Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/05/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
155 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM... 258 AM CST AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT. TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MDB && .LONG TERM... 258 AM CST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING. * LLWS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. * SHRA LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY PSBL DURING PERIOD OF SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RC //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SERN CONUS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A STRENGTHENING SLWY GRADIENT HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME WARMING...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION HAS WEAKENED. INCREASED MIXING IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 25KT LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LARGER SCALE INVERSION IS STILL IN PLACE AT ARND 5KFT...WHICH IS LIMITING EVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET...BUT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BACK LLWS CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH WHILE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ARND 40-45KT. THE FETCH OF SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM AN OPENING GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S NOSING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THIS MOISTURE BAND IS EXPECTED TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS SUGGEST A SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND HAVE LOWERED THE CIG/VIS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS WITH THE BAND OF PCPN. LINGERING VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT AS WINDS TURN MORE WLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. * MEDIUM/HIGH IN LLWS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. * MEDIUM IN IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM. * MEDIUM IN TIMING OF ONSET OF SHRA AND PSBL IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY AND IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. RC //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. KMD && .MARINE... 215 AM CST A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF. THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. KMD KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Area of sprinkles has mostly cleared the far southeast CWA. Ceilings in this area have been in the 11,000 foot range, so much of the radar echoes have been virga. Elsewhere, winds already gusting from 25-30 mph in some locations. Gusty winds will continue to mix down as a fair amount of sunshine will be occurring into the afternoon hours. Updated zones/grids have been sent. While little change in the daytime forecast was needed, have made some adjustments to the timing of the rain tonight based on the latest model runs. Currently is looking like a late evening arrival west of I-55, while the far southeast may actually stay dry most of the night. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that, forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied much from previous runs. While air mass will initially be quite dry today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the period: however, surface DEWPOINTS only rise into the middle to upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor. Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning. Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch. Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois, clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday. Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and overnight lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Gusty SSW winds to 25 knots or so to continue into the early evening hours. High-res models continue to point to some LLWS potential this evening and for a few hours past 06Z, ahead of an area of showers that will precede a cold front. MVFR ceilings likely to overspread the TAF sites after 06Z as the rain arrives. The front itself will slowly move across the TAF sites Tuesday morning, but will likely not reach KCMI until closer to midday. As such, the rain and lower clouds will continue there most of the morning, but some gradual improvement is expected further northwest. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
957 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM... 258 AM CST AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT. TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MDB && .LONG TERM... 258 AM CST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 15KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. * SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KREIN //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE OF 35-45 KT WINDS STILL EXISTS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. GUSTS TO THE UPPER TEENS ARE OCCASIONALLY SURFACING...BUT EXPECT SW WINDS TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-27 KT OR SO THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE EVENING. HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK UP. IF THESE SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO LOW VFR OR MVFR DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW WINDS...SHIFTING W WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION GIVEN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENT THAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE. KMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS TRENDS. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THE TERMINALS. KREIN //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. KMD && .MARINE... 215 AM CST A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF. THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. KMD KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 941 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Area of sprinkles has mostly cleared the far southeast CWA. Ceilings in this area have been in the 11,000 foot range, so much of the radar echoes have been virga. Elsewhere, winds already gusting from 25-30 mph in some locations. Gusty winds will continue to mix down as a fair amount of sunshine will be occurring into the afternoon hours. Updated zones/grids have been sent. While little change in the daytime forecast was needed, have made some adjustments to the timing of the rain tonight based on the latest model runs. Currently is looking like a late evening arrival west of I-55, while the far southeast may actually stay dry most of the night. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that, forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied much from previous runs. While air mass will initially be quite dry today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the period: however, surface DEWPOINTS only rise into the middle to upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor. Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning. Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch. Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois, clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday. Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and overnight lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. High clouds will move over the sites early this morning, but believe some CU will develop over the sites later this morning and continue into the afternoon and evening. Late tonight, the pcpn associated with the cold front will move into the area and showers will start around midnight at all sites. Appears there is not enough moisture to reduce CIGs below VFR and/or to reduce vis below 6sm. So will be adding showers around midnight at all sites, but not reduce vis or CIGs at this time. The pcpn looks to continue into the morning hours at most sites, as well. Winds will be south to southwest through the period. Was thinking about wind shear this morning, but current UA sounding, that just started was only showing 40kts from 700 to over 2KFT. With surface winds around 15mph, will not have Wind shear this morning. Gusts will increase today and continue into this evening. Once pcpn begins and winds decrease, believe wind shear is possible again. Bufkit data supports this as well, with around 50kts possible near 2KFT. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM... 258 AM CST AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT. TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MDB && .LONG TERM... 258 AM CST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z... * LLWS AT OR AROUND 2KFT AGL WITH SPEEDS NEARING 45-50KT. ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE EVENING POSSIBLE. * WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AFT DAYBREAK...INCREASING WITH SPEEDS ARND 15KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 22-26KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. * SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH CIGS POSSIBLY TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE OF 35-45 KT WINDS STILL EXISTS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. GUSTS TO THE UPPER TEENS ARE OCCASIONALLY SURFACING...BUT EXPECT SW WINDS TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-27 KT OR SO THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE EVENING. HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK UP. IF THESE SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO LOW VFR OR MVFR DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW WINDS...SHIFTING W WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION GIVEN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENT THAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE. KMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS TIMING/STRENGTH. * MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER PROBABILITIES AT THE TERMINALS. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. KMD && .MARINE... 215 AM CST A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF. THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. KMD KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 513 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that, forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied much from previous runs. While airmass will initially be quite dry today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the period: however, surface dewpoints only rise into the middle to upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor. Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning. Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch. Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois, clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday. Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and overnight lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. High clouds will move over the sites early this morning, but believe some CU will develop over the sites later this morning and continue into the afternoon and evening. Late tonight, the pcpn associated with the cold front will move into the area and showers will start around midnight at all sites. Appears there is not enough moisture to reduce cigs below VFR and/or to reduce vis below 6sm. So will be adding showers around midnight at all sites, but not reduce vis or cigs at this time. The pcpn looks to continue into the morning hours at most sites, as well. Winds will be south to southwest through the period. Was thinking about wind shear this morning, but current UA sounding, that just started was only showing 40kts from 700 to over 2kft. With surface winds around 15mph, will not have Wind shear this morning. Gusts will increase today and continue into this evening. Once pcpn begins and winds decrease, believe wind shear is possible again. Bufkit data supports this as well, with around 50kts possible near 2kft. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM... 258 AM CST AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT. TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MDB && .LONG TERM... 258 AM CST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * LLWS AT OR AROUND 2KFT AGL WITH SPEEDS NEARING 45-50KT. ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE EVENING POSSIBLE. * WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AFT DAYBREAK...INCREASING WITH SPEEDS ARND 15KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 22-26KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. * SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING BELOW 5 KFT AND POSSIBLY TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST BEING REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS ARE HOLDING JUST WEST OF SOUTH WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 12-14 KT RANGE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-22 KT. AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE OF 35-45 KT WINDS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WINDS STILL FORECAST TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND GUSTS WILL NOT ALWAYS BE SURFACING. WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR TODAY AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-26 KT OR SO THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE EVENING. HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK UP. IF THESE SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT OR LESS DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW WINDS. KMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS TIMING/STRENGTH. * MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER PROBABILITIES AT THE TERMINALS. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING. VFR CONDS DEVELOPING. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR CONDS AND MAINLY DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 215 AM CST A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF. THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. KMD KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 259 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that, forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied much from previous runs. While airmass will initially be quite dry today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the period: however, surface dewpoints only rise into the middle to upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor. Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning. Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch. Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois, clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday. Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and overnight lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 Immediate concern for the first part of the TAF period is the low level wind shear as strong near surface winds around 1000 to 1500ft are around 45 kts out of the south southwest. Soundings indicate the strong near surface winds will continue until around 15Z for PIA and SPI...16Z for BMI and DEC...and 17Z for CMI. Breezy south southwest surface winds will continue tonight into tomorrow as a tight pressure gradient remains in place with the approaching low pressure system currently over the Central Plains. Surface winds will gust between 20 to 25 kts by late morning and continue through the afternoon. A slow moving cold front will approach the terminals towards the end of the TAF period...resulting in lowering ceilings for all of the TAF sites and the chance for light rain over PIA and vicinity showers for SPI and BMI. Went ahead and kept VFR ceilings for all sites since soundings and guidance indicated as such. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION. OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER. FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TIMING OF POPS AS THREE SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN VARYING DEGREES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION. FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE GFS HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN EAST COAST. THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO MOVE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND QPF TO THE EAST AS ITS 06Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF. PREFER TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS GOING PER THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AND CONSISTENCY REASONS. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGEOVER OF ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER FEATURE WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS WITH LOW LEVEL MODEL THICKNESSES PLAYING TUG OF WAR WITH THE LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN ONES SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY BUT THEN MODELS COME INTO DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH...THEY ALL BRING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAD MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE DRIER MOISTURE FIELD OF THE ECMWF WAS LAGGING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE GFS HAS SOME QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND DO TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL THE MODELS COME TOGETHER MORE. WITH MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONLY BRIEF BREAKS...WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...SHOULD NOT SEE A HUGE DROP IN NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY LOWS IN THE 30S A GOOD BET. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT LAF AND LATER AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THEN...CU WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAF COULD SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AT THAT POINT AS RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 09Z THERE. OTHERWISE...THE AC DECK WILL BE MOVING OUT NEAR ISSUANCE TIME LEAVING BEHIND A VEIL OF CIRRUS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO 7 KNOTS OR MORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/50 SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION. OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER. FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL START OUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS WAVE...SO ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT LAF AND LATER AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THEN...CU WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAF COULD SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AT THAT POINT AS RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 09Z THERE. OTHERWISE...THE AC DECK WILL BE MOVING OUT NEAR ISSUANCE TIME LEAVING BEHIND A VEIL OF CIRRUS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO 7 KNOTS OR MORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/50 SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION. OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER. FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL START OUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS WAVE...SO ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 920 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MOVED UP GUSTS AND INCREASED THEM TO 22 KNOTS PER LATEST OBSERVATION. ALSO...KEPT AC AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT AS LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOME TAF SITES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...SO INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT KIND AND KLAF AFTER TUE 09Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BY THE END OF TAF PERIOD AS WELL...BUT WILL STILL BE AT VFR LEVEL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 11 TO 13 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/50 SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...TDUD/MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014 MAIN SFC SYSTEM JUST SW OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH THETAE ADVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KS HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER EASTERN KS. BOTH MESO SCALE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE HAVE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SHIFTING EAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BOTH EXPANDING THE SHOWERS WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN MOVING OUT THE SHOWERS BY 07Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRY MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SATURATED BY 00Z AND REMAIN SO THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z WEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 06-07Z OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THROUGH 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR BY MORNING. MIXING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP MINS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BEYOND THE MID 30S OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...MINS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014 LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO FLUCTUATE ON STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ONLY CERTAINTY IS TIMING AND SOME OF THE THERMAL TRENDS AS ALL MODELS SHOWING SUBSEQUENT PUSHES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST COMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE END AND JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...SO STILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LIKELIES GOING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THEN BRIEFLY PUSH BACK INTO THE CWA WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STRONGER WAVE THEN DIGGING INTO THE REGION FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS AGAIN REVERTING BACK TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS KIND OF BRUSHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...VERSUS THE DEEP TROUGH FROM RUNS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUIDANCE CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT/STRENGTH. DECENT PUSH OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO AGAIN COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALSO FALLING TEMPS LOOK POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FOR NOW HAVE JUST STUCK WITH ONLY SMALL DIURNAL RISES AT THIS TIME. MAIN DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE EC DIGS ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AS THE WAVE REMAINS WEAKER AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE OTHER IMPACTING MORE OF THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOVE VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C OR COLDER BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR AT LEAST A MAJOR COOL DOWN POSSIBLE...AND IF THE EC IS CORRECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...03/18Z ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...BUT ENDING SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. AS MAIN WAVE APPROACHES...SHOWERS INCREASE AND CIGS BEGIN TO DROP BY 22-03Z OVER THE AREA. BROUGHT -SHRA INTO AREA AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LOOKS MORE CERTAIN THAN EARLIER PACKAGE. TIMING OF WAVE EXPECTED TO TAKE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY 05-08Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. WINDS MIX AGAIN AFT 14-15Z TUE WITH GUSTS 15 KTS FROM WEST MOST AREAS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1147 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS, HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS. EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLOUDY SKIES AOA050. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 71 34 58 36 / 30 10 0 0 GCK 70 33 59 33 / 20 10 0 0 EHA 67 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 72 33 59 34 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 70 34 59 36 / 30 10 0 0 P28 67 41 59 36 / 60 60 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...RUSSELL AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
635 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 ...AVIATION SECTION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS, HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS. EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 SPRINKLES AND THETA-E ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY BECOME REDUCED IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH HOWEVER, STAYING IN THE VFR CATEGORY. A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT LASTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 71 34 58 36 / 30 20 0 0 GCK 69 33 59 33 / 20 10 0 0 EHA 67 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 71 33 59 34 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 70 34 59 36 / 30 20 0 0 P28 67 41 59 36 / 50 50 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...RUSSELL AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 ...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS, HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS. EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 34 58 36 / 20 20 0 0 GCK 65 32 59 33 / 20 10 0 0 EHA 64 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 69 33 59 34 / 20 10 0 0 HYS 67 34 59 36 / 20 20 0 0 P28 67 41 59 36 / 50 50 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...RUSSELL AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 ...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS, HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS. EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY EVENING, MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT DEVELOPING AS AN INTENSIFYING +130KT JET LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING CYCLING SHORTWAVES TO HELP USHER A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5C. ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY INITIALLY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN COME ABOUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER EVEN COLDER AIR DOWN INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING HIGHS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 34 58 36 / 20 20 0 0 GCK 65 32 58 34 / 10 10 0 0 EHA 64 33 57 35 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 69 33 58 34 / 20 10 0 0 HYS 67 34 58 37 / 20 20 0 0 P28 67 41 59 37 / 50 50 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...JJOHNSON AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 452 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING ZONES AND GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR RECEIVING SOME STRONGER RETURNS WITH A REPORT OF SPRINKLES OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES SOME RETURNS OVER THE FA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST THAN YESTERDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODELS LOOK A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT PLUS THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LEE/PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THIS DOES MAKE SENSE. STEADY AND GUSTY WINDS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THICKER HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. RAISED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS A RESULT. VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT LOOKS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY NOON OR SO. THEN NOT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER PLUS SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. COOLEST MAXES LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF. CONSIDERED HAVING FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IF FRONT SLOWS DOWN EVEN MORE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...THEN THAT TEMPERATURE TREND WILL NOT HAPPEN. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON LOW THETA-E LAPSE RATES. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF LIFT BELIEVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE NORTHWEST CORNER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND ACCOMPANYING MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. HOWEVER...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DID INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE WHAT CAPE THERE IS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEARLY DONE BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS MONDAY NIGHT LEADS TO A SUNNY SKY TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE BETTER 850-500MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST. RIGHT NOW DONT THINK ENOUGH FORCING AND LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. 100+ KT 250 JET NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY PUSHING THIS DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. GENERALLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEVELOP BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. ON WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY THEN CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA. UPPER HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WITH RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 3C EAST TO 11C WEST SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 30-35...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS. BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS ABOUT 3F COLDER THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECTING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM AT BEST RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...HOPEFULLY DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT ON LATER SHIFTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 7C FROM THURSDAYS FORECAST WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO 70F. NUDGED READINGS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM EXTENDED PROCEDURE AS A RESULT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRIDAYS WEATHER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING LEAVING A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY DARK. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10F COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S. SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS A BIT FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO WEST- NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. 850-500MB LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...MAYBE A BIT MORE IF THE GFS 850MB TEMPS VERIFY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME STRATUS (MVFR) FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES. CLEARING OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FS SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 ...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 AT 00Z MONDAY A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A -23C COOL POOL LOCATED OVER UTAH. A +90 KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM THE BASED OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET APPEARING TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. 850MB WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS WERE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND +7 TO +10C DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 945 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 TWEAKED POPS AND WX GRIDS BASED OFF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND AS DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY DECREASES. BOTH MENTIONED MODELS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULDN`T PROGRESS THAT MUCH MORE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL ON MONDAY AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. FORECAST CAPE FIELDS HAVE MINIMAL CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD HAVE SOME MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS STAYING IN THE 15 TO 22 MPH, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND AROUND 50 DEGREES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AFTER 7 PM FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, THEN TOWARDS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND RUN FROM NEAR HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND ELKHART BY 7 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR LIKELY FROM SAINT JOHN TO COLDWATER AND EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY EVENING, MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT DEVELOPING AS AN INTENSIFYING +130KT JET LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING CYCLING SHORTWAVES TO HELP USHER A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5C. ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY INITIALLY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN COME ABOUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER EVEN COLDER AIR DOWN INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING HIGHS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 52 68 36 58 / 20 30 30 0 GCK 50 66 33 58 / 50 20 10 0 EHA 50 65 35 57 / 50 10 10 0 LBL 51 69 36 58 / 40 20 10 0 HYS 52 66 35 58 / 10 30 20 0 P28 53 67 40 59 / 10 60 70 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SUGDEN SYNOPSIS...BURGERT SHORT TERM...KRUSE LONG TERM...JJOHNSON AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
101 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014 GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MADE THE DECISION TO GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE SOME VALLEYS WERE LOWERED 4 TO 5 DEGREES DEPENDING ON THEIR CURRENT TEMP...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WERE LOWERED AN AVERAGE OF TWO DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CURRENT LOWS. AFTER RERUNNING THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TEMP LOWERING TRENDS WERE STILL WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL END UP BOTTOMING OUT LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEED TO BE MADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEW POINTS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP FROM VERY CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE OF 50 DEGREE READINGS NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 IN THE FAR EAST. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL HAVE A MODERATE RIDGE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AS ANY ENERGY AT THE MID LEVELS STAY AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING AS COLD OR A TOUCH COLDER MONDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM CONCLUDED FOR THIS YEAR EARLIER TODAY. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AGAIN GOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND A MILDER STARTING POINT FOR THE NIGHTLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ALSO USED THE MAX AND MIN GRIDS FROM THIS BLENDED MODEL AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME MAJOR ELEVATIONALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS EACH NIGHT OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SETUP FOR FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. AS WELL AT THIS TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG A SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM TRACKS EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE FIRST WAVES TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS TRY TO FORM A COASTAL LOW WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW BOTH MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THE WAVE TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS THE SUPER BLEND MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON POPS TO START THE EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AGAIN FOR WED AND THU. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE WEAKENING OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVING STRONGER WAVE AFTERWARD PUTS NEEDED FORCING IN QUESTION. THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE DIVES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS TRACKS A DEVELOPED SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHEREAS THE EURO IS MUCH FURTHER EAST WITH A COASTAL LOW RACKING NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY FOR POPS...DID STICK WITH THE SUPER BLEND MODEL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT AVERAGE OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE CIGS AROUND 11K AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS TO GENERAL AVIATORS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
852 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SUNSHINE WE/LL SEE WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A QUITTING HITTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 852 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 I DID A QUICK EVENING UPDATE TO BETTER CAPTURE THE CLEARING TREND IN THE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUR FORECAST AREA AS OF 845 PM THIS EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE 1000 TO 3000 FT LAYER SO THAT WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE FROM FALLING NEAR A MUCH AS IT OTHERWISE WOULD GIVEN DEW POINTS FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT WE/LL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS AND SHOWS UP ON WV IMAGERY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...IT/LL DEEPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE/LL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN CWA WHERE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH SNOW. WE/LL SEE MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE ELEVATION IS A BIT HIGHER AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM AIR BELOW 900 MB FOR THE PCPN TO BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE PRIMARY FOCUS/CONCERN IS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A TURN TOWARD MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES AROUND VETERANS DAY WHICH WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POTENTIAL COLD BLAST MAY BE PRECEDED BY A SYNOPTIC RAIN/SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECENT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH... TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE GFS HAS NOT EVEN SHOWN IT. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE A STRONG SFC LOW THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW NEARBY... FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS FAR AS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST RELATED TO SHORTWAVES AND SFC COLD FRONTS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND SFC TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF U.S. 10. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE BIG ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF 05/00Z. THE HRRR/RAP AND NAM ARE ALL VERY QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BY 03Z IF THOSE MODELS ARE CORRECT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE SOLID VFR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 85 PCT RH IN THE 925 TO 850 LAYER ON THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN TRACKING BEST FROM 18Z THROUGH 23Z ON WHERE THE CLEARING SHOULD BE. I USED THAT AS MY GUIDE BUT ADDED ABOUT TWO HOURS TO THAT AS A BUFFER. I WOULD THINK WITH ALL THE DRY AIR AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WE SHOULD SEE THE CLEARING. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN THE 2000 TO 3000 FT ALG LAYER WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT. I ALLOWED THE WINDS IN THE TAFS TO DROP OFF AS THEY TYPICALLY DO AT NIGHT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS REMAIN STRONG TILL AROUND 09Z THAN START TO LET UP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE/LL LIKELY NEED A GALE WARNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUITE A BIT AS THE SFC LOW PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY TOO. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. QPF ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH HOWEVER TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
701 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED INTO THU. COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER 12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN) SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT. LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 659 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS HELPED DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KIWD. EXPECT THE PCPN AN LOWER CIGS TO ALSO SPREAD TO KCMX THIS EVENING AIDED BY WRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN. HOWEVER...MORE DOWNSLOPE WRLY FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS FROM DROPPING BELOW VFR. IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR. GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT KCMX THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR NW GALES OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
637 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SUNSHINE WE/LL SEE WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A QUITTING HITTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT WE/LL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS AND SHOWS UP ON WV IMAGERY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...IT/LL DEEPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE/LL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN CWA WHERE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH SNOW. WE/LL SEE MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE ELEVATION IS A BIT HIGHER AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM AIR BELOW 900 MB FOR THE PCPN TO BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE PRIMARY FOCUS/CONCERN IS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A TURN TOWARD MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES AROUND VETERANS DAY WHICH WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POTENTIAL COLD BLAST MAY BE PRECEDED BY A SYNOPTIC RAIN/SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECENT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH... TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE GFS HAS NOT EVEN SHOWN IT. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE A STRONG SFC LOW THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW NEARBY... FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS FAR AS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST RELATED TO SHORTWAVES AND SFC COLD FRONTS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND SFC TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF U.S. 10. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE BIG ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF 05/00Z. THE HRRR/RAP AND NAM ARE ALL VERY QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BY 03Z IF THOSE MODELS ARE CORRECT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE SOLID VFR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 85 PCT RH IN THE 925 TO 850 LAYER ON THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN TRACKING BEST FROM 18Z THROUGH 23Z ON WHERE THE CLEARING SHOULD BE. I USED THAT AS MY GUIDE BUT ADDED ABOUT TWO HOURS TO THAT AS A BUFFER. I WOULD THINK WITH ALL THE DRY AIR AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WE SHOULD SEE THE CLEARING. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN THE 2000 TO 3000 FT ALG LAYER WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT. I ALLOWED THE WINDS IN THE TAFS TO DROP OFF AS THEY TYPICALLY DO AT NIGHT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS REMAIN STRONG TILL AROUND 09Z THAN START TO LET UP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE/LL LIKELY NEED A GALE WARNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUITE A BIT AS THE SFC LOW PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY TOO. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. QPF ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH HOWEVER TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA. TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT. TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH) AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70 PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN... PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN. SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE. LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH) AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70 PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1251 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN... PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN. SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE. LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS. STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR 30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO -3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE 6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN THE HWO. THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN... PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN. SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE. LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS. STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR 30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO -3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE 6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN THE HWO. THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TODAY AS DRY AIR LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES E...REACHING WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR DURING THE EVENING AND THEN TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN... PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN. SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE. LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS. STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR 30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO -3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE 6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN THE HWO. THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL EVENING AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WAA AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE INFLOW INCREASES THIS EVENING...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Today - Tonight: Main challenges during this period will center on precipitation timing and amounts and effects of clouds/rain on temperatures. Satellite imagery shows a triple vorticity structure within an elongated positively tilted upper trough stretching from south central Canada through the Desert Southwest. While all of the individual vorticity maxima will miss the CWA the strengthening southwesterly jet aloft, emanating from the base of the upper trough, will enhance the lift resulting in increasing shower coverage across the Central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Initially, the showers will be rather spotty due to the limited low-level moisture return. HRRR qpf trend best supports the NAM and LSX WRF output with widely scattered showers through this afternoon. However, expect the showers to become rather numerous as the left front quad of the approaching jet max noses into the region. Operational models in general agreement on this evolution although the GFS and ECMWF have been a bit more north and west with the precipitation. Have generally leaned more on the NAM and LSX WRF which highly favor best rain chances south of the MO River and geared more towards this evening. Can`t rule out a few random rumbles of thunder late this afternoon and evening but instability, both elevated and surface base instability remain puny as noted in individual soundings. The elevated mixed layer will be the primary deterrent. Winds will remain strong and gusty until cold frontal passage later this evening although as clouds thicken late this afternoon the deeper mixing will cease so winds should weaken some. Tuesday - Thursday: Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster with below average readings on Tuesday and Thursday with dry conditions for the most part. Weak Pacific high pressure will press eastward with the passage of Monday night`s cold front. While cold air advection will be muted the CWA will likely have to contend with a considerable amount of high level cloud cover streaming northeastward from the baggy southern end of the upper trough. By Wednesday northwest flow aloft will move into the region with a clipper type system diving southeast with a rapidly developing surface low tracking north of the CWA. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the CWA. However, some light showers or sprinkles could affect the northeast quarter of the CWA Wednesday night. Backing surface winds on Wednesday should allow temperatures to rebound to normal or slightly warmer. Thursday is looking quite cool with increasing northwest winds allowing for strong cold air advection. Medium range models have been trending colder last couple of runs and won`t be surprised if future forecasts need to further lower high temperatures. Will also probably see sub-freezing lows Friday morning. Friday - Sunday: Below average temperatures will likely continue as northwest flow aloft brings another fast moving upper system southeast Friday night and Saturday with another surge of cold air advection. Like Wednesday`s clipper system expect to see a good deal of cloud cover and scattered very light showers and/or sprinkles finding their way into northern parts of the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1116 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Mid lvl clouds around 10-12kft will be the rule through the afternoon hours before bkn-ovc clouds btn 3-4kft moves into the terminals this evening. Expect lgt shra to overspread the terminals btn 01Z-02Z out ahead of an approaching cold front. Vis restrictions are not expected with -shra however cigs may drop into MVFR cat. FROPA will veer SSW winds around to the NW around 10kts btn 06Z-07Z. Expect cigs to quickly lift back to VFR conds behind the front around 09Z. VFR conds will then cont thru the duration of the TAF pd. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 Today - Tonight: Main challenges during this period will center on precipitation timing and amounts and effects of clouds/rain on temperatures. Satellite imagery shows a triple vorticity structure within an elongated positively tilted upper trough stretching from south central Canada through the Desert Southwest. While all of the individual vorticity maxima will miss the CWA the strengthening southwesterly jet aloft, emanating from the base of the upper trough, will enhance the lift resulting in increasing shower coverage across the Central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Initially, the showers will be rather spotty due to the limited low-level moisture return. HRRR qpf trend best supports the NAM and LSX WRF output with widely scattered showers through this afternoon. However, expect the showers to become rather numerous as the left front quad of the approaching jet max noses into the region. Operational models in general agreement on this evolution although the GFS and ECMWF have been a bit more north and west with the precipitation. Have generally leaned more on the NAM and LSX WRF which highly favor best rain chances south of the MO River and geared more towards this evening. Can`t rule out a few random rumbles of thunder late this afternoon and evening but instability, both elevated and surface base instability remain puny as noted in individual soundings. The elevated mixed layer will be the primary deterrent. Winds will remain strong and gusty until cold frontal passage later this evening although as clouds thicken late this afternoon the deeper mixing will cease so winds should weaken some. Tuesday - Thursday: Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster with below average readings on Tuesday and Thursday with dry conditions for the most part. Weak Pacific high pressure will press eastward with the passage of Monday night`s cold front. While cold air advection will be muted the CWA will likely have to contend with a considerable amount of high level cloud cover streaming northeastward from the baggy southern end of the upper trough. By Wednesday northwest flow aloft will move into the region with a clipper type system diving southeast with a rapidly developing surface low tracking north of the CWA. Most of the precipitation will remain north of the CWA. However, some light showers or sprinkles could affect the northeast quarter of the CWA Wednesday night. Backing surface winds on Wednesday should allow temperatures to rebound to normal or slightly warmer. Thursday is looking quite cool with increasing northwest winds allowing for strong cold air advection. Medium range models have been trending colder last couple of runs and won`t be surprised if future forecasts need to further lower high temperatures. Will also probably see sub-freezing lows Friday morning. Friday - Sunday: Below average temperatures will likely continue as northwest flow aloft brings another fast moving upper system southeast Friday night and Saturday with another surge of cold air advection. Like Wednesday`s clipper system expect to see a good deal of cloud cover and scattered very light showers and/or sprinkles finding their way into northern parts of the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1126 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the overnight hours. Strong and gusty southerly winds will persist through the night also, and eventually transport enough moisture into the region to push CIGs lower as showers begin to develop. Lower clouds and scattered showers will likely begin moving in and developing by the late morning hours, with widespread showers developing during the mid- afternoon hours. Confidence in lowering CIGs or restricting visibility is rather low this far out, so have kept conditions in the MVFR range for now. Otherwise, expect the strong and gusty wind to prevail through the this TAF cycle until the weak front moves through late Monday night, likely only effecting the KSTJ terminal before the end of this TAF cycle. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 CLOUDY AND MILD THE REST OF THE NIGHT. REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE SHORT-TERM. RADAR RETURNS ARE ALL FROM MID-LVLS CIGS. SO "IF" ANYTHING IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IT`S SPRINKLES. REFLECTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN DIMINISHING AS RETURNS MOVE INTO DRY AIR. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT MAY BACK DOWN FCST WORDING FROM SHWRS TO SPRINKLES BEFORE SUNRISE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 7 DEGREES. SOUTH BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL AS SOME FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS TO HELP TEMPERATURES STAY UP. WENT CLOSER TO HRRR TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 QUIET...BUT BREEZY...CONDITIONS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGING REMAINING AN INFLUENCE...WITH THE MAIN AXIS SLIDING FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW. A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST/GULF REGIONS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN THOSE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. NO NOTABLE SURPRISES WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOOKING TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAIN STORY LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTED A LOT GOING ON THIS EVENING...BUT ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A HEFTY LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 50+ KTS POSSIBLE. INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...KEPT POPS LOW AS MODELS ARENT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF PLACEMENT...AND DID INCREASE THEIR COVERAGE TO THE W/NWRN CWA WHERE MODELS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...THE LLJ TAPERS OFF...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TAKING OVER THE MAIN DRIVER OF LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN POPS ESP DURING THE MORNING IS NOT THE GREATEST...AS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH BY MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY LOCATED IN A NE TO SW ORIENTATION RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA...THEN CONTINUING ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS IN THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE. DECIDED TO HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. AGAIN CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...AND NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS BECAUSE INSTABILITY...BUT MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SO COULD GET A FEW SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER/LIGHTNING STRIKES. DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE FOR TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...AND HAVE A BLEND OF MODELS/GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID 60S IN THE SE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AS THE RESPONSIBLE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THEN LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...FOCUSING SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...COULD SEE SOME COOLER AIR WORK IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS COOLER AIR IS FORCED SOUTH WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST. HENCE...WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT IN QUESTION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN COOLER AIR TO THE EAST...AND WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE GENERALLY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. OTHER THAN THE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS GRADUALLY DESCENDING TO AROUND 10K FT. A COUPLE SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. LLWS IS IN PROGRESS AND WILL CONT THRU 08Z. S WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH MON: VFR MID-LVL CIGS TO START...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO INVADE. NOT ALL GUIDANCE HAS IT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY IN THE LOW-LVLS. THE CLOSEST MVFR CIGS ARE OVER W TX. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS EAR/GRI IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME WITH A WSHFT TO NW. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 24 KTS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHWRS INCREASES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MVFR CIGS AND TIMING OF SHWRS. MON EVE: ANY SHWRS EXIT 02Z-03Z WITH RETURN TO VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...ROSSI AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT OR GREATER. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE UPPER TROF TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT 12 HRS. BEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF A KTCS TO KTCC LINE. LOCAL IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS AREA WITH MT OBSCURATIONS TO PERSIST. COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS AFT 00Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND INTO THE RGV AFT 03Z. AN AREA OF MT TOP TO MID LIVEL CLOUDINESS COULD DEVELOP 03Z-08Z OVER CENTRAL NM AS WELL BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 04/18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 26 53 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 21 54 18 60 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 24 52 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 20 54 18 62 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 22 51 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 22 53 17 59 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 24 52 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 28 63 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 17 50 18 57 / 10 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 50 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 27 48 27 57 / 10 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 50 16 57 / 5 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 17 41 13 49 / 20 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 47 9 55 / 20 5 0 0 TAOS............................ 23 51 18 57 / 5 0 0 0 MORA............................ 24 47 22 58 / 20 5 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 29 55 22 63 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 28 49 29 57 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 52 29 60 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 53 32 61 / 10 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 55 36 63 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 57 27 65 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 57 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 30 57 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 32 56 32 64 / 5 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 34 59 33 66 / 10 5 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 51 29 58 / 10 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 32 52 31 60 / 10 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 54 24 62 / 10 5 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 47 28 60 / 10 10 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 51 30 59 / 20 10 5 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 36 54 31 62 / 40 20 5 0 RUIDOSO......................... 32 50 28 60 / 50 30 10 0 CAPULIN......................... 24 51 23 58 / 5 0 0 0 RATON........................... 25 52 25 62 / 5 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 26 53 24 63 / 5 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 24 48 25 61 / 5 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 30 54 35 65 / 5 0 0 0 ROY............................. 29 52 31 64 / 5 5 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 36 57 32 68 / 10 5 5 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 35 53 32 66 / 10 10 5 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 37 57 30 69 / 20 20 10 0 CLOVIS.......................... 37 50 34 65 / 60 40 20 5 PORTALES........................ 39 50 33 65 / 60 40 30 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 39 54 32 66 / 40 30 20 5 ROSWELL......................... 47 57 34 65 / 60 40 30 5 PICACHO......................... 39 50 32 62 / 60 40 20 5 ELK............................. 36 48 32 58 / 60 40 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-532-533. HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ518. && $$ 52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 .AVIATION... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO IFR RANGES BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND BEFORE 031200 IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY...MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/ UPDATE... FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE AFTER 12Z BEFORE SHOWERS FINALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH RAP AND HRRR DO HINT AT SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 5Z-10Z TIME FRAME. EITHER WAY... SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/ AVIATION... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO IFR RANGES BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND BEFORE 031800 IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY...MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/ DISCUSSION... STRONG SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE FA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 69 51 60 / 10 50 90 50 HOBART OK 53 69 49 60 / 10 60 80 30 WICHITA FALLS TX 53 72 56 61 / 10 40 80 70 GAGE OK 52 70 40 60 / 20 60 70 10 PONCA CITY OK 51 68 48 59 / 10 60 90 20 DURANT OK 48 72 59 64 / 0 20 70 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE MOUNTAIN PEEKS AOA 6000 FEET ACROSS THE CASCADES AND AOA 6500 FT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE CASCADES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED TERRAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN..AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. AS THIS WESTERLY WIND SETS UP...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF THE CASCADES WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE HELD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVELS AS WELL AS BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BIEDA .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT/SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH THE FRONT AND DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN 5-8 10 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE RIDGE THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. COONFIELD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS 500MB HEIGHTS AVERAGE 576DM OVER THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED AND A POSSIBLE COLD POOL/INVERSION FORMING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF ALLOWING A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 03/12Z ECMWF WHICH WOULD BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE QUICKLY INTO NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...STRONGER WINDS AND A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO MONDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +10C ON SUNDAY TO +2C BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO ALSO FALL TO 6000 - 7000 FEET. MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE BASIN FOG EVENTS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG SEASON. MURPHY && .AVIATION...0Z TAFS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY 0-14Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER 5-8 KFT OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDLS 9-13Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS UNTIL 15Z THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. 76 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 48 63 48 64 / 70 70 10 10 ALW 50 63 49 64 / 70 70 10 20 PSC 50 65 49 62 / 80 50 10 10 YKM 45 60 44 57 / 80 40 10 20 HRI 49 65 49 64 / 70 60 10 10 ELN 44 58 42 55 / 90 50 10 20 RDM 42 59 41 65 / 70 40 20 10 LGD 41 53 42 59 / 80 80 20 10 GCD 41 54 41 61 / 70 80 20 10 DLS 50 62 50 64 / 80 60 20 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON $$ 98/76/77/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
206 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE MOUNTAIN PEEKS AOA 6000 FEET ACROSS THE CASCADES AND AOA 6500 FT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE CASCADES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED TERRAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN..AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. AS THIS WESTERLY WIND SETS UP...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF THE CASCADES WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE HELD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVELS AS WELL AS BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BIEDA .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT/SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH THE FRONT AND DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN 5-8 10 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE RIDGE THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. COONFIELD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS 500MB HEIGHTS AVERAGE 576DM OVER THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED AND A POSSIBLE COLD POOL/INVERSION FORMING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF ALLOWING A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 03/12Z ECMWF WHICH WOULD BRING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE QUICKLY INTO NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...STRONGER WINDS AND A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO MONDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +10C ON SUNDAY TO +2C BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO ALSO FALL TO 6000 - 7000 FEET. MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE BASIN FOG EVENTS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG SEASON. MURPHY && .AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. SPOTTY RAIN WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 4-10KFT OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS...LOWERING 3-6KFT OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS UNTIL 15Z THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 76 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 48 63 48 64 / 70 70 10 10 ALW 50 63 49 64 / 70 70 10 20 PSC 50 65 49 62 / 80 50 10 10 YKM 45 60 44 57 / 80 40 10 20 HRI 49 65 49 64 / 70 60 10 10 ELN 44 58 42 55 / 90 50 10 20 RDM 42 59 41 65 / 70 40 20 10 LGD 41 53 42 59 / 80 80 20 10 GCD 41 54 41 61 / 70 80 20 10 DLS 50 62 50 64 / 80 60 20 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON $$ 98/76/77/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
407 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWRN CANADA...WHICH WAS SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TNGT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TNGT THERE WILL ONLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS NWRN SD INTO THE BLKHLS AND EXTREME NERN WY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP MIX DOWN WINDS OF 35-45 KT...RESULTING IN WIND ADVY CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN SD PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECENT LACK OF PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DUST POLLUTION ALERT FOR WEST RAPID CITY. THE MAIN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ACROSS ND...AND THE TIMING OF THE MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA WINDS TO BE ACHIEVED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SUNDAY LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE NICE WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WITH SUBSEQUENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN...BUT THEN WARMUP APPEARS AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH FOR SUNDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS INSIST ON MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK AND SOME GROUND-WHITENING SNOW FOR MONDAY. 12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR OR SNOW...SHUNTING CORE OF COLD AIR EAST OF CWA WITH UPPER TROUGH MUCH FURTHER EAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COLDER THAN OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT WARMER THAN ECMWF. THICKNESS DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY FOR CONTRASTING RUNS ABOUT 250M. HAVE FOLLOWED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW UP IN LATER LONG TERM GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 406 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ TO 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ043-046-047-049. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ013-014-025- 026-031-032-072-073. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BUNKERS LONG TERM...HELGESON AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
401 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND. PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA. ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND THURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 359 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 LINGERING MVFR CIGS DUE TO -SHRA WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BUNKERS LONG TERM...55 AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND. PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA. ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND THURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP. && .AVIATION...UPDATE FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014 BAND OF RAIN SHWRS LINGERING OVER SCNTRL SD WL CONT TO MOV EASTWARD THIS AFTN. MID LVL CIGS WL CONTINUE ACRS MUCH OF WRN SD THIS AFTN...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS W/ THE PRECIP. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT W/ GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS PLAINS WL DCRS BY EARLY EVEN...SHIFTING TO THE SW IN NERN WY OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLR SKIES AND LGT WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TUES MRNG. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BUNKERS LONG TERM...55 AVIATION...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1017 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SWRN SD AND ALSO TO ADD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z KUNR SOUNDING...SUGGESTED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FROM ASCENT TO REACH THE WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE HIGHER-ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE SEEING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT- TERM PROGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 THE UPPER ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A 80-90KT JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM SW-NE. THE SFC CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN INTO NERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BUT RELATIVELY STRONG AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTN. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 BAND OF RAIN SHWRS OVER SCNTRL SD WL CONT TO MOV EASTWARD THIS AFTN...MIXED W/ SNW OVR PINE RIDGE AREA. MID LVL CIGS WL CONTINUE ACRS MUCH OF WRN SD THIS AFTN...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE PRECIP. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT W/ GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS THE NW AND W CNTRL SD PLAINS WL DCRS BY EARLY EVEN. MSTLY CLR SKIES AND LGT WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TUES MRNG. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BUNKERS SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
919 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SWRN SD AND ALSO TO ADD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z KUNR SOUNDING...SUGGESTED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FROM ASCENT TO REACH THE WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE HIGHER-ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE SEEING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT- TERM PROGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 THE UPPER ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A 80-90KT JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM SW-NE. THE SFC CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN INTO NERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BUT RELATIVELY STRONG AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTN. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING ISSUED AT 428 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...INCLUDING KRAP...DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BUNKERS SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 .AVIATION... VFR LOOKS TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW GIVEN THE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THICKER HIGH CLOUDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014/ SHORT TERM... RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PULL QUITE A BIT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE OVER THE REGION WHICH IS RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HARDEST PART WAS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WERE CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER OUT WAY TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF BOTH KEEP A THICK LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING/EVOLVING...OPTED TO GO WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE HAD A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME READINGS AT 33 DEGREES AROUND FRIONA AND MULESHOE SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT FEEL THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED FOR NOW. WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT BACKWARDS FROM OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH AS INSOLATION IS USED TO EVAPORATE ANY SURFACE MOISTURE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SO NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A LIGHT WIND ALL DAY AND LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM MORE THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. JORDAN LONG TERM... THE UA LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS PROVIDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WILL SHEAR OUT WHILST SKIRTING SSE TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEREFORE START OFF DRY AS AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PROMOTES DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MORE OR LESS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE DRY COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR/AT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SFC RIDGE WITH HINTS OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LEADING TO A PROJECTED STRONGER AND BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/...IN COMPARISON TO TOMORROW NIGHT/S FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL BRING ABOUT THE RETURN OF BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...HENCE REBOUNDING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS COLD FRONT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...WITH CURRENT ITERATIONS SHOWING EITHER A STOUT SFC RIDGE DRIVING IN A BREEZY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE ECMWF/ OR A WEAKER FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE GFS/. A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS APPEARS APPROPRIATE ATTM...THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND BELOW NORM TEMPS ARE VALID. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 33 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 36 63 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 37 61 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 38 59 36 64 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 39 60 38 65 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 40 59 36 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 40 59 37 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 42 65 43 68 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 SPUR 41 62 41 67 42 / 20 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 42 61 40 68 43 / 50 10 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1053 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014 DISCUSSION... See Aviation Discussion below. AVIATION... Tricky situation next 24 hours, as the upper-lvl trough approaches West Texas/SE NM. VFR conditions remain all terminals, and latest NAM buffer soundings persist in developing LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys everywhere but KFST overnight, beginning around issuance time at KHOB. The latest HRRR suggests these conditions will be possible KHOB/KMAF, but otherwise keep lwr cigs/vsbys east of the area. However, current KMAF VWP shows the LLJ already up to 35kt, and forecast to peak at 50+kts overnight. This, combined w/abundant high cloud to retard radiational cooling, suggests cigs/vsbys will be somewhat better than what buffer soundings suggest. Current TAFs keep MVFR or better for the next 24 hours, and we`ll keep them there or above attm. Conditions should improve to VFR all terminals by around 18Z Monday. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014/ DISCUSSION... The main focus this forecast period continues to be a deep trough currently over the western CONUS which will move through our region over the next couple of days, and associated precipitation chances. Models continue to be in good agreement regarding the progressive nature of the aforementioned trough, which will develop an increasingly positive tilt as it moves toward the central CONUS. Persistent, deep southwesterly flow will allow for continued moisture transport ahead of the system, ultimately resulting in precipitable water values of roughly 1.00" to 1.20" across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico per model soundings. While precipitation chances tonight are highest over higher terrain, Monday through Tuesday will see the chance for precipitation overspread the rest of the area. Model soundings for Monday afternoon indicate the presence of weak elevated CAPE, and given ample ascent under the right entrance region of an upper level jet rounding the base of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. While the current threat of severe weather is marginal, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms that develop, and localized flash flooding may be a concern, especially if training occurs. The Monday night through Tuesday time frame still looks to be the best window of opportunity for widespread measurable rainfall from this system as the dynamics of the advancing trough combine with a cold front that is progged to move south through the area. Precipitation will then be shunted further to the south and east as drier air filters in behind the front, with dry conditions expected from Wednesday evening onward. Temperatures Tuesday will drop well below normal due to the aforementioned front, resulting in very little diurnal recovery as highs will top out in the middle 50s to low 60s. Surface high pressure will sink southward through the plains and into North Texas by Thursday into Friday, resulting in winds veering to the south as temperatures slowly moderate back toward normal. Both the GFS and ECMWF currently indicate another shortwave dropping south on the back side of the trough, which could drag another cold front through the area on Saturday, though a lack of available moisture would preclude any mention of precipitation. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 44 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
545 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE MOSTLY LEVELED OFF FURTHER WEST. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO THE WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY AREAS BUT CLOUDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP FURTHER NORTH. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 29 ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO ENTER NW WISCONSIN. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AT DULUTH WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE VILAS COUNTY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP TRENDS ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY SPOTTY RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARGUE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE FURTHER NORTH DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE LOW OVERCAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TRYING TO TIME THE CLEARING IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATE...SO THINK THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE AND A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN ZONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SINCE EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLAKES RIGHT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER SO LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE TWO TO SEVEN DAY PERIOD OCCURS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES IN...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WI. GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS WHIP THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI IN ABOUT 6-8 HOURS WHILE THE NAM DAWDLES 2-4 HOURS LONGER. OTHER THAN TIMING...THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...SREF PLUMES INDICATE ABOUT 0.2" LIQUID ACCUMULATION AT GRB WITH ABOUT 1/2" SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD ON THURS. WPC 1640Z 2-DAY WINTER PRECIP HIGHLIGHTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WI. ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER LIGHT SHOT OF MIXED PRECIP. FINALLY...A THIRD CLIPPER APPROACHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON ANY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF GENERATES AN IMPRESSIVE FOLLOWING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY LATE MONDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 VFR CIGS OF 4000 TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......MVL AVIATION.......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014 THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST WEST AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION...TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. THOUGH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM THIS EVENING OVER IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN EXIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT LINGERS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A POTENT BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. BUT CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER DRYING HOLDS FIRM. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014 PCPN CHANCES AND TYPE WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION... ONE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A COUPLE SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE WED-THU CLIPPER SYSTEM...AS THEY HAVE A SIMILAR SFC LOW TRACK (THRU SOUTHERN WI) AND TIMING. PCPN WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDDAY...THEN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NC/FAR NE/C WI ON WEDS NGT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. MIXED RAIN/SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NC/FAR NE WI...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMS. THE GFS IS INITIALLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND WOULD SUPPORT LESS SNOW ACCUMS THAN THE ECMWF. THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDL SNOW ACCUMS AND A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SUPPORT A COUPLE SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ATTM. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESSS... IT LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE BY THIS TIME. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND SHOWERS END LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1144 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS IS GENERATING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LOWER DECK DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN AS LOWER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO SIGN OF THIS OCCURRING UPSTREAM AND 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL RATHER LARGE BASED ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS. WILL BRING IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL ANOTHER PUSH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVES LATE. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND. LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. MONDAY...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THOUGH PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT SUPER DRY THOUGH...AND ANY SHOWERS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP TO THE GROUND. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE DRY AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF PRECIP FOR THE MORNING BUT CHANCES WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT SATURATION AND BEING POSITIONED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET. WARMER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT A LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE THE MODELS. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST AND STRONGEST AND PRODUCES THE MOST PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SOMEWHERE IN WISCONSIN. BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014 VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. COULD BE SCT MVFR CIGS AFTER 21Z OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS SITES AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. $$ && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
914 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 841 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING WITHIN THE BAND OF PRECIP NOW SITUATED FROM ALLIANCE TO KIMBALL AND STEADILY MOVING EAST. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE...AS WELL AS ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER AS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN THE BAND. COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE THUNDERSNOW. ACROSS WYOMING...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BAND...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO MIX RAIN WITH THE SNOW ABOVE 5500 FT...AND LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S TONIGHT. ICY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS TEMPS DROP AND RAIN/SLUSH FREEZES ONTO ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A 120 KT H25 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO EASTERN CO. A SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...FROM ABOUT LUSK TO CHADRON AT 12Z. PCPN BANDING ALREADY OCCURRING PER THE CYS RADAR LOOP FROM CHEYENNE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GOSHEN COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW SWATH OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPVS BENEATH LARGER SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO THE AREA. GFS AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE H25 JET THROUGH 18Z...SO EXPECT STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDING SNOW. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH INTO GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTIES...BUT THINK TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THERE AS LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND TOR ARE STILL SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THE ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH 18Z. MODEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...SO THE MAIN PUSH OF SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY THEN. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS INTO CHEYENNE FOR POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS. VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH PERIODS OF HIGHER RATES AT OUR OFFICE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BELIEVE WE ARE SEEING ENOUGH INITIAL MELTING TO KEEP US IN ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IT COULD BE QUITE CLOSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTN. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE LINE...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOOKS A BIT WARM OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WET BULB COOLING COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE PANHANDLE SITES BASED ON NAM SOUNDING PROFILES. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR EXPECTED SNOW DEPTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROBABLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR LARAMIE LOWS TONIGHT AS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE AND WED. LATEST PROGS WOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF A RATHER POTENT JET STREAK SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 OR 60 METERS AROUND 00Z WED ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H7. BUMPED UP WINDS AT ARL GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY COOL WEEK AHEAD...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS STAY IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE THROUGH WED...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO 50S AT THE SURFACE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS STATES THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...A UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 850MB CRAIG-CASPER GRADIENT INCREASES TO 50M WITH 700MB WINDS PROGGED NEAR 40KT ACROSS THE GAP WIND LOCALES OF SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH. WESTERN NE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY BUT COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 30MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING MARKED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SATURDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TODAY. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112- 114. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ115>118. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RJM SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...MJ FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
523 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A 120 KT H25 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO EASTERN CO. A SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...FROM ABOUT LUSK TO CHADRON AT 12Z. PCPN BANDING ALREADY OCCURRING PER THE CYS RADAR LOOP FROM CHEYENNE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GOSHEN COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW SWATH OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPVS BENEATH LARGER SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO THE AREA. GFS AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE H25 JET THROUGH 18Z...SO EXPECT STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDING SNOW. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH INTO GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTIES...BUT THINK TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THERE AS LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND TOR ARE STILL SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THE ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH 18Z. MODEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...SO THE MAIN PUSH OF SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY THEN. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS INTO CHEYENNE FOR POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS. VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH PERIODS OF HIGHER RATES AT OUR OFFICE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BELIEVE WE ARE SEEING ENOUGH INITIAL MELTING TO KEEP US IN ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IT COULD BE QUITE CLOSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTN. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE LINE...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOOKS A BIT WARM OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WET BULB COOLING COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE PANHANDLE SITES BASED ON NAM SOUNDING PROFILES. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR EXPECTED SNOW DEPTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROBABLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR LARAMIE LOWS TONIGHT AS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE AND WED. LATEST PROGS WOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF A RATHER POTENT JET STREAK SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 OR 60 METERS AROUND 00Z WED ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H7. BUMPED UP WINDS AT ARL GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY COOL WEEK AHEAD...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS STAY IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE THROUGH WED...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO 50S AT THE SURFACE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS STATES THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...A UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 850MB CRAIG-CASPER GRADIENT INCREASES TO 50M WITH 700MB WINDS PROGGED NEAR 40KT ACROSS THE GAP WIND LOCALES OF SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH. WESTERN NE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY BUT COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 30MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING MARKED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SATURDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TODAY. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112- 114. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ115>118. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...MJ FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
1033 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 .UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEW NAM/GFS HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW UP TO CASPER MOUNTAIN AND EVEN INTO CASPER TOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR EARLIER WAS BULLISH THERE TOO...BUT 04Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON PCPN. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HRRR LOOKS LATER ON. HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY AND FAR EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY THROUGH 12Z AND WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ADJUST AS NEEDED. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT) A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER A MAINLY DRY NIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL. ALL THE MODELS NOW ONLY HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SO WE TRIMMED ALL POPS BACK TO ISOLATED BEFORE 18Z. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST UPSLOPE AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A 110 KNOT JET STREAK MOVES IN. THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE WILL MAKE EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE GUSTY BREEZE WITH THE TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR NOVEMBER IN WYOMING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE. LIGHTER SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHUT OFF ANY INSTABILITY. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS FOR THAT PERIOD AS WELL. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO ALL AREAS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN MOVES TOWARDS WYOMING FOR FRIDAY. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND QPF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. ANOTHER TRANSITORY RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER...MORE POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM MAY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING DIFFERENCES SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/ WEST OF THE DIVIDE KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 16Z OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE THE TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY WIND WILL OCCUR AT KRKS/KPNA/KBPI FROM ABOUT 17Z MONDAY UNTIL 01Z TUE. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES FROM FAR EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY TO THE KCPR AIRPORT...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE SNOW ENDS THE CEILINGS RISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE REST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...C.BAKER LONG TERM...HATTINGS AVIATION...AR FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1021 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 TODAY WAS A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS PEAKED IN THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS OUT WEST...WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AS PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT ONLY 2MB/6HR. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS IN COMBINATION WITH FUTURE TRENDS OFF NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP ALL THAT MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH FREEZING TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY OCCUR ABOVE 5000 FT AND MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN FOR AREAS BELOW 7500 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THIS TIME. ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS...THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT LOOKING TO BE ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK AND A MIXED PRECIP TYPE CONTINUING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER...WITH ALL RAIN FURTHER EAST. TEMPS SHOULD STAY COOL IN THE MORNING WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...WITH A SLOW RISE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP DIMINISHES AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK. REGARDING EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW TOTALS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS IS...WITH A SLIGHT TREND UPWARD IN ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT OBS AND MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM OVERALL WITH 120 KT JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER NM/AZ/CO. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE NIGHT. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET THIS EVENING OVER THE CO/KS/NE BORDER...WHICH WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. INITIAL EAST- NORTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDED BOOST OF UPSLOPE FORCING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WITHIN THE LARAMIE VALLEY. NAM SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THESE FORCING ELEMENTS IN PLACE...FELT OK IN BUMPING UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...PARTICULARLY WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WYOMING PLAINS. IN PARTICULAR...AREAS FROM THE LARAMIE VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH LARAMIE COUNTY SHOULD SEE DECENT ACCUMULATIONS WITH 4 TO 7 IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD BE A CONSERVATIVE NUMBER IF TEMPS COOL OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENT THINKING OR IF THE SYSTEM IN GENERAL SLOWS IN SPEED WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE IF THE JET STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH MORE THAN CURRENT MODELS SHOW. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS SO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTRYCONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA. THUS WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...AND INTERSTATE 25 ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW TOTALS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHTER...BUT AGAIN WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHETHER TEMPS COOL OFF ENOUGH DURING PEAK FORCING. COULD SEE A GOOD STEADY RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THAT DONT CHANGE TO SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 ON TUESDAY...WIND WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR AS A 40 TO 50 KT 700 MB JETMAX CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ANOTHER RE- ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING SOUTH ON A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM MIDWEEK LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...SO WE CONTINUE TO CARRY NO POPS WITH IT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT WE CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS PICK UP BY LATE WEEK AGAIN GIVING US A BIT OF A WARMUP LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 LATEST HRRR FORECAST WAS USED ON THE 06Z TAFS. HAVE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...SPREADING INTO KCYS BY 09Z. LOWER CONDITIONS FOR THE PANHANDLE AIRPORTS WITH MOST AREAS GOING DOWN AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE A LONG DURATION LOW CEILING/VSBY EVENT LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014 NO CHANGES OR UPDATES REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR SETTLING IN PLACE...SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. MOSTLY RAIN LIGHT SNOW MIX EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS). PLEASE SEE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SNOW IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT MSL...AS DOES FRIDAY. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ115>118. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJM LONG TERM...JG AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... 07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE DIPPING INTO STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...A CURRENTLY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW OVER MONTANA WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS INTO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LOW ENERGY LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND UP THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE IS BEING CUT DOWN BY THE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER OUR HEADS THROUGH THE DURATION OF TODAY. THE MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS PER 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE AND NWP TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS PLOTS. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE... GENERALLY BELOW 800MB...WITH A DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROP...AND THEN HIGH MOISTURE AGAIN TOWARD THE UPPER TROP (ABOVE 300-400MB). CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...ELONGATED 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GA/SC EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...HELPING TO RESUPPLY THE LOWER LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SEASONABLE...WITH MAINLY 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... TODAY AND TONIGHT... A PLEASANT...DRY...AND WARM EARLY NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. STACKED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION HELPING TO NOT ONLY KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE...BUT ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING ON EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN PERIOD OF SCT STRATOCU THIS MORNING AND CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME HIGHER LEVEL...BUT THIN CIRRUS STREAMS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. OUR REGION HAS BEEN MIXING UP TO 850-800MB THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY. THIS TYPE OF MIXING WITH 850-800MB TEMPS BETWEEN 11-13C SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR MAY BRIEFLY HIT MIDDLE 80S. THE SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO AMPLIFY INTO THE MS VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS TO THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVOLVING TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND LOSS OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL REMAIN QUIET...DRY...AND SEASONABLE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...AND 60S SOUTH. THURSDAY... UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY AND BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AROUND SUNSET. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE RETURN IS MEAGER AT BEST...AND MUCH OF THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WELL TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THURSDAY ANOTHER COMPLETELY RAIN FREE DAY. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM. WE WILL HAVE LOST THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT WILL NOW BE WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL AGAIN REACH UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST SPOTS. WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY EVERYBODY! && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING FRI AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS FL...WITH SOME ROBUST WINDS...AND SETTLES IN FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF EASTWARD TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. DURING THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND CARVES OUT A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE YUCATAN. THIS WILL HELP LIFT THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD BACK ACROSS THE AREA AND FORM A SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE ON THE GULF THAT TRACKS TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SUN. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC STARTED OUT IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER AND HAS A DEEPER LOW WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE SIMILAR WITH A MORE MODEST TROUGH AND IS SLOWER. ON MON THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH/LOW EXIT OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO TUE. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS INTO SAT THEN BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES END THE WEEK NEAR NORMAL BUT COOL OFF SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...BUT THEN SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL BY TUE. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE WINDS...AS NOTED ABOVE...WILL BE FRI WHEN SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU WITH BASES ABOVE 5000FT WILL CONTINUE CROSS THE PENINSULA FROM WEST TO EAST...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS AT TIMES INVADE OUR SKIES FROM THE WEST. NORTHEAST/EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT A SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 66 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 84 65 85 66 / 10 0 0 10 GIF 83 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 84 64 83 65 / 10 0 0 10 BKV 84 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 82 68 82 68 / 10 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED INTO THU. COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER 12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN) SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT. LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN CIGS HAVE LIFTED BACK TO VFR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW INTO THE KEWEENAW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY IWD AND SAW WED EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CIGS MAY AGAIN DROP TOWARD MVFR...MAINLY AT SAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 LOW PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL EXIT NE AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SINKS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND SHIFT E ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER DEEPENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS MANITOBA AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NW GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ONCE AGAIN. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1208 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED INTO THU. COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER 12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN) SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT. LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN CIGS HAVE LIFTED BACK TO VFR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW INTO THE KEWEENAW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY IWD AND SAW WED EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CIGS MAY AGAIN DROP TOWARD MVFR...MAINLY AT SAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR NW GALES OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL. EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY. AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY 17Z WDNESDAY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST (300-330) 12-14G19-22KT AND INCREASE TO 20-25G28-34KT BY 19Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
951 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWRN CANADA...WHICH WAS SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TNGT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TNGT THERE WILL ONLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS NWRN SD INTO THE BLKHLS AND EXTREME NERN WY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP MIX DOWN WINDS OF 35-45 KT...RESULTING IN WIND ADVY CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN SD PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECENT LACK OF PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DUST POLLUTION ALERT FOR WEST RAPID CITY. THE MAIN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ACROSS ND...AND THE TIMING OF THE MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA WINDS TO BE ACHIEVED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SUNDAY LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE NICE WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WITH SUBSEQUENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN...BUT THEN WARMUP APPEARS AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH FOR SUNDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS INSIST ON MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK AND SOME GROUND-WHITENING SNOW FOR MONDAY. 12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR OR SNOW...SHUNTING CORE OF COLD AIR EAST OF CWA WITH UPPER TROUGH MUCH FURTHER EAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COLDER THAN OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT WARMER THAN ECMWF. THICKNESS DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY FOR CONTRASTING RUNS ABOUT 250M. HAVE FOLLOWED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW UP IN LATER LONG TERM GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 950 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ TO 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ043-046-047-049. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ013-014-025- 026-031-032-072-073. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BUNKERS LONG TERM...HELGESON AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 .AVIATION... GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE EXIST ABOUT A 10-20 PCT CHANCE OF MVFR DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AT KLBB AND PERHAPS 20 PCT RISK OF IFR AT KCDS TOWARD SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014/ SHORT TERM... RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PULL QUITE A BIT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE OVER THE REGION WHICH IS RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HARDEST PART WAS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WERE CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER OUT WAY TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF BOTH KEEP A THICK LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING/EVOLVING...OPTED TO GO WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE HAD A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME READINGS AT 33 DEGREES AROUND FRIONA AND MULESHOE SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT FEEL THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED FOR NOW. WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT BACKWARDS FROM OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH AS INSOLATION IS USED TO EVAPORATE ANY SURFACE MOISTURE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SO NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A LIGHT WIND ALL DAY AND LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM MORE THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. JORDAN LONG TERM... THE UA LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS PROVIDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WILL SHEAR OUT WHILST SKIRTING SSE TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEREFORE START OFF DRY AS AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PROMOTES DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MORE OR LESS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE DRY COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR/AT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SFC RIDGE WITH HINTS OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LEADING TO A PROJECTED STRONGER AND BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/...IN COMPARISON TO TOMORROW NIGHT/S FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL BRING ABOUT THE RETURN OF BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...HENCE REBOUNDING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS COLD FRONT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...WITH CURRENT ITERATIONS SHOWING EITHER A STOUT SFC RIDGE DRIVING IN A BREEZY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE ECMWF/ OR A WEAKER FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE GFS/. A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS APPEARS APPROPRIATE ATTM...THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND BELOW NORM TEMPS ARE VALID. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 33 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 36 63 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 37 61 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 38 59 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 39 60 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 40 59 36 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 40 59 37 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 42 65 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 41 62 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 42 61 40 68 43 / 20 10 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE MOSTLY LEVELED OFF FURTHER WEST. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO THE WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY AREAS BUT CLOUDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP FURTHER NORTH. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 29 ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO ENTER NW WISCONSIN. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AT DULUTH WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE VILAS COUNTY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP TRENDS ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY SPOTTY RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARGUE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE FURTHER NORTH DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE LOW OVERCAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TRYING TO TIME THE CLEARING IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATE...SO THINK THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE AND A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN ZONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SINCE EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLAKES RIGHT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER SO LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE TWO TO SEVEN DAY PERIOD OCCURS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES IN...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WI. GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS WHIP THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI IN ABOUT 6-8 HOURS WHILE THE NAM DAWDLES 2-4 HOURS LONGER. OTHER THAN TIMING...THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...SREF PLUMES INDICATE ABOUT 0.2" LIQUID ACCUMULATION AT GRB WITH ABOUT 1/2" SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD ON THURS. WPC 1640Z 2-DAY WINTER PRECIP HIGHLIGHTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WI. ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER LIGHT SHOT OF MIXED PRECIP. FINALLY...A THIRD CLIPPER APPROACHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON ANY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF GENERATES AN IMPRESSIVE FOLLOWING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY LATE MONDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 VFR CIGS OF 4000 TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MTN LINE AND RAIN OR SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......MVL AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
629 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND STALL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING. THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AS IT DEPARTS FRIDAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK WINDS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EST...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS SO ANY RAIN THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FRAGMENTED THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY LOW-LEVELS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WELL OVER 10F. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WELL INTO THE 50S. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FAVORABLE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH...WITH LOCALLY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY SKIRT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER...GENERALLY INT THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AFTER SOME SPREAD OVER PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE STORM TRACK...THE MDL SUITE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION THURSDAYS STORM. A SERIES OF JET MAXES/SHORT WVS AT 500HPA CARVE OUT A TROF OVER THE LOWER GRTLKS WITH AN ACCOMP CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW BY THU MRNG. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...IN BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE FM THE OHIO VLY TO CAPE MAY NJ. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE FM THE GULF OF MEX LIFTS NE UP THE PIEDMONT...AND OVERRUNNING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE MID ATLC REACHING THE S TIER OF NYS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF THE WMFNT. DURING THU THIS 500HPA TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WVS DIG INTO IT. TOP DOWN CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AS SFC LOW CENTER JUMPS TO EASTERN SEABOARD AT TRIPPLE POINT OFF NJ DURING THU. RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY AND CONTS INTO THU EVNG AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MVS NE TO DOWN EAST MAINE BY FRI MRNG. ALL GUID TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK ALONG OR JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NT...WITH PCPN INITIALLY FM WARM CONVEYOR MOISTURE INFLOW...BUT MAINLY FROM COLD CONVEYOR BELT INFLOW THU NT. AS COASTAL LOW MVS N CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE THU NT WILL CHANGE THE PCPN FROM RAIN TO SCT -SHSN. MOST MDL (GEM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PLUMES) QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS N & W OF ALB. THE NAM HAS ANOTHER HALF INCH OVER THESE VALUES...WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. NONE OF WHICH IS SIG ENOUGH TO BE A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. FRI STRONG N SFC WIND GRADIENT W/14 HPA ACROSS NYS AS THE STORM LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES. AT 500HPA FCA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE MAIN TROF AS ITS CUTTING OFF WITH SVRL SHORT WVS DIVING INTO IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NY/NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER FCA FRI...WITH SCT -SHSN PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB IN N-NW FLOW ASSOC WITH DEEP 500HPA TROF EVOLVING INTO A CUT OFF. LK EFFECT RESPONSE WILL MAINLY W OF SYR AS H850 FLOW IS N TO NE FRI. FRI NT THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE NE INTO ATLC...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. HWVR DURING THE EVNG THE WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. OVERNIGHT FRI FCA RETURNS TO A FAST 500HPA FLOW WITH QUICK CHANGING WX SYSTEMS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST. SAT STARTS FAIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RGN...BUT NEXT STRONG SHRT WV AND ITS ASSOC CDFNT IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE W GRTLKS...AND CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN SAT. SAT NT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN WITH SCT -SHRA AND -SNSN. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THU...AND JUST TREND DOWN AFTER. FRI AND SAT THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EFP WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND IN A FAST 500HPA FLOW PATTERN. LATEST CDFNT EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN...AND 500HPA TROF AXIS FOLLOWS SUIT DURING THE DAY. THAT LVS FCA IN NW FL;OW OF CAA...WITH ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AT SFC...CYCLONIC FLOW ABV. SUN WILL BE TYPICAL LATE FALL DAY WITH VRBL CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/SHSN NW...AND PS TO MS SE. SUN NT YET ANOTHER SHRT WV MVS ACROSS NY/QB BORDER RGN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLDEST CORE OF AIR MASS REMAINS N ON QB/ON BORDER RGNS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OTTAWA VLY W INTO N GRTLKS. WHILE 500HPA FLOW SUN NT WILL BE BACKING SUN NT...WAA WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN INCR CLOUDS. MON 500HPA FLOW BCMS SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE USA. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA WILL SHIFT N OUT OF RGN DURING THE DAY WITH GENERALLY PS CONDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NR NORMAL. BY TUE 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER PRAIRIES OF S CNTRL CAN/N GRT PLAINS TURNS 500 HPA FLOW SW...AS W GRTLKS CYCLOGEN DEVELOPS. THIS LIFTS NE TWRD HUDSON BAY...MEANWHILE OUT HERE IN THE EAST SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS SW...FCA SURGES INTO WARM SECTOR SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MILD VETERANS DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BLO NORMAL...AND END IT ABV. WILL POPULATE W/HPC...BUT INCR TEMPS 5 OR SO DEG TUE. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 16Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WITH DRY LOW-LEVELS IN PLACE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES GENERALLY 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF. TONIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KPOU LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING. THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH....BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND UNDER UNDER 10 MPH THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED REGION WIDE. THIS WILL RESULT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT POSE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC THREAT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...IRL SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...IRL FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
553 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND STALL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING. THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AS IT DEPARTS FRIDAY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK WINDS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 550 AM EST...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS SO ANY RAIN THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FRAGMENTED THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY LOW-LEVELS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WELL OVER 10F. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WELL INTO THE 50S. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FAVORABLE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH...WITH LOCALLY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY SKIRT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER...GENERALLY INT THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AFTER SOME SPREAD OVER PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE STORM TRACK...THE MDL SUITE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION THURSDAYS STORM. A SERIES OF JET MAXES/SHORT WVS AT 500HPA CARVE OUT A TROF OVER THE LOWER GRTLKS WITH AN ACCOMP CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW BY THU MRNG. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...IN BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE FM THE OHIO VLY TO CAPE MAY NJ. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE FM THE GULF OF MEX LIFTS NE UP THE PIEDMONT...AND OVERRUNNING CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE MID ATLC REACHING THE S TIER OF NYS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF THE WMFNT. DURING THU THIS 500HPA TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WVS DIG INTO IT. TOP DOWN CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AS SFC LOW CENTER JUMPS TO EASTERN SEABOARD AT TRIPPLE POINT OFF NJ DURING THU. RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY AND CONTS INTO THU EVNG AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MVS NE TO DOWN EAST MAINE BY FRI MRNG. ALL GUID TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK ALONG OR JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NT...WITH PCPN INITIALLY FM WARM CONVEYOR MOISTURE INFLOW...BUT MAINLY FROM COLD CONVEYOR BELT INFLOW THU NT. AS COASTAL LOW MVS N CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE THU NT WILL CHANGE THE PCPN FROM RAIN TO SCT -SHSN. MOST MDL (GEM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS PLUMES) QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS N & W OF ALB. THE NAM HAS ANOTHER HALF INCH OVER THESE VALUES...WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. NONE OF WHICH IS SIG ENOUGH TO BE A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. FRI STRONG N SFC WIND GRADIENT W/14 HPA ACROSS NYS AS THE STORM LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES. AT 500HPA FCA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE MAIN TROF AS ITS CUTTING OFF WITH SVRL SHORT WVS DIVING INTO IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NY/NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER FCA FRI...WITH SCT -SHSN PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB IN N-NW FLOW ASSOC WITH DEEP 500HPA TROF EVOLVING INTO A CUT OFF. LK EFFECT RESPONSE WILL MAINLY W OF SYR AS H850 FLOW IS N TO NE FRI. FRI NT THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE NE INTO ATLC...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. HWVR DURING THE EVNG THE WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. OVERNIGHT FRI FCA RETURNS TO A FAST 500HPA FLOW WITH QUICK CHANGING WX SYSTEMS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST. SAT STARTS FAIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS RGN...BUT NEXT STRONG SHRT WV AND ITS ASSOC CDFNT IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE W GRTLKS...AND CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN SAT. SAT NT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN WITH SCT -SHRA AND -SNSN. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THU...AND JUST TREND DOWN AFTER. FRI AND SAT THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EFP WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND IN A FAST 500HPA FLOW PATTERN. LATEST CDFNT EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN...AND 500HPA TROF AXIS FOLLOWS SUIT DURING THE DAY. THAT LVS FCA IN NW FL;OW OF CAA...WITH ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AT SFC...CYCLONIC FLOW ABV. SUN WILL BE TYPICAL LATE FALL DAY WITH VRBL CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/SHSN NW...AND PS TO MS SE. SUN NT YET ANOTHER SHRT WV MVS ACROSS NY/QB BORDER RGN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLDEST CORE OF AIR MASS REMAINS N ON QB/ON BORDER RGNS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OTTAWA VLY W INTO N GRTLKS. WHILE 500HPA FLOW SUN NT WILL BE BACKING SUN NT...WAA WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN INCR CLOUDS. MON 500HPA FLOW BCMS SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE USA. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA WILL SHIFT N OUT OF RGN DURING THE DAY WITH GENERALLY PS CONDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NR NORMAL. BY TUE 500 HPA CUT OFF OVER PRAIRIES OF S CNTRL CAN/N GRT PLAINS TURNS 500 HPA FLOW SW...AS W GRTLKS CYCLOGEN DEVELOPS. THIS LIFTS NE TWRD HUDSON BAY...MEANWHILE OUT HERE IN THE EAST SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS SW...FCA SURGES INTO WARM SECTOR SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MILD VETERANS DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BLO NORMAL...AND END IT ABV. WILL POPULATE W/HPC...BUT INCR TEMPS 5 OR SO DEG TUE. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 10C...SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE OVERCAST AROUND 20 KFT AND LOWERING TO OVERCAST AROUND 5-7 KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 09Z-13Z WITH ONLY VCSH MENTIONED AT KGFL. HAVE INCLUDED A SCATTERED CLOUD GROUP AROUND 3-5 KFT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AS PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LIMIT ANY MVFR CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FAIR MILD WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING. THURSDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MIDWEST...AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD....THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL WEST THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH....BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND UNDER UNDER 10 MPH THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED REGION WIDE. THIS WILL RESULT SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT POSE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC THREAT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...IRL SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...IRL FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL. EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY. AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY 16Z WIND WILL BECOME 30013G21KT AND INCREASE TO 31024G33KT AFTER 18Z. WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................ AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT. FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. KCRE/KMYR ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HORUS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THU MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DICTATED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER... 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
922 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING WSW FLOW ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT REACHED MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS OF MID MORNING...SO THE SLOW TIMING IN OUR FORECAST GRIDS LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. NE TN AND SW VA NOT LIKELY TO MEASURE ANY RAINFALL UNTIL EARLY EVENING...ALTHO RAP MODEL DOES SPREAD LIGHT QPF ACROSS SW VA BY 18Z TO 19Z. CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE AND CONTINUES TO THICKEN...SO HOURLY AND MAX TEMP GRIDS MAY NEED A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. OTHERWISE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS THURSDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 55 65 39 / 50 90 40 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 52 62 38 / 50 90 40 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 53 61 37 / 60 90 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 48 61 36 / 30 90 40 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 CLEAR SKIES OF THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WAS GRADUALLY BEING MOISTENED BY VIRGA AND SOME SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED AT THE OFFICE. A BAND OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LOW TO MID 60S WERE REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED THE LONGEST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME RASN IN FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SW MN...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE MSAS THE PRESSURE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. ANALYZING THE MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT CONSALL AND BCCONSALL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPERATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CWA. AS SUCH THE BEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF BOTH SUGGEST PRECIP WITH FROPA. A DECENT RADAR ECHO TO THE WEST MAKES ME THINK THAT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST TODAY. WITH THE SPRINKLES EARLIER AND THE HRRR RUNS...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. NEAR MORNING THE CAA PUMPS INTO THE AREA AND LEADS TO COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS. IF PRECIP IS FALLING ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE...SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. DECIDED TO ADD SOME RASN IN THOSE COUNTIES AND EVEN DUBUQUE COUNTY UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TO THE EAST THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS WI AND IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR TOMORROW. MOST GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 35 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN LATER IN THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO WINDS WEAKENING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE A MORE VOLATILE TURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AM EXPECTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UNDERCUT THE BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI RIVER VALLEY...YIELDING LOWS IN THE 22-28 DEGREE RANGE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATES A WEAK FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ACROSS THE NORTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PHASING ISSUES PERSIST AMONG THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO IS LOW. TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF/GEM FAVOR A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MEANS WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND COLDER...WITH A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. PHASING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO RESOLVE...AND WITH HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 5 DAYS OUT...WILL NOT STRAY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY`S HIGHS IS 45-55...WHICH LEAVES SOME WIGGLE ROOM EITHER WAY. POPS RANGE FROM LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH...TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THREE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST WILL BE THE CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR AT DBQ BUT DID NOT JUMP ON IT. WITH THE NW WINDS USUALLY SEE CEILINGS LIFTING. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NW TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LAST IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DOES OCCUR SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT CID AND DBQ NEAR SUNRISE. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIBBS SHORT TERM...GIBBS LONG TERM...RP KINNEY AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SW WINDS AND RATHER CLEAR SKIES ARE LEADING TO A WARM UP. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA A FEW DEGREES. AS A RESULT RH VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ALSO CLEANED UP THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND USED THE TIMING TOOL TO COME UP WITH SKY GRIDS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR AND RUC MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT. NEED TO LOOK AT THE POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. HRRR HAS LIGHT RAIN CWA WIDE...NOT JUMPING ON THAT YET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 LARGE SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DENSE CI COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SE U.S. TUESDAY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND AN INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS HAD BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBTLE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH...WITH SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS TOUCHING THE 30 MARK AS OF 2 AM. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN ADVANCING DECK OF MID CLOUDS WITH THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AT 06Z SUGGESTED THE 00Z NAM/WRF WAS VERIFYING BEST WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MT. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...DRIVEN BY THE 150KT JET ANALYZED TOPPING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AT 00Z. THIS SENDS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING THE CENTER PASSING NEAR LA CROSSE AROUND 00Z...REACHING AROUND CENTRAL LAKE MI TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE GULF CUTOFF AND ONLY A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL FAVOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THEN IN THE WRAP-AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW AND AXIS OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MAINTAINED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME REINFORCED BY DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM. RESULTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO LIMIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A MILD DAY FOR NOVEMBER. HIGHS HAVE BEEN THUS LIMITED TO THE MID 50S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY TOUCH THE LOWER 60S. TONIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BRISK NW WINDS OVER ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS MODELS HAVE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH CRASHING THERMAL PROFILES...CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. THE STRONGER FORCING IS EXITING THE AREA AT SUNRISE SO THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIMITED. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS ONLY AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH LOW...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX TO DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY ON... THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS YET ANOTHER HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM. MODEL CONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF STORM SYSTEM THREE HAS BEEN LOW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO MOVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION. IF THE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PANS OUT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RESPECTIVELY. COLDER AIR BEING PULLED DOWN BEHIND STORM SYSTEM THREE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE STILL WARM GROUND WILL CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. LIMITED DAY TIME HEATING ON TUESDAY WOULD CAUSE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO A COLD RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THREE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST WILL BE THE CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR AT DBQ BUT DID NOT JUMP ON IT. WITH THE NW WINDS USUALLY SEE CEILINGS LIFTING. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NW TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LAST IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DOES OCCUR SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT CID AND DBQ NEAR SUNRISE. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS SYNOPSIS...SHEETS SHORT TERM...SHEETS LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1052 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SW WINDS AND RATHER CLEAR SKIES ARE LEADING TO A WARM UP. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA A FEW DEGREES. AS A RESULT RH VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ALSO CLEANED UP THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND USED THE TIMING TOOL TO COME UP WITH SKY GRIDS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR AND RUC MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT. NEED TO LOOK AT THE POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. HRRR HAS LIGHT RAIN CWA WIDE...NOT JUMPING ON THAT YET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 LARGE SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DENSE CI COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SE U.S. TUESDAY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND AN INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS HAD BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBTLE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH...WITH SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS TOUCHING THE 30 MARK AS OF 2 AM. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN ADVANCING DECK OF MID CLOUDS WITH THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THE DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AT 06Z SUGGESTED THE 00Z NAM/WRF WAS VERIFYING BEST WITH BOTH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MT. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...DRIVEN BY THE 150KT JET ANALYZED TOPPING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AT 00Z. THIS SENDS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING THE CENTER PASSING NEAR LA CROSSE AROUND 00Z...REACHING AROUND CENTRAL LAKE MI TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE GULF CUTOFF AND ONLY A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL FAVOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THEN IN THE WRAP-AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW AND AXIS OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE MAINTAINED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME REINFORCED BY DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM. RESULTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO LIMIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A MILD DAY FOR NOVEMBER. HIGHS HAVE BEEN THUS LIMITED TO THE MID 50S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY TOUCH THE LOWER 60S. TONIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BRISK NW WINDS OVER ESPECIALLY EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS MODELS HAVE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH CRASHING THERMAL PROFILES...CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE FAR NW WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. THE STRONGER FORCING IS EXITING THE AREA AT SUNRISE SO THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIMITED. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS ONLY AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH LOW...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX TO DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY ON... THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS YET ANOTHER HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM. MODEL CONTINUITY REGARDING THE TRACK OF STORM SYSTEM THREE HAS BEEN LOW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO MOVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION. IF THE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PANS OUT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RESPECTIVELY. COLDER AIR BEING PULLED DOWN BEHIND STORM SYSTEM THREE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE STILL WARM GROUND WILL CAUSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. LIMITED DAY TIME HEATING ON TUESDAY WOULD CAUSE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO A COLD RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THE DBQ TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CIGS WELL INTO VFR THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT AT DBQ...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE BROUGHT IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME WEST BY TONIGHT...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS SYNOPSIS...SHEETS SHORT TERM...SHEETS LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
919 AM MST WED NOV 5 2014 .UPDATE... NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING SE THROUGH ROSEBUD...TREASURE...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES PER RADAR IMAGERY. SHOWERS WERE DUE TO LINGERING DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL JET/S LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS SHOWED THE SHOWERS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON NW SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES. LIMITED MIXING WAS OCCURRING OVER THE E ZONES...BUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WERE FAIRLY STRONG AND CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS THERE. MODELS SHOWED THE WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON MIXING ON BUFKIT. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ARTHUR && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU... A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. GAP FLOW WINDS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PASS SEVERAL HOURS AS PRESSURE RISES TAKING PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS ORIENTATION IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. THE THREAT FOR ADVISORY WINDS HAS ENDED AND HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE. EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BOUNCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AND A FEW GUST TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...THEN DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TODAY AS MIXING WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A FEW GUST OF 45 TO 50 MPH EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTA`S BORDER. LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED POPS EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THIS MORNING BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS MORE SHORT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AGAIN AND GAP FLOW WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE GUST TO 50 MPH BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND FAR WESTERN ZONES AS JET DIVERGENCE/QG FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS MOVING IN. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING AND SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR WEST WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. RICHMOND .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD FALL...THE MESSAGE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR DOWNTICK IN TEMPERATURES COME MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL DOMINATE THE LANDSCAPE AS STRONG ENERGY IS FORCED INTO THE REGION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS IMMENSE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN US...THUS CIRCULATING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM ALL OF THIS WILL BE RAPIDLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE THE PROSPECT OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -16 C OVER A BROAD AREA OF SE MONTANA. FURTHER...BOTH MEX AND EC GUIDANCE ARE HINTING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN BILLINGS...AND MUCH COLDER AT EASTERN LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. ALL THAT BEING SAID...CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORESO WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL. ALSO OF NOTE...UPPED POPS FOR THESE PERIODS AS WELL AS AMPLE MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS...AND MAYBE THE FIRST PLAINS SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. STAY TUNED. SINGER && .AVIATION... WINDS WILL BE A GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT LIVINGSTON AND MILES CITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN SHERIDAN AND MILES CITY. THESE WILL BE VERY LIGHT POP UP SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. REIMER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060 035/064 045/058 032/059 039/057 034/040 019/036 1/N 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 33/W 21/B LVM 058 035/062 042/055 030/057 037/053 034/037 019/037 1/N 00/N 22/W 10/B 12/W 43/W 21/B HDN 061 030/065 039/058 029/060 034/058 030/040 019/038 1/N 00/B 13/W 21/B 12/W 43/W 31/B MLS 055 029/060 041/055 028/054 031/051 030/039 018/032 2/W 00/B 02/W 21/B 12/W 33/W 21/B 4BQ 056 028/063 039/056 028/055 032/055 031/039 016/032 2/W 00/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 33/W 21/B BHK 050 027/055 037/052 027/049 029/046 027/038 017/027 1/N 00/B 12/W 11/B 12/W 33/W 21/B SHR 057 029/064 036/057 029/059 031/059 031/032 020/037 1/N 00/B 03/W 31/U 11/B 33/W 31/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBR AND ERN CO. RECENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEBR ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN TO HOLD NEAR 9C AT IML WHILE COOLING SLIGHTLY FROM 6C TO 4C AT ONL. EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. THE NAM12 AND RAP MODELS SHOW MIXING UP TO 750MB AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW WINDS TO NEAR 200 MB. GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM NEAR 65 FAR SERN FA TO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST REMAIN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST. BROKEN HIGHS CLOUDINESS THE BEGIN TODAY WILL THIN OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 06 IN THE WEST AND AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO MAINLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED...THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS FIRST FRONT IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 13C TO 16C/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECTING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THIS FIRST FRONT. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY. AS MENTIONED THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SOME VERY COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE. THIS WILL BE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...AS UN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO ALASKA FROM THE PACIFIC...NUDGES INTO THE NORTH POLE REGION. THIS WILL PINCH OF A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC FROM THE POLE REGION...WITH ONE CHUNK MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND ANOTHER LARGER...COLDER CHUNK MOVING INTO RUSSIA...KOREA...AND NORTHERN CHINA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG FGEN BAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND ECE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH PEAK GUST POTENTIAL OF 35KTS ACROSS NORTH WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TERMINALS BELOW 10KTS AFTER 06Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A KVTN TO KLBF LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......................... AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT. FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WHICH DO ANTICIPATE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MASK THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THUS HAVE KEPT AS TEMPO MVFR ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCT/BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO CURRENT TAF. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PULL OUT FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT TO YIELD A SSE-SSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...POSSIBLY 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN RESULTING FROM A WEAK SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SSW-SW WINDS TONIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT YIELDING 10-15 KT THRUOUT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS AOB 2 FT THIS AFTN...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT...AND UP TO 4 FT THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AN ESE 0.5 TO 1.5 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A DOMINATING 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................... AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DICTATED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER... 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1113 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID CI/CS OPAQUE OVERCAST MAY PUT A LID ON THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...CURRENT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK AOK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSOLATION MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM...IF ANY...GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BEARING ON MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................. AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. FLATTENING SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE LAYER OF CIRRUS PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME PLUS THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FEATURE AND GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNENTHUSIASTIC REGARDING POPS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE VALUES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A STRETCH AT THIS POINT. FRIDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...A GOOD 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE. INITIAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S STILL WARRANTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAINED THE POPS MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY THEN ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. KCRE/KMYR ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HORUS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THU MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL SUN...WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PULL OUT FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT TO YIELD A SSE-SSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...POSSIBLY 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN RESULTING FROM A WEAK SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SSW-SW WINDS TONIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT YIELDING 10-15 KT THRUOUT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS AOB 2 FT THIS AFTN...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT...AND UP TO 4 FT THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AN ESE 0.5 TO 1.5 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A DOMINATING 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................... AS OF 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LIGHT SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE THOUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FEET THURSDAY AND WITH THE BRIEF STRONG OFFSHORE WIND...A FEW SIX FOOTERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AND FLEETING. FRIDAY SEAS WILL RELAX WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DICTATED BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. STRENGTH AND FINAL PLACEMENT REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER... 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING SECOND WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF FARGO..OUT OF THE AREA AND THE END OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. OVERALL THE TIMING OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN DECENT TODAY UNTIL 18Z AND 19Z RUNS...WHICH KEPT HIGH POPS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOO LONG. TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PULL THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER THE AREA INCREASES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS HELPING GENERATE THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP IN E CNTRL ND...WHICH CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER BASICALLY THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BENSON COUNTY ND TO WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY MN WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND AROUND WADENA/HUBBARD COUNTY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ELEVATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFT 03Z IN EASTERN ND AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z...THUS EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION ON THURSDAY AND WINDS/MIXING SHOULD BE LIGHT...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS RATHER COOL...IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH. RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CNTRL DAKOTAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS LIGHT MIXING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SPREAD PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INDICATING DRIZZLE AS H700 LEVEL IS DRY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FRIDAY MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY IN THE DAY...HOWEVER BY 15Z PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER AN EARLY HIGH AROUND 50. COOLER AIR PULLED DOWN FROM CANADA MAY HELP TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SATURDAY...WINDS/MIXING DECREASE AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...BRING DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA ARE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR SAGS AND HOW FAST. FOR SATURDAY THE INITIAL BLAST WILL ONLY GRAZE OUR AREA...WITH 140KT TO 15KT 250MB JET OVER WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. FOR SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH...AS WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT. MODELS BREAK OUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NORTH OF THIS ZONE. BASED ON 925MB - 850 THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS LIGHT RAIN IS BEST BET. FOR MONDAY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS...APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOWERING THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWFA. ON TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER WAVE...SIMILARLY PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF / GFS/DGEX/GEM-NH...DROPS ACROSS THE CWFA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROP TO 510DAM OR LOWER. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...925 TEMPS AROUND -10C AND ARCTIC SCUD SUSPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR 0F QUITE POSSIBLE. CALMER...DRIER AND UNSEASONALLY COLD WEATHER ENDS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 409 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AREAS OF -SN AND -RA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE KDVL AND KGFK THROUGH 00Z...AND KFAR AREAS THROUGH 03Z. WINDS NORTH AROUND 10KTS TURNING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFT 00Z. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIG/VSBY IN -SN THROUGH 00Z BEFORE MVFR OCNLY IFR CIGS AFT 00Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEAL MOSTLY WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...MVFR-IFR CLOUDS REMAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM SHERWOOD AND BOTTINEAU SOUTHEAST THROUGH RUGBY AND HARVEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID DEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 03 UTC. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID GET A REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM ROLLA THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...SKIES WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. DID SEE A GUST TO 53 MPH AT GLEN ULLIN THIS PAST HOUR. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3 PM CST BUT WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CENTRAL/5 MOUNTAIN. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLDER REGIME SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING LAKE WINNIPEG BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...AND ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE TEMPS SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY NOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND H850 WINDS AT 45 KNOTS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 35 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 45 IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW MOVES SOUTH...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SAGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE 30S AND 40S...TO HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS DRY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM KISN AND KMOT...SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH KBIS AND KJMS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK IN A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AT KDIK AND KBIS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>035-040>046. && $$ SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
123 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 122 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 SFC LOW NOW OVER VCNTY OF WHEATON SD...AND RAIN IS BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 IN SOUTHEASTERN ND THROUGH GRANT COUNTY MN. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF W CNTRL MN. LIGHTER SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT OF SW MB INTO NE ND...BUT THIS WILL BRING VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION CONSIDERING THINNER CLOUDS IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S (ANYTHING ADDITIONAL BY DEVILS LAKE SHOULD MELT ON IMPACT). SO THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTERNOON WILL BE TRENDING DOWN POPS OUT OF W CNTRL MN AND ACCOUNTING FOR HIGH POP AND LOW QPF SCENARIO IN THE NORTHWEST. 17Z HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES A MID AFTERNOON BREAK TO THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS FOR POPS AND WX TYPE. LATEST HRRR 925 MB 0 DEG LINE IS A REASONABLE DELINEATOR FOR SNOW/RAIN AND WILL USE IT AS GUIDANCE FOR WX TYPE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SNOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF I 94 AND RAIN SOUTH...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG THE I 94 CORRIDOR ITSELF. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FELL OVER DEVILS LAKE THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGIN TO MELT ON STREETS...AS WEB CAMS WITHIN THE CITY ARE SHOWING WET ROADS. THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP OVER SOUTHWESTERN MB THAT WILL COME THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. KEY AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND WHERE LATEST NAM AND RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A BIT HEAVIER PRECIP (NOT MODERATE SNOW RATES...HOWEVER) ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL EXPAND INTO WEST CNTRL MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH STILL A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BUT RATES NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS HOLDING OFF PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO KEEPING RATES IN CHECK IN AREAS OF CURRENT SNOW ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THIS ALL REFLECTS PREV FCST THINKING WELL AND AT THE CURRENT TIME...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE TOTALS IN THE THREE TO FIVE INCH RANGE WARRANTING AN ADVISORY. THOSE AMOUNTS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED AND JUST NORTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR IN E CNTRL ND AND W CNTRL MN...OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND WADENA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 SURFACE LOW IS WEST OF JAMESTOWN...HEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY (SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA). LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC FIELDS...AND INITIALIZING BEST WITH QPF AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. TRENDED THE FORECAST TO THIS SOLUTION...WHICH SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH...AND INCREASED QPF TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEBCAMS FROM THE SNOW AREA INDICATE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRASSY AREAS...WITH MOSTLY WET ROADS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (EVEN IF SNOWRATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER). THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE/IF SNOWRATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM ROAD SURFACES...AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MESSAGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN GRASSY AREAS...LESS ON ROADS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 TODAY...MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM WILLISTON TO WAHPETON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND UNORGANIZED BANDING. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED BANDING TO SET UP...AND STUCK WITH QPF ALONG THE FAVORED AREA (DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO TO WADENA) OF 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES. USING THE RAP 925MB 0F ISOTHERM FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE WORKING WELL (ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DUAL POL PRODUCTS). ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM RUGBY INDICATES FALLING SNOW...BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. GIVEN THE WARM ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNLESS SNOWRATES ARE HEAVIER. THUS...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE MAINLY FOR GRASSY SURFACES...WITH LESS ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE ROADWAYS. IF THIS IS THE CASE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH IF MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WILL AFFECT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING AND MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP LATE THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN PRECIP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. USING MODEL 925MB TEMPS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AND END AS SNOW). SATURDAY-TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPS TO COME DURING EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ABUNDANTLY COLD 850 MB DROPPING TO -15/-20C BY MON AND TUE. NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER OR HYBRID TYPE OF SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS PREFERS A MT-SD-IA TRACK WITH ECMWF NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE POINTS TO ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 122 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 AREAS OF -SN AND -RA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE KDVL...KGFK AND KFAR AREAS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS LGT NORTH AROUND 10KTS TUNRING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFT 00Z. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIG/VSBY IN -SN THROUGH 00Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS POST 00Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...WJB/TG AVIATION...ME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1026 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS FOR POPS AND WX TYPE. LATEST HRRR 925 MB 0 DEG LINE IS A REASONABLE DELINEATOR FOR SNOW/RAIN AND WILL USE IT AS GUIDANCE FOR WX TYPE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SNOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF I 94 AND RAIN SOUTH...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG THE I 94 CORRIDOR ITSELF. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FELL OVER DEVILS LAKE THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGIN TO MELT ON STREETS...AS WEB CAMS WITHIN THE CITY ARE SHOWING WET ROADS. THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP OVER SOUTHWESTERN MB THAT WILL COME THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. KEY AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND WHERE LATEST NAM AND RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A BIT HEAVIER PRECIP (NOT MODERATE SNOW RATES...HOWEVER) ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL EXPAND INTO WEST CNTRL MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH STILL A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BUT RATES NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS HOLDING OFF PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO KEEPING RATES IN CHECK IN AREAS OF CURRENT SNOW ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THIS ALL REFLECTS PREV FCST THINKING WELL AND AT THE CURRENT TIME...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE TOTALS IN THE THREE TO FIVE INCH RANGE WARRANTING AN ADVISORY. THOSE AMOUNTS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED AND JUST NORTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR IN E CNTRL ND AND W CNTRL MN...OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND WADENA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 SURFACE LOW IS WEST OF JAMESTOWN...HEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY (SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA). LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC FIELDS...AND INITIALIZING BEST WITH QPF AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. TRENDED THE FORECAST TO THIS SOLUTION...WHICH SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH...AND INCREASED QPF TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEBCAMS FROM THE SNOW AREA INDICATE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRASSY AREAS...WITH MOSTLY WET ROADS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (EVEN IF SNOWRATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER). THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE/IF SNOWRATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM ROAD SURFACES...AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MESSAGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN GRASSY AREAS...LESS ON ROADS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 TODAY...MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM WILLISTON TO WAHPETON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND UNORGANIZED BANDING. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED BANDING TO SET UP...AND STUCK WITH QPF ALONG THE FAVORED AREA (DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO TO WADENA) OF 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES. USING THE RAP 925MB 0F ISOTHERM FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE WORKING WELL (ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DUAL POL PRODUCTS). ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. CURRENT WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM RUGBY INDICATES FALLING SNOW...BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. GIVEN THE WARM ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNLESS SNOWRATES ARE HEAVIER. THUS...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE MAINLY FOR GRASSY SURFACES...WITH LESS ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE ROADWAYS. IF THIS IS THE CASE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH IF MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WILL AFFECT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING AND MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP LATE THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN PRECIP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. USING MODEL 925MB TEMPS...P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AND END AS SNOW). SATURDAY-TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPS TO COME DURING EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ABUNDANTLY COLD 850 MB DROPPING TO -15/-20C BY MON AND TUE. NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER OR HYBRID TYPE OF SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS PREFERS A MT-SD-IA TRACK WITH ECMWF NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE POINTS TO ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 700 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI. THESE SITES MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM KDVL THROUGH KFAR...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...WJB/TG AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT PULLING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/... MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE SE HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE IMPROVING MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. WILL PULL THE THREAT FOR SHRA A LITTLE FURTHER NW BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE NW AND AROUND ERI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY TONIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE NW...THE INCREASING COMBINATION OF FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK. GFS/MAV LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RUC RUN SO WILL UNDERCUT MAV POPS SOME. SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SEE NO REASON WHY WIDESPREAD RAIN WON`T OCCUR THRUT THE CWA THU INTO THU NIGHT. INSTABILITY BECOMES MARGINAL BY THU SO COULD BE SOME THUNDER FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. CONCERNED THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH THU NIGHT FOR ENOUGH WET SNOW TO OCCUR TO LEAD TO A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. LUCKILY...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING UNLESS THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO 32 AROUND 7 AM. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRI SO WILL KEEP ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT WELL INTO FRI NIGHT SO SOME LIGHT SHSN MAY LINGER BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SHORT BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THREAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SAT. THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER FRI NIGHT SO SOME CONCERN THAT FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR. BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT LATER ON SAT SO THINK THERE WILL BE A BAND OF AT LEAST SCT SHRA WITH THE FRONT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT SEEING MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGEOVER TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAT NIGHT. MAYBE SOME ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE WORST THAT COULD HAPPEN. EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...TEMPS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY CAN REBOUND ENOUGH TO EVEN GET BACK TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EAST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY LOOK FOR A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY MORE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OTHER AREAS COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. AN UPPER JET WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CIRRUS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...ERIE COUNTY PA COULD HAVE BROKEN CEILINGS NEAR 3000 FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TIMING IS AN ISSUE. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST. NON VFR AGAIN BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND IMPROVING ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... A WEAK TROF NOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD WITH UNSETTLED WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOT GALES THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THEN YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ147>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...BC MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CLOUD EDGE IS VISIBLE LOW ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON OUT THE WINDOW...DESPITE BEING ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY LOOKING FROM ABOVE. HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE EC COS AND MAY DISSOLVE THERE WHILE TOTAL CLEARING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE SC/SWRN COS. HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW OVER MN/WI/LWR MI. MOISTURE CONTINUES RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN TIER LATER TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW GOES OVER THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH A BIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN TIER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO MEASURABLE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AROUND 04Z. NAM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT. BUT SREF MEAN TIMING IS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FCST. THE RAIN MAY NOT REACH THE FAR NRN STRIPE OF COS BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL GET REALLY CLOSE. TEMPS MAY AGAIN HOLD VERY STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVE IN/THROUGH. AN INITIAL FALL TO NEAR 40F IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND BROADEN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER SC PA DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ENOUGH SUN MAKE POKE THROUGH TO MAKE SCT SHOWERS FILL THE HOLE BACK IN. THE STABILITY LOOKS HIGH...BUT FOR THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS IN THE AFTN WHERE NEAR TERM MODELS GENERATE THE MEAGER-EST OF CAPES AND SOME MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE ONLY WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY IS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE. THEREFORE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. QPF NOT WIDELY DISPARATE AND A GENERAL 0.3 TO 0.8 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE. EVEN AN INCH WILL PRODUCE ALMOST NO RIVER RESPONSE. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE RISE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS SEVERAL TROFS IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROFS CROSSING THE STATE FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. FORECAST INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS TROF...AIDED BY SRN STREAM ENERGY...WILL LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE UPPER PATTERN/RISE OF HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST...CAUSING THE GAP BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY BETWEEN UPPER TROFS. A COLD FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY BUT REINFORCING THE CHILLIER WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND THE SUBSEQUENT PAUSE IN TROF PASSAGES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME CALM AT MOST PLACES EARLY TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT NOW DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD A SHIELD OF RAIN AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN SITES AND BY 09-10Z IN UNV AND IPT. MVFR AT FIRST WILL DROP TO IFR IN BOTH CIGS AND VISBY A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN STARTS...BY 12Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IFR AND A FEW COULD BE LIFR. BFD SHOULD BE THE LAST TERMINAL TO DROP TO/BELOW MVFR...WHICH SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURS. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND SCATTER THE RAIN INTO SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NWRLY FLOW THEN KICKS IN AND UPSLOPE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH/TURN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY IN THE LAURELS AND NC MTS /JST AND BFD/. OTHER TERMINALS MAY HAVE ISOLD SHRA IN THE POST-STORM FLOW...BUT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THERE WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CIG HEIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THURS AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15KT. OUTLOOK... SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. PM SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN 1/3 INTO SAT NGT. GUSTY CFROPA. SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM. OTHERWISE VFR. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CLOUD EDGE IS VISIBLE LOW ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON OUT THE WINDOW...DESPITE BEING ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY LOOKING FROM ABOVE. HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE EC COS AND MAY DISSOLVE THERE WHILE TOTAL CLEARING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE SC/SWRN COS. HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW OVER MN/WI/LWR MI. MOISTURE CONTINUES RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN TIER LATER TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW GOES OVER THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH A BIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN TIER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO MEASURABLE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AROUND 04Z. NAM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT. BUT SREF MEAN TIMING IS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FCST. THE RAIN MAY NOT REACH THE FAR NRN STRIPE OF COS BY 12Z...BUT IT WILL GET REALLY CLOSE. TEMPS MAY AGAIN HOLD VERY STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVE IN/THROUGH. AN INITIAL FALL TO NEAR 40F IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND BROADEN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER SC PA DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ENOUGH SUN MAKE POKE THROUGH TO MAKE SCT SHOWERS FILL THE HOLE BACK IN. THE STABILITY LOOKS HIGH...BUT FOR THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS IN THE AFTN WHERE NEAR TERM MODELS GENERATE THE MEAGER-EST OF CAPES AND SOME MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE ONLY WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY IS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE. THEREFORE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. QPF NOT WIDELY DISPARATE AND A GENERAL 0.3 TO 0.8 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE. EVEN AN INCH WILL PRODUCE ALMOST NO RIVER RESPONSE. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE RISE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QPF...HAVE TRENDED QPF UPWARD...BUT CONSIDERING SOME VARIANCES IN MODEL QPF...AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING OF THE WAVE...AND ORIENTATION...HAVE RANGED FROM A 0.20 IN THE NW TO ALMOST 3/4 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ANY HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED CLOSER TO THE EVENT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY... AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD INDICATING CHC POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR SETTING THE STAGE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME CALM AT MOST PLACES EARLY TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT NOW DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD A SHIELD OF RAIN AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN SITES AND BY 09-10Z IN UNV AND IPT. MVFR AT FIRST WILL DROP TO IFR IN BOTH CIGS AND VISBY A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN STARTS...BY 12Z MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IFR AND A FEW COULD BE LIFR. BFD SHOULD BE THE LAST TERMINAL TO DROP TO/BELOW MVFR...WHICH SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURS. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND SCATTER THE RAIN INTO SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NWRLY FLOW THEN KICKS IN AND UPSLOPE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MIX WITH/TURN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY IN THE LAURELS AND NC MTS /JST AND BFD/. OTHER TERMINALS MAY HAVE ISOLD SHRA IN THE POST-STORM FLOW...BUT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THERE WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CIG HEIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THURS AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15KT. OUTLOOK... SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. PM SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN 1/3 INTO SAT NGT. GUSTY CFROPA. SUN...MVFR CIGS W IN AM. OTHERWISE VFR. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE RAP HAS STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS EVENING AND THEN THIS RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PAINTING A BROAD AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE ARW AND NMM SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THAT THE SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FOR COLLABORATION REASONS...STAYED WITH THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT A BIT CONCERNED THAT THEY MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR THESE TWO AREAS. MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THERE IS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...850 MB QG CONVERGENCE...WEAK 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED. WET BULB ZEROS IN THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUNDINGS WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29 MAY BE UP TO AN INCH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014 FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DPROG/DT SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHIFTED THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE COBB DATA FOR KAUW SUGGESTS BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH IN THE NAM AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GFS. MEANWHILE IN KEAU...THERE IS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EITHER MODEL. FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 05.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THIS WILL OCCUR... THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE 05.12Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GEM HAS NEARLY 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NAEFS STANDARDIZED 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF ARE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN -12 AND -16C. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND IT STILL BEING ON DAY 6 AND 7...JUST STAYED WITH THE SUPER BLEND FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED NOV 5 2014 DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN INTO THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 20Z. AS THE LOW SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW AT KRST BY 09Z AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KLSE BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR BY 00-02Z WITH KRST SLIPPING INTO IFR/LIFR AFTER 03Z. SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-30KT RANGE. PLAN ON MVFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...DAS