Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED SYNOPSIS
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
420 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL OCCUR
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY CONDITIONS
EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITY CONTINUES THROUGH PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY GENERALLY FROM MERCED SOUTH THROUGH BAKERSFIELD
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. GOES WEST IFR PROBABILITY SHOWING
A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA THROUGH THE SJV COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. ANY DENSE FOG THAT DOES FORM IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE HRRR INDICATES CLEARING AROUND 10 AM PST.
ADDITIONALLY...NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FORECAST AN INVERSION TO AROUND
2000 FEET...KEEPING HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 MILES.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CHANGING VERY
LITTLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
VALLEY AND THE LOW 80S IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS.
A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE BRINGING ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
BY THURSDAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN KEEPS THE
REGION DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS
HIGH PREDICTABILITY AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARDS TO THE
REGION CONTINUING IN THE RIDGING PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY OUTLIER AS OF NOW IS THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO MARIPOSA
COUNTY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY 1 RUN AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE
RIDGING...WE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. FORECASTER CERTAINTY HIGH.
TO ADD TO OUR CONFIDENCE...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 6 TO 10
DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 12TH THROUGH THE 16TH) INDICATES
AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR IN FOG
UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND AGAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MVFR WILL PREVAIL IN HAZE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7 2014... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS IN MERCED COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN MERCED COUNTY. NO BURNING IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KFAT 11-09 85:1956 53:1982 59:1899 33:1903
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
KBFL 11-09 88:1926 52:1893 61:1953 31:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DECREASE
EACH DAY...HOWEVER HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITY CONTINUES THROUGH PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY GENERALLY FROM MERCED SOUTH THROUGH BAKERSFIELD
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. GOES WEST IFR PROBABILITY SHOWING
A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA THROUGH THE SJV COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. ANY DENSE FOG THAT DOES FORM IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE HRRR INDICATES CLEARING AROUND 10 AM PST.
ADDITIONALLY...NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FORECAST AN INVERSION TO AROUND
2000 FEET...KEEPING HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 MILES.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CHANGING VERY
LITTLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
VALLEY AND THE LOW 80S IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS.
A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE BRINGING ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
BY THURSDAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN KEEPS THE
REGION DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS
HIGH PREDICTABILITY AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARDS TO THE
REGION CONTINUING IN THE RIDGING PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY OUTLIER AS OF NOW IS THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO MARIPOSA
COUNTY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY 1 RUN AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE
RIDGING...WE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. FORECASTER CERTAINTY HIGH.
TO ADD TO OUR CONFIDENCE...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 6 TO 10
DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 12TH THROUGH THE 16TH) INDICATES
AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR IN FOG
UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND AGAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MVFR WILL PREVAIL IN HAZE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7 2014... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS IN MERCED COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN MERCED COUNTY. NO BURNING IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KFAT 11-09 85:1956 53:1982 59:1899 33:1903
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
KBFL 11-09 88:1926 52:1893 61:1953 31:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND COULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING
IN THE NORTH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FAIRLY
LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 30S AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 072100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LOWER VFR CEILINGS AROUND 035 HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE KIND AREA...SO
WILL TAKE THEM OUT ON THE UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY START TO THIN AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE AT THE WESTERN SITES.
WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS THEN TONIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NIGHT AS CENTRAL INDIANA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY /TO 8-14 KTS/ AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND COULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING
IN THE NORTH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FAIRLY
LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 30S AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY START TO THIN AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE AT THE WESTERN SITES.
WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS THEN TONIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NIGHT AS CENTRAL INDIANA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY /TO 8-14 KTS/ AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
105 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ONLY TO REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
SCATTERED MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WHERE SUNSHINE CAN PEEK THROUGH...VERSUS
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN CLOUDY AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. AN EVEN COLDER PERIOD STILL
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
COVER PERSISTENT SINGLE N/S BAND JUST OFF ERN LK MI SHORELINE INTO
NWRN CWA INLAND THROUGH WRN KOS CO IN PRE FIRST PERIOD. SCATTERED
WORDING COMBINED WITH EXPANDED AREA OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WORDING
SHOULD SUFFICE. BLYR FINALLY COOLED FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP
PER KLWA/KSBN AND PUBLIC REPORTS. HOWEVER...THERMAL MODIFICATION
NEAR LAKE AND EPISODIC ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULTIES ESPCLY IN
WEAKER CELLS...SUPPORT MIXED RA/SN WORDING. RUC RAPID REFRESH
INDICATING INLAND PUSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK COINCIDENT WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AS 8H COLD POOL SHUNTED EWD FROM LAKE HURON INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE RETRACTION CLOSER TO
LAKE AND INLAND ACRS SWRN MI/FAR NRN IN...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
TRACE MIXED AMOUNTS BYND 12 UTC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CU RULES SHOULD SUPPORT GENEROUS CU FIELD
ALL BUT FAR SERN QUARTER...MIXING OUT ALL BUT NERN CWA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FORECAST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
LONGWAVE LOSSES AS STRATOCU BREAKS BECOME ENLARGE NEAR SUNUP ALONG
WITH VARIABLE/TEMPERED DAYTIME INSOLATION. THOUGH WITH APPRECIABLE
WAA DISPLACED WELL WEST OF CWA...MORE INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH
CONSERVATIVE/MODEST RECOVERY. WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
ANTICIPATED ALTOCU LEAFING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ASSOCD WITH
50-60 KT JETLET TRACKS EWD THROUGH SRN LWR MI 09-12 UTC ON LEADING
EDGE OF SHARPENING TROF AND ASSOCIATED HFC OF 60-80M/12HR. INITIAL
LARGE SUBCLOUD CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /IN EXCESS OF 100 MB/
SHOULD NEGATE ALL BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR OF HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER CENTROID THAT TRACKS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SRN CAN
TODAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH EARLY
HIGHS FOLLOWED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/LOW LEVEL WAA SUPPORT SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO FRI NIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
...TASTE OF WINTER ON THE WAY...
UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EAST NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROF...GATEWAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN...A FRONTOGENETIC PATTERN
WILL BE SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK
LOW OR SURFACE WAVE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GRADIENT. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OR NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD WEDGE OF COLD AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING FARTHER NORTH. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE NORMALIZED STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS FOR
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS OVER 5 SD...MEANING MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXITS IN BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST RAIN...SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUT FEELING THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARE TOO WARM. ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS...THE
5 PERCENT COLDEST HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT FT WAYNE
ARE 27F TO 33F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN HOLDING ON STRONG THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS DRIER AIR AND MORE OF A WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND
ARRIVE...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
EXISTS LATE AM SATURDAY AS CIGS DROP INTO THE UPPER END OF MVFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1211 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE EXTENDED IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF IT.
THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...SO WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE SUPERBLEND WHICH GOES
ALONG WITH CONSISTENCY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON PER MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 METERS AND BELOW ZERO 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG WITH DROPPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINED TUNED AS THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS CLOSER. IT
SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SAVE
PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROP TO 7 TO 10 BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY START TO THIN AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE AT THE WESTERN SITES.
WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS THEN TONIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NIGHT AS CENTRAL INDIANA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY /TO 8-14 KTS/ AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE EXTENDED IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF IT.
THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...SO WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE SUPERBLEND WHICH GOES
ALONG WITH CONSISTENCY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON PER MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 METERS AND BELOW ZERO 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG WITH DROPPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINED TUNED AS THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS CLOSER. IT
SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SAVE
PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROP TO 7 TO 10 BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY...HOWEVER SHOULD MOSTLY
BE VFR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS IS
TRENDING VERY SLOWLY TO MOVE EAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL 925
MILLIBAR RH PROGS WHICH SUGGEST GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AT IND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO THROW IN.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH AFTER 18Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
654 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A SCATTERED MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
COVER PERSISTENT SINGLE N/S BAND JUST OFF ERN LK MI SHORELINE INTO
NWRN CWA INLAND THROUGH WRN KOS CO IN PRE FIRST PERIOD. SCATTERED
WORDING COMBINED WITH EXPANDED AREA OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WORDING
SHOULD SUFFICE. BLYR FINALLY COOLED FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP
PER KLWA/KSBN AND PUBLIC REPORTS. HOWEVER...THERMAL MODIFICATION
NEAR LAKE AND EPISODIC ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULTIES ESPCLY IN
WEAKER CELLS...SUPPORT MIXED RA/SN WORDING. RUC RAPID REFRESH
INDICATING INLAND PUSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK COINCIDENT WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AS 8H COLD POOL SHUNTED EWD FROM LAKE HURON INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE RETRACTION CLOSER TO
LAKE AND INLAND ACRS SWRN MI/FAR NRN IN...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
TRACE MIXED AMOUNTS BYND 12 UTC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CU RULES SHOULD SUPPORT GENEROUS CU FIELD
ALL BUT FAR SERN QUARTER...MIXING OUT ALL BUT NERN CWA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FORECAST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
LONGWAVE LOSSES AS STRATOCU BREAKS BECOME ENLARGE NEAR SUNUP ALONG
WITH VARIABLE/TEMPERED DAYTIME INSOLATION. THOUGH WITH APPRECIABLE
WAA DISPLACED WELL WEST OF CWA...MORE INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH
CONSERVATIVE/MODEST RECOVERY. WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
ANTICIPATED ALTOCU LEAFING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ASSOCD WITH
50-60 KT JETLET TRACKS EWD THROUGH SRN LWR MI 09-12 UTC ON LEADING
EDGE OF SHARPENING TROF AND ASSOCIATED HFC OF 60-80M/12HR. INITIAL
LARGE SUBCLOUD CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /IN EXCESS OF 100 MB/
SHOULD NEGATE ALL BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR OF HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER CENTROID THAT TRACKS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SRN CAN
TODAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH EARLY
HIGHS FOLLOWED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/LOW LEVEL WAA SUPPORT SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO FRI NIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
...TASTE OF WINTER ON THE WAY...
UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EAST NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROF...GATEWAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN...A FRONTOGENETIC PATTERN
WILL BE SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK
LOW OR SURFACE WAVE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GRADIENT. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OR NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD WEDGE OF COLD AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING FARTHER NORTH. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE NORMALIZED STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS FOR
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS OVER 5 SD...MEANING MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXITS IN BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST RAIN...SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUT FEELING THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARE TOO WARM. ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS...THE
5 PERCENT COLDEST HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT FT WAYNE
ARE 27F TO 33F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN BY AND LARGE VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST
PD. WHILE CIGS 25-30 PSBL AT TIMES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY BLO
CRITICAL 2KFT. OTHERWISE HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN GRTLKS TOWARD END OF FCST PD. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES PSBL
INVOF KSBN TOWARD END OF PD...HOWEVER NOT WORTHY OF SEPARATE
BREAKOUT GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROB OF TRACE EVENT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A SCATTERED MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
COVER PERSISTENT SINGLE N/S BAND JUST OFF ERN LK MI SHORELINE INTO
NWRN CWA INLAND THROUGH WRN KOS CO IN PRE FIRST PERIOD. SCATTERED
WORDING COMBINED WITH EXPANDED AREA OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WORDING
SHOULD SUFFICE. BLYR FINALLY COOLED FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP
PER KLWA/KSBN AND PUBLIC REPORTS. HOWEVER...THERMAL MODIFICATION
NEAR LAKE AND EPISODIC ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULTIES ESPCLY IN
WEAKER CELLS...SUPPORT MIXED RA/SN WORDING. RUC RAPID REFRESH
INDICATING INLAND PUSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK COINCIDENT WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AS 8H COLD POOL SHUNTED EWD FROM LAKE HURON INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE RETRACTION CLOSER TO
LAKE AND INLAND ACRS SWRN MI/FAR NRN IN...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
TRACE MIXED AMOUNTS BYND 12 UTC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CU RULES SHOULD SUPPORT GENEROUS CU FIELD
ALL BUT FAR SERN QUARTER...MIXING OUT ALL BUT NERN CWA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FORECAST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
LONGWAVE LOSSES AS STRATOCU BREAKS BECOME ENLARGE NEAR SUNUP ALONG
WITH VARIABLE/TEMPERED DAYTIME INSOLATION. THOUGH WITH APPRECIABLE
WAA DISPLACED WELL WEST OF CWA...MORE INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH
CONSERVATIVE/MODEST RECOVERY. WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
ANTICIPATED ALTOCU LEAFING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ASSOCD WITH
50-60 KT JETLET TRACKS EWD THROUGH SRN LWR MI 09-12 UTC ON LEADING
EDGE OF SHARPENING TROF AND ASSOCIATED HFC OF 60-80M/12HR. INITIAL
LARGE SUBCLOUD CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /IN EXCESS OF 100 MB/
SHOULD NEGATE ALL BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR OF HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER CENTROID THAT TRACKS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SRN CAN
TODAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH EARLY
HIGHS FOLLOWED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/LOW LEVEL WAA SUPPORT SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO FRI NIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
...TASTE OF WINTER ON THE WAY...
UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EAST NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROF...GATEWAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN...A FRONTOGENETIC PATTERN
WILL BE SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK
LOW OR SURFACE WAVE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GRADIENT. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OR NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD WEDGE OF COLD AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING FARTHER NORTH. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE NORMALIZED STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS FOR
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS OVER 5 SD...MEANING MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXITS IN BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST RAIN...SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUT FEELING THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARE TOO WARM. ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS...THE
5 PERCENT COLDEST HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT FT WAYNE
ARE 27F TO 33F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR UNDERCUTS SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND SUBSIDENT RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CU FIELD AND LIGHT/BACKING SFC WINDS AS RIDGELINE TRAVERSES EWD
THROUGH NRN IN DURING DAYTIME. SLIGHTLY STRONGER/BACKED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING MID LVL ALTOCU DECK THROUGH EVENING/END OF
FORECAST PD AS PROMINENT SHORTWAVE /CURRENTLY OVR SRN
ALBERTA/SASK/ ENTERS NRN MS VLY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
STALLING OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: DECIDED TO DROP OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN IS THIN
ATTM WHILE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS KEEPING TEMPERATURE STEADY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL STAY W/THESE TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE
IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK WAA. SOME OF THIS RETURNS ARE LINING UP
W/THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES W/THESE RETURNS. THE 00Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE FROM 800-600MBS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA W/A SW
FLOW OF 30-35 KTS AT 700MBS. DECIDED TO ADD SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS(20%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN THIS AREAS
SWEEPS EAST AND DRIES OUT.
ANY SN SHWRS COULD MIX WITH RN ACROSS THE N BY LATE MORN AS SFC
TEMPS RISE FROM ERLY...MDNGT LOW TEMPS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY SLOWLY
RISING DURING THE LATE NGT HRS DUE TO THICKENING CLD CVR AND WEAK
WARM ADVCN. SOME OF THE CLD CVR AND ANY SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT
THE FA DURG THE AFTN HRS A FEW HRS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL
AS THE S/WV DAMPENS AND TRACKS ENE...NORTH OF THE REGION. AFT NEAR
NORMAL MDNGT LOWS TNGT...HI TEMPS SUN SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER
THAN TDY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30. THE HIGH WILL
START TO SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY, WITH WARMER AIR STARTING TO SPILL
NORTHWARD ON ITS BACKSIDE. EXPECT SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO START OUT AS SNOW, BUT
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE IT OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
MID 30S SOUTH, WHILE TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 40 IN NORTHERN
MAINE, TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK JUST TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN DOWNEAST. DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND SUN...XCPT PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SN SHWRS VERY LATE TNGT INTO MON MORN
OVR NRN MOST TAF SITES.
LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FVE AND
CAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS THURSDAY, BUT FVE, CAR, AND KPQI WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS TNGT...THEN WVS BUILD OVR OUTER
WATER MZS ON MON DUE TO SW WIND FETCH WHICH BEGINS LATE TNGT AND
CONTS INTO SUN MORN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. KEPT CLOSE TO FCST
WW3 WV HTS FOR BOTH TNGT AND SUN.
LONG TERM: WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN
UP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THEREFORE, NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
404 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTERWARDS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS TWO BANDS OF ENHANCED SN RATES...
A DIMINISHING ONE OVR NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND FAR NRN PENOBSCOT
COUNTY AND A NEW STRONGER BAND XTNDG SW FROM NRN NB PROV INTO FAR
SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. BOTH WERE WELL
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. THE TREND BASED ON THIS
OUTPUT IS TO MOVE ANY REMAINING BANDING OVR OUR REGION ENTIRELY
INTO NB BY ERLY EVE. FOR NOW...THE ONLY WNTR WX HDLN GOING ATTM IS
THE WNTR STM WRNG FOR NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WHICH WE WILL HOLD ON
TO FOR A COUPLE OF HRS...THINKING THAT ANY SNFL THAT OCCURS
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN IT TAPERS TO SN SHWRS THIS EVE COULD STICK
MORE ON THE ROADWAYS WITH FALLING LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE TEMPS. SNFL
OVR SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES COULD AMOUNT TO AN
INCH OR TWO...BUT THESE LCTNS HAD LITTLE OR NO SN ACCUMULATION
BEFORE THIS TM.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY LATER TNGT AS THE
LOW CONTS TO MOVE FURTHER NE FROM THE REGION...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG WORKING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
WITH A STRONG BACKSIDE PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
SN PACK IS WAY TO WET FOR ANY SIG DRIFTING. FZG OF SLUSH AND WET
SN ON UNTREATED ROAD SFCS WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TNGT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FZG NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ON SAT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BRISK IN THE
MORN...THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTN WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND
QPF. THE NAM12 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOW BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS. ONLY MINOR
MODIFICATIONS MADE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN ACROSS NRN TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THIS EVE AND THEN TO
VFR AFT SN SHWRS EXIT THE FA. DOWNEAST SITES WILL IMPROVE FROM
MVFR LATE THIS AFTN IN RN/SN SHWRS TO VFR THIS EVE. ALL SITES
SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR ON SAT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN OVR
ALL OF OUR WATERS...THEN WOULD XPCT A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR SAT
MORN MSLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. WENT WITH OR A LITTLE BLO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS TNGT AND SAT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BECOMING LIGHT MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1238 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
955 AM...NW FLOW SHRA/SHSN ARE UNDERWAY. VIEWING A FEW WEBCAMS IN
GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND SHOWS SOME OFF AND ON SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE HARD TO COME BY AT THOSE SITES. DID GET A REPORT
OF 2 INCHES AT THE DAVIS COOP EARLIER. SO SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATION IS LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET FOR THE MOST
PART. HRRR AND A COUPLE LOCAL MODELS SHOW THAT A DOMINANT LAKE
BAND FROM HURON/ERIE WILL SET UP FROM VENANGO/MERCER COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN WESTMORELAND. GRIDS HAD
THIS PEGGED FAIRLY WELL AND SO ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS. DID
UP WIND GUSTS A LITTLE BIT GIVEN OBS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MOVE
UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS IN GENERAL.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
EVERYTHING STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENTED OVER LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAA/NW FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT EVENT WITH THE
COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RUNNING INTO THE
RIDGES AND CREATING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN THE TOUGHEST PART DUE TO DURATION...INTENSITY AND SURFACE
TEMPS. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING A
SCENARIO WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE THIS MORNING AND ONE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW FOCUSED ON ONE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE LIFT EXITS...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 3 OR 4000FT. THIS SHOULD CUTOFF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOWFALL AND THUS SHORTEN THE TIME FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF THE AREAS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE BAND(S)
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE STILL SLOW TO
RESPOND TO THE CAA...BUT SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IS VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DROPPING OF
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...SO
AN EFFICIENT SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BECOME LESS
PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD CORE ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE ENTIRE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLDEST AIR EXITS
AND THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE BELOW ZERO 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WILL LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A BIT OF
A MODERATION IN TEMPS SATURDAY.
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PLACE THE PRECIP/MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SUPPORT IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...AND IN
RESPONSE...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT LITTLE QPF. CAA WILL AGAIN
ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY`S
AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY SO NOT
AS MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY`S COLD SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAA AND SUBSIDENCE...
SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH APPROACHING RIDGE.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20-21Z.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE TOWARDS A WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...AND SOME
HI/MID CLOUDS BUILDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS OUT
OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
955 AM...NW FLOW SHRA/SHSN ARE UNDERWAY. VIEWING A FEW WEBCAMS IN
GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND SHOWS SOME OFF AND ON SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE HARD TO COME BY AT THOSE SITES. DID GET A REPORT
OF 2 INCHES AT THE DAVIS COOP EARLIER. SO SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATION IS LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET FOR THE MOST
PART. HRRR AND A COUPLE LOCAL MODELS SHOW THAT A DOMINANT LAKE
BAND FROM HURON/ERIE WILL SET UP FROM VENANGO/MERCER COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN WESTMORELAND. GRIDS HAD
THIS PEGGED FAIRLY WELL AND SO ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS. DID
UP WIND GUSTS A LITTLE BIT GIVEN OBS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MOVE
UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS IN GENERAL.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
EVERYTHING STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENTED OVER LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAA/NW FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT EVENT WITH THE
COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RUNNING INTO THE
RIDGES AND CREATING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN THE TOUGHEST PART DUE TO DURATION...INTENSITY AND SURFACE
TEMPS. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING A
SCENARIO WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE THIS MORNING AND ONE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW FOCUSED ON ONE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE LIFT EXITS...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 3 OR 4000FT. THIS SHOULD CUTOFF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOWFALL AND THUS SHORTEN THE TIME FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF THE AREAS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE BAND(S)
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE STILL SLOW TO
RESPOND TO THE CAA...BUT SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IS VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DROPPING OF
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...SO
AN EFFICIENT SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BECOME LESS
PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD CORE ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE ENTIRE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLDEST AIR EXITS
AND THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE BELOW ZERO 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WILL LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A BIT OF
A MODERATION IN TEMPS SATURDAY.
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PLACE THE PRECIP/MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SUPPORT IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...AND IN
RESPONSE...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT LITTLE QPF. CAA WILL AGAIN
ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY`S
AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY SO NOT
AS MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY`S COLD SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAA AND SUBSIDENCE...
SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE BEGUN
TO THIN OUT AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY....EXCEPT FOR KBVI/KPIT/KAGC WHICH MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON IF LOCAL MODELS VERIFY
WELL AND A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ON
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
709 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 645 AM SHOWS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCAL HIRES AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET SO FAR TODAY.. SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY FROM MERCER TO WESTMORELAND COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER THESE AREAS...BUT OTHERWISE...MINIMAL CHANGE
NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ONGOING FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH
TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
EVERYTHING STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENTED OVER LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAA/NW FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT EVENT WITH THE
COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RUNNING INTO THE
RIDGES AND CREATING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN THE TOUGHEST PART DUE TO DURATION...INTENSITY AND SURFACE
TEMPS. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING A
SCENARIO WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE THIS MORNING AND ONE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW FOCUSED ON ONE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE LIFT EXITS...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 3 OR 4000FT. THIS SHOULD CUTOFF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOWFALL AND THUS SHORTEN THE TIME FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF THE AREAS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE BAND(S)
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE STILL SLOW TO
RESPOND TO THE CAA...BUT SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IS VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DROPPING OF
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...SO
AN EFFICIENT SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BECOME LESS
PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD CORE ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE ENTIRE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLDEST AIR EXITS
AND THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE BELOW ZERO 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WILL LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A BIT OF
A MODERATION IN TEMPS SATURDAY.
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PLACE THE PRECIP/MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SUPPORT IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...AND IN
RESPONSE...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT LITTLE QPF. CAA WILL AGAIN
ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY`S
AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY SO NOT
AS MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY`S COLD SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAA AND SUBSIDENCE...
SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE BEGUN
TO THIN OUT AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY....EXCEPT FOR KBVI/KPIT/KAGC WHICH MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON IF LOCAL MODELS VERIFY
WELL AND A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ON
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER EASTERN N.A. AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW HEADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE IN
NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS. UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
ENVELOPING MOST OF THE U.S. 12Z TUE WITH VERY COLD AIR EMBEDDED IN
THIS TROUGH. TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND -13C AND LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES FROM 5C TO 7C WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PCPN AND WITH THE COLD AIR...THIS WILL ALL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD
AND KCMX AND BY EARLY EVENING AT KSAW. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
MINNESOTA...EXPECT A ONE TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. COULD
BE BRIEFLY IFR VSBY DURING BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN TEMPO GROUPS IN LATEST TAFS. ONCE THIS SNOW MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
BACK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
KIWD AROUND 06Z...AND KSAW CLOSER TO 09Z. COLDER AIR RUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW ANY MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST AT
KCMX AND KIWD WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KTS. DRY AIR ARRIVING LATER ON
SATURDAY MAY ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT KIWD BY SATURDAY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1248 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV
TROUGH...CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS FROM THE -4C TO -7C RANGE TO
-11C TO -14C. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE (WATER TEMPS
AROUND 6C) WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS...STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE PCPN INTENSITY SO THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. THE STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE ERN CWA
EARLY SATURDAY. HOWVER...THE INCREASED MIXING DEPTH WITH THE CAA
COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ALONG THE SHORE FOR NW
FACING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MARQUETTE.
THE LES WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC REFLECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REINFORCING COLD AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE(INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK INTO
THE 8K TO 10K FT RANGE) WILL BOOST THE LES FOR W TO WNW FLOW AREAS SO
THAT THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
SUN-MON...EXPECT THE W FLOW LES TO DIMINISH AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AGAIN DROP. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH FGEN AND WAA NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC-850 MB
WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. WINDS
VEERING TO N WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER
MI. HOWEVER...ACYC FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 3K-4K FT
WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
MENTIONED.
TUE-THU...GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAV AND ASSCOCIATED SFC LOW THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SOUTH OF UPPER MI COMPARED
TO THE 12Z/06 ECMWF/UKMET/GEM THAT HAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN INTO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL SFC LOW TRACK...UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR (850 MB TEMPS FROM -12C TO -14C) ON N
TO NW WINDS AND A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING LES TO THE
NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD
AND KCMX AND BY EARLY EVENING AT KSAW. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
MINNESOTA...EXPECT A ONE TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. COULD
BE BRIEFLY IFR VSBY DURING BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN TEMPO GROUPS IN LATEST TAFS. ONCE THIS SNOW MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
BACK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
KIWD AROUND 06Z...AND KSAW CLOSER TO 09Z. COLDER AIR RUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW ANY MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST AT
KCMX AND KIWD WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KTS. DRY AIR ARRIVING LATER ON
SATURDAY MAY ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT KIWD BY SATURDAY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV
TROUGH...CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS FROM THE -4C TO -7C RANGE TO
-11C TO -14C. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE (WATER TEMPS
AROUND 6C) WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS...STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE PCPN INTENSITY SO THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. THE STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE ERN CWA
EARLY SATURDAY. HOWVER...THE INCREASED MIXING DEPTH WITH THE CAA
COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ALONG THE SHORE FOR NW
FACING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MARQUETTE.
THE LES WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC REFLECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REINFORCING COLD AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE(INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK INTO
THE 8K TO 10K FT RANGE) WILL BOOST THE LES FOR W TO WNW FLOW AREAS SO
THAT THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
SUN-MON...EXPECT THE W FLOW LES TO DIMINISH AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AGAIN DROP. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH FGEN AND WAA NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC-850 MB
WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. WINDS
VEERING TO N WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER
MI. HOWEVER...ACYC FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 3K-4K FT
WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
MENTIONED.
TUE-THU...GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAV AND ASSCOCIATED SFC LOW THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SOUTH OF UPPER MI COMPARED
TO THE 12Z/06 ECMWF/UKMET/GEM THAT HAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN INTO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL SFC LOW TRACK...UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR (850 MB TEMPS FROM -12C TO -14C) ON N
TO NW WINDS AND A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING LES TO THE
NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CEILING AND VIS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM MANITOBA
THIS MORNING SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING.
INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PEAK OUT WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR AND IFR NEAR THE FRONT /LOWEST AT SAW/. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS IWD AROUND 06Z...AND SAW CLOSER TO 09Z. COLDER
AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW. BREEZY WNW WINDS AT CMX AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE
NEAR 30KTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV
TROUGH...CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS FROM THE -4C TO -7C RANGE TO
-11C TO -14C. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE (WATER TEMPS
AROUND 6C) WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS...STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE PCPN INTENSITY SO THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. THE STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE ERN CWA
EARLY SATURDAY. HOWVER...THE INCREASED MIXING DEPTH WITH THE CAA
COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ALONG THE SHORE FOR NW
FACING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MARQUETTE.
THE LES WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC REFLECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REINFORCING COLD AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE(INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK INTO
THE 8K TO 10K FT RANGE) WILL BOOST THE LES FOR W TO WNW FLOW AREAS SO
THAT THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
SUN-MON...EXPECT THE W FLOW LES TO DIMINISH AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AGAIN DROP. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH FGEN AND WAA NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC-850 MB
WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. WINDS
VEERING TO N WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER
MI. HOWEVER...ACYC FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 3K-4K FT
WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
MENTIONED.
TUE-THU...GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAV AND ASSCOCIATED SFC LOW THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SOUTH OF UPPER MI COMPARED
TO THE 12Z/06 ECMWF/UKMET/GEM THAT HAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN INTO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL SFC LOW TRACK...UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR (850 MB TEMPS FROM -12C TO -14C) ON N
TO NW WINDS AND A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING LES TO THE
NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD WITH AN UPSLOPE N
WIND COMPONENT FOR THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK HI PRES
RIDGE/AREA OF DRIER LLVL AIR. THIS HI AND AREA OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL
THEN BRING VFR WX THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
THIS AFTN AND PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APRCHG LO PRES TROF...EXPECT GUSTY S WINDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AT THE MORE EXPOSED SAW AND IWD LOCATIONS. A MIX OF RA AND SN WL
ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THE SLY FLOW WL SLOWLY TAP MORE
LLVL MSTR. IN CONCERT WITH THE FALLING PCPN...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE THRU THE EVNG HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
OUR BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END THIS
MORNING AS A SFC RIDGE IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AS
A 997MB SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SRN SASK. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 305-310K SFCS IS FORCING A LEAD BAND OF RADAR RETURNS /THOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY PRECIP AT THE SFC/ THAT IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO WRN
MN AT 3 AM. HOWEVER...THESE ISENTROPIC SFCS ARE ALL LOCATED BETWEEN
8K AND 12K FEET OFF THE GROUND...WITH THE AIR BELOW STILL VERY DRY.
BECAUSE OF THAT...WE ARE SEEING PLENTY OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 8K AND 12K
FEET...BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. HI-RES SHORT TERM CAMS
/HRRR...HOPWRF ETC/ ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE ADAMANT ON PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND WITH THIS WAA THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 07.00 RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE...WHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE SREF CONTINUE TO
KEEP PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING NORTH OF THE MPX CWA. AM A BIT GUN
SHY ON BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CAMS RIGHT NOW...AS ON FRIDAY THEY
WERE QUITE OVERDONE ON THE EXTENT/AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FELL SOUTH
OF THE DEFORMATION BAND THAT SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL MN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE GOING FORECAST OTHER
THAN TO PULL CHANCE POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH /INTO THE TWIN CITIES/
BY 18Z. TEMPS ARE WARMING BACK ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP...SO EXPECT P-TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH A LITTLE MIX
WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS PRECIP
INITIALLY WORKS INTO CENTRAL MN.
PRECIP COVERAGE IS LOOKING LIKE IT SHOULD BE A BIT BETTER WITH THE
SECOND ROUND OF FORCING COMING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS ROUND OF FORCING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 21Z...MOVING THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 00Z AND BE EXITING THE ERN MPX CWA A LITTLE AFTER 3Z. THE
REASON PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTING IS WE WILL BE MOISTENING
THE LOW LEVELS A BIT...SO THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH DRY AIR TO FIGHT
AS THE WAA BAND WILL HAVE. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-94 AND NOW HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS OVER IN WRN WI THIS EVENING. THE
AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...WHICH MEANS WE WILL
WILL BE DEALING WITH AN ALL RAIN EVENT. WITH THAT SAID...IT IS AN
ALL RAIN EVENT WHERE THE BIG WINNER FOR TOTAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY
ONLY GET A TENTH OF AN INCH.
POSSIBLY THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THE FRONT THOUGH IS THE WINDS COMING
IN BEHIND IT. WE WILL BE SEEING 3HR PRESSURE RISES OF THE ORDER OF
4-5 MB COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS WILL BE A DECREASE
AS COMPARED TO THE 6-8MB RISES THE DAKOTAS WILL EXPERIENCE TODAY.
STRONG CAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DEEP /UP TO ALMOST H85/ AND WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX-DOWN WINDS OFF NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS PUSH UP TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KTS...THOUGH MID CHANNEL WINDS /WHICH WILL BE MOST
COMMON FOR GUSTS/ ARE DOWN AROUND 35 KTS. 200FT WINDS ALSO INCREASE
TO NEAR 25 KTS...WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY FOR MAX SUSTAINED WINDS WE
COULD EXPECT. THIS ALL POINTS TO MARGINAL WIND ADVY WINDS...AND WITH
THOSE EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 0Z AND 9Z...THEY WOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW IMPACT WINDS AS WELL. SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUR AREA CLEAN
OF ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND WITH A MARGINAL LOW IMPACT EVENT
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
FIRST UP IN THE LONG TERM IS A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED. THE GFS
IS THE QUICKEST WITH THE ONSET BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND HAS
THE EVENT PRACTICALLY OVER BEFORE THE ECMWF SPREADS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GEM ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY. THE SREF OFFERED
A NICE COMPROMISE ON THE TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...CHANCE
POPS REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI.
A MORE POTENT WAVE IS SET TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HOWEVER THE CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND HAS BEEN MEANDERING
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. THE 07/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SETTLED
DOWN SOME. USING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLACES THE EMPHASIS ON THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER. THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS (A NEW VERSION TO BE
RELEASED IN DEC) ARE ALONG I-90 WHILE THE NAM...GEM AND OUR
INTERNAL HOPWRF ARE ACROSS NORTHERN IA. GUIDANCE FROM HPC METWATCH
INDICATED THAT MORE EMPHASIS SHOULD BE PLACED ON THE NORTHERN
SOLUTIONS DUE TO TOO MUCH COLD/DRY AIR BEING ALLOWED IN ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE ON THE LATTER SOLUTIONS. A CHECK OF
THE CIPS ANALOGS USING THE GFS AT 72 HOURS SHOWED NOV 8TH 1985 AS
THE NUMBER ONE ANALOG. ITS INTERESTING THAT THE SNOW FROM THIS
ANALOG WAS ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER...WHICH COMES BACK TO THE BLENDING SOLUTION OF THE 07/00Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE 07/00Z GFS BUFKIT PROFILE FOR KFRM HAS A
LITTLE MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY WHILE
SPREADING INTO ADJOINING AREAS OF WI. POPS WERE RAISED IN THESE
AREAS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING ON THE
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR. HOW FAR NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHES IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THIS
POINT...ITS LOOKING LIKE A WILLMAR...SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES TO EAU
CLAIRE LINE IS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS REACHES. A WINTER STORM WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK IT WILL BE COLD AND DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ONE CONCERN
ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES MORE THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS THE
FACT THAT THE FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE CYCLONIC WITH PERIODS OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ADDITION TO STRATOCUMULUS. AREAS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS ARE VULNERABLE TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH
FINALLY REACHES US. ON A SIDE NOTE...FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...THE TWIN CITIES HAS NOT HAD A LOW BELOW ZERO SINCE NOV
24TH 1997.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE RADAR SAYS IT WILL BE A WET MORNING...BUT THE VERY DRY AIR
BELOW 10K FT SAYS OTHERWISE. SEE TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
TODAY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIP CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. USED THE HRRR TO
TIME THESE PRECIP ROUNDS IN. OF THE TWO...THE COLD FRONT IS THE
ONE THAT LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAIN AS THE ATMO BELOW 10K
FT WILL HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A 2-3K FT STRATUS DECK COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL
LIKELY START TO SCT OUT BEFORE 12Z SAT. WILL SEE A 4 OR 5 HOUR
WINDOW AFTER THE FROPA WITH STRONG WINDS...BUT THEY WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN SOME AFTER THAT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MORE THAN SUPPORT
WHAT THE 06Z TAFS HAD FOR WIND SPEEDS...SO CONTINUED TO GO A BIT
ABOVE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THOSE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER THE FROPA.
KMSP...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY AS DRY AIR
WILL PLAY HAVOC ON APPROACHING PRECIP/VIRGA. WILL BE PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH FOR WHEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FORE PRECIP TO KEEP IT ALL
RAIN. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE FORECAST OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. ALSO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY MORNING THEY WILL LAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS W 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...CHC IFR/SN. SMALL ACCUMS POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1020 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR LATEST
OBSERVED TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS TO MAX HIGHS BY A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE.
.DISCUSSION...FULL SUN ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REBOUND FROM THE UPPER 30 AND LOW 40 LOWS THIS MORNING. WITH 7-10C
H925 TEMPS PER RAP SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOW 60S SOUTH WITH A COOL NORTH BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH. SOME HIGHER
CIRRUS WILL START TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF REGION LATE
AFTERNOON AND BE TO LATE TO IMPINGE ON HIGH TEMPS.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10KTS
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 5KTS THIS EVENING. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS
FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
AND GRADUALLY WEAKER COLD ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL AS COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS (850 MB TEMPS 4-8C) LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE DELTA. THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST IN PARTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI...THUS WE
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AND HWO.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
WILL FORCE ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
BY EARLY SATURDAY...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWATS UP TO 3/4
INCH AND 700 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DOWN TO 1-4C. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CLEARING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. /DL/
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...THE FOCUS ON THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARLY PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
AND THE WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FOR WED-
FRI.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOL DOWN FOR MID WEEK...WE WILL COVER THE THE
SUN-TUE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE A COOL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG DAY
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SFC HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR A
COOL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR MON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH MORE
NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE LATEST BLENDED GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
AND REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS 68-72. HOWEVER...DEEPER
ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID 70S AS WARM LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP (925MB TEMPS OF 15C). I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW UPPER 70S.
TUE WILL BE A MORE TRICKY DAY AS SOME OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE FRONT
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY SE. TUE WILL START THE DAY OFF ON THE WARM
SIDE AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
POOLING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE STEADY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WAS WELL EARLY TUE AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INCREASES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY SO SOME MID RANGE POPS WILL EXIST TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY ON TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL-SE AREAS TO INDICATE THAT. THE
FULL WARMING POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE REACHED DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...BUT MID 70S SEEMS EASY TO REACH. WHAT WILL BE MORE TRICKY
IS TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF THE FEATURE.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON HOW QUICKLY THE MORE QUALITY COLD MAKES IT. MY
GUESS IS MODELS WILL TREND COLDER. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND HOW MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THESE
SHALLOW AIR MASSES. LOOK FOR A VERY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT WITH THIS
FRONT FOR TUE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY SOME 20-30 DEGREE
DIFFERENCES NOTED ACROSS THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE THE EXTENDED MOS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER. MOS TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DRIVEN BY 850MB TEMPS AND
SHALLOW COLD AIR ALWAYS GIVES MOS FITS. STAYING WITH MORE RAW OUTPUT
WILL LEAD YOU IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND THE LATEST BLENDED GUID
DOES THAT (ALTHOUGH ITS LIKELY NOT COLD ENOUGH). OVERALL...WE ARE
TALKING THE 5-6 DAY PART OF THE FORECAST AND BEING CONSERVATIVE IS A
GOOD APPROACH. OVERALL...FROM WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY
AND SOME 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVG. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 37 66 42 / 0 0 3 5
MERIDIAN 61 33 64 41 / 0 0 2 5
VICKSBURG 61 35 68 41 / 0 0 2 5
HATTIESBURG 64 36 66 43 / 0 0 1 4
NATCHEZ 61 37 66 43 / 0 0 2 4
GREENVILLE 59 38 65 41 / 0 0 7 4
GREENWOOD 58 36 65 39 / 0 0 6 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1057 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW NORTH OF
TORONTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY AROUND MID-DAY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND DUAL POL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THE TRANSITION BY AROUND 5 OR 6 AM. IN FACT...IT IS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER WILL SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN BUFFALO WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND 10AM...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FROM WHERE THE START
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THUS WHILE LOCATIONS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS
MORNING...THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL SHALLOW OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH FALLING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE TO BE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND REACH OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY DPVA AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INITIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY EVENING THE
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO SOME LOCAL ASSISTANCE FROM LIMITED LAKE INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NY FARTHEST REMOVED FROM ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTS OT 25-30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS FROM LAKE
ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 7-8K
FEET BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT A QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT
COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HILLS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...AND A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WEAKEN ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SW. ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL EVOLVE INTO SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC...
LEAVING A TRAILING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLING AWAY...
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST
AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. A
PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND TREND TOWARDS A COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FLIP/FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS. THE LATEST 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF RUNS NOW APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT...WITH SHEARED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO JUST NUISANCE SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT A POOR LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOWEST CIGS AND VISIBILITY /WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE/ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS THE RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW OR ALL SNOW.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE DELAYED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IF WINDS BECOME CALM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON LAKE
ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS TIME.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL FORCE THE HIGHER WAVES
TO THE NORTH SHORES OF THE LAKES THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORES OF THE EASTERN LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
653 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW NORTH OF
TORONTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY AROUND MID-DAY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND DUAL POL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THE TRANSITION BY AROUND 5 OR 6 AM. IN FACT...IT IS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER WILL SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN BUFFALO WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND 10AM...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FROM WHERE THE START
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THUS WHILE LOCATIONS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS
MORNING...THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL SHALLOW OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH FALLING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE TO BE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND REACH OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY DPVA AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INITIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY EVENING THE
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO SOME LOCAL ASSISTANCE FROM LIMITED LAKE INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NY FARTHEST REMOVED FROM ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTS OT 25-30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS FROM LAKE
ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 7-8K
FEET BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT A QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT
COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HILLS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...AND A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WEAKEN ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SW. ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL EVOLVE INTO SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC...
LEAVING A TRAILING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLING AWAY...
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST
AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. A
PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND TREND TOWARDS A COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FLIP/FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS. THE LATEST 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF RUNS NOW APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT...WITH SHEARED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO JUST NUISANCE SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT A POOR LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CIGS AND VISIBILITY /WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE/ THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE KJHW
WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE DELAYED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IF
WINDS BECOME CALM FRI NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
KROC.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL FORCE THE HIGHER WAVES
TO THE NORTH SHORES OF THE LAKES THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORES OF THE EASTERN LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
436 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW NORTH OF
TORONTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY AROUND MID-DAY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND DUAL POL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THE TRANSITION BY AROUND 5 OR 6 AM. IN FACT...IT IS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER WILL SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN BUFFALO WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND 10AM...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FROM WHERE THE START
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THUS WHILE LOCATIONS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS
MORNING...THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL SHALLOW OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH FALLING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE TO BE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND REACH OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY DPVA AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INITIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY EVENING THE
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO SOME LOCAL ASSISTANCE FROM LIMITED LAKE INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NY FARTHEST REMOVED FROM ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTS OT 25-30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS FROM LAKE
ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 7-8K
FEET BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT A QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT
COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HILLS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...AND A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WEAKEN ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SW. ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL EVOLVE INTO SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC...
LEAVING A TRAILING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLING AWAY...
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST
AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. A
PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND TREND TOWARDS A COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FLIP/FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS. THE LATEST 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF RUNS NOW APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT...WITH SHEARED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO JUST NUISANCE SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT A POOR LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LOWEST CIGS AND VISIBILITY /WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE/ THROUGH
THE MORNING WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE
KJHW WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW AROUND
12Z.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE DELAYED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IF
WINDS BECOME CALM FRI NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
KROC.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL FORCE THE HIGHER WAVES
TO THE NORTH SHORES OF THE LAKES THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORES OF THE EASTERN LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
852 PM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND WEAKENED TO A
TO A TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN INLAND. THE SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL GENERATES A FEW
MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING BUT BY MIDNIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FINISHED. SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
LOW CLOUDS BUT ANY CLEARING AREA COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. A BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST FRIDAY WITH OUTER
MARINE ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 07/00Z TAFS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR KLMT TOWARD SUNRISE.
/SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST NOV 06 2014...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED ONSHORE. WEST SWELL OF 10 TO 11 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
ALONG WITH CHOPPY SEAS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. /SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM PST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TODAY MARKS THE END OF WHAT HAS BEEN A RATHER ACTIVE
PATTERN, BUT AT THE SAME TIME MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN OF
THE TYPE WE NORMALLY SEE IN THE WINTER. THAT IS TO SAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WITH VALLEY INVERSIONS, ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
MORNING FOG JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE TERM, BUT THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ACTUAL HIGHS AND LOWS, MOSTLY AS A RESULT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY FOG. THE EARLIER THE FOG FORMS
OVERNIGHT, THE WARMER THE LOW, WHILE THE LATER IT BURNS OFF IN THE
MORNING, IF EVER, THE LOWER THE HIGH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE FREQUENT
IN THIS REGARD, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY, RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS, MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WHILE THE FRONT IS
MORE DRY THAN MOST OF THE EVENTS SO FAR THIS SEASON, IT STILL IS
PACKING A BIT OF A PUNCH IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT. AS OF THIS
WRITING, THE FRONT HAS PASSED THE COASTLINE, AND WINDS THERE ARE
ON THE DECLINE. BUT ON THE EAST SIDE, AND ACROSS THE RIDGELINES
OF THE CASCADES, LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.
TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT, ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, HAVE
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE OUT A FEW
MORE HOURS. WINDS THERE WILL ALSO DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE, THOUGH USUALLY MORE OF A
SUMMER PATTERN, IS POSSIBLE THIS LATE IN THE YEAR, AND WOULD
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW WITH WARMING AND DRYING LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN FOG FORMATION
AND BEHAVIOR FOR THE WEST SIDE, WHICH JUST ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY
OF BOTH THE FOG AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES SOUTH EAST OF THE CASCADES. A
WEAK FRONT AND SOME VERY WEAK MOISTURE INFLOW MAY MOVE ONSHORE,
BUT WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT WILL BE HARD TO GET ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECASTS TOWARDS
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT LEFT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED
TERM. -BPN
LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NEAR THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) WILL BE LOWER THAN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS IT LOOKS LIKE
PACIFIC STORMS WILL WEAKEN INTO THE RIDGE AND MAY ONLY GIVE US
GLANCING BLOWS. AT THIS TIME...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY FOR THE COAST AND UMPQUA
BASIN.
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THAN THE
ECMWF NEXT WEEK. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MODEL (CANADIAN AND GFS
ENSEMBLES COMBINED)LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT
WEEK AND THIS IS OFTEN TELECONNECTED TO A MEAN RIDGE POSITION NEAR
THE WEST COAST. BASED ON THE ABOVE WE ARE TENDING TOWARD THE DRIER
SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS FOR WHAT IS TYPICALLY A WET TIME OF YEAR IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH A RIDGE PATTERN WOULD EXPECT THAT THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL SEE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THIS
DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SANDLER
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 07/00Z TAFS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR KLMT TOWARD SUNRISE.
SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST NOV 06 2014...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED ONSHORE. WEST SWELL OF 10 TO 11 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ALONG WITH
CHOPPY SEAS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
FJB/FJB/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WELL UNDERWAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT 19Z. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE N AND W.
HRRR AND RAP PLAY A VERY QUICK DEMISE TO THE LLVL INSTABILITY AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY OF THE REMAIN HIGH-BASED SHSN TO ONLY
FLURRIES FOR THE FAR W AND FAR W BY SUNSET. LAST BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE CURRENTLY PINGING CAMBRIA AND CLEARFIELD
COS....WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT DIES. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT AND MANY PLACE WILL BE CLEAR EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO BE ABLE
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. THE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND MINOR RIDGE MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW MTNS FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING AND COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN THE 3-5SM RANGE AT KBFD UNTIL
AROUND 00Z.
FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE KBFD...WHERE
MDL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS THRU
LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY...BUT STILL PRODUCE LIGHT
SHRA ON SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY TURN TO -SHSN OVER THE WRN MTS /JST
AND BFD/ BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL HAVE
A TOUGH TIME GETTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
WED...IFR IN SHSN POSS AND DEF LOW CIGS NW HALF. FLURRIES/MVFR
CIGS SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WELL UNDERWAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT 19Z. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE N AND W.
HRRR AND RAP PLAY A VERY QUICK DEMISE TO THE LLVL INSTABILITY AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY OF THE REMAIN HIGH-BASED SHSN TO ONLY
FLURRIES FOR THE FAR W AND FAR W BY SUNSET. LAST BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE CURRENTLY PINGING CAMBRIA AND CLEARFIELD
COS....WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT DIES. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT AND MANY PLACE WILL BE CLEAR EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO BE ABLE
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. THE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND MINOR RIDGE MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS NOW HIGH EVERYWHERE BUT RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE FAST MOVING SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW DOES DIP VIS AND CIGS TO IFR FOR A VERY BRIEF
TIME...BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE THAT OCCUR AFTER 21Z. JUST
BFD HANGS ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING POSS THERE LATER. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
SLACKENS THE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH JUST 5-7KT WINDS BY MIDNIGHT
AND NEARLY CALM WIND BY SUNRISE. WINDS BACK TO THE S THROUGH THE
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY...BUT STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHRA
ON SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY TURN TO -SHSN OVER THE WRN MTS /JST AND
BFD/ BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
WED...IFR IN SHSN POSS AND DEF LOW CIGS NW HALF. FLURRIES/MVFR
CIGS SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
242 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEARING WELL UNDERWAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT 19Z. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE N AND W.
HRRR AND RAP PLAY A VERY QUICK DEMISE TO THE LLVL INSTABILITY AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY OF THE REMAIN HIGH-BASED SHSN TO ONLY
FLURRIES FOR THE FAR W AND FAR W BY SUNSET. LAST BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE CURRENTLY PINGING CAMBRIA AND CLEARFIELD
COS....WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT DIES. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT AND MANY PLACE WILL BE CLEAR EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO BE ABLE
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. THE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND MINOR RIDGE MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE TRANQUIL AND MILD SIDE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN
GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A DEVELOP WAVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS NOW HIGH EVERYWHERE BUT RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE FAST MOVING SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW DOES DIP VIS AND CIGS TO IFR FOR A VERY BRIEF
TIME...BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE THAT OCCUR AFTER 21Z. JUST
BFD HANGS ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING POSS THERE LATER. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
SLACKENS THE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH JUST 5-7KT WINDS BY MIDNIGHT
AND NEARLY CALM WIND BY SUNRISE. WINDS BACK TO THE S THROUGH THE
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY...BUT STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHRA
ON SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY TURN TO -SHSN OVER THE WRN MTS /JST AND
BFD/ BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
WED...IFR IN SHSN POSS AND DEF LOW CIGS NW HALF. FLURRIES/MVFR
CIGS SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE NOVEMBER ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOTS.
WEB CAMS SHOWING A DUSTING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE VERY HIGHEST
OF ELEVATIONS LATE THIS MORNING...ESP AROUND CRESSON/EBENSBURG.
WINDS PRETTY STRONG WITH LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTENSIFYING
AND A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10MB FROM W-E ACROSS THE STATE. GRADIENT
SLACKENS THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE 10KTS UNTIL CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND RUC BOTH LIFT THE CURRENT/BEST CONVERGENT
ZONE/BAND FLOWING INTO CAMBRIA COUNTY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS STILL MARGINAL ON ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVS AND WITH SUN POKING THROUGH AT TIMES...IT SHOULD
MAKE ACCUMULATION TOUGH TO OCCUR.
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS OVER
SERN SECTIONS AND THE MOST HANGING IN OVER THE NW. THE INVERSION
HEIGHT WILL COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER
THE AREA SO ANY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 20S WHICH WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ABOUT
HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF FAIR BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
BEGINNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PARENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SHEARING OFF TO OUR NORTH SO MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOST OF THESE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST
AND NORTH. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE TRANQUIL AND MILD SIDE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN
GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A DEVELOP WAVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S AT
TIMES. STRIATED CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COVER
THE REGION...BUT GOOD CLEARING OCCURRING OVER MDT/LNS AT 16Z. CIGS
LIFTING...EVEN AT BFD AND JST. ONLY THE OCCASIONAL DIP INTO IFR
THERE...BUT IN BETWEEN THE CIGS AND VIS ARE VFR.
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFT INTO SAT...AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY...THE FROM THE SW...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHRASN DIMINISH AFT 21Z FOR JST AND AFT 00Z
FOR BFD. THE CIG MAY TRY TO CREEP BACK TO MVFR AT BFD THIS
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY SETTLE ON VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...CFROPA WITH SCT SHRA/SN WEST. MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL.
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING
THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CREATE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS PASSING DURING THE
WEEKEND AND ANOTHER BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC LOW NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
STRENGTHEN QUICKLY /TO NEAR 990 MB/ AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE NRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH JUST SOME BRIEF...ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SUSQ VALLEY.
INCREASINGLY COLD...AND WELL-ALIGNED/DEEP NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS TWD DAYBREAK FRIDAY FROM KBFD...SOUTH TO KFIG AND KJST.
A STRONG SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL CROSS WRN NY STATE AND PASS OVER
NRN AND ERN PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS DYNAMIC TROUGH
WILL CREATE PLENTY OF LIFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY WHEN PULLING MSTR
OFF LK ONT AND ERN LK ERIE. TEMP PROFILES OFF THE LATEST HOST OF
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...HRRR AND RAP ALL INDICATE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR EVEN AS LATE AS
SUNRISE ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS /ESP ACROSS
SOMERSET COUNTY/ WILL COOL OFF A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE LOWER
ELEVS AND FEEL THAT SOME SNOW WILL MIX IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LIGHT ACCUMS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH.
LOW TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY BRINGS THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WITH 8H TEMPS DIPPING
TO AROUND -10C IN THE N AND TO ABOUT -6C IN THE SRN COS. THE TEMP
PROFILE AT BFD LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW FALLING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT UNLESS IT IS REALLY COMING DOWN...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
MAKE IT STICK. WILL STILL MENTION MINOR ACCUMS DUE TO THE
PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD IN-CLOUD TEMPS AND MARGINAL
SFC TEMPS. THE LAURELS HAVE A GOOD HURON CONNECTION SETTING UP.
BUT THE INITIAL TEMP PROFILE IS WARMER THERE THAN THE NRN MTNS.
SO...MINOR ACCUMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THERE BUT IT MAY ONLY DIP DOWN
TO 1500FT OR SO. WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE WITH THIS AND JUST PAINT
A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUM WITH A SLIGHT BIT MORE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVS OF SRN SOMERSET CO. MAXES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE U30S N
AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SERN CITIES. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
NICELY FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME FRIDAY NIGHT - BUT CLOUD UP AGAIN
OVER THE NWRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AS HIGH/MID CLOUDS
MOVE IN. WHILE THE TEMPS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER A BIT IN THE
NW...AND PERHAPS EVEN RISE A LITTLE BEFORE SAT MORNING...IT SHOULD
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE EVERYBODY WILL FREEZE. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE AREA AND ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF THE POPULATION OF THE CWA. THE ISSUANCE OF
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAS ALREADY BEEN STOPPED DUE TO THE LATER
THAN NORMAL FIRST FREEZE IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO NO
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED UNTIL SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE AND COLDER WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE CONUS. SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING THE STATE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...AIDED BY SRN
STREAM ENERGY...WILL LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE
OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF
PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUE...WITH SFC LOW FORMATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS PA
ON WED BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST SIG PCPN EVENT OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY STRONG JET MAX WILL DROP SE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE...THE
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.
STILL FOG AT LNS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PA WILL TRANSFER
IT/S REMAINING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER NEW ENG
TONIGHT. THE RESULTING NW FLOW WILL DRAW DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING
FLYING CONDS INTO EASTERN PA OVERNIGHT. AS OF 03Z...IFR VSBYS
STILL NOTED AT KLNS. HOWEVER...LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA SUGGESTS CONDS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THERE SOMETIME IN THE 04Z-07Z. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE FORCED TO ASCEND THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PRODUCE
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST OVERNIGHT.
ALL MDL DATA IS POINTING TOWARD IMPROVING CIGS ACROSS THE W MTNS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY BY AFTN. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF COASTAL LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND
30KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN HOURS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH. DIMINISHING WIND IS
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL MB WITH MAIN COOL FRONT
ABOUT READY TO EXIT CWA AS IT THRUSTS INTO WESTERN NE. PEAK
MIXING/ISALLOBARIC FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST HIGHEST WINDS ARE
ABOUT DONE. 18Z NAM/20Z RAP SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL TAKE A
CLOSE LOOK AT 300PM OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DETERMINATION ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING...CERTAINLY
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE IF WARNING IS DROPPED.
LAST BATCH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HITTING THE HILLS
WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY CREATE BREEZY SPOTS ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE MILD
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...STILL LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST COULD INCREASE AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP...AND SO THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SECONDARY WAVE/UPPER LOW STILL PLANS ON BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. WITH
SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS...POSSIBLY MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST...AND NOW ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WITH THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-
030-041-042-044-046-047-049-074.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
341 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT OBS SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO MAKING THE WIND FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AS FAR NORTH AS
GUYMON EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOW WELL INTO THE 70S. A SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO WILL IMPINGE ON THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THESE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT FORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
BRB
.LONG TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...AND A
STRONG SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
FAIRLY STABLE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN 1040-1050MB WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL ANCHOR THE COLDER AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWA COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. IF THE HARD FREEZE DOESN/T OCCUR
TUESDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND MID 20S
ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...AND WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...IT COULD BE THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME THE
SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHETHER IT WILL BE ALL
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR IF IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL...SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
CE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
HAVE INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT PRESSURE RISE IN ITS WAKE
PROGGED...AROUND 1 MB/HR...WHICH WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD YIELD SOME GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. HIGHEST
GUSTS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER OUR TYPICALLY WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM-NEST ALSO DEPICT SIMILAR GUSTS.
DUE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHEST GUST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS COMES THROUGH THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY
EVIDENT ON RADAR/OBS OUT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SLIGHT WARM
LAYER CAUSING SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWFLAKES BEFORE THEY REACH THE
GROUND. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS BAND
COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS MORNING...BUT 07.08Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE RH WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AT 10-15KFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW IT. BASED ON THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THIS
WAA MOVES THROUGH.
THE DEEPER LIFT COMES IN THIS EVENING AS A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE...EXPECT
THIS EVENING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
FALL. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE WARM LAYER HUGS THE
1-2C LINE WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FULLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES
INTO RAIN DROPS. RATHER THAN SNOW...THINK THAT SOME PELLETS/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT IN NC WI.
THE OTHER STORY FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS TO CLIMB UP AROUND
25 MPH. BASED ON THE 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS...GUSTS UP TO 40MPH
LOOK LIKELY BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING. IT IS GOING TO BE
A BORDERLINE CASE FOR A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR MASS THAT
WILL SET UP SHOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS THERE IS ONE OTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM AS ALL OF THE
07.00Z GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE TIMING OF IT WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST IN HAVING IT COME THROUGH NC WI SATURDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH HAVING IT COME
THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NAM NOT
EVEN HAVING A SYSTEM. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH AND
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10-14/1...EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER
GETTING IN THERE...SO WE MAY BE OVERDOING THE SNOW/TO COLD ON
TEMPS IF THAT FEATURE DOES SHOW UP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARD TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ON
MONDAY WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO DROP THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THIS SEASON. THE
07.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL
TIMING OF HAVING THE FRONTOGENETIC LIFT DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIFT IS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES WITH THE MID LEVEL
FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL REGION...SO AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRENDS NORTHWARD. IT IS A
LITTLE EARLY TO START TALKING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THE LATEST TREND
IS FAVORITING THE CORRIDOR FROM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND STAY HERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
ITSELF IS NOT LOOKING ANOMALOUSLY COLD/RECORD BREAKING...BUT IT
WILL FEEL THAT WAY SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT COLD THIS
SEASON. WHAT EVER SNOW FALLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLD DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULDNT REDUCE VISIBILITY. THAT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT FOR THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING ENDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM MID TO LATE
EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS SETTLING IN SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST 30-40 KT...STRONGEST AT RST. LOOK FOR THE WINDS
TO STAY GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
IAZ008-009-018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
544 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS COMES THROUGH THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY
EVIDENT ON RADAR/OBS OUT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SLIGHT WARM
LAYER CAUSING SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWFLAKES BEFORE THEY REACH THE
GROUND. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS BAND
COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS MORNING...BUT 07.08Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE RH WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AT 10-15KFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW IT. BASED ON THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THIS
WAA MOVES THROUGH.
THE DEEPER LIFT COMES IN THIS EVENING AS A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE...EXPECT
THIS EVENING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
FALL. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE WARM LAYER HUGS THE
1-2C LINE WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FULLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES
INTO RAIN DROPS. RATHER THAN SNOW...THINK THAT SOME PELLETS/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT IN NC WI.
THE OTHER STORY FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS TO CLIMB UP AROUND
25 MPH. BASED ON THE 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS...GUSTS UP TO 40MPH
LOOK LIKELY BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING. IT IS GOING TO BE
A BORDERLINE CASE FOR A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR MASS THAT
WILL SET UP SHOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS THERE IS ONE OTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM AS ALL OF THE
07.00Z GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE TIMING OF IT WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST IN HAVING IT COME THROUGH NC WI SATURDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH HAVING IT COME
THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NAM NOT
EVEN HAVING A SYSTEM. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH AND
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10-14/1...EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER
GETTING IN THERE...SO WE MAY BE OVERDOING THE SNOW/TO COLD ON
TEMPS IF THAT FEATURE DOES SHOW UP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARD TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ON
MONDAY WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO DROP THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THIS SEASON. THE
07.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL
TIMING OF HAVING THE FRONTOGENETIC LIFT DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIFT IS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES WITH THE MID LEVEL
FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL REGION...SO AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRENDS NORTHWARD. IT IS A
LITTLE EARLY TO START TALKING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THE LATEST TREND
IS FAVORITING THE CORRIDOR FROM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND STAY HERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
ITSELF IS NOT LOOKING ANOMALOUSLY COLD/RECORD BREAKING...BUT IT
WILL FEEL THAT WAY SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT COLD THIS
SEASON. WHAT EVER SNOW FALLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BRINING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON CLOUD BASES FALLING TO AROUND 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 36 KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...STRATUS LOOKS TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO 2KFT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS COMES THROUGH THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY
EVIDENT ON RADAR/OBS OUT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SLIGHT WARM
LAYER CAUSING SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWFLAKES BEFORE THEY REACH THE
GROUND. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS BAND
COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS MORNING...BUT 07.08Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE RH WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AT 10-15KFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW IT. BASED ON THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THIS
WAA MOVES THROUGH.
THE DEEPER LIFT COMES IN THIS EVENING AS A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE...EXPECT
THIS EVENING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
FALL. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE WARM LAYER HUGS THE
1-2C LINE WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FULLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES
INTO RAIN DROPS. RATHER THAN SNOW...THINK THAT SOME PELLETS/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT IN NC WI.
THE OTHER STORY FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS TO CLIMB UP AROUND
25 MPH. BASED ON THE 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS...GUSTS UP TO 40MPH
LOOK LIKELY BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING. IT IS GOING TO BE
A BORDERLINE CASE FOR A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR MASS THAT
WILL SET UP SHOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS THERE IS ONE OTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM AS ALL OF THE
07.00Z GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE TIMING OF IT WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST IN HAVING IT COME THROUGH NC WI SATURDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH HAVING IT COME
THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NAM NOT
EVEN HAVING A SYSTEM. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH AND
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10-14/1...EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER
GETTING IN THERE...SO WE MAY BE OVERDOING THE SNOW/TO COLD ON
TEMPS IF THAT FEATURE DOES SHOW UP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARD TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ON
MONDAY WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO DROP THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THIS SEASON. THE
07.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL
TIMING OF HAVING THE FRONTOGENETIC LIFT DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIFT IS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES WITH THE MID LEVEL
FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL REGION...SO AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRENDS NORTHWARD. IT IS A
LITTLE EARLY TO START TALKING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THE LATEST TREND
IS FAVORITING THE CORRIDOR FROM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND STAY HERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
ITSELF IS NOT LOOKING ANOMALOUSLY COLD/RECORD BREAKING...BUT IT
WILL FEEL THAT WAY SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT COLD THIS
SEASON. WHAT EVER SNOW FALLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AT TAF AIRFIELDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT
ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRST.
INTRODUCED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 08.01Z AND 08.03Z FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE HEADING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES.
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG OMEGA ABOVE 600 MB...THEY ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB ALONG
INTERSTATE 90. CONSIDERING THE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE 850 MB BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO A HALF INCH/ IN TAYLOR COUNTY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH GENERATES. SOUNDINGS SHOWS
SATURATION ABOVE 750 MB WITH DRY AIR BELOW. DUE TO THIS...IT IS
VERY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER WE WILL GET ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND THEN THIS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A TIGHT
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
THEIR LOCATION OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. WITH THIS LOCATION...THE WEAK TO MODERATE 925 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ITS SNOW TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES. WHILE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...THE ECMWF HAS NOT
BEEN. WHILE IT HAS BEEN SHIFTING THIS BAND NORTH AND SOUTH QUITE
A BIT...IT IS STILL AFFECTING SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
ITS 06.00Z RUN...IT WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT ITS 06.12Z
IS MUCH CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN IS THAT THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA. TOTAL SNOW FROM THE LATEST RUN HAS A 6 TO 9 INCH BAND ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE THE GFS...THE GEM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH IT TRACK NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
/ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ AND THAT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION TO
PUT OUT THIS HEADLINE IS NOT. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOMALOUS COLD 850 MB AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -12 AND -16C AND THE GFS IS RUNNING BETWEEN
-10 TO -14C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AT TAF AIRFIELDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT
ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRST.
INTRODUCED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 08.01Z AND 08.03Z FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50.
A MINOR WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND COULD AFFORD A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
ROUTE 6. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACRS REGION TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO
BACKED/ZONAL LATER THIS AM IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS NRN
ONTARIO CENTERED LOW BECOMES ELONGATED E-W FASHION...UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CHANNEL VORT ACRS ECTL MN/CNTL WI TO STEER LEFT
AND EXPECT SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS /LIGHT RASN/ TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CWA TODAY...PRIMARILY THROUGH CNTL LWR MI/PERHAPS APPROACHING I94
CORRIDOR. RUC13 LOW LEVEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING
GNRLY 75MB PLUS...ALSO SUPPORT A DRY HOLD ACRS CWA. WHILE FAIRLY
THICK/OMNIPRESENT CLOUD COVER TO STIFLE DIURNAL RISES...MODEST
WAA INADVOF FRONTAL ZONE LAYING OUT ACRS SRN GRTLKS REGION
TONIGHT...GIVES NOD TOWARD SLIGHT INCRS IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...ESPCLY WRN CWA. MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION TO EJECT
FROM GLACIER NP AMID RAPID 150 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS SRN BC. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER LATITUDE TRACK THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INCRSD MID
LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SHRA AND/OR SPRINKLES
ACRS FAR NRN TIER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND STALL OUT OF
FRONTAL ZONE LEAVING CWA IN WARM SECTOR HAVE CONFIDENTLY RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MAJOR SYSTEM FOR DYS3/4 BREWING AS EPAC
RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD SUNDAY WITH AN INTENSE COHESIVE DIG ENSUING
ACRS CANADIAN/NRN ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A MASSIVE CYCLONE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL.
HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER
BRINGING COLD AIR TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A MAJOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING REGIME BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS...ECMWF...12KM NAM AND GEM FAVORING A MORE NORTHWEST SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SOME CHANCES FOR
NON SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THUNDER OUT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND STABILITY IS MARGINAL. GIVEN THE MORE
NORTHWEST LOW TRACK...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN SOME POST
FRONTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY
COLD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 33F TO 37F WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...THESE HIGHS ARE
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. ALSO...THE
GFS/MEX/MOS HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THESE COLDER HIGHS AT
SOUTH BEND. IT IS PLAUSIBLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ADVERTISED BY
THE ECMWF ARE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN
FOR LLWS POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET AS 2KFT WINDS VEER/RAMP AHEAD OF
FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50.
A MINOR WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND COULD AFFORD A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
ROUTE 6. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACRS REGION TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO
BACKED/ZONAL LATER THIS AM IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS NRN
ONTARIO CENTERED LOW BECOMES ELONGATED E-W FASHION...UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CHANNEL VORT ACRS ECTL MN/CNTL WI TO STEER LEFT
AND EXPECT SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS /LIGHT RASN/ TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CWA TODAY...PRIMARILY THROUGH CNTL LWR MI/PERHAPS APPROACHING I94
CORRIDOR. RUC13 LOW LEVEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING
GNRLY 75MB PLUS...ALSO SUPPORT A DRY HOLD ACRS CWA. WHILE FAIRLY
THICK/OMNIPRESENT CLOUD COVER TO STIFLE DIURNAL RISES...MODEST
WAA INADVOF FRONTAL ZONE LAYING OUT ACRS SRN GRTLKS REGION
TONIGHT...GIVES NOD TOWARD SLIGHT INCRS IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...ESPCLY WRN CWA. MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION TO EJECT
FROM GLACIER NP AMID RAPID 150 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS SRN BC. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER LATITUDE TRACK THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INCRSD MID
LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SHRA AND/OR SPRINKLES
ACRS FAR NRN TIER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND STALL OUT OF
FRONTAL ZONE LEAVING CWA IN WARM SECTOR HAVE CONFIDENTLY RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MAJOR SYSTEM FOR DYS3/4 BREWING AS EPAC
RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD SUNDAY WITH AN INTENSE COHESIVE DIG ENSUING
ACRS CANADIAN/NRN ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014
TREMENDOUS CYCLONE UP ACRS THE BERING SEA THIS AFTN YIELDING
VOLITALE AND INCONSISTENT DOWNSTREAM HANDLING OF IMPORTANT FTRS
THIS PD. OF NOTE IS MORE VIGOROUS FNTL WAVE DVLPMNT ALG ARCTIC
DRAPE MON-TUE TIED TO BIFURCATING H5 TROUGH ENERGY W/MORE SIG WWD
ELONGATION OF H5 HGTS AND SHARPER EWD TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS
THE LAKES LT PD...THE RAMIFICATIONS OF WHICH ARE QUITE SIG TO
GOING FCST. 12Z CONSENSUS EVOLUTION ALOFT ACRS NOAM YIELDS A
SLWR/DEEPER SFC REFLECTION AND AS SUCH SLWR INTRUSION OF CAA WING
AS WELL AN EXISTENTIAL SPLIT ACRS CWA OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP MON-TUE. WILL HOLD W/PRIOR TUE POPS GIVEN SHARP CDFNTL
PASSAGE YET OTRWS DROP MENTION ALTOGETHER MON-MON NIGHT.
IN ADDN...SLWR STANCE TIED TO SLWR EWD EJECTING WWD DISTURBANCE
ALLOWS FOR CURTAILING PRIOR SHSN MENTION WED YET BUMPS POPS
HIGHER THU-THU NIGHT PDS. REGARDLESS TEMPS VRY COLD W/DEPARTURES
15-20 BLO NORMAL DYS 5 THROUGH AT LEAST DY12 IF NOT LONGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN
FOR LLWS POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET AS 2KFT WINDS VEER/RAMP AHEAD OF
FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1248 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A DEEP AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING COLD AIR TO SPILL
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY...BUT QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 11Z...SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS
BY 21Z AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINTER WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC DEBUT NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND IS WHY TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BEFORE
FALLING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY CAUSING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
SWINGS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM A
RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP...AND EXPECT
VIRTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE COLDEST VALUES OF
THE YEAR WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MEAN JET POSITION CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS BECOME
MORE DIVERGES ON THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT OVERALL
DEPICT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS LATE IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 11Z...SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS
BY 21Z AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEK. A SECOND
WEAKER ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB MAY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR A WEEK OR LONGER IN SOME AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH TODAY INTO
CNTL SOUTH DAKOTA. ALL 12 MODELS SHOW WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT
TO THE NORTH. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS...FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS MIGHT NOT WORK THOUGH GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST.
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD POOL MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE NAM SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE ARRIVAL RUNNING SOME 3 HOURS /OR
MORE/ SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO. THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH...WITH MID TO LATE MORNING HIGHS MONDAY APPROACHING 10C SOUTH
OF I80 /OR WARMER/. FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH AS
THE NAM IS INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S FOR OUR SOUTH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. NORTH HOWEVER...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
NON-DIURNAL HIGHS AS STRONG CAA FILTERS SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 0C ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER ON MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN THREAT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON AN
AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVERLAID BY A LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA OVER THE DAKOTAS....BUT SUGGEST SOME IMPACT TO
OUR NORTHERN CWA. BUT THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LESS THAN IDEAL
MOISTURE PROFILE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE IN THIS AREA...WHERE THE ARE
TIMES THAT SATURATION ONLY EXISTS BELOW THE DGZ. A MIXED BAG OF
P-TYPES WILL BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTH...WITH THE PRIMARY MODE
BEING POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BOTH NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS POINT TO SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
KVTN MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST...MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW RATHER THAN
THE DRIZZLE.
THE 09.00Z GFS/EC IS ENTERTAINING TONIGHT WITH IT/S PROJECTION OF A
SECONDARY FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT SANDHILLS. THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS SHOWN TO
OVERCOME THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE /DISPLAYED BY LOW AND MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DOWNGLIDE IN AGEOSTROPHIC CROSS SECTIONS/ TO
PRODUCE A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT QPF LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IN CONTRAST IS LARGELY IGNORING THIS
SECONDARY BAND. THE IDEA 24 HOURS AGO WAS TO TREND BACK THE POP
FORECAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...BUT TONIGHT THAT
HAS CHANGED. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER END
CHANCE WORDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY FOR THE ABOVE
POTENTIAL. IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON RAPID SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTE THAT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE EVENTUAL QPF WILL FALL IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS THE MESOSCALE FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE THE SNOW PRODUCTION. THESE
TYPE CASES THE MODELS SEEM TO OVER ESTIMATE THE WIDTH OF THE SNOW
BAND/S/...WHICH WILL BE TRUE IN THIS CASE...REVISIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WHAT IS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR
SINCE LATE LAST WINTER WILL ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH. FORECAST HIGHS MID-WEEK MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH INTO THE 20S...AND DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...SUB ZERO LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
OUTBREAK IS HERE TO STAY...WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...IF NOT LONGER.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY WEAK WAVE WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN SUFFICIENT SATURATION. THE
DGZ WILL LOWER WELL BELOW H85 MID WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WAVE IS SHOWN TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR IN THE REGION. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR LIGHT QPF...ONLY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC
WAVE CRUISING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AGAIN
LIGHT QPF IS SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. CIGS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 20000 TO 25000 FT AGL. LOOK FOR CIGS TO DROP TO
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL ON SUNDAY...FALLING TO AROUND 10000 FT AGL
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS
TONIGHT...BECOMING WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50.
A MINOR WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND COULD AFFORD A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
ROUTE 6. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACRS REGION TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO
BACKED/ZONAL LATER THIS AM IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS NRN
ONTARIO CENTERED LOW BECOMES ELONGATED E-W FASHION...UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CHANNEL VORT ACRS ECTL MN/CNTL WI TO STEER LEFT
AND EXPECT SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS /LIGHT RASN/ TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CWA TODAY...PRIMARILY THROUGH CNTL LWR MI/PERHAPS APPROACHING I94
CORRIDOR. RUC13 LOW LEVEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING
GNRLY 75MB PLUS...ALSO SUPPORT A DRY HOLD ACRS CWA. WHILE FAIRLY
THICK/OMNIPRESENT CLOUD COVER TO STIFLE DIURNAL RISES...MODEST
WAA INADVOF FRONTAL ZONE LAYING OUT ACRS SRN GRTLKS REGION
TONIGHT...GIVES NOD TOWARD SLIGHT INCRS IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...ESPCLY WRN CWA. MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION TO EJECT
FROM GLACIER NP AMID RAPID 150 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS SRN BC. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER LATITUDE TRACK THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INCRSD MID
LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SHRA AND/OR SPRINKLES
ACRS FAR NRN TIER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND STALL OUT OF
FRONTAL ZONE LEAVING CWA IN WARM SECTOR HAVE CONFIDENTLY RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MAJOR SYSTEM FOR DYS3/4 BREWING AS EPAC
RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD SUNDAY WITH AN INTENSE COHESIVE DIG ENSUING
ACRS CANADIAN/NRN ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A MASSIVE CYCLONE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL.
HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER
BRINGING COLD AIR TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A MAJOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING REGIME BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS...ECMWF...12KM NAM AND GEM FAVORING A MORE NORTHWEST SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SOME CHANCES FOR
NON SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THUNDER OUT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND STABILITY IS MARGINAL. GIVEN THE MORE
NORTHWEST LOW TRACK...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN SOME POST
FRONTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY
COLD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 33F TO 37F WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...THESE HIGHS ARE
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. ALSO...THE
GFS/MEX/MOS HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THESE COLDER HIGHS AT
SOUTH BEND. IT IS PLAUSIBLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ADVERTISED BY
THE ECMWF ARE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
NO SIG CHNGS WRT 12 UTC TAFS FOR NRN IN. VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
STALL THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF
TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS POTENTIAL
AFTER SUNSET AS 2KFT WINDS VEER/RAMP AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1049 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
WE HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FCST THIS MORNING TO TIGHTEN UP PCPN CHCS
A LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS WAS MAINLY TO
INCREASE THE CHCS A BIT TO THE NORTH WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING...AND LOWER
THE CHCS ON THE SRN EDGE WHERE PCPN TAPERS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT OUR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WARMER LAKE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VSBYS
HAVE NOT DROPPED DOWN TOO LOW AT ANY LOCATION...SO IT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER LIGHT IN NATURE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT ANY SNOW WITH
THE LFQ OF THIS JET STREAK WILL SWITCH TO RAIN AS WE HAVE SOME
DIURNAL HEATING TAKE PLACE AND AS WE SEE SOME SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR
ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON THE SW FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE HRRR RUC MODEL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SNOW THIS
MORNING COULD ACCUMULATE MORE THAN FORECASTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP 12Z TO 13Z AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS
SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE REED CITY TO CADILLAC
CORRIDOR. ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE PAST
HOUR AND ARE NOW AROUND FREEZING IN THAT REGION. THEY COULD GO UP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NEXT HOUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RISES COULD BE OFFSET AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WILL
BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS. OUR PLAN IS TO SEND OUT A MESSAGE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA ALONG WITH AN SPS BY 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.
WE MAY SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING IN
THE LUDINGTON TO HARRISON REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT IN THE
MOIST DGZ SUPPORTS THIS RISK. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THEN LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM...ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST NORTHERN LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS HERE AS GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE
MAIN AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS LUDINGTON TO HARRISON.
THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH OF HARRISON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WE COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX BY 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
FULL AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEPARTS...H8 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM AROUND +3C AT 00Z
WED TO AROUND -11C BY 12Z WED. ANY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
WILL QUICK SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. BUT THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXITING...SO IT APPEARS ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT AROUND AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO SWING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPAWN HEALTHIER LAKE BANDS. THIS
AGAIN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. I
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RAIN FOR THE TAFS SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI. IF
YOU WERE FLYING NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR...IFR AND LOWER IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF A
TEMPORARY LOWER CONDITION THIS MORNING FOR KMKG. HOWEVER TONIGHT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THAT SUPPORTS
MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO RESULTING IN CYCLONIC WNW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF 280K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CENTRAL MN
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI AND NRN WI. OTHERWISE...ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MI...PER SFC
OBS. KMQT RADAR IS NOT AVBL DUE TO A MECHANICAL FAILURE.
TODAY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR DIV IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -11C (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR
6C)...LES WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW SUCH AS
THE KEWEENAW AND NE UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN A HALF INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
MUNISING DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER FETCH.
TONIGHT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-12C AND WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LES GOING. HOWEVER...AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINING LES WILL
ALSO DIMINISH WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OVER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
SINCE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS HANDLING EXPECTED LES WED THROUGH
SAT...PUT TIME AND ATTENTION INTO THE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME WHEN A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA...POSSIBLY
WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
FOR THE EARLY-MID WEEK SYSTEM...
OVERALL SETUP...A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
LEEWARD CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO/WRN NE/WRN KS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...WHICH RESULTS IN A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY MON AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING THERMAL GRADIENT N OF THE SFC
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF FGEN /AND PRECIPITATION/
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW MON MORNING. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER JET WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH UNTIL THE FAVORABLE FORCING
REGION FROM THE JET MOVES E BY 12Z TUE. HOWEVER...THE SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY COMPLETE LOSS OF THE UPPER JET FORCING WILL BE
INCREASINGLY OFFSET BY LOWER LEVEL FORCING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
THE SRN PORTION OF THE REGION BY 12Z TUE. THE LOW STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
IS BECOMING BETTER AGREED ON BY MODELS...SHOWING THE A ROUGHLY
1003MB SFC LOW NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER AT 12Z TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO IA. STILL AM STICKING WITH 12Z/08 ECMWF AND 00Z/09 GFS
GUIDANCE WHICH AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND AM TOSSING OUT THE
00Z/09 NAM /WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
HAS QUITE A BIT HIGHER QPF/ AND ALSO USING LESS OF THE 00Z/09 NHEM
GEM AS IS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AND HAS ONLY JUST COME INTO LINE WITH
THE OTHER MODELS. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI ON TUE AT AROUND
1000MB. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP MAINLY MON AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL /WITH PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER AMOUNTS/ UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MODELS HAVE ALSO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON LAGGING THE QPF INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
POLAR LOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE ROTATED AROUND MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE
AREA. INTERESTING AND UNUSUAL SYSTEM IN THAT THE FGEN WILL BE FAIRLY
FAR REMOVED FROM THE SFC LOW...AND ALSO THAT A STRONG HIGH AND THAT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR TO THE N THAT THE FGEN WILL WRAP
IN...THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT IS OFTEN SEEN
WHEN THESE STRONG FGEN CASES OCCUR. WHAT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DOES FOR THE AREA IS IT KEEP THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE PERSISTENT NE/NNE LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND SUPPORTIVE 850MB TEMPS. SHOULD EASILY SEE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN NE FLOW FAVORED AREAS...WITH GREATER
QPF/SNOW THAN IS SHOWN BY THE LARGER SCALE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. WINDS
DO LOOK TO TURN MORE N-NW TUE NIGHT...SO FAVORED AREAS WILL SHIFT AT
THAT POINT. ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP /INSTEAD OF ALL
SNOW/ IS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI WHERE WARMER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOSE IN.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN LINE WITH A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH GIVES WIDESPREAD 1-1.30 INCHES.
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS MAY
BE OBSERVED DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK...ALSO HAVE JUST OVER 1.5
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ARE FAVORED. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY N
WITH THE TRACK...SO KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY STILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE HEADLINES. ALSO...EVEN WITH MANUALLY INCREASING QPF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS AREA WIDE
QPF HIGHER THAN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED
AREAS. IF THE HIGHER AREA WIDE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DID
VERIFY...COULD EASILY SEE 2.00 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 2.50 INCHES OF QPF
IN THE ENHANCED AREAS OF THE NCENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREFERRED...SO A MORE MODERATED/BLENDED
SOLUTION WAS APPLIED. FROM IWD TO MQT TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THE DGZ WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND NOT ALL THAT
THICK...A 200-300MB THICK LAYER BELOW THE DGZ WILL BE NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL AND STILL COLDER THAN -8C. ALSO...VERTICAL MOTION WILL
BE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW-MID LEVELS...SO THAT SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE AROUND 15 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. N OF THE IWD TO ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LINE...THE DGZ WILL BE LOWER AND THICKER...SO HIGHER
SLR VALUES WILL BE OBSERVED. THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FARTHER S. ALL
THIS SAID...HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM MON THROUGH TUE OF
12-17 INCHES...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...HAVE UP TO 22 INCHES OF SNOW. OVER THE NRN
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR ERN UPPER MI HAVE 9-12 INCHES OF SNOW.
NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY HAVE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LOW
NEAR MENOMINEE WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
DECIDED TO PUSH HEADLINES BACK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES GIVEN A
SLOWER TREND TO GUIDANCE. ALSO...ADDED NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY TO THE
WATCH. DID NOT GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS TO ALLOW FOR BETTER
REFINEMENT OF AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH THIS
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS EARLY TODAY
AT SAW...CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WNW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE EXPOSED
CMX LOCATION BEFORE THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD NE TO N GALES
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI INTO THE
15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ002-003-006-007-013-014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ009>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE HRRR RUC MODEL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SNOW THIS
MORNING COULD ACCUMULATE MORE THAN FORECASTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP 12Z TO 13Z AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS
SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE REED CITY TO CADILLAC
CORRIDOR. ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE PAST
HOUR AND ARE NOW AROUND FREEZING IN THAT REGION. THEY COULD GO UP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NEXT HOUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RISES COULD BE OFFSET AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WILL
BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS. OUR PLAN IS TO SEND OUT A MESSAGE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA ALONG WITH AN SPS BY 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.
WE MAY SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING IN
THE LUDINGTON TO HARRISON REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT IN THE
MOIST DGZ SUPPORTS THIS RISK. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THEN LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM...ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST NORTHERN LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS HERE AS GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE
MAIN AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS LUDINGTON TO HARRISON.
THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH OF HARRISON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WE COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX BY 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
FULL AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEPARTS...H8 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM AROUND +3C AT 00Z
WED TO AROUND -11C BY 12Z WED. ANY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
WILL QUICK SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. BUT THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXITING...SO IT APPEARS ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT AROUND AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO SWING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPAWN HEALTHIER LAKE BANDS. THIS
AGAIN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. I
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RAIN FOR THE TAFS SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI. IF
YOU WERE FLYING NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR...IFR AND LOWER IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF A
TEMPORARY LOWER CONDITION THIS MORNING FOR KMKG. HOWEVER TONIGHT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THAT SUPPORTS
MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
529 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE HRRR RUC MODEL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SNOW THIS
MORNING COULD ACCUMULATE MORE THAN FORECASTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP 12Z TO 13Z AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS
SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE REED CITY TO CADILLAC
CORRIDOR. ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE PAST
HOUR AND ARE NOW AROUND FREEZING IN THAT REGION. THEY COULD GO UP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NEXT HOUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RISES COULD BE OFFSET AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WILL
BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS. OUR PLAN IS TO SEND OUT A MESSAGE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA ALONG WITH AN SPS BY 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.
WE MAY SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING IN
THE LUDINGTON TO HARRISON REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT IN THE
MOIST DGZ SUPPORTS THIS RISK. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THEN LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM...ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST NORTHERN LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS HERE AS GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE
MAIN AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS LUDINGTON TO HARRISON.
THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH OF HARRISON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WE COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX BY 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
FULL AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEPARTS...H8 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM AROUND +3C AT 00Z
WED TO AROUND -11C BY 12Z WED. ANY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
WILL QUICK SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. BUT THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXITING...SO IT APPEARS ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT AROUND AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO SWING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPAWN HEALTHIER LAKE BANDS. THIS
AGAIN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER AN AREA OF PCPN WILL BE ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE I-96 TAF SITES...THIS COULD
BRIEFLY BRING IN MVFR VSBYS. HOWEVER ANY SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS WE WARM TOWARD MID DAY AND THE PCPN CHANGES TO ALL RAIN.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL PREVAIL. A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE SEEN AFTER NIGHTFALL...
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR BY LATE EVENING.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME...GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL DROP OFF AGAIN BY NIGHTFALL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO RESULTING IN CYCLONIC WNW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF 280K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CENTRAL MN
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI AND NRN WI. OTHERWISE...ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MI...PER SFC
OBS. KMQT RADAR IS NOT AVBL DUE TO A MECHANICAL FAILURE.
TODAY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR DIV IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -11C (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR
6C)...LES WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW SUCH AS
THE KEWEENAW AND NE UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN A HALF INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
MUNISING DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER FETCH.
TONIGHT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-12C AND WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LES GOING. HOWEVER...AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINING LES WILL
ALSO DIMINISH WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OVER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
SINCE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS HANDLING EXPECTED LES WED THROUGH
SAT...PUT TIME AND ATTENTION INTO THE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME WHEN A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA...POSSIBLY
WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
FOR THE EARLY-MID WEEK SYSTEM...
OVERALL SETUP...A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
LEEWARD CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO/WRN NE/WRN KS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...WHICH RESULTS IN A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY MON AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING THERMAL GRADIENT N OF THE SFC
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF FGEN /AND PRECIPITATION/
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW MON MORNING. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER JET WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH UNTIL THE FAVORABLE FORCING
REGION FROM THE JET MOVES E BY 12Z TUE. HOWEVER...THE SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY COMPLETE LOSS OF THE UPPER JET FORCING WILL BE
INCREASINGLY OFFSET BY LOWER LEVEL FORCING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
THE SRN PORTION OF THE REGION BY 12Z TUE. THE LOW STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
IS BECOMING BETTER AGREED ON BY MODELS...SHOWING THE A ROUGHLY
1003MB SFC LOW NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER AT 12Z TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO IA. STILL AM STICKING WITH 12Z/08 ECMWF AND 00Z/09 GFS
GUIDANCE WHICH AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND AM TOSSING OUT THE
00Z/09 NAM /WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
HAS QUITE A BIT HIGHER QPF/ AND ALSO USING LESS OF THE 00Z/09 NHEM
GEM AS IS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AND HAS ONLY JUST COME INTO LINE WITH
THE OTHER MODELS. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI ON TUE AT AROUND
1000MB. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP MAINLY MON AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL /WITH PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER AMOUNTS/ UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MODELS HAVE ALSO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON LAGGING THE QPF INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
POLAR LOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE ROTATED AROUND MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE
AREA. INTERESTING AND UNUSUAL SYSTEM IN THAT THE FGEN WILL BE FAIRLY
FAR REMOVED FROM THE SFC LOW...AND ALSO THAT A STRONG HIGH AND THAT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR TO THE N THAT THE FGEN WILL WRAP
IN...THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT IS OFTEN SEEN
WHEN THESE STRONG FGEN CASES OCCUR. WHAT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DOES FOR THE AREA IS IT KEEP THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE PERSISTENT NE/NNE LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND SUPPORTIVE 850MB TEMPS. SHOULD EASILY SEE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN NE FLOW FAVORED AREAS...WITH GREATER
QPF/SNOW THAN IS SHOWN BY THE LARGER SCALE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. WINDS
DO LOOK TO TURN MORE N-NW TUE NIGHT...SO FAVORED AREAS WILL SHIFT AT
THAT POINT. ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP /INSTEAD OF ALL
SNOW/ IS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI WHERE WARMER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOSE IN.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN LINE WITH A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH GIVES WIDESPREAD 1-1.30 INCHES.
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS MAY
BE OBSERVED DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK...ALSO HAVE JUST OVER 1.5
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ARE FAVORED. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY N
WITH THE TRACK...SO KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY STILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE HEADLINES. ALSO...EVEN WITH MANUALLY INCREASING QPF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS AREA WIDE
QPF HIGHER THAN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED
AREAS. IF THE HIGHER AREA WIDE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DID
VERIFY...COULD EASILY SEE 2.00 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 2.50 INCHES OF QPF
IN THE ENHANCED AREAS OF THE NCENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREFERRED...SO A MORE MODERATED/BLENDED
SOLUTION WAS APPLIED. FROM IWD TO MQT TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THE DGZ WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND NOT ALL THAT
THICK...A 200-300MB THICK LAYER BELOW THE DGZ WILL BE NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL AND STILL COLDER THAN -8C. ALSO...VERTICAL MOTION WILL
BE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW-MID LEVELS...SO THAT SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE AROUND 15 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. N OF THE IWD TO ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LINE...THE DGZ WILL BE LOWER AND THICKER...SO HIGHER
SLR VALUES WILL BE OBSERVED. THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FARTHER S. ALL
THIS SAID...HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM MON THROUGH TUE OF
12-17 INCHES...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...HAVE UP TO 22 INCHES OF SNOW. OVER THE NRN
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR ERN UPPER MI HAVE 9-12 INCHES OF SNOW.
NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY HAVE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LOW
NEAR MENOMINEE WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
DECIDED TO PUSH HEADLINES BACK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES GIVEN A
SLOWER TREND TO GUIDANCE. ALSO...ADDED NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY TO THE
WATCH. DID NOT GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS TO ALLOW FOR BETTER
REFINEMENT OF AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS EVNG AS A HI PRES RDG/AXIS
OF DRIER AIR MOVES THRU THE UPR LKS. BUT AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE/LO
PRES TROF IN MN AND AN INFLUX OF MORE LLVL MSTR WL BRING A RETURN OF
MORE CLDS/SHSN ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNGT AT IWD AND SAW.
SINCE THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING/DEEPER MSTR WL PASS THRU WI AND DRIER
LLVL AIR WL LINGER OVER THE KEWEENAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT CMX. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE/LO PRES
TROF ON SUN MRNG...CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON SUN
AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD NE TO N GALES
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI INTO THE
15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ002-003-006-007-013-014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ009>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
524 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEK. A SECOND
WEAKER ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB MAY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR A WEEK OR LONGER IN SOME AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH TODAY INTO
CNTL SOUTH DAKOTA. ALL 12 MODELS SHOW WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT
TO THE NORTH. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS...FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS MIGHT NOT WORK THOUGH GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST.
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD POOL MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE NAM SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE ARRIVAL RUNNING SOME 3 HOURS /OR
MORE/ SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO. THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH...WITH MID TO LATE MORNING HIGHS MONDAY APPROACHING 10C SOUTH
OF I80 /OR WARMER/. FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH AS
THE NAM IS INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S FOR OUR SOUTH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. NORTH HOWEVER...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
NON-DIURNAL HIGHS AS STRONG CAA FILTERS SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 0C ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER ON MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN THREAT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON AN
AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVERLAID BY A LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA OVER THE DAKOTAS....BUT SUGGEST SOME IMPACT TO
OUR NORTHERN CWA. BUT THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LESS THAN IDEAL
MOISTURE PROFILE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE IN THIS AREA...WHERE THE ARE
TIMES THAT SATURATION ONLY EXISTS BELOW THE DGZ. A MIXED BAG OF
P-TYPES WILL BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTH...WITH THE PRIMARY MODE
BEING POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BOTH NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS POINT TO SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
KVTN MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST...MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW RATHER THAN
THE DRIZZLE.
THE 09.00Z GFS/EC IS ENTERTAINING TONIGHT WITH IT/S PROJECTION OF A
SECONDARY FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT SANDHILLS. THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS SHOWN TO
OVERCOME THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE /DISPLAYED BY LOW AND MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DOWNGLIDE IN AGEOSTROPHIC CROSS SECTIONS/ TO
PRODUCE A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT QPF LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IN CONTRAST IS LARGELY IGNORING THIS
SECONDARY BAND. THE IDEA 24 HOURS AGO WAS TO TREND BACK THE POP
FORECAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...BUT TONIGHT THAT
HAS CHANGED. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER END
CHANCE WORDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY FOR THE ABOVE
POTENTIAL. IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON RAPID SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTE THAT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE EVENTUAL QPF WILL FALL IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS THE MESOSCALE FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE THE SNOW PRODUCTION. THESE
TYPE CASES THE MODELS SEEM TO OVER ESTIMATE THE WIDTH OF THE SNOW
BAND/S/...WHICH WILL BE TRUE IN THIS CASE...REVISIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WHAT IS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR
SINCE LATE LAST WINTER WILL ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH. FORECAST HIGHS MID-WEEK MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH INTO THE 20S...AND DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...SUB ZERO LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
OUTBREAK IS HERE TO STAY...WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...IF NOT LONGER.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY WEAK WAVE WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN SUFFICIENT SATURATION. THE
DGZ WILL LOWER WELL BELOW H85 MID WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WAVE IS SHOWN TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR IN THE REGION. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR LIGHT QPF...ONLY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC
WAVE CRUISING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AGAIN
LIGHT QPF IS SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH 09Z.
THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND IFR CIGS COULD ENTER NRN
NEB AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
513 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUITE
PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...WE HAVE A FINE SCENARIO FOR A NICE
WARM-UP...WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST JOB A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THE FIRST PERIOD HIGHS IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
SITUATION...SO I AM GOING WITH THIS FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS AND EVEN LOWER 70S IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA...DESPITE SOME CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS AT TIMES. WIND
SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHT. FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN A CORRIDOR FROM
NEAR LEXINGTON TO ORD...WITH WINDS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING AN ISSUE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE. CONSRAW
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE IN THIS SITUATION. SO I AM
USING THIS TO GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S...WELL ABOVE GENERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WIND COULD
GUST A BIT TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES AS A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE KNOCKING
ON OUR DOOR STEP IN THE THE NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL TOPICS OF INTEREST OVER THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...WILL MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND INSTEAD OF FOCUSING MAINLY ON
CHRONOLOGICAL DAILY DETAILS WILL DISCUSS THE BIG-PICTURE ASPECTS
OF VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS: TEMPS...PRECIPITATION...WIND ETC.
STARING WITH TEMPS: WE ARE ONE DAY CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM FALLING
OUT ON OUR MILD EARLY-NOVEMBER WEATHER...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR
MOST FOLKS IT LOOKS EVERY BIT AS CHILLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS IT DID BEFORE. WILL FOCUS THESE FIRST TWO PARAGRAPHS
SOLELY ON TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS/TRENDS...AND THEN TURN
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH: ALTHOUGH ONLY
MINOR/GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HIGH/LOW TEMPS FOR
TUES-SAT...ACTUAL WIND CHILL READINGS FOR AT LEAST THE MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBABLY DROPPED DOWN MORE NOTICEABLY AS
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED AS MUCH AS 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
DAYTIME. SO AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...WE ARE NOW UP TO 5
CONSECUTIVE DAYS (TUES-SAT) IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING WHICH
HIGHS WILL EITHER STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 DEGREES OR OUTRIGHT FALL TO
REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ON MOST
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE ALSO QUITE
POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST 1 OR 2 NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS PATTERN
OF MUCH-BELOW TEMPS MIGHT EASE UP A BIT...FOR SURE THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT LEAST THERE ARE SIGNS
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD PER THE ECMWF MODEL THAT
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY (REPEAT POTENTIALLY) MAKE A
RUN AT GETTING BACK INTO THE 40S AROUND THE NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY THE
16TH-17TH TIME FRAME. THE BOTTOM LINE: CONFIDENCE JUST KEEPS
INCREASING THAT THE CWA IS STARING AT THE OVERALL COLDEST
MULTIPLE-DAY STRETCH OF MID-NOVEMBER WEATHER SINCE AT LEAST
2000...14 YEARS AGO. ON ONE LAST TEMPERATURE-RELATED
NOTE...ALTHOUGH FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20...THE
PRESENCE OF SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE AND EVEN BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
DURING NEARLY EVERY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AND PRECAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
GIVEN THAT WE HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ANYTHING LIKE THIS YET THIS
SEASON.
ONE MAY HAVE NOTICED THAT THE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH SKIPPED ANY
MENTION OF MONDAY (TOMORROW) TEMPERATURES. WELL...THATS BECAUSE
THEY ARE WORTHY OF THEIR OWN PARAGRAPH AS EVEN AT THIS 24-36 HOUR
RANGE THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ROOM
FOR ERROR HERE. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT JUST LIKE LAST
NIGHT...MONDAY HIGHS WERE AGAIN CRANKED UPWARD ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THE CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE SURGE OF COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO HOW IT LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. SO...WHILE SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE OFFING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS...ACTUAL HIGHS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE REACHED
AROUND MID-DAY ARE ACTUALLY LOOKING REASONABLY MILD. ALTHOUGH
CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR 5+ DEGREE
ERRORS HERE....THIS LATEST FORECAST AIMS FOR A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM
MID 40S FAR NORTH...SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S CENTRAL...AND LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH. IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE
SPEED THAT COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED
RAISING THESE HIGHS EVEN FARTHER AND THIS MAY STILL NEED
CONSIDERED. PLEASE NOTE THOUGH...NO MATTER WHAT THE DAILY HIGH
TECHNICALLY IS...TEMPS BY THE 5PM MONDAY COMMUTE TIME WILL BE DOWN
QUICKLY TUMBLING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH...AND 40S SOUTH.
SWITCHING GEARS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE OFFICIALLY ONLY TWO TIME FRAMES WITH ANY
PRECIP/SNOW MENTION...THE FIRST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND AND MORE UNCERTAIN ONE NOT UNTIL NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FOCUSING FIRST ON THE MOST IMMEDIATE CHANCE
AND STARTING WITH MONDAY DAYTIME...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH NOON. THEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...AND ONLY A SPRINKLE/FLURRY
MENTION FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC
FRONT. TECHNICALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
HERE AND THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW FELT THE
SPRINKLE/FLURRY MENTION SHOULD SUFFICE...AS THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING HARDLY ANY PRECIP. THEN MONDAY
EVENING-NIGHT...THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST A LIGHT DUSTING OF WIND-
BLOWN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SWEEPS OVER THE CWA. MUCH LIKE
THE CASE WITH MONDAY TEMPERATURES...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EVEN 36-48 HOURS OUT WHETHER OR NOT MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...OR WHETHER PARTS OF THE AREA
COULD ACTUALLY REALIZE SOME LIGHT-BUT-NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION UP
TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW EFFICIENTLY THE
LOW-MID LEVEL COLUMN SATURATES...AND AT THIS TIME THE NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE BARELY FLURRIES THEORY...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY GEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AT LEAST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS ALL COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
DOWNPLAYING THINGS WITH ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
UP TO NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. GIVEN
THAT MID-LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE LACKING...ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW AM NOT SEEING THIS
AS A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...AND THUS WILL FOCUS THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.
NO MATTER WHAT DOES OR DOESN/T FALL FROM THE SKY ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF ANY SNOW
CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WOULD
NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AROUND THE TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH BETTER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MID-WEEK
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY COVERING
THE SNOW CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CURRENT
FORECAST ONLY HAS LOW 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...AND THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SHOWING
A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS SKIRTS THE
BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT HERE.
LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...NEED TO DEDICATE A PARAGRAPH HERE
TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SURGING ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND
THE INITIAL ARCTIC BLAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEYOND WHICH SPEEDS AT LEAST DECREASE TO MORE MANAGEABLE
LEVELS. IN SHORT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF QUITE-STRONG
WINDS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AT LEAST
30-35 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 45-50 MPH. IN THE PAST...THIS WOULD
BE A SLAM-DUNK WIND ADVISORY EVENT...BUT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL
NEARBY OFFICES CEASED ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES AS OF NOV. 1ST. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. FORTUNATELY...HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
OF SUSTAINED 40+ MPH/GUSTS 58+ MPH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH THESE VALUES GIVEN THAT THE 06Z NAM IS DEPICTING A VERY
IMPRESSIVE 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY
8-15 MPH PLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH/GUST 30-35 MPH POTENTIAL...MAKING FOR A REAL
SLAP IN THE FACE CONSIDERING THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT
EVEN REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS TONIGHT AS A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTH SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED A
MENTION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO
SOUTH TODAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. ONLY CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED FOR SKY
COVER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUITE
PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...WE HAVE A FINE SCENARIO FOR A NICE
WARM-UP...WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST JOB A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THE FIRST PERIOD HIGHS IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
SITUATION...SO I AM GOING WITH THIS FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS AND EVEN LOWER 70S IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA...DESPITE SOME CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS AT TIMES. WIND
SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHT. FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN A CORRIDOR FROM
NEAR LEXINGTON TO ORD...WITH WINDS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING AN ISSUE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE. CONSRAW
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE IN THIS SITUATION. SO I AM
USING THIS TO GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S...WELL ABOVE GENERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WIND COULD
GUST A BIT TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES AS A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE KNOCKING
ON OUR DOOR STEP IN THE THE NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL TOPICS OF INTEREST OVER THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...WILL MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND INSTEAD OF FOCUSING MAINLY ON
CHRONOLOGICAL DAILY DETAILS WILL DISCUSS THE BIG-PICTURE ASPECTS
OF VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS: TEMPS...PRECIPITATION...WIND ETC.
STARING WITH TEMPS: WE ARE ONE DAY CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM FALLING
OUT ON OUR MILD EARLY-NOVEMBER WEATHER...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR
MOST FOLKS IT LOOKS EVERY BIT AS CHILLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS IT DID BEFORE. WILL FOCUS THESE FIRST TWO PARAGRAPHS
SOLELY ON TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS/TRENDS...AND THEN TURN
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH: ALTHOUGH ONLY
MINOR/GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HIGH/LOW TEMPS FOR
TUES-SAT...ACTUAL WIND CHILL READINGS FOR AT LEAST THE MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBABLY DROPPED DOWN MORE NOTICEABLY AS
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED AS MUCH AS 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
DAYTIME. SO AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...WE ARE NOW UP TO 5
CONSECUTIVE DAYS (TUES-SAT) IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING WHICH
HIGHS WILL EITHER STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 DEGREES OR OUTRIGHT FALL TO
REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ON MOST
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE ALSO QUITE
POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST 1 OR 2 NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS PATTERN
OF MUCH-BELOW TEMPS MIGHT EASE UP A BIT...FOR SURE THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT LEAST THERE ARE SIGNS
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD PER THE ECMWF MODEL THAT
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY (REPEAT POTENTIALLY) MAKE A
RUN AT GETTING BACK INTO THE 40S AROUND THE NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY THE
16TH-17TH TIME FRAME. THE BOTTOM LINE: CONFIDENCE JUST KEEPS
INCREASING THAT THE CWA IS STARING AT THE OVERALL COLDEST
MULTIPLE-DAY STRETCH OF MID-NOVEMBER WEATHER SINCE AT LEAST
2000...14 YEARS AGO. ON ONE LAST TEMPERATURE-RELATED
NOTE...ALTHOUGH FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20...THE
PRESENCE OF SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE AND EVEN BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
DURING NEARLY EVERY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AND PRECAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
GIVEN THAT WE HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ANYTHING LIKE THIS YET THIS
SEASON.
ONE MAY HAVE NOTICED THAT THE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH SKIPPED ANY
MENTION OF MONDAY (TOMORROW) TEMPERATURES. WELL...THATS BECAUSE
THEY ARE WORTHY OF THEIR OWN PARAGRAPH AS EVEN AT THIS 24-36 HOUR
RANGE THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ROOM
FOR ERROR HERE. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT JUST LIKE LAST
NIGHT...MONDAY HIGHS WERE AGAIN CRANKED UPWARD ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THE CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE SURGE OF COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO HOW IT LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. SO...WHILE SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE OFFING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS...ACTUAL HIGHS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE REACHED
AROUND MID-DAY ARE ACTUALLY LOOKING REASONABLY MILD. ALTHOUGH
CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR 5+ DEGREE
ERRORS HERE....THIS LATEST FORECAST AIMS FOR A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM
MID 40S FAR NORTH...SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S CENTRAL...AND LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH. IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE
SPEED THAT COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED
RAISING THESE HIGHS EVEN FARTHER AND THIS MAY STILL NEED
CONSIDERED. PLEASE NOTE THOUGH...NO MATTER WHAT THE DAILY HIGH
TECHNICALLY IS...TEMPS BY THE 5PM MONDAY COMMUTE TIME WILL BE DOWN
QUICKLY TUMBLING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH...AND 40S SOUTH.
SWITCHING GEARS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE OFFICIALLY ONLY TWO TIME FRAMES WITH ANY
PRECIP/SNOW MENTION...THE FIRST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND AND MORE UNCERTAIN ONE NOT UNTIL NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FOCUSING FIRST ON THE MOST IMMEDIATE CHANCE
AND STARTING WITH MONDAY DAYTIME...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH NOON. THEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...AND ONLY A SPRINKLE/FLURRY
MENTION FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC
FRONT. TECHNICALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
HERE AND THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW FELT THE
SPRINKLE/FLURRY MENTION SHOULD SUFFICE...AS THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING HARDLY ANY PRECIP. THEN MONDAY
EVENING-NIGHT...THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST A LIGHT DUSTING OF WIND-
BLOWN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SWEEPS OVER THE CWA. MUCH LIKE
THE CASE WITH MONDAY TEMPERATURES...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EVEN 36-48 HOURS OUT WHETHER OR NOT MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...OR WHETHER PARTS OF THE AREA
COULD ACTUALLY REALIZE SOME LIGHT-BUT-NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION UP
TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW EFFICIENTLY THE
LOW-MID LEVEL COLUMN SATURATES...AND AT THIS TIME THE NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE BARELY FLURRIES THEORY...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY GEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AT LEAST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS ALL COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
DOWNPLAYING THINGS WITH ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
UP TO NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. GIVEN
THAT MID-LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE LACKING...ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW AM NOT SEEING THIS
AS A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...AND THUS WILL FOCUS THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.
NO MATTER WHAT DOES OR DOESN/T FALL FROM THE SKY ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF ANY SNOW
CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WOULD
NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AROUND THE TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH BETTER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MID-WEEK
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY COVERING
THE SNOW CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CURRENT
FORECAST ONLY HAS LOW 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...AND THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SHOWING
A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS SKIRTS THE
BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT HERE.
LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...NEED TO DEDICATE A PARAGRAPH HERE
TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SURGING ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND
THE INITIAL ARCTIC BLAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEYOND WHICH SPEEDS AT LEAST DECREASE TO MORE MANAGEABLE
LEVELS. IN SHORT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF QUITE-STRONG
WINDS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AT LEAST
30-35 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 45-50 MPH. IN THE PAST...THIS WOULD
BE A SLAM-DUNK WIND ADVISORY EVENT...BUT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL
NEARBY OFFICES CEASED ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES AS OF NOV. 1ST. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. FORTUNATELY...HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
OF SUSTAINED 40+ MPH/GUSTS 58+ MPH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH THESE VALUES GIVEN THAT THE 06Z NAM IS DEPICTING A VERY
IMPRESSIVE 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY
8-15 MPH PLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH/GUST 30-35 MPH POTENTIAL...MAKING FOR A REAL
SLAP IN THE FACE CONSIDERING THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT
EVEN REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...AND
MAY BE SLIGHTLY OFF A CATEGORY AT THE VERY BEGINNING...BUT SHOULD
BECOME LIGHTER AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1025 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END ABRUPTLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS INDICATE THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN...CONTINUES TO HUG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF PCPN EXTENDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS...FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM THE
COAST...NEARLY UP TO THE BASE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WAS NOT
ANTICIPATING THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXTENDING THIS FAR
INLAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TODAYS MAXES BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES
LOW ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT WERE THOUGHT TO RECEIVE A DECENT DOSE OF
INSOLATION. AS FOR THE PCPN...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING...IN THAT NO INLAND OR WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED. THE R- WILL HUG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
ILM CWA MAINLAND BY EVENING. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SLIP EAST THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE NO WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND N-NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REAL
ACTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXIST: ONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW AND A
SECOND OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. IT`S THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST...INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.
RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
HUGGING THE COAST. THIS IS BEING GENERATED UP IN THE MID LEVELS BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 310K-315K THETA SURFACES... APPROXIMATELY
14000-18000 FEET UP. PRECIP RATES HAVE BECOME HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
DRY AIR BELOW THE ALTOSTRATUS BASE IS NOT ABLE TO EVAPORATE THE RAIN
BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW RAIN
ESSENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS RADAR RETURNS ARE OCCURRING
NOW...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY 14-15Z. WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE
RAISED POPS TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT OVER BALD HEAD ISLAND AND
COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH HIGHS FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS...AND GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD...63-65
FOR MOST AREAS.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND 850 MB THERE
APPEARS TO BE NO LIFT IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A CLOUD DECK...SO I WILL
FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW HAVE THE SHORTWAVE JUST ABOUT CUTOFF AS IT CROSSES FL
MON WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT STALLED WELL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND
PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER MON NIGHT AND ON TUE AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTH. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT SEEM ALL THAT
HIGH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL SYSTEM AND LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY. INHERITED A DRY
FORECAST AND HAVING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FEEL ONLY SLIGHT
CHC POP ALONG THE COAST IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST
AND CLEAR. IT COULD BE THAT COASTAL NC REMAINS UNDER OVC SKIES FOR
MOST OF TUE WHILE INLAND SC SEES LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS TUE MORNING. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD MON AND TUE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH BEHIND THE 5H LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY WED. PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. COLD ADVECTION POST FRONT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG
AT FIRST...BUT IT IS RELENTLESS. COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO THU. COLD ADVECTION GAINS
STRENGTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES. 850 TEMPS
WILL DROP FROM AROUND 10C THU AFTERNOON TO ZERO OR JUST BELOW FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND ACCOMPANIED BY...AT BEST...MARGINAL LIFT. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP LATER THU AND AGAIN FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND MID LEVELS COOL...INCREASING INSTABILITY. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE AND THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP OFFSHORE...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN SO. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
NEXT SET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU WITH A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...THE FIRST LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OF THE
ILM WATERS BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS
THE ILM WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE EARLY
STAGES OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OVERALL...THE CURRENT AND
PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A NNE-NE WIND DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PG WILL YIELD 10-15 KT WIND
SPEEDS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT.
SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS FOR BUOYS ACROSS THE ILM AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...ALL ILLUSTRATE WIND DRIVEN WAVES
HAVING BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THE
1 TO 2 FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO WIND SHIFT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG TONIGHT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MODELS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WINDS:
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FEET EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR TONIGHT. ONE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY IS TO INCLUDE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN SHOULD LATE THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...5H TROUGH/LOW CROSSING FL MON MORNING WILL
ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE...PASSING WELL OFFSHORE
LATER TUE. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT A BIT. NORTHEAST
FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE STACKED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM
2 TO 4 FT MON MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO
3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST WED WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THU BY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WEAK
GRADIENT WED WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OFFSHORE INTO WED NIGHT.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THU WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. INITIAL COLD SURGE THU AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SECONDARY SURGE THU NIGHT
RESULTING IN A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THU NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT WED INTO THU BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT IN NC ZONES NEAR 20 NM LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM SUNDAY...SHEARED SHORT WAVE TROF AND ACCOMPANYING ILL-DEFINED
COLD FRONT WHERE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z U/A ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING OFFSHORE
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH
WEAK FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR
AND THE HRRR MODEL I WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH 18Z THEN INDICATE DRYING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE ILL
DEFINED COLD FRONT FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING BUT WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
OVER INLAND AREAS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AMID A ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW.
LIGHT N/NE BNDRY LAYER FLOW SHUD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FULL POTENTIAL INLAND DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WINDS. EXPECT LOWS NEAR 40/LOW 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50S AT
THE COAST WITH A LIGHT BREEZE OFF WARMER WATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
OFF THE FL COAST AND LIFTING A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. TWEAKED THE POP
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE SLIGHTLY BASED ON 00Z
GUIDANCE...INCREASING POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRES RIDGES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW
WED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
RIDGING INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED WITH
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES
WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. NO SIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THU...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MON-WED...THEN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM NE ACRS THE AREA
TODAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5K FT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN TAF SITES (OAJ/EWN)
FOR A TIME AS PATCHY LIGHT RAIN GRAZES THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
PASSES THRU THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER EXPECT A LIGHTLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER TO PREVENT FOG
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR
NOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
THE SE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS. SREF
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE WED WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS LOW PRES OFF
THE SE COAST MOVES NE WELL AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL
OFF THE NC COAST TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT AT
THE COAST TO SUPPORT 10-20 KT WINDS THRU EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH MON...HOWEVER MODELS STRONGER WITH LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS MON INTO TUE...BRINGING TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY...TO AROUND 15KT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTION...DEVELOPING THE
STRONGEST WINDS. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF GFS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20-25 KT. LOCAL NWPS SHOWS SEAS
BUILDING TO 6FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...WITH PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS DIMINISH SOME
TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. THE NEXT FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WED AND EXPECT NLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/JME/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END ABRUPTLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SLIP EAST THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE NO WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND N-NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REAL
ACTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXIST: ONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW AND A
SECOND OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. IT`S THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST...INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.
RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
HUGGING THE COAST. THIS IS BEING GENERATED UP IN THE MID LEVELS BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 310K-315K THETA SURFACES... APPROXIMATELY
14000-18000 FEET UP. PRECIP RATES HAVE BECOME HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
DRY AIR BELOW THE ALTOSTRATUS BASE IS NOT ABLE TO EVAPORATE THE RAIN
BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW RAIN
ESSENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS RADAR RETURNS ARE OCCURRING
NOW...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY 14-15Z. WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE
RAISED POPS TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT OVER BALD HEAD ISLAND AND
COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH HIGHS FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS...AND GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD...63-65
FOR MOST AREAS.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND 850 MB THERE
APPEARS TO BE NO LIFT IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A CLOUD DECK...SO I WILL
FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW HAVE THE SHORTWAVE JUST ABOUT CUTOFF AS IT CROSSES FL
MON WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT STALLED WELL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND
PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER MON NIGHT AND ON TUE AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTH. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT SEEM ALL THAT
HIGH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL SYSTEM AND LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY. INHERITED A DRY
FORECAST AND HAVING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FEEL ONLY SLIGHT
CHC POP ALONG THE COAST IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST
AND CLEAR. IT COULD BE THAT COASTAL NC REMAINS UNDER OVC SKIES FOR
MOST OF TUE WHILE INLAND SC SEES LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS TUE MORNING. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD MON AND TUE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH BEHIND THE 5H LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY WED. PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. COLD ADVECTION POST FRONT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG
AT FIRST...BUT IT IS RELENTLESS. COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO THU. COLD ADVECTION GAINS
STRENGTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES. 850 TEMPS
WILL DROP FROM AROUND 10C THU AFTERNOON TO ZERO OR JUST BELOW FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND ACCOMPANIED BY...AT BEST...MARGINAL LIFT. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP LATER THU AND AGAIN FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND MID LEVELS COOL...INCREASING INSTABILITY. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE AND THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP OFFSHORE...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN SO. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
NEXT SET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU WITH A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO WIND SHIFT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG TONIGHT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODELS
ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS AVERAGING
2-3 FEET EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS DEVELOPING AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR
CAPE FEAR TONIGHT. ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY IS TO
INCLUDE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN SHOULD LATE THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...5H TROUGH/LOW CROSSING FL MON MORNING WILL
ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE...PASSING WELL OFFSHORE
LATER TUE. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT A BIT. NORTHEAST
FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE STACKED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM
2 TO 4 FT MON MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO
3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST WED WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THU BY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WEAK
GRADIENT WED WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OFFSHORE INTO WED NIGHT.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THU WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. INITIAL COLD SURGE THU AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SECONDARY SURGE THU NIGHT
RESULTING IN A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THU NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT WED INTO THU BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT IN NC ZONES NEAR 20 NM LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
STRONG POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC
FRONT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SERN MONTANA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. LACK OF
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND A JET NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK OF FORWARD PROGRESS IN THIS FRONT.
ABOUT A 40DEG F TEMP GRADIENT THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
CROSS MTN PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED SOME...BUT WITH THE MTN
WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE HAVE NOTICED A STEADY
INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY
PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE CROSS MTN WINDS STRENGTHENING AS THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE POLAR JET PASSES OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
THE MTN WAVE REFORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
X-SECTION WIND COMPONENT NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL MAXING OUT AROUND 65
KTS AROUND 12Z/MONDAY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED AT MTN TOP LEVEL AND UPPER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT
RANGE. HOWEVER WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT NEARING...MODELS SHOW WIND
SPEEDS ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
MILD...ESPLY IN THE WINDIER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
BY MORNING MORNING...NAM...WRF...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOW THE ARCTIC
FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE CWA AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS SPREADING OVER
THE PLAINS. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SHOULD SEE PRECIP STEADILY
INCREASING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE WITH THE POLAR JET PASSING OVERHEAD. COULD SEE HIGH
WINDWARD SLOPES RECEIVING 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES BY
AFTERNOON. BACK TO THE PLAINS...MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE BY AROUND
18Z...THEN RACING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30-40KT NLY WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW TO START OUT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL THE COLD AIR RUNS UP
AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE PASSING JET COULD PRODUCE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW UP AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS...ACRS PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY 6 PM MST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY DARK.
AGAIN THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WAS NEVER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
SNOW...JUST VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK LEADING TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEK. FOR
MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH JUST LINGERING FLURRIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMP READINGS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 20 DEGREES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
WITH BEST SHOT OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OF THE WEEK FOR ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL
WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE WITH JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WY AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE BARELY MAKE 10 DEGREES.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO
THE COLD AIRMASS WHILE THE MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL WILL THEN SHIFT
MORE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. PACIFIC
ORIGIN MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
EXPECT SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND A BIT MORE IFFY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE WITH EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPER TROF DEVELOPING
OVER GREAT BASIN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWING A WEAK AND
MORE OPEN TROF IN NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PERIOD FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
SFC WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER DENVER METRO AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
GO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MTN WAVE RELUCTANT TO MOVE
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. NOW THAT IT HAS...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. KBJC MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS...STRONGEST AROUND SUNRISE. NO PRECIP
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS 12-30KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN AN ABRUPT
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-40KTS AROUND 19Z WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CEILING WILL LOWER
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST. IT LIKES BY AROUND 22Z...CIGS
COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET ALG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW DEVELOPING SOON AFTER. TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE
DENVER AREA BY EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...SWE
AVIATION FORECASTER...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...
SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WITH RECENT ISOBAR ANALYSIS SHOWING A 1009
MB LOW WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER INLAND SE GA...COASTAL CLOUDS...AND SOME PATCHES OF SPRINKLES
STREAMING ACROSS FL FROM THE GULF SOUTH OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. TEMPS
WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S COAST WHERE
CLOUDS AND COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPERED HIGHS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MON...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH 06Z WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST RELATIVELY DRY LESS A
FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL TIER
FROM SGJ-OCF SOUTHWARD. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE
BEYOND 06Z GIVEN MODEL PERSISTENCE IN SLOWLY DEEPENING THE LOW
OFFSHORE AND WRAP-AROUND TROUGH COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
BRINGING WAVES OF SHOWERS TO OUR FL COASTAL COUNTIES...SPECIFICALLY
ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS OF ST
JOHNS/FLAGLER COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" AND USED WPC QPF TO
REFLECT THIS HIGHER RAINFALL SWATH POTENTIAL FROM 06Z MON-00Z TUE.
ALSO OF INTEREST IS A HIGHER CORE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
18-00Z MON PER THE ECMWF/GFS40 AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES
ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST...AND HAVE INDICATED AROUND 60% CHANCE
OF RAINFALL TOMORROW FOR THESE ZONES WITH A DRASTIC DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES TO 10% OR LESS BEYOND THIS HIGHER POP CORE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE N-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
TONIGHT...ELEVATED WINDS WILL FAVOR MORE LOW STRATUS TO FORM
VERSES FOG...WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE OVER SE GA
FROM THE NW AS DRIER AIR TRAILS THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S OVER OUR INLAND ZONES...TO NEAR 60
ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. MONDAY TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ATLANTIC COAST
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER OUR SE FL ZONES...CLEARING SKIES FROM
THE NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BRINGS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE LAND AREAS MONDAY EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
EVEN SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW TEMPS
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND COULD SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...STILL WORTHY OF
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL SUCCEED THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 60S...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL COME ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST...BUT NO FROST OR
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AIR MASS.
THE HIGH WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY AND WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST. IN THIS SCENARIO...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OFFSHORE MAY
BRUSH THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND...RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH WAVES OF MVFR CIGS AT SSI THIS
AFTN. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT JAX...CRG...VQQ
AND GNV...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT GNV AND VQQ WHERE MVFR WAS
ADVERTISED BETWEEN 07Z-09Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT GNV...BUT JUST MENTIONED SCT008 FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT MON WITH INCREASING NNE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KTS
AS COMBINED SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT MON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE
TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK LIKELY ON MONDAY DUE
TO BUILDING SEAS AND ELEVATED NNE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 44 75 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 56 70 52 74 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 54 73 51 77 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 59 72 58 76 / 30 40 40 0
GNV 52 74 50 78 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 53 75 52 79 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/SHULER/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1241 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. A MINOR WAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COULD
AFFORD A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACRS REGION TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO
BACKED/ZONAL LATER THIS AM IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS NRN
ONTARIO CENTERED LOW BECOMES ELONGATED E-W FASHION...UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CHANNEL VORT ACRS ECTL MN/CNTL WI TO STEER LEFT
AND EXPECT SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS /LIGHT RASN/ TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CWA TODAY...PRIMARILY THROUGH CNTL LWR MI/PERHAPS APPROACHING I94
CORRIDOR. RUC13 LOW LEVEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING
GNRLY 75MB PLUS...ALSO SUPPORT A DRY HOLD ACRS CWA. WHILE FAIRLY
THICK/OMNIPRESENT CLOUD COVER TO STIFLE DIURNAL RISES...MODEST
WAA INADVOF FRONTAL ZONE LAYING OUT ACRS SRN GRTLKS REGION
TONIGHT...GIVES NOD TOWARD SLIGHT INCRS IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...ESPCLY WRN CWA. MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION TO EJECT
FROM GLACIER NP AMID RAPID 150 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS SRN BC. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER LATITUDE TRACK THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INCRSD MID
LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SHRA AND/OR SPRINKLES
ACRS FAR NRN TIER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND STALL OUT OF
FRONTAL ZONE LEAVING CWA IN WARM SECTOR HAVE CONFIDENTLY RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MAJOR SYSTEM FOR DYS3/4 BREWING AS EPAC
RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD SUNDAY WITH AN INTENSE COHESIVE DIG ENSUING
ACRS CANADIAN/NRN ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A MASSIVE CYCLONE IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL.
HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER
BRINGING COLD AIR TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A MAJOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING REGIME BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS...ECMWF...12KM NAM AND GEM FAVORING A MORE NORTHWEST SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SOME CHANCES FOR
NON SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THUNDER OUT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND STABILITY IS MARGINAL. GIVEN THE MORE
NORTHWEST LOW TRACK...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN SOME POST
FRONTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY
COLD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 33F TO 37F WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...THESE HIGHS ARE
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. ALSO...THE
GFS/MEX/MOS HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THESE COLDER HIGHS AT
SOUTH BEND. IT IS PLAUSIBLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ADVERTISED BY
THE ECMWF ARE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER BOTH SITES IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST HI RES MODELS. HOWEVER AS LOW LEVEL
LOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH PERSISTENT AREA
OF MID CLOUD WILL MOVE BACK IN AS FRONT SAGS CLOSER. MARGINAL
CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 35 KTS TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN FOR THE TIME BEING BUT NOT A
SLAM DUNK FOR OCCURRENCE.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER ON MONDAY WITH EXTENSIVE DRYING
IN LOW LEVELS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG 490DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM EASTERN WYOMING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE LINE...WITH THE ARCTIC ARI MASS ALREADY
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHER NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURE AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE SEE WINDS GUST AROUND 20
MPH...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THIS IS PROBABLY THE
EXTENT OF THE WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
MPH. DESPITE RH VALUES ALREADY 15 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA...IT JUST DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS REACH THE
25 MPH/3HR CRITERIA BEFORE SUNSET AND EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE WIDESPREAD. NO RFW IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW WITH ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE PLAINS AND HELP KICK THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND TRACKED THIS FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND DELAYS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH...HOWEVER MAIN COLD SURGE WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS DECEPTIVE...BECAUSE HIGH TEMPS (WILE
UNSEASONABLY MILD) WILL BE BEFORE MIDDAY WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT IN AREA OF BETTER PRESSURE
RISES COULD SUPPORT WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT MIXING (WHICH ALSO COMPLICATED DIURNAL WARMING)...SO WHILE
WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(58MPH)...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
UPDATE.
REGARDING PRECIP...GOOD FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNALS...SO I
KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 21Z TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH ADJUSTED
TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF PRECIP FAVORING SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT THE MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THE FLOW. WITH THE COLD AIR PUSHED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES
AND THE SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...WHICH
MAY EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN-
MOST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
INITIALLY LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND DOES NOT CARVE OUT THE NEXT
TROUGH AS DEEPLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM A
DEEPER SINGLE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ANY ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AM
CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH ONLY
VERY SLIGHT WARMING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TENDED TO STICK WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINING TWO HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11KTS (HIGHEST AT KGLD) EXPECTED AT TAF
ISSUANCE WITH A VEER TO THE WEST 5-10KTS IN THE 11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
16Z OR SO BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH 20Z. FROM 21Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR
30KTS AND GUSTS 40-45KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z BUT SHORTLY AFTER THAT CIGS WILL LOWER AND
POSSIBLY BECOME MVFR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AFTER 23Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LOW CHANCES RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST WILL AWAIT
00Z DATA AND SEE HOW IT COMPARES TO CURRENT FORECAST BEFORE
DECIDING WHETHER TO INCLUDE IT OR NOT IN THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
320 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG 490DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM EASTERN WYOMING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE LINE...WITH THE ARCTIC ARI MASS ALREADY
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHER NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURE AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE SEE WINDS GUST AROUND 20
MPH...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THIS IS PROBABLY THE
EXTENT OF THE WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
MPH. DESPITE RH VALUES ALREADY 15 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA...IT JUST DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS REACH THE
25 MPH/3HR CRITERIA BEFORE SUNSET AND EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE WIDESPREAD. NO RFW IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW WITH ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE PLAINS AND HELP KICK THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND TRACKED THIS FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND DELAYS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH...HOWEVER MAIN COLD SURGE WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS DECEPTIVE...BECAUSE HIGH TEMPS (WILE
UNSEASONABLY MILD) WILL BE BEFORE MIDDAY WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT IN AREA OF BETTER PRESSURE
RISES COULD SUPPORT WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT MIXING (WHICH ALSO COMPLICATED DIURNAL WARMING)...SO WHILE
WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(58MPH)...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
UPDATE.
REGARDING PRECIP...GOOD FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNALS...SO I
KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 21Z TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH ADJUSTED
TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF PRECIP FAVORING SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT THE MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THE FLOW. WITH THE COLD AIR PUSHED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES
AND THE SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...WHICH
MAY EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN-
MOST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
INITIALLY LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND DOES NOT CARVE OUT THE NEXT
TROUGH AS DEEPLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM A
DEEPER SINGLE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ANY ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AM
CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH ONLY
VERY SLIGHT WARMING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TENDED TO STICK WITH
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE THROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BETTER MIXING ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND
18-22KT...DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK SHOULD SEE WINDS 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST. BIGGER CHANGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 18Z AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SW
NEBRASKA WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH. LEFT THIS OUT FOR
NOW AT KMCK...DUE TO TIMING ISSUES AROUND END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG 490DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM EASTERN WYOMING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE LINE...WITH THE ARCTIC ARI MASS ALREADY
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHER NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURE AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE SEE WINDS GUST AROUND 20
MPH...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THIS IS PROBABLY THE
EXTENT OF THE WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
MPH. DESPITE RH VALUES ALREADY 15 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA...IT JUST DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS REACH THE
25 MPH/3HR CRITERIA BEFORE SUNSET AND EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE WIDESPREAD. NO RFW IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS/CONDITIONS AS THE DAY STARTS OF
MILD...AND TRANSITIONS TO BLUSTERY AND COLD BY THE EVENING AS ARCTIC
FRONT RUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW WITH ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE PLAINS AND HELP KICK THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND TRACKED THIS FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND DELAYS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH...HOWEVER MAIN COLD SURGE WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS DECEPTIVE...BECAUSE HIGH TEMPS (WILE
UNSEASONABLY MILD) WILL BE BEFORE MIDDAY WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT IN AREA OF BETTER PRESSURE
RISES COULD SUPPORT WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT MIXING (WHICH ALSO COMPLICATED DIURNAL WARMING)...SO WHILE
WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(58MPH)...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
UPDATE.
REGARDING PRECIP...GOOD FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING OVERLAPPING PRECIP SIGNALS...SO I
KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 21Z TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH...WITH ADJUSTED
TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF PRECIP FAVORING SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT THE MOST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A DEEP AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING COLD AIR TO SPILL
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY...BUT QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BETTER MIXING ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND
18-22KT...DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK SHOULD SEE WINDS 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST. BIGGER CHANGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 18Z AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SW
NEBRASKA WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH. LEFT THIS OUT FOR
NOW AT KMCK...DUE TO TIMING ISSUES AROUND END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
147 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE POLAR COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE MONDAY. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO MID-EVENING. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST IS NEEDED WITH MAXS NEAR 70F MOST LOCALES BEFORE
FALLING SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS
MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP...RAIN TO
SNOW IS ALSO A REMOTE POSSIBILITY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE OF
QPF IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WIND CHILLS MONDAY
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THIS MAY CHALLENGE A RECORD COOL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT RUSSELL. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER WILL EMBRACE THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A MINOR
SHORTWAVE ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS THAT SHOULD KEEP PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. IF SO...THIS MAY CHALLENGE THE
DAILY RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AGAIN FOR RUSSELL
AND EVEN SALINA ON WEDNESDAY.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES STAYING MUCH BELOW
CLIMO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS MODEST CONFIDENCE ON
CHANCES FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF OFF THE
PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK MAY PHASE WITH A VORT LOBE
DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE MAIN VORTEX ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
FOR THE AIRPORTS ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHEN NAM BRINGS IN LIFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES
EXCEPT RSL...AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THINKING NAM IS WAY
TOO BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND SIDED MORE WITH THE RUC AND
GFS...SO FOR NOW LEFT ALL MENTION OF LOW CIGS OUT OF TAFS.
HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS IN THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NAM VERIFIES.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 43 70 27 38 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 42 69 25 36 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 43 68 25 36 / 0 0 10 10
ELDORADO 45 70 27 37 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 45 72 28 39 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 42 65 21 33 / 0 0 20 10
GREAT BEND 41 67 21 34 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 43 67 24 35 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 42 68 24 35 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 46 73 33 41 / 0 0 20 10
CHANUTE 45 71 31 39 / 0 0 20 10
IOLA 44 70 30 38 / 0 0 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 45 72 32 40 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1137 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY
AND EVEN WARMER ON MON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL FAVORING THE
ECMWF FOR TIMING OF FRONT WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS WITH WIND
SHIFT...BUT FASTER WITH THE COLD AIR. NET RESULT IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IN CENTRAL KS ON MONDAY...BUT ATTEMPTED TO SHOW QUICKER
FALL OFF IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF FRONT AS WARM
TEMPERATURES/WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. STILL LOOKS LIKE
DECENT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES BUT ODDS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION LOOK SLIM IN CENTRAL KS. OPTED TO KEEP SOME SMALL
CHANCES POST FRONTAL IN SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON NIGHT. UPPED WINDS A
BIT GIVEN GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE DANGER AS WELL. HOWEVER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO BE SHY OF
RED FLAG CRITERIA. ON TUE...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BUT
WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL STILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY.
-HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TRENDS...BUT FORECAST HAS BECOME
MORE COMPLICATED WITH LARGE POTENTIAL FOR ERROR. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS INDICATING MORE CLOUDS ENHANCED BY PERIODIC RIPPLES IN UPPER
FLOW...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEAK OVERRUNNING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATING VERY COLD LOWS GIVEN COLD AIRMASS AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. AT THIS
POINT ONLY TRENDED SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT WARMER
MINIMUMS/COOLER MAXES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. KEEP SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN FORECAST FOR SAT...BUT GIVEN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON SURFACE FEATURES...IT MAY OR MAY NOT COME TO
FRUITION. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
FOR THE AIRPORTS ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHEN NAM BRINGS IN LIFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES
EXCEPT RSL...AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THINKING NAM IS WAY
TOO BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND SIDED MORE WITH THE RUC AND
GFS...SO FOR NOW LEFT ALL MENTION OF LOW CIGS OUT OF TAFS.
HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS IN THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NAM VERIFIES.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 44 70 25 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 69 44 69 22 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 67 44 69 24 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 66 46 69 27 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 46 71 28 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 71 44 65 20 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 71 43 67 21 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 69 44 68 24 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 69 43 68 22 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 66 46 70 36 / 0 0 0 20
CHANUTE 65 45 69 32 / 0 0 0 20
IOLA 64 44 68 32 / 0 0 0 20
PARSONS-KPPF 65 45 70 35 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1205 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ISOLATED RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATTM, AND THE HRRR INDICATES THERE WILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIGHT, PERHAPS EVEN JUST FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. DID KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AS PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, THINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA HAS BROUGHT CLOUD COVER WITH SOME RETURNS THAT WERE
SHOWING EARLIER ON RADAR THAT HAVE NOW MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE, EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST
FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH, AS A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY BUT THIS SHOULDN`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH. WHILE THIS MAY FALL AS SOME FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, ANY PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON WOULD FALL AS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 40 TODAY IN THE
NORTH. DOWNEAST, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 50.
SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR FOR A TIME SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
CLOUDING OVER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL MAKE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
TRICKY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK IN.
STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH LEANED
HEAVILY TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS (SUPERBLEND). EXPECT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
RAIN...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. COULD
HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OR DISTURBANCE CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE TIMING OR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY...THEN AT BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KFVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
CUTS THROUGH THE AREA.
LONG TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A SW
FETCH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE SCA FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/NORCROSS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1245 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
WE HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FCST THIS MORNING TO TIGHTEN UP PCPN CHCS
A LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS WAS MAINLY TO
INCREASE THE CHCS A BIT TO THE NORTH WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING...AND LOWER
THE CHCS ON THE SRN EDGE WHERE PCPN TAPERS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT OUR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WARMER LAKE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VSBYS
HAVE NOT DROPPED DOWN TOO LOW AT ANY LOCATION...SO IT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER LIGHT IN NATURE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT ANY SNOW WITH
THE LFQ OF THIS JET STREAK WILL SWITCH TO RAIN AS WE HAVE SOME
DIURNAL HEATING TAKE PLACE AND AS WE SEE SOME SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR
ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON THE SW FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE HRRR RUC MODEL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SNOW THIS
MORNING COULD ACCUMULATE MORE THAN FORECASTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP 12Z TO 13Z AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS
SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE REED CITY TO CADILLAC
CORRIDOR. ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE PAST
HOUR AND ARE NOW AROUND FREEZING IN THAT REGION. THEY COULD GO UP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NEXT HOUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RISES COULD BE OFFSET AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WILL
BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS. OUR PLAN IS TO SEND OUT A MESSAGE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA ALONG WITH AN SPS BY 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. OVERALL...TRENDS SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING
LINE.
WE MAY SEE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING IN
THE LUDINGTON TO HARRISON REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT IN THE
MOIST DGZ SUPPORTS THIS RISK. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THEN LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM...ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST NORTHERN LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS HERE AS GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE
MAIN AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS LUDINGTON TO HARRISON.
THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH OF HARRISON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WE COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX BY 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
FULL AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEPARTS...H8 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM AROUND +3C AT 00Z
WED TO AROUND -11C BY 12Z WED. ANY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
WILL QUICK SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. BUT THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXITING...SO IT APPEARS ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT AROUND AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO SWING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPAWN HEALTHIER LAKE BANDS. THIS
AGAIN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD BRING AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL MOSTLY AFFECT
MKG AND GRR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. MAY NEED GALES FOR THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
QPF VALUES ARE TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THEN FURTHER
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ANY RISES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1234 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO RESULTING IN CYCLONIC WNW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF 280K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CENTRAL MN
THROUGH WRN UPPER MI AND NRN WI. OTHERWISE...ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MI...PER SFC
OBS. KMQT RADAR IS NOT AVBL DUE TO A MECHANICAL FAILURE.
TODAY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR DIV IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -11C (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR
6C)...LES WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW SUCH AS
THE KEWEENAW AND NE UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN A HALF INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
MUNISING DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER FETCH.
TONIGHT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-12C AND WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LES GOING. HOWEVER...AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINING LES WILL
ALSO DIMINISH WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OVER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
SINCE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS HANDLING EXPECTED LES WED THROUGH
SAT...PUT TIME AND ATTENTION INTO THE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME WHEN A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA...POSSIBLY
WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
FOR THE EARLY-MID WEEK SYSTEM...
OVERALL SETUP...A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
LEEWARD CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO/WRN NE/WRN KS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...WHICH RESULTS IN A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY MON AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING THERMAL GRADIENT N OF THE SFC
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF FGEN /AND PRECIPITATION/
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW MON MORNING. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER JET WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH UNTIL THE FAVORABLE FORCING
REGION FROM THE JET MOVES E BY 12Z TUE. HOWEVER...THE SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY COMPLETE LOSS OF THE UPPER JET FORCING WILL BE
INCREASINGLY OFFSET BY LOWER LEVEL FORCING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
THE SRN PORTION OF THE REGION BY 12Z TUE. THE LOW STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
IS BECOMING BETTER AGREED ON BY MODELS...SHOWING THE A ROUGHLY
1003MB SFC LOW NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER AT 12Z TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO IA. STILL AM STICKING WITH 12Z/08 ECMWF AND 00Z/09 GFS
GUIDANCE WHICH AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND AM TOSSING OUT THE
00Z/09 NAM /WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
HAS QUITE A BIT HIGHER QPF/ AND ALSO USING LESS OF THE 00Z/09 NHEM
GEM AS IS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AND HAS ONLY JUST COME INTO LINE WITH
THE OTHER MODELS. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI ON TUE AT AROUND
1000MB. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP MAINLY MON AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL /WITH PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER AMOUNTS/ UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MODELS HAVE ALSO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON LAGGING THE QPF INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
POLAR LOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE ROTATED AROUND MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE
AREA. INTERESTING AND UNUSUAL SYSTEM IN THAT THE FGEN WILL BE FAIRLY
FAR REMOVED FROM THE SFC LOW...AND ALSO THAT A STRONG HIGH AND THAT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR TO THE N THAT THE FGEN WILL WRAP
IN...THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT IS OFTEN SEEN
WHEN THESE STRONG FGEN CASES OCCUR. WHAT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DOES FOR THE AREA IS IT KEEP THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE PERSISTENT NE/NNE LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND SUPPORTIVE 850MB TEMPS. SHOULD EASILY SEE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN NE FLOW FAVORED AREAS...WITH GREATER
QPF/SNOW THAN IS SHOWN BY THE LARGER SCALE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. WINDS
DO LOOK TO TURN MORE N-NW TUE NIGHT...SO FAVORED AREAS WILL SHIFT AT
THAT POINT. ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP /INSTEAD OF ALL
SNOW/ IS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI WHERE WARMER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOSE IN.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN LINE WITH A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH GIVES WIDESPREAD 1-1.30 INCHES.
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS MAY
BE OBSERVED DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK...ALSO HAVE JUST OVER 1.5
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ARE FAVORED. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY N
WITH THE TRACK...SO KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY STILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE HEADLINES. ALSO...EVEN WITH MANUALLY INCREASING QPF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS AREA WIDE
QPF HIGHER THAN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED
AREAS. IF THE HIGHER AREA WIDE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DID
VERIFY...COULD EASILY SEE 2.00 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 2.50 INCHES OF QPF
IN THE ENHANCED AREAS OF THE NCENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREFERRED...SO A MORE MODERATED/BLENDED
SOLUTION WAS APPLIED. FROM IWD TO MQT TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THE DGZ WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND NOT ALL THAT
THICK...A 200-300MB THICK LAYER BELOW THE DGZ WILL BE NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL AND STILL COLDER THAN -8C. ALSO...VERTICAL MOTION WILL
BE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW-MID LEVELS...SO THAT SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE AROUND 15 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. N OF THE IWD TO ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LINE...THE DGZ WILL BE LOWER AND THICKER...SO HIGHER
SLR VALUES WILL BE OBSERVED. THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FARTHER S. ALL
THIS SAID...HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM MON THROUGH TUE OF
12-17 INCHES...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...HAVE UP TO 22 INCHES OF SNOW. OVER THE NRN
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR ERN UPPER MI HAVE 9-12 INCHES OF SNOW.
NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY HAVE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LOW
NEAR MENOMINEE WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
DECIDED TO PUSH HEADLINES BACK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES GIVEN A
SLOWER TREND TO GUIDANCE. ALSO...ADDED NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY TO THE
WATCH. DID NOT GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS TO ALLOW FOR BETTER
REFINEMENT OF AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF IWD WHICH WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW AND CONDITIONS FALLING TO MVFR BY
EARLY MON AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD NE TO N GALES
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU AND FRI INTO THE
15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ002-003-006-007-013-014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ009>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1202 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEK. A SECOND
WEAKER ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB MAY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR A WEEK OR LONGER IN SOME AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH TODAY INTO
CNTL SOUTH DAKOTA. ALL 12 MODELS SHOW WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT
TO THE NORTH. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS...FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS MIGHT NOT WORK THOUGH GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST.
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD POOL MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE NAM SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE ARRIVAL RUNNING SOME 3 HOURS /OR
MORE/ SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO. THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH...WITH MID TO LATE MORNING HIGHS MONDAY APPROACHING 10C SOUTH
OF I80 /OR WARMER/. FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH AS
THE NAM IS INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S FOR OUR SOUTH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. NORTH HOWEVER...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
NON-DIURNAL HIGHS AS STRONG CAA FILTERS SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 0C ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER ON MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN THREAT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON AN
AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVERLAID BY A LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA OVER THE DAKOTAS....BUT SUGGEST SOME IMPACT TO
OUR NORTHERN CWA. BUT THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LESS THAN IDEAL
MOISTURE PROFILE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE IN THIS AREA...WHERE THE ARE
TIMES THAT SATURATION ONLY EXISTS BELOW THE DGZ. A MIXED BAG OF
P-TYPES WILL BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTH...WITH THE PRIMARY MODE
BEING POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BOTH NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS POINT TO SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
KVTN MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST...MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW RATHER THAN
THE DRIZZLE.
THE 09.00Z GFS/EC IS ENTERTAINING TONIGHT WITH IT/S PROJECTION OF A
SECONDARY FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT SANDHILLS. THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS SHOWN TO
OVERCOME THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE /DISPLAYED BY LOW AND MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DOWNGLIDE IN AGEOSTROPHIC CROSS SECTIONS/ TO
PRODUCE A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT QPF LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IN CONTRAST IS LARGELY IGNORING THIS
SECONDARY BAND. THE IDEA 24 HOURS AGO WAS TO TREND BACK THE POP
FORECAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...BUT TONIGHT THAT
HAS CHANGED. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER END
CHANCE WORDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY FOR THE ABOVE
POTENTIAL. IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON RAPID SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTE THAT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE EVENTUAL QPF WILL FALL IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS THE MESOSCALE FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE THE SNOW PRODUCTION. THESE
TYPE CASES THE MODELS SEEM TO OVER ESTIMATE THE WIDTH OF THE SNOW
BAND/S/...WHICH WILL BE TRUE IN THIS CASE...REVISIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WHAT IS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR
SINCE LATE LAST WINTER WILL ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH. FORECAST HIGHS MID-WEEK MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH INTO THE 20S...AND DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...SUB ZERO LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
OUTBREAK IS HERE TO STAY...WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...IF NOT LONGER.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY WEAK WAVE WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN SUFFICIENT SATURATION. THE
DGZ WILL LOWER WELL BELOW H85 MID WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WAVE IS SHOWN TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR IN THE REGION. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR LIGHT QPF...ONLY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC
WAVE CRUISING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AGAIN
LIGHT QPF IS SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
REST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OVER 10KTS. ALL THINGS CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY...20 TO 30
KTS...BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IMPACTS KVTN FIRST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING COLD AIR WITH RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW EARLY ONLY...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. PRECIP WILL IMPACT KVTN BEFORE
18Z...HOWEVER EXPECT KLBF TO BE DRY THROUGH 18Z. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS ON TIMING THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...THUS THE WIND SHIFT...AND LOWERING
CIGS/PRECIP...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUITE
PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...WE HAVE A FINE SCENARIO FOR A NICE
WARM-UP...WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST JOB A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THE FIRST PERIOD HIGHS IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
SITUATION...SO I AM GOING WITH THIS FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS AND EVEN LOWER 70S IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA...DESPITE SOME CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS AT TIMES. WIND
SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHT. FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN A CORRIDOR FROM
NEAR LEXINGTON TO ORD...WITH WINDS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING AN ISSUE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE. CONSRAW
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE IN THIS SITUATION. SO I AM
USING THIS TO GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S...WELL ABOVE GENERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WIND COULD
GUST A BIT TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES AS A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE KNOCKING
ON OUR DOOR STEP IN THE THE NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL TOPICS OF INTEREST OVER THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...WILL MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND INSTEAD OF FOCUSING MAINLY ON
CHRONOLOGICAL DAILY DETAILS WILL DISCUSS THE BIG-PICTURE ASPECTS
OF VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS: TEMPS...PRECIPITATION...WIND ETC.
STARING WITH TEMPS: WE ARE ONE DAY CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM FALLING
OUT ON OUR MILD EARLY-NOVEMBER WEATHER...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR
MOST FOLKS IT LOOKS EVERY BIT AS CHILLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS IT DID BEFORE. WILL FOCUS THESE FIRST TWO PARAGRAPHS
SOLELY ON TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS/TRENDS...AND THEN TURN
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH: ALTHOUGH ONLY
MINOR/GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HIGH/LOW TEMPS FOR
TUES-SAT...ACTUAL WIND CHILL READINGS FOR AT LEAST THE MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBABLY DROPPED DOWN MORE NOTICEABLY AS
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED AS MUCH AS 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
DAYTIME. SO AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...WE ARE NOW UP TO 5
CONSECUTIVE DAYS (TUES-SAT) IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING WHICH
HIGHS WILL EITHER STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 DEGREES OR OUTRIGHT FALL TO
REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ON MOST
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE ALSO QUITE
POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST 1 OR 2 NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS PATTERN
OF MUCH-BELOW TEMPS MIGHT EASE UP A BIT...FOR SURE THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT LEAST THERE ARE SIGNS
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD PER THE ECMWF MODEL THAT
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY (REPEAT POTENTIALLY) MAKE A
RUN AT GETTING BACK INTO THE 40S AROUND THE NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY THE
16TH-17TH TIME FRAME. THE BOTTOM LINE: CONFIDENCE JUST KEEPS
INCREASING THAT THE CWA IS STARING AT THE OVERALL COLDEST
MULTIPLE-DAY STRETCH OF MID-NOVEMBER WEATHER SINCE AT LEAST
2000...14 YEARS AGO. ON ONE LAST TEMPERATURE-RELATED
NOTE...ALTHOUGH FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20...THE
PRESENCE OF SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE AND EVEN BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
DURING NEARLY EVERY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AND PRECAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
GIVEN THAT WE HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ANYTHING LIKE THIS YET THIS
SEASON.
ONE MAY HAVE NOTICED THAT THE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH SKIPPED ANY
MENTION OF MONDAY (TOMORROW) TEMPERATURES. WELL...THATS BECAUSE
THEY ARE WORTHY OF THEIR OWN PARAGRAPH AS EVEN AT THIS 24-36 HOUR
RANGE THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ROOM
FOR ERROR HERE. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT JUST LIKE LAST
NIGHT...MONDAY HIGHS WERE AGAIN CRANKED UPWARD ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THE CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE SURGE OF COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO HOW IT LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. SO...WHILE SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE OFFING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS...ACTUAL HIGHS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE REACHED
AROUND MID-DAY ARE ACTUALLY LOOKING REASONABLY MILD. ALTHOUGH
CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR 5+ DEGREE
ERRORS HERE....THIS LATEST FORECAST AIMS FOR A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM
MID 40S FAR NORTH...SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S CENTRAL...AND LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH. IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE
SPEED THAT COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED
RAISING THESE HIGHS EVEN FARTHER AND THIS MAY STILL NEED
CONSIDERED. PLEASE NOTE THOUGH...NO MATTER WHAT THE DAILY HIGH
TECHNICALLY IS...TEMPS BY THE 5PM MONDAY COMMUTE TIME WILL BE DOWN
QUICKLY TUMBLING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH...AND 40S SOUTH.
SWITCHING GEARS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE OFFICIALLY ONLY TWO TIME FRAMES WITH ANY
PRECIP/SNOW MENTION...THE FIRST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND AND MORE UNCERTAIN ONE NOT UNTIL NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FOCUSING FIRST ON THE MOST IMMEDIATE CHANCE
AND STARTING WITH MONDAY DAYTIME...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH NOON. THEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...AND ONLY A SPRINKLE/FLURRY
MENTION FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC
FRONT. TECHNICALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
HERE AND THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW FELT THE
SPRINKLE/FLURRY MENTION SHOULD SUFFICE...AS THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING HARDLY ANY PRECIP. THEN MONDAY
EVENING-NIGHT...THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST A LIGHT DUSTING OF WIND-
BLOWN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SWEEPS OVER THE CWA. MUCH LIKE
THE CASE WITH MONDAY TEMPERATURES...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EVEN 36-48 HOURS OUT WHETHER OR NOT MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...OR WHETHER PARTS OF THE AREA
COULD ACTUALLY REALIZE SOME LIGHT-BUT-NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION UP
TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW EFFICIENTLY THE
LOW-MID LEVEL COLUMN SATURATES...AND AT THIS TIME THE NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE BARELY FLURRIES THEORY...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY GEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AT LEAST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS ALL COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
DOWNPLAYING THINGS WITH ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
UP TO NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. GIVEN
THAT MID-LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE LACKING...ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW AM NOT SEEING THIS
AS A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...AND THUS WILL FOCUS THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.
NO MATTER WHAT DOES OR DOESN/T FALL FROM THE SKY ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF ANY SNOW
CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WOULD
NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AROUND THE TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH BETTER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MID-WEEK
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY COVERING
THE SNOW CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CURRENT
FORECAST ONLY HAS LOW 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...AND THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SHOWING
A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS SKIRTS THE
BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT HERE.
LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...NEED TO DEDICATE A PARAGRAPH HERE
TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SURGING ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND
THE INITIAL ARCTIC BLAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY...BEYOND WHICH SPEEDS AT LEAST DECREASE TO MORE MANAGEABLE
LEVELS. IN SHORT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF QUITE-STRONG
WINDS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AT LEAST
30-35 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 45-50 MPH. IN THE PAST...THIS WOULD
BE A SLAM-DUNK WIND ADVISORY EVENT...BUT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL
NEARBY OFFICES CEASED ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES AS OF NOV. 1ST. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. FORTUNATELY...HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
OF SUSTAINED 40+ MPH/GUSTS 58+ MPH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH THESE VALUES GIVEN THAT THE 06Z NAM IS DEPICTING A VERY
IMPRESSIVE 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY
8-15 MPH PLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH/GUST 30-35 MPH POTENTIAL...MAKING FOR A REAL
SLAP IN THE FACE CONSIDERING THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT
EVEN REACH 30 DEGREES ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2014
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ESPECIALLY THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST IS LOWER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONG COLD
FRONT ARE APPROACHING THE TERMINAL AREAS FROM THE NW. AT THIS
POINT...HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING CLOUD BASES IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS TO BE
JUST BEYOND THE 18Z END TIME TOMORROW OF THIS TAF. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SIDE FOR A TIME...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THAT THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS AFTER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
LLWS OUT OF THE TAF FOR LATER TONIGHT...SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARGINAL AT BEST CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
330 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST OFF SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL END AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL COME ON FRIDAY AFTER A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS INDICATE THE PCPN HAS
DEFINITELY BECOME MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS
MORNING. COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND SURF CITY COULD SEE
1 LAST CHANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE SFC LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN IS
NOW PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR TEMPORARY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH REGARD TO BOTH POPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. BOTH SREF
AND LATEST HRRR CONFIRM THE END OF PCPN TO OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET
ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT SUPPORT DIMINISHING WINDS TO EITHER VARIABLE LESS THAN 3
MPH OR POSSIBLY GOING COMPLETELY CALM AFTER SUNSET. THE VARIOUS SFC
PARAMETERS SUPPORT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS. THIS IN RESPONSE TO WINDS DECOUPLING
AS A RESULT OF A SFC BASED INVERSION. LATER SHIFTS WILL DETERMINE IF
THE FOG WORSENS GIVEN 00Z GUIDANCE BECOMING AVBL. TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NEARLY MIRROR ONE ANOTHER WITH
RESPECT TO TONIGHTS LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REACHING THE OFF
SHORE WATERS OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE E-NE
FARTHER AWAY FROM AREA. INITIALLY WILL EXPERIENCE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ON BACK END OF LOW AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE
COAST EARLY MONDAY. PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INLAND. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
GREATEST RH VALUES ABOVE H4 AND THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS
AROUND BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD AID IN WARMING OF TEMPS WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES...REACHING UP NEAR 70.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUES...THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND SOME
CLOUDS AND PCP WILL WRAP FAR ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW TO REACH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM KEEPS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
BRUSHING OUR COAST. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 1.7 INCHES TUES
MORNING ALONG THE NC COAST WHILE HEADING TOWARD FLORENCE SC THE
PCP WATER REMAINS BELOW A HALF INCH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
CLOUDS AND LOW END CHC OF PCP AFFECTING COASTAL ZONES..ESPECIALLY
NC COAST. INLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT AND THEN AS LOW LIFTS
AWAY ON TUES WILL SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH MOISTURE NOT REACHING FAR INLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS...EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND COULD BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS UP
NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST ON TUES WHILE INLAND DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY
REMAIN LESS THAN 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALSO AFFECT TEMPS. OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S MOST PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL DAY LOCALLY...BUT AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WKND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH WEAK CAA FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT FILTER INTO
THE REGION UNTIL A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH EARLY
FRIDAY. FRI/SAT WILL BOTH FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS ON THE SECONDARY SURGE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS QUITE DRY...AND WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED CHC POP FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
LITTLE QPF. WHILE FRI/SAT WILL BE COLD...THE TEMPS ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS CHILLY AS THE COLD SNAP EXPERIENCED THE BEGINNING
OF NOVEMBER. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER LOOKING AT THE DRIER GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAY FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...THAT IS TRACKING NE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AS THE
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST...LEAVING A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH A SFC BASED INVERSION LIKELY SETTING UP
MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT FOR
NOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MOISTURE IN THE SFC THRU 1K FOOT LEVEL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU
WITH A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED UNSETTLE WEATHER FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE FIRST LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING AND
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE ILM WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE ACROSS THE ILM WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
THE EARLY STAGES OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OVERALL...THE CURRENT AND PROGGED
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A NNE-NE WIND DIRECTION THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PG WILL YIELD 10-15 KT WIND
SPEEDS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK MON.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ILM
SC WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OFF
FLORIDA.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT. SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS
FOR BUOYS ACROSS THE ILM WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS ARE ILLUSTRATING WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO REMAIN THE MAJOR
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE 1 TO 2
FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP FROM FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE E-NE ON TUES. ALTHOUGH LOW REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH MON NIGHT. WNA HAS BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH
SHOULD WARRANT A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT WITH 5 FTERS IN OUTER
WATERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 6 FTERS INTO TUES MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT HEADING INTO MON
NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO N-NW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE E-NE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT MON
MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT MOST OF THE PERIOD IN
NORTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. MORE OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW LATER
TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING N/NE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT N/NE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS. A
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE ON
THURSDAY...ACTING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...AND TURNING WINDS
AGAIN TO THE NW BUT AT SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE OF 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THEREAFTER. WAVE
HEIGHTS THURSDAY BUILD TO 3-4 FT...AND THEN TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY WHEN
AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1254 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END ABRUPTLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS INDICATE THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN...CONTINUES TO HUG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF PCPN EXTENDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS...FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM THE
COAST...NEARLY UP TO THE BASE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WAS NOT
ANTICIPATING THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXTENDING THIS FAR
INLAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TODAYS MAXES BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES
LOW ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT WERE THOUGHT TO RECEIVE A DECENT DOSE OF
INSOLATION. AS FOR THE PCPN...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING...IN THAT NO INLAND OR WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED. THE R- WILL HUG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
ILM CWA MAINLAND BY EVENING. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SLIP EAST THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE NO WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND N-NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REAL
ACTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXIST: ONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW AND A
SECOND OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. IT`S THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST...INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.
RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
HUGGING THE COAST. THIS IS BEING GENERATED UP IN THE MID LEVELS BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 310K-315K THETA SURFACES... APPROXIMATELY
14000-18000 FEET UP. PRECIP RATES HAVE BECOME HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
DRY AIR BELOW THE ALTOSTRATUS BASE IS NOT ABLE TO EVAPORATE THE RAIN
BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW RAIN
ESSENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS RADAR RETURNS ARE OCCURRING
NOW...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY 14-15Z. WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE
RAISED POPS TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT OVER BALD HEAD ISLAND AND
COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH HIGHS FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS...AND GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD...63-65
FOR MOST AREAS.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND 850 MB THERE
APPEARS TO BE NO LIFT IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A CLOUD DECK...SO I WILL
FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW HAVE THE SHORTWAVE JUST ABOUT CUTOFF AS IT CROSSES FL
MON WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT STALLED WELL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND
PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER MON NIGHT AND ON TUE AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTH. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT SEEM ALL THAT
HIGH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL SYSTEM AND LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY. INHERITED A DRY
FORECAST AND HAVING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FEEL ONLY SLIGHT
CHC POP ALONG THE COAST IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN OVERCAST
AND CLEAR. IT COULD BE THAT COASTAL NC REMAINS UNDER OVC SKIES FOR
MOST OF TUE WHILE INLAND SC SEES LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS TUE MORNING. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD MON AND TUE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH BEHIND THE 5H LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY WED. PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. COLD ADVECTION POST FRONT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG
AT FIRST...BUT IT IS RELENTLESS. COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPS TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO THU. COLD ADVECTION GAINS
STRENGTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES. 850 TEMPS
WILL DROP FROM AROUND 10C THU AFTERNOON TO ZERO OR JUST BELOW FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LACKING DEEP MOISTURE
AND ACCOMPANIED BY...AT BEST...MARGINAL LIFT. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP LATER THU AND AGAIN FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND MID LEVELS COOL...INCREASING INSTABILITY. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE AND THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER LOOKING AT THE DRIER GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAY FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...THAT IS TRACKING NE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AS THE
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST...LEAVING A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH A SFC BASED INVERSION LIKELY SETTING UP
MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT FOR
NOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MOISTURE IN THE SFC THRU 1K FOOT LEVEL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL WED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS THU
WITH A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED UNSETTLE WEATHER FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...THE FIRST LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OF THE
ILM WATERS BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS
THE ILM WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING...THE AREA WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE EARLY
STAGES OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OVERALL...THE CURRENT AND
PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A NNE-NE WIND DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PG WILL YIELD 10-15 KT WIND
SPEEDS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT.
SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS FOR BUOYS ACROSS THE ILM AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...ALL ILLUSTRATE WIND DRIVEN WAVES
HAVING BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THE
1 TO 2 FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO WIND SHIFT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG TONIGHT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MODELS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WINDS:
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FEET EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR TONIGHT. ONE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY IS TO INCLUDE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN SHOULD LATE THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...5H TROUGH/LOW CROSSING FL MON MORNING WILL
ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE...PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE LATER TUE. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT A BIT.
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT LATER MON AND MON NIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STACKED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SEAS
WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT MON MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER MON AND
MON NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUE WILL KNOCK SEAS
DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE
GULF COAST WED WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THU BY PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. WEAK GRADIENT WED WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OFFSHORE INTO
WED NIGHT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THU WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. INITIAL COLD SURGE THU
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH NORTHEAST FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SECONDARY
SURGE THU NIGHT RESULTING IN A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THU
NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED INTO THU BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER THU
AND THU NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT IN NC ZONES
NEAR 20 NM LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/DL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST SUN NOV 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND OBS SHOW RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING THROUGH PUGET SOUND AT 830 AM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS
FORMED ALONG THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE. THE HRRR HINTS AT THIS
AND THE NAM12 SHOWS A MORE DEFINED CONVERGENCE ZONE GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 850 MB FLOW TURNS NWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN MORE NLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE SWD INTO THE REMAINDER
OF KING COUNTY AND NRN PIERCE COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AREAS IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
DRY OUT THE EVENING PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE CORRIDOR.
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SEWD TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OUT NEAR 135 N. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHT MONDAY MORNING SO THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS AND THE SW INTERIOR. MOST THE AREA WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50.
THINGS GET INTERESTING BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. WA WILL BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER N/CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A HUGE 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE
INTERIOR PAC NW...ROCKIES...AND EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG BY TUESDAY WITH KBLI-KYWL PEAKING
AT +15 TO +17 DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW ACROSS THE N INTERIOR AND NEAR GAPS ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THESE
AREAS WITH HIGH WIND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS WRN WHATCOM
COUNTY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST. MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO WRN WA. THE GFS
NORMALLY SPILLS TOO MUCH COOLER AIR INTO WRN WA BUT IT IS ONE OF THE
MILDER MODELS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -2 TO -4C...SIMILAR TO
THE WRFGFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM12/WRFNAM/CANADIAN ARE ALL VERY BULLISH
ON POURING THE COLD AIR INTO WRN WA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
MODELS ARE STRONGER WITH THE ELY 850 MB FLOW AND DEEPER WITH THE
COLD AIR ALLOWING IT TO SPILL OVER THE CASCADES RATHER THAN LEAK
THROUGH THE GAPS. THE NAM12/WRFNAM ARE THE COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -8 TO -12C ACROSS WRN WA TUESDAY. A NAM12 CROSS SECTION FROM
CALGARY TO HOQUIAM CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS COLD AIR SPILLAGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/CASCADES. AS A RESULT...MOS GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE ALL THE NEW 12Z RUNS BEFORE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TODAY
HIGHLIGHTING THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH SOME WIND...AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR MANY AREAS COULD OCCUR BY
MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED. MERCER
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OFF THE COAST STARTING TO GET PINCHED OFF WITH THE BROAD COLD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR
140W. COOL DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
40S. CHANGES IN THE PATTERN BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND FOR MANY MODEL RUNS IN A ROW THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HAD
A DIFFERENT IDEA ON HOW THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE.
ON THE 00Z RUN THE SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN LINE
WITH EACH OTHER BUT THE SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. BOTH MODELS
UNDERCUT THE HIGH WITH A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS STALLS THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN OREGON ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM JUST OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM SPREADING THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM
COMING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE AIR MASS
DRY AND COOL. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM IS VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST IS A
MESH OF THE MODELS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND
CENTRAL COAST AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM STALLED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 7 WITH THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
AREA AND THE NEXT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WELL TO THE WEST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL STAY
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME AND WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN
OR TWO BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE SATURDAY FORECAST.
FELTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE PRECIPITATION TOTAL AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT SO FAR
THIS YEAR IS 39.88 INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WITH TODAYS RAIN
THE YEARLY TOTAL WILL GO ABOVE 40 INCHES. THE EARLIEST DATE THAT THE
YEARLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL HAS SURPASSED 40 INCHES IN SEATTLE IS ON
OCTOBER 31ST IN THE RECORD YEAR OF 1950. IF SEATTLE SURPASSES THE 40
INCH MARK TODAY IT WOULD BE THE SECOND EARLIEST ON RECORD. FELTON
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE NORTH OREGON COAST THEN
WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
THEN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS PRES GRADIENTS RELAX. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY AND
STABILIZE TONIGHT. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
STEADY PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE CASCADES
AND TO SOME CONVERGENCE BANDS TO THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. A CONVERGENCE ZONE NOW SEEN AROUND
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTH TO THE SEATAC AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHOWERS. ALBRECHT
KSEA...SOUTHWEST WIND 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS A CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KT
THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP TO BKN020 WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS IS NOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL SPREAD
INTO THE STRAIT AND ADMIRALTY INLET LATER THIS MORNING. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING
WATERS.
GRADIENTS WILL RELAX AND TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS MON MORNING
AND AROUND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES LATER MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME OF THIS COLD HIGH PRES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE WATERS ALONG WITH FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...THROUGH THE STRAIT...AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
STARTING LATER MON NIGHT OR TUE AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH WED
NIGHT OR THU. WINDS WILL RELAX ON THU. ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ROUGH BAR
CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR.
&&