Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/11/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

354 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

STRONG POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC
FRONT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SERN MONTANA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. LACK OF
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND A JET NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK OF FORWARD PROGRESS IN THIS FRONT.
ABOUT A 40DEG F TEMP GRADIENT THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
CROSS MTN PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED SOME...BUT WITH THE MTN
WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE HAVE NOTICED A STEADY
INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY
PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE CROSS MTN WINDS STRENGTHENING AS THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE POLAR JET PASSES OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
THE MTN WAVE REFORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
X-SECTION WIND COMPONENT NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL MAXING OUT AROUND 65
KTS AROUND 12Z/MONDAY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED AT MTN TOP LEVEL AND UPPER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT
RANGE. HOWEVER WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT NEARING...MODELS SHOW WIND
SPEEDS ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
MILD...ESPLY IN THE WINDIER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
BY MORNING MORNING...NAM...WRF...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOW THE ARCTIC
FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE CWA AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS SPREADING OVER
THE PLAINS. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SHOULD SEE PRECIP STEADILY
INCREASING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE WITH THE POLAR JET PASSING OVERHEAD. COULD SEE HIGH
WINDWARD SLOPES RECEIVING 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES BY
AFTERNOON. BACK TO THE PLAINS...MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE BY AROUND
18Z...THEN RACING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30-40KT NLY WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW TO START OUT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL THE COLD AIR RUNS UP
AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE PASSING JET COULD PRODUCE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW UP AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS...ACRS PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY 6 PM MST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY DARK.
AGAIN THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WAS NEVER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
SNOW...JUST VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK LEADING TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEK. FOR
MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH JUST LINGERING FLURRIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMP READINGS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 20 DEGREES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
WITH BEST SHOT OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OF THE WEEK FOR ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL
WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE WITH JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WY AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE BARELY MAKE 10 DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO
THE COLD AIRMASS WHILE THE MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. PACIFIC
ORIGIN MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
EXPECT SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND A BIT MORE IFFY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPER TROF DEVELOPING
OVER GREAT BASIN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWING A WEAK AND
MORE OPEN TROF IN NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PERIOD FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

SFC WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER DENVER METRO AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
GO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MTN WAVE RELUCTANT TO MOVE
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. NOW THAT IT HAS...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. KBJC MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS...STRONGEST AROUND SUNRISE. NO PRECIP
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS 12-30KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN AN ABRUPT
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-40KTS AROUND 19Z WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CEILING WILL LOWER
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST. IT LIKES BY AROUND 22Z...CIGS
COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET ALG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW DEVELOPING SOON AFTER. TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE
DENVER AREA BY EVENING.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...SWE
AVIATION FORECASTER...BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

301 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WITH RECENT ISOBAR ANALYSIS SHOWING A 1009
MB LOW WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER INLAND SE GA...COASTAL CLOUDS...AND SOME PATCHES OF SPRINKLES
STREAMING ACROSS FL FROM THE GULF SOUTH OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. TEMPS
WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S COAST WHERE
CLOUDS AND COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPERED HIGHS.

THIS EVENING THROUGH MON...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH 06Z WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST RELATIVELY DRY LESS A
FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL TIER
FROM SGJ-OCF SOUTHWARD. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE
BEYOND 06Z GIVEN MODEL PERSISTENCE IN SLOWLY DEEPENING THE LOW
OFFSHORE AND WRAP-AROUND TROUGH COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
BRINGING WAVES OF SHOWERS TO OUR FL COASTAL COUNTIES...SPECIFICALLY
ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS OF ST
JOHNS/FLAGLER COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" AND USED WPC QPF TO
REFLECT THIS HIGHER RAINFALL SWATH POTENTIAL FROM 06Z MON-00Z TUE.
ALSO OF INTEREST IS A HIGHER CORE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
18-00Z MON PER THE ECMWF/GFS40 AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES
ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST...AND HAVE INDICATED AROUND 60% CHANCE
OF RAINFALL TOMORROW FOR THESE ZONES WITH A DRASTIC DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES TO 10% OR LESS BEYOND THIS HIGHER POP CORE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE N-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
TONIGHT...ELEVATED WINDS WILL FAVOR MORE LOW STRATUS TO FORM
VERSES FOG...WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE OVER SE GA
FROM THE NW AS DRIER AIR TRAILS THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S OVER OUR INLAND ZONES...TO NEAR 60
ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. MONDAY TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ATLANTIC COAST
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER OUR SE FL ZONES...CLEARING SKIES FROM
THE NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BRINGS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE LAND AREAS MONDAY EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
EVEN SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW TEMPS
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND COULD SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...STILL WORTHY OF
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL SUCCEED THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 60S...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL COME ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST...BUT NO FROST OR
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AIR MASS.

THE HIGH WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY AND WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST. IN THIS SCENARIO...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OFFSHORE MAY
BRUSH THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND...RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH WAVES OF MVFR CIGS AT SSI THIS
AFTN. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT JAX...CRG...VQQ
AND GNV...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT GNV AND VQQ WHERE MVFR WAS
ADVERTISED BETWEEN 07Z-09Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT GNV...BUT JUST MENTIONED SCT008 FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT MON WITH INCREASING NNE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

.MARINE...RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KTS
AS COMBINED SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT MON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE
TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK LIKELY ON MONDAY DUE
TO BUILDING SEAS AND ELEVATED NNE WINDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 44 75 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 56 70 52 74 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 54 73 51 77 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 59 72 58 76 / 30 40 40 0
GNV 52 74 50 78 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 53 75 52 79 / 20 10 0 0

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

ENYEDI/SHULER/WALSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1041 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ADVECT INLAND LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST
MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS IN THE EAST
TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO CLEAR...LEAVING A SUNNY DAY. KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SO STILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CSRA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WILL FAVOR MAINTAINING CONTINUED AND RELOADED
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL
AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE OUR WAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY. FORECAST
MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE WEDGE CONDITION DEVELOPING SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME
FRAME AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT OGB. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS HRRR GUIDANCE AND
MOS GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING RESTRICTIONS. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG AT AGS
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH AFTER 12Z AROUND 5
TO 7 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

656 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ADVECT INLAND LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST
MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME
FRAME AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT OGB. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS HRRR GUIDANCE AND
MOS GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING RESTRICTIONS. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG AT AGS
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH AFTER 12Z AROUND 5
TO 7 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1241 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. A MINOR WAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COULD
AFFORD A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.

A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACRS REGION TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO
BACKED/ZONAL LATER THIS AM IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS NRN
ONTARIO CENTERED LOW BECOMES ELONGATED E-W FASHION...UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CHANNEL VORT ACRS ECTL MN/CNTL WI TO STEER LEFT
AND EXPECT SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS /LIGHT RASN/ TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CWA TODAY...PRIMARILY THROUGH CNTL LWR MI/PERHAPS APPROACHING I94
CORRIDOR. RUC13 LOW LEVEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING
GNRLY 75MB PLUS...ALSO SUPPORT A DRY HOLD ACRS CWA. WHILE FAIRLY
THICK/OMNIPRESENT CLOUD COVER TO STIFLE DIURNAL RISES...MODEST
WAA INADVOF FRONTAL ZONE LAYING OUT ACRS SRN GRTLKS REGION
TONIGHT...GIVES NOD TOWARD SLIGHT INCRS IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...ESPCLY WRN CWA. MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION TO EJECT
FROM GLACIER NP AMID RAPID 150 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS SRN BC. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER LATITUDE TRACK THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INCRSD MID
LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SHRA AND/OR SPRINKLES
ACRS FAR NRN TIER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND STALL OUT OF
FRONTAL ZONE LEAVING CWA IN WARM SECTOR HAVE CONFIDENTLY RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MAJOR SYSTEM FOR DYS3/4 BREWING AS EPAC
RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD SUNDAY WITH AN INTENSE COHESIVE DIG ENSUING
ACRS CANADIAN/NRN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

A MASSIVE CYCLONE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL.
HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER
BRINGING COLD AIR TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A MAJOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING REGIME BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS...ECMWF...12KM NAM AND GEM FAVORING A MORE NORTHWEST SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SOME CHANCES FOR
NON SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THUNDER OUT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND STABILITY IS MARGINAL. GIVEN THE MORE
NORTHWEST LOW TRACK...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN SOME POST
FRONTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY
COLD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 33F TO 37F WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...THESE HIGHS ARE
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. ALSO...THE
GFS/MEX/MOS HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THESE COLDER HIGHS AT
SOUTH BEND. IT IS PLAUSIBLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ADVERTISED BY
THE ECMWF ARE ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER BOTH SITES IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST HI RES MODELS. HOWEVER AS LOW LEVEL
LOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH PERSISTENT AREA
OF MID CLOUD WILL MOVE BACK IN AS FRONT SAGS CLOSER. MARGINAL
CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 35 KTS TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN FOR THE TIME BEING BUT NOT A
SLAM DUNK FOR OCCURRENCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER ON MONDAY WITH EXTENSIVE DRYING
IN LOW LEVELS.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

645 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50.
A MINOR WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND COULD AFFORD A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
ROUTE 6. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

NO SIG CHNGS WRT 12 UTC TAFS FOR NRN IN. VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
STALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF
TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS POTENTIAL
AFTER SUNSET AS 2KFT WINDS VEER/RAMP AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

446 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

VFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN
FOR LLWS POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET AS 2KFT WINDS VEER/RAMP AHEAD OF
FRONTAL ZONE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

349 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014

TREMENDOUS CYCLONE UP ACRS THE BERING SEA THIS AFTN YIELDING
VOLITALE AND INCONSISTENT DOWNSTREAM HANDLING OF IMPORTANT FTRS
THIS PD. OF NOTE IS MORE VIGOROUS FNTL WAVE DVLPMNT ALG ARCTIC
DRAPE MON-TUE TIED TO BIFURCATING H5 TROUGH ENERGY W/MORE SIG WWD
ELONGATION OF H5 HGTS AND SHARPER EWD TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS
THE LAKES LT PD...THE RAMIFICATIONS OF WHICH ARE QUITE SIG TO
GOING FCST. 12Z CONSENSUS EVOLUTION ALOFT ACRS NOAM YIELDS A
SLWR/DEEPER SFC REFLECTION AND AS SUCH SLWR INTRUSION OF CAA WING
AS WELL AN EXISTENTIAL SPLIT ACRS CWA OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP MON-TUE. WILL HOLD W/PRIOR TUE POPS GIVEN SHARP CDFNTL
PASSAGE YET OTRWS DROP MENTION ALTOGETHER MON-MON NIGHT.

IN ADDN...SLWR STANCE TIED TO SLWR EWD EJECTING WWD DISTURBANCE
ALLOWS FOR CURTAILING PRIOR SHSN MENTION WED YET BUMPS POPS
HIGHER THU-THU NIGHT PDS. REGARDLESS TEMPS VRY COLD W/DEPARTURES
15-20 BLO NORMAL DYS 5 THROUGH AT LEAST DY12 IF NOT LONGER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

400 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG 490DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM EASTERN WYOMING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE LINE...WITH THE ARCTIC ARI MASS ALREADY
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHER NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURE AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE SEE WINDS GUST AROUND 20
MPH...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THIS IS PROBABLY THE
EXTENT OF THE WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
MPH. DESPITE RH VALUES ALREADY 15 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA...IT JUST DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS REACH THE
25 MPH/3HR CRITERIA BEFORE SUNSET AND EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE WIDESPREAD. NO RFW IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW WITH ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE PLAINS AND HELP KICK THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND TRACKED THIS FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND DELAYS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH...HOWEVER MAIN COLD SURGE WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS DECEPTIVE...BECAUSE HIGH TEMPS (WILE
UNSEASONABLY MILD) WILL BE BEFORE MIDDAY WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT IN AREA OF BETTER PRESSURE
RISES COULD SUPPORT WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT MIXING (WHICH ALSO COMPLICATED DIURNAL WARMING)...SO WHILE
WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(58MPH)...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
UPDATE.

REGARDING PRECIP...GOOD FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNALS...SO I
KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 21Z TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH ADJUSTED
TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF PRECIP FAVORING SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT THE MOST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THE FLOW. WITH THE COLD AIR PUSHED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES
AND THE SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...WHICH
MAY EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN-
MOST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
INITIALLY LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND DOES NOT CARVE OUT THE NEXT
TROUGH AS DEEPLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM A
DEEPER SINGLE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ANY ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AM
CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH ONLY
VERY SLIGHT WARMING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TENDED TO STICK WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINING TWO HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11KTS (HIGHEST AT KGLD) EXPECTED AT TAF
ISSUANCE WITH A VEER TO THE WEST 5-10KTS IN THE 11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
16Z OR SO BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH 20Z. FROM 21Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR
30KTS AND GUSTS 40-45KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z BUT SHORTLY AFTER THAT CIGS WILL LOWER AND
POSSIBLY BECOME MVFR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AFTER 23Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LOW CHANCES RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST WILL AWAIT
00Z DATA AND SEE HOW IT COMPARES TO CURRENT FORECAST BEFORE
DECIDING WHETHER TO INCLUDE IT OR NOT IN THE 06Z TAFS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

320 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
INITIALLY LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND DOES NOT CARVE OUT THE NEXT
TROUGH AS DEEPLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM A
DEEPER SINGLE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ANY ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AM
CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH ONLY
VERY SLIGHT WARMING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TENDED TO STICK WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE THROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BETTER MIXING ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND
18-22KT...DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK SHOULD SEE WINDS 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST. BIGGER CHANGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 18Z AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SW
NEBRASKA WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH. LEFT THIS OUT FOR
NOW AT KMCK...DUE TO TIMING ISSUES AROUND END OF TAF PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A DEEP AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING COLD AIR TO SPILL
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY...BUT QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

147 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE POLAR COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE MONDAY. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO MID-EVENING. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST IS NEEDED WITH MAXS NEAR 70F MOST LOCALES BEFORE
FALLING SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS
MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP...RAIN TO
SNOW IS ALSO A REMOTE POSSIBILITY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE OF
QPF IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WIND CHILLS MONDAY
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THIS MAY CHALLENGE A RECORD COOL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT RUSSELL. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER WILL EMBRACE THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A MINOR
SHORTWAVE ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS THAT SHOULD KEEP PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. IF SO...THIS MAY CHALLENGE THE
DAILY RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AGAIN FOR RUSSELL
AND EVEN SALINA ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES STAYING MUCH BELOW
CLIMO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST CONFIDENCE ON
CHANCES FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF OFF THE
PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK MAY PHASE WITH A VORT LOBE
DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE MAIN VORTEX ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS.

KED

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

FOR THE AIRPORTS ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHEN NAM BRINGS IN LIFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES
EXCEPT RSL...AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THINKING NAM IS WAY
TOO BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND SIDED MORE WITH THE RUC AND
GFS...SO FOR NOW LEFT ALL MENTION OF LOW CIGS OUT OF TAFS.
HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS IN THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NAM VERIFIES.

ADK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 43 70 27 38 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 42 69 25 36 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 43 68 25 36 / 0 0 10 10
ELDORADO 45 70 27 37 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 45 72 28 39 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 42 65 21 33 / 0 0 20 10
GREAT BEND 41 67 21 34 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 43 67 24 35 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 42 68 24 35 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 46 73 33 41 / 0 0 20 10
CHANUTE 45 71 31 39 / 0 0 20 10
IOLA 44 70 30 38 / 0 0 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 45 72 32 40 / 0 0 20 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1137 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY
AND EVEN WARMER ON MON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL FAVORING THE
ECMWF FOR TIMING OF FRONT WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS WITH WIND
SHIFT...BUT FASTER WITH THE COLD AIR. NET RESULT IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IN CENTRAL KS ON MONDAY...BUT ATTEMPTED TO SHOW QUICKER
FALL OFF IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF FRONT AS WARM
TEMPERATURES/WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. STILL LOOKS LIKE
DECENT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES BUT ODDS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION LOOK SLIM IN CENTRAL KS. OPTED TO KEEP SOME SMALL
CHANCES POST FRONTAL IN SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON NIGHT. UPPED WINDS A
BIT GIVEN GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE DANGER AS WELL. HOWEVER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO BE SHY OF
RED FLAG CRITERIA. ON TUE...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BUT
WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL STILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TRENDS...BUT FORECAST HAS BECOME
MORE COMPLICATED WITH LARGE POTENTIAL FOR ERROR. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS INDICATING MORE CLOUDS ENHANCED BY PERIODIC RIPPLES IN UPPER
FLOW...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEAK OVERRUNNING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATING VERY COLD LOWS GIVEN COLD AIRMASS AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. AT THIS
POINT ONLY TRENDED SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT WARMER
MINIMUMS/COOLER MAXES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. KEEP SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN FORECAST FOR SAT...BUT GIVEN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON SURFACE FEATURES...IT MAY OR MAY NOT COME TO
FRUITION. -HOWERTON

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

ADK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 44 70 25 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 69 44 69 22 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 67 44 69 24 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 66 46 69 27 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 46 71 28 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 71 44 65 20 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 71 43 67 21 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 69 44 68 24 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 69 43 68 22 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 66 46 70 36 / 0 0 0 20
CHANUTE 65 45 69 32 / 0 0 0 20
IOLA 64 44 68 32 / 0 0 0 20
PARSONS-KPPF 65 45 70 35 / 0 0 0 20

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1248 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.

PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 11Z...SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS
BY 21Z AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1000 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014

WINTER WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC DEBUT NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND IS WHY TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BEFORE
FALLING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY CAUSING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
SWINGS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM A
RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP...AND EXPECT
VIRTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE COLDEST VALUES OF
THE YEAR WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MEAN JET POSITION CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS BECOME
MORE DIVERGES ON THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT OVERALL
DEPICT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS LATE IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1205 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1205 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ISOLATED RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATTM, AND THE HRRR INDICATES THERE WILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIGHT, PERHAPS EVEN JUST FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. DID KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AS PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, THINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA HAS BROUGHT CLOUD COVER WITH SOME RETURNS THAT WERE
SHOWING EARLIER ON RADAR THAT HAVE NOW MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE, EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST
FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH, AS A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY BUT THIS SHOULDN`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH. WHILE THIS MAY FALL AS SOME FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, ANY PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON WOULD FALL AS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 40 TODAY IN THE
NORTH. DOWNEAST, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 50.

SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR FOR A TIME SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
CLOUDING OVER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
TRICKY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK IN.
STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH LEANED
HEAVILY TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS (SUPERBLEND). EXPECT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
DOWNEAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
RAIN...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. COULD
HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OR DISTURBANCE CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE TIMING OR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY...THEN AT BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KFVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
CUTS THROUGH THE AREA.

LONG TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A SW
FETCH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE SCA FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/NORCROSS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/NORCROSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1245 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

WE HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FCST THIS MORNING TO TIGHTEN UP PCPN CHCS
A LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS WAS MAINLY TO
INCREASE THE CHCS A BIT TO THE NORTH WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING...AND LOWER
THE CHCS ON THE SRN EDGE WHERE PCPN TAPERS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY.

WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT OUR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WARMER LAKE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VSBYS
HAVE NOT DROPPED DOWN TOO LOW AT ANY LOCATION...SO IT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER LIGHT IN NATURE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT ANY SNOW WITH
THE LFQ OF THIS JET STREAK WILL SWITCH TO RAIN AS WE HAVE SOME
DIURNAL HEATING TAKE PLACE AND AS WE SEE SOME SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR
ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON THE SW FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE HRRR RUC MODEL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SNOW THIS
MORNING COULD ACCUMULATE MORE THAN FORECASTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP 12Z TO 13Z AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS
SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE REED CITY TO CADILLAC
CORRIDOR. ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE PAST
HOUR AND ARE NOW AROUND FREEZING IN THAT REGION. THEY COULD GO UP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NEXT HOUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RISES COULD BE OFFSET AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WILL
BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS. OUR PLAN IS TO SEND OUT A MESSAGE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA ALONG WITH AN SPS BY 7 AM.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.

WE MAY SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING IN
THE LUDINGTON TO HARRISON REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT IN THE
MOIST DGZ SUPPORTS THIS RISK. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.

COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THEN LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM...ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST NORTHERN LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS HERE AS GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE
MAIN AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS LUDINGTON TO HARRISON.

THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH OF HARRISON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WE COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX BY 00Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

FULL AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEPARTS...H8 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM AROUND +3C AT 00Z
WED TO AROUND -11C BY 12Z WED. ANY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
WILL QUICK SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. BUT THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXITING...SO IT APPEARS ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT AROUND AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO SWING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPAWN HEALTHIER LAKE BANDS. THIS
AGAIN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD BRING AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL MOSTLY AFFECT
MKG AND GRR AFTER 06Z.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1234 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO RESULTING IN CYCLONIC WNW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF 280K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CENTRAL MN
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI AND NRN WI. OTHERWISE...ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MI...PER SFC
OBS. KMQT RADAR IS NOT AVBL DUE TO A MECHANICAL FAILURE.

TODAY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR DIV IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -11C (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR
6C)...LES WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW SUCH AS
THE KEWEENAW AND NE UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN A HALF INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
MUNISING DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER FETCH.

TONIGHT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-12C AND WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LES GOING. HOWEVER...AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINING LES WILL
ALSO DIMINISH WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OVER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

SINCE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS HANDLING EXPECTED LES WED THROUGH
SAT...PUT TIME AND ATTENTION INTO THE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME WHEN A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA...POSSIBLY
WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

FOR THE EARLY-MID WEEK SYSTEM...

OVERALL SETUP...A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
LEEWARD CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO/WRN NE/WRN KS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...WHICH RESULTS IN A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY MON AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING THERMAL GRADIENT N OF THE SFC
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF FGEN /AND PRECIPITATION/
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW MON MORNING. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER JET WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH UNTIL THE FAVORABLE FORCING
REGION FROM THE JET MOVES E BY 12Z TUE. HOWEVER...THE SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY COMPLETE LOSS OF THE UPPER JET FORCING WILL BE
INCREASINGLY OFFSET BY LOWER LEVEL FORCING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
THE SRN PORTION OF THE REGION BY 12Z TUE. THE LOW STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
IS BECOMING BETTER AGREED ON BY MODELS...SHOWING THE A ROUGHLY
1003MB SFC LOW NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER AT 12Z TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO IA. STILL AM STICKING WITH 12Z/08 ECMWF AND 00Z/09 GFS
GUIDANCE WHICH AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND AM TOSSING OUT THE
00Z/09 NAM /WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
HAS QUITE A BIT HIGHER QPF/ AND ALSO USING LESS OF THE 00Z/09 NHEM
GEM AS IS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AND HAS ONLY JUST COME INTO LINE WITH
THE OTHER MODELS. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI ON TUE AT AROUND
1000MB. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP MAINLY MON AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL /WITH PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER AMOUNTS/ UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MODELS HAVE ALSO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON LAGGING THE QPF INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
POLAR LOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE ROTATED AROUND MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE
AREA. INTERESTING AND UNUSUAL SYSTEM IN THAT THE FGEN WILL BE FAIRLY
FAR REMOVED FROM THE SFC LOW...AND ALSO THAT A STRONG HIGH AND THAT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR TO THE N THAT THE FGEN WILL WRAP
IN...THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT IS OFTEN SEEN
WHEN THESE STRONG FGEN CASES OCCUR. WHAT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DOES FOR THE AREA IS IT KEEP THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE PERSISTENT NE/NNE LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND SUPPORTIVE 850MB TEMPS. SHOULD EASILY SEE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN NE FLOW FAVORED AREAS...WITH GREATER
QPF/SNOW THAN IS SHOWN BY THE LARGER SCALE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. WINDS
DO LOOK TO TURN MORE N-NW TUE NIGHT...SO FAVORED AREAS WILL SHIFT AT
THAT POINT. ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP /INSTEAD OF ALL
SNOW/ IS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI WHERE WARMER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOSE IN.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN LINE WITH A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH GIVES WIDESPREAD 1-1.30 INCHES.
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS MAY
BE OBSERVED DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK...ALSO HAVE JUST OVER 1.5
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ARE FAVORED. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY N
WITH THE TRACK...SO KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY STILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE HEADLINES. ALSO...EVEN WITH MANUALLY INCREASING QPF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS AREA WIDE
QPF HIGHER THAN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED
AREAS. IF THE HIGHER AREA WIDE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DID
VERIFY...COULD EASILY SEE 2.00 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 2.50 INCHES OF QPF
IN THE ENHANCED AREAS OF THE NCENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREFERRED...SO A MORE MODERATED/BLENDED
SOLUTION WAS APPLIED. FROM IWD TO MQT TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THE DGZ WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND NOT ALL THAT
THICK...A 200-300MB THICK LAYER BELOW THE DGZ WILL BE NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL AND STILL COLDER THAN -8C. ALSO...VERTICAL MOTION WILL
BE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW-MID LEVELS...SO THAT SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE AROUND 15 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. N OF THE IWD TO ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LINE...THE DGZ WILL BE LOWER AND THICKER...SO HIGHER
SLR VALUES WILL BE OBSERVED. THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FARTHER S. ALL
THIS SAID...HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM MON THROUGH TUE OF
12-17 INCHES...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...HAVE UP TO 22 INCHES OF SNOW. OVER THE NRN
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR ERN UPPER MI HAVE 9-12 INCHES OF SNOW.
NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY HAVE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LOW
NEAR MENOMINEE WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.

DECIDED TO PUSH HEADLINES BACK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES GIVEN A
SLOWER TREND TO GUIDANCE. ALSO...ADDED NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY TO THE
WATCH. DID NOT GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS TO ALLOW FOR BETTER
REFINEMENT OF AMOUNTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF IWD WHICH WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW AND CONDITIONS FALLING TO MVFR BY
EARLY MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD NE TO N GALES
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI INTO THE
15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ002-003-006-007-013-014-084-085.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ004-005.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ009>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1049 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. I
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RAIN FOR THE TAFS SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI. IF
YOU WERE FLYING NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR...IFR AND LOWER IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY THIS MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF A
TEMPORARY LOWER CONDITION THIS MORNING FOR KMKG. HOWEVER TONIGHT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THAT SUPPORTS
MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

711 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OVER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

FOR THE EARLY-MID WEEK SYSTEM...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH THIS
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS EARLY TODAY
AT SAW...CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WNW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE EXPOSED
CMX LOCATION BEFORE THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ002-003-006-007-013-014-084-085.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ004-005.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ009>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

641 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

529 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER AN AREA OF PCPN WILL BE ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE I-96 TAF SITES...THIS COULD
BRIEFLY BRING IN MVFR VSBYS. HOWEVER ANY SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS WE WARM TOWARD MID DAY AND THE PCPN CHANGES TO ALL RAIN.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL PREVAIL. A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE SEEN AFTER NIGHTFALL...
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR BY LATE EVENING.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME...GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL DROP OFF AGAIN BY NIGHTFALL.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

522 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OVER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

FOR THE EARLY-MID WEEK SYSTEM...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS EVNG AS A HI PRES RDG/AXIS
OF DRIER AIR MOVES THRU THE UPR LKS. BUT AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE/LO
PRES TROF IN MN AND AN INFLUX OF MORE LLVL MSTR WL BRING A RETURN OF
MORE CLDS/SHSN ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNGT AT IWD AND SAW.
SINCE THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING/DEEPER MSTR WL PASS THRU WI AND DRIER
LLVL AIR WL LINGER OVER THE KEWEENAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT CMX. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE/LO PRES
TROF ON SUN MRNG...CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON SUN
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ002-003-006-007-013-014-084-085.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ004-005.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ009>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

A BUSY DAY TODAY WITH A SIMPLY AMAZING FRONTOGENESIS BAND THAT HAS
SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE
MILLE LACS IN MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES SO FAR IN PINE...BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
PARTS OF ASHLAND. PROBABLY SURROUNDING LOCATIONS WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS...BUT THATS WHAT WE HAVE FOR NOW. ANYWAY...THIS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NOW...TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE BEEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THINGS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
INTO TUESDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IN OUR SNOW BAND WILL BE SEEN FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW THE FORECAST
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FROM 12 TO 15 INCHES...AND
15 TO 20 IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ANOTHER 8 TO 12 OVER THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. HAVE PUT
IN SOME BLOWING SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LAKE WHERE STRONG WINDS COMING OFF THE LAKE INTO OPEN
AREAS WILL WHIP SNOW ABOUT. TEMPERATURES HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND NOT VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION YET...WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

DEEP SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SRN ONTARIO AND
WRN QUEBEC. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DROP IN FROM THE NW
BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND ACT TO CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SNOW BELT
REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY IN NRN WI. A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC
AIR AND A LONG NRLY FETCH OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ONTO THE SOUTH
SHORE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR AND SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFTS EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN ON
SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN AND ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL
MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. LARGE SCALE LIFT NOT VERY STRONG NOR IS THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IMPRESSIVE...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
SYSTEM AS A WHOLE AT THIS TIME RANGE IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT. TEMPS COOLER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS NEAR ZERO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. INITIALLY...IFR/LIFR WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES...WITH MVFR/VFR IN KHIB AND KINL.
MOST SITES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER ON TUESDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL END
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 24 16 27 / 100 50 10 20
INL 16 25 18 26 / 10 10 20 30
BRD 19 24 9 26 / 100 20 10 20
HYR 24 27 11 27 / 100 90 20 30
ASX 27 29 16 30 / 100 100 60 50

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ035>038.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ033-034.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140-141-146>148.

GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ142>145.

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MOORE/BJT
AVIATION...DAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1202 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEK. A SECOND
WEAKER ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB MAY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR A WEEK OR LONGER IN SOME AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH TODAY INTO
CNTL SOUTH DAKOTA. ALL 12 MODELS SHOW WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT
TO THE NORTH. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS...FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS MIGHT NOT WORK THOUGH GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD POOL MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE NAM SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE ARRIVAL RUNNING SOME 3 HOURS /OR
MORE/ SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO. THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH...WITH MID TO LATE MORNING HIGHS MONDAY APPROACHING 10C SOUTH
OF I80 /OR WARMER/. FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH AS
THE NAM IS INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S FOR OUR SOUTH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. NORTH HOWEVER...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
NON-DIURNAL HIGHS AS STRONG CAA FILTERS SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 0C ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER ON MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN THREAT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON AN
AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVERLAID BY A LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA OVER THE DAKOTAS....BUT SUGGEST SOME IMPACT TO
OUR NORTHERN CWA. BUT THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LESS THAN IDEAL
MOISTURE PROFILE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE IN THIS AREA...WHERE THE ARE
TIMES THAT SATURATION ONLY EXISTS BELOW THE DGZ. A MIXED BAG OF
P-TYPES WILL BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTH...WITH THE PRIMARY MODE
BEING POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BOTH NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS POINT TO SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
KVTN MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST...MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW RATHER THAN
THE DRIZZLE.

THE 09.00Z GFS/EC IS ENTERTAINING TONIGHT WITH IT/S PROJECTION OF A
SECONDARY FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT SANDHILLS. THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS SHOWN TO
OVERCOME THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE /DISPLAYED BY LOW AND MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DOWNGLIDE IN AGEOSTROPHIC CROSS SECTIONS/ TO
PRODUCE A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT QPF LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IN CONTRAST IS LARGELY IGNORING THIS
SECONDARY BAND. THE IDEA 24 HOURS AGO WAS TO TREND BACK THE POP
FORECAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...BUT TONIGHT THAT
HAS CHANGED. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER END
CHANCE WORDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY FOR THE ABOVE
POTENTIAL. IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON RAPID SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTE THAT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE EVENTUAL QPF WILL FALL IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS THE MESOSCALE FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE THE SNOW PRODUCTION. THESE
TYPE CASES THE MODELS SEEM TO OVER ESTIMATE THE WIDTH OF THE SNOW
BAND/S/...WHICH WILL BE TRUE IN THIS CASE...REVISIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WHAT IS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR
SINCE LATE LAST WINTER WILL ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH. FORECAST HIGHS MID-WEEK MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH INTO THE 20S...AND DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...SUB ZERO LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
OUTBREAK IS HERE TO STAY...WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...IF NOT LONGER.

WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY WEAK WAVE WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN SUFFICIENT SATURATION. THE
DGZ WILL LOWER WELL BELOW H85 MID WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WAVE IS SHOWN TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR IN THE REGION. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR LIGHT QPF...ONLY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC
WAVE CRUISING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AGAIN
LIGHT QPF IS SHOWN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

REST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OVER 10KTS. ALL THINGS CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY...20 TO 30
KTS...BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IMPACTS KVTN FIRST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING COLD AIR WITH RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW EARLY ONLY...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. PRECIP WILL IMPACT KVTN BEFORE
18Z...HOWEVER EXPECT KLBF TO BE DRY THROUGH 18Z. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS ON TIMING THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...THUS THE WIND SHIFT...AND LOWERING
CIGS/PRECIP...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1130 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUITE
PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...WE HAVE A FINE SCENARIO FOR A NICE
WARM-UP...WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST JOB A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THE FIRST PERIOD HIGHS IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
SITUATION...SO I AM GOING WITH THIS FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS AND EVEN LOWER 70S IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA...DESPITE SOME CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS AT TIMES. WIND
SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHT. FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN A CORRIDOR FROM
NEAR LEXINGTON TO ORD...WITH WINDS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING AN ISSUE.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE. CONSRAW
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE IN THIS SITUATION. SO I AM
USING THIS TO GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S...WELL ABOVE GENERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WIND COULD
GUST A BIT TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES AS A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE KNOCKING
ON OUR DOOR STEP IN THE THE NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL TOPICS OF INTEREST OVER THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...WILL MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND INSTEAD OF FOCUSING MAINLY ON
CHRONOLOGICAL DAILY DETAILS WILL DISCUSS THE BIG-PICTURE ASPECTS
OF VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS: TEMPS...PRECIPITATION...WIND ETC.

STARING WITH TEMPS: WE ARE ONE DAY CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM FALLING
OUT ON OUR MILD EARLY-NOVEMBER WEATHER...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR
MOST FOLKS IT LOOKS EVERY BIT AS CHILLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS IT DID BEFORE. WILL FOCUS THESE FIRST TWO PARAGRAPHS
SOLELY ON TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS/TRENDS...AND THEN TURN
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH: ALTHOUGH ONLY
MINOR/GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HIGH/LOW TEMPS FOR
TUES-SAT...ACTUAL WIND CHILL READINGS FOR AT LEAST THE MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBABLY DROPPED DOWN MORE NOTICEABLY AS
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED AS MUCH AS 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
DAYTIME. SO AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...WE ARE NOW UP TO 5
CONSECUTIVE DAYS (TUES-SAT) IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING WHICH
HIGHS WILL EITHER STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 DEGREES OR OUTRIGHT FALL TO
REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ON MOST
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE ALSO QUITE
POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST 1 OR 2 NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS PATTERN
OF MUCH-BELOW TEMPS MIGHT EASE UP A BIT...FOR SURE THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT LEAST THERE ARE SIGNS
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD PER THE ECMWF MODEL THAT
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY (REPEAT POTENTIALLY) MAKE A
RUN AT GETTING BACK INTO THE 40S AROUND THE NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY THE
16TH-17TH TIME FRAME. THE BOTTOM LINE: CONFIDENCE JUST KEEPS
INCREASING THAT THE CWA IS STARING AT THE OVERALL COLDEST
MULTIPLE-DAY STRETCH OF MID-NOVEMBER WEATHER SINCE AT LEAST
2000...14 YEARS AGO. ON ONE LAST TEMPERATURE-RELATED
NOTE...ALTHOUGH FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20...THE
PRESENCE OF SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE AND EVEN BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
DURING NEARLY EVERY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AND PRECAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
GIVEN THAT WE HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ANYTHING LIKE THIS YET THIS
SEASON.

ONE MAY HAVE NOTICED THAT THE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH SKIPPED ANY
MENTION OF MONDAY (TOMORROW) TEMPERATURES. WELL...THATS BECAUSE
THEY ARE WORTHY OF THEIR OWN PARAGRAPH AS EVEN AT THIS 24-36 HOUR
RANGE THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ROOM
FOR ERROR HERE. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT JUST LIKE LAST
NIGHT...MONDAY HIGHS WERE AGAIN CRANKED UPWARD ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THE CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE SURGE OF COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO HOW IT LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. SO...WHILE SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE OFFING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS...ACTUAL HIGHS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE REACHED
AROUND MID-DAY ARE ACTUALLY LOOKING REASONABLY MILD. ALTHOUGH
CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR 5+ DEGREE
ERRORS HERE....THIS LATEST FORECAST AIMS FOR A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM
MID 40S FAR NORTH...SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S CENTRAL...AND LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH. IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE
SPEED THAT COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED
RAISING THESE HIGHS EVEN FARTHER AND THIS MAY STILL NEED
CONSIDERED. PLEASE NOTE THOUGH...NO MATTER WHAT THE DAILY HIGH
TECHNICALLY IS...TEMPS BY THE 5PM MONDAY COMMUTE TIME WILL BE DOWN
QUICKLY TUMBLING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH...AND 40S SOUTH.

SWITCHING GEARS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE OFFICIALLY ONLY TWO TIME FRAMES WITH ANY
PRECIP/SNOW MENTION...THE FIRST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND AND MORE UNCERTAIN ONE NOT UNTIL NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FOCUSING FIRST ON THE MOST IMMEDIATE CHANCE
AND STARTING WITH MONDAY DAYTIME...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH NOON. THEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...AND ONLY A SPRINKLE/FLURRY
MENTION FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC
FRONT. TECHNICALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
HERE AND THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW FELT THE
SPRINKLE/FLURRY MENTION SHOULD SUFFICE...AS THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING HARDLY ANY PRECIP. THEN MONDAY
EVENING-NIGHT...THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST A LIGHT DUSTING OF WIND-
BLOWN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SWEEPS OVER THE CWA. MUCH LIKE
THE CASE WITH MONDAY TEMPERATURES...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EVEN 36-48 HOURS OUT WHETHER OR NOT MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...OR WHETHER PARTS OF THE AREA
COULD ACTUALLY REALIZE SOME LIGHT-BUT-NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION UP
TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW EFFICIENTLY THE
LOW-MID LEVEL COLUMN SATURATES...AND AT THIS TIME THE NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE BARELY FLURRIES THEORY...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY GEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AT LEAST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS ALL COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
DOWNPLAYING THINGS WITH ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
UP TO NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. GIVEN
THAT MID-LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE LACKING...ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW AM NOT SEEING THIS
AS A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...AND THUS WILL FOCUS THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.

NO MATTER WHAT DOES OR DOESN/T FALL FROM THE SKY ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF ANY SNOW
CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WOULD
NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AROUND THE TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH BETTER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MID-WEEK
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY COVERING
THE SNOW CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CURRENT
FORECAST ONLY HAS LOW 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...AND THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SHOWING
A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS SKIRTS THE
BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT HERE.

LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...NEED TO DEDICATE A PARAGRAPH HERE
TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SURGING ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND
THE INITIAL ARCTIC BLAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEYOND WHICH SPEEDS AT LEAST DECREASE TO MORE MANAGEABLE
LEVELS. IN SHORT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF QUITE-STRONG
WINDS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AT LEAST
30-35 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 45-50 MPH. IN THE PAST...THIS WOULD
BE A SLAM-DUNK WIND ADVISORY EVENT...BUT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL
NEARBY OFFICES CEASED ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES AS OF NOV. 1ST. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. FORTUNATELY...HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
OF SUSTAINED 40+ MPH/GUSTS 58+ MPH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH THESE VALUES GIVEN THAT THE 06Z NAM IS DEPICTING A VERY
IMPRESSIVE 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY
8-15 MPH PLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH/GUST 30-35 MPH POTENTIAL...MAKING FOR A REAL
SLAP IN THE FACE CONSIDERING THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT
EVEN REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE LOCAL AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ESPECIALLY THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST IS LOWER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONG COLD
FRONT ARE APPROACHING THE TERMINAL AREAS FROM THE NW. AT THIS
POINT...HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING CLOUD BASES IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS TO BE
JUST BEYOND THE 18Z END TIME TOMORROW OF THIS TAF. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SIDE FOR A TIME...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THAT THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS AFTER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
LLWS OUT OF THE TAF FOR LATER TONIGHT...SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARGINAL AT BEST CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

524 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH 09Z.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND IFR CIGS COULD ENTER NRN
NEB AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS UNTIL THEN.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

513 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS TONIGHT AS A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTH SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED A
MENTION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO
SOUTH TODAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. ONLY CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED FOR SKY
COVER.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2014

WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...AND
MAY BE SLIGHTLY OFF A CATEGORY AT THE VERY BEGINNING...BUT SHOULD
BECOME LIGHTER AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR SUNDAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. CIGS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 20000 TO 25000 FT AGL. LOOK FOR CIGS TO DROP TO
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL ON SUNDAY...FALLING TO AROUND 10000 FT AGL
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS
TONIGHT...BECOMING WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 10 KTS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1001 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS WITH SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY...TRENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MADE ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO GRIDS...TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH BOUNCY
TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTMENTS ARE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MILDER
FORECAST MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT.

SHALLOW DECOUPLING LAYER IS COMPETING WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS WARM LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL. THIS IS MAKING HOURLY
TEMPERATURES QUITE FINICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY...AND LAKE PLAIN VERSUS
TERRAIN. THE OTHER TRICKY THING IS THE MARINE LAYER MOISTURE
COMING UP VIA SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA IF
LOOKING AT 925MB RH...AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF THAT SUGGESTED
IN THE 18Z GFS. RUC IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP IT AND MORE CONFINED TO
POCONOS. IN THE END...THE LAYER APPEARS THIN ENOUGH TO WHICH EVEN
JUST A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNSLOPING OF THE SSE TO SSW FLOW TUESDAY
/WHICH WILL OCCUR IN FINGER LAKES TO NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR/ SHOULD
MANAGE TO ERADICATE THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUCCESS
HANGING AGAINST THE POCONOS-SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...AND AT LEAST FOR
A TIME THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AS WELL BY MORNING /THOUGH IT WILL
TEND TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RDGG AND SW FLOW TNGT WILL KEEP GRNLY CLR SKIES OVER THE AREA.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A DVLPG MARINE LYR FCST...ESP BY THE
NAM WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLDS INTO THE SE ZONES LATE TNGT AND EARLY
TUE. DO NOT XPCT ENUF MOISTURE FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME AND CLDS MAY
NOT ADVANCE PAST THE WYOMING VLY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DVLG DEEP TROF SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD THRU THE PD. MEANWHILE...CLSD
UPR LOW DRFTS OFF THE EAST CST INCRSG THE LL MOISTURE...ESP OVER
THE SE ZONES. FOR TUE...RDG PRETTY MUCH HOLDS FAST BUT SLOWLY BRKS
DWON FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE ADVANCING TROF. SFC FNT STILL WELL
OF TO THE WEST AND DOES NOT ADVANCE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFT 12Z
WED. AHD OF THE FNT...SOME LL MOISTURE FROM THE CSTL LOW IS PULLED
NWRD INTO THE AREA...ESP OVER NEPA BRING CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE TUE NGT.

CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST ON WED BUT LE IS SLOW TO BEGIN WITH THE DRY
AIR AND VERY SHEARED FLOW AS A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE BHD
THE FNT. BY THU...WEAK UPR WV MVG THRU ALONG WITH H8 AIR THAT HAS
COOLED TO -10C MAYBE ENUF TO TRIGGER SOME LGT LE OVER THE FAR
NORTH LATE THU...WHEN FLOW BEGINS TO ALIGN A BIT BETTER.

MODEL GUID IN RSNBL AGREEMENT AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
20S BY THU MRNG...AND ONLY INTO THE 30S MOST PLACE ON THU AFTN...A
GOOD 5 DEGREES BLO NRML FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MINOR TWEEKS. MUCH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE MID
WEEK CDFNT...WITH LES GETTING ORGANIZED THU NGT WITH PSSG OF
ANOTHER S/WV AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THE FCST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFYING CNTRL
U.S. TROF POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A MORE WDSPRD SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
EVENT...BUT WILL STICK WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE HPC POPS FOR NOW.
HIGHS THRU THE PD GNRLY IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE TRICKY WITH
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO SOME TERMINALS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIG APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE INTO KAVP
AROUND DAWN...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
/INITIALLY AT FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL/. FOR KBGM...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR
CIG WILL BE INTERMITTENT MID-TO-LATE MORNING BUT LAYER SHOULD BE
THIN AND PRONE TO SCATTERING OUT ESPECIALLY INTO AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING AND/OR DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT CIGS AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. MOST TERMINALS SSE WINDS TONIGHT GENERALLY
4-8 KTS...BECOMING S 8-10 KTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NOTABLE EXCEPTION
AND DEVELOPING LLWS FOR KSYR-KRME...WITH LOCALIZED EFFECTS KEEPING
ESE WIND 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT VERSUS LOW LEVEL JET FROM SSW 40-45 KTS
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET AGL. KELM ALSO TO EXPERIENCE LLWS
OVERNIGHT. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFICS/TIMING. LLWS GOES AWAY BY
13Z...AND SURFACE WIND KSYR- KRME WILL BE SE 8-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS DUE TO MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING FRONT.

WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA WED MRNG AS COLD FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU/FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN ESPECIALLY KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

945 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACCOMPANIES THE WARM AIR. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY A
THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND AT LEAST
INITIALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND ALSO
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THERE WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...AS FORECAST
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO BRING THEM INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS. DONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT
DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT SETTING US UP FOR A WARM TODAY TOMORROW. ALSO TWEAKED HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUESDAY IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
AREAS FROM ROCHESTER AND THE GENESEE VALLEY ACROSS TO OSWEGO AND
WATERTOWN.

RATHER DRY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF A LARGE BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES...ACROSS
NORTHERN IL BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAST THE SOO BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT REALLY DEEPENING MUCH IF AT ALL TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
WILL REMAIN THERE AND NOT SPREAD SOUTH MUCH. THE RESULT IS A
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.20 OR 0.30 AND NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS SOME ISSUES
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CREATES A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK INLAND.
WILL DISCOUNT THIS. LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWS NOTHING
AS WELL GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL START OF
WITH A STANDARD DECREASING TREND AND THEN INCREASE TEMPERATURES
TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 45KTS NEAR
3000FT....SCRAPE AWAY AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SELECT
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30KT RANGE
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DEEP UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS SSW AND NOT IDEAL
FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT.

FOR TUESDAY...VETERANS DAY LOOKS ABOUT AS NICE AS YOU CAN GET FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH NOT RECORD SETTING...MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S...MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS AND A LITTLE LOWER NEAR THE LAKES. ONLY
PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY FOR FAR WESTERN NY.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG EITHER...WITH MOST
GUSTS GENERALLY ABOUT 30 MPH OR LESS. THE IMMANENT COLD FRONT WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY EVENING
WILL LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING WILL START OFF
UNSEASONABLY WARM...BUT THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ABRUPTLY COLDER AIR.
NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF CONSENSUS TIMING BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM W-E IN THE 06Z TO 15Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT WILL
BE FURTHER FROM LAKE MOISTURE AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE.

FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BURST OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY OR DROP OFF GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S. PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT SHOULD BE RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY...AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS OFFSET BY LAKE
INDUCED CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO -5C
TO -8C. EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE LAKES...WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MORE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.

PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THE KEY FEATURE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE STILL IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE. ALTHOUGH THIS MAKES THE
SPECIFICS HARD TO PIN DOWN...THERE ARE SOME THINGS GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE UPON. WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY A MODEST SPREAD IN GUIDANCE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
WHEN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE BECOMES KEY. THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL DISRUPT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

MID-LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE FAIRLY DRY ORIGINS...BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -10C TO -12C AND INCREASE LAKE
INSTABILITY. ALSO...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE MODEST AND WELL ALIGNED
FROM 06Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THU OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ABOUT 6
HOURS LATER ON LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR A
SINGULAR LAKE BAND WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD
JUST SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS
BAND MAY FORM IS STILL SUBJECT TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS THE TUG
HILL. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE BUFFALO AND/OR ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

QPF GUIDANCE OF LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES A GOOD
STARTING POINT FOR THIS...BUT CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON LAKE
EFFECT BANDS SO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE. IT IS
POSSIBLE ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED IN A LOCALIZED
BAND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/POSITION/OCCURRENCE LEAVES FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FAR SHY OF THE 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD. WILL CONTINUE TO
DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BANDING IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
SIMPLY BE CHILLY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL WELL SHORT OF SETTING ANY
RECORDS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM) DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL
HAPPEN WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. IN GENERAL...THE STEADIEST SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TRADITIONAL LAKE BELTS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...BUT EXPECT
INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED
MULTI-BANDED LAKE SNOWS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE AGREES THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL EAST OF
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT
IN DRIER AIR...BUT WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND
-10C...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE BUT ON A MORE LOCALIZED BASIS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SSW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF/WHEN/WHERE
SNOW WOULD DEVELOP WITH LAKE ENHANCED BANDS DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH A GENERIC CHANCE POP FORECAST
FOR NOW.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES.
LOCAL LAKE SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH IFR.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON LAKE ERIE...BUT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE
GREATER WAVE ACTION IN CANADIAN WATERS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON LAKE ONTARIO
INITIAL EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AT THE NORTHEAST END...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE GREATER WAVE
ACTION TO REMAIN IN CANADIAN WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKES AS COLD AIR RUSHES BACK INTO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

712 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
SHALLOW DECOUPLING LAYER IS COMPETING WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WHICH IS MAKING HOURLY TEMPERATURES QUITE FINICKY
TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY...AND LAKE PLAIN VERSUS TERRAIN. THE OTHER
TRICKY THING IS THE MARINE LAYER MOISTURE COMING UP VIA SSE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST
SHALLOW OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA IF LOOKING AT 925MB RH...AND
AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF THAT SUGGESTED IN THE 18Z GFS. RUC IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP IT AND MORE CONFINED TO POCONOS. IN THE
END...THE LAYER APPEARS THIN ENOUGH TO WHICH EVEN JUST A LITTLE
BIT OF DOWNSLOPING OF THE SSE TO SSW FLOW TUESDAY /WHICH WILL
OCCUR IN FINGER LAKES TO NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR/ SHOULD MANAGE TO
ERADICATE THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUCCESS HANGING
AGAINST THE POCONOS-SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...AND AT LEAST FOR A TIME
THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AS WELL BY MORNING /THOUGH IT WILL TEND TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS/.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RDGG AND SW FLOW TNGT WILL KEEP GRNLY CLR SKIES OVER THE AREA.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A DVLPG MARINE LYR FCST...ESP BY THE
NAM WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLDS INTO TEH SE ZONES LATE TNGT AND
EARLY TUE. DO NOT XPCT ENUF MOISTURE FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME AND
CLDS MAY NOT ADVANCE PAST THE WYOMING VLY.

MODEL GUID IN RSNBL AGREEMENT AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
20S BY THU MRNG...AND ONLY INTO THE 30S MOST PLACE ON THU AFTN...A
GOOD 5 DEGREES BLO NRML FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE TRICKY WITH
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO SOME TERMINALS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIG APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE INTO KAVP
AROUND DAWN...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
/INITIALLY AT FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL/. FOR KBGM...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR
CIG WILL BE INTERMITTENT MID-TO-LATE MORNING BUT LAYER SHOULD BE
THIN AND PRONE TO SCATTERING OUT ESPECIALLY INTO AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING AND/OR DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT CIGS AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. MOST TERMINALS SSE WINDS TONIGHT GENERALLY
4-8 KTS...BECOMING S 8-10 KTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NOTABLE EXCEPTION
AND DEVELOPING LLWS FOR KSYR-KRME...WITH LOCALIZED EFFECTS KEEPING
ESE WIND 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT VERSUS LOW LEVEL JET FROM SSW 40-45 KTS
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET AGL. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFICS/TIMING. LLWS
GOES AWAY BY 13Z...AND SURFACE WIND KSYR-KRME WILL BE SE 8-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS DUE TO MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING FRONT.

WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA WED MRNG AS COLD FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU/FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN ESPECIALLY KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

643 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER DRY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF A LARGE BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES...ACROSS
NORTHERN IL BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAST THE SOO BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT REALLY DEEPENING MUCH IF AT ALL TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
WILL REMAIN THERE AND NOT SPREAD SOUTH MUCH. THE RESULT IS A
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.20 OR 0.30 AND NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS SOME ISSUES
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CREATES A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK INLAND.
WILL DISCOUNT THIS. LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWS NOTHING
AS WELL GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL START OF
WITH A STANDARD DECREASING TREND AND THEN INCREASE TEMPERATURES
TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 45KTS NEAR
3000FT....SCRAPE AWAY AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SELECT
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30KT RANGE
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DEEP UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS SSW AND NOT IDEAL
FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES.
LOCAL LAKE SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH IFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

330 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST OFF SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL END AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL COME ON FRIDAY AFTER A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS INDICATE THE PCPN HAS
DEFINITELY BECOME MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS
MORNING. COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND SURF CITY COULD SEE
1 LAST CHANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE SFC LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN IS
NOW PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR TEMPORARY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH REGARD TO BOTH POPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. BOTH SREF
AND LATEST HRRR CONFIRM THE END OF PCPN TO OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET
ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT SUPPORT DIMINISHING WINDS TO EITHER VARIABLE LESS THAN 3
MPH OR POSSIBLY GOING COMPLETELY CALM AFTER SUNSET. THE VARIOUS SFC
PARAMETERS SUPPORT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS. THIS IN RESPONSE TO WINDS DECOUPLING
AS A RESULT OF A SFC BASED INVERSION. LATER SHIFTS WILL DETERMINE IF
THE FOG WORSENS GIVEN 00Z GUIDANCE BECOMING AVBL. TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NEARLY MIRROR ONE ANOTHER WITH
RESPECT TO TONIGHTS LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REACHING THE OFF
SHORE WATERS OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE E-NE
FARTHER AWAY FROM AREA. INITIALLY WILL EXPERIENCE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ON BACK END OF LOW AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE
COAST EARLY MONDAY. PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INLAND. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
GREATEST RH VALUES ABOVE H4 AND THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS
AROUND BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD AID IN WARMING OF TEMPS WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES...REACHING UP NEAR 70.

BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUES...THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND SOME
CLOUDS AND PCP WILL WRAP FAR ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW TO REACH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM KEEPS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
BRUSHING OUR COAST. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 1.7 INCHES TUES
MORNING ALONG THE NC COAST WHILE HEADING TOWARD FLORENCE SC THE
PCP WATER REMAINS BELOW A HALF INCH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
CLOUDS AND LOW END CHC OF PCP AFFECTING COASTAL ZONES..ESPECIALLY
NC COAST. INLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT AND THEN AS LOW LIFTS
AWAY ON TUES WILL SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH MOISTURE NOT REACHING FAR INLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS...EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND COULD BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS UP
NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST ON TUES WHILE INLAND DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY
REMAIN LESS THAN 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALSO AFFECT TEMPS. OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL DAY LOCALLY...BUT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WKND.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH WEAK CAA FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT FILTER INTO
THE REGION UNTIL A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH EARLY
FRIDAY. FRI/SAT WILL BOTH FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS ON THE SECONDARY SURGE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS QUITE DRY...AND WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED CHC POP FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
LITTLE QPF. WHILE FRI/SAT WILL BE COLD...THE TEMPS ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS CHILLY AS THE COLD SNAP EXPERIENCED THE BEGINNING
OF NOVEMBER. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER LOOKING AT THE DRIER GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAY FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...THAT IS TRACKING NE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AS THE
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST...LEAVING A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH A SFC BASED INVERSION LIKELY SETTING UP
MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT FOR
NOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MOISTURE IN THE SFC THRU 1K FOOT LEVEL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU
WITH A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED UNSETTLE WEATHER FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE FIRST LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING AND
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE ILM WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE ACROSS THE ILM WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
THE EARLY STAGES OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OVERALL...THE CURRENT AND PROGGED
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A NNE-NE WIND DIRECTION THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PG WILL YIELD 10-15 KT WIND
SPEEDS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK MON.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ILM
SC WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OFF
FLORIDA.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT. SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS
FOR BUOYS ACROSS THE ILM WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS ARE ILLUSTRATING WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO REMAIN THE MAJOR
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE 1 TO 2
FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP FROM FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE E-NE ON TUES. ALTHOUGH LOW REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH MON NIGHT. WNA HAS BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH
SHOULD WARRANT A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT WITH 5 FTERS IN OUTER
WATERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 6 FTERS INTO TUES MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT HEADING INTO MON
NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO N-NW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE E-NE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT MON
MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT MOST OF THE PERIOD IN
NORTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. MORE OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW LATER
TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING N/NE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT N/NE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS. A
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE ON
THURSDAY...ACTING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND TURNING WINDS
AGAIN TO THE NW BUT AT SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE OF 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THEREAFTER. WAVE
HEIGHTS THURSDAY BUILD TO 3-4 FT...AND THEN TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY WHEN
AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1254 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END ABRUPTLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS INDICATE THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN...CONTINUES TO HUG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF PCPN EXTENDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS...FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM THE
COAST...NEARLY UP TO THE BASE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WAS NOT
ANTICIPATING THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXTENDING THIS FAR
INLAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TODAYS MAXES BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES
LOW ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT WERE THOUGHT TO RECEIVE A DECENT DOSE OF
INSOLATION. AS FOR THE PCPN...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING...IN THAT NO INLAND OR WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED. THE R- WILL HUG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
ILM CWA MAINLAND BY EVENING. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SLIP EAST THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE NO WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND N-NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REAL
ACTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXIST: ONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW AND A
SECOND OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. IT`S THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST...INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.

RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
HUGGING THE COAST. THIS IS BEING GENERATED UP IN THE MID LEVELS BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 310K-315K THETA SURFACES... APPROXIMATELY
14000-18000 FEET UP. PRECIP RATES HAVE BECOME HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
DRY AIR BELOW THE ALTOSTRATUS BASE IS NOT ABLE TO EVAPORATE THE RAIN
BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW RAIN
ESSENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS RADAR RETURNS ARE OCCURRING
NOW...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY 14-15Z. WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE
RAISED POPS TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT OVER BALD HEAD ISLAND AND
COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH HIGHS FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS...AND GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD...63-65
FOR MOST AREAS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND 850 MB THERE
APPEARS TO BE NO LIFT IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A CLOUD DECK...SO I WILL
FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW HAVE THE SHORTWAVE JUST ABOUT CUTOFF AS IT CROSSES FL
MON WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT STALLED WELL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND
PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER MON NIGHT AND ON TUE AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTH. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT SEEM ALL THAT
HIGH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL SYSTEM AND LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY. INHERITED A DRY
FORECAST AND HAVING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FEEL ONLY SLIGHT
CHC POP ALONG THE COAST IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST
AND CLEAR. IT COULD BE THAT COASTAL NC REMAINS UNDER OVC SKIES FOR
MOST OF TUE WHILE INLAND SC SEES LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS TUE MORNING. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD MON AND TUE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH BEHIND THE 5H LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY WED. PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. COLD ADVECTION POST FRONT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG
AT FIRST...BUT IT IS RELENTLESS. COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO THU. COLD ADVECTION GAINS
STRENGTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES. 850 TEMPS
WILL DROP FROM AROUND 10C THU AFTERNOON TO ZERO OR JUST BELOW FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND ACCOMPANIED BY...AT BEST...MARGINAL LIFT. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP LATER THU AND AGAIN FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND MID LEVELS COOL...INCREASING INSTABILITY. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE AND THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU
WITH A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED UNSETTLE WEATHER FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...THE FIRST LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OF THE
ILM WATERS BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS
THE ILM WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE EARLY
STAGES OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OVERALL...THE CURRENT AND
PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A NNE-NE WIND DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PG WILL YIELD 10-15 KT WIND
SPEEDS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT.
SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS FOR BUOYS ACROSS THE ILM AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...ALL ILLUSTRATE WIND DRIVEN WAVES
HAVING BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THE
1 TO 2 FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO WIND SHIFT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG TONIGHT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MODELS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WINDS:
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FEET EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR TONIGHT. ONE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY IS TO INCLUDE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN SHOULD LATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...5H TROUGH/LOW CROSSING FL MON MORNING WILL
ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE...PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE LATER TUE. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT A BIT.
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STACKED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SEAS
WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT MON MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND
MON NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS
DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE
GULF COAST WED WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THU BY PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. WEAK GRADIENT WED WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OFFSHORE INTO
WED NIGHT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THU WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. INITIAL COLD SURGE THU
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH NORTHEAST FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SECONDARY
SURGE THU NIGHT RESULTING IN A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THU
NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED INTO THU BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER THU
AND THU NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT IN NC ZONES
NEAR 20 NM LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/DL
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1025 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SLIP EAST THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE NO WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND N-NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REAL
ACTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXIST: ONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW AND A
SECOND OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. IT`S THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST...INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP OFFSHORE...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN SO. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
NEXT SET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU WITH A
COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO WIND SHIFT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG TONIGHT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MODELS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WINDS:
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FEET EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR TONIGHT. ONE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY IS TO INCLUDE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN SHOULD LATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...5H TROUGH/LOW CROSSING FL MON MORNING WILL
ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE...PASSING WELL OFFSHORE
LATER TUE. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT A BIT. NORTHEAST
FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE STACKED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM
2 TO 4 FT MON MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO
3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST WED WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THU BY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WEAK
GRADIENT WED WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OFFSHORE INTO WED NIGHT.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THU WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. INITIAL COLD SURGE THU AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SECONDARY SURGE THU NIGHT
RESULTING IN A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THU NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT WED INTO THU BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT IN NC ZONES NEAR 20 NM LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

920 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM SUNDAY...SHEARED SHORT WAVE TROF AND ACCOMPANYING ILL-DEFINED
COLD FRONT WHERE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z U/A ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING OFFSHORE
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH
WEAK FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR
AND THE HRRR MODEL I WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH 18Z THEN INDICATE DRYING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE ILL
DEFINED COLD FRONT FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING BUT WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
OVER INLAND AREAS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AMID A ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW.
LIGHT N/NE BNDRY LAYER FLOW SHUD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FULL POTENTIAL INLAND DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WINDS. EXPECT LOWS NEAR 40/LOW 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50S AT
THE COAST WITH A LIGHT BREEZE OFF WARMER WATER.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
OFF THE FL COAST AND LIFTING A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. TWEAKED THE POP
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE SLIGHTLY BASED ON 00Z
GUIDANCE...INCREASING POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRES RIDGES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW
WED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
RIDGING INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED WITH
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES
WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. NO SIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THU...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MON-WED...THEN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM NE ACRS THE AREA
TODAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5K FT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN TAF SITES (OAJ/EWN)
FOR A TIME AS PATCHY LIGHT RAIN GRAZES THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
PASSES THRU THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER EXPECT A LIGHTLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER TO PREVENT FOG
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR
NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
THE SE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS. SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE WED WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THU.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS LOW PRES OFF
THE SE COAST MOVES NE WELL AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL
OFF THE NC COAST TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT AT
THE COAST TO SUPPORT 10-20 KT WINDS THRU EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH MON...HOWEVER MODELS STRONGER WITH LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS MON INTO TUE...BRINGING TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY...TO AROUND 15KT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTION...DEVELOPING THE
STRONGEST WINDS. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF GFS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20-25 KT. LOCAL NWPS SHOWS SEAS
BUILDING TO 6FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...WITH PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS DIMINISH SOME
TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. THE NEXT FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WED AND EXPECT NLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/JME/CQD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

630 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SLIP EAST THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE NO WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND N-NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REAL
ACTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXIST: ONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW AND A
SECOND OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. IT`S THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST...INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP OFFSHORE...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN SO. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
NEXT SET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU WITH A
COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO WIND SHIFT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG TONIGHT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODELS
ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS AVERAGING
2-3 FEET EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS DEVELOPING AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR
CAPE FEAR TONIGHT. ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY IS TO
INCLUDE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN SHOULD LATE THIS
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...5H TROUGH/LOW CROSSING FL MON MORNING WILL
ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE...PASSING WELL OFFSHORE
LATER TUE. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT A BIT. NORTHEAST
FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE STACKED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM
2 TO 4 FT MON MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO
3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST WED WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THU BY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WEAK
GRADIENT WED WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OFFSHORE INTO WED NIGHT.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THU WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. INITIAL COLD SURGE THU AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SECONDARY SURGE THU NIGHT
RESULTING IN A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THU NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT WED INTO THU BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT IN NC ZONES NEAR 20 NM LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1059 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR AND TRANQUIL CONDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING UNDER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. IR LOOP AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATE
THERE WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE
NORTH...AS WAA ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

RADIATIONAL COOLING...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR STREAMING
NWWD OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC...MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAWN
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY LOWEST IN
THIS REGION AND LATEST RAP/HRRR SFC RH IMPLY THIS REGION WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO AM FOG.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS UP TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE. LIGHTER SERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAD COOLING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE U30S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT A
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. THE
BREEZIEST AND WARMEST CONDS RELATIVE TO NORMAL SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BENEATH SFC RIDGE AXIS.

ANY EARLY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. LATEST MDL RH TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS
UPWARD A BIT BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS FROM RAP AND 00Z NAM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMTH IN THE 925-850MB LYR AND EXPECTED MSUNNY
SKIES...MAY YET BE TOO CONSERVATIVE.

WILL MAINTAIN POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

THICKER CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY LATE
EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY
12Z WED.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...AS SPRAWLING
1050MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS.
MEAN RIDGING ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO NWRN NOAM WILL HELP
SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU THRU
MON AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE ERN U.S. THE COLD
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NW MTNS AND WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS...THERE
ARE DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THAT
ADDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BROADER PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE THU NGT AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAMES.

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT THANKS TO A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
MVFR TO PSBLY LCL LOW END IFR CIGS AND MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
LOWER SUSQ TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO LLVL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-14Z. KEPT LLWS FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID
MORNING TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL LAYER
INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS...ABOVE THE GENERALLY LIGHT SSE SFC
FLOW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH 12Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM MVFR FOG/HZ AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR-LOW MVFR RANGE
LIKELY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS /AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS
KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT/. VFR ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS OF
PENN.

TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT WITH REDUCTIONS LIKELY...MAINLY LATE AT
NIGHT. SHRA LIKELY ACROSS THE NW LATE IN THE EVENING...SPREADING
SE TO NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIZZLE POSS SE.
POSS LLWS WEST.

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST.

THU...PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS KBFD.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1056 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

WILL MAINTAIN POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

LLWS TO ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MID MORNING TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 1.5-3
KFT AGL LAYER INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS...ABOVE THE GENERALLY
LIGHT SSE SFC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM MVFR FOG/HZ AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR-LOW MVFR RANGE
LIKELY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS /AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS
KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT/. VFR ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS OF
PENN.

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST.

THU...PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS KBFD.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

559 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST DATA AVAILABLE...HAVE ELECTED
TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE SUBSTANTIVE AMOUNTS OF DUST ARE BEING
LIFTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...THAT AREA HAS BEEN A FAIR BIT DRIER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...HERE IN
LUBBOCK...MOST OF THE DUST SHOULD HAVE ORIGINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE OVERLY DRAMATIC THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE A HAZE IN THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
D4 DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERIST...VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO NEAR 1
MILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE MESONET
REPORTS THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
MIXING...SUSPECT HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOUTH PLAINS. IF YOU MOW YOUR LAWN
TONIGHT...YOU MAY NOT HAVE TO SWEEP.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A WELL
DEFINED HABOOB IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BLOWING DUST MAY TRIGGER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE
HOURS ALTHOUGH MORE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY HELP KEEP THE
DUST LEVELS DOWN A BIT AT OUR TWO TERMINALS. NEVERTHELESS...INVOF
THE FRONT...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
WITH LOCALLY PRONOUNCED WIND SHEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...STRONG DRY AND WARM WESTERLY COMPONENT
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AS SURFACE LOW EDGES
FURTHER SOUTH AND GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. WE ARE HITTING A FEW
MINUTES OF RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA THOUGH
LATEST ERC LEVELS INDICATE A MORE MARGINAL THREAT. THEN...A STIFF
BLUE NORTHER WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATE
THIS EVENING CAUSING A VERY DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS. AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW A LINE OF BLOWING DUST IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
COMING OFF SOURCE REGIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL POSE A BIG RISK FOR BLOWING DUST TONIGHT BUT WE
HAVE ADDED SOME MENTION OF DUST FOR IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT. AND WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LATEST HRRR TRENDS SUPPORT PASSAGE AT KCDS BY 03Z AND KLBB BY 05Z
WHILE ALSO SHOWING STRONGER SPEEDS FURTHER WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. FREEZE
WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT REMAIN APPROPRIATE.
HIGHEST SURFACE PRESSURES WILL REMAIN NORTH ON TUESDAY AND THE COLD
AIR PLUNGE WILL NOT ABATE. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL RELENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED
EARLY TUESDAY. FOR THIS AND MORE SUMMER WILL BE MISSED. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL RUDELY PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TRICKY...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SPLIT IN DEVELOPING A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SHOULD
THIS MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT SUPPRESSED...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. OPTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS
THIS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT OVERALL DID NOT MAKE MANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. BY SATURDAY...RECOVERING
SURFACE WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S...BUT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT IS SET TO PLUNGE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. THE NATURE OF
THIS SECOND COLD SURGE IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY KIND OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...AS
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO CLING TO ITS DEPICTION OF A
STRONGER...WETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME. EVEN
WITH THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF SCENARIOS...THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY
WILL PASS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND WOULD LIKELY
NOT RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH THE FROPA
EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH TRENDS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO LOOK DRIER AND DRIER. IN FACT...THE
LATEST ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS ALL BUT ABANDONED ITS DEPICTION
OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH
ISNT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION SEEMED TO
BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 41 18 30 17 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 24 40 19 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 25 41 20 30 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 27 43 22 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 28 42 22 33 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 30 48 24 36 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 29 45 24 34 22 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 32 43 21 35 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 32 45 22 33 23 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 35 47 26 36 24 / 0 0 0 0 0

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-037>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031-033>037-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>036-039>042.

26/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

541 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Gusty south winds will continue at KABI and KSJT through the next
24 hours. Farther south winds will diminish after sunset, and
increase after sunrise tomorrow. Gusty north winds will develop
following frontal passage. Models hint at MVFR stratus developing
at some terminals overnight. However, confidence in this was not
high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Veterans Day)

MUCH colder temperatures for tomorrow as an Arctic blast moves
through tonight.

Currently, we have breezy southwest winds across the area with
temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold
front is just making its way into the TX panhandle, and is on
track to move into our counties right around midnight tonight if
it continues at its current speed. Latest RUC data shows the front
moving into the Haskell/Throckmorton County area between 11 PM and
Midnight. And if the front does differ on timing, it will likely
be earlier considering how cold/dense this air mass is. Regardless
of the exact timing of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 30
degrees colder tomorrow. The temperature forecast itself only
required minor changes. And although sustained winds along the
front are currently 30-40 mph, with gusts over 50 mph, we do not
expect winds quite that strong as it moves through our area.
Surface pressure rises are currently around 20 millibars/6 hours
along the nose of the front as it moves south through eastern
Colorado/western Kansas. By the time the front is in our area,
these pressure rises will be spread laterally along the front, and
weaken to a max of around 15 mb/6 hours. So, we will see mainly 20
to 30 mph with higher gusts immediately along the front, and
weaken to 10 to 20 mph throughout the day Tuesday.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s along and north of I-20
tonight where the front will have time to cool things off, with
mainly lower 40s elsewhere. Along and south of Interstate 10 where
the front will not have much time to cool things, lows will be in
the upper 40s to near 50. On Tuesday, temperatures will remain in
the 40s for most of the day, but there will be a lot of sun to
fight the cold air advection, and so areas along and south of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line should be able to manage highs in
the lower to mid 50s. There may be a few clouds right along the
front as it moves through, but skies should remain mostly clear
other than that.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night)

Plan for temperatures overnight Tuesday night to fall into mainly
the 22 to 30 range across West Central Texas.

Surface winds from the north Tuesday night will bring much colder
and drier air into West Central Texas. This inflow of cold arctic
air will likely bring the first freeze to all of West Central
Texas. We have extended the Freeze Watch to include all our
counties. However, we decided to just continue a watch for now,
given confidence issues regarding how far south the freeze will
go. Model data this run indicate temperatures will be some 5 to 7
degrees colder this period than the previous model data the
midnight shift used last night.

(Wednesday)

Expect much colder than normal temperatures Wednesday.

Winds from the north will continue to bring cold arctic air into
West Central Texas Wednesday. Models indicate winds will not be as
strong Wednesday; nevertheless, surface cold air advection will
continue, as surface high pressure builds over the region. Models
this cycle presented temperatures numbers very close to numbers from
our previous package. So, we didn`t make any major changes here.
Highs mainly in the 40s still look likely for all areas, except
perhaps our Interstate 10 corridor, where highs will likely be
around 50.

(Wednesday night)

Freezing temperatures look likely again around sunrise Thursday
morning.

Models this cycle present colder lows for this period than the
previous run. With light surface winds from the north continuing
into Wednesday night, lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s look
reasonable. So, we did adjust numbers down a few degrees from our
previous numbers for this period.

(Thursday)

Surface winds from the north will shift during the day, and by
Thursday afternoon, surface winds will be from the east. East
winds are up-slope for our area. Thus, highs Thursday in the 40s
look best.

(Thursday night through Friday night)

A warming trend dominates these periods, as surface winds from the
southeast and south return. In response to another cold front,
highs on Friday will be mainly in the 55 to 60 range; that`s much
closer to seasonal normals.

(Saturday through Monday)

Another cold front and associated upper-level system may bring
cold temperatures and perhaps additional rain to West Central
Texas. Confidence still is not real high regarding where and when
rain may occur. The GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement this
cycle, with neither developing any closed circulation aloft during
the Saturday to Saturday night periods. So, with confidence not
high, numbers and Pops close to a blend of models look reasonable.

Huber

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 37 48 24 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 5
San Angelo 41 52 25 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 5
Junction 47 54 31 50 29 / 0 0 0 5 5

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

99/24/60

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

523 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A WELL
DEFINED HABOOB IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BLOWING DUST MAY TRIGGER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE
HOURS ALTHOUGH MORE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY HELP KEEP THE
DUST LEVELS DOWN A BIT AT OUR TWO TERMINALS. NEVERTHELESS...INVOF
THE FRONT...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
WITH LOCALLY PRONOUNCED WIND SHEAR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-037>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031-033>037-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034.

99/99/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

900 AM PST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND OBS SHOW RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING THROUGH PUGET SOUND AT 830 AM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS
FORMED ALONG THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE. THE HRRR HINTS AT THIS
AND THE NAM12 SHOWS A MORE DEFINED CONVERGENCE ZONE GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 850 MB FLOW TURNS NWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN MORE NLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE SWD INTO THE REMAINDER
OF KING COUNTY AND NRN PIERCE COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AREAS IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
DRY OUT THE EVENING PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE CORRIDOR.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OUT NEAR 135 N. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHT MONDAY MORNING SO THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS AND THE SW INTERIOR. MOST THE AREA WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50.

THINGS GET INTERESTING BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. WA WILL BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER N/CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A HUGE 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE
INTERIOR PAC NW...ROCKIES...AND EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG BY TUESDAY WITH KBLI-KYWL PEAKING
AT +15 TO +17 DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW ACROSS THE N INTERIOR AND NEAR GAPS ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THESE
AREAS WITH HIGH WIND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS WRN WHATCOM
COUNTY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST. MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO WRN WA. THE GFS
NORMALLY SPILLS TOO MUCH COOLER AIR INTO WRN WA BUT IT IS ONE OF THE
MILDER MODELS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -2 TO -4C...SIMILAR TO
THE WRFGFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM12/WRFNAM/CANADIAN ARE ALL VERY BULLISH
ON POURING THE COLD AIR INTO WRN WA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
MODELS ARE STRONGER WITH THE ELY 850 MB FLOW AND DEEPER WITH THE
COLD AIR ALLOWING IT TO SPILL OVER THE CASCADES RATHER THAN LEAK
THROUGH THE GAPS. THE NAM12/WRFNAM ARE THE COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -8 TO -12C ACROSS WRN WA TUESDAY. A NAM12 CROSS SECTION FROM
CALGARY TO HOQUIAM CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS COLD AIR SPILLAGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/CASCADES. AS A RESULT...MOS GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE ALL THE NEW 12Z RUNS BEFORE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TODAY
HIGHLIGHTING THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH SOME WIND...AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR MANY AREAS COULD OCCUR BY
MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OFF THE COAST STARTING TO GET PINCHED OFF WITH THE BROAD COLD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR
140W. COOL DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
40S. CHANGES IN THE PATTERN BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND FOR MANY MODEL RUNS IN A ROW THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HAD
A DIFFERENT IDEA ON HOW THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE.
ON THE 00Z RUN THE SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN LINE
WITH EACH OTHER BUT THE SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. BOTH MODELS
UNDERCUT THE HIGH WITH A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS STALLS THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN OREGON ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM JUST OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM SPREADING THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM
COMING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE AIR MASS
DRY AND COOL. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM IS VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST IS A
MESH OF THE MODELS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND
CENTRAL COAST AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM STALLED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 7 WITH THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
AREA AND THE NEXT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WELL TO THE WEST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL STAY
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME AND WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN
OR TWO BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE SATURDAY FORECAST.
FELTON

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

.CLIMATE...THE PRECIPITATION TOTAL AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT SO FAR
THIS YEAR IS 39.88 INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WITH TODAYS RAIN
THE YEARLY TOTAL WILL GO ABOVE 40 INCHES. THE EARLIEST DATE THAT THE
YEARLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL HAS SURPASSED 40 INCHES IN SEATTLE IS ON
OCTOBER 31ST IN THE RECORD YEAR OF 1950. IF SEATTLE SURPASSES THE 40
INCH MARK TODAY IT WOULD BE THE SECOND EARLIEST ON RECORD. FELTON

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE NORTH OREGON COAST THEN
WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
THEN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS PRES GRADIENTS RELAX. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY AND
STABILIZE TONIGHT. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.

STEADY PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE CASCADES
AND TO SOME CONVERGENCE BANDS TO THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. A CONVERGENCE ZONE NOW SEEN AROUND
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTH TO THE SEATAC AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHOWERS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...SOUTHWEST WIND 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS A CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KT
THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP TO BKN020 WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS IS NOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL SPREAD
INTO THE STRAIT AND ADMIRALTY INLET LATER THIS MORNING. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING
WATERS.

GRADIENTS WILL RELAX AND TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS MON MORNING
AND AROUND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES LATER MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME OF THIS COLD HIGH PRES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE WATERS ALONG WITH FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...THROUGH THE STRAIT...AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
STARTING LATER MON NIGHT OR TUE AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH WED
NIGHT OR THU. WINDS WILL RELAX ON THU. ALBRECHT

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ROUGH BAR
CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

954 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS SE WI LATE TNT WITH
NLY WINDS AND THE COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES...LOW STRATUS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL FORM
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL WI. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
PCPN UNTIL LATE TNT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DURING THIS TIME.
A DRY SLOT WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE TUE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEREBY
ENDING THE PCPN. THE CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW SHOULD REACH MSN
AROUND 15Z...AND MKE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IF THERE IS ANY PCPN
LEFT. A VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUM IS FORECAST OVER THE NW CWA CLOSER
TO A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...CIGS BELOW 1.0 KFT IS EXPECTED TUE AM WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. VSBYS MAINLY FROM 3-5SM FROM LIGHT
FOG OR DRIZZLE/RAIN IS EXPECTED AS WELL TUE AM. THE NWLY WINDS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...ENOUGH TO RAISE THE
CIGS TO 1.0-2.0 KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE MADISON AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND 15Z. FOR UES...MKE...AND ENW
THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR AROUND 18-19Z IF THERE IS ANY PCPN LEFT
AT THE TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB LOW CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING DECENT SATURATION IN A DEEP LAYER...MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

NAMNEST/WRFNMM/WRFARW MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO
BACK OFF WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE GIVEN HRRR SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA.

THUS...CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS TONIGHT...WITH HIGH POPS TUESDAY
MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS TUESDAY...CONTINUED MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOWER POPS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PERHAPS 1/2 TO 1 INCH. MOST OTHER AREAS
WILL SEE A DUSTING TO NO SNOW.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL THEN BRING SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPSTREAM JET MAX BEGINS TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. WEAK 250 MB DIVERGENCE RESULTS IN 700 MB
DOWNWARD MOTION TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RE-ENFORCES THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE U.S.

700/850 MB RH DRIES BUT 925 MB RH IS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO
EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -13 WEDNESDAY WITH
1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 515/525 DECAMETERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE TROUGH AXIS OF ONE SHORTWAVE IN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF BUT IS SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF
BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
THE DETAILS OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 1000 TO 500
MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 510/516 DECAMETERS AS THE HIGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BROAD TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY.

THE CENTER OF THE LARGE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. THIS HIGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES IOWA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE JUST A LITTLE SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A FASTER AND STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE 12Z GFS DRIVING A DEEPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THIS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN A BROAD TROUGH BUILDS
AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH
AND EAST. BOTH MODELS RE-ENFORCE THE COLD AIR MONDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL EARLY EVENING...MAINLY AT THE EASTERN
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH THE LOW PASSING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING
WEST NORTHWEST AND GUSTY INTO THE REST OF TUESDAY.

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REACH MADISON BY 08Z TUESDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SHOULD SEE A MIX AT MADISON AFTER 14Z TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN AT THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BRING HIGH WAVES. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT.

GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1227 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN THE EAST SECTION. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH THIS
CLOUDINESS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SO STILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CSRA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS HELPED SUPPORT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING. A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER
WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS SO WE FORECASTED CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS INSTEAD OF IFR. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP
DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR MASS WITH AN INCREASE IN
WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

232 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BIG CHANGES COMING TODAY IN THE FORM OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH
AS OF 08Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A MLC...DFW...SJT LINE. THIS FRONT IS
MOVING SE CLOSE TO 35KTS AND IS QUICKLY OUTRUNNING ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM PROGS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
POST FRONTAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS PLUS AND FOR THIS REASON...
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD
FOR TODAY. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DROP
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OUACHITAS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
BOUNDARY DOWN A LITTLE AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE BUT FOR GRID
PURPOSES...WENT WITH THE HRRR IN THE FIRST 12HRS OF THE FORECAST
WHICH IS A MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE FASTER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL MET/MAV MOS. KEPT POP MENTION
TODAY UNTOUCHED AS THE BETTER COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF TODAY AS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER ASSUMING A
BROKEN LINE CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EVEN THROUGH THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET. BECAUSE OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEING POSTED WITH THIS PACKAGE...WILL DEFER THE POSSIBLE
FREEZE WARNING TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BUT THIS FORECAST WILL
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WHICH WILL HELP TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVHD IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET
TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WE LOSE THIS MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FORECAST HAS
OUR ENTIRE AREA SEEING A FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT SO A FREEZE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE COUNTIES/PARISHES THAT DO NOT
GET ONE TONIGHT.

WE SHOULD STAY DRY BUT COLD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY IN THIS CONTINUED
FAST/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS
WITH IT TO DRAW UP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL THIS WEEKEND BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR JUST A COLD RAIN
BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF OUR NW ZONES ON SUNDAY JUST AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

THE RELOADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST PER THE ECMWF RUN OF
MONDAY MORNING NO LONGER SHOWS UP IN ITS CURRENT 00Z TUE RUN. THUS
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE...
WILL BE GOING WITH A COOL BUT DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE MODERATED ENOUGH BY
THEN FOR NO WINTER PRECIP CONCERNS.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING LZK/DFW...PRELIMS TO
FOLLOW...13.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 63 37 53 35 47 / 30 0 0 10 10
MLU 68 38 54 34 47 / 30 20 0 10 10
DEQ 51 29 47 29 43 / 20 0 0 10 10
TXK 55 32 48 32 42 / 20 0 0 10 10
ELD 64 35 51 33 46 / 30 10 0 10 10
TYR 48 34 51 35 46 / 20 0 0 10 10
GGG 54 34 52 35 46 / 30 0 0 10 10
LFK 64 37 55 37 49 / 30 10 0 10 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>004-010.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

302 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD OVER THE EAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL MID NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST...AND THIS BASIC ARRANGEMENT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WITH A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE FOR
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
EAST AND NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE A FREQUENT FORECAST PHRASE OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SNOWY CLIP OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO ON TAP FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION CENTER SITTING OVER THE
WILLISTON BASIN OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ANCHORING BROAD TROUGH
SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S...AND KEEPING NEW MEXICO
IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTH TO THE UPPER
YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND YUKON FLATS REGION OF EASTERN ALASKA AND
WESTERN ARCTIC CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BORDERS A LARGE COLD
AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE U.S...WITH LOCAL ADVANCEMENT TO
ROUGHLY A TAOS TO ROSWELL LINE...AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS HOBBS
AND LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS. AS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES HAVE TAKEN THE BIG DIVE OVER THE
EAST...WITH TEENS AND 20S OVERNIGHT COMMON OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...AS ROSWELL AND POINTS SOUTH DIP INTO THE 30S.
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT STORY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEST...WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S AND
50S. THIS COLD EAST AND WARMER WEST PATTERN WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
EMERGING TUESDAY ON MOVEMENTS AND STRENGTHS OF SYSTEMS THROUGH NEW
MEXICO. GOOD START BACKS FLOW ALOFT TO TURBULENT ZONAL TODAY...AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE CRANKS UP OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND SHEARS
RAPIDLY OUT OF IDAHO AND THE EASTERN WASHINGTON PALOUSE COUNTRY TO
CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM
RIDGE DECAPITATES NEATLY LATE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SPEEDIER
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL AMPLIFY VERY GRADUALLY LATE FRIDAY FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT
SHORTWAVE IN LINE AMPLIFYING OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL DIG
RAPIDLY TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND SHEAR RAPIDLY INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
TO WESTERN ARCTIC CANADA WILL BE DECAPITATED LATE MONDAY...WITH
SOUTHERN RIDGE REMNANTS COLLAPSING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON WHAT COMES NEXT...AS
EUROPEAN FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF DEEPEN A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND MOVE THIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK AND ENDING
THE STORY WITH NEW MEXICO BACK IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DOMESTIC COLLEAGUES AT GFS PREFER A MUCH SMALLER AND FASTER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY IN A LESS AMPLIFIED AND
MORE ZONAL PATTERN. GIVEN THAT THE RECENT ECMWF HISTORY HAS BEEN
TO BACK OFF ON THE AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING DISTURBANCES FROM
UPSTREAM RIDGE DECAPITATIONS AND UNDERCUT AND LOOK MORE LIKE THE
GFS CLOSER TO GAME TIME...WILL TILT EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD THE GFS THIS ROUND FOR A MORE ZONAL...MORE QUICK BLIP
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...PENDING EXPECTED BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SOLUTIONS IN FUTURE RUNS.

FOR VETERANS DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
RUN 25 TO 45 DEGREES COLDER...REALLY...THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY.
CLAYTON AND RATON WILL BOTH BARELY BREAK FREEZING...WITH 40S
COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...TRANSITIONING INTO SOME 50S OVER CHAVES COUNTY. ACTION
WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN PLAINS 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE DAY. DIFFERENT STORY IN THE WEST ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STALLED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO LINE FROM RATON PASS AND INTERSTATE 25 EASTWARD
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN NEW MEXICO. BREEZY WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THOSE LOGGED ON MONDAY...WITH WESTERLY
BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. ANOTHER
COLD ONE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT OVER THE EAST...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
IN FOR CLAYTON...AND BROAD AREA OF TEENS FROM RATON TO
CLOVIS...WITH 20S AND LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE SET A PLACEHOLDER
FREEZE WATCH FOR EASTERN LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CHAVES...FOR TONIGHT AS THESE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTIES MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THIS MORNING WITHOUT BUMPING INTO
THE CHILLY 32.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE BROAD PATTERN...AS FLOW ALOFT
MAKES AGONIZING BACK TO ZONAL...FRONT REMAINS IN A HARD STALL OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND SOME INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPINGE ON ANY BENEFITS SOLAR
INSOLATION MAY HAVE OTHERWISE PROVIDED. EASTERN TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN LOCKED 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW MID NOVEMBER NORMALS...WHILE
THE WEST LOSES SOME GROUND BUT REMAINS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND UP OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH NEAR THE COLORADO LINE DURING THE
DAY...BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVING OVER THE INTENSE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EXPAND ISOLATED SNOW COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDE COVERAGE WILL NOT TRANSLATE
INTO MUCH SNOW...WITH SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND RATON PASS AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AGAIN...AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL HELP EASE THE COLD IN THE
EAST...BRINGING EASTERN POINTS UP TO A MERE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
MID NOVEMBER NORMALS...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS NEAR NORMAL.
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER...WITH THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS OF THE SNOWY VARIETY GENERALLY
FROM I 25 EAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND VALLEY RAINS
WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO SUMMITS IN THE WARMER AIR. WIDE
COVERAGE BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL KEEP LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE PICTURE...WITH AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. CONTINUED BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND HIGHER SLOPES NEAR THE COLORADO LINE...AND IN
SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.

FOR FRIDAY...CONTINUED EASING OF THE COLD OVER THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES IMPROVING TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID NOVEMBER
NORMALS...WHILE THE WEST CONTINUES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHTER AS SPEEDY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COUPLES WITH EASTWARD SHIFT OF SURFACE LOW TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND CONSEQUENT PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD INTO
TEXAS. QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ZONAL SPEEDY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP CONTINUED SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH COVERAGE EXTENDING PRETTY
MUCH TO EVERYPLACE FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING MUCH OF THE STATE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID
NOVEMBER NORMALS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COLDEST IN THE EAST. SOME
REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH ALL BUT THE WEST REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
NORTHERN RAIN AND SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT PLOWS THROUGH THE
STATE AND PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EAST. DYNAMICS
WILL HAVE CLEARED INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY TO CLEAR SKIES OUT
SOMEWHAT...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN LINE EMBEDDED IN AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIPPING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

SHY

.FIRE WEATHER...
BITTERLY COLD AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOWED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE COLDER AIR MAY MAKE
A BRIEF PUSH WWD OVER GLORIETA PASS AND PERHAPS THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON THIS MORNING. AS WEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE LATE THIS
MORNING...THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A STRONGER PUSH WWD TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
DATE...WITH EVEN COLDER READINGS WEDNESDAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS WILL BREAK THROUGH GLORIETA PASS AND TIJERAS CANYON AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. STRONGER
EAST CANYON WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST WILL KEEP
VENTILATION RATES IN THE POOR CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS WEST OF THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE LEVEL
FOR MID NOVEMBER.

A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE DOME OF
COLD AIR OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT MOST AREAS FRIDAY...WITH
IMPROVING VENTILATION RATES EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE RACING EWD ON THE PACIFIC
JET. SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN COLORADO. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
EXACT PLACEMENT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING...HOWEVER...REGARDING A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES THAT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING W-E THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 5 TO 10
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CDFNT HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE
SOUTHEAST BORDER OF NM AT 0530Z. PEAK GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT INVOF THE BOUNDARY BUT STILL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
POSSIBLE AS BRUNT OF PRESSURE RISES PUSHES INTO TX. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH 12Z. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST NM/COLORADO
BORDER AS WELL AS AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AS LATEST RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHEAST
WIND TO DEVELOP AT KSAF AND INTO THE ABQ METRO...THOUGH NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. WIND COULD ACTUALLY BE NORTH AT KABQ PRIOR TO
12Z FOR A COUPLE OF HRS IF IT BREAKS THROUGH AT KSAF FIRST.
STRONGER EAST WIND POSSIBLE IN 24 HRS/TUESDAY NIGHT/ AS THE COLD
AIR IN THE PLAINS IS REINFORCED. OTHERWISE VFR WEST OF THE RGV.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 54 23 52 24 / 0 0 5 10
CUBA............................ 58 30 54 26 / 0 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 62 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 61 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 64 30 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 32 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 50 20 48 18 / 0 5 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 34 49 28 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 52 27 41 21 / 0 0 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 23 44 20 / 5 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 40 19 37 15 / 5 5 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 16 41 11 / 5 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 53 23 46 22 / 5 5 5 10
MORA............................ 52 23 40 18 / 0 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 60 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 54 31 46 25 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 30 49 25 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 36 56 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 39 59 33 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 36 60 30 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 38 58 33 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 37 62 30 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 39 58 34 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 68 40 65 34 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 32 53 26 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 60 33 55 25 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 22 46 14 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 24 37 17 / 0 0 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 33 53 27 / 0 0 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 36 56 30 / 0 0 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 57 32 48 28 / 0 0 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 34 12 25 8 / 5 5 5 20
RATON........................... 40 15 28 11 / 5 5 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 45 16 31 11 / 5 5 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 20 34 15 / 0 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 33 7 22 7 / 5 5 10 10
ROY............................. 37 15 26 11 / 5 5 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 45 21 31 16 / 5 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 22 34 17 / 0 5 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 18 30 15 / 5 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 42 19 31 16 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 44 20 32 17 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 48 24 36 20 / 0 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 53 30 42 26 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 54 28 42 25 / 0 0 5 5
ELK............................. 57 31 45 26 / 0 0 5 10

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ533>537.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ538>540.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ538-539.

SHY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1052 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...646 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014...
.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY WAS JUST EXPANDED TO INCLUDE QUAY...CURRY...AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. ARCTIC FRONT IS PLUNGING IN AT A HIGH VELOCITY
WITH BLOWING DUST BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM.
TUCUMCARI IS ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO 47 MPH. WILL KEEP THE END
TIME THE SAME AS THE OTHER WIND ADVISORY SEGMENT...11 PM.
TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THOUGH THE DUST WILL
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD AIR WILL BE HERE TO STAY ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY NOT BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS
PICKED UP QUITE A BIT OF DUST IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS WINDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. SINCE THE ARCTIC AIR IS
SHALLOW...THERE IS CONCERN THAT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA...BUT COULD SQUIRT THOUGH THE GAPS INTO
RATON AS WELL AS MOVE INTO CLAYTON. WILL ISSUE A SHORT-FUSED WIND
ADVISORY WITH DUST IMPACTS THROUGH 06Z. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP NEAR 1
MILE.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER TEMPS REMAIN ON TAP BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
UPGRADED THE FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCHES TO FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS RESPECTIVELY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...SO THERE SHOULD BE NO QUESTION THAT MUCH OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SEE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.

THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE AIR WILL ALLOW IT TO MIX BACK OUT TO SOME
DEGREE ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE COLD AIR WILL BUILD
BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BUT THESE AREAS WILL FINALLY SEE
SOME RELIEF ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERN AREAS WILL FEEL LITTLE
EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. MEANWHILE...MORE THAN 80 HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM.

A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING MUCH MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS...SO HAVE LEFT SOME LOW GRADE POPS IN THE FORECAST. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS THOUGH.

THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER SHOWING A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. RATHER...IT HAS COME IN LINE WITH
THE GFS...SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THOUGH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPS BACK TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCALIZED CRITICAL STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT IS ON
NEW MEXICO/S DOORSTEP AND WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A RIBBON OF
STRONG WIND WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND TRY TO WASH UP TO THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN 20 TO 25
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PUSH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME UP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE WEST WITH NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AREAS. WIND SPEEDS WONT BE
QUITE A BREEZY COMPARED TO TODAY BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WILL SEE SOME MODERATE BREEZES. THEREFORE...VENTILATION RATES
WILL BE DECENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LITTLE
MORE MARGINAL WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE ANOTHER RESURGENCE AND TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MTN GAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COOLER AND LOWER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL SPIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT NOT NEARLY AS
COLD COMPARED TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EVEN MORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST. VENTILATION RATES WILL REMAIN
POOR ACROSS THE EAST AND MUCH BETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL
AREAS. THIS IS PRIMARILY A DRY FRONTAL OR SYSTEM PASSAGE SO NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SORT OF WETTING PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER WEST. THIS IS WHEN VENTILATION WILL
BE MUCH LESS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT BETTER ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS DUE TO HIGHER WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
LOOK TO BE NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE READINGS.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON FRIDAY AS AN OVERALL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW TAKES OVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST BUT BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR. PERHAPS SOME MEASURABLE DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS COME INTO MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN/GFS MODELS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE LEVELS.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ533>537.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ527-528-530-531-534>536.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ538-539.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

105 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MADE ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO GRIDS...TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH BOUNCY
TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTMENTS ARE RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MILDER
FORECAST MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DVLG DEEP TROF SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD THRU THE PD. MEANWHILE...CLSD
UPR LOW DRFTS OFF THE EAST CST INCRSG THE LL MOISTURE...ESP OVER
THE SE ZONES. FOR TUE...RDG PRETTY MUCH HOLDS FAST BUT SLOWLY BRKS
DWON FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE ADVANCING TROF. SFC FNT STILL WELL
OF TO THE WEST AND DOES NOT ADVANCE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFT 12Z
WED. AHD OF THE FNT...SOME LL MOISTURE FROM THE CSTL LOW IS PULLED
NWRD INTO THE AREA...ESP OVER NEPA BRING CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE TUE NGT.

MODEL GUID IN RSNBL AGREEMENT AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
20S BY THU MRNG...AND ONLY INTO THE 30S MOST PLACE ON THU AFTN...A
GOOD 5 DEGREES BLO NRML FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS FROM KAVP AND KBGM. WHILE SOME
LOWER RESTRICTIONS HAVE FORMED DOWN NEAR THE DELMARVA, WITH A
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IT APPEARS THESE SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS.

MOST TERMINALS SSE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING GENERALLY 4-8 KTS...BECOMING
S 8-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...NOTABLE EXCEPTION AND DEVELOPING
LLWS FOR KSYR- KRME...WITH LOCALIZED EFFECTS KEEPING ESE WIND 5-7
KTS OVERNIGHT VERSUS LOW LEVEL JET FROM SSW 40-45 KTS AROUND 1500
TO 2000 FEET AGL. KELM ALSO TO EXPERIENCE LLWS OVERNIGHT. SEE TAFS
FOR SPECIFICS/TIMING. LLWS GOES AWAY BY 13Z...AND SURFACE WIND
KSYR- KRME WILL BE SE 8-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS DUE TO MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING FRONT.

WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA WED MRNG AS COLD FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU/FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN ESPECIALLY KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1146 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES.
LOCAL LAKE SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH IFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

410 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ON VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE LAST DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST STILL DOMINATES. THIS WILL GIVE US ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND EVEN WARMER SOUTHERLY BREEZES THAT WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THEIR
SIGNIFICANT COLD BIAS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS
WARM UP TODAY. STILL...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...AND HAVE
NOT BEEN MIXING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOWN WHICH IS WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MODEL IS CORRECT IN SHOWING THIS TO
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY WITH MIXING...BUT MORE SO OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WILL AGAIN LOWER THE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE GENEROUS NAM AND GFS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHIFTING THE VERY DRY AIR MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS ALONG
WITH DRIER FUEL MOISTURE...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG.
THUS...WILL ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN COORDINATION WITH
STATE AGENCIES. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT AS RED
FLAG NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LONG ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND MUCH OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MOISTURE INFLOW ON THE MODEST SIDE...WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WE EXPECT BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN...THE REALLY
COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL SEE RAPID PRESSURE RISES UNDER
INFLUENCE OF A CONTINENTAL SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALL
THE WAY OVER IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE A NON EVENT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE TRAJECTORIES IN THE
LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT DROPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES REALLY PLUMMET BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHEN WE GET -14C AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALSO REINFORCE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARDS AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIRMASS NEARS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER 30S WILL BE A
STRETCH ANYWHERE IN THE CWA FRIDAY. MIDWEEK MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH CPC GIVING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE 500 MB TROF IN THE EAST...WE REMAIN MOSTLY IN BOARD CYCLONIC
500 MB FLOW. THE 12Z ECWMF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION OF LATE...IN THAT THE DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOT
AS SHARP...AND LESS EFFICIENT IN PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH...FOR
A LONGER PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...TRIED TO STAY MORE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOLDING MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LONGER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 850
MBS.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN INCREASING POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL PLAY A SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE. REINFORCING COLD
AIR COMES OUR WAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AGAIN HOLD ONTO
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND POPS LONGER THAN GUIDANCE BUT LOWER DEW
POINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY HELP BREAK UP THOSE CLOUDS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO CHANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. DECOUPLING OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AT CRW...CKB AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE AT HTS...COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 1500 FT AGL...WILL BRING LLWS TIL 12Z AT THOSE TAF SITES. THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL WEAKEN BY 12Z...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH A CKB-CRW LINE BY 06Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS JUST REACHING
THE OHIO AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE LEFT MVFR OUT OF TAFS THIS PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 11/11/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FRONT PASSING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

359 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ON VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. DECOUPLING OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AT CRW...CKB AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE AT HTS...COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 1500 FT AGL...WILL BRING LLWS TIL 12Z AT THOSE TAF SITES. THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL WEAKEN BY 12Z...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH A CKB-CRW LINE BY 06Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS JUST REACHING
THE OHIO AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE LEFT MVFR OUT OF TAFS THIS PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FRONT PASSING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

131 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIN CIRRUS ALL THERE IS OVER THE AREA...AND TEMPS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS AT YOUR LOCATION. MOST
WRN/CENTRAL SITES RUNNING IN THE M-U40S...BUT CALM AIR OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY FROM KSEG SOUTHWARD HALPING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
MAXIMIZE AND TEMPS IN THE M-U30S. EXPECT THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO
BE MUCH LIKE THIS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT AND SLOW DROP IN TEMPS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT A
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. THE
BREEZIEST AND WARMEST CONDS RELATIVE TO NORMAL SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BENEATH SFC RIDGE AXIS.

WILL MAINTAIN POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...AS SPRAWLING
1050MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS.
MEAN RIDGING ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO NWRN NOAM WILL HELP
SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU THRU
MON AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE ERN U.S. THE COLD
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NW MTNS AND WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS...THERE
ARE DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THAT
ADDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BROADER PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE THU NGT AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAMES.

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BREEZY NIGHT OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND CLEAR SKIES. FAR EASTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...AS
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO THE EAST...AND TEMPS ARE OVER 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ACROSS THE WEST.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING. MAINLY SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WED. HARD TO SEE MUCH MOISTURE. DID PUT A SHOWER IN
AT BFD LATE.

LLWS IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL LAYER INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS...ABOVE
THE GENERALLY LIGHT SSE SFC FLOW. SEEING THIS ON OUR VAD WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST.

THU...PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS KBFD.

SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1253 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR AND TRANQUIL CONDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING UNDER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. IR LOOP AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATE
THERE WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE
NORTH...AS WAA ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT A
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. THE
BREEZIEST AND WARMEST CONDS RELATIVE TO NORMAL SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BENEATH SFC RIDGE AXIS.

WILL MAINTAIN POPS NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BREEZY NIGHT OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND CLEAR SKIES. FAR EASTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...AS
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO THE EAST...AND TEMPS ARE OVER 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ACROSS THE WEST.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING. MAINLY SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WED. HARD TO SEE MUCH MOISTURE. DID PUT A SHOWER IN
AT BFD LATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST.

THU...PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS KBFD.

SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1112 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. WILL MAKE THE
APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NPW WHICH REMAINS FOR THE FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

UPDATE...
GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST DATA AVAILABLE...HAVE ELECTED
TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE SUBSTANTIVE AMOUNTS OF DUST ARE BEING
LIFTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...THAT AREA HAS BEEN A FAIR BIT DRIER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...HERE IN
LUBBOCK...MOST OF THE DUST SHOULD HAVE ORIGINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE OVERLY DRAMATIC THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE A HAZE IN THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
D4 DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERIST...VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO NEAR 1
MILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE MESONET
REPORTS THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
MIXING...SUSPECT HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOUTH PLAINS. IF YOU MOW YOUR LAWN
TONIGHT...YOU MAY NOT HAVE TO SWEEP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 20 41 18 30 17 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 21 39 19 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 22 40 20 30 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 28 43 22 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 27 42 22 33 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 31 45 24 36 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 30 45 24 34 22 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 29 42 21 35 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 30 43 22 33 23 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 33 44 26 36 24 / 0 0 0 0 0

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-037>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>042.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>036-039>042.

26/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1108 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...
The strong cold front was just entering Haskell and Throckmorton
counties late this evening. Winds north of the front have been
stronger than model guidance this evening, with gusts 40 to 45 KT
across northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma. Models do show
winds weakening behind the front as it treks farther south across
the area overnight but based on latest trends, think the winds
will remain a bit stronger than guidance across northern counties
for at least several hours behind the front. Winds were increased
across northern sections this update and decided to issue a wind
advisory for all of the Big Country until 12Z Tuesday.

The front will arrive at Abilene around midnight, San Angelo by
2 AM and the I-10 corridor around 5 AM.

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A strong cold front will reach KABI and KSJT between 06z and 07z and
the southern sites between 08z and 10z. Expect north winds of 15 to
25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots possible, as the front moves
through. Winds will gradually decrease by mid morning, eventually
decreasing to near 10 knots by late afternoon. Patchy stratus will
be possible at the southern sites along the front, but confidence is
not high enough to include a mention of MVFR ceilings in the TAF`s.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

Daniels

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Veterans Day)

MUCH colder temperatures for tomorrow as an Arctic blast moves
through tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night)

Plan for temperatures overnight Tuesday night to fall into mainly
the 22 to 30 range across West Central Texas.

(Wednesday)

Expect much colder than normal temperatures Wednesday.

(Wednesday night)

Freezing temperatures look likely again around sunrise Thursday
morning.

(Thursday)

(Thursday night through Friday night)

(Saturday through Monday)

Huber

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 37 48 24 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 5
San Angelo 41 52 25 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 5
Junction 47 54 31 50 29 / 0 0 0 5 5

WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...Shackelford...
Taylor...Throckmorton.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1101 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY AT OR GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BRING
SOME SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (1 INCH
OR LESS) OVERNIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE THE VISIBILITY DROP TO
AROUND 1 MILE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF A DOUGLAS TO RAWLINS LINE BY
DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 522 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES MAINLY ABOVE 6000FT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST LOWS WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF SNOWFALL FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING SINCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ONLY
BEEN AROUND ONE INCH WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SEEM TO OCCUR
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG PORTIONS OF I80...BUT EVEN THIS SNOWFALL WAS
TOO BRIEF TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...ROADS WILL
REMAIN ICY INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN
THE MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER...INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA AND IDAHO TODAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
SOUTHWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN...MOVING INTO
WYOMING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH
THE MIDLEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. CURRENTLY EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY. MAY NEED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG AND NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THE
SNOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION OF TIME TO BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE SINCE A 30:1 TO 40:1 RATIO MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COMPARED TO 15 OR 20:1.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. THE WARMEST AREA WILL
LIKELY BE SW CARBON COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 DEGREES.
FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT HIGHS TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS EASTERN WYOMING...AND
SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE 1051 MB SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER WYOMING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 20 BELOW
TO BELOW ZERO. WITH SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA...DID NOT GO QUITE
THAT LOW WITH LOWS NEAR 10 BELOW TO 5 BELOW ZERO NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN SINCE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A
TIME AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 30 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND THE LARAMIE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SHORTLY.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT WILL SETTLED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT FRIGID WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR ZERO. EVEN SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY WILL ONLY SEE
TEMPS NEAR 20 DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 15 BELOW TO 5 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

AFTER A COLD START ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SE WYOMING AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE...WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL RELATIVE WARMUP BY FRIDAY WHEN WE SEE THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...THIS WOULD HELP BUCKLE THE
ARCTIC FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOST AREAS. THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF GENERATE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING BELOW
7000 FT MSL COULD GET INTO THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S MOST SPOTS. BY SATURDAY WE SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED 170 KT UPPER JETMAX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO AND
WESTERN WYOMING. WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT PAN OUT SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP
AND JET PLACEMENT. LATER FORECASTS TOWARD MIDWEEK WILL BE ABLE TO
REFINE SPECIFIC SNOW FORECAST AND ACCUMULATIONS AS WE GET A BETTER
FEEL ON HOW THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL TREND. STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BREAKING UP AND WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z OR SO.
AFTER 12Z...WE ARE LOOKING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD AFFECT THE
RWL TAF SITE TOWARDS 12Z AND THE REST OF THE WYOMING TAF SITES BY
18Z. THE HRRR IS SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITH THIS BAND OF
SNOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BEING ABOVE 1KFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE CEILINGS TO BECOME IFR. WE ARE PLAYING THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 12Z...SINCE THE HRRR IS TENDING TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE CEILINGS AT THIS CURRENT HOUR.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST MON NOV 10 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. VERY COLD
WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1045 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP NICELY FOR A COLDER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS HEADING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LARGE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN...
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WE SEE A NEGATIVE PHASE ONGOING WITH THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. BOTH A POSITIVE PNA INDEX AND NEGATIVE NAO PHASE
INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAKS TO REACH THE
CONUS...AND THIS IS HAPPENING NOW.

IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A COLD AND
DEEP TROUGH IS EVOLVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES...AND THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST WILL EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CERTAINLY WILL NOT
SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS...BUT WE WILL SEE THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY WITH A COOL DOWN FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

A LARGE SPIN/CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CAN BE SEEN
PULLING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING A WEAK AREA OF UPPER
RIDGING TO TAKE CONTROL.

THEREFORE...UNTIL LATER THURSDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
ITS ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING AT OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS SEEING NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE QUICKLY SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.

REST OF TODAY...11/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROP. THE ONLY MOISTURE IS IN THE VERY HIGHEST
LEVELS ABOVE 300MB ASSOCIATED WITH JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. A FEW PASSING PATCHES OF TRANSPARENT CIRRUS MAY INVADE THE
SKY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. A
COMBINATION OF THE GRADIENT WIND FORM THE N/NW AND LOCALIZED
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
DRYNESS OF THE OVERLYING ATMOSPHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH OF
I-4...AND IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 FURTHER SOUTH.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT MID NOVEMBER DAY SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS A WEAK
IMPULSE/SHORTWAVE RIDES THE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO
WORRIES WITH THIS IMPULSE. EVEN WITH ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TO DRY
THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE TROP TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 0%. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WE SHOULD
SEE WOULD BE PERIODS OF CIRRUS TO DIM THE SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MOST CIRRUS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN HERE MOST OF THE TIME...THE SUN
SHOULD STILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH IT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 70S NORTH...TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
LOWER 80S INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A GREAT
REST OF YOUR TUESDAY EVERYBODY! GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER IF YOU
CAN.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SYNOPTIC
WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS NOTED IN MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS BETWEEN H85 AND H5...SO AS A RESULT WE EXPECT A RAIN FREE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD...THANKS TO RIGHT REAR QUAD FORCING FROM A 110+ KNOT UPPER
JET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY...AND IN ALL LOCALES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
RAIN FREE WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MILD WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BRING ELEVATED NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 79 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 78 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 77 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 76 63 78 63 / 0 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
LONG TERM...JELSEMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

554 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE EAST PART EARLY...BUT HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP DIMINISH ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS. THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO STILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CSRA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WILL FAVOR MAINTAINING CONTINUED AND RELOADED
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL
AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE OUR WAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY. FORECAST
MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

MUCH OF THE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS
DISSIPATED. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE FROM THE OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE HRRR HINTS
THAT MORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND OGB
THIS MORNING SO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP. HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP DIMINISH ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR MASS WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

522 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS HELPED SUPPORT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING. A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER
WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS SO WE FORECASTED CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS INSTEAD OF IFR. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP
DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR MASS WITH AN INCREASE IN
WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

616 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AT 12Z...COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A LINE FROM KPSN...TO NEAR KGGG...TO
NEAR NASHVILLE AR. FRONT IS MAKING MUCH FASTER PROGRESS SEWD THAN
MOST OF THE MODELS HAD PREDICTED. MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHWRS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM W TO E LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER 12/00Z BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. /09/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BIG CHANGES COMING TODAY IN THE FORM OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH
AS OF 08Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A MLC...DFW...SJT LINE. THIS FRONT IS
MOVING SE CLOSE TO 35KTS AND IS QUICKLY OUTRUNNING ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM PROGS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
POST FRONTAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS PLUS AND FOR THIS REASON...
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD
FOR TODAY. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DROP
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OUACHITAS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
BOUNDARY DOWN A LITTLE AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE BUT FOR GRID
PURPOSES...WENT WITH THE HRRR IN THE FIRST 12HRS OF THE FORECAST
WHICH IS A MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE FASTER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL MET/MAV MOS. KEPT POP MENTION
TODAY UNTOUCHED AS THE BETTER COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF TODAY AS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER ASSUMING A
BROKEN LINE CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING LZK/DFW...PRELIMS TO
FOLLOW...13.

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>004-010.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

653 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A NOTABLE BAROCLINIC LEAF
WAS LIFTING NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL DIV OVER WI
AND UPPER MI ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WAS ALSO
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVING
INTO THE AREA...THE SNOW COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS INCREASED FROM WI
INTO THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. ACROSS THE E HALF THE CWA...THE DRY
SLOT LINGERED WITH SOME POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

TODAY...AS THE IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA THE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONV AND 850-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. ANY LEFTOVER FZDZ/DZ OVER THE
SOUTH SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO SNOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND 0.4 TO 0.6
INCH...GREATEST NE...ALONG WITH SLR VALUES IN THE 10/1 TO 14/1 RANGE
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 4 G/KG AVAILABLE IN
THE 295K-300K LAYER. GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WHERE STRONG NE
UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AND FROM IWD TO
ROCKLAND. AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL FROM -8C TO -12C...LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO NRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FROM NRN LAKE HURON AT 00Z/WED
THROUGH ERN ONTARIO NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NNW.
ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EVENING AS
THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV DYNAMICS LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NE...THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AND 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -14C WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW. SO...WINTER STORM HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE N CNTRL.
EVEN WITHOUT THE LARGER SCALE LIFT...INVERSION HEIGHTS AOA 10K FT
WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS AROUND
10K FT OCNLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND N CNTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

SFC AND 500MB LOW CENTERS WILL BE NE OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED...BUT
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE STRETCHED BACK ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY PURELY SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
MORNING...BUT LES WILL BE IN FULL SWING IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -16C...MAKING FOR
LAKE-850MB DELTA T VALUES OF AROUND 18C WITH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF OVER 10KFT AT 12Z. CONDITIONS STAY FAIRLY
STEADY STATE FOR LES THROUGH MUCH OF WED...WITH MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS MOVING IN LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING GREATER MOISTURE AND A INCREASE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 13KFT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NNW BEHIND THE
SECONDARY TROUGH WED EVENING INTO THU. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED WITH HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE...BUT
FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY 8 INCHES TO A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE NW FAVORED
SNOWBELTS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...HIGHEST NEAR IRONWOOD AND E OF
MARQUETTE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS THAT THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A RIBBON OF DRY AIR SLOWLY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WHILE MOISTENING ON WED...WHICH IF IT
OCCURS WOULD KNOCK AMOUNTS DOWN. DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NNW WIND
SNOWBELTS THU INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN
FROM THE W.

FORECAST QUIETS DOWN FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. UNCERTAIN HOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON PLAYS OUT EXACTLY...BUT
AT LEAST LES SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
REGION. MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VLIFR MORE LIKELY AT SAW
WITH THE GUSTY NNE WIND THAT WILL ACCENTUATE THE BLSN THERE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE LOW PRES SHIFTS TO THE E...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE LATE TODAY. BUT IFR/LIFR WEATHER WILL STILL BE THE RULE IN
THE LINGERING CYCLONIC...MOIST NNW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING AND
NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN GALES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD NRLY BY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU
THROUGH SAT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-013-
014-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ010>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ246-247-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

537 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

EXPECT PERIODS OF LGT SN EARLY THIS MRNG TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVIER
SN TOWARD 12Z AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE APRCHS UPR MI FM THE SW. THE
BEST CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE RELATIVE LULL
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WL BE AT THE MORE EXPOSED SAW
LOCATION WITH A MORE FAVORABLE...GUSTY UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LIFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AREA
OF HEAVIER SN AND EVEN TO VLIFR AT SAW WITH THE GUSTY NNE WIND THAT
WL ACCENTUATE THE BLSN THERE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE LO PRES SHIFTS TO
THE E...CONDITIONS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TODAY. BUT IFR/LIFR WX WL
STILL BE THE RULE IN THE LINGERING CYC...MOIST NNW FLOW LEFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-013-
014-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ010>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ246-247-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

526 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SE WI TONIGHT AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD NRLY BY LATE TUE INTO TUE EVENING. GUSTY N TO
NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU THROUGH SAT
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-013-
014-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ010>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ246-247-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

317 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A REINFORCING BATCH OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY MAKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE COLDEST OF
THE CURRENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH NOTABLE FORCING
ALOFT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT/S SPINNING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MT AND NORTHWEST ND ON 10 UTC WATER VAPOR IMAGES. SNOW FLAKES HAVE
INDEED BEEN FINE-GRAINED WITH HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS...BUT THE
AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO WRING MUCH MOISTURE OUT OF IT ANYMORE...AND
SO LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW /AS EXPECTED/.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS /AND EVEN THE
MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS/ ALL SUGGEST THE LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER ABOUT 12 UTC WHEN THE
QG-FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. WE CANCELLED THE REST OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST RELEASE SINCE THE EVENT IS
WINDING DOWN. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL A BIT DURING THE
DAY IN PLACES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LOCALLY ELEVATED AT JUDITH GAP AND HARLOWTON IN THIS PATTERN
AND SO WE CONTINUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THERE. WE
DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN MANY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THEY WON/T AMOUNT TO MUCH.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP WITH SUNSET AND WITH SOME
FRESH SNOW COVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 1047
MB OR MORE...LOWS IN THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND
A FEW -20 F LOWS ARE LIKELY IN SOME VALLEYS. WE UNDERCUT MOS A BIT
IN SPOTS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE FORECAST MIGHT NOT BE QUITE
COLD ENOUGH IN SPOTS. BILLINGS AND LIVINGSTON MAY BOTH VERY EASILY
SET DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR TWO CALENDAR DAYS AS THE RECORDS FOR THE
11TH ARE VERY ACHIEVABLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER
11TH ARE -5 AT BILLINGS /SET IN 1940/ AND -8 AT LIVINGSTON /SET IN
2000/ AND RECORD LOWS FOR THE 12TH ARE -11 AT BILLINGS /FROM 1986/
AND -19 AT LIVINGSTON /SET IN 1959/.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK MIXING BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RESULT IN EVEN
COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. WELL-SHELTERED LOCALES
THAT DROP WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT MAY STAY BELOW ZERO ALL DAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS THAT WILL BE THEIR COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK WITH LOWS DOWN IN
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED RANGE PROGGS CERTAINLY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
REGARDS TO HOW FAST OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MUCH WARMER SCENARIOS.
I HAVE GENERALLY CHOSEN TO USE A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO HAVE A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AS SUCH I HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THEN IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS
OUT OF SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THERE IS A GOOD TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
RIGHT INTO OUR SW MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHICS WILL AID SNOW PRODUCTION
OVER WEST FACING SLOPES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE/OVERRUNNING OVER THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING
BILLINGS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

ONCE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION THE 500MB HEIGHTS TRY
TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS THE COOLER VERSION KEEPING
A HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SEEMS LIKE A
SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE CURRENT OPEN DOOR OF COLD
AIR. SO I DID WEIGHT THE ECMWF A LITTLE HEAVIER ON THE BLEND OF
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BT

.AVIATION...

LOCALIZED LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSHR THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL HUG THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH 16Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N TO S BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUD
DECKS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. BT

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 008 911/004 908/016 004/018 902/016 902/033 013/036
4/J 10/B 00/U 03/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
LVM 005 919/001 910/022 008/023 001/017 003/034 023/038
6/J 10/U 01/U 33/S 40/B 00/U 01/B
HDN 008 907/007 911/020 003/020 001/016 901/032 011/035
4/J 10/B 00/U 02/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
MLS 007 908/009 911/013 904/016 901/012 902/028 008/026
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 006 908/010 913/017 901/021 002/013 903/029 008/030
4/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 30/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 007 908/009 915/010 907/014 901/009 001/023 008/022
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/U 10/B 00/N 00/B
SHR 005 913/004 916/019 003/028 003/015 905/032 011/036
8/S 10/U 00/U 02/S 41/B 00/U 00/U

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
28-63.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

855 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST STILL DOMINATES. THIS WILL GIVE US ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND EVEN WARMER SOUTHERLY BREEZES THAT WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THEIR
SIGNIFICANT COLD BIAS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS
WARM UP TODAY. STILL...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...AND HAVE
NOT BEEN MIXING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOWN WHICH IS WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. BELIEVE THE RAP MODEL IS CORRECT IN SHOWING THIS TO
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY WITH MIXING...BUT MORE SO OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WILL AGAIN LOWER THE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE GENEROUS NAM AND GFS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHIFTING THE VERY DRY AIR MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS ALONG
WITH DRIER FUEL MOISTURE...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG.
THUS...WILL ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN COORDINATION WITH
STATE AGENCIES. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT AS RED
FLAG NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CRW VWP ALREADY SHOWING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION WEAKENING...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR THRU MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET AND LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 02Z...A CKB-CRW LINE BY 05Z...AND
THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS 2000-3000 FEET WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AFFECTING WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 10Z...BUT SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
END AS THE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY UP TO 2
HOURS...AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS ELEVATION CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR.

UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AFTER 09Z...NO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

539 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CRW VWP ALREADY SHOWING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION WEAKENING...SO WILL DROP LLWS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STILL DOMINATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR VFR MOST CLEAR THRU MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET AND LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 02Z...A CKB-CRW LINE BY 05Z...AND
THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS 2000-3000 FEET WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AFFECTING WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 10Z...BUT SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
END AS THE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY UP TO 2
HOURS...AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS ELEVATION CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AFTER 09Z...NO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

245 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP NICELY FOR A COLDER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LARGE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN...
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WE SEE A NEGATIVE PHASE ONGOING WITH THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. BOTH A POSITIVE PNA INDEX AND NEGATIVE NAO PHASE
INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAKS TO REACH THE
CONUS...AND THIS IS HAPPENING NOW.

IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A COLD AND
DEEP TROUGH IS EVOLVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES...AND THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST WILL EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CERTAINLY WILL NOT
SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS AIRMASS...BUT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN
FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

A LARGE SPIN/CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CAN BE SEEN
PULLING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING A WEAK AREA OF
UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE CONTROL.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS SEEING NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE QUICKLY BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...11/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROP. THE ONLY MOISTURE IS IN THE
VERY HIGHEST LEVELS ABOVE 300MB ASSOCIATED WITH JET ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FEW PASSING PATCHES OF TRANSPARENT CIRRUS MAY
INVADE THE SKY FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
SPOTS. A COMBINATION OF THE GRADIENT WIND FORM THE N/NW AND
LOCALIZED SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING IS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE. THESE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NO CHANCE
OF RAIN.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT MID NOVEMBER DAY SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS A WEAK
IMPULSE/SHORTWAVE RIDES THE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO
WORRIES WITH THIS IMPULSE. EVEN WITH ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TO DRY TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 0%. THE ONLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WE SHOULD SEE WOULD BE PERIODS OF CIRRUS TO
DIM THE SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE AND CONTINUED
FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WOULD EXPECT
THE MOST CIRRUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN HERE
MOST OF THE TIME...THE SUN SHOULD STILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH IT. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70S NORTH...TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND LOWER 80S INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR TUESDAY EVERYBODY! GET OUT
AND ENJOY THE WEATHER IF YOU CAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE 20%
POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD
30-40% CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE...COOLER CONDITIONS...
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW PATCHES OF
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR KLAL...AND KPGD...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT OR EXTENDED RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY MORNING
FOR DISSIPATES QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.MARINE...
BRIEF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS GUSTY N/NW WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW 15
KTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING ELEVATED NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. NO MAJOR MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND
BE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE HOURS OF SUB 35
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...AND ERC VALUES ARE BELOW 27. THEREFORE...NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MAKES A RAIN
FREE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY
FOG PRONE AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS AROUND DAWN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 79 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 58 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 57 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 56 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 47 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 78 64 78 / 0 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...JELSEMA/MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

238 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

QUITE THE LATE AUTUMN...ACTUALLY MORE EARLY WINTER...WEATHER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WELL-DEFINED NOW OPEN UPPER WAVE
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS ROTATING AROUND A
MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE AND WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER CIRCULATION IN
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE EXISTS IMPRESSIVELY STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AS SEEN BY LAST
EVES RAOBS /FOR EXAMPLE 30C 850MB COOLING IN JUST 12H AT LBF/. THIS
HAS KEPT THE 1001MB SURFACE LOW FROM FILLING MUCH AND HELPED TO
DRIVE A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
MID-MORNING...BRINGING PREDAWN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S /EVEN 60 AT
MDW/ QUICKLY TO THE 30S FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
AT 30 MPH OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND TO SOME
DEGREE IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA IT WILL BRING
FOCUSED LIFT AND SATURATION...BUT ALSO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ORIENT
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDED SNOW TO OUR
WEST FOR HOURS. IR TRENDS ARE ALREADY INDICATING THICKENING AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER NORTHERN IL AND MODELS
SHOW A TEMPORARY BUT FAIRLY STRONG DIRECT FRONTAL CIRCULATION BY MID
TO LATE MORNING OVER THE AREA. HAVE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH
SUPPORTIVE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO BUMP UP POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO MAINLY
OUTRACE PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING BUT RAIN THIS MORNING...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTH CENTRAL IL WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF EARLIER
COOL ADVECTION MAY BRING A MIX WITH A WET SNOW. DUE TO HOW THE F-GEN
SETS UP...RAP AND NAM PROFILES ACTUALLY SUGGEST SOME CHANCES FOR ICE
PELLETS WITH A DEEP ENOUGH COOL LAYER AND SREF P-TYPE PROBS ALSO
HINT AT THIS...WHICH NORMALLY ONE WOULD NOT SEE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR THAT THOUGH WITH THIS SOMEWHAT UNIQUE SETUP.
EVEN WITH MORNING PRECIP INTENSITY LOOKING MORE INTENSE THAN
EARLIER...IT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID AND A WARM GROUND WILL
LIKELY MAKE FOR NO ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW MIXES IN. ALSO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WE DO STILL SEE A CHANCE TO GET SOME PATCHY LIGHT SPITS
OF PRECIP...BUT ANY STRONGER FORCING HAS MOVED ON BY THEN...SO
THE MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

SOMETIMES WITH RAIN AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUCH AS TODAY
THERE IS CONCERN OF FREEZING ON ROADS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
UPSTREAM LOCATIONS OF IA...SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN WI. DO NOT SEE
THAT AS A CONCERN HERE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ALL DAY...EVEN WARMER
PAVEMENT TEMPS...AND DRYING OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT WE ACTUALLY WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUPPRESSION IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE
REALLY CLEARING CLOUDS QUICK THIS EVE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OPTIMISTIC
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS. DO THINK THERE WILL BE GREATER CLEARING
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. LOWS SHOULD FALL OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 20S.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
324 AM CST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE COOL AIR WILL KEEP REPLENISHED ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST WINDS SO THE LOW ANGLE SUNSHINE WILL OFFER LIMITED
WARMING. NOT SEEING MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. REALLY PREVENTING ANY TYPE OF WELL-DEVELOPED
CLIPPER. IT DOES APPEAR A LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER PIVOTS AROUND
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS GIVEN
THE ANOMALOUS COLD...AS QUANTIFIED AT 18Z THURSDAY IN THE COOLEST ONE
PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY 00Z ENSEMBLES. SOME PLACES IN THE
NORTHERN CWA MAY NOT REACH 30. IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD TEENS
EVEN INTO THE CHICAGO METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE ON SKY COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT IS VERY LOW.

WITH A FAIRLY BLOCKED PATTERN EXISTING ACROSS ALASKA/NORTHERN
CANADA/GREENLAND AND AMPLE DEEP COLD AIR ON UPSTREAM CANADIAN
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL IS HIGH. THE NEXT JET MAX DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD
BRING PACIFIC MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION. WHILE GFS/EC/GEM ALL ADVERTISE QPF OVER THE REGION...QUITE
A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. IF PRECIPITATION
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
* LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THIS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT. CIGS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2,000 FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LOOKING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH WITH ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CHC SNOW.
MONDAY...VFR.

BMD

.MARINE...
237 PM CST

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEK...GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE
LAKE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
232 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Deepening 1001 mb low pressuer over northern lower MI as cold front
tracks along OH/IN border into nw KY. This was giving blustery
wnw winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph across central IL
this afternoon. Low pressure lifts ne of the Great Lakes region
tonight while strong 1049 mb Canadian high over Alberta ridges
into the Great Plains and noses into IL by dawn Wed. Tight
pressure gradient over central IL this afternoon weakens tonight
and Wed, so expect NW winds to diminish to 8-15 mph this evening
and continues into Wed morning. A large canopy of stratocumulus
clouds with MVFR ceilings covers IL, IA and central and ne MO.
HRRR and RAP models lingers these low clouds over central IL this
evening, though low clouds breaking up during this evening in
southeast IL, and currently happening in southeast MO. Low clouds
will take longer to diminish over ne areas later tonight or during
Wed morning. Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 30s with
Galesburg and Macomb at 32F. These readings are actually closer to
normal lows for mid November. Stayed close to similar MAV/MET cold
lows tonight in the lower 20s over central IL with mid 20s in
southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Pattern over North America settling into a highly amplified stable
regime, which translates to a rather long duration of below normal
temperatures for our area. A Rex block setting up over northwest
Canada into parts of Alaska producing a classic cross Polar flow
through northern and central Canada, draining right into the good
ole U.S. for the remainder of this week and into early next week,
at least. We lose the closed upper high at 500 mb but retain more
of a omega block across western Canada by late in the weekend and
into early next week with a deep upper low just north of Lake
Superior with 500 mb temps around -45 degrees C. This deep and cold
trof more or less is the anchor trof over the hemisphere influencing
the smaller shortwaves and sensible weather over the lower 48. As
we head into the end of this forecast period and beyond, the ECMWF
suggests some relaxation in the pattern as the flow over western
Canada becomes more zonal, which should bottle up the very cold
air over northern Canada as we head into late next week. The flow
over the lower 48 should become more zonal as well which will lead
to a gradual moderating trend as we head into the third week of
November.

As far as specifics are concerned during this period, we should be
rather cold but with very little if any snow through early Saturday
as the large Canadian high slowly settles southeast into the Plains
by Thu and Friday. Several weak vort maxes are forecast to rotate
southeast around the deep and cold trof to our north bringing more
clouds from time to time, but no significant precip other than
flurries. At this time, not seeing enough evidence to add any mention
of flurries as once such shortwave moves thru the area later Thursday
into early Friday. Most of the better lift is forecast to remain
north of the area. Once the wave shifts to our east, a reinforcing
shot of cold air will push across the area with the coldest temps at
850 mb forecast over our area by Friday morning when models indicate
-12 to -14 C will reside over the Midwest. As the center of the cold
shifts off to our east later Saturday, return flow should setup
bringing an increase in clouds ahead of a pair of weather disturbances
bringing the threat for light snow to the area Saturday night into
Sunday.

Models showing some moisture return ahead of the waves for late Sat.
into Sunday, but it appears the more significant precip should remain
along the Gulf Coast into Sunday where the stronger baroclinic zone
will be located ahead of the southern stream wave. The northern stream
wave doesn`t look as significant but we should be able to squeeze out
a tenth of two of moisture, which may lead to some light accumulating
snows for parts of our area Saturday night into Sunday. Once the system
shifts off to our east late in the weekend and into early next week,
another reinforcing push of Canadian air will filter south into our
area keeping temperatures well below normal. The large cold 500 mb rof
will then begin to edge slowly off the east just after this forecast
period with ensembles suggesting another rather vigorous southern
stream shortwave interacting with the low level baroclinic zone over
the Gulf Coast region sending a large area of precip northeast, mainly
along and south of the Ohio River Valley late next week with most
of the ensemble members suggesting no phasing occurring with the
northern stream trof.

So the cold will hang on for a while, but other than the light snowfall
expected later Saturday into Sunday, no major weather systems are
expected to affect the region. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 30s,
where average highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s. Look
for early morning lows in the upper teens north to the lower or middle
20s far southeast, with normal morning lows in the mid to upper 30s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Rain showers have generally passed east of CMI at midday as strong
cold front has tracked east into central IN and western KY and
connected to deepening 1001 mb low pressure over nw lower MI.
Extensive area of MVFR clouds over IL/IA/MO with ceilings
generally 1-2k ft and even as low as 600 ft at BMI. Models linger
MVFR ceilings longer into tonight (at least through this evening) and
trended TAFS forecast this direction. Have MVFR ceilings lifting
to low end VFR during overnight and scatter out during Wed morning.
Breezy WNW winds 13-18 kts with gusts 20-28 kts this afternoon to
diminish to 8-14 kts this evening and be near 10 kts overnight
into Thu morning.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

348 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

A TASTE OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
EVEN TEENS WILL BE THE RULE WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPILLING COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

HRRR AND RAP SHOW POSTFRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SLOWING DOWN A BIT AS
THEY MOVE EAST AND THEREFORE RAIN MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
AREA BY 0Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR EAST FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE GOING DRY EVERYWHERE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. POSTFRONTAL
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALSO THOUGH
AND THIS...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS PREVENTING DECOUPLING...WILL KEEP
THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WERE VERY SIMILAR AND AN AVERAGE WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP COLD
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN DRY. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD COME ON
THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THE AIR WILL BE PRETTY DRY. AT THIS TIME NO MODELS ARE PUTTING ANY
QPF OVER THE AREA AND MOS POPS ARE DRY. THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION
AT THIS TIME IS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND MONITOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE MERITS A
FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MENTION.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS...BUT DID DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THAT FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS BASED ON COLD ADVECTION AND
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE WINTER PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION SHOWING ABSOLUTELY NO SIGNS OF RELENTING
OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TO START THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. REINFORCING
BLAST OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WITH THE POLAR JET. MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT KEEPING THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY MINIMAL
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT GULF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
NORTH. WITH THAT BEING SAID...FORCING ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL A BIT EARLY IN THE
PROCESS...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PINWHEEL INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
IN RESPONSE AND THE RENEWED AND COLDER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
POTENTIAL THAT TEMPS HOLD IN THE 20S BY NEXT TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO END IN SIGHT TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 341 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

2035Z UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD CONDITION. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS FRONT PASSES THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. WINDS GO WEST/NORTHWEST
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25KTS.
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED KHUF AND KLAF AND SHOULD DO LIKEWISE
AT KBMG AND KIND SOMETIME BETWEEN 1800 AND 1900Z. EXPECT A FEW
HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DIPPING TO
800-1000FT.

LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH
FOCUS SHIFTING TO LINGERING MVFR STRATUS AND WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT
AS MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS INDICATING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CEILINGS AT 1500-2000FT PERSISTING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND
20KTS...GRADUALLY DROPPING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY SCATTER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH SCT CU AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THEREAFTER. W/NW WINDS AROUND 10KTS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

215 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Strong cold front moved through the area today, bringing some light
rain/drizzle to the region. A particularly cold air mass is spilling
into the region behind the front. Any lingering areas of rain should
be exiting the area by 00Z Wednesday so will leave tonight`s
forecast dry. This dry weather will continue through the end of the
week.

Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region
tonight with cold air advection in full force. A strong upper level
closed low over eastern Montana and western North Dakota this
morning will move east toward the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday
morning and then eventually make its way into eastern Canada. As
this happens, a trough dive south into the eastern third of the
nation, which will allow for the cold air to infiltrate the region.

Therefore, the main challenges in the short term will be cloud cover
(at least for tonight into tomorrow) and temperatures. Will be
watching the clearing line closely to see if it indeed will keep
tracking eastward across the CWA this evening. Model time heights
and soundings indicate some lingering low level moisture, so this
will have to be watched. The RUC tries to clear out the southwestern
parts of our CWA early this evening, but later in the evening, it
could cloud back up. After some coordination with neighboring
offices, will probably have to go a bit more pessimistic with cloud
cover at least this evening. It appears as though the clouds should
break up by tomorrow morning.

Strong cold air advection will continue on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. So, despite some sunshine, highs will only be in the upper
30s to lower 40s with a 10 to 15 mph wind, as H85 temps plummet
below zero by 00Z Thursday. Highs will be even lower on Thursday and
only be in the 30s. This will be a very dry airmass as well, with
dewpoints going down into the teens by Thursday. By Thursday night,
the center of the sfc high should be positioned just to our west
which should set the stage for one of our coldest nights this week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Focus will be on persistent colder than normal temperatures, and
the chance of light wintry precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday. Having watched the models since Saturday, the GFS has been
the more consistent model in general terms with the pattern
evolution, more in line with previous ensemble mean solutions.
Meanwhile the ECMWF, especially after evaluating the 12z version
continues to exhibit more run to run inconsistency. Therefore
more weight will be given to the GFS.

First, looking at the weekend precipitation. Believe the colder
GFS solution is the way to go given the degree of cold air within
this pattern. Both models show a subtle H7/H5 wave moving ENE
across the area Saturday night. Could be some very light precip
into SEMO by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night, a swath of light
precip / QPF expected somewhere across the CWFA. Again, ECMWF 00z
run showed hardly anything, then the 12z run ramps up QPF (a bit
too extreme with the changes). Precip type Saturday night should
be mainly light snow. May be borderline toward the TN border,
largely dependent on the strength of the H8 flow from the SSW,
which isn`t that impressive per the GFS. A second swath of
moisture and light QPF/precip expected Sunday with the parent H5
wave forecast to move across the Mississippi Valley region toward
the Ohio Valley region. Best chances Sunday will be from SW
Indiana into west KY, only slight chances west into SEMO, southern
IL. Colder solutions again depict mainly light snow. Though,
should some boundary layer warming occur briefly Sunday, may be a
mix with rain into west KY. We generally don`t talk specifics
this far out, with respect to wintry precip (in particular
amounts). Still too soon to say, given temps Sunday back up into
the mid 30s, some upper 30s (above freezing). And Saturday night,
QPF, for the most part, has been forecast to be "light", more
often than not. PoPs will be kept in the chance category, but
upped slightly.

Otherwise, dry weather Friday through most of Saturday. In the
wake of the system on Sunday, dry/cold weather for Sunday night
through Tuesday, with an active flow pattern continuing with the
mean broad trof over the east 2/3 of the CONUS.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 215 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Needless to say there has been a rapid reduction in the lower clouds
over Missouri. Clearing working across SEMO. Models not handling this
well. Will likely have to make additional adjustments to decreasing
cloud cover. Otherwise gusty NW winds will level off to 4-8 kts
tonight, with lingering drizzle/light rain and MVFR/IFR conditions
from SW Indiana into west KY improving as the band of deeper
moisture in the wake of the surface front moves east.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...CN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

153 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1115 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

Cold front at 17z extended from near KEVV to KPAH. Along the
front, light rains drop the visibility into the MVFR range, with a
sharp wind shift to NW, gusts 20-30 kts common. The front will
continue a steady eastward movement through early afternoon
clearing the rest of the area. Clouds extend clear back across
Missouri. Will be a while before clouds, generally MVFR category,
clear out. We have delayed the decrease just a bit. A few clouds
may linger all night at KEVV and KOWB per H9 progs, forecast
soundings. Will lose the gusts with time, but NW winds 4-8 kts
will persist through the night.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...CN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

126 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING WITH VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST AT MIDDAY.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CUT OFF POPS OVER I-95
CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD RIC METRO AND PTS WEST. HRRR AND NEW
DOWNSCALE NAME SEEM TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
REASONABLY WELL. SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING N-NWWD TOWARD
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THANKS TO AN AREA OF DEFORMATION ALOFT AND
RATHER SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT (MAINLY BELOW 0C). ISENTROPIC
LIFT/OVERRUNNING WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP FARTHER N ACROSS EASTERN
VA AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS LOW GETS SHUNTED NEWD THROUGH MID AFTN BY SRN STREAM
JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. VORT MAXIMA AND
DEFORMATION ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE POPS
REMAIN IN LKLY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE (60-80%), QPF REMAINS RATHER
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE SE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH COULD SEE UP TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS.

SKY COVER IS A BIT TRICKY, WITH LOW CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH DRIER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE COURTESY OF
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE HANGING IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPS
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 17Z. HAVE KEPT IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG
AND NW OF AN AVC TO OFP LINE. OTHERWISE, HAVE HELD ONTO OVC/MCLDY
SKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST EASTERN ZONES...WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE JUST AFTER 19-20Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-95
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. DESPITE CLOUDS, MILD TEMPS THIS
AFTN, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 65-70.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW FILLS AND EJECTS NEWD OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS ANY REMAINING
LIGHT PRECIP DEPARTS THE LOCAL AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED FROM CNTRL VA EWD...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE. WIDESPREAD FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THE STAGNANT AIR MASS...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.

A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL HELP AMPLIFY AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THRU THE SHORT TERM.
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY
WEDS...SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA THRU THE DAY WEDS. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO WORK
WITH. COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NW SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH FOR THE ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. WINDS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN SWLY WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. THIS WILL STALL THE FRONT FROM JUST OFFSHORE SWWD
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. RESULTANT INCREASING SLY FLOW ABOVE THE COOL/STABLE
LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE WEDS NIGHT THRU THURS.
OVERRUNNING AND DYNAMICS SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP THURS EVENING AS MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXITING AND
STRONG CAA SURGING ACROSS THE AREA COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SN/IP MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHRAS THU EVENING BEFORE ANY LIGHT
PRECIP ENDS LATE...MAINLY OVER THE NW GIVEN DRIER AIR ABOVE H85
QUICKLY SHUNTING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO ACCUMULATIONS IS
EXPECTED ATTM. HIGHS THURS WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 40S NW TO MID
50S SE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE FRI AS ~1030 MB
MODIFYING CANADIAN HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH NW WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S. THE HI CONTINUES TO SLIDE E FRI
NGT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S UNDER A MSTLY CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT NW WINDS. THE HI CENTERS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC SAT UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH TEMPS STILL ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPR 40S.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF LO PRES OFF THE SE CST SUN
WHICH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE THRU MON AHEAD OF AN UPR-LEVEL TROF.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40-50% WITH THIS SYSTM AS CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIP HAS INCREASED DESPITE STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. BASED
ON LO-LEVEL TEMPS AND THICKNESSES IT APPEARS THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE
PLAIN RAIN.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS PRESENT AT OR NEAR EACH OF THE TAF
SITES. OTHER THAN RIC...NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS A WEDGED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS PRESENT FROM NEW JERSEY TO GEORGIA. STLT
SHOWS A CLEARING LINE NEAR RIC BUT THIS LINE SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS TO THE SE DURING THE AFTN. RADAR AND METARS SHOWED SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN.

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A REDEVELOPMENT OR
LOWERING OF STRATUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST AT
EACH OF THE TERMINALS. IN THIS CASE...THE GFS MOS HAS THE LOWER CIGS
AS OPPOSED TO THE CORRESPONDING SITUATION 24 HOURS AGO WHEN THE NAM
MOS HAD THE LOWER CONDITIONS.

AS WINDS TURN THE N/NW WEDNESDAY MORNING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
DRY OUT AND THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE ALL SITES GOING TO VFR
BY 14-15Z ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN PRIOR TO THIS.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR LGT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TODAY INTO WED MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST WILL TEND TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME SWELL HOWEVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HEADLINE FOR THE NC
COASTAL WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK TO 3-4 FT
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE N/NW (AND REMAINS
QUITE WEAK).

OVERALL...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM WED AFTN INTO THE
WEEKEND AS COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH OVER THE RELATIVE
WARMTH OF THE WATERS. THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATER WED AFTN AND
PEAKS WED NIGHT. GRADIENT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT OPTIMAL MIXING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ATTAIN SCA CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SO HAVE SIDED
WITH HIGHEST GUIDANCE AS MOS GUIDE IS TOO LOW IN THESE SCENARIOS.
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 20-25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND...AND 25-30
KT FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. FLOW IS NNW SO SEAS WILL GENLY
NOT GET HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH WAVES 3-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 2-3 FT
IN THE RIVERS. A PIECE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS E OF THE
MTNS ON THU...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RELAX BELOW SCA LEVELS.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS MAIN SFC HIGH IS STILL CENTERED W OF
THE MTNS. AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP MIXING (EVEN MORE THAN WITH THE WED NIGHT
SURGE) SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ADD THESE HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1204 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACRS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MAINLY LOW CIGS BETWEEN AFTER 09Z. STILL QUITE
VARIABLE AT TAF SITES...KPHF HAS IFR IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG WHILE
OTHER SITES ARE VFR OR MVFR. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LAMP
GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM (THAT IS NOT VERIFYING
WELL CURRENTLY). SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT KORF/KPHF/KECG AFTER
10Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRIC/KSBY EVEN
WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR CONDS TO PERSIST
THRU THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT/EARLY WED WITH FAIRLY HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FAVORS A WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. HARD TO SAY IF THIS IS MORE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS/MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LATER WED MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHC FOR LGT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

THE 21Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE
OF INTEREST LIFTING E-NE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONG
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM SNOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING STRONG HOWEVER ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR COUNTIES AIDED BY A UPSLOPE NNE FLOW...THIS IS
ESPECIALLY EVIDENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES WHERE
THE RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITY AT OR ABV 30 DBZ.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN WAS ONGOING WSW HEADLINES.
SINCE SNOW HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TIER
COUNTIES HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR IRON THROUGH
SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DECIDED TO TRANSITION FM WINTER STORM
WARNINGS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES OVER NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND
LUCE COUNTIES AS THE HEAVIER SYSTEM SNOW HAS EXITED EAST AND NE FLOW
WILL LIMIT LES ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
WINDS BACK FM NNE TO MORE NW. EXPECT LES ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO
-13C LEADING TO LAKE DELTA-T NEAR 18C.

HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL FCST AREA AS NNE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. STRONGLY CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH 12-15 KFT WILL
FAVOR MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES...PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAVIEST LES SNOW
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE THE FAR WRN COUNTIES LATE AS FLOW BACKS TO
NW. SNOW GROWTH WILL NOT BE IDEAL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST
OMEGA/LIFT BELOW THE DGZ. MODELS INDICATE SNOW/WATER RATIOS AVERAGED
NEAR 15/1 THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF GEENRALLY FM
.2 TO .5 INCHES...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE
WARNING COUNTIES. MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SNOW
TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR AS FLOW BACKS TO NW.
COULD EASILY SEE THESE COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE WARNING
COUNTIES TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND WINDS DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE
U.P. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH. THIS
ALONG WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH...WILL ALLOW DELTA T VALUES TO INCREASE TO 18 TO
20C...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS
THIS COLDER AIR PUSHES ACROSS...THIS WILL ALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10KFT...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE IN THE DGZ...
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOW GROWTH. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE
LARGELY FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS OF THE U.P.
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN U.P. SEEING SOME OF THE
GREATER TOTALS ALONG WITH AREAS EAST OF THE HARVEY AND MARQUETTE
AREAS OUT TO NEAR GRAND MARAIS DUE TO THE INCREASED FETCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE TOTALS APPROACH A
FOOT NEAR MUNISING AND EAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS THE SNOW RATIOS INCREASE. A
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR
ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF AT
THIS POINT TO KEEP FROM HAVING MULTIPLE HEADLINES OUT FOR THE SAME
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS SLOWLY OUT OF
THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING NORTH AND
EASTWARD FROM MISSOURI...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL HINTING AT
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN WITH THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL AGAIN HELP TO
LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER HUDSON BAY ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH TO
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER MONTANA...WHILE ANOTHER HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD PUT THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN A SADDLE POINT REGION WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST WEAK
F-GEN. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ANALYZING 850MB THETA-E ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IN THAT LAYER. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD...EXPECT DELTA-T VALUES TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO
AROUND 18 TO 20C ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WOULD BE OVER THE WEST WIND FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...EXPECT CONTINUED BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY GALES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU THROUGH SAT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007-
085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

409 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

COLD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY GALES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WED EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU THROUGH SAT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007-
085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

345 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

Northwest flow and strong cold advection is bringing an Arctic
airmass down into the Great Plains and Midwest. Temperatures are
between 25 and 40 degrees colder now than they were at this time
yesterday. Cold advection will continue overnight and expect some
of the coldest temperatures yet this Fall. Lows tonight ranging
from the upper teens to low and mid 20s will feel more like late
December or early January than mid November. Not in danger of
breaking any record lows though as STL`s record for November 12 is
12, COU is 9, and UIN is 10. Clouds are going to be tough to
forecast tonight as most of the operational guidance is clueless.
Am leaning heavily on the RAP and experimental NARRE for cloud
forecast tonight. Generally...expect any clearing from the south
and west to slow and finally stop this evening as cold advection
continues, and a gradual increase in low level clouds as low level
RH continues to advect from the north. Unfortunately...specifics
are somewhat murky at this time, but I expect the majority of the
area to stay cloudy or mostly cloudy tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

(Wednesday - Friday)

Continue to favor the RAP model for lo level moisture and clouds,
and this strongly favors the lo clouds remaining for at least part
of Wednesday...perhaps beyond.

Otherwise, a dry column--especially below 500mb--accompanied with
unusually cold air will prevail during this period. The only
disturbance to impact the area during this time will be the tail-end
of a vort lobe from late Wednesday thru early Thursday. Given the
very open structure of this wave and the column it has to act upon,
do not foresee anything more than hi and some mid cloud moving thru
with continued dry wx. Look for max temps in the lo-mid 30s with
min temps from 15-25 should be common. Much of this stretch will
feature max temps that are 20-25 degrees below normal!

(Saturday - Sunday)

A better signal for a disturbance remains set for this period,
although there are no gimmes with this either. Models are now
advertising a more stout shortwave for late Saturday night and
Sunday, along with disturbances out ahead of it set for Saturday
daytime.

Moisture thru the column will continue to be at low supply, but when
dealing with a cold airmass of this type, it will not take much if
the forcing is strong enough. It is looking more favorable for what
will probably be a short-lived event for the weekend, and it still
looks to be mostly snow. But the details on when enough saturation
can occur and when still remain murky, and so still not going any
higher than chance category at this point.

This event will be then followed by another shot of cold air for
late Saturday night and Sunday.

(Monday - Next Tuesday)

Deep cyclonic flow will be in place but position in relation to the
main LOW to the north and lack of non-heavily sheared disturbances
will at this time preclude pcpn mention and favor a dry forecast.
The cold will continue, with the blocking pattern not changing in
western North America and the next round of reinforcing cold will be
set to move in later on Monday and continue into Tuesday.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2014

MVFR ceilings aren`t exactly screaming out of the area as expected
earlier today. Think there will be some partial clearing across
portions of central and eastern Missouri as well as southwest
Illinois later this afternoon and early evening. However, short
range guidance is bringing another slug of low level moisture
south from Iowa across the region tonight. Operational guidance
does not pick up on this well, so am hedging a little on terminal
forecasts, but if the rapid-update short range/experimental
guidance continues to show this higher moisture coming in tonight,
will update later this afternoon/early evening to bring ceilings
back in. If these lower ceilings do affect the area, it looks like
they`ll be AOB 2,000FT, but probably not IFR. Wind will continue
out of the northwest sustained between 10-15kts will occasional
gusts in excess of 20kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect MVFR ceilings to prevail for the remainder of the
afternoon. Current thinking is that ceiling will rise above 2,000
FT at some point, but am not confident on when that will occur.
Ceilings should scatter out at some point during the early
evening, but am concerned that short-range/experimental guidance
is bringing another slug of low level moisture into the area
during the mid-late evening. None of the operational guidance
picks up on this, so am hedging a little bit in the TAF. However,
if the rapid update/experimental guidance continues to bring
ceilings back into the STL area, will update to indicate this at
either 21Z or 00Z. Wind will continue out of the northwest
sustained between 10-15kts will occasional gusts in excess of
20kts.

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

948 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROP TO -1 BELOW IN BILLINGS AND TO A -3
BELOW IN LIVINGSTON. COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
RISES NOW PAST JUDITH GAP AND HARLOWTON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
DECREASING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND DROP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ALSO LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING
OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS TODAY BUT SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MAY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED HIGHER POPS THERE. SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR. RICHMOND

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A REINFORCING BATCH OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY MAKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE COLDEST OF
THE CURRENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FLURRIES. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING AT KBIL AND KSHR BETWEEN 1700Z AND
1800Z. BORSUM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 008 911/004 908/016 004/018 902/016 902/033 013/036
3/J 10/B 00/U 03/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
LVM 005 919/001 910/022 008/023 001/017 003/034 023/038
4/J 10/U 01/U 33/S 40/B 00/U 01/B
HDN 008 907/007 911/020 003/020 001/016 901/032 011/035
3/J 10/B 00/U 02/S 40/B 00/U 00/B
MLS 007 908/009 911/013 904/016 901/012 902/028 008/026
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 006 908/010 913/017 901/021 002/013 903/029 008/030
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/B 30/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 007 908/009 915/010 907/014 901/009 001/023 008/022
3/J 21/B 00/U 01/U 10/B 00/N 00/B
SHR 005 913/004 916/019 003/028 003/015 905/032 011/036
6/S 10/U 00/U 02/S 41/B 00/U 00/U

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

255 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A COLD AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: STACKED LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST OFF SAV/CHS
COAST WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NE AS IT UNDERGOES MODEST
WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NE AND THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A
SLOW DISSOLVING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA FROM THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT
RDU... WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE TO THE EAST (DUE TO LONGER-
DURATION CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WELL PAST SUNSET CUTTING BACK A BIT
ON RADIATIONAL COOLING) AND VERY LOW CHANCES WEST (WHERE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SPILLING IN). STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT FOG COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S MODEL OUTPUT... BUT
NEVERTHELESS THE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE... WITH THE EXITING CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF. WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE WRN PIEDMONT BUT RETAIN
PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 40S WEST
TO AROUND 50/LOW 50S EAST.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER BUT WITH A RETURN OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC WED... WITH ONLY A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE 30-40 M ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND
WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SOME COOLING IN THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DROPS IN... THE INFLUX
OF THE BULK OF THE COLDER AND DENSER AIR IS LIKELY TO BE HAMPERED BY
THE TALLER SRN APPALACHIANS... AND AS SUCH EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO
SPILL IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE... THICKNESSES AND CURRENT UPSTREAM TEMPS ALONG WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS FROM 69 NW TO 76 SE. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT... WITH THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING IN EARNEST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850
MB FLOW (AHEAD OF AN INCOMING 850 MB TROUGH) RIDING UP AND OVER THE
DEEPENING SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE LATE WED NIGHT. LOWS FROM AROUND 40 NW TO
UPPER 40S SE. -GIH

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: APPROACH OF POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED
60-80 METER HEIGHT FALLS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY OUT-OF-PHASE
PRECEDING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN TRANSIENT MOISTENING ACROSS CENTRAL
NC DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...MODELS DEPICT WEAK
LIFT/FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL NC...SPLIT WITH THE BETTER NORTHERN
STREAM DYNAMICS REMAINING TO THE NORTH OVER DELMARVA REGION...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A GLANCING SHOT TO
SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN NC. SO ITS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THAT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH TIME...WITH NOW BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOWING
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS EASTERN NC...WHERE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAK...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH LATEST ROUND OF
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LACK OF SATURATION IN THE -12 TO -15C LAYER AND
BL TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST.
CONCERNING FORECAST HIGHS...WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER MAY NEED TO
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO
LOWER/MID 50S SE.

DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 700-850MB TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z FRIDAY... WILL
SCATTER OUT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LOWS RANGING FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 30 SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: CENTRAL NC WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...FOUND AT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO BE 50 TO 55 METERS BELOW NORMAL WILL
SUPPORT SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YOUNG
SEASON...AVERAGING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH PERIODIC
CIRRUS FLAREUPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET COULD
INFLUENCE BOTH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN 40S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER.
PROVIDED CIRRUS ARE THIN AND INCONSEQUENTIAL...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH NEAR LOWS RECORDS...IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT ROTATES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND
THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN US SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AS ATTENDANT
POLAR FRONT SURGES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GOM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY... ALONG A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 8KFT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER...IF
ONSET OF PRECIP SPEEDS UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...COINCIDENT WITH
NEAR FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...COULD SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH SOME RAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING...AUGMENTED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OUT AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO LOWER 50S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE A CATEGORY TOO
HIGH IF CLOUDS AND RAIN PREDOMINATE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NEAR
RECORD LOW MAXES FOR THE DATE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH CLEARING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SUN NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS ANOTHER MODIFIED
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
TERMINALS... A RESULT OF ONSHORE (FROM THE ENE) LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF THE KSAV COAST. THE WEAKENING
OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NE AND THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSOLVING OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CIGS ARE UP TO VFR AT
RDU... AND JUST ROSE FROM IFR TO VFR AT FAY. ONLY RWI IS STILL IFR
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS... LIKELY CLIMBING
TO MVFR BY 21Z AND TO VFR BY 00Z. GSO/INT ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO
WITH UNLIMITED SKIES AND VSBYS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STARTING
OVERNIGHT... AFTER 07Z... AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM... DUE
TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE AT RDU... WHERE THE HRRR SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. AT FAY/RWI... LINGERING CLOUDS INTO THE NIGHT WILL CUT
BACK ON RADIATIONAL COOLING... AND AT INT/GSO... DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER... ALL LEADING TO LOWER FOG CHANCES AT THOSE FOUR TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY AFTER ABOUT 13Z WED... WITH SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NNW RISING SLIGHTLY TO 6-10 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
WED EVENING... ALTHOUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WED WILL BRING NNW SURFACE
WINDS AROUND TO NE AS COLD AIR SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH. A FEW
ENHANCED GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WED
EVENING/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL THEN QUICKLY OVERRUN THIS COOLER AIR...
CAUSING A CHANCE OF HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CIGS (BASED AT 2500-
3500 AGL) TO DEVELOP STARTING EARLY THU MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THU EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.-GIH

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SAT MORNING (11/15)
AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN (11/16):

11/15 RECORD LOW 11/16 RECORD LOW MAX

GSO: 20 DEGREES IN 1969 37 DEGREES IN 1920
RDU: 21 DEGREES IN 1969 41 DEGREES IN 1916
FAY: 22 DEGREES IN 1942 44 DEGREES IN 1976

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

225 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THU AND THU NIGHT: THE PASSAGE OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SLIGHTLY OUT-OF-PHASE
PRECEDING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACROSS THE SE STATES...WILL
PROMOTE BOTH LIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN SSW ATOP THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS/WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SC. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT
THU...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL FURTHER DEEPEN/BE OVERSPREAD
BY A COLDER LAYER OF MID LEVEL SATURATION BY THU EVENING...AS THE
CORE OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~60 METERS/12 HR AT H5)
MOVE OVERHEAD.

BUFR FORECAST SOUNDS ARE NOT AS ROBUST IN THEIR DEPICTION OF A
COHERENT DEEP LAYER OF SATURATION/CLOUD LAYER...SO TAKEN
LITERALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE SPOTTY THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED OWING TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE BERGERON/MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. THE LACK OF MORE THAN FLEETING AND
BERGERON/ICE NUCLEATION WOULD ALSO LESSEN THE ALREADY NEGLIGIBLE
THREAT FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...DESPITE THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR (CHASING THE MOISTURE). MODEL QPF HAS NOT
SURPRISINGLY BEEN REDUCED BY ABOUT HALF...WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH THE DEEPENING/COOLING MID LEVEL
MOIST LAYER. CLEARING WILL OTHERWISE SPREAD EAST LATE...INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND 06Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 12Z.
HIGHS THU...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

FRI THROUGH SAT: THE MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH WILL SPRAWL SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY FRI...TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
SAT...THEN OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE
PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON FRI...AND MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. PROVIDED CIRRUS ARE THIN AND INCONSEQUENTIAL AS
FORECAST FOR FRI NIGHT...LOWS SAT MORNING WILL BE NEAR RECORDS - IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S - GIVEN PROJECTED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
BETWEEN 1280-1285 METERS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON: ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND TRAILING 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH AT PEAK
STRENGTH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL PLUNGE FROM
ALBERTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. BETWEEN THAT ARCTIC
HIGH AND THE MODIFIED ONE RETREATING FROM THE NE US...CYCLOGENESIS
AND PRECEDING COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM THE WESTERN GOM
TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD. THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE
INITIAL ARCTIC RIDGE AXIS...AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1300 METERS SAT NIGHT...WOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS IN
SW FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER...PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT AND
DEVELOPING GULF LOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE INSTEAD
EXPECTED...WITH A LEVELING OFF OR SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE.
THESE LOW TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITION TO HOW QUICKLY LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN RAMPS UP EARLY
SUNDAY...WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING BUT RAIN OCCURS
WITH THIS SYSTEM (IE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW AS TOP-DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS AT THE ONSET...AND/OR SUBSEQUENT BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONCE DEEP SATURATION IS REACHED).

REGARDLESS...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING AS
THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY...SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES FROM ONLY
AROUND 40 DEGREES OR SO IN THE TRIAD...TO LOWER 50S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE A CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF
CLOUDS AND RAIN PREDOMINATE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR THE DATE. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE
SUN NIGHT...WITH SUNSHINE AND LESS CHILLY CONDITIONS (THAN SUNDAY)
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...DESPITE CAA...ON MON.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SAT MORNING (11/15)
AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN (11/16):

11/15 RECORD LOW 11/16 RECORD LOW MAX

GSO: 20 DEGREES IN 1969 37 DEGREES IN 1920
RDU: 21 DEGREES IN 1969 41 DEGREES IN 1916
FAY: 22 DEGREES IN 1942 44 DEGREES IN 1976

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

115 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A COLD AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST OFF SAVANNAH
GA... AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NE AS IT UNDERGOES
MODEST WEAKENING. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
OUTPUT POINTS TO VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT WESTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA... AND HAVE HELD ONTO JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE EXTREME ERN/SE CWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HAD A ROUGH TIME MAKING IT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 1... DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE
WITHIN THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
PERSIST... ESPECIALLY WITH THE GROWTH OF THE MIXED LAYER WITH
HEATING... AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. STILL
EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST TO VARIABLY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY CENTRAL... AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEST. THIS GOOD HEATING IN THE
WEST AND TEMPS ALREADY HAVING WARMED TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
NECESSITATES BUMPING UP TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE WRN CWA TO 71-75...
WHILE RETAINING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. -GIH

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
OUT TO SEA...WITH WINDS SLOWLY CONTINUING TO BACK AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THE FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK..HOWEVER...AND LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA MAY CAUSE SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF
PROBABILITIES. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT RISES SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE COASTAL WAVE
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US. BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUG THE GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY SLOWED BY THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO BEND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND FURTHER DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE
COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS INITIALLY
SHALLOW AND SHOULD JUST RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SAT MORNING (11/15)
AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN (11/16):

11/15 RECORD LOW 11/16 RECORD LOW MAX

GSO: 20 DEGREES IN 1969 37 DEGREES IN 1920
RDU: 21 DEGREES IN 1969 41 DEGREES IN 1916
FAY: 22 DEGREES IN 1942 44 DEGREES IN 1976

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1251 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS VETERANS DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY WEAK DISTURBANCES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. DEVIATION ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 23Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL SPREAD
BRIEF MVFR CIGS INTO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 03Z...AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z...WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1048 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG I80 AND I25 NORTH OF CHEYENNE THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE STEADY IN THE
FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS AREA
ALONG AND NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE RECEIVING MORE MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 ELSEWHERE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY SHIFTS TOWARDS BITTERLY COLD OR
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. CURRENT 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS JUST COMING IN THIS MORNING AND IS SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH AT THE
SURFACE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL DEFINITELY SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20...BUT THE QUESTION IS DO WE GET VALUES NEAR -40 AT TIMES
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY ISSUE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
6 HOURS SINCE AIR TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS HIGH PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEAR THE NEBRASKA
BORDER AND INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MAINLY EXPECTING
AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THESE AREAS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEAR
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WIND IS LIKELY TO GIVE A
BOOST IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ABOVE WHAT THE MODELS MIGHT
SUGGEST...AT LEAST THAT IS TYPICALLY THE CASE. THEREFORE BUMPED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 INCH HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE
CONSIDERING A 15 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO. THIS PUTS MUCH OF
WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY PAST SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS. OF COURSE DETERMINING SNOW RATIOS IS A TOUGH
PROPOSITION GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS. REGARDLESS OF SNOW RATIOS...
BY MID AFTERNOON THE NAM INDICATES CONDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WITH PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AROUND ITS LIKELY THAT CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE RELEASED
AND A FEW BANDS WITH HIGHER SNOW RATES AND LARGER SNOW CRYSTALS
WILL OCCUR. BY OOZ THIS EVENING THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IT WILL BE COLOCATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS...
MAKING BANDED SNOWFALL A GREATER POSSIBILITY...AT LEAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. LONG STORY SHORT...THINKING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS A GOOD BET NEAR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
INCLUDING AROUND CHEYENNE.

WINDS WILL NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM TODAY BUT WILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH WHICH WILL OCCUR WITH FALLING SNOW. WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW IS NOT A CONCERN BUT FALLING SNOW AND 20 MPH WIND
GUSTS WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS TODAY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL ALSO BE COLD TODAY WITH VALUES MAINLY AROUND THE
ZERO DEGREE MARK. BY TONIGHT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20 BELOW ZERO TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WHICH MEANS A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
ENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO WARM WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...OR IN OTHER WORDS NEAR
40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WHAT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THUS
FAR THIS SEASON WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
15 BELOW ZERO. COULD EVEN SEE SOME 20 BELOW READINGS IN LOW LYING
SHELTERED AREA AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE
COLD SFC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST AND PRESSURES FALL
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKYS. THE MILDER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A POST-FRONTAL BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS FAIRLY QUICKLY SO
NOT A LOT OF SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
WY SAT NIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY THEN A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN
MONDAY AS SOME RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC HIGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES PREVAILING IN THE
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLAR WHICH WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LIFR RANGE JUST UNDER ONE MILE IN LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW. WE MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 00Z...BUT NAM AND HRRR MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WE WONT SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO ABOVE IFR
UNTIL MID TO LATE EVENING MOST SITES WITH MVFR/VFR EXPECTED TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE MAIN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH
INTO COLORADO OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMLUATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ106-
117-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML