Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
704 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE MARITIMES FRI BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...DRY WEATHER BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. MILDER
CONDITIONS FOLLOW SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. A QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION MID-WEEK WITH A COLD ARCTIC
BLAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
700 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
DRY SLOT HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MSAS GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE LOW
NOW MOVING OVER WESTERLY RI AND WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW...RIDING ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT...A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE AND
THE ISLANDS. LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP OVER THIS
REGION FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 4-6Z. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS RAP GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER ADDED IT
INTO THE FORECAST ALONG SIDE WITH PREV FORECASTER MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WITH PRES FALL CENTER OF 5 MB IN THE PAST 3
HRS OVER THIS AREA. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING AND THEN RACE NE INTO THE GULF OF ME OVERNIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND
AS A RESULT DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND IS
CONFIRMED BY PRECIP BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED ON RADAR. THEREFORE
PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM A STEADY RAIN TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR ALOFT BECOMES DEEPER. HENCE
FLOODING NOT A CONCERN.
ANOTHER WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS THE POTENT SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM
ACROSS OH/PA AND WVA THAT IS INVIGORATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LONG
ISLAND AT THE MOMENT. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION JUST DOWNSTREAM IN RESPONSE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED TONIGHT HOWEVER THE SHORT
WAVE DOES BECOME SOMEWHAT SHEARED...THUS WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT.
IN ADDITION MODELS SUGGEST DRY AIR MAY BECOME TOO DEEP OVERNIGHT FOR
INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. THUS HAVE LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ELEVATED THUNDER FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE EXIST.
IT MAY BECOME BREEZY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A TIME...SAY FROM 5 PM TO 9 PM AS LOW LEVEL JET AND
PRES FALL CENTER MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE...WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
FRIDAY...
LOW PRES OVER GULF OF ME AND EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. IN FACT TRAILING SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE MODEST TO
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER COLUMN
DOESN`T SATURATE SO INSTABILITY AND LIFT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
REALIZED. FOR NOW WE FOLLOWED THE MORE ROBUST SREF POPS WHICH OFFER
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY/EVENING RAIN SHOWERS. AS CAA COOLS THE
COLUMN COULD SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS END AS SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE TEMPS
ALONG WITH BLYR TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT QPF
/WET BULB TEMPS WON/T BE REACHED/ NOT EXPECTING ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH/MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
HERE.
OTHERWISE NNW WINDS BECOME BLUSTERY IN RESPONSE TO CAA AS MARITIME
LOW INTENSIFIES.
FRI NIGHT...
ANY LINGERING EVENING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH
MODEST CAA RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT ALONG WITH A BRISK NW WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD BLAST IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE HOWEVER
THEY BEGIN TO SPREAD BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE MODELS DIVERGE FOR
MID-WEEK. GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY TUESDAY DEVELOPING A DESCENT BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE NORTHEAST. BIGGEST QUESTION IS IF A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS WAVE AND HOW WILL THE ARCTIC FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE
RESPOND. IT APPEARS THAT THE UKMET/CANADIAN/EC ARE IN ONE CAMP BEING
MORE AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
WHILE THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE
SYSTEM TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IRONICALLY THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ARE
IN AGREEMENT BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF A WET BUT COLD PATTERN BY
WED/THURSDAY.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
YIELD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 50F.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A SERIES OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL TAKE PLACE...THE
FIRST EARLY SUN...AND THE SECOND LATE TUE. IN BETWEEN...HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUN WITH
STRONGER UPPER FORCING HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND HAVE ISOLATED
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THIS FRONT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...GUIDANCE
TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG IT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ARCTIC
OUTBREAK IN TEMPS BUT MAY ADD SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. THERE
ARE SEVERAL SOLUTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE SO FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND A COOLER BUT WETTER SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER 00Z...CONVECTION/T-STORMS OVER WESTERN PA INTO WVA WILL
MOVE ENE BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME. AN ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR IN AREAS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL 4-6Z. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NNW TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
AREAL EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION/T-STORMS OVER WESTERN PA AND
WVA.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...MVFR IN THE MORNING BECOMES VFR BY MIDDAY BUT
THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING AGAIN IN MVFR AFTER 18Z WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND TOWARD 00Z EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. COULD
END AS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH 00Z-03Z.
THEN IMPROVING OVERNIGHT TO VFR. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON TRENDS BUT
LOWER ON PRECISE DETAILS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER ON PRECISE DETAILS.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER ON PRECISE DETAILS.
OUTLOOK...SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH THRU FRI NIGHT.
TONIGHT...LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING AND
TRACKS ENE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THEN INTO GULF OF ME. LOW RISK
OF 30 KT OF WIND ALONG RI AND MA COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED TSTM
POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS.
FRI...LOW PRES ENTERS MARITIMES WITH INCREASING NW WINDS INCREASING
TO NEAR 30 KT LATE IN THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY TOWARD SUNSET.
FRI NIGHT...ANY EVENING SHOWERS END WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT
DECREASING AND BECOMING WNW LATE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO START ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE
CAA WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS INCREASING THE MIXING AND ALLOWING FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO REACH CLOSE TO 25-30KTS AND BUILD SEAS CLOSE TO 6 TO
7 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADV WILL BE NEEDED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX AND STAY CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GUSTS MAY
REACH UP TO 15 KTS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
231-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
629 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND STALL FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AS IT
DEPARTS FRIDAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
WINDS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS SO ANY RAIN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FRAGMENTED THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY DRY LOW-LEVELS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WELL OVER
10F.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WELL INTO THE 50S. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FAVORABLE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH...WITH LOCALLY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY SKIRT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY INT THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME SPREAD OVER PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE STORM TRACK...THE MDL SUITE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION THURSDAYS STORM.
A SERIES OF JET MAXES/SHORT WVS AT 500HPA CARVE OUT A TROF OVER THE
LOWER GRTLKS WITH AN ACCOMP CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW BY THU MRNG. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...IN BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC
ZONE FM THE OHIO VLY TO CAPE MAY NJ. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FM THE GULF OF MEX LIFTS NE UP THE PIEDMONT...AND
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE MID ATLC REACHING THE S TIER OF
NYS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF THE WMFNT.
DURING THU THIS 500HPA TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORT WVS DIG INTO IT. TOP DOWN CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AS SFC LOW
CENTER JUMPS TO EASTERN SEABOARD AT TRIPPLE POINT OFF NJ DURING THU.
RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY AND CONTS
INTO THU EVNG AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MVS NE TO DOWN EAST MAINE
BY FRI MRNG. ALL GUID TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH A
TRACK ALONG OR JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NT...WITH PCPN INITIALLY FM WARM
CONVEYOR MOISTURE INFLOW...BUT MAINLY FROM COLD CONVEYOR BELT INFLOW
THU NT. AS COASTAL LOW MVS N CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE THU NT WILL
CHANGE THE PCPN FROM RAIN TO SCT -SHSN. MOST MDL
(GEM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PLUMES) QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS N & W OF ALB. THE NAM HAS ANOTHER HALF INCH
OVER THESE VALUES...WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. NONE OF WHICH IS
SIG ENOUGH TO BE A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN.
FRI STRONG N SFC WIND GRADIENT W/14 HPA ACROSS NYS AS THE STORM
LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES. AT 500HPA FCA WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE MAIN TROF AS ITS CUTTING OFF WITH SVRL SHORT WVS DIVING INTO
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NY/NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER FCA
FRI...WITH SCT -SHSN PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB IN N-NW FLOW ASSOC
WITH DEEP 500HPA TROF EVOLVING INTO A CUT OFF. LK EFFECT RESPONSE
WILL MAINLY W OF SYR AS H850 FLOW IS N TO NE FRI.
FRI NT THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE NE INTO
ATLC...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. HWVR DURING THE EVNG THE WIND
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. OVERNIGHT FRI FCA RETURNS TO A FAST 500HPA
FLOW WITH QUICK CHANGING WX SYSTEMS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST.
SAT STARTS FAIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RGN...BUT NEXT STRONG
SHRT WV AND ITS ASSOC CDFNT IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE W
GRTLKS...AND CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN
SAT. SAT NT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN WITH SCT -SHRA
AND -SNSN.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THU...AND JUST TREND DOWN
AFTER. FRI AND SAT THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EFP WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND IN A FAST 500HPA FLOW PATTERN.
LATEST CDFNT EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN...AND 500HPA TROF AXIS
FOLLOWS SUIT DURING THE DAY. THAT LVS FCA IN NW FL;OW OF
CAA...WITH ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AT SFC...CYCLONIC FLOW ABV. SUN WILL
BE TYPICAL LATE FALL DAY WITH VRBL CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/SHSN
NW...AND PS TO MS SE.
SUN NT YET ANOTHER SHRT WV MVS ACROSS NY/QB BORDER RGN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
COLDEST CORE OF AIR MASS REMAINS N ON QB/ON BORDER RGNS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN OTTAWA VLY W INTO N GRTLKS. WHILE 500HPA FLOW SUN NT
WILL BE BACKING SUN NT...WAA WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
INCR CLOUDS.
MON 500HPA FLOW BCMS SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE USA.
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA WILL SHIFT N OUT OF RGN DURING THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY PS CONDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NR NORMAL. BY TUE 500
HPA CUT OFF OVER PRAIRIES OF S CNTRL CAN/N GRT PLAINS TURNS 500
HPA FLOW SW...AS W GRTLKS CYCLOGEN DEVELOPS. THIS LIFTS NE TWRD
HUDSON BAY...MEANWHILE OUT HERE IN THE EAST SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS SW...FCA SURGES INTO WARM SECTOR SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MILD VETERANS DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BLO
NORMAL...AND END IT ABV. WILL POPULATE W/HPC...BUT INCR TEMPS 5 OR
SO DEG TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 16Z.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WITH DRY
LOW-LEVELS IN PLACE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES GENERALLY 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25 KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KPOU LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASE
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH....BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT...AND UNDER UNDER 10 MPH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED REGION WIDE. THIS WILL RESULT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT
POSE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC THREAT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
553 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND STALL FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AS IT
DEPARTS FRIDAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
WINDS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS SO ANY RAIN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FRAGMENTED THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY DRY LOW-LEVELS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WELL OVER
10F.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WELL INTO THE 50S. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A
STRAY SHOWER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST
AREAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FAVORABLE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH...WITH LOCALLY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY SKIRT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY INT THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME SPREAD OVER PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE STORM TRACK...THE MDL SUITE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION THURSDAYS STORM.
A SERIES OF JET MAXES/SHORT WVS AT 500HPA CARVE OUT A TROF OVER THE
LOWER GRTLKS WITH AN ACCOMP CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW BY THU MRNG. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...IN BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC
ZONE FM THE OHIO VLY TO CAPE MAY NJ. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FM THE GULF OF MEX LIFTS NE UP THE PIEDMONT...AND
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE MID ATLC REACHING THE S TIER OF
NYS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF THE WMFNT.
DURING THU THIS 500HPA TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORT WVS DIG INTO IT. TOP DOWN CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AS SFC LOW
CENTER JUMPS TO EASTERN SEABOARD AT TRIPPLE POINT OFF NJ DURING THU.
RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY AND CONTS
INTO THU EVNG AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MVS NE TO DOWN EAST MAINE
BY FRI MRNG. ALL GUID TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH A
TRACK ALONG OR JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NT...WITH PCPN INITIALLY FM WARM
CONVEYOR MOISTURE INFLOW...BUT MAINLY FROM COLD CONVEYOR BELT INFLOW
THU NT. AS COASTAL LOW MVS N CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE THU NT WILL
CHANGE THE PCPN FROM RAIN TO SCT -SHSN. MOST MDL
(GEM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PLUMES) QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS N & W OF ALB. THE NAM HAS ANOTHER HALF INCH
OVER THESE VALUES...WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. NONE OF WHICH IS
SIG ENOUGH TO BE A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN.
FRI STRONG N SFC WIND GRADIENT W/14 HPA ACROSS NYS AS THE STORM
LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES. AT 500HPA FCA WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE MAIN TROF AS ITS CUTTING OFF WITH SVRL SHORT WVS DIVING INTO
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NY/NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER FCA
FRI...WITH SCT -SHSN PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB IN N-NW FLOW ASSOC
WITH DEEP 500HPA TROF EVOLVING INTO A CUT OFF. LK EFFECT RESPONSE
WILL MAINLY W OF SYR AS H850 FLOW IS N TO NE FRI.
FRI NT THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE NE INTO
ATLC...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. HWVR DURING THE EVNG THE WIND
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. OVERNIGHT FRI FCA RETURNS TO A FAST 500HPA
FLOW WITH QUICK CHANGING WX SYSTEMS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST.
SAT STARTS FAIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RGN...BUT NEXT STRONG
SHRT WV AND ITS ASSOC CDFNT IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE W
GRTLKS...AND CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN
SAT. SAT NT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN WITH SCT -SHRA
AND -SNSN.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THU...AND JUST TREND DOWN
AFTER. FRI AND SAT THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EFP WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND IN A FAST 500HPA FLOW PATTERN.
LATEST CDFNT EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN...AND 500HPA TROF AXIS
FOLLOWS SUIT DURING THE DAY. THAT LVS FCA IN NW FL;OW OF
CAA...WITH ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AT SFC...CYCLONIC FLOW ABV. SUN WILL
BE TYPICAL LATE FALL DAY WITH VRBL CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/SHSN
NW...AND PS TO MS SE.
SUN NT YET ANOTHER SHRT WV MVS ACROSS NY/QB BORDER RGN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
COLDEST CORE OF AIR MASS REMAINS N ON QB/ON BORDER RGNS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN OTTAWA VLY W INTO N GRTLKS. WHILE 500HPA FLOW SUN NT
WILL BE BACKING SUN NT...WAA WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
INCR CLOUDS.
MON 500HPA FLOW BCMS SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE USA.
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA WILL SHIFT N OUT OF RGN DURING THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY PS CONDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NR NORMAL. BY TUE 500
HPA CUT OFF OVER PRAIRIES OF S CNTRL CAN/N GRT PLAINS TURNS 500
HPA FLOW SW...AS W GRTLKS CYCLOGEN DEVELOPS. THIS LIFTS NE TWRD
HUDSON BAY...MEANWHILE OUT HERE IN THE EAST SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS SW...FCA SURGES INTO WARM SECTOR SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MILD VETERANS DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BLO
NORMAL...AND END IT ABV. WILL POPULATE W/HPC...BUT INCR TEMPS 5 OR
SO DEG TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT...AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT...WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 10C...SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE
OVERCAST AROUND 20 KFT AND LOWERING TO OVERCAST AROUND 5-7 KFT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 09Z-13Z WITH ONLY VCSH MENTIONED AT
KGFL. HAVE INCLUDED A SCATTERED CLOUD GROUP AROUND 3-5 KFT TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KGFL AS PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LIMIT ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASE
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH....BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT...AND UNDER UNDER 10 MPH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED REGION WIDE. THIS WILL RESULT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT
POSE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC THREAT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE DIPPING INTO STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...A
CURRENTLY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW OVER MONTANA WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS INTO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LOW ENERGY LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE FL PENINSULA AND UP THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE IS BEING CUT DOWN BY THE ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVER OUR HEADS THROUGH THE DURATION OF TODAY. THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS PER 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE AND NWP TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
PLOTS. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB...WITH A DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE TROP...AND THEN HIGH MOISTURE AGAIN TOWARD THE UPPER TROP (ABOVE
300-400MB).
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...ELONGATED 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM GA/SC EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...HELPING TO RESUPPLY THE LOWER
LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
ARE SEASONABLE...WITH MAINLY 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PLEASANT...DRY...AND WARM EARLY NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. STACKED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION
HELPING TO NOT ONLY KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE...BUT ALSO RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING ON EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN PERIOD OF SCT STRATOCU THIS MORNING AND
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME HIGHER LEVEL...BUT THIN CIRRUS
STREAMS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. OUR REGION HAS
BEEN MIXING UP TO 850-800MB THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND EXPECT
SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY. THIS TYPE OF MIXING WITH 850-800MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11-13C SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR MAY BRIEFLY HIT MIDDLE 80S.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE MS VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS TO THE
SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVOLVING TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND LOSS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL REMAIN
QUIET...DRY...AND SEASONABLE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTH...AND 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY AND BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AROUND
SUNSET. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE RETURN IS
MEAGER AT BEST...AND MUCH OF THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THURSDAY ANOTHER COMPLETELY RAIN
FREE DAY. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM. WE WILL HAVE LOST
THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT WILL NOW BE WITHIN THE
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES WILL AGAIN REACH UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST SPOTS. WINDS
SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS. COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A GREAT
WEDNESDAY EVERYBODY!
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING FRI AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH
ACROSS FL...WITH SOME ROBUST WINDS...AND SETTLES IN FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF EASTWARD TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. DURING THE
WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND CARVES OUT A
TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE YUCATAN. THIS WILL HELP LIFT THE FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD BACK ACROSS THE AREA AND
FORM A SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE ON THE GULF THAT TRACKS TO THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SUN. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC STARTED OUT
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
FASTER AND HAS A DEEPER LOW WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE SIMILAR WITH
A MORE MODEST TROUGH AND IS SLOWER. ON MON THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW EXIT OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUE.
FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS INTO SAT THEN
BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
SEE A RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES END THE WEEK NEAR
NORMAL BUT COOL OFF SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...BUT THEN SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TO AROUND
NORMAL BY TUE. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE WINDS...AS NOTED ABOVE...WILL
BE FRI WHEN SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU WITH BASES ABOVE 5000FT WILL CONTINUE
CROSS THE PENINSULA FROM WEST TO EAST...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS AT
TIMES INVADE OUR SKIES FROM THE WEST. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
1026MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT A SHIFT OF WINDS
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF
ENGLEWOOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 66 83 64 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 84 65 85 66 / 10 0 0 10
GIF 83 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 84 64 83 65 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 84 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 82 68 82 68 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
837 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND IS ON TARGET TO BE OFF THE COAST
BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME A
BIT GUSTY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING A STEADY FALL. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...UNTIL THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
GRIDDED POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED TO ZERO.
LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY. RAP BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE
TO 25-30 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WHERE MIXING
BECOMES MAXIMIZED OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD 1 TO
3 FEET...BECOMING HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...WITH
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...QUICKLY BECOMING LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...NORTH FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES NEARLY 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY
REACHING THE MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FARTHEST SOUTH.
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT AS
IT STEADILY SLIPS TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK
EAST LATE IN THE DAY...ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
LOCALLY ONSHORE AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM...SO PREFER TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND INDICATE SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES JUST OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE OFFSHORE...INITIALLY ALONG THE
COAST WITHIN NORTHEAST FLOW...BEFORE SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITHIN THE MODIFYING AIR
MASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SURFACE WAVE WILL ELONGATE AND
SHIFT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS STILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AS
OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS DRIER AIR IN
PLACE. HAVE THUS KEPT LAND AREAS RAIN FREE AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER STEADILY DIMINISHING SKY
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CO-LOCATED SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NE AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME TEMPORARY ZONAL
FLOW OR FLAT RIDGING TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL PROMOTE QUIET
SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...WITH A DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING AIR
MASS TO OCCUR.
AN ABRUPT CHANGE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE POLAR VORTEX MAY BURST INTO THE SCENE DURING MID WEEK. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SOMETIME NEXT WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SPARSE POPS AND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR AND SOME
HINTS OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO FORM.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...UNLESS
ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND HARBOR WITH 25-30 KT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD 3-5 FT NEARSHORE...5-7
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN FORCE AND WERE EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL END FRIDAY
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND
MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...ONLY A SMALL DEPARTURE COULD GENERATE SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
609 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING AND IS ON
TARGET TO BE OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A STEADY FALL. ALTHOUGH MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET WILL LINGER A BIT
LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...UNTIL THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY
WITH GRIDDED POPS BEING LOWERED TO LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ALL ZONES.
LAKE WINDS...BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED THAT A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON LAKE MOULTRIE. RAP BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WHERE MIXING BECOMES MAXIMIZED OVER THE OPEN
LAKE WATERS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO COLUMBIA...WILL HOLD OFF
ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO SEE IF SUBSEQUENT RAP RUNS SHOW SIMILAR
OUTPUT. THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD AT 15-20 KT WITH WAVES
BUILDING 1-2 FT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...WITH
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...QUICKLY BECOMING LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...NORTH FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES NEARLY 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY
REACHING THE MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FARTHEST SOUTH.
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT AS
IT STEADILY SLIPS TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK
EAST LATE IN THE DAY...ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
LOCALLY ONSHORE AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM...SO PREFER TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND INDICATE SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES JUST OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE OFFSHORE...INITIALLY ALONG THE
COAST WITHIN NORTHEAST FLOW...BEFORE SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITHIN THE MODIFYING AIR
MASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SURFACE WAVE WILL ELONGATE AND
SHIFT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS STILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AS
OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS DRIER AIR IN
PLACE. HAVE THUS KEPT LAND AREAS RAIN FREE AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER STEADILY DIMINISHING SKY
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CO-LOCATED SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NE AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME TEMPORARY ZONAL
FLOW OR FLAT RIDGING TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL PROMOTE QUIET
SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...WITH A DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING AIR
MASS TO OCCUR.
AN ABRUPT CHANGE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE POLAR VORTEX MAY BURST INTO THE SCENE DURING MID WEEK. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SOMETIME NEXT WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SPARSE POPS AND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR AND SOME
HINTS OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO FORM.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...UNLESS
ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DECENT WIND SURGE
OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 25-30 KT...HIGHEST IN
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL
MAINLY BE 3-4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND BUILD TO 5-7 FEET
IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. GIVEN BOUNDARY WINDS OF 25-30
KT...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATER THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL END FRIDAY
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND
MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...ONLY A SMALL DEPARTURE COULD GENERATE SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CLEAR SKIES OF THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WAS GRADUALLY BEING MOISTENED BY VIRGA AND SOME SPRINKLES
WERE REPORTED AT THE OFFICE. A BAND OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WERE ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LOW TO MID 60S WERE REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WAS LOCATED THE LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME RASN IN
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SW MN...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE MSAS THE
PRESSURE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. ANALYZING THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGESTS THAT CONSALL AND BCCONSALL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CWA. AS
SUCH THE BEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THAT THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF BOTH SUGGEST PRECIP WITH
FROPA. A DECENT RADAR ECHO TO THE WEST MAKES ME THINK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY. WITH THE
SPRINKLES EARLIER AND THE HRRR RUNS...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
NEAR MORNING THE CAA PUMPS INTO THE AREA AND LEADS TO COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. IF PRECIP IS FALLING ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE...SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. DECIDED TO ADD SOME RASN IN THOSE COUNTIES AND
EVEN DUBUQUE COUNTY UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TO THE EAST THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND WILL LEAD
TO A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS WI AND IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TOMORROW. MOST
GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 35 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN LATER
IN THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE A MORE VOLATILE TURN DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AM EXPECTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI RIVER
VALLEY...YIELDING LOWS IN THE 22-28 DEGREE RANGE.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATES A WEAK FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ACROSS THE
NORTH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PHASING
ISSUES PERSIST AMONG THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SCENARIO IS LOW. TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF/GEM FAVOR A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MEANS WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND COLDER...WITH A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. PHASING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RESOLVE...AND WITH HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 5 DAYS OUT...WILL NOT
STRAY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY`S
HIGHS IS 45-55...WHICH LEAVES SOME WIGGLE ROOM EITHER WAY. POPS
RANGE FROM LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH...TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THREE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IFR AT DBQ BUT DID NOT JUMP ON IT. WITH THE NW WINDS USUALLY SEE
CEILINGS LIFTING. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NW TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LAST IS THE
CHANCE OF RAIN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS BUT
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DOES OCCUR
SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT CID AND DBQ NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AS SW WINDS AND RATHER CLEAR SKIES ARE LEADING TO A WARM UP. AS A
RESULT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA A FEW
DEGREES. AS A RESULT RH VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.
ALSO CLEANED UP THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND USED THE TIMING TOOL
TO COME UP WITH SKY GRIDS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR AND RUC
MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT. NEED TO LOOK AT THE POPS AND
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. HRRR HAS LIGHT RAIN CWA WIDE...NOT JUMPING ON
THAT YET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
LARGE SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DENSE CI COVERING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND SE U.S. TUESDAY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS HAD
BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBTLE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTH...WITH SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS TOUCHING THE 30 MARK AS OF 2
AM. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN ADVANCING DECK OF MID CLOUDS WITH
THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER MAKER IN THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AT 06Z SUGGESTED THE 00Z NAM/WRF
WAS VERIFYING BEST WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MT.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...DRIVEN BY THE 150KT JET ANALYZED
TOPPING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AT 00Z. THIS SENDS THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEAST...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING THE CENTER PASSING NEAR
LA CROSSE AROUND 00Z...REACHING AROUND CENTRAL LAKE MI TOWARD 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE GULF CUTOFF
AND ONLY A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND THEN IN THE WRAP-AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW AND AXIS
OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MAINTAINED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...THE EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TODAY AND BECOME REINFORCED BY DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD
OF THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM. RESULTING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO LIMIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A MILD DAY FOR NOVEMBER.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN THUS LIMITED TO THE MID 50S NORTH...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY TOUCH THE LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES
NORTHEAST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BRISK NW WINDS OVER
ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WILL KEEP A
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT AS MODELS HAVE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH CRASHING THERMAL PROFILES...CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA AT SUNRISE WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. THE STRONGER FORCING IS EXITING THE AREA AT SUNRISE SO THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIMITED.
STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
SECOND STORM SYSTEM.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN
AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS ONLY AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH LOW...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX TO
DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
SATURDAY ON...
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM.
MODEL CONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF STORM SYSTEM THREE HAS BEEN
LOW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO MOVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OVER
TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF
COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION. IF THE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PANS OUT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RESPECTIVELY. COLDER AIR BEING
PULLED DOWN BEHIND STORM SYSTEM THREE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE STILL WARM GROUND
WILL CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING ON TUESDAY WOULD CAUSE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE BACK TO A COLD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THREE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IFR AT DBQ BUT DID NOT JUMP ON IT. WITH THE NW WINDS USUALLY SEE
CEILINGS LIFTING. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NW TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LAST IS THE
CHANCE OF RAIN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS BUT
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DOES OCCUR
SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT CID AND DBQ NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1052 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AS SW WINDS AND RATHER CLEAR SKIES ARE LEADING TO A WARM UP. AS A
RESULT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA A FEW
DEGREES. AS A RESULT RH VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.
ALSO CLEANED UP THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND USED THE TIMING TOOL
TO COME UP WITH SKY GRIDS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR AND RUC
MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT. NEED TO LOOK AT THE POPS AND
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. HRRR HAS LIGHT RAIN CWA WIDE...NOT JUMPING ON
THAT YET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
LARGE SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DENSE CI COVERING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND SE U.S. TUESDAY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS HAD
BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBTLE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTH...WITH SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS TOUCHING THE 30 MARK AS OF 2
AM. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN ADVANCING DECK OF MID CLOUDS WITH
THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER MAKER IN THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AT 06Z SUGGESTED THE 00Z NAM/WRF
WAS VERIFYING BEST WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MT.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...DRIVEN BY THE 150KT JET ANALYZED
TOPPING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AT 00Z. THIS SENDS THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEAST...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING THE CENTER PASSING NEAR
LA CROSSE AROUND 00Z...REACHING AROUND CENTRAL LAKE MI TOWARD 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE GULF CUTOFF
AND ONLY A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND THEN IN THE WRAP-AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW AND AXIS
OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MAINTAINED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...THE EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TODAY AND BECOME REINFORCED BY DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD
OF THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM. RESULTING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO LIMIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A MILD DAY FOR NOVEMBER.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN THUS LIMITED TO THE MID 50S NORTH...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY TOUCH THE LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES
NORTHEAST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BRISK NW WINDS OVER
ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WILL KEEP A
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT AS MODELS HAVE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH CRASHING THERMAL PROFILES...CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA AT SUNRISE WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. THE STRONGER FORCING IS EXITING THE AREA AT SUNRISE SO THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIMITED.
STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
SECOND STORM SYSTEM.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN
AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS ONLY AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH LOW...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX TO
DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
SATURDAY ON...
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM.
MODEL CONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF STORM SYSTEM THREE HAS BEEN
LOW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO MOVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OVER
TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF
COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION. IF THE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PANS OUT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RESPECTIVELY. COLDER AIR BEING
PULLED DOWN BEHIND STORM SYSTEM THREE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE STILL WARM GROUND
WILL CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING ON TUESDAY WOULD CAUSE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE BACK TO A COLD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A PROB30
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THE DBQ TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS. DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CIGS WELL INTO VFR THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT AT
DBQ...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE BROUGHT IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME
WEST BY TONIGHT...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY FROM
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING AN OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN CIGS HAVE
LIFTED BACK TO VFR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT CMX WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW INTO THE
KEWEENAW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY IWD AND
SAW WED EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CIGS MAY AGAIN DROP TOWARD
MVFR...MAINLY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL EXIT NE AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS SINKS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. EXPECT THE
LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND SHIFT E
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON THURSDAY WHILE
FURTHER DEEPENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MANITOBA AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NW GALES TO
35KTS OVER N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1208 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN CIGS HAVE
LIFTED BACK TO VFR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT CMX WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW INTO THE
KEWEENAW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY IWD AND
SAW WED EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CIGS MAY AGAIN DROP TOWARD
MVFR...MAINLY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING AS MUCH COLDER
AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR NW GALES OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALE LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
919 AM MST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING SE
THROUGH ROSEBUD...TREASURE...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES PER
RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS WERE DUE TO LINGERING DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER
LEVEL JET/S LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS SHOWED THE SHOWERS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON NW
SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES. LIMITED MIXING WAS OCCURRING
OVER THE E ZONES...BUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WERE FAIRLY STRONG
AND CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS THERE. MODELS SHOWED THE WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED
ON MIXING ON BUFKIT. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND
DUE TO MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING MID LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS. GAP FLOW WINDS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PASS SEVERAL
HOURS AS PRESSURE RISES TAKING PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS ORIENTATION IS ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. THE THREAT FOR ADVISORY
WINDS HAS ENDED AND HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE. EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BOUNCE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AND A FEW GUST TO 50
MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...THEN DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TODAY
AS MIXING WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A FEW GUST OF 45 TO 50 MPH
EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTA`S BORDER.
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED POPS EAST OF BILLINGS
FOR THIS MORNING BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY FOR DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS MORE SHORT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AGAIN AND GAP FLOW WINDS WILL BE
DEVELOPING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE GUST TO 50 MPH BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
FAR WESTERN ZONES AS JET DIVERGENCE/QG FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING IN. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING AND
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR WEST
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD FALL...THE MESSAGE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR DOWNTICK IN TEMPERATURES COME
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL DOMINATE THE LANDSCAPE AS
STRONG ENERGY IS FORCED INTO THE REGION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS IMMENSE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN US...THUS CIRCULATING SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM ALL OF
THIS WILL BE RAPIDLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE THE PROSPECT
OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
CONVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND -16 C OVER A BROAD AREA OF SE MONTANA.
FURTHER...BOTH MEX AND EC GUIDANCE ARE HINTING AT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S IN BILLINGS...AND MUCH COLDER AT EASTERN LOCATIONS BY
TUESDAY.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS
FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORESO WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAN
WITH THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL. ALSO OF NOTE...UPPED POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS AS WELL AS AMPLE MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS...AND MAYBE THE FIRST PLAINS SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON. STAY TUNED. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE A GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
LIVINGSTON AND MILES CITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN
SHERIDAN AND MILES CITY. THESE WILL BE VERY LIGHT POP UP SHOWERS
THAT WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 035/064 045/058 032/059 039/057 034/040 019/036
1/N 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 33/W 21/B
LVM 058 035/062 042/055 030/057 037/053 034/037 019/037
1/N 00/N 22/W 10/B 12/W 43/W 21/B
HDN 061 030/065 039/058 029/060 034/058 030/040 019/038
1/N 00/B 13/W 21/B 12/W 43/W 31/B
MLS 055 029/060 041/055 028/054 031/051 030/039 018/032
2/W 00/B 02/W 21/B 12/W 33/W 21/B
4BQ 056 028/063 039/056 028/055 032/055 031/039 016/032
2/W 00/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 33/W 21/B
BHK 050 027/055 037/052 027/049 029/046 027/038 017/027
1/N 00/B 12/W 11/B 12/W 33/W 21/B
SHR 057 029/064 036/057 029/059 031/059 031/032 020/037
1/N 00/B 03/W 31/U 11/B 33/W 31/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO
HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL.
EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW
MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR
SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS
FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS
OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST
FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY
COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS
WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA
FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL
PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE
CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND
ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND
NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND
ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH PEAK GUST POTENTIAL OF 35KTS ACROSS
NORTH WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TERMINALS BELOW 10KTS AFTER 06Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WIND
SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A KVTN TO KLBF LINE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
SOLID AGREEMENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO
HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL.
EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW
MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR
SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS
FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS
OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST
FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY
COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS
WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA
FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL
PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE
CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND
ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND
NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND
ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY 16Z WIND WILL BECOME 30013G21KT AND
INCREASE TO 31024G33KT AFTER 18Z. WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO
HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL.
EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW
MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR
SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS
FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS
OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST
FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY
COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS
WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA
FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL
PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE
CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND
ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND
NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND
ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
17Z WDNESDAY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST (300-330) 12-14G19-22KT
AND INCREASE TO 20-25G28-34KT BY 19Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING..WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH INITIALLY LAGGED BEHIND A PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE AND BAND OF SHOWERS...REALLY MADE A PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 7PM. A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
LEAD BAND...BUT LACK OF GOOD INSTABILITY HAS KEPT EVERYTHING FAIRLY
WEAK DESPITE 120-150M HEIGHT FALLS AND A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD.
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...MOSTLY 25-35KT...HAVE COME WITH THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY...THE FRONT IS NEARING KFAY/KCTZ AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA
BEFORE 04Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS WITH POPS ENDING AFTER 05Z WHEN THE 850MB FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THE AREA. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS ONE LAST AREA OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED MIXING WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...STRONGEST THROUGH 06Z. COLD ADVECTION AND POST-
FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES AREN`T ESPECIALLY STRONG..BUT WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:
DRY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL HAVE THICKNESSES
TO START THE DAY 20-25 METERS BELOW NORMAL...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 7 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UNDER FULL
COMPLIMENTS OF SUN-SHINE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NW PIEDMONT TO
LOWER-MID 60S SE. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MIN TEMPERATURES 30-35.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS
THE AREA AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WILL BE DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE NEWD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SE
U.S. WHILE THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WIL RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE COAST...A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS
WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM S/W ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY WILL AID TO PUSH THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER OFFSHORE...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL....RANGING 55-60 SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MID-UPPER
30S SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...S/W RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SE U.S. IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MODEST WARMING TREND TO
START THE WORK WEEK. WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 60-LOWER 60S...AND CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65-70 ON
TUESDAY.
THE DEEP LOW WILL CROSS THE GRAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MID
WEEK...DRAGGING THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO OCCUR PRIOR TO
NOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS BUT WLY FLOW PROCEEDING
THE FRONT MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIP
GENERATION. IF MODEL THICKNESSES VERIFY THURSDAY...MAX TEMPS MAY END
UP BEING NO WARMER THAN THE MID-UPPER 40S WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CROSSING
CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD... BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT (BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AT KRDU AND RWI). STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS... ALONG
WITH MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT HAS CURRENTLY PUSHED TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF KGSO AND KINT... AND SHOULD BE NEAR KRDU BY AROUND 00-
01Z... THEN KRWI AND KFAY BETWEEN 01-02Z. STRONG WIND GUST TO 40 KTS
OUT OF THE WNW OR NW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME BY 05/06Z OR
SO... BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...
WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE... DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL/WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID
ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE
LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO
AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX
TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.........................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH
OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC
REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD
10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND
BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10
KTS...WHICH DO ANTICIPATE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MASK THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AND THUS HAVE KEPT AS TEMPO MVFR ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCT/BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED INTO CURRENT TAF.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SFC
HIGH TO PULL OUT FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT TO YIELD A SSE-SSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...POSSIBLY 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN RESULTING FROM A
WEAK SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SSW-SW WINDS
TONIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT YIELDING 10-15 KT THRUOUT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AOB 2 FT THIS AFTN...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT...AND
UP TO 4 FT THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AN ESE 0.5 TO 1.5 FOOT GROUND
SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY
TO A DOMINATING 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT
RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST
PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5
FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX
FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND
FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
DICTATED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHTER... 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1113 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID
ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE
LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO
AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX
TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH
OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC
REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD
10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING
WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KCRE/KMYR ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS...BECOMING SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING
HORUS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THU MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR
UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SFC
HIGH TO PULL OUT FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT TO YIELD A SSE-SSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...POSSIBLY 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN RESULTING FROM A
WEAK SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SSW-SW WINDS
TONIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT YIELDING 10-15 KT THRUOUT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AOB 2 FT THIS AFTN...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT...AND
UP TO 4 FT THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AN ESE 0.5 TO 1.5 FOOT GROUND
SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY
TO A DOMINATING 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT
RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST
PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5
FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX
FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND
FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
DICTATED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHTER... 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID
ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE
LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO
AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX
TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH
OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC
REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD
10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING
WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KCRE/KMYR ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS...BECOMING SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING
HORUS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THU MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR
UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT
RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST
PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5
FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX
FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND
FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DICTATED
BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT REMAIN
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER...
10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING SECOND WAVE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF
FARGO..OUT OF THE AREA AND THE END OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. OVERALL THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN DECENT TODAY UNTIL 18Z AND 19Z
RUNS...WHICH KEPT HIGH POPS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOO LONG.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PULL THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER THE AREA INCREASES. A VORT
MAX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS HELPING GENERATE THE SECOND
WAVE OF PRECIP IN E CNTRL ND...WHICH CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER
BASICALLY THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BENSON
COUNTY ND TO WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY MN WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AROUND WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ELEVATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFT 03Z IN
EASTERN ND AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z...THUS EXPECT
PRECIP TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WINDS/MIXING SHOULD BE LIGHT...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
RATHER COOL...IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CNTRL
DAKOTAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS LIGHT MIXING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER WILL SPREAD PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INDICATING DRIZZLE
AS H700 LEVEL IS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER BY 15Z PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MODEST
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER AN EARLY HIGH AROUND 50. COOLER AIR
PULLED DOWN FROM CANADA MAY HELP TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...WINDS/MIXING DECREASE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...BRING DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA ARE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST
THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR SAGS AND HOW FAST. FOR SATURDAY THE INITIAL
BLAST WILL ONLY GRAZE OUR AREA...WITH 140KT TO 15KT 250MB JET OVER
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
FOR SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH...AS WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT. MODELS BREAK
OUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NORTH OF THIS ZONE. BASED ON 925MB
- 850 THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS LIGHT RAIN IS BEST BET.
FOR MONDAY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
LOWERING THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ON TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE...SIMILARLY PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF /
GFS/DGEX/GEM-NH...DROPS ACROSS THE CWFA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROP
TO 510DAM OR LOWER. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...925 TEMPS AROUND -10C
AND ARCTIC SCUD SUSPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR 0F QUITE POSSIBLE.
CALMER...DRIER AND UNSEASONALLY COLD WEATHER ENDS THIS PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AREAS OF -SN AND -RA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE KDVL AND
KGFK THROUGH 00Z...AND KFAR AREAS THROUGH 03Z. WINDS NORTH AROUND
10KTS TURNING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFT 00Z. MVFR WITH LCL IFR
CIG/VSBY IN -SN THROUGH 00Z BEFORE MVFR OCNLY IFR CIGS AFT 00Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL MOSTLY WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...MVFR-IFR
CLOUDS REMAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM SHERWOOD AND
BOTTINEAU SOUTHEAST THROUGH RUGBY AND HARVEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID DEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
03 UTC. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID
GET A REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM ROLLA THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN STRONG
SUBSIDENT FLOW. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. DID SEE A GUST TO 53 MPH AT GLEN ULLIN THIS
PAST HOUR. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM CST BUT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CENTRAL/5 MOUNTAIN. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER
WISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO A COLDER REGIME SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING LAKE WINNIPEG BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...AND ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY NOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS
AT 45 KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH 35 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 45 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON
BAY LOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE...WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY FROM THE 30S AND 40S...TO HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS DRY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM KISN AND KMOT...SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH KBIS
AND KJMS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS AT
KDIK IN A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AT KDIK AND KBIS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
123 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
SFC LOW NOW OVER VCNTY OF WHEATON SD...AND RAIN IS BASICALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I 94 IN SOUTHEASTERN ND THROUGH GRANT COUNTY MN. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF W CNTRL MN. LIGHTER SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF SW MB INTO NE ND...BUT THIS WILL BRING VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
CONSIDERING THINNER CLOUDS IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID
30S (ANYTHING ADDITIONAL BY DEVILS LAKE SHOULD MELT ON IMPACT). SO
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTERNOON WILL BE TRENDING DOWN POPS
OUT OF W CNTRL MN AND ACCOUNTING FOR HIGH POP AND LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN THE NORTHWEST. 17Z HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES A MID
AFTERNOON BREAK TO THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS FOR
POPS AND WX TYPE. LATEST HRRR 925 MB 0 DEG LINE IS A REASONABLE
DELINEATOR FOR SNOW/RAIN AND WILL USE IT AS GUIDANCE FOR WX TYPE.
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SNOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF I 94 AND RAIN
SOUTH...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG
THE I 94 CORRIDOR ITSELF. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FELL OVER DEVILS LAKE
THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGIN TO MELT ON STREETS...AS WEB CAMS
WITHIN THE CITY ARE SHOWING WET ROADS. THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHWESTERN MB THAT WILL COME THROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. KEY AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND WHERE LATEST NAM AND RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A
BIT HEAVIER PRECIP (NOT MODERATE SNOW RATES...HOWEVER) ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL EXPAND INTO WEST
CNTRL MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH STILL A COUPLE OF INCHES
POSSIBLE BUT RATES NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS
HOLDING OFF PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO KEEPING RATES IN
CHECK IN AREAS OF CURRENT SNOW ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THIS ALL
REFLECTS PREV FCST THINKING WELL AND AT THE CURRENT TIME...DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE TOTALS IN THE THREE TO FIVE INCH RANGE WARRANTING AN
ADVISORY. THOSE AMOUNTS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED AND JUST NORTH OF
THE I 94 CORRIDOR IN E CNTRL ND AND W CNTRL MN...OR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND WADENA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
SURFACE LOW IS WEST OF JAMESTOWN...HEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY (SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA). LATEST
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC FIELDS...AND
INITIALIZING BEST WITH QPF AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TO THIS SOLUTION...WHICH SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH...AND INCREASED QPF TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEBCAMS FROM THE SNOW AREA INDICATE
ACCUMULATION IN THE GRASSY AREAS...WITH MOSTLY WET ROADS.
ANTICIPATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (EVEN
IF SNOWRATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER). THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
WHERE/IF SNOWRATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM ROAD
SURFACES...AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MESSAGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN GRASSY
AREAS...LESS ON ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TODAY...MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW FROM WILLISTON TO WAHPETON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND UNORGANIZED
BANDING. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
BANDING TO SET UP...AND STUCK WITH QPF ALONG THE FAVORED AREA
(DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO TO WADENA) OF 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES. USING THE
RAP 925MB 0F ISOTHERM FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE WORKING
WELL (ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DUAL POL PRODUCTS).
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM RUGBY INDICATES
FALLING SNOW...BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. GIVEN THE
WARM ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNLESS SNOWRATES ARE HEAVIER. THUS...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF
1-3 INCHES WILL BE MAINLY FOR GRASSY SURFACES...WITH LESS
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE ROADWAYS. IF THIS IS THE CASE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH IF MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION...BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH
WILL AFFECT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING AND MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP LATE THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN PRECIP IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. USING MODEL 925MB
TEMPS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY
BEGIN AND END AS SNOW).
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPS TO COME DURING EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ABUNDANTLY COLD 850 MB DROPPING TO
-15/-20C BY MON AND TUE. NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER OR HYBRID TYPE
OF SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS PREFERS A MT-SD-IA TRACK WITH
ECMWF NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE POINTS TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AREAS OF -SN AND -RA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE
KDVL...KGFK AND KFAR AREAS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS LGT NORTH AROUND 10KTS
TUNRING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFT 00Z. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIG/VSBY
IN -SN THROUGH 00Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS POST 00Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...ME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1026 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS FOR
POPS AND WX TYPE. LATEST HRRR 925 MB 0 DEG LINE IS A REASONABLE
DELINEATOR FOR SNOW/RAIN AND WILL USE IT AS GUIDANCE FOR WX TYPE.
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SNOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF I 94 AND RAIN
SOUTH...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG
THE I 94 CORRIDOR ITSELF. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FELL OVER DEVILS LAKE
THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGIN TO MELT ON STREETS...AS WEB CAMS
WITHIN THE CITY ARE SHOWING WET ROADS. THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHWESTERN MB THAT WILL COME THROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. KEY AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND WHERE LATEST NAM AND RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A
BIT HEAVIER PRECIP (NOT MODERATE SNOW RATES...HOWEVER) ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL EXPAND INTO WEST
CNTRL MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH STILL A COUPLE OF INCHES
POSSIBLE BUT RATES NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS
HOLDING OFF PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO KEEPING RATES IN
CHECK IN AREAS OF CURRENT SNOW ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THIS ALL
REFLECTS PREV FCST THINKING WELL AND AT THE CURRENT TIME...DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE TOTALS IN THE THREE TO FIVE INCH RANGE WARRANTING AN
ADVISORY. THOSE AMOUNTS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED AND JUST NORTH OF
THE I 94 CORRIDOR IN E CNTRL ND AND W CNTRL MN...OR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND WADENA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
SURFACE LOW IS WEST OF JAMESTOWN...HEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY (SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA). LATEST
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC FIELDS...AND
INITIALIZING BEST WITH QPF AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TO THIS SOLUTION...WHICH SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH...AND INCREASED QPF TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEBCAMS FROM THE SNOW AREA INDICATE
ACCUMULATION IN THE GRASSY AREAS...WITH MOSTLY WET ROADS.
ANTICIPATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (EVEN
IF SNOWRATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER). THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
WHERE/IF SNOWRATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM ROAD
SURFACES...AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MESSAGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN GRASSY
AREAS...LESS ON ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TODAY...MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW FROM WILLISTON TO WAHPETON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND UNORGANIZED
BANDING. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
BANDING TO SET UP...AND STUCK WITH QPF ALONG THE FAVORED AREA
(DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO TO WADENA) OF 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES. USING THE
RAP 925MB 0F ISOTHERM FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE WORKING
WELL (ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DUAL POL PRODUCTS).
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM RUGBY INDICATES
FALLING SNOW...BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. GIVEN THE
WARM ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNLESS SNOWRATES ARE HEAVIER. THUS...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF
1-3 INCHES WILL BE MAINLY FOR GRASSY SURFACES...WITH LESS
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE ROADWAYS. IF THIS IS THE CASE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH IF MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION...BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH
WILL AFFECT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING AND MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP LATE THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN PRECIP IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. USING MODEL 925MB
TEMPS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY
BEGIN AND END AS SNOW).
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPS TO COME DURING EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ABUNDANTLY COLD 850 MB DROPPING TO
-15/-20C BY MON AND TUE. NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER OR HYBRID TYPE
OF SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS PREFERS A MT-SD-IA TRACK WITH
ECMWF NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE POINTS TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF KGFK...KTVF...AND
KBJI. THESE SITES MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS...BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM KDVL THROUGH
KFAR...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT PULLING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD OVER THE SE HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
IMPROVING MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND PRECIP.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. WILL PULL THE THREAT FOR
SHRA A LITTLE FURTHER NW BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE NW AND AROUND
ERI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY TONIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE
NW...THE INCREASING COMBINATION OF FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP MAY
STILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK. GFS/MAV
LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RUC RUN SO WILL
UNDERCUT MAV POPS SOME.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SEE NO
REASON WHY WIDESPREAD RAIN WON`T OCCUR THRUT THE CWA THU INTO THU
NIGHT. INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL BY THU SO COULD BE SOME THUNDER
FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH THU NIGHT FOR ENOUGH WET
SNOW TO OCCUR TO LEAD TO A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
AREAS. LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING
UNLESS THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRI SO WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN
THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT WELL INTO FRI NIGHT SO SOME LIGHT SHSN
MAY LINGER BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP THREAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER ON
SAT. THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER FRI NIGHT SO SOME
CONCERN THAT FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR.
BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT LATER
ON SAT SO THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF AT LEAST SCT SHRA WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT SEEING
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGEOVER TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAT
NIGHT. MAYBE SOME ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE WORST THAT
COULD HAPPEN.
EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...TEMPS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY CAN
REBOUND ENOUGH TO EVEN GET BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES EAST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY MORE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OTHER AREAS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT. AN UPPER JET WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CIRRUS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...ERIE COUNTY PA COULD HAVE BROKEN
CEILINGS NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TIMING
IS AN ISSUE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT
NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROF NOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD WITH
UNSETTLED WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOT GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THEN YET
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1059 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING
THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CREATE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS PASSING DURING THE
WEEKEND AND ANOTHER BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
STRENGTHEN QUICKLY /TO NEAR 990 MB/ AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE NRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH JUST SOME BRIEF...ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SUSQ VALLEY.
INCREASINGLY COLD...AND WELL-ALIGNED/DEEP NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS TWD DAYBREAK FRIDAY FROM KBFD...SOUTH TO KFIG AND KJST.
A STRONG SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL CROSS WRN NY STATE AND PASS OVER
NRN AND ERN PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS DYNAMIC TROUGH
WILL CREATE PLENTY OF LIFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY WHEN PULLING MSTR
OFF LK ONT AND ERN LK ERIE. TEMP PROFILES OFF THE LATEST HOST OF
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...HRRR AND RAP ALL INDICATE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR EVEN AS LATE AS
SUNRISE ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS /ESP ACROSS
SOMERSET COUNTY/ WILL COOL OFF A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE LOWER
ELEVS AND FEEL THAT SOME SNOW WILL MIX IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LIGHT ACCUMS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH.
LOW TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY BRINGS THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WITH 8H TEMPS DIPPING
TO AROUND -10C IN THE N AND TO ABOUT -6C IN THE SRN COS. THE TEMP
PROFILE AT BFD LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW FALLING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT UNLESS IT IS REALLY COMING DOWN...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
MAKE IT STICK. WILL STILL MENTION MINOR ACCUMS DUE TO THE
PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD IN-CLOUD TEMPS AND MARGINAL
SFC TEMPS. THE LAURELS HAVE A GOOD HURON CONNECTION SETTING UP.
BUT THE INITIAL TEMP PROFILE IS WARMER THERE THAN THE NRN MTNS.
SO...MINOR ACCUMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THERE BUT IT MAY ONLY DIP DOWN
TO 1500FT OR SO. WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE WITH THIS AND JUST PAINT
A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUM WITH A SLIGHT BIT MORE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVS OF SRN SOMERSET CO. MAXES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE U30S N
AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SERN CITIES. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
NICELY FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME FRIDAY NIGHT - BUT CLOUD UP AGAIN
OVER THE NWRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AS HIGH/MID CLOUDS
MOVE IN. WHILE THE TEMPS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER A BIT IN THE
NW...AND PERHAPS EVEN RISE A LITTLE BEFORE SAT MORNING...IT SHOULD
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE EVERYBODY WILL FREEZE. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE AREA AND ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF THE POPULATION OF THE CWA. THE ISSUANCE OF
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAS ALREADY BEEN STOPPED DUE TO THE LATER
THAN NORMAL FIRST FREEZE IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO NO
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED UNTIL SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE AND COLDER WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE CONUS. SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING THE STATE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...AIDED BY SRN
STREAM ENERGY...WILL LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE
OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF
PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUE...WITH SFC LOW FORMATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS PA
ON WED BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST SIG PCPN EVENT OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PA WILL TRANSFER
IT/S REMAINING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER NEW ENG
TONIGHT. THE RESULTING NW FLOW WILL DRAW DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING
FLYING CONDS INTO EASTERN PA OVERNIGHT. AS OF 03Z...IFR VSBYS
STILL NOTED AT KLNS. HOWEVER...LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA SUGGESTS CONDS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THERE SOMETIME IN THE 04Z-07Z. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE FORCED TO ASCEND THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PRODUCE
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST OVERNIGHT.
ALL MDL DATA IS POINTING TOWARD IMPROVING CIGS ACROSS THE W MTNS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY BY AFTN. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF COASTAL LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND
30KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN HOURS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH. DIMINISHING WIND IS
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A
COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD EDGE IS VISIBLE LOW ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON OUT THE
WINDOW...DESPITE BEING ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY LOOKING FROM ABOVE.
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE EC COS AND MAY DISSOLVE THERE WHILE
TOTAL CLEARING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE SC/SWRN COS. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW
OVER MN/WI/LWR MI. MOISTURE CONTINUES RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE
OLD COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO
THE LWR MS VALLEY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER LATER TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW GOES OVER THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH A BIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN
TIER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO MEASURABLE
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AROUND 04Z. NAM IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
BUT SREF MEAN TIMING IS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FCST. THE RAIN MAY NOT
REACH THE FAR NRN STRIPE OF COS BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL GET REALLY
CLOSE. TEMPS MAY AGAIN HOLD VERY STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVE IN/THROUGH. AN INITIAL FALL TO
NEAR 40F IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO THE NORTH AND BROADEN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER
SC PA DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ENOUGH SUN MAKE POKE THROUGH
TO MAKE SCT SHOWERS FILL THE HOLE BACK IN. THE STABILITY LOOKS
HIGH...BUT FOR THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS IN THE AFTN WHERE NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERATE THE MEAGER-EST OF CAPES AND SOME MID- LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THE ONLY WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY IS ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THEREFORE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE
IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. QPF NOT WIDELY DISPARATE AND A
GENERAL 0.3 TO 0.8 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE. EVEN AN INCH WILL PRODUCE ALMOST NO
RIVER RESPONSE. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
RISE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING
THE STATE FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL
LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT
REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE
SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME CALM AT
MOST PLACES EARLY TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT NOW DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD A SHIELD OF
RAIN AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN SITES AND BY 09-10Z IN UNV AND IPT.
MVFR AT FIRST WILL DROP TO IFR IN BOTH CIGS AND VISBY A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE RAIN STARTS...BY 12Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IFR AND A
FEW COULD BE LIFR. BFD SHOULD BE THE LAST TERMINAL TO DROP
TO/BELOW MVFR...WHICH SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THURS. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND SCATTER THE
RAIN INTO SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NWRLY FLOW THEN KICKS IN AND UPSLOPE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH/TURN OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY IN THE LAURELS AND NC MTS /JST AND
BFD/. OTHER TERMINALS MAY HAVE ISOLD SHRA IN THE POST-STORM
FLOW...BUT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THERE WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CIG
HEIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THURS AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY 10-15KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. PM SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WRN 1/3 INTO SAT NGT. GUSTY CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A
COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD EDGE IS VISIBLE LOW ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON OUT THE
WINDOW...DESPITE BEING ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY LOOKING FROM ABOVE.
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE EC COS AND MAY DISSOLVE THERE WHILE
TOTAL CLEARING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE SC/SWRN COS. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW
OVER MN/WI/LWR MI. MOISTURE CONTINUES RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE
OLD COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO
THE LWR MS VALLEY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER LATER TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW GOES OVER THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH A BIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN
TIER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO MEASURABLE
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AROUND 04Z. NAM IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
BUT SREF MEAN TIMING IS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FCST. THE RAIN MAY NOT
REACH THE FAR NRN STRIPE OF COS BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL GET REALLY
CLOSE. TEMPS MAY AGAIN HOLD VERY STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVE IN/THROUGH. AN INITIAL FALL TO
NEAR 40F IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO THE NORTH AND BROADEN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER
SC PA DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ENOUGH SUN MAKE POKE THROUGH
TO MAKE SCT SHOWERS FILL THE HOLE BACK IN. THE STABILITY LOOKS
HIGH...BUT FOR THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS IN THE AFTN WHERE NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERATE THE MEAGER-EST OF CAPES AND SOME MID- LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THE ONLY WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY IS ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THEREFORE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE
IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. QPF NOT WIDELY DISPARATE AND A
GENERAL 0.3 TO 0.8 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE. EVEN AN INCH WILL PRODUCE ALMOST NO
RIVER RESPONSE. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
RISE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QPF...HAVE TRENDED QPF UPWARD...BUT
CONSIDERING SOME VARIANCES IN MODEL QPF...AND MESOSCALE
PROCESSES...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING OF THE WAVE...AND
ORIENTATION...HAVE RANGED FROM A 0.20 IN THE NW TO ALMOST 3/4 INCH
IN THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ANY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED SHOWERS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE INCREASED CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY... AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD INDICATING CHC POPS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR SETTING THE STAGE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME CALM AT
MOST PLACES EARLY TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT NOW DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD A SHIELD OF
RAIN AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN SITES AND BY 09-10Z IN UNV AND IPT.
MVFR AT FIRST WILL DROP TO IFR IN BOTH CIGS AND VISBY A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE RAIN STARTS...BY 12Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IFR AND A
FEW COULD BE LIFR. BFD SHOULD BE THE LAST TERMINAL TO DROP
TO/BELOW MVFR...WHICH SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THURS. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND SCATTER THE
RAIN INTO SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NWRLY FLOW THEN KICKS IN AND UPSLOPE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH/TURN OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY IN THE LAURELS AND NC MTS /JST AND
BFD/. OTHER TERMINALS MAY HAVE ISOLD SHRA IN THE POST-STORM
FLOW...BUT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THERE WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CIG
HEIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THURS AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY 10-15KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. PM SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WRN 1/3 INTO SAT NGT. GUSTY CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
951 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW
A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWRN
CANADA...WHICH WAS SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TNGT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT TNGT THERE WILL ONLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NWRN SD INTO THE BLKHLS AND EXTREME NERN WY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WINDS OF 35-45 KT...RESULTING IN WIND ADVY CRITERIA
ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN SD PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECENT LACK OF
PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DUST
POLLUTION ALERT FOR WEST RAPID CITY. THE MAIN SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES WILL BE ACROSS ND...AND THE TIMING OF THE MAXIMUM BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND
WRNG CRITERIA WINDS TO BE ACHIEVED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SUNDAY
LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE NICE WITH
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA WITH SUBSEQUENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN...BUT
THEN WARMUP APPEARS AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF
RUNS INSIST ON MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK AND SOME GROUND-WHITENING SNOW
FOR MONDAY. 12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR OR
SNOW...SHUNTING CORE OF COLD AIR EAST OF CWA WITH UPPER TROUGH MUCH
FURTHER EAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COLDER THAN OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT
WARMER THAN ECMWF. THICKNESS DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY FOR CONTRASTING
RUNS ABOUT 250M. HAVE FOLLOWED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW UP IN LATER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ TO 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ043-046-047-049.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ013-014-025-
026-031-032-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
850 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO LOWER POPS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE
UPSTREAM PRECIP...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE
850 MB THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION. WITH
A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING...THERE WILL NOT BE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS DEPSITE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK...BUT WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
922 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...WITH 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING WSW FLOW ALOFT.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT REACHED MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS OF
MID MORNING...SO THE SLOW TIMING IN OUR FORECAST GRIDS LOOKS ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME. NE TN AND SW VA NOT LIKELY TO MEASURE ANY
RAINFALL UNTIL EARLY EVENING...ALTHO RAP MODEL DOES SPREAD LIGHT QPF
ACROSS SW VA BY 18Z TO 19Z.
CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE AND CONTINUES TO THICKEN...SO HOURLY AND
MAX TEMP GRIDS MAY NEED A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. OTHERWISE...HIGH RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES FOR
THOSE AREAS THURSDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 55 65 39 / 50 90 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 52 62 38 / 50 90 40 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 53 61 37 / 60 90 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 48 61 36 / 30 90 40 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
EXIST ABOUT A 10-20 PCT CHANCE OF MVFR DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AT KLBB AND PERHAPS 20 PCT RISK OF IFR AT KCDS TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THOUGH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PULL QUITE A BIT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE OVER THE REGION WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE VERY
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. HARDEST PART WAS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WERE
CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER OUT WAY TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF
BOTH KEEP A THICK LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING/EVOLVING...OPTED TO GO WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE HAD A FREEZE WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME READINGS AT
33 DEGREES AROUND FRIONA AND MULESHOE SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT
FEEL THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED FOR NOW.
WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT BACKWARDS
FROM OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH AS INSOLATION IS USED TO EVAPORATE
ANY SURFACE MOISTURE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SO NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A LIGHT WIND ALL DAY AND
LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM MORE
THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS PROVIDING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WILL SHEAR OUT
WHILST SKIRTING SSE TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEREFORE START OFF DRY AS AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PROMOTES DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE DRY
COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW
NIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR/AT THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SFC RIDGE WITH HINTS OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LEADING TO A PROJECTED STRONGER
AND BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/...IN COMPARISON TO TOMORROW
NIGHT/S FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL BRING ABOUT
THE RETURN OF BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...HENCE REBOUNDING
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS COLD FRONT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...WITH CURRENT
ITERATIONS SHOWING EITHER A STOUT SFC RIDGE DRIVING IN A BREEZY
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE ECMWF/ OR A WEAKER
FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE GFS/. A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS APPEARS APPROPRIATE ATTM...THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND BELOW NORM TEMPS ARE VALID.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 36 63 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 61 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 38 59 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 39 60 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 40 59 36 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 59 37 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 42 65 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 62 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 61 40 68 43 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE..
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST VERY QUICKLY AND
WINDS HAVE SHUT DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND ARE BASED AROUND 3.5KFT...TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION WHICH IS IMPEDING THEIR EROSION DESPITE THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. NEARLY EVERY PIECE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CLEARS THEM OUT
OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS TOUGH TO IGNORE. THERE IS A NICE HOLE
DEVELOPING OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
BRINGS THIS SOUTH VERY RAPIDLY AND EXPANDS IT OVER TIME. THIS
OCCURS QUITE FREQUENTLY IN THESE SETUPS. SO...WE MAY ACTUALLY GET
CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FIRST...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE CAUTIOUS WITH ANY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. ANY CLEAR SKIES
WITH THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET VERY QUICKLY.
ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN...THERE IS NO
WAY WE WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
CLOUDS BASED AROUND 3500FT SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATER
TONIGHT...BETWEEN ABOUT 07-09Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. A FAST MOVING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS FOR A TIME AFTER ABOUT 06Z SAT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST QUICKLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND THEREFORE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING. AREA OF HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING
EAST FROM LWR LAKE MI/NE IL. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGD TO SC WI
BY AROUND 12Z WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME EVOLVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. CLEARING LINE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
WI...WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FILLING IN BEHIND THIS AREA THOUGH
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL APPEARANCE. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SCOURING BETWEEN 07 AND 09Z WHILE PURE EXTRAP OF THE PRIMARY BACK EDGE
SUGGESTS 00-03Z FOR SOME CLEARING. WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN THE WAKE
OF THE MAIN BACK EDGE WILL NOT MODIFY THE EVENTUAL LOW TEMPS
..ESPECIALLY WITH RIDGE AXIS/LIGHT WIND REGIME TAKING SHAPE LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR A TIME THEN
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MINNESOTA TOWARDS END OF DAY. 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND HELP TO INCREASE MID DECK
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO GO WITH SOME POPS IN
PARTS OF THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO WISCONSIN. INITIALLY THE STRONG 250 MB JET IS BEHIND THE
TROUGH BUT GRADUALLY INCREASES UPSTREAM SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION SATURDAY. 850/700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. BY THE TIME LOW LEVEL
COOLING TAKES PLACE THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY AND THE FORCING
WEAKENS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A STRONG 150 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST GET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WEAKENS A LITTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITH WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY.
GRADUAL 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 CELSIUS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN...LOW
LEVELS ARE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY LEVELS
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS HAS SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRY.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS BRING A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY. THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE GFS. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW. THE 12Z ECMWF
PUSHES THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MORE TO THE NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDING TO MORE RAIN FAR SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CANADA.
THE 12Z GFS HAS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ON THE 00Z
ECMWF. TEMPERATURES/THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD NORTH
FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES WITH HIGHER PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING EAST. MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT THOUGH PLENTY OF HOLES
UPSTREAM IN NW WI. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR AND START TO BREAK UP A
BIT TONIGHT AS NVA AND DRIER AIR TAKE HOLD. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO MN BY THE END OF FRIDAY. NAM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WAA REGIME PRECIP. WILL
KEEP KMSN DRY THROUGH 18Z AND KMKE DRY THROUGH 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER
EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF 850 WAA.
MARINE...GALE GUSTS HAVE EASED BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THOUGH
WAVE ACTION MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER SO EASE SO WENT WITH SMALL CRAFT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE HEADING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES.
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG OMEGA ABOVE 600 MB...THEY ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB ALONG
INTERSTATE 90. CONSIDERING THE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE 850 MB BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO A HALF INCH/ IN TAYLOR COUNTY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH GENERATES. SOUNDINGS SHOWS
SATURATION ABOVE 750 MB WITH DRY AIR BELOW. DUE TO THIS...IT IS
VERY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER WE WILL GET ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND THEN THIS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A TIGHT
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
THEIR LOCATION OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. WITH THIS LOCATION...THE WEAK TO MODERATE 925 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ITS SNOW TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES. WHILE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...THE ECMWF HAS NOT
BEEN. WHILE IT HAS BEEN SHIFTING THIS BAND NORTH AND SOUTH QUITE
A BIT...IT IS STILL AFFECTING SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
ITS 06.00Z RUN...IT WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT ITS 06.12Z
IS MUCH CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN IS THAT THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA. TOTAL SNOW FROM THE LATEST RUN HAS A 6 TO 9 INCH BAND ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE THE GFS...THE GEM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH IT TRACK NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
/ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ AND THAT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION TO
PUT OUT THIS HEADLINE IS NOT. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOMALOUS COLD 850 MB AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -12 AND -16C AND THE GFS IS RUNNING BETWEEN
-10 TO -14C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 08.00Z.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KRST/KLSE COINCIDENT
WITH BEST FORCING...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT KRST UP TO 25 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE RAP HAS
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS
EVENING AND THEN THIS RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PAINTING A BROAD AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE ARW AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THAT
THE SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. FOR COLLABORATION REASONS...STAYED WITH THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT A BIT CONCERNED THAT THEY MAY BE TOO
HIGH FOR THESE TWO AREAS. MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE
THERE IS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...850 MB QG CONVERGENCE...WEAK
850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED. WET BULB ZEROS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUNDINGS WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR
THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29 MAY BE UP TO AN
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DPROG/DT SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHIFTED THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE COBB DATA FOR KAUW SUGGESTS BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH IN THE NAM AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GFS. MEANWHILE
IN KEAU...THERE IS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EITHER MODEL.
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 05.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A VERY
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE 05.12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GEM HAS NEARLY 0.75 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB AIR
SPILLS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
NAEFS STANDARDIZED 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF ARE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN -12 AND -16C. MEANWHILE THE GFS
HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED
SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND IT
STILL BEING ON DAY 6 AND 7...JUST STAYED WITH THE SUPER BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN INTO THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 20Z.
AS THE LOW SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW AT KRST BY
09Z AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KLSE BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR BY 00-02Z WITH KRST
SLIPPING INTO IFR/LIFR AFTER 03Z. SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS
DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15-30KT RANGE. PLAN ON MVFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE MOSTLY LEVELED
OFF FURTHER WEST. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO THE WAUSAU TO
GREEN BAY AREAS BUT CLOUDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE 29 ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO ENTER NW
WISCONSIN. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AT DULUTH
WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE VILAS COUNTY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. CLOUD
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP TRENDS
ON WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
SPOTTY RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARGUE FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE FURTHER NORTH DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE LOW
OVERCAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TRYING TO TIME THE CLEARING
IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATE...SO THINK
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
LATE AND A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH
AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S
SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
QUICKLY AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
DAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN ZONE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SINCE EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLAKES RIGHT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER
SO LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE TWO TO SEVEN DAY PERIOD OCCURS
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES
IN...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WI. GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS
WHIP THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI IN ABOUT
6-8 HOURS WHILE THE NAM DAWDLES 2-4 HOURS LONGER. OTHER THAN
TIMING...THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...SREF PLUMES
INDICATE ABOUT 0.2" LIQUID ACCUMULATION AT GRB WITH ABOUT 1/2"
SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD ON THURS. WPC 1640Z 2-DAY
WINTER PRECIP HIGHLIGHTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL WI.
ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER LIGHT SHOT OF MIXED PRECIP. FINALLY...A THIRD CLIPPER
APPROACHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
ON ANY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF GENERATES AN IMPRESSIVE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY LATE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
VFR CIGS OF 4000 TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF
A WAUSAU TO IRON MTN LINE AND RAIN OR SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MVL
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A SCATTERED MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
COVER PERSISTENT SINGLE N/S BAND JUST OFF ERN LK MI SHORELINE INTO
NWRN CWA INLAND THROUGH WRN KOS CO IN PRE FIRST PERIOD. SCATTERED
WORDING COMBINED WITH EXPANDED AREA OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WORDING
SHOULD SUFFICE. BLYR FINALLY COOLED FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP
PER KLWA/KSBN AND PUBLIC REPORTS. HOWEVER...THERMAL MODIFICATION
NEAR LAKE AND EPISODIC ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULTIES ESPCLY IN
WEAKER CELLS...SUPPORT MIXED RA/SN WORDING. RUC RAPID REFRESH
INDICATING INLAND PUSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK COINCIDENT WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AS 8H COLD POOL SHUNTED EWD FROM LAKE HURON INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE RETRACTION CLOSER TO
LAKE AND INLAND ACRS SWRN MI/FAR NRN IN...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
TRACE MIXED AMOUNTS BYND 12 UTC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CU RULES SHOULD SUPPORT GENEROUS CU FIELD
ALL BUT FAR SERN QUARTER...MIXING OUT ALL BUT NERN CWA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FORECAST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
LONGWAVE LOSSES AS STRATOCU BREAKS BECOME ENLARGE NEAR SUNUP ALONG
WITH VARIABLE/TEMPERED DAYTIME INSOLATION. THOUGH WITH APPRECIABLE
WAA DISPLACED WELL WEST OF CWA...MORE INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH
CONSERVATIVE/MODEST RECOVERY. WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
ANTICIPATED ALTOCU LEAFING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ASSOCD WITH
50-60 KT JETLET TRACKS EWD THROUGH SRN LWR MI 09-12 UTC ON LEADING
EDGE OF SHARPENING TROF AND ASSOCIATED HFC OF 60-80M/12HR. INITIAL
LARGE SUBCLOUD CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /IN EXCESS OF 100 MB/
SHOULD NEGATE ALL BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR OF HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER CENTROID THAT TRACKS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SRN CAN
TODAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH EARLY
HIGHS FOLLOWED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/LOW LEVEL WAA SUPPORT SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO FRI NIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
...TASTE OF WINTER ON THE WAY...
UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EAST NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROF...GATEWAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN...A FRONTOGENETIC PATTERN
WILL BE SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK
LOW OR SURFACE WAVE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GRADIENT. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OR NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD WEDGE OF COLD AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING FARTHER NORTH. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE NORMALIZED STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS FOR
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS OVER 5 SD...MEANING MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXITS IN BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST RAIN...SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUT FEELING THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARE TOO WARM. ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS...THE
5 PERCENT COLDEST HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT FT WAYNE
ARE 27F TO 33F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR UNDERCUTS SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND SUBSIDENT RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CU FIELD AND LIGHT/BACKING SFC WINDS AS RIDGELINE TRAVERSES EWD
THROUGH NRN IN DURING DAYTIME. SLIGHTLY STRONGER/BACKED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING MID LVL ALTOCU DECK THROUGH EVENING/END OF
FORECAST PD AS PROMINENT SHORTWAVE /CURRENTLY OVR SRN
ALBERTA/SASK/ ENTERS NRN MS VLY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
436 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW NORTH OF
TORONTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY AROUND MID-DAY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND DUAL POL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THE TRANSITION BY AROUND 5 OR 6 AM. IN FACT...IT IS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER WILL SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN BUFFALO WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND 10AM...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FROM WHERE THE START
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THUS WHILE LOCATIONS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS
MORNING...THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL SHALLOW OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH FALLING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE TO BE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND REACH OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY DPVA AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INITIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY EVENING THE
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO SOME LOCAL ASSISTANCE FROM LIMITED LAKE INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NY FARTHEST REMOVED FROM ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTS OT 25-30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS FROM LAKE
ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 7-8K
FEET BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT A QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT
COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HILLS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...AND A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WEAKEN ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SW. ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL EVOLVE INTO SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC...
LEAVING A TRAILING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLING AWAY...
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST
AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. A
PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND TREND TOWARDS A COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FLIP/FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS. THE LATEST 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF RUNS NOW APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT...WITH SHEARED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO JUST NUISANCE SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT A POOR LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LOWEST CIGS AND VISIBILITY /WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE/ THROUGH
THE MORNING WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE
KJHW WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW AROUND
12Z.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE DELAYED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IF
WINDS BECOME CALM FRI NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
KROC.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL FORCE THE HIGHER WAVES
TO THE NORTH SHORES OF THE LAKES THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORES OF THE EASTERN LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
852 PM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND WEAKENED TO A
TO A TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN INLAND. THE SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL GENERATES A FEW
MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING BUT BY MIDNIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FINISHED. SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
LOW CLOUDS BUT ANY CLEARING AREA COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. A BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST FRIDAY WITH OUTER
MARINE ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 07/00Z TAFS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR KLMT TOWARD SUNRISE.
/SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST NOV 06 2014...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED ONSHORE. WEST SWELL OF 10 TO 11 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
ALONG WITH CHOPPY SEAS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. /SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM PST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TODAY MARKS THE END OF WHAT HAS BEEN A RATHER ACTIVE
PATTERN, BUT AT THE SAME TIME MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN OF
THE TYPE WE NORMALLY SEE IN THE WINTER. THAT IS TO SAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WITH VALLEY INVERSIONS, ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
MORNING FOG JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE TERM, BUT THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ACTUAL HIGHS AND LOWS, MOSTLY AS A RESULT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY FOG. THE EARLIER THE FOG FORMS
OVERNIGHT, THE WARMER THE LOW, WHILE THE LATER IT BURNS OFF IN THE
MORNING, IF EVER, THE LOWER THE HIGH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE FREQUENT
IN THIS REGARD, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY, RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS, MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WHILE THE FRONT IS
MORE DRY THAN MOST OF THE EVENTS SO FAR THIS SEASON, IT STILL IS
PACKING A BIT OF A PUNCH IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT. AS OF THIS
WRITING, THE FRONT HAS PASSED THE COASTLINE, AND WINDS THERE ARE
ON THE DECLINE. BUT ON THE EAST SIDE, AND ACROSS THE RIDGELINES
OF THE CASCADES, LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.
TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT, ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, HAVE
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE OUT A FEW
MORE HOURS. WINDS THERE WILL ALSO DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE, THOUGH USUALLY MORE OF A
SUMMER PATTERN, IS POSSIBLE THIS LATE IN THE YEAR, AND WOULD
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW WITH WARMING AND DRYING LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN FOG FORMATION
AND BEHAVIOR FOR THE WEST SIDE, WHICH JUST ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY
OF BOTH THE FOG AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES SOUTH EAST OF THE CASCADES. A
WEAK FRONT AND SOME VERY WEAK MOISTURE INFLOW MAY MOVE ONSHORE,
BUT WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT WILL BE HARD TO GET ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECASTS TOWARDS
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT LEFT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED
TERM. -BPN
LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NEAR THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) WILL BE LOWER THAN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS IT LOOKS LIKE
PACIFIC STORMS WILL WEAKEN INTO THE RIDGE AND MAY ONLY GIVE US
GLANCING BLOWS. AT THIS TIME...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY FOR THE COAST AND UMPQUA
BASIN.
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THAN THE
ECMWF NEXT WEEK. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MODEL (CANADIAN AND GFS
ENSEMBLES COMBINED)LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT
WEEK AND THIS IS OFTEN TELECONNECTED TO A MEAN RIDGE POSITION NEAR
THE WEST COAST. BASED ON THE ABOVE WE ARE TENDING TOWARD THE DRIER
SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS FOR WHAT IS TYPICALLY A WET TIME OF YEAR IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH A RIDGE PATTERN WOULD EXPECT THAT THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL SEE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THIS
DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SANDLER
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 07/00Z TAFS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR KLMT TOWARD SUNRISE.
SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST NOV 06 2014...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED ONSHORE. WEST SWELL OF 10 TO 11 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ALONG WITH
CHOPPY SEAS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
FJB/FJB/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING
THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CREATE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS PASSING DURING THE
WEEKEND AND ANOTHER BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC LOW NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
STRENGTHEN QUICKLY /TO NEAR 990 MB/ AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE NRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH JUST SOME BRIEF...ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SUSQ VALLEY.
INCREASINGLY COLD...AND WELL-ALIGNED/DEEP NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS TWD DAYBREAK FRIDAY FROM KBFD...SOUTH TO KFIG AND KJST.
A STRONG SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL CROSS WRN NY STATE AND PASS OVER
NRN AND ERN PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS DYNAMIC TROUGH
WILL CREATE PLENTY OF LIFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY WHEN PULLING MSTR
OFF LK ONT AND ERN LK ERIE. TEMP PROFILES OFF THE LATEST HOST OF
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...HRRR AND RAP ALL INDICATE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR EVEN AS LATE AS
SUNRISE ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS /ESP ACROSS
SOMERSET COUNTY/ WILL COOL OFF A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE LOWER
ELEVS AND FEEL THAT SOME SNOW WILL MIX IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LIGHT ACCUMS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH.
LOW TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY BRINGS THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WITH 8H TEMPS DIPPING
TO AROUND -10C IN THE N AND TO ABOUT -6C IN THE SRN COS. THE TEMP
PROFILE AT BFD LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW FALLING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT UNLESS IT IS REALLY COMING DOWN...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
MAKE IT STICK. WILL STILL MENTION MINOR ACCUMS DUE TO THE
PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD IN-CLOUD TEMPS AND MARGINAL
SFC TEMPS. THE LAURELS HAVE A GOOD HURON CONNECTION SETTING UP.
BUT THE INITIAL TEMP PROFILE IS WARMER THERE THAN THE NRN MTNS.
SO...MINOR ACCUMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THERE BUT IT MAY ONLY DIP DOWN
TO 1500FT OR SO. WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE WITH THIS AND JUST PAINT
A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUM WITH A SLIGHT BIT MORE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVS OF SRN SOMERSET CO. MAXES FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE U30S N
AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SERN CITIES. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
NICELY FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME FRIDAY NIGHT - BUT CLOUD UP AGAIN
OVER THE NWRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AS HIGH/MID CLOUDS
MOVE IN. WHILE THE TEMPS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER A BIT IN THE
NW...AND PERHAPS EVEN RISE A LITTLE BEFORE SAT MORNING...IT SHOULD
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE EVERYBODY WILL FREEZE. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE AREA AND ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF THE POPULATION OF THE CWA. THE ISSUANCE OF
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAS ALREADY BEEN STOPPED DUE TO THE LATER
THAN NORMAL FIRST FREEZE IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO NO
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED UNTIL SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE AND COLDER WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE CONUS. SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING THE STATE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...AIDED BY SRN
STREAM ENERGY...WILL LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE
OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF
PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUE...WITH SFC LOW FORMATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS PA
ON WED BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST SIG PCPN EVENT OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY STRONG JET MAX WILL DROP SE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE...THE
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.
STILL FOG AT LNS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PA WILL TRANSFER
IT/S REMAINING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER NEW ENG
TONIGHT. THE RESULTING NW FLOW WILL DRAW DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING
FLYING CONDS INTO EASTERN PA OVERNIGHT. AS OF 03Z...IFR VSBYS
STILL NOTED AT KLNS. HOWEVER...LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA SUGGESTS CONDS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THERE SOMETIME IN THE 04Z-07Z. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE FORCED TO ASCEND THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PRODUCE
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST OVERNIGHT.
ALL MDL DATA IS POINTING TOWARD IMPROVING CIGS ACROSS THE W MTNS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY BY AFTN. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF COASTAL LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND
30KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN HOURS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH. DIMINISHING WIND IS
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS COMES THROUGH THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY
EVIDENT ON RADAR/OBS OUT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SLIGHT WARM
LAYER CAUSING SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWFLAKES BEFORE THEY REACH THE
GROUND. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS BAND
COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS MORNING...BUT 07.08Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE RH WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AT 10-15KFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW IT. BASED ON THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THIS
WAA MOVES THROUGH.
THE DEEPER LIFT COMES IN THIS EVENING AS A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE...EXPECT
THIS EVENING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
FALL. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE WARM LAYER HUGS THE
1-2C LINE WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FULLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES
INTO RAIN DROPS. RATHER THAN SNOW...THINK THAT SOME PELLETS/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT IN NC WI.
THE OTHER STORY FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS TO CLIMB UP AROUND
25 MPH. BASED ON THE 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS...GUSTS UP TO 40MPH
LOOK LIKELY BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING. IT IS GOING TO BE
A BORDERLINE CASE FOR A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR MASS THAT
WILL SET UP SHOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS THERE IS ONE OTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM AS ALL OF THE
07.00Z GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE TIMING OF IT WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST IN HAVING IT COME THROUGH NC WI SATURDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH HAVING IT COME
THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NAM NOT
EVEN HAVING A SYSTEM. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH AND
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10-14/1...EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER
GETTING IN THERE...SO WE MAY BE OVERDOING THE SNOW/TO COLD ON
TEMPS IF THAT FEATURE DOES SHOW UP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARD TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ON
MONDAY WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO DROP THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THIS SEASON. THE
07.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL
TIMING OF HAVING THE FRONTOGENETIC LIFT DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIFT IS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES WITH THE MID LEVEL
FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL REGION...SO AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRENDS NORTHWARD. IT IS A
LITTLE EARLY TO START TALKING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THE LATEST TREND
IS FAVORITING THE CORRIDOR FROM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND STAY HERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
ITSELF IS NOT LOOKING ANOMALOUSLY COLD/RECORD BREAKING...BUT IT
WILL FEEL THAT WAY SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT COLD THIS
SEASON. WHAT EVER SNOW FALLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AT TAF AIRFIELDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT
ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRST.
INTRODUCED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 08.01Z AND 08.03Z FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE HEADING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES.
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG OMEGA ABOVE 600 MB...THEY ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB ALONG
INTERSTATE 90. CONSIDERING THE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE 850 MB BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO A HALF INCH/ IN TAYLOR COUNTY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH GENERATES. SOUNDINGS SHOWS
SATURATION ABOVE 750 MB WITH DRY AIR BELOW. DUE TO THIS...IT IS
VERY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER WE WILL GET ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND THEN THIS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A TIGHT
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
THEIR LOCATION OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. WITH THIS LOCATION...THE WEAK TO MODERATE 925 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ITS SNOW TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES. WHILE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...THE ECMWF HAS NOT
BEEN. WHILE IT HAS BEEN SHIFTING THIS BAND NORTH AND SOUTH QUITE
A BIT...IT IS STILL AFFECTING SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
ITS 06.00Z RUN...IT WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT ITS 06.12Z
IS MUCH CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN IS THAT THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA. TOTAL SNOW FROM THE LATEST RUN HAS A 6 TO 9 INCH BAND ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE THE GFS...THE GEM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH IT TRACK NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
/ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ AND THAT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION TO
PUT OUT THIS HEADLINE IS NOT. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOMALOUS COLD 850 MB AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -12 AND -16C AND THE GFS IS RUNNING BETWEEN
-10 TO -14C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
VFR STRATOCUMULUS AT TAF AIRFIELDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT
ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRST.
INTRODUCED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 08.01Z AND 08.03Z FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED SYNOPSIS
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
420 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL OCCUR
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY CONDITIONS
EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITY CONTINUES THROUGH PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY GENERALLY FROM MERCED SOUTH THROUGH BAKERSFIELD
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. GOES WEST IFR PROBABILITY SHOWING
A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA THROUGH THE SJV COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. ANY DENSE FOG THAT DOES FORM IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE HRRR INDICATES CLEARING AROUND 10 AM PST.
ADDITIONALLY...NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FORECAST AN INVERSION TO AROUND
2000 FEET...KEEPING HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 MILES.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CHANGING VERY
LITTLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
VALLEY AND THE LOW 80S IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS.
A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE BRINGING ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
BY THURSDAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN KEEPS THE
REGION DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS
HIGH PREDICTABILITY AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARDS TO THE
REGION CONTINUING IN THE RIDGING PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY OUTLIER AS OF NOW IS THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO MARIPOSA
COUNTY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY 1 RUN AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE
RIDGING...WE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. FORECASTER CERTAINTY HIGH.
TO ADD TO OUR CONFIDENCE...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 6 TO 10
DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 12TH THROUGH THE 16TH) INDICATES
AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR IN FOG
UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND AGAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MVFR WILL PREVAIL IN HAZE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7 2014... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS IN MERCED COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN MERCED COUNTY. NO BURNING IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KFAT 11-09 85:1956 53:1982 59:1899 33:1903
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
KBFL 11-09 88:1926 52:1893 61:1953 31:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DECREASE
EACH DAY...HOWEVER HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITY CONTINUES THROUGH PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY GENERALLY FROM MERCED SOUTH THROUGH BAKERSFIELD
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. GOES WEST IFR PROBABILITY SHOWING
A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA THROUGH THE SJV COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. ANY DENSE FOG THAT DOES FORM IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE HRRR INDICATES CLEARING AROUND 10 AM PST.
ADDITIONALLY...NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FORECAST AN INVERSION TO AROUND
2000 FEET...KEEPING HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 MILES.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CHANGING VERY
LITTLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
VALLEY AND THE LOW 80S IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS.
A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE BRINGING ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
BY THURSDAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN KEEPS THE
REGION DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS
HIGH PREDICTABILITY AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARDS TO THE
REGION CONTINUING IN THE RIDGING PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY OUTLIER AS OF NOW IS THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO MARIPOSA
COUNTY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY 1 RUN AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE
RIDGING...WE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. FORECASTER CERTAINTY HIGH.
TO ADD TO OUR CONFIDENCE...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 6 TO 10
DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 12TH THROUGH THE 16TH) INDICATES
AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR IN FOG
UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND AGAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MVFR WILL PREVAIL IN HAZE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7 2014... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS IN MERCED COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN MERCED COUNTY. NO BURNING IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KFAT 11-09 85:1956 53:1982 59:1899 33:1903
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
KBFL 11-09 88:1926 52:1893 61:1953 31:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE EXTENDED IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF IT.
THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...SO WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE SUPERBLEND WHICH GOES
ALONG WITH CONSISTENCY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON PER MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 METERS AND BELOW ZERO 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG WITH DROPPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINED TUNED AS THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS CLOSER. IT
SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SAVE
PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROP TO 7 TO 10 BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY...HOWEVER SHOULD MOSTLY
BE VFR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS IS
TRENDING VERY SLOWLY TO MOVE EAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL 925
MILLIBAR RH PROGS WHICH SUGGEST GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AT IND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO THROW IN.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH AFTER 18Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
654 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A SCATTERED MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
COVER PERSISTENT SINGLE N/S BAND JUST OFF ERN LK MI SHORELINE INTO
NWRN CWA INLAND THROUGH WRN KOS CO IN PRE FIRST PERIOD. SCATTERED
WORDING COMBINED WITH EXPANDED AREA OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WORDING
SHOULD SUFFICE. BLYR FINALLY COOLED FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP
PER KLWA/KSBN AND PUBLIC REPORTS. HOWEVER...THERMAL MODIFICATION
NEAR LAKE AND EPISODIC ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULTIES ESPCLY IN
WEAKER CELLS...SUPPORT MIXED RA/SN WORDING. RUC RAPID REFRESH
INDICATING INLAND PUSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK COINCIDENT WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AS 8H COLD POOL SHUNTED EWD FROM LAKE HURON INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE RETRACTION CLOSER TO
LAKE AND INLAND ACRS SWRN MI/FAR NRN IN...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
TRACE MIXED AMOUNTS BYND 12 UTC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CU RULES SHOULD SUPPORT GENEROUS CU FIELD
ALL BUT FAR SERN QUARTER...MIXING OUT ALL BUT NERN CWA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FORECAST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
LONGWAVE LOSSES AS STRATOCU BREAKS BECOME ENLARGE NEAR SUNUP ALONG
WITH VARIABLE/TEMPERED DAYTIME INSOLATION. THOUGH WITH APPRECIABLE
WAA DISPLACED WELL WEST OF CWA...MORE INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH
CONSERVATIVE/MODEST RECOVERY. WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
ANTICIPATED ALTOCU LEAFING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ASSOCD WITH
50-60 KT JETLET TRACKS EWD THROUGH SRN LWR MI 09-12 UTC ON LEADING
EDGE OF SHARPENING TROF AND ASSOCIATED HFC OF 60-80M/12HR. INITIAL
LARGE SUBCLOUD CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /IN EXCESS OF 100 MB/
SHOULD NEGATE ALL BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR OF HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER CENTROID THAT TRACKS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SRN CAN
TODAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH EARLY
HIGHS FOLLOWED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/LOW LEVEL WAA SUPPORT SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO FRI NIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
...TASTE OF WINTER ON THE WAY...
UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EAST NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROF...GATEWAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN...A FRONTOGENETIC PATTERN
WILL BE SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK
LOW OR SURFACE WAVE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GRADIENT. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OR NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD WEDGE OF COLD AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING FARTHER NORTH. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE NORMALIZED STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS FOR
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS OVER 5 SD...MEANING MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXITS IN BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST RAIN...SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUT FEELING THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARE TOO WARM. ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS...THE
5 PERCENT COLDEST HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT FT WAYNE
ARE 27F TO 33F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN BY AND LARGE VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST
PD. WHILE CIGS 25-30 PSBL AT TIMES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY BLO
CRITICAL 2KFT. OTHERWISE HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN GRTLKS TOWARD END OF FCST PD. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES PSBL
INVOF KSBN TOWARD END OF PD...HOWEVER NOT WORTHY OF SEPARATE
BREAKOUT GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROB OF TRACE EVENT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
955 AM...NW FLOW SHRA/SHSN ARE UNDERWAY. VIEWING A FEW WEBCAMS IN
GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND SHOWS SOME OFF AND ON SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE HARD TO COME BY AT THOSE SITES. DID GET A REPORT
OF 2 INCHES AT THE DAVIS COOP EARLIER. SO SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATION IS LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET FOR THE MOST
PART. HRRR AND A COUPLE LOCAL MODELS SHOW THAT A DOMINANT LAKE
BAND FROM HURON/ERIE WILL SET UP FROM VENANGO/MERCER COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN WESTMORELAND. GRIDS HAD
THIS PEGGED FAIRLY WELL AND SO ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS. DID
UP WIND GUSTS A LITTLE BIT GIVEN OBS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MOVE
UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS IN GENERAL.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
EVERYTHING STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENTED OVER LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAA/NW FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT EVENT WITH THE
COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RUNNING INTO THE
RIDGES AND CREATING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN THE TOUGHEST PART DUE TO DURATION...INTENSITY AND SURFACE
TEMPS. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING A
SCENARIO WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE THIS MORNING AND ONE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW FOCUSED ON ONE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE LIFT EXITS...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 3 OR 4000FT. THIS SHOULD CUTOFF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOWFALL AND THUS SHORTEN THE TIME FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF THE AREAS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE BAND(S)
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE STILL SLOW TO
RESPOND TO THE CAA...BUT SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IS VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DROPPING OF
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...SO
AN EFFICIENT SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BECOME LESS
PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD CORE ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE ENTIRE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLDEST AIR EXITS
AND THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE BELOW ZERO 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WILL LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A BIT OF
A MODERATION IN TEMPS SATURDAY.
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PLACE THE PRECIP/MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SUPPORT IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...AND IN
RESPONSE...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT LITTLE QPF. CAA WILL AGAIN
ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY`S
AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY SO NOT
AS MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY`S COLD SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAA AND SUBSIDENCE...
SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE BEGUN
TO THIN OUT AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY....EXCEPT FOR KBVI/KPIT/KAGC WHICH MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON IF LOCAL MODELS VERIFY
WELL AND A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ON
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
709 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 645 AM SHOWS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCAL HIRES AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET SO FAR TODAY.. SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY FROM MERCER TO WESTMORELAND COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER THESE AREAS...BUT OTHERWISE...MINIMAL CHANGE
NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ONGOING FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH
TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
EVERYTHING STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENTED OVER LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAA/NW FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT EVENT WITH THE
COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RUNNING INTO THE
RIDGES AND CREATING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN THE TOUGHEST PART DUE TO DURATION...INTENSITY AND SURFACE
TEMPS. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING A
SCENARIO WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE THIS MORNING AND ONE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW FOCUSED ON ONE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE LIFT EXITS...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 3 OR 4000FT. THIS SHOULD CUTOFF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOWFALL AND THUS SHORTEN THE TIME FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF THE AREAS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE BAND(S)
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE STILL SLOW TO
RESPOND TO THE CAA...BUT SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IS VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DROPPING OF
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...SO
AN EFFICIENT SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BECOME LESS
PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD CORE ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE ENTIRE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLDEST AIR EXITS
AND THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE BELOW ZERO 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WILL LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A BIT OF
A MODERATION IN TEMPS SATURDAY.
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PLACE THE PRECIP/MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SUPPORT IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...AND IN
RESPONSE...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT LITTLE QPF. CAA WILL AGAIN
ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY`S
AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY SO NOT
AS MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY`S COLD SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAA AND SUBSIDENCE...
SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE BEGUN
TO THIN OUT AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY....EXCEPT FOR KBVI/KPIT/KAGC WHICH MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON IF LOCAL MODELS VERIFY
WELL AND A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ON
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV
TROUGH...CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS FROM THE -4C TO -7C RANGE TO
-11C TO -14C. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE (WATER TEMPS
AROUND 6C) WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS...STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE PCPN INTENSITY SO THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. THE STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE ERN CWA
EARLY SATURDAY. HOWVER...THE INCREASED MIXING DEPTH WITH THE CAA
COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ALONG THE SHORE FOR NW
FACING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MARQUETTE.
THE LES WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC REFLECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REINFORCING COLD AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE(INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK INTO
THE 8K TO 10K FT RANGE) WILL BOOST THE LES FOR W TO WNW FLOW AREAS SO
THAT THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
SUN-MON...EXPECT THE W FLOW LES TO DIMINISH AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AGAIN DROP. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH FGEN AND WAA NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC-850 MB
WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. WINDS
VEERING TO N WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER
MI. HOWEVER...ACYC FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 3K-4K FT
WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
MENTIONED.
TUE-THU...GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAV AND ASSCOCIATED SFC LOW THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SOUTH OF UPPER MI COMPARED
TO THE 12Z/06 ECMWF/UKMET/GEM THAT HAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN INTO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL SFC LOW TRACK...UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR (850 MB TEMPS FROM -12C TO -14C) ON N
TO NW WINDS AND A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING LES TO THE
NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CEILING AND VIS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM MANITOBA
THIS MORNING SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING.
INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PEAK OUT WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR AND IFR NEAR THE FRONT /LOWEST AT SAW/. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS IWD AROUND 06Z...AND SAW CLOSER TO 09Z. COLDER
AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW. BREEZY WNW WINDS AT CMX AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE
NEAR 30KTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV
TROUGH...CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS FROM THE -4C TO -7C RANGE TO
-11C TO -14C. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE (WATER TEMPS
AROUND 6C) WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS...STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE PCPN INTENSITY SO THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. THE STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE ERN CWA
EARLY SATURDAY. HOWVER...THE INCREASED MIXING DEPTH WITH THE CAA
COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ALONG THE SHORE FOR NW
FACING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MARQUETTE.
THE LES WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC REFLECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REINFORCING COLD AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE(INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK INTO
THE 8K TO 10K FT RANGE) WILL BOOST THE LES FOR W TO WNW FLOW AREAS SO
THAT THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
SUN-MON...EXPECT THE W FLOW LES TO DIMINISH AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AGAIN DROP. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH FGEN AND WAA NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC-850 MB
WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. WINDS
VEERING TO N WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER
MI. HOWEVER...ACYC FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 3K-4K FT
WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
MENTIONED.
TUE-THU...GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAV AND ASSCOCIATED SFC LOW THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SOUTH OF UPPER MI COMPARED
TO THE 12Z/06 ECMWF/UKMET/GEM THAT HAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN INTO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL SFC LOW TRACK...UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR (850 MB TEMPS FROM -12C TO -14C) ON N
TO NW WINDS AND A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING LES TO THE
NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD WITH AN UPSLOPE N
WIND COMPONENT FOR THE EARLY MRNG HRS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK HI PRES
RIDGE/AREA OF DRIER LLVL AIR. THIS HI AND AREA OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL
THEN BRING VFR WX THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
THIS AFTN AND PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APRCHG LO PRES TROF...EXPECT GUSTY S WINDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AT THE MORE EXPOSED SAW AND IWD LOCATIONS. A MIX OF RA AND SN WL
ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THE SLY FLOW WL SLOWLY TAP MORE
LLVL MSTR. IN CONCERT WITH THE FALLING PCPN...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE THRU THE EVNG HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
OUR BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END THIS
MORNING AS A SFC RIDGE IS QUICKLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AS
A 997MB SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SRN SASK. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 305-310K SFCS IS FORCING A LEAD BAND OF RADAR RETURNS /THOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY PRECIP AT THE SFC/ THAT IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO WRN
MN AT 3 AM. HOWEVER...THESE ISENTROPIC SFCS ARE ALL LOCATED BETWEEN
8K AND 12K FEET OFF THE GROUND...WITH THE AIR BELOW STILL VERY DRY.
BECAUSE OF THAT...WE ARE SEEING PLENTY OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 8K AND 12K
FEET...BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. HI-RES SHORT TERM CAMS
/HRRR...HOPWRF ETC/ ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE ADAMANT ON PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND WITH THIS WAA THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 07.00 RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE...WHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE SREF CONTINUE TO
KEEP PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING NORTH OF THE MPX CWA. AM A BIT GUN
SHY ON BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CAMS RIGHT NOW...AS ON FRIDAY THEY
WERE QUITE OVERDONE ON THE EXTENT/AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FELL SOUTH
OF THE DEFORMATION BAND THAT SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL MN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE GOING FORECAST OTHER
THAN TO PULL CHANCE POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH /INTO THE TWIN CITIES/
BY 18Z. TEMPS ARE WARMING BACK ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP...SO EXPECT P-TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH A LITTLE MIX
WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS PRECIP
INITIALLY WORKS INTO CENTRAL MN.
PRECIP COVERAGE IS LOOKING LIKE IT SHOULD BE A BIT BETTER WITH THE
SECOND ROUND OF FORCING COMING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS ROUND OF FORCING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 21Z...MOVING THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 00Z AND BE EXITING THE ERN MPX CWA A LITTLE AFTER 3Z. THE
REASON PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTING IS WE WILL BE MOISTENING
THE LOW LEVELS A BIT...SO THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH DRY AIR TO FIGHT
AS THE WAA BAND WILL HAVE. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-94 AND NOW HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS OVER IN WRN WI THIS EVENING. THE
AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...WHICH MEANS WE WILL
WILL BE DEALING WITH AN ALL RAIN EVENT. WITH THAT SAID...IT IS AN
ALL RAIN EVENT WHERE THE BIG WINNER FOR TOTAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY
ONLY GET A TENTH OF AN INCH.
POSSIBLY THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THE FRONT THOUGH IS THE WINDS COMING
IN BEHIND IT. WE WILL BE SEEING 3HR PRESSURE RISES OF THE ORDER OF
4-5 MB COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS WILL BE A DECREASE
AS COMPARED TO THE 6-8MB RISES THE DAKOTAS WILL EXPERIENCE TODAY.
STRONG CAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DEEP /UP TO ALMOST H85/ AND WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX-DOWN WINDS OFF NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS PUSH UP TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KTS...THOUGH MID CHANNEL WINDS /WHICH WILL BE MOST
COMMON FOR GUSTS/ ARE DOWN AROUND 35 KTS. 200FT WINDS ALSO INCREASE
TO NEAR 25 KTS...WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY FOR MAX SUSTAINED WINDS WE
COULD EXPECT. THIS ALL POINTS TO MARGINAL WIND ADVY WINDS...AND WITH
THOSE EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 0Z AND 9Z...THEY WOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW IMPACT WINDS AS WELL. SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUR AREA CLEAN
OF ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND WITH A MARGINAL LOW IMPACT EVENT
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
FIRST UP IN THE LONG TERM IS A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED. THE GFS
IS THE QUICKEST WITH THE ONSET BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND HAS
THE EVENT PRACTICALLY OVER BEFORE THE ECMWF SPREADS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GEM ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY. THE SREF OFFERED
A NICE COMPROMISE ON THE TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...CHANCE
POPS REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI.
A MORE POTENT WAVE IS SET TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HOWEVER THE CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND HAS BEEN MEANDERING
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. THE 07/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SETTLED
DOWN SOME. USING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLACES THE EMPHASIS ON THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER. THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS (A NEW VERSION TO BE
RELEASED IN DEC) ARE ALONG I-90 WHILE THE NAM...GEM AND OUR
INTERNAL HOPWRF ARE ACROSS NORTHERN IA. GUIDANCE FROM HPC METWATCH
INDICATED THAT MORE EMPHASIS SHOULD BE PLACED ON THE NORTHERN
SOLUTIONS DUE TO TOO MUCH COLD/DRY AIR BEING ALLOWED IN ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE ON THE LATTER SOLUTIONS. A CHECK OF
THE CIPS ANALOGS USING THE GFS AT 72 HOURS SHOWED NOV 8TH 1985 AS
THE NUMBER ONE ANALOG. ITS INTERESTING THAT THE SNOW FROM THIS
ANALOG WAS ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER...WHICH COMES BACK TO THE BLENDING SOLUTION OF THE 07/00Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE 07/00Z GFS BUFKIT PROFILE FOR KFRM HAS A
LITTLE MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY WHILE
SPREADING INTO ADJOINING AREAS OF WI. POPS WERE RAISED IN THESE
AREAS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING ON THE
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR. HOW FAR NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHES IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THIS
POINT...ITS LOOKING LIKE A WILLMAR...SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES TO EAU
CLAIRE LINE IS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS REACHES. A WINTER STORM WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK IT WILL BE COLD AND DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ONE CONCERN
ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES MORE THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS THE
FACT THAT THE FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE CYCLONIC WITH PERIODS OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ADDITION TO STRATOCUMULUS. AREAS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS ARE VULNERABLE TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH
FINALLY REACHES US. ON A SIDE NOTE...FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...THE TWIN CITIES HAS NOT HAD A LOW BELOW ZERO SINCE NOV
24TH 1997.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE RADAR SAYS IT WILL BE A WET MORNING...BUT THE VERY DRY AIR
BELOW 10K FT SAYS OTHERWISE. SEE TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
TODAY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIP CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. USED THE HRRR TO
TIME THESE PRECIP ROUNDS IN. OF THE TWO...THE COLD FRONT IS THE
ONE THAT LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAIN AS THE ATMO BELOW 10K
FT WILL HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A 2-3K FT STRATUS DECK COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL
LIKELY START TO SCT OUT BEFORE 12Z SAT. WILL SEE A 4 OR 5 HOUR
WINDOW AFTER THE FROPA WITH STRONG WINDS...BUT THEY WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN SOME AFTER THAT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MORE THAN SUPPORT
WHAT THE 06Z TAFS HAD FOR WIND SPEEDS...SO CONTINUED TO GO A BIT
ABOVE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THOSE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER THE FROPA.
KMSP...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY AS DRY AIR
WILL PLAY HAVOC ON APPROACHING PRECIP/VIRGA. WILL BE PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH FOR WHEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FORE PRECIP TO KEEP IT ALL
RAIN. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE FORECAST OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. ALSO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY MORNING THEY WILL LAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS W 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...CHC IFR/SN. SMALL ACCUMS POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1057 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW NORTH OF
TORONTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY AROUND MID-DAY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND DUAL POL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THE TRANSITION BY AROUND 5 OR 6 AM. IN FACT...IT IS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER WILL SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN BUFFALO WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND 10AM...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FROM WHERE THE START
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THUS WHILE LOCATIONS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS
MORNING...THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL SHALLOW OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH FALLING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE TO BE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND REACH OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY DPVA AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INITIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY EVENING THE
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO SOME LOCAL ASSISTANCE FROM LIMITED LAKE INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NY FARTHEST REMOVED FROM ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTS OT 25-30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS FROM LAKE
ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 7-8K
FEET BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT A QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT
COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HILLS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...AND A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WEAKEN ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SW. ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL EVOLVE INTO SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC...
LEAVING A TRAILING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLING AWAY...
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST
AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. A
PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND TREND TOWARDS A COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FLIP/FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS. THE LATEST 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF RUNS NOW APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT...WITH SHEARED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO JUST NUISANCE SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT A POOR LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOWEST CIGS AND VISIBILITY /WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE/ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS THE RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW OR ALL SNOW.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE DELAYED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IF WINDS BECOME CALM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON LAKE
ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS TIME.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL FORCE THE HIGHER WAVES
TO THE NORTH SHORES OF THE LAKES THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORES OF THE EASTERN LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
653 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW NORTH OF
TORONTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY AROUND MID-DAY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND DUAL POL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THE TRANSITION BY AROUND 5 OR 6 AM. IN FACT...IT IS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER WILL SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN BUFFALO WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND 10AM...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FROM WHERE THE START
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THUS WHILE LOCATIONS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS
MORNING...THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL SHALLOW OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH FALLING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE TO BE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND REACH OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY DPVA AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INITIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY EVENING THE
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO SOME LOCAL ASSISTANCE FROM LIMITED LAKE INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NY FARTHEST REMOVED FROM ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTS OT 25-30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS FROM LAKE
ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 7-8K
FEET BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT A QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT
COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON THE HILLS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...AND A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WEAKEN ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SW. ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL EVOLVE INTO SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY AS WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC...
LEAVING A TRAILING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLING AWAY...
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST
AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. A
PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND TREND TOWARDS A COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FLIP/FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS. THE LATEST 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF RUNS NOW APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT...WITH SHEARED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO JUST NUISANCE SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT A POOR LAKE EFFECT SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CIGS AND VISIBILITY /WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE/ THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE KJHW
WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE DELAYED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IF
WINDS BECOME CALM FRI NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
KROC.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL FORCE THE HIGHER WAVES
TO THE NORTH SHORES OF THE LAKES THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORES OF THE EASTERN LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
544 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS COMES THROUGH THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY
EVIDENT ON RADAR/OBS OUT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SLIGHT WARM
LAYER CAUSING SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWFLAKES BEFORE THEY REACH THE
GROUND. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS BAND
COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS MORNING...BUT 07.08Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE RH WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AT 10-15KFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW IT. BASED ON THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THIS
WAA MOVES THROUGH.
THE DEEPER LIFT COMES IN THIS EVENING AS A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE...EXPECT
THIS EVENING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
FALL. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE WARM LAYER HUGS THE
1-2C LINE WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FULLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES
INTO RAIN DROPS. RATHER THAN SNOW...THINK THAT SOME PELLETS/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT IN NC WI.
THE OTHER STORY FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS TO CLIMB UP AROUND
25 MPH. BASED ON THE 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS...GUSTS UP TO 40MPH
LOOK LIKELY BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING. IT IS GOING TO BE
A BORDERLINE CASE FOR A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR MASS THAT
WILL SET UP SHOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS THERE IS ONE OTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM AS ALL OF THE
07.00Z GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE TIMING OF IT WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST IN HAVING IT COME THROUGH NC WI SATURDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH HAVING IT COME
THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NAM NOT
EVEN HAVING A SYSTEM. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH AND
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10-14/1...EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER
GETTING IN THERE...SO WE MAY BE OVERDOING THE SNOW/TO COLD ON
TEMPS IF THAT FEATURE DOES SHOW UP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARD TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ON
MONDAY WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO DROP THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THIS SEASON. THE
07.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL
TIMING OF HAVING THE FRONTOGENETIC LIFT DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIFT IS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES WITH THE MID LEVEL
FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL REGION...SO AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRENDS NORTHWARD. IT IS A
LITTLE EARLY TO START TALKING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THE LATEST TREND
IS FAVORITING THE CORRIDOR FROM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND STAY HERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
ITSELF IS NOT LOOKING ANOMALOUSLY COLD/RECORD BREAKING...BUT IT
WILL FEEL THAT WAY SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT COLD THIS
SEASON. WHAT EVER SNOW FALLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BRINING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON CLOUD BASES FALLING TO AROUND 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 36 KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...STRATUS LOOKS TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO 2KFT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND COULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING
IN THE NORTH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FAIRLY
LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 30S AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 072100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LOWER VFR CEILINGS AROUND 035 HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE KIND AREA...SO
WILL TAKE THEM OUT ON THE UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY START TO THIN AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE AT THE WESTERN SITES.
WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS THEN TONIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NIGHT AS CENTRAL INDIANA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY /TO 8-14 KTS/ AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND COULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING
IN THE NORTH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FAIRLY
LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 30S AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY START TO THIN AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE AT THE WESTERN SITES.
WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS THEN TONIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NIGHT AS CENTRAL INDIANA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY /TO 8-14 KTS/ AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
105 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ONLY TO REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
SCATTERED MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WHERE SUNSHINE CAN PEEK THROUGH...VERSUS
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN CLOUDY AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. AN EVEN COLDER PERIOD STILL
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
COVER PERSISTENT SINGLE N/S BAND JUST OFF ERN LK MI SHORELINE INTO
NWRN CWA INLAND THROUGH WRN KOS CO IN PRE FIRST PERIOD. SCATTERED
WORDING COMBINED WITH EXPANDED AREA OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WORDING
SHOULD SUFFICE. BLYR FINALLY COOLED FOR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP
PER KLWA/KSBN AND PUBLIC REPORTS. HOWEVER...THERMAL MODIFICATION
NEAR LAKE AND EPISODIC ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULTIES ESPCLY IN
WEAKER CELLS...SUPPORT MIXED RA/SN WORDING. RUC RAPID REFRESH
INDICATING INLAND PUSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK COINCIDENT WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AS 8H COLD POOL SHUNTED EWD FROM LAKE HURON INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE RETRACTION CLOSER TO
LAKE AND INLAND ACRS SWRN MI/FAR NRN IN...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
TRACE MIXED AMOUNTS BYND 12 UTC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CU RULES SHOULD SUPPORT GENEROUS CU FIELD
ALL BUT FAR SERN QUARTER...MIXING OUT ALL BUT NERN CWA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FORECAST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
LONGWAVE LOSSES AS STRATOCU BREAKS BECOME ENLARGE NEAR SUNUP ALONG
WITH VARIABLE/TEMPERED DAYTIME INSOLATION. THOUGH WITH APPRECIABLE
WAA DISPLACED WELL WEST OF CWA...MORE INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH
CONSERVATIVE/MODEST RECOVERY. WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
ANTICIPATED ALTOCU LEAFING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ASSOCD WITH
50-60 KT JETLET TRACKS EWD THROUGH SRN LWR MI 09-12 UTC ON LEADING
EDGE OF SHARPENING TROF AND ASSOCIATED HFC OF 60-80M/12HR. INITIAL
LARGE SUBCLOUD CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /IN EXCESS OF 100 MB/
SHOULD NEGATE ALL BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR OF HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER CENTROID THAT TRACKS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SRN CAN
TODAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH EARLY
HIGHS FOLLOWED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/LOW LEVEL WAA SUPPORT SLIGHT
UPWARD NUDGE TO FRI NIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
...TASTE OF WINTER ON THE WAY...
UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EAST NORTH
AMERICAN UPPER TROF...GATEWAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO DEEPEN...A FRONTOGENETIC PATTERN
WILL BE SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK
LOW OR SURFACE WAVE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GRADIENT. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OR NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD WEDGE OF COLD AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING FARTHER NORTH. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE NORMALIZED STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS FOR
THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS OVER 5 SD...MEANING MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXITS IN BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST RAIN...SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUT FEELING THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARE TOO WARM. ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS...THE
5 PERCENT COLDEST HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT FT WAYNE
ARE 27F TO 33F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN HOLDING ON STRONG THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS DRIER AIR AND MORE OF A WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND
ARRIVE...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
EXISTS LATE AM SATURDAY AS CIGS DROP INTO THE UPPER END OF MVFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1211 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER WEST. 1430Z
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF MIXING INTO A CU FIELD
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE LATE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS BEST FOR LOWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL...SO ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. WENT DRY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL TRY
AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. THUS WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE EXTENDED IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF IT.
THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...SO WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE SUPERBLEND WHICH GOES
ALONG WITH CONSISTENCY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON PER MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 METERS AND BELOW ZERO 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG WITH DROPPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINED TUNED AS THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS CLOSER. IT
SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SAVE
PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROP TO 7 TO 10 BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY START TO THIN AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE AT THE WESTERN SITES.
WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS THEN TONIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NIGHT AS CENTRAL INDIANA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY /TO 8-14 KTS/ AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
404 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTERWARDS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS TWO BANDS OF ENHANCED SN RATES...
A DIMINISHING ONE OVR NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND FAR NRN PENOBSCOT
COUNTY AND A NEW STRONGER BAND XTNDG SW FROM NRN NB PROV INTO FAR
SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. BOTH WERE WELL
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. THE TREND BASED ON THIS
OUTPUT IS TO MOVE ANY REMAINING BANDING OVR OUR REGION ENTIRELY
INTO NB BY ERLY EVE. FOR NOW...THE ONLY WNTR WX HDLN GOING ATTM IS
THE WNTR STM WRNG FOR NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WHICH WE WILL HOLD ON
TO FOR A COUPLE OF HRS...THINKING THAT ANY SNFL THAT OCCURS
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN IT TAPERS TO SN SHWRS THIS EVE COULD STICK
MORE ON THE ROADWAYS WITH FALLING LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE TEMPS. SNFL
OVR SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES COULD AMOUNT TO AN
INCH OR TWO...BUT THESE LCTNS HAD LITTLE OR NO SN ACCUMULATION
BEFORE THIS TM.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY LATER TNGT AS THE
LOW CONTS TO MOVE FURTHER NE FROM THE REGION...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG WORKING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
WITH A STRONG BACKSIDE PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
SN PACK IS WAY TO WET FOR ANY SIG DRIFTING. FZG OF SLUSH AND WET
SN ON UNTREATED ROAD SFCS WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TNGT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FZG NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ON SAT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BRISK IN THE
MORN...THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTN WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND
QPF. THE NAM12 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOW BY LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS. ONLY MINOR
MODIFICATIONS MADE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN ACROSS NRN TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THIS EVE AND THEN TO
VFR AFT SN SHWRS EXIT THE FA. DOWNEAST SITES WILL IMPROVE FROM
MVFR LATE THIS AFTN IN RN/SN SHWRS TO VFR THIS EVE. ALL SITES
SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR ON SAT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN OVR
ALL OF OUR WATERS...THEN WOULD XPCT A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR SAT
MORN MSLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. WENT WITH OR A LITTLE BLO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS TNGT AND SAT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BECOMING LIGHT MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1238 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
955 AM...NW FLOW SHRA/SHSN ARE UNDERWAY. VIEWING A FEW WEBCAMS IN
GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND SHOWS SOME OFF AND ON SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE HARD TO COME BY AT THOSE SITES. DID GET A REPORT
OF 2 INCHES AT THE DAVIS COOP EARLIER. SO SUSPECT THAT
ACCUMULATION IS LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET FOR THE MOST
PART. HRRR AND A COUPLE LOCAL MODELS SHOW THAT A DOMINANT LAKE
BAND FROM HURON/ERIE WILL SET UP FROM VENANGO/MERCER COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN WESTMORELAND. GRIDS HAD
THIS PEGGED FAIRLY WELL AND SO ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS. DID
UP WIND GUSTS A LITTLE BIT GIVEN OBS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MOVE
UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS IN GENERAL.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
EVERYTHING STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENTED OVER LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAA/NW FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT EVENT WITH THE
COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RUNNING INTO THE
RIDGES AND CREATING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN THE TOUGHEST PART DUE TO DURATION...INTENSITY AND SURFACE
TEMPS. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING A
SCENARIO WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE THIS MORNING AND ONE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW FOCUSED ON ONE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE LIFT EXITS...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 3 OR 4000FT. THIS SHOULD CUTOFF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOWFALL AND THUS SHORTEN THE TIME FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF THE AREAS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE BAND(S)
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE STILL SLOW TO
RESPOND TO THE CAA...BUT SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IS VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DROPPING OF
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...SO
AN EFFICIENT SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BECOME LESS
PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD CORE ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE ENTIRE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLDEST AIR EXITS
AND THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE BELOW ZERO 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WILL LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A BIT OF
A MODERATION IN TEMPS SATURDAY.
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PLACE THE PRECIP/MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SUPPORT IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...AND IN
RESPONSE...MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT LITTLE QPF. CAA WILL AGAIN
ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY`S
AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY SO NOT
AS MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY`S COLD SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAA AND SUBSIDENCE...
SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH APPROACHING RIDGE.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20-21Z.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE TOWARDS A WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...AND SOME
HI/MID CLOUDS BUILDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS OUT
OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER EASTERN N.A. AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW HEADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE IN
NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS. UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
ENVELOPING MOST OF THE U.S. 12Z TUE WITH VERY COLD AIR EMBEDDED IN
THIS TROUGH. TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND -13C AND LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES FROM 5C TO 7C WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PCPN AND WITH THE COLD AIR...THIS WILL ALL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD
AND KCMX AND BY EARLY EVENING AT KSAW. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
MINNESOTA...EXPECT A ONE TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. COULD
BE BRIEFLY IFR VSBY DURING BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN TEMPO GROUPS IN LATEST TAFS. ONCE THIS SNOW MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
BACK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
KIWD AROUND 06Z...AND KSAW CLOSER TO 09Z. COLDER AIR RUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW ANY MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST AT
KCMX AND KIWD WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KTS. DRY AIR ARRIVING LATER ON
SATURDAY MAY ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT KIWD BY SATURDAY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1248 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COME TO A SLOW END ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MAIN HOLDOUT AREAS NEAR IWD AND E OF
MUNISING. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL. MODELS HAVE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH ALL THE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO MORE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE.
THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST...AS BIG CHANGES ARE COMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HAVE DRY WEATHER INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WAA SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD
OF THE CWA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS MN
AND THE ASSOCIATED 500MB TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
-1C OVER THE LAND...WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING 36-40C FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS OVER THE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TO JUST E OF IWD
AT 06Z SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE EXPECT MUCH STRONGER NW WINDS.
GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR W TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
/MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-38KTS WHILE
MIXING TO NEAR 850MB/. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER THE W
HALF LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO AROUND ERY BY
12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE E
HALF UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
1 TO NEARLY 3 IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE HURON
MTNS THROUGH SAW AND SW ALGER COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV
TROUGH...CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS FROM THE -4C TO -7C RANGE TO
-11C TO -14C. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE (WATER TEMPS
AROUND 6C) WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS...STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE PCPN INTENSITY SO THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. THE STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE ERN CWA
EARLY SATURDAY. HOWVER...THE INCREASED MIXING DEPTH WITH THE CAA
COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ALONG THE SHORE FOR NW
FACING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MARQUETTE.
THE LES WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC REFLECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REINFORCING COLD AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE(INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK INTO
THE 8K TO 10K FT RANGE) WILL BOOST THE LES FOR W TO WNW FLOW AREAS SO
THAT THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
SUN-MON...EXPECT THE W FLOW LES TO DIMINISH AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AGAIN DROP. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH FGEN AND WAA NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC-850 MB
WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. WINDS
VEERING TO N WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER
MI. HOWEVER...ACYC FLOW AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 3K-4K FT
WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
MENTIONED.
TUE-THU...GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAV AND ASSCOCIATED SFC LOW THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SOUTH OF UPPER MI COMPARED
TO THE 12Z/06 ECMWF/UKMET/GEM THAT HAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN INTO THE
AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL SFC LOW TRACK...UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR (850 MB TEMPS FROM -12C TO -14C) ON N
TO NW WINDS AND A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING LES TO THE
NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD
AND KCMX AND BY EARLY EVENING AT KSAW. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
MINNESOTA...EXPECT A ONE TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. COULD
BE BRIEFLY IFR VSBY DURING BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN TEMPO GROUPS IN LATEST TAFS. ONCE THIS SNOW MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
BACK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
KIWD AROUND 06Z...AND KSAW CLOSER TO 09Z. COLDER AIR RUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW ANY MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST AT
KCMX AND KIWD WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KTS. DRY AIR ARRIVING LATER ON
SATURDAY MAY ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT KIWD BY SATURDAY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
IT/S AN ACTIVE PERIOD MARINE WISE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT A
LOW JUST W OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING TO STREAK E ACROSS NW
ONTARIO AND OVER JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW GALES OF
35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ENDING OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES LATE SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FOLLOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-248-
264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1020 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR LATEST
OBSERVED TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS TO MAX HIGHS BY A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE.
.DISCUSSION...FULL SUN ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REBOUND FROM THE UPPER 30 AND LOW 40 LOWS THIS MORNING. WITH 7-10C
H925 TEMPS PER RAP SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOW 60S SOUTH WITH A COOL NORTH BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH. SOME HIGHER
CIRRUS WILL START TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF REGION LATE
AFTERNOON AND BE TO LATE TO IMPINGE ON HIGH TEMPS.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10KTS
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 5KTS THIS EVENING. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS
FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
AND GRADUALLY WEAKER COLD ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL AS COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS (850 MB TEMPS 4-8C) LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE DELTA. THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST IN PARTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI...THUS WE
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AND HWO.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
WILL FORCE ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
BY EARLY SATURDAY...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWATS UP TO 3/4
INCH AND 700 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DOWN TO 1-4C. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CLEARING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. /DL/
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...THE FOCUS ON THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARLY PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
AND THE WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FOR WED-
FRI.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOL DOWN FOR MID WEEK...WE WILL COVER THE THE
SUN-TUE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE A COOL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG DAY
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SFC HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR A
COOL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR MON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH MORE
NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE LATEST BLENDED GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
AND REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS 68-72. HOWEVER...DEEPER
ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID 70S AS WARM LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP (925MB TEMPS OF 15C). I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW UPPER 70S.
TUE WILL BE A MORE TRICKY DAY AS SOME OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE FRONT
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY SE. TUE WILL START THE DAY OFF ON THE WARM
SIDE AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
POOLING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE STEADY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WAS WELL EARLY TUE AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INCREASES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY SO SOME MID RANGE POPS WILL EXIST TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY ON TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
INCREASED TEMPS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL-SE AREAS TO INDICATE THAT. THE
FULL WARMING POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE REACHED DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...BUT MID 70S SEEMS EASY TO REACH. WHAT WILL BE MORE TRICKY
IS TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF THE FEATURE.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON HOW QUICKLY THE MORE QUALITY COLD MAKES IT. MY
GUESS IS MODELS WILL TREND COLDER. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND HOW MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THESE
SHALLOW AIR MASSES. LOOK FOR A VERY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT WITH THIS
FRONT FOR TUE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY SOME 20-30 DEGREE
DIFFERENCES NOTED ACROSS THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE THE EXTENDED MOS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER. MOS TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DRIVEN BY 850MB TEMPS AND
SHALLOW COLD AIR ALWAYS GIVES MOS FITS. STAYING WITH MORE RAW OUTPUT
WILL LEAD YOU IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND THE LATEST BLENDED GUID
DOES THAT (ALTHOUGH ITS LIKELY NOT COLD ENOUGH). OVERALL...WE ARE
TALKING THE 5-6 DAY PART OF THE FORECAST AND BEING CONSERVATIVE IS A
GOOD APPROACH. OVERALL...FROM WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY
AND SOME 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVG. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 37 66 42 / 0 0 3 5
MERIDIAN 61 33 64 41 / 0 0 2 5
VICKSBURG 61 35 68 41 / 0 0 2 5
HATTIESBURG 64 36 66 43 / 0 0 1 4
NATCHEZ 61 37 66 43 / 0 0 2 4
GREENVILLE 59 38 65 41 / 0 0 7 4
GREENWOOD 58 36 65 39 / 0 0 6 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WELL UNDERWAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT 19Z. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE N AND W.
HRRR AND RAP PLAY A VERY QUICK DEMISE TO THE LLVL INSTABILITY AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY OF THE REMAIN HIGH-BASED SHSN TO ONLY
FLURRIES FOR THE FAR W AND FAR W BY SUNSET. LAST BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE CURRENTLY PINGING CAMBRIA AND CLEARFIELD
COS....WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT DIES. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT AND MANY PLACE WILL BE CLEAR EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO BE ABLE
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. THE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND MINOR RIDGE MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW MTNS FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING AND COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN THE 3-5SM RANGE AT KBFD UNTIL
AROUND 00Z.
FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE KBFD...WHERE
MDL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS THRU
LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY...BUT STILL PRODUCE LIGHT
SHRA ON SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY TURN TO -SHSN OVER THE WRN MTS /JST
AND BFD/ BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL HAVE
A TOUGH TIME GETTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
WED...IFR IN SHSN POSS AND DEF LOW CIGS NW HALF. FLURRIES/MVFR
CIGS SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WELL UNDERWAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT 19Z. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE N AND W.
HRRR AND RAP PLAY A VERY QUICK DEMISE TO THE LLVL INSTABILITY AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY OF THE REMAIN HIGH-BASED SHSN TO ONLY
FLURRIES FOR THE FAR W AND FAR W BY SUNSET. LAST BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE CURRENTLY PINGING CAMBRIA AND CLEARFIELD
COS....WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT DIES. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT AND MANY PLACE WILL BE CLEAR EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO BE ABLE
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. THE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND MINOR RIDGE MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY LATE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES AND LIFTS. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE MAP THOUGH WILL BE DEEP/LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 490DM AT 500 MB.
THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AS FLOW OVER EASTERN U.S.
TURNS MORE W/SW IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OF ITS OWN. THIS WILL USHER IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS NOW HIGH EVERYWHERE BUT RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE FAST MOVING SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW DOES DIP VIS AND CIGS TO IFR FOR A VERY BRIEF
TIME...BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE THAT OCCUR AFTER 21Z. JUST
BFD HANGS ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING POSS THERE LATER. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
SLACKENS THE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH JUST 5-7KT WINDS BY MIDNIGHT
AND NEARLY CALM WIND BY SUNRISE. WINDS BACK TO THE S THROUGH THE
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY...BUT STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHRA
ON SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY TURN TO -SHSN OVER THE WRN MTS /JST AND
BFD/ BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
WED...IFR IN SHSN POSS AND DEF LOW CIGS NW HALF. FLURRIES/MVFR
CIGS SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
242 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEARING WELL UNDERWAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT 19Z. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE N AND W.
HRRR AND RAP PLAY A VERY QUICK DEMISE TO THE LLVL INSTABILITY AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY OF THE REMAIN HIGH-BASED SHSN TO ONLY
FLURRIES FOR THE FAR W AND FAR W BY SUNSET. LAST BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE CURRENTLY PINGING CAMBRIA AND CLEARFIELD
COS....WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT DIES. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE NRN TIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT AND MANY PLACE WILL BE CLEAR EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS SHOULD NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL TO BE ABLE
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. THE VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND MINOR RIDGE MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE
RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. THEN THE FLOW BACKS AND A DECENT SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S. THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP
TIMING IS JUST AFTER SUNSET IN WARREN CO. THE FRONT PASSES IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALMOST NO MOISTURE INFLOW IS
FORESEEN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLDS WILL BE
WHAT IT CARRIED IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE LITTLE IT PICKS UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONFINE THE LIKELY POPS TO THE WRN
MTNS AND CHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE PROBABLY
MEANS IT WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOWN THE HILLS
INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS ARE INITIALLY MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS AS IT TAPERS OFF BY SUNRISE
SUN AM. WILL NOT PUT MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW IN THE ACCUM GRIDS
FOR THE NW SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE TRANQUIL AND MILD SIDE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN
GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A DEVELOP WAVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS NOW HIGH EVERYWHERE BUT RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE FAST MOVING SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW DOES DIP VIS AND CIGS TO IFR FOR A VERY BRIEF
TIME...BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE THAT OCCUR AFTER 21Z. JUST
BFD HANGS ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING POSS THERE LATER. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
SLACKENS THE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH JUST 5-7KT WINDS BY MIDNIGHT
AND NEARLY CALM WIND BY SUNRISE. WINDS BACK TO THE S THROUGH THE
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY...BUT STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHRA
ON SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY TURN TO -SHSN OVER THE WRN MTS /JST AND
BFD/ BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
WED...IFR IN SHSN POSS AND DEF LOW CIGS NW HALF. FLURRIES/MVFR
CIGS SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE NOVEMBER ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOTS.
WEB CAMS SHOWING A DUSTING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE VERY HIGHEST
OF ELEVATIONS LATE THIS MORNING...ESP AROUND CRESSON/EBENSBURG.
WINDS PRETTY STRONG WITH LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTENSIFYING
AND A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10MB FROM W-E ACROSS THE STATE. GRADIENT
SLACKENS THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE 10KTS UNTIL CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND RUC BOTH LIFT THE CURRENT/BEST CONVERGENT
ZONE/BAND FLOWING INTO CAMBRIA COUNTY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS STILL MARGINAL ON ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVS AND WITH SUN POKING THROUGH AT TIMES...IT SHOULD
MAKE ACCUMULATION TOUGH TO OCCUR.
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS OVER
SERN SECTIONS AND THE MOST HANGING IN OVER THE NW. THE INVERSION
HEIGHT WILL COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER
THE AREA SO ANY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 20S WHICH WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ABOUT
HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF FAIR BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
BEGINNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PARENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SHEARING OFF TO OUR NORTH SO MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOST OF THESE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST
AND NORTH. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE TRANQUIL AND MILD SIDE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN
GRADUALLY COLDER AIR WHICH WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ABOUT THE TIME TROUGHING IS MADE TO START
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/GEFS BULGE A BIG HIGH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEY USE TO SUPPRESS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BEFORE A DEVELOP WAVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE INTERESTING...BRINGING A SHARPER UPPER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OFF THE
MID ATL COAST. IT USES THIS TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP UP
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
MANY AREAS IF IT MANAGES TO PAN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IT DEVELOPS
IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS INTO THE NERN US...WITH THE SFC LOW MADE
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT...LIMITING THE
DURATION OF PRECIP AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH DEEP MOISTURE CAN
MANAGE TO PUSH. NOT THE KIND OF PATTERN I`D GET EXCITED ABOUT AT
THIS RANGE...SO I OPTED FOR THE MORE BLAND GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARGUE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STORMY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S AT
TIMES. STRIATED CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COVER
THE REGION...BUT GOOD CLEARING OCCURRING OVER MDT/LNS AT 16Z. CIGS
LIFTING...EVEN AT BFD AND JST. ONLY THE OCCASIONAL DIP INTO IFR
THERE...BUT IN BETWEEN THE CIGS AND VIS ARE VFR.
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFT INTO SAT...AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY...THE FROM THE SW...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHRASN DIMINISH AFT 21Z FOR JST AND AFT 00Z
FOR BFD. THE CIG MAY TRY TO CREEP BACK TO MVFR AT BFD THIS
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY SETTLE ON VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...CFROPA WITH SCT SHRA/SN WEST. MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL.
SUN...EARLY AM -SHSN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS. OTHERWISE NSW.
MON...NSW.
TUE...SHRA/REDUCED CIGS POSS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL MB WITH MAIN COOL FRONT
ABOUT READY TO EXIT CWA AS IT THRUSTS INTO WESTERN NE. PEAK
MIXING/ISALLOBARIC FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST HIGHEST WINDS ARE
ABOUT DONE. 18Z NAM/20Z RAP SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL TAKE A
CLOSE LOOK AT 300PM OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DETERMINATION ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING...CERTAINLY
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE IF WARNING IS DROPPED.
LAST BATCH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HITTING THE HILLS
WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY CREATE BREEZY SPOTS ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE MILD
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...STILL LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST COULD INCREASE AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE BEST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP...AND SO THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SECONDARY WAVE/UPPER LOW STILL PLANS ON BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. WITH
SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS...POSSIBLY MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST...AND NOW ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WITH THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-
030-041-042-044-046-047-049-074.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
341 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...CURRENT OBS SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO MAKING THE WIND FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AS FAR NORTH AS
GUYMON EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOW WELL INTO THE 70S. A SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO WILL IMPINGE ON THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THESE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT FORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
BRB
.LONG TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...AND A
STRONG SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
FAIRLY STABLE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN 1040-1050MB WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL ANCHOR THE COLDER AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWA COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. IF THE HARD FREEZE DOESN/T OCCUR
TUESDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND MID 20S
ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...AND WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...IT COULD BE THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME THE
SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHETHER IT WILL BE ALL
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR IF IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL...SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
CE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
HAVE INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT PRESSURE RISE IN ITS WAKE
PROGGED...AROUND 1 MB/HR...WHICH WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD YIELD SOME GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. HIGHEST
GUSTS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER OUR TYPICALLY WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM-NEST ALSO DEPICT SIMILAR GUSTS.
DUE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHEST GUST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS COMES THROUGH THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY
EVIDENT ON RADAR/OBS OUT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SLIGHT WARM
LAYER CAUSING SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWFLAKES BEFORE THEY REACH THE
GROUND. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS BAND
COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS MORNING...BUT 07.08Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE RH WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AT 10-15KFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW IT. BASED ON THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT BEST AS THIS
WAA MOVES THROUGH.
THE DEEPER LIFT COMES IN THIS EVENING AS A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEEPER LIFT/MOISTURE...EXPECT
THIS EVENING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
FALL. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE WARM LAYER HUGS THE
1-2C LINE WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO FULLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES
INTO RAIN DROPS. RATHER THAN SNOW...THINK THAT SOME PELLETS/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT IN NC WI.
THE OTHER STORY FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS TO CLIMB UP AROUND
25 MPH. BASED ON THE 07.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS...GUSTS UP TO 40MPH
LOOK LIKELY BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING. IT IS GOING TO BE
A BORDERLINE CASE FOR A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR MASS THAT
WILL SET UP SHOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS THERE IS ONE OTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM AS ALL OF THE
07.00Z GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE TIMING OF IT WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST IN HAVING IT COME THROUGH NC WI SATURDAY
EVENING...THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH HAVING IT COME
THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NAM NOT
EVEN HAVING A SYSTEM. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH AND
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 10-14/1...EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER
GETTING IN THERE...SO WE MAY BE OVERDOING THE SNOW/TO COLD ON
TEMPS IF THAT FEATURE DOES SHOW UP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARD TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ON
MONDAY WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO DROP THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THIS SEASON. THE
07.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL
TIMING OF HAVING THE FRONTOGENETIC LIFT DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIFT IS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES WITH THE MID LEVEL
FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL REGION...SO AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRENDS NORTHWARD. IT IS A
LITTLE EARLY TO START TALKING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THE LATEST TREND
IS FAVORITING THE CORRIDOR FROM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND STAY HERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS
ITSELF IS NOT LOOKING ANOMALOUSLY COLD/RECORD BREAKING...BUT IT
WILL FEEL THAT WAY SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT COLD THIS
SEASON. WHAT EVER SNOW FALLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLD DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULDNT REDUCE VISIBILITY. THAT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT FOR THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING ENDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM MID TO LATE
EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS SETTLING IN SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST 30-40 KT...STRONGEST AT RST. LOOK FOR THE WINDS
TO STAY GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
IAZ008-009-018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP