Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/06/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 AM WED MORN.
MOORE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY. MIN TEMPS LAST NIGHT HELPED TO CLEAR A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
IN THE SE CORNER...BUT CLOUD COVER KEPT THE REST FROM ACHIEVING A
HARD FREEZE SO WILL TRY AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MOORE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ085>089-093>097.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY. MIN TEMPS LAST NIGHT HELPED TO CLEAR A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
IN THE SE CORNER...BUT CLOUD COVER KEPT THE REST FROM ACHIEVING A
HARD FREEZE SO WILL TRY AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MOORE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
745 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ083-085>089-
093>099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
837 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH STILL PRODUCING CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
LIFTING NORTHWEST INTO SE GA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AND WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE
BY 12Z THURSDAY. HRRR MODEL AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOW DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN
FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SE GA/NE FL THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SSI THROUGH 03Z...POSSIBLY
CREATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN
THE 3000-4000 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...WITH IFR OR SUB-IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE TOWARDS 10Z. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR VISIBILITIES AT VQQ AND GNV FROM 10Z-13Z IN
THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REGION-WIDE
AFTER 13Z. WEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
13Z FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 10000 FT AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET TONIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 57 81 49 66 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 63 81 52 65 / 30 10 10 0
JAX 59 83 53 67 / 20 10 10 10
SGJ 64 80 56 67 / 20 10 10 10
GNV 58 83 53 70 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 60 84 56 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/NELSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
343 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS/BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
LARGE HI PRES RIDGE PUSHING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. UPSTREAM RH IS FAIRLY HIGH THRU
THE H100-H85 LYR...GENERALLY ARND 80PCT. THE RESULTING LOW LVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED PWAT VALUES TO CREEP UP TO ARND
0.75". HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z PENINSULA
SOUNDINGS...WHILE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NO ORGANIZED MID LVL
VORTICITY...SINKING OMEGA VALUES...AND UPR LVL CONVERGENCE THANKS TO
A 90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK THAT HAS CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS DESCENDING
LEFT REAR QUAD.
WITH 15-20KTS OF ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR AND RELATIVELY
HI LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OR TWO
WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE...MAINLY S OF CAPE CANAVERAL. INDEED...
RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING ISOLD RETURNS OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE
PAST FEW HRS...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH VERTICAL MOTION CAPPED WELL BLO 10KFT...ANY
POTENTIAL RAINFALL WOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
COASTAL TEMPS WILL LARGELY REFLECT THE LATEST SURF TEMPS...WHICH ARE
RUNNING IN THE U60S N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...TRANSITIONING TO THE U70S
FROM FT. PIERCE INLET SWD. GIVEN THESE NUMBERS...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS
A TOUCH HIGH ALNG THE COAST...WILL HOLD THEM IN THE M/U70S. FURTHER
INLAND...OCNL FAIR WX STRATOCU SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SFC
HEATING...READINGS SHOULD REACH THE U70S N OF I-4 AND L80S TO THE
SOUTH. THE PGRAD WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE PUSHED ENOUGH LOW LVL
MOISTURE ACRS THE STATE TO DRIVE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE IN THE
U50S/L60S. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE L/M60S INTERIOR AND M/U60S ALONG
THE COAST (4-8F ABV AVG).
NOTE: THERE WILL BE A HIGH TO EXTREME RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY AS A
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL IMPACTS THE E FL COAST...SEE MARINE SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BEACH GOES ARE URGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF.
WED-THU...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WED WILL BREAK DOWN THU AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON WED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 80S INLAND.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING ABOVE
CLIMO MINS AND LIGHT WINDS...MOS IS HINTING AT FOG. SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ADD FOG TO
FORECAST YET.
MID LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE PRE FRONTAL POPS ON THU.
WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MID 80S HIGHS
AREAWIDE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THU NIGHT AND BRING
CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH.
FRI-NEXT TUE...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HANG UP OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMAS
BY SAT AND LIFT SLIGHTLY BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
MOISTENING. CONSENSUS MOS PLACES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTH SAT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS BY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN DRY
THINGS OUT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS CONTINUING A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 05/12Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...AREAS CIGS BTWN FL040-060.
CSTL SITES...BTWN 04/15Z-04/23Z ERLY SFC WND G20-22KTS...AFT 05/00
SLGT CHC OF -SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH ERLY
BREEZE ACRS THE SW ATLC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LONG PD
ERLY SWELLS INTO THE E FL COAST THAT WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN IDEAL
BOATING CONDITIONS. CANAVERAL AND SCRIPPS BUOYS MEASURING 6-7FT
SEAS...MOST OF WHICH IS DUE TO A 5-6FT 14SEC SWELL. WITH WINDS
15-20KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE AND SRN LEGS...OVERALL BOATING CONDS WILL
BE LESS THAN IDEAL.
WED-SUN...ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WED AND DROP BELOW 15 KNOTS
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ON
THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRI LOOKS LIKE A BAD BOATING DAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 KNOTS. AFTER THESE GUSTY
WINDS...SAT IS FORECAST TO HAVE DIMINISHED NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SHOWING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SNEAK PEAK
AT SUN SHOWS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 64 82 65 / 10 20 20 10
MCO 80 63 84 64 / 0 10 10 10
MLB 77 69 82 67 / 10 20 20 10
VRB 79 70 82 66 / 10 20 20 10
LEE 79 61 84 64 / 0 10 10 10
SFB 78 62 84 65 / 0 10 10 10
ORL 79 63 84 66 / 0 10 10 10
FPR 79 69 82 66 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONE BRANCH JOINS INTO A PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND BRANCH DROP QUICKLY SOUTHWARD INTO A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS ENERGY IS LEFT
BEHIND AFTER A TROUGH FRACTURE WHICH SENT THE MORE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MIGRATING EASTWARD. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE THEN SEE THE TWO
STREAMS BECOME CONVERGENT AS THE MERGE AND RIDGE UP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION/ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ALOFT. REGIONAL EVENING RAOBS AND NWP TIME-HEIGHT
PLOTS SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE OUR HEADS WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TOWARD THE UPPER TROP...AND ALSO WITHIN A
THIN LAYER BELOW 850MB ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED WESTWARD WITH THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MOISTURE
LAYER IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF STRATOCU MIGRATING ONSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THESE
PATCHES HAVE A TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE AS THE MOVE FURTHER
INLAND...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...1028MB HIGH CENTER REMAIN PARKED NEAR THE GA/SC
BORDER THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. OUR
POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS PROVIDING THE PENINSULA
WITH A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT NEARLY AS COOL
OUT THERE AS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH OF
I-4...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A BIT
OF A WARM-UP FROM THE COOL TEMPERATURES OF MONDAY. FIRST OFF WE WILL
BE STARTING OFF CONSIDERABLY WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON MONDAY
MORNING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PIVOT
EASTWARD AND DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON ADDING LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/SUPPRESSION. AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING A
STEADY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
FREE...WITH THE STACKED RIDGING IN PLACE AND DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING UP TO 5000FT OR SLIGHTLY
BETTER WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR
MOST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 70S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE). CURRENT
GRIDS SHOW 81-82 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY BE A DEGREE OR 2
OPTIMISTIC...BUT SOMEWHERE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AROUND 850MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PATCHES OF STRATOCU MIGRATING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. WILL CALL GENERAL CONDITIONS TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY.
THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE
ANY MORE 40S TONIGHT OVER THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE COOLEST
READING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S AROUND CHIEFLAND. ELSEWHERE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND.
WEDNESDAY...
THE PROCESSES THAT WILL BRING US OUR NEXT COLD FRONT/AIRMASS CHANGE
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION...HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS WILL HOLD FOR ONE
MORE DAY AND KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER CLIMO FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS EFFICIENT MIXING WORKS ON A LOWER LEVEL (950-850MB)
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
LEADING TO OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ON
THIS PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE FLAT RIDGING RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST TO A LOW IN THE OHIO VALLY. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WESTWARD ACROSS GA/FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THROUGH FRI THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AND DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
THEN EASTWARD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA RETREATS AS THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD...
REACHING SOUTH FL BY LATE FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
GULF REGION FROM THE PLAINS.
FOR SAT-MON...THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS UP INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN
TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES TO THE ATLANTIC BY MON...WITH
NEARLY ZONAL OR WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GULF SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION SUN FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THU DRY THEN BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT. SAT AFTERNOON
MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...A RESULT OF
THE FRONT LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT. TEMPERATURES START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE
OF NORMAL THEN GRADUALLY COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S. RELAXED EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW VEER AND
BECOMES ROBUST FRI...ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF WITH SOME HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SLACKEN SOME
WITH A NORTHERN COMPONENT. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WHERE VERY SIMILAR
UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THERE WERE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...MAINLY
TIMING AND LOCATIONS. IN THOSE CASES LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
CMC.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHES OF STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 4KFT. WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY.
&&
.MARINE...
1025MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE BRIEFLY REACHING
CAUTIONARY LEVELS IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN FALL BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
WINDS AND WAVES APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY LATER THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 63 83 67 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 81 62 84 67 / 0 0 10 0
GIF 80 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 81 60 83 66 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 80 55 83 60 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 79 66 82 70 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...829 PM CST
LOTS OF WX CONCERNS AS VIGOROUS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RACES ESE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT 01Z SURFACE LOW WAS JUST SOUTH
OF KLSE WITH AND MOVING EASTWARD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY
KILX/KDVN SOUNDINGS HAVE RESULTED IN A GOOD DEAL OF THIS PRECIP
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP DOWN SATURATION SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASING OF SCTD SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD FOR TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SCTD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PERSISTED AS ITS MOVED ACROSS IOWA AND SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 130KT+ 250MB JET THAT IS DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND HELPING CARVE OUT AND SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG ASCENT IN THAT LEFT EXIT REGION HAS COINCIDED NICELY WITH A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING ADVECTED
EASTWARD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING THE
ISOLD THUNDER. RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT MOVING IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SO WE HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT SOUTHERN CWA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN...THOUGH SOME SCTD MORE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE NIPPED AWAY AT POPS A BIT TOMORROW.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
ABOUT 5MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS
WITH LOCAL WRF ARW AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING A BULLSEYE OF 4-5MB/3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MIDDAY. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW TO NNW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE SO HELD OFF ON AN ADV MOST
AREAS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE THE ADDED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS
AND LESS FRICTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. THE HIGH
END GALE TO BRIEFLY NEAR STORM FORCE NW-NNW WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WAVES
ALONG EASTERN LAKE CO IN AND PORTER COUNTY INTO THE 14-18FT RANGE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY. THE
DUNES NOTED THAT THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE FROM THE HALLOWEEN
STORM AND THAT STORM ALSO WASHED AWAY A LOT OF THE SAND BARS THAT
TYPICALLY OFFER UP PROTECTION IN THESE EVENTS...WHICH MEANS AREAS
COULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PROBLEMS WITH TOMORROW`S HIGH WIND/WAVE
EVENT.
FINALLY...LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MOST
AREAS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND SHOULD RESULT IN
GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
IZZI/KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
245 PM...TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IL SHORE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF IOWA WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TOWARD MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BUT AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
EVENING...SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA IS FAIRLY LOW BUT IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE MINOR.
THE STRONGER GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR QUITE A WINDY DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 35 MPH RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
245 PM...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT AFTER STARTING WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE FRIDAY. GENERALLY HAVE MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET WARMER THAN THAT.
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK SOUTHERLY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY WITH
TIMING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT TIMING
WILL DEPEND ON ANY POTENTIAL NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS. INITIALLY...THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS PRECIP IS
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT AT THE MOMENT...QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO...OR POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 35
KT TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME NOTABLE AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARDOUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 28 HOURS. BY FAR THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ONSETTING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...BEFORE ABATING LATE. IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR CIGS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04 UTC
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE
SOME AS THE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME DEEPER MIXING ONSET BY LATE
MORNING...SO VERY LOW CIGS LOOK UNLIKELY BY LATE MORNING. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THOUGH THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH WITH CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLT CHANCE OF SHRA FRI NGT. LIGHT WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. CHANCE OF A RA/SN
SHOWER MIX MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES MIDDAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50KT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH EAST THIS EVENING...APPROACHING CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 15-25KT
FROM THE SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST 15-20KT...AGAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW. THEN AS THE LOW
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT BRIEFLY
DIMINISHES WITH WINDS DECREASING TEMPORARILY. THEN AS THE LOW SLIDES
EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
QUICK ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE
THE GALES FIRST...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE. THE PRESSURE RISES ARE THE STRONGEST
MIDDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...WHERE GALES COULD
APPROACH 45 KT. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KT MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 11AM-4PM THUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY FRI. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...BUT WITH THE NORTH FETCH EXPECT
ELEVATED WAVES ALONG THE INDIANA AND PERHAPS ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY FRIDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
ITS TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS RIGHT OVER THE
LAKE. SEVERAL MORE LOWS WILL IMPACT THE LAKE BEYOND THIS TIME...WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...NOON THURSDAY TO 10
PM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...8 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...8 AM THURSDAY TO 9
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
833 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
829 PM CST
LOTS OF WX CONCERNS AS VIGOROUS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RACES ESE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT 01Z SURFACE LOW WAS JUST SOUTH
OF KLSE WITH AND MOVING EASTWARD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY
KILX/KDVN SOUNDINGS HAVE RESULTED IN A GOOD DEAL OF THIS PRECIP
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP DOWN SATURATION SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASING OF SCTD SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD FOR TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SCTD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PERSISTED AS ITS MOVED ACROSS IOWA AND SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 130KT+ 250MB JET THAT IS DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND HELPING CARVE OUT AND SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG ASCENT IN THAT LEFT EXIT REGION HAS COINCIDED NICELY WITH A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING ADVECTED
EASTWARD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING THE
ISOLD THUNDER. RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT MOVING IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SO WE HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT SOUTHERN CWA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN...THOUGH SOME SCTD MORE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE NIPPED AWAY AT POPS A BIT TOMORROW.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
ABOUT 5MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS
WITH LOCAL WRF ARW AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING A BULLSEYE OF 4-5MB/3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MIDDAY. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW TO NNW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE SO HELD OFF ON AN ADV MOST
AREAS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE THE ADDED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS
AND LESS FRICTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. THE HIGH
END GALE TO BRIEFLY NEAR STORM FORCE NW-NNW WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WAVES
ALONG EASTERN LAKE CO IN AND PORTER COUNTY INTO THE 14-18FT RANGE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY. THE
DUNES NOTED THAT THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE FROM THE HALLOWEEN
STORM AND THAT STORM ALSO WASHED AWAY A LOT OF THE SAND BARS THAT
TYPICALLY OFFER UP PROTECTION IN THESE EVENTS...WHICH MEANS AREAS
COULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PROBLEMS WITH TOMORROW`S HIGH WIND/WAVE
EVENT.
FINALLY...LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MOST
AREAS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND SHOULD RESULT IN
GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
IZZI/KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
245 PM...TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IL SHORE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF IOWA WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TOWARD MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BUT AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
EVENING...SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA IS FAIRLY LOW BUT IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE MINOR.
THE STRONGER GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR QUITE A WINDY DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 35 MPH RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
245 PM...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT AFTER STARTING WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE FRIDAY. GENERALLY HAVE MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET WARMER THAN THAT.
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK SOUTHERLY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY WITH
TIMING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT TIMING
WILL DEPEND ON ANY POTENTIAL NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS. INITIALLY...THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS PRECIP IS
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT AT THE MOMENT...QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO...OR POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 35
KT TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME NOTABLE AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARDOUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 28 HOURS. BY FAR THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ONSETTING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...BEFORE ABATING LATE. IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR CIGS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04 UTC
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE
SOME AS THE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME DEEPER MIXING ONSET BY LATE
MORNING...SO VERY LOW CIGS LOOK UNLIKELY BY LATE MORNING. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THOUGH THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH WITH CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLT CHANCE OF SHRA FRI NGT. LIGHT WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. CHANCE OF A RA/SN
SHOWER MIX MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES MIDDAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50KT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH EAST THIS EVENING...APPROACHING CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 15-25KT
FROM THE SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST 15-20KT...AGAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW. THEN AS THE LOW
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT BRIEFLY
DIMINISHES WITH WINDS DECREASING TEMPORARILY. THEN AS THE LOW SLIDES
EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
QUICK ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE
THE GALES FIRST...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE. THE PRESSURE RISES ARE THE STRONGEST
MIDDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...WHERE GALES COULD
APPROACH 45 KT. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KT MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 11AM-4PM THUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY FRI. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...BUT WITH THE NORTH FETCH EXPECT
ELEVATED WAVES ALONG THE INDIANA AND PERHAPS ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY FRIDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
ITS TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS RIGHT OVER THE
LAKE. SEVERAL MORE LOWS WILL IMPACT THE LAKE BEYOND THIS TIME...WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...NOON THURSDAY TO 10
PM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...8 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...6 AM
THURSDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...8 AM THURSDAY TO 9
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1204 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CST
THE PARADE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PUT THE AREA ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS INTO NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD LATE THIS WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT TRANQUIL
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW STRETCHING FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO
HUDSON BAY. A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH
THE NORTHERN PORTION PIVOTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA HELPING TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO ITS SOUTH WITH THE TWO
CONSOLIDATING TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING WHILE THE TWO SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLEAR TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY OR SO.
A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BACK INTO MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRAIL THE MORE SOLID BAND AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL BE DONE IN MOST
AREAS BY MIDDAY WITH FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS SEEING SOME LINGERING RAIN
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH H85 TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND +2C BY LATE DAY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR THE DAY WITH INCOMING COOL ADVECTION TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AREAS LOSE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY HELP OFFSET THIS. VERY WEAK RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AND DIMINISHING BUT PROBABLY NOT GOING CALM FOR MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS
BEFORE THINGS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUPPLYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS WARMING TO +5-6C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 BY THE OVERNIGHT. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE DEFORMATION/WRAPAROUND PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. WILL STICK WITH THE
IDEA THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME A CHALLENGE.
EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
FOR A TIME BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION THOUGH
SOME SLUSH COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS IF THINGS GO TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY BUT BE SHUNTED EASTWARD BY ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEELS. THESE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODEST MODERATION OF TEMPS INTO THE
40S WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST AND ENERGY OVERTOPS IT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE WARM
ADVECTION TO FOR MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH SOME MIX COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL COME ANOTHER PUSH
OF COLD AIR SATURDAY NIGHT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10. BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY LEADING TO A
DRY DAY BUT HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BREAK IT DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO A BRIEFLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHARP COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREES WITH TIMING. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THAT
GREAT HOWEVER OTHER THAN SHOWING ANOTHER BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR. HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD PUSH BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT
HAPPENS IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LEADING UP
TO THAT AS WELL AS IF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARND 2KFT AGL IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS BY 19Z.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25KT THRU THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...DIMINISHING
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ARND 10KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH WINDS THEN SLOWLY TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY ARND DAYBREAK WED. THE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO ARND 8-10KT. IN ADDITION PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT WITH A CONTINUED CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD THIS
AFTN/TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...SHRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SHSN AND IFR POSSIBLE LATE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN FRI NGT. WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS CRUISING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
REACH THE LAKE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE ONTO HUDSON BAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS ANOTHER LOW RAPIDLY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT WILL SLOW AND
DEEPEN BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLIES
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST LATER THURSDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL YET
AGAIN QUICKLY BUILD WINDS AND WAVES...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF GALES IS STILL ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
BACK IN.
EXPECT A PARADE OF LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPEATING A PATTERN OF INCREASED SOUTHERLIES FOLLOWED BY COLD
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME REGULARITY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Cold front is located roughly along the I-55 corridor at 9 am,
with the back edge of the rain shield located along it. Rain
covers about the southeast half of the CWA except the extreme
southeast tip near Lawrenceville, where dry air has limited the
progression thus far, but rain should be more steady down there
soon. Low level jet has been spreading the rain northeast from
southern Missouri. The jet trajectory will shift south of the
forecast area early this afternoon, with some breaks in the rain
developing as the afternoon progresses. Latest RAP model guidance
shows a slow eastward progression of the front to near the Indiana
border by sunset. Large area of clearing off to the northwest in
Iowa, but guidance showing the large cirrus shield keeping our
skies mainly cloudy, except closer to sunset northwest of the
Illinois River.
Updated zones/grids were sent earlier to reflect the latest rain
trends, and to make some minor adjustments to the temperature
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain has spread across the western half of the KILX CWA early this
morning in advance of a slow-moving cold front. Radar mosaic is
showing mainly very light rain across the area: however, an
approaching 120kt 300mb jet streak is enhancing the precip upstream
across central/southern Missouri. This larger area of light to
moderate rain will spread northeastward and impact areas along/east
of the I-55 corridor later this morning. As a result, have hit PoPs
hardest across the eastern half of the CWA, with only chance PoPs
further west across the Illinois River Valley. As cold front pushes
into the area, rain chances will gradually shift further eastward as
the day progresses. By afternoon, dry weather is anticipated
along/west of I-55, with showers continuing further east. Due to
the clouds and showers, high temperatures today will be a bit
cooler than yesterday, with readings remaining in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
A parade of fast-moving storm systems will impact the Midwest
through the extended, resulting in below normal temperatures and
periodic rain chances. After a warm/dry day on Wednesday, the first
northern stream short-wave will approach Wednesday night into
Thursday. Models have been consistent with the track and timing of
this feature for the past few runs, with surface low tracking from
North Dakota Wednesday morning to Lake Erie by Thursday evening.
Given this particular track, strongest lift will remain north of
central Illinois: however, clouds and showers will spill into the
area late Wednesday night and particularly during the day Thursday.
Winds will increase markedly as the low passes by to the north, with
forecast soundings suggesting N/NW winds gusting to around 30 mph on
Thursday. These gusty winds combined with temperatures hovering in
the 40s will produce wind-chills in the 20s at times. Wave departs
the region Thursday night, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some
lingering precip across the eastern CWA through the evening hours.
With surface temps dropping into the 30s and 850mb temps in the -2
to -4C range, may see a light rain/snow mix along/east of I-57
before precip pulls eastward into Indiana by midnight.
Another temporary lull in the precip chances will occur on Friday,
as high pressure brings cool/dry weather with high temperatures in
the 50s. The second in a series of short-waves will quickly
approach from the northwest Friday night into Saturday, spreading
clouds and showers back into the region. Temperatures will once
again struggle to get out of the 40s on Saturday, thanks to the
clouds and precip. Will need to keep an eye on the timing of the
departing wave, because if it lingers long enough, may see a light
rain/snow mix Saturday evening before precip ends. At this point,
will leave mention out of the forecast.
After that, yet another wave will track across the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front through Illinois on
Monday. With best upper support staying to the north and moisture
somewhat limited, models are keeping this system fairly dry across
the area. Will only mention slight chance PoPs across the north on
Monday, with continued below normal temps mainly in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Cold front is about to pass through KCMI with winds shifting to
the west-northwest. Steady rain and IFR conditions have been found
immediately ahead of this front, but with passage of the front,
conditions will quickly improve. The winds will already trend
toward the southwest again this evening and more southerly on
Wednesday morning. Some concern for a bit of visibility
restriction later tonight with the recent rain and winds becoming
lighter. Right now, will go with a TEMPO 5SM group for KDEC/KCMI
only, as the TAF sites further west will have a slightly tighter
pressure gradient to help keep the winds up a bit more.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1024 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CST
THE PARADE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PUT THE AREA ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS INTO NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD LATE THIS WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT TRANQUIL
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW STRETCHING FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO
HUDSON BAY. A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH
THE NORTHERN PORTION PIVOTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA HELPING TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO ITS SOUTH WITH THE TWO
CONSOLIDATING TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING WHILE THE TWO SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLEAR TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY OR SO.
A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BACK INTO MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRAIL THE MORE SOLID BAND AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL BE DONE IN MOST
AREAS BY MIDDAY WITH FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS SEEING SOME LINGERING RAIN
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH H85 TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND +2C BY LATE DAY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR THE DAY WITH INCOMING COOL ADVECTION TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AREAS LOSE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY HELP OFFSET THIS. VERY WEAK RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AND DIMINISHING BUT PROBABLY NOT GOING CALM FOR MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS
BEFORE THINGS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUPPLYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS WARMING TO +5-6C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 BY THE OVERNIGHT. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE DEFORMATION/WRAPAROUND PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. WILL STICK WITH THE
IDEA THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME A CHALLENGE.
EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
FOR A TIME BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION THOUGH
SOME SLUSH COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS IF THINGS GO TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY BUT BE SHUNTED EASTWARD BY ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEELS. THESE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODEST MODERATION OF TEMPS INTO THE
40S WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST AND ENERGY OVERTOPS IT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE WARM
ADVECTION TO FOR MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH SOME MIX COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL COME ANOTHER PUSH
OF COLD AIR SATURDAY NIGHT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10. BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY LEADING TO A
DRY DAY BUT HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BREAK IT DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO A BRIEFLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHARP COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREES WITH TIMING. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THAT
GREAT HOWEVER OTHER THAN SHOWING ANOTHER BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR. HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD PUSH BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT
HAPPENS IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LEADING UP
TO THAT AS WELL AS IF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 24KT.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BEFORE 17Z.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
COLD FRONT IS ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS WITH THE MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. CLOSER TO THE FRONT IS MORE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS A NARROW LINE
AND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. CIGS ARE GENERALLY LOWERING TO
LOWER END MVFR. IFR TO THE WEST HAS NOT GENERALLY BEEN HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR VERY LONG. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ALL THAT
WOULD OCCUR AT THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
FEELING IT IT STAYS CONFINED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHERE DEWPOINT
POOLING ALLOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSSION TO DIP A BIT MORE.
SOME MIXING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WEST WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT BACK TO VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL...THOUGH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INITIALLY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING.
FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WINDS STAY UP ENOUGH FOR NO
FOG...BUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...SHRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SHSN AND IFR POSSIBLE LATE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN FRI NGT. WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS CRUISING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
REACH THE LAKE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE ONTO HUDSON BAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS ANOTHER LOW RAPIDLY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT WILL SLOW AND
DEEPEN BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLIES
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST LATER THURSDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL YET
AGAIN QUICKLY BUILD WINDS AND WAVES...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF GALES IS STILL ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
BACK IN.
EXPECT A PARADE OF LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPEATING A PATTERN OF INCREASED SOUTHERLIES FOLLOWED BY COLD
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME REGULARITY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
946 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Cold front is located roughly along the I-55 corridor at 9 am,
with the back edge of the rain shield located along it. Rain
covers about the southeast half of the CWA except the extreme
southeast tip near Lawrenceville, where dry air has limited the
progression thus far, but rain should be more steady down there
soon. Low level jet has been spreading the rain northeast from
southern Missouri. The jet trajectory will shift south of the
forecast area early this afternoon, with some breaks in the rain
developing as the afternoon progresses. Latest RAP model guidance
shows a slow eastward progression of the front to near the Indiana
border by sunset. Large area of clearing off to the northwest in
Iowa, but guidance showing the large cirrus shield keeping our
skies mainly cloudy, except closer to sunset northwest of the
Illinois River.
Updated zones/grids were sent earlier to reflect the latest rain
trends, and to make some minor adjustments to the temperature
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain has spread across the western half of the KILX CWA early this
morning in advance of a slow-moving cold front. Radar mosaic is
showing mainly very light rain across the area: however, an
approaching 120kt 300mb jet streak is enhancing the precip upstream
across central/southern Missouri. This larger area of light to
moderate rain will spread northeastward and impact areas along/east
of the I-55 corridor later this morning. As a result, have hit PoPs
hardest across the eastern half of the CWA, with only chance PoPs
further west across the Illinois River Valley. As cold front pushes
into the area, rain chances will gradually shift further eastward as
the day progresses. By afternoon, dry weather is anticipated
along/west of I-55, with showers continuing further east. Due to
the clouds and showers, high temperatures today will be a bit
cooler than yesterday, with readings remaining in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
A parade of fast-moving storm systems will impact the Midwest
through the extended, resulting in below normal temperatures and
periodic rain chances. After a warm/dry day on Wednesday, the first
northern stream short-wave will approach Wednesday night into
Thursday. Models have been consistent with the track and timing of
this feature for the past few runs, with surface low tracking from
North Dakota Wednesday morning to Lake Erie by Thursday evening.
Given this particular track, strongest lift will remain north of
central Illinois: however, clouds and showers will spill into the
area late Wednesday night and particularly during the day Thursday.
Winds will increase markedly as the low passes by to the north, with
forecast soundings suggesting N/NW winds gusting to around 30 mph on
Thursday. These gusty winds combined with temperatures hovering in
the 40s will produce wind-chills in the 20s at times. Wave departs
the region Thursday night, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some
lingering precip across the eastern CWA through the evening hours.
With surface temps dropping into the 30s and 850mb temps in the -2
to -4C range, may see a light rain/snow mix along/east of I-57
before precip pulls eastward into Indiana by midnight.
Another temporary lull in the precip chances will occur on Friday,
as high pressure brings cool/dry weather with high temperatures in
the 50s. The second in a series of short-waves will quickly
approach from the northwest Friday night into Saturday, spreading
clouds and showers back into the region. Temperatures will once
again struggle to get out of the 40s on Saturday, thanks to the
clouds and precip. Will need to keep an eye on the timing of the
departing wave, because if it lingers long enough, may see a light
rain/snow mix Saturday evening before precip ends. At this point,
will leave mention out of the forecast.
After that, yet another wave will track across the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front through Illinois on
Monday. With best upper support staying to the north and moisture
somewhat limited, models are keeping this system fairly dry across
the area. Will only mention slight chance PoPs across the north on
Monday, with continued below normal temps mainly in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain will continue to move across the region today. This pcpn will
effect all TAF sites except for PIA. The frontal zone and
associated pcpn will slowly move east this morning. So, have pcpn
ending at all sites, from west to east, by 18z. Once pcpn ends,
all that is left is for some mid clouds during the afternoon, and
then have high cirrus clouds after that. Cloud heights will lower
into the MVFR category as the pcpn continues this morning, but
sometime later this morning, once the pcpn ends and the front
moves east, cigs will rise back into the VFR range. Some obs west
of the TAF sites have IFR cigs. Believe if any IFR cigs arrive
early this morning, it will be brief and only worthy of a TEMPO
group; which I have added for all sites for about 4hrs during the
morning hours. Winds will become west-northwest once the front
passes, but then back a little to more west-southwest during the
late afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT FIRST...BUT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND
EXTRAPOLATION/NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA GRADUALLY THIS MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
A LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND DOWN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WITH COLD FRONT NOT FAR
BEHIND.
PRECIP SHOULD START ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE 08-09Z. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
TUE 12Z-WED 00Z WILL SUPPORT LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD AS FRONT TRAVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...A BLEND OF MODELS SEEMED LIKE BEST OPTION SINCE THE GFS
WAS A TAD TOO WARM...AND THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO COLD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND UP TO 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND THEN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA.
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AFTER WED
06Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THAT POINT...
A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD INTERACT WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER CHANCE POPS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH AND BE OVER OHIO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. SO...HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 914 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIND SO UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT
THIS. RAIN IS NEARBY BUT MOVEMENT OF RAIN INDICATES THAT IT MAY TAKE
LONGER FOR STEADIER RAIN TO ARRIVE AT KIND SO DELAYED START.
WHEN RAIN ARRIVES VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 6SM AT TIMES. ALSO MAY
HAVE TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS LOWER THAN BKN020 IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SAG
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY...RESULTING RAIN SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
TROPICS. GOOD FORCING ALSO IS AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CCLS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1.5-2K FT. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH THE LATEST HRRR HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AFT 00Z-03Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
914 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT FIRST...BUT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
A LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND DOWN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WITH COLD FRONT NOT FAR
BEHIND.
PRECIP SHOULD START ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE 08-09Z. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
TUE 12Z-WED 00Z WILL SUPPORT LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD AS FRONT TRAVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...A BLEND OF MODELS SEEMED LIKE BEST OPTION SINCE THE GFS
WAS A TAD TOO WARM...AND THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO COLD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND UP TO 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND THEN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA.
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AFTER WED
06Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THAT POINT...
A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD INTERACT WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER CHANCE POPS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH AND BE OVER OHIO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. SO...HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 914 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIND SO UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT
THIS. RAIN IS NEARBY BUT MOVEMENT OF RAIN INDICATES THAT IT MAY TAKE
LONGER FOR STEADIER RAIN TO ARRIVE AT KIND SO DELAYED START.
WHEN RAIN ARRIVES VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 6SM AT TIMES. ALSO MAY
HAVE TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS LOWER THAN BKN020 IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SAG
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY...RESULTING RAIN SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
TROPICS. GOOD FORCING ALSO IS AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CCLS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1.5-2K FT. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH THE LATEST HRRR HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AFT 00Z-03Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
548 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT FIRST...BUT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
A LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND DOWN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WITH COLD FRONT NOT FAR
BEHIND.
PRECIP SHOULD START ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE 08-09Z. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
TUE 12Z-WED 00Z WILL SUPPORT LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD AS FRONT TRAVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...A BLEND OF MODELS SEEMED LIKE BEST OPTION SINCE THE GFS
WAS A TAD TOO WARM...AND THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO COLD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND UP TO 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND THEN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA.
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AFTER WED
06Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THAT POINT...
A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD INTERACT WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER CHANCE POPS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH AND BE OVER OHIO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. SO...HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SAG
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY...RESULTING RAIN SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
TROPICS. GOOD FORCING ALSO IS AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CCLS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1.5-2K FT. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH THE LATEST HRRR HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AFT 00Z-03Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING VALUES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HRRR
AND RUC FIELDS INDICATE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GO WITH POPS AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BY 12Z...WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME
NORTHWEST WITH LOWER POPS REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARMER THAN MOS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
READINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PROGS SHOW ADEQUATE THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE FORCING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
THUS WENT LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TIMED THEM AS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
BLEND OF MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH SOME CLEARING NORTHWEST AND
CLOUDY/CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THAT FRONT.
THIS MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. KEPT LOW POPS THERE DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WENT
DRY...BUT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT LOW POPS ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THE
MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS STRONGEST FORCING MIGHT NOT BE ALIGNED WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE. THUS KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOWER VFR CIGS IN WESTERN
INDIANA BEING OBSERVED AND EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON. LATEST HRRR
ALSO LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE FOR PRECIP REACHING IND AFTER
12Z...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 13-14Z...AGAIN ONGOING TAF HANDLES THIS
WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EAST SO FAR THIS EVENING BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT
STRATOCU TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE HOOSIER
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WITH A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE ALOFT...SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS ALL NIGHT.
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING BULK OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF KLAF
AND KHUF UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH AN EXPANSION EAST TO KBMG AND
KIND CLOSER TO MIDDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATING
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STEADIER SHOWERS AND REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL END AT KLAF PRIOR TO SUNSET... WITH RAIN ENDING AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
W/SW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLEARING PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING VALUES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HRRR
AND RUC FIELDS INDICATE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GO WITH POPS AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BY 12Z...WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME
NORTHWEST WITH LOWER POPS REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARMER THAN MOS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
READINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PROGS SHOW ADEQUATE THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE FORCING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
THUS WENT LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TIMED THEM AS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
BLEND OF MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH SOME CLEARING NORTHWEST AND
CLOUDY/CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THAT FRONT.
THIS MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. KEPT LOW POPS THERE DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WENT
DRY...BUT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT LOW POPS ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THE
MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS STRONGEST FORCING MIGHT NOT BE ALIGNED WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE. THUS KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EAST SO FAR THIS EVENING BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT
STRATOCU TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE HOOSIER
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WITH A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE ALOFT...SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS ALL NIGHT.
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING BULK OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF KLAF
AND KHUF UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH AN EXPANSION EAST TO KBMG AND
KIND CLOSER TO MIDDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATING
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STEADIER SHOWERS AND REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL END AT KLAF PRIOR TO SUNSET... WITH RAIN ENDING AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
W/SW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLEARING PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING VALUES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HRRR
AND RUC FIELDS INDICATE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GO WITH POPS AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BY 12Z...WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME
NORTHWEST WITH LOWER POPS REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARMER THAN MOS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
READINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PROGS SHOW ADEQUATE THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE FORCING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
THUS WENT LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TIMED THEM AS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
BLEND OF MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH SOME CLEARING NORTHWEST AND
CLOUDY/CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THAT FRONT.
THIS MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. KEPT LOW POPS THERE DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WENT
DRY...BUT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT LOW POPS ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THE
MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS STRONGEST FORCING MIGHT NOT BE ALIGNED WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE. THUS KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TIMING OF POPS AS THREE
SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN VARYING DEGREES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION.
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE GFS HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN EAST COAST.
THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO MOVE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
QPF TO THE EAST AS ITS 06Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
PREFER TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS GOING PER THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
THIS AND CONSISTENCY REASONS. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER OF ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER FEATURE
WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS WITH LOW LEVEL MODEL THICKNESSES
PLAYING TUG OF WAR WITH THE LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN ONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY BUT THEN MODELS
COME INTO DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH...THEY ALL BRING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAD MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE DRIER MOISTURE FIELD OF THE ECMWF WAS
LAGGING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE GFS HAS SOME QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND DO
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL THE MODELS COME
TOGETHER MORE.
WITH MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONLY BRIEF BREAKS...WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S PER REGIONAL
BLEND LOOK GOOD. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...SHOULD NOT SEE A
HUGE DROP IN NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY LOWS IN THE 30S A
GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EAST SO FAR THIS EVENING BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT
STRATOCU TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE HOOSIER
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WITH A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE ALOFT...SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS ALL NIGHT.
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING BULK OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF KLAF
AND KHUF UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH AN EXPANSION EAST TO KBMG AND
KIND CLOSER TO MIDDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATING
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STEADIER SHOWERS AND REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL END AT KLAF PRIOR TO SUNSET... WITH RAIN ENDING AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
W/SW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLEARING PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
605 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CLEAR SKIES OF THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WAS GRADUALLY BEING MOISTENED BY VIRGA AND SOME SPRINKLES
WERE REPORTED AT THE OFFICE. A BAND OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WERE ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LOW TO MID 60S WERE REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WAS LOCATED THE LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME RASN IN
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SW MN...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE MSAS THE
PRESSURE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. ANALYZING THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGESTS THAT CONSALL AND BCCONSALL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CWA. AS
SUCH THE BEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THAT THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF BOTH SUGGEST PRECIP WITH
FROPA. A DECENT RADAR ECHO TO THE WEST MAKES ME THINK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY. WITH THE
SPRINKLES EARLIER AND THE HRRR RUNS...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
NEAR MORNING THE CAA PUMPS INTO THE AREA AND LEADS TO COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. IF PRECIP IS FALLING ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE...SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. DECIDED TO ADD SOME RASN IN THOSE COUNTIES AND
EVEN DUBUQUE COUNTY UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TO THE EAST THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND WILL LEAD
TO A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS WI AND IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TOMORROW. MOST
GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 35 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN LATER
IN THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE A MORE VOLATILE TURN DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AM EXPECTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI RIVER
VALLEY...YIELDING LOWS IN THE 22-28 DEGREE RANGE.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATES A WEAK FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ACROSS THE
NORTH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PHASING
ISSUES PERSIST AMONG THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SCENARIO IS LOW. TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF/GEM FAVOR A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MEANS WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND COLDER...WITH A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. PHASING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RESOLVE...AND WITH HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 5 DAYS OUT...WILL NOT
STRAY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY`S
HIGHS IS 45-55...WHICH LEAVES SOME WIGGLE ROOM EITHER WAY. POPS
RANGE FROM LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH...TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
VIGOROUS AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO SPILL INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS NEXT 18-24 HOURS
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS NORTH SECTIONS BY MORNING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 MPH BY MID EVENING. SKIES TO BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT CID TERMINAL BY 06/22Z. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1057 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN SFC SYSTEM JUST SW OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
FORCING BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH THETAE ADVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KS HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER EASTERN KS. BOTH MESO SCALE
MODELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE HAVE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SHIFTING EAST OVER OUR AREA
WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BOTH EXPANDING THE SHOWERS WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN MOVING OUT THE SHOWERS BY 07Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH
HAVE BEEN DRY MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SATURATED BY 00Z AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z
WEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 06-07Z
OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
THROUGH 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR BY MORNING. MIXING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP MINS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BEYOND THE MID 30S OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...MINS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO FLUCTUATE ON STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ONLY CERTAINTY IS TIMING AND SOME OF THE THERMAL TRENDS AS ALL
MODELS SHOWING SUBSEQUENT PUSHES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST COMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE END AND JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...SO STILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LIKELIES GOING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS THEN BRIEFLY PUSH BACK INTO THE CWA WITH BRIEF RIDGING
ALOFT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONGER WAVE THEN DIGGING INTO THE REGION FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS AGAIN REVERTING BACK TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS KIND OF
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...VERSUS THE DEEP TROUGH FROM
RUNS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUIDANCE CHANCE POPS
DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT/STRENGTH. DECENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO AGAIN COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALSO FALLING TEMPS LOOK
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...FOR NOW HAVE JUST STUCK WITH ONLY SMALL DIURNAL RISES AT
THIS TIME.
MAIN DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS THE EC DIGS ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
US AS THE WAVE REMAINS WEAKER AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SAME PATH AS
THE OTHER IMPACTING MORE OF THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOVE
VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -10C OR COLDER BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR AT LEAST A MAJOR
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE...AND IF THE EC IS CORRECT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
FRONT CROSSING THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING AND LOW
CEILINGS IMPROVING. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE OFF BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING AS MUCH COLDER
AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR NW GALES OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALE LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP
SETS UP...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF ????-????IN OVER
THE SOUTERN PART OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST
COMES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING
ALOFT...THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR THAT WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z
RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS
WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS
FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
SNOW TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1
RANGE...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO
THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE. THIS COULD BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH
OR TWO...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH
SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WOULD EXPECT TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. THUS...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL ISSUES AND CONTINUE THE MENTION
IN THE HWO. IT APPEARS THERE MAY NEED TO BE AN ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE COMING SHIFTS.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
642 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED KIWD/KCMX AND WILL PASS KSAW IN THE
NEXT HR. THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT INCREASED MIXING UNDER COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP CIGS RISE INTO THE HIGHER MVFR RANGE DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. AT KSAW...INITIAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR SOON AFTER FROPA AND THEN HIGHER MVFR BY LATE
MORNING. WHILE KSAW WILL IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR THIS AFTN...
KCMX/KIWD PROBABLY WON`T SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY GENERATE
-SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
/PRELIMINARY LONG TERM/
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY LINGERING
LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR LAKE MI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EAST OF MARQUETTE ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1241 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE
WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH)
AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z
MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD
ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT
COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70
PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1035 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AMD NOT SKED FOR TCC WITH CONTINUING PROBLEM WITH CIG
SENSORS...BUT GOOD OBSERVATIONS SO FAR FROM AEG FOR CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT FULL TAF SERVICE. TROUGH CLOSING INTO LOW OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD TO BOOT HEEL TO TCC
LINE...AND SFC LOW MOVES TO THE TX BIG BEND COUNTRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND THEN EAST...WITH EASTERLY GUSTS
THROUGH CENTRAL MT CHAIN GAPS SQUIRTING OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. UP SLOPE FLOW WILL INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ON EAST
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT...TRAPPING IN CLOUD
COVER...MT OBSCURATION...AND KEEPING SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS OVER
SOUTHEAST NM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18Z ONWARD PAST
SUNDOWN TUESDAY.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1019 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.UPDATE...
REALLY TOUGH DECISION TO MAKE...BUT AFTER LOOKING AT CLOUD
TRENDS...LATEST MODEL DATA...THE APPEARANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IN SOCORRO COUNTY...PROSPECT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONSULTING WITH SENIOR FORECASTER...FELT IT WAS BEST TO CANCEL
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...GUADALUPE
COUNTY AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. KEPT HARD FREEZE WARNING
GOING IN SANTA FE AS THE AIRPORT THERE WAS ALREADY AT 32 DEGREES
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS THERE AS OF 10 PM. ALSO INCREASED/EXPANDED
POPS A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS IN AND NEAR SOCORRO COUNTY.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES
SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY
HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT
POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY
BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN.
THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF
GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO
UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP
QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK
THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO
DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER
NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT
MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE
REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF
THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH
TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT
OR GREATER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1019 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
REALLY TOUGH DECISION TO MAKE...BUT AFTER LOOKING AT CLOUD
TRENDS...LATEST MODEL DATA...THE APPEARANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IN SOCORRO COUNTY...PROSPECT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONSULTING WITH SENIOR FORECASTER...FELT IT WAS BEST TO CANCEL
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...GUADALUPE
COUNTY AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. KEPT HARD FREEZE WARNING
GOING IN SANTA FE AS THE AIRPORT THERE WAS ALREADY AT 32 DEGREES
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS THERE AS OF 10 PM. ALSO INCREASED/EXPANDED
POPS A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS IN AND NEAR SOCORRO COUNTY.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...458 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA MAINTAINING GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION ON TAP
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z TUE WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY IN ITS
WAKE...WITH EASTERLY PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND
OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 15Z TUE. WITH TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE THROUGH 00Z ON TUE...CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. TCC WILL HAVE NO AMD SKED DUE TO
CONTINUED EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. WILL WATCH AEG FOR POSSIBLE
EQUIPMENT ISSUES FROM 0415Z ONWARD THIS EVENING.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES
SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY
HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT
POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY
BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN.
THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF
GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO
UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP
QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK
THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO
DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER
NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT
MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE
REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF
THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH
TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT
OR GREATER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
951 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AS OF 0345 UTC...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS
JUST CLEARED HIGHWAY 83. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OF THE BACK EDGE AS ADDITIONAL STRATUS ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE...AS WINDS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALSO...FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE 20-22 UTC
RAP AND SATELLITE...HELD STRATUS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...ALSO
BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL MOSTLY WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...MVFR-IFR
CLOUDS REMAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM SHERWOOD AND
BOTTINEAU SOUTHEAST THROUGH RUGBY AND HARVEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID DEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
03 UTC. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID
GET A REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM ROLLA THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN STRONG
SUBSIDENT FLOW. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. DID SEE A GUST TO 53 MPH AT GLEN ULLIN THIS
PAST HOUR. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM CST BUT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CENTRAL/5 MOUNTAIN. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER
WISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO A COLDER REGIME SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING LAKE WINNIPEG BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...AND ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY NOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS
AT 45 KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH 35 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 45 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON
BAY LOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE...WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY FROM THE 30S AND 40S...TO HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS DRY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MVFR STRATUS HAS JUST CLEARED KMOT/KBIS AND WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KJMS...WITH FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ALL BUT ENDED...AND SWITCHED THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN FA TO JUST FLURRIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
HOLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (AND KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOUDY...PLUS THERE ARE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANYWAY). MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BEGIN ERODING FROM THE
WEST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING SECOND WAVE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF
FARGO..OUT OF THE AREA AND THE END OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. OVERALL THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN DECENT TODAY UNTIL 18Z AND 19Z
RUNS...WHICH KEPT HIGH POPS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOO LONG.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PULL THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER THE AREA INCREASES. A VORT
MAX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS HELPING GENERATE THE SECOND
WAVE OF PRECIP IN E CNTRL ND...WHICH CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER
BASICALLY THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BENSON
COUNTY ND TO WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY MN WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AROUND WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ELEVATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFT 03Z IN
EASTERN ND AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z...THUS EXPECT
PRECIP TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WINDS/MIXING SHOULD BE LIGHT...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
RATHER COOL...IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CNTRL
DAKOTAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS LIGHT MIXING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER WILL SPREAD PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INDICATING DRIZZLE
AS H700 LEVEL IS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER BY 15Z PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MODEST
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER AN EARLY HIGH AROUND 50. COOLER AIR
PULLED DOWN FROM CANADA MAY HELP TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...WINDS/MIXING DECREASE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...BRING DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA ARE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST
THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR SAGS AND HOW FAST. FOR SATURDAY THE INITIAL
BLAST WILL ONLY GRAZE OUR AREA...WITH 140KT TO 15KT 250MB JET OVER
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
FOR SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH...AS WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT. MODELS BREAK
OUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NORTH OF THIS ZONE. BASED ON 925MB
- 850 THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS LIGHT RAIN IS BEST BET.
FOR MONDAY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
LOWERING THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ON TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE...SIMILARLY PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF /
GFS/DGEX/GEM-NH...DROPS ACROSS THE CWFA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROP
TO 510DAM OR LOWER. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...925 TEMPS AROUND -10C
AND ARCTIC SCUD SUSPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR 0F QUITE POSSIBLE.
CALMER...DRIER AND UNSEASONALLY COLD WEATHER ENDS THIS PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
ONCE THE SNOW BAND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...EXPECT A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT TOTALLY SURE IF CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT...SO MOISTURE COULD GET TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
646 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
WE WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THE SNOW BAND...BUT THE GRIDS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF THURSDAY...SO WILL INCREASE SKY GRIDS A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING SECOND WAVE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF
FARGO..OUT OF THE AREA AND THE END OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. OVERALL THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN DECENT TODAY UNTIL 18Z AND 19Z
RUNS...WHICH KEPT HIGH POPS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOO LONG.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PULL THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER THE AREA INCREASES. A VORT
MAX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS HELPING GENERATE THE SECOND
WAVE OF PRECIP IN E CNTRL ND...WHICH CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER
BASICALLY THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BENSON
COUNTY ND TO WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY MN WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AROUND WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ELEVATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFT 03Z IN
EASTERN ND AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z...THUS EXPECT
PRECIP TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WINDS/MIXING SHOULD BE LIGHT...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
RATHER COOL...IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CNTRL
DAKOTAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS LIGHT MIXING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER WILL SPREAD PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INDICATING DRIZZLE
AS H700 LEVEL IS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER BY 15Z PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MODEST
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER AN EARLY HIGH AROUND 50. COOLER AIR
PULLED DOWN FROM CANADA MAY HELP TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...WINDS/MIXING DECREASE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...BRING DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA ARE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST
THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR SAGS AND HOW FAST. FOR SATURDAY THE INITIAL
BLAST WILL ONLY GRAZE OUR AREA...WITH 140KT TO 15KT 250MB JET OVER
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
FOR SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH...AS WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT. MODELS BREAK
OUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NORTH OF THIS ZONE. BASED ON 925MB
- 850 THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS LIGHT RAIN IS BEST BET.
FOR MONDAY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
LOWERING THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ON TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE...SIMILARLY PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF /
GFS/DGEX/GEM-NH...DROPS ACROSS THE CWFA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROP
TO 510DAM OR LOWER. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...925 TEMPS AROUND -10C
AND ARCTIC SCUD SUSPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR 0F QUITE POSSIBLE.
CALMER...DRIER AND UNSEASONALLY COLD WEATHER ENDS THIS PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
ONCE THE SNOW BAND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...EXPECT A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT TOTALLY SURE IF CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT...SO MOISTURE COULD GET TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
553 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE...AS WINDS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALSO...FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE 20-22 UTC
RAP AND SATELLITE...HELD STRATUS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...ALSO
BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNATINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL MOSTLY WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...MVFR-IFR
CLOUDS REMAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM SHERWOOD AND
BOTTINEAU SOUTHEAST THROUGH RUGBY AND HARVEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID DEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
03 UTC. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID
GET A REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM ROLLA THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN STRONG
SUBSIDENT FLOW. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. DID SEE A GUST TO 53 MPH AT GLEN ULLIN THIS
PAST HOUR. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM CST BUT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CENTRAL/5 MOUNTAIN. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER
WISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO A COLDER REGIME SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING LAKE WINNIPEG BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...AND ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY NOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS
AT 45 KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH 35 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 45 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON
BAY LOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE...WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY FROM THE 30S AND 40S...TO HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS DRY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MVFR STRATUS...AT TIMES LOWERING TO IFR...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KMOT AND KBIS...POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING AT KJMS. SNOW WILL END AT KJMS BY
01-02 UTC...WITH FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE SKY FOR TODAY. USED THE HRRR
CIGS AND RAP 925MB-850MB RH FIELDS FOR TIMING OF CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL LOOK INTO HOW THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE CLIPPER EVENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE UPPER CIRCULATION...SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA (MOST LIKELY RAIN...BUT
SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES). ALSO...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS AGREE THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. UPPER WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE INDUCING FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM/SREF BRING THE SFC
LOW THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GEM IN
BETWEEN. OF NOTE...THE REGIONAL GEM (HIGHER RESOLUTION VERSION) IS
NORTH OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION GEM. MESOSCALE BANDING INDICATORS
STILL SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED BANDING IS POSSIBLE. MOST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF QPF...WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGESTING 0.50 INCHES OR GREATER. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
PLACE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF QPF FROM NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE...INTO
THE GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI AREA. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS BRING THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF QPF FROM NORTHCENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
CONSIDERING THAT MESO-SCALE FORCING IS LIKELY...BEGINNING TO FAVOR
THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...USED MORE OF A BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY...AND ONLY HAVE POPS GREATER THAN 60% WHERE ALL MODELS
INDICATE QPF. OTHER THAN QPF AMOUNTS...P-TYPE AND POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE OTHER CHALLENGES FOR THIS EVENT. DUE TO THE
LOW PREDICTIVE NATURE OF THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...DETAILS LIKELY
CANNOT BE OBTAINED UNTIL WITHIN 6-12 HOURS OF THE EVENT...AND STUCK
WITH MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE EVENT. EACH SOLUTION DOES
SHOW 925MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES APPEAR LIKELY
SOMEWHERE. THE TRICKY PART IS HOW MUCH...AND WHERE TO PUT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST. TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY...WENT
WITH A GENERAL 1-2 INCH AREA FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEY AND BEMIDJI/PARK RAPIDS AREA...WHICH APPEARS
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE SNOWFALL (ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IN THE FORECAST). ALTHOUGH MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL (2-5 INCHES) IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD BE JUST A SMALL AREA
WITH LOCATIONS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE REGION
BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE A BIT BY DAY
7. OVERALL...TIMING LOOKS GOOD AND DECIDED ON A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR
THIS FORECAST.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...BUT PCPN TYPE DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK ATTM. WILL SEE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS
ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. SNOW
CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH MORE ABUNDANT COOLER AIR...BUT EXACT
PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
WILL LOOK AT LATER RUNS AND REFINE ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...MAY SEE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE MVFR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY...AND
VFR WITHIN THE VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR BY MID-
MORNING...WITH THE 3500-4500 FT CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION (MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
933 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT PULLING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED COLUMBUS SO BUMPED UP POPS A TAD ACROSS
SERN FORECAST AREA. DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS NW OH A FEW DEGREES AS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR NOW AND DEW POINTS ALREADY IN MID 30S.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE SE HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL BE IMPROVING MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LIFT AND PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. WILL
PULL THE THREAT FOR SHRA A LITTLE FURTHER NW BASED ON 12Z MODEL
RUNS. THE NW AND AROUND ERI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY
TONIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE NW...THE INCREASING COMBINATION OF FACTORS
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK. GFS/MAV LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST RUC RUN SO WILL UNDERCUT MAV POPS SOME.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SEE NO
REASON WHY WIDESPREAD RAIN WON`T OCCUR THRUT THE CWA THU INTO THU
NIGHT. INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL BY THU SO COULD BE SOME THUNDER
FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH THU NIGHT FOR ENOUGH WET
SNOW TO OCCUR TO LEAD TO A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
AREAS. LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING
UNLESS THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRI SO WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN
THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT WELL INTO FRI NIGHT SO SOME LIGHT SHSN
MAY LINGER BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP THREAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER ON
SAT. THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER FRI NIGHT SO SOME
CONCERN THAT FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR.
BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT LATER
ON SAT SO THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF AT LEAST SCT SHRA WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT SEEING
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGEOVER TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAT
NIGHT. MAYBE SOME ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE WORST THAT
COULD HAPPEN.
EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...TEMPS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY CAN
REBOUND ENOUGH TO EVEN GET BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES EAST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY MORE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OTHER AREAS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE EAST FROM THE SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. FOR THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INVOF
LAKE MI OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INTO/ACROSS NRN OHIO THURSDAY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THERE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND IFR MOVING IN FROM
THE WEWT DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROF NOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD WITH
UNSETTLED WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOT GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THEN YET
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
632 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT PULLING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD OVER THE SE HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
IMPROVING MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND PRECIP.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. WILL PULL THE THREAT FOR
SHRA A LITTLE FURTHER NW BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE NW AND AROUND
ERI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY TONIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE
NW...THE INCREASING COMBINATION OF FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP MAY
STILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK. GFS/MAV
LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RUC RUN SO WILL
UNDERCUT MAV POPS SOME.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SEE NO
REASON WHY WIDESPREAD RAIN WON`T OCCUR THRUT THE CWA THU INTO THU
NIGHT. INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL BY THU SO COULD BE SOME THUNDER
FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH THU NIGHT FOR ENOUGH WET
SNOW TO OCCUR TO LEAD TO A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
AREAS. LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING
UNLESS THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRI SO WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN
THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT WELL INTO FRI NIGHT SO SOME LIGHT SHSN
MAY LINGER BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP THREAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER ON
SAT. THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER FRI NIGHT SO SOME
CONCERN THAT FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR.
BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT LATER
ON SAT SO THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF AT LEAST SCT SHRA WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT SEEING
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGEOVER TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAT
NIGHT. MAYBE SOME ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE WORST THAT
COULD HAPPEN.
EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...TEMPS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY CAN
REBOUND ENOUGH TO EVEN GET BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES EAST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY MORE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OTHER AREAS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE EAST FROM THE SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. FOR THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INVOF
LAKE MI OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INTO/ACROSS NRN OHIO THURSDAY. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THERE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND IFR MOVING IN FROM
THE WEWT DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROF NOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD WITH
UNSETTLED WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOT GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THEN YET
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1123 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING AT OR JUST AFTER ISSUE TIME. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA FROM
06-09Z...AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST 09-14Z. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN OK DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TO VFR OVER NE OK TUE AFTERNOON AND
FINALLY ACROSS W AR AFTER 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP BAND EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TX INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE MOISTURE FEED FUELING THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY ATYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED BY A SUBTLE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TX
AND FURTHER LOW LEVEL LIFT SUPPLIED BY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
HAS ALREADY SLIPPED THROUGH NORTHWEST OK. LATEST DATA REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN NW OF A KMLC-KFYV LINE TONIGHT AND
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES LIKELY. LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS HRRR LIGHTNING FORECASTS OF ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT COVERAGE.
UPDATED FORECAST WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT WITH COOLER POST
FRONTAL TEMPS SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW PER LATEST RAP
DATA.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
816 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A
COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD EDGE IS VISIBLE LOW ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON OUT THE
WINDOW...DESPITE BEING ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY LOOKING FROM ABOVE.
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE EC COS AND MAY DISSOLVE THERE WHILE
TOTAL CLEARING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE SC/SWRN COS. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW
OVER MN/WI/LWR MI. MOISTURE CONTINUES RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE
OLD COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO
THE LWR MS VALLEY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER LATER TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW GOES OVER THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH A BIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN
TIER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO MEASURABLE
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AROUND 04Z. NAM IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
BUT SREF MEAN TIMING IS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FCST. THE RAIN MAY NOT
REACH THE FAR NRN STRIPE OF COS BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL GET REALLY
CLOSE. TEMPS MAY AGAIN HOLD VERY STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVE IN/THROUGH. AN INITIAL FALL TO
NEAR 40F IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO THE NORTH AND BROADEN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER
SC PA DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ENOUGH SUN MAKE POKE THROUGH
TO MAKE SCT SHOWERS FILL THE HOLE BACK IN. THE STABILITY LOOKS
HIGH...BUT FOR THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS IN THE AFTN WHERE NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERATE THE MEAGER-EST OF CAPES AND SOME MID- LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THE ONLY WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY IS ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THEREFORE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE
IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. QPF NOT WIDELY DISPARATE AND A
GENERAL 0.3 TO 0.8 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE. EVEN AN INCH WILL PRODUCE ALMOST NO
RIVER RESPONSE. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
RISE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING
THE STATE FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL
LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT
REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE
SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
DEGRADING CONDITIONS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT...AS WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM WEST
AROUND TO SOUTHEAST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD A
SHIELD OF RAIN AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING
BETWEEN 05Z-07Z AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND BY 09-11Z AT UNV AND
IPT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ROLL IN FIRST WITH A DROP TO IFR IN
BOTH CIGS AND VISBY A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE RAIN STARTS. BY
12Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IFR AND A FEW COULD BE LIFR. BFD SHOULD
BE THE LAST TO DROP TO/BELOW MVFR...WHICH SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR SO
BEFORE SUNRISE.
WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND SCATTER THE RAIN INTO
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE DAY...COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW AND OVER TIME THE COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO UPSLOPE
AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH/TURN OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY IN THE LAURELS AND NC MTS /JST AND
BFD/. OTHER TERMINALS MAY HAVE ISOLD SHRA IN THE POST-STORM
FLOW...BUT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THERE WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CIG
HEIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THU INTO FRI...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IFR IN NUMEROUS SHRA/SHSN WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MVFR
CIGS IN SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW WIND.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. PM SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WRN 1/3 INTO SAT NGT. GUSTY CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW
A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWRN
CANADA...WHICH WAS SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TNGT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT TNGT THERE WILL ONLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NWRN SD INTO THE BLKHLS AND EXTREME NERN WY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WINDS OF 35-45 KT...RESULTING IN WIND ADVY CRITERIA
ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN SD PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECENT LACK OF
PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DUST
POLLUTION ALERT FOR WEST RAPID CITY. THE MAIN SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES WILL BE ACROSS ND...AND THE TIMING OF THE MAXIMUM BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND
WRNG CRITERIA WINDS TO BE ACHIEVED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SUNDAY
LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE NICE WITH
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA WITH SUBSEQUENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN...BUT
THEN WARMUP APPEARS AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF
RUNS INSIST ON MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK AND SOME GROUND-WHITENING SNOW
FOR MONDAY. 12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR OR
SNOW...SHUNTING CORE OF COLD AIR EAST OF CWA WITH UPPER TROUGH MUCH
FURTHER EAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COLDER THAN OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT
WARMER THAN ECMWF. THICKNESS DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY FOR CONTRASTING
RUNS ABOUT 250M. HAVE FOLLOWED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW UP IN LATER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST SD BETWEEN 06Z-15Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ TO 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ043-046-047-049.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ013-014-025-
026-031-032-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
958 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
PCPN/CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF SCNTRL SD SO HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF POPS IN THE FCST. WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED
ACRS WRN SD. NO OTHER CHANGED NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN
UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS
WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND.
PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND
WEBCAMS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST
AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN
CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA.
ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET
COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED
MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND
BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
940 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN
ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND THE PLATEAU IS MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA. FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWN
BY THE NAM TO MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS BY 09Z...AND EXIT TO
THE EAST BY 12Z. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE IN AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT
POP/WX GRIDS REFLECT THIS TREND...SO NO BIG CHANGES ARE
NEEDED...JUST SOME SLIGHT TEMPERATURE TWEAKS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PULL QUITE A BIT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE OVER THE REGION WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE VERY
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. HARDEST PART WAS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WERE
CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER OUT WAY TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF
BOTH KEEP A THICK LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING/EVOLVING...OPTED TO GO WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE HAD A FREEZE WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME READINGS AT
33 DEGREES AROUND FRIONA AND MULESHOE SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT
FEEL THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED FOR NOW.
WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT BACKWARDS
FROM OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH AS INSOLATION IS USED TO EVAPORATE
ANY SURFACE MOISTURE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SO NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A LIGHT WIND ALL DAY AND
LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM MORE
THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS PROVIDING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WILL SHEAR OUT
WHILST SKIRTING SSE TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEREFORE START OFF DRY AS AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PROMOTES DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE DRY
COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW
NIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR/AT THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SFC RIDGE WITH HINTS OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LEADING TO A PROJECTED STRONGER
AND BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/...IN COMPARISON TO TOMORROW
NIGHT/S FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL BRING ABOUT
THE RETURN OF BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...HENCE REBOUNDING
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS COLD FRONT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...WITH CURRENT
ITERATIONS SHOWING EITHER A STOUT SFC RIDGE DRIVING IN A BREEZY
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE ECMWF/ OR A WEAKER
FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE GFS/. A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS APPEARS APPROPRIATE ATTM...THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND BELOW NORM TEMPS ARE VALID.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 36 63 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 61 37 64 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 38 59 36 64 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 39 60 38 65 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 40 59 36 64 40 / 30 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 59 37 64 40 / 20 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 42 65 43 68 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 62 41 67 42 / 20 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 61 40 68 43 / 50 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
309 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WITH
DECREASING RAIN AND DECREASING COASTAL WIND. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT OF A DRY PERIOD CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING COMPACT AND RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND QUITE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER... THOUGH
A WEAK SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A
CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FAIRLY
HEAVY RAIN AND QUITE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. WINDS HAVE GUSTED WELL UP
INTO THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
RAINS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT BUT NO FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE FRONT HAVING JUST MOVED THROUGH BUOY 89...SUPPORTING THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF RAINFALL DECREASING MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AND THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WELL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE OREGON
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND. WITH A MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS
REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MILD AIR MASS AND SPARSE PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT RATHER STRONG COMPACT LOW EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON THURSDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL WINDS. THE MODELS
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS HOW STRONG OR DEEP
THE LOW WILL BE...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKER MODEL. IF THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS ARE MORE CORRECT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY. WITH A TRACK UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND...SOME RATHER
STRONG WIND COULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTERIOR AND
POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS WE
GET CLOSER. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...THE STRONG LOW FROM THURSDAY WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING
ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DRYING BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOR SOME MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM RIDING OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND GIVING US A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO TREND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR NOW.
TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN
INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE COAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE MVFR CIGS ARE NOW SPREADING INLAND FROM NW TO SE.
EXPECT ALL OF THE INTERIOR TAF SITES TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z TO
14Z. GUSTY S WINDS ARE PICKING UP ALONG THE COAST...AND EXPECT GUSTS
TO 30 TO 40 KT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM ABOUT 13Z FURTHER NORTH TO AROUND 16Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
BY 18Z TO 20Z. THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LOWERING THIS MORNING AS RAIN INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MVFR BY 11Z OR 12Z IN
STEADY RAIN...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY AROUND 18Z TUE. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE FRONT WENT THROUGH BUOY 89 OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH
A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE W AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS
OBSERVED. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PROGRESS INLAND ALONG THE S WA COAST
AFTER 12Z...EVENTUALLY PUSHING ONTO THE CENTRAL OR COAST BY AROUND
15Z. BASED ON THE OBSERVED TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE LATEST FCST
MODELS...EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING THROUGH MID MORNING. IN GENERAL
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LATE
MORNING...WITH NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS HAVE BUILT INTO THE MID TEENS THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASED
WIND WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL OFF LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10
FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY...
BRINGING FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
THU. A SURFACE LOW PRES IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FROM SW
TO NE...MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE N WA COAST OR VANCOUVER ISLAND.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID GALES AND WINDS INTO THE MID TEENS APPEAR TO
BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 PM
PST THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will into today with breezy winds developing
by this afternoon. The remainder of the work week will feature
mild temperatures with occasional periods of light rain with a
potential for windy conditions again on Thursday. A drying trend
is on tap for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A subtropical atmospheric river is hosing the
region this morning and efficiently enhancing along a strong
isentropic surface augmented by orographic lift in a southwest
flow regime. This pattern will characterize the first 6 to 8 hours
of the forecast featuring widespread...actually almost
universal...light to moderate rain with snow levels way up near
the top of the highest peaks. A further quarter to half inch of
rainfall is expected over far eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle today...while a few hundredths is likely in the normally
drier deep basin zones before an occluded front sweeps through and
transitions the precipitation pattern to a moist zonal regime. The
occlusion will move through the Cascades late this morning and
then sweep across the eastern basin and Idaho Panhandle this
afternoon. Precipitation will taper off to scattered showers in
the wake of the front...but winds will increase to solidly breezy
with gust potential of up to 30 to 35 mph on exposed terrain this
afternoon as mixing draws fast flow aloft down to the surface in a
random fashion. This well mixed air mass will also promote high
temperatures above average in the mid 50s over most valley
locations and even into the low 60s over the deep basin.
Tonight lingering showers over the mountains will gradually taper
off and winds will decrease as a broad ridge aloft begins to
build. The issue by Wednesday morning is likely to be extensive
fog and low clouds as the saturated low level air mass decouples
overnight.
In summary...a wet morning will give way to a blustery...unsettled and
raw afternoon followed by a quiet but very moist overnight period.
/Fugazzi
Wednesday through Thursday night:
* Overview: A ridge of high pressure will build over the region
Wednesday then migrate east Thursday. Wednesday will generally
feature dry conditions but not necessarily sunny skies as
morning low clouds and fog give way to increasing clouds along
a midlevel warm front. The warm front will be tied to a deep low
pressure system in the offshore waters tracking north between
140-150W longitude. One noticeable difference will be with winds
as they switch around from the west to the south. This will
increase lift into the northern mountains with periods of light
rain developing by early Wednesday evening and continue into the
night. Model consensus places the highest rain probabilities
north of a line from Sandpoint to Wenatchee with lower chances
as far south as the I-90 corridor during the Wednesday night
time-frame. The Camas Prairie, Blue Mtns, and L-C Valley will
carry the least threat for precipitation through Wednesday
night.
An area of low pressure will track through the region
Thursday. Look for morning rain across the north to intensify as
southerly winds ramp up and transport deep subtropical moisture
inland. Model pwats surge well over an inch indicative of the
atmospheric river returning to region. Rain will expand south
and east as the low crosses through northwestern WA ushering a
cold front across the Cascades then into Ern WA and Nrn ID late
Thursday aftn/evening. Models are still showing moderate
differences with the strength of this low but overall trends
over the last 2-3 runs with each model suite is
wetter...slower...and further south. This looks to be quick
moving storm system which will limit the potential for heavy
rains despite the very juicy air mass accompanying the system.
Once the cold front passes through, look for clearing in the
lee of the Cascades while showers begin to concentrate along
the Cascade Crest and eastern mountains.
* QPF: Wednesday/Wednesday night: QPF amounts will largely be
under 0.20" of an inch except along the Cascade Crest which
will have the potential for 0.25-0.50". Thursday/Thursday night:
Rainfall amounts for Thursday and Thursday night will range from
0.40 - 0.80" in the mountains of NE WA and Nrn ID, 0.70 - 1.30"
along the Cascade Crest and between 0.10 - 0.30" in the Basin.
With the exception of the southeastern corner of the forecast
area (L-C Valley, Camas Prairie, and Blue Mtns) these amounts
may be on the conservative side with newer 00z guidance
producing swaths closer to an inch into the lowlands of the
Upper Columbia Basin.
* Winds: Winds Thursday morning/early afternoon will be from
south/southeast 6-12 mph. These winds will switch to the
west/southwest behind the cold front passage Thursday
afternoon/evening (timing still carries uncertainty) and
increase 10 to 20 mph with the potential for gusts 35-45 mph.
* Snow levels: The northern mountains will start off between
4500-5000 feet Wed morning but climb 6000-7000 feet by early
evening and will continue to surge toward 10,000 feet overnight
(another tell tale sign of the atmospheric river). Snow levels
will fall after the cold front passage Thursday night with
moderate uncertainty how quick and how low. Needless to say,
there is a potential that snow levels to fall 4500-5000 feet in
the Cascades Thursday night which could deliver snow showers to
Stevens Pass. Most precipitation will be ending at Sherman Pass
and the cooler air will not arrive at Lookout Pass until Friday
morning...after sunrise. So in summary, the mountain pass which
could see some snow would be Stevens and not until late Thursday
night with low confidence in regards to amounts and travel
impacts.
Friday: A ridge of high pressure will amplify off the coast and
begin to expand inland. The Inland NW will be on the eastern
periphery of the ridge through much of the day placing a
northwesterly jet overhead. Mountain showers will be in place to
start the day. The air mass will stabilize from west to east
through the day as the ridge axis starts to come onshore. This
will shut off orographic showers in the Cascades around midday Fri
then by late afternoon/early evening in the Idaho Panhandle. There
will be a good chance for fog and low clouds to redevelop Friday
night into Saturday morning.
Temperatures from Wednesday through Friday night will be quite
mild for November`s standards with overnight lows near
climatological highs. /sb
Saturday through Monday Night: Models continue to indicate a high
amplitude ridge building into the region late in the week leading
to a general drying trend into the weekend. This would also bring
a lesser amount of cloud cover for the end of the week. Where we
start to lose consistency in the models is late Sunday with the
approach of a significant shortwave. The GFS continues to show the
majority of the energy sliding to the north and east of the region
leading to mainly dry forecast. The euro on the other hand brings
the wave much further west directly over eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle. This would lead to a wetter and windier pattern for the
forecast area. While the euro solution has been inconsistent with
its timing, the pattern has been rather similar from run to run.
Based on the inconsistencies, I am reluctant to completely buy
into one or the other at this point. Exact details will have to
wait with the extended as models paint two different pictures.
The good news is we still have plenty of time to iron out the
uncertainties. Concerning temperatures we look to stay on the warm
side of normal as mild Pacific air continues to stream into the
Inland NW. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Steady rain should reappear for most lowland locations
near 10Z and linger for much of the day. Wind is expected to
increase and become gusty as this wet frontal zone passes through,
with potential for low level wind shear if these robust upper
level winds do not mix down to the surface tonight. The back edge
of the wet frontal zone passes through same locations near 21Z
and allow for decreased precipitation activity. Between 0-6Z
Wednesday the front is making progress out of North Idaho so
precipitation should be over for aviation sites along with a
decrease in wind. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 41 52 46 57 42 / 100 10 20 30 60 30
Coeur d`Alene 52 40 51 44 56 41 / 100 20 20 20 60 40
Pullman 52 44 57 48 61 43 / 100 20 10 10 30 40
Lewiston 58 47 62 47 66 46 / 100 10 10 10 20 50
Colville 54 38 49 43 54 41 / 100 10 30 60 80 30
Sandpoint 50 40 49 42 53 40 / 100 30 20 20 80 60
Kellogg 46 41 50 43 53 41 / 100 60 20 10 60 60
Moses Lake 63 44 57 46 61 43 / 90 10 10 20 60 10
Wenatchee 63 44 54 45 52 42 / 90 10 10 50 70 10
Omak 59 39 50 42 50 39 / 90 10 30 70 90 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will spread across the region tonight into
Tuesday with breezy winds developing Tuesday afternoon. This will
be the wettest storm system of the week. The remainder of the week
will feature mild temperatures with occasional periods of light
precipitation. A stronger storm system will bring the potential
for windy conditions late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Grids were updated some in an attempt to time the brief break in
the steady rain tonight occurring over much of the lowland
locations right now. Opted to keep the text based zones as is
with the high pop mention of steady rain based on this expectation
that rain will again appear for most lowland locations by 2AM PST
based on recent HRRR model runs. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Steady rain should reappear for most lowland locations
near 10Z and linger for much of the day. Wind is expected to
increase and become gusty as this wet frontal zone passes through,
with potential for low level wind shear if these robust upper
level winds do not mix down to the surface tonight. The back edge
of the wet frontal zone passes through same locations near 21Z
and allow for decreased precipitation activity. Between 0-6Z
Wednesday the front is making progress out of North Idaho so
precipitation should be over for aviation sites along with a
decrease in wind. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 45 54 43 53 46 57 / 100 100 10 20 30 50
Coeur d`Alene 43 51 41 53 44 56 / 100 100 20 20 30 60
Pullman 44 54 45 57 48 61 / 100 100 30 10 20 30
Lewiston 47 59 48 62 47 66 / 60 100 20 20 20 20
Colville 44 54 39 50 43 54 / 100 100 10 30 50 60
Sandpoint 43 49 41 50 42 53 / 100 100 30 20 40 70
Kellogg 41 45 42 50 43 53 / 100 100 60 20 20 70
Moses Lake 48 63 45 57 45 61 / 80 30 10 20 30 30
Wenatchee 46 61 43 56 46 59 / 90 30 10 20 40 40
Omak 43 58 39 52 42 56 / 100 30 10 30 50 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
A STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...HEADING GENERALLY TO THE EAST AND WILL MOVE OUT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT. A NICE AREA OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITHIN A FOCUSED REGION OF AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
JET. VAD WINDS OFF THE 88D HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALL EVENING. THIS
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST AND WILL MOVE EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. LOTS OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED IN BEHIND THE LOW AND WE MAY
ACTUALLY BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA
FOR A TIME BEFORE A BAND OF MORE LIGHT RAIN/POTENTIALLY MIXED
PCPN WRAPS SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. HAVE MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.
THE HRRR IS DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE DEPICTION SO FAR. ANY
THREAT OF SNOW IS LOOKING VERY MINOR AT THIS TIME AND KEPT THE
POTENTIAL MIX NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON BEFORE IT ENDS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL
GENERALLY ARRIVE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT...EXITING EAST OF PORT WASHINGTON BY ABOUT 08-09Z THU.
CIGS WILL LOWER RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR THEN IFR
FOR A TIME. THE PEAK TIME FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE BETWEEN 09-14Z THU
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE THREAT FOR ANY SNOW
MIXING IN LOOKS VERY MINIMAL AND IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD BE
AFTER SUNRISE ON THU. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO THERE IS
ZERO THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION ON HARD SURFACES. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 25 TO 35KTS AT TIMES LATER THU
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY 12Z
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AND I ADJUSTED THE START
TIME TO BEGIN AT 12Z /6 AM/ THURSDAY. IT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014/
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENT AND FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EAST FROM SRN MN/NRN IA.
MODELS ALL SHOW TO VARYING DEGREES SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING ACROSS SRN WI IN DCVA REGION OF THIS UPPER FEATURE. DEF ZONE
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS WAVE IS LARGELY ACROSS
NRN WI WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE LONGEST AND THIS IS WHERE THE
DECENT SNOW ACCUMS WILL TAKE PLACE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO MAINTAIN
SOME CONCERN FOR A MIX ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MKE.
HOWEVER THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL OF THIS
WITH LOW LEVELS STAYING WARM ENOUGH INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WARRANT CONCERN. MAIN CONCERN
WILL END UP BEING THE GUSTY NNW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40
MPH...HIGHEST IN ERN CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN QUICKLY
DEPART FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. DRY WEATHER IS
THUS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AT
TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. CONFINED THE POPS
MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN...BUT THE FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF IS COLDER AND WOULD
BRING AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW...SO WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
FORECAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH THE VARIOUS LOW TRACKS SUGGESTING SOLUTIONS RANGING
FROM ALL RAIN TO MOSTLY SNOW. WENT WITH A MIX MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH...POSSIBLY BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR.
AVIATION...STRONG UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACH AND
PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASE WITH TIME
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AS THE DCVA REGION COMES INTO PLAY. DEF ZONE PRECIP INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER QPF NUMBERS IN NE CWA. MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR A MIX STILL N AND NW OF KMKE AND KUES. MAIN STORY
WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. THESE WILL KICK IN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND LAST FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS FOR
A TIME...ESP IN ERN CWA.
MARINE...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF WI EARLY THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...THUS HOISTED A
WARNING FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
546 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE RAP HAS
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS
EVENING AND THEN THIS RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PAINTING A BROAD AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE ARW AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THAT
THE SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. FOR COLLABORATION REASONS...STAYED WITH THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT A BIT CONCERNED THAT THEY MAY BE TOO
HIGH FOR THESE TWO AREAS. MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE
THERE IS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...850 MB QG CONVERGENCE...WEAK
850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED. WET BULB ZEROS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUNDINGS WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR
THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29 MAY BE UP TO AN
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DPROG/DT SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHIFTED THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE COBB DATA FOR KAUW SUGGESTS BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH IN THE NAM AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GFS. MEANWHILE
IN KEAU...THERE IS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EITHER MODEL.
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 05.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A VERY
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE 05.12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GEM HAS NEARLY 0.75 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB AIR
SPILLS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
NAEFS STANDARDIZED 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF ARE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN -12 AND -16C. MEANWHILE THE GFS
HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED
SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND IT
STILL BEING ON DAY 6 AND 7...JUST STAYED WITH THE SUPER BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST IA WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN ITS WAKE AS STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF
KLSE/KRST. WILL REMOVE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM 05.00Z TAFS...
FOCUSING INSTEAD ON THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWER MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY 06.06Z. WITH THESE LOWER CEILINGS...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KTS. MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 06.18Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE MOSTLY LEVELED
OFF FURTHER WEST. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO THE WAUSAU TO
GREEN BAY AREAS BUT CLOUDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE 29 ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO ENTER NW
WISCONSIN. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AT DULUTH
WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE VILAS COUNTY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. CLOUD
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP TRENDS
ON WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
SPOTTY RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARGUE FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE FURTHER NORTH DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE LOW
OVERCAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TRYING TO TIME THE CLEARING
IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATE...SO THINK
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
LATE AND A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH
AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S
SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
QUICKLY AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
DAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN ZONE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SINCE EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLAKES RIGHT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER
SO LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE TWO TO SEVEN DAY PERIOD OCCURS
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES
IN...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WI. GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS
WHIP THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI IN ABOUT
6-8 HOURS WHILE THE NAM DAWDLES 2-4 HOURS LONGER. OTHER THAN
TIMING...THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...SREF PLUMES
INDICATE ABOUT 0.2" LIQUID ACCUMULATION AT GRB WITH ABOUT 1/2"
SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD ON THURS. WPC 1640Z 2-DAY
WINTER PRECIP HIGHLIGHTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL WI.
ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER LIGHT SHOT OF MIXED PRECIP. FINALLY...A THIRD CLIPPER
APPROACHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
ON ANY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF GENERATES AN IMPRESSIVE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY LATE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IMPROVE CIGS TO LOW VFR. THIS
CLEARING WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MVL
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION...TIMING
OF PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. THOUGH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM THIS EVENING OVER IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN EXIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT
LINGERS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A POTENT BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TO THAT PART
OF THE STATE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. BUT CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHERE DEEPER DRYING HOLDS FIRM. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAYS
READINGS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
PCPN CHANCES AND TYPE WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.
AT LEAST TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...
ONE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A COUPLE SURGES
OF ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE WED-THU CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AS THEY HAVE A SIMILAR SFC LOW TRACK (THRU SOUTHERN WI)
AND TIMING. PCPN WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDDAY...THEN
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NC/FAR NE/C WI ON WEDS
NGT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS. MIXED RAIN/SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMS. THE GFS IS INITIALLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LESS SNOW ACCUMS THAN THE ECMWF.
THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVG THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDL SNOW ACCUMS AND
A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SUPPORT A COUPLE
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ATTM. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT THIS
OUT...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESSS...
IT LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FOX VALLEY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z TUESDAY. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND SHOWERS END
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
219 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...829 PM CST
LOTS OF WX CONCERNS AS VIGOROUS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RACES ESE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT 01Z SURFACE LOW WAS JUST SOUTH
OF KLSE WITH AND MOVING EASTWARD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY
KILX/KDVN SOUNDINGS HAVE RESULTED IN A GOOD DEAL OF THIS PRECIP
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP DOWN SATURATION SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASING OF SCTD SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD FOR TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SCTD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PERSISTED AS ITS MOVED ACROSS IOWA AND SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 130KT+ 250MB JET THAT IS DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND HELPING CARVE OUT AND SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG ASCENT IN THAT LEFT EXIT REGION HAS COINCIDED NICELY WITH A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING ADVECTED
EASTWARD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING THE
ISOLD THUNDER. RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT MOVING IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SO WE HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT SOUTHERN CWA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN...THOUGH SOME SCTD MORE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE NIPPED AWAY AT POPS A BIT TOMORROW.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
ABOUT 5MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS
WITH LOCAL WRF ARW AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING A BULLSEYE OF 4-5MB/3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MIDDAY. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW TO NNW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE SO HELD OFF ON AN ADV MOST
AREAS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE THE ADDED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS
AND LESS FRICTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. THE HIGH
END GALE TO BRIEFLY NEAR STORM FORCE NW-NNW WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WAVES
ALONG EASTERN LAKE CO IN AND PORTER COUNTY INTO THE 14-18FT RANGE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY. THE
DUNES NOTED THAT THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE FROM THE HALLOWEEN
STORM AND THAT STORM ALSO WASHED AWAY A LOT OF THE SAND BARS THAT
TYPICALLY OFFER UP PROTECTION IN THESE EVENTS...WHICH MEANS AREAS
COULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PROBLEMS WITH TOMORROW`S HIGH WIND/WAVE
EVENT.
FINALLY...LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MOST
AREAS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND SHOULD RESULT IN
GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
IZZI/KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
245 PM...TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IL SHORE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF IOWA WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TOWARD MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BUT AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
EVENING...SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA IS FAIRLY LOW BUT IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE MINOR.
THE STRONGER GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR QUITE A WINDY DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 35 MPH RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
245 PM...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT AFTER STARTING WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE FRIDAY. GENERALLY HAVE MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET WARMER THAN THAT.
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK SOUTHERLY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY WITH
TIMING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT TIMING
WILL DEPEND ON ANY POTENTIAL NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS. INITIALLY...THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS PRECIP IS
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT AT THE MOMENT...QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO...OR POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 35
KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET FROM WHAT IS TO COME OVER THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THERE
ARE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ILLNOIS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS PASSING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
STARTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW CENTER NOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE COMING HOURS...THEN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ONSETTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ABATING LATE.
IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KMD/KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH WITH CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLT CHANCE OF SHRA FRI NGT. LIGHT WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. CHANCE OF A RA/SN
SHOWER MIX MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ONTO LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR MILWAUKEE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER MICHIGAN
STATE BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS...HIGH END GALE FORCE
TO NEAR STORM FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WIND EVENT WILL THEN UNFOLD DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AREA THAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY PRONE
TO A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE...MAINLY MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH GALES
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED THE IDEA OF A STORM
FORCE WINDS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE WE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 50 KT GUSTS...THE WINDOW OF TIME AS
MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO A 3-4 HR TIME WINDOW
EMBEDDED IN WHAT IS LARGELY A HIGH END GALE EVENT. EITHER
WAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY CREATING
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.
THIS LOW WILL BE CRUISING EASTWARD SUCH THAT GALES WILL SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
SLIDES OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT WITH THE
NORTH FETCH THAT ELEVATED WAVES WILL LINGER ALONG THE INDIANA AND
PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WELL INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH
WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS FOR NEXT WEEK.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...NOON THURSDAY TO 10
PM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...8 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 9
PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...8 AM THURSDAY TO 9
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1158 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...829 PM CST
LOTS OF WX CONCERNS AS VIGOROUS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RACES ESE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT 01Z SURFACE LOW WAS JUST SOUTH
OF KLSE WITH AND MOVING EASTWARD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY
KILX/KDVN SOUNDINGS HAVE RESULTED IN A GOOD DEAL OF THIS PRECIP
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP DOWN SATURATION SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASING OF SCTD SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD FOR TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SCTD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PERSISTED AS ITS MOVED ACROSS IOWA AND SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 130KT+ 250MB JET THAT IS DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE MIDWEST AND HELPING CARVE OUT AND SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG ASCENT IN THAT LEFT EXIT REGION HAS COINCIDED NICELY WITH A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING ADVECTED
EASTWARD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING THE
ISOLD THUNDER. RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT MOVING IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SO WE HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT SOUTHERN CWA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN...THOUGH SOME SCTD MORE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE NIPPED AWAY AT POPS A BIT TOMORROW.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
ABOUT 5MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS
WITH LOCAL WRF ARW AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING A BULLSEYE OF 4-5MB/3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MIDDAY. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW TO NNW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE SO HELD OFF ON AN ADV MOST
AREAS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE THE ADDED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS
AND LESS FRICTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. THE HIGH
END GALE TO BRIEFLY NEAR STORM FORCE NW-NNW WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WAVES
ALONG EASTERN LAKE CO IN AND PORTER COUNTY INTO THE 14-18FT RANGE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH INDIANA DUNES STATE PARK HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY. THE
DUNES NOTED THAT THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE FROM THE HALLOWEEN
STORM AND THAT STORM ALSO WASHED AWAY A LOT OF THE SAND BARS THAT
TYPICALLY OFFER UP PROTECTION IN THESE EVENTS...WHICH MEANS AREAS
COULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PROBLEMS WITH TOMORROW`S HIGH WIND/WAVE
EVENT.
FINALLY...LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MOST
AREAS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND SHOULD RESULT IN
GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
IZZI/KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
245 PM...TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IL SHORE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF IOWA WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER WAVE TOWARD MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BUT AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
EVENING...SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA IS FAIRLY LOW BUT IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE MINOR.
THE STRONGER GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR QUITE A WINDY DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 35 MPH RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
245 PM...ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT AFTER STARTING WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 20S AND SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE FRIDAY. GENERALLY HAVE MID 40S FOR
HIGHS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET WARMER THAN THAT.
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK SOUTHERLY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY WITH
TIMING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT TIMING
WILL DEPEND ON ANY POTENTIAL NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS. INITIALLY...THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS PRECIP IS
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT AT THE MOMENT...QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO...OR POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 35
KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET FROM WHAT IS TO COME OVER THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THERE
ARE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ILLNOIS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS PASSING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
STARTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW CENTER NOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE COMING HOURS...THEN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ONSETTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ABATING LATE.
IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KMD/KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH WITH CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLT CHANCE OF SHRA FRI NGT. LIGHT WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. CHANCE OF A RA/SN
SHOWER MIX MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES MIDDAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50KT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH EAST THIS EVENING...APPROACHING CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 15-25KT
FROM THE SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST 15-20KT...AGAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW. THEN AS THE LOW
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT BRIEFLY
DIMINISHES WITH WINDS DECREASING TEMPORARILY. THEN AS THE LOW SLIDES
EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
QUICK ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE
THE GALES FIRST...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE. THE PRESSURE RISES ARE THE STRONGEST
MIDDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...WHERE GALES COULD
APPROACH 45 KT. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KT MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 11AM-4PM THUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDDAY FRI. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...BUT WITH THE NORTH FETCH EXPECT
ELEVATED WAVES ALONG THE INDIANA AND PERHAPS ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY FRIDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
ITS TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS RIGHT OVER THE
LAKE. SEVERAL MORE LOWS WILL IMPACT THE LAKE BEYOND THIS TIME...WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...NOON THURSDAY TO 10
PM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...8 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 AM
THURSDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...8 AM THURSDAY TO 9
PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CLEAR SKIES OF THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WAS GRADUALLY BEING MOISTENED BY VIRGA AND SOME SPRINKLES
WERE REPORTED AT THE OFFICE. A BAND OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WERE ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LOW TO MID 60S WERE REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WAS LOCATED THE LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME RASN IN
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SW MN...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE MSAS THE
PRESSURE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. ANALYZING THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGESTS THAT CONSALL AND BCCONSALL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CWA. AS
SUCH THE BEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THAT THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF BOTH SUGGEST PRECIP WITH
FROPA. A DECENT RADAR ECHO TO THE WEST MAKES ME THINK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY. WITH THE
SPRINKLES EARLIER AND THE HRRR RUNS...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
NEAR MORNING THE CAA PUMPS INTO THE AREA AND LEADS TO COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. IF PRECIP IS FALLING ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE...SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. DECIDED TO ADD SOME RASN IN THOSE COUNTIES AND
EVEN DUBUQUE COUNTY UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TO THE EAST THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND WILL LEAD
TO A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS WI AND IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TOMORROW. MOST
GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 35 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN LATER
IN THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE A MORE VOLATILE TURN DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AM EXPECTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI RIVER
VALLEY...YIELDING LOWS IN THE 22-28 DEGREE RANGE.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATES A WEAK FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ACROSS THE
NORTH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PHASING
ISSUES PERSIST AMONG THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SCENARIO IS LOW. TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF/GEM FAVOR A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MEANS WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND COLDER...WITH A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. PHASING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RESOLVE...AND WITH HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 5 DAYS OUT...WILL NOT
STRAY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY`S
HIGHS IS 45-55...WHICH LEAVES SOME WIGGLE ROOM EITHER WAY. POPS
RANGE FROM LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH...TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
VIGOROUS AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO SPILL INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS NEXT 10-18 HOURS
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AT DBQ/CID BY MORNING AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES TO BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AT ALL TERMINAL BETWEEN 06/19-06/23Z. NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
BELOW 10 MPH BY SUNSET.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL
TURN WINDY ON THE LAKESHORE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND TIMING TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AFTER 03Z THE GFS LOWERS THE FREEZING LEVEL
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY.
THUS AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS
LOW...AND IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY AT THAT TIME. I KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS FOR TODAY...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS
RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS STRATIFORM RAIN. RADAR SHOWS THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NEARLY ALL LOCATION SHOULD
MEASURE...BUT THE REASONING FOR THE HIGH POPS.
AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE MOST DEEP FROM
LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. THIS IS WHERE I WILL FEATURE GENERALLY
LIKELY POPS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN EVENT AS WELL AS THE
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST MELTING WILL OCCUR. INTERIOR NORTHER LOCATIONS
LIKE HARRISON COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN GIVEN THE COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT MIXED
PCPN WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WELL NORTH OF I-96 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AIDED BY
POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PORTIONS OF
OUR FCST AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS BY THEN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA.
NW TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12 C BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.
AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME FAVORS
NORTHERN LOWER MI AND UPPER MI FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMS TUE-WED DUE TO GREATER DELTA T/S... DEEPER MOISTURE AND
AIRMASS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN SO... SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR THEN IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AS LOWER CLOUDS
AND RAIN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
THEN VFR THURSDAY EVENING AS CIGS IMPROVE AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FSL RUC AND DEEPER
MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GALES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER AS WELL..THUS I WILL HAVE THE GALES STARTING AROUND
18Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER
RISES WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
NEAR TERM FCST PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA SWEEPING OUT OF CANADIAN AND INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. ALL THIS IN PART TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF SITUATED OVER THE ERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS REVEALING A SFC LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SWD THRUST OF CAA MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. RUC13 SHOWING SFC PRES GRAD REMAINING TIGHT
THE REST OF THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM W-E THIS
AFTN.
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS...GOING MAX/MIN TEMP FCST COMPARED MET/MAV
GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEM REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF CAA TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
U40S/L50S.
ON FRIDAY...WAA REGIME SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SERN STATES. MET HIGHS SEEM TO
COOL GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLY FLOW AND PREFER LEANING TOWARD WARMER
MAV/ECM SOLUTIONS.
FOR SAT...MET/MAV ARE IN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WHEN BULK OF CAA MOVES IN. NUMBERS SEEM REASONABLE THUS SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARE IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED PDS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE PCPN SUN NIGHT/MON WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH. IT SEEMS YESTERDAYS CMC RUN HAD THE RIGHT IDEA LAYING QPF
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AND NOW
WITH BOTH GFS/ECM ARE ADVERTISING THE SAME...HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS.
OTHERWISE....NOTICEABLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON ENVELOPES THE REGION AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHEAST SD IS STILL
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT MAY CLIP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KOMA IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY KOFK TO BRING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH MORNING...WITH A FEW VFR
CLOUDS APPROACHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SLACKENING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1119 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS HOW FAR SOUTH A CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IA CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA...THEN EASING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. LATEST
NAM/RAP WOULD SUGGEST CLOUDS MAKE IT EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH/WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST HRRR JUST GIVES US
A GLANCING BLOW. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS UP ABOUT A DEGREE ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD FROM OMAHA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG TO OUR EAST AIDED BY A 120+ KT 300MB JET.
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...AN AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES OUR REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
SUBZERO 850MB AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL DOWN WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS SHOULD
KEEP SFC WINDS UP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND IT BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND COULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PCPN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SUBZERO 850MB AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AREA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM THE POLAR REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. AS ALWAYS...TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING REGARDING PCPN
TYPES. THE 12Z GFS IS FAIRLY BULLISH WITH THE QPF WHEREAS THE 12
ECMWF REMAINS QUITE A BIT DRIER. WILL STILL INCLUDE SMALL POPS IN
OUR NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN TO BEGIN WITH..THEN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PCPN EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHEAST SD IS STILL
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT MAY CLIP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KOMA IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY KOFK TO BRING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH MORNING...WITH A FEW VFR
CLOUDS APPROACHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SLACKENING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1005 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS HOW FAR SOUTH A CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IA CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA...THEN EASING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. LATEST
NAM/RAP WOULD SUGGEST CLOUDS MAKE IT EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH/WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST HRRR JUST GIVES US
A GLANCING BLOW. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS UP ABOUT A DEGREE ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD FROM OMAHA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG TO OUR EAST AIDED BY A 120+ KT 300MB JET.
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...AN AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES OUR REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
SUBZERO 850MB AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL DOWN WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS SHOULD
KEEP SFC WINDS UP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND IT BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND COULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PCPN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SUBZERO 850MB AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AREA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM THE POLAR REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. AS ALWAYS...TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING REGARDING PCPN
TYPES. THE 12Z GFS IS FAIRLY BULLISH WITH THE QPF WHEREAS THE 12
ECMWF REMAINS QUITE A BIT DRIER. WILL STILL INCLUDE SMALL POPS IN
OUR NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN TO BEGIN WITH..THEN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PCPN EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SLACKENING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INTERMITTENT SCATTERED CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR EDITS WERE MADE WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
STRATUS CONTINUES TO TREND SCT-BKN ACROSS MY EASTERN COUNTIES.
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO MY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST TONIGHT...SO THIS AREA WILL NOT TREND MOSTLY
CLEAR UNTIL 15-18Z THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AS OF 0345 UTC...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS
JUST CLEARED HIGHWAY 83. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OF THE BACK EDGE AS ADDITIONAL STRATUS ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE...AS WINDS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALSO...FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE 20-22 UTC
RAP AND SATELLITE...HELD STRATUS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...ALSO
BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL MOSTLY WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...MVFR-IFR
CLOUDS REMAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM SHERWOOD AND
BOTTINEAU SOUTHEAST THROUGH RUGBY AND HARVEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID DEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
03 UTC. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID
GET A REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM ROLLA THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN STRONG
SUBSIDENT FLOW. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. DID SEE A GUST TO 53 MPH AT GLEN ULLIN THIS
PAST HOUR. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM CST BUT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CENTRAL/5 MOUNTAIN. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER
WISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO A COLDER REGIME SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING LAKE WINNIPEG BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...AND ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY NOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS
AT 45 KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH 35 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 45 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON
BAY LOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE...WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY FROM THE 30S AND 40S...TO HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS DRY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KJMS AND KMOT
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ALL BUT ENDED...AND SWITCHED THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN FA TO JUST FLURRIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
HOLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (AND KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOUDY...PLUS THERE ARE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANYWAY). MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BEGIN ERODING FROM THE
WEST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING SECOND WAVE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF
FARGO..OUT OF THE AREA AND THE END OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. OVERALL THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN DECENT TODAY UNTIL 18Z AND 19Z
RUNS...WHICH KEPT HIGH POPS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOO LONG.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PULL THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER THE AREA INCREASES. A VORT
MAX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS HELPING GENERATE THE SECOND
WAVE OF PRECIP IN E CNTRL ND...WHICH CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER
BASICALLY THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BENSON
COUNTY ND TO WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY MN WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AROUND WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ELEVATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFT 03Z IN
EASTERN ND AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z...THUS EXPECT
PRECIP TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WINDS/MIXING SHOULD BE LIGHT...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
RATHER COOL...IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CNTRL
DAKOTAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS LIGHT MIXING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER WILL SPREAD PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INDICATING DRIZZLE
AS H700 LEVEL IS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER BY 15Z PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MODEST
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER AN EARLY HIGH AROUND 50. COOLER AIR
PULLED DOWN FROM CANADA MAY HELP TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...WINDS/MIXING DECREASE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...BRING DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA ARE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST
THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR SAGS AND HOW FAST. FOR SATURDAY THE INITIAL
BLAST WILL ONLY GRAZE OUR AREA...WITH 140KT TO 15KT 250MB JET OVER
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
FOR SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH...AS WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT. MODELS BREAK
OUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NORTH OF THIS ZONE. BASED ON 925MB
- 850 THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS LIGHT RAIN IS BEST BET.
FOR MONDAY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
LOWERING THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ON TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE...SIMILARLY PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF /
GFS/DGEX/GEM-NH...DROPS ACROSS THE CWFA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROP
TO 510DAM OR LOWER. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...925 TEMPS AROUND -10C
AND ARCTIC SCUD SUSPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR 0F QUITE POSSIBLE.
CALMER...DRIER AND UNSEASONALLY COLD WEATHER ENDS THIS PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE
INDICATES BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL MOSTLY VFR. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW
FAR SOUTH/WEST THESE CIGS WILL MAKE IT...AND USED THE RAP/HRRR FOR
GUIDANCE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1127 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT PULLING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED COLUMBUS SO BUMPED UP POPS A TAD ACROSS
SERN FORECAST AREA. DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS NW OH A FEW DEGREES AS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR NOW AND DEW POINTS ALREADY IN MID 30S.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE SE HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL BE IMPROVING MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LIFT AND PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. WILL
PULL THE THREAT FOR SHRA A LITTLE FURTHER NW BASED ON 12Z MODEL
RUNS. THE NW AND AROUND ERI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY
TONIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE NW...THE INCREASING COMBINATION OF FACTORS
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK. GFS/MAV LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST RUC RUN SO WILL UNDERCUT MAV POPS SOME.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SEE NO
REASON WHY WIDESPREAD RAIN WON`T OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA THU INTO THU
NIGHT. INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL BY THU SO COULD BE SOME THUNDER
FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH THU NIGHT FOR ENOUGH WET
SNOW TO OCCUR TO LEAD TO A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
AREAS. LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING
UNLESS THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRI SO WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN
THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT WELL INTO FRI NIGHT SO SOME LIGHT SHSN
MAY LINGER BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP THREAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER ON
SAT. THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER FRI NIGHT SO SOME
CONCERN THAT FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR.
BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT LATER
ON SAT SO THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF AT LEAST SCT SHRA WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT SEEING
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGEOVER TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAT
NIGHT. MAYBE SOME ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE WORST THAT
COULD HAPPEN.
EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...TEMPS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY CAN
REBOUND ENOUGH TO EVEN GET BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES EAST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY MORE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OTHER AREAS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH STILL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE NOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO
MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST TOWARD MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
IN. FOR THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INVOF LAKE MI OVERNIGHT
AND MOVES INTO/ACROSS NRN OHIO THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THERE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND IFR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROF NOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD WITH
UNSETTLED WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOT GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THEN YET
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE RAP HAS
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS
EVENING AND THEN THIS RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PAINTING A BROAD AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE ARW AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THAT
THE SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. FOR COLLABORATION REASONS...STAYED WITH THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT A BIT CONCERNED THAT THEY MAY BE TOO
HIGH FOR THESE TWO AREAS. MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE
THERE IS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...850 MB QG CONVERGENCE...WEAK
850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED. WET BULB ZEROS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUNDINGS WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR
THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29 MAY BE UP TO AN
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DPROG/DT SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHIFTED THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE COBB DATA FOR KAUW SUGGESTS BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH IN THE NAM AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GFS. MEANWHILE
IN KEAU...THERE IS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EITHER MODEL.
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 05.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A VERY
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE 05.12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GEM HAS NEARLY 0.75 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB AIR
SPILLS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
NAEFS STANDARDIZED 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF ARE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN -12 AND -16C. MEANWHILE THE GFS
HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED
SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND IT
STILL BEING ON DAY 6 AND 7...JUST STAYED WITH THE SUPER BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED KLSE/KRST AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER ACROSS
NORTHERN WI/EAST-CENTRAL MN AND WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06.15Z. CAN EXPECT PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE IN LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR MIST. THINK ANY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY
NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
256 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL
DECREASE EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITIES WERE OBSERVED THROUGH PARTS
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM BAKERSFIELD NORTH INTO
MERCED...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVER
DOING THE DENSE FOG...BUT AT LEAST HAS A HANDLE ON THE LOW
VISIBILITY AREA...INDICATING LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH 10 AM.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST...WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BEING THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WELL INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS...AS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE IS CALLING FOR A HIGH MEASURE
OF PREDICTABILITY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PLANTED OVER CALIFORNIA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS NO RAIN FOR THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ADDITIONALLY...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICATION CENTERS 8 TO
14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 13TH THROUGH THE 19TH) THERE
IS AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...MVFR IN HAZE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 10Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6 2014... UNHEALTHY IN KINGS AND TULARE
COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN AND
MADERA COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO
BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-06 87:1949 55:1890 57:1927 33:1947
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KBFL 11-06 91:1949 57:1945 60:1970 30:1935
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MIAMI FL
831 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK FROM NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A NORTH DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON, WNW AROUND 8 KTS. OTHERWISE E TO NE WINDS OF THE SAME
SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA`S
WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BE RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL
LOWER TO A MODERATE RISK THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO, WITH THIS
AIRMASS ORIGINATING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK QUICKLY MODIFYING THE AIRMASS BUT REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND DIMINISHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT EVEN AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO BUILDING
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 65 79 66 / 20 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 73 82 69 / 20 0 10 20
MIAMI 83 69 82 69 / 20 0 10 20
NAPLES 84 67 82 63 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL
TURN WINDY ON THE LAKESHORE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND TIMING TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AFTER 03Z THE GFS LOWERS THE FREEZING LEVEL
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY.
THUS AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS
LOW...AND IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY AT THAT TIME. I KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS FOR TODAY...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS
RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS STRATIFORM RAIN. RADAR SHOWS THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NEARLY ALL LOCATION SHOULD
MEASURE...BUT THE REASONING FOR THE HIGH POPS.
AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE MOST DEEP FROM
LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. THIS IS WHERE I WILL FEATURE GENERALLY
LIKELY POPS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN EVENT AS WELL AS THE
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST MELTING WILL OCCUR. INTERIOR NORTHER LOCATIONS
LIKE HARRISON COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN GIVEN THE COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT MIXED
PCPN WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WELL NORTH OF I-96 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AIDED BY
POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PORTIONS OF
OUR FCST AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS BY THEN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA.
NW TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12 C BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.
AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME FAVORS
NORTHERN LOWER MI AND UPPER MI FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMS TUE-WED DUE TO GREATER DELTA T/S... DEEPER MOISTURE AND
AIRMASS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN SO... SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
IMPACTS TO AVIATORS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND THEY WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKESHORE.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO VFR AS
DRIER AIR COMES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FSL RUC AND DEEPER
MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GALES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER AS WELL..THUS I WILL HAVE THE GALES STARTING AROUND
18Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER
RISES WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY IS NOW LEAVING
MILWAUKEE AND ON ITS WAY TO MUSKEGON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF ITS WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WERE PULLING OUT OF ALBERT LEA AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3
AM...WITH THE REST OF THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS 12 HR H5 HEIGHT RISES
INCREASE TO OVER 120 M THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
MONTANA QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
BIGGEST ISSUE IN WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE SEEN A NICE
HOLE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS
BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. WITH FLOW REMAINING CYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO FILL IN ONCE WE GET SOME
DAYTIME MIXING GOING SO TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE FOR THE SKY
GRIDS TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS...WITH THE DAKOTAS
CLOUD BANK KEEPING A BKN STRATOCU FIELD GOING MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MPX CWA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AS A SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STARTS WORKING INTO MN...WE WILL START TO SEE
WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUR RUN OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TONIGHT...THE
NEXT FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAA PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN FACT...ALL HI-RES MODELS ARE
FORECASTING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BELOW H7 OUT WEST
SHOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA. THE TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT THOUGH WILL BE LOWS. WE WILL BE
STARTING OUT THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...SO WILL
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE AREA THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND THEREFORE GET
THE COLDEST IS OVER IN WRN WI. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH..THEN PLACES OUT TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS AND LADYSMITH COULD
SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SECONDARY FORECAST EMPHASIS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN FULL
SWING...WHILE H7-H6 FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LOWER 40S OVER WI. THIS WILL MEAN PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWS THE PRECIP TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH
OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT JUST PRIOR TO IT ENDING.
TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...AS A
SURFACE LOW DIPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THAT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING PRECIP IN MUCH
SOONER ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE GEM AND TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF
/HOPWRF-TS/ ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS....AND BRING IN PRECIP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS AGAIN AN UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE RAIN-SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND FORCING GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN-SNOW COMING TO AN END. WILL LIKELY
SEE FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER HEIGHTS SLAM INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BLASTING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE MARKED BY DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AS H85 TEMPS LOITER AROUND -12C TO -15C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH CLOUD COVER. SFC
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A SFC RIDGE ARCING AROUND THE NW SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW NOW MOVING INTO WEST MICH. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE HAS HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NRN MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A FINGER OF IFR CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS WRN MN AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO REMAIN MOIST...WITH
CU RULE FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE ON THE NAM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE WE GET A LITTLE HEATING/MIXING
GOING...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
DEVELOP...LIKELY HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR. WHATS LEFT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET...BUT NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO THICKENING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. RH PROFILES BELOW 10K FEET ARE QUITE DRY
AT AXN/RWF AT THE END OF THE TAF...SO KEPT THOSE LOCATIONS
DRY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE SEEING VIRGA BY THE END OF THE TAF.
KMSP...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 025-035. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY OUT IN WRN MN WILL
REMAIN WEST OF MSP...WITH CLOUDS HERE EXPECTED TO BE NO LOWER THAN
020. WINDS WILL BE GOOD FOR RUNNING A 30/35 OPERATION
TODAY...WITH WINDS CONVENIENTLY SWITCHING BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT
WHEN TRAFFIC IS LIGHT. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME VIRGA BY THE END OF
THE TAF...BUT DRY ATMO BELOW 10K SHOULD KEEP IT AT THAT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY IS NOW LEAVING
MILWAUKEE AND ON ITS WAY TO MUSKEGON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF ITS WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WERE PULLING OUT OF ALBERT LEA AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3
AM...WITH THE REST OF THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS 12 HR H5 HEIGHT RISES
INCREASE TO OVER 120 M THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
MONTANA QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
BIGGEST ISSUE IN WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE SEEN A NICE
HOLE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS
BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. WITH FLOW REMAINING CYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO FILL IN ONCE WE GET SOME
DAYTIME MIXING GOING SO TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE FOR THE SKY
GRIDS TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS...WITH THE DAKOTAS
CLOUD BANK KEEPING A BKN STRATOCU FIELD GOING MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MPX CWA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AS A SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STARTS WORKING INTO MN...WE WILL START TO SEE
WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUR RUN OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TONIGHT...THE
NEXT FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAA PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN FACT...ALL HI-RES MODELS ARE
FORECASTING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BELOW H7 OUT WEST
SHOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA. THE TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT THOUGH WILL BE LOWS. WE WILL BE
STARTING OUT THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...SO WILL
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE AREA THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND THEREFORE GET
THE COLDEST IS OVER IN WRN WI. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH..THEN PLACES OUT TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS AND LADYSMITH COULD
SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SECONDARY FORECAST EMPHASIS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN FULL
SWING...WHILE H7-H6 FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LOWER 40S OVER WI. THIS WILL MEAN PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWS THE PRECIP TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH
OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT JUST PRIOR TO IT ENDING.
TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...AS A
SURFACE LOW DIPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THAT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING PRECIP IN MUCH
SOONER ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE GEM AND TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF
/HOPWRF-TS/ ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS....AND BRING IN PRECIP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS AGAIN AN UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE RAIN-SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND FORCING GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN-SNOW COMING TO AN END. WILL LIKELY
SEE FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER HEIGHTS SLAM INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BLASTING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE MARKED BY DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AS H85 TEMPS LOITER AROUND -12C TO -15C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI...BUT
IT IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. IFR CIGS SHROUD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER VFR CIGS ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THESE BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD ROTATE ACROSS ERN MN AND
WRN WI LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD CLIP AXN AND STC BEFORE MORE IFR
CIGS ACROSS ERN ND MOVE BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL RISE
GRADUALLY THURSDAY AND CLEAR OUT LATE IN THE DAY.
KMSP...IFR CONDITIONS AT THE START...BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS S 10 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
...STILL NO MEANINGFUL PRECIP ENVISIONED AND TEMPS ALTERNATE
COOLER/WARMER EACH DAY THRU MON BEFORE A HUGE COLD SURGE NEXT
WEEK...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE FLOW FEATURED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND
TROF IN THE E. A SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THRU THE
RIDGE. THE FLOW HERE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NW TODAY
AND BACK TO WNW TONIGHT AS THE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THRU.
SURFACE: THE REGION WAS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.
HIGH PRES WAS OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL SLIP E OF THE REGION TODAY.
THE PAC LOW MOVING ONSHORE WILL REFORM OVER ALBERTA...WITH ITS
COOL FRONT MOVING ONSHORE AND A WARM FRONT FORMING FROM MT-WY-CO.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE COOL FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.
NO ADVERSE WX EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT.
THRU SUNRISE: P-M/CLOUDY AS LARGE SWATHS OF CIRROSTRATUS AND
ALTOCU DRIFT THRU. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WITH PLENTY OF
COLOR. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR 6-7 AM AND WILL BE IN THE 30S.
TODAY: P-M/SUNNY AND ROUGHLY 10F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. PLENTY OF CIRROSTRATUS SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUN AT TIMES.
TONIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
IN. FCST SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM M/CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY AND
BELIEVE WE ARE STILL TOO LOW. ENVISION SKIES TURNING M/CLOUDY SO
LATER FCSTS WILL PROBABLY BE CLOUDIER.
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS /BC-CONSRAW/
FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT TRANSLATES TO 54-61F WITH
56-57 FOR THE TRI-CITIES TODAY...AND 33-40F TONIGHT WITH 37-38F IN
THE TRI-CITIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE HOW COLD IT WILL BECOME NEXT WEEK.
WE START OUT FRIDAY WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT PASSAGE AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. I LIKED A COMBINATION OF CONSRAW AND
NAM12 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...WHICH LANDS US WELL INTO THE
60S FOR HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. I TEND TO
LIKE BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS FOR THE DAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THIS ACTUALLY BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MOST LIKELY WITH HELP OF SOME
DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL ENSUE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS AMPLIFICATION OCCURS AMONG LONGWAVES...AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST WITH THE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY
OVERCOME MUCH OF THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN TRYING TO OCCUR OVER
PART OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND TO THE WEST. ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE CLOBBERED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH BEHIND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER...BUT THE BULK OF COLD AIR DOES NOT
APPEAR TO MAKE IT IN FOR MOST OF MONDAY...SO NOT GOING INCREDIBLY
COLD FOR THIS DAY...BUT A TRICKY GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL
KEEP THINGS CHALLENGING...WITH 40S TO 60S FOR HIGHS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MOST MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. WE COULD ALSO GET ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS TO EVEN
GET SOME SNOW FLURRIES GOING MONDAY NIGHT.
WE GET COMPLETELY CLOBBERED BY COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT OF THIS AS LONG-TERM NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. IT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
AND WITH THIS IN MIND...I WENT WITH CONSRAW TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONSRAW PERFORMS THE BEST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT
LEAST IN THE -7C REALM OVER OUR CWA. THIS INDICATES THAT WE WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND WITH ANY CONSIDERABLE SKY
COVER...WE MAY BE DESTINED TO NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR. LONG
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THESE TWO
DAYS...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED...SINCE MODELS ARE RELYING WAY TOO
MUCH ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SITUATION THAT DOES NOT WARRANT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
TODAY: LLWS WILL CONT UNTIL 15Z. VFR MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 8K FT. ONLY THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MID-
LVL CIGS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NEB PER SATELLITE. NW WINDS UNDER
10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES DRIFTS OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR CIRROSTRATUS CIGS AT OR ABOVE 20K FT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME S-SSE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM AFTER 08Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
514 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
NEAR TERM FCST PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA SWEEPING OUT OF CANADIAN AND INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. ALL THIS IN PART TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF SITUATED OVER THE ERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS REVEALING A SFC LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SWD THRUST OF CAA MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. RUC13 SHOWING SFC PRES GRAD REMAINING TIGHT
THE REST OF THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM W-E THIS
AFTN.
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS...GOING MAX/MIN TEMP FCST COMPARED MET/MAV
GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEM REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF CAA TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
U40S/L50S.
ON FRIDAY...WAA REGIME SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SERN STATES. MET HIGHS SEEM TO
COOL GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLY FLOW AND PREFER LEANING TOWARD WARMER
MAV/ECM SOLUTIONS.
FOR SAT...MET/MAV ARE IN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WHEN BULK OF CAA MOVES IN. NUMBERS SEEM REASONABLE THUS SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARE IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED PDS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE PCPN SUN NIGHT/MON WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH. IT SEEMS YESTERDAYS CMC RUN HAD THE RIGHT IDEA LAYING QPF
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AND NOW
WITH BOTH GFS/ECM ARE ADVERTISING THE SAME...HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS.
OTHERWISE....NOTICEABLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON ENVELOPES THE REGION AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
AREA OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN FL015 AND FL025 WILL AFFECT KOFK AND
KOMA THROUGH MID MORNING AS CLOUDS ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS MAY REACH KLNK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KT AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 18Z WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 12KT THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING OHIO LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AT 1000 AM...RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM JHW-ROC WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS. THIS AREA IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE HRRR (AND MOST OTHER
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE)...WHICH IS JUST A HAIR FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. EXPECT THIS SLUG OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND BRING A STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT TO
MOST OF THE CWA. THE ONLY AREAS WHICH MAY MISS OUT ARE FAR NW
PORTIONS...SUCH AS NIAGARA COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE FORCING. QPF SHOULD RUN BETWEEN .50 AND .75 ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED UNDER THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY AREA WHICH HAS A CHANCE TO
WARM IS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE RAIN
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHILLY
AND RAINY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT WITH A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION PUSHED BACK IN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AN INCREASE INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINED EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREA SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
FURTHERMORE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL AND DIURNAL TIMING WILL
COINCIDE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE BEGIN
WHAT WILL BE A PARADE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A
DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE IN THE MORNING TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL COUPLE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE SUPPORTED BY A PERIOD OF DPVA AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY...ALLOWING PRECIP COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST.
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS INTO
THE REGION WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOLING
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A TREND TOWARDS MAINLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE
1-2 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON THE GRASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT...BUT
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC...GREATLY
DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO END DURING THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A MEAN 320
FLOW DURING THE EVENING FAVORING AREAS FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH JUST A
SPOTTY COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE APPROACHING RIDGE
AXIS AND BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THIS TO END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ASCENT INTO WESTERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY LATER IN THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT FIRST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AROUND THE TIME OF THE
FROPA TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE LAKES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE RAIN INITIALLY WHEN THIS
BEGINS TO OCCUR. COLD ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOWS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO MIX WITH WET SNOW FIRST ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN THEN LATER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS.
A PERIOD OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A DECIDED
TREND TOWARDS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. WHILE THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WIDE RUN TO RUN SWINGS
IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...SUNDAY MORNING A CHILLY WESTERLY FLOW OF
-8C TO -10C AIR AT 850MB WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH A RIDGE NEARBY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS
MAY LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF LAKE SNOW. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BRING INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM
THE CENTRAL LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. LATEST
GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF MAKING A MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
ECMWF APPEARS MUCH TOO FAST AND TOO FAR EAST WITH A MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW RACING ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS AND ALSO THE 12Z
ECMWF...IN MOVING THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OUR PREFERENCE LIES WITH
THE 00Z/06 GFS AND 12Z/05 ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH WITH THE ONGOING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ANY FORECAST OF PLACEMENT OR INTENSITY
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PREMATURE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE
INITIAL RAINFALL...WITH MORE ABRUPT LOWERING TO THE IFR CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NE. LOWER
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHERLY AND INCREASES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT ANOTHER AREA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SNOW MIXING
IN SPOTS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO / LAKE ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/APFFEL
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING GRAND RAPIDS MI WITH HEIGHT FALLS
CENTERED OVER OHIO AND PA. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NE OHIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WITH
RAIN A CERTAINTY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS MID MORNING
UPDATE. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE
WHERE CAPES FORECAST TO GET TO 250-400 J/KG. HOWEVER DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST AS BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT TEMPS
ACTUALLY DO GET CLOSE TO 50 AND NOT HOVER THE IN MID/UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. WILL BE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...IN FACT ALL PRECIP BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING UNLESS THE
PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING ISSUES ON
ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
MOISTURE PULLS OUT QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN
INCH. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. BUT THE 850MB RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT CUTTING
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVED OVER THE NE. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LUCKILY ALL PRECIP
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...IN THE MEANTIME
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON GOING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN
THE SNOW BELT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW BUT WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY
AS A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AND THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY NOON.
GOING WITH DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS WE
WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS ARE WHICH MODELS TO GO WITH AND DO WE NEED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE A LOW UP THROUGH MICHIGAN AND THEN DRY A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THUS LEAVING THE AREA WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME
LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT TRIED TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY THE
THREAT LOOKS GOOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DIDN`T GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY ON THE POPS YET BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. AS THE
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTRODUCED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE GFS SO KEPT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE
GFS IS FAIRLY MOIST WHILE THE OTHERS ARE NOT. KEPT IT AT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH NE OH AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN MORE SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL
HAD FORECASTED THIS. FOR THE AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY
MVFR VISIBILITIES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME BRIEF 2SM IN RAIN
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS TO THE EAST COAST. ANY THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE WITH FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND REACH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND THEN START INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AND IT WILL ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS AND THEN THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINDS COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AND THAT WILL CAUSE SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEYOND 3 MILES FROM SHORE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INSTEAD OF MOVING IT
THROUGH MICHIGAN. NONE THE LEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE THREAT WILL
LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
712 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CHANGES TO ORIGINAL FORECAST. TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN AND TEMPS
SLIGHTLY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HEIGHT FALLS
CENTERED OVER OHIO. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW INTO
SE LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z THEN ACROSS NE OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
TRACKS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE WHERE CAPES FORECAST TO GET TO 250-400
J/KG. HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST AS BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. WILL BE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...IN FACT ALL PRECIP BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING UNLESS THE
PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING ISSUES ON
ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
MOISTURE PULLS OUT QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN
INCH. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL TOWARD
EVENING. BUT THE 850MB RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT CUTTING
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVED OVER THE NE. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LUCKILY ALL PRECIP
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...IN THE MEANTIME
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON GOING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN
THE SNOW BELT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW BUT WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY
AS A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AND THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY NOON.
GOING WITH DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS WE
WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS ARE WHICH MODELS TO GO WITH AND DO WE NEED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE A LOW UP THROUGH MICHIGAN AND THEN DRY A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THUS LEAVING THE AREA WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME
LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT TRIED TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY THE
THREAT LOOKS GOOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DIDN`T GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY ON THE POPS YET BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. AS THE
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTRODUCED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE GFS SO KEPT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE
GFS IS FAIRLY MOIST WHILE THE OTHERS ARE NOT. KEPT IT AT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH NE OH AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN MORE SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL
HAD FORECASTED THIS. FOR THE AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY
MVFR VISIBILITIES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME BRIEF 2SM IN RAIN
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS TO THE EAST COAST. ANY THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE WITH FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND REACH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND THEN START INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AND IT WILL ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS AND THEN THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINDS COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AND THAT WILL CAUSE SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEYOND 3 MILES FROM SHORE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INSTEAD OF MOVING IT
THROUGH MICHIGAN. NONE THE LEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE THREAT WILL
LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
818 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL REFORM OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CREATE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ANOTHER BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
THE WIDE SHIELD OF RAIN HAS MOVED RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WITH
A LARGE BREAK/DRY SLOT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. THUS
FAR...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PRETTY STUBBORN AND PRODUCING SOME DZ
THERE...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE OVC THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. SHOWERY
PRECIP ALREADY ON THE REGIONAL RADAR OVER WRN PA AND OH. FOR
NOW...LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT VERY
HIGH...AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...UPPER LVL WINDS
QUITE STRONG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE LOW TO QUICKLY REFORM OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING GIVEN
VERY STRONG DYNMAICS IN PLACE. THE AIRASS IN PLACE IS QUITE DRY
AT LOW LEVELS...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MAIN STORM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR LAKE SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND
SHOULD KEEP THE PROFILES WARM ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO MELT SNOW
BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN
WESTERN COS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH IN THE
MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN TO MAINLY RAIN
CONCURRENTLY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FCST.
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING
THE STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL
LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT
REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE
SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE MODERATE RAIN AREA...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONAL ELSEWHERE.
WEAKNESS IN RAIN SHIELD ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE HRRR SHOWING MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING TO PIVOT NORTH OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN ITS WAKE...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP AS CORE OF UPPER TROF ROTATES OVER THE
AREA.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FLYING CONDITIONS IS THAT AN EXPECTED GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SOME VFR
CONDITIONS...WHILE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AIRFIELDS WILL ONLY
STRUGGLE TO REACH MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL AT
TIMES BE RESTRICTED IN SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO THE EAST...BUT CAA WILL
GENERATE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IFR IN NUMEROUS SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT NIGHT...SHRA DEVELOPING FROM TO EAST WITH CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
644 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL REFORM OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME BY MONDAY...BUT A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A STEADY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AS A STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST. DEWPOINTS NOT VERY
HIGH...AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...UPPER LVL WINDS QUITE STRONG...SO SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE LOW TO QUICKLY REFORM OFF THE COAST LATE TODAY...GIVEN
VERY STRONG DYNMAICS IN PLACE.
SPC HAS NOTHING IN OUR AREA...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. THE
AIRASS IN PLACE IS QUITE DRY AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FCST.
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING
THE STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL
LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT
REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE
SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE MODERATE RAIN AREA...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONAL ELSEWHERE.
WEAKNESS IN RAIN SHIELD ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE HRRR SHOWING MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING TO PIVOT NORTH OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN ITS WAKE...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP AS CORE OF UPPER TROF ROTATES OVER THE
AREA.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FLYING CONDITIONS IS THAT AN EXPECTED GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SOME VFR
CONDITIONS...WHILE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AIRFIELDS WILL ONLY
STRUGGLE TO REACH MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL AT
TIMES BE RESTRICTED IN SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO THE EAST...BUT CAA WILL
GENERATE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IFR IN NUMEROUS SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT NIGHT...SHRA DEVELOPING FROM TO EAST WITH CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR AND RUC OUTPUTS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ALSO...12Z DRT
SOUNDING SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS DRYING AS WELL AS THE WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z FOR MOST
AREAS...LEADING TO REINFORCED IFR AND MVFR CIGS FOR THE I-35
TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
THE NORTH...AND STEADY N WINDS SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENTS TO BKN
VFR CIGS OVER ALL TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE BKN VFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH TIME-HEIGHT
FORECASTS SUGGESTING CIGS OF 7000-10000 FT FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF
THE TAF PERIODS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESSES TAKE PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL OPEN WAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH AND DRY THINGS OUT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUDS LINGER AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SOILS REMAIN COOL DUE TO RECENT RAINS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TRAVERSES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BACK DOOR DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WON`T LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RAPIDLY
RETURNS BY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. THIS IS THE COOLEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS
SEASON. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WED...THU AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONLY TO
CLIMB TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS AND NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 50 67 52 69 / 20 - 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 47 67 49 68 / 20 - 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 67 50 70 / 30 10 20 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 47 66 49 68 / 10 - - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 53 62 49 72 / 40 40 30 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 47 66 50 68 / 20 - - 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 50 61 47 70 / 30 20 30 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 49 67 50 69 / 30 10 10 20 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 50 68 51 68 / 30 - 10 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 52 65 51 70 / 30 10 30 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 53 65 51 70 / 30 10 30 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
543 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE 12Z TAFS. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 80 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 80 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 90 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 90 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 63 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 71 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 80 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 80 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 90 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 90 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 63 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 71 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1027 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO LONG ISLAND TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO THE EAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST THURSDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE THESE SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAVE ALLOWED CLOUD COVER TO
SCATTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EAST BECAUSE OF THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WIND FLOW...BUT WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS THIS EVENING AS HIGH LEVELS
OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB BANK UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE FROM 00Z/7PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 12Z/7PM FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWED UP TO A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY INTERSECT HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAXIMUM GUSTS JUST BELOW 40S KNOTS.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR MAV VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL WITHIN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH 850 MB WINDS AROUND 35-40
KTS WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SAME NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SUBSIDENCE WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LIMITED IF ANY CLOUD COVER. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES..THE 850
MB FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND BACKS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. ALSO...DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL
BE TREND TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST...AND ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES...WHILE LOWER BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT
WILL BE MODERATED A BIT IN THE EAST BY THE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT A MIX OF 50S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WITH THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH RIDGE TOP GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED WITH
WEAKER GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WEST AS THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...AND 850 MB
FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK SOUTHWEST. NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 30S THE NORM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO SOME UPSLOPE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CARRY DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE
WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUAL WARMING UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUES PM/WEDS AM...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLING
WEDS WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FRONTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EAST COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY. LOW-MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING WARMING...UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF TO MAINE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS IN THE WESTERN
AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C...COOL TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING RAPIDLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. 11Z/6AM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A STRIPE OF IFR CEILINGS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. RADAR SHOWED BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOWED A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z/1PM AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 00Z/7PM...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOP LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ADVANCE ALL THE WAY EAST TO KBCB TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE REGION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KBLF AND KLWB WILL HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SE WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY...AND
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BRIEF RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY WHEN IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH FROM THE
NW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
711 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO LONG ISLAND TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO THE EAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY APPROACHING UPPER
TROF HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. DRY SLOT AROUND
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST BY 18Z/1PM
AND EAST BY 00Z/7PM. THIS IS CONSERVATIVE TIMING. THE 00Z LOCAL WRF
SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE OUT OF THE EAST BY 20Z/3PM.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EAST BUT FILL BACK IN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS THIS
EVENING AS HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE FROM 00Z/7PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 12Z/7PM FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWED UP TO A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY INTERSECT HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAXIMUM GUSTS JUST BELOW 40S KNOTS.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR MAV VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL WITHIN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH 850 MB WINDS AROUND 35-40
KTS WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SAME NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SUBSIDENCE WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND LIMITED IF ANY CLOUD COVER. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES..THE 850
MB FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND BACKS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. ALSO...DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL
BE TREND TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST...AND ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES...WHILE LOWER BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT
WILL BE MODERATED A BIT IN THE EAST BY THE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT A MIX OF 50S FOR HIGHS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WITH THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH RIDGE TOP GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED WITH
WEAKER GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WEST AS THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...AND 850 MB
FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK SOUTHWEST. NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 30S THE NORM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO SOME UPSLOPE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CARRY DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE
WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUAL WARMING UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUES PM/WEDS AM...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLING
WEDS WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FRONTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EAST COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY. LOW-MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING WARMING...UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF TO MAINE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS IN THE WESTERN
AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C...COOL TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING RAPIDLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. 11Z/6AM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A STRIPE OF IFR CEILINGS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. RADAR SHOWED BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOWED A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z/1PM AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND
COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 00Z/7PM...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOP LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ADVANCE ALL THE WAY EAST TO KBCB TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE REGION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KBLF AND KLWB WILL HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
...BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SE WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY...AND
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BRIEF RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY WHEN IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH FROM THE
NW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
952 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
PERSISTENT HAZE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG
WILL DECREASE EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STAGNANT AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
INVERSION CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A HAZE LAYER OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...PATCHY LOW VISIBILITIES WERE OBSERVED THROUGH PARTS
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM BAKERSFIELD NORTH INTO
MERCED...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE OVER
DOING THE DENSE FOG...BUT AT LEAST HAS A HANDLE ON THE LOW
VISIBILITY AREA...INDICATING LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH 10 AM.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST...WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BEING THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WELL INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS...AS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE IS CALLING FOR A HIGH MEASURE
OF PREDICTABILITY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PLANTED OVER CALIFORNIA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS NO RAIN FOR THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ADDITIONALLY...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICATION CENTERS 8 TO
14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 13TH THROUGH THE 19TH) THERE
IS AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN MIST/HAZE
THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...THEN MVFR IN HAZE UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY...THEN
IFR IN MIST WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6 2014... UNHEALTHY IN
KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND MADERA COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-06 87:1949 55:1890 57:1927 33:1947
KFAT 11-07 85:1930 53:1920 57:1913 33:1947
KFAT 11-08 85:1955 56:2004 59:2002 33:1897
KBFL 11-06 91:1949 57:1945 60:1970 30:1935
KBFL 11-07 91:1941 58:2011 58:1949 32:1908
KBFL 11-08 95:1918 55:1903 61:2002 31:1937
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW A LULL IN THE SHOWER
COVERAGE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SHOWERS IS STILL LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS SOUTH OF
PHL MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST SLOWLY
LIMPS THROUGH TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT CAN MAKE IT
TODAY BEFORE WASHING OUT, SO EVEN THOUGH WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN ALL
DAY FROM ITS PASSAGE THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST/DRIZZLE AROUND.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF CLEARING OCCURS, MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
WE WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND THE DELAWARE BAY VICINITY.
HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW STRAY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. STRONGER WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITHIN
ANY ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ON THE UPPER
DELMARVA. THOSE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12:30 PM UPDATE SLOWS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT SOME, WHICH KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE TODAY AND IT WILL DEPEND UPON
A LOCATIONS RELATION TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SPEEDS
MAY INCREASE TO 8 TO 14 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE PASSING NEAR CAPE COD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. IT SHOULD
PULL AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA AND A LIGHT WEST WIND
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER ALONG
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT. A WEST NORTHWEST
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT THAT TIME.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S UP NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NR THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BE MOVG NEWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION ERLY IN THE PD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
IMPROVING CONDS RESULT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR A GUSTY NW WIND THRU ERLY
FRI NIGHT.
THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND EXPECT DRY BUT COOL WX.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, A WK CDFNT,
ASSOCD WITH A LARGE LOW NR HUDSON BAY WILL CROSS N OF THE AREA AND
CUD TRIGGER SOME SHWRS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS
FRONT TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER. THE ECMWF IS BASICALLY DRY AND THE
GFS HAS SOME SHOWERS, WITH LOW QPF.
BEHIND THE CFP, HIGH PRES RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR MON INTO
EARLY TUE, BRINGING A RETURN OF NICE WX WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABV NRML.
THEN, THE MDLS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT
SYS AROUND MIDWEEK. THE GFS DEVELOPS LOW PRES IN THE MID-MS VLY
AND BRINGS A CDFNT THRU WITH SOME PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE AND A LESS DEFINED
FEATURE ACRS THE PLAINS AND OH VLY. IT MOVES THIS FEATURE SWD AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A WK LOW NR THE MID-ATLC WHICH THEN MOVES OUT
TO SEA.
DESPITE THE DIFFS THOUGH, THE OUTCOME IS THE SAME, SOME PRECIP ON
WED, THOUGH THE LOCATION AND TIMING MAY BE DIFFERENT.
FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS AND SEE HOW THIS SYS
EVOLVES.
TEMPS START OUT BELOW NRML, WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING SAT, THEN
BEGIN TO RETURN TO NRML OR SLIGHTLY ABV AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND SWLY FLOW RETURNS, BEFORE ANOTHER CFP COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREVIALING IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF
MIST/DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED TO MVFR LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AFTER MIDDAY AND COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD
BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS, SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINALS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND A STIFFER WEST WIND
DEVELOPS ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. A GUSTY NW WIND 20-30
KT THRU FRI NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN...MVFR PSBL AS A CDFNT APPROACHES AND CUD BRING SOME SHWRS.
LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AT NOON AND
IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AND FOR TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY FOR
TONIGHT.
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD NEAR
5 FEET ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE MUCH FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU FRI WITH THE
MRNG PACKAGE AND WITH NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE CFP ALSO RAISED SCA ON
DEL BAY. LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IS THE BEST CHC FOR GALES, BUT
STILL NOT SURE ON DURATION SO HAVE HELD OFF GALE WATCH ISSUANCE,
BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS.
SAT...WIND AND SEAS SHUD GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
SUN...A WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION, AND SEAS AND WIND WILL
INCREASE A BIT. ITS PSBL THAT MARGINAL SCA CONDS COULD BE MET FOR
A TIME, ESPECIALLY ERLY SUN.
MON...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/IOVINO/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1243 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.AVIATION...
E TO NE WINDS TO 10 KTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WAITING FOR POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT AND SEA BREEZE
AT APF THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW, N TO NW WINDS FROM 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK FROM NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A NORTH DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON, WNW AROUND 8 KTS. OTHERWISE E TO NE WINDS OF THE SAME
SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA`S
WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BE RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL
LOWER TO A MODERATE RISK THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO, WITH THIS
AIRMASS ORIGINATING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK QUICKLY MODIFYING THE AIRMASS BUT REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND DIMINISHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT EVEN AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO BUILDING
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 79 66 78 / 0 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 82 69 81 / 0 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 82 69 81 / 0 10 20 20
NAPLES 67 82 63 81 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1224 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS FAR NW GA. A LINE OF SHOWERS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BREAK UP. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
DURING MAX HEATING...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS MOSTLY SCATTERED. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER...BUT POPS/TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK FINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
TIMING TOOL ON AREA RADAR SIGNATURES SHOW THE THIN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN 8 AM AND
10 AM THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING COLUMBUS AND MACON. STILL NO THUNDER EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE
ASSOCIATED RAIN FIELD THAT IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FAIRLY
BROKEN AND NARROW AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNL MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST... BUT PROGGED BY MODELS
TO SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN 6-9 AM THIS MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN PROBABLY PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING THE COLUMBUS AND MACON AREAS...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO PARTS OF
FAR CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 0.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GA... AND MAINLY
JUST A TRACE TO MAYBE 0.10 INCHES FOR SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL GA.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA BETWEEN 2-4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN COLUMBUS AND MACON BETWEEN 4-7 PM TODAY. EXPECT
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS ABOUT 6-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT... GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S... OR ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.
39
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE CWA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH BUILT IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF HAVE FINALLY
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 6 WITH A MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FOR DAY 7. THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT STARTS OF THE EXTENDED DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH SAT. BY SAT NIGHT IT HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING OFF SHORE
AS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPING SE THROUGH THE STATE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ONLY PUTTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUN
MORNING AND NOT TO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN. AFTER THIS DRY FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST CLEARING THINGS OUT FOR
MON/TUE. THERE IS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND SINKS SOUTH INTO NW GA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THIS FRONTAL PROGRESSION BUT THEY BOTH ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. LINE
OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO BREAK UP AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. SOME IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA...BUT
BEHIND THE PRECIP SKIES ARE CLEARING QUICKLY. SO...ANY CIGS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS SHOULD BREAK FAIRLY
QUICKLY. AS SOON AS SKIES START TO CLEAR...MIXING SHOULD BEGIN TO
OCCUR AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS FOR THE NEXT THREE HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 39 61 37 / 40 10 0 0
ATLANTA 69 40 58 39 / 40 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 63 34 55 31 / 60 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 67 36 57 34 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 42 62 41 / 30 5 0 0
GAINESVILLE 67 39 57 39 / 40 10 0 0
MACON 74 42 64 35 / 30 10 0 0
ROME 66 36 58 34 / 60 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 69 36 59 35 / 40 5 0 0
VIDALIA 78 46 66 40 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1207 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2014
Forecast remains on track, with the cold front almost clearing the
forecast area. Wrap around stratus will overtake much of the
region for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.
Still expecting an uptick in shower activity as cold air aloft
pours in. HRRR and other hi-res models show scattered to numerous
showers, mainly along and north of I-64. Pea sized hail/graupel
and a rumble or two of thunder still looking possible.
Temperatures won`t be rising too much further, holding steady in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Issued at 845 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2014
Forecast is largely on track so far with just minor updates this
morning. Scattered showers developing just ahead of the cold front
produced pea sized hail across southern Indiana and will track east
over the next few hours. As the cold air mass surges south behind
the front, the cold pool aloft will steepen the low-level lapse
rates and there should be an uptick in shower activity. Already
upstream there are a few showers developing. 1000-850mb lapse rates
approach 9C/km this afternoon with some instability noted in the
soundings. The greatest chance for showers looks to be the northern
half of the forecast area. The steep lapse rates, weak instability
and cold air aloft will allow any of the stronger showers to be
capable of producing small pea sized hail and a rumble or two of
thunder. The boundary layer will be well mixed up to the 800mb,
which will bring down gusts to 30 mph at times as well.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
The front which has been hung up across Kentucky is finally shifting
to the east tonight as another front approaches from the northwest.
The surface low associated with this front will move east through
the Great Lakes region today while an upper level trough strengthens
across the area. This front will swing through most of the forecast
area by mid afternoon.
This morning scattered showers area ongoing across east central
Kentucky. These will move out of the area over the next few hours.
However, additional isolated to scattered showers are expected to
develop today as the front move through and the trough builds in.
The best chance for showers today will be across southern Indiana
and north central KY. As heights fall aloft this afternoon low level
lapse rates will steepen. A rumble of thunder or two is not
completely out of the question across the northern Bluegrass.
However, chances for this are low, so will keep thunder out of the
forecast for now. Showers will slowly move out overnight with just a
few lingering across the Bluegrass after 06Z.
In addition to showers, it will be quite breezy today. Winds will
pick up to 15-20 mph by mid to late morning. Gusts through the
afternoon will be up to around 30 mph. As for temperatures, they
will move little today. We will then see them begin to fall late
this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Lows tonight will drop
into the mid to upper 30s.
High pressure will build in tomorrow and skies will be clearing.
Despite this, temperatures will remain on the cool side, topping out
in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
An elongated vortmax looks to cross the region during the day
Saturday, with a surface front coming through as well. Deterministic
and ensemble models are in good agreement with this features. They
also show a light QPF event, if any rain. Will keep lower end pops,
but this round of models shows that the front may come through at
the right time of day to allow a little more instability to develop
showers in our south. Thus will introduce a 20 pop down there.
The next system to bring a rain chance looks to be on Tuesday.
Models have been fairly consistent run to run on timing this front
through on Tuesday. Moisture will be deeper with this system than
the Saturday one, and should the front come through during peak
heating we may end up with a few rumbles of thunder. Not overly
confident on that timing just yet, so will keep thunder out of the
forecast, but will trend pops upward.
Monday still looks to be the warmest day of the period, with highs
around 60. The coldest will be behind the Tuesday front. Forecast
lows for Wednesday morning range from 27-32 degrees areawide. Think
the dry air will rush in here too quickly for a significant shot at
snow on the back side of the system, but for now will keep in a
slight chance for snow showers after midnight east of the I-65
corridor.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1145 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2014
Main aviation forecast challenge will be ceilings and precipitation
chances through this evening as cold front swings through the area.
By 18Z the front will have passed through all TAF sites, with
westerly winds becoming northwesterly this evening. Wrap around
stratus upstream is MVFR with bases 1500 to 2500 ft, and this will
overtake SDF/LEX for the afternoon and evening hours. During peak
heating today, there will scattered to numerous showers developing
which will be capable of producing 25 to 30 kt gusts and maybe some
small graupel/hail. BWG is expected to remain on the periphery of
this cloud deck, with scattered to broken VFR ceilings through this
evening.
Most of the showers will subside toward sunset, but stratus will
linger through the evening at SDF/LEX and the latest model guidance
suggests the MVFR stratus will remain at LEX through tomorrow
morning. Winds will subside as high pressure works east toward the
region tonight and especially for tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
105 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL
TURN WINDY ON THE LAKESHORE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND TIMING TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AFTER 03Z THE GFS LOWERS THE FREEZING LEVEL
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY.
THUS AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS
LOW...AND IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY AT THAT TIME. I KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS FOR TODAY...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS
RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS STRATIFORM RAIN. RADAR SHOWS THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NEARLY ALL LOCATION SHOULD
MEASURE...BUT THE REASONING FOR THE HIGH POPS.
AS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE MOST DEEP FROM
LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. THIS IS WHERE I WILL FEATURE GENERALLY
LIKELY POPS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN EVENT AS WELL AS THE
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST MELTING WILL OCCUR. INTERIOR NORTHER LOCATIONS
LIKE HARRISON COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN GIVEN THE COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT MIXED
PCPN WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WELL NORTH OF I-96 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AIDED BY
POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PORTIONS OF
OUR FCST AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS BY THEN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA.
NW TO WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12 C BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.
AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME FAVORS
NORTHERN LOWER MI AND UPPER MI FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMS TUE-WED DUE TO GREATER DELTA T/S... DEEPER MOISTURE AND
AIRMASS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN SO... SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR DETROIT AT NOON PULLS AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR
TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS AND CIGS LIFT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3000 FT.
MODERATE ICING OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN MI FROM THE FRZG
LVL TO 15000 FT. FRZLVL BETWEEN 3000-5000 FT AT 18Z FALLING TO
2000-4000 FEET BY 00Z. ICING THREAT DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS RAIN ENDS/DEPARTS.
THE IMPROVING TREND IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST... WITH MKG
SEEING IMPROVING CIGS AND DIMINISHING ICING THREAT EARLIEST AND
JXN THE LATEST. SEE TAFS FOR THE SPECIFIC CIG TIMING/DETAILS.
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS OR MORE DEVELOPING BY 21Z AND CONTINUING TO
AROUND 03Z. NNW SFC WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 03Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FSL RUC AND DEEPER
MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GALES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER AS WELL..THUS I WILL HAVE THE GALES STARTING AROUND
18Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER
RISES WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT US PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY IS NOW LEAVING
MILWAUKEE AND ON ITS WAY TO MUSKEGON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF ITS WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WERE PULLING OUT OF ALBERT LEA AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3
AM...WITH THE REST OF THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS 12 HR H5 HEIGHT RISES
INCREASE TO OVER 120 M THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
MONTANA QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
BIGGEST ISSUE IN WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE SEEN A NICE
HOLE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS
BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. WITH FLOW REMAINING CYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO FILL IN ONCE WE GET SOME
DAYTIME MIXING GOING SO TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE FOR THE SKY
GRIDS TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS...WITH THE DAKOTAS
CLOUD BANK KEEPING A BKN STRATOCU FIELD GOING MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MPX CWA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AS A SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STARTS WORKING INTO MN...WE WILL START TO SEE
WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUR RUN OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TONIGHT...THE
NEXT FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAA PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN FACT...ALL HI-RES MODELS ARE
FORECASTING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BELOW H7 OUT WEST
SHOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA. THE TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT THOUGH WILL BE LOWS. WE WILL BE
STARTING OUT THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...SO WILL
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE AREA THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND THEREFORE GET
THE COLDEST IS OVER IN WRN WI. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH..THEN PLACES OUT TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS AND LADYSMITH COULD
SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SECONDARY FORECAST EMPHASIS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN FULL
SWING...WHILE H7-H6 FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LOWER 40S OVER WI. THIS WILL MEAN PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOWS THE PRECIP TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH
OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT JUST PRIOR TO IT ENDING.
TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S...EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...AS A
SURFACE LOW DIPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THAT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING PRECIP IN MUCH
SOONER ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE GEM AND TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF
/HOPWRF-TS/ ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS....AND BRING IN PRECIP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS AGAIN AN UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE RAIN-SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND FORCING GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN-SNOW COMING TO AN END. WILL LIKELY
SEE FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER HEIGHTS SLAM INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BLASTING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE MARKED BY DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AS H85 TEMPS LOITER AROUND -12C TO -15C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
IFR CIGS LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR OVER THE WEST. MVFR CIGS REMAIN
TO THE EAST IN WEST CENTRAL WI. WEDGE OF SKC IN BETWEEN IS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN WITH MORE STRATOCUMULUS NOW...IN THE
2500-3000K FT LEVEL. THE TREND OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THE
STRATOCU TO THE WEST TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REPLACING THAT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. LOWERING CIGS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE
MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT. TOO LOW OF PROBABILITY TO
INCLUDE IN KAXN FOR NOW. THE MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AS WELL. WILL
KEEP ARE DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY WORK INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT GUSTY
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EVENING AND BECOMING
S/SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING GRADIENT.
KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS 2500-3000FT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS
WESTERN MN MOISTURE MOVES IN. THIS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE -SHRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. NW
WINDS A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AN
BECOMING S-SE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS/-RA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1153 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
NEAR TERM FCST PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA SWEEPING OUT OF CANADIAN AND INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. ALL THIS IN PART TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF SITUATED OVER THE ERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS REVEALING A SFC LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SWD THRUST OF CAA MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. RUC13 SHOWING SFC PRES GRAD REMAINING TIGHT
THE REST OF THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM W-E THIS
AFTN.
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS...GOING MAX/MIN TEMP FCST COMPARED MET/MAV
GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEM REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF CAA TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
U40S/L50S.
ON FRIDAY...WAA REGIME SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SERN STATES. MET HIGHS SEEM TO
COOL GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLY FLOW AND PREFER LEANING TOWARD WARMER
MAV/ECM SOLUTIONS.
FOR SAT...MET/MAV ARE IN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WHEN BULK OF CAA MOVES IN. NUMBERS SEEM REASONABLE THUS SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARE IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED PDS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE PCPN SUN NIGHT/MON WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH. IT SEEMS YESTERDAYS CMC RUN HAD THE RIGHT IDEA LAYING QPF
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AND NOW
WITH BOTH GFS/ECM ARE ADVERTISING THE SAME...HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SMALL POPS.
OTHERWISE....NOTICEABLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON ENVELOPES THE REGION AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 10-20KTS AFTER 12Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
143 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING OHIO LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AT 1000 AM...RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM JHW-ROC WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS. THIS AREA IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE HRRR (AND MOST OTHER
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE)...WHICH IS JUST A HAIR FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. EXPECT THIS SLUG OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND BRING A STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT TO
MOST OF THE CWA. THE ONLY AREAS WHICH MAY MISS OUT ARE FAR NW
PORTIONS...SUCH AS NIAGARA COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE FORCING. QPF SHOULD RUN BETWEEN .50 AND .75 ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED UNDER THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY AREA WHICH HAS A CHANCE TO
WARM IS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE RAIN
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CHILLY
AND RAINY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT WITH A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION PUSHED BACK IN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AN INCREASE INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINED EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREA SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
FURTHERMORE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL AND DIURNAL TIMING WILL
COINCIDE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE BEGIN
WHAT WILL BE A PARADE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A
DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE IN THE MORNING TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL COUPLE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE SUPPORTED BY A PERIOD OF DPVA AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY...ALLOWING PRECIP COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST.
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS INTO
THE REGION WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOLING
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A TREND TOWARDS MAINLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE
1-2 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON THE GRASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT...BUT
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC...GREATLY
DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO END DURING THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A MEAN 320
FLOW DURING THE EVENING FAVORING AREAS FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH JUST A
SPOTTY COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE APPROACHING RIDGE
AXIS AND BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THIS TO END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ASCENT INTO WESTERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY LATER IN THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT FIRST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AROUND THE TIME OF THE
FROPA TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE LAKES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE RAIN INITIALLY WHEN THIS
BEGINS TO OCCUR. COLD ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOWS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO MIX WITH WET SNOW FIRST ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN THEN LATER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS.
A PERIOD OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A DECIDED
TREND TOWARDS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. WHILE THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WIDE RUN TO RUN SWINGS
IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...SUNDAY MORNING A CHILLY WESTERLY FLOW OF
-8C TO -10C AIR AT 850MB WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH A RIDGE NEARBY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS
MAY LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF LAKE SNOW. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BRING INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM
THE CENTRAL LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. LATEST
GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF MAKING A MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
ECMWF APPEARS MUCH TOO FAST AND TOO FAR EAST WITH A MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW RACING ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS AND ALSO THE 12Z
ECMWF...IN MOVING THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OUR PREFERENCE LIES WITH
THE 00Z/06 GFS AND 12Z/05 ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH WITH THE ONGOING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ANY FORECAST OF PLACEMENT OR INTENSITY
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PREMATURE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO
WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AND
INCREASES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING TO LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT ANOTHER AREA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SNOW MIXING IN SPOTS ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE
TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL DRIVE WAVES UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO / LAKE ERIE AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
332 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF APPROACHING AND COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EARLIER CANOPY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED TO A BAND ROUGHLY 50 TO 80 MILES WIDE...WITH
THE CENTER LINE EXTENDING FROM THE VA CAPES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
FAYETTEVILLE AND DARLINGTON TO AUGUSTA. WITH INSOLATION REACHING THE
GROUND HAVING BEEN A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL THAN THOUGHT...AFTN TEMPS
HAVE RESPONDED TO THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ILM SC
COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 76. OF NOTE...A PINNED SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED WITH LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE TEMPORARY BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS TO A S-SSW
DIRECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOWER TEMPS NOW BEING EXHIBITED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WITH BASICALLY CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVING BEEN REACHED...CU
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED
AS WINDS ALOFT DO NOT TAP ANY MAJOR MOISTURE SOURCES...AND ARE
PROGGED TO VEER TO THE WSW-W LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. THUS THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN SCOURING OUT MOISTURE AFTER
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. OVERALL...HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER TO
JUST ISOLATED CHANCE AT BEST...AND MAINLY INLAND. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THE LATEST SREF OUTPUT THAT ILLUSTRATES ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MEASURABLE PCPN OF 0.01 INCHES ACROSS THE FA...THRU THIS
EVENING.
THE FA WILL BE UNDER FULL CAA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE EXCELLENT CAA
AND TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL YIELD A GUSTY NW WIND DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATE THE FA. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...RATHER SHARP TROUGH AND FAIRLY STRONG VORT
CENTER BOTH STREAKING OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A
FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL. AS A WEAK HIGH SLIDES
BY ON SATURDAY THE AFTERNOON MAY END UP A BIT COOLER AS WARM
ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY SHALLOWER MIXING. LATEST GUIDANCE HOWEVER
SUGGESTS SIMILAR HIGHS BOTH DAYS AND SO THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN
MINIMIZED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL START
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE WARMER AIRMASS PAIRED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
INTERESTING AS FOCUS WILL BE TURNED TO TWO SOMEWHAT WEAK SYSTEMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HEALTHY TROUGH AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH FL DIFFERS HOWEVER ACROSS THE MODELS. THE GFS STEERS THE
DISTURBANCE UP ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA COAST AS A COASTAL LOW AND
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS ITS TRACK EAST OFF THE FL COAST. ACROSS OUR AREA...WE WILL SEE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1
INCH AS A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY VARIANCE COULD ADJUST MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC
PLACEMENT...THUS HAVE LEFT IN LOW POPS FOR NOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...EXPECT A CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN
THE MID 40S. INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST STEMMING DOWN FROM A LOW
PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE ROUGHLY AGREES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING IN
BEHIND IT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AGAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL...SO WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF ANY POPS ATTM.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BECOMING WESTERLY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH A SOMEWHAT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WITH LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST AROUND MID MORNING AS SOLAR INSOLATION HELPS THE MIXING
PROCESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. CHANCE
OF RAIN/MVFR ON SUN AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. VFR MON AND
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
TO YIELD SW DIRECTION VEERING TO WSW-W LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS TO FURTHER VEER TO NW AFTER THE CFP THAT
OCCURS DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR TIMING OF THIS CFP AND LEAN TOWARD ITS ASSOCIATED WIND
OUTPUT. THE SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN IN
RESPONSE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT.
WILL BE LOOKING AT 15-20 KT SPEEDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AFTER THE CFP LATE THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR A CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG OVERNIGHT PLUS THE
ADDITION OF A CAA SURGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF 30 KT AT THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES THAT BUILD TO 3 TO 6
FT THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. A FEW 7 FOOTERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS COVERING THE SHALLOW BATHYMETRY OF FRYING PAN
SHOALS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AROUND 5 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AGITATED POST-FRONTAL FLOW TO START THE PERIOD
WILL BE ABATING SO QUICKLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED BEFORE ITS ACTUAL EXPIRATION TIME. NW FLOW QUICKLY SETTING
TO JUST 10 TO 15 KT. AS THE HIGH DRAWS NEARER ON SATURDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A FURTHER DROP IN WIND SPEED AND A SLIGHT VEER IN
DIRECTION. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SEAS DROP
TO JUST 2 FT IN HEIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES WELL EASTWARD FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO AROUND 5 KTS. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT GENERALLY
1 TO 3 FTERS...WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FTERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1144 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DRYING OCCURS LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING IN THE MID LEVELS. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
INTERMITTENT (IF NOT ABSENT) AT KALI AND KCRP AFTER 06/00Z AND
BEFORE 06Z...WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END AT KVCT BY THEN. KLRD A
BIT MORE TRICKY (WITH RESPECT TO RAIN)...AS IMPACTS OF UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH. DECIDED TO GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AT KLRD THROUGH THE
24 HOUR PERIOD...BUT CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THERE
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...AS ISENTROPIC PATTERN GETS
GOING...CIGS COULD LINGER AROUND MVFR/VFR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AT KVCT...AM EXPECTING VFR (MAYBE SHORT-TERM IFR IN RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON) WITH INCREASING CIGS. THE OTHER TWO TERMINALS ARE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM EXPECTING RAIN TO GENERALLY END BY 06/00Z BUT THEN
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST UPPER TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 310K
DEVELOP RAIN COULD RETURN BEFORE 06Z. HOWEVER...WITH UPGLIDE NOT
STRONG AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...AM EXPECTING VFR CIGS AND ONLY
-RA IF NOT SPRINKLES. STILL...DID GO WITH LIGHT RAIN BY 12Z KALI
AND KCRP. LASTLY...WINDS GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DID ADD
SOME WIND GUSTS TONIGHT KCRP SINCE WINDS COMING OFF THE BAY AND
GRADIENT INCREASING. ENOUGH SAID.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL
CONTINUES OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT
DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NORTHWEST WHERE ECHOES
ARE NOT AS STRONG HAVE REPORTING SITES STILL GETTING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. THUS...DID NOT LOWER POPS OUT WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND DID INCREASE THEM OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS
FOR REST OF MORNING AND INTO MID AFTERNOON (KEPT RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME AFTER THAT). DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A NOTCH NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF HIGHS (MAY NOT GET THERE
TIL LATE). REMAINDER OF TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN FIRST AND SECOND
PERIODS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OTHER CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW.
MARINE...SCEC TO NEAR SCA AT TIMES FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATION GRIDS (WHICH ARE LIMITED OFFSHORE AND THUS
ARE USING INTERPOLATION SCHEME) SEEM TO BE TOO HIGH (BASED ON
TCOON SITES). SO...HAVE MAINTAIN OR JUST GONE WITH SCEC FOR THE
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SCA FOR TONIGHT...WILL LOOK AT
NEW DATA AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON THAT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE 12Z TAFS. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 100 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 90 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 100 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 100 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 65 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 72 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MENTION -RA AT KDRT AND KSSF WHERE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY BUT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THESE TWO SITES ARE ALSO JUMPING IN AND
OUT OF HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS TO VFR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR AND RUC OUTPUTS...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ALSO...12Z DRT
SOUNDING SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS DRYING AS WELL AS THE WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESSES TAKE PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL OPEN WAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH AND DRY THINGS OUT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUDS LINGER AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SOILS REMAIN COOL DUE TO RECENT RAINS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TRAVERSES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BACK DOOR DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WON`T LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RAPIDLY
RETURNS BY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. THIS IS THE COOLEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS
SEASON. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WED...THU AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONLY TO
CLIMB TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS AND NEAR 60 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 67 52 69 44 / - 10 10 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 67 49 68 41 / - 10 10 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 67 50 70 43 / 10 20 20 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 66 49 68 40 / - - 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 62 49 72 46 / 40 30 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 66 50 68 41 / - - 10 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 50 61 47 70 41 / 20 30 20 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 67 50 69 42 / 10 10 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 68 51 68 43 / - 10 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 52 65 51 70 44 / 10 30 20 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 65 51 70 45 / 10 30 20 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1007 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL
CONTINUES OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT
DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NORTHWEST WHERE ECHOES
ARE NOT AS STRONG HAVE REPORTING SITES STILL GETTING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. THUS...DID NOT LOWER POPS OUT WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND DID INCREASE THEM OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS
FOR REST OF MORNING AND INTO MID AFTERNOON (KEPT RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME AFTER THAT). DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A NOTCH NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF HIGHS (MAY NOT GET THERE
TIL LATE). REMAINDER OF TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN FIRST AND SECOND
PERIODS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OTHER CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC TO NEAR SCA AT TIMES FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATION GRIDS (WHICH ARE LIMITED OFFSHORE AND THUS
ARE USING INTERPOLATION SCHEME) SEEM TO BE TOO HIGH (BASED ON
TCOON SITES). SO...HAVE MAINTAIN OR JUST GONE WITH SCEC FOR THE
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SCA FOR TONIGHT...WILL LOOK AT
NEW DATA AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON THAT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE 12Z TAFS. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. HOWEVER SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
OBSERVED WITH WATER PONDING ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY AND
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH LOWER THAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT...FINALLY
ENDING RAIN CHCS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S FOR FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW
BEING PROGD TO MV OVHD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGD
TO FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RE-ENFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER CHCS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES...OFFSHORE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MON
AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN
AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 57 65 52 70 / 100 60 50 40 20
VICTORIA 66 52 67 50 69 / 100 20 30 30 10
LAREDO 64 54 62 54 74 / 90 70 60 20 10
ALICE 66 54 62 50 70 / 100 60 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 68 59 68 58 70 / 100 40 50 40 20
COTULLA 65 55 61 50 73 / 70 40 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 67 56 63 51 70 / 100 60 60 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 72 61 67 60 70 / 100 60 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1009 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL
PUSH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NW OREGON AND SW WA THIS MORNING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER...THOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OF WIND AND PRESSURE...LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN AHEAD OF IT AND A SECONDARY CONVECTIVE BAND
OF RAIN AND WINDS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING TO COME ONSHORE
NORTHERN OREGON. ALTHOUGH THE ECM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WINDS WERE NOT AS HIGH ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND
THOUGHT SO HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE
OF RAIN BUT TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE GLOOMY AND WET ACROSS THE BOARD.
BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...IT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS SW WA AND NW OR. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN LAST
EVENING...BUT THE RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE NORTH AT THIS POINT
OVER N WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE DENSEST FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE EXTENT WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FOG IS
PATCHIER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA.
THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 48N 128W IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ONSHORE THIS MORNING...BRINGING A BURST OF STRONG
WINDS AND RAIN. DUE TO THE RELATIVE LACK OF OFFSHORE
OBSERVATIONS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW WELL THE FCST
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE
DOING A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE LOW TRACK. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR S WA COAST THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WINDS COMING THROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 6 AM TO
9 AM. EXPECT THIS WILL BE A LOW END HIGH WIND EVENT...WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AT 55 TO 60 MPH FROM AROUND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT NORTH
ALONG THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE INTERIOR
VALLEY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL...WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH. A
FAIRLY SHORT BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAIN TO START ALONG THE COAST
AROUND 6 AM BEFORE PUSHING INLAND LATER IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE INTO THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THEN FRI
AND SAT LOOK TO BE DRY. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THERE WILL
BE EXTENSIVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR LOWLANDS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW MODELED TO DEVELOP FRI AND SAT MAY HELP TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...SO FRI AND SAT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE FAIRLY NICE
DAYS. PYLE
.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE
BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MODELS ARE TRYING TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE TOP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS HOLDING ON
TO THE RIDGE LONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS...KEEPING ANY PRECIP FURTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS SOME RAIN CLIPPING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE ECMWF DRYING UP THE AREA EVEN
MORE...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL OREGON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...THEN THE 12Z ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAK
SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR PRECIP.
MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE DRIER
NIGHTS...SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS. /27
&&
.AVIATION...PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND HAS NEARLY CROSSED I-5 AT THIS
HOUR WITH CIGS STILL REMAINING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR. A SECONDARY
BAND HAS DEVELOPED AND IS CROSSING THE NORTH OREGON COAST AT THIS
TIME AND HAS DEVELOPED A VERY NARROW BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 34 KT AT KHQM. LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS
INLAND BUT HAVE DOUBTS IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG DUE TO TERRAIN
BREAKING UP THE ORGANIZATION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT FEEL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
WITH CIGS AROUND 025 TO 035. FEEL SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AS WINDS ALSO EASE. THIS WILL ALLOW VARYING AMOUNTS
OF MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HIGH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOG
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KEUG AND KHIO BUT HAVE LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR KPDX KTTD AND KSLE. WINDS GENERALLY STAY LIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL A SLOW LIFTING OF FOG EXPECTED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS BUT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AND
LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LESS OF AN ISSUE. DO
EXPECT SOME SPEED SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ABOUT
A 50/50 SHOT AT SEEING FOG OR AN IFR CIG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING
SO...IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST CLOSE TO 18Z. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...A 995 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE
WATERS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCA
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND SEAS ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT FOR MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE LATEST FCST
MODEL RUNS ARE SPEEDING UP WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT MAY IMPACT THE WATERS BY SUN. /AHROCKSHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
9 AM PST FRIDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
933 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system moves through the region today, resulting
in another round of rain with windy afternoon and evening
conditions. Drier weather returns Friday and Saturday. Sunday
into early Monday the next system passes, bringing another round
of showers. Colder air enters next week, bringing temperatures
back closer to or even a bit below seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Increased pops for the earlier portion of the forecast with a
morning update based on current radar and HRRR prog for the
morning showing. Wind advisory remains in place for this afternoon
for may areas associated with the back edge of a frontal zone
passage./Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A series of frontal zones tied into a larger low
pressure area that moves generally to the northeast will keep the
aviation area cluttered with rain showers of varying light to
moderate intensity for the most part for much of the day. A better
defined cold frontal feature will pass through in the afternoon
and allow for more windy/gusty conditions...wind gusts to 45kts
are possible between 21z-02Z. All frontal features move
east/northeast and away from the aviation area which is followed
by higher pressure moving in very late overnight and early Friday
Morning. That high pressure late overnight and Friday morning allows
for decreased wind and clearer skies. Such a scenario more often
than not allows for late night and morning fog and low clouds to
form in the wettest and more sheltered areas but the late end to
the wind may keep this from occurring. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 58 38 50 34 52 41 / 70 20 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 58 39 49 34 53 40 / 80 60 10 0 0 10
Pullman 62 40 51 34 56 42 / 60 20 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 44 56 36 59 46 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 56 40 52 34 50 39 / 80 40 10 0 0 10
Sandpoint 54 39 50 34 51 37 / 90 70 10 0 0 20
Kellogg 56 40 48 34 51 39 / 70 70 10 0 0 10
Moses Lake 62 39 55 34 54 41 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 60 41 55 40 55 43 / 40 10 0 0 0 10
Omak 55 37 54 34 52 37 / 60 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for Coeur
d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Wind Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
837 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system moves through the region today, resulting
in another round of rain with windy afternoon and evening
conditions. Drier weather returns Friday and Saturday. Sunday
into early Monday the next system passes, bringing another round
of showers. Colder air enters next week, bringing temperatures
back closer to or even a bit below seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Increased pops for the earlier portion of the forecast with a
morning update based on current radar and HRRR prog for the
morning showing. Wind advisory remains in place for this afternoon
for may areas associated with the back edge of a frontal zone
passage./Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A warm front lifts through northern Washington this
morning bringing scattered showers threateneing the KGEG area TAF
sites and KEAT...with MVFR ceilings likely at KEAT through 16Z-
18Z and mainly VFR conditions at all other TAF sites. A cold front
will move through KEAT around 18Z and the eastern TAF sites around
20Z-21Z. Showers with low VFR ceilings are likely along the front
with strong drying behind the front. West to southwest winds will
increase behind the front and become very gusty especially at the
KGEG area TAF sites and KPUW between 21Z and 02Z with local brief
gusts to 45kts possible but more likley 30-35kt gusts prevailing.
Breezy conditions will continue through 12Z Friday and this well
mixed boundary layer should preclude fog formation at any TAF
sites overnight. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 58 38 50 34 52 41 / 70 20 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 58 39 49 34 53 40 / 80 60 10 0 0 10
Pullman 62 40 51 34 56 42 / 60 20 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 44 56 36 59 46 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 56 40 52 34 50 39 / 80 40 10 0 0 10
Sandpoint 54 39 50 34 51 37 / 90 70 10 0 0 20
Kellogg 56 40 48 34 51 39 / 70 70 10 0 0 10
Moses Lake 62 39 55 34 54 41 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 60 41 55 40 55 43 / 40 10 0 0 0 10
Omak 55 37 54 34 52 37 / 60 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for Coeur
d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Wind Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE HEADING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES.
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG OMEGA ABOVE 600 MB...THEY ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB ALONG
INTERSTATE 90. CONSIDERING THE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE 850 MB BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO A HALF INCH/ IN TAYLOR COUNTY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT STARTS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH GENERATES. SOUNDINGS SHOWS
SATURATION ABOVE 750 MB WITH DRY AIR BELOW. DUE TO THIS...IT IS
VERY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER WE WILL GET ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND THEN THIS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A TIGHT
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
THEIR LOCATION OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. WITH THIS LOCATION...THE WEAK TO MODERATE 925 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ITS SNOW TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES. WHILE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...THE ECMWF HAS NOT
BEEN. WHILE IT HAS BEEN SHIFTING THIS BAND NORTH AND SOUTH QUITE
A BIT...IT IS STILL AFFECTING SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
ITS 06.00Z RUN...IT WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT ITS 06.12Z
IS MUCH CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN IS THAT THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA. TOTAL SNOW FROM THE LATEST RUN HAS A 6 TO 9 INCH BAND ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE THE GFS...THE GEM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH IT TRACK NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
/ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94/ AND THAT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION TO
PUT OUT THIS HEADLINE IS NOT. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOMALOUS COLD 850 MB AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -12 AND -16C AND THE GFS IS RUNNING BETWEEN
-10 TO -14C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 6 2014
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT COULD
HANG ON AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SO TRENDED TAFS AS SUCH.
RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS/ALTOCUMULUS FRIDAY
MORNING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH
WINDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING. AREA OF HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING
EAST FROM LWR LAKE MI/NE IL. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGD TO SC WI
BY AROUND 12Z WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME EVOLVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. CLEARING LINE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
WI...WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FILLING IN BEHIND THIS AREA THOUGH
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL APPEARANCE. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SCOURING BETWEEN 07 AND 09Z WHILE PURE EXTRAP OF THE PRIMARY BACK EDGE
SUGGESTS 00-03Z FOR SOME CLEARING. WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN THE WAKE
OF THE MAIN BACK EDGE WILL NOT MODIFY THE EVENTUAL LOW TEMPS
...ESPECIALLY WITH RIDGE AXIS/LIGHT WIND REGIME TAKING SHAPE LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR A TIME THEN
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MINNESOTA TOWARDS END OF DAY. 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND HELP TO INCREASE MID DECK
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO GO WITH SOME POPS IN
PARTS OF THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO WISCONSIN. INITIALLY THE STRONG 250 MB JET IS BEHIND THE
TROUGH BUT GRADUALLY INCREASES UPSTREAM SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION SATURDAY. 850/700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. BY THE TIME LOW LEVEL
COOLING TAKES PLACE THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY AND THE FORCING
WEAKENS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A STRONG 150 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST GET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WEAKENS A LITTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITH WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY.
GRADUAL 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 CELSIUS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN...LOW
LEVELS ARE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY LEVELS
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS HAS SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRY.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS BRING A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY. THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE GFS. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW. THE 12Z ECMWF
PUSHES THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MORE TO THE NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDING TO MORE RAIN FAR SOUTH.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CANADA.
THE 12Z GFS HAS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ON THE 00Z
ECMWF. TEMPERATURES/THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD NORTH
FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES.
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES WITH HIGHER PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING EAST. MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT THOUGH PLENTY OF HOLES
UPSTREAM IN NW WI. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR AND START TO BREAK UP A
BIT TONIGHT AS NVA AND DRIER AIR TAKE HOLD. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO MN BY THE END OF FRIDAY. NAM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WAA REGIME PRECIP. WILL
KEEP KMSN DRY THROUGH 18Z AND KMKE DRY THROUGH 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER
EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF 850 WAA.
&&
.MARINE...GALE GUSTS HAVE EASED BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THOUGH
WAVE ACTION MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER SO EASE SO WENT WITH SMALL CRAFT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ