Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/12/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

933 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODELS
NOW INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
FROM LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD ROLL THROUGH DENVER AROUND 2 PM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST...SINCE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED AS THE UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SNOWFALL TO BE LIGHT WHEN IT DEVELOPS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL
BE GETTING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

STRONG POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC
FRONT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SERN MONTANA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. LACK OF
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND A JET NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK OF FORWARD PROGRESS IN THIS FRONT.
ABOUT A 40DEG F TEMP GRADIENT THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
CROSS MTN PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED SOME...BUT WITH THE MTN
WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE HAVE NOTICED A STEADY
INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY
PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE CROSS MTN WINDS STRENGTHENING AS THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE POLAR JET PASSES OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
THE MTN WAVE REFORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
X-SECTION WIND COMPONENT NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL MAXING OUT AROUND 65
KTS AROUND 12Z/MONDAY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED AT MTN TOP LEVEL AND UPPER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT
RANGE. HOWEVER WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT NEARING...MODELS SHOW WIND
SPEEDS ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
MILD...ESPLY IN THE WINDIER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
BY MORNING MORNING...NAM...WRF...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOW THE ARCTIC
FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE CWA AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS SPREADING OVER
THE PLAINS. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SHOULD SEE PRECIP STEADILY
INCREASING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE WITH THE POLAR JET PASSING OVERHEAD. COULD SEE HIGH
WINDWARD SLOPES RECEIVING 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES BY
AFTERNOON. BACK TO THE PLAINS...MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE BY AROUND
18Z...THEN RACING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30-40KT NLY WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW TO START OUT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL THE COLD AIR RUNS UP
AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE PASSING JET COULD PRODUCE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW UP AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS...ACRS PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY 6 PM MST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY DARK.
AGAIN THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WAS NEVER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
SNOW...JUST VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK LEADING TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEK. FOR
MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH JUST LINGERING FLURRIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMP READINGS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 20 DEGREES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
WITH BEST SHOT OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OF THE WEEK FOR ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL
WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE WITH JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WY AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE BARELY MAKE 10 DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO
THE COLD AIRMASS WHILE THE MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. PACIFIC
ORIGIN MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
EXPECT SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND A BIT MORE IFFY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPER TROF DEVELOPING
OVER GREAT BASIN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWING A WEAK AND
MORE OPEN TROF IN NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PERIOD FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 21Z/2 PM MST. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AND THEN CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR/LOW MVFR BY EVENING
AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...SWE
AVIATION...DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1246 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT
UNTIL AROUND 10-12Z THIS MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
SHOWER BUT VSBY SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR GREATER. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CLEARING SKY AND
RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. SURFACE WIND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
NW OR NNW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KOB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/

UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND MORE RECENT GUIDANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF WITH THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THERE IS ALSO A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE POP`S WERE INCREASED TO INDICATE SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THE
RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH POP`S OF 6O TO
70 ASSIGNED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING THEN
PASS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY THEN EXIT THE REGION AFTER 18Z
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS FORECAST ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE 24 HR CYCLE.
CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME IS SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO TELL. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH MSAS SURFACE THETA E
ANALYSIS SEEM TO PLACE THE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST TO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. FORCING/ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINS WEAK
BEING WELL AHEAD OF THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO BE STRONG. WHAT STORMS REMAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS STILL PROJECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT
AS IT SWINGS THROUGH.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA. DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FILTER
INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. BY WEDNESDAY A DRY FRONT SHOULD SWING DOWN
THE PENINSULA DROPPING PWATS TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE.

MODELS STILL HINT AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA...A FEW ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE EXITING EAST COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. -RA IN TAFS
UNTIL 0Z FOR NAPLES...AND 8-12Z EAST COAST. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY
WILL WANE. MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BOTH VSBY AND CIGS HAVE
PERIODICALLY OCCURRED AT TERMINALS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
3-4KFT CIGS IN TAFS. N TO NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4-6 FEET
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
911 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Clouds over the area and based on satellite trends, believe clouds
will remain over the area overnight and into tomorrow morning.
Models try to break the clouds up overnight, but models do not
have a good handle on the current situation. Current forecast
looks ok, so if any changes, they will be minor and no update is
planned at this time.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Deepening 1001 mb low pressure over northern lower MI as cold front
tracks along OH/IN border into nw KY. This was giving blustery
wnw winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph across central IL
this afternoon. Low pressure lifts ne of the Great Lakes region
tonight while strong 1049 mb Canadian high over Alberta ridges
into the Great Plains and noses into IL by dawn Wed. Tight
pressure gradient over central IL this afternoon weakens tonight
and Wed, so expect NW winds to diminish to 8-15 mph this evening
and continues into Wed morning. A large canopy of stratocumulus
clouds with MVFR ceilings covers IL, IA and central and ne MO.
HRRR and RAP models lingers these low clouds over central IL this
evening, though low clouds breaking up during this evening in
southeast IL, and currently happening in southeast MO. Low clouds
will take longer to diminish over ne areas later tonight or during
Wed morning. Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 30s with
Galesburg and Macomb at 32F. These readings are actually closer to
normal lows for mid November. Stayed close to similar MAV/MET cold
lows tonight in the lower 20s over central IL with mid 20s in
southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Pattern over North America settling into a highly amplified stable
regime, which translates to a rather long duration of below normal
temperatures for our area. A Rex block setting up over northwest
Canada into parts of Alaska producing a classic cross Polar flow
through northern and central Canada, draining right into the good
ole U.S. for the remainder of this week and into early next week,
at least. We lose the closed upper high at 500 mb but retain more
of a omega block across western Canada by late in the weekend and
into early next week with a deep upper low just north of Lake
Superior with 500 mb temps around -45 degrees C. This deep and cold
trof more or less is the anchor trof over the hemisphere influencing
the smaller shortwaves and sensible weather over the lower 48. As
we head into the end of this forecast period and beyond, the ECMWF
suggests some relaxation in the pattern as the flow over western
Canada becomes more zonal, which should bottle up the very cold
air over northern Canada as we head into late next week. The flow
over the lower 48 should become more zonal as well which will lead
to a gradual moderating trend as we head into the third week of
November.

As far as specifics are concerned during this period, we should be
rather cold but with very little if any snow through early Saturday
as the large Canadian high slowly settles southeast into the Plains
by Thu and Friday. Several weak vort maxes are forecast to rotate
southeast around the deep and cold trof to our north bringing more
clouds from time to time, but no significant precip other than
flurries. At this time, not seeing enough evidence to add any mention
of flurries as once such shortwave moves thru the area later Thursday
into early Friday. Most of the better lift is forecast to remain
north of the area. Once the wave shifts to our east, a reinforcing
shot of cold air will push across the area with the coldest temps at
850 mb forecast over our area by Friday morning when models indicate
-12 to -14 C will reside over the Midwest. As the center of the cold
shifts off to our east later Saturday, return flow should setup
bringing an increase in clouds ahead of a pair of weather disturbances
bringing the threat for light snow to the area Saturday night into
Sunday.

Models showing some moisture return ahead of the waves for late Sat.
into Sunday, but it appears the more significant precip should remain
along the Gulf Coast into Sunday where the stronger baroclinic zone
will be located ahead of the southern stream wave. The northern stream
wave doesn`t look as significant but we should be able to squeeze out
a tenth of two of moisture, which may lead to some light accumulating
snows for parts of our area Saturday night into Sunday. Once the system
shifts off to our east late in the weekend and into early next week,
another reinforcing push of Canadian air will filter south into our
area keeping temperatures well below normal. The large cold 500 mb trof
will then begin to edge slowly off the east just after this forecast
period with ensembles suggesting another rather vigorous southern
stream shortwave interacting with the low level baroclinic zone over
the Gulf Coast region sending a large area of precip northeast, mainly
along and south of the Ohio River Valley late next week with most
of the ensemble members suggesting no phasing occurring with the
northern stream trof.

So the cold will hang on for a while, but other than the light snowfall
expected later Saturday into Sunday, no major weather systems are
expected to affect the region. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 30s,
where average highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s. Look
for early morning lows in the upper teens north to the lower or middle
20s far southeast, with normal morning lows in the mid to upper 30s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Area will remain in cyclonic flow for most of the 24hrs period
with around 2kft of moisture trapped in the flow and below the
inversion setting up this evening. Could be some scattering
out of the clouds tomorrow, but with another trough/surge of
colder air coming into the area, not confident that the surface
ridge trying to build into the area will have any effect on
breaking up the clouds. So, have decided to keep overcast skies in
the forecast for all 5 TAF sites through the next 24hrs. Cigs will
remain around 2kft across the area through the period, with BMI
being lower due to elevation of airport. Some fluctuation either
side of 2kft is possible at all sites through the period. Winds
will remain out of the northwest through the period with speeds of
12-15kts possible through the evening and then again tomorrow.
Overnight winds should be a little lighter and gusts should
diminish this evening.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

859 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
256 PM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND ITS COLD FRONT IS EAST
OF THE CWA OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
OVER JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED DRIZZLE AND/OR FLURRIES ARE OVER NORTHEAST IL AND THEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE WEATHER THEN GOES ON REPEAT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ON THE MICHIGAN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA. WENT WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14C THURSDAY...
DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE 20S. THICK
CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20. MIN WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 10
DEGREES.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
256 PM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. A LARGE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY.

THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE CWA FRIDAY BEFORE REACHING THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO
MENTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID RAISE POPS ABOVE SUPERBLEND TO
REFLECT GREATER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE. SNOW SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PORTER COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S. THE /WARMEST DAY/ LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO
PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH COLD
AIR SPREADING IN ON GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 280-300 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED LIGHT DRIZZLE/SHRA HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS CURRENTLY RISING ABOVE 2000 FT AGL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE 2500 FT RANGE LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING OF MVFR CIGS WED.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF --SN OR -SHSN
THURSDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CHC SNOW. MONDAY...VFR.

RATZER

.MARINE...
237 PM CST

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEK...GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE
LAKE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
537 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

933 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

A TASTE OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
EVEN TEENS WILL BE THE RULE WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPILLING COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

HRRR AND RAP SHOW POSTFRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SLOWING DOWN A BIT AS
THEY MOVE EAST AND THEREFORE RAIN MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
AREA BY 0Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR EAST FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE GOING DRY EVERYWHERE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. POSTFRONTAL
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALSO THOUGH
AND THIS...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS PREVENTING DECOUPLING...WILL KEEP
THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WERE VERY SIMILAR AND AN AVERAGE WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP COLD
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN DRY. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD COME ON
THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THE AIR WILL BE PRETTY DRY. AT THIS TIME NO MODELS ARE PUTTING ANY
QPF OVER THE AREA AND MOS POPS ARE DRY. THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION
AT THIS TIME IS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND MONITOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE MERITS A
FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MENTION.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS...BUT DID DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THAT FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS BASED ON COLD ADVECTION AND
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE WINTER PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION SHOWING ABSOLUTELY NO SIGNS OF RELENTING
OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TO START THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. REINFORCING
BLAST OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WITH THE POLAR JET. MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT KEEPING THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY MINIMAL
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT GULF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
NORTH. WITH THAT BEING SAID...FORCING ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL A BIT EARLY IN THE
PROCESS...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PINWHEEL INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
IN RESPONSE AND THE RENEWED AND COLDER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
POTENTIAL THAT TEMPS HOLD IN THE 20S BY NEXT TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO END IN SIGHT TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS AT IND. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OR
FLUCTUATING SUSTAINED WINDS SO WILL CONTINUE GUST MENTION BUT LOWER
SPEED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 619 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPACT THE SITES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A BREAKUP OF THESE CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE DEPENDING ON THE SITE. SOME QUESTION AS
TO WHETHER THE CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON A BIT LONGER AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT DRY IT OUT AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.

THIN BAND OF IFR CEILINGS POST FRONT HAVE EXITED ALL BUT IND AND
WILL DO SO THERE PRIOR TO EFFECTIVE TIME OF THE TAF...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY IFR.

WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH. GUSTS
LIKELY TO END BY LATE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

619 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

THIN BAND OF IFR CEILINGS POST FRONT HAVE EXITED ALL BUT IND AND
WILL DO SO THERE PRIOR TO EFFECTIVE TIME OF THE TAF...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY IFR.

WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH. GUSTS
LIKELY TO END BY LATE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1253 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE LAST PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60. A SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED
BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

LAST OF BENIGN NEAR TERM FORECASTS FOR AWHILE. ARDENT HEIGHT
RISES ACRS ONT/GRTLKS TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT MINOR PERTURBATIONS
LEADING TO SPRINKLES FARTHER NWD BY DAYBREAK. AMID A MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR HAVE DOUBLE DOWNED ON WARMER TREND OF
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...SELECTIVELY RAISING WRN/NWRN CWA THE
MOST PER RUC13 PROGGED 925MB THERMAL SURGE TO 12-13C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON HIR TEMPS...GIVEN DIURNAL CURVE
ALREADY FLATTENED OUT PRESENTLY AND MOST SIG WARMER WITH 24 HR
CHANGES ON ORDER OF LOWER TEENS F. INCRSG INSOLATION WITH MEAGER
COLUMN MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON/MIXING OUT TO NEAR 3KFT.

COHESIVE UPSTREAM TROFFING AS INTENSE INTERMOUNTAIN ENERGY
ARTFULLY ENVELOPED BY SHORTWAVE DESCENDING SWD THROUGH ALB/SASK.
INTENSE LEESIDE/PLAINS CYCLOGENETIC EFFECT AS INTENSE HFC ON
ORDER OF 150-200M/12HR DIVES SEWD FM SRN ID INTO CNTL ROCKIES
LATER TODAY. FRONTAL WAVE LOW EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTL LK MI BY 12
UTC TUE...WITH FALTERED/FAST GFS TIMING EXCLUDED. CONTD TREND OF
WARMER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HONED GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTD
MIXED BLYR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
NCEP MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER ON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE BEST
SUPPORT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 3 FOR TUESDAY. IN THIS REGARD...LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES A LITTLE TUESDAY...BUT KEPT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS.
KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN NAM/BUFKIT PROFILES THAT
INDICATED THERE ARE NO CLOUDS IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FOR NOW...
LEFT OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT THE OPTION TO
INTRODUCE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...VERY COLD AIR WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. MADE SOME MOSTLY MINOR UPDATES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY WITH A MARGINAL
FETCH...BUT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG AND DELTA T
VALUES AROUND 20C. KEPT TEMPERATURES COLD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BASED ON
MODEL GUIDANCE AND PAST CLIMATOLOGY. A SECOND EVEN COLDER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
NORTHERN INDIANA REMAINS IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR OF APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. PERIOD OF LLWS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
STRONG LLJ RAMPS UP. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
WILL ARRIVE AT KSBN LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AT KFWA BY THE VERY
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. BRIEF FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT WILL HOLD WITH HIGH END MVFR FOR
NOW GIVEN IT IS STILL ROUGHLY 24 HOURS AWAY AND CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING/IMPACTS IS NOT HIGH YET.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

655 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

VFR MET CONDITIONS THOUGH ATTENTION GIVEN TO RAMPING SRLY FLOW AS
WARM SECTOR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACRS NRN IN TODAY. PERIOD
OF LLWS WITH MODEST DECOUPLING/RAMP OF LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...WITH LESSENED CONCERN BY DAYBREAK AS SFC FLOW
VEERS SLIGHTLY AND STRONGEST 2KFT AGL FLOW SHIFTS EWD INTO NWRN
OH. SIG CHANGES WITH LATER FORECAST ITERATIONS...WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST TO FINE TUNE WIND SHIFT ASSOCD WITH MARKED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS WITH SIG
LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS...POTNLY INTO IFR RANGE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

454 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

GRADUAL DECAY OF LOW LEVEL JET ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA...ESPCLY NWRN
IN HAS ALLOWED FOR REMOVAL OF LLWS. OTHERWISE VFR MET CONDITIONS
TO RULE ACRS NRN IN THROUGH THE FORECAST PD.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

434 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

WELL DVLPD AND PERSISTENT PNA PATTN XPCD THIS PD...YIELDING WELL
BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND CHCS FOR LK EFFECT SNOW.

PRIMARY FTR OF NOTE IS INTENSE BUT SPLITTING UPR TROUGH OVR NE MB
THIS AFTN DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH INTENSE HIGH LAT RIDGING EXTENDING
UP ACRS THE YUKON/ARCTIC OCEAN AND SLOWLY DECAYING BERING SEA
BOMB. WWD SPLIT WILL INDUCE A POTENT FNTL WAVE ALG SWD PLUNGING
ARCTIC BNDRY EARLY NXT WEEK W/CRASHING TEMPS XPCD AS STG CAA WING
WRAPS SEWD IN WAKE OF NEWD EJECTING CYCLONE. SHAPE/INTENSITY OF
UPR TROUGH STILL UNCERTAIN W/FAIR AMT OF SPREAD YET HWVR MOST
FVRBL PARAMETERS FOR LK EFFECT INDICATED FOR THU IN ASSOCN/W
LAKES PIVOT OF UPR TROUGH AXIS. OTRWS SIG NEG HGT ANOMALIES CNTRD
NR JAMES BAY XPCD TO PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. SECONDARY POTENT
ARCTIC STREAM SW PROGGED TO AMPLIFY SWD TWD NXT WEEKEND
W/SUCCESSIVE EVEN COLDER ARCTIC INTRUSION XPCD WITHIN DEEP CROSS
POLAR FLW REGIME ORIGINATING OUT OF SIBERIA. H85 TEMPS SD OF -2
TO -3 WOULD PORTEND TEMPS OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES BLO NORMAL AGAIN
DYS 9-12.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

GRADUAL DECAY OF LOW LEVEL JET ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA...ESPCLY NWRN
IN HAS ALLOWED FOR REMOVAL OF LLWS. OTHERWISE VFR MET CONDITIONS
TO RULE ACRS NRN IN THROUGH THE FORECAST PD.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

249 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

20Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic mid and upper level
flow over North America. Within the flow, a shortwave was moving
across the central Rockies. A very strong cold front connected to
cold arctic air continues to push southeast through the forecast
area. From the 12Z TOP RAOB, a dry airmass was in place over the
forecast area this morning and there has been little moisture
advection into the area do to low level trajectories from the
southwestern U.S.

The forecast seems to be on track for tonight and have not made many
major changes to it. The one change was to remove any mention of
drizzle from the forecast. The low stratus deck has been slow to
move south with the front and current visible imagery shows the low
clouds lagging the front by 40 to 50 miles so the clouds should be
well removed from the frontal circulation. With strong downglide
progged by the models, think there will not be any vertical motion
for the formation of drizzle. The short term models however still
try to saturate mid levels just long enough for a narrow band of
light snow, mainly across central and western KS. The GFS actually
shows the better frontogenetical forcing, but it also has more dry
air between the forcing and the surface. Think this is the reason it
does not have any QPF. Therefore have maintained a slight chance for
light snow overnight. Limited moisture and duration of the forcing
with the mid level saturation suggests that flurries or a dusting is
most likely overnight. This forcing pushes east and south of the
area by Tuesday morning. Regarding the winds, models still show a
very strong pressure gradient behind the front and recent obs
indicate that 3 hr pressure rises of 5+ mb are occurring across
western KS. Therefore see no need to make any changes to the wind
advisory and will let the evening shift make any adjustments as needed.

Tuesday is on track to be much colder with persistent cold air
advection through the day. Think that skies should become mostly
sunny by the late morning, but do not think the insolation will have
a dramatic impact on daytime temps. Therefore have highs in the
lower and mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

Low level cold air advection slowly weakens with time Tuesday night
into Wednesday night. Confidence in high temps is somewhat higher
than for lows given good daytime mixing in the gusty north to
northwest winds and good model agreement. Cloud trends and how much
the mixing can persist into the night complicate the low temperature
forecast. Recent MOS output trending noticeably colder in recent runs
and have trended down, but haven`t gone quite as cold so far given
the CAA expected to keep some mixing in place Tuesday night and some
clouds persisting into Wednesday night as weak upper wave rotates
through the longwave trough.

Temperatures should modify slightly through the late week periods as
high pressure moves east, out of the Plains. ECMWF and GFS are
fairly consistent in bringing a modest upper wave east from the
Pacific and into the Central Plains around Saturday. With the
current front passing south through the southern states, moisture
availability will continue to be a challenge for this feature to
produce precipitation. There continues to be differences in this
wave`s strength and timing and that of another potential wave
coming south out of the Northern Rockies not far behind, but GFS
ensembles have trended wetter. Will continue with lower PoPs
Saturday into Saturday night with temperatures continuing to
support snow as the primary phase. Another cold shot looks to come
with this second wave for early next week and keep temps well
below normal.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014

Main concern is whether CIGS will come in below 3 KFT. RAP and NAM
forecast soundings show MVFR CIGS are likely. However the MOS
guidance keeps CIGS VFR for the most part and the stratus deck
across NEB appears to be eroding on the southern edge. Hard to go
against the forecast soundings, but will be monitoring obs
upstream to see how the stratus progresses. Fairly confident CIGS
will not go below 2 KFT. Timing of the FROPA is real close to the
prev forecast. And confidence in precip at the terminals is to low
to mention at this time. If there is any precip, it will likely be
flurries or light snow during the overnight hours with little if
any accumulation.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.

WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ010>012-022>024-
035>038-054.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1132 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EMERGE ONTO
THE PLAINS TODAY USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SEPARATES
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S FROM THOSE IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR OMAHA...FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW PEAK WIND
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE 35 TO 45KT RANGE. AN
ISOLATED GUST TO 50KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DO NOT THINK THE
WINDS WARRANT A WARNING. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST...BUT
LOOKING BACK AT PAST FRIDAY WHICH WAS SIMILARLY WINDY THERE WAS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BLOWING DUST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BEST FORCING ARRIVES THIS EVENING BUT BY THEN COLDER AND
MUCH DRYER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES...BUT BY 06Z IT SHOULD BE DONE. WARM GROUND WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALL IN ALL...EXPECTING AN
INCH OR LESS WITH BEST CHANCES IN EASTERN COLORADO.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AFTER TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL START MOVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.

DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RESUME AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

850 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO VALUES THAT WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MCK AND GLD ARE NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. BETWEEN 01-04Z A FEW
FLURRIES TO VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS THE AIRMASS
SATURATES AND THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT SINCE IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION. AFTER 06Z...WIND SPEEDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAISE AND
BREAK UP WITH A MUCH COLDER AND DRYER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FJS
AVIATION...LOCKHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1041 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014

Early Monday morning, a vigorous short wave trough was quickly
diving southeast through Idaho with surface low pressure deepening
along the front range of the Rockies in Wyoming and Colorado, and
developing east into central Nebraska. A 40+ kt low level jet had
developed over eastern KS, and as this mixes out after sunrise,
parts of east central KS within the strongest pressure gradient
could see some wind gusts above 30 mph. The true surge of cold air
was becoming evident moving out of Montana and into Wyoming this
morning, and will continue to rapidly surge southeast through
tonight. In advance of the cold front, temperatures will warm up
nicely and by noon should be around 60 degrees. Much of the area
will continue to warm to near 70 through the afternoon, but the cold
front is expected to enter Republic county around 1 PM and pass
through Abilene, Manhattan, and Hiawatha by 4 PM. Temperatures will
almost immediately, and rather drastically, fall behind the front
while winds will increase through the afternoon. The post-frontal
pressure gradient is rather intense, as is the airmass density
difference, and see a good chance for winds to exceed wind advisory
criteria (sustained 30 mph, gusts 45 mph) especially northwest of a
Council Grove to Holton line. Wind fields seem a bit stronger in
these areas overall and frontal passage during the afternoon should
promote slightly stronger gusts...but it will be windy behind the
front regardless of your location and there is some chance for
advisory criteria to be met farther southeast as well. Will let the
day shift address these areas if needed as the cold front
approaches. Temperatures will continue to fall through the night
into the 20s.

Regarding precipitation, the overall chances for anything more than
sprinkles or flurries remain quite low. There is plenty of lift
immediately along the front, but very limited moisture to work with.
Any saturation looks to occur above the fairly shallow front, around
3000 feet, with dry air below limiting drizzle potential. Could
still see a few light rain showers associated with the front though,
with potential increasing slightly into east central KS. Of a bit
more interest is a band of mid level frontogenesis well behind the
front that is forecast to align with a bit of moisture in the
dendritic growth zone. This relatively narrow zone of lift and
limited moisture may be sufficient to develop a band of light snow
mainly north of a Council Grove to Lawrence line between midnight
and 6 AM. While some models produce QPF in this period and others do
not, even the "dry" models indicate this band of enhanced
lift/moisture. If this does result in light snow at the surface, the
band would translate eastward fairly quickly and little more than a
dusting of snow on grassy/elevated surfaces would be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014

By Tuesday morning, models show a mid-level low closing off over
Montana and North Dakota with a deep, broad trough in place across the
western two-thirds of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure will
come spilling into the Northern and Central Plains behind Monday`s
frontal passage. While models show the closed-off mid-level low
shifting eastward across the Great Lakes region and further to the
northeast by the latter part of the week, the broad mid-level trough
feature will still be in place through much of the week with the
forecast area remaining under the influence of surface high
pressure. Behind Monday`s frontal passage, breezy northerly winds
will persist through the day on Tuesday, resulting in strong CAA and
high temperatures only reaching into the mid/upper 30s, which is
actually closer to what the average low temperatures are for this time
of year. As the surface high strengthens over the region mid-week,
expect the coolest conditions to occur Wednesday into Thursday as
persistent CAA from the northerly winds continue to reinforce the
cold airmass in place. The development of some mid-level clouds on
Wednesday will further hinder temperatures with highs only expected
to reach into the upper 20s to low/mid 30s. Low temperatures through
the week will be frigid with readings in the teens and 20s. As the
surface high gradually shifts eastward over the area by the end of
the week into the weekend, expect a very slight increase in
temperatures as highs may get into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees by this weekend. However, there are notable model
discrepancies in the weekend forecast as models seem to be struggling with
the evolution of the next mid-level trough that should dive into the
central U.S. during the Friday through Sunday time frame. There are
significant differences in the timing and tracking of this trough,
which are resulting in variations in the forecast temperatures and
potential for precipitation. While models agree that this advancing
trough will help to push a cold front through the region sometime on
Saturday, there are discrepancies with if and where any
precipitation may develop. Also, with the GFS/GEM models trending
warmer than the ECMWF for this weekend, these temperature
discrepancies result in uncertainty in what the precipitation type
would be if any light precipitation developed across the region on
Saturday. As a result, have gone with a chance for rain and snow on
Saturday with a slight chance for snow Saturday night before drying
out for Sunday.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.

WIND ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to Midnight CST tonight
FOR KSZ010>012-022>024-035>038.

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

423 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 15Z AND
17Z...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KTS AND GUSTING TO 40KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. KMCK
MAY SEE A BRIEF MVFR CEILING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FJS
AVIATION...024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z AND AFTER 03Z WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE 23Z-02Z TIMEFRAME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-12KTS (HIGHEST AT KGLD) EXPECTED AT TAF
ISSUANCE WITH A VEER TO THE WEST 10KTS IN THE 09Z-10Z TIMEFRAME.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
16Z OR SO BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH 20Z. FROM 21Z-00Z NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 40-45KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER EXPECTED AS STRONGEST 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS. AFTER 00Z WINDS SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY DECREASE. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
21Z BUT SHORTLY AFTER THAT CIGS WILL LOWER AND POSSIBLY BECOME
MVFR IN THE 21Z-02Z TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ALSO WHEN A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO BOTH TERMINALS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED BLOWING DUST IN THE 17Z-21Z TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THREAT A BIT.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FJS
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1000 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO 00Z NAM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL EXPECTING ARCTIC FRONT TO INITIALLY REACH YUMA COUNTY AROUND
18Z THEN RACE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND CURRENT FORECAST IS POSSIBLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN AS 00Z NAM COLDER THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WONT MAKE
HUGE CHANGES BASED ON ONE 00Z MODEL RUN. 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE
COUPLET OF 10-17MB SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FROM 12Z NAM SHOWING A PLUME OF RATHER HIGH
DUST CONCENTRATIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN MCCOOK AND NORTH PLATTE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RACING SOUTH TOWARD COLBY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND A BIT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN
HWOGLD PRODUCT.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH AN 850-500MB BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING
FROM FLAGLER EAST THROUGH GOODLAND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD MCCOOK
SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN
NO CHANGES MADE BUT RIGHT NOW OUR PRECIP FORECAST MAY BE A FEW
HOURS LONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. SOMETHING TO BRIEF
THE INCOMING SHIFT.

INTERESTING SIDE NOTE...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE IN GOODLAND
WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 12 IS 18 DEGREES SET IN 1940. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR 21 DEGREES. WILL BE CLOSE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG 490DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM EASTERN WYOMING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE LINE...WITH THE ARCTIC ARI MASS ALREADY
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHER NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURE AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE SEE WINDS GUST AROUND 20
MPH...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THIS IS PROBABLY THE
EXTENT OF THE WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
MPH. DESPITE RH VALUES ALREADY 15 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA...IT JUST DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS REACH THE
25 MPH/3HR CRITERIA BEFORE SUNSET AND EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE WIDESPREAD. NO RFW IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW WITH ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE PLAINS AND HELP KICK THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND TRACKED THIS FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND DELAYS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH...HOWEVER MAIN COLD SURGE WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS DECEPTIVE...BECAUSE HIGH TEMPS (WILE
UNSEASONABLY MILD) WILL BE BEFORE MIDDAY WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT IN AREA OF BETTER PRESSURE
RISES COULD SUPPORT WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT MIXING (WHICH ALSO COMPLICATED DIURNAL WARMING)...SO WHILE
WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(58MPH)...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
UPDATE.

REGARDING PRECIP...GOOD FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNALS...SO I
KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 21Z TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH ADJUSTED
TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF PRECIP FAVORING SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT THE MOST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THE FLOW. WITH THE COLD AIR PUSHED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES
AND THE SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...WHICH
MAY EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN-
MOST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
INITIALLY LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND DOES NOT CARVE OUT THE NEXT
TROUGH AS DEEPLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM A
DEEPER SINGLE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ANY ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AM
CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH ONLY
VERY SLIGHT WARMING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TENDED TO STICK WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z AND AFTER 03Z WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE 23Z-02Z TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ALSO ADDED BLOWING DUST IN THE 17Z-21Z TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THREAT A BIT.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

540 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Strong cold front moved through the area today, bringing some light
rain/drizzle to the region. A particularly cold air mass is spilling
into the region behind the front. Any lingering areas of rain should
be exiting the area by 00Z Wednesday so will leave tonight`s
forecast dry. This dry weather will continue through the end of the
week.

Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region
tonight with cold air advection in full force. A strong upper level
closed low over eastern Montana and western North Dakota this
morning will move east toward the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday
morning and then eventually make its way into eastern Canada. As
this happens, a trough dive south into the eastern third of the
nation, which will allow for the cold air to infiltrate the region.

Therefore, the main challenges in the short term will be cloud cover
(at least for tonight into tomorrow) and temperatures. Will be
watching the clearing line closely to see if it indeed will keep
tracking eastward across the CWA this evening. Model time heights
and soundings indicate some lingering low level moisture, so this
will have to be watched. The RUC tries to clear out the southwestern
parts of our CWA early this evening, but later in the evening, it
could cloud back up. After some coordination with neighboring
offices, will probably have to go a bit more pessimistic with cloud
cover at least this evening. It appears as though the clouds should
break up by tomorrow morning.

Strong cold air advection will continue on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. So, despite some sunshine, highs will only be in the upper
30s to lower 40s with a 10 to 15 mph wind, as H85 temps plummet
below zero by 00Z Thursday. Highs will be even lower on Thursday and
only be in the 30s. This will be a very dry airmass as well, with
dewpoints going down into the teens by Thursday. By Thursday night,
the center of the sfc high should be positioned just to our west
which should set the stage for one of our coldest nights this week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Focus will be on persistent colder than normal temperatures, and
the chance of light wintry precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday. Having watched the models since Saturday, the GFS has been
the more consistent model in general terms with the pattern
evolution, more in line with previous ensemble mean solutions.
Meanwhile the ECMWF, especially after evaluating the 12z version
continues to exhibit more run to run inconsistency. Therefore
more weight will be given to the GFS.

First, looking at the weekend precipitation. Believe the colder
GFS solution is the way to go given the degree of cold air within
this pattern. Both models show a subtle H7/H5 wave moving ENE
across the area Saturday night. Could be some very light precip
into SEMO by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night, a swath of light
precip / QPF expected somewhere across the CWFA. Again, ECMWF 00z
run showed hardly anything, then the 12z run ramps up QPF (a bit
too extreme with the changes). Precip type Saturday night should
be mainly light snow. May be borderline toward the TN border,
largely dependent on the strength of the H8 flow from the SSW,
which isn`t that impressive per the GFS. A second swath of
moisture and light QPF/precip expected Sunday with the parent H5
wave forecast to move across the Mississippi Valley region toward
the Ohio Valley region. Best chances Sunday will be from SW
Indiana into west KY, only slight chances west into SEMO, southern
IL. Colder solutions again depict mainly light snow. Though,
should some boundary layer warming occur briefly Sunday, may be a
mix with rain into west KY. We generally don`t talk specifics
this far out, with respect to wintry precip (in particular
amounts). Still too soon to say, given temps Sunday back up into
the mid 30s, some upper 30s (above freezing). And Saturday night,
QPF, for the most part, has been forecast to be "light", more
often than not. PoPs will be kept in the chance category, but
upped slightly.

Otherwise, dry weather Friday through most of Saturday. In the
wake of the system on Sunday, dry/cold weather for Sunday night
through Tuesday, with an active flow pattern continuing with the
mean broad trof over the east 2/3 of the CONUS.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 539 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Will give the MVFR rain a few hours to clear out of KOWB this
evening. A dry slot has resulted in clear skies over much of
southeast Missouri, and what ever cloud cover is left near KCGI is
VFR. Figure this clearing trend will progress eastward to KPAH in
the next hour or two, but it will not impact KEVV and KOWB.

Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR/2-3KFT ceilings over
eastern Missouri and much of Illinois that appears to be pushing a
bit to the southeast. This will keep MVFR ceilings through the
night at KEVV and KOWB, and it may bring them back to KCGI and
even KPAH later this evening. Played the ceiling forecast
optimistically at KCGI and KPAH, and will continue to monitor.
Skies should clear out from late tonight through early Wednesday.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

641 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

THE 21Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE
OF INTEREST LIFTING E-NE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONG
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM SNOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING STRONG HOWEVER ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR COUNTIES AIDED BY A UPSLOPE NNE FLOW...THIS IS
ESPECIALLY EVIDENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES WHERE
THE RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITY AT OR ABV 30 DBZ.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN WAS ONGOING WSW HEADLINES.
SINCE SNOW HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TIER
COUNTIES HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR IRON THROUGH
SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DECIDED TO TRANSITION FM WINTER STORM
WARNINGS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES OVER NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND
LUCE COUNTIES AS THE HEAVIER SYSTEM SNOW HAS EXITED EAST AND NE FLOW
WILL LIMIT LES ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
WINDS BACK FM NNE TO MORE NW. EXPECT LES ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO
-13C LEADING TO LAKE DELTA-T NEAR 18C.

HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL FCST AREA AS NNE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. STRONGLY CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH 12-15 KFT WILL
FAVOR MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES...PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAVIEST LES SNOW
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE THE FAR WRN COUNTIES LATE AS FLOW BACKS TO
NW. SNOW GROWTH WILL NOT BE IDEAL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST
OMEGA/LIFT BELOW THE DGZ. MODELS INDICATE SNOW/WATER RATIOS AVERAGED
NEAR 15/1 THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF GEENRALLY FM
.2 TO .5 INCHES...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE
WARNING COUNTIES. MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SNOW
TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR AS FLOW BACKS TO NW.
COULD EASILY SEE THESE COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE WARNING
COUNTIES TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND WINDS DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE
U.P. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH. THIS
ALONG WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH...WILL ALLOW DELTA T VALUES TO INCREASE TO 18 TO
20C...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS
THIS COLDER AIR PUSHES ACROSS...THIS WILL ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10KFT...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE IN THE DGZ...
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOW GROWTH. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE
LARGELY FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS OF THE U.P.
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN U.P. SEEING SOME OF THE
GREATER TOTALS ALONG WITH AREAS EAST OF THE HARVEY AND MARQUETTE
AREAS OUT TO NEAR GRAND MARAIS DUE TO THE INCREASED FETCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE TOTALS APPROACH A
FOOT NEAR MUNISING AND EAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE SNOW RATIOS INCREASE. A
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR
ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF AT
THIS POINT TO KEEP FROM HAVING MULTIPLE HEADLINES OUT FOR THE SAME
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS SLOWLY OUT OF
THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING NORTH AND
EASTWARD FROM MISSOURI...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL HINTING AT
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN WITH THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL AGAIN HELP TO
LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER HUDSON BAY ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH TO
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER MONTANA...WHILE ANOTHER HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD PUT THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN A SADDLE POINT REGION WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST WEAK
F-GEN. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ANALYZING 850MB THETA-E ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IN THAT LAYER. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD...EXPECT DELTA-T VALUES TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO
AROUND 18 TO 20C ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WOULD BE OVER THE WEST WIND FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...EXPECT CONTINUED BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

ALTHOUGH THE LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT BOUT OF HEAVY SN IS
DEPARTING TO THE E...LINGERING MOIST...CYC AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WL
BRING LK EFFECT SHSN/BLSN AND PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVNG. THERE WL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE TNGT AND WED AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE NW...ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE UPR LKS AND DOWNSLOPE FOR SAW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT IWD...WHERE SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL
LINGER AT LEAST THRU WED MRNG AND ENHANCE THE SHSN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY GALES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU THROUGH SAT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007-
085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1226 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY WITH WRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO ID/WY. IR LOOP INDICATED COLDER CLOUD
TOPS EXPANDING FROM SD INTO MN IN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 130 KNOT 300 MB JET FROM
NRN MN EASTWARD INTO NRN ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER NRN
SPREADING INTO WRN MN WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG IENTROPIC LIFT AND
800-600 MB FGEN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES EXTENDED FROM SE WY INTO WRN
NEBRASKA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH SRN IA INTO NRN
IL. WITH WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...THE
LINGERING LES HAD DISSIPATED.

TODAY...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO UPPER MI WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINING OVER THE SW BY AROUND 15Z AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. GIVEN THE VERY VIGOROUS
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...800-600 MB FGEN AND
290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED HIGHER THROUGH 00Z/TUE
WITH AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.4-0.6 INCH RANGE. WITH SLR VALUES IN THE
12/1-15/1 RANGE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY ALREADY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 5 TO 7 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE INITIAL WAA/FGEN SURGE OF SNOW INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE FROM
ESC SOUTHWARD...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
REGIONAL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 850-700 MB WARMING WITH
TEMPS TO NEAR 1C FOR SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER THE S AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SINCE THE NAM REMAINED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODELS
ENVELOP...EXPECT ANY SLEET TO BE MARGINAL COMPARED TO THE SNOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

OVER THE NW HALF...MODERATE TO STRONG FGEN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE. IN PARTICULAR...THE INCREASING NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST SNOW RATES WHERE UPSLOPE IS STRONGEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE INCREASING NE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL ALSO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

...FOCUS LARGELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE IN TODAY..

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY WITH THE TRACK/SPEED/INTENSITY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. GENERAL MODEL
TRENDS ARE FOR A DEEPER LOW THAT MOVES FARTHER NW. LEANING TOWARD
THE WELL AGREED ON TIMING OF THE THE 00Z/10 GFS AND 00Z/10 REGIONAL
GEM WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT THINK THE TRACK IS TOO FAR TO THE NW /A
COMMON BIAS IN THE NAM/...BUT ALSO THINK THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
TOO FAR SE WITH THE TRACK. NAM AND GEM MODELS SHOW THE 1000MB SFC
LOW OVER NCENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z TUE...MOVING TO NRN LAKE
MI/FAR NWRN LOWER MI AT 998MB AT 18Z...JUST E OF UPPER MI AT 998MB
AT 00Z WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NE TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT AND MANY ASPECTS THAT WILL PLAY INTO SFC
CYCLOGENESIS...TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z/10 GFS IS ABOUT 6
HOURS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT WILL NOT BE ADOPTING THAT
SHIFT GIVEN THAT IT IS NOW THE FASTEST GUIDANCE. THE 12Z/09 IS ON
THE SLOWEST END OF GUIDANCE WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. WILL FAVOR A BROAD BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM. OF
COURSE...THAT IS JUST THE SFC FEATURES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
BE JUST SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE AS IT ROTATES AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER ND OR MT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY TUE MORNING...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT E TOWARD AND INTO
THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED AND MAGNITUDE
OF THAT SHIFT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND AS THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS QUICKLY NE.

DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT MORE THAN JUST THE
OBVIOUS AXIS OF GREATER QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIP TYPE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK. THE MORE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS AN
ABOVE FREEZING WARM NOSE AT AROUND 850MB TO NEAR MENOMINEE...SO
MIXED PRECIP MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THERE. OF
COURSE...DUE TO TRACK DISCREPENCIES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR. IF THE NAM/GEM TRACK
VERIFIED...MUCH MORE OF SERN/ERN UPPER MI WILL SEE MIXED PRECIP
EARLY TUE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -6C FAR E TO -12C W AND ENE LOW LEVEL
FLOW /PER FAVORED GUIDANCE/ AT 12Z...COOLING TO -10C E TO -15C W
WITH MORE NLY WINDS BY 00Z WED...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
ASSURED. BEST AREAS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON TUE WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL U.P. AND NEAR IRONWOOD AND THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW BACKS FAR ENOUGH N TO IMPACT
THESE WRN AREAS. OF COURSE...LAKE ENHANCED AREAS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER QPF THAN IS REPRESENTED BY LARGE SCALE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

AS THE SFC LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE NNW-NW WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -15C...AND LAKE INDUCED EQL
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10KFT BY WED MORNING.

HAVE QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.25
INCHES AT MENOMINEE TO 1.15 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
HURON MOUNTAINS. HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR ARE
FORECAST TO SEE BETWEEN 0.70 AND 0.90 INCHES OF QPF...WITH AROUND AN
INCH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ON TUE
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN UPPER MI AT AROUND 15 TO 1. NCENTRAL UPPER
MI SHOULD SEE 12-13 TO 1 RATIOS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE WARMER AIR WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 12-15 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR...13-18 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AROUND A FOOT ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES AT MENOMINEE DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS AND
AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH RAIN EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE ON TUE AS N-NE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

NW WIND LES WILL CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON THU...PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO LES. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED PLENTY OF
REFINING...HAVE SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS
FOR WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. AM NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIP AMOUNTS
FOR THU /DUE TO LACK OF HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME/ TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT AT LEAST A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

SEE NO END OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO THE COLDER TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD STAY BELOW -10C THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL
FAVOR LES WHEN MOISTURE AND WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS ALLOW. LOOKS LIKE
LES WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. LES
THEN MAY RAMP UP AGAIN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

PROLONGED LIFR/VLIFR EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT WITH INCRSG
GUSTY WINDS CAUSING BLSN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SE WI TONIGHT AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF GALES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD
NRLY BY LATE TUE INTO TUE EVENING. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>004-007-013-014-084-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ009>012.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-248>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

641 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

...FOCUS LARGELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE IN TODAY..

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE ON TUE AS N-NE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP SW TO NE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE TOWARD SW WI LATE
IN THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW WITH A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NE WIND
COMPONENT. WITH INCRSG GUSTY WINDS CAUSING BLSN...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR AT AT LEAST THE MORE
EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>004-007-013-014-084-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ009>012.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-248>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

525 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

...FOCUS LARGELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE IN TODAY..

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE ON TUE AS N-NE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE CLDS AND -SHSN WL LINGER AT CMX EARLY AND SOME HI
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE ...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE
THRU SUNRISE. CLDS WL THICKEN AND SN WL DVLP SW TO NE LATER THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN AS A LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE TOWARD SW
WI LATE IN THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THE SN WL TURN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE IN THE
DAY ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT.
WITH INCRSG GUSTY WINDS CAUSING BLSN...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR AT AT LEAST THE MORE
EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&