Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/05/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
155 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING.
* LLWS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
* SHRA LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY PSBL DURING PERIOD OF SHRA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SERN CONUS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A STRENGTHENING SLWY GRADIENT HAS SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME WARMING...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
HAS WEAKENED. INCREASED MIXING IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 25KT LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS LARGER SCALE INVERSION IS STILL IN PLACE AT ARND
5KFT...WHICH IS LIMITING EVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET...BUT
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING BACK LLWS CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH
WHILE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ARND 40-45KT.
THE FETCH OF SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM AN OPENING GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S NOSING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN IOWA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THIS MOISTURE BAND IS EXPECTED TO
MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILE
FORECASTS SUGGEST A SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS AND HAVE LOWERED THE CIG/VIS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS WITH THE
BAND OF PCPN. LINGERING VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT AS WINDS TURN MORE WLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WEAK
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN LLWS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM IN IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF ONSET OF SHRA AND PSBL IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY
AND IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1129 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Area of sprinkles has mostly cleared the far southeast CWA.
Ceilings in this area have been in the 11,000 foot range, so much
of the radar echoes have been virga. Elsewhere, winds already
gusting from 25-30 mph in some locations. Gusty winds will
continue to mix down as a fair amount of sunshine will be
occurring into the afternoon hours.
Updated zones/grids have been sent. While little change in the
daytime forecast was needed, have made some adjustments to the
timing of the rain tonight based on the latest model runs.
Currently is looking like a late evening arrival west of I-55,
while the far southeast may actually stay dry most of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While air mass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface DEWPOINTS only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Gusty SSW winds to 25 knots or so to continue into the early
evening hours. High-res models continue to point to some LLWS
potential this evening and for a few hours past 06Z, ahead of an
area of showers that will precede a cold front. MVFR ceilings
likely to overspread the TAF sites after 06Z as the rain arrives.
The front itself will slowly move across the TAF sites Tuesday
morning, but will likely not reach KCMI until closer to midday. As
such, the rain and lower clouds will continue there most of the
morning, but some gradual improvement is expected further
northwest.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
957 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 15KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT
THRU THE AFTERNOON.
* SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CIGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE
OF 35-45 KT WINDS STILL EXISTS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. GUSTS TO THE
UPPER TEENS ARE OCCASIONALLY SURFACING...BUT EXPECT SW WINDS TO
RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-27 KT OR SO
THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK UP. IF THESE
SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT FOR
NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO
LOW VFR OR MVFR DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW
WINDS...SHIFTING W WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 14-16Z TIME
FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION GIVEN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LESS CONFIDENT THAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THE
TERMINALS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
941 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Area of sprinkles has mostly cleared the far southeast CWA.
Ceilings in this area have been in the 11,000 foot range, so much
of the radar echoes have been virga. Elsewhere, winds already
gusting from 25-30 mph in some locations. Gusty winds will
continue to mix down as a fair amount of sunshine will be
occurring into the afternoon hours.
Updated zones/grids have been sent. While little change in the
daytime forecast was needed, have made some adjustments to the
timing of the rain tonight based on the latest model runs.
Currently is looking like a late evening arrival west of I-55,
while the far southeast may actually stay dry most of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While air mass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface DEWPOINTS only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. High clouds
will move over the sites early this morning, but believe some CU
will develop over the sites later this morning and continue into
the afternoon and evening. Late tonight, the pcpn associated with
the cold front will move into the area and showers will start
around midnight at all sites. Appears there is not enough moisture
to reduce CIGs below VFR and/or to reduce vis below 6sm. So will
be adding showers around midnight at all sites, but not reduce vis
or CIGs at this time. The pcpn looks to continue into the morning
hours at most sites, as well. Winds will be south to southwest
through the period. Was thinking about wind shear this morning,
but current UA sounding, that just started was only showing 40kts
from 700 to over 2KFT. With surface winds around 15mph, will not
have Wind shear this morning. Gusts will increase today and continue
into this evening. Once pcpn begins and winds decrease, believe
wind shear is possible again. Bufkit data supports this as well,
with around 50kts possible near 2KFT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LLWS AT OR AROUND 2KFT AGL WITH SPEEDS NEARING 45-50KT. ANOTHER
ROUND DURING THE EVENING POSSIBLE.
* WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AFT DAYBREAK...INCREASING
WITH SPEEDS ARND 15KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 22-26KT THRU THE AFTERNOON.
* SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE
OF 35-45 KT WINDS STILL EXISTS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. GUSTS TO THE
UPPER TEENS ARE OCCASIONALLY SURFACING...BUT EXPECT SW WINDS TO
RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-27 KT OR SO
THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK UP. IF THESE
SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT FOR
NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO
LOW VFR OR MVFR DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW
WINDS...SHIFTING W WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 14-16Z TIME
FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION GIVEN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LESS CONFIDENT THAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS TIMING/STRENGTH.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER PROBABILITIES AT THE TERMINALS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
513 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While airmass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface dewpoints only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. High clouds
will move over the sites early this morning, but believe some CU
will develop over the sites later this morning and continue into
the afternoon and evening. Late tonight, the pcpn associated with
the cold front will move into the area and showers will start
around midnight at all sites. Appears there is not enough moisture
to reduce cigs below VFR and/or to reduce vis below 6sm. So will
be adding showers around midnight at all sites, but not reduce vis
or cigs at this time. The pcpn looks to continue into the morning
hours at most sites, as well. Winds will be south to southwest
through the period. Was thinking about wind shear this morning,
but current UA sounding, that just started was only showing 40kts
from 700 to over 2kft. With surface winds around 15mph, will not
have Wind shear this morning. Gusts will increase today and continue
into this evening. Once pcpn begins and winds decrease, believe
wind shear is possible again. Bufkit data supports this as well,
with around 50kts possible near 2kft.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LLWS AT OR AROUND 2KFT AGL WITH SPEEDS NEARING 45-50KT. ANOTHER
ROUND DURING THE EVENING POSSIBLE.
* WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AFT DAYBREAK...INCREASING
WITH SPEEDS ARND 15KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 22-26KT THRU THE AFTERNOON.
* SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING
BELOW 5 KFT AND POSSIBLY TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST BEING REPLACED BY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS ARE HOLDING JUST WEST OF SOUTH WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 12-14 KT RANGE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-22
KT. AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE
OF 35-45 KT WINDS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WINDS STILL FORECAST TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE
TONIGHT AND GUSTS WILL NOT ALWAYS BE SURFACING.
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR TODAY AS THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-26
KT OR SO THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK
UP. IF THESE SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS
TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO
5K FT OR LESS DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW WINDS.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS TIMING/STRENGTH.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWER PROBABILITIES AT THE TERMINALS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING. VFR
CONDS DEVELOPING. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDS AND MAINLY DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While airmass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface dewpoints only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Immediate concern for the first part of the TAF period is the low
level wind shear as strong near surface winds around 1000 to
1500ft are around 45 kts out of the south southwest. Soundings
indicate the strong near surface winds will continue until around
15Z for PIA and SPI...16Z for BMI and DEC...and 17Z for CMI.
Breezy south southwest surface winds will continue tonight into
tomorrow as a tight pressure gradient remains in place with the
approaching low pressure system currently over the Central Plains.
Surface winds will gust between 20 to 25 kts by late morning and
continue through the afternoon. A slow moving cold front will
approach the terminals towards the end of the TAF
period...resulting in lowering ceilings for all of the TAF sites
and the chance for light rain over PIA and vicinity showers for
SPI and BMI. Went ahead and kept VFR ceilings for all sites since
soundings and guidance indicated as such.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID
NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT
THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO
CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB
TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A
THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE
MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO
LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER.
FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TIMING OF POPS AS THREE
SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN VARYING DEGREES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION.
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE GFS HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN EAST COAST.
THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO MOVE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
QPF TO THE EAST AS ITS 06Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
PREFER TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS GOING PER THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
THIS AND CONSISTENCY REASONS. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER OF ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER FEATURE
WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS WITH LOW LEVEL MODEL THICKNESSES
PLAYING TUG OF WAR WITH THE LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN ONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY BUT THEN MODELS
COME INTO DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH...THEY ALL BRING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAD MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE DRIER MOISTURE FIELD OF THE ECMWF WAS
LAGGING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE GFS HAS SOME QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND DO
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL THE MODELS COME
TOGETHER MORE.
WITH MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONLY BRIEF BREAKS...WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S PER REGIONAL
BLEND LOOK GOOD. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...SHOULD NOT SEE A
HUGE DROP IN NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY LOWS IN THE 30S A
GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT LAF AND LATER AT
THE OTHER TAF SITES. THEN...CU WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAF COULD SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AT
THAT POINT AS RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 09Z THERE. OTHERWISE...THE AC DECK
WILL BE MOVING OUT NEAR ISSUANCE TIME LEAVING BEHIND A VEIL OF
CIRRUS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO 7 KNOTS OR MORE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID
NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT
THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO
CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB
TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A
THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE
MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO
LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER.
FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL START OUT IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS WAVE...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES MIXED IN. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT LAF AND LATER AT
THE OTHER TAF SITES. THEN...CU WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAF COULD SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AT
THAT POINT AS RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 09Z THERE. OTHERWISE...THE AC DECK
WILL BE MOVING OUT NEAR ISSUANCE TIME LEAVING BEHIND A VEIL OF
CIRRUS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO 7 KNOTS OR MORE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID
NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT
THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO
CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB
TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A
THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE
MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO
LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER.
FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL START OUT IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS WAVE...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES MIXED IN. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MOVED UP GUSTS AND INCREASED THEM TO 22 KNOTS PER LATEST
OBSERVATION. ALSO...KEPT AC AROUND A LITTLE LONGER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT AS LOW PRESSURE
ENTERS THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOME TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...SO INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH
AT KIND AND KLAF AFTER TUE 09Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BY THE END OF
TAF PERIOD AS WELL...BUT WILL STILL BE AT VFR LEVEL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 11 TO 13 KTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN SFC SYSTEM JUST SW OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
FORCING BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH THETAE ADVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KS HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER EASTERN KS. BOTH MESO SCALE
MODELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE HAVE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SHIFTING EAST OVER OUR AREA
WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BOTH EXPANDING THE SHOWERS WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN MOVING OUT THE SHOWERS BY 07Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH
HAVE BEEN DRY MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SATURATED BY 00Z AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z
WEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 06-07Z
OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
THROUGH 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR BY MORNING. MIXING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP MINS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BEYOND THE MID 30S OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...MINS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO FLUCTUATE ON STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ONLY CERTAINTY IS TIMING AND SOME OF THE THERMAL TRENDS AS ALL
MODELS SHOWING SUBSEQUENT PUSHES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST COMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE END AND JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...SO STILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LIKELIES GOING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS THEN BRIEFLY PUSH BACK INTO THE CWA WITH BRIEF RIDGING
ALOFT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONGER WAVE THEN DIGGING INTO THE REGION FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS AGAIN REVERTING BACK TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS KIND OF
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...VERSUS THE DEEP TROUGH FROM
RUNS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUIDANCE CHANCE POPS
DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT/STRENGTH. DECENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO AGAIN COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALSO FALLING TEMPS LOOK
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...FOR NOW HAVE JUST STUCK WITH ONLY SMALL DIURNAL RISES AT
THIS TIME.
MAIN DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS THE EC DIGS ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
US AS THE WAVE REMAINS WEAKER AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SAME PATH AS
THE OTHER IMPACTING MORE OF THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOVE
VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -10C OR COLDER BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR AT LEAST A MAJOR
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE...AND IF THE EC IS CORRECT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...BUT ENDING SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. AS MAIN
WAVE APPROACHES...SHOWERS INCREASE AND CIGS BEGIN TO DROP BY
22-03Z OVER THE AREA. BROUGHT -SHRA INTO AREA AS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LOOKS MORE CERTAIN THAN EARLIER PACKAGE. TIMING OF WAVE
EXPECTED TO TAKE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY 05-08Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. WINDS MIX
AGAIN AFT 14-15Z TUE WITH GUSTS 15 KTS FROM WEST MOST AREAS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1147 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT
ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER
NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING
TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER
LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH CLOUDY SKIES AOA050. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 34 58 36 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 70 33 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 67 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 72 33 59 34 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 70 34 59 36 / 30 10 0 0
P28 67 41 59 36 / 60 60 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
635 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...AVIATION SECTION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT
ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER
NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING
TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER
LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
SPRINKLES AND THETA-E ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AND LIKELY BECOME REDUCED IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH HOWEVER, STAYING IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT LASTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 34 58 36 / 30 20 0 0
GCK 69 33 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 67 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 71 33 59 34 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 70 34 59 36 / 30 20 0 0
P28 67 41 59 36 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT
ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER
NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING
TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER
LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS
EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED
ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB
LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING
THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 34 58 36 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 65 32 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 64 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 69 33 59 34 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 67 34 59 36 / 20 20 0 0
P28 67 41 59 36 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING, MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT DEVELOPING AS AN INTENSIFYING +130KT JET LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING
CYCLING SHORTWAVES TO HELP USHER A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY AS A
RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5C. ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIALLY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN COME
ABOUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER EVEN COLDER AIR DOWN INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS
EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED
ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB
LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING
THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 34 58 36 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 65 32 58 34 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 64 33 57 35 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 69 33 58 34 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 67 34 58 37 / 20 20 0 0
P28 67 41 59 37 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING ZONES AND GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR RECEIVING SOME STRONGER
RETURNS WITH A REPORT OF SPRINKLES OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.
THE HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES SOME RETURNS OVER THE FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST THAN YESTERDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT PLUS THERE IS A RATHER
STRONG LEE/PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THIS
DOES MAKE SENSE.
STEADY AND GUSTY WINDS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THICKER
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RATHER
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. RAISED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS A RESULT.
VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT LOOKS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY NOON OR SO.
THEN NOT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO
HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER PLUS SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING. COOLEST MAXES LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF.
CONSIDERED HAVING FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IF
FRONT SLOWS DOWN EVEN MORE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...THEN THAT
TEMPERATURE TREND WILL NOT HAPPEN.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AS A
RESULT OF LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON LOW THETA-E LAPSE RATES. PROBLEM IS THAT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BELIEVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH VERY FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND ACCOMPANYING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. HOWEVER...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES DID INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE WHAT CAPE THERE IS WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEARLY DONE BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS MONDAY NIGHT LEADS
TO A SUNNY SKY TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
WHERE BETTER 850-500MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST. RIGHT NOW DONT THINK
ENOUGH FORCING AND LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. 100+ KT 250 JET NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY PUSHING THIS DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. GENERALLY CLEAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TO MID 30S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. ON WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO...LOW
TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY THEN CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA. UPPER HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA WITH RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 3C EAST TO 11C WEST
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
30-35...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS. BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS ABOUT 3F COLDER THEN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECTING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE
AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM AT BEST
RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...HOPEFULLY DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT ON LATER
SHIFTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 7C FROM THURSDAYS FORECAST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO 70F. NUDGED READINGS UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM EXTENDED PROCEDURE AS A RESULT. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRIDAYS WEATHER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING LEAVING A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS COME DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BY DARK. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10F COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS A BIT FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. 850-500MB LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...MAYBE A BIT MORE IF THE GFS 850MB TEMPS
VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME STRATUS (MVFR) FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES. CLEARING OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS
DECREASE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
AT 00Z MONDAY A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A -23C COOL POOL LOCATED OVER UTAH. A +90
KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM THE BASED OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
APPEARING TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AT THE
700MB LEVEL A SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
850MB WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS WERE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS AND +7 TO +10C DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TWEAKED POPS AND WX GRIDS BASED OFF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR
AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON A WEAKENING
TREND AS DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY DECREASES. BOTH MENTIONED
MODELS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULDN`T PROGRESS THAT MUCH MORE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THEN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
EAST OF HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL ON MONDAY AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT. FORECAST CAPE FIELDS HAVE MINIMAL CAPE AROUND 500
J/KG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD
HAVE SOME MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS STAYING IN THE
15 TO 22 MPH, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND AROUND 50 DEGREES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AFTER 7 PM FAR WEST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THEN TOWARDS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND RUN
FROM NEAR HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND ELKHART BY 7 PM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR LIKELY FROM SAINT JOHN TO COLDWATER AND EAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SKIES CLEARING. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING, MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT DEVELOPING AS AN INTENSIFYING +130KT JET LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING
CYCLING SHORTWAVES TO HELP USHER A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY AS A
RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5C. ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIALLY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN COME
ABOUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER EVEN COLDER AIR DOWN INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS
EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED
ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB
LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING
THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 68 36 58 / 20 30 30 0
GCK 50 66 33 58 / 50 20 10 0
EHA 50 65 35 57 / 50 10 10 0
LBL 51 69 36 58 / 40 20 10 0
HYS 52 66 35 58 / 10 30 20 0
P28 53 67 40 59 / 10 60 70 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
101 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MADE THE
DECISION TO GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE SOME VALLEYS WERE LOWERED 4 TO 5
DEGREES DEPENDING ON THEIR CURRENT TEMP...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CWA WERE LOWERED AN AVERAGE OF TWO DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CURRENT
LOWS. AFTER RERUNNING THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT...ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TEMP LOWERING TRENDS WERE STILL WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL END UP
BOTTOMING OUT LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED
IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEED TO BE MADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEW POINTS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP FROM VERY CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE OF 50 DEGREE READINGS NOTED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL HAVE A MODERATE RIDGE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AS ANY ENERGY AT THE MID LEVELS STAY
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING AS
COLD OR A TOUCH COLDER MONDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM CONCLUDED
FOR THIS YEAR EARLIER TODAY. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS
THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AGAIN GOOD CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND A MILDER
STARTING POINT FOR THE NIGHTLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. ALSO USED THE MAX AND MIN GRIDS FROM THIS BLENDED MODEL
AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME MAJOR ELEVATIONALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS
EACH NIGHT OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SETUP FOR FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OUT OF
THE UPPER PLAINS. AS WELL AT THIS TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG A
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM TRACKS EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE FIRST WAVES TRACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS TRY TO FORM A COASTAL LOW WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTH SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW BOTH
MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WAVE TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UP
AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS THE SUPER
BLEND MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON POPS TO START THE EVENT ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AGAIN FOR WED AND THU.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVING STRONGER WAVE AFTERWARD PUTS NEEDED
FORCING IN QUESTION. THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE NEXT
STRONGER WAVE DIVES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS TRACKS A DEVELOPED
SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHEREAS THE EURO IS MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH A COASTAL LOW RACKING NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY FOR POPS...DID STICK WITH THE
SUPER BLEND MODEL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT AVERAGE
OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE CIGS AROUND 11K AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS TO
GENERAL AVIATORS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
852 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SUNSHINE WE/LL SEE WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS A QUITTING HITTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
I DID A QUICK EVENING UPDATE TO BETTER CAPTURE THE CLEARING TREND
IN THE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUR
FORECAST AREA AS OF 845 PM THIS EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE 1000 TO 3000
FT LAYER SO THAT WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE FROM FALLING NEAR A
MUCH AS IT OTHERWISE WOULD GIVEN DEW POINTS FALLING TO NEAR
FREEZING. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT WE/LL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS AND
SHOWS UP ON WV IMAGERY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...IT/LL DEEPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE/LL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN CWA WHERE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE LOWEST THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH SNOW. WE/LL SEE
MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE ELEVATION IS A BIT
HIGHER AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM AIR BELOW 900 MB FOR THE PCPN TO BE MIXED
RAIN/SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE PRIMARY FOCUS/CONCERN IS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A TURN TOWARD MUCH BELOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND VETERANS DAY WHICH WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
RISK OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH POTENTIAL TRAVEL
IMPACTS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS POTENTIAL COLD BLAST MAY BE PRECEDED BY A SYNOPTIC RAIN/SNOW
EVENT ON TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECENT WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH... TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE GFS HAS NOT EVEN
SHOWN IT. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE A STRONG SFC LOW THEN WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW NEARBY... FOLLOWED BY
STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST RELATED TO SHORTWAVES AND SFC COLD
FRONTS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND SFC TEMPS
LOOK TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF U.S. 10.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE BIG ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF 05/00Z. THE HRRR/RAP AND NAM ARE ALL VERY
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BY 03Z IF THOSE
MODELS ARE CORRECT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE SOLID VFR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE 85 PCT RH IN THE 925 TO 850 LAYER ON THE RAP MODEL
HAS BEEN TRACKING BEST FROM 18Z THROUGH 23Z ON WHERE THE CLEARING
SHOULD BE. I USED THAT AS MY GUIDE BUT ADDED ABOUT TWO HOURS TO
THAT AS A BUFFER. I WOULD THINK WITH ALL THE DRY AIR AT LOW TO MID
LEVELS WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WE SHOULD SEE THE CLEARING.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... WEST WINDS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS IN THE 2000 TO 3000 FT ALG LAYER WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT. I ALLOWED THE WINDS IN THE
TAFS TO DROP OFF AS THEY TYPICALLY DO AT NIGHT BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. WINDS REMAIN STRONG TILL AROUND 09Z THAN START TO
LET UP.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE/LL LIKELY NEED A
GALE WARNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUITE
A BIT AS THE SFC LOW PASSES THROUGH THE CWA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY TOO. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE
CWA THURSDAY AND WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. QPF ISN/T
HIGH ENOUGH HOWEVER TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
701 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS HELPED DROP CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT KIWD. EXPECT THE PCPN AN LOWER CIGS TO ALSO SPREAD
TO KCMX THIS EVENING AIDED BY WRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO THE PCPN. HOWEVER...MORE DOWNSLOPE WRLY FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY KEEP
CIGS FROM DROPPING BELOW VFR. IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...CIGS
SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR. GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AT KCMX THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING AS MUCH COLDER
AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR NW GALES OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALE LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
637 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SUNSHINE WE/LL SEE WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS A QUITTING HITTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT WE/LL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS AND
SHOWS UP ON WV IMAGERY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...IT/LL DEEPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE/LL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN CWA WHERE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE LOWEST THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH SNOW. WE/LL SEE
MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE ELEVATION IS A BIT
HIGHER AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM AIR BELOW 900 MB FOR THE PCPN TO BE MIXED
RAIN/SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE PRIMARY FOCUS/CONCERN IS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A TURN TOWARD MUCH BELOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND VETERANS DAY WHICH WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
RISK OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH POTENTIAL TRAVEL
IMPACTS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS POTENTIAL COLD BLAST MAY BE PRECEDED BY A SYNOPTIC RAIN/SNOW
EVENT ON TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECENT WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH... TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE GFS HAS NOT EVEN
SHOWN IT. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE A STRONG SFC LOW THEN WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW NEARBY... FOLLOWED BY
STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST RELATED TO SHORTWAVES AND SFC COLD
FRONTS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND SFC TEMPS
LOOK TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF U.S. 10.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE BIG ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF 05/00Z. THE HRRR/RAP AND NAM ARE ALL VERY
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BY 03Z IF THOSE
MODELS ARE CORRECT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE SOLID VFR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE 85 PCT RH IN THE 925 TO 850 LAYER ON THE RAP MODEL
HAS BEEN TRACKING BEST FROM 18Z THROUGH 23Z ON WHERE THE CLEARING
SHOULD BE. I USED THAT AS MY GUIDE BUT ADDED ABOUT TWO HOURS TO
THAT AS A BUFFER. I WOULD THINK WITH ALL THE DRY AIR AT LOW TO MID
LEVELS WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WE SHOULD SEE THE CLEARING.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... WEST WINDS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS IN THE 2000 TO 3000 FT ALG LAYER WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT. I ALLOWED THE WINDS IN THE
TAFS TO DROP OFF AS THEY TYPICALLY DO AT NIGHT BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. WINDS REMAIN STRONG TILL AROUND 09Z THAN START TO
LET UP.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE/LL LIKELY NEED A
GALE WARNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUITE
A BIT AS THE SFC LOW PASSES THROUGH THE CWA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY TOO. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE
CWA THURSDAY AND WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. QPF ISN/T
HIGH ENOUGH HOWEVER TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE
WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH)
AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z
MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD
ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT
COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70
PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL
THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE
WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH)
AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z
MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD
ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT
COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70
PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL
THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1251 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO
START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS.
STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR
30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO
-3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS
OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E.
ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA
AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE
TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN
BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE
TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A
LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE
6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION
OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN
THE HWO.
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC
LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS
BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL
THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE
MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO
START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS.
STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR
30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO
-3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS
OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E.
ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA
AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE
TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN
BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE
TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A
LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE
6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION
OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN
THE HWO.
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC
LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS
BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TODAY AS DRY AIR
LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS MOVES E...REACHING WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW
-SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL THEN
INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR DURING THE
EVENING AND THEN TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO
START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS.
STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR
30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO
-3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS
OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E.
ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA
AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE
TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN
BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE
TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A
LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE
6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION
OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN
THE HWO.
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC
LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS
BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
EVENING AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WAA
AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE INFLOW INCREASES THIS EVENING...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Today - Tonight:
Main challenges during this period will center on precipitation
timing and amounts and effects of clouds/rain on temperatures.
Satellite imagery shows a triple vorticity structure within an
elongated positively tilted upper trough stretching from south
central Canada through the Desert Southwest. While all of the
individual vorticity maxima will miss the CWA the strengthening
southwesterly jet aloft, emanating from the base of the upper
trough, will enhance the lift resulting in increasing shower
coverage across the Central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Initially, the
showers will be rather spotty due to the limited low-level moisture
return. HRRR qpf trend best supports the NAM and LSX WRF output with
widely scattered showers through this afternoon. However, expect the
showers to become rather numerous as the left front quad of the
approaching jet max noses into the region. Operational models in
general agreement on this evolution although the GFS and ECMWF have
been a bit more north and west with the precipitation. Have
generally leaned more on the NAM and LSX WRF which highly favor best
rain chances south of the MO River and geared more towards this
evening.
Can`t rule out a few random rumbles of thunder late this afternoon
and evening but instability, both elevated and surface base
instability remain puny as noted in individual soundings. The
elevated mixed layer will be the primary deterrent. Winds will
remain strong and gusty until cold frontal passage later this
evening although as clouds thicken late this afternoon the deeper
mixing will cease so winds should weaken some.
Tuesday - Thursday:
Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster with below average
readings on Tuesday and Thursday with dry conditions for the most
part. Weak Pacific high pressure will press eastward with the
passage of Monday night`s cold front. While cold air advection will
be muted the CWA will likely have to contend with a considerable
amount of high level cloud cover streaming northeastward from the
baggy southern end of the upper trough.
By Wednesday northwest flow aloft will move into the region with a
clipper type system diving southeast with a rapidly developing
surface low tracking north of the CWA. Most of the precipitation
will remain north of the CWA. However, some light showers or
sprinkles could affect the northeast quarter of the CWA Wednesday
night. Backing surface winds on Wednesday should allow temperatures
to rebound to normal or slightly warmer.
Thursday is looking quite cool with increasing northwest winds
allowing for strong cold air advection. Medium range models have
been trending colder last couple of runs and won`t be surprised if
future forecasts need to further lower high temperatures. Will also
probably see sub-freezing lows Friday morning.
Friday - Sunday:
Below average temperatures will likely continue as northwest flow
aloft brings another fast moving upper system southeast Friday night
and Saturday with another surge of cold air advection. Like
Wednesday`s clipper system expect to see a good deal of cloud cover
and scattered very light showers and/or sprinkles finding their way
into northern parts of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Mid lvl clouds around 10-12kft will be the rule through the afternoon
hours before bkn-ovc clouds btn 3-4kft moves into the terminals this
evening. Expect lgt shra to overspread the terminals btn 01Z-02Z out
ahead of an approaching cold front. Vis restrictions are not expected
with -shra however cigs may drop into MVFR cat. FROPA will veer SSW
winds around to the NW around 10kts btn 06Z-07Z. Expect cigs to
quickly lift back to VFR conds behind the front around 09Z. VFR conds
will then cont thru the duration of the TAF pd.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Today - Tonight:
Main challenges during this period will center on precipitation
timing and amounts and effects of clouds/rain on temperatures.
Satellite imagery shows a triple vorticity structure within an
elongated positively tilted upper trough stretching from south
central Canada through the Desert Southwest. While all of the
individual vorticity maxima will miss the CWA the strengthening
southwesterly jet aloft, emanating from the base of the upper
trough, will enhance the lift resulting in increasing shower
coverage across the Central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Initially, the
showers will be rather spotty due to the limited low-level moisture
return. HRRR qpf trend best supports the NAM and LSX WRF output with
widely scattered showers through this afternoon. However, expect the
showers to become rather numerous as the left front quad of the
approaching jet max noses into the region. Operational models in
general agreement on this evolution although the GFS and ECMWF have
been a bit more north and west with the precipitation. Have
generally leaned more on the NAM and LSX WRF which highly favor best
rain chances south of the MO River and geared more towards this
evening.
Can`t rule out a few random rumbles of thunder late this afternoon
and evening but instability, both elevated and surface base
instability remain puny as noted in individual soundings. The
elevated mixed layer will be the primary deterrent. Winds will
remain strong and gusty until cold frontal passage later this
evening although as clouds thicken late this afternoon the deeper
mixing will cease so winds should weaken some.
Tuesday - Thursday:
Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster with below average
readings on Tuesday and Thursday with dry conditions for the most
part. Weak Pacific high pressure will press eastward with the
passage of Monday night`s cold front. While cold air advection will
be muted the CWA will likely have to contend with a considerable
amount of high level cloud cover streaming northeastward from the
baggy southern end of the upper trough.
By Wednesday northwest flow aloft will move into the region with a
clipper type system diving southeast with a rapidly developing
surface low tracking north of the CWA. Most of the precipitation
will remain north of the CWA. However, some light showers or
sprinkles could affect the northeast quarter of the CWA Wednesday
night. Backing surface winds on Wednesday should allow temperatures
to rebound to normal or slightly warmer.
Thursday is looking quite cool with increasing northwest winds
allowing for strong cold air advection. Medium range models have
been trending colder last couple of runs and won`t be surprised if
future forecasts need to further lower high temperatures. Will also
probably see sub-freezing lows Friday morning.
Friday - Sunday:
Below average temperatures will likely continue as northwest flow
aloft brings another fast moving upper system southeast Friday night
and Saturday with another surge of cold air advection. Like
Wednesday`s clipper system expect to see a good deal of cloud cover
and scattered very light showers and/or sprinkles finding their way
into northern parts of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the overnight hours.
Strong and gusty southerly winds will persist through the night also, and
eventually transport enough moisture into the region to push CIGs
lower as showers begin to develop. Lower clouds and scattered
showers will likely begin moving in and developing by the late
morning hours, with widespread showers developing during the mid-
afternoon hours. Confidence in lowering CIGs or restricting visibility
is rather low this far out, so have kept conditions in the MVFR range
for now. Otherwise, expect the strong and gusty wind to prevail
through the this TAF cycle until the weak front moves through late
Monday night, likely only effecting the KSTJ terminal before the end
of this TAF cycle.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
CLOUDY AND MILD THE REST OF THE NIGHT. REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE
SHORT-TERM. RADAR RETURNS ARE ALL FROM MID-LVLS CIGS. SO "IF"
ANYTHING IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IT`S SPRINKLES. REFLECTIVITY
HAS ALSO BEEN DIMINISHING AS RETURNS MOVE INTO DRY AIR. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT MAY BACK DOWN FCST WORDING FROM SHWRS
TO SPRINKLES BEFORE SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 7
DEGREES. SOUTH BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL
AS SOME FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS TO HELP TEMPERATURES STAY UP. WENT
CLOSER TO HRRR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
QUIET...BUT BREEZY...CONDITIONS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE...WITH THE MAIN AXIS SLIDING FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW. A
TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST/GULF REGIONS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN THOSE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. NO NOTABLE SURPRISES
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOOKING TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAIN STORY LIES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTED A
LOT GOING ON THIS EVENING...BUT ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A HEFTY LLJ DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 50+ KTS POSSIBLE. INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS JET WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...KEPT POPS LOW AS MODELS ARENT IN
THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF PLACEMENT...AND DID INCREASE
THEIR COVERAGE TO THE W/NWRN CWA WHERE MODELS SHOWING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AS WE GET INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...THE LLJ TAPERS OFF...WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TAKING OVER THE MAIN DRIVER OF LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN POPS ESP DURING THE MORNING IS NOT THE
GREATEST...AS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE...BUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE MAIN
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH BY MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY
LOCATED IN A NE TO SW ORIENTATION RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA...THEN CONTINUING ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS IN THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT...BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE. DECIDED
TO HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. AGAIN CONFIDENCE ISNT THE
HIGHEST...AND NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS BECAUSE
INSTABILITY...BUT MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF PERHAPS A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...SO COULD GET A FEW SCATTERED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER/LIGHTNING STRIKES.
DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE FOR TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AND HAVE A BLEND OF MODELS/GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID 60S IN
THE SE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AS
THE RESPONSIBLE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THEN LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...FOCUSING SUBSEQUENT
DISTURBANCES TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY MILD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...COULD SEE SOME COOLER AIR WORK
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS COOLER AIR IS FORCED SOUTH WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO OUR EAST. HENCE...WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...TEMPERATURES
ARE A BIT IN QUESTION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN COOLER AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...WHILE TEMPERATURES
MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE GENERALLY MILD FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. OTHER THAN THE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DESCENDING TO AROUND 10K FT. A COUPLE SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. LLWS IS
IN PROGRESS AND WILL CONT THRU 08Z. S WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
MON: VFR MID-LVL CIGS TO START...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO INVADE. NOT ALL GUIDANCE HAS IT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
DRY IN THE LOW-LVLS. THE CLOSEST MVFR CIGS ARE OVER W TX. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS EAR/GRI IN
THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME WITH A WSHFT TO NW. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST UP TO 24 KTS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHWRS INCREASES AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: LOW
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MVFR CIGS AND TIMING OF SHWRS.
MON EVE: ANY SHWRS EXIT 02Z-03Z WITH RETURN TO VFR. NW WINDS
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES
SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY
HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT
POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY
BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN.
THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF
GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO
UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP
QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK
THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO
DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER
NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT
MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE
REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF
THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH
TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT
OR GREATER.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROF TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT 12 HRS. BEST
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF A KTCS TO KTCC
LINE. LOCAL IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS AREA WITH MT OBSCURATIONS TO
PERSIST. COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT DOWN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFT 00Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST WIND INTO THE RGV AFT 03Z. AN AREA OF MT TOP TO MID LIVEL
CLOUDINESS COULD DEVELOP 03Z-08Z OVER CENTRAL NM AS WELL BUT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 04/18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 26 53 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 21 54 18 60 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 24 52 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 54 18 62 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 22 51 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 22 53 17 59 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 24 52 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 28 63 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 50 18 57 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 50 28 56 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 27 48 27 57 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 50 16 57 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 17 41 13 49 / 20 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 47 9 55 / 20 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 51 18 57 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 24 47 22 58 / 20 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 29 55 22 63 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 49 29 57 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 52 29 60 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 53 32 61 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 55 36 63 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 57 27 65 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 57 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 30 57 30 64 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 56 32 64 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 34 59 33 66 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 51 29 58 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 32 52 31 60 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 54 24 62 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 47 28 60 / 10 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 51 30 59 / 20 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 36 54 31 62 / 40 20 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 50 28 60 / 50 30 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 51 23 58 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 52 25 62 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 26 53 24 63 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 24 48 25 61 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 30 54 35 65 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 52 31 64 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 57 32 68 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 35 53 32 66 / 10 10 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 57 30 69 / 20 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 37 50 34 65 / 60 40 20 5
PORTALES........................ 39 50 33 65 / 60 40 30 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 54 32 66 / 40 30 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 47 57 34 65 / 60 40 30 5
PICACHO......................... 39 50 32 62 / 60 40 20 5
ELK............................. 36 48 32 58 / 60 40 20 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ519-520-532-533.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO IFR RANGES BEFORE
SUNRISE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND BEFORE 031200 IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER
MONDAY...MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/
UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT MAY BE AFTER 12Z BEFORE SHOWERS FINALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH RAP AND HRRR DO HINT AT SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IN THE 5Z-10Z TIME FRAME. EITHER WAY... SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/
AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO IFR RANGES BEFORE
SUNRISE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND BEFORE 031800 IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY...MOVING
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO NWRN
PARTS OF THE FA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 69 51 60 / 10 50 90 50
HOBART OK 53 69 49 60 / 10 60 80 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 72 56 61 / 10 40 80 70
GAGE OK 52 70 40 60 / 20 60 70 10
PONCA CITY OK 51 68 48 59 / 10 60 90 20
DURANT OK 48 72 59 64 / 0 20 70 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE MOUNTAIN PEEKS AOA 6000 FEET ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND AOA 6500 FT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
18Z NAM INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES STARTING
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ALONG
THE CASCADES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE
RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED TERRAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN..AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
AS THIS WESTERLY WIND SETS UP...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE
HELD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT
MOVING OVER THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVELS AS WELL AS
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BIEDA
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT/SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE MORNING WILL SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH THE FRONT
AND DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN 5-8 10 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE RIDGE
THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. COONFIELD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS 500MB HEIGHTS AVERAGE
576DM OVER THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED AND
A POSSIBLE COLD POOL/INVERSION FORMING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF ALLOWING
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...DECIDED TO
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 03/12Z ECMWF WHICH WOULD BRING A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY INTO NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND IDAHO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...STRONGER
WINDS AND A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO MONDAY. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +10C ON SUNDAY TO +2C BY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO ALSO FALL TO 6000
- 7000 FEET. MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO
MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH GENERALLY DRIER
AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE BASIN FOG EVENTS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG SEASON. MURPHY
&&
.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY 0-14Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER 5-8
KFT OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KDLS 9-13Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS UNTIL 15Z THEN
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL. 76
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 48 63 48 64 / 70 70 10 10
ALW 50 63 49 64 / 70 70 10 20
PSC 50 65 49 62 / 80 50 10 10
YKM 45 60 44 57 / 80 40 10 20
HRI 49 65 49 64 / 70 60 10 10
ELN 44 58 42 55 / 90 50 10 20
RDM 42 59 41 65 / 70 40 20 10
LGD 41 53 42 59 / 80 80 20 10
GCD 41 54 41 61 / 70 80 20 10
DLS 50 62 50 64 / 80 60 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
98/76/77/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
206 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE MOUNTAIN PEEKS AOA 6000 FEET ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND AOA 6500 FT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
18Z NAM INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES STARTING
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ALONG
THE CASCADES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE
RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED TERRAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN..AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
AS THIS WESTERLY WIND SETS UP...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE
HELD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT
MOVING OVER THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVELS AS WELL AS
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BIEDA
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT/SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE MORNING WILL SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH THE FRONT
AND DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN 5-8 10 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE RIDGE
THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. COONFIELD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS 500MB HEIGHTS AVERAGE
576DM OVER THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED AND
A POSSIBLE COLD POOL/INVERSION FORMING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF ALLOWING
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...DECIDED TO
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 03/12Z ECMWF WHICH WOULD BRING A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY INTO NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND IDAHO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...STRONGER
WINDS AND A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO MONDAY. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +10C ON SUNDAY TO +2C BY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO ALSO FALL TO 6000
- 7000 FEET. MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO
MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH GENERALLY DRIER
AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE BASIN FOG EVENTS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG SEASON. MURPHY
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. SPOTTY RAIN WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 4-10KFT OVER THE NEXT
8 HOURS...LOWERING 3-6KFT OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 KTS UNTIL 15Z THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 76
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 48 63 48 64 / 70 70 10 10
ALW 50 63 49 64 / 70 70 10 20
PSC 50 65 49 62 / 80 50 10 10
YKM 45 60 44 57 / 80 40 10 20
HRI 49 65 49 64 / 70 60 10 10
ELN 44 58 42 55 / 90 50 10 20
RDM 42 59 41 65 / 70 40 20 10
LGD 41 53 42 59 / 80 80 20 10
GCD 41 54 41 61 / 70 80 20 10
DLS 50 62 50 64 / 80 60 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
98/76/77/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
407 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW
A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWRN
CANADA...WHICH WAS SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TNGT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT TNGT THERE WILL ONLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NWRN SD INTO THE BLKHLS AND EXTREME NERN WY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WINDS OF 35-45 KT...RESULTING IN WIND ADVY CRITERIA
ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN SD PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECENT LACK OF
PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DUST
POLLUTION ALERT FOR WEST RAPID CITY. THE MAIN SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES WILL BE ACROSS ND...AND THE TIMING OF THE MAXIMUM BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND
WRNG CRITERIA WINDS TO BE ACHIEVED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SUNDAY
LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE NICE WITH
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA WITH SUBSEQUENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN...BUT
THEN WARMUP APPEARS AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF
RUNS INSIST ON MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK AND SOME GROUND-WHITENING SNOW
FOR MONDAY. 12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR OR
SNOW...SHUNTING CORE OF COLD AIR EAST OF CWA WITH UPPER TROUGH MUCH
FURTHER EAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COLDER THAN OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT
WARMER THAN ECMWF. THICKNESS DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY FOR CONTRASTING
RUNS ABOUT 250M. HAVE FOLLOWED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW UP IN LATER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ TO 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ043-046-047-049.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ013-014-025-
026-031-032-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
401 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN
UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS
WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND.
PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND
WEBCAMS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST
AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN
CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA.
ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET
COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED
MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND
THURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND
BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
LINGERING MVFR CIGS DUE TO -SHRA WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN
UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS
WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND.
PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND
WEBCAMS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST
AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN
CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA.
ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET
COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED
MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND
THURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND
BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
BAND OF RAIN SHWRS LINGERING OVER SCNTRL SD WL CONT TO MOV
EASTWARD THIS AFTN. MID LVL CIGS WL CONTINUE ACRS MUCH OF WRN SD
THIS AFTN...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS W/ THE PRECIP. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25 KT W/ GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS PLAINS WL DCRS BY EARLY
EVEN...SHIFTING TO THE SW IN NERN WY OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLR SKIES
AND LGT WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TUES MRNG.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1017 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SWRN SD AND
ALSO TO ADD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z KUNR
SOUNDING...SUGGESTED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FROM ASCENT TO
REACH THE WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE HIGHER-ELEVATION AREAS
THAT ARE SEEING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT-
TERM PROGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE UPPER ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. A 80-90KT JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SW-NE. THE SFC CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN INTO NERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BUT RELATIVELY STRONG AREA OF
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTN. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
BAND OF RAIN SHWRS OVER SCNTRL SD WL CONT TO MOV EASTWARD THIS
AFTN...MIXED W/ SNW OVR PINE RIDGE AREA. MID LVL CIGS WL CONTINUE
ACRS MUCH OF WRN SD THIS AFTN...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE PRECIP.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT W/ GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS THE NW AND W
CNTRL SD PLAINS WL DCRS BY EARLY EVEN. MSTLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TUES MRNG.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
919 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SWRN SD AND
ALSO TO ADD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z KUNR
SOUNDING...SUGGESTED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FROM ASCENT TO
REACH THE WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE HIGHER-ELEVATION AREAS
THAT ARE SEEING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT-
TERM PROGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE UPPER ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. A 80-90KT JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SW-NE. THE SFC CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN INTO NERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BUT RELATIVELY STRONG AREA OF
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTN. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...INCLUDING KRAP...DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR LOOKS TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THICKER HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PULL QUITE A BIT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE OVER THE REGION WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE VERY
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. HARDEST PART WAS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WERE
CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER OUT WAY TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF
BOTH KEEP A THICK LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING/EVOLVING...OPTED TO GO WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE HAD A FREEZE WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME READINGS AT
33 DEGREES AROUND FRIONA AND MULESHOE SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT
FEEL THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED FOR NOW.
WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT BACKWARDS
FROM OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH AS INSOLATION IS USED TO EVAPORATE
ANY SURFACE MOISTURE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SO NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A LIGHT WIND ALL DAY AND
LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM MORE
THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS PROVIDING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WILL SHEAR OUT
WHILST SKIRTING SSE TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEREFORE START OFF DRY AS AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PROMOTES DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE DRY
COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW
NIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR/AT THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SFC RIDGE WITH HINTS OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LEADING TO A PROJECTED STRONGER
AND BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/...IN COMPARISON TO TOMORROW
NIGHT/S FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL BRING ABOUT
THE RETURN OF BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...HENCE REBOUNDING
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS COLD FRONT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...WITH CURRENT
ITERATIONS SHOWING EITHER A STOUT SFC RIDGE DRIVING IN A BREEZY
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE ECMWF/ OR A WEAKER
FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE GFS/. A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS APPEARS APPROPRIATE ATTM...THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND BELOW NORM TEMPS ARE VALID.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 36 63 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 61 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 38 59 36 64 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 39 60 38 65 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 40 59 36 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 59 37 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 42 65 43 68 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 62 41 67 42 / 20 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 61 40 68 43 / 50 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1053 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
AVIATION...
Tricky situation next 24 hours, as the upper-lvl trough approaches
West Texas/SE NM. VFR conditions remain all terminals, and latest
NAM buffer soundings persist in developing LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys
everywhere but KFST overnight, beginning around issuance time at KHOB.
The latest HRRR suggests these conditions will be possible
KHOB/KMAF, but otherwise keep lwr cigs/vsbys east of the area.
However, current KMAF VWP shows the LLJ already up to 35kt, and
forecast to peak at 50+kts overnight. This, combined w/abundant
high cloud to retard radiational cooling, suggests cigs/vsbys will
be somewhat better than what buffer soundings suggest. Current
TAFs keep MVFR or better for the next 24 hours, and we`ll keep
them there or above attm. Conditions should improve to VFR all
terminals by around 18Z Monday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
The main focus this forecast period continues to be a deep trough
currently over the western CONUS which will move through our region
over the next couple of days, and associated precipitation chances.
Models continue to be in good agreement regarding the progressive
nature of the aforementioned trough, which will develop an
increasingly positive tilt as it moves toward the central CONUS.
Persistent, deep southwesterly flow will allow for continued
moisture transport ahead of the system, ultimately resulting in
precipitable water values of roughly 1.00" to 1.20" across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico per model soundings. While
precipitation chances tonight are highest over higher terrain,
Monday through Tuesday will see the chance for precipitation
overspread the rest of the area. Model soundings for Monday
afternoon indicate the presence of weak elevated CAPE, and given
ample ascent under the right entrance region of an upper level jet
rounding the base of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. While the
current threat of severe weather is marginal, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with storms that develop, and localized flash
flooding may be a concern, especially if training occurs.
The Monday night through Tuesday time frame still looks to be the
best window of opportunity for widespread measurable rainfall from
this system as the dynamics of the advancing trough combine with a
cold front that is progged to move south through the area.
Precipitation will then be shunted further to the south and east as
drier air filters in behind the front, with dry conditions expected
from Wednesday evening onward. Temperatures Tuesday will drop well
below normal due to the aforementioned front, resulting in very
little diurnal recovery as highs will top out in the middle 50s to
low 60s. Surface high pressure will sink southward through the
plains and into North Texas by Thursday into Friday, resulting in
winds veering to the south as temperatures slowly moderate back
toward normal. Both the GFS and ECMWF currently indicate another
shortwave dropping south on the back side of the trough, which could
drag another cold front through the area on Saturday, though a lack
of available moisture would preclude any mention of precipitation.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
545 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE MOSTLY LEVELED
OFF FURTHER WEST. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO THE WAUSAU TO
GREEN BAY AREAS BUT CLOUDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE 29 ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO ENTER NW
WISCONSIN. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AT DULUTH
WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE VILAS COUNTY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. CLOUD
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP TRENDS
ON WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
SPOTTY RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARGUE FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE FURTHER NORTH DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE LOW
OVERCAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TRYING TO TIME THE CLEARING
IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATE...SO THINK
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
LATE AND A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH
AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S
SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
QUICKLY AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
DAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN ZONE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SINCE EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLAKES RIGHT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER
SO LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE TWO TO SEVEN DAY PERIOD OCCURS
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES
IN...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WI. GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS
WHIP THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI IN ABOUT
6-8 HOURS WHILE THE NAM DAWDLES 2-4 HOURS LONGER. OTHER THAN
TIMING...THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...SREF PLUMES
INDICATE ABOUT 0.2" LIQUID ACCUMULATION AT GRB WITH ABOUT 1/2"
SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD ON THURS. WPC 1640Z 2-DAY
WINTER PRECIP HIGHLIGHTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL WI.
ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER LIGHT SHOT OF MIXED PRECIP. FINALLY...A THIRD CLIPPER
APPROACHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
ON ANY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF GENERATES AN IMPRESSIVE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY LATE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
VFR CIGS OF 4000 TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MVL
AVIATION.......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION...TIMING
OF PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. THOUGH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM THIS EVENING OVER IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN EXIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT
LINGERS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A POTENT BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TO THAT PART
OF THE STATE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. BUT CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHERE DEEPER DRYING HOLDS FIRM. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAYS
READINGS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
PCPN CHANCES AND TYPE WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.
AT LEAST TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...
ONE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A COUPLE SURGES
OF ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE WED-THU CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AS THEY HAVE A SIMILAR SFC LOW TRACK (THRU SOUTHERN WI)
AND TIMING. PCPN WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDDAY...THEN
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NC/FAR NE/C WI ON WEDS
NGT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS. MIXED RAIN/SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMS. THE GFS IS INITIALLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LESS SNOW ACCUMS THAN THE ECMWF.
THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVG THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDL SNOW ACCUMS AND
A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SUPPORT A COUPLE
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ATTM. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT THIS
OUT...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESSS...
IT LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
MID-EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE BY
THIS TIME. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES AND SHOWERS END LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1144 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS IS GENERATING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ARE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LOWER DECK DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN AS LOWER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO SIGN OF THIS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM AND 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL RATHER LARGE BASED
ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS. WILL BRING IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL
ANOTHER PUSH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVES LATE. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND. LOWS RANGING THROUGH
THE 30S.
MONDAY...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THOUGH
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT SUPER DRY
THOUGH...AND ANY SHOWERS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP TO
THE GROUND. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS TIME AND
WILL HAVE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE DRY AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF
PRECIP FOR THE MORNING BUT CHANCES WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE
MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
SATURATION AND BEING POSITIONED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET.
WARMER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE
NORTH WHILE THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IS TO
THE SOUTH. EXPECT A LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
LACK OF MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE THE MODELS. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AND PRODUCES THE MOST PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO HAS THE
MOST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SOMEWHERE IN WISCONSIN.
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
00Z TUESDAY. COULD BE SCT MVFR CIGS AFTER 21Z OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TAFS SITES AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
$$
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
914 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAVE CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW THIS MORNING WITHIN THE BAND OF PRECIP NOW SITUATED FROM
ALLIANCE TO KIMBALL AND STEADILY MOVING EAST. UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE...AS WELL AS ADDED IN
ISOLATED THUNDER AS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN
THE BAND. COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY...WITH
PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE THUNDERSNOW. ACROSS
WYOMING...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BAND...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITHIN THE
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO MIX
RAIN WITH THE SNOW ABOVE 5500 FT...AND LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO ALL
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNSET
WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S TONIGHT. ICY
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS TEMPS DROP AND RAIN/SLUSH FREEZES ONTO
ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND
OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A 120 KT H25 JET STREAK EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO EASTERN CO. A SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES...FROM ABOUT LUSK TO CHADRON AT 12Z. PCPN BANDING
ALREADY OCCURRING PER THE CYS RADAR LOOP FROM CHEYENNE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN GOSHEN COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW SWATH
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPVS BENEATH LARGER
SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO
THE AREA. GFS AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE H25 JET
THROUGH 18Z...SO EXPECT STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BANDING SNOW. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH
INTO GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTIES...BUT THINK TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LESS THERE AS LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND TOR ARE STILL SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW 40S.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
18Z. MODEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...SO THE
MAIN PUSH OF SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY THEN. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
INTO CHEYENNE FOR POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS. VERY EFFICIENT
SNOW GROWTH IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH PERIODS OF HIGHER RATES AT OUR
OFFICE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BELIEVE WE ARE SEEING ENOUGH
INITIAL MELTING TO KEEP US IN ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IT COULD BE QUITE
CLOSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD
AIR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTN. INHERITED
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA STATE LINE...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOOKS A BIT WARM OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WET BULB COOLING COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE PANHANDLE SITES BASED ON NAM SOUNDING
PROFILES. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR EXPECTED SNOW DEPTH AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROBABLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR LARAMIE LOWS
TONIGHT AS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIGH VALLEYS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE AND WED. LATEST PROGS WOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF A RATHER
POTENT JET STREAK SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 OR 60
METERS AROUND 00Z WED ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H7. BUMPED UP
WINDS AT ARL GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY COOL WEEK
AHEAD...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPS STAY IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE THROUGH WED...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO
50S AT THE SURFACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS STATES
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...A UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 850MB CRAIG-CASPER GRADIENT INCREASES
TO 50M WITH 700MB WINDS PROGGED NEAR 40KT ACROSS THE GAP WIND
LOCALES OF SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH. WESTERN NE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY BUT
COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 30MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING MARKED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. SATURDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM SOUTHEAST
WY INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THESE LOW CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TODAY. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. SNOW
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
WILL MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...THOUGH IT
WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
523 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND
OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A 120 KT H25 JET STREAK EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO EASTERN CO. A SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES...FROM ABOUT LUSK TO CHADRON AT 12Z. PCPN BANDING
ALREADY OCCURRING PER THE CYS RADAR LOOP FROM CHEYENNE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN GOSHEN COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW SWATH
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPVS BENEATH LARGER
SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO
THE AREA. GFS AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE H25 JET
THROUGH 18Z...SO EXPECT STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BANDING SNOW. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH
INTO GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTIES...BUT THINK TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LESS THERE AS LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND TOR ARE STILL SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW 40S.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
18Z. MODEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...SO THE
MAIN PUSH OF SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY THEN. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
INTO CHEYENNE FOR POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS. VERY EFFICIENT
SNOW GROWTH IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH PERIODS OF HIGHER RATES AT OUR
OFFICE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BELIEVE WE ARE SEEING ENOUGH
INITIAL MELTING TO KEEP US IN ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IT COULD BE QUITE
CLOSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD
AIR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTN. INHERITED
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA STATE LINE...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOOKS A BIT WARM OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WET BULB COOLING COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE PANHANDLE SITES BASED ON NAM SOUNDING
PROFILES. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR EXPECTED SNOW DEPTH AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROBABLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR LARAMIE LOWS
TONIGHT AS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIGH VALLEYS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE AND WED. LATEST PROGS WOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF A RATHER
POTENT JET STREAK SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 OR 60
METERS AROUND 00Z WED ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H7. BUMPED UP
WINDS AT ARL GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY COOL WEEK
AHEAD...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPS STAY IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE THROUGH WED...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO
50S AT THE SURFACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS STATES
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...A UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 850MB CRAIG-CASPER GRADIENT INCREASES
TO 50M WITH 700MB WINDS PROGGED NEAR 40KT ACROSS THE GAP WIND
LOCALES OF SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH. WESTERN NE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY BUT
COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 30MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING MARKED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. SATURDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM SOUTHEAST
WY INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THESE LOW CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TODAY. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. SNOW
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
WILL MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...THOUGH IT
WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
1033 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY HAS INCREASED
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEW NAM/GFS HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW UP TO CASPER
MOUNTAIN AND EVEN INTO CASPER TOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE HRRR EARLIER WAS BULLISH THERE TOO...BUT 04Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON PCPN. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HRRR LOOKS LATER ON.
HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY AND FAR EAST
SWEETWATER COUNTY THROUGH 12Z AND WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ADJUST AS
NEEDED.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT)
A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER A MAINLY DRY NIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN
THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL.
ALL THE MODELS NOW ONLY HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SO
WE TRIMMED ALL POPS BACK TO ISOLATED BEFORE 18Z. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST UPSLOPE AND SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A 110 KNOT JET STREAK MOVES IN.
THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM BUT
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS FOR EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
LITTLE WILL MAKE EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE GUSTY BREEZE WITH THE TIGHTENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT NOTHING
UNUSUAL FOR NOVEMBER IN WYOMING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE.
LIGHTER SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHUT OFF ANY
INSTABILITY. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR THAT PERIOD AS WELL. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO ALL AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN MOVES TOWARDS WYOMING FOR FRIDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND QPF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. ANOTHER
TRANSITORY RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER...MORE
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM MAY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING DIFFERENCES SINCE THIS IS
A WEEK OUT. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/
WEST OF THE DIVIDE KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 16Z OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE THE
TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY
WIND WILL OCCUR AT KRKS/KPNA/KBPI FROM ABOUT 17Z MONDAY UNTIL 01Z
TUE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
FROM FAR EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY TO THE KCPR AIRPORT...THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS
THE SNOW ENDS THE CEILINGS RISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE
REST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1021 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
TODAY WAS A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS
PEAKED IN THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS OUT WEST...WITH MID 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AS PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT ONLY 2MB/6HR.
BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS IN COMBINATION WITH FUTURE TRENDS OFF NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP ALL
THAT MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH FREEZING TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO
ONLY OCCUR ABOVE 5000 FT AND MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN FOR
AREAS BELOW 7500 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
AREAS ABOVE 7500 FT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS...THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000
FT LOOKING TO BE ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK AND A MIXED PRECIP TYPE
CONTINUING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER...WITH ALL
RAIN FURTHER EAST. TEMPS SHOULD STAY COOL IN THE MORNING WITH THE
FRESH SNOWPACK...WITH A SLOW RISE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP
DIMINISHES AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK.
REGARDING EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW TOTALS
FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS IS...WITH A SLIGHT
TREND UPWARD IN ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM OVERALL WITH 120
KT JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER NM/AZ/CO.
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE NIGHT. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS
PROGGED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET THIS EVENING OVER THE CO/KS/NE BORDER...WHICH
WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. INITIAL EAST-
NORTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDED
BOOST OF UPSLOPE FORCING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WITHIN THE
LARAMIE VALLEY. NAM SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THESE FORCING ELEMENTS IN
PLACE...FELT OK IN BUMPING UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUS...PARTICULARLY WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WYOMING PLAINS. IN PARTICULAR...AREAS
FROM THE LARAMIE VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH LARAMIE COUNTY SHOULD SEE
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS WITH 4 TO 7 IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
2 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD BE A CONSERVATIVE NUMBER IF
TEMPS COOL OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENT THINKING OR IF THE SYSTEM IN
GENERAL SLOWS IN SPEED WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE IF THE JET
STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH MORE THAN CURRENT MODELS SHOW.
IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS SO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTRYCONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA. THUS WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...AND INTERSTATE 25 ACROSS
LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW TOTALS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHTER...BUT
AGAIN WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHETHER TEMPS COOL OFF ENOUGH DURING PEAK
FORCING. COULD SEE A GOOD STEADY RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
THAT DONT CHANGE TO SNOW.
PRECIP SHOULD STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
ON TUESDAY...WIND WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR AS A 40 TO 50 KT 700 MB JETMAX CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING SOUTH ON A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM MIDWEEK LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...SO WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY NO POPS WITH IT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT WE
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS PICK UP BY LATE WEEK AGAIN GIVING US A BIT OF A
WARMUP LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
LATEST HRRR FORECAST WAS USED ON THE 06Z TAFS. HAVE WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z...SPREADING INTO KCYS BY 09Z. LOWER CONDITIONS FOR THE
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS WITH MOST AREAS GOING DOWN AFTER 12Z. LOOKS
LIKE A LONG DURATION LOW CEILING/VSBY EVENT LASTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
NO CHANGES OR UPDATES REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE.
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR SETTLING IN
PLACE...SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. MOSTLY RAIN LIGHT
SNOW MIX EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE (NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS). PLEASE SEE THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SNOW IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT MSL...AS DOES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE DIPPING INTO STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...A
CURRENTLY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW OVER MONTANA WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS INTO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LOW ENERGY LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE FL PENINSULA AND UP THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE IS BEING CUT DOWN BY THE ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVER OUR HEADS THROUGH THE DURATION OF TODAY. THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS PER 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE AND NWP TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
PLOTS. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB...WITH A DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE TROP...AND THEN HIGH MOISTURE AGAIN TOWARD THE UPPER TROP (ABOVE
300-400MB).
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...ELONGATED 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM GA/SC EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...HELPING TO RESUPPLY THE LOWER
LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
ARE SEASONABLE...WITH MAINLY 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PLEASANT...DRY...AND WARM EARLY NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. STACKED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION
HELPING TO NOT ONLY KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE...BUT ALSO RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING ON EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN PERIOD OF SCT STRATOCU THIS MORNING AND
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME HIGHER LEVEL...BUT THIN CIRRUS
STREAMS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. OUR REGION HAS
BEEN MIXING UP TO 850-800MB THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND EXPECT
SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY. THIS TYPE OF MIXING WITH 850-800MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11-13C SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR MAY BRIEFLY HIT MIDDLE 80S.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE MS VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS TO THE
SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVOLVING TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND LOSS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL REMAIN
QUIET...DRY...AND SEASONABLE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTH...AND 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY AND BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AROUND
SUNSET. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE RETURN IS
MEAGER AT BEST...AND MUCH OF THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THURSDAY ANOTHER COMPLETELY RAIN
FREE DAY. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM. WE WILL HAVE LOST
THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT WILL NOW BE WITHIN THE
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES WILL AGAIN REACH UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST SPOTS. WINDS
SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS. COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A GREAT
WEDNESDAY EVERYBODY!
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING FRI AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH
ACROSS FL...WITH SOME ROBUST WINDS...AND SETTLES IN FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF EASTWARD TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. DURING THE
WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND CARVES OUT A
TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE YUCATAN. THIS WILL HELP LIFT THE FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD BACK ACROSS THE AREA AND
FORM A SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE ON THE GULF THAT TRACKS TO THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SUN. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC STARTED OUT
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
FASTER AND HAS A DEEPER LOW WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE SIMILAR WITH
A MORE MODEST TROUGH AND IS SLOWER. ON MON THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW EXIT OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...CONTINUING
INTO TUE.
FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS INTO SAT THEN
BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
SEE A RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES END THE WEEK NEAR
NORMAL BUT COOL OFF SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...BUT THEN SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TO AROUND
NORMAL BY TUE. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE WINDS...AS NOTED ABOVE...WILL
BE FRI WHEN SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU WITH BASES ABOVE 5000FT WILL CONTINUE
CROSS THE PENINSULA FROM WEST TO EAST...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS AT
TIMES INVADE OUR SKIES FROM THE WEST. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
1026MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT A SHIFT OF WINDS
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF
ENGLEWOOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 66 83 64 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 84 65 85 66 / 10 0 0 10
GIF 83 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 84 64 83 65 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 84 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 82 68 82 68 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN CIGS HAVE
LIFTED BACK TO VFR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT CMX WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW INTO THE
KEWEENAW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY IWD AND
SAW WED EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CIGS MAY AGAIN DROP TOWARD
MVFR...MAINLY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL EXIT NE AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS SINKS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. EXPECT THE
LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND SHIFT E
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON THURSDAY WHILE
FURTHER DEEPENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MANITOBA AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NW GALES TO
35KTS OVER N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1208 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN CIGS HAVE
LIFTED BACK TO VFR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT CMX WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW INTO THE
KEWEENAW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY IWD AND
SAW WED EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CIGS MAY AGAIN DROP TOWARD
MVFR...MAINLY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING AS MUCH COLDER
AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR NW GALES OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALE LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO
HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL.
EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW
MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR
SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS
FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS
OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST
FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY
COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS
WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA
FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL
PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE
CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND
ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND
NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND
ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
17Z WDNESDAY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST (300-330) 12-14G19-22KT
AND INCREASE TO 20-25G28-34KT BY 19Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
951 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW
A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWRN
CANADA...WHICH WAS SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TNGT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT TNGT THERE WILL ONLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NWRN SD INTO THE BLKHLS AND EXTREME NERN WY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WINDS OF 35-45 KT...RESULTING IN WIND ADVY CRITERIA
ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN SD PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECENT LACK OF
PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DUST
POLLUTION ALERT FOR WEST RAPID CITY. THE MAIN SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES WILL BE ACROSS ND...AND THE TIMING OF THE MAXIMUM BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND
WRNG CRITERIA WINDS TO BE ACHIEVED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SUNDAY
LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE NICE WITH
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA WITH SUBSEQUENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN...BUT
THEN WARMUP APPEARS AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF
RUNS INSIST ON MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK AND SOME GROUND-WHITENING SNOW
FOR MONDAY. 12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR OR
SNOW...SHUNTING CORE OF COLD AIR EAST OF CWA WITH UPPER TROUGH MUCH
FURTHER EAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COLDER THAN OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT
WARMER THAN ECMWF. THICKNESS DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY FOR CONTRASTING
RUNS ABOUT 250M. HAVE FOLLOWED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW UP IN LATER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ TO 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ043-046-047-049.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ013-014-025-
026-031-032-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
EXIST ABOUT A 10-20 PCT CHANCE OF MVFR DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AT KLBB AND PERHAPS 20 PCT RISK OF IFR AT KCDS TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THOUGH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PULL QUITE A BIT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE OVER THE REGION WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE VERY
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. HARDEST PART WAS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WERE
CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER OUT WAY TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF
BOTH KEEP A THICK LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING/EVOLVING...OPTED TO GO WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE HAD A FREEZE WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME READINGS AT
33 DEGREES AROUND FRIONA AND MULESHOE SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT
FEEL THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED FOR NOW.
WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT BACKWARDS
FROM OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH AS INSOLATION IS USED TO EVAPORATE
ANY SURFACE MOISTURE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SO NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A LIGHT WIND ALL DAY AND
LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM MORE
THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS PROVIDING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WILL SHEAR OUT
WHILST SKIRTING SSE TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEREFORE START OFF DRY AS AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PROMOTES DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE DRY
COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW
NIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR/AT THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SFC RIDGE WITH HINTS OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LEADING TO A PROJECTED STRONGER
AND BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/...IN COMPARISON TO TOMORROW
NIGHT/S FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL BRING ABOUT
THE RETURN OF BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...HENCE REBOUNDING
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS COLD FRONT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...WITH CURRENT
ITERATIONS SHOWING EITHER A STOUT SFC RIDGE DRIVING IN A BREEZY
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE ECMWF/ OR A WEAKER
FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE GFS/. A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS APPEARS APPROPRIATE ATTM...THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND BELOW NORM TEMPS ARE VALID.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 36 63 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 61 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 38 59 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 39 60 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 40 59 36 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 59 37 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 42 65 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 62 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 61 40 68 43 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE MOSTLY LEVELED
OFF FURTHER WEST. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO THE WAUSAU TO
GREEN BAY AREAS BUT CLOUDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE 29 ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO ENTER NW
WISCONSIN. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AT DULUTH
WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE VILAS COUNTY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. CLOUD
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP TRENDS
ON WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
SPOTTY RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARGUE FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE FURTHER NORTH DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE LOW
OVERCAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TRYING TO TIME THE CLEARING
IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATE...SO THINK
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
LATE AND A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH
AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S
SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
QUICKLY AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
DAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN ZONE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SINCE EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLAKES RIGHT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER
SO LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE TWO TO SEVEN DAY PERIOD OCCURS
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES
IN...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WI. GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS
WHIP THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI IN ABOUT
6-8 HOURS WHILE THE NAM DAWDLES 2-4 HOURS LONGER. OTHER THAN
TIMING...THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...SREF PLUMES
INDICATE ABOUT 0.2" LIQUID ACCUMULATION AT GRB WITH ABOUT 1/2"
SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD ON THURS. WPC 1640Z 2-DAY
WINTER PRECIP HIGHLIGHTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL WI.
ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER LIGHT SHOT OF MIXED PRECIP. FINALLY...A THIRD CLIPPER
APPROACHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
ON ANY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF GENERATES AN IMPRESSIVE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY LATE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
VFR CIGS OF 4000 TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF
A WAUSAU TO IRON MTN LINE AND RAIN OR SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MVL
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
629 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND STALL FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AS IT
DEPARTS FRIDAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
WINDS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS SO ANY RAIN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FRAGMENTED THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY DRY LOW-LEVELS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WELL OVER
10F.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WELL INTO THE 50S. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FAVORABLE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH...WITH LOCALLY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY SKIRT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY INT THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME SPREAD OVER PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE STORM TRACK...THE MDL SUITE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION THURSDAYS STORM.
A SERIES OF JET MAXES/SHORT WVS AT 500HPA CARVE OUT A TROF OVER THE
LOWER GRTLKS WITH AN ACCOMP CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW BY THU MRNG. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...IN BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC
ZONE FM THE OHIO VLY TO CAPE MAY NJ. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FM THE GULF OF MEX LIFTS NE UP THE PIEDMONT...AND
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE MID ATLC REACHING THE S TIER OF
NYS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF THE WMFNT.
DURING THU THIS 500HPA TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORT WVS DIG INTO IT. TOP DOWN CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AS SFC LOW
CENTER JUMPS TO EASTERN SEABOARD AT TRIPPLE POINT OFF NJ DURING THU.
RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY AND CONTS
INTO THU EVNG AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MVS NE TO DOWN EAST MAINE
BY FRI MRNG. ALL GUID TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH A
TRACK ALONG OR JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NT...WITH PCPN INITIALLY FM WARM
CONVEYOR MOISTURE INFLOW...BUT MAINLY FROM COLD CONVEYOR BELT INFLOW
THU NT. AS COASTAL LOW MVS N CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE THU NT WILL
CHANGE THE PCPN FROM RAIN TO SCT -SHSN. MOST MDL
(GEM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PLUMES) QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS N & W OF ALB. THE NAM HAS ANOTHER HALF INCH
OVER THESE VALUES...WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. NONE OF WHICH IS
SIG ENOUGH TO BE A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN.
FRI STRONG N SFC WIND GRADIENT W/14 HPA ACROSS NYS AS THE STORM
LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES. AT 500HPA FCA WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE MAIN TROF AS ITS CUTTING OFF WITH SVRL SHORT WVS DIVING INTO
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NY/NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER FCA
FRI...WITH SCT -SHSN PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB IN N-NW FLOW ASSOC
WITH DEEP 500HPA TROF EVOLVING INTO A CUT OFF. LK EFFECT RESPONSE
WILL MAINLY W OF SYR AS H850 FLOW IS N TO NE FRI.
FRI NT THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE NE INTO
ATLC...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. HWVR DURING THE EVNG THE WIND
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. OVERNIGHT FRI FCA RETURNS TO A FAST 500HPA
FLOW WITH QUICK CHANGING WX SYSTEMS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST.
SAT STARTS FAIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RGN...BUT NEXT STRONG
SHRT WV AND ITS ASSOC CDFNT IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE W
GRTLKS...AND CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN
SAT. SAT NT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN WITH SCT -SHRA
AND -SNSN.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THU...AND JUST TREND DOWN
AFTER. FRI AND SAT THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EFP WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND IN A FAST 500HPA FLOW PATTERN.
LATEST CDFNT EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN...AND 500HPA TROF AXIS
FOLLOWS SUIT DURING THE DAY. THAT LVS FCA IN NW FL;OW OF
CAA...WITH ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AT SFC...CYCLONIC FLOW ABV. SUN WILL
BE TYPICAL LATE FALL DAY WITH VRBL CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/SHSN
NW...AND PS TO MS SE.
SUN NT YET ANOTHER SHRT WV MVS ACROSS NY/QB BORDER RGN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
COLDEST CORE OF AIR MASS REMAINS N ON QB/ON BORDER RGNS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN OTTAWA VLY W INTO N GRTLKS. WHILE 500HPA FLOW SUN NT
WILL BE BACKING SUN NT...WAA WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
INCR CLOUDS.
MON 500HPA FLOW BCMS SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE USA.
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA WILL SHIFT N OUT OF RGN DURING THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY PS CONDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NR NORMAL. BY TUE 500
HPA CUT OFF OVER PRAIRIES OF S CNTRL CAN/N GRT PLAINS TURNS 500
HPA FLOW SW...AS W GRTLKS CYCLOGEN DEVELOPS. THIS LIFTS NE TWRD
HUDSON BAY...MEANWHILE OUT HERE IN THE EAST SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS SW...FCA SURGES INTO WARM SECTOR SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MILD VETERANS DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BLO
NORMAL...AND END IT ABV. WILL POPULATE W/HPC...BUT INCR TEMPS 5 OR
SO DEG TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 16Z.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WITH DRY
LOW-LEVELS IN PLACE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES GENERALLY 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25 KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KPOU LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASE
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH....BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT...AND UNDER UNDER 10 MPH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED REGION WIDE. THIS WILL RESULT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT
POSE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC THREAT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
553 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND STALL FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AS IT
DEPARTS FRIDAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
WINDS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS SO ANY RAIN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FRAGMENTED THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY DRY LOW-LEVELS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WELL OVER
10F.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WELL INTO THE 50S. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A
STRAY SHOWER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST
AREAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FAVORABLE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH...WITH LOCALLY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY SKIRT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY INT THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME SPREAD OVER PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE STORM TRACK...THE MDL SUITE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION THURSDAYS STORM.
A SERIES OF JET MAXES/SHORT WVS AT 500HPA CARVE OUT A TROF OVER THE
LOWER GRTLKS WITH AN ACCOMP CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW BY THU MRNG. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...IN BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC
ZONE FM THE OHIO VLY TO CAPE MAY NJ. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FM THE GULF OF MEX LIFTS NE UP THE PIEDMONT...AND
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE MID ATLC REACHING THE S TIER OF
NYS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF THE WMFNT.
DURING THU THIS 500HPA TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORT WVS DIG INTO IT. TOP DOWN CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AS SFC LOW
CENTER JUMPS TO EASTERN SEABOARD AT TRIPPLE POINT OFF NJ DURING THU.
RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY AND CONTS
INTO THU EVNG AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MVS NE TO DOWN EAST MAINE
BY FRI MRNG. ALL GUID TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH A
TRACK ALONG OR JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NT...WITH PCPN INITIALLY FM WARM
CONVEYOR MOISTURE INFLOW...BUT MAINLY FROM COLD CONVEYOR BELT INFLOW
THU NT. AS COASTAL LOW MVS N CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE THU NT WILL
CHANGE THE PCPN FROM RAIN TO SCT -SHSN. MOST MDL
(GEM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PLUMES) QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS N & W OF ALB. THE NAM HAS ANOTHER HALF INCH
OVER THESE VALUES...WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. NONE OF WHICH IS
SIG ENOUGH TO BE A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN.
FRI STRONG N SFC WIND GRADIENT W/14 HPA ACROSS NYS AS THE STORM
LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES. AT 500HPA FCA WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE MAIN TROF AS ITS CUTTING OFF WITH SVRL SHORT WVS DIVING INTO
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NY/NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER FCA
FRI...WITH SCT -SHSN PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB IN N-NW FLOW ASSOC
WITH DEEP 500HPA TROF EVOLVING INTO A CUT OFF. LK EFFECT RESPONSE
WILL MAINLY W OF SYR AS H850 FLOW IS N TO NE FRI.
FRI NT THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE NE INTO
ATLC...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. HWVR DURING THE EVNG THE WIND
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. OVERNIGHT FRI FCA RETURNS TO A FAST 500HPA
FLOW WITH QUICK CHANGING WX SYSTEMS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST.
SAT STARTS FAIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RGN...BUT NEXT STRONG
SHRT WV AND ITS ASSOC CDFNT IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE W
GRTLKS...AND CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN
SAT. SAT NT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN WITH SCT -SHRA
AND -SNSN.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THU...AND JUST TREND DOWN
AFTER. FRI AND SAT THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EFP WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND IN A FAST 500HPA FLOW PATTERN.
LATEST CDFNT EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN...AND 500HPA TROF AXIS
FOLLOWS SUIT DURING THE DAY. THAT LVS FCA IN NW FL;OW OF
CAA...WITH ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AT SFC...CYCLONIC FLOW ABV. SUN WILL
BE TYPICAL LATE FALL DAY WITH VRBL CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/SHSN
NW...AND PS TO MS SE.
SUN NT YET ANOTHER SHRT WV MVS ACROSS NY/QB BORDER RGN AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
COLDEST CORE OF AIR MASS REMAINS N ON QB/ON BORDER RGNS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN OTTAWA VLY W INTO N GRTLKS. WHILE 500HPA FLOW SUN NT
WILL BE BACKING SUN NT...WAA WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
INCR CLOUDS.
MON 500HPA FLOW BCMS SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE USA.
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA WILL SHIFT N OUT OF RGN DURING THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY PS CONDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NR NORMAL. BY TUE 500
HPA CUT OFF OVER PRAIRIES OF S CNTRL CAN/N GRT PLAINS TURNS 500
HPA FLOW SW...AS W GRTLKS CYCLOGEN DEVELOPS. THIS LIFTS NE TWRD
HUDSON BAY...MEANWHILE OUT HERE IN THE EAST SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS SW...FCA SURGES INTO WARM SECTOR SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MILD VETERANS DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BLO
NORMAL...AND END IT ABV. WILL POPULATE W/HPC...BUT INCR TEMPS 5 OR
SO DEG TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT...AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT...WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 10C...SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE
OVERCAST AROUND 20 KFT AND LOWERING TO OVERCAST AROUND 5-7 KFT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 09Z-13Z WITH ONLY VCSH MENTIONED AT
KGFL. HAVE INCLUDED A SCATTERED CLOUD GROUP AROUND 3-5 KFT TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KGFL AS PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LIMIT ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASE
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH....BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT...AND UNDER UNDER 10 MPH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED REGION WIDE. THIS WILL RESULT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT
POSE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC THREAT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO
HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL.
EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW
MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR
SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS
FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS
OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST
FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY
COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS
WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA
FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL
PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE
CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND
ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND
NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND
ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY 16Z WIND WILL BECOME 30013G21KT AND
INCREASE TO 31024G33KT AFTER 18Z. WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID
ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE
LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO
AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX
TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH
OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC
REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD
10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING
WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KCRE/KMYR ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS...BECOMING SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING
HORUS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THU MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR
UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT
RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST
PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5
FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX
FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND
FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DICTATED
BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT REMAIN
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER...
10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
922 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...WITH 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING WSW FLOW ALOFT.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT REACHED MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS OF
MID MORNING...SO THE SLOW TIMING IN OUR FORECAST GRIDS LOOKS ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME. NE TN AND SW VA NOT LIKELY TO MEASURE ANY
RAINFALL UNTIL EARLY EVENING...ALTHO RAP MODEL DOES SPREAD LIGHT QPF
ACROSS SW VA BY 18Z TO 19Z.
CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE AND CONTINUES TO THICKEN...SO HOURLY AND
MAX TEMP GRIDS MAY NEED A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. OTHERWISE...HIGH RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES FOR
THOSE AREAS THURSDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 55 65 39 / 50 90 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 52 62 38 / 50 90 40 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 53 61 37 / 60 90 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 48 61 36 / 30 90 40 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
CLEAR SKIES OF THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WAS GRADUALLY BEING MOISTENED BY VIRGA AND SOME SPRINKLES
WERE REPORTED AT THE OFFICE. A BAND OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WERE ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LOW TO MID 60S WERE REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WAS LOCATED THE LONGEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME RASN IN
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SW MN...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE MSAS THE
PRESSURE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. ANALYZING THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGESTS THAT CONSALL AND BCCONSALL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CWA. AS
SUCH THE BEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THAT THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF BOTH SUGGEST PRECIP WITH
FROPA. A DECENT RADAR ECHO TO THE WEST MAKES ME THINK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY. WITH THE
SPRINKLES EARLIER AND THE HRRR RUNS...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
NEAR MORNING THE CAA PUMPS INTO THE AREA AND LEADS TO COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. IF PRECIP IS FALLING ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE...SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. DECIDED TO ADD SOME RASN IN THOSE COUNTIES AND
EVEN DUBUQUE COUNTY UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TO THE EAST THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND WILL LEAD
TO A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS WI AND IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TOMORROW. MOST
GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 35 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN LATER
IN THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE A MORE VOLATILE TURN DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AM EXPECTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI RIVER
VALLEY...YIELDING LOWS IN THE 22-28 DEGREE RANGE.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATES A WEAK FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ACROSS THE
NORTH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PHASING
ISSUES PERSIST AMONG THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SCENARIO IS LOW. TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF/GEM FAVOR A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MEANS WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND COLDER...WITH A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. PHASING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RESOLVE...AND WITH HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 5 DAYS OUT...WILL NOT
STRAY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY`S
HIGHS IS 45-55...WHICH LEAVES SOME WIGGLE ROOM EITHER WAY. POPS
RANGE FROM LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH...TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THREE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IFR AT DBQ BUT DID NOT JUMP ON IT. WITH THE NW WINDS USUALLY SEE
CEILINGS LIFTING. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NW TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LAST IS THE
CHANCE OF RAIN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS BUT
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DOES OCCUR
SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT CID AND DBQ NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AS SW WINDS AND RATHER CLEAR SKIES ARE LEADING TO A WARM UP. AS A
RESULT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA A FEW
DEGREES. AS A RESULT RH VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.
ALSO CLEANED UP THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND USED THE TIMING TOOL
TO COME UP WITH SKY GRIDS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR AND RUC
MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT. NEED TO LOOK AT THE POPS AND
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. HRRR HAS LIGHT RAIN CWA WIDE...NOT JUMPING ON
THAT YET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
LARGE SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DENSE CI COVERING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND SE U.S. TUESDAY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS HAD
BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBTLE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTH...WITH SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS TOUCHING THE 30 MARK AS OF 2
AM. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN ADVANCING DECK OF MID CLOUDS WITH
THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER MAKER IN THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AT 06Z SUGGESTED THE 00Z NAM/WRF
WAS VERIFYING BEST WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MT.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...DRIVEN BY THE 150KT JET ANALYZED
TOPPING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AT 00Z. THIS SENDS THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEAST...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING THE CENTER PASSING NEAR
LA CROSSE AROUND 00Z...REACHING AROUND CENTRAL LAKE MI TOWARD 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE GULF CUTOFF
AND ONLY A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND THEN IN THE WRAP-AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW AND AXIS
OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MAINTAINED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...THE EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TODAY AND BECOME REINFORCED BY DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD
OF THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM. RESULTING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO LIMIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A MILD DAY FOR NOVEMBER.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN THUS LIMITED TO THE MID 50S NORTH...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY TOUCH THE LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES
NORTHEAST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BRISK NW WINDS OVER
ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WILL KEEP A
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT AS MODELS HAVE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH CRASHING THERMAL PROFILES...CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA AT SUNRISE WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. THE STRONGER FORCING IS EXITING THE AREA AT SUNRISE SO THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIMITED.
STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
SECOND STORM SYSTEM.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN
AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS ONLY AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH LOW...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX TO
DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
SATURDAY ON...
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM.
MODEL CONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF STORM SYSTEM THREE HAS BEEN
LOW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO MOVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OVER
TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF
COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION. IF THE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PANS OUT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RESPECTIVELY. COLDER AIR BEING
PULLED DOWN BEHIND STORM SYSTEM THREE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE STILL WARM GROUND
WILL CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING ON TUESDAY WOULD CAUSE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE BACK TO A COLD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THREE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IFR AT DBQ BUT DID NOT JUMP ON IT. WITH THE NW WINDS USUALLY SEE
CEILINGS LIFTING. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NW TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LAST IS THE
CHANCE OF RAIN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS BUT
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DOES OCCUR
SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT CID AND DBQ NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1052 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AS SW WINDS AND RATHER CLEAR SKIES ARE LEADING TO A WARM UP. AS A
RESULT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA A FEW
DEGREES. AS A RESULT RH VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.
ALSO CLEANED UP THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND USED THE TIMING TOOL
TO COME UP WITH SKY GRIDS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR AND RUC
MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT. NEED TO LOOK AT THE POPS AND
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. HRRR HAS LIGHT RAIN CWA WIDE...NOT JUMPING ON
THAT YET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
LARGE SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DENSE CI COVERING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND SE U.S. TUESDAY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS HAD
BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBTLE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTH...WITH SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS TOUCHING THE 30 MARK AS OF 2
AM. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN ADVANCING DECK OF MID CLOUDS WITH
THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER MAKER IN THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AT 06Z SUGGESTED THE 00Z NAM/WRF
WAS VERIFYING BEST WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MT.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...DRIVEN BY THE 150KT JET ANALYZED
TOPPING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AT 00Z. THIS SENDS THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEAST...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING THE CENTER PASSING NEAR
LA CROSSE AROUND 00Z...REACHING AROUND CENTRAL LAKE MI TOWARD 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE GULF CUTOFF
AND ONLY A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND THEN IN THE WRAP-AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW AND AXIS
OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MAINTAINED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...THE EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TODAY AND BECOME REINFORCED BY DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD
OF THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM. RESULTING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO LIMIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A MILD DAY FOR NOVEMBER.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN THUS LIMITED TO THE MID 50S NORTH...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY TOUCH THE LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES
NORTHEAST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BRISK NW WINDS OVER
ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WILL KEEP A
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT AS MODELS HAVE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH CRASHING THERMAL PROFILES...CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA AT SUNRISE WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. THE STRONGER FORCING IS EXITING THE AREA AT SUNRISE SO THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIMITED.
STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
SECOND STORM SYSTEM.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN
AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS ONLY AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH LOW...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX TO
DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
SATURDAY ON...
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM.
MODEL CONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF STORM SYSTEM THREE HAS BEEN
LOW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO MOVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OVER
TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF
COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION. IF THE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PANS OUT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RESPECTIVELY. COLDER AIR BEING
PULLED DOWN BEHIND STORM SYSTEM THREE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE STILL WARM GROUND
WILL CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING ON TUESDAY WOULD CAUSE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE BACK TO A COLD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A PROB30
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THE DBQ TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS. DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CIGS WELL INTO VFR THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT AT
DBQ...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE BROUGHT IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME
WEST BY TONIGHT...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY FROM
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING AN OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
919 AM MST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING SE
THROUGH ROSEBUD...TREASURE...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES PER
RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS WERE DUE TO LINGERING DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER
LEVEL JET/S LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS SHOWED THE SHOWERS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON NW
SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES. LIMITED MIXING WAS OCCURRING
OVER THE E ZONES...BUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WERE FAIRLY STRONG
AND CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS THERE. MODELS SHOWED THE WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED
ON MIXING ON BUFKIT. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND
DUE TO MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING MID LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS. GAP FLOW WINDS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PASS SEVERAL
HOURS AS PRESSURE RISES TAKING PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS ORIENTATION IS ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. THE THREAT FOR ADVISORY
WINDS HAS ENDED AND HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE. EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BOUNCE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AND A FEW GUST TO 50
MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...THEN DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TODAY
AS MIXING WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A FEW GUST OF 45 TO 50 MPH
EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTA`S BORDER.
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED POPS EAST OF BILLINGS
FOR THIS MORNING BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY FOR DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS MORE SHORT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AGAIN AND GAP FLOW WINDS WILL BE
DEVELOPING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE GUST TO 50 MPH BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
FAR WESTERN ZONES AS JET DIVERGENCE/QG FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING IN. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING AND
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR WEST
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD FALL...THE MESSAGE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR DOWNTICK IN TEMPERATURES COME
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL DOMINATE THE LANDSCAPE AS
STRONG ENERGY IS FORCED INTO THE REGION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS IMMENSE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN US...THUS CIRCULATING SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM ALL OF
THIS WILL BE RAPIDLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE THE PROSPECT
OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
CONVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND -16 C OVER A BROAD AREA OF SE MONTANA.
FURTHER...BOTH MEX AND EC GUIDANCE ARE HINTING AT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S IN BILLINGS...AND MUCH COLDER AT EASTERN LOCATIONS BY
TUESDAY.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS
FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORESO WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAN
WITH THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL. ALSO OF NOTE...UPPED POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS AS WELL AS AMPLE MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS...AND MAYBE THE FIRST PLAINS SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON. STAY TUNED. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE A GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
LIVINGSTON AND MILES CITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN
SHERIDAN AND MILES CITY. THESE WILL BE VERY LIGHT POP UP SHOWERS
THAT WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 035/064 045/058 032/059 039/057 034/040 019/036
1/N 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 33/W 21/B
LVM 058 035/062 042/055 030/057 037/053 034/037 019/037
1/N 00/N 22/W 10/B 12/W 43/W 21/B
HDN 061 030/065 039/058 029/060 034/058 030/040 019/038
1/N 00/B 13/W 21/B 12/W 43/W 31/B
MLS 055 029/060 041/055 028/054 031/051 030/039 018/032
2/W 00/B 02/W 21/B 12/W 33/W 21/B
4BQ 056 028/063 039/056 028/055 032/055 031/039 016/032
2/W 00/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 33/W 21/B
BHK 050 027/055 037/052 027/049 029/046 027/038 017/027
1/N 00/B 12/W 11/B 12/W 33/W 21/B
SHR 057 029/064 036/057 029/059 031/059 031/032 020/037
1/N 00/B 03/W 31/U 11/B 33/W 31/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO
HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL.
EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW
MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR
SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS
FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS
OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST
FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY
COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS
WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA
FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL
PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE
CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND
ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND
NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND
ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH PEAK GUST POTENTIAL OF 35KTS ACROSS
NORTH WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TERMINALS BELOW 10KTS AFTER 06Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WIND
SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A KVTN TO KLBF LINE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
SOLID AGREEMENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID
ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE
LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO
AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX
TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.........................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH
OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC
REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD
10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND
BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10
KTS...WHICH DO ANTICIPATE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MASK THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AND THUS HAVE KEPT AS TEMPO MVFR ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCT/BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED INTO CURRENT TAF.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SFC
HIGH TO PULL OUT FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT TO YIELD A SSE-SSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...POSSIBLY 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN RESULTING FROM A
WEAK SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SSW-SW WINDS
TONIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT YIELDING 10-15 KT THRUOUT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AOB 2 FT THIS AFTN...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT...AND
UP TO 4 FT THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AN ESE 0.5 TO 1.5 FOOT GROUND
SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY
TO A DOMINATING 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT
RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST
PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5
FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX
FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND
FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
DICTATED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHTER... 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1113 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID
ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE
LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO
AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX
TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH
OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC
REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD
10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING
WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KCRE/KMYR ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS...BECOMING SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING
HORUS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THU MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR
UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SFC
HIGH TO PULL OUT FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT TO YIELD A SSE-SSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...POSSIBLY 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN RESULTING FROM A
WEAK SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SSW-SW WINDS
TONIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT YIELDING 10-15 KT THRUOUT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AOB 2 FT THIS AFTN...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT...AND
UP TO 4 FT THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AN ESE 0.5 TO 1.5 FOOT GROUND
SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY
TO A DOMINATING 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT
RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST
PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5
FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX
FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND
FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
DICTATED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHTER... 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING SECOND WAVE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF
FARGO..OUT OF THE AREA AND THE END OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. OVERALL THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN DECENT TODAY UNTIL 18Z AND 19Z
RUNS...WHICH KEPT HIGH POPS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOO LONG.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PULL THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER THE AREA INCREASES. A VORT
MAX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS HELPING GENERATE THE SECOND
WAVE OF PRECIP IN E CNTRL ND...WHICH CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER
BASICALLY THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BENSON
COUNTY ND TO WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY MN WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AROUND WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ELEVATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFT 03Z IN
EASTERN ND AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z...THUS EXPECT
PRECIP TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WINDS/MIXING SHOULD BE LIGHT...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
RATHER COOL...IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CNTRL
DAKOTAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS LIGHT MIXING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER WILL SPREAD PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AFT
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INDICATING DRIZZLE
AS H700 LEVEL IS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER BY 15Z PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MODEST
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER AN EARLY HIGH AROUND 50. COOLER AIR
PULLED DOWN FROM CANADA MAY HELP TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY...WINDS/MIXING DECREASE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...BRING DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA ARE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST
THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR SAGS AND HOW FAST. FOR SATURDAY THE INITIAL
BLAST WILL ONLY GRAZE OUR AREA...WITH 140KT TO 15KT 250MB JET OVER
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
FOR SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH...AS WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT. MODELS BREAK
OUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NORTH OF THIS ZONE. BASED ON 925MB
- 850 THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS LIGHT RAIN IS BEST BET.
FOR MONDAY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
LOWERING THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ON TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE...SIMILARLY PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF /
GFS/DGEX/GEM-NH...DROPS ACROSS THE CWFA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROP
TO 510DAM OR LOWER. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...925 TEMPS AROUND -10C
AND ARCTIC SCUD SUSPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR 0F QUITE POSSIBLE.
CALMER...DRIER AND UNSEASONALLY COLD WEATHER ENDS THIS PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AREAS OF -SN AND -RA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE KDVL AND
KGFK THROUGH 00Z...AND KFAR AREAS THROUGH 03Z. WINDS NORTH AROUND
10KTS TURNING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFT 00Z. MVFR WITH LCL IFR
CIG/VSBY IN -SN THROUGH 00Z BEFORE MVFR OCNLY IFR CIGS AFT 00Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL MOSTLY WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...MVFR-IFR
CLOUDS REMAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM SHERWOOD AND
BOTTINEAU SOUTHEAST THROUGH RUGBY AND HARVEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID DEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
03 UTC. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID
GET A REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM ROLLA THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN STRONG
SUBSIDENT FLOW. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. DID SEE A GUST TO 53 MPH AT GLEN ULLIN THIS
PAST HOUR. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM CST BUT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CENTRAL/5 MOUNTAIN. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER
WISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO A COLDER REGIME SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING LAKE WINNIPEG BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...AND ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY NOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS
AT 45 KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH 35 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 45 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON
BAY LOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE...WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY FROM THE 30S AND 40S...TO HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS DRY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM KISN AND KMOT...SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH KBIS
AND KJMS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS AT
KDIK IN A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AT KDIK AND KBIS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
123 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
SFC LOW NOW OVER VCNTY OF WHEATON SD...AND RAIN IS BASICALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I 94 IN SOUTHEASTERN ND THROUGH GRANT COUNTY MN. ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF W CNTRL MN. LIGHTER SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF SW MB INTO NE ND...BUT THIS WILL BRING VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
CONSIDERING THINNER CLOUDS IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID
30S (ANYTHING ADDITIONAL BY DEVILS LAKE SHOULD MELT ON IMPACT). SO
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTERNOON WILL BE TRENDING DOWN POPS
OUT OF W CNTRL MN AND ACCOUNTING FOR HIGH POP AND LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN THE NORTHWEST. 17Z HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES A MID
AFTERNOON BREAK TO THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS FOR
POPS AND WX TYPE. LATEST HRRR 925 MB 0 DEG LINE IS A REASONABLE
DELINEATOR FOR SNOW/RAIN AND WILL USE IT AS GUIDANCE FOR WX TYPE.
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SNOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF I 94 AND RAIN
SOUTH...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG
THE I 94 CORRIDOR ITSELF. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FELL OVER DEVILS LAKE
THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGIN TO MELT ON STREETS...AS WEB CAMS
WITHIN THE CITY ARE SHOWING WET ROADS. THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHWESTERN MB THAT WILL COME THROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. KEY AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND WHERE LATEST NAM AND RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A
BIT HEAVIER PRECIP (NOT MODERATE SNOW RATES...HOWEVER) ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL EXPAND INTO WEST
CNTRL MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH STILL A COUPLE OF INCHES
POSSIBLE BUT RATES NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS
HOLDING OFF PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO KEEPING RATES IN
CHECK IN AREAS OF CURRENT SNOW ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THIS ALL
REFLECTS PREV FCST THINKING WELL AND AT THE CURRENT TIME...DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE TOTALS IN THE THREE TO FIVE INCH RANGE WARRANTING AN
ADVISORY. THOSE AMOUNTS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED AND JUST NORTH OF
THE I 94 CORRIDOR IN E CNTRL ND AND W CNTRL MN...OR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND WADENA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
SURFACE LOW IS WEST OF JAMESTOWN...HEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY (SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA). LATEST
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC FIELDS...AND
INITIALIZING BEST WITH QPF AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TO THIS SOLUTION...WHICH SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH...AND INCREASED QPF TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEBCAMS FROM THE SNOW AREA INDICATE
ACCUMULATION IN THE GRASSY AREAS...WITH MOSTLY WET ROADS.
ANTICIPATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (EVEN
IF SNOWRATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER). THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
WHERE/IF SNOWRATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM ROAD
SURFACES...AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MESSAGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN GRASSY
AREAS...LESS ON ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TODAY...MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW FROM WILLISTON TO WAHPETON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND UNORGANIZED
BANDING. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
BANDING TO SET UP...AND STUCK WITH QPF ALONG THE FAVORED AREA
(DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO TO WADENA) OF 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES. USING THE
RAP 925MB 0F ISOTHERM FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE WORKING
WELL (ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DUAL POL PRODUCTS).
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM RUGBY INDICATES
FALLING SNOW...BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. GIVEN THE
WARM ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNLESS SNOWRATES ARE HEAVIER. THUS...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF
1-3 INCHES WILL BE MAINLY FOR GRASSY SURFACES...WITH LESS
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE ROADWAYS. IF THIS IS THE CASE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH IF MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION...BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH
WILL AFFECT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING AND MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP LATE THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN PRECIP IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. USING MODEL 925MB
TEMPS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY
BEGIN AND END AS SNOW).
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPS TO COME DURING EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ABUNDANTLY COLD 850 MB DROPPING TO
-15/-20C BY MON AND TUE. NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER OR HYBRID TYPE
OF SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS PREFERS A MT-SD-IA TRACK WITH
ECMWF NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE POINTS TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
AREAS OF -SN AND -RA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE
KDVL...KGFK AND KFAR AREAS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS LGT NORTH AROUND 10KTS
TUNRING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFT 00Z. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIG/VSBY
IN -SN THROUGH 00Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS POST 00Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...ME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1026 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS FOR
POPS AND WX TYPE. LATEST HRRR 925 MB 0 DEG LINE IS A REASONABLE
DELINEATOR FOR SNOW/RAIN AND WILL USE IT AS GUIDANCE FOR WX TYPE.
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SNOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF I 94 AND RAIN
SOUTH...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG
THE I 94 CORRIDOR ITSELF. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FELL OVER DEVILS LAKE
THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGIN TO MELT ON STREETS...AS WEB CAMS
WITHIN THE CITY ARE SHOWING WET ROADS. THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHWESTERN MB THAT WILL COME THROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. KEY AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND WHERE LATEST NAM AND RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A
BIT HEAVIER PRECIP (NOT MODERATE SNOW RATES...HOWEVER) ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL EXPAND INTO WEST
CNTRL MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH STILL A COUPLE OF INCHES
POSSIBLE BUT RATES NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS
HOLDING OFF PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO KEEPING RATES IN
CHECK IN AREAS OF CURRENT SNOW ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THIS ALL
REFLECTS PREV FCST THINKING WELL AND AT THE CURRENT TIME...DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE TOTALS IN THE THREE TO FIVE INCH RANGE WARRANTING AN
ADVISORY. THOSE AMOUNTS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED AND JUST NORTH OF
THE I 94 CORRIDOR IN E CNTRL ND AND W CNTRL MN...OR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND WADENA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
SURFACE LOW IS WEST OF JAMESTOWN...HEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY (SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA). LATEST
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC FIELDS...AND
INITIALIZING BEST WITH QPF AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TO THIS SOLUTION...WHICH SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH...AND INCREASED QPF TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEBCAMS FROM THE SNOW AREA INDICATE
ACCUMULATION IN THE GRASSY AREAS...WITH MOSTLY WET ROADS.
ANTICIPATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (EVEN
IF SNOWRATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER). THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
WHERE/IF SNOWRATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM ROAD
SURFACES...AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MESSAGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN GRASSY
AREAS...LESS ON ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
TODAY...MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW FROM WILLISTON TO WAHPETON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND UNORGANIZED
BANDING. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
BANDING TO SET UP...AND STUCK WITH QPF ALONG THE FAVORED AREA
(DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO TO WADENA) OF 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES. USING THE
RAP 925MB 0F ISOTHERM FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE WORKING
WELL (ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DUAL POL PRODUCTS).
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM RUGBY INDICATES
FALLING SNOW...BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. GIVEN THE
WARM ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNLESS SNOWRATES ARE HEAVIER. THUS...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF
1-3 INCHES WILL BE MAINLY FOR GRASSY SURFACES...WITH LESS
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE ROADWAYS. IF THIS IS THE CASE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH IF MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION...BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH
WILL AFFECT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING AND MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP LATE THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN PRECIP IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. USING MODEL 925MB
TEMPS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY
BEGIN AND END AS SNOW).
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPS TO COME DURING EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ABUNDANTLY COLD 850 MB DROPPING TO
-15/-20C BY MON AND TUE. NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER OR HYBRID TYPE
OF SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS PREFERS A MT-SD-IA TRACK WITH
ECMWF NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE POINTS TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF KGFK...KTVF...AND
KBJI. THESE SITES MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS...BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM KDVL THROUGH
KFAR...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT PULLING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD OVER THE SE HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
IMPROVING MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND PRECIP.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. WILL PULL THE THREAT FOR
SHRA A LITTLE FURTHER NW BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE NW AND AROUND
ERI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY TONIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE
NW...THE INCREASING COMBINATION OF FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP MAY
STILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK. GFS/MAV
LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RUC RUN SO WILL
UNDERCUT MAV POPS SOME.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SEE NO
REASON WHY WIDESPREAD RAIN WON`T OCCUR THRUT THE CWA THU INTO THU
NIGHT. INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL BY THU SO COULD BE SOME THUNDER
FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH THU NIGHT FOR ENOUGH WET
SNOW TO OCCUR TO LEAD TO A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
AREAS. LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING
UNLESS THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM.
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRI SO WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN
THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT WELL INTO FRI NIGHT SO SOME LIGHT SHSN
MAY LINGER BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP THREAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER ON
SAT. THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER FRI NIGHT SO SOME
CONCERN THAT FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR.
BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT LATER
ON SAT SO THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF AT LEAST SCT SHRA WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT SEEING
MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGEOVER TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAT
NIGHT. MAYBE SOME ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE WORST THAT
COULD HAPPEN.
EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...TEMPS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY CAN
REBOUND ENOUGH TO EVEN GET BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES EAST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY MORE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OTHER AREAS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT. AN UPPER JET WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CIRRUS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...ERIE COUNTY PA COULD HAVE BROKEN
CEILINGS NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TIMING
IS AN ISSUE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT
NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROF NOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD WITH
UNSETTLED WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOT GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THEN YET
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A
COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD EDGE IS VISIBLE LOW ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON OUT THE
WINDOW...DESPITE BEING ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY LOOKING FROM ABOVE.
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE EC COS AND MAY DISSOLVE THERE WHILE
TOTAL CLEARING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE SC/SWRN COS. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW
OVER MN/WI/LWR MI. MOISTURE CONTINUES RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE
OLD COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO
THE LWR MS VALLEY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER LATER TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW GOES OVER THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH A BIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN
TIER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO MEASURABLE
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AROUND 04Z. NAM IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
BUT SREF MEAN TIMING IS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FCST. THE RAIN MAY NOT
REACH THE FAR NRN STRIPE OF COS BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL GET REALLY
CLOSE. TEMPS MAY AGAIN HOLD VERY STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVE IN/THROUGH. AN INITIAL FALL TO
NEAR 40F IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO THE NORTH AND BROADEN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER
SC PA DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ENOUGH SUN MAKE POKE THROUGH
TO MAKE SCT SHOWERS FILL THE HOLE BACK IN. THE STABILITY LOOKS
HIGH...BUT FOR THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS IN THE AFTN WHERE NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERATE THE MEAGER-EST OF CAPES AND SOME MID- LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THE ONLY WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY IS ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THEREFORE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE
IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. QPF NOT WIDELY DISPARATE AND A
GENERAL 0.3 TO 0.8 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE. EVEN AN INCH WILL PRODUCE ALMOST NO
RIVER RESPONSE. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
RISE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING
THE STATE FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL
LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT
REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE
SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME CALM AT
MOST PLACES EARLY TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT NOW DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD A SHIELD OF
RAIN AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN SITES AND BY 09-10Z IN UNV AND IPT.
MVFR AT FIRST WILL DROP TO IFR IN BOTH CIGS AND VISBY A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE RAIN STARTS...BY 12Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IFR AND A
FEW COULD BE LIFR. BFD SHOULD BE THE LAST TERMINAL TO DROP
TO/BELOW MVFR...WHICH SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THURS. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND SCATTER THE
RAIN INTO SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NWRLY FLOW THEN KICKS IN AND UPSLOPE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH/TURN OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY IN THE LAURELS AND NC MTS /JST AND
BFD/. OTHER TERMINALS MAY HAVE ISOLD SHRA IN THE POST-STORM
FLOW...BUT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THERE WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CIG
HEIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THURS AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY 10-15KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. PM SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WRN 1/3 INTO SAT NGT. GUSTY CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A
COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD EDGE IS VISIBLE LOW ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON OUT THE
WINDOW...DESPITE BEING ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY LOOKING FROM ABOVE.
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE EC COS AND MAY DISSOLVE THERE WHILE
TOTAL CLEARING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE SC/SWRN COS. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW
OVER MN/WI/LWR MI. MOISTURE CONTINUES RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE
OLD COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO
THE LWR MS VALLEY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER LATER TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW GOES OVER THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH A BIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN
TIER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO MEASURABLE
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AROUND 04Z. NAM IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
BUT SREF MEAN TIMING IS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FCST. THE RAIN MAY NOT
REACH THE FAR NRN STRIPE OF COS BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL GET REALLY
CLOSE. TEMPS MAY AGAIN HOLD VERY STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVE IN/THROUGH. AN INITIAL FALL TO
NEAR 40F IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO THE NORTH AND BROADEN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER
SC PA DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ENOUGH SUN MAKE POKE THROUGH
TO MAKE SCT SHOWERS FILL THE HOLE BACK IN. THE STABILITY LOOKS
HIGH...BUT FOR THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS IN THE AFTN WHERE NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERATE THE MEAGER-EST OF CAPES AND SOME MID- LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THE ONLY WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY IS ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THEREFORE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE
IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. QPF NOT WIDELY DISPARATE AND A
GENERAL 0.3 TO 0.8 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE. EVEN AN INCH WILL PRODUCE ALMOST NO
RIVER RESPONSE. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
RISE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QPF...HAVE TRENDED QPF UPWARD...BUT
CONSIDERING SOME VARIANCES IN MODEL QPF...AND MESOSCALE
PROCESSES...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING OF THE WAVE...AND
ORIENTATION...HAVE RANGED FROM A 0.20 IN THE NW TO ALMOST 3/4 INCH
IN THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ANY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED SHOWERS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE INCREASED CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY... AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD INDICATING CHC POPS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR SETTING THE STAGE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME CALM AT
MOST PLACES EARLY TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT NOW DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD A SHIELD OF
RAIN AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN SITES AND BY 09-10Z IN UNV AND IPT.
MVFR AT FIRST WILL DROP TO IFR IN BOTH CIGS AND VISBY A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE RAIN STARTS...BY 12Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IFR AND A
FEW COULD BE LIFR. BFD SHOULD BE THE LAST TERMINAL TO DROP
TO/BELOW MVFR...WHICH SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THURS. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND SCATTER THE
RAIN INTO SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NWRLY FLOW THEN KICKS IN AND UPSLOPE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH/TURN OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY IN THE LAURELS AND NC MTS /JST AND
BFD/. OTHER TERMINALS MAY HAVE ISOLD SHRA IN THE POST-STORM
FLOW...BUT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THERE WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CIG
HEIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THURS AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY 10-15KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. PM SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WRN 1/3 INTO SAT NGT. GUSTY CFROPA.
SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE RAP HAS
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS
EVENING AND THEN THIS RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PAINTING A BROAD AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE ARW AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THAT
THE SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. FOR COLLABORATION REASONS...STAYED WITH THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT A BIT CONCERNED THAT THEY MAY BE TOO
HIGH FOR THESE TWO AREAS. MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE
THERE IS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...850 MB QG CONVERGENCE...WEAK
850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED. WET BULB ZEROS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUNDINGS WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR
THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29 MAY BE UP TO AN
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DPROG/DT SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHIFTED THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE COBB DATA FOR KAUW SUGGESTS BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH IN THE NAM AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GFS. MEANWHILE
IN KEAU...THERE IS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EITHER MODEL.
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 05.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A VERY
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE 05.12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GEM HAS NEARLY 0.75 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB AIR
SPILLS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
NAEFS STANDARDIZED 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF ARE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN -12 AND -16C. MEANWHILE THE GFS
HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED
SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND IT
STILL BEING ON DAY 6 AND 7...JUST STAYED WITH THE SUPER BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN INTO THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 20Z.
AS THE LOW SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW AT KRST BY
09Z AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KLSE BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR BY 00-02Z WITH KRST
SLIPPING INTO IFR/LIFR AFTER 03Z. SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS
DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15-30KT RANGE. PLAN ON MVFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS