Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
137 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WARM DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AND MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A RETURN OF MARINE AIR
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CONTINUE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MASS OF MARINE CLOUDS SPREADING SE
INTO OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS AT MIDDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
FROM NV TO KSAN WERE STILL AROUND 6 MBS OFFSHORE...AND NEUTRAL TO
THE EAST. AT 1 PM PST...THERE WERE STILL SOME LOCAL EASTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH REPORTED BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND FROM
REMOTE WIND PRONE SITES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND
GUSTS WERE MOSTLY BELOW 20 MPH.
AFTER ANOTHER VARY WARM AND SUNNY DAY...EXPECT FOG TO GATHER OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL HIRES MODELS SUGGEST IT
MAY TOUCH THE COAST...BUT BASED ON THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND
DRAINAGE LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD DRIFT BACK OFFSHORE BEFORE SUN
MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND.
BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING COOLING AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY TO THE COASTAL STRIP IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE BONE DRY LEVELS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SOME VARY DYNAMIC CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED AND RESEMBLES SOMETHING MORE REMINISCENT OF DEEP WINTER.
OUR WARM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL BE SQUEEZED BACK TO
THE WEST AND BE UNDERCUT BY THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC...
WHILE A STRONG HIGH REEMERGES AT A MUCH HIGHER LATITUDE OVER THE
YUKON. MEANWHILE...A COLD VORTEX WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK SENDING
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO MID WINTER LEVELS...AND BLOCK ANY STRONG
STORMS FROM PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTPAC. A SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTING THIS TRIP MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NOCAL ON WED
BEFORE WASHING OUT.
THIS PATTERN WILL NO DOUBT BRING LOTS OF IMPACTS AND CHATTER AS SNOW
FLIES AND BIG STORMS SPIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. NO
COMPLAINTS FROM THE POLAR BEARS EITHER. BUT FOR SOCAL...THE RESULT
IS NOT NEARLY AS EXCITING. IT DOES BRING A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW THOUGH...AND THAT SHOULD BRING OUR WEATHER
BACK TO THE MID NOVEMBER AVERAGE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE
INTERESTING FOR US WITH THE STRONG RIDGING HOLDING AT VERY HIGH
LATITUDES. IF THE PATTERN PERSISTS IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...THE
EASTPAC MAY BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS...AND THAT MEANS STORM SYSTEMS IN
THE WESTERLIES MAY NOT BE BLOCKED AND DIVERTED NORTH. AT THE END OF
BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS (240 HRS)
WHICH BRINGS US TO NOV 18...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT TROUGHING IN
THE EASTPAC COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE LATER THAT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
082103Z...CHANCE THAT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND PERHAPS A FEW SM INLAND DURING THE 09/0500-1500
UTC TIME-FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING...FOG
OCCURRENCE...AND AIRPORTS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH VCFG AND TEMPO VIS 3-5SM IN THE KSAN AND KCRQ
TAFS...WITH TEMPO BKN CIGS AT KSNA DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FOG OCCURRING THERE. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
103 PM PST...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES DENSE FOG MOVING INTO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS THE
FOG BANK CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST INTO THE INNER WATERS AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE LIFTING LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOG THREAT.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN
THE OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND THROUGH/BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AREA OF RIVERSIDE
COUNTY SUN MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCAL WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY AROUND 15 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CONTINUED VERY LOW MINIMUM RH INLAND OF 10-15 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. BETTER RECOVERY WILL
BEGIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND EXTEND FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
742 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND MORE RECENT GUIDANCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF WITH THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THERE IS ALSO A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE POP`S WERE INCREASED TO INDICATE SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THE
RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH POP`S OF 6O TO
70 ASSIGNED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING THEN
PASS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY THEN EXIT THE REGION AFTER 18Z
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS FORECAST ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE 24 HR CYCLE.
CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. /85
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME IS SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO TELL. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH MSAS SURFACE THETA E
ANALYSIS SEEM TO PLACE THE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST TO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. FORCING/ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINS WEAK
BEING WELL AHEAD OF THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO BE STRONG. WHAT STORMS REMAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS STILL PROJECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT
AS IT SWINGS THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA. DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FILTER
INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. BY WEDNESDAY A DRY FRONT SHOULD SWING DOWN
THE PENINSULA DROPPING PWATS TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE.
MODELS STILL HINT AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA...A FEW ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE EXITING EAST COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. -RA IN TAFS
UNTIL 0Z FOR NAPLES...AND 8-12Z EAST COAST. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY
WILL WANE. MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BOTH VSBY AND CIGS HAVE
PERIODICALLY OCCURRED AT TERMINALS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
3-4KFT CIGS IN TAFS. N TO NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4-6 FEET
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 63 77 63 78 / 70 50 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 78 65 80 / 70 50 10 10
MIAMI 65 78 65 80 / 70 50 10 10
NAPLES 63 77 63 78 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
740 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO 00Z NAM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING ARCTIC FRONT TO INITIALLY REACH YUMA COUNTY AROUND
18Z THEN RACE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND CURRENT FORECAST IS POSSIBLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN AS 00Z NAM COLDER THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WONT MAKE
HUGE CHANGES BASED ON ONE 00Z MODEL RUN. 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE
COUPLET OF 10-17MB SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
AIR QUALITY FORECAST FROM 12Z NAM SHOWING A PLUME OF RATHER HIGH
DUST CONCENTRATIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN MCCOOK AND NORTH PLATTE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RACING SOUTH TOWARD COLBY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND A BIT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN
HWOGLD PRODUCT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH AN 850-500MB BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING
FROM FLAGLER EAST THROUGH GOODLAND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD MCCOOK
SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN
NO CHANGES MADE BUT RIGHT NOW OUR PRECIP FORECAST MAY BE A FEW
HOURS LONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. SOMETHING TO BRIEF
THE INCOMING SHIFT.
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE IN GOODLAND
WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 12 IS 18 DEGREES SET IN 1940. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR 21 DEGREES. WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG 490DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM EASTERN WYOMING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE LINE...WITH THE ARCTIC ARI MASS ALREADY
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHER NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURE AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE SEE WINDS GUST AROUND 20
MPH...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THIS IS PROBABLY THE
EXTENT OF THE WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
MPH. DESPITE RH VALUES ALREADY 15 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA...IT JUST DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS REACH THE
25 MPH/3HR CRITERIA BEFORE SUNSET AND EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE WIDESPREAD. NO RFW IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW WITH ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE PLAINS AND HELP KICK THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND TRACKED THIS FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND DELAYS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH...HOWEVER MAIN COLD SURGE WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS DECEPTIVE...BECAUSE HIGH TEMPS (WILE
UNSEASONABLY MILD) WILL BE BEFORE MIDDAY WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT IN AREA OF BETTER PRESSURE
RISES COULD SUPPORT WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT MIXING (WHICH ALSO COMPLICATED DIURNAL WARMING)...SO WHILE
WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(58MPH)...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
UPDATE.
REGARDING PRECIP...GOOD FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNALS...SO I
KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 21Z TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH ADJUSTED
TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF PRECIP FAVORING SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT THE MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THE FLOW. WITH THE COLD AIR PUSHED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES
AND THE SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...WHICH
MAY EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN-
MOST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
INITIALLY LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND DOES NOT CARVE OUT THE NEXT
TROUGH AS DEEPLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM A
DEEPER SINGLE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ANY ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AM
CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH ONLY
VERY SLIGHT WARMING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TENDED TO STICK WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINING TWO HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11KTS (HIGHEST AT KGLD) EXPECTED AT TAF
ISSUANCE WITH A VEER TO THE WEST 5-10KTS IN THE 11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
16Z OR SO BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH 20Z. FROM 21Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR
30KTS AND GUSTS 40-45KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z BUT SHORTLY AFTER THAT CIGS WILL LOWER AND
POSSIBLY BECOME MVFR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AFTER 23Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LOW CHANCES RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST WILL AWAIT
00Z DATA AND SEE HOW IT COMPARES TO CURRENT FORECAST BEFORE
DECIDING WHETHER TO INCLUDE IT OR NOT IN THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINTER WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC DEBUT NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND IS WHY TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BEFORE
FALLING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY CAUSING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
SWINGS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM A
RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP...AND EXPECT
VIRTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE COLDEST VALUES OF
THE YEAR WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MEAN JET POSITION CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS BECOME
MORE DIVERGES ON THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT OVERALL
DEPICT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS LATE IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
05Z THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10Z...SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. WINDS
THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 21Z AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY A FEW MID AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
315 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINTER WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC DEBUT NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND IS WHY TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BEFORE
FALLING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY CAUSING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
SWINGS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM A
RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP...AND EXPECT
VIRTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE COLDEST VALUES OF
THE YEAR WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MEAN JET POSITION CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS BECOME
MORE DIVERGES ON THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT OVERALL
DEPICT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS LATE IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. LEE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER BOTH TERMINALS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT KGLD AT
TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL HAVE A RIDGE SURGING UP THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CANADA AND INTO ALASKA...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND BE
ENTRENCHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE COLDEST DAY APPEARS IT WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 20 AND LOWS NEAR 10. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MUCH BELOW NORMAL RECORD LOWS ARE BELOW ZERO AND DO NOT APPEAR
THEY WILL BE THREATENED. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE MINOR...AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST WITH BEST CHANCES IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. LEE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER BOTH TERMINALS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT KGLD AT
TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
849 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.UPDATE...
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES 1018MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A SFC LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE NRN
ROCKIES. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS
WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. DUE TO DRY SOILS AND DEWPOINTS
FALLING QUICKER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHICH FELL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT...WENT A FEW DEGREES COLDER FOR TONIGHT. THE MOST EFFICIENT
COOLING WILL BE IN E MS WHERE LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE NE BUILDING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. AREAS IN NW
MS/SE AR WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AROUND 5-10MPH
DUE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
IN THE ROCKIES. ANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD DISSIPATE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. HRRR INDICATES SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SW MS BUT
DUE TO CROSSOVER TEMPS BEING AROUND 1 DEGREE...LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS.
SLIGHTLY CHANGED THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE RISK FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING QUICKLY SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY AREAS TO DEVELOP
GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ONE LAST COOL MORNING ON MONDAY WITH A HIGH DIURNAL RANGE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS BOTH TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING BUT OVERALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. BIG COOL DOWN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE ALLOWING FOR NICE WARM UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. A QUICK COOL DOWN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW LOWS TO FALL IN THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOW 40S WEST. BIG
TRANSITIONS WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SUB 1000MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER OK/TX AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH WAA WILL MAKE FOR GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND A WINDY MONDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10-15
AND SOME GUSTS COULD GET AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN THE DELTA. THE SECOND
WEATHER STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THEY SHOULD READILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
BY TUESDAY, A POTENT TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AID
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ADDED BAROCLINICITY TO A STRONG CANADIAN
ORIGINATED FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED NW OF THE REGION TUES
MORNING AND ENTER NW DELTA LATE TUESDAY AFTN AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL INCREASE UPWARDS TO ~1.3"
AND COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS LOOK
MEAGER GIVEN REDUCED FORCING AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE
CONTENT. FEEL MOST PLACES WILL BE LUCKY TO GET A QUARTER INCH.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME AS A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /ALLEN/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR AND THE
ASSOCIATED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL HAVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE EURO WAS A LITTLE SLOWER THEN THE
CANADIAN AND GFS IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE OF A CHALLENGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...MOSTLY POST FRONTAL. THE TEMP CHALLENGE FOR HIGHS WILL
CONSIST OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION..LIGHT SHOWERS...AND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM THE LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S. LOOK FOR A
VERY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT FOR TUE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME 15-25 DEGREE DIFFERENCES NOTED ACROSS THE FRONT.
THE COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE REAL CHALLENGE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTING THE REGION. THIS ISSUE IS WHEN THE GOOD
QUALITY ARCTIC AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME
DIFFERENT TIMINGS ON THAT FEATURE. CIPS AND EXTENDED MODELS HAVE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AROUND 5-6 BELOW NORMAL. SO MODELS WILL PROBABLY
TREND COLDER. IN THE PAST MODELS HAVE HAD ISSUES IN TRACKING THE
TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES CROSSING THE REGION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE
RATHER STABLE FOR STRATIFORM RAIN. THE EURO MODEL CONTINUED TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER IN BRINGING IT IN SATURDAY. SO ADJUSTED POPS WITH
TOWARD THE FASTER EURO SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
FAR AS TEMPS AND POPS ARE CONCERN WENT TOWARD THE GENERAL SUPERBLEND
SOLUTION. IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK PROGS ARE GOING FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
STAYING WITH MORE RAW OUTPUT WILL LEAD IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND
THE LATEST BLENDED GUID DOES THAT (ALTHOUGH ITS LIKELY NOT COLD
ENOUGH). OVERALL...FROM WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY AND
SOME 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVG. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
COLDER WHILE THE EXTENDED MOS HAVE CONTINUED TREND WARMER. /17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 38 76 53 75 / 0 0 8 16
MERIDIAN 34 74 49 73 / 0 0 8 10
VICKSBURG 38 76 56 77 / 0 0 9 22
HATTIESBURG 39 76 52 76 / 0 0 6 9
NATCHEZ 42 76 59 77 / 0 0 9 16
GREENVILLE 43 73 56 72 / 0 0 13 30
GREENWOOD 39 74 54 72 / 0 0 9 29
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/EC/ALLEN/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1201 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Northwest flow behind the cold front is slowly diminishing, but
with good cold advection, don`t expect much more diurnal rise this
afternoon. Clouds are clearing from the northwest at about the
rate expected in the going forecast, so have only made minor tweaks.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow to the region this afternoon
and early this evening. As the ridge axis continues south
overnight expect wind to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will
continue to prevail into Sunday. MVFR ceilings mostly east of the
Mississippi will continue to lift to VFR this afternoon, and
scatter out as the day progresses. Expect mostly clear sky by 00Z
this evening and VFR flight conditions to prevail overnight into
Sunday. There may be some local steam fog right along area rivers,
but dry low levels should confine it to right along the river banks.
Specifics for KSTL:
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow this afternoon and early this
evening. As the ridge axis continues south overnight expect wind
to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will continue to prevail
into Sunday. Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds will
continue to prevail for a few more hours this afternoon before
finally clearing out from the west. VFR flight conditions to
prevail overnight into Sunday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow to the region this afternoon
and early this evening. As the ridge axis continues south
overnight expect wind to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will
continue to prevail into Sunday. MVFR ceilings mostly east of the
Mississippi will continue to lift to VFR this afternoon, and
scatter out as the day progresses. Expect mostly clear sky by 00Z
this evening and VFR flight conditions to prevail overnight into
Sunday. There may be some local steam fog right along area rivers,
but dry low levels should confine it to right along the river banks.
Specifics for KSTL:
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow this afternoon and early this
evening. As the ridge axis continues south overnight expect wind
to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will continue to prevail
into Sunday. Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds will
continue to prevail for a few more hours this afternoon before
finally clearing out from the west. VFR flight conditions to
prevail overnight into Sunday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cooler temperatures today as surface front moved through the region
bring modest cold air advection. Upper flow has veered and 1000-500MB
thickness values will drop from yesterday as gusty northwest surface
winds usher in cooler air.
Some stratus is showing up in satellite and surface
observations...both the RUC and NAM show this well at 925MB. These
clouds will continue moving into the area from Iowa and mainly affect
the northern half of the CWA through around noon when drier air moves
into the area.
Late this afternoon towards sunset...the surface high slides
southeast over the area and the gradient will diminish. After around
00Z the winds will swing around to the southwest and keep the low
temperatures into the lower 40s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
The warm air advection on the back side of the surface high pressure
will increase on Sunday...bring temperatures back into the 60s for
Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will continue for the start of the
workweek before the well-advertised cold air pushes down from Canada
late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Models agree that the coldest air of the season will overspread the
region by Veteran`s Day morning...making any outdoor ceremonies very
cold. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the area...but a
very quick glance at the ECMWF 00Z run is a little more aggressive
with precipitation into Tuesday morning. It does hold the coldest air
back into Iowa and Nebraska until well after the precipitation moves
well east...suggesting little in the way of frozen precipitation as
the front moves through. Will keep the best chance north of the river
and the mixed wording for now.
After the cold air settles over the region...there will be little in
the way of warming up for the remainder of the week. Highs will be
well below normal...20 to 30 degrees F below normal...including
temperatures in the teens on Thursday night into Friday along and
north of Highway 36.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Only issue to
watch for looks to be the wind as it swings back to the south
overnight and then begins veering to the southwest Sunday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
556 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
A cold front was moving southeastward through the St Louis metro
area early this morning. There was relatively strong and gusty
nwly surface winds behind it bringing clouds at 2000-3000 feet in
height into UIN and COU and soon into the St Louis metro area
later this morning. These low level clouds should shift southeast
of UIN and COU early this afternoon and then southeast of the St
Louis metro area by late afternoon. The surface wind should become
light early this evening as a surface ridge axis shifts
southeastward into our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The surface wind will become nwly and
strengthen this morning after fropa. Low level clouds around
2000-3000 feet in height will also advect southeastward into STL
this morning. These low level clouds will eventually clear out by
late this afternoon. The surface wind will become light early this
evening, then s-swly Sunday morning as the surface ridge axis
shifts southeast of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
514 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cooler temperatures today as surface front moved through the region
bring modest cold air advection. Upper flow has veered and 1000-500MB
thickness values will drop from yesterday as gusty northwest surface
winds usher in cooler air.
Some stratus is showing up in satellite and surface
observations...both the RUC and NAM show this well at 925MB. These
clouds will continue moving into the area from Iowa and mainly affect
the northern half of the CWA through around noon when drier air moves
into the area.
Late this afternoon towards sunset...the surface high slides
southeast over the area and the gradient will diminish. After around
00Z the winds will swing around to the southwest and keep the low
temperatures into the lower 40s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
The warm air advection on the back side of the surface high pressure
will increase on Sunday...bring temperatures back into the 60s for
Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will continue for the start of the
workweek before the well-advertised cold air pushes down from Canada
late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Models agree that the coldest air of the season will overspread the
region by Veteran`s Day morning...making any outdoor ceremonies very
cold. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the area...but a
very quick glance at the ECMWF 00Z run is a little more agressive
with precipitation into Tuesday morning. It does hold the coldest air
back into Iowa and Nebraska until well after the precipitation moves
well east...suggesting little in the way of frozen precipitation as
the front moves through. Will keep the best chance north of the river
and the mixed wording for now.
After the cold air settles over the region...there will be little in
the way of warming up for the remainder of the week. Highs will be
well below normal...20 to 30 degrees F below normal...including
temperatures in the teens on Thursday night into Friday along and
north of Highway 36.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cigs will be main concern...although currently VFR...there are some
upstream sites with MVFR cigs. The RUC and NAM models show above 75
percent RH at 925 MB...but only through around mid morning. Then drier air
will move over the terminals and SKC will prevail. Also...winds will
continue to be gusty from the northwest...they will not taper off
until near sunset.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cooler temperatures today as surface front moved through the region
bring modest cold air advection. Upper flow has veered and 1000-500MB
thickness values will drop from yesterday as gusty northwest surface
winds usher in cooler air.
Some stratus is showing up in satellite and surface
observations...both the RUC and NAM show this well at 925MB. These
clouds will continue moving into the area from Iowa and mainly affect
the northern half of the CWA through around noon when drier air moves
into the area.
Late this afternoon towards sunset...the surface high slides
southeast over the area and the gradient will diminish. After around
00Z the winds will swing around to the southwest and keep the low
temperatures into the lower 40s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
The warm air advection on the back side of the surface high pressure
will increase on Sunday...bring temperatures back into the 60s for
Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will continue for the start of the
workweek before the well-advertised cold air pushes down from Canada
late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Models agree that the coldest air of the season will overspread the
region by Veteran`s Day morning...making any outdoor ceremonies very
cold. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the area...but a
very quick glance at the ECMWF 00Z run is a little more agressive
with precipitation into Tuesday morning. It does hold the coldest air
back into Iowa and Nebraska until well after the precipitation moves
well east...suggesting little in the way of frozen precipitation as
the front moves through. Will keep the best chance north of the river
and the mixed wording for now.
After the cold air settles over the region...there will be little in
the way of warming up for the remainder of the week. Highs will be
well below normal...20 to 30 degrees F below normal...including
temperatures in the teens on Thursday night into Friday along and
north of Highway 36.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Cold front is currently moving through the terminals with winds
veering around to the NW with sustained winds of 15-20...gusting 25-30kt
behind the front. Winds will continue to remain gusty through early
tomorrow afternoon before decreasing and becoming light tomorrow
night as high pressure settles into the region. Mid to upper level
cloud deck will remain tied to the front and will quickly work out of
the area. Current upstream obs reveal that the main 3Kft deck may slide
east of the terminals with just a few to sct developing near the
terminals. The HRRR model also hints at this...thus have kept sct
3-4Kft deck in for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2014
Cold front about to move into forecast area. Should move through
KUIN by 07z, KCOU by 08z and metro area tafs between 11z-12z
Saturday. Mid and high clouds moving in as well ahead of front.
Some mvfr cigs behind frontal boundary, but feel that they will
remain north of taf sites. Still feel cigs will lower, but remain
low end vfr. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to veer to the
northwest with frontal passage and become gusty by mid morning.
Cigs will scatter out around that time as well. Then winds to
diminish and begin to back to the west towards sunset.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front about to move into forecast area. Should move through
metro area tafs between 11z-12z Saturday. Mid and high clouds
moving in as well ahead of front. Some mvfr cigs behind frontal
boundary, but feel that they will remain north of metro area and
that any light precipitation will remain north as well. Still feel
cigs will lower, but remain low end vfr. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds to veer to the northwest with frontal passage and
become gusty by 16z. Cigs will scatter out around that
time as well. Then winds to diminish and begin to back to the west
towards sunset.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Visible satellite imagery showing clouds advancing southeast towards
our region this afternoon as next upper shortwave and weak front
approach. Fortunately...this feature will pass during the overnight
hrs will little fanfare as boundary has very little moisture to work
with. The most notable impact expected at this venture will be
noticeably cooler temperatures tomorrow as cold air advection
through the day will only allow highs to warm into the middle 40s to
lower 50s at best. Additionally...a fair tight pressure gradient will
result in a brisk day as northerly winds gust as high as 25 mph
during the late morning and afternoon.
High pressure to begin sliding east Saturday night which should allow
the reestablishment of southerly flow as leeside troughing developing
across the Front Range. As a result...Sunday should yield slightly
warmer temps /upper 50s and lower 60s/ with continued dry conditions
across the area. Beyond this...warm air advection continues to increase
heading into Monday as strong Pacific storm system dives out of the
northern Rockies. As this occurs...expect southerly flow to only
intensify into Monday as leeside low pressure strengthens across the
central and southern Plains. That said...northern most of two
leeside lows to slowly begin sliding through the area Monday
afternoon...with subsequent fropa and associated precip holding off
until after 00z Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Main item of interest heading into the middle to latter stages of
the work week remains focused on unseasonably cold temperatures as
strong Arctic high pressure settles south across the CONUS. Model
guidance continues to come in colder and colder with each successive
model run...and feel no reason not the follow the strong signal
offered by several long range sources. That said...main cold front
slide through the area early Tuesday morning with all signs pointing
to even less QPF than previously forecast as best frontogenesis with
the 850-hPa low looks to remain north across eastern Nebraska and
central Iowa. Despite this...cold air advection along the backside of
the departing feature should allow some precip to work south over the
CWA...however latest GFS BUFKIT soundings now showing very limited
saturation in the max snow growth region. Regardless...with the
thermal column rapidly cooling following fropa...cannot rule out a
-RA/SN mix early Tuesday morning with little to no accumulations
expected.
After fropa...cold is the name of the game as high pressure settles
over the Plains. Quick look at GFS 925 and 850 hPa temp anomalies
shows values of 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal. This should
yield daytime highs that struggle to reach the upper 30s...with
overnight lows easily falling into the teens and lower 20s. No real
end in sight as downstream ridging east of Greenland prevents any
eastward movement of a strong Hudson Bay upper low. As a
result...developing mid-latitude zonal flow further south across our
region will essentially lock in the cold air in place until the end
of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Cold front is currently moving through the terminals with winds
veering around to the NW with sustained winds of 15-20...gusting 25-30kt
behind the front. Winds will continue to remain gusty through early
tomorrow afternoon before decreasing and becoming light tomorrow
night as high pressure settles into the region. Mid to upper level
cloud deck will remain tied to the front and will quickly work out of
the area. Current upstream obs reveal that the main 3Kft deck may slide
east of the terminals with just a few to sct developing near the
terminals. The HRRR model also hints at this...thus have kept sct
3-4Kft deck in for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST OFF SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL END AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL COME ON FRIDAY AFTER A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS INDICATE THE PCPN HAS
DEFINITELY BECOME MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS
MORNING. COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND SURF CITY COULD SEE
1 LAST CHANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE SFC LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN IS
NOW PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR TEMPORARY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH REGARD TO BOTH POPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. BOTH SREF
AND LATEST HRRR CONFIRM THE END OF PCPN TO OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET
ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT SUPPORT DIMINISHING WINDS TO EITHER VARIABLE LESS THAN 3
MPH OR POSSIBLY GOING COMPLETELY CALM AFTER SUNSET. THE VARIOUS SFC
PARAMETERS SUPPORT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS. THIS IN RESPONSE TO WINDS DECOUPLING
AS A RESULT OF A SFC BASED INVERSION. LATER SHIFTS WILL DETERMINE IF
THE FOG WORSENS GIVEN 00Z GUIDANCE BECOMING AVBL. TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NEARLY MIRROR ONE ANOTHER WITH
RESPECT TO TONIGHTS LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REACHING THE OFF
SHORE WATERS OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE E-NE
FARTHER AWAY FROM AREA. INITIALLY WILL EXPERIENCE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ON BACK END OF LOW AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE
COAST EARLY MONDAY. PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INLAND. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
GREATEST RH VALUES ABOVE H4 AND THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS
AROUND BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD AID IN WARMING OF TEMPS WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES...REACHING UP NEAR 70.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUES...THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND SOME
CLOUDS AND PCP WILL WRAP FAR ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW TO REACH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM KEEPS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
BRUSHING OUR COAST. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 1.7 INCHES TUES
MORNING ALONG THE NC COAST WHILE HEADING TOWARD FLORENCE SC THE
PCP WATER REMAINS BELOW A HALF INCH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
CLOUDS AND LOW END CHC OF PCP AFFECTING COASTAL ZONES..ESPECIALLY
NC COAST. INLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT AND THEN AS LOW LIFTS
AWAY ON TUES WILL SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH MOISTURE NOT REACHING FAR INLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS...EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND COULD BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS UP
NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST ON TUES WHILE INLAND DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY
REMAIN LESS THAN 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALSO AFFECT TEMPS. OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S MOST PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL DAY LOCALLY...BUT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WKND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH WEAK CAA FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT FILTER INTO
THE REGION UNTIL A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH EARLY
FRIDAY. FRI/SAT WILL BOTH FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS ON THE SECONDARY SURGE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS QUITE DRY...AND WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED CHC POP FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
LITTLE QPF. WHILE FRI/SAT WILL BE COLD...THE TEMPS ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS CHILLY AS THE COLD SNAP EXPERIENCED THE BEGINNING
OF NOVEMBER. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS EARLY MON MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SKY CONDITIONS ARE CLEARING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCES
FOR TEMPO MVFR VSBYS WILL BE AT KFLO/KLBT WHERE CALM CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PINCH THE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AFTER 06Z. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE COASTAL
TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF VSBY ISSUES
BEFORE THE WINDS PICK UP AT FOG-PRONE KCRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MON WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS ON TUE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. BECOMING VFR
ON WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU WITH A COLD FRONT.
SUB-VFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE FIRST LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING AND
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE ILM WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE ACROSS THE ILM WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
THE EARLY STAGES OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OVERALL...THE CURRENT AND PROGGED
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A NNE-NE WIND DIRECTION THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PG WILL YIELD 10-15 KT WIND
SPEEDS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK MON.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ILM
SC WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OFF
FLORIDA.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT. SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS
FOR BUOYS ACROSS THE ILM WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS ARE ILLUSTRATING WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO REMAIN THE MAJOR
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE 1 TO 2
FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP FROM FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE E-NE ON TUES. ALTHOUGH LOW REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH MON NIGHT. WNA HAS BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH
SHOULD WARRANT A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT WITH 5 FTERS IN OUTER
WATERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 6 FTERS INTO TUES MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT HEADING INTO MON
NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO N-NW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE E-NE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT MON
MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT MOST OF THE PERIOD IN
NORTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. MORE OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW LATER
TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING N/NE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT N/NE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS. A
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE ON
THURSDAY...ACTING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND TURNING WINDS
AGAIN TO THE NW BUT AT SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE OF 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THEREAFTER. WAVE
HEIGHTS THURSDAY BUILD TO 3-4 FT...AND THEN TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY WHEN
AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
446 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS HAVE REPLACED THE COLD ADVECTION LOW
CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY WHILE THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGS A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH WESTERN AREAS FOR THE LAST PART
OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SPEEDING OFF TO OUR NORTH SO THE LIGHT MODEL QPFS LOOK REASONABLE.
PLUMES SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PRECIP OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN
MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM JOHNSTOWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...A
PRETTY TYPICAL COOL SEASON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PATTERN.
AFTER STARTING OFF BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST
TIME THIS YOUNG COOL SEASON...HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE
TODAY ONLY RISING INTO THE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OR WASH OUT ALTOGETHER
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE OF THE
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY...RISING INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MUCH HERALDED DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSTER LOW...THE EXTRATROPICAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI...IN THE
BERING SEA WEST OF ALASKA HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS HELPING
TO PUSH ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR SOUTH. MODELS ADVERTISE THIS COLD
POOL TO EVENTUALLY TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...BEFORE SLOSHING EAST TO CHILL DOWN MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
US TO THE EAST COAST.
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE TRANQUIL AND DRY AHEAD OF A WAVE
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GR LAKES TUESDAY. THIS IS MADE TO SPEED THROUGH THE
AREA WITH JUST LIGHT PRECIP FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF USHERING IN THE COLD AIR THAT IS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA.
WHILE THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE ALL AGREES ON THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND TURNING COLD...THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES REMAIN A BIT MURKY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SPEEDING
THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF SHARPENS ITS FEATURE MARKEDLY. MOISTURE
DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION FROM SOMETHING THAT LOOKS LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF WANTS
TO GENERATE COULD YIELD A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WHERE
TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO STICK. IT IS EARLY
IN THE YEAR AND WAY TOO FAR OUT TO SPECULATE MUCH BEYOND THAT AT
THIS POINT. WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE SUREST BET PART OF THE FORECAST IS
THAT THE WEEK WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE THAN IT STARTS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A FEW LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLDS FROM WARM
ADVECTION ALREADY IN WESTERN AREAS.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOOP OF IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
LATE THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT
LKS. FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
KBFD...WHERE BOTH RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS BTWN 07Z-11Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU
NORTHWEST PA.
ALL MDL DATA SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
SATURDAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVR THE
W MTNS LATE SAT EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE W MTNS.
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS. STRATUS CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...BUT
THE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A FEW LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLDS FROM WARM
ADVECTION ALREADY IN WESTERN AREAS.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOOP OF IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
LATE THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT
LKS. FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
KBFD...WHERE BOTH RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS BTWN 07Z-11Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU
NORTHWEST PA.
ALL MDL DATA SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
SATURDAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVR THE
W MTNS LATE SAT EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE W MTNS.
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1000 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH NEWEST MODEL RUNS AS ADDRESSED
BELOW. HAVE HAD A SCATTERED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING ORIENTED FROM KINGSBURY COUNTY TO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA. THIS BAND HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT/FRONTOGENETIC BAND WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. RADAR TRENDS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE BAND HAS INDEED BEEN DOING THIS...AS WELL AS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. AM BEGINNING
TO THINK THAT MUCH OF OUR CWA MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM/GEM AND LATEST RUC KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION AFTER 12Z ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...AM GOING TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF OUR CURRENT HEADLINES A FEW HOURS...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TREND...OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO MAKE
ACTUAL CHANGE TO HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS OPEN WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE IN. GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INITIALLY AS FORECAST AREA IS IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...HOWEVER...AS
THE JET STREAK MIGRATES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AND THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS COLLAPSES SOUTHWARD JET STREAK PIVOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z...EXPECT LIFT
TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE REAL CONCERN THOUGH IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION BAND...WHERE A DRY LAYER FROM 850-700 MB CAUSES
PRECIPITATION ISSUES. WITH THE LACK OF ICE FROM ALOFT...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. CURRENT THINKING PLACES THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG I-90...AND AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATING
MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM 09-15Z.
THEREAFTER...THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE
PREVAILING PRECIP TYPE IS SNOW. 12Z RUNS HAVE INCHED THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BAND EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN FAIRLY WET CLOSE TO A 10:1 RATIO...BUT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN SNOW RATIOS SHOULD CLIMB CLOSER TO 20:1. WITH
WIND AND SNOW...WENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN LOCATIONS WHERE 6
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE A BUFFER ADVISORY FOR
LESSER SNOW AMOUNT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE WHERE MIXED PRECIP COULD BE
AN ISSUE INITIALLY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS
EAST BUT BREEZY NORTH WINDS MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT WIND
CHILL VALUES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
WITH HIGH IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...LIMITED TIME DEVOTED TO EXTENDED GRIDS. THE PREVAILING
THEME BEYOND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OOZE INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL/WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE AND DEPTH OF THE SNOW
FIELD...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. HAVE TRIED
TO MODIFY FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MAY DROP SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT PRIMARILY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO EJECT A BIT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER AS
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY RUSH IN. FOR THIS REASON...DECIDED TO LEAVE
MIXED PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF SITES. IN FACT...CONTINUED TO LEAVE
KSUX DRY AS THEY LOOK TOO FAR SOUTH TO RECEIVE SNOW OR RAIN. BUT
INDICATIONS FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME POSSIBLE IFR
STRATUS GENERATING AT KSUX NEAR 11Z OR 12Z...RISING SLIGHTLY TO
LOWER END MVFR BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...KHON WILL BE IMPACTED
FIRST BY SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY GOING IFR AS EARLY 12Z...THEN LASTING
THROUGH A BULK OF THE DAY. KFSD IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC...IN THAT
THEY MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IT APPEARS
THAT KFSD COULD GO IFR FOR A WHILE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY IN WINDY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR SDZ038-039-052>059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
SDZ040.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ080-081-090-097.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
923 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH NEWEST MODEL RUNS AS ADDRESSED
BELOW. HAVE HAD A SCATTERED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING ORIENTED FROM KINGSBURY COUNTY TO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA. THIS BAND HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT/FRONTOGENETIC BAND WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. RADAR TRENDS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE BAND HAS INDEED BEEN DOING THIS...AS WELL AS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. AM BEGINNING
TO THINK THAT MUCH OF OUR CWA MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM/GEM AND LATEST RUC KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE
ON THE REGION AFTER 12Z ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...AM GOING TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF OUR CURRENT HEADLINES A FEW HOURS...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TREND...OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO MAKE
ACTUAL CHANGE TO HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS OPEN WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE IN. GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INITIALLY AS FORECAST AREA IS IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...HOWEVER...AS
THE JET STREAK MIGRATES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AND THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS COLLAPSES SOUTHWARD JET STREAK PIVOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z...EXPECT LIFT
TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE REAL CONCERN THOUGH IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION BAND...WHERE A DRY LAYER FROM 850-700 MB CAUSES
PRECIPITATION ISSUES. WITH THE LACK OF ICE FROM ALOFT...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. CURRENT THINKING PLACES THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG I-90...AND AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATING
MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM 09-15Z.
THEREAFTER...THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE
PREVAILING PRECIP TYPE IS SNOW. 12Z RUNS HAVE INCHED THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BAND EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN FAIRLY WET CLOSE TO A 10:1 RATIO...BUT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN SNOW RATIOS SHOULD CLIMB CLOSER TO 20:1. WITH
WIND AND SNOW...WENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN LOCATIONS WHERE 6
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE A BUFFER ADVISORY FOR
LESSER SNOW AMOUNT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE WHERE MIXED PRECIP COULD BE
AN ISSUE INITIALLY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS
EAST BUT BREEZY NORTH WINDS MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT WIND
CHILL VALUES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
WITH HIGH IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...LIMITED TIME DEVOTED TO EXTENDED GRIDS. THE PREVAILING
THEME BEYOND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OOZE INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL/WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE AND DEPTH OF THE SNOW
FIELD...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. HAVE TRIED
TO MODIFY FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MAY DROP SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES TO THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
WITH A WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING...CONDITIONS WILL HEAD INTO
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 GREATLY AFFECTING THE KFSD AND KHON TAF SITES. SNOW AND WIND
ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS AT KHON...WITH A WINTRY MIX QUITE POSSIBLE
AT KFSD MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW BY
MIDDAY. ACCORDING TO THE NAM12 SOUNDING...EVEN KSUX COULD RECEIVE
IFR CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. BUT FOR NOW...LEFT THE KSUX TAF SITE DRY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ038-039-052>059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR SDZ040.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ080-081-090-097.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-072.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRISK THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MUCH MORE SOLID A COUPLE HOURS
AGO... WITH NOTABLE HOLES AND MUCH MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...SETS
WELL WITH RAP AND NAM RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEST BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z...WHILE HOLDING ON TO CLOUDS FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER THROUGH
THE EAST. OTHER THAN INCREASING THE SHORT RANGE SKYCOVER...TRENDS
LOOK GOOD WITH A LATER MORNING DECREASE BEFORE THICKENING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
TREND TOWARD STABILIZING THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE FOR MOST...LOWER TO MID 40S EAST...BUT BETTER RETURN
GRADIENT AND WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME LOWER 50S TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
INTENSE JET OF 150+ KNOTS DIGS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THREAT FOR ANY ISENTROPICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
BEST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WORST CASE A LITTLE NON MEASURABLE
03Z-08Z BRUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AROUND KMML...BUT
SIDING WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP THIS AT BAY. GOOD NEWS
HERE AGAIN IS THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH CLIPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PULLING WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED SOME TEMPS ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE TAKEN THIS FAR ENOUGH IF
WARMING WITH RECENT NOCTURNAL WARM SURGES IS ANY MEASURE. WEAK
SIGNATURE OF WIND ENHANCEMENT DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO RIDGE. LATER IN
THE NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND CLIPPER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. NAM
REPRESENTS BY FAR THE SLOWEST WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE SOLID CONSENSUS
OF OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...GENERALLY A KMJQ TO KYKN
LINE BY 12Z. FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WITH PRESENCE OF WARMER
SECTOR OF CLIPPER HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY RIDGE INDUCED COOLING DURING THE EVENING EAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S...AND MAINLY FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE AREA MAINLY INTO THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE
WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MORESO THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND
WILL TWEAK UPWARDS A LITTLE AS SOMETIMES THE NAM HANDLES THESE
BOUNDARIES A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FALL. BUT OVERALL A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO
EXPECTING HIGH FROM ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
55 TO 60 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING FORCING ALONG
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND CHANGE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN QUICKLY
OVER TO SNOW. LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SMALL WARM LAYER
ALOFT THAT COULD BRIEFLY SUPPORT SOME SLEET BUT OVERALL THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW AS STRONG FORCING AND QUICK
SATURATION SUPPORT SNOW.
HAVE DROPPED POPS AND QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH...BOTH LOWER RESOLUTION AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS KEEPS POPS AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BUT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD INTO
THE 5TH PERIOD WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS
WERE TO TREND ANOTHER 30 TO 50 MILES NORTH AMOUNTS EVEN FROM
BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL WOULD LIKELY BE 3 INCHES OR LESS. DO LIKE THE
IDEA THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW WITH A TIGHTER
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT CHANCE AT
SOME ENHANCED BANDING. FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AND MAINLY FROM
BROOKINGS TOWARDS MARSHALL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND HAVE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH WHICH MIGHT
START OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BUT BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES
SEEN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A COLD PATTERN
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE SNOWFALL DOES END UP
BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE RECENT TRENDS THEN SOME OF THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE CHANGES. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET BUT
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK WAVE THAT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BUILD DOWN FROM ALOFT
TOWARDS THE SURFACE. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BUILD DOWN TOWARDS MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON STARTING AT
KHON...SPREADING EAST AS DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
542 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRISK THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MUCH MORE SOLID A COUPLE HOURS
AGO... WITH NOTABLE HOLES AND MUCH MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...SETS
WELL WITH RAP AND NAM RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEST BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z...WHILE HOLDING ON TO CLOUDS FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER THROUGH
THE EAST. OTHER THAN INCREASING THE SHORT RANGE SKYCOVER...TRENDS
LOOK GOOD WITH A LATER MORNING DECREASE BEFORE THICKENING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
TREND TOWARD STABILIZING THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE FOR MOST...LOWER TO MID 40S EAST...BUT BETTER RETURN
GRADIENT AND WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME LOWER 50S TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
INTENSE JET OF 150+ KNOTS DIGS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THREAT FOR ANY ISENTROPICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
BEST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WORST CASE A LITTLE NON MEASURABLE
03Z-08Z BRUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AROUND KMML...BUT
SIDING WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP THIS AT BAY. GOOD NEWS
HERE AGAIN IS THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH CLIPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PULLING WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED SOME TEMPS ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE TAKEN THIS FAR ENOUGH IF
WARMING WITH RECENT NOCTURNAL WARM SURGES IS ANY MEASURE. WEAK
SIGNATURE OF WIND ENHANCEMENT DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO RIDGE. LATER IN
THE NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND CLIPPER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. NAM
REPRESENTS BY FAR THE SLOWEST WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE SOLID CONSENSUS
OF OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...GENERALLY A KMJQ TO KYKN
LINE BY 12Z. FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WITH PRESENCE OF WARMER
SECTOR OF CLIPPER HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY RIDGE INDUCED COOLING DURING THE EVENING EAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S...AND MAINLY FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE AREA MAINLY INTO THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE
WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MORESO THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND
WILL TWEAK UPWARDS A LITTLE AS SOMETIMES THE NAM HANDLES THESE
BOUNDARIES A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FALL. BUT OVERALL A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO
EXPECTING HIGH FROM ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
55 TO 60 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING FORCING ALONG
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND CHANGE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN QUICKLY
OVER TO SNOW. LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SMALL WARM LAYER
ALOFT THAT COULD BRIEFLY SUPPORT SOME SLEET BUT OVERALL THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW AS STRONG FORCING AND QUICK
SATURATION SUPPORT SNOW.
HAVE DROPPED POPS AND QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH...BOTH LOWER RESOLUTION AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS KEEPS POPS AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BUT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD INTO
THE 5TH PERIOD WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS
WERE TO TREND ANOTHER 30 TO 50 MILES NORTH AMOUNTS EVEN FROM
BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL WOULD LIKELY BE 3 INCHES OR LESS. DO LIKE THE
IDEA THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW WITH A TIGHTER
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT CHANCE AT
SOME ENHANCED BANDING. FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AND MAINLY FROM
BROOKINGS TOWARDS MARSHALL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND HAVE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH WHICH MIGHT
START OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BUT BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES
SEEN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A COLD PATTERN
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE SNOWFALL DOES END UP
BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE RECENT TRENDS THEN SOME OF THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE CHANGES. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET BUT
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK WAVE THAT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 29 AND
EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH
12Z SUN...WITH OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH THE VERY UPPER END
OF MVFR HEIGHTS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MAY NEED TO ADD IN A
PERIOD OF LLWS TO THE KSUX/KFSD TAFS IF LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE IN LATER RUNS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
314 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRISK THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MUCH MORE SOLID A COUPLE HOURS
AGO... WITH NOTABLE HOLES AND MUCH MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...SETS
WELL WITH RAP AND NAM RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEST BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z...WHILE HOLDING ON TO CLOUDS FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER THROUGH
THE EAST. OTHER THAN INCREASING THE SHORT RANGE SKYCOVER...TRENDS
LOOK GOOD WITH A LATER MORNING DECREASE BEFORE THICKENING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
TREND TOWARD STABILIZING THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE FOR MOST...LOWER TO MID 40S EAST...BUT BETTER RETURN
GRADIENT AND WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME LOWER 50S TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
INTENSE JET OF 150+ KNOTS DIGS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THREAT FOR ANY ISENTROPICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
BEST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WORST CASE A LITTLE NON MEASURABLE
03Z-08Z BRUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AROUND KMML...BUT
SIDING WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP THIS AT BAY. GOOD NEWS
HERE AGAIN IS THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH CLIPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PULLING WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED SOME TEMPS ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE TAKEN THIS FAR ENOUGH IF
WARMING WITH RECENT NOCTURNAL WARM SURGES IS ANY MEASURE. WEAK
SIGNATURE OF WIND ENHANCEMENT DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO RIDGE. LATER IN
THE NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND CLIPPER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. NAM
REPRESENTS BY FAR THE SLOWEST WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE SOLID CONSENSUS
OF OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...GENERALLY A KMJQ TO KYKN
LINE BY 12Z. FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WITH PRESENCE OF WARMER
SECTOR OF CLIPPER HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY RIDGE INDUCED COOLING DURING THE EVENING EAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S...AND MAINLY FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE AREA MAINLY INTO THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE
WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MORESO THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND
WILL TWEAK UPWARDS A LITTLE AS SOMETIMES THE NAM HANDLES THESE
BOUNDARIES A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FALL. BUT OVERALL A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO
EXPECTING HIGH FROM ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
55 TO 60 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING FORCING ALONG
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND CHANGE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN QUICKLY
OVER TO SNOW. LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SMALL WARM LAYER
ALOFT THAT COULD BRIEFLY SUPPORT SOME SLEET BUT OVERALL THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW AS STRONG FORCING AND QUICK
SATURATION SUPPORT SNOW.
HAVE DROPPED POPS AND QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH...BOTH LOWER RESOLUTION AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS KEEPS POPS AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BUT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD INTO
THE 5TH PERIOD WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS
WERE TO TREND ANOTHER 30 TO 50 MILES NORTH AMOUNTS EVEN FROM
BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL WOULD LIKELY BE 3 INCHES OR LESS. DO LIKE THE
IDEA THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW WITH A TIGHTER
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT CHANCE AT
SOME ENHANCED BANDING. FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AND MAINLY FROM
BROOKINGS TOWARDS MARSHALL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND HAVE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH WHICH MIGHT
START OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BUT BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES
SEEN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A COLD PATTERN
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE SNOWFALL DOES END UP
BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE RECENT TRENDS THEN SOME OF THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE CHANGES. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET BUT
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK WAVE THAT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN AFTER 10Z. BROKEN CEILINGS WILL HOVER
AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER DECKS TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THERE WILL BE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ071.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1041 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL MB WITH MAIN COOL FRONT
ABOUT READY TO EXIT CWA AS IT THRUSTS INTO WESTERN NE. PEAK
MIXING/ISALLOBARIC FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST HIGHEST WINDS ARE
ABOUT DONE. 18Z NAM/20Z RAP SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL TAKE A
CLOSE LOOK AT 300PM OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DETERMINATION ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING...CERTAINLY
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE IF WARNING IS DROPPED.
LAST BATCH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HITTING THE HILLS
WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY CREATE BREEZY SPOTS ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE MILD
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...STILL LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST COULD INCREASE AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP...AND SO THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SECONDARY WAVE/UPPER LOW STILL PLANS ON BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. WITH
SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS...POSSIBLY MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST...AND NOW ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1026 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Post-frontal winds
will drop off this afternoon, w/light return flow resuming Sunday.
Buffer soundings suggest stratus/fog developing KCNM/KPEQ around
sunrise, but we`ll keep things VFR for now.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
Cold front moving through the area... as of 11z it was south of a
MAF to PEQ line. North wind will be gusty behind the front
decreasing by afternoon. Brief morning fog has dissipated as drier
air moves into the region. VFR through the period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and some fog located over
the eastern portions Terrell County this morning, extending
northward across extreme eastern portions of Pecos County and into
the Midland area. The HRRR model suggests that as the cold front
continues to move southward across the area, clouds and fog in
these areas should diminish between 7 AM and 9 AM CST. The cold
front has made it to the central Permian Basin. It should move through
the entire area pretty rapidly today, making way for mostly sunny
skies.
As the cold front moves across the area this morning, breezy
conditions are expected along and just behind the front. A high
wind warning is in effect until 11 am MST for the Guadalupe
Mountains for high winds primarily through the pass.
The big concern for this forecast period remains the potential for a
significant freeze Wednesday through Friday morning across much of
the area east of the mountains. In many cases, our coldest nights
occur on the second night after a frontal passage. This could very
well be the case here. The ECMWF is indicating the potential for
temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday morning. We have not
committed to temperatures that cold into the forecast yet.
Forecast soundings show at least some potential for clouds
Thursday morning. This could moderate temperatures slightly. For
now, we have forecast a hard freeze reaching as far south as the
near the Midland and Odessa area with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.
A warming trend is in store through Monday prior to the arrival of
the significant cold front. Monday looks breezy as well. Downslope
southwest to west winds could result in temperatures on Monday
being in the 80s across the Upper Trans Pecos and western portions
of the Permian Basin. With the arrival of the cold front early
Tuesday, it will be tough to warm out of the 40s and 50s for the
remainder of the week.
There are no significant changes to the forecast. The next chance
of any rain should be over the northern portions of the area next
weekend. However, a lot can happen in a week. For now, we have
introduced low order POPs for next Friday night into early Saturday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front moving through the area... as of 11z it was south of a
MAF to PEQ line. North wind will be gusty behind the front
decreasing by afternoon. Brief morning fog has dissipated as drier
air moves into the region. VFR through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and some fog located over
the eastern portions Terrell County this morning, extending
northward across extreme eastern portions of Pecos County and into
the Midland area. The HRRR model suggests that as the cold front
continues to move southward across the area, clouds and fog in
these areas should diminish between 7 AM and 9 AM CST. The cold
front has made it to the central Permian Basin. It should move through
the entire area pretty rapidly today, making way for mostly sunny
skies.
As the cold front moves across the area this morning, breezy
conditions are expected along and just behind the front. A high
wind warning is in effect until 11 am MST for the Guadalupe
Mountains for high winds primarily through the pass.
The big concern for this forecast period remains the potential for a
significant freeze Wednesday through Friday morning across much of
the area east of the mountains. In many cases, our coldest nights
occur on the second night after a frontal passage. This could very
well be the case here. The ECMWF is indicating the potential for
temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday morning. We have not
committed to temperatures that cold into the forecast yet.
Forecast soundings show at least some potential for clouds
Thursday morning. This could moderate temperatures slightly. For
now, we have forecast a hard freeze reaching as far south as the
near the Midland and Odessa area with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.
A warming trend is in store through Monday prior to the arrival of
the significant cold front. Monday looks breezy as well. Downslope
southwest to west winds could result in temperatures on Monday
being in the 80s across the Upper Trans Pecos and western portions
of the Permian Basin. With the arrival of the cold front early
Tuesday, it will be tough to warm out of the 40s and 50s for the
remainder of the week.
There are no significant changes to the forecast. The next chance
of any rain should be over the northern portions of the area next
weekend. However, a lot can happen in a week. For now, we have
introduced low order POPs for next Friday night into early Saturday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and some fog located over
the eastern portions Terrell County this morning, extending
northward across extreme eastern portions of Pecos County and into
the Midland area. The HRRR model suggests that as the cold front
continues to move southward across the area, clouds and fog in
these areas should diminish between 7 AM and 9 AM CST. The cold
front has made it to the central Permian Basin. It should move through
the entire area pretty rapidly today, making way for mostly sunny
skies.
As the cold front moves across the area this morning, breezy
conditions are expected along and just behind the front. A high
wind warning is in effect until 11 am MST for the Guadalupe
Mountains for high winds primarily through the pass.
The big concern for this forecast period remains the potential for a
significant freeze Wednesday through Friday morning across much of
the area east of the mountains. In many cases, our coldest nights
occur on the second night after a frontal passage. This could very
well be the case here. The ECMWF is indicating the potential for
temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday morning. We have not
committed to temperatures that cold into the forecast yet.
Forecast soundings show at least some potential for clouds
Thursday morning. This could moderate temperatures slightly. For
now, we have forecast a hard freeze reaching as far south as the
near the Midland and Odessa area with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.
A warming trend is in store through Monday prior to the arrival of
the significant cold front. Monday looks breezy as well. Downslope
southwest to west winds could result in temperatures on Monday
being in the 80s across the Upper Trans Pecos and western portions
of the Permian Basin. With the arrival of the cold front early
Tuesday, it will be tough to warm out of the 40s and 50s for the
remainder of the week.
There are no significant changes to the forecast. The next chance
of any rain should be over the northern portions of the area next
weekend. However, a lot can happen in a week. For now, we have
introduced low order POPs for next Friday night into early Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 64 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 64 42 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 66 36 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 46 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 41 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 64 38 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 61 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 40 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 64 42 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 68 39 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
72/03
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1124 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST. ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NO
OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014/
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGUY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH KDHT AND
KAMA AROUND 01Z AND 03Z SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH NORTH
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT BE NOTICEABLY GUSTY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTINESS TO
INCREASE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS
BEING 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NO CLOUDS OTHER THAN MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL ARE EXPECTED. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT OBS SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO MAKING THE WIND FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AS FAR NORTH AS
GUYMON EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOW WELL INTO THE 70S. A SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO WILL IMPINGE ON THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THESE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT FORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
BRB
LONG TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...AND A
STRONG SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
FAIRLY STABLE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN 1040-1050MB WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL ANCHOR THE COLDER AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWA COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. IF THE HARD FREEZE DOESN/T OCCUR
TUESDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND MID 20S
ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...AND WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...IT COULD BE THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME THE
SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHETHER IT WILL BE ALL
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR IF IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL...SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
CE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/99
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
ADDED WINNESHIEK AND FAYETTE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA TO WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 08.06Z. COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AND THERE ARE SEVERAL OBS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. RAP 0.5 KM WINDS FROM 40 TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY-ADIABATIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN AREAS WITH FEWER
TREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
AT 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AIR
BELOW 700 MB HAS BEEN LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND.
THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT. LITTLE...IF
ANY...SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...950
TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 9 C/KM FROM 08.04Z AND
08.12Z. THIS WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 45 MPH TODAY. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 08.06Z AND
08.12Z. DUE TO THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 40 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW
750 MB TO PRODUCE SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
FROM THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM EARECKSON AIR STATION IN
SHEMYA ALASKA /PASY/ HAS A SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WIND AT 70 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 97 MPH. THE 07.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA...IT EJECTS A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE SNOW TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSES
CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES FROM KANSAS CITY TO MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE TRACK IS SIMILAR...THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
GFS...GEM...AND NAM. AS A RESULT...ITS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW RUNS
FROM THE ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO ESCANABA MICHIGAN. EVEN THOUGH
ITS HEAVIEST SNOW IS NORTH...IT STILL PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THEIR
HEAVIEST SNOW STILL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE SPC SREF HAS A
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 0 INCHES TO 17.6
INCHES. THE MEAN IS 7.5 INCHES. HOWEVER A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
ARE EITHER CLUSTERED BETWEEN 8 AND 17.5 INCHES AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES. CURRENT HPC SNOW FORECAST WAS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE
07.00Z ECMWF AND THE 07.12Z GFS. THE 07.12Z NAM WAS THOUGHT TO BE
AN OUTLIER...THUS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. STILL THINKING
THAT A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE WILL STILL BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING
/GEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST/ AND LOCATION ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOTHING WITH IT AT THIS TIME. BY THE WAY...THE
LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A SNOW STORM THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS
NOVEMBER 10-11 2006. A MULTI WEATHER BRIEFING FOR THIS STORM CAN
BE FOUND ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL.
FOR TUESDAY...THE 07.12Z ECMWF HAS A SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THE WAKE
OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM. THIS RESULTS IN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DUE TO
THIS...SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SIGNAL FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STAYED WITH THE MODEL BLEND.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10 AND -16C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THEY ARE NOT RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS OF 08.0530Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 35 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL
CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN GENERALLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT
AGL RANGE AND WILL IMPACT BOTH KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. NORTHWEST
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1045 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
ADDED WINNESHIEK AND FAYETTE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA TO WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 08.06Z. COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AND THERE ARE SEVERAL OBS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. RAP 0.5 KM WINDS FROM 40 TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY-ADIABATIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN AREAS WITH FEWER
TREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
AT 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AIR
BELOW 700 MB HAS BEEN LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND.
THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT. LITTLE...IF
ANY...SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...950
TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 9 C/KM FROM 08.04Z AND
08.12Z. THIS WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 45 MPH TODAY. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 08.06Z AND
08.12Z. DUE TO THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 40 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW
750 MB TO PRODUCE SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
FROM THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM EARECKSON AIR STATION IN
SHEMYA ALASKA /PASY/ HAS A SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WIND AT 70 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 97 MPH. THE 07.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA...IT EJECTS A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE SNOW TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSES
CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES FROM KANSAS CITY TO MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE TRACK IS SIMILAR...THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
GFS...GEM...AND NAM. AS A RESULT...ITS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW RUNS
FROM THE ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO ESCANABA MICHIGAN. EVEN THOUGH
ITS HEAVIEST SNOW IS NORTH...IT STILL PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THEIR
HEAVIEST SNOW STILL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE SPC SREF HAS A
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 0 INCHES TO 17.6
INCHES. THE MEAN IS 7.5 INCHES. HOWEVER A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
ARE EITHER CLUSTERED BETWEEN 8 AND 17.5 INCHES AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES. CURRENT HPC SNOW FORECAST WAS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE
07.00Z ECMWF AND THE 07.12Z GFS. THE 07.12Z NAM WAS THOUGHT TO BE
AN OUTLIER...THUS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. STILL THINKING
THAT A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE WILL STILL BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING
/GEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST/ AND LOCATION ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOTHING WITH IT AT THIS TIME. BY THE WAY...THE
LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A SNOW STORM THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS
NOVEMBER 10-11 2006. A MULTI WEATHER BRIEFING FOR THIS STORM CAN
BE FOUND ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL.
FOR TUESDAY...THE 07.12Z ECMWF HAS A SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THE WAKE
OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM. THIS RESULTS IN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DUE TO
THIS...SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SIGNAL FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STAYED WITH THE MODEL BLEND.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10 AND -16C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THEY ARE NOT RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO IMPACT KRST BY
07.05Z AND KLSE BY 07.06Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FALLING CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS TO LIFT SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT NOT BREAK
ABOVE 3000 FT AGL UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 20 KTS LATE IN THE
DAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN THIS PERIOD. FOR TODAY HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE CWA RESIDES UNDER A
RATHER DRY NWLY FLOW. SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OUT LEAVING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE DAY. QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WELL THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN MTNS LATER
TONIGHT...A PRECURSOR OF THINGS TO COME. ANOTHER MILD DAY ON
SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AROUND THE MTNS AS SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH 700MB WIND APPROACHING
70KTS. GOOD DOWNWARD OMEGA OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND-PRONE
AREAS. AS A RESULT HAVE POSTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS LIKELY SCENARIO.
EVEN BIGGER CHANGES THEN ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR PLUNGES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO -8 TO -15 BY EVENING. UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
BY MONDAY EVENING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UNDERWAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WONT LIKELY GET OUT OF THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE UPPER
20S TO MIDDLE 30S OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN COLDER WITH SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBZERO READINGS TO START THE DAY OVER
PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
TEENS OVER WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP
ON TEMPS BY LATE WEEK...BUT NOT NEAR AS WARM AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WE WILL GET
SEVERAL CHANCES AT SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND JUST NORTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER JETMAX THAT WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. ACCUMULATIONS FOR ANY ONE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BASED ON WHAT WE SEE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DECK OF STRATUS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM KCDR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KAIA AREA. THIS
DECK IS DEVELOPING GRADUALLY SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS TO KSNY AS WELL THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BREAKING UP.
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW MORE RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS OVER
THE PANHANDLE...BUT GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS KEPT IT IN THROUGH
AT LEAST 14Z. ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG AROUND
KLAR. DONT THINK THAT WILL LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MIXING OUT THE LOW DECK AND FOG
BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CATEGORY ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS PICKING BACK UP MOST
SITES IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER
PARTS OFF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE CONCERNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF CRITICAL LEVELS
WHERE FUELS ARE STILL NOTED AS READY. TURNING MUCH COLDER MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAE
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1000 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
JUST PUSHED THROUGH CHEYENNE LAST HOUR WITH A TEMPERATURE DROP OF
10 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH. THE FRONT IS ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WILL PUSH INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLY MIXING IN BEFORE
THE PRECIP ENDS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR ISOLATED
COVERAGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING
AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND WELL AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CANADA. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ALONG I25 AND I80 SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT WITH
700MB WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS AND MODEL SURFACE GRADIENT NEAR THE
THRESHOLD FOR 58+ MPH GUSTS NEAR BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WIND CONCERN WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO MONTANA AS SURFACE PRESSURE RAPIDLY LOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MAY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
700 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL EXTEND OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT
AND PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY
NEED A HIGH WIND WATCH SOON FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE ZONES AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS 3 TO 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...SNOW AMOUNTS AND HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POLAR ENERGY STARTING TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS AIR
MASS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO ENTER WYOMING BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY AND PLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH EVEN QUICKER. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES COULD START OUT IN THE
30S AND 40S BEFORE DAYBREAK AND DROP SHARPLY INTO THE TEENS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST GRIDS.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 250MB JET ENERGY
BEGINNING TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE SHOWING THE JET ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY MOVING INTO MONTANA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/GEM IS TENDING
TO TRACK THE JET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WYOMING WITH MORE OF THE VORTICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTION...BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION. WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO PERIODIC JET STREAKS MOVING
THROUGH AREA.
THE INITIAL SNOW BAND COULD SETUP OVER CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE THEY MAY
PICKUP 2 TO 4 INCHES EARLY ON NEAR THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS.
THE REST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONTOGENESIS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN WITH THE SNOWFALL PUSHING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT
REAL CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER JET STREAK PLOWING INTO THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY EVENING WHICH MAY GET THE SNOW GOING ACROSS COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT
TIMEFRAME BECAUSE IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
JET STREAK MOVES.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
IF THE JET REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WE MAY FACE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IN
FACT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH
LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES TO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUDGE MUCH WITH THIS
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SO DIURNAL SWINGS WILL MOST LIKELY BE LITTLE
IF ANY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S UNTIL LATE IN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...SO DID BRING KCDR...KAIA AND KSNY DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD BE VFR EVERYWHERE AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE WESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MILD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY AREAS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN
ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODELS
NOW INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
FROM LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD ROLL THROUGH DENVER AROUND 2 PM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST...SINCE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED AS THE UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SNOWFALL TO BE LIGHT WHEN IT DEVELOPS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL
BE GETTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
STRONG POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC
FRONT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SERN MONTANA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. LACK OF
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND A JET NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK OF FORWARD PROGRESS IN THIS FRONT.
ABOUT A 40DEG F TEMP GRADIENT THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
CROSS MTN PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED SOME...BUT WITH THE MTN
WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE HAVE NOTICED A STEADY
INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY
PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE CROSS MTN WINDS STRENGTHENING AS THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE POLAR JET PASSES OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
THE MTN WAVE REFORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
X-SECTION WIND COMPONENT NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL MAXING OUT AROUND 65
KTS AROUND 12Z/MONDAY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED AT MTN TOP LEVEL AND UPPER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT
RANGE. HOWEVER WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT NEARING...MODELS SHOW WIND
SPEEDS ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
MILD...ESPLY IN THE WINDIER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
BY MORNING MORNING...NAM...WRF...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOW THE ARCTIC
FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE CWA AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS SPREADING OVER
THE PLAINS. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SHOULD SEE PRECIP STEADILY
INCREASING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE WITH THE POLAR JET PASSING OVERHEAD. COULD SEE HIGH
WINDWARD SLOPES RECEIVING 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES BY
AFTERNOON. BACK TO THE PLAINS...MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE BY AROUND
18Z...THEN RACING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30-40KT NLY WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW TO START OUT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL THE COLD AIR RUNS UP
AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE PASSING JET COULD PRODUCE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW UP AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS...ACRS PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY 6 PM MST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY DARK.
AGAIN THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WAS NEVER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
SNOW...JUST VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK LEADING TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEK. FOR
MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH JUST LINGERING FLURRIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMP READINGS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 20 DEGREES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
WITH BEST SHOT OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OF THE WEEK FOR ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL
WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE WITH JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WY AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE BARELY MAKE 10 DEGREES.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO
THE COLD AIRMASS WHILE THE MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. PACIFIC
ORIGIN MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
EXPECT SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND A BIT MORE IFFY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPER TROF DEVELOPING
OVER GREAT BASIN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWING A WEAK AND
MORE OPEN TROF IN NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PERIOD FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 21Z/2 PM MST. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AND THEN CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR/LOW MVFR BY EVENING
AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...SWE
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1246 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT
UNTIL AROUND 10-12Z THIS MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
SHOWER BUT VSBY SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR GREATER. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CLEARING SKY AND
RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. SURFACE WIND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
NW OR NNW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/
UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND MORE RECENT GUIDANCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF WITH THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THERE IS ALSO A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE POP`S WERE INCREASED TO INDICATE SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THE
RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH POP`S OF 6O TO
70 ASSIGNED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING THEN
PASS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY THEN EXIT THE REGION AFTER 18Z
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS FORECAST ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE 24 HR CYCLE.
CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. /85
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME IS SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO TELL. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH MSAS SURFACE THETA E
ANALYSIS SEEM TO PLACE THE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST TO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. FORCING/ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINS WEAK
BEING WELL AHEAD OF THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO BE STRONG. WHAT STORMS REMAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS STILL PROJECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT
AS IT SWINGS THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA. DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FILTER
INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. BY WEDNESDAY A DRY FRONT SHOULD SWING DOWN
THE PENINSULA DROPPING PWATS TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE.
MODELS STILL HINT AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA...A FEW ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE EXITING EAST COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. -RA IN TAFS
UNTIL 0Z FOR NAPLES...AND 8-12Z EAST COAST. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY
WILL WANE. MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BOTH VSBY AND CIGS HAVE
PERIODICALLY OCCURRED AT TERMINALS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
3-4KFT CIGS IN TAFS. N TO NW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4-6 FEET
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
454 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE LAST PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60. A SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED
BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
LAST OF BENIGN NEAR TERM FORECASTS FOR AWHILE. ARDENT HEIGHT
RISES ACRS ONT/GRTLKS TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT MINOR PERTURBATIONS
LEADING TO SPRINKLES FARTHER NWD BY DAYBREAK. AMID A MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR HAVE DOUBLE DOWNED ON WARMER TREND OF
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...SELECTIVELY RAISING WRN/NWRN CWA THE
MOST PER RUC13 PROGGED 925MB THERMAL SURGE TO 12-13C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON HIR TEMPS...GIVEN DIURNAL CURVE
ALREADY FLATTENED OUT PRESENTLY AND MOST SIG WARMER WITH 24 HR
CHANGES ON ORDER OF LOWER TEENS F. INCRSG INSOLATION WITH MEAGER
COLUMN MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON/MIXING OUT TO NEAR 3KFT.
COHESIVE UPSTREAM TROFFING AS INTENSE INTERMOUNTAIN ENERGY
ARTFULLY ENVELOPED BY SHORTWAVE DESCENDING SWD THROUGH ALB/SASK.
INTENSE LEESIDE/PLAINS CYCLOGENETIC EFFECT AS INTENSE HFC ON
ORDER OF 150-200M/12HR DIVES SEWD FM SRN ID INTO CNTL ROCKIES
LATER TODAY. FRONTAL WAVE LOW EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTL LK MI BY 12
UTC TUE...WITH FALTERED/FAST GFS TIMING EXCLUDED. CONTD TREND OF
WARMER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HONED GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTD
MIXED BLYR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
NCEP MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER ON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE BEST
SUPPORT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 3 FOR TUESDAY. IN THIS REGARD...LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES A LITTLE TUESDAY...BUT KEPT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS.
KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN NAM/BUFKIT PROFILES THAT
INDICATED THERE ARE NO CLOUDS IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FOR NOW...
LEFT OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT THE OPTION TO
INTRODUCE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...VERY COLD AIR WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. MADE SOME MOSTLY MINOR UPDATES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY WITH A MARGINAL
FETCH...BUT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG AND DELTA T
VALUES AROUND 20C. KEPT TEMPERATURES COLD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BASED ON
MODEL GUIDANCE AND PAST CLIMATOLOGY. A SECOND EVEN COLDER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
GRADUAL DECAY OF LOW LEVEL JET ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA...ESPCLY NWRN
IN HAS ALLOWED FOR REMOVAL OF LLWS. OTHERWISE VFR MET CONDITIONS
TO RULE ACRS NRN IN THROUGH THE FORECAST PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
434 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE LAST PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60. A SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED
BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
LAST OF BENIGN NEAR TERM FORECASTS FOR AWHILE. ARDENT HEIGHT
RISES ACRS ONT/GRTLKS TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT MINOR PERTURBATIONS
LEADING TO SPRINKLES FARTHER NWD BY DAYBREAK. AMID A MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR HAVE DOUBLE DOWNED ON WARMER TREND OF
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...SELECTIVELY RAISING WRN/NWRN CWA THE
MOST PER RUC13 PROGGED 925MB THERMAL SURGE TO 12-13C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON HIR TEMPS...GIVEN DIURNAL CURVE
ALREADY FLATTENED OUT PRESENTLY AND MOST SIG WARMER WITH 24 HR
CHANGES ON ORDER OF LOWER TEENS F. INCRSG INSOLATION WITH MEAGER
COLUMN MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON/MIXING OUT TO NEAR 3KFT.
COHESIVE UPSTREAM TROFFING AS INTENSE INTERMOUNTAIN ENERGY
ARTFULLY ENVELOPED BY SHORTWAVE DESCENDING SWD THROUGH ALB/SASK.
INTENSE LEESIDE/PLAINS CYCLOGENETIC EFFECT AS INTENSE HFC ON
ORDER OF 150-200M/12HR DIVES SEWD FM SRN ID INTO CNTL ROCKIES
LATER TODAY. FRONTAL WAVE LOW EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTL LK MI BY 12
UTC TUE...WITH FALTERED/FAST GFS TIMING EXCLUDED. CONTD TREND OF
WARMER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HONED GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTD
MIXED BLYR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
WELL DVLPD AND PERSISTENT PNA PATTN XPCD THIS PD...YIELDING WELL
BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND CHCS FOR LK EFFECT SNOW.
PRIMARY FTR OF NOTE IS INTENSE BUT SPLITTING UPR TROUGH OVR NE MB
THIS AFTN DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH INTENSE HIGH LAT RIDGING EXTENDING
UP ACRS THE YUKON/ARCTIC OCEAN AND SLOWLY DECAYING BERING SEA
BOMB. WWD SPLIT WILL INDUCE A POTENT FNTL WAVE ALG SWD PLUNGING
ARCTIC BNDRY EARLY NXT WEEK W/CRASHING TEMPS XPCD AS STG CAA WING
WRAPS SEWD IN WAKE OF NEWD EJECTING CYCLONE. SHAPE/INTENSITY OF
UPR TROUGH STILL UNCERTAIN W/FAIR AMT OF SPREAD YET HWVR MOST
FVRBL PARAMETERS FOR LK EFFECT INDICATED FOR THU IN ASSOCN/W
LAKES PIVOT OF UPR TROUGH AXIS. OTRWS SIG NEG HGT ANOMALIES CNTRD
NR JAMES BAY XPCD TO PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. SECONDARY POTENT
ARCTIC STREAM SW PROGGED TO AMPLIFY SWD TWD NXT WEEKEND
W/SUCCESSIVE EVEN COLDER ARCTIC INTRUSION XPCD WITHIN DEEP CROSS
POLAR FLW REGIME ORIGINATING OUT OF SIBERIA. H85 TEMPS SD OF -2
TO -3 WOULD PORTEND TEMPS OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES BLO NORMAL AGAIN
DYS 9-12.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
GRADUAL DECAY OF LOW LEVEL JET ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA...ESPCLY NWRN
IN HAS ALLOWED FOR REMOVAL OF LLWS. OTHERWISE VFR MET CONDITIONS
TO RULE ACRS NRN IN THROUGH THE FORECAST PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EMERGE ONTO
THE PLAINS TODAY USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SEPARATES
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S FROM THOSE IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR OMAHA...FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW PEAK WIND
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE 35 TO 45KT RANGE. AN
ISOLATED GUST TO 50KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DO NOT THINK THE
WINDS WARRANT A WARNING. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST...BUT
LOOKING BACK AT PAST FRIDAY WHICH WAS SIMILARLY WINDY THERE WAS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BLOWING DUST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BEST FORCING ARRIVES THIS EVENING BUT BY THEN COLDER AND
MUCH DRYER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES...BUT BY 06Z IT SHOULD BE DONE. WARM GROUND WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALL IN ALL...EXPECTING AN
INCH OR LESS WITH BEST CHANCES IN EASTERN COLORADO.
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AFTER TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL START MOVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RESUME AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
850 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO VALUES THAT WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z AND AFTER 03Z WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE 23Z-02Z TIMEFRAME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-12KTS (HIGHEST AT KGLD) EXPECTED AT TAF
ISSUANCE WITH A VEER TO THE WEST 10KTS IN THE 09Z-10Z TIMEFRAME.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
16Z OR SO BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH 20Z. FROM 21Z-00Z NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 40-45KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER EXPECTED AS STRONGEST 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS. AFTER 00Z WINDS SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY DECREASE. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
21Z BUT SHORTLY AFTER THAT CIGS WILL LOWER AND POSSIBLY BECOME
MVFR IN THE 21Z-02Z TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ALSO WHEN A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO BOTH TERMINALS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED BLOWING DUST IN THE 17Z-21Z TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THREAT A BIT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FJS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO 00Z NAM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING ARCTIC FRONT TO INITIALLY REACH YUMA COUNTY AROUND
18Z THEN RACE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND CURRENT FORECAST IS POSSIBLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN AS 00Z NAM COLDER THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WONT MAKE
HUGE CHANGES BASED ON ONE 00Z MODEL RUN. 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE
COUPLET OF 10-17MB SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
AIR QUALITY FORECAST FROM 12Z NAM SHOWING A PLUME OF RATHER HIGH
DUST CONCENTRATIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN MCCOOK AND NORTH PLATTE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RACING SOUTH TOWARD COLBY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND A BIT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN
HWOGLD PRODUCT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH AN 850-500MB BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING
FROM FLAGLER EAST THROUGH GOODLAND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD MCCOOK
SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN
NO CHANGES MADE BUT RIGHT NOW OUR PRECIP FORECAST MAY BE A FEW
HOURS LONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. SOMETHING TO BRIEF
THE INCOMING SHIFT.
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE IN GOODLAND
WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 12 IS 18 DEGREES SET IN 1940. CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR 21 DEGREES. WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG 490DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM EASTERN WYOMING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE LINE...WITH THE ARCTIC ARI MASS ALREADY
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHER NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURE AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE SEE WINDS GUST AROUND 20
MPH...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THIS IS PROBABLY THE
EXTENT OF THE WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
MPH. DESPITE RH VALUES ALREADY 15 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA...IT JUST DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS REACH THE
25 MPH/3HR CRITERIA BEFORE SUNSET AND EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE WIDESPREAD. NO RFW IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW WITH ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE PLAINS AND HELP KICK THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND TRACKED THIS FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND DELAYS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH...HOWEVER MAIN COLD SURGE WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS DECEPTIVE...BECAUSE HIGH TEMPS (WILE
UNSEASONABLY MILD) WILL BE BEFORE MIDDAY WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT IN AREA OF BETTER PRESSURE
RISES COULD SUPPORT WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT MIXING (WHICH ALSO COMPLICATED DIURNAL WARMING)...SO WHILE
WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(58MPH)...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
UPDATE.
REGARDING PRECIP...GOOD FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNALS...SO I
KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 21Z TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH ADJUSTED
TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF PRECIP FAVORING SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT THE MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THE FLOW. WITH THE COLD AIR PUSHED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES
AND THE SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...WHICH
MAY EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN-
MOST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
INITIALLY LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND DOES NOT CARVE OUT THE NEXT
TROUGH AS DEEPLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM A
DEEPER SINGLE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ANY ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AM
CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH ONLY
VERY SLIGHT WARMING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TENDED TO STICK WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z AND AFTER 03Z WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE 23Z-02Z TIMEFRAME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-12KTS (HIGHEST AT KGLD) EXPECTED AT TAF
ISSUANCE WITH A VEER TO THE WEST 10KTS IN THE 09Z-10Z TIMEFRAME.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
16Z OR SO BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH 20Z. FROM 21Z-00Z NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 40-45KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER EXPECTED AS STRONGEST 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS. AFTER 00Z WINDS SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY DECREASE. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
21Z BUT SHORTLY AFTER THAT CIGS WILL LOWER AND POSSIBLY BECOME
MVFR IN THE 21Z-02Z TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ALSO WHEN A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO BOTH TERMINALS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED BLOWING DUST IN THE 17Z-21Z TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THREAT A BIT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 70N LATITUDE WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND BUILD TO NEAR 1052 MB TUESDAY ACROSS ALBERTA. THIS HIGH
WILL BUILD SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEK PRODUCING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL JUST BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH KCDR AND KIEN AROUND 08Z. ZL/LIGHT
ZR WAS REPORTED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF THE FRONT AT KRAP AND KPHP
AT 08Z. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN
WY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN NEB AND SRN SD WHICH WOULD BRUSH
THE NRN ZONES WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH AND INDICATIONS IN THE RAP MODEL ARE THE FORCING WOULD BE
GREATEST ACROSS NWRN NEB FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING ACROSS SCNTL SD
LATE THIS MORNING AND RESTRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE MODELS SHOW A SOLID AREA OF SUPER-COOLED LIQUID ACROSS NRN NEB
BEFORE THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH. THE RAP MODELS SHOWS THIS COULD
LAST UP TO 6 HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS VALENTINE BEFORE TEMPS ALOFT
COOL AND SEEDER-FEEDER SNOW GROWTH TAKES OVER AROUND 18Z.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS READY TO GO TODAY IF NEEDED... ACROSS
THE NRN COUNTIES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...NWRN NEB AND WYOMING
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. GREY BULL WY...GUST TO 65 MPH AT 839Z
SUGGESTING A POWERHOUSE IS HEADING OUR WAY. MODEL CONSENSUS WINDS
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS WERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. READINGS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH 20S TO NEAR 30 ELSEWHERE. THE
STRONG WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY THE MODELS TRANSLATE
TO WIND CHILL READING NEAR ZERO IN SHERIDAN COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH FLURRIES
TO FOLLOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET WITH READINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OF -16C OR COLDER BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY CONTINUE TREND DOWNWARD...THE
FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE 2M NAM
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. THIS BLEND SUGGESTS HIGHS OF ONLY THE MID
TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS...AND LOWER TO MID 20S FOR OUR FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION...BRISK NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW APPARENT T/S TO FALL
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE IN THE DGZ...EVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW GIVEN SUFFICIENT SATURATION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...POTENTIALLY
LASTING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS
AS THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY COLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SUB ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE. BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LIMITED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY WHEN
THE GFS INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY SPARKING
OFF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS SUFFICIENTLY TO THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A
SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER
WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED OFF THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...CONTINUED RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE ASSUMED TO COOL SLIGHTLY ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WAVE ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THERE/S TOO MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS TO PINPOINT WHERE THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL FALL...THUS WILL
RELY A GENERAL BLEND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY AND WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
17Z MONDAY. THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KVTN TERMINAL
AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 900 TO 1500 FT AGL WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 2SM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNDOWN MONDAY. FOR THE
KLBF TERMINAL...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AROUND 16Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2500 FT AGL BEHIND THE FRONT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KTS MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
UPPER SHORWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT
INTO SD TODAY. WEB CAMS AND RADAR SHOW A DECENT BAND OF SNOW
CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS POSITION OF THE BEST 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS.
LOOKING AT THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...MODELS SHOW THERE IS A PERIOD TODAY WHERE BOTH
COINCIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE SOME
FAIRLY HIGH QPF VALUES OVER OUR FAR SOUTH...AND EVEN THE FURTHER
SOUTH GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND PUTTING 6
TO 8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HOP-WRF ALSO HAS A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT STILL
PUTTING OVER 6 INCHES AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GRANT COUNTY WITH AROUND 10 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL UPGRADE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
WARNING...ALTHOUGH FOR RICHLAND WILKEN WADENA AND OTTERTAIL IT
WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF THOSE COUNTIES.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THAT LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO EASTERN
MT/WESTERN ND...THE DRYING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...THINK THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST WITH VARIOUS REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE WEAK SHORT WAVES ALOFT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF SNOW...SO KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS GOING
FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THURSDAY BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN N AMERICA UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL RE-ENFORCE THE
ALREADY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS EXIST
AS TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ANY OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE LOWER CLOUDS FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF KTVF BUT ARE STILL IN AND
OUT AT KBJI. WILL LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS AT KBJI AND HOPE
IT CLEARS OUT BY THEN. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING LOWER CEILINGS AT
KFAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE
SHOWS WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE FOR TODAY SO CRANKED THEM
UP A LITTLE MORE FOR THE 06Z TAFS. ONLY MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW AT
KFAR AND UNSURE EXACTLY HOW LOW THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL GET
THERE WITH SUCH A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT TO THE SNOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ049.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ029>032-
040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1019 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW.
TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE COLDEST AIR NOW
BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE MODELS ALREADY
MISSING THE BOAT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT. MODELS
ARE SHOWING 20 DEGREE TEMPS AT THIS POINT IN SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
THE CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS. THIS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE SOUTH TONIGHT WHILE SOME JET ENERGY CURRENTLY ACROSS
WASHINGTON BEGINS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. WE ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT THE CHEYENNE ZONE AS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE MAY SEE A PERIODIC GUST TO 50 TO 55 MPH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL
DEVELOPING ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH SOME LIFT FROM
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
MONDAY:
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 20Z OR SO BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WITH A VENGEANCE. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN MOVING THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA QUICKER DURING THE
PAST 3 CONSECUTIVE RUNS. AT THIS POINT...IT HAS THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z OR
SO. BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE AND RESEARCH WITH THESE ARCTIC
FRONTS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
ABOUT 3HRS FASTER THAN THE MODELS. THE INITIAL SHIFT IN THE WIND
TO THE NORTH AND POWERFUL COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY...BUT IT MAY LAG AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...ONCE THIS
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY
FROM THE 30S AND 40S TO AROUND 20 IN A MATTER OF 3 TO 6 HRS. NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY (LESS THAN ONE
INCH). HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH. AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AFTER LUNCHTIME.
MONDAY NIGHT:
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TUMBLE WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK. MORE LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WITH
LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND MOST OF IT FOCUSED IN WESTERN
WYOMING WE HAVE KEPT AMOUNTS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
MODELS ALL SHOW THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AND MOST PLACES MAY NOT EVEN REACH FREEZING (32
DEGREES) FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL WIND
CHILLS...WHICH WILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY AS MUCH AS 35 TO 45 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS.
WILL LIKELY SEE THE FIRST FRIGID SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. IN
TERMS OF WIND CHILLS...EXPECT TEN BELOW TO ZERO DEGREE WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 25 BELOW TO 10 BELOW EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC
AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS AND PERHAPS SOME LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS
OVER CARBON COUNTY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES BETWEEN ZERO TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN
ALBANY COUNTY. THE SAD PART IS...THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CURRENT 12Z MODELS VERIFY. IN
ADDITION...SNOWFALL AND SNOW DEPTH IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOW DEPTHS OVER A FEW
INCHES MAY IMPACT FORECAST TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MODELS DO INDICATE SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEK AFTER
THE INITIAL ARCTIC SURGE ON MONDAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A BROAD
TROUGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE MAIN LOW. THIS IS WHERE AN
IMPRESSIVE 1051 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE LOCATED...MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THIS HIGH WILL
ROUGHLY BE WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE...BUT THIS HIGH WILL
ALSO INDUCE UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTER AS COLDER AIR ENTERS
THE REGION. UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS WILL CREATE WEAK LIFT.
IN THESE CONDITIONS...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SNOW TO DEVELOP.
INCREASED POP UP TO 80 PERCENT LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRICKY SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. IT
WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON SNOW RATIOS AND MORE SPECIFICALLY THE LAYER
OF PEAK SNOW AGGREGATION. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...OR OVERRUNNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT ATTEMPTS
TO RETREAT EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GEM AND THE ECMWF
SHOW A CONTINUOUS SNOWFALL HOWEVER BETWEEN THE EVENTS WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A 24 HOUR BREAK. AGAIN...SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS
TO BE AROUND THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE SINCE WAA IS QUITE LIMITED.
MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING MORE ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. INCREASED POP
BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BETWEEN 60 TO
80 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THESE EVENTS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A SHORT DURATION OF TIME. TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT REGARDLESS SINCE ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL ACCUMULATE
ON THE ROADWAYS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST HRRR FORECAST WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LOWERING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING AT KCDR AROUND
THE 09Z TIMEFRAME...SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE 12-14Z TIME.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. TURNING VEFY COLD WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXTREME COLD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ106-110-115>117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
102.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR NEZ019>021-054-
055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE LAST PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60. A SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED
BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
LAST OF BENIGN NEAR TERM FORECASTS FOR AWHILE. ARDENT HEIGHT
RISES ACRS ONT/GRTLKS TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT MINOR PERTURBATIONS
LEADING TO SPRINKLES FARTHER NWD BY DAYBREAK. AMID A MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR HAVE DOUBLE DOWNED ON WARMER TREND OF
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...SELECTIVELY RAISING WRN/NWRN CWA THE
MOST PER RUC13 PROGGED 925MB THERMAL SURGE TO 12-13C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON HIR TEMPS...GIVEN DIURNAL CURVE
ALREADY FLATTENED OUT PRESENTLY AND MOST SIG WARMER WITH 24 HR
CHANGES ON ORDER OF LOWER TEENS F. INCRSG INSOLATION WITH MEAGER
COLUMN MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON/MIXING OUT TO NEAR 3KFT.
COHESIVE UPSTREAM TROFFING AS INTENSE INTERMOUNTAIN ENERGY
ARTFULLY ENVELOPED BY SHORTWAVE DESCENDING SWD THROUGH ALB/SASK.
INTENSE LEESIDE/PLAINS CYCLOGENETIC EFFECT AS INTENSE HFC ON
ORDER OF 150-200M/12HR DIVES SEWD FM SRN ID INTO CNTL ROCKIES
LATER TODAY. FRONTAL WAVE LOW EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTL LK MI BY 12
UTC TUE...WITH FALTERED/FAST GFS TIMING EXCLUDED. CONTD TREND OF
WARMER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HONED GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTD
MIXED BLYR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
NCEP MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER ON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE BEST
SUPPORT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 3 FOR TUESDAY. IN THIS REGARD...LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES A LITTLE TUESDAY...BUT KEPT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS.
KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN NAM/BUFKIT PROFILES THAT
INDICATED THERE ARE NO CLOUDS IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FOR NOW...
LEFT OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT THE OPTION TO
INTRODUCE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...VERY COLD AIR WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. MADE SOME MOSTLY MINOR UPDATES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY WITH A MARGINAL
FETCH...BUT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG AND DELTA T
VALUES AROUND 20C. KEPT TEMPERATURES COLD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BASED ON
MODEL GUIDANCE AND PAST CLIMATOLOGY. A SECOND EVEN COLDER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
VFR MET CONDITIONS THOUGH ATTENTION GIVEN TO RAMPING SRLY FLOW AS
WARM SECTOR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACRS NRN IN TODAY. PERIOD
OF LLWS WITH MODEST DECOUPLING/RAMP OF LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...WITH LESSENED CONCERN BY DAYBREAK AS SFC FLOW
VEERS SLIGHTLY AND STRONGEST 2KFT AGL FLOW SHIFTS EWD INTO NWRN
OH. SIG CHANGES WITH LATER FORECAST ITERATIONS...WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST TO FINE TUNE WIND SHIFT ASSOCD WITH MARKED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS WITH SIG
LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS...POTNLY INTO IFR RANGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
423 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EMERGE ONTO
THE PLAINS TODAY USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SEPARATES
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S FROM THOSE IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR OMAHA...FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW PEAK WIND
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE 35 TO 45KT RANGE. AN
ISOLATED GUST TO 50KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DO NOT THINK THE
WINDS WARRANT A WARNING. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST...BUT
LOOKING BACK AT PAST FRIDAY WHICH WAS SIMILARLY WINDY THERE WAS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BLOWING DUST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BEST FORCING ARRIVES THIS EVENING BUT BY THEN COLDER AND
MUCH DRYER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES...BUT BY 06Z IT SHOULD BE DONE. WARM GROUND WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALL IN ALL...EXPECTING AN
INCH OR LESS WITH BEST CHANCES IN EASTERN COLORADO.
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AFTER TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL START MOVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RESUME AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
850 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO VALUES THAT WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 15Z AND
17Z...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KTS AND GUSTING TO 40KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. KMCK
MAY SEE A BRIEF MVFR CEILING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FJS
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
641 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY WITH WRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO ID/WY. IR LOOP INDICATED COLDER CLOUD
TOPS EXPANDING FROM SD INTO MN IN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 130 KNOT 300 MB JET FROM
NRN MN EASTWARD INTO NRN ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER NRN
SPREADING INTO WRN MN WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG IENTROPIC LIFT AND
800-600 MB FGEN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES EXTENDED FROM SE WY INTO WRN
NEBRASKA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH SRN IA INTO NRN
IL. WITH WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...THE
LINGERING LES HAD DISSIPATED.
TODAY...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO UPPER MI WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINING OVER THE SW BY AROUND 15Z AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. GIVEN THE VERY VIGOROUS
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...800-600 MB FGEN AND
290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED HIGHER THROUGH 00Z/TUE
WITH AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.4-0.6 INCH RANGE. WITH SLR VALUES IN THE
12/1-15/1 RANGE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY ALREADY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 5 TO 7 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE INITIAL WAA/FGEN SURGE OF SNOW INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE FROM
ESC SOUTHWARD...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
REGIONAL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 850-700 MB WARMING WITH
TEMPS TO NEAR 1C FOR SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER THE S AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SINCE THE NAM REMAINED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODELS
ENVELOP...EXPECT ANY SLEET TO BE MARGINAL COMPARED TO THE SNOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
OVER THE NW HALF...MODERATE TO STRONG FGEN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE. IN PARTICULAR...THE INCREASING NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST SNOW RATES WHERE UPSLOPE IS STRONGEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE INCREASING NE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL ALSO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
...FOCUS LARGELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE IN TODAY..
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY WITH THE TRACK/SPEED/INTENSITY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. GENERAL MODEL
TRENDS ARE FOR A DEEPER LOW THAT MOVES FARTHER NW. LEANING TOWARD
THE WELL AGREED ON TIMING OF THE THE 00Z/10 GFS AND 00Z/10 REGIONAL
GEM WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT THINK THE TRACK IS TOO FAR TO THE NW /A
COMMON BIAS IN THE NAM/...BUT ALSO THINK THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
TOO FAR SE WITH THE TRACK. NAM AND GEM MODELS SHOW THE 1000MB SFC
LOW OVER NCENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z TUE...MOVING TO NRN LAKE
MI/FAR NWRN LOWER MI AT 998MB AT 18Z...JUST E OF UPPER MI AT 998MB
AT 00Z WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NE TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT AND MANY ASPECTS THAT WILL PLAY INTO SFC
CYCLOGENESIS...TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z/10 GFS IS ABOUT 6
HOURS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT WILL NOT BE ADOPTING THAT
SHIFT GIVEN THAT IT IS NOW THE FASTEST GUIDANCE. THE 12Z/09 IS ON
THE SLOWEST END OF GUIDANCE WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. WILL FAVOR A BROAD BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM. OF
COURSE...THAT IS JUST THE SFC FEATURES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
BE JUST SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE AS IT ROTATES AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER ND OR MT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY TUE MORNING...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT E TOWARD AND INTO
THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED AND MAGNITUDE
OF THAT SHIFT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND AS THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS QUICKLY NE.
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT MORE THAN JUST THE
OBVIOUS AXIS OF GREATER QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIP TYPE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK. THE MORE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS AN
ABOVE FREEZING WARM NOSE AT AROUND 850MB TO NEAR MENOMINEE...SO
MIXED PRECIP MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THERE. OF
COURSE...DUE TO TRACK DISCREPENCIES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR. IF THE NAM/GEM TRACK
VERIFIED...MUCH MORE OF SERN/ERN UPPER MI WILL SEE MIXED PRECIP
EARLY TUE.
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -6C FAR E TO -12C W AND ENE LOW LEVEL
FLOW /PER FAVORED GUIDANCE/ AT 12Z...COOLING TO -10C E TO -15C W
WITH MORE NLY WINDS BY 00Z WED...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
ASSURED. BEST AREAS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON TUE WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL U.P. AND NEAR IRONWOOD AND THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW BACKS FAR ENOUGH N TO IMPACT
THESE WRN AREAS. OF COURSE...LAKE ENHANCED AREAS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER QPF THAN IS REPRESENTED BY LARGE SCALE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE NNW-NW WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -15C...AND LAKE INDUCED EQL
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10KFT BY WED MORNING.
HAVE QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.25
INCHES AT MENOMINEE TO 1.15 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
HURON MOUNTAINS. HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR ARE
FORECAST TO SEE BETWEEN 0.70 AND 0.90 INCHES OF QPF...WITH AROUND AN
INCH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ON TUE
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN UPPER MI AT AROUND 15 TO 1. NCENTRAL UPPER
MI SHOULD SEE 12-13 TO 1 RATIOS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE WARMER AIR WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 12-15 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR...13-18 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AROUND A FOOT ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES AT MENOMINEE DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS AND
AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH RAIN EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE ON TUE AS N-NE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
NW WIND LES WILL CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON THU...PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO LES. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED PLENTY OF
REFINING...HAVE SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS
FOR WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. AM NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIP AMOUNTS
FOR THU /DUE TO LACK OF HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME/ TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT AT LEAST A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
SEE NO END OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO THE COLDER TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD STAY BELOW -10C THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL
FAVOR LES WHEN MOISTURE AND WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS ALLOW. LOOKS LIKE
LES WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. LES
THEN MAY RAMP UP AGAIN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP SW TO NE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE TOWARD SW WI LATE
IN THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW WITH A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NE WIND
COMPONENT. WITH INCRSG GUSTY WINDS CAUSING BLSN...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR AT AT LEAST THE MORE
EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SE WI TONIGHT AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF GALES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD
NRLY BY LATE TUE INTO TUE EVENING. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>004-007-013-014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY WITH WRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO ID/WY. IR LOOP INDICATED COLDER CLOUD
TOPS EXPANDING FROM SD INTO MN IN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 130 KNOT 300 MB JET FROM
NRN MN EASTWARD INTO NRN ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER NRN
SPREADING INTO WRN MN WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG IENTROPIC LIFT AND
800-600 MB FGEN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES EXTENDED FROM SE WY INTO WRN
NEBRASKA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH SRN IA INTO NRN
IL. WITH WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...THE
LINGERING LES HAD DISSIPATED.
TODAY...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO UPPER MI WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINING OVER THE SW BY AROUND 15Z AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. GIVEN THE VERY VIGOROUS
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...800-600 MB FGEN AND
290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED HIGHER THROUGH 00Z/TUE
WITH AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.4-0.6 INCH RANGE. WITH SLR VALUES IN THE
12/1-15/1 RANGE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY ALREADY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 5 TO 7 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE INITIAL WAA/FGEN SURGE OF SNOW INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE FROM
ESC SOUTHWARD...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
REGIONAL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 850-700 MB WARMING WITH
TEMPS TO NEAR 1C FOR SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER THE S AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SINCE THE NAM REMAINED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODELS
ENVELOP...EXPECT ANY SLEET TO BE MARGINAL COMPARED TO THE SNOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
OVER THE NW HALF...MODERATE TO STRONG FGEN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE. IN PARTICULAR...THE INCREASING NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST SNOW RATES WHERE UPSLOPE IS STRONGEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE INCREASING NE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL ALSO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
...FOCUS LARGELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE IN TODAY..
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY WITH THE TRACK/SPEED/INTENSITY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. GENERAL MODEL
TRENDS ARE FOR A DEEPER LOW THAT MOVES FARTHER NW. LEANING TOWARD
THE WELL AGREED ON TIMING OF THE THE 00Z/10 GFS AND 00Z/10 REGIONAL
GEM WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT THINK THE TRACK IS TOO FAR TO THE NW /A
COMMON BIAS IN THE NAM/...BUT ALSO THINK THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
TOO FAR SE WITH THE TRACK. NAM AND GEM MODELS SHOW THE 1000MB SFC
LOW OVER NCENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z TUE...MOVING TO NRN LAKE
MI/FAR NWRN LOWER MI AT 998MB AT 18Z...JUST E OF UPPER MI AT 998MB
AT 00Z WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NE TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT AND MANY ASPECTS THAT WILL PLAY INTO SFC
CYCLOGENESIS...TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z/10 GFS IS ABOUT 6
HOURS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT WILL NOT BE ADOPTING THAT
SHIFT GIVEN THAT IT IS NOW THE FASTEST GUIDANCE. THE 12Z/09 IS ON
THE SLOWEST END OF GUIDANCE WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. WILL FAVOR A BROAD BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM. OF
COURSE...THAT IS JUST THE SFC FEATURES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
BE JUST SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE AS IT ROTATES AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER ND OR MT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY TUE MORNING...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT E TOWARD AND INTO
THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED AND MAGNITUDE
OF THAT SHIFT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND AS THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS QUICKLY NE.
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT MORE THAN JUST THE
OBVIOUS AXIS OF GREATER QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIP TYPE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK. THE MORE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS AN
ABOVE FREEZING WARM NOSE AT AROUND 850MB TO NEAR MENOMINEE...SO
MIXED PRECIP MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THERE. OF
COURSE...DUE TO TRACK DISCREPENCIES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR. IF THE NAM/GEM TRACK
VERIFIED...MUCH MORE OF SERN/ERN UPPER MI WILL SEE MIXED PRECIP
EARLY TUE.
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -6C FAR E TO -12C W AND ENE LOW LEVEL
FLOW /PER FAVORED GUIDANCE/ AT 12Z...COOLING TO -10C E TO -15C W
WITH MORE NLY WINDS BY 00Z WED...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
ASSURED. BEST AREAS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON TUE WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL U.P. AND NEAR IRONWOOD AND THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW BACKS FAR ENOUGH N TO IMPACT
THESE WRN AREAS. OF COURSE...LAKE ENHANCED AREAS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER QPF THAN IS REPRESENTED BY LARGE SCALE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE NNW-NW WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -15C...AND LAKE INDUCED EQL
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10KFT BY WED MORNING.
HAVE QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.25
INCHES AT MENOMINEE TO 1.15 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
HURON MOUNTAINS. HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR ARE
FORECAST TO SEE BETWEEN 0.70 AND 0.90 INCHES OF QPF...WITH AROUND AN
INCH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ON TUE
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN UPPER MI AT AROUND 15 TO 1. NCENTRAL UPPER
MI SHOULD SEE 12-13 TO 1 RATIOS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE WARMER AIR WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 12-15 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR...13-18 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AROUND A FOOT ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES AT MENOMINEE DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS AND
AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH RAIN EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE ON TUE AS N-NE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
NW WIND LES WILL CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON THU...PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO LES. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED PLENTY OF
REFINING...HAVE SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS
FOR WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. AM NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIP AMOUNTS
FOR THU /DUE TO LACK OF HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME/ TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT AT LEAST A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
SEE NO END OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO THE COLDER TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD STAY BELOW -10C THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL
FAVOR LES WHEN MOISTURE AND WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS ALLOW. LOOKS LIKE
LES WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. LES
THEN MAY RAMP UP AGAIN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE CLDS AND -SHSN WL LINGER AT CMX EARLY AND SOME HI
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE ...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE
THRU SUNRISE. CLDS WL THICKEN AND SN WL DVLP SW TO NE LATER THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN AS A LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE TOWARD SW
WI LATE IN THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THE SN WL TURN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE IN THE
DAY ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT.
WITH INCRSG GUSTY WINDS CAUSING BLSN...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR AT AT LEAST THE MORE
EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SE WI TONIGHT AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF GALES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD
NRLY BY LATE TUE INTO TUE EVENING. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>004-007-013-014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY WITH WRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO ID/WY. IR LOOP INDICATED COLDER CLOUD
TOPS EXPANDING FROM SD INTO MN IN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 130 KNOT 300 MB JET FROM
NRN MN EASTWARD INTO NRN ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER NRN
SPREADING INTO WRN MN WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG IENTROPIC LIFT AND
800-600 MB FGEN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES EXTENDED FROM SE WY INTO WRN
NEBRASKA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH SRN IA INTO NRN
IL. WITH WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...THE
LINGERING LES HAD DISSIPATED.
TODAY...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO UPPER MI WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINING OVER THE SW BY AROUND 15Z AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. GIVEN THE VERY VIGOROUS
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...800-600 MB FGEN AND
290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED HIGHER THROUGH 00Z/TUE
WITH AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.4-0.6 INCH RANGE. WITH SLR VALUES IN THE
12/1-15/1 RANGE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY ALREADY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 5 TO 7 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE INITIAL WAA/FGEN SURGE OF SNOW INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE FROM
ESC SOUTHWARD...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
REGIONAL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 850-700 MB WARMING WITH
TEMPS TO NEAR 1C FOR SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER THE S AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SINCE THE NAM REMAINED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODELS
ENVELOP...EXPECT ANY SLEET TO BE MARGINAL COMPARED TO THE SNOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
OVER THE NW HALF...MODERATE TO STRONG FGEN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE. IN PARTICULAR...THE INCREASING NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST SNOW RATES WHERE UPSLOPE IS STRONGEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE INCREASING NE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL ALSO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
...FOCUS LARGELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE IN TODAY..
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY WITH THE TRACK/SPEED/INTENSITY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. GENERAL MODEL
TRENDS ARE FOR A DEEPER LOW THAT MOVES FARTHER NW. LEANING TOWARD
THE WELL AGREED ON TIMING OF THE THE 00Z/10 GFS AND 00Z/10 REGIONAL
GEM WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT THINK THE TRACK IS TOO FAR TO THE NW /A
COMMON BIAS IN THE NAM/...BUT ALSO THINK THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
TOO FAR SE WITH THE TRACK. NAM AND GEM MODELS SHOW THE 1000MB SFC
LOW OVER NCENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z TUE...MOVING TO NRN LAKE
MI/FAR NWRN LOWER MI AT 998MB AT 18Z...JUST E OF UPPER MI AT 998MB
AT 00Z WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NE TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT AND MANY ASPECTS THAT WILL PLAY INTO SFC
CYCLOGENESIS...TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z/10 GFS IS ABOUT 6
HOURS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT WILL NOT BE ADOPTING THAT
SHIFT GIVEN THAT IT IS NOW THE FASTEST GUIDANCE. THE 12Z/09 IS ON
THE SLOWEST END OF GUIDANCE WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. WILL FAVOR A BROAD BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM. OF
COURSE...THAT IS JUST THE SFC FEATURES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
BE JUST SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE AS IT ROTATES AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER ND OR MT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY TUE MORNING...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT E TOWARD AND INTO
THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED AND MAGNITUDE
OF THAT SHIFT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND AS THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS QUICKLY NE.
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT MORE THAN JUST THE
OBVIOUS AXIS OF GREATER QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIP TYPE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK. THE MORE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS AN
ABOVE FREEZING WARM NOSE AT AROUND 850MB TO NEAR MENOMINEE...SO
MIXED PRECIP MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THERE. OF
COURSE...DUE TO TRACK DISCREPENCIES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR. IF THE NAM/GEM TRACK
VERIFIED...MUCH MORE OF SERN/ERN UPPER MI WILL SEE MIXED PRECIP
EARLY TUE.
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -6C FAR E TO -12C W AND ENE LOW LEVEL
FLOW /PER FAVORED GUIDANCE/ AT 12Z...COOLING TO -10C E TO -15C W
WITH MORE NLY WINDS BY 00Z WED...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
ASSURED. BEST AREAS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON TUE WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL U.P. AND NEAR IRONWOOD AND THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW BACKS FAR ENOUGH N TO IMPACT
THESE WRN AREAS. OF COURSE...LAKE ENHANCED AREAS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER QPF THAN IS REPRESENTED BY LARGE SCALE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE NNW-NW WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -15C...AND LAKE INDUCED EQL
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10KFT BY WED MORNING.
HAVE QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.25
INCHES AT MENOMINEE TO 1.15 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
HURON MOUNTAINS. HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR ARE
FORECAST TO SEE BETWEEN 0.70 AND 0.90 INCHES OF QPF...WITH AROUND AN
INCH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ON TUE
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN UPPER MI AT AROUND 15 TO 1. NCENTRAL UPPER
MI SHOULD SEE 12-13 TO 1 RATIOS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE WARMER AIR WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 12-15 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR...13-18 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AROUND A FOOT ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES AT MENOMINEE DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS AND
AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH RAIN EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE ON TUE AS N-NE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
NW WIND LES WILL CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON THU...PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO LES. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED PLENTY OF
REFINING...HAVE SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS
FOR WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. AM NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIP AMOUNTS
FOR THU /DUE TO LACK OF HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME/ TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT AT LEAST A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
SEE NO END OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO THE COLDER TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD STAY BELOW -10C THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL
FAVOR LES WHEN MOISTURE AND WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS ALLOW. LOOKS LIKE
LES WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. LES
THEN MAY RAMP UP AGAIN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE CLDS AND -SHSN WL LINGER AT CMX EARLY AND SOME HI
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE ...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE
THRU SUNRISE. CLDS WL THICKEN AND SN WL DVLP SW TO NE LATER THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN AS A LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE TOWARD SW
WI LATE IN THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THE SN WL TURN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE IN THE
DAY ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND SAW WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT.
WITH INCRSG GUSTY WINDS CAUSING BLSN...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR AT AT LEAST THE MORE
EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD NE TO N GALES
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING A
BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ON ITS TRACK...WINDS LOOK STRONGER THAN
BEFORE AND ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS
BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER WINDS. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>004-007-013-014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 70N LATITUDE WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND BUILD TO NEAR 1052 MB TUESDAY ACROSS ALBERTA. THIS HIGH
WILL BUILD SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEK PRODUCING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL JUST BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH KCDR AND KIEN AROUND 08Z. ZL/LIGHT
ZR WAS REPORTED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF THE FRONT AT KRAP AND KPHP
AT 08Z. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN
WY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN NEB AND SRN SD WHICH WOULD BRUSH
THE NRN ZONES WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH AND INDICATIONS IN THE RAP MODEL ARE THE FORCING WOULD BE
GREATEST ACROSS NWRN NEB FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING ACROSS SCNTL SD
LATE THIS MORNING AND RESTRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE MODELS SHOW A SOLID AREA OF SUPER-COOLED LIQUID ACROSS NRN NEB
BEFORE THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH. THE RAP MODELS SHOWS THIS COULD
LAST UP TO 6 HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS VALENTINE BEFORE TEMPS ALOFT
COOL AND SEEDER-FEEDER SNOW GROWTH TAKES OVER AROUND 18Z.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS READY TO GO TODAY IF NEEDED... ACROSS
THE NRN COUNTIES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...NWRN NEB AND WYOMING
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. GREY BULL WY...GUST TO 65 MPH AT 839Z
SUGGESTING A POWERHOUSE IS HEADING OUR WAY. MODEL CONSENSUS WINDS
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS WERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. READINGS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH 20S TO NEAR 30 ELSEWHERE. THE
STRONG WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY THE MODELS TRANSLATE
TO WIND CHILL READING NEAR ZERO IN SHERIDAN COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH FLURRIES
TO FOLLOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET WITH READINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OF -16C OR COLDER BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY CONTINUE TREND DOWNWARD...THE
FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE 2M NAM
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. THIS BLEND SUGGESTS HIGHS OF ONLY THE MID
TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS...AND LOWER TO MID 20S FOR OUR FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION...BRISK NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW APPARENT T/S TO FALL
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE IN THE DGZ...EVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW GIVEN SUFFICIENT SATURATION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...POTENTIALLY
LASTING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS
AS THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY COLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SUB ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE. BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LIMITED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY WHEN
THE GFS INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY SPARKING
OFF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS SUFFICIENTLY TO THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A
SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER
WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED OFF THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...CONTINUED RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE ASSUMED TO COOL SLIGHTLY ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WAVE ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THERE/S TOO MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS TO PINPOINT WHERE THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL FALL...THUS WILL
RELY A GENERAL BLEND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...GENERALLY NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2-HIGHWAY 91.
ELSEWHERE MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ALL AREAS 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
926 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
NUDGED HIGHER POPS INTO FAR SOUTHERN WADENA COUNTY OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF POPS/WX...BUT KEPT THE
OVERALL TREND OF OVER 6 INCHES DOWN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT
INTO SD TODAY. WEB CAMS AND RADAR SHOW A DECENT BAND OF SNOW
CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS POSITION OF THE BEST 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS.
LOOKING AT THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...MODELS SHOW THERE IS A PERIOD TODAY WHERE BOTH
COINCIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE SOME
FAIRLY HIGH QPF VALUES OVER OUR FAR SOUTH...AND EVEN THE FURTHER
SOUTH GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND PUTTING 6
TO 8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HOP-WRF ALSO HAS A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT STILL
PUTTING OVER 6 INCHES AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GRANT COUNTY WITH AROUND 10 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL UPGRADE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
WARNING...ALTHOUGH FOR RICHLAND WILKIN WADENA AND OTTERTAIL IT
WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF THOSE COUNTIES.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THAT LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO EASTERN
MT/WESTERN ND...THE DRYING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...THINK THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST WITH VARIOUS REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE WEAK SHORT WAVES ALOFT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF SNOW...SO KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS GOING
FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THURSDAY BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN N AMERICA UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL RE-ENFORCE THE
ALREADY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS EXIST
AS TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ANY OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A BAND OF SNOW
SITS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD GET INTO
THE KFAR AREA LATE THIS MORNING BUT THINK THAT VIS WILL STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO DOWN THIS EVENING...AND
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ049.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ029>032-
040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
858 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA
AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL RADARS...THOUGH ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
AS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. WILL START TRIMMING OFF COUNTIES AS
SNOW ENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE FINAL BAND OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE BISMARCK
AREA. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIRE OF COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW IS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED BACK WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND REMAINING HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN (09 UTC)
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SNOWFALL AND PROJECTS A
CONTINUING DOWNWARD TREND...WITH SNOW EXITING THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES
SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON
AND JAMESTOWN.
AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA CONTINUES PUSHES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN ADDITION
TO COLD TEMPERATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL
READINGS NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A PERSISTENT COLD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLIDES ACROSS...AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...
WITH FRESH SNOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CAN EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES THERE AS CLOUDS DIMINISH AFTER THE STORM ENDS AND
CONTINUES THIS TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. AND WIND CHILLS THERE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY VALUES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MINS TO FALL TO 10 BELOW WITH ENOUGH WIND TO
GENERATE THE WIND CHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL TAPER OFF TODAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ048.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ040>047-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF POPS/WX...BUT KEPT THE
OVERALL TREND OF OVER 6 INCHES DOWN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT
INTO SD TODAY. WEB CAMS AND RADAR SHOW A DECENT BAND OF SNOW
CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS POSITION OF THE BEST 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS.
LOOKING AT THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...MODELS SHOW THERE IS A PERIOD TODAY WHERE BOTH
COINCIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE SOME
FAIRLY HIGH QPF VALUES OVER OUR FAR SOUTH...AND EVEN THE FURTHER
SOUTH GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND PUTTING 6
TO 8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HOP-WRF ALSO HAS A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT STILL
PUTTING OVER 6 INCHES AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GRANT COUNTY WITH AROUND 10 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL UPGRADE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
WARNING...ALTHOUGH FOR RICHLAND WILKEN WADENA AND OTTERTAIL IT
WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF THOSE COUNTIES.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THAT LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO EASTERN
MT/WESTERN ND...THE DRYING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...THINK THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST WITH VARIOUS REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE WEAK SHORT WAVES ALOFT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF SNOW...SO KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS GOING
FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THURSDAY BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN N AMERICA UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL RE-ENFORCE THE
ALREADY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS EXIST
AS TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ANY OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A BAND OF SNOW
SITS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD GET INTO
THE KFAR AREA LATE THIS MORNING BUT THINK THAT VIS WILL STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO DOWN THIS EVENING...AND
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ049.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ029>032-
040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE FINAL BAND OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE BISMARCK
AREA. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIRE OF COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW IS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED BACK WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND REMAINING HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN (09 UTC)
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SNOWFALL AND PROJECTS A
CONTINUING DOWNWARD TREND...WITH SNOW EXITING THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES
SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON
AND JAMESTOWN.
AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA CONTINUES PUSHES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN ADDITION
TO COLD TEMPERATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL
READINGS NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A PERSISTENT COLD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLIDES ACROSS...AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...
WITH FRESH SNOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CAN EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES THERE AS CLOUDS DIMINISH AFTER THE STORM ENDS AND
CONTINUES THIS TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. AND WIND CHILLS THERE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY VALUES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MINS TO FALL TO 10 BELOW WITH ENOUGH WIND TO
GENERATE THE WIND CHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL TAPER OFF TODAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ048.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ040>047-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
414 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW IS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED BACK WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND REMAINING HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN (09 UTC)
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SNOWFALL AND PROJECTS A
CONTINUING DOWNWARD TREND...WITH SNOW EXITING THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES
SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON
AND JAMESTOWN.
AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA CONTINUES PUSHES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN ADDITION
TO COLD TEMPERATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL
READINGS NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A PERSISTENT COLD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLIDES ACROSS...AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...
WITH FRESH SNOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CAN EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES THERE AS CLOUDS DIMINISH AFTER THE STORM ENDS AND
CONTINUES THIS TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. AND WIND CHILLS THERE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY VALUES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MINS TO FALL TO 10 BELOW WITH ENOUGH WIND TO
GENERATE THE WIND CHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER KDIK/KBIS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT KISN.
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND LOW CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...BUT THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR/VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ040>047-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NDZ033>035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE LAST PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60. A SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED
BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
LAST OF BENIGN NEAR TERM FORECASTS FOR AWHILE. ARDENT HEIGHT
RISES ACRS ONT/GRTLKS TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT MINOR PERTURBATIONS
LEADING TO SPRINKLES FARTHER NWD BY DAYBREAK. AMID A MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR HAVE DOUBLE DOWNED ON WARMER TREND OF
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...SELECTIVELY RAISING WRN/NWRN CWA THE
MOST PER RUC13 PROGGED 925MB THERMAL SURGE TO 12-13C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON HIR TEMPS...GIVEN DIURNAL CURVE
ALREADY FLATTENED OUT PRESENTLY AND MOST SIG WARMER WITH 24 HR
CHANGES ON ORDER OF LOWER TEENS F. INCRSG INSOLATION WITH MEAGER
COLUMN MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON/MIXING OUT TO NEAR 3KFT.
COHESIVE UPSTREAM TROFFING AS INTENSE INTERMOUNTAIN ENERGY
ARTFULLY ENVELOPED BY SHORTWAVE DESCENDING SWD THROUGH ALB/SASK.
INTENSE LEESIDE/PLAINS CYCLOGENETIC EFFECT AS INTENSE HFC ON
ORDER OF 150-200M/12HR DIVES SEWD FM SRN ID INTO CNTL ROCKIES
LATER TODAY. FRONTAL WAVE LOW EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTL LK MI BY 12
UTC TUE...WITH FALTERED/FAST GFS TIMING EXCLUDED. CONTD TREND OF
WARMER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HONED GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTD
MIXED BLYR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
NCEP MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER ON RAIN CHANCES WITH THE BEST
SUPPORT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 3 FOR TUESDAY. IN THIS REGARD...LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES A LITTLE TUESDAY...BUT KEPT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS.
KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN NAM/BUFKIT PROFILES THAT
INDICATED THERE ARE NO CLOUDS IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FOR NOW...
LEFT OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT THE OPTION TO
INTRODUCE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...VERY COLD AIR WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. MADE SOME MOSTLY MINOR UPDATES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY WITH A MARGINAL
FETCH...BUT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG AND DELTA T
VALUES AROUND 20C. KEPT TEMPERATURES COLD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BASED ON
MODEL GUIDANCE AND PAST CLIMATOLOGY. A SECOND EVEN COLDER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
NORTHERN INDIANA REMAINS IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR OF APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. PERIOD OF LLWS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
STRONG LLJ RAMPS UP. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
WILL ARRIVE AT KSBN LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AT KFWA BY THE VERY
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. BRIEF FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT WILL HOLD WITH HIGH END MVFR FOR
NOW GIVEN IT IS STILL ROUGHLY 24 HOURS AWAY AND CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING/IMPACTS IS NOT HIGH YET.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
249 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
20Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic mid and upper level
flow over North America. Within the flow, a shortwave was moving
across the central Rockies. A very strong cold front connected to
cold arctic air continues to push southeast through the forecast
area. From the 12Z TOP RAOB, a dry airmass was in place over the
forecast area this morning and there has been little moisture
advection into the area do to low level trajectories from the
southwestern U.S.
The forecast seems to be on track for tonight and have not made many
major changes to it. The one change was to remove any mention of
drizzle from the forecast. The low stratus deck has been slow to
move south with the front and current visible imagery shows the low
clouds lagging the front by 40 to 50 miles so the clouds should be
well removed from the frontal circulation. With strong downglide
progged by the models, think there will not be any vertical motion
for the formation of drizzle. The short term models however still
try to saturate mid levels just long enough for a narrow band of
light snow, mainly across central and western KS. The GFS actually
shows the better frontogenetical forcing, but it also has more dry
air between the forcing and the surface. Think this is the reason it
does not have any QPF. Therefore have maintained a slight chance for
light snow overnight. Limited moisture and duration of the forcing
with the mid level saturation suggests that flurries or a dusting is
most likely overnight. This forcing pushes east and south of the
area by Tuesday morning. Regarding the winds, models still show a
very strong pressure gradient behind the front and recent obs
indicate that 3 hr pressure rises of 5+ mb are occurring across
western KS. Therefore see no need to make any changes to the wind
advisory and will let the evening shift make any adjustments as needed.
Tuesday is on track to be much colder with persistent cold air
advection through the day. Think that skies should become mostly
sunny by the late morning, but do not think the insolation will have
a dramatic impact on daytime temps. Therefore have highs in the
lower and mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
Low level cold air advection slowly weakens with time Tuesday night
into Wednesday night. Confidence in high temps is somewhat higher
than for lows given good daytime mixing in the gusty north to
northwest winds and good model agreement. Cloud trends and how much
the mixing can persist into the night complicate the low temperature
forecast. Recent MOS output trending noticeably colder in recent runs
and have trended down, but haven`t gone quite as cold so far given
the CAA expected to keep some mixing in place Tuesday night and some
clouds persisting into Wednesday night as weak upper wave rotates
through the longwave trough.
Temperatures should modify slightly through the late week periods as
high pressure moves east, out of the Plains. ECMWF and GFS are
fairly consistent in bringing a modest upper wave east from the
Pacific and into the Central Plains around Saturday. With the
current front passing south through the southern states, moisture
availability will continue to be a challenge for this feature to
produce precipitation. There continues to be differences in this
wave`s strength and timing and that of another potential wave
coming south out of the Northern Rockies not far behind, but GFS
ensembles have trended wetter. Will continue with lower PoPs
Saturday into Saturday night with temperatures continuing to
support snow as the primary phase. Another cold shot looks to come
with this second wave for early next week and keep temps well
below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
Main concern is whether CIGS will come in below 3 KFT. RAP and NAM
forecast soundings show MVFR CIGS are likely. However the MOS
guidance keeps CIGS VFR for the most part and the stratus deck
across NEB appears to be eroding on the southern edge. Hard to go
against the forecast soundings, but will be monitoring obs
upstream to see how the stratus progresses. Fairly confident CIGS
will not go below 2 KFT. Timing of the FROPA is real close to the
prev forecast. And confidence in precip at the terminals is to low
to mention at this time. If there is any precip, it will likely be
flurries or light snow during the overnight hours with little if
any accumulation.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.
WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ010>012-022>024-
035>038-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EMERGE ONTO
THE PLAINS TODAY USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SEPARATES
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S FROM THOSE IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR OMAHA...FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW PEAK WIND
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE 35 TO 45KT RANGE. AN
ISOLATED GUST TO 50KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DO NOT THINK THE
WINDS WARRANT A WARNING. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST...BUT
LOOKING BACK AT PAST FRIDAY WHICH WAS SIMILARLY WINDY THERE WAS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BLOWING DUST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BEST FORCING ARRIVES THIS EVENING BUT BY THEN COLDER AND
MUCH DRYER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES...BUT BY 06Z IT SHOULD BE DONE. WARM GROUND WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALL IN ALL...EXPECTING AN
INCH OR LESS WITH BEST CHANCES IN EASTERN COLORADO.
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AFTER TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL START MOVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RESUME AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
850 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO VALUES THAT WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MST MON NOV 10 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MCK AND GLD ARE NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. BETWEEN 01-04Z A FEW
FLURRIES TO VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS THE AIRMASS
SATURATES AND THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT SINCE IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION. AFTER 06Z...WIND SPEEDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAISE AND
BREAK UP WITH A MUCH COLDER AND DRYER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FJS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1041 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
Early Monday morning, a vigorous short wave trough was quickly
diving southeast through Idaho with surface low pressure deepening
along the front range of the Rockies in Wyoming and Colorado, and
developing east into central Nebraska. A 40+ kt low level jet had
developed over eastern KS, and as this mixes out after sunrise,
parts of east central KS within the strongest pressure gradient
could see some wind gusts above 30 mph. The true surge of cold air
was becoming evident moving out of Montana and into Wyoming this
morning, and will continue to rapidly surge southeast through
tonight. In advance of the cold front, temperatures will warm up
nicely and by noon should be around 60 degrees. Much of the area
will continue to warm to near 70 through the afternoon, but the cold
front is expected to enter Republic county around 1 PM and pass
through Abilene, Manhattan, and Hiawatha by 4 PM. Temperatures will
almost immediately, and rather drastically, fall behind the front
while winds will increase through the afternoon. The post-frontal
pressure gradient is rather intense, as is the airmass density
difference, and see a good chance for winds to exceed wind advisory
criteria (sustained 30 mph, gusts 45 mph) especially northwest of a
Council Grove to Holton line. Wind fields seem a bit stronger in
these areas overall and frontal passage during the afternoon should
promote slightly stronger gusts...but it will be windy behind the
front regardless of your location and there is some chance for
advisory criteria to be met farther southeast as well. Will let the
day shift address these areas if needed as the cold front
approaches. Temperatures will continue to fall through the night
into the 20s.
Regarding precipitation, the overall chances for anything more than
sprinkles or flurries remain quite low. There is plenty of lift
immediately along the front, but very limited moisture to work with.
Any saturation looks to occur above the fairly shallow front, around
3000 feet, with dry air below limiting drizzle potential. Could
still see a few light rain showers associated with the front though,
with potential increasing slightly into east central KS. Of a bit
more interest is a band of mid level frontogenesis well behind the
front that is forecast to align with a bit of moisture in the
dendritic growth zone. This relatively narrow zone of lift and
limited moisture may be sufficient to develop a band of light snow
mainly north of a Council Grove to Lawrence line between midnight
and 6 AM. While some models produce QPF in this period and others do
not, even the "dry" models indicate this band of enhanced
lift/moisture. If this does result in light snow at the surface, the
band would translate eastward fairly quickly and little more than a
dusting of snow on grassy/elevated surfaces would be expected.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
By Tuesday morning, models show a mid-level low closing off over
Montana and North Dakota with a deep, broad trough in place across the
western two-thirds of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure will
come spilling into the Northern and Central Plains behind Monday`s
frontal passage. While models show the closed-off mid-level low
shifting eastward across the Great Lakes region and further to the
northeast by the latter part of the week, the broad mid-level trough
feature will still be in place through much of the week with the
forecast area remaining under the influence of surface high
pressure. Behind Monday`s frontal passage, breezy northerly winds
will persist through the day on Tuesday, resulting in strong CAA and
high temperatures only reaching into the mid/upper 30s, which is
actually closer to what the average low temperatures are for this time
of year. As the surface high strengthens over the region mid-week,
expect the coolest conditions to occur Wednesday into Thursday as
persistent CAA from the northerly winds continue to reinforce the
cold airmass in place. The development of some mid-level clouds on
Wednesday will further hinder temperatures with highs only expected
to reach into the upper 20s to low/mid 30s. Low temperatures through
the week will be frigid with readings in the teens and 20s. As the
surface high gradually shifts eastward over the area by the end of
the week into the weekend, expect a very slight increase in
temperatures as highs may get into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees by this weekend. However, there are notable model
discrepancies in the weekend forecast as models seem to be struggling with
the evolution of the next mid-level trough that should dive into the
central U.S. during the Friday through Sunday time frame. There are
significant differences in the timing and tracking of this trough,
which are resulting in variations in the forecast temperatures and
potential for precipitation. While models agree that this advancing
trough will help to push a cold front through the region sometime on
Saturday, there are discrepancies with if and where any
precipitation may develop. Also, with the GFS/GEM models trending
warmer than the ECMWF for this weekend, these temperature
discrepancies result in uncertainty in what the precipitation type
would be if any light precipitation developed across the region on
Saturday. As a result, have gone with a chance for rain and snow on
Saturday with a slight chance for snow Saturday night before drying
out for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
Main concern is whether CIGS will come in below 3 KFT. RAP and NAM
forecast soundings show MVFR CIGS are likely. However the MOS
guidance keeps CIGS VFR for the most part and the stratus deck
across NEB appears to be eroding on the southern edge. Hard to go
against the forecast soundings, but will be monitoring obs
upstream to see how the stratus progresses. Fairly confident CIGS
will not go below 2 KFT. Timing of the FROPA is real close to the
prev forecast. And confidence in precip at the terminals is to low
to mention at this time. If there is any precip, it will likely be
flurries or light snow during the overnight hours with little if
any accumulation.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.
WIND ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to Midnight CST tonight
FOR KSZ010>012-022>024-035>038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1226 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY WITH WRLY FLOW THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO ID/WY. IR LOOP INDICATED COLDER CLOUD
TOPS EXPANDING FROM SD INTO MN IN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 130 KNOT 300 MB JET FROM
NRN MN EASTWARD INTO NRN ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER NRN
SPREADING INTO WRN MN WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG IENTROPIC LIFT AND
800-600 MB FGEN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES EXTENDED FROM SE WY INTO WRN
NEBRASKA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST THROUGH SRN IA INTO NRN
IL. WITH WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...THE
LINGERING LES HAD DISSIPATED.
TODAY...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO UPPER MI WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINING OVER THE SW BY AROUND 15Z AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. GIVEN THE VERY VIGOROUS
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...800-600 MB FGEN AND
290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED HIGHER THROUGH 00Z/TUE
WITH AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.4-0.6 INCH RANGE. WITH SLR VALUES IN THE
12/1-15/1 RANGE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY ALREADY APPROACH OR
EXCEED 5 TO 7 INCHES BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE INITIAL WAA/FGEN SURGE OF SNOW INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE FROM
ESC SOUTHWARD...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
REGIONAL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 850-700 MB WARMING WITH
TEMPS TO NEAR 1C FOR SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER THE S AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SINCE THE NAM REMAINED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODELS
ENVELOP...EXPECT ANY SLEET TO BE MARGINAL COMPARED TO THE SNOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
OVER THE NW HALF...MODERATE TO STRONG FGEN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE. IN PARTICULAR...THE INCREASING NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST SNOW RATES WHERE UPSLOPE IS STRONGEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE INCREASING NE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL ALSO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
...FOCUS LARGELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE IN TODAY..
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY WITH THE TRACK/SPEED/INTENSITY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. GENERAL MODEL
TRENDS ARE FOR A DEEPER LOW THAT MOVES FARTHER NW. LEANING TOWARD
THE WELL AGREED ON TIMING OF THE THE 00Z/10 GFS AND 00Z/10 REGIONAL
GEM WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT THINK THE TRACK IS TOO FAR TO THE NW /A
COMMON BIAS IN THE NAM/...BUT ALSO THINK THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
TOO FAR SE WITH THE TRACK. NAM AND GEM MODELS SHOW THE 1000MB SFC
LOW OVER NCENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z TUE...MOVING TO NRN LAKE
MI/FAR NWRN LOWER MI AT 998MB AT 18Z...JUST E OF UPPER MI AT 998MB
AT 00Z WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NE TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT AND MANY ASPECTS THAT WILL PLAY INTO SFC
CYCLOGENESIS...TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z/10 GFS IS ABOUT 6
HOURS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT WILL NOT BE ADOPTING THAT
SHIFT GIVEN THAT IT IS NOW THE FASTEST GUIDANCE. THE 12Z/09 IS ON
THE SLOWEST END OF GUIDANCE WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. WILL FAVOR A BROAD BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM. OF
COURSE...THAT IS JUST THE SFC FEATURES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
BE JUST SW OF THE CWA AT 12Z TUE AS IT ROTATES AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER ND OR MT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY TUE MORNING...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT E TOWARD AND INTO
THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED AND MAGNITUDE
OF THAT SHIFT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND AS THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS QUICKLY NE.
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT MORE THAN JUST THE
OBVIOUS AXIS OF GREATER QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIP TYPE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK. THE MORE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS AN
ABOVE FREEZING WARM NOSE AT AROUND 850MB TO NEAR MENOMINEE...SO
MIXED PRECIP MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THERE. OF
COURSE...DUE TO TRACK DISCREPENCIES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR. IF THE NAM/GEM TRACK
VERIFIED...MUCH MORE OF SERN/ERN UPPER MI WILL SEE MIXED PRECIP
EARLY TUE.
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -6C FAR E TO -12C W AND ENE LOW LEVEL
FLOW /PER FAVORED GUIDANCE/ AT 12Z...COOLING TO -10C E TO -15C W
WITH MORE NLY WINDS BY 00Z WED...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
ASSURED. BEST AREAS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON TUE WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL U.P. AND NEAR IRONWOOD AND THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW BACKS FAR ENOUGH N TO IMPACT
THESE WRN AREAS. OF COURSE...LAKE ENHANCED AREAS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER QPF THAN IS REPRESENTED BY LARGE SCALE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE NNW-NW WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -15C...AND LAKE INDUCED EQL
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10KFT BY WED MORNING.
HAVE QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.25
INCHES AT MENOMINEE TO 1.15 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
HURON MOUNTAINS. HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR ARE
FORECAST TO SEE BETWEEN 0.70 AND 0.90 INCHES OF QPF...WITH AROUND AN
INCH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ON TUE
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN UPPER MI AT AROUND 15 TO 1. NCENTRAL UPPER
MI SHOULD SEE 12-13 TO 1 RATIOS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE WARMER AIR WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 12-15 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR...13-18 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AROUND A FOOT ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES AT MENOMINEE DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS AND
AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH RAIN EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE ON TUE AS N-NE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
NW WIND LES WILL CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON THU...PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO LES. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED PLENTY OF
REFINING...HAVE SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS
FOR WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. AM NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIP AMOUNTS
FOR THU /DUE TO LACK OF HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME/ TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT AT LEAST A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
SEE NO END OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO THE COLDER TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD STAY BELOW -10C THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL
FAVOR LES WHEN MOISTURE AND WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS ALLOW. LOOKS LIKE
LES WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. LES
THEN MAY RAMP UP AGAIN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014
PROLONGED LIFR/VLIFR EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT WITH INCRSG
GUSTY WINDS CAUSING BLSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SE WI TONIGHT AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF GALES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE NE GALES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD
NRLY BY LATE TUE INTO TUE EVENING. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>004-007-013-014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1007 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...SUSTAINED AND MAX GUSTS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SLIGHT MASSAGING OF QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING ON AN HOURLY AND MAXIMUM BASIS.
.DISCUSSION...AFTER A COOL MORNING, THE WARMING TRANSITION IS WELL
UNDERWAY AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY H925 WINDS ADVECT WARMER AIR
INTO AND OVER THE REGION DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE COUPLED WITH 14-17C H925 TEMPS
PROGGED BY THE RAP WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY
THROUGH LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLATEAU IN THE MID TO SOME
UPPER 70S WEST AND LOW 70S IN THE EAST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG MIXING WILL PROMOTE PERIODIC WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 MPH AND PERIODIC GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 MPH. WIND WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WHILE
STRATUS BUILDS IN, BOTH ACTING TO KEEPING US MUCH WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. A FEW LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT GLH/GWO
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS FROM 18-23KTS
POSSIBLE AT GLH/GWO. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE REGION UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDAWN READINGS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FOR TODAY WE MAY GET SOME EARLY MORNING SPOTTY GROUND FOG IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND NEAR WATER SOURCES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS OR ZONES. WITH DRY AIR AROUND EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOW. A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...BUT COOLING DOWN TO MAINLY THE 40S ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BIG CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SUB 1000MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER OK/TX AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
START TO THE WORK WEEK FOR TODAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS COULD GET AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN THE DELTA.
INFLOW OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING STRATUS
OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY, A POTENT TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED NW OF THE REGION TUES MORNING AND ENTER NW DELTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWATS WILL INCREASE UPWARDS TO ~1.3" AND COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS LOOK MEAGER GIVEN REDUCED FORCING AND
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY MODEL OUTPUT
AND HI RES WRF GUIDANCE. FEEL MOST PLACES WILL BE LUCKY TO GET A
QUARTER INCH. TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME
AS A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPS AND POPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO CONSALL GUIDANCE.
/17/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE COLDER THE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN OCCURRENCES. COME WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BE POST FRONTAL AND LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS
IS RATHER DRY AND FAST IN ENDING THE LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR CWA. A MUCH
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL OR
SLIGHTLY BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS LOW RAIN
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A RESULT.
THURSDAY MORNING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WHILE >1040MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
A NORTH WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER OUR CWA AND PROVIDE MIXING THAT
WILL HINDER RADIATIVE COOLING. DESPITE THIS...CAA WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES SOUTHEAST. BY
FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF OUR
REGION AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY RESULTING IN WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH NEAR CALM
SURFACE WINDS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY MORNING. RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SOUTH TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE
END OF THE GROWING SEASON DRAWS NEAR BUT PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
REMAINING TENDER VEGETATION FROM THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
TAKEN. NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL COME UNDER NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WHILE THE STOUT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON TIMING OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
HELPS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL HELP
SEND MOISTURE OUR WAY AND LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEMS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
RAIN MOVES IN BUT NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS PERHAPS LOWER THAN USUAL
FOR THE DAY SEVEN PERIOD AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING
OFF A LOW OVER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER
AND DEEPER WITH ANOTHER LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 75 54 75 48 / 0 8 17 29
MERIDIAN 74 49 74 50 / 0 8 12 23
VICKSBURG 76 57 76 45 / 0 9 22 29
HATTIESBURG 74 52 77 56 / 0 6 6 14
NATCHEZ 76 59 76 48 / 0 9 16 28
GREENVILLE 73 57 70 41 / 0 13 32 27
GREENWOOD 75 55 71 41 / 0 9 30 31
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/15/17/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 70N LATITUDE WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND BUILD TO NEAR 1052 MB TUESDAY ACROSS ALBERTA. THIS HIGH
WILL BUILD SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEK PRODUCING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE FALL
IS SLOWING DOWN. STILL MOST AREAS WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH REPORTS AND HIGHWAY CAMS
ARE SHOWING SNOW IS LIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOT OF DRY HAVING
TO BE OVERCOME FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. ADDITIONAL SNOW
FALLING NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER AS THE VORTEX SPINS ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WILL FALL TO AROUND 1
MILE...MAINLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THE SOUTHERN BAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT MAYBE A DUSTING TO TENTH
OR TWO AT MOST. THE SECONDARY SWATH OF SNOW WILL ALSO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS...NEAR
AN INCH...AS LIFT IS A LITTLE STRONGER. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION...A
WARM GROUND WILL HELP LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION ALTHOUGH COULD CAUSE
SOME PATCHES OF ICE ON ROADS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL JUST BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH KCDR AND KIEN AROUND 08Z. ZL/LIGHT
ZR WAS REPORTED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF THE FRONT AT KRAP AND KPHP
AT 08Z. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN
WY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN NEB AND SRN SD WHICH WOULD BRUSH
THE NRN ZONES WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH AND INDICATIONS IN THE RAP MODEL ARE THE FORCING WOULD BE
GREATEST ACROSS NWRN NEB FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING ACROSS SCNTL SD
LATE THIS MORNING AND RESTRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE MODELS SHOW A SOLID AREA OF SUPER-COOLED LIQUID ACROSS NRN NEB
BEFORE THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH. THE RAP MODELS SHOWS THIS COULD
LAST UP TO 6 HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS VALENTINE BEFORE TEMPS ALOFT
COOL AND SEEDER-FEEDER SNOW GROWTH TAKES OVER AROUND 18Z.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS READY TO GO TODAY IF NEEDED... ACROSS
THE NRN COUNTIES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...NWRN NEB AND WYOMING
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. GREY BULL WY...GUST TO 65 MPH AT 839Z
SUGGESTING A POWERHOUSE IS HEADING OUR WAY. MODEL CONSENSUS WINDS
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS WERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. READINGS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH 20S TO NEAR 30 ELSEWHERE. THE
STRONG WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY THE MODELS TRANSLATE
TO WIND CHILL READING NEAR ZERO IN SHERIDAN COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH FLURRIES
TO FOLLOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET WITH READINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OF -16C OR COLDER BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY CONTINUE TREND DOWNWARD...THE
FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE 2M NAM
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. THIS BLEND SUGGESTS HIGHS OF ONLY THE MID
TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS...AND LOWER TO MID 20S FOR OUR FAR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION...BRISK NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW APPARENT T/S TO FALL
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE IN THE DGZ...EVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW GIVEN SUFFICIENT SATURATION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...POTENTIALLY
LASTING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS
AS THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY COLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SUB ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE. BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LIMITED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY WHEN
THE GFS INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY SPARKING
OFF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS SUFFICIENTLY TO THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A
SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER
WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED OFF THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...CONTINUED RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE ASSUMED TO COOL SLIGHTLY ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WAVE ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THERE/S TOO MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS TO PINPOINT WHERE THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL FALL...THUS WILL
RELY A GENERAL BLEND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH THE
HIGH PLAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD FRONT INTO
KANSAS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD
CIGS GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
NORTH OF KLBF...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF FLURRY IS POSSIBLE AT KLBF. THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT OVERNIGHT WITH THE SNOW ENDING FROM SW TO
NE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL DROP
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TO A MILE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACCOMPANIES THE WARM AIR. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY A
THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND AT LEAST
INITIALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND ALSO
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THERE WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER DRY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF A LARGE BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES...ACROSS
NORTHERN IL BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAST THE SOO BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT REALLY DEEPENING MUCH IF AT ALL TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
WILL REMAIN THERE AND NOT SPREAD SOUTH MUCH. THE RESULT IS A
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.20 OR 0.30 AND NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS SOME ISSUES
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CREATES A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK INLAND.
WILL DISCOUNT THIS. LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWS NOTHING
AS WELL GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL START OF
WITH A STANDARD DECREASING TREND AND THEN INCREASE TEMPERATURES
TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 45KTS NEAR
3000FT....SCRAPE AWAY AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SELECT
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30KT RANGE
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DEEP UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS SSW AND NOT IDEAL
FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT.
FOR TUESDAY...VETERANS DAY LOOKS ABOUT AS NICE AS YOU CAN GET FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH NOT RECORD SETTING...MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S...MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS AND A LITTLE LOWER NEAR THE LAKES. ONLY
PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY FOR FAR WESTERN NY.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG EITHER...WITH MOST
GUSTS GENERALLY ABOUT 30 MPH OR LESS. THE IMMANENT COLD FRONT WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY EVENING
WILL LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING WILL START OFF
UNSEASONABLY WARM...BUT THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ABRUPTLY COLDER AIR.
NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF CONSENSUS TIMING BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM W-E IN THE 06Z TO 15Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT WILL
BE FURTHER FROM LAKE MOISTURE AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE.
FOLLOWING AN INITIAL BURST OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY OR DROP OFF GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S. PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT SHOULD BE RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY...AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS OFFSET BY LAKE
INDUCED CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO -5C
TO -8C. EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE LAKES...WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MORE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THE KEY FEATURE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE STILL IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE. ALTHOUGH THIS MAKES THE
SPECIFICS HARD TO PIN DOWN...THERE ARE SOME THINGS GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE UPON. WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY A MODEST SPREAD IN GUIDANCE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
WHEN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE BECOMES KEY. THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL DISRUPT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE FAIRLY DRY ORIGINS...BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -10C TO -12C AND INCREASE LAKE
INSTABILITY. ALSO...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE MODEST AND WELL ALIGNED
FROM 06Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THU OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ABOUT 6
HOURS LATER ON LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR A
SINGULAR LAKE BAND WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD
JUST SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS
BAND MAY FORM IS STILL SUBJECT TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS THE TUG
HILL. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE BUFFALO AND/OR ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.
QPF GUIDANCE OF LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES A GOOD
STARTING POINT FOR THIS...BUT CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON LAKE
EFFECT BANDS SO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE. IT IS
POSSIBLE ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED IN A LOCALIZED
BAND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/POSITION/OCCURRENCE LEAVES FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FAR SHY OF THE 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD. WILL CONTINUE TO
DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BANDING IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
SIMPLY BE CHILLY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL WELL SHORT OF SETTING ANY
RECORDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM) DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL
HAPPEN WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. IN GENERAL...THE STEADIEST SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TRADITIONAL LAKE BELTS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...BUT EXPECT
INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED
MULTI-BANDED LAKE SNOWS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE AGREES THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL EAST OF
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT
IN DRIER AIR...BUT WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND
-10C...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE BUT ON A MORE LOCALIZED BASIS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SSW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF/WHEN/WHERE
SNOW WOULD DEVELOP WITH LAKE ENHANCED BANDS DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH A GENERIC CHANCE POP FORECAST
FOR NOW.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF CIGS AT
TIMES IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT ALL WELL OVER 5000FT.
SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF
A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA AND
SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED TO DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE 18Z CYCLE.
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL NY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES.
LOCAL LAKE SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON LAKE ERIE...BUT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE
GREATER WAVE ACTION IN CANADIAN WATERS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON LAKE ONTARIO
INITIAL EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AT THE NORTHEAST END...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE GREATER WAVE
ACTION TO REMAIN IN CANADIAN WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKES AS COLD AIR RUSHES BACK INTO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
259 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACCOMPANIES THE WARM AIR. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY A
THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND AT LEAST
INITIALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND ALSO
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THERE WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER DRY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF A LARGE BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES...ACROSS
NORTHERN IL BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAST THE SOO BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT REALLY DEEPENING MUCH IF AT ALL TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
WILL REMAIN THERE AND NOT SPREAD SOUTH MUCH. THE RESULT IS A
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.20 OR 0.30 AND NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS SOME ISSUES
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CREATES A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK INLAND.
WILL DISCOUNT THIS. LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWS NOTHING
AS WELL GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL START OF
WITH A STANDARD DECREASING TREND AND THEN INCREASE TEMPERATURES
TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 45KTS NEAR
3000FT....SCRAPE AWAY AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SELECT
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30KT RANGE
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DEEP UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS SSW AND NOT IDEAL
FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT.
FOR TUESDAY...VETERANS DAY LOOKS ABOUT AS NICE AS YOU CAN GET FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH NOT RECORD SETTING...MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S...MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS AND A LITTLE LOWER NEAR THE LAKES. ONLY
PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY FOR FAR WESTERN NY.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG EITHER...WITH MOST
GUSTS GENERALLY ABOUT 30 MPH OR LESS. THE IMMANENT COLD FRONT WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN SHARPLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC SOURCED AIR BEGINS TO POUR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHERE THE OFFICIAL
HIGHS MAY OCCUR RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION. AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THE RANGE OF -10C TO -12C WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LAKE
EFFECT FORM EAST OF THE LAKES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHARPLY
COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME LOW 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE SHORES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NEAR 1040+MB ARCTIC SOURCED SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. INITIALLY THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE
NAEFS AS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY DAY AND DROP INTO THE 20S BY
NIGHT WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF MID TO LATE DECEMBER.
WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A SURE BET THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST IS A BIT MORE MURKY AS 00Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE AND 500MB PATTERNS. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS MORE
FAVORABLE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHIFTS A
SYNOPTIC SURFACE WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THURS/FRI THEN DEVELOPING INTO
A NOR`EASTER OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW WITH POSSIBLY SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND
BOTH SOLUTIONS WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE AT EXTREME
LEVELS WITH 850MB TEMPS LOWERING BELOW -10C AND NAM/GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES SHOW DECENT SURFACE TO 700MB MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SYNOPTIC OMEGA INTERSECTING THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW.
BY LATER SATURDAY THE REMNANT ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE SNOWS. SUNDAY THERE IS
SOME HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT MAYBE 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF CIGS AT
TIMES IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT ALL WELL OVER 5000FT.
SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF
A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA AND
SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED TO DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE 18Z CYCLE.
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL NY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOCAL
LAKE SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON LAKE ERIE...BUT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE
GREATER WAVE ACTION IN CANADIAN WATERS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON LAKE ONTARIO
INITIAL EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AT THE NORTHEAST END...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE GREATER WAVE
ACTION TO REMAIN IN CANADIAN WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKES AS COLD AIR RUSHES BACK INTO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
POTENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTING INTO SW MN ATTM. IN ITS WAKE RADAR RETURNS
DIMINISHING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH IMPROVED
VSBY AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION HAVE DROPPED
ADVISORY/WARNING FOR SARGENT AND RANSOM COUNTIES. WILL REVISIT
REMAINING HEADLINES AT NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE CLOUDS THINNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
NUDGED HIGHER POPS INTO FAR SOUTHERN WADENA COUNTY OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF POPS/WX...BUT KEPT THE
OVERALL TREND OF OVER 6 INCHES DOWN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT
INTO SD TODAY. WEB CAMS AND RADAR SHOW A DECENT BAND OF SNOW
CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS POSITION OF THE BEST 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS.
LOOKING AT THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...MODELS SHOW THERE IS A PERIOD TODAY WHERE BOTH
COINCIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE SOME
FAIRLY HIGH QPF VALUES OVER OUR FAR SOUTH...AND EVEN THE FURTHER
SOUTH GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND PUTTING 6
TO 8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HOP-WRF ALSO HAS A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT STILL
PUTTING OVER 6 INCHES AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GRANT COUNTY WITH AROUND 10 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL UPGRADE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
WARNING...ALTHOUGH FOR RICHLAND WILKIN WADENA AND OTTERTAIL IT
WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF THOSE COUNTIES.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THAT LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO EASTERN
MT/WESTERN ND...THE DRYING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...THINK THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST WITH VARIOUS REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE WEAK SHORT WAVES ALOFT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF SNOW...SO KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS GOING
FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THURSDAY BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN N AMERICA UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL RE-ENFORCE THE
ALREADY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS EXIST
AS TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ANY OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
COMPLEX CLOUD SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLEARING OVER
N CNTRL ND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MVFR CIGS OVER WRN
ONTARIO AND SE MANITOBA SLIDE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT TO SEE GFK AND DVL
CLEAR OUT EARLY IN TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUDS OVER MB MOVING INTO THOSE
TAF AREAS LATE THIS EVENING...GFK FIRST FOLLOWED BY DVL. TVF WILL
HALF SOME BRIEF CLEARING BUT WILL SEE THE CANADIAN CIGS COME IN A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO GFK. LESS CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH BJI AND FAR WILL
CLEAR OUT TODAY. MID CLOUDS OVER SRN HALF OF ND AND ACROSS
SD...ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF SNOW WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY MOSTLY
INTO MN...WILL KEEP AT LEAST MID CLOUDS OVER FAR/BJI BUT THE DRIER
AIR MAY AT LEAST ERODE THE MVFR DECK OVER FAR (VFR CIG REMAINING) IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP VFR CIGS OVER THESE TWO SITES
MOST OF THE NIGHT BECMG MVFR BY MORNING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
BJI AREAS AS WELL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ053.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ029>032-
040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1215 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE
AREA...AND CALLS TO SOME SPOTTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY VERIFY THIS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED ALL WINTER HEADLINES
AS EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER ONE INCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA
AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL RADARS...THOUGH ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
AS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. WILL START TRIMMING OFF COUNTIES AS
SNOW ENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE FINAL BAND OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE BISMARCK
AREA. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIRE OF COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW IS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED BACK WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND REMAINING HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN (09 UTC)
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SNOWFALL AND PROJECTS A
CONTINUING DOWNWARD TREND...WITH SNOW EXITING THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES
SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON
AND JAMESTOWN.
AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA CONTINUES PUSHES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN ADDITION
TO COLD TEMPERATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL
READINGS NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A PERSISTENT COLD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SLIDES ACROSS...AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...
WITH FRESH SNOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CAN EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES THERE AS CLOUDS DIMINISH AFTER THE STORM ENDS AND
CONTINUES THIS TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. AND WIND CHILLS THERE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY VALUES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MINS TO FALL TO 10 BELOW WITH ENOUGH WIND TO
GENERATE THE WIND CHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME PERIODS OF SNOW WHILE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SOME THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER NEW
SNOWFALL...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE HOW WIDESPREAD THE
COVERAGE IS BEFORE MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1142 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT A BAND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SO ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK FINE. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE WY/NE BORDER. ARCTIC AIR
IS ALSO MARCHING SOUTHWARD...AND PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ALONG
THE RESULTANT FRONTOGENETIC BAND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR
THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION IS ALL SNOW...BUT FZRA AND UP HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ALONG A LINE FROM KRAP TO KPHP TO KPIR TO KHON.
THEREFORE...LEFT THE MENTION OF FZRA IN THROUGH 12Z...AFTER WHICH
MODELS SHOW ANY LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY. SNOW HAS BEEN COMPACTING THIS MORNING...LIKELY DUE
TO A WARM GROUND...SO DID DECREASE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL VALUES
SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL THE WARNING/ADVISORY HEADLINES REMAIN
SUFFICIENT...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. COLD AIR WILL
THEN FOLLOW. LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...SINCE CLOUD COVER AND AT
LEAST LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN A FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...DID TREND TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LONG TERM BEING MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WITH SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR
COMING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE NEW SNOW COVER...IT WILL BE
EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE
FROM 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SEVERAL OF THE NIGHTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SOME LOWS WERE COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH FALLING SNOW. WINDS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY WITH GUST EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN IMPROVING VISIBILITIES...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-POTTER-
WALWORTH.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-CLARK-
CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT A BAND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SO ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK FINE. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE WY/NE BORDER. ARCTIC AIR
IS ALSO MARCHING SOUTHWARD...AND PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ALONG
THE RESULTANT FRONTOGENETIC BAND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR
THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION IS ALL SNOW...BUT FZRA AND UP HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ALONG A LINE FROM KRAP TO KPHP TO KPIR TO KHON.
THEREFORE...LEFT THE MENTION OF FZRA IN THROUGH 12Z...AFTER WHICH
MODELS SHOW ANY LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY. SNOW HAS BEEN COMPACTING THIS MORNING...LIKELY DUE
TO A WARM GROUND...SO DID DECREASE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL VALUES
SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL THE WARNING/ADVISORY HEADLINES REMAIN
SUFFICIENT...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. COLD AIR WILL
THEN FOLLOW. LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...SINCE CLOUD COVER AND AT
LEAST LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN A FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...DID TREND TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LONG TERM BEING MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WITH SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR
COMING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE NEW SNOW COVER...IT WILL BE
EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE
FROM 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SEVERAL OF THE NIGHTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SOME LOWS WERE COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND END INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
END AT MBG AND PIR FIRST AND THEN ABR AND ATY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE CEILINGS WILL RISE AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-POTTER-
WALWORTH.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-CLARK-
CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
403 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Veterans Day)
MUCH colder temperatures for tomorrow as an Arctic blast moves
through tonight.
Currently, we have breezy southwest winds across the area with
temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold
front is just making its way into the TX panhandle, and is on
track to move into our counties right around midnight tonight if
it continues at its current speed. Latest RUC data shows the front
moving into the Haskell/Throckmorton County area between 11 PM and
Midnight. And if the front does differ on timing, it will likely
be earlier considering how cold/dense this air mass is. Regardless
of the exact timing of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 30
degrees colder tomorrow. The temperature forecast itself only
required minor changes. And although sustained winds along the
front are currently 30-40 mph, with gusts over 50 mph, we do not
expect winds quite that strong as it moves through our area.
Surface pressure rises are currently around 20 millibars/6 hours
along the nose of the front as it moves south through eastern
Colorado/western Kansas. By the time the front is in our area,
these pressure rises will be spread laterally along the front, and
weaken to a max of around 15 mb/6 hours. So, we will see mainly 20
to 30 mph with higher gusts immediately along the front, and
weaken to 10 to 20 mph throughout the day Tuesday.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s along and north of I-20
tonight where the front will have time to cool things off, with
mainly lower 40s elsewhere. Along and south of Interstate 10 where
the front will not have much time to cool things, lows will be in
the upper 40s to near 50. On Tuesday, temperatures will remain in
the 40s for most of the day, but there will be a lot of sun to
fight the cold air advection, and so areas along and south of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line should be able to manage highs in
the lower to mid 50s. There may be a few clouds right along the
front as it moves through, but skies should remain mostly clear
other than that.
20
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night)
Plan for temperatures overnight Tuesday night to fall into mainly
the 22 to 30 range across West Central Texas.
Surface winds from the north Tuesday night will bring much colder
and drier air into West Central Texas. This inflow of cold arctic
air will likely bring the first freeze to all of West Central
Texas. We have extended the Freeze Watch to include all our
counties. However, we decided to just continue a watch for now,
given confidence issues regarding how far south the freeze will
go. Model data this run indicate temperatures will be some 5 to 7
degrees colder this period than the previous model data the
midnight shift used last night.
(Wednesday)
Expect much colder than normal temperatures Wednesday.
Winds from the north will continue to bring cold arctic air into
West Central Texas Wednesday. Models indicate winds will not be as
strong Wednesday; nevertheless, surface cold air advection will
continue, as surface high pressure builds over the region. Models
this cycle presented temperatures numbers very close to numbers from
our previous package. So, we didn`t make any major changes here.
Highs mainly in the 40s still look likely for all areas, except
perhaps our Interstate 10 corridor, where highs will likely be
around 50.
(Wednesday night)
Freezing temperatures look likely again around sunrise Thursday
morning.
Models this cycle present colder lows for this period than the
previous run. With light surface winds from the north continuing
into Wednesday night, lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s look
reasonable. So, we did adjust numbers down a few degrees from our
previous numbers for this period.
(Thursday)
Surface winds from the north will shift during the day, and by
Thursday afternoon, surface winds will be from the east. East
winds are up-slope for our area. Thus, highs Thursday in the 40s
look best.
(Thursday night through Friday night)
A warming trend dominates these periods, as surface winds from the
southeast and south return. In response to another cold front,
highs on Friday will be mainly in the 55 to 60 range; that`s much
closer to seasonal normals.
(Saturday through Monday)
Another cold front and associated upper-level system may bring
cold temperatures and perhaps additional rain to West Central
Texas. Confidence still is not real high regarding where and when
rain may occur. The GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement this
cycle, with neither developing any closed circulation aloft during
the Saturday to Saturday night periods. So, with confidence not
high, numbers and Pops close to a blend of models look reasonable.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 37 48 24 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 5
San Angelo 41 52 25 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 5
Junction 47 54 31 50 29 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...STRONG DRY AND WARM WESTERLY COMPONENT
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AS SURFACE LOW EDGES
FURTHER SOUTH AND GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. WE ARE HITTING A FEW
MINUTES OF RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA THOUGH
LATEST ERC LEVELS INDICATE A MORE MARGINAL THREAT. THEN...A STIFF
BLUE NORTHER WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATE
THIS EVENING CAUSING A VERY DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS. AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW A LINE OF BLOWING DUST IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
COMING OFF SOURCE REGIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL POSE A BIG RISK FOR BLOWING DUST TONIGHT BUT WE
HAVE ADDED SOME MENTION OF DUST FOR IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT. AND WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LATEST HRRR TRENDS SUPPORT PASSAGE AT KCDS BY 03Z AND KLBB BY 05Z
WHILE ALSO SHOWING STRONGER SPEEDS FURTHER WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. FREEZE
WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT REMAIN APPROPRIATE.
HIGHEST SURFACE PRESSURES WILL REMAIN NORTH ON TUESDAY AND THE COLD
AIR PLUNGE WILL NOT ABATE. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL RELENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED
EARLY TUESDAY. FOR THIS AND MORE SUMMER WILL BE MISSED. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL RUDELY PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TRICKY...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SPLIT IN DEVELOPING A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SHOULD
THIS MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT SUPPRESSED...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. OPTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS
THIS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT OVERALL DID NOT MAKE MANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. BY SATURDAY...RECOVERING
SURFACE WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S...BUT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT IS SET TO PLUNGE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. THE NATURE OF
THIS SECOND COLD SURGE IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY KIND OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...AS
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO CLING TO ITS DEPICTION OF A
STRONGER...WETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME. EVEN
WITH THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF SCENARIOS...THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY
WILL PASS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND WOULD LIKELY
NOT RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH THE FROPA
EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH TRENDS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO LOOK DRIER AND DRIER. IN FACT...THE
LATEST ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS ALL BUT ABANDONED ITS DEPICTION
OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH
ISNT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION SEEMED TO
BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 41 18 30 17 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 24 40 19 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 25 41 20 30 19 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 27 43 22 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 28 42 22 33 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 30 48 24 36 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 29 45 24 34 22 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 32 43 21 35 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 32 45 22 33 23 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 35 47 26 36 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-037>044.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031-033>037-039>041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034.
&&
$$
05/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SYNOPTIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB LOW CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING DECENT SATURATION IN A DEEP LAYER...MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
NAMNEST/WRFNMM/WRFARW MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO
BACK OFF WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE GIVEN HRRR SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS TONIGHT...WITH HIGH POPS TUESDAY
MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS TUESDAY...CONTINUED MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOWER POPS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PERHAPS 1/2 TO 1 INCH. MOST OTHER AREAS
WILL SEE A DUSTING TO NO SNOW.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL THEN BRING SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPSTREAM JET MAX BEGINS TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. WEAK 250 MB DIVERGENCE RESULTS IN 700 MB
DOWNWARD MOTION TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RE-ENFORCES THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE U.S.
700/850 MB RH DRIES BUT 925 MB RH IS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO
EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD AND RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -13 WEDNESDAY WITH
1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 515/525 DECAMETERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE TROUGH AXIS OF ONE SHORTWAVE IN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF BUT IS SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF
BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
THE DETAILS OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 1000 TO 500
MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 510/516 DECAMETERS AS THE HIGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE BROAD TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY.
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. THIS HIGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES IOWA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE JUST A LITTLE SATURDAY.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A FASTER AND STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE 12Z GFS DRIVING A DEEPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THIS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN A BROAD TROUGH BUILDS
AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH
AND EAST. BOTH MODELS RE-ENFORCE THE COLD AIR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL EARLY EVENING...MAINLY AT THE EASTERN
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH THE LOW PASSING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING
WEST NORTHWEST AND GUSTY INTO THE REST OF TUESDAY.
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REACH MADISON BY 08Z TUESDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SHOULD SEE A MIX AT MADISON AFTER 14Z TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN AT THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BRING HIGH WAVES. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT.
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ