Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/08/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
952 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
PERSISTENT HAZE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG
WILL DECREASE EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STAGNANT AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
INVERSION CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A HAZE LAYER OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITIES WERE OBSERVED THROUGH PARTS
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM BAKERSFIELD NORTH INTO
MERCED...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVER
DOING THE DENSE FOG...BUT AT LEAST HAS A HANDLE ON THE LOW
VISIBILITY AREA...INDICATING LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH 10 AM.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST...WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BEING THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WELL INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS...AS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE IS CALLING FOR A HIGH MEASURE
OF PREDICTABILITY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PLANTED OVER CALIFORNIA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS NO RAIN FOR THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ADDITIONALLY...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICATION CENTERS 8 TO
14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 13TH THROUGH THE 19TH) THERE
IS AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN MIST/HAZE
THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...THEN MVFR IN HAZE UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY...THEN
IFR IN MIST WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6 2014... UNHEALTHY IN
KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND MADERA COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-06 87:1949 55:1890 57:1927 33:1947
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KBFL 11-06 91:1949 57:1945 60:1970 30:1935
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
256 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL
DECREASE EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITIES WERE OBSERVED THROUGH PARTS
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM BAKERSFIELD NORTH INTO
MERCED...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVER
DOING THE DENSE FOG...BUT AT LEAST HAS A HANDLE ON THE LOW
VISIBILITY AREA...INDICATING LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH 10 AM.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST...WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BEING THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WELL INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS...AS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE IS CALLING FOR A HIGH MEASURE
OF PREDICTABILITY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PLANTED OVER CALIFORNIA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS NO RAIN FOR THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ADDITIONALLY...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICATION CENTERS 8 TO
14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 13TH THROUGH THE 19TH) THERE
IS AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...MVFR IN HAZE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 10Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6 2014... UNHEALTHY IN KINGS AND TULARE
COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN AND
MADERA COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO
BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-06 87:1949 55:1890 57:1927 33:1947
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KBFL 11-06 91:1949 57:1945 60:1970 30:1935
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW A LULL IN THE SHOWER
COVERAGE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SHOWERS IS STILL LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS SOUTH OF
PHL MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST SLOWLY
LIMPS THROUGH TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT CAN MAKE IT
TODAY BEFORE WASHING OUT, SO EVEN THOUGH WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN ALL
DAY FROM ITS PASSAGE THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST/DRIZZLE AROUND.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF CLEARING OCCURS, MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
WE WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND THE DELAWARE BAY VICINITY.
HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW STRAY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. STRONGER WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITHIN
ANY ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ON THE UPPER
DELMARVA. THOSE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12:30 PM UPDATE SLOWS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT SOME, WHICH KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE TODAY AND IT WILL DEPEND UPON
A LOCATIONS RELATION TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SPEEDS
MAY INCREASE TO 8 TO 14 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE PASSING NEAR CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. IT SHOULD
PULL AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA AND A LIGHT WEST WIND
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER ALONG
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT. A WEST NORTHWEST
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT THAT TIME.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S UP NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NR THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BE MOVG NEWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION ERLY IN THE PD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
IMPROVING CONDS RESULT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR A GUSTY NW WIND THRU ERLY
FRI NIGHT.
THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND EXPECT DRY BUT COOL WX.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, A WK CDFNT,
ASSOCD WITH A LARGE LOW NR HUDSON BAY WILL CROSS N OF THE AREA AND
CUD TRIGGER SOME SHWRS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS
FRONT TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER. THE ECMWF IS BASICALLY DRY AND THE
GFS HAS SOME SHOWERS, WITH LOW QPF.
BEHIND THE CFP, HIGH PRES RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR MON INTO
EARLY TUE, BRINGING A RETURN OF NICE WX WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABV NRML.
THEN, THE MDLS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT
SYS AROUND MIDWEEK. THE GFS DEVELOPS LOW PRES IN THE MID-MS VLY
AND BRINGS A CDFNT THRU WITH SOME PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE AND A LESS DEFINED
FEATURE ACRS THE PLAINS AND OH VLY. IT MOVES THIS FEATURE SWD AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A WK LOW NR THE MID-ATLC WHICH THEN MOVES OUT
TO SEA.
DESPITE THE DIFFS THOUGH, THE OUTCOME IS THE SAME, SOME PRECIP ON
WED, THOUGH THE LOCATION AND TIMING MAY BE DIFFERENT.
FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS AND SEE HOW THIS SYS
EVOLVES.
TEMPS START OUT BELOW NRML, WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING SAT, THEN
BEGIN TO RETURN TO NRML OR SLIGHTLY ABV AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND SWLY FLOW RETURNS, BEFORE ANOTHER CFP COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREVIALING IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF
MIST/DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED TO MVFR LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AFTER MIDDAY AND COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD
BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS, SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINALS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND A STIFFER WEST WIND
DEVELOPS ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. A GUSTY NW WIND 20-30
KT THRU FRI NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN...MVFR PSBL AS A CDFNT APPROACHES AND CUD BRING SOME SHWRS.
LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AT NOON AND
IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AND FOR TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY FOR
TONIGHT.
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD NEAR
5 FEET ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE MUCH FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU FRI WITH THE
MRNG PACKAGE AND WITH NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE CFP ALSO RAISED SCA ON
DEL BAY. LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IS THE BEST CHC FOR GALES, BUT
STILL NOT SURE ON DURATION SO HAVE HELD OFF GALE WATCH ISSUANCE,
BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS.
SAT...WIND AND SEAS SHUD GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
SUN...A WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION, AND SEAS AND WIND WILL
INCREASE A BIT. ITS PSBL THAT MARGINAL SCA CONDS COULD BE MET FOR
A TIME, ESPECIALLY ERLY SUN.
MON...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/IOVINO/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1243 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.AVIATION...
E TO NE WINDS TO 10 KTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WAITING FOR POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT AND SEA BREEZE
AT APF THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW, N TO NW WINDS FROM 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK FROM NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A NORTH DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON, WNW AROUND 8 KTS. OTHERWISE E TO NE WINDS OF THE SAME
SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA`S
WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BE RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL
LOWER TO A MODERATE RISK THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO, WITH THIS
AIRMASS ORIGINATING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK QUICKLY MODIFYING THE AIRMASS BUT REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND DIMINISHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT EVEN AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO BUILDING
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 79 66 78 / 0 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 82 69 81 / 0 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 82 69 81 / 0 10 20 20
NAPLES 67 82 63 81 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MIAMI FL
831 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK FROM NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A NORTH DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON, WNW AROUND 8 KTS. OTHERWISE E TO NE WINDS OF THE SAME
SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA`S
WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BE RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL
LOWER TO A MODERATE RISK THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO, WITH THIS
AIRMASS ORIGINATING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK QUICKLY MODIFYING THE AIRMASS BUT REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND DIMINISHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT EVEN AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO BUILDING
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 65 79 66 / 20 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 73 82 69 / 20 0 10 20
MIAMI 83 69 82 69 / 20 0 10 20
NAPLES 84 67 82 63 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1224 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS FAR NW GA. A LINE OF SHOWERS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BREAK UP. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
DURING MAX HEATING...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS MOSTLY SCATTERED. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER...BUT POPS/TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK FINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
TIMING TOOL ON AREA RADAR SIGNATURES SHOW THE THIN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN 8 AM AND
10 AM THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING COLUMBUS AND MACON. STILL NO THUNDER EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE
ASSOCIATED RAIN FIELD THAT IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FAIRLY
BROKEN AND NARROW AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNL MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST... BUT PROGGED BY MODELS
TO SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN 6-9 AM THIS MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN PROBABLY PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING THE COLUMBUS AND MACON AREAS...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO PARTS OF
FAR CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 0.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GA... AND MAINLY
JUST A TRACE TO MAYBE 0.10 INCHES FOR SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL GA.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA BETWEEN 2-4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN COLUMBUS AND MACON BETWEEN 4-7 PM TODAY. EXPECT
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS ABOUT 6-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT... GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S... OR ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.
39
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE CWA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH BUILT IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF HAVE FINALLY
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 6 WITH A MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FOR DAY 7. THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT STARTS OF THE EXTENDED DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH SAT. BY SAT NIGHT IT HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING OFF SHORE
AS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPING SE THROUGH THE STATE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ONLY PUTTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUN
MORNING AND NOT TO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN. AFTER THIS DRY FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST CLEARING THINGS OUT FOR
MON/TUE. THERE IS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND SINKS SOUTH INTO NW GA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THIS FRONTAL PROGRESSION BUT THEY BOTH ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. LINE
OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO BREAK UP AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. SOME IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA...BUT
BEHIND THE PRECIP SKIES ARE CLEARING QUICKLY. SO...ANY CIGS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS SHOULD BREAK FAIRLY
QUICKLY. AS SOON AS SKIES START TO CLEAR...MIXING SHOULD BEGIN TO
OCCUR AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS FOR THE NEXT THREE HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 39 61 37 / 40 10 0 0
ATLANTA 69 40 58 39 / 40 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 63 34 55 31 / 60 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 67 36 57 34 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 42 62 41 / 30 5 0 0
GAINESVILLE 67 39 57 39 / 40 10 0 0
MACON 74 42 64 35 / 30 10 0 0
ROME 66 36 58 34 / 60 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 69 36 59 35 / 40 5 0 0
VIDALIA 78 46 66 40 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
219 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...829 PM CST
LOTS OF WX CONCERNS AS VIGOROUS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RACES ESE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT 01Z SURFACE LOW WAS JUST SOUTH
OF KLSE WITH AND MOVING EASTWARD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY
KILX/KDVN SOUNDINGS HAVE RESULTED IN A GOOD DEAL OF THIS PRECIP
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP DOWN SATURATION SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASING OF SCTD SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD FOR TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SCTD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PERSISTED AS ITS MOVED ACROSS IOWA AND SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 130KT+ 250MB JET THAT IS DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND HELPING CARVE OUT AND SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG ASCENT IN THAT LEFT EXIT REGION HAS COINCIDED NICELY WITH A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING ADVECTED
EASTWARD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING THE
ISOLD THUNDER. RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT MOVING IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SO WE HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT SOUTHERN CWA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN...THOUGH SOME SCTD MORE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE NIPPED AWAY AT POPS A BIT TOMORROW.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
ABOUT 5MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS
WITH LOCAL WRF ARW AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING A BULLSEYE OF 4-5MB/3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MIDDAY. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW TO NNW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE SO HELD OFF ON AN ADV MOST
AREAS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE THE ADDED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS
AND LESS FRICTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. THE HIGH
END GALE TO BRIEFLY NEAR STORM FORCE NW-NNW WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WAVES
ALONG EASTERN LAKE CO IN AND PORTER COUNTY INTO THE 14-18FT RANGE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY. THE
DUNES NOTED THAT THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE FROM THE HALLOWEEN
STORM AND THAT STORM ALSO WASHED AWAY A LOT OF THE SAND BARS THAT
TYPICALLY OFFER UP PROTECTION IN THESE EVENTS...WHICH MEANS AREAS
COULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PROBLEMS WITH TOMORROW`S HIGH WIND/WAVE
EVENT.
FINALLY...LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MOST
AREAS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND SHOULD RESULT IN
GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
IZZI/KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
245 PM...TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IL SHORE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF IOWA WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TOWARD MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BUT AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
EVENING...SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA IS FAIRLY LOW BUT IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE MINOR.
THE STRONGER GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR QUITE A WINDY DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 35 MPH RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
245 PM...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT AFTER STARTING WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE FRIDAY. GENERALLY HAVE MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET WARMER THAN THAT.
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK SOUTHERLY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY WITH
TIMING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT TIMING
WILL DEPEND ON ANY POTENTIAL NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS. INITIALLY...THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS PRECIP IS
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT AT THE MOMENT...QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO...OR POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 35
KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET FROM WHAT IS TO COME OVER THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THERE
ARE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ILLNOIS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS PASSING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
STARTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW CENTER NOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE COMING HOURS...THEN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ONSETTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ABATING LATE.
IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KMD/KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH WITH CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLT CHANCE OF SHRA FRI NGT. LIGHT WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. CHANCE OF A RA/SN
SHOWER MIX MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ONTO LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR MILWAUKEE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER MICHIGAN
STATE BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS...HIGH END GALE FORCE
TO NEAR STORM FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WIND EVENT WILL THEN UNFOLD DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AREA THAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY PRONE
TO A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE...MAINLY MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH GALES
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED THE IDEA OF A STORM
FORCE WINDS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE WE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 50 KT GUSTS...THE WINDOW OF TIME AS
MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO A 3-4 HR TIME WINDOW
EMBEDDED IN WHAT IS LARGELY A HIGH END GALE EVENT. EITHER
WAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY CREATING
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.
THIS LOW WILL BE CRUISING EASTWARD SUCH THAT GALES WILL SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
SLIDES OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT WITH THE
NORTH FETCH THAT ELEVATED WAVES WILL LINGER ALONG THE INDIANA AND
PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WELL INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH
WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS FOR NEXT WEEK.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...NOON THURSDAY TO 10
PM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...8 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 9
PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...8 AM THURSDAY TO 9
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1158 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...829 PM CST
LOTS OF WX CONCERNS AS VIGOROUS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RACES ESE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT 01Z SURFACE LOW WAS JUST SOUTH
OF KLSE WITH AND MOVING EASTWARD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY
KILX/KDVN SOUNDINGS HAVE RESULTED IN A GOOD DEAL OF THIS PRECIP
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP DOWN SATURATION SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASING OF SCTD SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD FOR TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SCTD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PERSISTED AS ITS MOVED ACROSS IOWA AND SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 130KT+ 250MB JET THAT IS DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND HELPING CARVE OUT AND SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG ASCENT IN THAT LEFT EXIT REGION HAS COINCIDED NICELY WITH A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING ADVECTED
EASTWARD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING THE
ISOLD THUNDER. RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT MOVING IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SO WE HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT SOUTHERN CWA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN...THOUGH SOME SCTD MORE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE NIPPED AWAY AT POPS A BIT TOMORROW.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
ABOUT 5MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS
WITH LOCAL WRF ARW AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING A BULLSEYE OF 4-5MB/3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MIDDAY. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW TO NNW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE SO HELD OFF ON AN ADV MOST
AREAS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE THE ADDED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS
AND LESS FRICTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. THE HIGH
END GALE TO BRIEFLY NEAR STORM FORCE NW-NNW WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WAVES
ALONG EASTERN LAKE CO IN AND PORTER COUNTY INTO THE 14-18FT RANGE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY. THE
DUNES NOTED THAT THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE FROM THE HALLOWEEN
STORM AND THAT STORM ALSO WASHED AWAY A LOT OF THE SAND BARS THAT
TYPICALLY OFFER UP PROTECTION IN THESE EVENTS...WHICH MEANS AREAS
COULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PROBLEMS WITH TOMORROW`S HIGH WIND/WAVE
EVENT.
FINALLY...LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MOST
AREAS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND SHOULD RESULT IN
GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
IZZI/KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
245 PM...TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IL SHORE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF IOWA WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TOWARD MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BUT AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
EVENING...SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA IS FAIRLY LOW BUT IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE MINOR.
THE STRONGER GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR QUITE A WINDY DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 35 MPH RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
245 PM...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT AFTER STARTING WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE FRIDAY. GENERALLY HAVE MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET WARMER THAN THAT.
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK SOUTHERLY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY WITH
TIMING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT TIMING
WILL DEPEND ON ANY POTENTIAL NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS. INITIALLY...THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS PRECIP IS
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT AT THE MOMENT...QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO...OR POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 35
KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET FROM WHAT IS TO COME OVER THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THERE
ARE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ILLNOIS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS PASSING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
STARTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW CENTER NOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE COMING HOURS...THEN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ONSETTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ABATING LATE.
IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KMD/KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH WITH CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLT CHANCE OF SHRA FRI NGT. LIGHT WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. CHANCE OF A RA/SN
SHOWER MIX MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES MIDDAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50KT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH EAST THIS EVENING...APPROACHING CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 15-25KT
FROM THE SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST 15-20KT...AGAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW. THEN AS THE LOW
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT BRIEFLY
DIMINISHES WITH WINDS DECREASING TEMPORARILY. THEN AS THE LOW SLIDES
EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
QUICK ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE
THE GALES FIRST...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE. THE PRESSURE RISES ARE THE STRONGEST
MIDDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...WHERE GALES COULD
APPROACH 45 KT. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KT MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 11AM-4PM THUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY FRI. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...BUT WITH THE NORTH FETCH EXPECT
ELEVATED WAVES ALONG THE INDIANA AND PERHAPS ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY FRIDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
ITS TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS RIGHT OVER THE
LAKE. SEVERAL MORE LOWS WILL IMPACT THE LAKE BEYOND THIS TIME...WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...NOON THURSDAY TO 10
PM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...8 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...8 AM THURSDAY TO 9
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CLEAR SKIES OF THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WAS GRADUALLY BEING MOISTENED BY VIRGA AND SOME SPRINKLES
WERE REPORTED AT THE OFFICE. A BAND OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WERE ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LOW TO MID 60S WERE REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WAS LOCATED THE LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME RASN IN
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SW MN...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE MSAS THE
PRESSURE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. ANALYZING THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGESTS THAT CONSALL AND BCCONSALL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CWA. AS
SUCH THE BEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THAT THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF BOTH SUGGEST PRECIP WITH
FROPA. A DECENT RADAR ECHO TO THE WEST MAKES ME THINK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY. WITH THE
SPRINKLES EARLIER AND THE HRRR RUNS...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
NEAR MORNING THE CAA PUMPS INTO THE AREA AND LEADS TO COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. IF PRECIP IS FALLING ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE...SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. DECIDED TO ADD SOME RASN IN THOSE COUNTIES AND
EVEN DUBUQUE COUNTY UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TO THE EAST THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND WILL LEAD
TO A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS WI AND IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TOMORROW. MOST
GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 35 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN LATER
IN THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE A MORE VOLATILE TURN DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AM EXPECTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI RIVER
VALLEY...YIELDING LOWS IN THE 22-28 DEGREE RANGE.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATES A WEAK FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ACROSS THE
NORTH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PHASING
ISSUES PERSIST AMONG THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SCENARIO IS LOW. TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF/GEM FAVOR A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MEANS WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND COLDER...WITH A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. PHASING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RESOLVE...AND WITH HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 5 DAYS OUT...WILL NOT
STRAY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY`S
HIGHS IS 45-55...WHICH LEAVES SOME WIGGLE ROOM EITHER WAY. POPS
RANGE FROM LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH...TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
VIGOROUS AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO SPILL INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS NEXT 10-18 HOURS
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AT DBQ/CID BY MORNING AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES TO BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AT ALL TERMINAL BETWEEN 06/19-06/23Z. NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
BELOW 10 MPH BY SUNSET.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1207 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2014
Forecast remains on track, with the cold front almost clearing the
forecast area. Wrap around stratus will overtake much of the
region for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.
Still expecting an uptick in shower activity as cold air aloft
pours in. HRRR and other hi-res models show scattered to numerous
showers, mainly along and north of I-64. Pea sized hail/graupel
and a rumble or two of thunder still looking possible.
Temperatures won`t be rising too much further, holding steady in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Issued at 845 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2014
Forecast is largely on track so far with just minor updates this
morning. Scattered showers developing just ahead of the cold front
produced pea sized hail across southern Indiana and will track east
over the next few hours. As the cold air mass surges south behind
the front, the cold pool aloft will steepen the low-level lapse
rates and there should be an uptick in shower activity. Already
upstream there are a few showers developing. 1000-850mb lapse rates
approach 9C/km this afternoon with some instability noted in the
soundings. The greatest chance for showers looks to be the northern
half of the forecast area. The steep lapse rates, weak instability
and cold air aloft will allow any of the stronger showers to be
capable of producing small pea sized hail and a rumble or two of
thunder. The boundary layer will be well mixed up to the 800mb,
which will bring down gusts to 30 mph at times as well.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
The front which has been hung up across Kentucky is finally shifting
to the east tonight as another front approaches from the northwest.
The surface low associated with this front will move east through
the Great Lakes region today while an upper level trough strengthens
across the area. This front will swing through most of the forecast
area by mid afternoon.
This morning scattered showers area ongoing across east central
Kentucky. These will move out of the area over the next few hours.
However, additional isolated to scattered showers are expected to
develop today as the front move through and the trough builds in.
The best chance for showers today will be across southern Indiana
and north central KY. As heights fall aloft this afternoon low level
lapse rates will steepen. A rumble of thunder or two is not
completely out of the question across the northern Bluegrass.
However, chances for this are low, so will keep thunder out of the
forecast for now. Showers will slowly move out overnight with just a
few lingering across the Bluegrass after 06Z.
In addition to showers, it will be quite breezy today. Winds will
pick up to 15-20 mph by mid to late morning. Gusts through the
afternoon will be up to around 30 mph. As for temperatures, they
will move little today. We will then see them begin to fall late
this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Lows tonight will drop
into the mid to upper 30s.
High pressure will build in tomorrow and skies will be clearing.
Despite this, temperatures will remain on the cool side, topping out
in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
An elongated vortmax looks to cross the region during the day
Saturday, with a surface front coming through as well. Deterministic
and ensemble models are in good agreement with this features. They
also show a light QPF event, if any rain. Will keep lower end pops,
but this round of models shows that the front may come through at
the right time of day to allow a little more instability to develop
showers in our south. Thus will introduce a 20 pop down there.
The next system to bring a rain chance looks to be on Tuesday.
Models have been fairly consistent run to run on timing this front
through on Tuesday. Moisture will be deeper with this system than
the Saturday one, and should the front come through during peak
heating we may end up with a few rumbles of thunder. Not overly
confident on that timing just yet, so will keep thunder out of the
forecast, but will trend pops upward.
Monday still looks to be the warmest day of the period, with highs
around 60. The coldest will be behind the Tuesday front. Forecast
lows for Wednesday morning range from 27-32 degrees areawide. Think
the dry air will rush in here too quickly for a significant shot at
snow on the back side of the system, but for now will keep in a
slight chance for snow showers after midnight east of the I-65
corridor.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1145 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
Main aviation forecast challenge will be ceilings and precipitation
chances through this evening as cold front swings through the area.
By 18Z the front will have passed through all TAF sites, with
westerly winds becoming northwesterly this evening. Wrap around
stratus upstream is MVFR with bases 1500 to 2500 ft, and this will
overtake SDF/LEX for the afternoon and evening hours. During peak
heating today, there will scattered to numerous showers developing
which will be capable of producing 25 to 30 kt gusts and maybe some
small graupel/hail. BWG is expected to remain on the periphery of
this cloud deck, with scattered to broken VFR ceilings through this
evening.
Most of the showers will subside toward sunset, but stratus will
linger through the evening at SDF/LEX and the latest model guidance
suggests the MVFR stratus will remain at LEX through tomorrow
morning. Winds will subside as high pressure works east toward the
region tonight and especially for tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1018 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTERWARDS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POP FURTHER TO THE E AND KEPT THE
AREAL PLACEMENT RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF MAINE IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS IS SEEN WELL ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY. THE RAP AND LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
3KM HANDLED THIS SETUP WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING DOWN BELOW
32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/ANY LEFTOVER SNOW ABLE TO
STICK. SOME PATCHY BLOW SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT W/THE SNOW
BEING OF DRIER CONTENT AND NW WINDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 25 MPH
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT FORECAST MINS STILL LOOK GOOD W/READING
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S N AND W AND UPPER 0S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST W/AROUND 30 FOR THE COAST.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CLEARING SHOWING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT
OVERNIGHT W/SOME CLEARING FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ON SAT WITH SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BRISK IN THE MORN...THEN
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTN WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND
QPF. THE NAM12 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOW BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS. ONLY MINOR
MODIFICATIONS MADE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN ACROSS NRN TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THIS EVE AND THEN TO
VFR AFT SN SHWRS EXIT THE FA. DOWNEAST SITES WILL IMPROVE FROM
MVFR LATE THIS AFTN IN RN/SN SHWRS TO VFR THIS EVE. ALL SITES
SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR ON SAT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN OVR
ALL OF OUR WATERS...THEN WOULD XPCT A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR SAT
MORN MSLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. WENT WITH OR A LITTLE BLO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS TNGT AND SAT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BECOMING LIGHT MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
105 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL
TURN WINDY ON THE LAKESHORE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND TIMING TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AFTER 03Z THE GFS LOWERS THE FREEZING LEVEL
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY.
THUS AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS
LOW...AND IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY AT THAT TIME. I KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS FOR TODAY...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS
RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS STRATIFORM RAIN. RADAR SHOWS THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NEARLY ALL LOCATION SHOULD
MEASURE...BUT THE REASONING FOR THE HIGH POPS.
AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE MOST DEEP FROM
LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. THIS IS WHERE I WILL FEATURE GENERALLY
LIKELY POPS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN EVENT AS WELL AS THE
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST MELTING WILL OCCUR. INTERIOR NORTHER LOCATIONS
LIKE HARRISON COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN GIVEN THE COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT MIXED
PCPN WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WELL NORTH OF I-96 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AIDED BY
POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PORTIONS OF
OUR FCST AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS BY THEN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA.
NW TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12 C BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.
AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME FAVORS
NORTHERN LOWER MI AND UPPER MI FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMS TUE-WED DUE TO GREATER DELTA T/S... DEEPER MOISTURE AND
AIRMASS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN SO... SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR DETROIT AT NOON PULLS AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR
TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS AND CIGS LIFT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3000 FT.
MODERATE ICING OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN MI FROM THE FRZG
LVL TO 15000 FT. FRZLVL BETWEEN 3000-5000 FT AT 18Z FALLING TO
2000-4000 FEET BY 00Z. ICING THREAT DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS RAIN ENDS/DEPARTS.
THE IMPROVING TREND IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST... WITH MKG
SEEING IMPROVING CIGS AND DIMINISHING ICING THREAT EARLIEST AND
JXN THE LATEST. SEE TAFS FOR THE SPECIFIC CIG TIMING/DETAILS.
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS OR MORE DEVELOPING BY 21Z AND CONTINUING TO
AROUND 03Z. NNW SFC WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 03Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FSL RUC AND DEEPER
MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GALES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER AS WELL..THUS I WILL HAVE THE GALES STARTING AROUND
18Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER
RISES WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL
TURN WINDY ON THE LAKESHORE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND TIMING TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AFTER 03Z THE GFS LOWERS THE FREEZING LEVEL
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY.
THUS AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS
LOW...AND IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY AT THAT TIME. I KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS FOR TODAY...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS
RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS STRATIFORM RAIN. RADAR SHOWS THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NEARLY ALL LOCATION SHOULD
MEASURE...BUT THE REASONING FOR THE HIGH POPS.
AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE MOST DEEP FROM
LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. THIS IS WHERE I WILL FEATURE GENERALLY
LIKELY POPS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN EVENT AS WELL AS THE
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST MELTING WILL OCCUR. INTERIOR NORTHER LOCATIONS
LIKE HARRISON COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN GIVEN THE COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT MIXED
PCPN WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WELL NORTH OF I-96 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AIDED BY
POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PORTIONS OF
OUR FCST AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS BY THEN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA.
NW TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12 C BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.
AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME FAVORS
NORTHERN LOWER MI AND UPPER MI FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMS TUE-WED DUE TO GREATER DELTA T/S... DEEPER MOISTURE AND
AIRMASS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN SO... SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
IMPACTS TO AVIATORS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND THEY WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKESHORE.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO VFR AS
DRIER AIR COMES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FSL RUC AND DEEPER
MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GALES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER AS WELL..THUS I WILL HAVE THE GALES STARTING AROUND
18Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER
RISES WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL
TURN WINDY ON THE LAKESHORE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND TIMING TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AFTER 03Z THE GFS LOWERS THE FREEZING LEVEL
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY.
THUS AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS
LOW...AND IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY AT THAT TIME. I KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS FOR TODAY...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS
RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS STRATIFORM RAIN. RADAR SHOWS THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NEARLY ALL LOCATION SHOULD
MEASURE...BUT THE REASONING FOR THE HIGH POPS.
AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE MOST DEEP FROM
LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. THIS IS WHERE I WILL FEATURE GENERALLY
LIKELY POPS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN EVENT AS WELL AS THE
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST MELTING WILL OCCUR. INTERIOR NORTHER LOCATIONS
LIKE HARRISON COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN GIVEN THE COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT MIXED
PCPN WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WELL NORTH OF I-96 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AIDED BY
POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PORTIONS OF
OUR FCST AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS BY THEN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA.
NW TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12 C BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.
AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME FAVORS
NORTHERN LOWER MI AND UPPER MI FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMS TUE-WED DUE TO GREATER DELTA T/S... DEEPER MOISTURE AND
AIRMASS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN SO... SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR THEN IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AS LOWER CLOUDS
AND RAIN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
THEN VFR THURSDAY EVENING AS CIGS IMPROVE AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FSL RUC AND DEEPER
MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GALES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER AS WELL..THUS I WILL HAVE THE GALES STARTING AROUND
18Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER
RISES WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY IS NOW LEAVING
MILWAUKEE AND ON ITS WAY TO MUSKEGON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF ITS WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WERE PULLING OUT OF ALBERT LEA AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3
AM...WITH THE REST OF THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS 12 HR H5 HEIGHT RISES
INCREASE TO OVER 120 M THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
MONTANA QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
BIGGEST ISSUE IN WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE SEEN A NICE
HOLE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS
BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. WITH FLOW REMAINING CYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO FILL IN ONCE WE GET SOME
DAYTIME MIXING GOING SO TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE FOR THE SKY
GRIDS TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS...WITH THE DAKOTAS
CLOUD BANK KEEPING A BKN STRATOCU FIELD GOING MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MPX CWA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AS A SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STARTS WORKING INTO MN...WE WILL START TO SEE
WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUR RUN OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TONIGHT...THE
NEXT FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAA PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN FACT...ALL HI-RES MODELS ARE
FORECASTING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BELOW H7 OUT WEST
SHOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA. THE TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT THOUGH WILL BE LOWS. WE WILL BE
STARTING OUT THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...SO WILL
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE AREA THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND THEREFORE GET
THE COLDEST IS OVER IN WRN WI. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH..THEN PLACES OUT TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS AND LADYSMITH COULD
SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SECONDARY FORECAST EMPHASIS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN FULL
SWING...WHILE H7-H6 FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LOWER 40S OVER WI. THIS WILL MEAN PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWS THE PRECIP TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH
OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT JUST PRIOR TO IT ENDING.
TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...AS A
SURFACE LOW DIPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THAT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING PRECIP IN MUCH
SOONER ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE GEM AND TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF
/HOPWRF-TS/ ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS....AND BRING IN PRECIP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS AGAIN AN UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE RAIN-SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND FORCING GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN-SNOW COMING TO AN END. WILL LIKELY
SEE FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER HEIGHTS SLAM INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BLASTING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE MARKED BY DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AS H85 TEMPS LOITER AROUND -12C TO -15C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
IFR CIGS LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR OVER THE WEST. MVFR CIGS REMAIN
TO THE EAST IN WEST CENTRAL WI. WEDGE OF SKC IN BETWEEN IS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN WITH MORE STRATOCUMULUS NOW...IN THE
2500-3000K FT LEVEL. THE TREND OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THE
STRATOCU TO THE WEST TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REPLACING THAT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. LOWERING CIGS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE
MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT. TOO LOW OF PROBABILITY TO
INCLUDE IN KAXN FOR NOW. THE MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AS WELL. WILL
KEEP ARE DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY WORK INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT GUSTY
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EVENING AND BECOMING
S/SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING GRADIENT.
KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS 2500-3000FT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS
WESTERN MN MOISTURE MOVES IN. THIS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE -SHRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. NW
WINDS A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AN
BECOMING S-SE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY IS NOW LEAVING
MILWAUKEE AND ON ITS WAY TO MUSKEGON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF ITS WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WERE PULLING OUT OF ALBERT LEA AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3
AM...WITH THE REST OF THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS 12 HR H5 HEIGHT RISES
INCREASE TO OVER 120 M THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
MONTANA QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
BIGGEST ISSUE IN WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE SEEN A NICE
HOLE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS
BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. WITH FLOW REMAINING CYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO FILL IN ONCE WE GET SOME
DAYTIME MIXING GOING SO TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE FOR THE SKY
GRIDS TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS...WITH THE DAKOTAS
CLOUD BANK KEEPING A BKN STRATOCU FIELD GOING MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MPX CWA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AS A SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STARTS WORKING INTO MN...WE WILL START TO SEE
WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUR RUN OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TONIGHT...THE
NEXT FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAA PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN FACT...ALL HI-RES MODELS ARE
FORECASTING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BELOW H7 OUT WEST
SHOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA. THE TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT THOUGH WILL BE LOWS. WE WILL BE
STARTING OUT THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...SO WILL
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE AREA THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND THEREFORE GET
THE COLDEST IS OVER IN WRN WI. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH..THEN PLACES OUT TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS AND LADYSMITH COULD
SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SECONDARY FORECAST EMPHASIS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN FULL
SWING...WHILE H7-H6 FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LOWER 40S OVER WI. THIS WILL MEAN PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWS THE PRECIP TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH
OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT JUST PRIOR TO IT ENDING.
TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...AS A
SURFACE LOW DIPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THAT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING PRECIP IN MUCH
SOONER ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE GEM AND TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF
/HOPWRF-TS/ ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS....AND BRING IN PRECIP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS AGAIN AN UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE RAIN-SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND FORCING GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN-SNOW COMING TO AN END. WILL LIKELY
SEE FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER HEIGHTS SLAM INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BLASTING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE MARKED BY DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AS H85 TEMPS LOITER AROUND -12C TO -15C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH CLOUD COVER. SFC
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A SFC RIDGE ARCING AROUND THE NW SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW NOW MOVING INTO WEST MICH. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE HAS HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NRN MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A FINGER OF IFR CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS WRN MN AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO REMAIN MOIST...WITH
CU RULE FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE ON THE NAM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE WE GET A LITTLE HEATING/MIXING
GOING...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
DEVELOP...LIKELY HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR. WHATS LEFT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET...BUT NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO THICKENING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. RH PROFILES BELOW 10K FEET ARE QUITE DRY
AT AXN/RWF AT THE END OF THE TAF...SO KEPT THOSE LOCATIONS
DRY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE SEEING VIRGA BY THE END OF THE TAF.
KMSP...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 025-035. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY OUT IN WRN MN WILL
REMAIN WEST OF MSP...WITH CLOUDS HERE EXPECTED TO BE NO LOWER THAN
020. WINDS WILL BE GOOD FOR RUNNING A 30/35 OPERATION
TODAY...WITH WINDS CONVENIENTLY SWITCHING BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT
WHEN TRAFFIC IS LIGHT. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME VIRGA BY THE END OF
THE TAF...BUT DRY ATMO BELOW 10K SHOULD KEEP IT AT THAT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY IS NOW LEAVING
MILWAUKEE AND ON ITS WAY TO MUSKEGON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF ITS WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WERE PULLING OUT OF ALBERT LEA AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3
AM...WITH THE REST OF THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS 12 HR H5 HEIGHT RISES
INCREASE TO OVER 120 M THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
MONTANA QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
BIGGEST ISSUE IN WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE SEEN A NICE
HOLE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS
BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. WITH FLOW REMAINING CYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO FILL IN ONCE WE GET SOME
DAYTIME MIXING GOING SO TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE FOR THE SKY
GRIDS TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS...WITH THE DAKOTAS
CLOUD BANK KEEPING A BKN STRATOCU FIELD GOING MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MPX CWA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AS A SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STARTS WORKING INTO MN...WE WILL START TO SEE
WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUR RUN OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TONIGHT...THE
NEXT FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAA PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN FACT...ALL HI-RES MODELS ARE
FORECASTING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BELOW H7 OUT WEST
SHOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA. THE TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT THOUGH WILL BE LOWS. WE WILL BE
STARTING OUT THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...SO WILL
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE AREA THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND THEREFORE GET
THE COLDEST IS OVER IN WRN WI. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH..THEN PLACES OUT TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS AND LADYSMITH COULD
SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SECONDARY FORECAST EMPHASIS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN FULL
SWING...WHILE H7-H6 FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LOWER 40S OVER WI. THIS WILL MEAN PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWS THE PRECIP TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH
OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT JUST PRIOR TO IT ENDING.
TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...AS A
SURFACE LOW DIPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THAT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING PRECIP IN MUCH
SOONER ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE GEM AND TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF
/HOPWRF-TS/ ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS....AND BRING IN PRECIP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS AGAIN AN UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE RAIN-SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND FORCING GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN-SNOW COMING TO AN END. WILL LIKELY
SEE FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER HEIGHTS SLAM INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BLASTING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE MARKED BY DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AS H85 TEMPS LOITER AROUND -12C TO -15C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI...BUT
IT IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. IFR CIGS SHROUD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER VFR CIGS ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THESE BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS ERN MN AND
WRN WI LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD CLIP AXN AND STC BEFORE MORE IFR
CIGS ACROSS ERN ND MOVE BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL RISE
GRADUALLY THURSDAY AND CLEAR OUT LATE IN THE DAY.
KMSP...IFR CONDITIONS AT THE START...BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS S 10 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1153 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
NEAR TERM FCST PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA SWEEPING OUT OF CANADIAN AND INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. ALL THIS IN PART TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF SITUATED OVER THE ERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS REVEALING A SFC LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SWD THRUST OF CAA MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. RUC13 SHOWING SFC PRES GRAD REMAINING TIGHT
THE REST OF THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM W-E THIS
AFTN.
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS...GOING MAX/MIN TEMP FCST COMPARED MET/MAV
GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEM REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF CAA TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
U40S/L50S.
ON FRIDAY...WAA REGIME SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SERN STATES. MET HIGHS SEEM TO
COOL GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLY FLOW AND PREFER LEANING TOWARD WARMER
MAV/ECM SOLUTIONS.
FOR SAT...MET/MAV ARE IN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WHEN BULK OF CAA MOVES IN. NUMBERS SEEM REASONABLE THUS SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARE IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED PDS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE PCPN SUN NIGHT/MON WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH. IT SEEMS YESTERDAYS CMC RUN HAD THE RIGHT IDEA LAYING QPF
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AND NOW
WITH BOTH GFS/ECM ARE ADVERTISING THE SAME...HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS.
OTHERWISE....NOTICEABLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON ENVELOPES THE REGION AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 10-20KTS AFTER 12Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
...STILL NO MEANINGFUL PRECIP ENVISIONED AND TEMPS ALTERNATE
COOLER/WARMER EACH DAY THRU MON BEFORE A HUGE COLD SURGE NEXT
WEEK...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE FLOW FEATURED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND
TROF IN THE E. A SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THRU THE
RIDGE. THE FLOW HERE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NW TODAY
AND BACK TO WNW TONIGHT AS THE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THRU.
SURFACE: THE REGION WAS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
HIGH PRES WAS OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL SLIP E OF THE REGION TODAY.
THE PAC LOW MOVING ONSHORE WILL REFORM OVER ALBERTA...WITH ITS
COOL FRONT MOVING ONSHORE AND A WARM FRONT FORMING FROM MT-WY-CO.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE COOL FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.
NO ADVERSE WX EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT.
THRU SUNRISE: P-M/CLOUDY AS LARGE SWATHS OF CIRROSTRATUS AND
ALTOCU DRIFT THRU. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WITH PLENTY OF
COLOR. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR 6-7 AM AND WILL BE IN THE 30S.
TODAY: P-M/SUNNY AND ROUGHLY 10F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PLENTY OF CIRROSTRATUS SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUN AT TIMES.
TONIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
IN. FCST SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM M/CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY AND
BELIEVE WE ARE STILL TOO LOW. ENVISION SKIES TURNING M/CLOUDY SO
LATER FCSTS WILL PROBABLY BE CLOUDIER.
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS /BC-CONSRAW/
FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT TRANSLATES TO 54-61F WITH
56-57 FOR THE TRI-CITIES TODAY...AND 33-40F TONIGHT WITH 37-38F IN
THE TRI-CITIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE HOW COLD IT WILL BECOME NEXT WEEK.
WE START OUT FRIDAY WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT PASSAGE AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. I LIKED A COMBINATION OF CONSRAW AND
NAM12 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...WHICH LANDS US WELL INTO THE
60S FOR HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. I TEND TO
LIKE BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS FOR THE DAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THIS ACTUALLY BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MOST LIKELY WITH HELP OF SOME
DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL ENSUE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS AMPLIFICATION OCCURS AMONG LONGWAVES...AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST WITH THE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY
OVERCOME MUCH OF THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN TRYING TO OCCUR OVER
PART OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND TO THE WEST. ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE CLOBBERED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH BEHIND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER...BUT THE BULK OF COLD AIR DOES NOT
APPEAR TO MAKE IT IN FOR MOST OF MONDAY...SO NOT GOING INCREDIBLY
COLD FOR THIS DAY...BUT A TRICKY GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL
KEEP THINGS CHALLENGING...WITH 40S TO 60S FOR HIGHS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MOST MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. WE COULD ALSO GET ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS TO EVEN
GET SOME SNOW FLURRIES GOING MONDAY NIGHT.
WE GET COMPLETELY CLOBBERED BY COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT OF THIS AS LONG-TERM NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. IT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
AND WITH THIS IN MIND...I WENT WITH CONSRAW TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONSRAW PERFORMS THE BEST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT
LEAST IN THE -7C REALM OVER OUR CWA. THIS INDICATES THAT WE WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND WITH ANY CONSIDERABLE SKY
COVER...WE MAY BE DESTINED TO NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR. LONG
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THESE TWO
DAYS...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED...SINCE MODELS ARE RELYING WAY TOO
MUCH ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SITUATION THAT DOES NOT WARRANT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
TODAY: LLWS WILL CONT UNTIL 15Z. VFR MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FT. ONLY THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MID-
LVL CIGS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NEB PER SATELLITE. NW WINDS UNDER
10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES DRIFTS OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR CIRROSTRATUS CIGS AT OR ABOVE 20K FT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME S-SSE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM AFTER 08Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
514 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
NEAR TERM FCST PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA SWEEPING OUT OF CANADIAN AND INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. ALL THIS IN PART TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF SITUATED OVER THE ERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS REVEALING A SFC LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SWD THRUST OF CAA MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. RUC13 SHOWING SFC PRES GRAD REMAINING TIGHT
THE REST OF THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM W-E THIS
AFTN.
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS...GOING MAX/MIN TEMP FCST COMPARED MET/MAV
GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEM REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF CAA TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
U40S/L50S.
ON FRIDAY...WAA REGIME SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SERN STATES. MET HIGHS SEEM TO
COOL GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLY FLOW AND PREFER LEANING TOWARD WARMER
MAV/ECM SOLUTIONS.
FOR SAT...MET/MAV ARE IN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WHEN BULK OF CAA MOVES IN. NUMBERS SEEM REASONABLE THUS SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARE IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED PDS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE PCPN SUN NIGHT/MON WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH. IT SEEMS YESTERDAYS CMC RUN HAD THE RIGHT IDEA LAYING QPF
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AND NOW
WITH BOTH GFS/ECM ARE ADVERTISING THE SAME...HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS.
OTHERWISE....NOTICEABLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON ENVELOPES THE REGION AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
AREA OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN FL015 AND FL025 WILL AFFECT KOFK AND
KOMA THROUGH MID MORNING AS CLOUDS ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS MAY REACH KLNK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KT AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 18Z WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 12KT THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
NEAR TERM FCST PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA SWEEPING OUT OF CANADIAN AND INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. ALL THIS IN PART TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF SITUATED OVER THE ERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS REVEALING A SFC LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SWD THRUST OF CAA MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. RUC13 SHOWING SFC PRES GRAD REMAINING TIGHT
THE REST OF THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM W-E THIS
AFTN.
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS...GOING MAX/MIN TEMP FCST COMPARED MET/MAV
GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEM REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF CAA TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
U40S/L50S.
ON FRIDAY...WAA REGIME SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SERN STATES. MET HIGHS SEEM TO
COOL GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLY FLOW AND PREFER LEANING TOWARD WARMER
MAV/ECM SOLUTIONS.
FOR SAT...MET/MAV ARE IN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WHEN BULK OF CAA MOVES IN. NUMBERS SEEM REASONABLE THUS SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARE IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED PDS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE PCPN SUN NIGHT/MON WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH. IT SEEMS YESTERDAYS CMC RUN HAD THE RIGHT IDEA LAYING QPF
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AND NOW
WITH BOTH GFS/ECM ARE ADVERTISING THE SAME...HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS.
OTHERWISE....NOTICEABLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON ENVELOPES THE REGION AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHEAST SD IS STILL
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT MAY CLIP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KOMA IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY KOFK TO BRING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH MORNING...WITH A FEW VFR
CLOUDS APPROACHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SLACKENING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1119 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS HOW FAR SOUTH A CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IA CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA...THEN EASING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. LATEST
NAM/RAP WOULD SUGGEST CLOUDS MAKE IT EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH/WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST HRRR JUST GIVES US
A GLANCING BLOW. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS UP ABOUT A DEGREE ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD FROM OMAHA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG TO OUR EAST AIDED BY A 120+ KT 300MB JET.
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...AN AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES OUR REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
SUBZERO 850MB AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL DOWN WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS SHOULD
KEEP SFC WINDS UP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND IT BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND COULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PCPN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SUBZERO 850MB AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AREA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM THE POLAR REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. AS ALWAYS...TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING REGARDING PCPN
TYPES. THE 12Z GFS IS FAIRLY BULLISH WITH THE QPF WHEREAS THE 12
ECMWF REMAINS QUITE A BIT DRIER. WILL STILL INCLUDE SMALL POPS IN
OUR NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN TO BEGIN WITH..THEN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PCPN EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHEAST SD IS STILL
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT MAY CLIP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KOMA IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY KOFK TO BRING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH MORNING...WITH A FEW VFR
CLOUDS APPROACHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SLACKENING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
143 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING OHIO LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AT 1000 AM...RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM JHW-ROC WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS. THIS AREA IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE HRRR (AND MOST OTHER
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE)...WHICH IS JUST A HAIR FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. EXPECT THIS SLUG OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND BRING A STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT TO
MOST OF THE CWA. THE ONLY AREAS WHICH MAY MISS OUT ARE FAR NW
PORTIONS...SUCH AS NIAGARA COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE FORCING. QPF SHOULD RUN BETWEEN .50 AND .75 ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED UNDER THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY AREA WHICH HAS A CHANCE TO
WARM IS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE RAIN
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHILLY
AND RAINY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT WITH A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION PUSHED BACK IN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AN INCREASE INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINED EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREA SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
FURTHERMORE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL AND DIURNAL TIMING WILL
COINCIDE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE BEGIN
WHAT WILL BE A PARADE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A
DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE IN THE MORNING TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL COUPLE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE SUPPORTED BY A PERIOD OF DPVA AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY...ALLOWING PRECIP COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST.
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS INTO
THE REGION WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOLING
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A TREND TOWARDS MAINLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE
1-2 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON THE GRASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT...BUT
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC...GREATLY
DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO END DURING THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A MEAN 320
FLOW DURING THE EVENING FAVORING AREAS FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH JUST A
SPOTTY COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE APPROACHING RIDGE
AXIS AND BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THIS TO END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ASCENT INTO WESTERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY LATER IN THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT FIRST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AROUND THE TIME OF THE
FROPA TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE LAKES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE RAIN INITIALLY WHEN THIS
BEGINS TO OCCUR. COLD ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOWS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO MIX WITH WET SNOW FIRST ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN THEN LATER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS.
A PERIOD OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A DECIDED
TREND TOWARDS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. WHILE THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WIDE RUN TO RUN SWINGS
IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...SUNDAY MORNING A CHILLY WESTERLY FLOW OF
-8C TO -10C AIR AT 850MB WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH A RIDGE NEARBY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS
MAY LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF LAKE SNOW. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BRING INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM
THE CENTRAL LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. LATEST
GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF MAKING A MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
ECMWF APPEARS MUCH TOO FAST AND TOO FAR EAST WITH A MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW RACING ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS AND ALSO THE 12Z
ECMWF...IN MOVING THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OUR PREFERENCE LIES WITH
THE 00Z/06 GFS AND 12Z/05 ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH WITH THE ONGOING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ANY FORECAST OF PLACEMENT OR INTENSITY
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PREMATURE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO
WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AND
INCREASES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING TO LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT ANOTHER AREA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SNOW MIXING IN SPOTS ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO / LAKE ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING OHIO LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AT 1000 AM...RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM JHW-ROC WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS. THIS AREA IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE HRRR (AND MOST OTHER
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE)...WHICH IS JUST A HAIR FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. EXPECT THIS SLUG OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND BRING A STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT TO
MOST OF THE CWA. THE ONLY AREAS WHICH MAY MISS OUT ARE FAR NW
PORTIONS...SUCH AS NIAGARA COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE FORCING. QPF SHOULD RUN BETWEEN .50 AND .75 ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED UNDER THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY AREA WHICH HAS A CHANCE TO
WARM IS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE RAIN
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHILLY
AND RAINY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT WITH A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION PUSHED BACK IN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AN INCREASE INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINED EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREA SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
FURTHERMORE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL AND DIURNAL TIMING WILL
COINCIDE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE BEGIN
WHAT WILL BE A PARADE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A
DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE IN THE MORNING TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL COUPLE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE SUPPORTED BY A PERIOD OF DPVA AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY...ALLOWING PRECIP COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST.
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS INTO
THE REGION WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOLING
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A TREND TOWARDS MAINLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE
1-2 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON THE GRASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT...BUT
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC...GREATLY
DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO END DURING THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A MEAN 320
FLOW DURING THE EVENING FAVORING AREAS FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH JUST A
SPOTTY COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE APPROACHING RIDGE
AXIS AND BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THIS TO END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ASCENT INTO WESTERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY LATER IN THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT FIRST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AROUND THE TIME OF THE
FROPA TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE LAKES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE RAIN INITIALLY WHEN THIS
BEGINS TO OCCUR. COLD ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOWS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO MIX WITH WET SNOW FIRST ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN THEN LATER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS.
A PERIOD OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A DECIDED
TREND TOWARDS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. WHILE THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WIDE RUN TO RUN SWINGS
IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...SUNDAY MORNING A CHILLY WESTERLY FLOW OF
-8C TO -10C AIR AT 850MB WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH A RIDGE NEARBY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS
MAY LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF LAKE SNOW. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BRING INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM
THE CENTRAL LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. LATEST
GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF MAKING A MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
ECMWF APPEARS MUCH TOO FAST AND TOO FAR EAST WITH A MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW RACING ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS AND ALSO THE 12Z
ECMWF...IN MOVING THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OUR PREFERENCE LIES WITH
THE 00Z/06 GFS AND 12Z/05 ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH WITH THE ONGOING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ANY FORECAST OF PLACEMENT OR INTENSITY
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PREMATURE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE
INITIAL RAINFALL...WITH MORE ABRUPT LOWERING TO THE IFR CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NE. LOWER
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHERLY AND INCREASES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT ANOTHER AREA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SNOW MIXING
IN SPOTS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO / LAKE ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/APFFEL
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
332 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF APPROACHING AND COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EARLIER CANOPY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED TO A BAND ROUGHLY 50 TO 80 MILES WIDE...WITH
THE CENTER LINE EXTENDING FROM THE VA CAPES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
FAYETTEVILLE AND DARLINGTON TO AUGUSTA. WITH INSOLATION REACHING THE
GROUND HAVING BEEN A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL THAN THOUGHT...AFTN TEMPS
HAVE RESPONDED TO THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ILM SC
COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 76. OF NOTE...A PINNED SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED WITH LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE TEMPORARY BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS TO A S-SSW
DIRECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOWER TEMPS NOW BEING EXHIBITED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WITH BASICALLY CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVING BEEN REACHED...CU
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED
AS WINDS ALOFT DO NOT TAP ANY MAJOR MOISTURE SOURCES...AND ARE
PROGGED TO VEER TO THE WSW-W LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. THUS THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN SCOURING OUT MOISTURE AFTER
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. OVERALL...HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER TO
JUST ISOLATED CHANCE AT BEST...AND MAINLY INLAND. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THE LATEST SREF OUTPUT THAT ILLUSTRATES ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MEASURABLE PCPN OF 0.01 INCHES ACROSS THE FA...THRU THIS
EVENING.
THE FA WILL BE UNDER FULL CAA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE EXCELLENT CAA
AND TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL YIELD A GUSTY NW WIND DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATE THE FA. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...RATHER SHARP TROUGH AND FAIRLY STRONG VORT
CENTER BOTH STREAKING OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A
FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL. AS A WEAK HIGH SLIDES
BY ON SATURDAY THE AFTERNOON MAY END UP A BIT COOLER AS WARM
ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY SHALLOWER MIXING. LATEST GUIDANCE HOWEVER
SUGGESTS SIMILAR HIGHS BOTH DAYS AND SO THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN
MINIMIZED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL START
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE WARMER AIRMASS PAIRED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
INTERESTING AS FOCUS WILL BE TURNED TO TWO SOMEWHAT WEAK SYSTEMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HEALTHY TROUGH AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH FL DIFFERS HOWEVER ACROSS THE MODELS. THE GFS STEERS THE
DISTURBANCE UP ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA COAST AS A COASTAL LOW AND
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS ITS TRACK EAST OFF THE FL COAST. ACROSS OUR AREA...WE WILL SEE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1
INCH AS A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY VARIANCE COULD ADJUST MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC
PLACEMENT...THUS HAVE LEFT IN LOW POPS FOR NOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...EXPECT A CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN
THE MID 40S. INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST STEMMING DOWN FROM A LOW
PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE ROUGHLY AGREES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING IN
BEHIND IT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AGAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL...SO WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF ANY POPS ATTM.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BECOMING WESTERLY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH A SOMEWHAT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WITH LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST AROUND MID MORNING AS SOLAR INSOLATION HELPS THE MIXING
PROCESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. CHANCE
OF RAIN/MVFR ON SUN AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. VFR MON AND
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
TO YIELD SW DIRECTION VEERING TO WSW-W LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS TO FURTHER VEER TO NW AFTER THE CFP THAT
OCCURS DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR TIMING OF THIS CFP AND LEAN TOWARD ITS ASSOCIATED WIND
OUTPUT. THE SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN IN
RESPONSE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT.
WILL BE LOOKING AT 15-20 KT SPEEDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AFTER THE CFP LATE THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR A CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG OVERNIGHT PLUS THE
ADDITION OF A CAA SURGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF 30 KT AT THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES THAT BUILD TO 3 TO 6
FT THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. A FEW 7 FOOTERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS COVERING THE SHALLOW BATHYMETRY OF FRYING PAN
SHOALS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AROUND 5 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AGITATED POST-FRONTAL FLOW TO START THE PERIOD
WILL BE ABATING SO QUICKLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED BEFORE ITS ACTUAL EXPIRATION TIME. NW FLOW QUICKLY SETTING
TO JUST 10 TO 15 KT. AS THE HIGH DRAWS NEARER ON SATURDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A FURTHER DROP IN WIND SPEED AND A SLIGHT VEER IN
DIRECTION. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SEAS DROP
TO JUST 2 FT IN HEIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES WELL EASTWARD FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO AROUND 5 KTS. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT GENERALLY
1 TO 3 FTERS...WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FTERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR EDITS WERE MADE WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
STRATUS CONTINUES TO TREND SCT-BKN ACROSS MY EASTERN COUNTIES.
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO MY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST TONIGHT...SO THIS AREA WILL NOT TREND MOSTLY
CLEAR UNTIL 15-18Z THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AS OF 0345 UTC...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS
JUST CLEARED HIGHWAY 83. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OF THE BACK EDGE AS ADDITIONAL STRATUS ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE...AS WINDS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALSO...FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE 20-22 UTC
RAP AND SATELLITE...HELD STRATUS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...ALSO
BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL MOSTLY WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...MVFR-IFR
CLOUDS REMAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM SHERWOOD AND
BOTTINEAU SOUTHEAST THROUGH RUGBY AND HARVEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID DEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
03 UTC. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID
GET A REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM ROLLA THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN STRONG
SUBSIDENT FLOW. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. DID SEE A GUST TO 53 MPH AT GLEN ULLIN THIS
PAST HOUR. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM CST BUT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CENTRAL/5 MOUNTAIN. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER
WISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO A COLDER REGIME SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING LAKE WINNIPEG BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...AND ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY NOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS
AT 45 KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH 35 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 45 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON
BAY LOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE...WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY FROM THE 30S AND 40S...TO HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS DRY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KJMS AND KMOT
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ALL BUT ENDED...AND SWITCHED THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN FA TO JUST FLURRIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
HOLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (AND KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOUDY...PLUS THERE ARE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANYWAY). MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BEGIN ERODING FROM THE
WEST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING SECOND WAVE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF
FARGO..OUT OF THE AREA AND THE END OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. OVERALL THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN DECENT TODAY UNTIL 18Z AND 19Z
RUNS...WHICH KEPT HIGH POPS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOO LONG.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PULL THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER THE AREA INCREASES. A VORT
MAX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS HELPING GENERATE THE SECOND
WAVE OF PRECIP IN E CNTRL ND...WHICH CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER
BASICALLY THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BENSON
COUNTY ND TO WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY MN WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AROUND WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ELEVATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFT 03Z IN
EASTERN ND AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z...THUS EXPECT
PRECIP TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WINDS/MIXING SHOULD BE LIGHT...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
RATHER COOL...IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CNTRL
DAKOTAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS LIGHT MIXING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER WILL SPREAD PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INDICATING DRIZZLE
AS H700 LEVEL IS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER BY 15Z PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MODEST
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER AN EARLY HIGH AROUND 50. COOLER AIR
PULLED DOWN FROM CANADA MAY HELP TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...WINDS/MIXING DECREASE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...BRING DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA ARE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST
THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR SAGS AND HOW FAST. FOR SATURDAY THE INITIAL
BLAST WILL ONLY GRAZE OUR AREA...WITH 140KT TO 15KT 250MB JET OVER
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
FOR SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH...AS WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT. MODELS BREAK
OUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NORTH OF THIS ZONE. BASED ON 925MB
- 850 THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS LIGHT RAIN IS BEST BET.
FOR MONDAY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
LOWERING THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ON TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE...SIMILARLY PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF /
GFS/DGEX/GEM-NH...DROPS ACROSS THE CWFA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROP
TO 510DAM OR LOWER. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...925 TEMPS AROUND -10C
AND ARCTIC SCUD SUSPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR 0F QUITE POSSIBLE.
CALMER...DRIER AND UNSEASONALLY COLD WEATHER ENDS THIS PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE
INDICATES BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL MOSTLY VFR. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW
FAR SOUTH/WEST THESE CIGS WILL MAKE IT...AND USED THE RAP/HRRR FOR
GUIDANCE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING GRAND RAPIDS MI WITH HEIGHT FALLS
CENTERED OVER OHIO AND PA. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NE OHIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WITH
RAIN A CERTAINTY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS MID MORNING
UPDATE. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE
WHERE CAPES FORECAST TO GET TO 250-400 J/KG. HOWEVER DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST AS BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT TEMPS
ACTUALLY DO GET CLOSE TO 50 AND NOT HOVER THE IN MID/UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. WILL BE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...IN FACT ALL PRECIP BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING UNLESS THE
PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING ISSUES ON
ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
MOISTURE PULLS OUT QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN
INCH. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. BUT THE 850MB RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT CUTTING
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVED OVER THE NE. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LUCKILY ALL PRECIP
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...IN THE MEANTIME
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON GOING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN
THE SNOW BELT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW BUT WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY
AS A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AND THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY NOON.
GOING WITH DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS WE
WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS ARE WHICH MODELS TO GO WITH AND DO WE NEED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE A LOW UP THROUGH MICHIGAN AND THEN DRY A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THUS LEAVING THE AREA WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME
LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT TRIED TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY THE
THREAT LOOKS GOOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DIDN`T GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY ON THE POPS YET BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. AS THE
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTRODUCED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE GFS SO KEPT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE
GFS IS FAIRLY MOIST WHILE THE OTHERS ARE NOT. KEPT IT AT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH NE OH AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN MORE SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL
HAD FORECASTED THIS. FOR THE AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY
MVFR VISIBILITIES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME BRIEF 2SM IN RAIN
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS TO THE EAST COAST. ANY THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE WITH FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND REACH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND THEN START INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AND IT WILL ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS AND THEN THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINDS COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AND THAT WILL CAUSE SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEYOND 3 MILES FROM SHORE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INSTEAD OF MOVING IT
THROUGH MICHIGAN. NONE THE LEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE THREAT WILL
LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
712 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CHANGES TO ORIGINAL FORECAST. TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN AND TEMPS
SLIGHTLY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HEIGHT FALLS
CENTERED OVER OHIO. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW INTO
SE LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z THEN ACROSS NE OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
TRACKS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE WHERE CAPES FORECAST TO GET TO 250-400
J/KG. HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST AS BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. WILL BE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...IN FACT ALL PRECIP BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING UNLESS THE
PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING ISSUES ON
ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
MOISTURE PULLS OUT QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN
INCH. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. BUT THE 850MB RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT CUTTING
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVED OVER THE NE. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LUCKILY ALL PRECIP
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...IN THE MEANTIME
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON GOING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN
THE SNOW BELT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW BUT WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY
AS A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AND THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY NOON.
GOING WITH DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS WE
WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS ARE WHICH MODELS TO GO WITH AND DO WE NEED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE A LOW UP THROUGH MICHIGAN AND THEN DRY A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THUS LEAVING THE AREA WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME
LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT TRIED TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY THE
THREAT LOOKS GOOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DIDN`T GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY ON THE POPS YET BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. AS THE
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTRODUCED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE GFS SO KEPT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE
GFS IS FAIRLY MOIST WHILE THE OTHERS ARE NOT. KEPT IT AT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH NE OH AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN MORE SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL
HAD FORECASTED THIS. FOR THE AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY
MVFR VISIBILITIES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME BRIEF 2SM IN RAIN
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS TO THE EAST COAST. ANY THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE WITH FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND REACH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND THEN START INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AND IT WILL ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS AND THEN THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINDS COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AND THAT WILL CAUSE SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEYOND 3 MILES FROM SHORE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INSTEAD OF MOVING IT
THROUGH MICHIGAN. NONE THE LEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE THREAT WILL
LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1127 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT PULLING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED COLUMBUS SO BUMPED UP POPS A TAD ACROSS
SERN FORECAST AREA. DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS NW OH A FEW DEGREES AS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR NOW AND DEW POINTS ALREADY IN MID 30S.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE SE HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL BE IMPROVING MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LIFT AND PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. WILL
PULL THE THREAT FOR SHRA A LITTLE FURTHER NW BASED ON 12Z MODEL
RUNS. THE NW AND AROUND ERI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY
TONIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE NW...THE INCREASING COMBINATION OF FACTORS
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK. GFS/MAV LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST RUC RUN SO WILL UNDERCUT MAV POPS SOME.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SEE NO
REASON WHY WIDESPREAD RAIN WON`T OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA THU INTO THU
NIGHT. INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL BY THU SO COULD BE SOME THUNDER
FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH THU NIGHT FOR ENOUGH WET
SNOW TO OCCUR TO LEAD TO A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
AREAS. LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING
UNLESS THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRI SO WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN
THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT WELL INTO FRI NIGHT SO SOME LIGHT SHSN
MAY LINGER BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP THREAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER ON
SAT. THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER FRI NIGHT SO SOME
CONCERN THAT FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR.
BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT LATER
ON SAT SO THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF AT LEAST SCT SHRA WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT SEEING
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGEOVER TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAT
NIGHT. MAYBE SOME ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE WORST THAT
COULD HAPPEN.
EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...TEMPS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY CAN
REBOUND ENOUGH TO EVEN GET BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES EAST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY MORE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OTHER AREAS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH STILL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE NOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO
MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST TOWARD MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
IN. FOR THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INVOF LAKE MI OVERNIGHT
AND MOVES INTO/ACROSS NRN OHIO THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THERE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND IFR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROF NOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD WITH
UNSETTLED WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOT GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THEN YET
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1053 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS. STRATUS CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...BUT
THE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOP OF IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
LATE THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT
LKS. FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
KBFD...WHERE BOTH RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS BTWN 07Z-11Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU
NORTHWEST PA.
ALL MDL DATA SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
SATURDAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVR THE
W MTNS LATE SAT EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE W MTNS.
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
930 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS. STRATUS CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...BUT
THE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND WIND EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT LKS. AT 23Z...MVFR
CONDS FROM EITHER CIGS OR -SHSN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM KJST/KAOO
NORTHWARD TO KBFD. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA
BOTH SUPPORT A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 00Z-02Z.
FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE KBFD...WHERE
BOTH RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF REDUCED CIGS BTWN 06Z-10Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU NORTHWEST
PA.
ALL MDL DATA SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
SATURDAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVR THE
W MTNS LATE SAT EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE W MTNS.
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
641 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WELL UNDERWAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT 19Z. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE N AND W.
HRRR AND RAP PLAY A VERY QUICK DEMISE TO THE LLVL INSTABILITY AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY OF THE REMAIN HIGH-BASED SHSN TO ONLY
FLURRIES FOR THE FAR W AND FAR W BY SUNSET. LAST BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE CURRENTLY PINGING CAMBRIA AND CLEARFIELD
COS....WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT DIES. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT AND MANY PLACE WILL BE CLEAR EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO BE ABLE
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. THE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND MINOR RIDGE MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND WIND EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT LKS. AT 23Z...MVFR
CONDS FROM EITHER CIGS OR -SHSN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM KJST/KAOO
NORTHWARD TO KBFD. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA
BOTH SUPPORT A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 00Z-02Z.
FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE KBFD...WHERE
BOTH RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF REDUCED CIGS BTWN 06Z-10Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU NORTHWEST
PA.
ALL MDL DATA SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
SATURDAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVR THE
W MTNS LATE SAT EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE W MTNS.
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
818 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL REFORM OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CREATE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ANOTHER BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
THE WIDE SHIELD OF RAIN HAS MOVED RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WITH
A LARGE BREAK/DRY SLOT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. THUS
FAR...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PRETTY STUBBORN AND PRODUCING SOME DZ
THERE...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE OVC THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. SHOWERY
PRECIP ALREADY ON THE REGIONAL RADAR OVER WRN PA AND OH. FOR
NOW...LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT VERY
HIGH...AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...UPPER LVL WINDS
QUITE STRONG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE LOW TO QUICKLY REFORM OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING GIVEN
VERY STRONG DYNMAICS IN PLACE. THE AIRASS IN PLACE IS QUITE DRY
AT LOW LEVELS...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MAIN STORM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR LAKE SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND
SHOULD KEEP THE PROFILES WARM ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO MELT SNOW
BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN
WESTERN COS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH IN THE
MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN TO MAINLY RAIN
CONCURRENTLY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FCST.
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING
THE STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL
LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT
REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE
SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE MODERATE RAIN AREA...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONAL ELSEWHERE.
WEAKNESS IN RAIN SHIELD ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE HRRR SHOWING MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING TO PIVOT NORTH OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN ITS WAKE...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP AS CORE OF UPPER TROF ROTATES OVER THE
AREA.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FLYING CONDITIONS IS THAT AN EXPECTED GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SOME VFR
CONDITIONS...WHILE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AIRFIELDS WILL ONLY
STRUGGLE TO REACH MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL AT
TIMES BE RESTRICTED IN SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO THE EAST...BUT CAA WILL
GENERATE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IFR IN NUMEROUS SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT NIGHT...SHRA DEVELOPING FROM TO EAST WITH CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
644 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL REFORM OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME BY MONDAY...BUT A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A STEADY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AS A STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST. DEWPOINTS NOT VERY
HIGH...AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...UPPER LVL WINDS QUITE STRONG...SO SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE LOW TO QUICKLY REFORM OFF THE COAST LATE TODAY...GIVEN
VERY STRONG DYNMAICS IN PLACE.
SPC HAS NOTHING IN OUR AREA...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. THE
AIRASS IN PLACE IS QUITE DRY AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FCST.
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING
THE STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL
LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT
REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE
SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE MODERATE RAIN AREA...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONAL ELSEWHERE.
WEAKNESS IN RAIN SHIELD ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE HRRR SHOWING MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING TO PIVOT NORTH OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN ITS WAKE...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP AS CORE OF UPPER TROF ROTATES OVER THE
AREA.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FLYING CONDITIONS IS THAT AN EXPECTED GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SOME VFR
CONDITIONS...WHILE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AIRFIELDS WILL ONLY
STRUGGLE TO REACH MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL AT
TIMES BE RESTRICTED IN SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO THE EAST...BUT CAA WILL
GENERATE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IFR IN NUMEROUS SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT NIGHT...SHRA DEVELOPING FROM TO EAST WITH CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
545 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE WIND HEADLINES THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL MB WITH MAIN COOL FRONT
ABOUT READY TO EXIT CWA AS IT THRUSTS INTO WESTERN NE. PEAK
MIXING/ISALLOBARIC FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST HIGHEST WINDS ARE
ABOUT DONE. 18Z NAM/20Z RAP SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL TAKE A
CLOSE LOOK AT 300PM OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DETERMINATION ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING...CERTAINLY
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE IF WARNING IS DROPPED.
LAST BATCH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HITTING THE HILLS
WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY CREATE BREEZY SPOTS ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE MILD
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...STILL LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST COULD INCREASE AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP...AND SO THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SECONDARY WAVE/UPPER LOW STILL PLANS ON BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. WITH
SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS...POSSIBLY MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST...AND NOW ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 539 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.
LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS WITH THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
543 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL MB WITH MAIN COOL FRONT
ABOUT READY TO EXIT CWA AS IT THRUSTS INTO WESTERN NE. PEAK
MIXING/ISALLOBARIC FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST HIGHEST WINDS ARE
ABOUT DONE. 18Z NAM/20Z RAP SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL TAKE A
CLOSE LOOK AT 300PM OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DETERMINATION ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING...CERTAINLY
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE IF WARNING IS DROPPED.
LAST BATCH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HITTING THE HILLS
WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY CREATE BREEZY SPOTS ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE MILD
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...STILL LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST COULD INCREASE AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP...AND SO THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SECONDARY WAVE/UPPER LOW STILL PLANS ON BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. WITH
SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS...POSSIBLY MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST...AND NOW ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 539 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.
LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS WITH THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
538 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGUY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH KDHT AND
KAMA AROUND 01Z AND 03Z SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH NORTH
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT BE NOTICEABLY GUSTY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTINESS TO
INCREASE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS
BEING 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NO CLOUDS OTHER THAN MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL ARE EXPECTED. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT OBS SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO MAKING THE WIND FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AS FAR NORTH AS
GUYMON EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOW WELL INTO THE 70S. A SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO WILL IMPINGE ON THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THESE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT FORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
BRB
LONG TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...AND A
STRONG SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
FAIRLY STABLE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN 1040-1050MB WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL ANCHOR THE COLDER AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWA COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. IF THE HARD FREEZE DOESN/T OCCUR
TUESDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND MID 20S
ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...AND WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...IT COULD BE THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME THE
SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHETHER IT WILL BE ALL
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR IF IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL...SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
CE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 40 60 40 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 39 61 38 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 35 59 38 73 42 / 5 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 42 62 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 39 62 38 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 39 60 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 41 62 39 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 37 60 36 74 38 / 5 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 38 61 38 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 38 61 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 43 61 39 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 41 60 40 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 44 62 39 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 44 64 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1144 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DRYING OCCURS LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING IN THE MID LEVELS. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
INTERMITTENT (IF NOT ABSENT) AT KALI AND KCRP AFTER 06/00Z AND
BEFORE 06Z...WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END AT KVCT BY THEN. KLRD A
BIT MORE TRICKY (WITH RESPECT TO RAIN)...AS IMPACTS OF UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH. DECIDED TO GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AT KLRD THROUGH THE
24 HOUR PERIOD...BUT CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THERE
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...AS ISENTROPIC PATTERN GETS
GOING...CIGS COULD LINGER AROUND MVFR/VFR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AT KVCT...AM EXPECTING VFR (MAYBE SHORT-TERM IFR IN RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON) WITH INCREASING CIGS. THE OTHER TWO TERMINALS ARE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM EXPECTING RAIN TO GENERALLY END BY 06/00Z BUT THEN
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST UPPER TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 310K
DEVELOP RAIN COULD RETURN BEFORE 06Z. HOWEVER...WITH UPGLIDE NOT
STRONG AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...AM EXPECTING VFR CIGS AND ONLY
-RA IF NOT SPRINKLES. STILL...DID GO WITH LIGHT RAIN BY 12Z KALI
AND KCRP. LASTLY...WINDS GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DID ADD
SOME WIND GUSTS TONIGHT KCRP SINCE WINDS COMING OFF THE BAY AND
GRADIENT INCREASING. ENOUGH SAID.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL
CONTINUES OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT
DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NORTHWEST WHERE ECHOES
ARE NOT AS STRONG HAVE REPORTING SITES STILL GETTING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. THUS...DID NOT LOWER POPS OUT WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND DID INCREASE THEM OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS
FOR REST OF MORNING AND INTO MID AFTERNOON (KEPT RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME AFTER THAT). DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A NOTCH NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF HIGHS (MAY NOT GET THERE
TIL LATE). REMAINDER OF TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN FIRST AND SECOND
PERIODS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OTHER CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW.
MARINE...SCEC TO NEAR SCA AT TIMES FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATION GRIDS (WHICH ARE LIMITED OFFSHORE AND THUS
ARE USING INTERPOLATION SCHEME) SEEM TO BE TOO HIGH (BASED ON
TCOON SITES). SO...HAVE MAINTAIN OR JUST GONE WITH SCEC FOR THE
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SCA FOR TONIGHT...WILL LOOK AT
NEW DATA AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON THAT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE 12Z TAFS. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 100 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 90 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 100 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 100 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 65 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 72 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MENTION -RA AT KDRT AND KSSF WHERE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY BUT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THESE TWO SITES ARE ALSO JUMPING IN AND
OUT OF HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS TO VFR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR AND RUC OUTPUTS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ALSO...12Z DRT
SOUNDING SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS DRYING AS WELL AS THE WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESSES TAKE PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL OPEN WAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH AND DRY THINGS OUT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUDS LINGER AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SOILS REMAIN COOL DUE TO RECENT RAINS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TRAVERSES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BACK DOOR DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WON`T LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RAPIDLY
RETURNS BY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. THIS IS THE COOLEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS
SEASON. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WED...THU AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONLY TO
CLIMB TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS AND NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 67 52 69 44 / - 10 10 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 67 49 68 41 / - 10 10 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 67 50 70 43 / 10 20 20 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 66 49 68 40 / - - 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 62 49 72 46 / 40 30 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 66 50 68 41 / - - 10 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 50 61 47 70 41 / 20 30 20 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 67 50 69 42 / 10 10 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 68 51 68 43 / - 10 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 52 65 51 70 44 / 10 30 20 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 65 51 70 45 / 10 30 20 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1007 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL
CONTINUES OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT
DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NORTHWEST WHERE ECHOES
ARE NOT AS STRONG HAVE REPORTING SITES STILL GETTING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. THUS...DID NOT LOWER POPS OUT WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND DID INCREASE THEM OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS
FOR REST OF MORNING AND INTO MID AFTERNOON (KEPT RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME AFTER THAT). DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A NOTCH NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF HIGHS (MAY NOT GET THERE
TIL LATE). REMAINDER OF TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN FIRST AND SECOND
PERIODS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OTHER CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC TO NEAR SCA AT TIMES FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATION GRIDS (WHICH ARE LIMITED OFFSHORE AND THUS
ARE USING INTERPOLATION SCHEME) SEEM TO BE TOO HIGH (BASED ON
TCOON SITES). SO...HAVE MAINTAIN OR JUST GONE WITH SCEC FOR THE
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SCA FOR TONIGHT...WILL LOOK AT
NEW DATA AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON THAT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE 12Z TAFS. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 100 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 90 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 100 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 100 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 65 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 72 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR AND RUC OUTPUTS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ALSO...12Z DRT
SOUNDING SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS DRYING AS WELL AS THE WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z FOR MOST
AREAS...LEADING TO REINFORCED IFR AND MVFR CIGS FOR THE I-35
TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
THE NORTH...AND STEADY N WINDS SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENTS TO BKN
VFR CIGS OVER ALL TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE BKN VFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH TIME-HEIGHT
FORECASTS SUGGESTING CIGS OF 7000-10000 FT FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF
THE TAF PERIODS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESSES TAKE PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL OPEN WAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH AND DRY THINGS OUT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUDS LINGER AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SOILS REMAIN COOL DUE TO RECENT RAINS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TRAVERSES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BACK DOOR DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WON`T LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RAPIDLY
RETURNS BY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. THIS IS THE COOLEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS
SEASON. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WED...THU AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONLY TO
CLIMB TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS AND NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 50 67 52 69 / 20 - 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 47 67 49 68 / 20 - 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 67 50 70 / 30 10 20 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 47 66 49 68 / 10 - - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 53 62 49 72 / 40 40 30 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 47 66 50 68 / 20 - - 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 50 61 47 70 / 30 20 30 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 49 67 50 69 / 30 10 10 20 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 50 68 51 68 / 30 - 10 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 52 65 51 70 / 30 10 30 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 53 65 51 70 / 30 10 30 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
543 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE 12Z TAFS. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 80 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 80 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 90 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 90 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 63 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 71 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 80 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 80 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 90 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 90 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 63 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 71 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1027 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO LONG ISLAND TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO THE EAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST THURSDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE THESE SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAVE ALLOWED CLOUD COVER TO
SCATTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EAST BECAUSE OF THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WIND FLOW...BUT WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS THIS EVENING AS HIGH LEVELS
OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB BANK UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE FROM 00Z/7PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 12Z/7PM FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWED UP TO A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY INTERSECT HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAXIMUM GUSTS JUST BELOW 40S KNOTS.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR MAV VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL WITHIN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH 850 MB WINDS AROUND 35-40
KTS WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SAME NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SUBSIDENCE WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LIMITED IF ANY CLOUD COVER. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES..THE 850
MB FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND BACKS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. ALSO...DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL
BE TREND TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST...AND ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES...WHILE LOWER BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT
WILL BE MODERATED A BIT IN THE EAST BY THE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT A MIX OF 50S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WITH THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH RIDGE TOP GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED WITH
WEAKER GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WEST AS THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...AND 850 MB
FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK SOUTHWEST. NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 30S THE NORM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO SOME UPSLOPE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CARRY DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE
WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUAL WARMING UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUES PM/WEDS AM...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLING
WEDS WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FRONTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EAST COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY. LOW-MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING WARMING...UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF TO MAINE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS IN THE WESTERN
AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C...COOL TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING RAPIDLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. 11Z/6AM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A STRIPE OF IFR CEILINGS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. RADAR SHOWED BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOWED A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z/1PM AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 00Z/7PM...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOP LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ADVANCE ALL THE WAY EAST TO KBCB TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE REGION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KBLF AND KLWB WILL HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SE WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY...AND
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BRIEF RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY WHEN IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH FROM THE
NW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
711 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO LONG ISLAND TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO THE EAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY APPROACHING UPPER
TROF HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. DRY SLOT AROUND
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST BY 18Z/1PM
AND EAST BY 00Z/7PM. THIS IS CONSERVATIVE TIMING. THE 00Z LOCAL WRF
SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE OUT OF THE EAST BY 20Z/3PM.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EAST BUT FILL BACK IN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS THIS
EVENING AS HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE FROM 00Z/7PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 12Z/7PM FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWED UP TO A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY INTERSECT HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAXIMUM GUSTS JUST BELOW 40S KNOTS.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR MAV VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL WITHIN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH 850 MB WINDS AROUND 35-40
KTS WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SAME NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SUBSIDENCE WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LIMITED IF ANY CLOUD COVER. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES..THE 850
MB FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND BACKS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. ALSO...DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL
BE TREND TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST...AND ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES...WHILE LOWER BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT
WILL BE MODERATED A BIT IN THE EAST BY THE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT A MIX OF 50S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WITH THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH RIDGE TOP GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED WITH
WEAKER GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WEST AS THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...AND 850 MB
FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK SOUTHWEST. NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 30S THE NORM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO SOME UPSLOPE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CARRY DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE
WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUAL WARMING UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUES PM/WEDS AM...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLING
WEDS WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FRONTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EAST COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY. LOW-MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING WARMING...UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF TO MAINE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS IN THE WESTERN
AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C...COOL TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING RAPIDLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. 11Z/6AM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A STRIPE OF IFR CEILINGS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. RADAR SHOWED BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOWED A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z/1PM AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 00Z/7PM...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOP LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ADVANCE ALL THE WAY EAST TO KBCB TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE REGION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KBLF AND KLWB WILL HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
...BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SE WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY...AND
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BRIEF RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY WHEN IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH FROM THE
NW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1009 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL
PUSH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NW OREGON AND SW WA THIS MORNING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER...THOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OF WIND AND PRESSURE...LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN AHEAD OF IT AND A SECONDARY CONVECTIVE BAND
OF RAIN AND WINDS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING TO COME ONSHORE
NORTHERN OREGON. ALTHOUGH THE ECM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WINDS WERE NOT AS HIGH ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND
THOUGHT SO HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE
OF RAIN BUT TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE GLOOMY AND WET ACROSS THE BOARD.
BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...IT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS SW WA AND NW OR. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN LAST
EVENING...BUT THE RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE NORTH AT THIS POINT
OVER N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE DENSEST FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE EXTENT WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FOG IS
PATCHIER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA.
THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 48N 128W IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ONSHORE THIS MORNING...BRINGING A BURST OF STRONG
WINDS AND RAIN. DUE TO THE RELATIVE LACK OF OFFSHORE
OBSERVATIONS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW WELL THE FCST
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE
DOING A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE LOW TRACK. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR S WA COAST THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WINDS COMING THROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 6 AM TO
9 AM. EXPECT THIS WILL BE A LOW END HIGH WIND EVENT...WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AT 55 TO 60 MPH FROM AROUND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT NORTH
ALONG THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE INTERIOR
VALLEY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH. A
FAIRLY SHORT BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAIN TO START ALONG THE COAST
AROUND 6 AM BEFORE PUSHING INLAND LATER IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE INTO THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THEN FRI
AND SAT LOOK TO BE DRY. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THERE WILL
BE EXTENSIVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR LOWLANDS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW MODELED TO DEVELOP FRI AND SAT MAY HELP TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...SO FRI AND SAT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE FAIRLY NICE
DAYS. PYLE
.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE
BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MODELS ARE TRYING TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE TOP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS HOLDING ON
TO THE RIDGE LONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS...KEEPING ANY PRECIP FURTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS SOME RAIN CLIPPING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE ECMWF DRYING UP THE AREA EVEN
MORE...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL OREGON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...THEN THE 12Z ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK
SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR PRECIP.
MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE DRIER
NIGHTS...SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS. /27
&&
.AVIATION...PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND HAS NEARLY CROSSED I-5 AT THIS
HOUR WITH CIGS STILL REMAINING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR. A SECONDARY
BAND HAS DEVELOPED AND IS CROSSING THE NORTH OREGON COAST AT THIS
TIME AND HAS DEVELOPED A VERY NARROW BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 34 KT AT KHQM. LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS
INLAND BUT HAVE DOUBTS IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG DUE TO TERRAIN
BREAKING UP THE ORGANIZATION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT FEEL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
WITH CIGS AROUND 025 TO 035. FEEL SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AS WINDS ALSO EASE. THIS WILL ALLOW VARYING AMOUNTS
OF MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HIGH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOG
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KEUG AND KHIO BUT HAVE LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR KPDX KTTD AND KSLE. WINDS GENERALLY STAY LIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL A SLOW LIFTING OF FOG EXPECTED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS BUT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AND
LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LESS OF AN ISSUE. DO
EXPECT SOME SPEED SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ABOUT
A 50/50 SHOT AT SEEING FOG OR AN IFR CIG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING
SO...IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST CLOSE TO 18Z. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...A 995 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE
WATERS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCA
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND SEAS ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT FOR MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE LATEST FCST
MODEL RUNS ARE SPEEDING UP WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT MAY IMPACT THE WATERS BY SUN. /AHROCKSHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
9 AM PST FRIDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
933 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system moves through the region today, resulting
in another round of rain with windy afternoon and evening
conditions. Drier weather returns Friday and Saturday. Sunday
into early Monday the next system passes, bringing another round
of showers. Colder air enters next week, bringing temperatures
back closer to or even a bit below seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Increased pops for the earlier portion of the forecast with a
morning update based on current radar and HRRR prog for the
morning showing. Wind advisory remains in place for this afternoon
for may areas associated with the back edge of a frontal zone
passage./Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A series of frontal zones tied into a larger low
pressure area that moves generally to the northeast will keep the
aviation area cluttered with rain showers of varying light to
moderate intensity for the most part for much of the day. A better
defined cold frontal feature will pass through in the afternoon
and allow for more windy/gusty conditions...wind gusts to 45kts
are possible between 21z-02Z. All frontal features move
east/northeast and away from the aviation area which is followed
by higher pressure moving in very late overnight and early Friday
Morning. That high pressure late overnight and Friday morning allows
for decreased wind and clearer skies. Such a scenario more often
than not allows for late night and morning fog and low clouds to
form in the wettest and more sheltered areas but the late end to
the wind may keep this from occurring. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 58 38 50 34 52 41 / 70 20 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 58 39 49 34 53 40 / 80 60 10 0 0 10
Pullman 62 40 51 34 56 42 / 60 20 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 44 56 36 59 46 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 56 40 52 34 50 39 / 80 40 10 0 0 10
Sandpoint 54 39 50 34 51 37 / 90 70 10 0 0 20
Kellogg 56 40 48 34 51 39 / 70 70 10 0 0 10
Moses Lake 62 39 55 34 54 41 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 60 41 55 40 55 43 / 40 10 0 0 0 10
Omak 55 37 54 34 52 37 / 60 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for Coeur
d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Wind Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE HEADING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES.
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG OMEGA ABOVE 600 MB...THEY ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB ALONG
INTERSTATE 90. CONSIDERING THE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE 850 MB BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO A HALF INCH/ IN TAYLOR COUNTY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH GENERATES. SOUNDINGS SHOWS
SATURATION ABOVE 750 MB WITH DRY AIR BELOW. DUE TO THIS...IT IS
VERY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER WE WILL GET ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND THEN THIS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A TIGHT
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
THEIR LOCATION OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. WITH THIS LOCATION...THE WEAK TO MODERATE 925 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ITS SNOW TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES. WHILE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...THE ECMWF HAS NOT
BEEN. WHILE IT HAS BEEN SHIFTING THIS BAND NORTH AND SOUTH QUITE
A BIT...IT IS STILL AFFECTING SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
ITS 06.00Z RUN...IT WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT ITS 06.12Z
IS MUCH CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN IS THAT THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA. TOTAL SNOW FROM THE LATEST RUN HAS A 6 TO 9 INCH BAND ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE THE GFS...THE GEM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH IT TRACK NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
/ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ AND THAT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION TO
PUT OUT THIS HEADLINE IS NOT. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOMALOUS COLD 850 MB AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -12 AND -16C AND THE GFS IS RUNNING BETWEEN
-10 TO -14C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT COULD
HANG ON AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SO TRENDED TAFS AS SUCH.
RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS/ALTOCUMULUS FRIDAY
MORNING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH
WINDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING. AREA OF HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING
EAST FROM LWR LAKE MI/NE IL. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGD TO SC WI
BY AROUND 12Z WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME EVOLVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. CLEARING LINE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
WI...WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FILLING IN BEHIND THIS AREA THOUGH
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL APPEARANCE. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SCOURING BETWEEN 07 AND 09Z WHILE PURE EXTRAP OF THE PRIMARY BACK EDGE
SUGGESTS 00-03Z FOR SOME CLEARING. WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN THE WAKE
OF THE MAIN BACK EDGE WILL NOT MODIFY THE EVENTUAL LOW TEMPS
...ESPECIALLY WITH RIDGE AXIS/LIGHT WIND REGIME TAKING SHAPE LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR A TIME THEN
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MINNESOTA TOWARDS END OF DAY. 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND HELP TO INCREASE MID DECK
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO GO WITH SOME POPS IN
PARTS OF THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO WISCONSIN. INITIALLY THE STRONG 250 MB JET IS BEHIND THE
TROUGH BUT GRADUALLY INCREASES UPSTREAM SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION SATURDAY. 850/700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. BY THE TIME LOW LEVEL
COOLING TAKES PLACE THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY AND THE FORCING
WEAKENS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A STRONG 150 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST GET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WEAKENS A LITTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITH WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY.
GRADUAL 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 CELSIUS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN...LOW
LEVELS ARE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY LEVELS
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS HAS SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRY.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS BRING A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY. THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE GFS. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW. THE 12Z ECMWF
PUSHES THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MORE TO THE NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDING TO MORE RAIN FAR SOUTH.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CANADA.
THE 12Z GFS HAS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ON THE 00Z
ECMWF. TEMPERATURES/THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD NORTH
FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES.
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES WITH HIGHER PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING EAST. MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT THOUGH PLENTY OF HOLES
UPSTREAM IN NW WI. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR AND START TO BREAK UP A
BIT TONIGHT AS NVA AND DRIER AIR TAKE HOLD. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO MN BY THE END OF FRIDAY. NAM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WAA REGIME PRECIP. WILL
KEEP KMSN DRY THROUGH 18Z AND KMKE DRY THROUGH 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER
EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF 850 WAA.
&&
.MARINE...GALE GUSTS HAVE EASED BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THOUGH
WAVE ACTION MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER SO EASE SO WENT WITH SMALL CRAFT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE RAP HAS
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS
EVENING AND THEN THIS RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PAINTING A BROAD AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE ARW AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THAT
THE SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. FOR COLLABORATION REASONS...STAYED WITH THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT A BIT CONCERNED THAT THEY MAY BE TOO
HIGH FOR THESE TWO AREAS. MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE
THERE IS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...850 MB QG CONVERGENCE...WEAK
850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED. WET BULB ZEROS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUNDINGS WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR
THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29 MAY BE UP TO AN
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DPROG/DT SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHIFTED THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE COBB DATA FOR KAUW SUGGESTS BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH IN THE NAM AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GFS. MEANWHILE
IN KEAU...THERE IS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EITHER MODEL.
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 05.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A VERY
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE 05.12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GEM HAS NEARLY 0.75 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB AIR
SPILLS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
NAEFS STANDARDIZED 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF ARE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN -12 AND -16C. MEANWHILE THE GFS
HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED
SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND IT
STILL BEING ON DAY 6 AND 7...JUST STAYED WITH THE SUPER BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED KLSE/KRST AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER ACROSS
NORTHERN WI/EAST-CENTRAL MN AND WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06.15Z. CAN EXPECT PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE IN LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR MIST. THINK ANY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY
NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cooler temperatures today as surface front moved through the region
bring modest cold air advection. Upper flow has veered and 1000-500MB
thickness values will drop from yesterday as gusty northwest surface
winds usher in cooler air.
Some stratus is showing up in satellite and surface
observations...both the RUC and NAM show this well at 925MB. These
clouds will continue moving into the area from Iowa and mainly affect
the northern half of the CWA through around noon when drier air moves
into the area.
Late this afternoon towards sunset...the surface high slides
southeast over the area and the gradient will diminish. After around
00Z the winds will swing around to the southwest and keep the low
temperatures into the lower 40s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
The warm air advection on the back side of the surface high pressure
will increase on Sunday...bring temperatures back into the 60s for
Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will continue for the start of the
workweek before the well-advertised cold air pushes down from Canada
late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Models agree that the coldest air of the season will overspread the
region by Veteran`s Day morning...making any outdoor ceremonies very
cold. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the area...but a
very quick glance at the ECMWF 00Z run is a little more agressive
with precipitation into Tuesday morning. It does hold the coldest air
back into Iowa and Nebraska until well after the precipitation moves
well east...suggesting little in the way of frozen precipitation as
the front moves through. Will keep the best chance north of the river
and the mixed wording for now.
After the cold air settles over the region...there will be little in
the way of warming up for the remainder of the week. Highs will be
well below normal...20 to 30 degrees F below normal...including
temperatures in the teens on Thursday night into Friday along and
north of Highway 36.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Cold front is currently moving through the terminals with winds
veering around to the NW with sustained winds of 15-20...gusting 25-30kt
behind the front. Winds will continue to remain gusty through early
tomorrow afternoon before decreasing and becoming light tomorrow
night as high pressure settles into the region. Mid to upper level
cloud deck will remain tied to the front and will quickly work out of
the area. Current upstream obs reveal that the main 3Kft deck may slide
east of the terminals with just a few to sct developing near the
terminals. The HRRR model also hints at this...thus have kept sct
3-4Kft deck in for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2014
Cold front about to move into forecast area. Should move through
KUIN by 07z, KCOU by 08z and metro area tafs between 11z-12z
Saturday. Mid and high clouds moving in as well ahead of front.
Some mvfr cigs behind frontal boundary, but feel that they will
remain north of taf sites. Still feel cigs will lower, but remain
low end vfr. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to veer to the
northwest with frontal passage and become gusty by mid morning.
Cigs will scatter out around that time as well. Then winds to
diminish and begin to back to the west towards sunset.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front about to move into forecast area. Should move through
metro area tafs between 11z-12z Saturday. Mid and high clouds
moving in as well ahead of front. Some mvfr cigs behind frontal
boundary, but feel that they will remain north of metro area and
that any light precipitation will remain north as well. Still feel
cigs will lower, but remain low end vfr. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds to veer to the northwest with frontal passage and
become gusty by 16z. Cigs will scatter out around that
time as well. Then winds to diminish and begin to back to the west
towards sunset.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Visible satellite imagery showing clouds advancing southeast towards
our region this afternoon as next upper shortwave and weak front
approach. Fortunately...this feature will pass during the overnight
hrs will little fanfare as boundary has very little moisture to work
with. The most notable impact expected at this venture will be
noticeably cooler temperatures tomorrow as cold air advection
through the day will only allow highs to warm into the middle 40s to
lower 50s at best. Additionally...a fair tight pressure gradient will
result in a brisk day as northerly winds gust as high as 25 mph
during the late morning and afternoon.
High pressure to begin sliding east Saturday night which should allow
the reestablishment of southerly flow as leeside troughing developing
across the Front Range. As a result...Sunday should yield slightly
warmer temps /upper 50s and lower 60s/ with continued dry conditions
across the area. Beyond this...warm air advection continues to increase
heading into Monday as strong Pacific storm system dives out of the
northern Rockies. As this occurs...expect southerly flow to only
intensify into Monday as leeside low pressure strengthens across the
central and southern Plains. That said...northern most of two
leeside lows to slowly begin sliding through the area Monday
afternoon...with subsequent fropa and associated precip holding off
until after 00z Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Main item of interest heading into the middle to latter stages of
the work week remains focused on unseasonably cold temperatures as
strong Arctic high pressure settles south across the CONUS. Model
guidance continues to come in colder and colder with each successive
model run...and feel no reason not the follow the strong signal
offered by several long range sources. That said...main cold front
slide through the area early Tuesday morning with all signs pointing
to even less QPF than previously forecast as best frontogenesis with
the 850-hPa low looks to remain north across eastern Nebraska and
central Iowa. Despite this...cold air advection along the backside of
the departing feature should allow some precip to work south over the
CWA...however latest GFS BUFKIT soundings now showing very limited
saturation in the max snow growth region. Regardless...with the
thermal column rapidly cooling following fropa...cannot rule out a
-RA/SN mix early Tuesday morning with little to no accumulations
expected.
After fropa...cold is the name of the game as high pressure settles
over the Plains. Quick look at GFS 925 and 850 hPa temp anomalies
shows values of 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal. This should
yield daytime highs that struggle to reach the upper 30s...with
overnight lows easily falling into the teens and lower 20s. No real
end in sight as downstream ridging east of Greenland prevents any
eastward movement of a strong Hudson Bay upper low. As a
result...developing mid-latitude zonal flow further south across our
region will essentially lock in the cold air in place until the end
of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
Cold front is currently moving through the terminals with winds
veering around to the NW with sustained winds of 15-20...gusting 25-30kt
behind the front. Winds will continue to remain gusty through early
tomorrow afternoon before decreasing and becoming light tomorrow
night as high pressure settles into the region. Mid to upper level
cloud deck will remain tied to the front and will quickly work out of
the area. Current upstream obs reveal that the main 3Kft deck may slide
east of the terminals with just a few to sct developing near the
terminals. The HRRR model also hints at this...thus have kept sct
3-4Kft deck in for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
446 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS HAVE REPLACED THE COLD ADVECTION LOW
CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY WHILE THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGS A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH WESTERN AREAS FOR THE LAST PART
OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SPEEDING OFF TO OUR NORTH SO THE LIGHT MODEL QPFS LOOK REASONABLE.
PLUMES SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PRECIP OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN
MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM JOHNSTOWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...A
PRETTY TYPICAL COOL SEASON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PATTERN.
AFTER STARTING OFF BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST
TIME THIS YOUNG COOL SEASON...HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE
TODAY ONLY RISING INTO THE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OR WASH OUT ALTOGETHER
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE OF THE
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY...RISING INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MUCH HERALDED DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSTER LOW...THE EXTRATROPICAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI...IN THE
BERING SEA WEST OF ALASKA HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS HELPING
TO PUSH ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR SOUTH. MODELS ADVERTISE THIS COLD
POOL TO EVENTUALLY TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...BEFORE SLOSHING EAST TO CHILL DOWN MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
US TO THE EAST COAST.
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE TRANQUIL AND DRY AHEAD OF A WAVE
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GR LAKES TUESDAY. THIS IS MADE TO SPEED THROUGH THE
AREA WITH JUST LIGHT PRECIP FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF USHERING IN THE COLD AIR THAT IS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA.
WHILE THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE ALL AGREES ON THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND TURNING COLD...THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES REMAIN A BIT MURKY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SPEEDING
THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF SHARPENS ITS FEATURE MARKEDLY. MOISTURE
DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION FROM SOMETHING THAT LOOKS LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF WANTS
TO GENERATE COULD YIELD A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WHERE
TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO STICK. IT IS EARLY
IN THE YEAR AND WAY TOO FAR OUT TO SPECULATE MUCH BEYOND THAT AT
THIS POINT. WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE SUREST BET PART OF THE FORECAST IS
THAT THE WEEK WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE THAN IT STARTS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A FEW LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLDS FROM WARM
ADVECTION ALREADY IN WESTERN AREAS.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOOP OF IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
LATE THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT
LKS. FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
KBFD...WHERE BOTH RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS BTWN 07Z-11Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU
NORTHWEST PA.
ALL MDL DATA SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
SATURDAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVR THE
W MTNS LATE SAT EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE W MTNS.
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS. STRATUS CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...BUT
THE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A FEW LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLDS FROM WARM
ADVECTION ALREADY IN WESTERN AREAS.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOOP OF IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
LATE THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT
LKS. FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
KBFD...WHERE BOTH RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS BTWN 07Z-11Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU
NORTHWEST PA.
ALL MDL DATA SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
SATURDAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVR THE
W MTNS LATE SAT EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOC SHOWERS MOVE THRU.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE W MTNS.
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
314 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRISK THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MUCH MORE SOLID A COUPLE HOURS
AGO... WITH NOTABLE HOLES AND MUCH MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...SETS
WELL WITH RAP AND NAM RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEST BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z...WHILE HOLDING ON TO CLOUDS FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER THROUGH
THE EAST. OTHER THAN INCREASING THE SHORT RANGE SKYCOVER...TRENDS
LOOK GOOD WITH A LATER MORNING DECREASE BEFORE THICKENING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
TREND TOWARD STABILIZING THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE FOR MOST...LOWER TO MID 40S EAST...BUT BETTER RETURN
GRADIENT AND WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME LOWER 50S TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
INTENSE JET OF 150+ KNOTS DIGS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THREAT FOR ANY ISENTROPICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
BEST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WORST CASE A LITTLE NON MEASURABLE
03Z-08Z BRUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AROUND KMML...BUT
SIDING WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP THIS AT BAY. GOOD NEWS
HERE AGAIN IS THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH CLIPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PULLING WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED SOME TEMPS ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE TAKEN THIS FAR ENOUGH IF
WARMING WITH RECENT NOCTURNAL WARM SURGES IS ANY MEASURE. WEAK
SIGNATURE OF WIND ENHANCEMENT DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO RIDGE. LATER IN
THE NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND CLIPPER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. NAM
REPRESENTS BY FAR THE SLOWEST WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE SOLID CONSENSUS
OF OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...GENERALLY A KMJQ TO KYKN
LINE BY 12Z. FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WITH PRESENCE OF WARMER
SECTOR OF CLIPPER HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY RIDGE INDUCED COOLING DURING THE EVENING EAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S...AND MAINLY FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE AREA MAINLY INTO THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE
WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MORESO THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND
WILL TWEAK UPWARDS A LITTLE AS SOMETIMES THE NAM HANDLES THESE
BOUNDARIES A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FALL. BUT OVERALL A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO
EXPECTING HIGH FROM ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
55 TO 60 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING FORCING ALONG
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND CHANGE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN QUICKLY
OVER TO SNOW. LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SMALL WARM LAYER
ALOFT THAT COULD BRIEFLY SUPPORT SOME SLEET BUT OVERALL THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW AS STRONG FORCING AND QUICK
SATURATION SUPPORT SNOW.
HAVE DROPPED POPS AND QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH...BOTH LOWER RESOLUTION AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS KEEPS POPS AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BUT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD INTO
THE 5TH PERIOD WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS
WERE TO TREND ANOTHER 30 TO 50 MILES NORTH AMOUNTS EVEN FROM
BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL WOULD LIKELY BE 3 INCHES OR LESS. DO LIKE THE
IDEA THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW WITH A TIGHTER
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT CHANCE AT
SOME ENHANCED BANDING. FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AND MAINLY FROM
BROOKINGS TOWARDS MARSHALL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND HAVE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH WHICH MIGHT
START OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BUT BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES
SEEN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A COLD PATTERN
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE SNOWFALL DOES END UP
BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE RECENT TRENDS THEN SOME OF THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE CHANGES. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET BUT
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK WAVE THAT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN AFTER 10Z. BROKEN CEILINGS WILL HOVER
AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER DECKS TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THERE WILL BE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ071.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1041 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL MB WITH MAIN COOL FRONT
ABOUT READY TO EXIT CWA AS IT THRUSTS INTO WESTERN NE. PEAK
MIXING/ISALLOBARIC FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST HIGHEST WINDS ARE
ABOUT DONE. 18Z NAM/20Z RAP SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL TAKE A
CLOSE LOOK AT 300PM OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DETERMINATION ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING...CERTAINLY
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE IF WARNING IS DROPPED.
LAST BATCH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HITTING THE HILLS
WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY CREATE BREEZY SPOTS ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE MILD
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...STILL LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST COULD INCREASE AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP...AND SO THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SECONDARY WAVE/UPPER LOW STILL PLANS ON BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. WITH
SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS...POSSIBLY MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST...AND NOW ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1124 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST. ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. NO
OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014/
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGUY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH KDHT AND
KAMA AROUND 01Z AND 03Z SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH NORTH
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT BE NOTICEABLY GUSTY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTINESS TO
INCREASE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS
BEING 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NO CLOUDS OTHER THAN MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL ARE EXPECTED. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT OBS SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO MAKING THE WIND FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AS FAR NORTH AS
GUYMON EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOW WELL INTO THE 70S. A SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO WILL IMPINGE ON THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THESE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT FORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
BRB
LONG TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...AND A
STRONG SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
FAIRLY STABLE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN 1040-1050MB WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL ANCHOR THE COLDER AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWA COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. IF THE HARD FREEZE DOESN/T OCCUR
TUESDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND MID 20S
ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...AND WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...IT COULD BE THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME THE
SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHETHER IT WILL BE ALL
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR IF IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL...SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
CE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
ADDED WINNESHIEK AND FAYETTE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA TO WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 08.06Z. COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AND THERE ARE SEVERAL OBS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. RAP 0.5 KM WINDS FROM 40 TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY-ADIABATIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN AREAS WITH FEWER
TREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
AT 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AIR
BELOW 700 MB HAS BEEN LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND.
THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT. LITTLE...IF
ANY...SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...950
TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 9 C/KM FROM 08.04Z AND
08.12Z. THIS WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 45 MPH TODAY. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 08.06Z AND
08.12Z. DUE TO THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 40 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW
750 MB TO PRODUCE SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
FROM THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM EARECKSON AIR STATION IN
SHEMYA ALASKA /PASY/ HAS A SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WIND AT 70 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 97 MPH. THE 07.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA...IT EJECTS A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE SNOW TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSES
CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES FROM KANSAS CITY TO MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE TRACK IS SIMILAR...THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
GFS...GEM...AND NAM. AS A RESULT...ITS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW RUNS
FROM THE ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO ESCANABA MICHIGAN. EVEN THOUGH
ITS HEAVIEST SNOW IS NORTH...IT STILL PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THEIR
HEAVIEST SNOW STILL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE SPC SREF HAS A
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 0 INCHES TO 17.6
INCHES. THE MEAN IS 7.5 INCHES. HOWEVER A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
ARE EITHER CLUSTERED BETWEEN 8 AND 17.5 INCHES AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES. CURRENT HPC SNOW FORECAST WAS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE
07.00Z ECMWF AND THE 07.12Z GFS. THE 07.12Z NAM WAS THOUGHT TO BE
AN OUTLIER...THUS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. STILL THINKING
THAT A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE WILL STILL BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING
/GEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST/ AND LOCATION ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOTHING WITH IT AT THIS TIME. BY THE WAY...THE
LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A SNOW STORM THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS
NOVEMBER 10-11 2006. A MULTI WEATHER BRIEFING FOR THIS STORM CAN
BE FOUND ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL.
FOR TUESDAY...THE 07.12Z ECMWF HAS A SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THE WAKE
OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM. THIS RESULTS IN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DUE TO
THIS...SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SIGNAL FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STAYED WITH THE MODEL BLEND.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10 AND -16C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THEY ARE NOT RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS OF 08.0530Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 35 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL
CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN GENERALLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT
AGL RANGE AND WILL IMPACT BOTH KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. NORTHWEST
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1045 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
ADDED WINNESHIEK AND FAYETTE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA TO WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 08.06Z. COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AND THERE ARE SEVERAL OBS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. RAP 0.5 KM WINDS FROM 40 TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY-ADIABATIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN AREAS WITH FEWER
TREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
AT 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AIR
BELOW 700 MB HAS BEEN LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND.
THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT. LITTLE...IF
ANY...SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...950
TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 9 C/KM FROM 08.04Z AND
08.12Z. THIS WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 45 MPH TODAY. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 08.06Z AND
08.12Z. DUE TO THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 40 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW
750 MB TO PRODUCE SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
FROM THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM EARECKSON AIR STATION IN
SHEMYA ALASKA /PASY/ HAS A SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WIND AT 70 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 97 MPH. THE 07.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA...IT EJECTS A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE SNOW TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSES
CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES FROM KANSAS CITY TO MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE TRACK IS SIMILAR...THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
GFS...GEM...AND NAM. AS A RESULT...ITS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW RUNS
FROM THE ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO ESCANABA MICHIGAN. EVEN THOUGH
ITS HEAVIEST SNOW IS NORTH...IT STILL PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THEIR
HEAVIEST SNOW STILL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE SPC SREF HAS A
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 0 INCHES TO 17.6
INCHES. THE MEAN IS 7.5 INCHES. HOWEVER A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
ARE EITHER CLUSTERED BETWEEN 8 AND 17.5 INCHES AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES. CURRENT HPC SNOW FORECAST WAS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE
07.00Z ECMWF AND THE 07.12Z GFS. THE 07.12Z NAM WAS THOUGHT TO BE
AN OUTLIER...THUS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. STILL THINKING
THAT A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE WILL STILL BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING
/GEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST/ AND LOCATION ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOTHING WITH IT AT THIS TIME. BY THE WAY...THE
LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A SNOW STORM THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS
NOVEMBER 10-11 2006. A MULTI WEATHER BRIEFING FOR THIS STORM CAN
BE FOUND ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL.
FOR TUESDAY...THE 07.12Z ECMWF HAS A SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THE WAKE
OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM. THIS RESULTS IN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DUE TO
THIS...SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SIGNAL FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STAYED WITH THE MODEL BLEND.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10 AND -16C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THEY ARE NOT RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO IMPACT KRST BY
07.05Z AND KLSE BY 07.06Z WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FALLING CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS TO LIFT SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT NOT BREAK
ABOVE 3000 FT AGL UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 20 KTS LATE IN THE
DAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1000 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
JUST PUSHED THROUGH CHEYENNE LAST HOUR WITH A TEMPERATURE DROP OF
10 DEGREES AND WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH. THE FRONT IS ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WILL PUSH INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLY MIXING IN BEFORE
THE PRECIP ENDS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR ISOLATED
COVERAGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING
AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND WELL AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CANADA. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ALONG I25 AND I80 SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT WITH
700MB WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS AND MODEL SURFACE GRADIENT NEAR THE
THRESHOLD FOR 58+ MPH GUSTS NEAR BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WIND CONCERN WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO MONTANA AS SURFACE PRESSURE RAPIDLY LOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MAY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
700 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL EXTEND OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT
AND PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY
NEED A HIGH WIND WATCH SOON FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE ZONES AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS 3 TO 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...SNOW AMOUNTS AND HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POLAR ENERGY STARTING TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS AIR
MASS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO ENTER WYOMING BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY AND PLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH EVEN QUICKER. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES COULD START OUT IN THE
30S AND 40S BEFORE DAYBREAK AND DROP SHARPLY INTO THE TEENS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST GRIDS.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 250MB JET ENERGY
BEGINNING TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE SHOWING THE JET ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY MOVING INTO MONTANA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/GEM IS TENDING
TO TRACK THE JET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WYOMING WITH MORE OF THE VORTICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTION...BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION. WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO PERIODIC JET STREAKS MOVING
THROUGH AREA.
THE INITIAL SNOW BAND COULD SETUP OVER CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE THEY MAY
PICKUP 2 TO 4 INCHES EARLY ON NEAR THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS.
THE REST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONTOGENESIS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN WITH THE SNOWFALL PUSHING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT
REAL CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER JET STREAK PLOWING INTO THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY EVENING WHICH MAY GET THE SNOW GOING ACROSS COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT
TIMEFRAME BECAUSE IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
JET STREAK MOVES.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
IF THE JET REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WE MAY FACE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IN
FACT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH
LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES TO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUDGE MUCH WITH THIS
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SO DIURNAL SWINGS WILL MOST LIKELY BE LITTLE
IF ANY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S UNTIL LATE IN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. IT DOES SHOW
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...SO DID BRING KCDR...KAIA AND KSNY DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD BE VFR EVERYWHERE AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE WESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MILD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY AREAS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN
ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
556 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
A cold front was moving southeastward through the St Louis metro
area early this morning. There was relatively strong and gusty
nwly surface winds behind it bringing clouds at 2000-3000 feet in
height into UIN and COU and soon into the St Louis metro area
later this morning. These low level clouds should shift southeast
of UIN and COU early this afternoon and then southeast of the St
Louis metro area by late afternoon. The surface wind should become
light early this evening as a surface ridge axis shifts
southeastward into our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The surface wind will become nwly and
strengthen this morning after fropa. Low level clouds around
2000-3000 feet in height will also advect southeastward into STL
this morning. These low level clouds will eventually clear out by
late this afternoon. The surface wind will become light early this
evening, then s-swly Sunday morning as the surface ridge axis
shifts southeast of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
514 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cooler temperatures today as surface front moved through the region
bring modest cold air advection. Upper flow has veered and 1000-500MB
thickness values will drop from yesterday as gusty northwest surface
winds usher in cooler air.
Some stratus is showing up in satellite and surface
observations...both the RUC and NAM show this well at 925MB. These
clouds will continue moving into the area from Iowa and mainly affect
the northern half of the CWA through around noon when drier air moves
into the area.
Late this afternoon towards sunset...the surface high slides
southeast over the area and the gradient will diminish. After around
00Z the winds will swing around to the southwest and keep the low
temperatures into the lower 40s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
The warm air advection on the back side of the surface high pressure
will increase on Sunday...bring temperatures back into the 60s for
Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will continue for the start of the
workweek before the well-advertised cold air pushes down from Canada
late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Models agree that the coldest air of the season will overspread the
region by Veteran`s Day morning...making any outdoor ceremonies very
cold. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the area...but a
very quick glance at the ECMWF 00Z run is a little more agressive
with precipitation into Tuesday morning. It does hold the coldest air
back into Iowa and Nebraska until well after the precipitation moves
well east...suggesting little in the way of frozen precipitation as
the front moves through. Will keep the best chance north of the river
and the mixed wording for now.
After the cold air settles over the region...there will be little in
the way of warming up for the remainder of the week. Highs will be
well below normal...20 to 30 degrees F below normal...including
temperatures in the teens on Thursday night into Friday along and
north of Highway 36.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cigs will be main concern...although currently VFR...there are some
upstream sites with MVFR cigs. The RUC and NAM models show above 75
percent RH at 925 MB...but only through around mid morning. Then drier air
will move over the terminals and SKC will prevail. Also...winds will
continue to be gusty from the northwest...they will not taper off
until near sunset.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
542 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRISK THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MUCH MORE SOLID A COUPLE HOURS
AGO... WITH NOTABLE HOLES AND MUCH MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...SETS
WELL WITH RAP AND NAM RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEST BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z...WHILE HOLDING ON TO CLOUDS FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER THROUGH
THE EAST. OTHER THAN INCREASING THE SHORT RANGE SKYCOVER...TRENDS
LOOK GOOD WITH A LATER MORNING DECREASE BEFORE THICKENING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
TREND TOWARD STABILIZING THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE FOR MOST...LOWER TO MID 40S EAST...BUT BETTER RETURN
GRADIENT AND WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME LOWER 50S TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
INTENSE JET OF 150+ KNOTS DIGS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THREAT FOR ANY ISENTROPICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
BEST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WORST CASE A LITTLE NON MEASURABLE
03Z-08Z BRUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AROUND KMML...BUT
SIDING WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP THIS AT BAY. GOOD NEWS
HERE AGAIN IS THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH CLIPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PULLING WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED SOME TEMPS ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE TAKEN THIS FAR ENOUGH IF
WARMING WITH RECENT NOCTURNAL WARM SURGES IS ANY MEASURE. WEAK
SIGNATURE OF WIND ENHANCEMENT DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO RIDGE. LATER IN
THE NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND CLIPPER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. NAM
REPRESENTS BY FAR THE SLOWEST WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE SOLID CONSENSUS
OF OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...GENERALLY A KMJQ TO KYKN
LINE BY 12Z. FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WITH PRESENCE OF WARMER
SECTOR OF CLIPPER HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY RIDGE INDUCED COOLING DURING THE EVENING EAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S...AND MAINLY FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE AREA MAINLY INTO THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE
WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MORESO THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND
WILL TWEAK UPWARDS A LITTLE AS SOMETIMES THE NAM HANDLES THESE
BOUNDARIES A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FALL. BUT OVERALL A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO
EXPECTING HIGH FROM ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
55 TO 60 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING FORCING ALONG
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND CHANGE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN QUICKLY
OVER TO SNOW. LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SMALL WARM LAYER
ALOFT THAT COULD BRIEFLY SUPPORT SOME SLEET BUT OVERALL THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW AS STRONG FORCING AND QUICK
SATURATION SUPPORT SNOW.
HAVE DROPPED POPS AND QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH...BOTH LOWER RESOLUTION AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS KEEPS POPS AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BUT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD INTO
THE 5TH PERIOD WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS
WERE TO TREND ANOTHER 30 TO 50 MILES NORTH AMOUNTS EVEN FROM
BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL WOULD LIKELY BE 3 INCHES OR LESS. DO LIKE THE
IDEA THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW WITH A TIGHTER
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT CHANCE AT
SOME ENHANCED BANDING. FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AND MAINLY FROM
BROOKINGS TOWARDS MARSHALL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND HAVE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH WHICH MIGHT
START OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BUT BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES
SEEN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A COLD PATTERN
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE SNOWFALL DOES END UP
BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE RECENT TRENDS THEN SOME OF THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE CHANGES. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET BUT
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK WAVE THAT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 29 AND
EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH
12Z SUN...WITH OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH THE VERY UPPER END
OF MVFR HEIGHTS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MAY NEED TO ADD IN A
PERIOD OF LLWS TO THE KSUX/KFSD TAFS IF LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE IN LATER RUNS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front moving through the area... as of 11z it was south of a
MAF to PEQ line. North wind will be gusty behind the front
decreasing by afternoon. Brief morning fog has dissipated as drier
air moves into the region. VFR through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and some fog located over
the eastern portions Terrell County this morning, extending
northward across extreme eastern portions of Pecos County and into
the Midland area. The HRRR model suggests that as the cold front
continues to move southward across the area, clouds and fog in
these areas should diminish between 7 AM and 9 AM CST. The cold
front has made it to the central Permian Basin. It should move through
the entire area pretty rapidly today, making way for mostly sunny
skies.
As the cold front moves across the area this morning, breezy
conditions are expected along and just behind the front. A high
wind warning is in effect until 11 am MST for the Guadalupe
Mountains for high winds primarily through the pass.
The big concern for this forecast period remains the potential for a
significant freeze Wednesday through Friday morning across much of
the area east of the mountains. In many cases, our coldest nights
occur on the second night after a frontal passage. This could very
well be the case here. The ECMWF is indicating the potential for
temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday morning. We have not
committed to temperatures that cold into the forecast yet.
Forecast soundings show at least some potential for clouds
Thursday morning. This could moderate temperatures slightly. For
now, we have forecast a hard freeze reaching as far south as the
near the Midland and Odessa area with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.
A warming trend is in store through Monday prior to the arrival of
the significant cold front. Monday looks breezy as well. Downslope
southwest to west winds could result in temperatures on Monday
being in the 80s across the Upper Trans Pecos and western portions
of the Permian Basin. With the arrival of the cold front early
Tuesday, it will be tough to warm out of the 40s and 50s for the
remainder of the week.
There are no significant changes to the forecast. The next chance
of any rain should be over the northern portions of the area next
weekend. However, a lot can happen in a week. For now, we have
introduced low order POPs for next Friday night into early Saturday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and some fog located over
the eastern portions Terrell County this morning, extending
northward across extreme eastern portions of Pecos County and into
the Midland area. The HRRR model suggests that as the cold front
continues to move southward across the area, clouds and fog in
these areas should diminish between 7 AM and 9 AM CST. The cold
front has made it to the central Permian Basin. It should move through
the entire area pretty rapidly today, making way for mostly sunny
skies.
As the cold front moves across the area this morning, breezy
conditions are expected along and just behind the front. A high
wind warning is in effect until 11 am MST for the Guadalupe
Mountains for high winds primarily through the pass.
The big concern for this forecast period remains the potential for a
significant freeze Wednesday through Friday morning across much of
the area east of the mountains. In many cases, our coldest nights
occur on the second night after a frontal passage. This could very
well be the case here. The ECMWF is indicating the potential for
temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday morning. We have not
committed to temperatures that cold into the forecast yet.
Forecast soundings show at least some potential for clouds
Thursday morning. This could moderate temperatures slightly. For
now, we have forecast a hard freeze reaching as far south as the
near the Midland and Odessa area with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.
A warming trend is in store through Monday prior to the arrival of
the significant cold front. Monday looks breezy as well. Downslope
southwest to west winds could result in temperatures on Monday
being in the 80s across the Upper Trans Pecos and western portions
of the Permian Basin. With the arrival of the cold front early
Tuesday, it will be tough to warm out of the 40s and 50s for the
remainder of the week.
There are no significant changes to the forecast. The next chance
of any rain should be over the northern portions of the area next
weekend. However, a lot can happen in a week. For now, we have
introduced low order POPs for next Friday night into early Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 64 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 64 42 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 66 36 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 46 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 41 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 64 38 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 61 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 40 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 64 42 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 68 39 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
72/03
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN THIS PERIOD. FOR TODAY HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH LESS WIND AS THE CWA RESIDES UNDER A
RATHER DRY NWLY FLOW. SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OUT LEAVING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE DAY. QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WELL THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN MTNS LATER
TONIGHT...A PRECURSOR OF THINGS TO COME. ANOTHER MILD DAY ON
SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AROUND THE MTNS AS SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH 700MB WIND APPROACHING
70KTS. GOOD DOWNWARD OMEGA OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND-PRONE
AREAS. AS A RESULT HAVE POSTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS LIKELY SCENARIO.
EVEN BIGGER CHANGES THEN ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR PLUNGES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO -8 TO -15 BY EVENING. UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
BY MONDAY EVENING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UNDERWAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WONT LIKELY GET OUT OF THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE UPPER
20S TO MIDDLE 30S OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN COLDER WITH SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBZERO READINGS TO START THE DAY OVER
PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
TEENS OVER WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP
ON TEMPS BY LATE WEEK...BUT NOT NEAR AS WARM AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WE WILL GET
SEVERAL CHANCES AT SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND JUST NORTH OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER JETMAX THAT WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. ACCUMULATIONS FOR ANY ONE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BASED ON WHAT WE SEE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DECK OF STRATUS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM KCDR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KAIA AREA. THIS
DECK IS DEVELOPING GRADUALLY SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS TO KSNY AS WELL THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BREAKING UP.
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW MORE RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS OVER
THE PANHANDLE...BUT GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS KEPT IT IN THROUGH
AT LEAST 14Z. ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG AROUND
KLAR. DONT THINK THAT WILL LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MIXING OUT THE LOW DECK AND FOG
BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CATEGORY ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS PICKING BACK UP MOST
SITES IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER
PARTS OFF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE CONCERNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF CRITICAL LEVELS
WHERE FUELS ARE STILL NOTED AS READY. TURNING MUCH COLDER MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAE
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
137 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WARM DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AND MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A RETURN OF MARINE AIR
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CONTINUE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MASS OF MARINE CLOUDS SPREADING SE
INTO OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS AT MIDDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
FROM NV TO KSAN WERE STILL AROUND 6 MBS OFFSHORE...AND NEUTRAL TO
THE EAST. AT 1 PM PST...THERE WERE STILL SOME LOCAL EASTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH REPORTED BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND FROM
REMOTE WIND PRONE SITES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND
GUSTS WERE MOSTLY BELOW 20 MPH.
AFTER ANOTHER VARY WARM AND SUNNY DAY...EXPECT FOG TO GATHER OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL HIRES MODELS SUGGEST IT
MAY TOUCH THE COAST...BUT BASED ON THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND
DRAINAGE LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD DRIFT BACK OFFSHORE BEFORE SUN
MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND.
BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING COOLING AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY TO THE COASTAL STRIP IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE BE A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE BONE DRY LEVELS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SOME VARY DYNAMIC CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED AND RESEMBLES SOMETHING MORE REMINISCENT OF DEEP WINTER.
OUR WARM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL BE SQUEEZED BACK TO
THE WEST AND BE UNDERCUT BY THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC...
WHILE A STRONG HIGH REEMERGES AT A MUCH HIGHER LATITUDE OVER THE
YUKON. MEANWHILE...A COLD VORTEX WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK SENDING
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO MID WINTER LEVELS...AND BLOCK ANY STRONG
STORMS FROM PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTPAC. A SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTING THIS TRIP MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NOCAL ON WED
BEFORE WASHING OUT.
THIS PATTERN WILL NO DOUBT BRING LOTS OF IMPACTS AND CHATTER AS SNOW
FLIES AND BIG STORMS SPIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. NO
COMPLAINTS FROM THE POLAR BEARS EITHER. BUT FOR SOCAL...THE RESULT
IS NOT NEARLY AS EXCITING. IT DOES BRING A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW THOUGH...AND THAT SHOULD BRING OUR WEATHER
BACK TO THE MID NOVEMBER AVERAGE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE
INTERESTING FOR US WITH THE STRONG RIDGING HOLDING AT VERY HIGH
LATITUDES. IF THE PATTERN PERSISTS IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...THE
EASTPAC MAY BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS...AND THAT MEANS STORM SYSTEMS IN
THE WESTERLIES MAY NOT BE BLOCKED AND DIVERTED NORTH. AT THE END OF
BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS (240 HRS)
WHICH BRINGS US TO NOV 18...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT TROUGHING IN
THE EASTPAC COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE LATER THAT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
082103Z...CHANCE THAT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND PERHAPS A FEW SM INLAND DURING THE 09/0500-1500
UTC TIME-FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING...FOG
OCCURRENCE...AND AIRPORTS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH VCFG AND TEMPO VIS 3-5SM IN THE KSAN AND KCRQ
TAFS...WITH TEMPO BKN CIGS AT KSNA DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FOG OCCURRING THERE. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
103 PM PST...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES DENSE FOG MOVING INTO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS THE
FOG BANK CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST INTO THE INNER WATERS AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE LIFTING LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOG THREAT.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN
THE OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND THROUGH/BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AREA OF RIVERSIDE
COUNTY SUN MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCAL WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY AROUND 15 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CONTINUED VERY LOW MINIMUM RH INLAND OF 10-15 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. BETTER RECOVERY WILL
BEGIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND EXTEND FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINTER WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC DEBUT NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND IS WHY TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BEFORE
FALLING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY CAUSING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
SWINGS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM A
RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP...AND EXPECT
VIRTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE COLDEST VALUES OF
THE YEAR WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MEAN JET POSITION CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS BECOME
MORE DIVERGES ON THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT OVERALL
DEPICT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS LATE IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
05Z THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10Z...SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. WINDS
THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 21Z AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY A FEW MID AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
315 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINTER WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC DEBUT NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND IS WHY TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BEFORE
FALLING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY CAUSING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
SWINGS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM A
RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP...AND EXPECT
VIRTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF SNOW AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE COLDEST VALUES OF
THE YEAR WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MEAN JET POSITION CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS BECOME
MORE DIVERGES ON THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT OVERALL
DEPICT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS LATE IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. LEE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER BOTH TERMINALS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT KGLD AT
TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE US PACIFIC COAST AND STRONG 498 UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT
OF DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND STORM TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA. BEYOND
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS NW FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN DIRECTION LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EAST INTO OUR CWA WITH GOOD WAA LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST...
RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT WINDS WELL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT A
FEW LOCATIONS...BUT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULT WOULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEVER
MEETING THE WIND/RH 3HR CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL HAVE A RIDGE SURGING UP THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CANADA AND INTO ALASKA...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND BE
ENTRENCHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE COLDEST DAY APPEARS IT WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 20 AND LOWS NEAR 10. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MUCH BELOW NORMAL RECORD LOWS ARE BELOW ZERO AND DO NOT APPEAR
THEY WILL BE THREATENED. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE MINOR...AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST WITH BEST CHANCES IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. LEE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER BOTH TERMINALS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT KGLD AT
TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1201 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Northwest flow behind the cold front is slowly diminishing, but
with good cold advection, don`t expect much more diurnal rise this
afternoon. Clouds are clearing from the northwest at about the
rate expected in the going forecast, so have only made minor tweaks.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow to the region this afternoon
and early this evening. As the ridge axis continues south
overnight expect wind to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will
continue to prevail into Sunday. MVFR ceilings mostly east of the
Mississippi will continue to lift to VFR this afternoon, and
scatter out as the day progresses. Expect mostly clear sky by 00Z
this evening and VFR flight conditions to prevail overnight into
Sunday. There may be some local steam fog right along area rivers,
but dry low levels should confine it to right along the river banks.
Specifics for KSTL:
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow this afternoon and early this
evening. As the ridge axis continues south overnight expect wind
to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will continue to prevail
into Sunday. Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds will
continue to prevail for a few more hours this afternoon before
finally clearing out from the west. VFR flight conditions to
prevail overnight into Sunday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Somewhat complex forecast for today. The cold front currently
extends from eastern Wisconsin across west central IL and central
MO into northern OK. It will sweep southeast today and extend
through south central IL and southeast MO at daybreak and exit the
CWA by mid morning as the attendant short wave trof digs to the
southeast. There hasn`t been any precipitation thus far ahead of
the front, and all of the ascent will have passed to the east of
the area by 12z. Thus the current plan is to drop the low pops and
at best leave a mention of early morning spinkles east of the MS
River. The complicating factors are that the temperatures are
actually warmer in a corridor in the wake of the front, and there
is an extensive area of stratus advecting south southeast out of
Iowa and eastern Nebraska driven by 40-50 kt nnwly flow. Except
for the NAM and RAP 925 mb RH progs, the models don`t have a handle
on the clouds and they certainly don`t have a handle on the
temperature stratification. The general thought is the temps should
rise immediately ahead of and behind the front this morning, then
cool with the onset of the stronger cold advection/gusty northwest
winds and thickening clouds. The clouds should gradually clear and
diminish in coverage from NW to SE during the afternoon.
An elongated SW-NE surface ridge will be located across the CWA
early this evening and slide to the south tonight. This will
result in gradually backing surface winds to southwesterly by
daybreak Sunday and the onset of low level warm advection. The
coolest temps tonight should be across southeast MO and southern
IL where high clouds will be thinnest and the wind will remain
relatively light.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
Sunday will feature pronounced low level warm advection with
southwest to westerly lower trop flow. There will be high clouds
streaming around as well and these are the only caveat to a
relatively mild day. I am currently banking on the strength of the
WAA and have boosted highs a bit from the previous forecast. The
warm advection continues to strengthen on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front, and present indications are the high
clouds won`t be as big an issue for most of the day. As a result
I have boosted highs on Monday with most locations well into the
60s and a few spots possibly touching 70. The bottom falls out
however Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of the much
discussed large scale amplification, a deep broad longwave trof
will evolve bringing a strong cold front through the area followed
by a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Some
timing issues have developed with the cold fropa with the ECMWF
the slowest model owing to a bit more amplified short wave, and
the front still just west of St. Louis at 12z Tuesday. This more
amplified short wave also results in more ascent in the cold air
on Tuesday and greater chance of precipitation, while The GFS and
NAM show little support for any precipitation in the cold air. At
this time we have favored an ensemblistic approach to both the
timing of the cold front and pops. Any threat of snowfall at this
time appears quite minimal and confined to far northeast MO and
west central IL on Tuesday morning. A large Arctic high will dominate
the region Wednesday through the end of the week resulting in high
temperatures more typical of January.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow to the region this afternoon
and early this evening. As the ridge axis continues south
overnight expect wind to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will
continue to prevail into Sunday. MVFR ceilings mostly east of the
Mississippi will continue to lift to VFR this afternoon, and
scatter out as the day progresses. Expect mostly clear sky by 00Z
this evening and VFR flight conditions to prevail overnight into
Sunday. There may be some local steam fog right along area rivers,
but dry low levels should confine it to right along the river banks.
Specifics for KSTL:
High pressure settling south through the Great Plains will
continue to provide northwest flow this afternoon and early this
evening. As the ridge axis continues south overnight expect wind
to become southwesterly. Southwest flow will continue to prevail
into Sunday. Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds will
continue to prevail for a few more hours this afternoon before
finally clearing out from the west. VFR flight conditions to
prevail overnight into Sunday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
Cooler temperatures today as surface front moved through the region
bring modest cold air advection. Upper flow has veered and 1000-500MB
thickness values will drop from yesterday as gusty northwest surface
winds usher in cooler air.
Some stratus is showing up in satellite and surface
observations...both the RUC and NAM show this well at 925MB. These
clouds will continue moving into the area from Iowa and mainly affect
the northern half of the CWA through around noon when drier air moves
into the area.
Late this afternoon towards sunset...the surface high slides
southeast over the area and the gradient will diminish. After around
00Z the winds will swing around to the southwest and keep the low
temperatures into the lower 40s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
The warm air advection on the back side of the surface high pressure
will increase on Sunday...bring temperatures back into the 60s for
Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will continue for the start of the
workweek before the well-advertised cold air pushes down from Canada
late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Models agree that the coldest air of the season will overspread the
region by Veteran`s Day morning...making any outdoor ceremonies very
cold. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the area...but a
very quick glance at the ECMWF 00Z run is a little more aggressive
with precipitation into Tuesday morning. It does hold the coldest air
back into Iowa and Nebraska until well after the precipitation moves
well east...suggesting little in the way of frozen precipitation as
the front moves through. Will keep the best chance north of the river
and the mixed wording for now.
After the cold air settles over the region...there will be little in
the way of warming up for the remainder of the week. Highs will be
well below normal...20 to 30 degrees F below normal...including
temperatures in the teens on Thursday night into Friday along and
north of Highway 36.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Only issue to
watch for looks to be the wind as it swings back to the south
overnight and then begins veering to the southwest Sunday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRISK THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MUCH MORE SOLID A COUPLE HOURS
AGO... WITH NOTABLE HOLES AND MUCH MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...SETS
WELL WITH RAP AND NAM RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEST BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z...WHILE HOLDING ON TO CLOUDS FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER THROUGH
THE EAST. OTHER THAN INCREASING THE SHORT RANGE SKYCOVER...TRENDS
LOOK GOOD WITH A LATER MORNING DECREASE BEFORE THICKENING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
TREND TOWARD STABILIZING THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE FOR MOST...LOWER TO MID 40S EAST...BUT BETTER RETURN
GRADIENT AND WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME LOWER 50S TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
INTENSE JET OF 150+ KNOTS DIGS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT
THREAT FOR ANY ISENTROPICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
BEST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND WORST CASE A LITTLE NON MEASURABLE
03Z-08Z BRUSHING THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AROUND KMML...BUT
SIDING WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP THIS AT BAY. GOOD NEWS
HERE AGAIN IS THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH CLIPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PULLING WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED SOME TEMPS ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAY NOT HAVE TAKEN THIS FAR ENOUGH IF
WARMING WITH RECENT NOCTURNAL WARM SURGES IS ANY MEASURE. WEAK
SIGNATURE OF WIND ENHANCEMENT DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO RIDGE. LATER IN
THE NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND CLIPPER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. NAM
REPRESENTS BY FAR THE SLOWEST WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE SOLID CONSENSUS
OF OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...GENERALLY A KMJQ TO KYKN
LINE BY 12Z. FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND WITH PRESENCE OF WARMER
SECTOR OF CLIPPER HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY RIDGE INDUCED COOLING DURING THE EVENING EAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S...AND MAINLY FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE AREA MAINLY INTO THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE
WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERN CWA MORESO THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND
WILL TWEAK UPWARDS A LITTLE AS SOMETIMES THE NAM HANDLES THESE
BOUNDARIES A LITTLE BETTER IN THE FALL. BUT OVERALL A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO
EXPECTING HIGH FROM ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
55 TO 60 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING FORCING ALONG
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND CHANGE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN QUICKLY
OVER TO SNOW. LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SMALL WARM LAYER
ALOFT THAT COULD BRIEFLY SUPPORT SOME SLEET BUT OVERALL THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW AS STRONG FORCING AND QUICK
SATURATION SUPPORT SNOW.
HAVE DROPPED POPS AND QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH...BOTH LOWER RESOLUTION AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS KEEPS POPS AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BUT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD INTO
THE 5TH PERIOD WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS
WERE TO TREND ANOTHER 30 TO 50 MILES NORTH AMOUNTS EVEN FROM
BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL WOULD LIKELY BE 3 INCHES OR LESS. DO LIKE THE
IDEA THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW WITH A TIGHTER
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT CHANCE AT
SOME ENHANCED BANDING. FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AND MAINLY FROM
BROOKINGS TOWARDS MARSHALL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND HAVE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH WHICH MIGHT
START OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BUT BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES
SEEN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A COLD PATTERN
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE SNOWFALL DOES END UP
BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE RECENT TRENDS THEN SOME OF THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE CHANGES. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET BUT
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK WAVE THAT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BUILD DOWN FROM ALOFT
TOWARDS THE SURFACE. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BUILD DOWN TOWARDS MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON STARTING AT
KHON...SPREADING EAST AS DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1026 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Post-frontal winds
will drop off this afternoon, w/light return flow resuming Sunday.
Buffer soundings suggest stratus/fog developing KCNM/KPEQ around
sunrise, but we`ll keep things VFR for now.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
Cold front moving through the area... as of 11z it was south of a
MAF to PEQ line. North wind will be gusty behind the front
decreasing by afternoon. Brief morning fog has dissipated as drier
air moves into the region. VFR through the period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and some fog located over
the eastern portions Terrell County this morning, extending
northward across extreme eastern portions of Pecos County and into
the Midland area. The HRRR model suggests that as the cold front
continues to move southward across the area, clouds and fog in
these areas should diminish between 7 AM and 9 AM CST. The cold
front has made it to the central Permian Basin. It should move through
the entire area pretty rapidly today, making way for mostly sunny
skies.
As the cold front moves across the area this morning, breezy
conditions are expected along and just behind the front. A high
wind warning is in effect until 11 am MST for the Guadalupe
Mountains for high winds primarily through the pass.
The big concern for this forecast period remains the potential for a
significant freeze Wednesday through Friday morning across much of
the area east of the mountains. In many cases, our coldest nights
occur on the second night after a frontal passage. This could very
well be the case here. The ECMWF is indicating the potential for
temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday morning. We have not
committed to temperatures that cold into the forecast yet.
Forecast soundings show at least some potential for clouds
Thursday morning. This could moderate temperatures slightly. For
now, we have forecast a hard freeze reaching as far south as the
near the Midland and Odessa area with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.
A warming trend is in store through Monday prior to the arrival of
the significant cold front. Monday looks breezy as well. Downslope
southwest to west winds could result in temperatures on Monday
being in the 80s across the Upper Trans Pecos and western portions
of the Permian Basin. With the arrival of the cold front early
Tuesday, it will be tough to warm out of the 40s and 50s for the
remainder of the week.
There are no significant changes to the forecast. The next chance
of any rain should be over the northern portions of the area next
weekend. However, a lot can happen in a week. For now, we have
introduced low order POPs for next Friday night into early Saturday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
44
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