OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH NEAR THE COLORADO LINE DURING THE
DAY...BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVING OVER THE INTENSE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EXPAND ISOLATED SNOW COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDE COVERAGE WILL NOT TRANSLATE
INTO MUCH SNOW...WITH SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND RATON PASS AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AGAIN...AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL HELP EASE THE COLD IN THE
EAST...BRINGING EASTERN POINTS UP TO A MERE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
MID NOVEMBER NORMALS...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS NEAR NORMAL.
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER...WITH THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS OF THE SNOWY VARIETY GENERALLY
FROM I 25 EAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND VALLEY RAINS
WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO SUMMITS IN THE WARMER AIR. WIDE
COVERAGE BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL KEEP LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE PICTURE...WITH AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. CONTINUED BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND HIGHER SLOPES NEAR THE COLORADO LINE...AND IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.

FOR FRIDAY...CONTINUED EASING OF THE COLD OVER THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES IMPROVING TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID NOVEMBER
NORMALS...WHILE THE WEST CONTINUES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHTER AS SPEEDY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COUPLES WITH EASTWARD SHIFT OF SURFACE LOW TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND CONSEQUENT PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD INTO
TEXAS. QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ZONAL SPEEDY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP CONTINUED SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH COVERAGE EXTENDING PRETTY
MUCH TO EVERYPLACE FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING MUCH OF THE STATE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID
NOVEMBER NORMALS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COLDEST IN THE EAST. SOME
REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH ALL BUT THE WEST REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
NORTHERN RAIN AND SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT PLOWS THROUGH THE
STATE AND PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EAST. DYNAMICS
WILL HAVE CLEARED INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY TO CLEAR SKIES OUT
SOMEWHAT...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN LINE EMBEDDED IN AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIPPING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

SHY

.FIRE WEATHER...
BITTERLY COLD AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOWED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE COLDER AIR MAY MAKE
A BRIEF PUSH WWD OVER GLORIETA PASS AND PERHAPS THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON THIS MORNING. AS WEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE LATE THIS
MORNING...THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A STRONGER PUSH WWD TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
DATE...WITH EVEN COLDER READINGS WEDNESDAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS WILL BREAK THROUGH GLORIETA PASS AND TIJERAS CANYON AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. STRONGER
EAST CANYON WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST WILL KEEP
VENTILATION RATES IN THE POOR CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS WEST OF THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE LEVEL
FOR MID NOVEMBER.

A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE DOME OF
COLD AIR OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT MOST AREAS FRIDAY...WITH
IMPROVING VENTILATION RATES EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE RACING EWD ON THE PACIFIC
JET. SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN COLORADO. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
EXACT PLACEMENT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING...HOWEVER...REGARDING A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES THAT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING W-E THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 5 TO 10
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CDFNT HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE
SOUTHEAST BORDER OF NM AT 0530Z. PEAK GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT INVOF THE BOUNDARY BUT STILL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
POSSIBLE AS BRUNT OF PRESSURE RISES PUSHES INTO TX. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH 12Z. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST NM/COLORADO
BORDER AS WELL AS AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AS LATEST RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHEAST
WIND TO DEVELOP AT KSAF AND INTO THE ABQ METRO...THOUGH NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. WIND COULD ACTUALLY BE NORTH AT KABQ PRIOR TO
12Z FOR A COUPLE OF HRS IF IT BREAKS THROUGH AT KSAF FIRST.
STRONGER EAST WIND POSSIBLE IN 24 HRS/TUESDAY NIGHT/ AS THE COLD
AIR IN THE PLAINS IS REINFORCED. OTHERWISE VFR WEST OF THE RGV.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 54 23 52 24 / 0 0 5 10
CUBA............................ 58 30 54 26 / 0 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 62 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 61 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 64 30 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 32 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 50 20 48 18 / 0 5 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 34 49 28 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 52 27 41 21 / 0 0 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 23 44 20 / 5 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 40 19 37 15 / 5 5 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 16 41 11 / 5 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 53 23 46 22 / 5 5 5 10
MORA............................ 52 23 40 18 / 0 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 60 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 54 31 46 25 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 30 49 25 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 36 56 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 39 59 33 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 36 60 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 38 58 33 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 37 62 30 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 39 58 34 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 68 40 65 34 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 32 53 26 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 60 33 55 25 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 22 46 14 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 24 37 17 / 0 0 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 33 53 27 / 0 0 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 36 56 30 / 0 0 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 57 32 48 28 / 0 0 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 34 12 25 8 / 5 5 5 20
RATON........................... 40 15 28 11 / 5 5 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 45 16 31 11 / 5 5 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 20 34 15 / 0 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 33 7 22 7 / 5 5 10 10
ROY............................. 37 15 26 11 / 5 5 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 45 21 31 16 / 5 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 22 34 17 / 0 5 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 18 30 15 / 5 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 42 19 31 16 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 44 20 32 17 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 48 24 36 20 / 0 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 53 30 42 26 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 54 28 42 25 / 0 0 5 5
ELK............................. 57 31 45 26 / 0 0 5 10

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ533>537.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ538>540.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ538-539.

SHY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1052 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...646 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014...
.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY WAS JUST EXPANDED TO INCLUDE QUAY...CURRY...AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. ARCTIC FRONT IS PLUNGING IN AT A HIGH VELOCITY
WITH BLOWING DUST BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM.
TUCUMCARI IS ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO 47 MPH. WILL KEEP THE END
TIME THE SAME AS THE OTHER WIND ADVISORY SEGMENT...11 PM.
TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THOUGH THE DUST WILL
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD AIR WILL BE HERE TO STAY ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY NOT BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS
PICKED UP QUITE A BIT OF DUST IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS WINDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. SINCE THE ARCTIC AIR IS
SHALLOW...THERE IS CONCERN THAT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA...BUT COULD SQUIRT THOUGH THE GAPS INTO
RATON AS WELL AS MOVE INTO CLAYTON. WILL ISSUE A SHORT-FUSED WIND
ADVISORY WITH DUST IMPACTS THROUGH 06Z. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP NEAR 1
MILE.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER TEMPS REMAIN ON TAP BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
UPGRADED THE FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES TO FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS RESPECTIVELY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...SO THERE SHOULD BE NO QUESTION THAT MUCH OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SEE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE AIR WILL ALLOW IT TO MIX BACK OUT TO SOME
DEGREE ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE COLD AIR WILL BUILD
BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BUT THESE AREAS WILL FINALLY SEE
SOME RELIEF ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERN AREAS WILL FEEL LITTLE
EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. MEANWHILE...MORE THAN 80 HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM.

A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING MUCH MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS...SO HAVE LEFT SOME LOW GRADE POPS IN THE FORECAST. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS THOUGH.

THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER SHOWING A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. RATHER...IT HAS COME IN LINE WITH
THE GFS...SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THOUGH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPS BACK TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCALIZED CRITICAL STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT IS ON
NEW MEXICO/S DOORSTEP AND WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A RIBBON OF
STRONG WIND WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND TRY TO WASH UP TO THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN 20 TO 25
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PUSH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME UP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE WEST WITH NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AREAS. WIND SPEEDS WONT BE
QUITE A BREEZY COMPARED TO TODAY BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WILL SEE SOME MODERATE BREEZES. THEREFORE...VENTILATION RATES
WILL BE DECENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LITTLE
MORE MARGINAL WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE ANOTHER RESURGENCE AND TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MTN GAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COOLER AND LOWER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL SPIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT NOT NEARLY AS
COLD COMPARED TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST. VENTILATION RATES WILL REMAIN
POOR ACROSS THE EAST AND MUCH BETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL
AREAS. THIS IS PRIMARILY A DRY FRONTAL OR SYSTEM PASSAGE SO NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SORT OF WETTING PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER WEST. THIS IS WHEN VENTILATION WILL
BE MUCH LESS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT BETTER ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS DUE TO HIGHER WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
LOOK TO BE NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE READINGS.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON FRIDAY AS AN OVERALL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW TAKES OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST BUT BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR. PERHAPS SOME MEASURABLE DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS COME INTO MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN/GFS MODELS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE LEVELS.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ533>537.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ527-528-530-531-534>536.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ538-539.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

105 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS WITH SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY...TRENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MADE ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO GRIDS...TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH BOUNCY
TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTMENTS ARE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MILDER
FORECAST MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT.

SHALLOW DECOUPLING LAYER IS COMPETING WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS WARM LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL. THIS IS MAKING HOURLY
TEMPERATURES QUITE FINICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY...AND LAKE PLAIN VERSUS
TERRAIN. THE OTHER TRICKY THING IS THE MARINE LAYER MOISTURE
COMING UP VIA SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA IF
LOOKING AT 925MB RH...AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF THAT SUGGESTED
IN THE 18Z GFS. RUC IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP IT AND MORE CONFINED TO
POCONOS. IN THE END...THE LAYER APPEARS THIN ENOUGH TO WHICH EVEN
JUST A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNSLOPING OF THE SSE TO SSW FLOW TUESDAY
/WHICH WILL OCCUR IN FINGER LAKES TO NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR/ SHOULD
MANAGE TO ERADICATE THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUCCESS
HANGING AGAINST THE POCONOS-SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...AND AT LEAST FOR
A TIME THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AS WELL BY MORNING /THOUGH IT WILL
TEND TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RDGG AND SW FLOW TNGT WILL KEEP GRNLY CLR SKIES OVER THE AREA.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A DVLPG MARINE LYR FCST...ESP BY THE
NAM WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLDS INTO THE SE ZONES LATE TNGT AND EARLY
TUE. DO NOT XPCT ENUF MOISTURE FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME AND CLDS MAY
NOT ADVANCE PAST THE WYOMING VLY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DVLG DEEP TROF SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD THRU THE PD. MEANWHILE...CLSD
UPR LOW DRFTS OFF THE EAST CST INCRSG THE LL MOISTURE...ESP OVER
THE SE ZONES. FOR TUE...RDG PRETTY MUCH HOLDS FAST BUT SLOWLY BRKS
DWON FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE ADVANCING TROF. SFC FNT STILL WELL
OF TO THE WEST AND DOES NOT ADVANCE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFT 12Z
WED. AHD OF THE FNT...SOME LL MOISTURE FROM THE CSTL LOW IS PULLED
NWRD INTO THE AREA...ESP OVER NEPA BRING CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE TUE NGT.

CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST ON WED BUT LE IS SLOW TO BEGIN WITH THE DRY
AIR AND VERY SHEARED FLOW AS A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE BHD
THE FNT. BY THU...WEAK UPR WV MVG THRU ALONG WITH H8 AIR THAT HAS
COOLED TO -10C MAYBE ENUF TO TRIGGER SOME LGT LE OVER THE FAR
NORTH LATE THU...WHEN FLOW BEGINS TO ALIGN A BIT BETTER.

MODEL GUID IN RSNBL AGREEMENT AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
20S BY THU MRNG...AND ONLY INTO THE 30S MOST PLACE ON THU AFTN...A
GOOD 5 DEGREES BLO NRML FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MINOR TWEEKS. MUCH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE MID
WEEK CDFNT...WITH LES GETTING ORGANIZED THU NGT WITH PSSG OF
ANOTHER S/WV AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THE FCST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFYING CNTRL
U.S. TROF POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A MORE WDSPRD SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
EVENT...BUT WILL STICK WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE HPC POPS FOR NOW.
HIGHS THRU THE PD GNRLY IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS FROM KAVP AND KBGM. WHILE SOME
LOWER RESTRICTIONS HAVE FORMED DOWN NEAR THE DELMARVA, WITH A
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IT APPEARS THESE SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS.

MOST TERMINALS SSE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING GENERALLY 4-8 KTS...BECOMING
S 8-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...NOTABLE EXCEPTION AND DEVELOPING
LLWS FOR KSYR- KRME...WITH LOCALIZED EFFECTS KEEPING ESE WIND 5-7
KTS OVERNIGHT VERSUS LOW LEVEL JET FROM SSW 40-45 KTS AROUND 1500
TO 2000 FEET AGL. KELM ALSO TO EXPERIENCE LLWS OVERNIGHT. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFICS/TIMING. LLWS GOES AWAY BY 13Z...AND SURFACE WIND
KSYR- KRME WILL BE SE 8-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS DUE TO MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING FRONT.

WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA WED MRNG AS COLD FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU/FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN ESPECIALLY KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1146 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACCOMPANIES THE WARM AIR. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY A
THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND AT LEAST
INITIALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND ALSO
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THERE WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...AS FORECAST
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO BRING THEM INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS. DONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT
DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT SETTING US UP FOR A WARM TODAY TOMORROW. ALSO TWEAKED HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUESDAY IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
AREAS FROM ROCHESTER AND THE GENESEE VALLEY ACROSS TO OSWEGO AND
WATERTOWN.

RATHER DRY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF A LARGE BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES...ACROSS
NORTHERN IL BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAST THE SOO BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT REALLY DEEPENING MUCH IF AT ALL TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
WILL REMAIN THERE AND NOT SPREAD SOUTH MUCH. THE RESULT IS A
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.20 OR 0.30 AND NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS SOME ISSUES
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CREATES A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK INLAND.
WILL DISCOUNT THIS. LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWS NOTHING
AS WELL GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL START OF
WITH A STANDARD DECREASING TREND AND THEN INCREASE TEMPERATURES
TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 45KTS NEAR
3000FT....SCRAPE AWAY AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SELECT
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30KT RANGE
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DEEP UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS SSW AND NOT IDEAL
FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT.

FOR TUESDAY...VETERANS DAY LOOKS ABOUT AS NICE AS YOU CAN GET FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH NOT RECORD SETTING...MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S...MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS AND A LITTLE LOWER NEAR THE LAKES. ONLY
PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY FOR FAR WESTERN NY.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG EITHER...WITH MOST
GUSTS GENERALLY ABOUT 30 MPH OR LESS. THE IMMANENT COLD FRONT WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY EVENING
WILL LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING WILL START OFF
UNSEASONABLY WARM...BUT THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ABRUPTLY COLDER AIR.
NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF CONSENSUS TIMING BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM W-E IN THE 06Z TO 15Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT WILL
BE FURTHER FROM LAKE MOISTURE AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE.

FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BURST OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY OR DROP OFF GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S. PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT SHOULD BE RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY...AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS OFFSET BY LAKE
INDUCED CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO -5C
TO -8C. EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE LAKES...WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MORE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.

PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THE KEY FEATURE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE STILL IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE. ALTHOUGH THIS MAKES THE
SPECIFICS HARD TO PIN DOWN...THERE ARE SOME THINGS GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE UPON. WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY A MODEST SPREAD IN GUIDANCE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
WHEN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE BECOMES KEY. THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL DISRUPT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

MID-LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE FAIRLY DRY ORIGINS...BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -10C TO -12C AND INCREASE LAKE
INSTABILITY. ALSO...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE MODEST AND WELL ALIGNED
FROM 06Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THU OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ABOUT 6
HOURS LATER ON LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR A
SINGULAR LAKE BAND WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD
JUST SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS
BAND MAY FORM IS STILL SUBJECT TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS THE TUG
HILL. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE BUFFALO AND/OR ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

QPF GUIDANCE OF LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES A GOOD
STARTING POINT FOR THIS...BUT CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON LAKE
EFFECT BANDS SO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE. IT IS
POSSIBLE ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED IN A LOCALIZED
BAND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/POSITION/OCCURRENCE LEAVES FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FAR SHY OF THE 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD. WILL CONTINUE TO
DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BANDING IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
SIMPLY BE CHILLY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL WELL SHORT OF SETTING ANY
RECORDS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM) DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL
HAPPEN WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. IN GENERAL...THE STEADIEST SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TRADITIONAL LAKE BELTS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...BUT EXPECT
INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED
MULTI-BANDED LAKE SNOWS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE AGREES THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL EAST OF
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT
IN DRIER AIR...BUT WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND
-10C...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE BUT ON A MORE LOCALIZED BASIS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SSW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF/WHEN/WHERE
SNOW WOULD DEVELOP WITH LAKE ENHANCED BANDS DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH A GENERIC CHANCE POP FORECAST
FOR NOW.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES.
LOCAL LAKE SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH IFR.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON LAKE ERIE...BUT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE
GREATER WAVE ACTION IN CANADIAN WATERS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON LAKE ONTARIO
INITIAL EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AT THE NORTHEAST END...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE GREATER WAVE
ACTION TO REMAIN IN CANADIAN WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKES AS COLD AIR RUSHES BACK INTO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

255 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A COLD AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: STACKED LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST OFF SAV/CHS
COAST WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NE AS IT UNDERGOES MODEST
WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NE AND THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A
SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA FROM THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT
RDU... WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE TO THE EAST (DUE TO LONGER-
DURATION CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WELL PAST SUNSET CUTTING BACK A BIT
ON RADIATIONAL COOLING) AND VERY LOW CHANCES WEST (WHERE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SPILLING IN). STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT FOG COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S MODEL OUTPUT... BUT
NEVERTHELESS THE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE... WITH THE EXITING CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF. WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE WRN PIEDMONT BUT RETAIN
PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 40S WEST
TO AROUND 50/LOW 50S EAST.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER BUT WITH A RETURN OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC WED... WITH ONLY A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE 30-40 M ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND
WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SOME COOLING IN THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DROPS IN... THE INFLUX
OF THE BULK OF THE COLDER AND DENSER AIR IS LIKELY TO BE HAMPERED BY
THE TALLER SRN APPALACHIANS... AND AS SUCH EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO
SPILL IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE... THICKNESSES AND CURRENT UPSTREAM TEMPS ALONG WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS FROM 69 NW TO 76 SE. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT... WITH THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN EARNEST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850
MB FLOW (AHEAD OF AN INCOMING 850 MB TROUGH) RIDING UP AND OVER THE
DEEPENING SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE LATE WED NIGHT. LOWS FROM AROUND 40 NW TO
UPPER 40S SE. -GIH

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: APPROACH OF POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED
60-80 METER HEIGHT FALLS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY OUT-OF-PHASE
PRECEDING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN TRANSIENT MOISTENING ACROSS CENTRAL
NC DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...MODELS DEPICT WEAK
LIFT/FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL NC...SPLIT WITH THE BETTER NORTHERN
STREAM DYNAMICS REMAINING TO THE NORTH OVER DELMARVA REGION...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A GLANCING SHOT TO
SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN NC. SO ITS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THAT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH TIME...WITH NOW BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOWING
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS EASTERN NC...WHERE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAK...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH LATEST ROUND OF
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LACK OF SATURATION IN THE -12 TO -15C LAYER AND
BL TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST.
CONCERNING FORECAST HIGHS...WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER MAY NEED TO
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO
LOWER/MID 50S SE.

DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 700-850MB TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z FRIDAY... WILL
SCATTER OUT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LOWS RANGING FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 30 SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: CENTRAL NC WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...FOUND AT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO BE 50 TO 55 METERS BELOW NORMAL WILL
SUPPORT SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YOUNG
SEASON...AVERAGING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH PERIODIC
CIRRUS FLAREUPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET COULD
INFLUENCE BOTH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN 40S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER.
PROVIDED CIRRUS ARE THIN AND INCONSEQUENTIAL...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH NEAR LOWS RECORDS...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT ROTATES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND
THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN US SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AS ATTENDANT
POLAR FRONT SURGES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GOM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY... ALONG A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 8KFT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER...IF
ONSET OF PRECIP SPEEDS UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...COINCIDENT WITH
NEAR FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...COULD SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH SOME RAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING...AUGMENTED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OUT AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO LOWER 50S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE A CATEGORY TOO
HIGH IF CLOUDS AND RAIN PREDOMINATE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NEAR
RECORD LOW MAXES FOR THE DATE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH CLEARING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SUN NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS ANOTHER MODIFIED
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
TERMINALS... A RESULT OF ONSHORE (FROM THE ENE) LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF THE KSAV COAST. THE WEAKENING
OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NE AND THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CIGS ARE UP TO VFR AT
RDU... AND JUST ROSE FROM IFR TO VFR AT FAY. ONLY RWI IS STILL IFR
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS... LIKELY CLIMBING
TO MVFR BY 21Z AND TO VFR BY 00Z. GSO/INT ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO
WITH UNLIMITED SKIES AND VSBYS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STARTING
OVERNIGHT... AFTER 07Z... AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM... DUE
TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE AT RDU... WHERE THE HRRR SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. AT FAY/RWI... LINGERING CLOUDS INTO THE NIGHT WILL CUT
BACK ON RADIATIONAL COOLING... AND AT INT/GSO... DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER... ALL LEADING TO LOWER FOG CHANCES AT THOSE FOUR TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY AFTER ABOUT 13Z WED... WITH SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NNW RISING SLIGHTLY TO 6-10 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
WED EVENING... ALTHOUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WED WILL BRING NNW SURFACE
WINDS AROUND TO NE AS COLD AIR SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH. A FEW
ENHANCED GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WED
EVENING/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL THEN QUICKLY OVERRUN THIS COOLER AIR...
CAUSING A CHANCE OF HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CIGS (BASED AT 2500-
3500 AGL) TO DEVELOP STARTING EARLY THU MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THU EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.-GIH

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SAT MORNING (11/15)
AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN (11/16):

11/15 RECORD LOW 11/16 RECORD LOW MAX

GSO: 20 DEGREES IN 1969 37 DEGREES IN 1920
RDU: 21 DEGREES IN 1969 41 DEGREES IN 1916
FAY: 22 DEGREES IN 1942 44 DEGREES IN 1976

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

225 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THU AND THU NIGHT: THE PASSAGE OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SLIGHTLY OUT-OF-PHASE
PRECEDING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACROSS THE SE STATES...WILL
PROMOTE BOTH LIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN SSW ATOP THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS/WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SC. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT
THU...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL FURTHER DEEPEN/BE OVERSPREAD
BY A COLDER LAYER OF MID LEVEL SATURATION BY THU EVENING...AS THE
CORE OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~60 METERS/12 HR AT H5)
MOVE OVERHEAD.

BUFR FORECAST SOUNDS ARE NOT AS ROBUST IN THEIR DEPICTION OF A
COHERENT DEEP LAYER OF SATURATION/CLOUD LAYER...SO TAKEN
LITERALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE SPOTTY THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED OWING TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE BERGERON/MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. THE LACK OF MORE THAN FLEETING AND
BERGERON/ICE NUCLEATION WOULD ALSO LESSEN THE ALREADY NEGLIGIBLE
THREAT FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...DESPITE THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR (CHASING THE MOISTURE). MODEL QPF HAS NOT
SURPRISINGLY BEEN REDUCED BY ABOUT HALF...WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH THE DEEPENING/COOLING MID LEVEL
MOIST LAYER. CLEARING WILL OTHERWISE SPREAD EAST LATE...INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND 06Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 12Z.
HIGHS THU...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

FRI THROUGH SAT: THE MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH WILL SPRAWL SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY FRI...TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
SAT...THEN OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE
PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON FRI...AND MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. PROVIDED CIRRUS ARE THIN AND INCONSEQUENTIAL AS
FORECAST FOR FRI NIGHT...LOWS SAT MORNING WILL BE NEAR RECORDS - IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S - GIVEN PROJECTED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
BETWEEN 1280-1285 METERS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON: ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND TRAILING 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH AT PEAK
STRENGTH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL PLUNGE FROM
ALBERTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. BETWEEN THAT ARCTIC
HIGH AND THE MODIFIED ONE RETREATING FROM THE NE US...CYCLOGENESIS
AND PRECEDING COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM THE WESTERN GOM
TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD. THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE
INITIAL ARCTIC RIDGE AXIS...AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1300 METERS SAT NIGHT...WOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS IN
SW FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER...PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT AND
DEVELOPING GULF LOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE INSTEAD
EXPECTED...WITH A LEVELING OFF OR SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE.
THESE LOW TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITION TO HOW QUICKLY LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN RAMPS UP EARLY
SUNDAY...WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING BUT RAIN OCCURS
WITH THIS SYSTEM (IE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW AS TOP-DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS AT THE ONSET...AND/OR SUBSEQUENT BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONCE DEEP SATURATION IS REACHED).

REGARDLESS...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING AS
THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY...SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES FROM ONLY
AROUND 40 DEGREES OR SO IN THE TRIAD...TO LOWER 50S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE A CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF
CLOUDS AND RAIN PREDOMINATE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR THE DATE. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SUNSHINE AND LESS CHILLY CONDITIONS (THAN SUNDAY)
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...DESPITE CAA...ON MON.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SAT MORNING (11/15)
AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN (11/16):

11/15 RECORD LOW 11/16 RECORD LOW MAX

GSO: 20 DEGREES IN 1969 37 DEGREES IN 1920
RDU: 21 DEGREES IN 1969 41 DEGREES IN 1916
FAY: 22 DEGREES IN 1942 44 DEGREES IN 1976

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

115 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A COLD AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST OFF SAVANNAH
GA... AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NE AS IT UNDERGOES
MODEST WEAKENING. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
OUTPUT POINTS TO VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT WESTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA... AND HAVE HELD ONTO JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE EXTREME ERN/SE CWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HAD A ROUGH TIME MAKING IT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 1... DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE
WITHIN THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
PERSIST... ESPECIALLY WITH THE GROWTH OF THE MIXED LAYER WITH
HEATING... AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. STILL
EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST TO VARIABLY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY CENTRAL... AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEST. THIS GOOD HEATING IN THE
WEST AND TEMPS ALREADY HAVING WARMED TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
NECESSITATES BUMPING UP TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE WRN CWA TO 71-75...
WHILE RETAINING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. -GIH

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
OUT TO SEA...WITH WINDS SLOWLY CONTINUING TO BACK AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THE FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK..HOWEVER...AND LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA MAY CAUSE SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF
PROBABILITIES. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT RISES SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE COASTAL WAVE
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US. BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUG THE GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY SLOWED BY THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO BEND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND FURTHER DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE
COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS INITIALLY
SHALLOW AND SHOULD JUST RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SAT MORNING (11/15)
AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN (11/16):

11/15 RECORD LOW 11/16 RECORD LOW MAX

GSO: 20 DEGREES IN 1969 37 DEGREES IN 1920
RDU: 21 DEGREES IN 1969 41 DEGREES IN 1916
FAY: 22 DEGREES IN 1942 44 DEGREES IN 1976

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

935 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED
STATES. SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM
SHIFTING THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF SOME SNOW TO THE AREA...PERHAPS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK (2500-3500 FEET) IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. RECENT GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE NOT SEEMED TO
CAPTURE THIS LAYER OF RH VERY WELL (THE 00Z NAM WAS A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT)...BUT THE 01Z RAP IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SATURATION
INDICATED AT 900MB. THE RAP/HRRR WERE USED AS GUIDANCE FOR SOME
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP AND SKY COVER
FORECASTS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
COLD WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BROAD MEAN TROF WITH AN ELONGATED CENTERED ORIENTED E-W
FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. DUMBBELL EFFECT TO TAKE
PLACE AS INITIAL S/W PIVOTS INTO SE CANADA THE NEXT WESTERN S/W
AXIS TO WORK INTO THE UPR MS VLY TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF
ARCTIC ORIGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ILN/S 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE
AROUND 900 MB TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LATEST
VISIBLE SATL IMGRY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER OHIO BACK THRU INDIANA
INTO ILLINOIS. SOME HOLES DEVELOPED IN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE BUT
LATEST SATL TRENDS SHOWING THESE HOLES FILLING IN. 12Z GFS SOLN IS
TOO QUICK WITH DRYING AND PREVIOUS RUN WAS ALREADY NOT VERIFYING
WELL. NAM SOLN HOLDS ONTO MOISTURE LONGER...PERHAPS ONLY ALLOWING
A FEW MORE BREAKS INTO THE SW LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN DO
NOT EXPECT QUICK CLEARING AT NIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ONTO
THE CLOUDS LONGER AND ADJUST THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE COLD...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S WEST TO THE UPPER 20S
EAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH UPSTREAM
S/W TO ROTATE SE. ASSOCIATED SHEARED VORT AXIS TO MOVE THRU THE
REGION THURSDAY. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE ON THURSDAY. A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND DRY LAYER BETWEEN MID CLOUDS AND LOWER CLOUDS LEANS
TOWARD A DRY SOLN. CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SE.

EXPECT ONLY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE SW. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MS VLY
FRIDAY AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME EROSION
OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE SW FRIDAY AND THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. COLD HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS. LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHING EAST EARLY SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW MAY RESULT IN
MORE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE RAIN IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK OF MOISTURE
SHOULD PRODUCE DRY WEATHER.

WELL BELOW NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COUPLED WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW CARRYING COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR BENEATH SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EVEN
COLDER READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COMPARES TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S.

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS FILLED IN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE 3000-3500 FOOT RANGE WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
AROUND 2500-3000 FEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PREVAILING MVFR
CEILINGS ARE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL MID-TO-LATE MORNING THURSDAY.
THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH WNW FLOW GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1251 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST STILL DOMINATES. THIS WILL GIVE US ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND EVEN WARMER SOUTHERLY BREEZES THAT WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THEIR
SIGNIFICANT COLD BIAS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS
WARM UP TODAY. STILL...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...AND HAVE
NOT BEEN MIXING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOWN WHICH IS WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MODEL IS CORRECT IN SHOWING THIS TO
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY WITH MIXING...BUT MORE SO OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WILL AGAIN LOWER THE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE GENEROUS NAM AND GFS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHIFTING THE VERY DRY AIR MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS ALONG
WITH DRIER FUEL MOISTURE...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG.
THUS...WILL ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN COORDINATION WITH
STATE AGENCIES. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT AS RED
FLAG NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LONG ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND MUCH OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MOISTURE INFLOW ON THE MODEST SIDE...WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WE EXPECT BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN...THE REALLY
COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL SEE RAPID PRESSURE RISES UNDER
INFLUENCE OF A CONTINENTAL SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALL
THE WAY OVER IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE A NON EVENT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE TRAJECTORIES IN THE
LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT DROPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES REALLY PLUMMET BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHEN WE GET -14C AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALSO REINFORCE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARDS AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIRMASS NEARS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER 30S WILL BE A
STRETCH ANYWHERE IN THE CWA FRIDAY. MIDWEEK MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH CPC GIVING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE 500 MB TROF IN THE EAST...WE REMAIN MOSTLY IN BOARD CYCLONIC
500 MB FLOW. THE 12Z ECWMF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION OF LATE...IN THAT THE DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOT
AS SHARP...AND LESS EFFICIENT IN PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH...FOR
A LONGER PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...TRIED TO STAY MORE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOLDING MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LONGER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 850
MBS.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN INCREASING POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL PLAY A SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE. REINFORCING COLD
AIR COMES OUR WAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AGAIN HOLD ONTO
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND POPS LONGER THAN GUIDANCE BUT LOWER DEW
POINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY HELP BREAK UP THOSE CLOUDS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 23Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL SPREAD
BRIEF MVFR CIGS INTO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 03Z...AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z...WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

855 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CRW VWP ALREADY SHOWING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION WEAKENING...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR THRU MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET AND LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 02Z...A CKB-CRW LINE BY 05Z...AND
THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS 2000-3000 FEET WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AFFECTING WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 10Z...BUT SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
END AS THE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY UP TO 2
HOURS...AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS ELEVATION CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR.

UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AFTER 09Z...NO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

539 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CRW VWP ALREADY SHOWING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION WEAKENING...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR THRU MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET AND LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 02Z...A CKB-CRW LINE BY 05Z...AND
THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS 2000-3000 FEET WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AFFECTING WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 10Z...BUT SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
END AS THE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY UP TO 2
HOURS...AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS ELEVATION CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AFTER 09Z...NO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

410 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ON VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE LAST DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST STILL DOMINATES. THIS WILL GIVE US ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND EVEN WARMER SOUTHERLY BREEZES THAT WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THEIR
SIGNIFICANT COLD BIAS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS
WARM UP TODAY. STILL...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...AND HAVE
NOT BEEN MIXING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOWN WHICH IS WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MODEL IS CORRECT IN SHOWING THIS TO
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY WITH MIXING...BUT MORE SO OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WILL AGAIN LOWER THE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE GENEROUS NAM AND GFS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHIFTING THE VERY DRY AIR MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS ALONG
WITH DRIER FUEL MOISTURE...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG.
THUS...WILL ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN COORDINATION WITH
STATE AGENCIES. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT AS RED
FLAG NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO CHANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. DECOUPLING OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AT CRW...CKB AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE AT HTS...COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 1500 FT AGL...WILL BRING LLWS TIL 12Z AT THOSE TAF SITES. THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL WEAKEN BY 12Z...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH A CKB-CRW LINE BY 06Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS JUST REACHING
THE OHIO AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE LEFT MVFR OUT OF TAFS THIS PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

DATE TUE 11/11/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FRONT PASSING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

359 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ON VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. DECOUPLING OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AT CRW...CKB AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE AT HTS...COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 1500 FT AGL...WILL BRING LLWS TIL 12Z AT THOSE TAF SITES. THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL WEAKEN BY 12Z...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH A CKB-CRW LINE BY 06Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS JUST REACHING
THE OHIO AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE LEFT MVFR OUT OF TAFS THIS PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FRONT PASSING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

758 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED WINDS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST WERE DROPPING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE HRRR SHOWS TEMPS IN THAT REGION FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TEENS.

SKIES ARE CURRENTLY OVERCAST...AND CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK ANY TIME SOON.

GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING ON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIE
DOWN LATER TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
STRATO-CU DECK SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD... WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. THOSE ON APPROACH TO AIRFIELDS ACROSS SRN OK
AND WRN N TX THIS EVENING... A FEW INSTANCES OF LIGHT SLEET MAY
OCCUR... BUT SHOULD HAVE NO MAJOR IMPACT TO TRAFFIC.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A POLAR
HIGH SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COMPACT UPPER WAVE HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST OK THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY FALL IN ISOLATED AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN A PERSISTENT COLD AIRMASS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
TO ECLIPSE FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY NOON
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN MUCH OF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A SECOND MORE POTENT
STORM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE HEELS OF A
SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...A DEEP
COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS. AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
INCREASES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ONE OR MORE BANDS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY PICK UP AN INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
ROADS IN SOME AREAS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. THIS WILL MAKE SNOW/ICE MELT FAIRLY SLOW FOR AREAS THAT SEE
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 21 33 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 20 33 18 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 23 36 21 43 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 12 27 13 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 19 32 16 36 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 24 37 22 41 / 10 0 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

131 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIN CIRRUS ALL THERE IS OVER THE AREA...AND TEMPS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS AT YOUR LOCATION. MOST
WRN/CENTRAL SITES RUNNING IN THE M-U40S...BUT CALM AIR OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY FROM KSEG SOUTHWARD HALPING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
MAXIMIZE AND TEMPS IN THE M-U30S. EXPECT THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO
BE MUCH LIKE THIS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT AND SLOW DROP IN TEMPS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT A
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. THE
BREEZIEST AND WARMEST CONDS RELATIVE TO NORMAL SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BENEATH SFC RIDGE AXIS.

ANY EARLY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. LATEST MDL RH TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS
UPWARD A BIT BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS FROM RAP AND 00Z NAM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMTH IN THE 925-850MB LYR AND EXPECTED MSUNNY
SKIES...MAY YET BE TOO CONSERVATIVE.

WILL MAINTAIN POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

THICKER CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY LATE
EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY
12Z WED.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...AS SPRAWLING
1050MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS.
MEAN RIDGING ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO NWRN NOAM WILL HELP
SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU THRU
MON AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE ERN U.S. THE COLD
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NW MTNS AND WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS...THERE
ARE DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THAT
ADDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BROADER PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE THU NGT AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAMES.

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BREEZY NIGHT OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND CLEAR SKIES. FAR EASTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...AS
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO THE EAST...AND TEMPS ARE OVER 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ACROSS THE WEST.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING. MAINLY SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WED. HARD TO SEE MUCH MOISTURE. DID PUT A SHOWER IN
AT BFD LATE.

LLWS IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL LAYER INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS...ABOVE
THE GENERALLY LIGHT SSE SFC FLOW. SEEING THIS ON OUR VAD WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT WITH REDUCTIONS LIKELY...MAINLY LATE AT
NIGHT. SHRA LIKELY ACROSS THE NW LATE IN THE EVENING...SPREADING
SE TO NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIZZLE POSS SE.
POSS LLWS WEST.

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST.

THU...PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS KBFD.

SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1253 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR AND TRANQUIL CONDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING UNDER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. IR LOOP AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATE
THERE WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE
NORTH...AS WAA ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

RADIATIONAL COOLING...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR STREAMING
NWWD OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC...MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAWN
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY LOWEST IN
THIS REGION AND LATEST RAP/HRRR SFC RH IMPLY THIS REGION WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO AM FOG.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS UP TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE. LIGHTER SERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAD COOLING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE U30S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT A
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. THE
BREEZIEST AND WARMEST CONDS RELATIVE TO NORMAL SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BENEATH SFC RIDGE AXIS.

WILL MAINTAIN POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BREEZY NIGHT OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND CLEAR SKIES. FAR EASTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...AS
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO THE EAST...AND TEMPS ARE OVER 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ACROSS THE WEST.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING. MAINLY SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WED. HARD TO SEE MUCH MOISTURE. DID PUT A SHOWER IN
AT BFD LATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST.

THU...PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS KBFD.

SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

959 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LATEST HRRR HIRES
SOLUTION MODEL SUGGEST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR COLD/FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS REACH THE 32 DEGREE
MARK. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
IS HELPING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN OVER THAT AREA TO ABOUT MIDNIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND AWAY OF THE REGION. WILL ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF PEARSALL TO SEGUIN
TO SCHULENBURG LINE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 20-24 HOURS BEFORE SKIES FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES TO AROUND
5KFT AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY FOR
ANY PRECIP. OTHERWISE...BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED
A LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE BACK OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. EARLIER NAM AND HI-RES MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SOME
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS NO LONGER SHOW
IT. THIS IS REASONABLE AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW AND SUFFICIENT
FOR ONLY CLOUD FORMATION AND MAINTENANCE. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
AND ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WEST OF I-35. MANY AREAS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
THAT STAYED ABOVE FREEZING LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FEW SPOTS THAT STAYED
ABOVE FREEZING IN GILLESPIE AND KERR COUNTIES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WEST OF
I-35 IN HAYS...TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES WILL HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
THE AUSTIN METRO AREA WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WANES ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF TEXAS
RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONLY ABOUT
10 DEGREES OR SO DURING THE DAY DUE CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE
MORNING AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY AND COMBINED WITH DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
AND I-35. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SPREADING TO ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ENDING RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OCCUR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FLOW
OFF THE GULF RETURNS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 34 44 30 48 37 / 10 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 33 45 27 49 35 / 10 - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 33 46 29 51 37 / 10 - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 30 41 27 48 34 / 10 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 34 47 31 52 38 / 20 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 31 42 27 48 35 / 10 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 47 27 50 35 / 10 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 33 45 29 49 36 / 10 - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 34 45 30 50 38 / 10 10 - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 35 47 30 51 39 / 10 - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 36 48 31 51 39 / 20 - - - 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BLANCO...BURNET...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...
KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

755 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
IS HELPING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN OVER THAT AREA TO ABOUT MIDNIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND AWAY OF THE REGION. WILL ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF PEARSALL TO SEGUIN
TO SCHULENBURG LINE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 34 44 30 48 37 / 10 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 33 45 27 49 35 / 10 - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 33 46 29 51 37 / 10 - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 30 41 27 48 34 / 10 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 34 47 31 52 38 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 31 42 27 48 35 / 10 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 47 27 50 35 / 10 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 33 45 29 49 36 / 10 - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 34 45 30 50 38 / 10 10 - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 35 47 30 51 39 / 10 - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 36 48 31 51 39 / 20 - - - 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BLANCO...BURNET...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1112 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. WILL MAKE THE
APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NPW WHICH REMAINS FOR THE FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

UPDATE...
GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST DATA AVAILABLE...HAVE ELECTED
TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE SUBSTANTIVE AMOUNTS OF DUST ARE BEING
LIFTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...THAT AREA HAS BEEN A FAIR BIT DRIER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...HERE IN
LUBBOCK...MOST OF THE DUST SHOULD HAVE ORIGINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE OVERLY DRAMATIC THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE A HAZE IN THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
D4 DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERIST...VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO NEAR 1
MILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE MESONET
REPORTS THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
MIXING...SUSPECT HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOUTH PLAINS. IF YOU MOW YOUR LAWN
TONIGHT...YOU MAY NOT HAVE TO SWEEP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A WELL
DEFINED HABOOB IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BLOWING DUST MAY TRIGGER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE
HOURS ALTHOUGH MORE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY HELP KEEP THE
DUST LEVELS DOWN A BIT AT OUR TWO TERMINALS. NEVERTHELESS...INVOF
THE FRONT...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
WITH LOCALLY PRONOUNCED WIND SHEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...STRONG DRY AND WARM WESTERLY COMPONENT
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AS SURFACE LOW EDGES
FURTHER SOUTH AND GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. WE ARE HITTING A FEW
MINUTES OF RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA THOUGH
LATEST ERC LEVELS INDICATE A MORE MARGINAL THREAT. THEN...A STIFF
BLUE NORTHER WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATE
THIS EVENING CAUSING A VERY DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS. AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW A LINE OF BLOWING DUST IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
COMING OFF SOURCE REGIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL POSE A BIG RISK FOR BLOWING DUST TONIGHT BUT WE
HAVE ADDED SOME MENTION OF DUST FOR IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT. AND WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LATEST HRRR TRENDS SUPPORT PASSAGE AT KCDS BY 03Z AND KLBB BY 05Z
WHILE ALSO SHOWING STRONGER SPEEDS FURTHER WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. FREEZE
WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT REMAIN APPROPRIATE.
HIGHEST SURFACE PRESSURES WILL REMAIN NORTH ON TUESDAY AND THE COLD
AIR PLUNGE WILL NOT ABATE. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL RELENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED
EARLY TUESDAY. FOR THIS AND MORE SUMMER WILL BE MISSED. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL RUDELY PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TRICKY...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SPLIT IN DEVELOPING A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SHOULD
THIS MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT SUPPRESSED...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. OPTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS
THIS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT OVERALL DID NOT MAKE MANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. BY SATURDAY...RECOVERING
SURFACE WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S...BUT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT IS SET TO PLUNGE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. THE NATURE OF
THIS SECOND COLD SURGE IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY KIND OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...AS
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO CLING TO ITS DEPICTION OF A
STRONGER...WETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME. EVEN
WITH THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF SCENARIOS...THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY
WILL PASS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND WOULD LIKELY
NOT RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH THE FROPA
EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH TRENDS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO LOOK DRIER AND DRIER. IN FACT...THE
LATEST ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS ALL BUT ABANDONED ITS DEPICTION
OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH
ISNT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION SEEMED TO
BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 20 41 18 30 17 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 21 39 19 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 22 40 20 30 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 28 43 22 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 27 42 22 33 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 31 45 24 36 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 30 45 24 34 22 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 29 42 21 35 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 30 43 22 33 23 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 33 44 26 36 24 / 0 0 0 0 0

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-037>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>042.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>036-039>042.

26/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1108 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...
The strong cold front was just entering Haskell and Throckmorton
counties late this evening. Winds north of the front have been
stronger than model guidance this evening, with gusts 40 to 45 KT
across northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma. Models do show
winds weakening behind the front as it treks farther south across
the area overnight but based on latest trends, think the winds
will remain a bit stronger than guidance across northern counties
for at least several hours behind the front. Winds were increased
across northern sections this update and decided to issue a wind
advisory for all of the Big Country until 12Z Tuesday.

The front will arrive at Abilene around midnight, San Angelo by
2 AM and the I-10 corridor around 5 AM.

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A strong cold front will reach KABI and KSJT between 06z and 07z and
the southern sites between 08z and 10z. Expect north winds of 15 to
25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots possible, as the front moves
through. Winds will gradually decrease by mid morning, eventually
decreasing to near 10 knots by late afternoon. Patchy stratus will
be possible at the southern sites along the front, but confidence is
not high enough to include a mention of MVFR ceilings in the TAF`s.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

Daniels

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Gusty south winds will continue at KABI and KSJT through the next
24 hours. Farther south winds will diminish after sunset, and
increase after sunrise tomorrow. Gusty north winds will develop
following frontal passage. Models hint at MVFR stratus developing
at some terminals overnight. However, confidence in this was not
high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Veterans Day)

MUCH colder temperatures for tomorrow as an Arctic blast moves
through tonight.

Currently, we have breezy southwest winds across the area with
temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold
front is just making its way into the TX panhandle, and is on
track to move into our counties right around midnight tonight if
it continues at its current speed. Latest RUC data shows the front
moving into the Haskell/Throckmorton County area between 11 PM and
Midnight. And if the front does differ on timing, it will likely
be earlier considering how cold/dense this air mass is. Regardless
of the exact timing of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 30
degrees colder tomorrow. The temperature forecast itself only
required minor changes. And although sustained winds along the
front are currently 30-40 mph, with gusts over 50 mph, we do not
expect winds quite that strong as it moves through our area.
Surface pressure rises are currently around 20 millibars/6 hours
along the nose of the front as it moves south through eastern
Colorado/western Kansas. By the time the front is in our area,
these pressure rises will be spread laterally along the front, and
weaken to a max of around 15 mb/6 hours. So, we will see mainly 20
to 30 mph with higher gusts immediately along the front, and
weaken to 10 to 20 mph throughout the day Tuesday.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s along and north of I-20
tonight where the front will have time to cool things off, with
mainly lower 40s elsewhere. Along and south of Interstate 10 where
the front will not have much time to cool things, lows will be in
the upper 40s to near 50. On Tuesday, temperatures will remain in
the 40s for most of the day, but there will be a lot of sun to
fight the cold air advection, and so areas along and south of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line should be able to manage highs in
the lower to mid 50s. There may be a few clouds right along the
front as it moves through, but skies should remain mostly clear
other than that.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night)

Plan for temperatures overnight Tuesday night to fall into mainly
the 22 to 30 range across West Central Texas.

Surface winds from the north Tuesday night will bring much colder
and drier air into West Central Texas. This inflow of cold arctic
air will likely bring the first freeze to all of West Central
Texas. We have extended the Freeze Watch to include all our
counties. However, we decided to just continue a watch for now,
given confidence issues regarding how far south the freeze will
go. Model data this run indicate temperatures will be some 5 to 7
degrees colder this period than the previous model data the
midnight shift used last night.

(Wednesday)

Expect much colder than normal temperatures Wednesday.

Winds from the north will continue to bring cold arctic air into
West Central Texas Wednesday. Models indicate winds will not be as
strong Wednesday; nevertheless, surface cold air advection will
continue, as surface high pressure builds over the region. Models
this cycle presented temperatures numbers very close to numbers from
our previous package. So, we didn`t make any major changes here.
Highs mainly in the 40s still look likely for all areas, except
perhaps our Interstate 10 corridor, where highs will likely be
around 50.

(Wednesday night)

Freezing temperatures look likely again around sunrise Thursday
morning.

Models this cycle present colder lows for this period than the
previous run. With light surface winds from the north continuing
into Wednesday night, lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s look
reasonable. So, we did adjust numbers down a few degrees from our
previous numbers for this period.

(Thursday)

Surface winds from the north will shift during the day, and by
Thursday afternoon, surface winds will be from the east. East
winds are up-slope for our area. Thus, highs Thursday in the 40s
look best.

(Thursday night through Friday night)

A warming trend dominates these periods, as surface winds from the
southeast and south return. In response to another cold front,
highs on Friday will be mainly in the 55 to 60 range; that`s much
closer to seasonal normals.

(Saturday through Monday)

Another cold front and associated upper-level system may bring
cold temperatures and perhaps additional rain to West Central
Texas. Confidence still is not real high regarding where and when
rain may occur. The GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement this
cycle, with neither developing any closed circulation aloft during
the Saturday to Saturday night periods. So, with confidence not
high, numbers and Pops close to a blend of models look reasonable.

Huber

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 37 48 24 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 5
San Angelo 41 52 25 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 5
Junction 47 54 31 50 29 / 0 0 0 5 5

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...Shackelford...
Taylor...Throckmorton.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1048 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG I80 AND I25 NORTH OF CHEYENNE THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE STEADY IN THE
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS AREA
ALONG AND NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE RECEIVING MORE MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 ELSEWHERE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY SHIFTS TOWARDS BITTERLY COLD OR
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. CURRENT 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS JUST COMING IN THIS MORNING AND IS SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH AT THE
SURFACE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL DEFINITELY SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20...BUT THE QUESTION IS DO WE GET VALUES NEAR -40 AT TIMES
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY ISSUE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
6 HOURS SINCE AIR TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS HIGH PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEAR THE NEBRASKA
BORDER AND INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MAINLY EXPECTING
AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THESE AREAS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEAR
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WIND IS LIKELY TO GIVE A
BOOST IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ABOVE WHAT THE MODELS MIGHT
SUGGEST...AT LEAST THAT IS TYPICALLY THE CASE. THEREFORE BUMPED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 INCH HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE
CONSIDERING A 15 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO. THIS PUTS MUCH OF
WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY PAST SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS. OF COURSE DETERMINING SNOW RATIOS IS A TOUGH
PROPOSITION GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS. REGARDLESS OF SNOW RATIOS...
BY MID AFTERNOON THE NAM INDICATES CONDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WITH PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AROUND ITS LIKELY THAT CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE RELEASED
AND A FEW BANDS WITH HIGHER SNOW RATES AND LARGER SNOW CRYSTALS
WILL OCCUR. BY OOZ THIS EVENING THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IT WILL BE COLOCATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS...
MAKING BANDED SNOWFALL A GREATER POSSIBILITY...AT LEAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. LONG STORY SHORT...THINKING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS A GOOD BET NEAR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
INCLUDING AROUND CHEYENNE.

WINDS WILL NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM TODAY BUT WILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH WHICH WILL OCCUR WITH FALLING SNOW. WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW IS NOT A CONCERN BUT FALLING SNOW AND 20 MPH WIND
GUSTS WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS TODAY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL ALSO BE COLD TODAY WITH VALUES MAINLY AROUND THE
ZERO DEGREE MARK. BY TONIGHT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20 BELOW ZERO TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WHICH MEANS A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
ENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO WARM WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...OR IN OTHER WORDS NEAR
40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WHAT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THUS
FAR THIS SEASON WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
15 BELOW ZERO. COULD EVEN SEE SOME 20 BELOW READINGS IN LOW LYING
SHELTERED AREA AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE
COLD SFC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST AND PRESSURES FALL
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKYS. THE MILDER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A POST-FRONTAL BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS FAIRLY QUICKLY SO
NOT A LOT OF SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
WY SAT NIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY THEN A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN
MONDAY AS SOME RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC HIGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES PREVAILING IN THE
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLAR WHICH WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LIFR RANGE JUST UNDER ONE MILE IN LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW. WE MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 00Z...BUT NAM AND HRRR MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WE WONT SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO ABOVE IFR
UNTIL MID TO LATE EVENING MOST SITES WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE MAIN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH
INTO COLORADO OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMLUATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ106-
117-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1101 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY AT OR GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BRING
SOME SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (1 INCH
OR LESS) OVERNIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE THE VISIBILITY DROP TO
AROUND 1 MILE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF A DOUGLAS TO RAWLINS LINE BY
DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES MAINLY ABOVE 6000FT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST LOWS WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF SNOWFALL FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING SINCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ONLY
BEEN AROUND ONE INCH WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SEEM TO OCCUR
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG PORTIONS OF I80...BUT EVEN THIS SNOWFALL WAS
TOO BRIEF TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...ROADS WILL
REMAIN ICY INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN
THE MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER...INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA AND IDAHO TODAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
SOUTHWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN...MOVING INTO
WYOMING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH
THE MIDLEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. CURRENTLY EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY. MAY NEED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG AND NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THE
SNOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION OF TIME TO BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE SINCE A 30:1 TO 40:1 RATIO MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COMPARED TO 15 OR 20:1.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. THE WARMEST AREA WILL
LIKELY BE SW CARBON COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 DEGREES.
FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT HIGHS TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS EASTERN WYOMING...AND
SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE 1051 MB SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER WYOMING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 20 BELOW
TO BELOW ZERO. WITH SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA...DID NOT GO QUITE
THAT LOW WITH LOWS NEAR 10 BELOW TO 5 BELOW ZERO NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN SINCE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A
TIME AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 30 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND THE LARAMIE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SHORTLY.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT WILL SETTLED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT FRIGID WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR ZERO. EVEN SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY WILL ONLY SEE
TEMPS NEAR 20 DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 15 BELOW TO 5 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

AFTER A COLD START ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SE WYOMING AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE...WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL RELATIVE WARMUP BY FRIDAY WHEN WE SEE THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...THIS WOULD HELP BUCKLE THE
ARCTIC FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOST AREAS. THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF GENERATE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING BELOW
7000 FT MSL COULD GET INTO THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S MOST SPOTS. BY SATURDAY WE SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED 170 KT UPPER JETMAX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO AND
WESTERN WYOMING. WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT PAN OUT SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP
AND JET PLACEMENT. LATER FORECASTS TOWARD MIDWEEK WILL BE ABLE TO
REFINE SPECIFIC SNOW FORECAST AND ACCUMULATIONS AS WE GET A BETTER
FEEL ON HOW THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL TREND. STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BREAKING UP AND WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z OR SO.
AFTER 12Z...WE ARE LOOKING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD AFFECT THE
RWL TAF SITE TOWARDS 12Z AND THE REST OF THE WYOMING TAF SITES BY
18Z. THE HRRR IS SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITH THIS BAND OF
SNOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BEING ABOVE 1KFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CEILINGS TO BECOME IFR. WE ARE PLAYING THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 12Z...SINCE THE HRRR IS TENDING TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE CEILINGS AT THIS CURRENT HOUR.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. VERY COLD
WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

456 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN THE LAKE
EFFECT REGION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13
2014

LAKE EFFECT MACHINE FINALLY CRANKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LITTLE COLDER AIR AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW COUNTIES. THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI BAND SETUP WITH LIMITED FETCH IN THE 280-300
RANGE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF INTENSE BANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 10KFT AND SFC-850MB DELTA TS NEAR 20C AND
SFC-700MB NEAR 30C. FOLLOWING HIRES RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIBANDS PRODUCE GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS TONIGHT AS WELL FOR A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SURFACE PAVEMENT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY WITH AIR TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MAIN ROADS WET WITH POSSIBLE ICY SPOTS RATHER THAN SNOW
COVERED. AS TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...REMAINING SNOW BANDS SHOULD
START TO PRODUCE A COVERING ON ALL SURFACES. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH MOST CONCERN
FOCUSED ON TONIGHT PERIOD WITH COLDER TEMPS AND ROADS THEN BECOMING
SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. WILL DEFER ANY HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT TO DAY
SHIFT WITH FURTHER MONITORING OF WHERE BANDS PERSIST. WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO MENTION POSSIBLE ICY CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
DOWN TO AROUND 20 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE AND
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S NORTH UNDER LAKE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

AMAZING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK UPSTREAM WITH A FULL 4 STANDARDIZED
DEVIATIONS/ANOMALIES PER PAST CLIMATE WAS HELPING TO INSURE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL DOWNSTREAM INCLUDING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INHERENT WITH THIS PATTERN ARE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHALLENGES WITH ACCOMPANYING NEARLY FRIGID AIR AS DELTA
T VALUES RANGE FROM 18C TO 25C FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL FRIDAY...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY BUT TEMPORARILY END. SOME LIGHT
SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. USING THE GARCIA METHOD ON THE 285K/GFS SURFACE
YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND ARCTIC
SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND THE
FETCH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. GFS/BUFKIT INDICATES
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE RISING TO 10K FEET WITH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAYING THE CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN THE
FETCH...MORE OF A MULTI/BAND EVENT IS EXPECTED IN LIEU OF A SINGLE
BAND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONGOING HIGHS OF GENERALLY 29F TO 25F
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR ON TRACK. THE COLDEST HIGH RECORD FOR
TUESDAY AT FT WAYNE NOVEMBER 18 IS 26F. HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TO
26F...THE CANADIAN GEM EPS GRAM AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF ONLY 22F TO 24F. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
-18C TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS FORMED JUST WEST OF KFWA AND MAY
CLIP THIS SITE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN IN
THE 2-3SM MILE RANGE WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT KEPT KFWA MVFR AS LOWER
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE BRIEF IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. OTHERWISE CIGS
HOVERING AROUND THE 3KFT RANGE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE LATER AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
KEPT KSBN TAF IN THE MVFR RANGE BUT ANY STRONGER BANDS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT
FOR UPDATES AS LOCATION UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LAKE EFFECT TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL
LATE TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

350 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

A near term challenge is forecasting the coverage of clouds, which
have been a broken mix of low, mid, and high variety overnight. It
looks like the RAP model may have the best handle on the overall
pattern of cloudiness, if not necessarily the coverage (which
appeared a bit lacking in the model). The diminishing of most cloudiness
should be underway across the wrn two thirds of the PAH forecast
area by midday, with a possible resurgence in the I-64 corridor during
the afternoon. It appears that the clearing pattern is generally
associated with a 700 mb trof axis which is forecast to move ewd
through the cyclonic pattern aloft. After today, opaque cloud cover
should be minimal.

An arctic air mass will continue to filter into the region through
Fri night, before easing off to the east on Sat. The mid/upper
pattern will take on brief ridging ahead of the next system. Low
level flow should have enough time to turn to the south by Sat
afternoon, giving a limited boost to temps. Measurable pcpn is
possible in the afternoon, first rainfall, then perhaps some
snowfall in the nwrn half of our region toward evening as the lower trop
cools. The area with the best chance of measuring more than a
tenth of an inch of snow will be the higher elevations of the
Ozark Foothills. Temps much below average will continue in the
short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

Low to medium forecast confidence in the long term with models still
not in good agreement.

Overrunning precipitation due to isentropic upglide should be
underway at the beginning of the long term period. Thermal profiles
still indicating all precipitation to be snow, but models still
quite different on QPF amounts. Models do however indicate the best
chances for snow Saturday night should be over the northwest half of
the CWA. The latest GFS run still the colder of the extended models.

A cold front is still expected to blast across the CWA on Sunday.
For Sunday morning, thermal profiles would suggest a rain/snow/sleet
mix over the southeast third of our CWA with snow elsewhere. For
Sunday afternoon models are indicating the lower levels warming up a
bit, so expect snow over the northwest third, a rain/snow/sleet mix
over the middle third, with all rain over the southeast third.

Sunday evening, in the wake of the frontal passage, the combination
of the approach of a short wave, an inverted trough over the deep
south, and plenty of moisture will induce a deformation zone and
produce yet another overrunning precipitation scenario but with more
impressive QPF amounts than Saturday night. As the cooler
post-frontal air overspreads the region Sunday evening, expect a
snow/sleet mix over the southeast third of the CWA, with all snow
elsewhere.

After midnight Sunday night precipitation should change over to all
snow. Snow may linger over the far southeast portions of our CWA
Monday morning, but little to no additional snow accumulation is
expected. Total snow accumulation from Saturday night through Sunday
night should max out somewhere in the 1.5-2.0 inch range area-wide,
with the majority falling Sunday night.

Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and flow aloft becoming
more northwest should produce dry conditions through the remainder
of the long term period along with below normal temperatures.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014

Apparently the cloud depth was narrow enough at KEVV/KOWB to erode
during the evening hours. With the 06z Thursday TAF issuance, the
trend toward broken VFR ceilings was continued. Unrestricted
ceilings should dominate for the latter 12 hours of the forecast period.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1148 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 121 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

318 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

SNOW SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY ARE EXPECTED TODAY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 AND WEST OF US-131. WHILE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 9 INCHES IN
PARTS OF ALLEGAN AND OTTAWA COUNTIES.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF
US-131 AND NORTH OF MUSKEGON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH AN INCH OR LESS
OF ACCUMULATION.

THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END SATURDAY ONLY TO START BACK UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECOND ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR
IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING. IT
LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT IT LOOKS LESS GOOD FOR THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALLS OVER OUR NW CWA EVEN SO... I CONTINUED THE ADVISORY
THERE SINCE THAT IS A TYPICAL PLACE FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH A WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW.

BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM OUR HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS...
GETTING HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN COUNTY
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE HEAVY
SNOW BANDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER ALLEGAN AND OTTAWA COUNTIES BY THE RAP...NAM AND
HRRR MODELS. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN 4 TO 7 INCHES BETWEEN
6 AM AND AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON IN TWO BANDS OVER OTTAWA AND
ALLEGAN COUNTIES. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE OUTPUT OF THE NAMDNG55. SINCE
THE LATEST RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND BIV HAS SHOW VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR 1 MILE
ALREADY... I HAVE TO BELIEVE THE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE
MORE THAN POSSIBLE. WHAT ALSO GOES ALONG WITH THIS IS THE LIFT IF
THE DGZ IS IMPRESSIVE ON ALL THREE MODELS OVER THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFT TO NEAR 11000 FT BY MID MORNING TOO. ALL
OF THAT HELPS THE CAUSE OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS IN OUR ADVISORY
AREA.

WHAT IS FORCING ALL OF THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE THE
FINALLY PUSHES THE POLAR JET CORE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THAT WAS
FORECAST TO HAPPEN SOONER BY EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODELS BUT THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DO THE TRICK AND PUT SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IN THE DEEP
COLD AIR INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE
LIFT IN THE DGZ WITH NEAR SATURATION DUE OVER ICE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN AND BY MID
MORNING SATURDAY THE AIR BECOMES SO DRY THAT GETTING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL HE HARD TO DO...EVEN WITH THE 20C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LAKE TEMPERATURE AND 850 MB. SO WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A DRY
PERIOD.

INLAND AREAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER
WITH THE HELP OF DAY TIME MIXING BRINGING THE SHOWER INLAND. ALSO
THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP THAT CAUSE TOO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY STAY NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ALL THREE
AFTERNOONS AND FALL INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT. CLOUDS DUE TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING MUCH COLDER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

THE COLD SNOWY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL START TO LIFT OUT.

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT/S THE TIME FRAME WHEN A
DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE ANOTHER BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -16C BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WNW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DGZ DOES FALL TO AROUND 4K FT...BUT
IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF COLD AIR. WE/RE LIKELY GOING TO
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WE BOOSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT.

PRIOR TO THE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT...WE/LL SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. ACCUMS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BASED ON MIXING RATIOS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BE MOST NUMEROUS WEST
OF US-131. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO 1 1/2-2SM AT KMKG/KAZO/KBTL
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE RISING AGAIN AS THE A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. SHSN WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WOULD SEEM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO FINALLY SUBSIDE. UNTIL THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014

NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

402 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE COLD/DRY AIR STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF H5 TROF HAS TAPPED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALREADY...ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED
AREA OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE LA COAST...BUT THE MAJORITY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR IS ALSO INDICATING WINTRY
PRECIP OVER ARKANSAS...BUT THIS AREA SHOULD JUST GRAZE OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY AS IT RAPIDLY HEADS EAST.

THE SLUG OF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINLY
AFFECT SOUTH MS THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY PULL EAST ALONG WITH THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF A FEW
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES
GIVEN DRY/COLD AIR IN THE COLUMN AS INDICATED IN THE BUFR DATA
PROFILES.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT DECOUPLING AND STRONG RADIATIVE
COOLING TO BEGIN AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY. WILL
UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AS EXPECT MID 20S TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FREEZE SHOULD KILL ANY REMAINING LIVE VEGETATION.

TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE MUCH IF ANY FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO USHER THE COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. TWENTIES LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH./26/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE TWO MAIN STORIES
OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY AND THE SUBSTANTIAL COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FOLLOW EARLY
TO MID-NEXT WEEK. 1) RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE. 2)
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE MID-WEEK WITH SEVERAL HARD FREEZES LIKELY
INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S.

OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE HAS GOOD SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREEMENT THROUGH
PERIOD INDICATING A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
INTERACTING WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED H5 S/WV TROUGHS THAT WILL EJECT
OUT AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT PACIFIC ORIGINATED LONGWAVE TROUGH BY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COUPLED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM
INCREASING FRONT ENTRANCE JET MAGNITUDE WILL AID IN LARGE RAIN
SHIELD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD THEN
PHASE WITH A POLAR ORIGINATED TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THAT
WILL USHER -3 TO -4 SD H925 TEMPS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL HARD FREEZES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES OF MID 20S AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS, RAIN CHANCES WERE BOOSTED SUNDAY AND
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF RAIN. EXPECT A COLD RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND HIGHER
VERTICAL TOTALS (25C) WILL BE INVOF DIRECT CIRCULATION AND JET
INDUCED DIVERGENCE THAT WILL ACT TO INCREASE RAINFALL RATE POCKETS.
MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG ON SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT VS. PREVIOUS
RUNS AND THUS COLD AIR DOES NOT LOOK TO FILTER IN FAST ENOUGH ON
BACKSIDE FOR ANY WINTER PRECIP CHANGEOVER. HAVE KEPT OUT ANY WINTER
MIX AT THIS POINT.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BOTH MAX HIGHS AND MIN LOWS WERE
DROPPED 2-4F DEGREES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH RAW MODEL GUIDANCE.
NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS QUITE COLD AS LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING INTO MID/UPPER 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 40S SOUTH. WIND CHILLS COULD FALL INTO THE TEENS
TUESDAY MORNING AND NOT FULLY RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
DAY. A SLOW WARMING PATTERN SHOULD OCCUR GOING INTO LATE WEEK BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. /ALLEN/

.AVIATION...THOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS WILL EXIST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AREAS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HBG VICINITY TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AFTER 14/00Z./26/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 44 25 45 27 / 12 2 5 3
MERIDIAN 46 23 47 26 / 13 2 4 3
VICKSBURG 43 24 45 27 / 11 2 3 3
HATTIESBURG 44 25 48 27 / 25 2 4 3
NATCHEZ 41 23 45 28 / 17 2 4 3
GREENVILLE 41 24 41 27 / 8 1 3 3
GREENWOOD 41 22 42 25 / 8 2 3 3

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

VERY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TEENS. TONIGHT
THE RAP IS FORECASTING A 1042 MB HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS RATHER ANOMALOUS ANYTIME DURING WINTER...BUT
ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY. THIS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
AID IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. COMBINE A LIGHT WIND WITH THESE TEMPERATURES AND YOU
HAVE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY
WARRANT A WIND CHILL HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BLOCKING HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS REMAINING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS PATTERNS PROPAGATES
VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVE WARM UP INTO STILL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S BY MID
NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THIS...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING APPROACHING
BUT STAYING JUST WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25. THE 00 UTC
SUITE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE REINFORCING
COLD SURGE MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE SNOW DEPTHS ARE GREATEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST WED NOV 12 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA HAVE
MOVED TO KDIK...BUT LATEST RAP/HRRR KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT SO WILL
LIKELY ADD A TEMPO GROUP HERE AS CLOUDS GO IN AND OUT. AFTER 12
UTC THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO ALL VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN
AROUND 5-15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

352 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED
STATES. SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS SHIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF SOME SNOW TO THE AREA...PERHAPS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND BRISK WINDS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR MOSAICS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TRACKING A VERY NARROW BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CNTL/NRN IND STREAKING INTO NWRN OH. THIS
LINES UP VERY WELL WITH RAP/NAM 600MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF NARROW/INTENSE 130KT JET RUNNING FROM
NRN IL INTO MI AND EVENTUALLY ONTARIO. THIS SEEN ON 1.5 PV SURFACE
/DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE/. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV LOWERING IN THIS
FLOW IS APPROACHING CHICAGO AND IS TRANSLATING QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
/NORTHEAST/ AND WILL BE NEAR DETROIT BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AS LARGE ERN NOAM TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP SWRD AND UPSTREAM 13.00Z RAOBS CONFIRM A HEALTHY/DEEP
SOURCE OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH
KILN /-9C AT 850MB/ GIVING WAY TO -11C TO -14C READINGS AT
KILX/KDTX/KGRB/KMPX. SAID RADAR MOSAICS ALSO SHOWING SLOWLY
GROWING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN LEE OF WARM LAKE
MICHIGAN WATERS. 13.00Z KILN SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW THIN /30
MB DEEP/ LAYER OF SATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE BETWEEN 850MB AND
880MB /ABOUT -10C/. GOES FOG PRODUCT CONFIRMS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA BACK INTO MUCH OF INDIANA WHERE MID LVL
FGEN AND APPROACHING PV ANOMALY ARE PRODUCING THICKER/WIDESPREAD
CLOUD ATOP THE LARGE STRATUS SHIELD. SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
SEPARATION /5KFT/ BETWEEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEEDER FEEDER FROM THE MID
DECK TO THE LOWER CLOUD AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THIS MORNING.

SO...CONSIDERED RUNNING A FLURRY MENTION ESP THIS MORNING ACROSS
WCNTL/CNTL OHIO AS WEAKENING BAND OF FGEN FORCING SLIDES
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OHIO. STILL MAY DO AT SOME
POINT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF RADAR EVAL BUT FOR RIGHT NOW NOT
SEEING ENOUGH TO MENTION. AM REMAINING PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUDS
TODAY...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. WITH MOISTURE SO
THIN...AND OVERALL PROFILE BECOMING QUITE SUBSIDENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE WAVE/FORCING THIS MORNING...SOME HOLES COULD BE CHEWED IN THE
STRATUS ESP THIS AFTN BUT CONSIDERING ITS NOVEMBER...SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION NOT GOING AWAY...AND CAA/LAKE MICHIGAN FEED OF RH IS
PRESENT ON MOST NWP SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST RIDE THE CLOUDS UNTIL WE
SEE MORE SUBSTANTIAL EROSION. 1000-850MB THICKNESS DERIVED
EQUATIONS FROM ILN SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN PVS FORECAST...SO STARTED WITH THIS BUT
NUDGED BACK TO BLENDED MOS WHICH GAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S
MOST AREAS. IF CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ALL DAY...LOWER SIDE OF THIS
ENVELOPE IS EXPECTED. LATEST HIGHER RES NAM-WRF AND EVEN TO A
DEGREE GFS DATA SUGGESTING 900-800MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH OR EVEN
INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH -14C 850MB POOL
ROTATING EAST RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE
THAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A VERY SLOW
EROSION OF CLOUDS AND IT MAY VERY WELL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. FOR THIS REASON...KEEPING MIN TEMPS ON
THE WARM SIDE OF STATISTICAL MOS. AT SOME POINT MAY NEED TO
MENTION A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER REMAINING INTACT ALL THE WAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 /REF VERY WEAK
SIMULATE REFLECTIVITY ON RECENT HRRR RUNS INTO AUGLAIZE/HARDIN
COUNTIES/

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS A QUIET...COLD PERIOD. POOL OF -14C /850MB/ AIR ONLY VERY
SLOWLY MODIFIES ON FRIDAY...WITH VERY SIMILAR 925MB TEMPS AS ON
THURSDAY...SO KEEPING HIGH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH
EMPHASIS ON RELATIVELY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THE COOLEST AND
WARMEST OVER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY. AM BANKING ON MORE SUNSHINE ON
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES IN THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OF LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
FOCUSING THE BETTER STREAMERS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO AREA
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. THAT BEING SAID...PESKY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
REMAINS ON 13.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL ALOFT. PLENTY OF RH ON
FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THURSDAY...SO THINKING AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WE ALWAYS
SEEM TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG IN THESE FLOW
REGIMES...SO LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A CHANCE WE COULD TIE OR BARELY BREAK A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMP RECORD ON FRIDAY...ONLY BECAUSE FRIDAY/S VALUES ARE A
NOTICEABLE BUBBLE OF WARMTH IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD IN COMPARISON
WITH DAYS AROUND IT. CMH /34 DEGREES IN 1916/ HAS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOLLOWED BY 32 DEGREES /CVG IN 1916/ AND DAYTON /31
DEGREES IN 1916/.

IF A GOOD CLEARING TREND DOES OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF 1032MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SRN OH AND KENTUCKY SHOULD
MEAN LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR GOOD TEMP DROP.
CONTINUE TO MENTION MID/UPPER TEENS MOST AREAS WITH A BIAS
CORRECTION INFLUENCE ON THE TEMP GRID TO BRING OUT THE RELATIVE
WARM/COOL SPOTS. WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE
REAL NOOKS AND CRANNIES PRONE TO COLD AIR SEEPAGE DROP DOWN IN THE
LOWER TEENS IF SKIES GO CLEAR EARLY IN THE NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. SYSTEMS WE WILL NEED TO
START WATCHING FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND /SEE MORE IN LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW/ WILL BE 1) DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN
ROCKIES...DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF ANOMALOUS WRN CANADA
ANTICYCLONE...AND 2) WEAKER WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. FLOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE BACKING AND FLATTENING IN THE BASAL
PORTION OF THE MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND DESPITE SOME RATHER
DECENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND. DUE TO WEAK
TRAJECTORIES/POOR MIXING ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF AREA. LIKELY TO BE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS SAT
AFTN AND WHATEVER REMNANT LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING
AROUND...BUT THIS DAY PROBABLY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE EJECTED
QUICKLY ON FAST WLY FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF L/W TROUGH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE STARVED...WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED LOW/MID RANGE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MENTION OF SNOW A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS SAT
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS A GOOD DEAL WARMER ON SAT NIGHT IN
COMPARISON TO FRI NIGHT.

WAVE OF INTEREST THOUGH WILL ITSELF BE DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING SET TO EJECT QUICKLY EAST...THOUGH AT A
LOWER LATITUDE WITH IT BEING STRONGER AND A DEEPER DIG THROUGH THE
L/W TROUGH. THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IN AN OVERALL SENSE GREATLY
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. WEIGHTED GFS PROGS FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY HAVE SHOWN A STRONG AMPLIFICATION SIGNAL IN RUN-
0VER-RUN SENSE WITH THIS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INCREASING HEIGHTS W/TIME ON
BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGES. IN RESPONSE...PRESSURES WILL
FALL WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THIS PHASING OVER THE GULF COAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS TAKING PLACE AND INCREASING DEFORMATION/FGEN FORCING ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INCLUDING OHIO/IND/KY. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE A NEWRD TRANSLATING BAND OF PCPN THROUGH KENTUCKY INTO
OHIO/WV SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DPROG/DT TRENDS STILL JUMPY OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO BE SEEN WITH
12.12Z GFS AND 13.00Z GFS LOOKING SIMILAR...WHICH IS A TREND TO
12.00Z AND 12.12Z ECMWF SHOWING PRECIPITATION FOCUSING IN ERN HALF
OF CWA WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS. DETERMINISTIC
GFS /PARALLEL AND OPNL/ CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ALL
SNOW SCENARIO...WHILE RECENT ECMWF RUNS VERY STABLE IN SUGGESTING
PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BRINGING LIKELY CHANCES BACK TO CVG/ILN/CMH
AND BLENDED THERMAL PROFILES OF COLDER GFS/WARMER ECMWF TO ARRIVE
AT PTYPE. 12.18Z GEFS PROBS SUPPORT THE LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SOUTH/EAST AT THIS TIME RANGE...AND THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT
IF NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE THAT
HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE NEEDED CWA-WIDE THOUGH THERE IS A
TIGHT GRADIENT IN OUR WEST AS OF NOW. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MANY ON SUN/SUN NIGHT. MOST CONSENSUS FOCUS
RIGHT NOW IS EAST OF I-71.

SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MONDAY WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR IN THIS PATTERN
DROPPING SOUTH AND THEN EAST RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA MON NIGHT AND
TUES. 850MB TEMPS TO -18C SEEMS LIKELY...WHICH PUTS US AT VERY
EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE IN TERMS OF THE CLIMO SPECTRUM SEEN IN BOTH
GEFS AND NAEFS REFORECAST PERCENTILES...MEANING FOR WHAT IS BEING
FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME RANGE IS UNUSUAL TO
BE THIS DEEP/COLD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. M-CLIMATE NUMBERS /GEFS/ AND
REFORECAST PERCENTILES /NAEFS/ ARE EITHER AT THEIR MINS OR VERY NEAR
THE MIN. AUTUMN READING OF -18C AT 850 MB AT ILN/DAY HAS ONLY
HAPPENED ONCE IN THE SOUNDING DATA CLIMATOLOGY ON OR BEFORE
NOVEMBER 19TH HAS ONLY HAPPENED ONE TIME /12Z ON NOVEMBER 13
1986 -- -19.3C/. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS BOTH APPROACHING
BUT JUST FALLING SHY OF 3 SIGMA BELOW CLIMO...WE PROBABLY SHOULD
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD TYING/BREAKING TEMPS IN ONE OR
MORE OF THESE PERIODS. FOR RIGHT NOW GIVEN WE/RE STILL 5 DAYS
AWAY...WILL FOCUS ON TUESDAY MAX TEMPS GIVEN THIS IS WHEN CORE OF
COLDEST AIR PASSES OVERHEAD IN BASE OF THERMAL TROUGH. SO PUT TUES MAX
TEMPS RIGHT AT RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR RIGHT NOW AND WE CAN
EVALUATE FURTHER DROPS IF NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS IN LEE OF WARM GREAT
LAKES MAY KEEP RECORD MINS UNATTAINABLE AND PLAYING IT THIS WAY
RIGHT NOW AS RECORD LOWS ARE VERY COLD ON NOV 19TH. SOMETHING TO
WATCH...EITHER WAY...VERY CHILLY FOR MID NOV BUT OUTSIDE OF FLURRY
OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER THREAT...MON/TUES SHOULD BE DRY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS STRETCH WILL END UP VERY SIMILAR TO NOVEMBER
STRETCHES IN 1991...1996...AND 1997. ALL THREE OF THOSE YEARS HAD
8-9 DAY STRETCHES WHERE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WERE
NEAR 30F...AND ARE SOME THE CHILLIEST EARLY-MID NOVEMBER LONGER
DURATION PERIODS ON RECORD.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO ERODE EVER SO SLOWLY BACK TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS BUT GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST DAY OR SO AND THE FACT
THAT AT LEAST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...WILL HANG ON TO THE CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR BUT
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WOULD EXPECT A
BIT OF A LOWERING INTO A MORE CONSISTENT MVFR DECK BEFORE LIFTING
BACK UP INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1235 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK (2500-3500 FEET) IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. RECENT GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE NOT SEEMED TO
CAPTURE THIS LAYER OF RH VERY WELL (THE 00Z NAM WAS A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT)...BUT THE 01Z RAP IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SATURATION
INDICATED AT 900MB. THE RAP/HRRR WERE USED AS GUIDANCE FOR SOME
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP AND SKY COVER
FORECASTS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH UPSTREAM
S/W TO ROTATE SE. ASSOCIATED SHEARED VORT AXIS TO MOVE THRU THE
REGION THURSDAY. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE ON THURSDAY. A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND DRY LAYER BETWEEN MID CLOUDS AND LOWER CLOUDS LEANS
TOWARD A DRY SOLN. CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SE.

EXPECT ONLY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE SW. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO ERODE EVER SO SLOWLY BACK TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS BUT GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST DAY OR SO AND THE FACT
THAT AT LEAST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...WILL HANG ON TO THE CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR BUT
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WOULD EXPECT A
BIT OF A LOWERING INTO A MORE CONSISTENT MVFR DECK BEFORE LIFTING
BACK UP INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

1206 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVC MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTN FROM N-S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z... WITH WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JTK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX FOR OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING RADAR/OBS TRENDS CLOSELY... LIGHT AREA OF SNOW LOOKS TO
BE PERSISTING JUST NORTH/ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. RECENT HRRR
DISPENSES WITH THIS AREA QUICK THROUGH 13/04Z... WHILE 13/00Z NAM
SWEEPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NWRN OK TONIGHT. GIVEN WEAK
OVERALL FORCING... WILL STICK WITH THE RADAR/OBS TRENDS. DDC WENT
DOWN TO 2 1/2 MILES VIS EARLIER...8-9PM... AS THE BAND SLID
THROUGH. OTHER THAN A QUICK DROP IN VIS ACROSS FAR NWRN OK...
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS BAND FINALLY DISSIPATES
IN 2-3HRS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED WINDS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST WERE DROPPING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE HRRR SHOWS TEMPS IN THAT REGION FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TEENS.

SKIES ARE CURRENTLY OVERCAST...AND CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK ANY TIME SOON.

GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING ON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIE
DOWN LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 19 39 27 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 33 18 39 28 / 0 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 36 21 43 30 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 27 13 36 24 / 0 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 32 16 36 25 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 37 22 41 27 / 0 0 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1011 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX FOR OVERNIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING RADAR/OBS TRENDS CLOSELY... LIGHT AREA OF SNOW LOOKS TO
BE PERSISTING JUST NORTH/ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. RECENT HRRR
DISPENSES WITH THIS AREA QUICK THROUGH 13/04Z... WHILE 13/00Z NAM
SWEEPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NWRN OK TONIGHT. GIVEN WEAK
OVERALL FORCING... WILL STICK WITH THE RADAR/OBS TRENDS. DDC WENT
DOWN TO 2 1/2 MILES VIS EARLIER...8-9PM... AS THE BAND SLID
THROUGH. OTHER THAN A QUICK DROP IN VIS ACROSS FAR NWRN OK...
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS BAND FINALLY DISSIPATES
IN 2-3HRS.

JTK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED WINDS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST WERE DROPPING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE HRRR SHOWS TEMPS IN THAT REGION FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TEENS.

SKIES ARE CURRENTLY OVERCAST...AND CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK ANY TIME SOON.

GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING ON...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIE
DOWN LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 21 33 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 20 33 18 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 23 36 21 43 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 12 27 13 36 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 19 32 16 36 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 24 37 22 41 / 10 0 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1112 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE TOMORROW
EVENING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER TONIGHT...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

HAMPSHIRE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LATEST HRRR HIRES
SOLUTION MODEL SUGGEST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR COLD/FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS REACH THE 32 DEGREE
MARK. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014/

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

433 AM PST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE BAY AREA BUT END BY MID-MORNING OR LUNCHTIME. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REBUILD WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK OR BEYOND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:43 AM PST THURSDAY...RAIN EVENT SEEMS TO BE
VERIFYING ABOUT AS ADVERTISED WITH QUARTER INCH RAIN TOTALS ON
AVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SITES AROUND HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LESSER AMOUNTS FROM MONTEREY SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE
MOST AREAS RECEIVED FAIRLY UNIFORM LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE
WITH SOME WET ROADWAYS. IN GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
BY 17-18Z WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN EXCEPT PERHAPS
SOME OF THE INLAND HILLS OF SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT GIVEN
TODAYS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING
OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. RIGHT NOW THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY IN TERMS OF
WEEKEND PLANNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED. THE DRIVING
FORCE SEEMS TO BE THE ARCTIC AIR THAT IS BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THEN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A
CHUNK OF COLD AIR WANTS TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TRY
AND EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN OREGON AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME
OF THE MODELS WANT TO BRING THIS SYSTEM DOWN INTO CALIFORNIA BUT
THE MOST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE
SIERRA. UPSHOT IS TO KEEP THE BAY AREA FORECAST DRY ON SUNDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS WELL WITH LOTS OF
JET STREAM ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC...THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND THE
COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. WERE SEEING POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. LATEST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE GEM BEING PRETTY WET AND
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE STORMS NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS
HAS GONE DRY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. INTERNAL COMPUTER ISSUES DIDNT
ALLOW ECMWF ANALYSIS TONIGHT AND THE LONG FORECAST WAS BLENDED
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE PATIENCE
WILL BE NEEDED.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PST THURSDAY...STORM SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF NORCAL COASTLINE SPREADING -RA AND MVFR CIGS/VISBY
ACROSS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS BULK OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP DWINDLES AFTER 14Z WITH -SHRA/VCSH LIKELY THROUGH BAY AREA
UNTIL 19Z THU AND MONTEREY BAY AIRPORTS THROUGH 22Z THU. WINDS VEER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE WEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z THU AT
KSFO AND KOAK. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/RAIN
TAPER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF AFTER 14Z THU... WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS IN VICINITY THROUGH
19Z THU. WINDS VEER FROM SE TO SW 17-18Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
AFTER 16Z WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS IN VICINITY THROUGH 22Z THU.

.MARINE...AS OF 04:05 AM PST THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS GRADUALLY DECLINE INTO
THE WEEKEND EXCEPT ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. WEST TO NORTHWEST
DOMINATE SWELL WITH GRADUALLY SHORTENING PERIODS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

928 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING COASTAL LOW FORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, FORMING
ALONG THE GULF COAST, MOVES ALONG THE FRONT CLOSE TO OUR REGION ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
OVERCAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AT 900
AM. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING ABOVE THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A NORTHERLY WIND
AT 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN ANTICIPATED AS A 140 MB HFC DEVELOPS OVER E
PA BY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY NICE FGEN THIS EVENING AND BOTH THE 00Z
AND 06Z/13 OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE ABOUT 17MBAR/SEC SNOW GROWTH
MODELED OVER NE NJ BY 06Z FRI (550MB). THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST.

NOTICING ALSO DECENT SNOW GROWTH ELSEWHERE I95 REGION NEAR 04-06Z
DESPITE DRYING IN THE LOW LVLS AS NW WINDS INCREASE. COULD SEE
BRIEF 1 MI LIGHT SNOW ALL ALONG I95 CORRIDOR FOR AN HOUR SO IN THE
10PM TO 2 AM TIME FRAME.

LOOKING AT MAX WBZ UNDER 2C IN THE 0-6KM LAYER AND BL LESS THAN
0C IN LOWEST 750 FT...WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW NW OF I95
THIS EVENING AND THE QUESTION HOW QUICKLY DOES IT START
STICKING... PROBABLY A MATTER OF ELEVATION AND TO SOME DEGREE
INTENSITY. ITS CERTAINLY APPEARING TO BE SPS MATERIAL BUT NOT AN
ADVY NW OF I95.

I95 ITSELF...COULD END UP WITH A SKIFF OF SNOW ON THE GRASS IN
SOME PLACES AS RAIN ENDS AS SNOW.

PRIMARY PCPN EVENT IS 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM FRIDAY.

CLEARING TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY IN E PA AS WELL AS STIFFENING CAA
SHOULD PERMIT SOME ICY SPOTS TO LINGER ON UNTREATED SFC TOMORROW
MORNING FROM NW NJ THRU E PA (MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR).

THE 330 AND 630 AM FORECAST INCLUDING SNOW MAP I THINK IS
CONSERVATIVE AND I COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM .1 TO .5 ADDITIONAL TO
THE TOTALS POSTED EARLY TODAY. I JUST DIDNT WANT TO FORCE THE
TOOLS ANY FURTHER. ITS POSSIBLE I DID NOT COOL THE SFC TEMPS FAST
ENOUGH THIS EVENING IN E PA AND NW NJ WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTAL.

POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD BY 20 PCT IN DELAWARE FOR THIS 630 AM
ESTF.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THOUGH THE TROUGH WILL RELOAD SEVERAL TIMES
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS BRINGING WITH IT BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER,
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH THE LAST OF
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUICK COASTAL LOW MOVES
AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS MAY MAKE
IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES, BUT WITH A FRESH AND DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID-
30S. SATURDAY THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE DRYING
TREND CONTINUES WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW-40S.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE WEAK RIDGING BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE 40S...DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMALLY WE
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY OVER-RUNNING RAIN FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY SOUTHWARD WITH A COLD BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
MOSTLY SNOW.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AS THE GULF COAST
LOW MOVES BY OUR REGION. PHASING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR
THOUGH A JOG TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE
PAST DAY OF RUNS WITH THE GFS...EC MOVED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ABOVE 0C LOW-LEVEL PROFILE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH....COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE START ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE
EVENT. ENSEMBLES SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD STILL EXISTS SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
TUESDAY THE LOW, WHATEVER STRENGTH IT BECOMES, WILL BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
EARLY TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING BACK IN.

WEDNESDAY...DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH RIDGING MOVING BACK IN BUT WITH
AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HIGHS MAY NOT
REACH 40F IN A LOT OF PLACES.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM SW TO NE. LIGHT N TO NORTHWEST WIND. RAIN SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -RA....EXCEPT RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW KRDG/KABE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY 05Z WHILE
RAIN SHOULD END AS WET SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUM DURING THE
PCPN KTTN/ KPNE/KPHL/KILG. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KPHL-KTTN WILL SEE
AN HOUR OF 1 MILE VSBY IN SNOW WITH JUST ABV FREEZING SFC TEMP
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z-07Z. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATIVE SNOW OF ONE
HALF INCH OR MORE ON PAVEMENT APPEARS TO BE KABE.

AFTER 08Z FRIDAY...ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP FROM LEFTOVER MOISTURE
TOWARD 10Z FRIDAY AS A STIFFENING NW WIND DEVELOPS....GUSTS TO 15
OR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN TIME.

.MARINE...
SCA FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TODAY, NW TO N WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING 5-10 KT BY THE AFTN.

TONIGHT...NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT
EXPECTED...STARTING AROUND 03Z LOWER DE BAY AND DE ATLC WATERS
THEN PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NJ WATERS AROUND 06Z. WE LEFT GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN THE WATERS E OF DELAWARE FROM OUR WIND GUST TOOL AS
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR 2 OF GALE GUSTS NEAR
44009 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED THOUGH SCA GUSTS MAY LINGER
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW END CHANCE OF SCA SEAS AS THE SURFACE FLOW INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

959 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS AND ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR TODAY
ACROSS NW ZONES GIVEN RADAR TRENDS/SPOTTER REPORTS/ROAD
CLOSERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH BEND AREA. ADDED MOISTURE/ASCENT
WITH PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME DRY LOW LEVELS/POOR FETCH SO FAR THIS
MORNING. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW OMEGA AND
SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE ALIGNED NICELY WITHIN LOWER
PART OF DGZ THROUGH THE AFTN FOR DECENT RATIOS/SNOW PRODUCTION.
WITH THAT SAID...INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND
DIURNAL CYCLE DISRUPTIONS SHOULD HOPEFULLY SUPPORT LESS
ORGANIZATION/IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF LULL BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13
2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

AMAZING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK UPSTREAM WITH A FULL 4 STANDARDIZED
DEVIATIONS/ANOMALIES PER PAST CLIMATE WAS HELPING TO INSURE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL DOWNSTREAM INCLUDING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INHERENT WITH THIS PATTERN ARE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHALLENGES WITH ACCOMPANYING NEARLY FRIGID AIR AS DELTA
T VALUES RANGE FROM 18C TO 25C FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL FRIDAY...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY BUT TEMPORARILY END. SOME LIGHT
SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. USING THE GARCIA METHOD ON THE 285K/GFS SURFACE
YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND ARCTIC
SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND THE
FETCH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. GFS/BUFKIT INDICATES
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE RISING TO 10K FEET WITH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAYING THE CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN THE
FETCH...MORE OF A MULTI/BAND EVENT IS EXPECTED IN LIEU OF A SINGLE
BAND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONGOING HIGHS OF GENERALLY 29F TO 35F
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR ON TRACK. THE COLDEST HIGH RECORD FOR
TUESDAY AT FT WAYNE NOVEMBER 18 IS 26F. HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TO
26F...THE CANADIAN GEM EPS GRAM AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF ONLY 22F TO 24F. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
-18C TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT KSBN. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN THE BANDS
MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT. WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO START THE PERIOD
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. BANDS SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY BUT
EXPECT ADDITIONAL TEMPO GROUP WILL BE NEEDED LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. SECOND WAVE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. KFWA WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THEY ALSO MAY
SEE THE TAIL END OF SOME LAKE BANDS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR VIS
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

727 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13
2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

AMAZING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK UPSTREAM WITH A FULL 4 STANDARDIZED
DEVIATIONS/ANOMALIES PER PAST CLIMATE WAS HELPING TO INSURE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL DOWNSTREAM INCLUDING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INHERENT WITH THIS PATTERN ARE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHALLENGES WITH ACCOMPANYING NEARLY FRIGID AIR AS DELTA
T VALUES RANGE FROM 18C TO 25C FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL FRIDAY...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY BUT TEMPORARILY END. SOME LIGHT
SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. USING THE GARCIA METHOD ON THE 285K/GFS SURFACE
YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND ARCTIC
SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND THE
FETCH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. GFS/BUFKIT INDICATES
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE RISING TO 10K FEET WITH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAYING THE CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN THE
FETCH...MORE OF A MULTI/BAND EVENT IS EXPECTED IN LIEU OF A SINGLE
BAND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONGOING HIGHS OF GENERALLY 29F TO 35F
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR ON TRACK. THE COLDEST HIGH RECORD FOR
TUESDAY AT FT WAYNE NOVEMBER 18 IS 26F. HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TO
26F...THE CANADIAN GEM EPS GRAM AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF ONLY 22F TO 24F. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
-18C TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

637 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13
2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

AMAZING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK UPSTREAM WITH A FULL 4 STANDARDIZED
DEVIATIONS/ANOMALIES PER PAST CLIMATE WAS HELPING TO INSURE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL DOWNSTREAM INCLUDING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INHERENT WITH THIS PATTERN ARE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHALLENGES WITH ACCOMPANYING NEARLY FRIGID AIR AS DELTA
T VALUES RANGE FROM 18C TO 25C FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL FRIDAY...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY BUT TEMPORARILY END. SOME LIGHT
SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. USING THE GARCIA METHOD ON THE 285K/GFS SURFACE
YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND ARCTIC
SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND THE
FETCH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. GFS/BUFKIT INDICATES
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE RISING TO 10K FEET WITH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAYING THE CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN THE
FETCH...MORE OF A MULTI/BAND EVENT IS EXPECTED IN LIEU OF A SINGLE
BAND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONGOING HIGHS OF GENERALLY 29F TO 35F
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR ON TRACK. THE COLDEST HIGH RECORD FOR
TUESDAY AT FT WAYNE NOVEMBER 18 IS 26F. HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TO
26F...THE CANADIAN GEM EPS GRAM AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF ONLY 22F TO 24F. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
-18C TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

559 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ENVELOPED MUCH OF CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
APPROACH OF SHEARING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ALSO
CONTINUE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN IA BRIEFLY REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 2-5SM. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ANTICYCLONE OF 1045+ MB
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ROCKIES... WITH COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS
OR WINDSHIFTS NOTED UPSTREAM ATTENDANT TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
BEING SHUTTLED DOWN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. ITS STILL COLD... WITH
00Z DVN RAOB 850 TEMP OF -16.1C 3RD COLDEST 850 MB TEMP IN MONTH
OF NOVEMBER AT DVN... TIED WITH 2000 (11/21 00Z) AND 2005 (11/25
00Z)... WITH THE COLDEST BEING -16.8C IN 1997 (11/16 12Z).

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

LOWER CLOUDS TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CWA AS SHEARING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES... AND MAY SEE SOME BREAKS FOR A TIME
THIS AM NORTH HALF... BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ANY DIURNAL
HEATING LENDING TO MORE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THUS... CONTINUED
PT-MOCLDY SKIES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TDY. MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AM THROUGH AFTN WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WI... AND ALSO WITH
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING UP
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR BRIEF REDUCED VSBYS WITH DUSTING
OR SO OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER... ALREADY SEEING
VSBYS DROP DOWN IN RANGE OF 2-5SM OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN EARLY
THIS AM. AS FOR TEMPS... WITH CLOUDS AND MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW WOULD
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF LITTLE RISE ON TEMPS... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
MID 20S TO AROUND 30F.

TONIGHT... FLURRIES TO WANE EARLY FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS
WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH
WIND FROM NW AT 5-10 MPH SHOULD PREVENT BOTTOMING OUT ON TEMPS...
BUT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECT COLDER LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD
MID/UPPER TEENS. WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

OVERVIEW...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE E PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA/U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO INTO THE LOWER 48.

FRIDAY...AS A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...A
LOW-LEVEL SFC-850 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...REACHING
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THESE NUMBERS ARE CORROBORATED BY 1000-500
MB THICKNESSES NEAR 522 DAM. SREF HAS 850 MB TEMPS "WARMING" TO NEAR
-11 C BY THE EVENING.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY UNTIL WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THE WARMER
TEMPS SIGNAL INCREASING MOISTURE AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN AREA OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRI WHICH IS THEN ADVECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION REGIME AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. NEGATIVE OMEGA IS
MOST PROMINENT SAT EVENING BUT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.

THE NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND PAINT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF QPF WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0.10 INCHES. THE NAM IS DRY THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT
IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD. 850 MB TEMPS AT -10 C SUPPORT ALL
SNOW...EVEN IF SFC TEMPS BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AT
MIDDAY...EVAPORATE COOLING WILL KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR BELOW
QUICKLY.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE DGZ DEPTH WILL
BE IN THE 100-150 MB RANGE DURING THE CORE OF THE EVENT AND WILL BE
DEEPEST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. THE DGZ DEPTH WILL INCREASE TO >200
MB AFTER 06Z/SUNDAY BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO NAM COBB SNOW
RATIOS AVERAGING NEAR NEAR 16:1 ARE REASONABLE. IF MODELS STAY ON
TRACK AVG SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HARD TO BELIEVE IT IS ONLY MID
NOVEMBER BUT COLDER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANOTHER JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAX WILL ORIGINATE OVER
THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND PROPAGATE STRAIGHT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. IF IT WERE JANUARY THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS
TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT IN SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPS. CONSENSUS HAS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ON MON/TUE BUT THIS MAY TREND SLIGHTLY
COLDER. 850 TEMPS NEAR -20 C WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AND WOULD BE A RECORD IN THE DVN SOUNDING CLIMATE DATA. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS ARE A REAL
POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY NW OF
DAVENPORT. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS TRY TO
PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE BY WED AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
RISE TO NEAR 534 DAM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

STRATUS WITH MVFR TO LOWER VFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND FROM MID AM THROUGH AFTN... WHICH COULD DROP VSBYS
IN RANGE OF AROUND 2-5SM FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME RESULTING IN A
DUSTING OF ACCUM. NOT CONFIDENT ON IMPACT AT TERMINAL ATTIM THUS
LEFT OUT MENTION. RAP MODEL MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEPICTING LOW MVFR
STRATUS HANGING ON MUCH OF TONIGHT... AND FOR NOW SIDED TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CONSENSUS AS ANTICIPATE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE MAY AID IN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH ANY CIGS LIFTING TO
VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN GENERAL RANGE OF 5-9 KTS TONIGHT.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

957 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

KPAH/KEVV radar along with a few spotter reports have revealed a
few snow flurries/light snow showers occurring with this band of
clouds moving through the area this morning. According to radar,
it appears most of the echoes are over S. IL, SW IN and parts of
W. KY. Looking upstream, there are additional reports of
flurries in association with more clouds heading this way. So,
will add in some scattered flurries to the forecast grids for
several hours based on these trends. No accumulation expected.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

A near term challenge is forecasting the coverage of clouds, which
have been a broken mix of low, mid, and high variety overnight. It
looks like the RAP model may have the best handle on the overall
pattern of cloudiness, if not necessarily the coverage (which
appeared a bit lacking in the model). The diminishing of most
cloudiness should be underway across the wrn two thirds of the PAH
forecast area by midday, with a possible resurgence in the I-64
corridor during the afternoon. It appears that the clearing pattern
is generally associated with a 700 mb trof axis which is forecast to
move ewd through the cyclonic pattern aloft. After today, opaque
cloud cover should be minimal.

An arctic air mass will continue to filter into the region through
Fri night, before easing off to the east on Sat. The mid/upper
pattern will take on brief ridging ahead of the next system. Low
level flow should have enough time to turn to the south by Sat
afternoon, giving a limited boost to temps. Measurable pcpn is
possible in the afternoon, first rainfall, then perhaps some
snowfall in the nwrn half of our region toward evening as the lower
trop cools. The area with the best chance of measuring more than a
tenth of an inch of snow will be the higher elevations of the Ozark
Foothills. Temps much below average will continue in the short term
period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

Low to medium forecast confidence in the long term with models still
not in good agreement.

Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and flow aloft becoming
more northwest should produce dry conditions through the remainder
of the long term period along with below normal temperatures.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

As an arctic air mass continues to filter into the region, VFR cigs
are forecast to lift this morning, but substantial cloud cover will
probably linger for most of the daylight hours in the ern third of
the region. North to nw sustained winds around 10-12 knots will
prevail during the day before decreasing overnight.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

619 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

Updated aviation discussion only.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

A near term challenge is forecasting the coverage of clouds, which
have been a broken mix of low, mid, and high variety overnight. It
looks like the RAP model may have the best handle on the overall
pattern of cloudiness, if not necessarily the coverage (which
appeared a bit lacking in the model). The diminishing of most
cloudiness should be underway across the wrn two thirds of the PAH
forecast area by midday, with a possible resurgence in the I-64
corridor during the afternoon. It appears that the clearing pattern
is generally associated with a 700 mb trof axis which is forecast to
move ewd through the cyclonic pattern aloft. After today, opaque
cloud cover should be minimal.

An arctic air mass will continue to filter into the region through
Fri night, before easing off to the east on Sat. The mid/upper
pattern will take on brief ridging ahead of the next system. Low
level flow should have enough time to turn to the south by Sat
afternoon, giving a limited boost to temps. Measurable pcpn is
possible in the afternoon, first rainfall, then perhaps some
snowfall in the nwrn half of our region toward evening as the lower
trop cools. The area with the best chance of measuring more than a
tenth of an inch of snow will be the higher elevations of the Ozark
Foothills. Temps much below average will continue in the short term
period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

Low to medium forecast confidence in the long term with models still
not in good agreement.

Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and flow aloft becoming
more northwest should produce dry conditions through the remainder
of the long term period along with below normal temperatures.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1031 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...USHERING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUITE THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDS FM 24 HRS AGO. MUCH COOLER AMS HAS
SETTLED OVR THE RGN ON NNW WNDS. PLENTY OF CLDNS COVERS THE FA
ATTM...AND THAT WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. PATCHY VERY
LGT RA TRACKS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MNLY INLAND) SO FAR THIS
MRNG. WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE AREAS INTO THE AFTN
HRS. OTRW...AWAITING RA TO DEVELOP/ARRIVE LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE
AS VERY WK WAVE OF LO PRES TRACKS NE INVOF CSTL PLAIN IN ERN NC.
LTL EVIDENCE OF PCPN SO FAR TO THE SSW...HWVR THAT SHOULD CHANGE
DURG THE AFTN HRS (THOUGH 15Z/13 RUC KEEPS BULK OF ANY PCPN
LARGELY TO AREAS OVR NE NC THROUGH 00Z/14). WILL HAVE POPS INCRSG
TO 30-50% AFT 21Z/13 (HIGHEST S). TEMPS RMNG IN THE M/U40S N AND
CNTRL LOCATIONS...FALLING INTO THE 40S/L50S FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN MOST AREAS LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING
HRS...AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE. PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE EARLY
AM HRS FRI ALONG THE COAST. WILL BE ALL RAIN INTIALLY THIS
EVE...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW BETWEEN 03-06Z. MAIN
AREA OF FORCING/UVM DEPARTING AFTER MDNGT AS COOLING BEGINS.
TIMING WOULD BE CRUCIAL FOR ANY PSBL MIXED PTYPE (RA/SN) AS BNDRY
LYR IS THE LAST TO SUFFICIENTLY COOL. WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE
MENTION OF SN TO AREAS MNLY N OF A LINE FM FVX TO RIC TO SBY
(EARLIEST/LT THU EVE W...AFT MDNGT E). NO IMPACT (FM ANY FROZEN
PCPN) IS XPCD. LO TEMPS THU NGT ARND 30F FAR NW TO THE U30S/ARND
40F RIGHT AT THE CST.

PCPN WINDING DOWN QUICKLY BY EARLY FRI MRNG W/ CLDS SLO TO EXIT
TO THE E. GUSTY NNW WNDS USHER IN COLD/DRY AIR ON FRI...SETTING UP
A VERY COLD NGT FRI NGT W/ SKC AND DIMINISHING WNDS. HIGHS FRI IN
THE MID-UPPER 40S. PTNTL EXISTS FOR A FREEZE FM KPHF TO KORF/KNTU
(LAST RMNG AREAS TO BE IN AKQ FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM)...WILL DEPEND
ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION...BUT MOST OF THESE AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MINS AT OR BELOW
32 F. WELL INALND A HARD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.

SAT WILL BE DRY/CHILLY W/ SFC HI PRES SETTLING OVR THE RGN FM THE
WNW. LIGHETER WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
40S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INDICATED. AS A PIECE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES MOVES EAST AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT AND
GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

SUNDAY IS NOW FORECAST TO BE DRY. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS
AND EURO INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PERIOD OF PCPN LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW PULLS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN ENDING FROM THE WEST. DRY
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARGUE AGAINST SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER THE
PIEDMONT COULD OCCUR AT THE INITIATION OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO MID
50S SE EXCEPT WARMING TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S FAR SE VA AND NE NC
MONDAY. HIGHS RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY
MORNING...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO NEAR FREEZING AT THE
COAST. LOWS IN THE 30S INLAND TO LWR 40S AT THE COAST MONDAY MORNING
COOL TO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING AND THE 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO BKN SC/AC (4000-9000 FT) WILL SPREAD INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION DURING TODAY...AS WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPS ALNG THE NC CST.
LWR SC (MVFR CIGS) LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENG...AND WILL LAST INTO
THE OVRNGT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH -RA POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE...AS THE
LO MOVES NE OFF THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST WHILE
INTENSIFYING A BIT. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT RIC/SBY LATE
TNGT/EARLY FRI MORNG BEFORE PCPN ENDS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN USHER EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING LO
FOR LATE TNGT INTO FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE FM MID
MORNG FRI INTO EARLY SUN. GOOD CHC FOR MORE RAIN SUN NGT INTO MON
NGT WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
NNE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT DURING TODAY...BUT STRONG NNW WINDS
(15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENG INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENG...DUE TO LO PRES TRACKING NNE OFF
THE MID ATLC CST TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND COLD HI PRES BLDNG
IN FM THE W. WINDS/CONDITIONS WILL THEN CALM DOWN SAT THRU SUN
MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA AND JUST OFFSHR.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
652-654-656-658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

826 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

BASED ON REPORTS OF UP TO 3.5 INCHES IN MUSKEGON COUNTY AND THAT
MKG HAS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH A SNOW INCREASE ONE AT 8 AM...
WE RECENTLY HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SCHOOL BUSES HAVING PROBLEMS
MAKING UP HILLS AND SOME EMERGENCY VEHICELS HAVING PROBLEMS
STOPPING DUE TO THE SNOW AND ICE. SO...IT MAKES SENSE INCLUDE
MUSKEGON IN THE ADVISORY. ALSO I EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE THERE
HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS YET. THEN THE SNOW WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING. I COULD SEE 5 TO 7 INCHES BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MUSKEGON COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

INLAND AREAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER
WITH THE HELP OF DAY TIME MIXING BRINGING THE SHOWER INLAND. ALSO
THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP THAT CAUSE TOO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY STAY NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ALL THREE
AFTERNOONS AND FALL INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT. CLOUDS DUE TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING MUCH COLDER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

THE COLD SNOWY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL START TO LIFT OUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THE
MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE (MKG)...POSSIBLY REACHING GRR AND AZO/BTL. LAN AND JXN
SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR WITH CIGS AND OCNL SNOW SHOWERS.

THE TAFS ARE WRITTEN TO SHOW MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z BUT I
DO EXPECT THE SNOW BANDS TO MOVE BACK INTO AZO /BTL BY EARLY
EVENING SO I TOOK THEM TO IFR AFTER 02Z. THOSE SNOW BANDS MAY ALSO
IMPACT MKG AND GRR BUT I DID NOT SHOW THAT IN THE TAF FORECAST
SINCE IT SEEMED MORE QUESTIONABLE THEN AT AZO AND BTL.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014

NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
050-056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

623 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

INLAND AREAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER
WITH THE HELP OF DAY TIME MIXING BRINGING THE SHOWER INLAND. ALSO
THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP THAT CAUSE TOO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY STAY NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ALL THREE
AFTERNOONS AND FALL INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT. CLOUDS DUE TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING MUCH COLDER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

THE COLD SNOWY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL START TO LIFT OUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014

NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

853 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

BROAD AREA OF STATUS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHICH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE STARTING TO ERODE OUT. HAVE
ADDED MENTION OF FLURRIES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID-DAY AS
VARIOUS POINTS ARE REPORTING SNOW...BUT LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITIES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

THE 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 09-11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD
THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE 10 UTC LAMP IS REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
PICKING UP ON THE STRATUS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS AS
OBSERVED THROUGH 12 UTC...SLOWLY ERODING IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA PROPAGATES EAST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE STRATUS WILL EVOLVE IS LOW. ALSO
ADDED FLURRIES TO LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN
LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF CLEARING IS LOW.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

607 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

942 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WEAK LIFT AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROF IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND
LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS TO PREVENT A SEED/FEEDER SET UP PER WEAK
ECHO RETURNS ON KILN RADAR. THE EXCEPTION IS PERHAPS THE FAR NW.
RAP/HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK SFC TROF AXIS REFLECTED AT THE
SFC...COMBINED WITH CAA OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THESE LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS NEEDS TO BE PULLED FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN WHICH
THE SHALLOW UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE MID 30S
WEST...SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER RES NAM-WRF AND EVEN TO A DEGREE GFS DATA
SUGGESTS 900-800MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH OR EVEN INCREASE TONIGHT AS
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH -14C 850MB POOL ROTATING EAST RIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE THAT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A VERY SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS AND
IT MAY VERY WELL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
FOR THIS REASON...KEEPING MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
STATISTICAL MOS. AT SOME POINT MAY NEED TO MENTION A FLURRY OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER REMAINING INTACT ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 /REF VERY WEAK SIMULATE REFLECTIVITY ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS INTO AUGLAIZE/HARDIN COUNTIES/

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS TRYING TO ERODE AWAY FROM THE
WEST WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLEARING WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. LOWER CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT ON
SATELLITE GIVEN SOME OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOWER
CLOUD CLEARING MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN ON THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE POSSIBLY
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT AM HESITANT TO
BACK AWAY FROM THE MVFR CIGS BASED ON THEIR PERSISTENCE SO FAR.
WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE CIGS TO LIFT UP INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO AT LEAST
A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

639 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS TRYING TO ERODE AWAY FROM THE
WEST WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLEARING WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. LOWER CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT ON
SATELLITE GIVEN SOME OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOWER
CLOUD CLEARING MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN ON THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE POSSIBLY
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT AM HESITANT TO
BACK AWAY FROM THE MVFR CIGS BASED ON THEIR PERSISTENCE SO FAR.
WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE CIGS TO LIFT UP INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO AT LEAST
A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

1047 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SNOW NOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT
LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR INTO OUR AREA...PER
LAST FEW HRRR RUNS. WILL LEAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE AT LEAST THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD END
ANY REMAINING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 25 42 25 / 10 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 23 39 23 / 10 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 23 38 23 / 10 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 24 34 19 / 20 10 10 10

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

854 AM PST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
LOOK FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REBUILD WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
MIDWEEK OR BEYOND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PST THURSDAY...RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS
MOST OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH KMUX IS STILL SHOWING A FEW ECHOS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY UNDER 1/3" FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS ABOVE HALF AN INCH. ONCE STATION ON MOUNT TAM ENDED UP
WITH AROUND 3/4". MINOR FORECAST UPDATE WAS DONE TO REFLECT THE
RAINFALL ENDED THIS MORNING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR POSSIBLE RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY PLUS NEXT WORK WEEK. STILL WAITING ON THE ECMWF TO
COME IN BEFORE DECIDING TO MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN EVENT SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING ABOUT AS
ADVERTISED WITH QUARTER INCH RAIN TOTALS ON AVERAGE. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SITES AROUND HALF INCH IN THE NORTH BAY AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FROM MONTEREY SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE MOST AREAS
RECEIVED FAIRLY UNIFORM LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE WITH SOME WET
ROADWAYS. IN GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY 17-18Z
WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME OF THE
INLAND HILLS OF SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT GIVEN
TODAY`S LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING
OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. RIGHT NOW THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY IN TERMS OF
WEEKEND PLANNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS WELL WITH LOTS OF
JET STREAM ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC...THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND THE
COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. WERE SEEING POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. LATEST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE GEM BEING PRETTY WET AND
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE STORMS NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS
HAS GONE DRY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. INTERNAL COMPUTER ISSUES DIDN`T
ALLOW ECMWF ANALYSIS TONIGHT AND THE LONG FORECAST WAS BLENDED
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE PATIENCE
WILL BE NEEDED.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
AFTER 16Z WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS IN VICINITY THROUGH 22Z THU.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

557 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS AT 13/22Z PLACED A 1011 HPA SURFACE LOW
VERY NEAR LITTLE RIVER INLET WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW...ESSENTIALLY PARALLELING SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA COASTS. AN AREA OF INTENSIFYING SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS
PER 13/21Z RAP FGEN VECTORS STRETCHED WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS INTO THE UPSTATE FROM THE
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME A STRONGER...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES AND FURTHER PUSHES COLD AIR AROUND AND EVENTUALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

THE VARIOUS FRONTAL PASSES THROUGH THE NIGHT POSES A PARTICULAR
FORECAST CHALLENGE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. SHOULD ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT WITH A
STEEPER THERMAL DECLINES OCCURRING LATE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE COOLEST LOWS
WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WARMER CORRIDOR
STRETCHING ACROSS JASPER...BEAUFORT...SOUTHERN COLLETON AND LOWER
CHARLESTON COUNTIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AROUND BEAUFORT COUNTY.

CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. GRIDDED POPS OF 10
PERCENT OR LESS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
1. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST GLAMP...RAP AND H3R
THERMAL TRENDS.
2. REMOVED MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS THIS PHENOMENA WILL NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.
3. ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE EXPECTED PASSAGES OF THE
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY FRONTS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL FACILITATE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER BEHIND AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE
THICKNESS PROGS ACTUALLY GIVE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS BUT THE
ADDITION OF WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 5-10 KT
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. ALTHOUGH THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...CLEAR SKIES WILL ONLY
HELP TEMPS PLUMMET AFTER DARK. WE ARE STILL SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S FAR INLAND WITH READINGS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GA COAST AND SC BEACHES.
BASED ON OUR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPS
IN MUCH OF THIS AREA...WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE
SUNNY SKIES THE HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE MID 50S.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND POSITIVE THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AND HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.

LAKE WINDS...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS.
WE STILL ARE FORECASTING WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A BIT ACTIVE AS THE
CORE OF A DEEP TROUGH DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND HELPS SPREAD
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY AND THEN
QUICKLY RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SPREAD A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD FORCING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SUFFICIENT CONTINUED MODEL AGREEMENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY RISE WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. SINCE WE LOOK
TO BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AN
IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BLAST TUESDAY ONWARD. IN FACT...RAW MODEL
THICKNESS VALUES FROM THE ECMWF WOULD ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN TO
FEATURE HIGHS AND LOWS APPROACHING 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALSO...
IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND SETS UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KCHS FROM
10-13Z AND 13-15Z AT KSAV IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CEILING REDUCTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
STRONG...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO GUST NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS /25 KT/ BEYOND 20 NM AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD BUT BE
LIMITED BY THE OFFSHORE WINDS...PROBABLY PEAKING AT 5 FT OUT NEAR
40 NM OFF THE NORTHERN GA COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY WIND SURGE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD NORTHERLY WINDS
AFFECT THE WATERS. 20-30 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN CHARLESTON WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS JUSTIFY
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH ZONES DUE TO
FREQUENT 25 KT WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS MAY BE CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE GREATLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1210 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

AMAZING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK UPSTREAM WITH A FULL 4 STANDARDIZED
DEVIATIONS/ANOMALIES PER PAST CLIMATE WAS HELPING TO INSURE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL DOWNSTREAM INCLUDING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INHERENT WITH THIS PATTERN ARE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHALLENGES WITH ACCOMPANYING NEARLY FRIGID AIR AS DELTA
T VALUES RANGE FROM 18C TO 25C FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL FRIDAY...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY BUT TEMPORARILY END. SOME LIGHT
SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. USING THE GARCIA METHOD ON THE 285K/GFS SURFACE
YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND ARCTIC
SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND THE
FETCH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. GFS/BUFKIT INDICATES
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE RISING TO 10K FEET WITH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAYING THE CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN THE
FETCH...MORE OF A MULTI/BAND EVENT IS EXPECTED IN LIEU OF A SINGLE
BAND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONGOING HIGHS OF GENERALLY 29F TO 35F
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR ON TRACK. THE COLDEST HIGH RECORD FOR
TUESDAY AT FT WAYNE NOVEMBER 18 IS 26F. HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TO
26F...THE CANADIAN GEM EPS GRAM AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF ONLY 22F TO 24F. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
-18C TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS RANGING BTW HIGH MVFR-LOW VFR
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AT KSBN WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. KFWA WILL ALSO SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY THIS AFTN WHICH MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
OTHERWISE...WNW WINDS 10-16 KTS THIS AFTN WILL LESSEN TO BTW 6-12
KTS TONIGHT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1128 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.

WEB CAMS INDICATE A VERY MINOR ACCUMULATION IN THE DBQ AREA. AS
SUCH THE MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MORE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON LIKELY DURING THE MAXIMUM HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

A SIGNIFICANT REVISION HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.

RADAR HAS FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FORCING AND LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING HAS CREATED NEW CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

IF TRENDS WITH THE RAP MODEL ARE CORRECT...SOME OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD GET FAIRLY STRONG LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ENVELOPED MUCH OF CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
APPROACH OF SHEARING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ALSO
CONTINUE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN IA BRIEFLY REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 2-5SM. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ANTICYCLONE OF 1045+ MB
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ROCKIES... WITH COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS
OR WIND SHIFTS NOTED UPSTREAM ATTENDANT TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
BEING SHUTTLED DOWN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. ITS STILL COLD... WITH
00Z DVN RAOB 850 TEMP OF -16.1C 3RD COLDEST 850 MB TEMP IN MONTH
OF NOVEMBER AT DVN... TIED WITH 2000 (11/21 00Z) AND 2005 (11/25
00Z)... WITH THE COLDEST BEING -16.8C IN 1997 (11/16 12Z).

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

SUNDAY INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HARD TO BELIEVE IT IS ONLY MID
NOVEMBER BUT COLDER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANOTHER JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAX WILL ORIGINATE OVER
THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND PROPAGATE STRAIGHT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. IF IT WERE JANUARY THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS
TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT IN SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPS. CONSENSUS HAS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ON MON/TUE BUT THIS MAY TREND SLIGHTLY
COLDER. 850 TEMPS NEAR -20 C WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AND WOULD BE A RECORD IN THE DVN SOUNDING CLIMATE DATA. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS ARE A REAL
POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY NW OF
DAVENPORT. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS TRY TO
PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE BY WED AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
RISE TO NEAR 534 DAM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGH 03Z/14 WITH POCKETS OF VFR.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECT A TAF
SITE AND MAY DROP VSBYS BRIEFLY DOWN TO 1SM. AFT 03Z/14 CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1021 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

A SIGNIFICANT REVISION HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.

IF TRENDS WITH THE RAP MODEL ARE CORRECT...SOME OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD GET FAIRLY STRONG LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

SNOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF CURRENT TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL ARE
CORRECT...SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KDBQ
WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO WHAT THE RAP MODEL IS SUGGESTING.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

400 PM MST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST THU NOV 13 2014

DECENT REBOUND IN AREA TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...AS THE
FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY SITS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH THE MID
20S...UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
EASTWARD FURTHER ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR WEAK
RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME.
INITIALLY LOOKING FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SHIFT OVER AREA...BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST WILL WORK NORTHWARD.

FOCUS FOR ANY FLURRIES OR WEAK --SW WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE TEMP/PRESSURE CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING BETWEEN
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND STRONG RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS IS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. NO
MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH AFFECTED AREA SEEING A TRACE TO
ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. FOR TEMPS/WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...NOT PLANNING ON ANY PRODUCT ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AS
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING INTACT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO/CLOSE TO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS UNTIL THICKER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE THEN SHOULD HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THERE. OVERALL LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL
RANGE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO...WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES.

GOING INTO FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AREA UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 10-20 MPH. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HIGHS
DESPITE WINDS...SO HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE GIVING THE AREA A
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME BRIEF MORNING FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW ZONES
OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR NO OTHER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST THU NOV 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE JET IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TRAVERSES THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES ON FRIDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST OUT OF THE REGION
WITH THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STRONGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH AN
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE TWO PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
VARY FROM LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NEARLY 3
INCHES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS COLD
AIR STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY MID-WEEK.
RESULTING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST THU NOV 13 2014

BATCH OF 850-500 MOISTURE FORECAST TO REACH THE KGLD TERMINAL FROM
THE WEST AROUND 03Z...EXITING IN THE 06Z-07Z TIMEFRAME. FOR KMCK
IT ARRIVES AROUND 07Z AND EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10Z. LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET HEADS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT TAF
ISSUANCE TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE JET AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FLURRIES OUT AS THEY ARENT EXPECTED TO CREATE AN
AVIATION HAZARD OR BRING TERMINALS TO MVFR CATEGORIES. FRIDAY...FOR
KGLD WE SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR
KMCK THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A BKN
DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND/JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE.

AM CONCERNED ABOUT MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE PER OBS AND RUC 75+ PERCENT RH
REACHING THE KGLD TERMINAL IN THE 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE DEBATED
WHETHER OR NOT INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF
THE TAF BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT KGLD AT TAF ISSUANCE
CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE AND GUST IN THE 20-25KT RANGE
IN THE 17Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. FOR KMCK LGT/VRB WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 07KTS AT 10Z THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH
AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-22Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1135 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 CST THU NOV 13 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

A near term challenge is forecasting the coverage of clouds, which
have been a broken mix of low, mid, and high variety overnight. It
looks like the RAP model may have the best handle on the overall
pattern of cloudiness, if not necessarily the coverage (which
appeared a bit lacking in the model). The diminishing of most
cloudiness should be underway across the wrn two thirds of the PAH
forecast area by midday, with a possible resurgence in the I-64
corridor during the afternoon. It appears that the clearing pattern
is generally associated with a 700 mb trof axis which is forecast to
move ewd through the cyclonic pattern aloft. After today, opaque
cloud cover should be minimal.

An arctic air mass will continue to filter into the region through
Fri night, before easing off to the east on Sat. The mid/upper
pattern will take on brief ridging ahead of the next system. Low
level flow should have enough time to turn to the south by Sat
afternoon, giving a limited boost to temps. Measurable pcpn is
possible in the afternoon, first rainfall, then perhaps some
snowfall in the nwrn half of our region toward evening as the lower
trop cools. The area with the best chance of measuring more than a
tenth of an inch of snow will be the higher elevations of the Ozark
Foothills. Temps much below average will continue in the short term
period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

Low to medium forecast confidence in the long term with models still
not in good agreement.

Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and flow aloft becoming
more northwest should produce dry conditions through the remainder
of the long term period along with below normal temperatures.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

As an arctic air mass continues to filter into the region, substantial
cloud cover will probably linger for most of the daylight hours
and low level moisture is abundant. Latest satellite shows a decent
looking strato-cu deck heading southeast into the region. Not sure
how long this low vfr deck will stick around past 00Z, but that
will have to be watched in addition to any lowering of ceilings
after dark. If any clouds do linger into the evening/overnight,
they should clear by morning as the main trough to our north
pushes east. North to nw sustained winds around 10-12 knots with
occasional higher gusts will prevail during the day before
decreasing overnight.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1237 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

SAT WILL BE DRY/CHILLY W/ SFC HI PRES SETTLING OVR THE RGN FM THE
WNW. LIGHETER WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
40S MOST AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO MID
50S SE EXCEPT WARMING TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S FAR SE VA AND NE NC
MONDAY. HIGHS RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVC CIGS (2000-3000 FT) ARE ALREADY FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME -RA OR -DZ AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z-06Z...BEFORE PCPN
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR BUT IFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE AT RIC/SBY LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS PCPN ENDS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THEN USHER EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE FROM FRI
INTO EARLY SUN. GOOD CHC FOR MORE RAIN SUN NGT INTO MON NGT WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/LSA
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1250 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

BASED ON REPORTS OF UP TO 3.5 INCHES IN MUSKEGON COUNTY AND THAT
MKG HAS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH A SNOW INCREASE ONE AT 8 AM...
WE RECENTLY HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SCHOOL BUSES HAVING PROBLEMS
MAKING UP HILLS AND SOME EMERGENCY VEHICLES HAVING PROBLEMS
STOPPING DUE TO THE SNOW AND ICE. SO...IT MAKES SENSE INCLUDE
MUSKEGON IN THE ADVISORY. ALSO I EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE THERE
HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS YET. THEN THE SNOW WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING. I COULD SEE 5 TO 7 INCHES BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MUSKEGON COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

INLAND AREAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER
WITH THE HELP OF DAY TIME MIXING BRINGING THE SHOWER INLAND. ALSO
THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP THAT CAUSE TOO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY STAY NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ALL THREE
AFTERNOONS AND FALL INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT. CLOUDS DUE TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING MUCH COLDER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

THE COLD SNOWY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL START TO LIFT OUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AIRPORTS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE GREATER IMPACTS.
TEMPORARILY IFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
KGRR...KMKG...KAZO AND KBTL. FURTHER INLAND...WHILE IFR WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...THE RISK IS NOT ZERO.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NUMEROUS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR MOST
LIKELY FOR KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO. KBTL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE HEAVY
SNOW BANDS...BUT I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE GREATER
IMPACTS THERE.

ICING WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014

NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
050-056-064-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

1010 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...A RATHER CHILLY MORNING WAS STILL BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
ARKLAMISS AS 10AM TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE 30S AND A GUSTY
NORTH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS OUR CWA WAS RESULTING IN VERY LIT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS ALMOST EAST OF OUR CWA AND A
VERY NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY SPRINKLES HAS SHIFTED EAST OF GRANADA.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A REPORT OF LIGHT SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN WAS
NOTED IN NORTHERN BOLIVAR COUNTY WITH THIS BAND BUT NO IMPACTS
OCCURRED DUE TO THE BRIEF DURATION AND VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS. IN THE
SOUTH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS STILL HELPING PRODUCE A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND END OVER OUR CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE THROUGH. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN RISING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS THIS WITH THE UPDATE BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /22/

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT HBG THIS MORNING ALSO. EXPECT ALL SITES
TO BECOME VFR AFTER 19-20Z WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 14/00Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS FROM 15-20KTS
AT GLH/GWO BECOMING 4-8KTS OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT./15/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE COLD/DRY AIR STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF H5 TROF HAS TAPPED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALREADY...ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED
AREA OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE LA COAST...BUT THE MAJORITY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR IS ALSO INDICATING WINTRY
PRECIP OVER ARKANSAS...BUT THIS AREA SHOULD JUST GRAZE OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY AS IT RAPIDLY HEADS EAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE TWO MAIN STORIES
OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY AND THE SUBSTANTIAL COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FOLLOW EARLY
TO MID-NEXT WEEK. 1) RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE. 2)
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE MID-WEEK WITH SEVERAL HARD FREEZES LIKELY
INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S.

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.

$$
22/15/26/ALLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1228 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME FLURRIES
CONTINUING. FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...ERODING IT OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1233 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WEAK LIFT AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROF IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND
LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS TO PREVENT A SEED/FEEDER SET UP PER WEAK
ECHO RETURNS ON KILN RADAR. THE EXCEPTION IS PERHAPS THE FAR NW.
RAP/HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK SFC TROF AXIS REFLECTED AT THE
SFC...COMBINED WITH CAA OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THESE LOCATIONS. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT
FLURRY DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST CAA.
AS A RESULT...AM NOW EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE
AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...ALLOWING THE MOIST...UNSTABLE LAYER TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW DENDRITES. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
THE MID 30S EAST...SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. SYSTEMS WE WILL NEED TO
START WATCHING FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND /SEE MORE IN LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW/ WILL BE 1) DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN
ROCKIES...DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF ANOMALOUS WRN CANADA
ANTICYCLONE...AND 2) WEAKER WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. FLOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE BACKING AND FLATTENING IN THE BASAL
PORTION OF THE MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND DESPITE SOME RATHER
DECENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND. DUE TO WEAK
TRAJECTORIES/POOR MIXING ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF AREA. LIKELY TO BE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS SAT
AFTN AND WHATEVER REMNANT LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING
AROUND...BUT THIS DAY PROBABLY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE EJECTED
QUICKLY ON FAST LY FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF L/W TROUGH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE STARVED...WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED LOW/MID RANGE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MENTION OF SNOW A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS SAT
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS A GOOD DEAL WARMER ON SAT NIGHT IN
COMPARISON TO FRI NIGHT.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE BETWEEN 900 MB-850 MB IS A LITTLE
UNSTABLE AND ALSO INTERSECTING THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. AS
A RESULT...SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE FLURRIES
SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES SOME
DUE TO SURFACE COOLING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILINGS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. FOR LATER
TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WILL LINGER AS 850 MB
COLD POOL SETTLES INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

ON FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE 850 MB
COOL POOL/MOISTURE MOVE OFF DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1136 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WEAK LIFT AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROF IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND
LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS TO PREVENT A SEED/FEEDER SET UP PER WEAK
ECHO RETURNS ON KILN RADAR. THE EXCEPTION IS PERHAPS THE FAR NW.
RAP/HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK SFC TROF AXIS REFLECTED AT THE
SFC...COMBINED WITH CAA OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THESE LOCATIONS. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT
FLURRY DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST CAA.
AS A RESULT...AM NOW EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE
AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...ALLOWING THE MOIST...UNSTABLE LAYER TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW DENDRITES. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
THE MID 30S EAST...SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. SYSTEMS WE WILL NEED TO
START WATCHING FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND /SEE MORE IN LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW/ WILL BE 1) DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN
ROCKIES...DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF ANOMALOUS WRN CANADA
ANTICYCLONE...AND 2) WEAKER WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. FLOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE BACKING AND FLATTENING IN THE BASAL
PORTION OF THE MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND DESPITE SOME RATHER
DECENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND. DUE TO WEAK
TRAJECTORIES/POOR MIXING ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF AREA. LIKELY TO BE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS SAT
AFTN AND WHATEVER REMNANT LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING
AROUND...BUT THIS DAY PROBABLY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE EJECTED
QUICKLY ON FAST LY FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF L/W TROUGH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE STARVED...WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED LOW/MID RANGE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MENTION OF SNOW A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS SAT
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS A GOOD DEAL WARMER ON SAT NIGHT IN
COMPARISON TO FRI NIGHT.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS TRYING TO ERODE AWAY FROM THE
WEST WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLEARING WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. LOWER CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT ON
SATELLITE GIVEN SOME OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOWER
CLOUD CLEARING MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN ON THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE POSSIBLY
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT AM HESITANT TO
BACK AWAY FROM THE MVFR CIGS BASED ON THEIR PERSISTENCE SO FAR.
WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE CIGS TO LIFT UP INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO AT LEAST
A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

254 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND DEEPEN OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION INTO AND THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER MAKER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...OUR FOCUS WILL BE A REGION OF INSENTROPIC
LIFT THAT WILL HAVE THE CENTER OF ITS FORCING SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENTLY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN MARYLAND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
FROM ROUGHLY LONESOME PINE VIRGINIA AND POINTS NORTH...THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SNOW. POINTS SOUTH INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE HAD LIGHT RAIN. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND OUTPUT
FROM THE MESOSCALE HRRR AND RNK WRF-ARW MODELS SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING
PROGRESSION WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
SLOWLY CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ROUGHLY 600 PM. AFTER 7 OR 8 PM...THE FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROUGHLY ROANOKE VA
AND POINTS NORTH...AND THEN FARTHER EASTWARD TOWARDS BUCKINGHAM BY
1 OR 2 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WITH
A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MOST AREAS
WILL RECEIVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. ELEVATED SURFACES IN THE
WEST AND NORTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. WHILE NOT
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW.

AS OUR ENERGY FROM THIS EVENING SHIFTS TO THE COAST...IT WILL TEAM
UP WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN HUGGING THE COAST DURING THE
COURSE OF TODAY. THIS MERGER AND DEEPENING WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL BE THIS TIME WHERE OUR
REALLY GOOD SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMMENCES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND HELP MAINTAIN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE
EAST...THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR EARLY GIVEN A DECENT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS
TOO...WITH MOST REGIONS AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. SOME OF THE FORECAST HIGHS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE
WEST...ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD
LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY. SPECIFIC LOW MAXIMUM RECORDS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BE ABOUT OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH VERY COLD EARLY MORNING TEMPS
SATURDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST 85H SETTLES OVERHEAD. THIS ALONG
WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST TO
LOW/MID 20S EAST. RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST DURING SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL ON
THE COLD SIDE WITH ONLY ABOUT A 3-5+ DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS.
HOWEVER EVEN WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT INFLUX OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY HOLD TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS...MAINLY 38-45.

MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A DEVELOPING 5H TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONSET OF
BETTER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY THIN ENOUGH EARLY ON TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE 20S MOST SPOTS BUT STILL DRY. SYSTEM HEADS EAST TOWARD THE
REGION BUT QUITE DISORGANIZED INITIALLY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
PASSING TO THE NW AND THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE STILL HANGING
BACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS REMAIN
FAST TO BRING SOME LEAD LIGHT PRECIP NE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WHILE OTHERS PER THE LATEST ECMWF QUITE SLOW WITH LITTLE PRECIP AT
ALL DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER JET AND PAST HISTORY OF
WEAK LIFT SYSTEMS DEVELOPING PRECIP FASTER...LEFT IN SOME CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY FAR NW WHERE A
NAM/GFS MIX WOULD SUPPORT A MORE FROZEN SCENARIO. TEMPS TO WARM A
BIT UNDER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE INITIAL FRONT WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 40S EXCEPT LOW 50S SE.

DIGGING/AMPLIFYING 5H TROUGH WILL START TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HELP ENHANCE MOISTURE COMING NE WITH THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER JUST HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS KEY TO PRECIP COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE TEMP PROFILE ALOFT GIVEN DECENT 85H WARM
ADVECTION. LATEST GFS FASTER BUT STILL HAS BEST LIFT CLOSER TO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS WEAK SURFACE WAVES LIFT NE
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE. NEW ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM LAGGING FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ONLY SPOTTY
PRECIP. FOR NOW KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WARMER
WITH PERHAPS ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE FAR NW STAYING COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. OTRW LOWS STEADYING OUT IN THE 30S WEST TO
AROUND 40 SE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...

GENERAL FLAVOR OF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR SURGING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE PTYPE MOSTLY LIQUID
UNTIL COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER ON MONDAY...AND WE
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AS BULK OF SYNOPTIC PCPN PULLS OUT. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPES. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE RETREATS AND WE ARE QUIET AND COLD
FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR
EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A BIT BEFORE WE SEE AFFECTS OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
ABLE TO BRING STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY FOR CEILING
HEIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME LIGHT
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF
IFR FOR CIGS AND MVFR FOR VSBYS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION AROUND 04Z/11PM THIS EVENING
TAKING THE PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH IT. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15-20KT. CIGS WILL SHOW ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT THROUGH THE FORENOON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE
MOST RAPIDLY EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MAKE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LATE
NIGHT RIVER OR VALLEY FOG AND LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY -SHSN AT KBLF/KLWB INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND/OR THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS
ARE COMING IN WARMER...SO THE TREND IS FOR MORE RAIN AND LESS
WINTER PRECIPITATION THREAT. MOST WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING KLWB/KBLF TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT BY NO MEANS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. MORE
WIDESPREAD -SHSN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME...AGAIN MAINLY IMPACTING
BLF/LWB. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COOLEST HIGHS

FRI NOV 14TH

BLACKSBURG VA...35 IN 1986
BLUEFIELD WV....29 IN 1975
DANVILLE VA.....39 IN 1997
ROANOKE VA......37 IN 1976
LEWISBURG WV....30 IN 1975
LYNCHBURG VA....37 IN 1996

SAT NOV 15TH

BLACKSBURG VA...32 IN 1976
BLUEFIELD WV....23 IN 1969
DANVILLE VA.....41 IN 1986
ROANOKE VA......34 IN 1969
LEWISBURG WV....29 IN 1995
LYNCHBURG VA....36 IN 1969

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1044 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY SWING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THERE IS PERSISTENT BUT VERY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO
SOUTHERN WI WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR SCATTERED FLURRIES /OR WHATEVER TERMINOLOGY YOU
WOULD LIKE TO USE/ WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST
CENTRAL WI WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

BUFKIT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/ THROUGH THE WHOLE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTH NEAR SHEBOYGAN WHERE THERE ARE DRIER
PROFILES. I DEBATED ABOUT WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS AND WEATHER SINCE
THIS IS A HIGH-OCCURRENCE/TRACE EVENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES... WE ARE HANDLING THIS LIGHT SNOW WITH HIGH
POPS AND DEFINITE LIGHT SNOW OR SOMETHING SIMILAR.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH AND PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES WL RESULT IN
MVFR CLOUDS AT TIMES AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD VFR
LATE TNGT INTO FRI MRNG.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST THU NOV 13 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AREA OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR VORTICITY WL PASS OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI EARLY
THIS MRNG AS FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER SRN WI INTO TNGT WITH EVEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP NETWORK
SHOWING SECONDARY UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NW WI/E
CENTRAL MN REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SWINGING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. SLIGHTLY DEEPER COLUMN RH WL ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WEAK LIFT PASSES THRU. HENCE WL
CONTINUE 20-30 PERCENT POPS. PAVEMENT TEMPS NOW BELOW FREEZING SO A
LIGHT DUSTING WL BE POSSIBLE.

LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN LATE TNGT
INTO FRI. CLOUDS MAY HANG ON INTO FRI MRNG.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...BRINGING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.
THE SUNSHINE WILL NOT PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN THE COLD AIR
THOUGH...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH THERE IS NOT A TON OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...FAIRLY DEEP SATURATION OCCURS
FOR A TIME...WITH THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS
ABOUT 250-300 MB DEEP DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST LIFT. BEST
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPEST SATURATION IS EXPECTED SAT
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHEN AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH WHICH WILL BRING FLURRIES AT TIMES...BUT
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT WITH THESE WEAK WAVES TO CONSIDER
ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE EVEN A BIT
COLDER THAN THIS WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH AND PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES WL RESULT IN
MORE MVFR CLOUDS AT TIMES AND ISOLD -SHSN/FLURRIES TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATE
TNGT INTO FRI MRNG.

MARINE...

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 22 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT DESPITE SECONDARY WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS MAY AFFECT
SGNW3 BUT FOR THE MOST POINT BORDERLINE SITUATION WITH MOST GUSTS
REMAINING BELOW ADVY LEVELS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV