Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
153 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S EACH DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING INLAND FROM THE WEST IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE 1ST FALL/WINTER SEASON UPPER TROF OF THE SEASON...THAT HAS
BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR CWA
TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT HAD BEEN
SEEN EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON
CWA`S...PRODUCING FLAGSTAFF`S 1ST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...AND EVEN
SOME TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SE AZ AT THIS HOUR.
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL SHOWS THIS CLEARING TREND CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ANY REMAINING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT STILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX ENDING
AT/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH MANY
OF THE OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING THEIR 1ST MID TO UPPER
40`S OF THE SEASON FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH THE PHX URBAN CORE
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROF IS
NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AZ DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO KEEP HEIGHTS/TEMPS DOWN A
BIT LONGER...WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE SAME...OR
EVEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT ON MONDAY...AS EVEN DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH HELPS TO AID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB TEMPS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD TO KEEP MOST LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW YO MID 70S ON MONDAY...AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND EURO MODEL SUITES CONTINUE THE SOLN OF SLOWLY
SHIFTING THE MAIN LONG-WAVE RIDGING BACK EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS RECOVERING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ALLOWING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LOW TO MID CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT AND ARE SHOULD BE GONE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS MOSTLY WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
WINDS WESTERLY TURNING TO NORTH THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF ARIZONA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST. AFTN HIGHS IN THE
70S CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY THEN
RECOVERING SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...WATERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S EACH DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING INLAND FROM THE WEST IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE 1ST FALL/WINTER SEASON UPPER TROF OF THE SEASON...THAT HAS
BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR CWA
TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT HAD BEEN
SEEN EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON
CWA`S...PRODUCING FLAGSTAFF`S 1ST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...AND EVEN
SOME TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SE AZ AT THIS HOUR.
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL SHOWS THIS CLEARING TREND CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ANY REMAINING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT STILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX ENDING
AT/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH MANY
OF THE OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING THEIR 1ST MID TO UPPER
40`S OF THE SEASON FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH THE PHX URBAN CORE
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROF IS
NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AZ DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO KEEP HEIGHTS/TEMPS DOWN A
BIT LONGER...WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE SAME...OR
EVEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT ON MONDAY...AS EVEN DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH HELPS TO AID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB TEMPS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD TO KEEP MOST LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW YO MID 70S ON MONDAY...AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND EURO MODEL SUITES CONTINUE THE SOLN OF SLOWLY
SHIFTING THE MAIN LONG-WAVE RIDGING BACK EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS RECOVERING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ALLOWING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CIGS OF 5-7K FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WESTERLY SYNOPTICALLY
INDUCED WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLIES TAKE OVER TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS HAVE SLACKENED OFF OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN
12 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO BOTH SE CA
AND SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM WED ON INTO SAT...WITH HIGHS WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SAT. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON TUE AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FROM THU ONWARD INTO SAT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES...THAT WILL BE KEPT IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BY OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WILL BECOME FAIR TO GOOD FROM
THU ON INTO SAT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...AND AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT 88-D RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EXTREME
NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR IS
STILL SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR AND A
RATHER DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER OVER THE
GREATER PHX AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A FEW OTHER CHANGES TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND TEMP GRIDS...CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE STILL LOOKING
GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY...AS AIR IS LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND .80 INCH PWAT...WITH ALL OF THIS IN A SHALLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. OBVIOUSLY SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH...BUT THIS IS MINIMAL AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN
WEAK AND LOW TOPPED. POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH LOOKING AT WINDS FROM MESOWEST
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA IT APPEARS ATM IT IS LYING JUST WEST OF
THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA. MID CLOUD DECK SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS GENERAL LOCATION. MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN TO THIS REGION.
SOME MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING OUR OWN 4KM WRF...INDICATE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE IN THE
UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE LOWER DESERTS. REDUCED OUR POPS A LITTLE BIT
FROM WHAT WE HAD IN OUR EARLIER PACKAGE...THOUGH STILL KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD FROM THE PHOENIX METRO
ON EASTWARD. BY EVENING...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOCATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BIGGEST STORY TODAY THOUGH WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. READINGS MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ON NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. BY FRIDAY...MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SHOULD RECOVER BACK
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CIGS OF 5-7K FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WESTERLY SYNOPTICALLY
INDUCED WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLIES TAKE OVER TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS HAVE SLACKENED OFF OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN
12 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO BOTH SE CA
AND SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM WED ON INTO SAT...WITH HIGHS WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SAT. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON TUE AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FROM THU ONWARD INTO SAT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES...THAT WILL BE KEPT IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BY OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WILL BECOME FAIR TO GOOD FROM
THU ON INTO SAT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MCLANE
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT STALL BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY, CROSSING OUR AREA BEFORE TRACKING UP INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MOVES UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THIS ESTF UPDATE WE ARE ADDING POPS SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE ABOVE 700MB.
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL HAS OCCURRED IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. LATEST HRRR WAS USED AS AN AREAL AND TIMING
TREND. THE PREDICTED ECHO INTENSITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WAS
LOWER OVER OUR CWA, SO OPTED FOR PLAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW.
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT, THEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE /1032 MB/ CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SURFACE HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO OUR AREA,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME MORE. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
EXPECTING THE WIND TO LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF SOME WAA AND SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CRESTING
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES. THE AIRMASS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS RATHER DRY AS EVIDENT BY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL START
TO INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE MIXING ENDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO TURN MORE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS BLEND THEN MADE SOME
TWEAKS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED
TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDED LOWERING
THE DEW POINTS QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOW QUICK
THE WINDS DECOUPLE AND WHAT COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO START WILL SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS PROBABLY ARRIVING IN
OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH SOME INCREASE.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP ASSIST IN STRENGTHENING SOME
WAA ACROSS THE EAST ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ARRIVES. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C RANGE, AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A WARMER AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY,
IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL VARIETY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USE AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL PATTERN...THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS SOME SLIGHT RIDGING BUT
LARGELY LOOKS ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH DEVELOPS MIDWEEK TO
WEST OF OUR AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARDS. THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE PATTERN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT STALLS
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN TRACK
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, REACHING NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MOVES
UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION BUT WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A NICE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BUT GETS HUNG
UP ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND DOESN`T QUITE MAKE IT TO OUR AREA. THE
FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND A LOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS
AROUND AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE EVENING, SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BOLSTERED BY THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP US FROM
RADIATING EFFICIENTLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS A RESULT.
EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE MAKING ITS MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE AN
INCH AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SOUTH AND EAST. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE PARAMETERS
LOOKED TOO WEAK TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
FRIDAY...THE LOW PULLS OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY...THIS MIGHT BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS WE GET SOME COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40 AS WE
KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND AS IT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST, A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO TRACK UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING US RAIN, MAYBE EVEN SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND WIND ONCE AGAIN. THE
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE DETAILS TO
BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
30S ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM AND
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET AT TIMES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...VFR, WITH SOME CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000
FEET. WESTERLY TO LOCALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
TUESDAY...VFR, WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY...THEN DROPPING TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES, IN RAIN.
FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LESSEN SOME MORE
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME GUSTY
WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS WHERE A FEW GUSTS
ARE NEAR 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE TREND IS DOWNWARD AND
THIS IS THE SAME WITH THE SEAS. SINCE THE TREND IS DOWN, WE OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER COLLABORATING
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT
FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4
FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND BECOME GUSTY, EXCEEDING 25
KNOTS, BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ON THURSDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND.
SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
844 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
...WARMER WITH INCREASING COASTAL CLOUDS...
.UPDATE...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK WAS
PUSHING INLAND SOUTH OF JAX BEACH TOWARD PALATKA AND THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST. THE 00Z JAX RAOB SHOWED A DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750 MB WITH AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. FARTHER INLAND...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER CALM WINDS.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COASTAL CLOUDS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM12...SREF...ARW
AND NMM SUGGESTED A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES IMPACTING
THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. AT THIS
TIME REFRAINED FROM ADVERTISING MORE THAN 10-13% RAIN CHANCES FOR
OUR FL COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN STRONG DRY AIR PRESENCE ABOVE
950 MB...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD TRANSPIRE EARLY TUE MORNING. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW AND PASSING
CLOUDS WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE FL COAST
TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG COASTAL SE GA.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SE GA TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE
LOWER 40S AT ALMA (42 DEG AT 830 PM) AND WILL ADJUST MINS
DOWNWARD A BIT FURTHER FOR UPPER 30S FROM JESUP TO DOUGLAS
NORTHWARD...THEN LOWER 40S SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUWANEE RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AND INLAND UP THE FL ATLANTIC COAST COAST. BOTH THE
NAM12 AND HRRR ADVERTISED LOW MVFR CIGS FLIRTING NEAR GNV AND THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-06Z AND AT THIS TIME INCLUDED
MVFR PREVAILING AT CRG BY 05Z AND TEMPO MVFR AT GNV AROUND 09Z.
LOW CIGS COULD IMPACT JAX AND VQQ BY SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND NEAR SSI
THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. ADVERTISED PREVAILING MVFR AT
SSI AND CRG THROUGH 18Z...LIFTING TO VFR DURING THE EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...WILL COMBINED WITH GA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NEARSHORE DUE
TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT...WHILE FL OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR EAST WINDS
15 KTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: DROPPED THE HIGH RISK FOR THE COAST AND REPLACED
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 40 76 51 80 / 0 10 0 20
SSI 51 73 61 77 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 48 76 59 80 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 57 76 62 80 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 47 79 54 82 / 0 10 0 20
OCF 49 80 57 83 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
153 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT INTO THIS EVENING.
* LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AGAIN TOMORROW.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE SET
UP BEHIND THE HIGH AND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THINKING THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ARND 50 KT AT 2000 FT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP.
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY WITH GUSTS ARND 20 KT TOMORROW...AND SHOULD
ALSO SEE LOW END VFR CLOUDS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GUSTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
130 PM CST
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAS SET UP A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE
LAKE...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING WINDS...WHILE VEERING A LITTLE MORE
SLWY. ANTICIPATE THAT WINDS REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH ARND 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY
WITH THE STRONG SLWY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PLAINS LOW...BUT COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FROPA SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER.
HOWEVER...WITH FLOW BEING OFF SHORE THROUGH THE ADVISORY
PERIOD...THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR STRONG WINDS RATHER THAN HIGH
WAVES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BY THE TIME THE LOW
SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SETTING UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH GALES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY AND THEN DROP OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1155 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
High pressure ridge sliding past the forecast area this morning
with southerly flow setting up on the back side of the axis.
Temperatures a little ahead of schedule, in spite of the cloud
cover over the western half of the CWA. More sunshine in the east
through the morning hours, but longer with the WAA and southerly
flow in the east under the clouds...both adding up to the temps
needing a bump a couple degrees. Some minor adjustments overall,
but sending out update momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Main issues are bkn/sct mid clouds and LLWS for later tonight. High
pressure ridge over Central Illinois, but some mid level clouds
edging into the western terminals. ILX 12Z sounding a little dry
btwn 8000-11000 ft, so some of the eastern edge is eroding as it
progresses eastward. SCT in BMI CMI and DEC, slowly giving way to
more BKN this afternoon. Southerly winds a little gusty as the
pressure gradient kicks in. Two main concerns for the TAF pd...
one being the persistence of a BKN cig or SCT later this afternoon
with a brief break before more moisture moves in from the SW.
Somewhat optimistic forecast scattering out in the overnight. WS
is a big issue with the last few runs. Best WS after 06z, but
getting going just before that, so went with 04z in the TAFS,
speed and directional. From sfc to 2kft, veering to SWrly and up
to 40kts. Some discrepancies btwn 35 and 45 kts and SW vs
SSW...but forecast starting the trend. Late evening flights may
start to see the impacts, even if bulk of the issue will occur
after midnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1135 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT INTO THIS EVENING.
* LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AGAIN TOMORROW.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE SET
UP BEHIND THE HIGH AND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THINKING THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ARND 50 KT AT 2000 FT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP.
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY WITH GUSTS ARND 20 KT TOMORROW...AND SHOULD
ALSO SEE LOW END VFR CLOUDS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GUSTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL STEADILY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN
ALLOWING FOR A STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH
THE DAY. A SECOND LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COOL FRONT
BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE LAKE AS THIS OCCURS TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT
GUSTS WILL PUSH 30 KT BY LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH
SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LAKE TEMPERING MIXING TO SOME DEGREE. SPEEDS MAY COME UP
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE MERGING LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. AM NOT EXPECTING GALES AT THIS POINT BUT
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT COULD BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL
TURN WESTERLY AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON THE
EVOLUTION. LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON THE WIND FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. DO
HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT A NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LAKE AS THE LOW PASSES BUT IT COULD BE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST.
WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM WIND SPEEDS COULD
STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP GUST SPEEDS JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
High pressure ridge sliding past the forecast area this morning
with southerly flow setting up on the back side of the axis.
Temperatures a little ahead of schedule, in spite of the cloud
cover over the western half of the CWA. More sunshine in the east
through the morning hours, but longer with the WAA and southerly
flow in the east under the clouds...both adding up to the temps
needing a bump a couple degrees. Some minor adjustments overall,
but sending out update momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Mid-level deck pushing eastward as high pressure pushes away from
the region should reach KPIA and KSPI by 12z TAF valid time and
spread to KCMI by 16z. CIGs are generally above 070 and IFR
conditions should persist through the TAF period.
Bigger concern will be the potential for LLWS tonight as pressure
gradient increases between the retreating 1031mb high and a
strong low pressure system over the high plains. BUFKIT soundings
from NAM and GFS indicate potential for occasional 40 kt winds
from 210-250 degrees around 2 kft AGL across the western TAF
sites. Since the best chances seem to be after 06z, will hold off
mentioning LLWS for now. However, if trends continue in later
model runs, aviators should be prepared for significant shear late
tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
550 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 50 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN SPOTS BUT
COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AN INCOMING DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THIS MAY
ACT TO KEEP GUST FREQUENCY REDUCED OR MINIMAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL
RAMPING UP. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY MID EVENING.
WINDS TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD
COVER STILL LOOKING TO BE IN PLACE. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME MORE
FREQUENT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL STEADILY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN
ALLOWING FOR A STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH
THE DAY. A SECOND LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COOL FRONT
BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE LAKE AS THIS OCCURS TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT
GUSTS WILL PUSH 30 KT BY LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH
SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LAKE TEMPERING MIXING TO SOME DEGREE. SPEEDS MAY COME UP
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE MERGING LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. AM NOT EXPECTING GALES AT THIS POINT BUT
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT COULD BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL
TURN WESTERLY AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON THE
EVOLUTION. LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON THE WIND FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. DO
HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT A NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LAKE AS THE LOW PASSES BUT IT COULD BE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST.
WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM WIND SPEEDS COULD
STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP GUST SPEEDS JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
511 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Mid-level deck pushing eastward as high pressure pushes away from
the region should reach KPIA and KSPI by 12z TAF valid time and
spread to KCMI by 16z. CIGs are generally above 070 and IFR
conditions should persist through the TAF period.
Bigger concern will be the potential for LLWS tonight as pressure
gradient increases between the retreating 1031mb high and a
strong low pressure system over the high plains. BUFKIT soundings
from NAM and GFS indicate potential for occasional 40 kt winds
from 210-250 degrees around 2 kft AGL across the western TAF
sites. Since the best chances seem to be after 06z, will hold off
mentioning LLWS for now. However, if trends continue in later
model runs, aviators should be prepared for significant shear late
tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
248 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE. KMD
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 50 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD OF THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AND
STEADILY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE IN PLACE WITH A STEADIER BUT STILL LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND STARTING TO SET UP OUT TOWARD RFD. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA SOME SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AND HAVE INCLUDED A SHALLOW FOG MENTION AT DPA.
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO BUILD. GUSTS OF 18-20 KT ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON BUT INCOMING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SOME OCCASIONAL 20-25 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WINDS RAMP UP ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50 KT BY AROUND 2000 FT AGL.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. SHRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
147 PM CDT
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO ABATE OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 25
TO 30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN CANADA SURFACE LOW...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE LAKE BY TUESDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING WESTERLY
THROUGH MID WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
232 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
VFR conditions expected thru 06z Sunday. Main forecast concern
will be with the potential for low level wind shear later Sunday
night into Monday morning as winds increase out of the south ahead
of our next weather system. Otherwise, other than some scattered
to broken mid and high level clouds moving across the area on
Sunday, not much in the way of sensible weather to affect the
forecast area.
Light east to southeast winds tonight will become southerly by 15z
Sunday and gradually increase in speed, especially across the west
where we could see some gusts around 20 kts by late afternoon.
Surface winds will then decouple by evening, but increase at the
1500 to 2000 foot level in the 03z-06z time frame. The NAM-WRF
model was the most aggressive with the winds later tomorrow eve,
while the local WRF-ARW and mean ensembles were borderline, but
only at SPI and PIA in the 03z-06z time frame. At this point, since
we have a couple more model runs, will hold off mentioning LLWS in
this set of TAFs but may need to be included in later forecasts if
we see better model agreement.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING VALUES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HRRR
AND RUC FIELDS INDICATE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GO WITH POPS AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BY 12Z...WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME
NORTHWEST WITH LOWER POPS REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARMER THAN MOS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
READINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PROGS SHOW ADEQUATE THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE FORCING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
THUS WENT LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TIMED THEM AS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
BLEND OF MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH SOME CLEARING NORTHWEST AND
CLOUDY/CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THAT FRONT.
THIS MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. KEPT LOW POPS THERE DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WENT
DRY...BUT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT LOW POPS ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THE
MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS STRONGEST FORCING MIGHT NOT BE ALIGNED WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE. THUS KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TIMING OF POPS AS THREE
SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN VARYING DEGREES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION.
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE GFS HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN EAST COAST.
THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO MOVE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
QPF TO THE EAST AS ITS 06Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
PREFER TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS GOING PER THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
THIS AND CONSISTENCY REASONS. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER OF ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER FEATURE
WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS WITH LOW LEVEL MODEL THICKNESSES
PLAYING TUG OF WAR WITH THE LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN ONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY BUT THEN MODELS
COME INTO DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH...THEY ALL BRING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAD MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE DRIER MOISTURE FIELD OF THE ECMWF WAS
LAGGING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE GFS HAS SOME QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND DO
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL THE MODELS COME
TOGETHER MORE.
WITH MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONLY BRIEF BREAKS...WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S PER REGIONAL
BLEND LOOK GOOD. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...SHOULD NOT SEE A
HUGE DROP IN NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY LOWS IN THE 30S A
GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
LEADING EDGE OF STRATOCU ARRIVING IN THE KLAF VICINITY...AND SHOULD
REACH KHUF AN HOUR OR TWO QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD ARRIVAL...AND ADDED LLWS MENTION AT ALL
BUT KBMG OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA.
00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN RAIN DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH A VFR STRATOCU DECK ARRIVING AT ALL TERMINALS
PREDOMINANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10KTS
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KLAF PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER SUNRISE AS STRONGER LIFT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO SLIP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON WITHIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY GUST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KLAF...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS. RAIN SHOULD END AT KLAF
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN SFC SYSTEM JUST SW OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
FORCING BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH THETAE ADVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KS HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER EASTERN KS. BOTH MESO SCALE
MODELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE HAVE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SHIFTING EAST OVER OUR AREA
WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BOTH EXPANDING THE SHOWERS WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN MOVING OUT THE SHOWERS BY 07Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH
HAVE BEEN DRY MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SATURATED BY 00Z AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z
WEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 06-07Z
OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
THROUGH 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR BY MORNING. MIXING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP MINS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BEYOND THE MID 30S OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...MINS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO FLUCTUATE ON STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ONLY CERTAINTY IS TIMING AND SOME OF THE THERMAL TRENDS AS ALL
MODELS SHOWING SUBSEQUENT PUSHES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST COMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE END AND JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...SO STILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LIKELIES GOING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS THEN BRIEFLY PUSH BACK INTO THE CWA WITH BRIEF RIDGING
ALOFT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONGER WAVE THEN DIGGING INTO THE REGION FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS AGAIN REVERTING BACK TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS KIND OF
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...VERSUS THE DEEP TROUGH FROM
RUNS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUIDANCE CHANCE POPS
DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT/STRENGTH. DECENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO AGAIN COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALSO FALLING TEMPS LOOK
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...FOR NOW HAVE JUST STUCK WITH ONLY SMALL DIURNAL RISES AT
THIS TIME.
MAIN DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS THE EC DIGS ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
US AS THE WAVE REMAINS WEAKER AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SAME PATH AS
THE OTHER IMPACTING MORE OF THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOVE
VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -10C OR COLDER BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR AT LEAST A MAJOR
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE...AND IF THE EC IS CORRECT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...04/00Z
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ON BACKSIDE OF FRONT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SKIES WILL
RAPIDLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE STATE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
GUSTY S/SE WINDS 15-30 MPH USHERING IN MILDER AIR WITH TEMPS 5-10+
DEGS WARMER FROM 24 HRS AGO. 2 PM TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID 50S FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE PERSISTENT MID CLOUDINESS FINALLY
MOVING EAST. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS THE TEMPS
HAVE MANAGED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 50 OR LOWER 50S. MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS AND OBS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TX TO WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TONIGHT... MID CLOUDS TO EXIT FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT. CANT TOTALLY RULE
OUT EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT BUT
PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR MAY LIMIT TO MAINLY VIRGA THUS NO
MENTION. LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD KEEP BL MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IF NOT
A LITTLE ABOVE DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND HAVE LOWS IN RANGE OF
37-44F.
MONDAY... BREEZY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN LOOKS TO
LARGELY REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM
WESTERN IA THROUGH OK WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BENEATH
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... WITH SECONDARY DEFORMATION
RAIN SWATH EMERGING FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AS THE MOIST AXIS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS. SOUTH WINDS 15-30 MPH
TO CONTINUE USHERING IN WARMER AIR AND DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BOOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 60S
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
MONDAY NIGHT... INCREASING LIFT (APPROACHING FRONT... UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK) COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
(PWATS 1-1.3+ INCHES) TO SUPPORT PERIOD OF RAIN MANY LOCATIONS.
HEAVIEST RAINS AT THIS TIME FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD WHERE
BEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0.4 TO 0.6 INCH POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS SUGGESTED
AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO BE NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z TUE.
MILDEST LOWS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM AROUND 50 OR LOWER
50S... WHILE COOLEST FAR NORTHWEST CWA (LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER MID WEST..HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. MODEL TO MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT..MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD
CONVERGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WHERE THIS SYSTEM
WILL ULTIMATELY GO. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SEEM REASONABLE
TO MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUN MODEL RUNS PROG THE TROF THAT PASSED
OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DIG AN
IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AS
THIS TROF/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATES NORTHEAST IT WILL CREATE A BROAD
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
BROAD FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS PROG ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH S/SE WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. DESPITE SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLY LINGERING TONIGHT DID ADD MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WITH NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS IN 1500-2000FT AGL RANGE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK TROF RAN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH 30S FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE.
EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATES CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT MORE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING PRESENT AS THE MOISTURE MOVES IN WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME VIRGA DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A RATHER ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE TEMPERATURES
GO FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK...BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY IN THE PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHARPEN THE FOCUS OF RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT TO PRIMARILY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT. THUS... PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND LEADING EDGE
OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT APPROACHES. THE LATER ONSET OF RAIN ADDS
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ADVERTISED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT...THE CONSISTENT
EVENT TIMING BACKS NOW OUT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WHAT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKE A WIDESPREAD...BUT RATHER LOW...QPF EVENT.
DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL SHOWING SEASONABLY HIGH PW
VALUES...THE QUICK SHOT OF MID LEVEL FORCING AND VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END EARLY AND POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO
DEPART...LIMITING TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WHAT HAD BEEN A WEEK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE 00Z CYCLE.
CONSIDERING THIS LARGE SHIFT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE RELATED
UPPER JET MAX AND MI LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH IN
THE DATA-SPARSE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF AK...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL ANTICIPATE MANY MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE MODELS NARROW DOWN A MORE CONSISTENT TRACK. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THE WARMER...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN CONSENSUS HIGHS IN THE 50S...WHICH
WOULD BE TOO WARM IF THE SYSTEM DOES OPT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS THEN SHOWN
TO DIG A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S....SENDING COLD AIR
AT 850 MB SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE 40S FOR THU AND FRIDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S THU NIGHT...IN THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER THE NEXT RIDGE AXIS. CURRENT CONSENSUS THEN
SHOWS A MINOR WARMING TREND LEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH S/SE WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. DESPITE SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLY LINGERING TONIGHT DID ADD MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WITH NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS IN 1500-2000FT AGL RANGE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP FROM VERY CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE OF 50 DEGREE READINGS NOTED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL HAVE A MODERATE RIDGE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AS ANY ENERGY AT THE MID LEVELS STAY
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING AS
COLD OR A TOUCH COLDER MONDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM CONCLUDED
FOR THIS YEAR EARLIER TODAY. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS
THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AGAIN GOOD CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND A MILDER
STARTING POINT FOR THE NIGHTLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. ALSO USED THE MAX AND MIN GRIDS FROM THIS BLENDED MODEL
AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME MAJOR ELEVATIONALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS
EACH NIGHT OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SETUP FOR FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OUT OF
THE UPPER PLAINS. AS WELL AT THIS TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG A
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM TRACKS EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE FIRST WAVES TRACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS TRY TO FORM A COASTAL LOW WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTH SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW BOTH
MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WAVE TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UP
AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS THE SUPER
BLEND MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON POPS TO START THE EVENT ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AGAIN FOR WED AND THU.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVING STRONGER WAVE AFTERWARD PUTS NEEDED
FORCING IN QUESTION. THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE NEXT
STRONGER WAVE DIVES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS TRACKS A DEVELOPED
SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHEREAS THE EURO IS MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH A COASTAL LOW RACKING NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY FOR POPS...DID STICK WITH THE
SUPER BLEND MODEL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT AVERAGE
OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WX QUIET THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY MAKING FOR
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS. JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SITES LATER MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. RADAR INDICATES
THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST...IF ANY...IS VERY LIGHT.
CLEARING IS WORKING INTO NORTHEASTERN KY AND IT IS ALSO CLEAR IN
CENTRAL KY. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD
ALSO SLACKEN. THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
AREAS OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON UPSLOPE NW TO NNW FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PER AWOS AND KY DEPT OF
TRANSPORTATION REPORTS THIS IS FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT
2000 FEET AND ABOVE AND DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES
BELOW 2000 FEET. AS THE MOIST LAYER BELOW 800 MB CONTINUES TO BECOME
SHALLOWER...THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN...POSSIBLY TAPERING TO
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING AS MODELS POINT TOWARD
LOWERING PROBABILITIES OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -10C TO -14C RANGE SO THIS SUPPORTS THE LIQUID
VERSUS FROZEN PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO.
THE PRECIP IS NOW SO LIGHT THAT IT IS LIKELY NO LONGER ACCUMULATING...SO
WE LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN SPS ACROSS THE SE KY MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A POTENT PRE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS DEEPENING FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING FOR
PARTS OF LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THERE THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST...THERE WILL BE JUST
A THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS DEPARTING. THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AND AN
SPS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT TOO GONE FAR FROM MORNING LOWS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE CAA...PCPN...AND THICK CLOUDS. AT
THIS POINT...READINGS VARY FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE
MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...THOUGH 28 IS SEEN ON BLACK MOUNTAIN AND 32 AT
THE DORTON MESONET SITE. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE WITH STRONGLY RISING HEIGHTS
TO HELP US PUT THIS EARLY TASTE OF WINTER BEHIND US. IN GENERAL...
FOLLOWED THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER AFTER TONIGHT ONCE THE
PCPN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END IN THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW BRINGING A HARD FREEZE AND
FROST TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAWN. FOR THIS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER DAY TIME TEMPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOSE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN A GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATION COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS GETTING AS COLD
IF NOT COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE TONIGHT WHILE RIDGES SETTLE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WOULD ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO RESULT FROM THESE
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY OUR GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. WENT WITH
MORE OF A DIURNAL CURVE FROM THE NAM12 FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AFTER
EDITING THE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS. GIVEN HOW THE CONSSHORT WAS IN THE
TOO WARM INITIALLY HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM IT FOR TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...
WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WAS KEPT LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL ANCHORED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
EXITS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM EXITING THE REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WILL KEEP A STEADY
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE LACK OF HEATING AND THE SURFACE FEATURE
WEAKENING AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE EXTENDED. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO KEEP
FROM COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SO WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS
THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BIT OF FLIP FLOPPING IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2014
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
LOZ AND SME HAVE ALREADY GONE CLEAR AND IT WILL NOT BE MUCH LONGER
BEFORE JKL AND SJS CLEAR OUT AS WELL. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IT
APPEARS THAT JKL SHOULD BE CLEAR BY 9Z AND SJS BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
633 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND INTO
THE MARITIMES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO FIT THE CURRENT
TRENDS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF SNOW ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL AS RAIN. AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD PIVOTS ONSHORE...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND BACK TO THE WEST. CURRENTLY SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ABOUT 10
DEGREES...IS ERODING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WITH TIME AS THE COLUMN BECOMES
SATURATED. WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO PICK UP WITH PEAK WINDS
BEING REPORTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AS OF 07Z WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SEVERAL FORECAST
CHALLENGES STILL EXIST TODAY...MAINLY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
MESOSCALE BANDING THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREA OF NARROW
BUT STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE COME WESTWARD A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE NARROW
NATURE OF THE BAND WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A STORY OF
HAVES AND HAVE NOTS TODAY...AND BY A PRETTY THIN MARGIN.
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE
NAM...GFS...CANADIANS...ECMWF...AND HRRR TO DRIVE THE FORECAST
TODAY. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THAT THE BAND WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE
OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NH...WITH A
GREATER INLAND EXTENT ACROSS THE MID COAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN TO 32-33 DEGREES OR SO IN
PLACES WHERE THE BAND AND IT/S ASSOCIATED STRONG OMEGA SITS
OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD HELP THESE AREAS TO FLIP OVER TO SNOW. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED ACCUMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE...INCLUDING PORTLAND. WHILE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE REACHED IN MANY SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF A HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND WARRANTS
ONE...ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST MAINE HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AS HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACHIEVED. THE BIG WINNER MAY END
UP BEING THE CAMDEN HILLS.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FLUID AND CHANGEABLE TODAY DEPENDING
ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE BAND...SO BUST POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW
IS CERTAINLY HIGH. FOR EXAMPLE...IF THE BAND STAYS OFFSHORE OF
PORTLAND...LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL THERE...BUT WE THINK IT WILL COME
ONSHORE FOR A FEW HOURS. IF IT COMES IN AND SITS...MORE SNOW
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST IT COMES...NOT REALLY
SURE AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...FROM PAST EXPERIENCE...BANDING
TENDS TO COME A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT.
OUR CURRENT SNOWFALL GRAPHIC TAKES IN ACCOUNT OUR LATEST THOUGHTS
IN A NUTSHELL.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED. THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.
A VERY FLUID SITUATION TODAY...STAY TUNED!
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE WINDING UP IN OUR AREA AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM LIFTS NNE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING. FAR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE A FEW MORE FLAKES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY SOMERSET TO WALDO AND EASTWARD. WEST WINDS AND
DRY SLOTTING MOVES IN QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING. MONDAY
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE SAME EXTENT AS SUNDAY. AS
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE
TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT ESSENTIALLY
KEEPS US IN NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S.
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS OVER-RUNNING PATTERN
SETS UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST LIFT GENERALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RETURN
FLOW OF WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS EDGING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. EXPECT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY AND
BROAD OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO OVER-SPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE ANOTHER SOAKER AS GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISING SEVERAL INCHES OF QPF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PRECIP
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TODAY IN RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED 15Z TO 23Z
TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR THE OCEAN AND GALES ON
THE BAYS FOR TODAY AS STRONG COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED SOUTHERNMOST MAINE
AND SEACOAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ009-
013-014-021-022-026>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ008-
019-020-024-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ006-008>010-
013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
250 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND INTO
THE MARITIMES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AS OF 07Z WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SEVERAL FORECAST
CHALLENGES STILL EXIST TODAY...MAINLY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
MESOSCALE BANDING THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREA OF NARROW
BUT STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. ON AVERAGE...THE
00Z MODELS HAVE COME WESTWARD A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE NARROW
NATURE OF THE BAND WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A STORY OF
HAVES AND HAVE NOTS TODAY...AND BY A PRETTY THIN MARGIN.
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE
NAM...GFS...CANADIANS...ECMWF...AND HRRR TO DRIVE THE FORECAST
TODAY. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THAT THE BAND WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE
OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NH...WITH A
GREATER INLAND EXTENT ACROSS THE MID COAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN TO 32-33 DEGREES OR SO IN
PLACES WHERE THE BAND AND IT/S ASSOCIATED STRONG OMEGA SITS
OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD HELP THESE AREAS TO FLIP OVER TO SNOW. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED ACCUMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE...INCLUDING PORTLAND. WHILE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE REACHED IN MANY SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF A HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND WARRANTS
ONE...ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST MAINE HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AS HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACHIEVED. THE BIG WINNER MAY END
UP BEING THE CAMDEN HILLS.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FLUID AND CHANGEABLE TODAY DEPENDING
ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE BAND...SO BUST POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW
IS CERTAINLY HIGH. FOR EXAMPLE...IF THE BAND STAYS OFFSHORE OF
PORTLAND...LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL THERE...BUT WE THINK IT WILL COME
ONSHORE FOR A FEW HOURS. IF IT COMES IN AND SITS...MORE SNOW
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST IT COMES...NOT REALLY
SURE AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...FROM PAST EXPERIENCE...BANDING
TENDS TO COME A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT.
OUR CURRENT SNOWFALL GRAPHIC TAKES IN ACCOUNT OUR LATEST THOUGHTS
IN A NUTSHELL.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED. THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.
A VERY FLUID SITUATION TODAY...STAY TUNED!
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE WINDING UP IN OUR AREA AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM LIFTS NNE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING. FAR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE A FEW MORE FLAKES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY SOMERSET TO WALDO AND EASTWARD. WEST WINDS AND
DRY SLOTTING MOVES IN QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING. MONDAY
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE SAME EXTENT AS SUNDAY. AS
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE
TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT ESSENTIALLY
KEEPS US IN NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S.
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS OVER-RUNNING PATTERN
SETS UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST LIFT GENERALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RETURN
FLOW OF WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS EDGING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. EXPECT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY AND
BROAD OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO OVER-SPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE ANOTHER SOAKER AS GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISING SEVERAL INCHES OF QPF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PRECIP
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TODAY IN RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED 15Z TO 23Z
TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR THE OCEAN AND GALES ON
THE BAYS FOR TODAY AS STRONG COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED SOUTHERNMOST MAINE
AND SEACOAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ008-
009-013-014-021-022-026>028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NHZ008-010-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 08 UTC...DEEP LOPRES E OF THE DELMARVA/S OF ACK. NW FLOW
THUS FAR HAS CONTAINED SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GFS MDL SNDGS
DEPICT LLJ NEAR H9 OF 50+ KT. EVEN RAP HAS SPECKS OF 50 KT AND
FULL MIXING NEAR 45 KT. FORTUNATELY...DUE TO NOCTURNAL TIMING AND
A BKN-OVC CLD DECK...WNDS NOT MIXING DWN ALL THAT EFFICIENTLY. BUT
THE JET WILL BE AROUND TIL 12-14 UTC. AM CONCERNED THAT MIXING MAY
IMPROVE TWD DAWN PRIOR TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE LLJ. THAT THREAT
WOULD END BEFORE NOON. BASED ON MIXING SOMEWHERE BTWN MEAN MIXED
AND FULL PER GFS/RAP...HV OPTED TO RAISE WIND ADVY THRU
11AM...PRIMARILY FOR BALT-DC METRO WHICH IS WHERE LLJ WL RESIDE.
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW IN THE WRN HIGHLANDS THSI PAST EVNG. NO
MTR DATA SUGGESTS IT HAS CONTD SINCE...AND THE TRAJ NOT FVRBL FOR
UPSLOPE SHSN EITHER. BUT RGNL RDR COMPOSITE SUGGESTS SNOW/FLURRIES
TRAVELLING SWD ACRS PA INTO CWFA. MTNS SHUD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDTL PCPN...WHICH WUD BE SNOW. CANT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES E OF
THERE EITHER...BUT LOW DEWPTS WUD SUGGEST THERE WL BE SOME EVAP. AM
MAINTAINING CURRENT SNOW ACCUM FCST FOR THE MTNS...WHICH CONTAINS
OVNGT AMTS LESS THAN AN INCH...AND A FEW MORE FLURRIES IN THE MRNG.
WL ALSO ADD A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES E OF MTNS THRU DAWN.
HIPRES /SFC-H8/ WL BE BUMPING INTO THE APLCNS BY AFTN. MRNG CLD DECK
SHUD ERODE BY MIDDAY ACRS MOST OF CWFA. IT MAY HANG ON A WEE BIT
LONGER IN THE MTNS. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO THE P-GRAD. GIVEN CAA...THINK TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO REACH
50F. CHO-NAK SEWD HAS THE BEST CHC AT THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RDGG CONTS TO BLD ACRS CWFA TNGT-MON. WL STILL HV BRZY CONDS IN THE
EVNG...BUT THE GUSTS WL BE MORE IN THE ORDER OF 20 KT VS 30 KT. XPCT
A RAPID DECREASE FM THERE...W/ WINDS BLO 10 KT BY MIDNGT. HV NEAR
IDEAL RADL COOLING CONDS /DEWPTS IN THE LWR 20S/...ASSUMING THAT
WNDS DCPL. AM NOT CERTAIN THAT WL HPPN...SPCLY E OF I-95. DCPLG
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET WELL INLAND. WL BE ISSUING FREEZE WRNGS W OF
I-95 AND WATCHES ALONG I-95 FOR TNGT-MON MRNG.
A LTL PVA CROSSES AREA MON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FEW MID-DECK CLDS.
OTRW...AREA UNDER HIPRES. QSTN REGARDING HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WL
REBOUND. MAV MORE AGGRESSIVE ATTM...AND AM SKEPTICAL. KEEPING MON
MAXT CLSR TO PRVS FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
SINCE THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATE ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT MILD FALL AIR FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 70 IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THANKS
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS THE PARENT
LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND SLIDES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKEN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THUS...CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-81
WEDNESDAY.
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH REINVIGORATING TO
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO RESOLVE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH
THAN THE EURO...WHICH IN TURN WOULD BRING THE SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS SCENARIO WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AND QPF DURING
THIS PERIOD. TOOK THE NEW GFS SOLUTION INTO ACCOUNT BY INCREASING
THE DURATION OF POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
REGARDLESS OF THE LOW TRACK THAT COMES TO FRUITION...LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL FILL IN IN BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU VALID TAF PD. WINDS WL BE THE ISSUE. LLJ NEAR
2000-3000 FT ELEV CONTAINING 45-50 KT PASSING OVHD THRU 12-14 UTC.
ITS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS RMK AT CHO. ELSW...AM CARRYING G30-35
KT IN TAFS...WHICH WL CONT THRU MUCH OF DAY. WINDS SUBSIDING TNGT...
WITH MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDS OVNGT INTO MON.
VFR THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HIGH END SCA W/ A FEW GLW GUSTS ON THE WATERS. SUSPECT THERE
ARE MORE GLW CONDS THAN BEING REPRESENTED IN OBS...SPCLY IN THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE BAY. SIMLR CONDS THRU MIDDAY /MAY EVEN SPIKE A LTL
COME SUNRISE/ BEFORE WNDS GRDLY SUBSIDE. SCA ALREADY POSTED FOR
TNGT. HV TRIMMED THE MID-UPR PTMC FOR A ERLR END TIME BASED ON
XPCTD HIPRES RDG SPREADING EWD. THINK WE/LL BE UNDER CRIT FOR
MON...AND REMAIN SO THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WL HV GUSTY WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS TDA...BUT DONT BELIEVE THAT THE
WORST OF THE TWO WL COINCIDE...NOR WL FUELS BE PRIMED. MAY FALL
SHORT OF RED FLAGS... BUT ELEMENTS WUD BE UNFVRBL IF ANY FIRES DO
IGNITE. COORD W/ FIRE OFFICIALS LIKELY AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES LKLY TO INCREASE
FURTHER BY AFTN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
DCZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MDZ007-011-013-014-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-
009>011-013-014-016>018.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-009-
010.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ054-057.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ042-052>055-
057-501-502.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-
036>040-042-050>053-055-056-501-502.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS/CEB
MARINE...HTS/CEB
FIRE WEATHER...HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE
WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH)
AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z
MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD
ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT
COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70
PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
IN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE
BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO IWD/CMX AND SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS AT SAW
THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN SHRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO LIFR. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND
INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED MIXING
WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE
GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1237 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A WRN TROF...SHARP CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP
ERN TROF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N TO LWR MI AND THEN INTO QUEBEC. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS SEEN ON NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FOR
THAT MATTER WELL UPSTREAM TO THE S AND SW...PCPN IS NOT AN ISSUE
WITH THE ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
DESPITE CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN HIGH PRES SHIFTING E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVELS REMAINING TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERNS TODAY
AND EVEN ON INTO TONIGHT. UNDER SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...TEMPS
TODAY WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EVEN WITH JUST
SHALLOW MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 925MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS. IF MIXED
LAYER BUILDS JUST A BIT HIGHER...TEMPS WILL TOP 50F. BEST CHC OF
REACHING 50F WILL BE IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT SEE
DOWNSLOPING UNDER S WINDS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING WINDS UP TO
25-30KT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...MAKING THE AIR FEEL COOLER. STEADY
SW FLOW...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
WORK TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT. EXPECT MINS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. INTERIOR LOCATIONS THAT DECOUPLE MORE MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER
20S WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES MAY NOT FALL BLO 40F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT 12Z MONDAY...EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INITIALLY...WITH S WINDS USHERING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
OUT AHEAD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP SLIDING IN FROM THE SW SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE TO AROUND 50F. HELD OFF OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE FCST AS THE 500MB
RIDGE EXITS TO LAKE HURON AND THE SFC LOW STRETCHES FROM E MANITOBA
TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED DOWN OVER FAR
E MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO PUSH ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...SWEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER MI.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT E UPPER MI TUESDAY MORNING...WITH COOL W-NW
FLOW RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL BE THE ONLY THING LEFT AFTER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS E WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EXITING LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND N QUEBEC. W-NW FLOW WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY THURSDAY /WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI/.
850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN -6 TO -8C WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
HOW CLOSE THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL GET TO US FROM THE S ON THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER E MT/W ND AT 06Z WEDNESDAY...SINKING
ACROSS IA BY 00Z THURSDAY..AND NEAR THE S TIP OF LAKE MI BY 12Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MERGE WITH AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE A LONGER THAN FCST PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WITH 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -12C. THE NEXT LOW OF INTEREST OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND MERGES WITH THE THE INITIAL
LOW DEEPENING AS IT EJECTS N ACROSS THE NE ENGLAND STATES AND E
CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE AREA IS
STILL EXPERIENCING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LLWS AT KIWD/KSAW THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...BUT WITH IT BEING
MARGINAL OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A LOW
PRES TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT SOUTHERLY WINDS
MOSTLY IN THE 10-20KT RANGE TODAY/TONIGHT THOUGH OCNL PERIODS OF
15-25KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON MON...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE TUE/TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO
E WED/WED NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THU...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF WHERE WINDS WILL REACH 15-25KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A WRN TROF...SHARP CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP
ERN TROF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N TO LWR MI AND THEN INTO QUEBEC. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS SEEN ON NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FOR
THAT MATTER WELL UPSTREAM TO THE S AND SW...PCPN IS NOT AN ISSUE
WITH THE ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
DESPITE CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN HIGH PRES SHIFTING E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVELS REMAINING TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERNS TODAY
AND EVEN ON INTO TONIGHT. UNDER SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...TEMPS
TODAY WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EVEN WITH JUST
SHALLOW MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 925MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS. IF MIXED
LAYER BUILDS JUST A BIT HIGHER...TEMPS WILL TOP 50F. BEST CHC OF
REACHING 50F WILL BE IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT SEE
DOWNSLOPING UNDER S WINDS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING WINDS UP TO
25-30KT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...MAKING THE AIR FEEL COOLER. STEADY
SW FLOW...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
WORK TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT. EXPECT MINS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. INTERIOR LOCATIONS THAT DECOUPLE MORE MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER
20S WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES MAY NOT FALL BLO 40F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT 12Z MONDAY...EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INITIALLY...WITH S WINDS USHERING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
OUT AHEAD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP SLIDING IN FROM THE SW SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE TO AROUND 50F. HELD OFF OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE FCST AS THE 500MB
RIDGE EXITS TO LAKE HURON AND THE SFC LOW STRETCHES FROM E MANITOBA
TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED DOWN OVER FAR
E MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO PUSH ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...SWEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER MI.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT E UPPER MI TUESDAY MORNING...WITH COOL W-NW
FLOW RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL BE THE ONLY THING LEFT AFTER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS E WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EXITING LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND N QUEBEC. W-NW FLOW WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY THURSDAY /WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI/.
850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN -6 TO -8C WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
HOW CLOSE THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL GET TO US FROM THE S ON THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER E MT/W ND AT 06Z WEDNESDAY...SINKING
ACROSS IA BY 00Z THURSDAY..AND NEAR THE S TIP OF LAKE MI BY 12Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MERGE WITH AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE A LONGER THAN FCST PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WITH 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -12C. THE NEXT LOW OF INTEREST OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND MERGES WITH THE THE INITIAL
LOW DEEPENING AS IT EJECTS N ACROSS THE NE ENGLAND STATES AND E
CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
LLWS TO PERSIST AT KIWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING BY
15Z THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SW THERE.
KSAW WILL ALSO SEE WINDS PICK UP A BIT AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS THERE. WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A LOW
PRES TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT SOUTHERLY WINDS
MOSTLY IN THE 10-20KT RANGE TODAY/TONIGHT THOUGH OCNL PERIODS OF
15-25KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON MON...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE TUE/TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO
E WED/WED NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THU...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF WHERE WINDS WILL REACH 15-25KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
953 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS ALLOWING FOR SOME DRY SLOTTING
ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTHEAST IT WILL WRAP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY. HRRR MODEL RUNS STILL
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE MAINLY FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD. SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES AS WELL DUE TO THE DRY SLOT SO HAVE DECREASED SKY
COVER GRIDS QUITE A BIT TO WORD MORE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT IN THE
LIVINGSTON AREA AND STRONG WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TODAY. AS
A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE WESTERLY AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH TODAY. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OFF THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS BROUGHT SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TO EASTERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY. BURGESS JUNCTION RAWS REPORTED GUSTS TO JUST
UNDER 60 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF MINOR DAMAGE DUE TO THESE SUDDEN NON CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PRESENCE OF THIS DRIER AIR PLAYS WELL INTO
THE DOWNTICK IN POP FORECASTS FOR THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE
PAST FEW FORECAST SHIFTS. WEB CAMERAS AT COOKE CITY SHOW SNOW ON
THE GROUND...BUT NOTHING PRESENTLY FALLING...DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOTTING. AS THE DAY GOES ON AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...MORE MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME AVAILABLE...AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA RANGES SHOULD BEGIN.
EXPECT A FEW INCHES OR SO TO ACCUMULATE UP THERE...BUT FOR THE
FOOTHILL AND PLAINS AREAS IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINY...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKE OR TWO. INHERITED POP FORECASTS LOOKED
PRETTY GOOD. QUESTION IS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP
MAKES IT TO BILLINGS TODAY. KEPT POP VALUES LOWER FROM BILLINGS
EAST...BUT COULD EASILY SEE THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM BRING A
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY SHOWER TO THE MAGIC CITY.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO
THE DAKOTAS AND...AS A RESULT...BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY
MIDDAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...THE WINDS WILL SLACK
OFF AND DRY AND CALMER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME
COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BYZ GAP WIND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL WIND
EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON. THE SURFACE FLOW AND 700MB WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION ARE IN THE PREFERRED BOUNDS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING...AS THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN AND AROUND
THOSE AREAS. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG RANGE
ALSO STARTING TO LINE UP. CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS
REMAINS LOW AS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUING TO SHOW
UP.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING OVER SC/SE MT TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW AND
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE. OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS-
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH GAP FLOW WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE. STRENGTHENING
700MB WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. GFS HAS COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN MAINTAINING A ZONAL
FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A VORTICITY MAX
DRIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SHOWING A MAJOR SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IN THAT IT IS NOW BRINGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SHOWING A
ZONAL SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREADS EACH MODEL IS
SHOWING...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS
TODAY BUT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM KLVM
TO K6S0 INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 032/050 034/058 042/059 040/064 045/060 037/058
2/W 21/U 01/E 11/B 10/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 050 028/048 031/050 038/057 039/061 041/057 034/056
3/W 31/B 02/W 11/N 01/B 11/N 11/B
HDN 060 030/055 029/059 037/060 034/067 040/062 032/059
2/W 21/B 01/B 11/B 10/B 10/B 21/B
MLS 057 030/050 028/057 039/053 033/062 041/059 032/052
2/W 10/U 01/B 11/B 01/B 11/N 21/B
4BQ 060 031/050 028/058 039/055 034/065 040/061 031/055
0/B 10/B 01/B 11/B 00/B 00/N 21/B
BHK 058 029/046 028/052 036/048 031/056 038/057 030/047
0/B 11/N 01/B 11/E 00/B 00/N 21/B
SHR 060 030/049 026/058 032/059 032/066 037/061 030/058
2/W 32/W 01/B 11/B 00/B 00/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
458 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA MAINTAINING GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION ON TAP
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z TUE WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY IN ITS
WAKE...WITH EASTERLY PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND
OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 15Z TUE. WITH TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE THROUGH 00Z ON TUE...CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. TCC WILL HAVE NO AMD SKED DUE TO
CONTINUED EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. WILL WATCH AEG FOR POSSIBLE
EQUIPMENT ISSUES FROM 0415Z ONWARD THIS EVENING.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES
SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY
HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT
POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY
BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN.
THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF
GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO
UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP
QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK
THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO
DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER
NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT
MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE
REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF
THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH
TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT
OR GREATER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ519-520-532-533.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518.
&&
$$
43/52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
330 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL END ANY LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE
CAROLINAS AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 300 AM...RADAR SHOWS LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. THESE BANDS ARE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE...WITH GENERALLY NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF
THEM. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AN THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES WHERE PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY RAIN.
THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCALLY MODERATE...SOME FOCUSING DOWN THE
FINGER LAKE VALLEYS. ONLY THE HRRR HAS THE RESOLUTION TO CAPTURE
THESE MESO/MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS AND LATEST RUNS HAVE DONE AN
ADMIRABLE JOB. AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. THERE WILL BE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...BUT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN BANDS. IR SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS OF AROUND -15C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...BUT PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ADVECT PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES WILL SLOW THE CLEARING WITH
WITH LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS LINGERING INLAND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
EVENTUALLY CLOUDS WILL GIVEWAY TO SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
INLAND SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS...AND THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND A BRIEF BAND OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
WARM OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING FAIR...AND MILDER WEATHER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUTSIDE OF PASSING CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY. ALOFT OUR 850 HPA AIR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 3
TO 5C ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE MONDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL BRING WARM...AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BROAD SOUTHEAST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT MARKING THE WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS PUSHING NORTHWARD. THIS WARM FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY EXTEND EASTWARD ENOUGH TO BRING A STRAY SHOWER
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CLIPPING FAR NW NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OUR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS...AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A
STILL STRONG SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...AND
A NEARING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKE PLAIN...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION
TO THE BREEZE MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH LIFT ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS REACH US SUNSHINE WILL BRING A WARM EARLY
NOVEMBER DAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INLAND VALLEYS. A
FEW AREAS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING OUR
REGION...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT
SAID...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE MAY LEAVE
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD START THE PERIOD
QUIET WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...THIS RIDGE BETWEEN
THE RECENTLY DEPARTED SHORTWAVE AND A DIGGING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CORN BELT STATES.
THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO RACE
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORCED ALONG BY BRIEF UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION AS STRONG UPPER JET CORE ROTATES OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS
CLIPPER APPEARS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUING TO SHOW
UP IN LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGES. CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORTING AN ALL RAIN EVENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE
MAY MAKE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF A DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS.
THE AIRMASS CERTAINLY LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME TRAILING
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -10C. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) DEVELOPING FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY. AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST...THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS
COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED STRATUS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 09Z OR SO...AND
THEN IMPROVE FROM W-E AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH THE APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE AT JHW...WHERE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR. RAIN LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT TODAY...WHICH SOME OF THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED. A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS WILL
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
MONDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING MORE HEADLINES. THIS FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
205 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY. THIS WILL END ANY LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE
CAROLINAS AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR SHOWS LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. THESE BANDS ARE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...WITH
GENERALLY NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THEM.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AN THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
PRIMARILY RAIN. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCALLY MODERATE...SOME
FOCUSING DOWN THE FINGER LAKE VALLEYS. ONLY THE HRRR HAS THE
RESOLUTION TO CAPTURE THESE MESO/MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS AND LATEST
RUNS HAVE DONE AN ADMIRABLE JOB. AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF. THERE WILL BE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IN MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE IN BANDS. IR SHOWS CLOUD TOPS OF AROUND -15C WHICH IS
MARGINAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...BUT PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WASHED AWAY BY THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE...BUT
STILL A COOL TO COLD DAY ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
REGIONS...AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...DRIFTING OVERHEAD MONDAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WORK INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A
COLD NIGHT FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...BUT 30S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY MONDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST MARKING THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FORCE A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS...MODEL PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST A GOOD DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING OVERTOP THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
CASCADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN ADVANCE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY...THE
DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARMING STILL SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING SUPPLIED
BY SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET CORE...AUGMENTED DOWN LOW BY PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. NICE SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOULD PROPEL A DECENTLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE COMBINATION
OF PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE HELPING SPIKE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR AN INCH. BAND OF ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME THROUGH AS SHOWERS WITH THUNDER THREAT ALMOST
NIL...AS MID LEVEL LAPSES REMAIN LIMITED AND NEARLY ALL THE
INSTABILITY FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE IN
NATURE WITH INCREASING GUIDANCE SUPPORT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM TO RACE OVERHEAD...FORCED ALONG BY BRIEF UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION AS STRONG UPPER JET CORE ROTATES OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS
CLIPPER APPEARS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUING TO SHOW
UP IN LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGES. CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORTING AN ALL RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE MAY MAKE A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY A POSSIBILITY.
THE AIRMASS CERTAINLY LOOKS COLD ENOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -10C AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) DEVELOPING FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY. AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST...THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...ALTHOUGH LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED STRATUS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 09Z OR SO...AND
THEN IMPROVE FROM W-E AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH THE APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE AT JHW...WHERE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR. RAIN LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL BRING BRISK
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NE SECTIONS DUE
TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO MOST NRN 2/3 OF
AREA INTO EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SECONDARY
SHRT WV ROTATING INTO BASE OF UPR TROF PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH ENHANCED SCU NOW MOVING INTO NE NC. LATEST NAM12 AND
HRRR MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND INDICATE A LIGHT QPF
THREAT OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA INTO AFTN. INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINLGY...WITH 50/60 POPS FOR AREAS E OF HWY 17 AND NE OF HWY
70. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THESE AREAS AS WELL.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE AND CAA WILL
PRODUCE SCU CIGS AROUND 5K FT THIS AFTN WITH A FEW SPRINKLES PSBL AT
KEWN AND KPGV. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SKC
TONIGHT INTO MON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO DROP GALES TO SCA FOR WATERS S
OF OCRACOKE INLET AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG SCA AS
EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1143 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NE SECTIONS DUE
TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO MOST NRN 2/3 OF
AREA INTO EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SECONDARY
SHRT WV ROTATING INTO BASE OF UPR TROF PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH ENHANCED SCU NOW MOVING INTO NE NC. LATEST NAM12 AND
HRRR MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND INDICATE A LIGHT QPF
THREAT OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA INTO AFTN. INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINLGY...WITH 50/60 POPS FOR AREAS E OF HWY 17 AND NE OF HWY
70. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THESE AREAS AS WELL.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO DROP GALES TO SCA FOR WATERS S
OF OCRACOKE INLET AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG SCA AS
EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO MOST NRN 2/3 OF
AREA INTO EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SECONDARY SHRT
WV ROTATING INTO BASE OF UPR TROF PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
WITH ENHANCED SCU NOW MOVING INTO NE NC. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR
MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND INDICATE A LIGHT QPF THREAT
OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA INTO AFTN. INCREASED POPS ACCORDINLGY...WITH
50/60 POPS FOR AREAS E OF HWY 17 AND NE OF HWY 70. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THESE AREAS AS WELL.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL/JBM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. DID ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY YET THIS
MORNING BUT MOSTLY VIRGA...WITH A QUITE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT WITH A VORT LOBE LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR WERE HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE REALITY OF A TRACE AT THE WFO BISMARCK
COOP SITE FROM PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM A 10 KFT CLOUD
DECK...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN STRONG WAA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ELEVATED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WAA
CONTINUES CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG TO EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE CAA
DEVELOPS WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 5OS TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 PROJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLES WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE GRAZED
BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE COULD CLIP
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WAA...MOST OF THE PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO GENERATE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN TOWARD THE LAKE MANITOBA AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHIFTING WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KISN-KMOT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DROPS DOWN OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
A NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY YET THIS
MORNING BUT MOSTLY VIRGA...WITH A QUITE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT WITH A VORT LOBE LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR WERE HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE REALITY OF A TRACE AT THE WFO BISMARCK
COOP SITE FROM PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM A 10 KFT CLOUD
DECK...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN STRONG WAA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ELEVATED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WAA
CONTINUES CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG TO EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE CAA
DEVELOPS WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 5OS TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 PROJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLES WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE GRAZED
BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE COULD CLIP
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WAA...MOST OF THE PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO GENERATE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN TOWARD THE LAKE MANITOBA AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHIFTING WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KISN-KMOT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DROPS DOWN OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
A NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR WERE HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE REALITY OF A TRACE AT THE WFO BISMARCK
COOP SITE FROM PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM A 10 KFT CLOUD
DECK...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN STRONG WAA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ELEVATED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WAA
CONTINUES CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG TO EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE CAA
DEVELOPS WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 5OS TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 PROJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLES WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE GRAZED
BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE COULD CLIP
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WAA...MOST OF THE PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO GENERATE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
954 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUR WAY TODAY. A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
FREEZE. MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY. BACK-TO-BACK COLD
FRONTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE RUC AND MESO NAM AND CEILINGS AT ELKINS...BELIEVE
THAT MOISTURE IS NOW TOO SLIM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION. WILL ALSO LOWER SKY COVER IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY AND BEGINS MOVING OUT TUESDAY
AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SLOWED POPS DOWN
SOME TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY. SOME DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING OF BEST FORCING. GFS HAS IT ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER. SO DID NOT GO LIKELY
POPS YET...HOPING FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL CLEAR THINGS UP.
BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS...AND USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND FOR LOWS. OVERALL TRENDS WERE JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COMES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MUCH OF THE ENERGY GOES INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
NATION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LIFTS TOWARD
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CATCH UP TO THE
FIRST FRONT AND DIVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. NOT ENOUGH DEEP INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. THUS...MILD AND
SHOWERY WEATHER THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THEREAFTER...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS IN COLD 850 THERMAL TROF...DRYING UP DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SOME CEILINGS STILL AROUND 1 THSD FT BKN
OVER CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE MOST CEILINGS 25 HND TO 5 THSD FT
BKN.
AFTER 18Z...CEILINGS UNLIMITED AND VSBY UNRESTRICTED. PATCHES OF
MID DECK POSSIBLE AOA 10 THSD FT 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WITH SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z...THEN SUBSIDING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST
AFTER SUNRISE 12Z TO 14Z ALONG WESTERN SLOPES AND IN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE CLOUDS FINALLY LIFT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
927 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP BAND EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TX INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE MOISTURE FEED FUELING THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY ATYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED BY A SUBTLE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TX
AND FURTHER LOW LEVEL LIFT SUPPLIED BY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
HAS ALREADY SLIPPED THROUGH NORTHWEST OK. LATEST DATA REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN NW OF A KMLC-KFYV LINE TONIGHT AND
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES LIKELY. LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS HRRR LIGHTNING FORECASTS OF ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT COVERAGE.
UPDATED FORECAST WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT WITH COOLER POST
FRONTAL TEMPS SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW PER LATEST RAP
DATA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 57 42 65 / 100 90 10 0
FSM 55 61 48 64 / 60 90 50 20
MLC 58 60 44 63 / 70 90 40 10
BVO 50 57 35 66 / 100 60 10 0
FYV 55 59 41 62 / 80 90 20 10
BYV 53 60 43 61 / 80 90 20 10
MKO 54 57 43 64 / 90 90 20 10
MIO 50 56 42 65 / 100 80 10 0
F10 52 56 43 64 / 90 90 20 10
HHW 59 65 50 62 / 40 100 70 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AT MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NARROW STRIP OF NW
FLOW UPSLOPED INDUCED CLOUDS STEADILY DISSIPATING ALONG THE TN
LINE. OTHER THAN A FEW WISPY CIRRUS LATER TODAY...THIS WILL PERMIT
CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CHILLY THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE DESPITE THE
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...AND THAT IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN THE MTNS
WHERE THE SNOWPACK WILL START TO MELT OFF. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE ENDED THIS MORNING...BUT SOME MOUNTAIN ROADS IN
SHADOWS WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW END GUSTS
IN THE NW FLOW BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL PERMIT WINDS TO
GO LIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET BEEN SHUT OFF. THE
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT LOOKS ON
TARGET...WITH JUST THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION MORE QUESTIONABLE
FOR FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THESE AREAS...FROST COULD BE
WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SUN...H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT...OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY TUE MORNING. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP BY TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
STATES ON MON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL
YIELD CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS. BY TUE
NIGHT...POPS RAMP UP TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
MTNS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MON AND WARM
TO NEAR CLIMO BY TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130AM EST SUN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON WED AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE SE STATES THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...THEN LIFTS NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRI NIGHT.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ON
WED...REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS BY AROUND 6Z THU. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z THU AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI. LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER
DURING THE FROPA AS AREAS OF BETTER JET STREAK ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND STRONGER PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LIMITED
BUOYANCY...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL ATT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 30-50 PERCENT RANGE LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU...TAPERING OFF BY THU EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRI INTO SAT WITH LINGERING NW PRECIP POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TN LINE THROUGH EARLY FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU....5-7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS...SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE
TODAY...WITH NAM AND RAP PROFILES SUGGESTING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS
INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ONCE MIXING STARTS...CONTINUING UNTIL
NEAR SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TOWARD DAYBREAK...QUITE A BIT OF FROST
COULD FORM ON AIRPLANES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN
A FEW THIN HIGH CIRRUS. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH MIXING
TODAY...PERHAPS TO 20 KT OR BETTER...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT NW THIS
EVENING. FROST FORMATION UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AT THE AIRFIELDS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL START TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME CEILING/VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
SCZ004>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
656 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
PCPN/CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF SCNTRL SD SO HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF POPS IN THE FCST. WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED
ACRS WRN SD. NO OTHER CHANGED NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN
UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS
WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND.
PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND
WEBCAMS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST
AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN
CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA.
ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET
COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED
MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND
BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
NWRN SD WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Messy conditions are anticipated next 24 hours as an upper level
trough approaches from the west, and meets an incoming cold front
to the north. Latest short-range models fropa KHOB at around 04Z,
and KFST/KPEQ by 16Z Tuesday. All terminals are currently VFR, but
deteriorating cigs/vsbys should coincide roughly w/fropa. The only
question is to what degree? Once again, the NAM buffer soundings
take conditions to LIFR/VLIFR everywhere but KINK/KPEQ, which only
go to MVFR. Latest HRRR is not as bullish about cigs, keeping lwr
cigs east. Looking at post-frontal obs to the north, and model
performance last night, we`ll opt to keep cigs/vsbys MVFR or
better attm. Also, we/ve inserted a mention of convection this
evening, esp. SE NM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
While precipitation has been slow to develop over our area today,
regional radar shows showers and some thunderstorms extending from
near El Paso northeastward through the Texas Panhandle and into
Western Oklahoma. Current expectation is for the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms to gradually increase and shift east across the
forecast area over the next 12 to 36 hours as the positively tilted
southern branch of a longwave trough continues to edge closer to
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Persistent cloudcover and thus
a lack of sufficient diurnal destabilization have served to decrease
confidence in any widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon
and evening, despite ample shear and dynamic support thanks to the
advancing trough and 300mb jet axis. There may be a better chance of
thunder late tonight and early Tuesday ahead of a cold front that
will drop south through the area, but the biggest threat will be
locally heavy rainfall which could result in localized flash
flooding, especially if any cell training occurs. The threat of
heaviest rainfall tonight looks to be over the Southeast New Mexico
Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin. Tuesday, the area of
heaviest rainfall will shift east, affecting mainly the eastern
Permian Basin as well as the lower Trans Pecos. As drier air filters
into the area in the wake of the front Tuesday, precipitation will
gradually be shunted to the south and east, and have thus maintained
a dry forecast beyond Wednesday.
Aside from the prospect of measurable rainfall for much of the area,
the other big focus in the near term will be temperatures. Due to
expected rainfall, as well as cloudcover and cold air advection
behind the front, do not expect much diurnal recovery on Tuesday.
High temperatures across the area Tuesday are only expected to rise
about 5 to 10 degrees above tonight`s lows, even less for areas
north of I-20. Currently, it looks like highs Tuesday in the upper
40s to low to mid 50s north of I-20 will be possible, with mid 60s
to near 70 degrees further south toward the Rio Grande Valley, well
below normal for this time of year. Lows will be quite chilly as
well, with mid to upper 30s possible for higher elevations as well
as the Southeast New Mexico Plains and western Permian Basin on both
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. A slow recovery will take place
through the remainder of the week, though under the influence of
continued northwest flow aloft and a surface high which will sink
southward into North Texas, do not expect to see a return to
southerly flow until Friday, when temperatures could climb back to
the lower 70s. Another cold front looks to be in the offing for
Saturday, which could drop temperatures back into the upper 60s for
much of the area.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Tricky situation next 24 hours, as the upper-lvl trough approaches
West Texas/SE NM. VFR conditions prevail all terminals, but latest
NAM buffer soundings develop LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys everywhere but
KFST/KPEQ overnight, beginning around 06Z. However, the HRRR and
GFS keep these conditions east of the area. Given the position of
the trough, a strong LLJ is expected overnight, w/models
suggesting 50+kts possible over the PB. This, combined w/abundant
high cloud to retard radiational cooling, suggests cigs/vsbys will
be somewhat better than what buffer soundings suggest. Current
TAFs keep MVFR or better for the next 24 hours, and see no reason
to take them any lower attm. Conditions should improve to VFR all
terminals by 18Z Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
The main focus this forecast period continues to be a deep trough
currently over the western CONUS which will move through our region
over the next couple of days, and associated precipitation chances.
Models continue to be in good agreement regarding the progressive
nature of the aforementioned trough, which will develop an
increasingly positive tilt as it moves toward the central CONUS.
Persistent, deep southwesterly flow will allow for continued
moisture transport ahead of the system, ultimately resulting in
precipitable water values of roughly 1.00" to 1.20" across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico per model soundings. While
precipitation chances tonight are highest over higher terrain,
Monday through Tuesday will see the chance for precipitation
overspread the rest of the area. Model soundings for Monday
afternoon indicate the presence of weak elevated CAPE, and given
ample ascent under the right entrance region of an upper level jet
rounding the base of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. While the
current threat of severe weather is marginal, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with storms that develop, and localized flash
flooding may be a concern, especially if training occurs.
The Monday night through Tuesday time frame still looks to be the
best window of opportunity for widespread measurable rainfall from
this system as the dynamics of the advancing trough combine with a
cold front that is progged to move south through the area.
Precipitation will then be shunted further to the south and east as
drier air filters in behind the front, with dry conditions expected
from Wednesday evening onward. Temperatures Tuesday will drop well
below normal due to the aforementioned front, resulting in very
little diurnal recovery as highs will top out in the middle 50s to
low 60s. Surface high pressure will sink southward through the
plains and into North Texas by Thursday into Friday, resulting in
winds veering to the south as temperatures slowly moderate back
toward normal. Both the GFS and ECMWF currently indicate another
shortwave dropping south on the back side of the trough, which could
drag another cold front through the area on Saturday, though a lack
of available moisture would preclude any mention of precipitation.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS IS GENERATING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ARE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LOWER DECK DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN AS LOWER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO SIGN OF THIS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM AND 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL RATHER LARGE BASED
ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS. WILL BRING IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL
ANOTHER PUSH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVES LATE. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND. LOWS RANGING THROUGH
THE 30S.
MONDAY...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THOUGH
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT SUPER DRY
THOUGH...AND ANY SHOWERS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP TO
THE GROUND. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS TIME AND
WILL HAVE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE DRY AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF
PRECIP FOR THE MORNING BUT CHANCES WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE
MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
SATURATION AND BEING POSITIONED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET.
WARMER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE
NORTH WHILE THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IS TO
THE SOUTH. EXPECT A LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
LACK OF MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE THE MODELS. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AND PRODUCES THE MOST PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO HAS THE
MOST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SOMEWHERE IN WISCONSIN.
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 5000FT CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR SINCE THERE IS NO SIGN OF THIS UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO
MORE BULLISH IN MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. STARTED THE BROKEN CEILINGS BY LATE
MORNING...THOUGH THIS COULD GET PUSHED BACK DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE CURRENTLY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
343 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS/BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
LARGE HI PRES RIDGE PUSHING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. UPSTREAM RH IS FAIRLY HIGH THRU
THE H100-H85 LYR...GENERALLY ARND 80PCT. THE RESULTING LOW LVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED PWAT VALUES TO CREEP UP TO ARND
0.75". HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z PENINSULA
SOUNDINGS...WHILE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NO ORGANIZED MID LVL
VORTICITY...SINKING OMEGA VALUES...AND UPR LVL CONVERGENCE THANKS TO
A 90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK THAT HAS CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS DESCENDING
LEFT REAR QUAD.
WITH 15-20KTS OF ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR AND RELATIVELY
HI LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OR TWO
WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE...MAINLY S OF CAPE CANAVERAL. INDEED...
RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING ISOLD RETURNS OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE
PAST FEW HRS...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH VERTICAL MOTION CAPPED WELL BLO 10KFT...ANY
POTENTIAL RAINFALL WOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
COASTAL TEMPS WILL LARGELY REFLECT THE LATEST SURF TEMPS...WHICH ARE
RUNNING IN THE U60S N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...TRANSITIONING TO THE U70S
FROM FT. PIERCE INLET SWD. GIVEN THESE NUMBERS...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS
A TOUCH HIGH ALNG THE COAST...WILL HOLD THEM IN THE M/U70S. FURTHER
INLAND...OCNL FAIR WX STRATOCU SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SFC
HEATING...READINGS SHOULD REACH THE U70S N OF I-4 AND L80S TO THE
SOUTH. THE PGRAD WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE PUSHED ENOUGH LOW LVL
MOISTURE ACRS THE STATE TO DRIVE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE IN THE
U50S/L60S. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE L/M60S INTERIOR AND M/U60S ALONG
THE COAST (4-8F ABV AVG).
NOTE: THERE WILL BE A HIGH TO EXTREME RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY AS A
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL IMPACTS THE E FL COAST...SEE MARINE SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BEACH GOES ARE URGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF.
WED-THU...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WED WILL BREAK DOWN THU AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON WED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 80S INLAND.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING ABOVE
CLIMO MINS AND LIGHT WINDS...MOS IS HINTING AT FOG. SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ADD FOG TO
FORECAST YET.
MID LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE PRE FRONTAL POPS ON THU.
WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MID 80S HIGHS
AREAWIDE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THU NIGHT AND BRING
CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH.
FRI-NEXT TUE...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HANG UP OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMAS
BY SAT AND LIFT SLIGHTLY BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
MOISTENING. CONSENSUS MOS PLACES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTH SAT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS BY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN DRY
THINGS OUT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS CONTINUING A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 05/12Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...AREAS CIGS BTWN FL040-060.
CSTL SITES...BTWN 04/15Z-04/23Z ERLY SFC WND G20-22KTS...AFT 05/00
SLGT CHC OF -SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH ERLY
BREEZE ACRS THE SW ATLC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LONG PD
ERLY SWELLS INTO THE E FL COAST THAT WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN IDEAL
BOATING CONDITIONS. CANAVERAL AND SCRIPPS BUOYS MEASURING 6-7FT
SEAS...MOST OF WHICH IS DUE TO A 5-6FT 14SEC SWELL. WITH WINDS
15-20KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE AND SRN LEGS...OVERALL BOATING CONDS WILL
BE LESS THAN IDEAL.
WED-SUN...ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WED AND DROP BELOW 15 KNOTS
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ON
THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRI LOOKS LIKE A BAD BOATING DAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 KNOTS. AFTER THESE GUSTY
WINDS...SAT IS FORECAST TO HAVE DIMINISHED NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SHOWING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SNEAK PEAK
AT SUN SHOWS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 64 82 65 / 10 20 20 10
MCO 80 63 84 64 / 0 10 10 10
MLB 77 69 82 67 / 10 20 20 10
VRB 79 70 82 66 / 10 20 20 10
LEE 79 61 84 64 / 0 10 10 10
SFB 78 62 84 65 / 0 10 10 10
ORL 79 63 84 66 / 0 10 10 10
FPR 79 69 82 66 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONE BRANCH JOINS INTO A PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND BRANCH DROP QUICKLY SOUTHWARD INTO A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS ENERGY IS LEFT
BEHIND AFTER A TROUGH FRACTURE WHICH SENT THE MORE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MIGRATING EASTWARD. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE THEN SEE THE TWO
STREAMS BECOME CONVERGENT AS THE MERGE AND RIDGE UP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION/ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ALOFT. REGIONAL EVENING RAOBS AND NWP TIME-HEIGHT
PLOTS SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE OUR HEADS WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TOWARD THE UPPER TROP...AND ALSO WITHIN A
THIN LAYER BELOW 850MB ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED WESTWARD WITH THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MOISTURE
LAYER IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF STRATOCU MIGRATING ONSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THESE
PATCHES HAVE A TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE AS THE MOVE FURTHER
INLAND...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...1028MB HIGH CENTER REMAIN PARKED NEAR THE GA/SC
BORDER THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. OUR
POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS PROVIDING THE PENINSULA
WITH A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT NEARLY AS COOL
OUT THERE AS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH OF
I-4...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A BIT
OF A WARM-UP FROM THE COOL TEMPERATURES OF MONDAY. FIRST OFF WE WILL
BE STARTING OFF CONSIDERABLY WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON MONDAY
MORNING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PIVOT
EASTWARD AND DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON ADDING LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/SUPPRESSION. AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING A
STEADY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
FREE...WITH THE STACKED RIDGING IN PLACE AND DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING UP TO 5000FT OR SLIGHTLY
BETTER WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR
MOST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 70S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE). CURRENT
GRIDS SHOW 81-82 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY BE A DEGREE OR 2
OPTIMISTIC...BUT SOMEWHERE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AROUND 850MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PATCHES OF STRATOCU MIGRATING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. WILL CALL GENERAL CONDITIONS TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY.
THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE
ANY MORE 40S TONIGHT OVER THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE COOLEST
READING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S AROUND CHIEFLAND. ELSEWHERE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND.
WEDNESDAY...
THE PROCESSES THAT WILL BRING US OUR NEXT COLD FRONT/AIRMASS CHANGE
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION...HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS WILL HOLD FOR ONE
MORE DAY AND KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER CLIMO FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS EFFICIENT MIXING WORKS ON A LOWER LEVEL (950-850MB)
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
LEADING TO OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MORE ON
THIS PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE FLAT RIDGING RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST TO A LOW IN THE OHIO VALLY. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WESTWARD ACROSS GA/FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THROUGH FRI THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AND DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
THEN EASTWARD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA RETREATS AS THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD...
REACHING SOUTH FL BY LATE FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
GULF REGION FROM THE PLAINS.
FOR SAT-MON...THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS UP INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN
TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES TO THE ATLANTIC BY MON...WITH
NEARLY ZONAL OR WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GULF SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION SUN FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT THU DRY THEN BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT. SAT AFTERNOON
MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...A RESULT OF
THE FRONT LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT. TEMPERATURES START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE
OF NORMAL THEN GRADUALLY COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S. RELAXED EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW VEER AND
BECOMES ROBUST FRI...ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF WITH SOME HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SLACKEN SOME
WITH A NORTHERN COMPONENT. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WHERE VERY SIMILAR
UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THERE WERE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...MAINLY
TIMING AND LOCATIONS. IN THOSE CASES LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
CMC.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHES OF STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 4KFT. WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY.
&&
.MARINE...
1025MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE BRIEFLY REACHING
CAUTIONARY LEVELS IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN FALL BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
WINDS AND WAVES APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY LATER THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 63 83 67 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 81 62 84 67 / 0 0 10 0
GIF 80 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 81 60 83 66 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 80 55 83 60 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 79 66 82 70 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING VALUES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HRRR
AND RUC FIELDS INDICATE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GO WITH POPS AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BY 12Z...WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME
NORTHWEST WITH LOWER POPS REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARMER THAN MOS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
READINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PROGS SHOW ADEQUATE THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE FORCING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
THUS WENT LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TIMED THEM AS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
BLEND OF MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH SOME CLEARING NORTHWEST AND
CLOUDY/CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THAT FRONT.
THIS MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. KEPT LOW POPS THERE DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WENT
DRY...BUT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT LOW POPS ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THE
MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS STRONGEST FORCING MIGHT NOT BE ALIGNED WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE. THUS KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOWER VFR CIGS IN WESTERN
INDIANA BEING OBSERVED AND EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON. LATEST HRRR
ALSO LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE FOR PRECIP REACHING IND AFTER
12Z...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 13-14Z...AGAIN ONGOING TAF HANDLES THIS
WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EAST SO FAR THIS EVENING BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT
STRATOCU TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE HOOSIER
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WITH A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE ALOFT...SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS ALL NIGHT.
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING BULK OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF KLAF
AND KHUF UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH AN EXPANSION EAST TO KBMG AND
KIND CLOSER TO MIDDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATING
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STEADIER SHOWERS AND REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL END AT KLAF PRIOR TO SUNSET... WITH RAIN ENDING AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
W/SW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLEARING PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING VALUES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HRRR
AND RUC FIELDS INDICATE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GO WITH POPS AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BY 12Z...WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME
NORTHWEST WITH LOWER POPS REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARMER THAN MOS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
READINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PROGS SHOW ADEQUATE THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE FORCING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
THUS WENT LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TIMED THEM AS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
BLEND OF MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH SOME CLEARING NORTHWEST AND
CLOUDY/CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THAT FRONT.
THIS MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. KEPT LOW POPS THERE DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WENT
DRY...BUT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT LOW POPS ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THE
MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS STRONGEST FORCING MIGHT NOT BE ALIGNED WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE. THUS KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EAST SO FAR THIS EVENING BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT
STRATOCU TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE HOOSIER
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WITH A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE ALOFT...SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS ALL NIGHT.
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING BULK OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF KLAF
AND KHUF UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH AN EXPANSION EAST TO KBMG AND
KIND CLOSER TO MIDDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATING
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STEADIER SHOWERS AND REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL END AT KLAF PRIOR TO SUNSET... WITH RAIN ENDING AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
W/SW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLEARING PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK...REACHING VALUES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HRRR
AND RUC FIELDS INDICATE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GO WITH POPS AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BY 12Z...WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME
NORTHWEST WITH LOWER POPS REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARMER THAN MOS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
READINGS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PROGS SHOW ADEQUATE THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE FORCING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
THUS WENT LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. TIMED THEM AS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING NORTHWEST
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
BLEND OF MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH SOME CLEARING NORTHWEST AND
CLOUDY/CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THAT FRONT.
THIS MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. KEPT LOW POPS THERE DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WENT
DRY...BUT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT LOW POPS ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THE
MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS STRONGEST FORCING MIGHT NOT BE ALIGNED WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE. THUS KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TIMING OF POPS AS THREE
SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN VARYING DEGREES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION.
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE GFS HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN EAST COAST.
THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO MOVE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
QPF TO THE EAST AS ITS 06Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
PREFER TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS GOING PER THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
THIS AND CONSISTENCY REASONS. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER OF ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER FEATURE
WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS WITH LOW LEVEL MODEL THICKNESSES
PLAYING TUG OF WAR WITH THE LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN ONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY BUT THEN MODELS
COME INTO DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH...THEY ALL BRING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAD MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE DRIER MOISTURE FIELD OF THE ECMWF WAS
LAGGING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE GFS HAS SOME QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND DO
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL THE MODELS COME
TOGETHER MORE.
WITH MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONLY BRIEF BREAKS...WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S PER REGIONAL
BLEND LOOK GOOD. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...SHOULD NOT SEE A
HUGE DROP IN NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY LOWS IN THE 30S A
GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EAST SO FAR THIS EVENING BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT
STRATOCU TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE HOOSIER
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WITH A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE ALOFT...SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS ALL NIGHT.
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING BULK OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF KLAF
AND KHUF UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH AN EXPANSION EAST TO KBMG AND
KIND CLOSER TO MIDDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATING
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STEADIER SHOWERS AND REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL END AT KLAF PRIOR TO SUNSET... WITH RAIN ENDING AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
W/SW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLEARING PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1057 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN SFC SYSTEM JUST SW OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
FORCING BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH THETAE ADVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KS HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER EASTERN KS. BOTH MESO SCALE
MODELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE HAVE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SHIFTING EAST OVER OUR AREA
WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BOTH EXPANDING THE SHOWERS WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN MOVING OUT THE SHOWERS BY 07Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH
HAVE BEEN DRY MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SATURATED BY 00Z AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z
WEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 06-07Z
OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
THROUGH 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR BY MORNING. MIXING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP MINS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BEYOND THE MID 30S OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...MINS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO FLUCTUATE ON STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ONLY CERTAINTY IS TIMING AND SOME OF THE THERMAL TRENDS AS ALL
MODELS SHOWING SUBSEQUENT PUSHES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST COMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE END AND JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...SO STILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LIKELIES GOING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS THEN BRIEFLY PUSH BACK INTO THE CWA WITH BRIEF RIDGING
ALOFT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONGER WAVE THEN DIGGING INTO THE REGION FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS AGAIN REVERTING BACK TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS KIND OF
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...VERSUS THE DEEP TROUGH FROM
RUNS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUIDANCE CHANCE POPS
DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT/STRENGTH. DECENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO AGAIN COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALSO FALLING TEMPS LOOK
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...FOR NOW HAVE JUST STUCK WITH ONLY SMALL DIURNAL RISES AT
THIS TIME.
MAIN DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS THE EC DIGS ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
US AS THE WAVE REMAINS WEAKER AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SAME PATH AS
THE OTHER IMPACTING MORE OF THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOVE
VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -10C OR COLDER BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR AT LEAST A MAJOR
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE...AND IF THE EC IS CORRECT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
FRONT CROSSING THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING AND LOW
CEILINGS IMPROVING. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE OFF BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
/PRELIMINARY LONG TERM/
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY LINGERING
LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR LAKE MI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EAST OF MARQUETTE ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1241 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE
WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH)
AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z
MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD
ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT
COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70
PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1035 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AMD NOT SKED FOR TCC WITH CONTINUING PROBLEM WITH CIG
SENSORS...BUT GOOD OBSERVATIONS SO FAR FROM AEG FOR CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT FULL TAF SERVICE. TROUGH CLOSING INTO LOW OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD TO BOOT HEEL TO TCC
LINE...AND SFC LOW MOVES TO THE TX BIG BEND COUNTRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND THEN EAST...WITH EASTERLY GUSTS
THROUGH CENTRAL MT CHAIN GAPS SQUIRTING OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. UP SLOPE FLOW WILL INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ON EAST
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TUE AFTERNOON.
TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT...TRAPPING IN CLOUD
COVER...MT OBSCURATION...AND KEEPING SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS OVER
SOUTHEAST NM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18Z ONWARD PAST
SUNDOWN TUESDAY.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1019 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.UPDATE...
REALLY TOUGH DECISION TO MAKE...BUT AFTER LOOKING AT CLOUD
TRENDS...LATEST MODEL DATA...THE APPEARANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IN SOCORRO COUNTY...PROSPECT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONSULTING WITH SENIOR FORECASTER...FELT IT WAS BEST TO CANCEL
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...GUADALUPE
COUNTY AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. KEPT HARD FREEZE WARNING
GOING IN SANTA FE AS THE AIRPORT THERE WAS ALREADY AT 32 DEGREES
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS THERE AS OF 10 PM. ALSO INCREASED/EXPANDED
POPS A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS IN AND NEAR SOCORRO COUNTY.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES
SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY
HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT
POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY
BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN.
THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF
GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO
UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP
QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK
THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO
DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER
NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT
MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE
REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF
THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH
TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT
OR GREATER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1019 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
REALLY TOUGH DECISION TO MAKE...BUT AFTER LOOKING AT CLOUD
TRENDS...LATEST MODEL DATA...THE APPEARANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IN SOCORRO COUNTY...PROSPECT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONSULTING WITH SENIOR FORECASTER...FELT IT WAS BEST TO CANCEL
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...GUADALUPE
COUNTY AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. KEPT HARD FREEZE WARNING
GOING IN SANTA FE AS THE AIRPORT THERE WAS ALREADY AT 32 DEGREES
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS THERE AS OF 10 PM. ALSO INCREASED/EXPANDED
POPS A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS IN AND NEAR SOCORRO COUNTY.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...458 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA MAINTAINING GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION ON TAP
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z TUE WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY IN ITS
WAKE...WITH EASTERLY PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND
OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 15Z TUE. WITH TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE THROUGH 00Z ON TUE...CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. TCC WILL HAVE NO AMD SKED DUE TO
CONTINUED EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. WILL WATCH AEG FOR POSSIBLE
EQUIPMENT ISSUES FROM 0415Z ONWARD THIS EVENING.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES
SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY
HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT
POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY
BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN.
THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF
GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO
UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP
QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK
THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO
DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER
NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT
MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE
REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF
THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH
TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT
OR GREATER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1123 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING AT OR JUST AFTER ISSUE TIME. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA FROM
06-09Z...AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST 09-14Z. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN OK DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TO VFR OVER NE OK TUE AFTERNOON AND
FINALLY ACROSS W AR AFTER 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP BAND EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TX INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE MOISTURE FEED FUELING THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY ATYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED BY A SUBTLE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TX
AND FURTHER LOW LEVEL LIFT SUPPLIED BY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
HAS ALREADY SLIPPED THROUGH NORTHWEST OK. LATEST DATA REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN NW OF A KMLC-KFYV LINE TONIGHT AND
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES LIKELY. LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS HRRR LIGHTNING FORECASTS OF ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT COVERAGE.
UPDATED FORECAST WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT WITH COOLER POST
FRONTAL TEMPS SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW PER LATEST RAP
DATA.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
958 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
PCPN/CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF SCNTRL SD SO HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF POPS IN THE FCST. WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED
ACRS WRN SD. NO OTHER CHANGED NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN
UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS
WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND.
PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND
WEBCAMS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST
AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN
CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA.
ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET
COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED
MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND
BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...JOHNSON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will spread across the region tonight into
Tuesday with breezy winds developing Tuesday afternoon. This will
be the wettest storm system of the week. The remainder of the week
will feature mild temperatures with occasional periods of light
precipitation. A stronger storm system will bring the potential
for windy conditions late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Grids were updated some in an attempt to time the brief break in
the steady rain tonight occurring over much of the lowland
locations right now. Opted to keep the text based zones as is
with the high pop mention of steady rain based on this expectation
that rain will again appear for most lowland locations by 2AM PST
based on recent HRRR model runs. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Steady rain should reappear for most lowland locations
near 10Z and linger for much of the day. Wind is expected to
increase and become gusty as this wet frontal zone passes through,
with potential for low level wind shear if these robust upper
level winds do not mix down to the surface tonight. The back edge
of the wet frontal zone passes through same locations near 21Z
and allow for decreased precipitation activity. Between 0-6Z
Wednesday the front is making progress out of North Idaho so
precipitation should be over for aviation sites along with a
decrease in wind. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 45 54 43 53 46 57 / 100 100 10 20 30 50
Coeur d`Alene 43 51 41 53 44 56 / 100 100 20 20 30 60
Pullman 44 54 45 57 48 61 / 100 100 30 10 20 30
Lewiston 47 59 48 62 47 66 / 60 100 20 20 20 20
Colville 44 54 39 50 43 54 / 100 100 10 30 50 60
Sandpoint 43 49 41 50 42 53 / 100 100 30 20 40 70
Kellogg 41 45 42 50 43 53 / 100 100 60 20 20 70
Moses Lake 48 63 45 57 45 61 / 80 30 10 20 30 30
Wenatchee 46 61 43 56 46 59 / 90 30 10 20 40 40
Omak 43 58 39 52 42 56 / 100 30 10 30 50 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION...TIMING
OF PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. THOUGH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM THIS EVENING OVER IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN EXIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT
LINGERS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A POTENT BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TO THAT PART
OF THE STATE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. BUT CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHERE DEEPER DRYING HOLDS FIRM. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAYS
READINGS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
PCPN CHANCES AND TYPE WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.
AT LEAST TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...
ONE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A COUPLE SURGES
OF ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE WED-THU CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AS THEY HAVE A SIMILAR SFC LOW TRACK (THRU SOUTHERN WI)
AND TIMING. PCPN WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDDAY...THEN
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NC/FAR NE/C WI ON WEDS
NGT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS. MIXED RAIN/SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMS. THE GFS IS INITIALLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LESS SNOW ACCUMS THAN THE ECMWF.
THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVG THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDL SNOW ACCUMS AND
A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SUPPORT A COUPLE
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ATTM. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT THIS
OUT...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESSS...
IT LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FOX VALLEY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z TUESDAY. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND SHOWERS END
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
745 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ083-085>089-
093>099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
946 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Cold front is located roughly along the I-55 corridor at 9 am,
with the back edge of the rain shield located along it. Rain
covers about the southeast half of the CWA except the extreme
southeast tip near Lawrenceville, where dry air has limited the
progression thus far, but rain should be more steady down there
soon. Low level jet has been spreading the rain northeast from
southern Missouri. The jet trajectory will shift south of the
forecast area early this afternoon, with some breaks in the rain
developing as the afternoon progresses. Latest RAP model guidance
shows a slow eastward progression of the front to near the Indiana
border by sunset. Large area of clearing off to the northwest in
Iowa, but guidance showing the large cirrus shield keeping our
skies mainly cloudy, except closer to sunset northwest of the
Illinois River.
Updated zones/grids were sent earlier to reflect the latest rain
trends, and to make some minor adjustments to the temperature
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain has spread across the western half of the KILX CWA early this
morning in advance of a slow-moving cold front. Radar mosaic is
showing mainly very light rain across the area: however, an
approaching 120kt 300mb jet streak is enhancing the precip upstream
across central/southern Missouri. This larger area of light to
moderate rain will spread northeastward and impact areas along/east
of the I-55 corridor later this morning. As a result, have hit PoPs
hardest across the eastern half of the CWA, with only chance PoPs
further west across the Illinois River Valley. As cold front pushes
into the area, rain chances will gradually shift further eastward as
the day progresses. By afternoon, dry weather is anticipated
along/west of I-55, with showers continuing further east. Due to
the clouds and showers, high temperatures today will be a bit
cooler than yesterday, with readings remaining in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
A parade of fast-moving storm systems will impact the Midwest
through the extended, resulting in below normal temperatures and
periodic rain chances. After a warm/dry day on Wednesday, the first
northern stream short-wave will approach Wednesday night into
Thursday. Models have been consistent with the track and timing of
this feature for the past few runs, with surface low tracking from
North Dakota Wednesday morning to Lake Erie by Thursday evening.
Given this particular track, strongest lift will remain north of
central Illinois: however, clouds and showers will spill into the
area late Wednesday night and particularly during the day Thursday.
Winds will increase markedly as the low passes by to the north, with
forecast soundings suggesting N/NW winds gusting to around 30 mph on
Thursday. These gusty winds combined with temperatures hovering in
the 40s will produce wind-chills in the 20s at times. Wave departs
the region Thursday night, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some
lingering precip across the eastern CWA through the evening hours.
With surface temps dropping into the 30s and 850mb temps in the -2
to -4C range, may see a light rain/snow mix along/east of I-57
before precip pulls eastward into Indiana by midnight.
Another temporary lull in the precip chances will occur on Friday,
as high pressure brings cool/dry weather with high temperatures in
the 50s. The second in a series of short-waves will quickly
approach from the northwest Friday night into Saturday, spreading
clouds and showers back into the region. Temperatures will once
again struggle to get out of the 40s on Saturday, thanks to the
clouds and precip. Will need to keep an eye on the timing of the
departing wave, because if it lingers long enough, may see a light
rain/snow mix Saturday evening before precip ends. At this point,
will leave mention out of the forecast.
After that, yet another wave will track across the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front through Illinois on
Monday. With best upper support staying to the north and moisture
somewhat limited, models are keeping this system fairly dry across
the area. Will only mention slight chance PoPs across the north on
Monday, with continued below normal temps mainly in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain will continue to move across the region today. This pcpn will
effect all TAF sites except for PIA. The frontal zone and
associated pcpn will slowly move east this morning. So, have pcpn
ending at all sites, from west to east, by 18z. Once pcpn ends,
all that is left is for some mid clouds during the afternoon, and
then have high cirrus clouds after that. Cloud heights will lower
into the MVFR category as the pcpn continues this morning, but
sometime later this morning, once the pcpn ends and the front
moves east, cigs will rise back into the VFR range. Some obs west
of the TAF sites have IFR cigs. Believe if any IFR cigs arrive
early this morning, it will be brief and only worthy of a TEMPO
group; which I have added for all sites for about 4hrs during the
morning hours. Winds will become west-northwest once the front
passes, but then back a little to more west-southwest during the
late afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT FIRST...BUT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND
EXTRAPOLATION/NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA GRADUALLY THIS MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
A LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND DOWN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WITH COLD FRONT NOT FAR
BEHIND.
PRECIP SHOULD START ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE 08-09Z. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
TUE 12Z-WED 00Z WILL SUPPORT LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD AS FRONT TRAVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...A BLEND OF MODELS SEEMED LIKE BEST OPTION SINCE THE GFS
WAS A TAD TOO WARM...AND THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO COLD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND UP TO 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND THEN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA.
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AFTER WED
06Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THAT POINT...
A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD INTERACT WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER CHANCE POPS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH AND BE OVER OHIO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. SO...HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 914 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIND SO UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT
THIS. RAIN IS NEARBY BUT MOVEMENT OF RAIN INDICATES THAT IT MAY TAKE
LONGER FOR STEADIER RAIN TO ARRIVE AT KIND SO DELAYED START.
WHEN RAIN ARRIVES VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 6SM AT TIMES. ALSO MAY
HAVE TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS LOWER THAN BKN020 IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SAG
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY...RESULTING RAIN SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
TROPICS. GOOD FORCING ALSO IS AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CCLS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1.5-2K FT. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH THE LATEST HRRR HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AFT 00Z-03Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
914 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT FIRST...BUT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
A LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND DOWN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WITH COLD FRONT NOT FAR
BEHIND.
PRECIP SHOULD START ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE 08-09Z. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
TUE 12Z-WED 00Z WILL SUPPORT LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD AS FRONT TRAVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...A BLEND OF MODELS SEEMED LIKE BEST OPTION SINCE THE GFS
WAS A TAD TOO WARM...AND THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO COLD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND UP TO 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND THEN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA.
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AFTER WED
06Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THAT POINT...
A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD INTERACT WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER CHANCE POPS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH AND BE OVER OHIO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. SO...HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 914 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIND SO UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT
THIS. RAIN IS NEARBY BUT MOVEMENT OF RAIN INDICATES THAT IT MAY TAKE
LONGER FOR STEADIER RAIN TO ARRIVE AT KIND SO DELAYED START.
WHEN RAIN ARRIVES VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 6SM AT TIMES. ALSO MAY
HAVE TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS LOWER THAN BKN020 IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SAG
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY...RESULTING RAIN SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
TROPICS. GOOD FORCING ALSO IS AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CCLS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1.5-2K FT. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH THE LATEST HRRR HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AFT 00Z-03Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
548 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT FIRST...BUT AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW NORMAL...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
A LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND DOWN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WITH COLD FRONT NOT FAR
BEHIND.
PRECIP SHOULD START ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE 08-09Z. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
TUE 12Z-WED 00Z WILL SUPPORT LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD AS FRONT TRAVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...A BLEND OF MODELS SEEMED LIKE BEST OPTION SINCE THE GFS
WAS A TAD TOO WARM...AND THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO COLD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND UP TO 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND THEN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA.
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AFTER WED
06Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THAT POINT...
A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD INTERACT WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER CHANCE POPS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH AND BE OVER OHIO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. SO...HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS
PERIOD AS SEEN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS INDIANA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C! THUS HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME SATURATION LEFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND MOISTURE
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN
EVENING...PERHAPS ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOTABLE HERE IS VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SAG
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY...RESULTING RAIN SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
TROPICS. GOOD FORCING ALSO IS AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CCLS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1.5-2K FT. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH THE LATEST HRRR HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AFT 00Z-03Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
642 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED KIWD/KCMX AND WILL PASS KSAW IN THE
NEXT HR. THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT INCREASED MIXING UNDER COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP CIGS RISE INTO THE HIGHER MVFR RANGE DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. AT KSAW...INITIAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR SOON AFTER FROPA AND THEN HIGHER MVFR BY LATE
MORNING. WHILE KSAW WILL IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR THIS AFTN...
KCMX/KIWD PROBABLY WON`T SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY GENERATE
-SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN...SHRA
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO
IFR OR LIFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE SKY FOR TODAY. USED THE HRRR
CIGS AND RAP 925MB-850MB RH FIELDS FOR TIMING OF CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL LOOK INTO HOW THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE CLIPPER EVENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE UPPER CIRCULATION...SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA (MOST LIKELY RAIN...BUT
SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES). ALSO...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS AGREE THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. UPPER WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE INDUCING FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM/SREF BRING THE SFC
LOW THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GEM IN
BETWEEN. OF NOTE...THE REGIONAL GEM (HIGHER RESOLUTION VERSION) IS
NORTH OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION GEM. MESOSCALE BANDING INDICATORS
STILL SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED BANDING IS POSSIBLE. MOST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF QPF...WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGESTING 0.50 INCHES OR GREATER. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
PLACE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF QPF FROM NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE...INTO
THE GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI AREA. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS BRING THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF QPF FROM NORTHCENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
CONSIDERING THAT MESO-SCALE FORCING IS LIKELY...BEGINNING TO FAVOR
THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS...AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...USED MORE OF A BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY...AND ONLY HAVE POPS GREATER THAN 60% WHERE ALL MODELS
INDICATE QPF. OTHER THAN QPF AMOUNTS...P-TYPE AND POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE OTHER CHALLENGES FOR THIS EVENT. DUE TO THE
LOW PREDICTIVE NATURE OF THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...DETAILS LIKELY
CANNOT BE OBTAINED UNTIL WITHIN 6-12 HOURS OF THE EVENT...AND STUCK
WITH MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE EVENT. EACH SOLUTION DOES
SHOW 925MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES APPEAR LIKELY
SOMEWHERE. THE TRICKY PART IS HOW MUCH...AND WHERE TO PUT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST. TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY...WENT
WITH A GENERAL 1-2 INCH AREA FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEY AND BEMIDJI/PARK RAPIDS AREA...WHICH APPEARS
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE SNOWFALL (ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IN THE FORECAST). ALTHOUGH MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL (2-5 INCHES) IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD BE JUST A SMALL AREA
WITH LOCATIONS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE REGION
BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE A BIT BY DAY
7. OVERALL...TIMING LOOKS GOOD AND DECIDED ON A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR
THIS FORECAST.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...BUT PCPN TYPE DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK ATTM. WILL SEE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS
ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. SNOW
CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH MORE ABUNDANT COOLER AIR...BUT EXACT
PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
WILL LOOK AT LATER RUNS AND REFINE ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...MAY SEE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE MVFR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY...AND
VFR WITHIN THE VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR BY MID-
MORNING...WITH THE 3500-4500 FT CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION (MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
309 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WITH
DECREASING RAIN AND DECREASING COASTAL WIND. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT OF A DRY PERIOD CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING COMPACT AND RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND QUITE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER... THOUGH
A WEAK SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A
CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FAIRLY
HEAVY RAIN AND QUITE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. WINDS HAVE GUSTED WELL UP
INTO THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
RAINS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT BUT NO FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE FRONT HAVING JUST MOVED THROUGH BUOY 89...SUPPORTING THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF RAINFALL DECREASING MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AND THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WELL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE OREGON
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND. WITH A MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS
REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MILD AIR MASS AND SPARSE PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT RATHER STRONG COMPACT LOW EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON THURSDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL WINDS. THE MODELS
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS HOW STRONG OR DEEP
THE LOW WILL BE...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKER MODEL. IF THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS ARE MORE CORRECT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY. WITH A TRACK UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND...SOME RATHER
STRONG WIND COULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTERIOR AND
POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS WE
GET CLOSER. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...THE STRONG LOW FROM THURSDAY WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING
ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DRYING BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOR SOME MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM RIDING OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND GIVING US A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO TREND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR NOW.
TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN
INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE COAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE MVFR CIGS ARE NOW SPREADING INLAND FROM NW TO SE.
EXPECT ALL OF THE INTERIOR TAF SITES TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z TO
14Z. GUSTY S WINDS ARE PICKING UP ALONG THE COAST...AND EXPECT GUSTS
TO 30 TO 40 KT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM ABOUT 13Z FURTHER NORTH TO AROUND 16Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
BY 18Z TO 20Z. THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LOWERING THIS MORNING AS RAIN INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MVFR BY 11Z OR 12Z IN
STEADY RAIN...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY AROUND 18Z TUE. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE FRONT WENT THROUGH BUOY 89 OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH
A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE W AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS
OBSERVED. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PROGRESS INLAND ALONG THE S WA COAST
AFTER 12Z...EVENTUALLY PUSHING ONTO THE CENTRAL OR COAST BY AROUND
15Z. BASED ON THE OBSERVED TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE LATEST FCST
MODELS...EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING THROUGH MID MORNING. IN GENERAL
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LATE
MORNING...WITH NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS HAVE BUILT INTO THE MID TEENS THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASED
WIND WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL OFF LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10
FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY...
BRINGING FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
THU. A SURFACE LOW PRES IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FROM SW
TO NE...MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE N WA COAST OR VANCOUVER ISLAND.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID GALES AND WINDS INTO THE MID TEENS APPEAR TO
BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 PM
PST THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will into today with breezy winds developing
by this afternoon. The remainder of the work week will feature
mild temperatures with occasional periods of light rain with a
potential for windy conditions again on Thursday. A drying trend
is on tap for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A subtropical atmospheric river is hosing the
region this morning and efficiently enhancing along a strong
isentropic surface augmented by orographic lift in a southwest
flow regime. This pattern will characterize the first 6 to 8 hours
of the forecast featuring widespread...actually almost
universal...light to moderate rain with snow levels way up near
the top of the highest peaks. A further quarter to half inch of
rainfall is expected over far eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle today...while a few hundredths is likely in the normally
drier deep basin zones before an occluded front sweeps through and
transitions the precipitation pattern to a moist zonal regime. The
occlusion will move through the Cascades late this morning and
then sweep across the eastern basin and Idaho Panhandle this
afternoon. Precipitation will taper off to scattered showers in
the wake of the front...but winds will increase to solidly breezy
with gust potential of up to 30 to 35 mph on exposed terrain this
afternoon as mixing draws fast flow aloft down to the surface in a
random fashion. This well mixed air mass will also promote high
temperatures above average in the mid 50s over most valley
locations and even into the low 60s over the deep basin.
Tonight lingering showers over the mountains will gradually taper
off and winds will decrease as a broad ridge aloft begins to
build. The issue by Wednesday morning is likely to be extensive
fog and low clouds as the saturated low level air mass decouples
overnight.
In summary...a wet morning will give way to a blustery...unsettled and
raw afternoon followed by a quiet but very moist overnight period.
/Fugazzi
Wednesday through Thursday night:
* Overview: A ridge of high pressure will build over the region
Wednesday then migrate east Thursday. Wednesday will generally
feature dry conditions but not necessarily sunny skies as
morning low clouds and fog give way to increasing clouds along
a midlevel warm front. The warm front will be tied to a deep low
pressure system in the offshore waters tracking north between
140-150W longitude. One noticeable difference will be with winds
as they switch around from the west to the south. This will
increase lift into the northern mountains with periods of light
rain developing by early Wednesday evening and continue into the
night. Model consensus places the highest rain probabilities
north of a line from Sandpoint to Wenatchee with lower chances
as far south as the I-90 corridor during the Wednesday night
time-frame. The Camas Prairie, Blue Mtns, and L-C Valley will
carry the least threat for precipitation through Wednesday
night.
An area of low pressure will track through the region
Thursday. Look for morning rain across the north to intensify as
southerly winds ramp up and transport deep subtropical moisture
inland. Model pwats surge well over an inch indicative of the
atmospheric river returning to region. Rain will expand south
and east as the low crosses through northwestern WA ushering a
cold front across the Cascades then into Ern WA and Nrn ID late
Thursday aftn/evening. Models are still showing moderate
differences with the strength of this low but overall trends
over the last 2-3 runs with each model suite is
wetter...slower...and further south. This looks to be quick
moving storm system which will limit the potential for heavy
rains despite the very juicy air mass accompanying the system.
Once the cold front passes through, look for clearing in the
lee of the Cascades while showers begin to concentrate along
the Cascade Crest and eastern mountains.
* QPF: Wednesday/Wednesday night: QPF amounts will largely be
under 0.20" of an inch except along the Cascade Crest which
will have the potential for 0.25-0.50". Thursday/Thursday night:
Rainfall amounts for Thursday and Thursday night will range from
0.40 - 0.80" in the mountains of NE WA and Nrn ID, 0.70 - 1.30"
along the Cascade Crest and between 0.10 - 0.30" in the Basin.
With the exception of the southeastern corner of the forecast
area (L-C Valley, Camas Prairie, and Blue Mtns) these amounts
may be on the conservative side with newer 00z guidance
producing swaths closer to an inch into the lowlands of the
Upper Columbia Basin.
* Winds: Winds Thursday morning/early afternoon will be from
south/southeast 6-12 mph. These winds will switch to the
west/southwest behind the cold front passage Thursday
afternoon/evening (timing still carries uncertainty) and
increase 10 to 20 mph with the potential for gusts 35-45 mph.
* Snow levels: The northern mountains will start off between
4500-5000 feet Wed morning but climb 6000-7000 feet by early
evening and will continue to surge toward 10,000 feet overnight
(another tell tale sign of the atmospheric river). Snow levels
will fall after the cold front passage Thursday night with
moderate uncertainty how quick and how low. Needless to say,
there is a potential that snow levels to fall 4500-5000 feet in
the Cascades Thursday night which could deliver snow showers to
Stevens Pass. Most precipitation will be ending at Sherman Pass
and the cooler air will not arrive at Lookout Pass until Friday
morning...after sunrise. So in summary, the mountain pass which
could see some snow would be Stevens and not until late Thursday
night with low confidence in regards to amounts and travel
impacts.
Friday: A ridge of high pressure will amplify off the coast and
begin to expand inland. The Inland NW will be on the eastern
periphery of the ridge through much of the day placing a
northwesterly jet overhead. Mountain showers will be in place to
start the day. The air mass will stabilize from west to east
through the day as the ridge axis starts to come onshore. This
will shut off orographic showers in the Cascades around midday Fri
then by late afternoon/early evening in the Idaho Panhandle. There
will be a good chance for fog and low clouds to redevelop Friday
night into Saturday morning.
Temperatures from Wednesday through Friday night will be quite
mild for November`s standards with overnight lows near
climatological highs. /sb
Saturday through Monday Night: Models continue to indicate a high
amplitude ridge building into the region late in the week leading
to a general drying trend into the weekend. This would also bring
a lesser amount of cloud cover for the end of the week. Where we
start to lose consistency in the models is late Sunday with the
approach of a significant shortwave. The GFS continues to show the
majority of the energy sliding to the north and east of the region
leading to mainly dry forecast. The euro on the other hand brings
the wave much further west directly over eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle. This would lead to a wetter and windier pattern for the
forecast area. While the euro solution has been inconsistent with
its timing, the pattern has been rather similar from run to run.
Based on the inconsistencies, I am reluctant to completely buy
into one or the other at this point. Exact details will have to
wait with the extended as models paint two different pictures.
The good news is we still have plenty of time to iron out the
uncertainties. Concerning temperatures we look to stay on the warm
side of normal as mild Pacific air continues to stream into the
Inland NW. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Steady rain should reappear for most lowland locations
near 10Z and linger for much of the day. Wind is expected to
increase and become gusty as this wet frontal zone passes through,
with potential for low level wind shear if these robust upper
level winds do not mix down to the surface tonight. The back edge
of the wet frontal zone passes through same locations near 21Z
and allow for decreased precipitation activity. Between 0-6Z
Wednesday the front is making progress out of North Idaho so
precipitation should be over for aviation sites along with a
decrease in wind. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 41 52 46 57 42 / 100 10 20 30 60 30
Coeur d`Alene 52 40 51 44 56 41 / 100 20 20 20 60 40
Pullman 52 44 57 48 61 43 / 100 20 10 10 30 40
Lewiston 58 47 62 47 66 46 / 100 10 10 10 20 50
Colville 54 38 49 43 54 41 / 100 10 30 60 80 30
Sandpoint 50 40 49 42 53 40 / 100 30 20 20 80 60
Kellogg 46 41 50 43 53 41 / 100 60 20 10 60 60
Moses Lake 63 44 57 46 61 43 / 90 10 10 20 60 10
Wenatchee 63 44 54 45 52 42 / 90 10 10 50 70 10
Omak 59 39 50 42 50 39 / 90 10 30 70 90 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will spread across the region tonight into
Tuesday with breezy winds developing Tuesday afternoon. This will
be the wettest storm system of the week. The remainder of the week
will feature mild temperatures with occasional periods of light
precipitation. A stronger storm system will bring the potential
for windy conditions late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Grids were updated some in an attempt to time the brief break in
the steady rain tonight occurring over much of the lowland
locations right now. Opted to keep the text based zones as is
with the high pop mention of steady rain based on this expectation
that rain will again appear for most lowland locations by 2AM PST
based on recent HRRR model runs. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Steady rain should reappear for most lowland locations
near 10Z and linger for much of the day. Wind is expected to
increase and become gusty as this wet frontal zone passes through,
with potential for low level wind shear if these robust upper
level winds do not mix down to the surface tonight. The back edge
of the wet frontal zone passes through same locations near 21Z
and allow for decreased precipitation activity. Between 0-6Z
Wednesday the front is making progress out of North Idaho so
precipitation should be over for aviation sites along with a
decrease in wind. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 45 54 43 53 46 57 / 100 100 10 20 30 50
Coeur d`Alene 43 51 41 53 44 56 / 100 100 20 20 30 60
Pullman 44 54 45 57 48 61 / 100 100 30 10 20 30
Lewiston 47 59 48 62 47 66 / 60 100 20 20 20 20
Colville 44 54 39 50 43 54 / 100 100 10 30 50 60
Sandpoint 43 49 41 50 42 53 / 100 100 30 20 40 70
Kellogg 41 45 42 50 43 53 / 100 100 60 20 20 70
Moses Lake 48 63 45 57 45 61 / 80 30 10 20 30 30
Wenatchee 46 61 43 56 46 59 / 90 30 10 20 40 40
Omak 43 58 39 52 42 56 / 100 30 10 30 50 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 AM WED MORN.
MOORE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY. MIN TEMPS LAST NIGHT HELPED TO CLEAR A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
IN THE SE CORNER...BUT CLOUD COVER KEPT THE REST FROM ACHIEVING A
HARD FREEZE SO WILL TRY AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MOORE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ085>089-093>097.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY. MIN TEMPS LAST NIGHT HELPED TO CLEAR A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
IN THE SE CORNER...BUT CLOUD COVER KEPT THE REST FROM ACHIEVING A
HARD FREEZE SO WILL TRY AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MOORE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE ERN MTNS HAS BEEN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE RAP SHOW THE MSTR/CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVR PUEBLO...FREMONT
AND EL PASO COUNTIES. FEWER CLOUDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. WL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IS.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND PUEBLO TO THE EASTERN CO
BORDER. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT UNTIL AFTER WE SEE
WHAT LOCATIONS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BUMP UP
HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AT THE PEAKS. HAVE
STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AS MAV LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO
WARM DESPITE THE EXPECTED MIXING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING HIGHS ON THURSDAY AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
MOST NOTABLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WARMING ALOFT
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S AND 40S AT THE PEAKS. UVV WITH PASSING WAVE
TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS
AND THE PEAKS PEAK REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND GREAT BASIN...KEEPING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SLOWLY WARMS TO AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1204 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CST
THE PARADE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PUT THE AREA ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS INTO NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD LATE THIS WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT TRANQUIL
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW STRETCHING FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO
HUDSON BAY. A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH
THE NORTHERN PORTION PIVOTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA HELPING TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO ITS SOUTH WITH THE TWO
CONSOLIDATING TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING WHILE THE TWO SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLEAR TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY OR SO.
A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BACK INTO MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRAIL THE MORE SOLID BAND AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL BE DONE IN MOST
AREAS BY MIDDAY WITH FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS SEEING SOME LINGERING RAIN
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH H85 TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND +2C BY LATE DAY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR THE DAY WITH INCOMING COOL ADVECTION TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AREAS LOSE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY HELP OFFSET THIS. VERY WEAK RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AND DIMINISHING BUT PROBABLY NOT GOING CALM FOR MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS
BEFORE THINGS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUPPLYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS WARMING TO +5-6C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 BY THE OVERNIGHT. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE DEFORMATION/WRAPAROUND PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. WILL STICK WITH THE
IDEA THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME A CHALLENGE.
EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
FOR A TIME BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION THOUGH
SOME SLUSH COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS IF THINGS GO TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY BUT BE SHUNTED EASTWARD BY ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEELS. THESE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODEST MODERATION OF TEMPS INTO THE
40S WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST AND ENERGY OVERTOPS IT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE WARM
ADVECTION TO FOR MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH SOME MIX COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL COME ANOTHER PUSH
OF COLD AIR SATURDAY NIGHT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10. BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY LEADING TO A
DRY DAY BUT HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BREAK IT DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO A BRIEFLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHARP COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREES WITH TIMING. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THAT
GREAT HOWEVER OTHER THAN SHOWING ANOTHER BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR. HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD PUSH BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT
HAPPENS IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LEADING UP
TO THAT AS WELL AS IF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARND 2KFT AGL IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS BY 19Z.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25KT THRU THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...DIMINISHING
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ARND 10KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH WINDS THEN SLOWLY TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY ARND DAYBREAK WED. THE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO ARND 8-10KT. IN ADDITION PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT WITH A CONTINUED CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD THIS
AFTN/TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...SHRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SHSN AND IFR POSSIBLE LATE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN FRI NGT. WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS CRUISING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
REACH THE LAKE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE ONTO HUDSON BAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS ANOTHER LOW RAPIDLY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT WILL SLOW AND
DEEPEN BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLIES
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST LATER THURSDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL YET
AGAIN QUICKLY BUILD WINDS AND WAVES...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF GALES IS STILL ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
BACK IN.
EXPECT A PARADE OF LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPEATING A PATTERN OF INCREASED SOUTHERLIES FOLLOWED BY COLD
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME REGULARITY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Cold front is located roughly along the I-55 corridor at 9 am,
with the back edge of the rain shield located along it. Rain
covers about the southeast half of the CWA except the extreme
southeast tip near Lawrenceville, where dry air has limited the
progression thus far, but rain should be more steady down there
soon. Low level jet has been spreading the rain northeast from
southern Missouri. The jet trajectory will shift south of the
forecast area early this afternoon, with some breaks in the rain
developing as the afternoon progresses. Latest RAP model guidance
shows a slow eastward progression of the front to near the Indiana
border by sunset. Large area of clearing off to the northwest in
Iowa, but guidance showing the large cirrus shield keeping our
skies mainly cloudy, except closer to sunset northwest of the
Illinois River.
Updated zones/grids were sent earlier to reflect the latest rain
trends, and to make some minor adjustments to the temperature
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain has spread across the western half of the KILX CWA early this
morning in advance of a slow-moving cold front. Radar mosaic is
showing mainly very light rain across the area: however, an
approaching 120kt 300mb jet streak is enhancing the precip upstream
across central/southern Missouri. This larger area of light to
moderate rain will spread northeastward and impact areas along/east
of the I-55 corridor later this morning. As a result, have hit PoPs
hardest across the eastern half of the CWA, with only chance PoPs
further west across the Illinois River Valley. As cold front pushes
into the area, rain chances will gradually shift further eastward as
the day progresses. By afternoon, dry weather is anticipated
along/west of I-55, with showers continuing further east. Due to
the clouds and showers, high temperatures today will be a bit
cooler than yesterday, with readings remaining in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
A parade of fast-moving storm systems will impact the Midwest
through the extended, resulting in below normal temperatures and
periodic rain chances. After a warm/dry day on Wednesday, the first
northern stream short-wave will approach Wednesday night into
Thursday. Models have been consistent with the track and timing of
this feature for the past few runs, with surface low tracking from
North Dakota Wednesday morning to Lake Erie by Thursday evening.
Given this particular track, strongest lift will remain north of
central Illinois: however, clouds and showers will spill into the
area late Wednesday night and particularly during the day Thursday.
Winds will increase markedly as the low passes by to the north, with
forecast soundings suggesting N/NW winds gusting to around 30 mph on
Thursday. These gusty winds combined with temperatures hovering in
the 40s will produce wind-chills in the 20s at times. Wave departs
the region Thursday night, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some
lingering precip across the eastern CWA through the evening hours.
With surface temps dropping into the 30s and 850mb temps in the -2
to -4C range, may see a light rain/snow mix along/east of I-57
before precip pulls eastward into Indiana by midnight.
Another temporary lull in the precip chances will occur on Friday,
as high pressure brings cool/dry weather with high temperatures in
the 50s. The second in a series of short-waves will quickly
approach from the northwest Friday night into Saturday, spreading
clouds and showers back into the region. Temperatures will once
again struggle to get out of the 40s on Saturday, thanks to the
clouds and precip. Will need to keep an eye on the timing of the
departing wave, because if it lingers long enough, may see a light
rain/snow mix Saturday evening before precip ends. At this point,
will leave mention out of the forecast.
After that, yet another wave will track across the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front through Illinois on
Monday. With best upper support staying to the north and moisture
somewhat limited, models are keeping this system fairly dry across
the area. Will only mention slight chance PoPs across the north on
Monday, with continued below normal temps mainly in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Cold front is about to pass through KCMI with winds shifting to
the west-northwest. Steady rain and IFR conditions have been found
immediately ahead of this front, but with passage of the front,
conditions will quickly improve. The winds will already trend
toward the southwest again this evening and more southerly on
Wednesday morning. Some concern for a bit of visibility
restriction later tonight with the recent rain and winds becoming
lighter. Right now, will go with a TEMPO 5SM group for KDEC/KCMI
only, as the TAF sites further west will have a slightly tighter
pressure gradient to help keep the winds up a bit more.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1024 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CST
THE PARADE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PUT THE AREA ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPS INTO NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD LATE THIS WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT TRANQUIL
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW STRETCHING FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO
HUDSON BAY. A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH
THE NORTHERN PORTION PIVOTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA HELPING TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO ITS SOUTH WITH THE TWO
CONSOLIDATING TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING WHILE THE TWO SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLEAR TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY OR SO.
A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BACK INTO MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRAIL THE MORE SOLID BAND AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL BE DONE IN MOST
AREAS BY MIDDAY WITH FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS SEEING SOME LINGERING RAIN
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH H85 TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND +2C BY LATE DAY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR THE DAY WITH INCOMING COOL ADVECTION TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AREAS LOSE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY HELP OFFSET THIS. VERY WEAK RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AND DIMINISHING BUT PROBABLY NOT GOING CALM FOR MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS
BEFORE THINGS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUPPLYING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS WARMING TO +5-6C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 BY THE OVERNIGHT. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE DEFORMATION/WRAPAROUND PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. WILL STICK WITH THE
IDEA THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME A CHALLENGE.
EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
FOR A TIME BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION THOUGH
SOME SLUSH COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS IF THINGS GO TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY BUT BE SHUNTED EASTWARD BY ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEELS. THESE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODEST MODERATION OF TEMPS INTO THE
40S WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST AND ENERGY OVERTOPS IT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE WARM
ADVECTION TO FOR MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH SOME MIX COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL COME ANOTHER PUSH
OF COLD AIR SATURDAY NIGHT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10. BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY LEADING TO A
DRY DAY BUT HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BREAK IT DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO A BRIEFLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHARP COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREES WITH TIMING. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THAT
GREAT HOWEVER OTHER THAN SHOWING ANOTHER BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR. HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD PUSH BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT
HAPPENS IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LEADING UP
TO THAT AS WELL AS IF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 24KT.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BEFORE 17Z.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
COLD FRONT IS ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS WITH THE MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. CLOSER TO THE FRONT IS MORE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS A NARROW LINE
AND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. CIGS ARE GENERALLY LOWERING TO
LOWER END MVFR. IFR TO THE WEST HAS NOT GENERALLY BEEN HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR VERY LONG. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ALL THAT
WOULD OCCUR AT THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
FEELING IT IT STAYS CONFINED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHERE DEWPOINT
POOLING ALLOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSSION TO DIP A BIT MORE.
SOME MIXING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WEST WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT BACK TO VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL...THOUGH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INITIALLY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING.
FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WINDS STAY UP ENOUGH FOR NO
FOG...BUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...SHRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SHSN AND IFR POSSIBLE LATE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN FRI NGT. WEST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE IS CRUISING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
REACH THE LAKE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE ONTO HUDSON BAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS ANOTHER LOW RAPIDLY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT WILL SLOW AND
DEEPEN BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLIES
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST LATER THURSDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL YET
AGAIN QUICKLY BUILD WINDS AND WAVES...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF GALES IS STILL ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
BACK IN.
EXPECT A PARADE OF LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPEATING A PATTERN OF INCREASED SOUTHERLIES FOLLOWED BY COLD
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME REGULARITY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
946 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Cold front is located roughly along the I-55 corridor at 9 am,
with the back edge of the rain shield located along it. Rain
covers about the southeast half of the CWA except the extreme
southeast tip near Lawrenceville, where dry air has limited the
progression thus far, but rain should be more steady down there
soon. Low level jet has been spreading the rain northeast from
southern Missouri. The jet trajectory will shift south of the
forecast area early this afternoon, with some breaks in the rain
developing as the afternoon progresses. Latest RAP model guidance
shows a slow eastward progression of the front to near the Indiana
border by sunset. Large area of clearing off to the northwest in
Iowa, but guidance showing the large cirrus shield keeping our
skies mainly cloudy, except closer to sunset northwest of the
Illinois River.
Updated zones/grids were sent earlier to reflect the latest rain
trends, and to make some minor adjustments to the temperature
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain has spread across the western half of the KILX CWA early this
morning in advance of a slow-moving cold front. Radar mosaic is
showing mainly very light rain across the area: however, an
approaching 120kt 300mb jet streak is enhancing the precip upstream
across central/southern Missouri. This larger area of light to
moderate rain will spread northeastward and impact areas along/east
of the I-55 corridor later this morning. As a result, have hit PoPs
hardest across the eastern half of the CWA, with only chance PoPs
further west across the Illinois River Valley. As cold front pushes
into the area, rain chances will gradually shift further eastward as
the day progresses. By afternoon, dry weather is anticipated
along/west of I-55, with showers continuing further east. Due to
the clouds and showers, high temperatures today will be a bit
cooler than yesterday, with readings remaining in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
A parade of fast-moving storm systems will impact the Midwest
through the extended, resulting in below normal temperatures and
periodic rain chances. After a warm/dry day on Wednesday, the first
northern stream short-wave will approach Wednesday night into
Thursday. Models have been consistent with the track and timing of
this feature for the past few runs, with surface low tracking from
North Dakota Wednesday morning to Lake Erie by Thursday evening.
Given this particular track, strongest lift will remain north of
central Illinois: however, clouds and showers will spill into the
area late Wednesday night and particularly during the day Thursday.
Winds will increase markedly as the low passes by to the north, with
forecast soundings suggesting N/NW winds gusting to around 30 mph on
Thursday. These gusty winds combined with temperatures hovering in
the 40s will produce wind-chills in the 20s at times. Wave departs
the region Thursday night, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some
lingering precip across the eastern CWA through the evening hours.
With surface temps dropping into the 30s and 850mb temps in the -2
to -4C range, may see a light rain/snow mix along/east of I-57
before precip pulls eastward into Indiana by midnight.
Another temporary lull in the precip chances will occur on Friday,
as high pressure brings cool/dry weather with high temperatures in
the 50s. The second in a series of short-waves will quickly
approach from the northwest Friday night into Saturday, spreading
clouds and showers back into the region. Temperatures will once
again struggle to get out of the 40s on Saturday, thanks to the
clouds and precip. Will need to keep an eye on the timing of the
departing wave, because if it lingers long enough, may see a light
rain/snow mix Saturday evening before precip ends. At this point,
will leave mention out of the forecast.
After that, yet another wave will track across the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front through Illinois on
Monday. With best upper support staying to the north and moisture
somewhat limited, models are keeping this system fairly dry across
the area. Will only mention slight chance PoPs across the north on
Monday, with continued below normal temps mainly in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
Rain will continue to move across the region today. This pcpn will
effect all TAF sites except for PIA. The frontal zone and
associated pcpn will slowly move east this morning. So, have pcpn
ending at all sites, from west to east, by 18z. Once pcpn ends,
all that is left is for some mid clouds during the afternoon, and
then have high cirrus clouds after that. Cloud heights will lower
into the MVFR category as the pcpn continues this morning, but
sometime later this morning, once the pcpn ends and the front
moves east, cigs will rise back into the VFR range. Some obs west
of the TAF sites have IFR cigs. Believe if any IFR cigs arrive
early this morning, it will be brief and only worthy of a TEMPO
group; which I have added for all sites for about 4hrs during the
morning hours. Winds will become west-northwest once the front
passes, but then back a little to more west-southwest during the
late afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING AS MUCH COLDER
AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR NW GALES OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALE LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WHICH WILL IMPACT UPPER MI WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE
OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SECOND AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR ACCMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE WED
INTO THU.
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DEEPENING OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO REACH UP TO THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER
12Z NAM SNDGS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NW AND FAR NE UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE-DELTA T 11-12C. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVER THESE AREAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FROM
GRAND MARAIS EAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THU WILL BE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING
OFF NW PAC COAST WHICH WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z RUN AND NOW HAS PCPN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS MODELS
INDICATE STRONG UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130 KT 250-300 MB JET
MAX DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE...STRENGTHENING THE SFC LOW AND
RESULTING IN STRONG 850-800 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH MODELS HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF PCPN UNTIL MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) CONFINED TO MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW AND NE THROUGH 00Z THU. WET BULB ZERO
HGTS DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING HRS SO EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH MAYBE A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CLOSER TO 00Z. AS A
RESULT HAVE MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...THROUGH 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP SETS UP...BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF 0.1-0.35IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT
WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1 RANGE...SHOULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. THIS COULD
BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS...BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE 18Z NAM RUN BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND JUST MENTION IN THE HWO. IF THE SOUTH TREND
CONTINUES...THE NORTHERN POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE...AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES (A CLIPPER TRAIN) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH HAS THE 1005MB
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM
AIR ALOFT WRAPPING NORTH AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW...SHOULD SEE
A NICE SWATH OF PRECIP (ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 850-650MB FGEN)
SLIDING EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LARGELY TIED TO WHERE THAT FGEN/WAA AREA
SETS UP...SO IT LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE
LAKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GEM (BOTH
NH/REGIONAL)...ECMWF...AND NCEP-WRF ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD TREND
FROM THE 00Z RUNS. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...DID
CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS WITH DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. IT APPEARS THE KEWEENAW WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT HEAVIER PRECIP
SETS UP...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SWATH OF ????-????IN OVER
THE SOUTERN PART OF THE U.P. THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THE FORECAST
COMES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND SNOW. WITH SNOW FALLING
ALOFT...THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR THAT WRAPS NORTH INTO THE AREA. BASED OFF THE 12Z
RUNS...THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO MENOMINEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS
WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WETBULB0 HEIGHTS
FOR LOCATIONS RIGHT NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
SNOW TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THE 10-1
RANGE...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO
THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL...850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE. THIS COULD BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS UP AN INCH
OR TWO...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE SOUTH
SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WOULD EXPECT TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE. THUS...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL ISSUES AND CONTINUE THE MENTION
IN THE HWO. IT APPEARS THERE MAY NEED TO BE AN ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE COMING SHIFTS.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE
CLOUDS DEPART ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW AIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE TRENDED
LOWS DOWN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH
PRODUCES LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE 1001MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION (AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW) TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). AS THE LOW EXITS...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT.
LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HIGH END CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF FROM MANITOBA INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXTENDING SW TO AZ. WITHIN THE TROF...
THERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NE
THRU WI AND THE SECOND IS DROPPING SE INTO ND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS AIDING A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
AREA COVERS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF UPPER MI NEAR AXIS OF BEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SECOND SMALLER AREA OVER WRN UPPER MI
IS TIED MORE DIRECTLY TO THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO AROUND IRON RIVER.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE MORNING. WITH DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT AND EXIT OF SHORTWAVE TO
THE NE...PCPN WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
WEAKLY CYCLONIC...BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -4C MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE W THRU THE
MORNING HRS. THIS AFTN...SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO ND
WILL SWING E INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL
PCPN DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI. LOWERING WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN TODAY OVER THE W WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UNDER INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW
WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -6C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...
BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A PLUS. SO...THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHSN/-SHSNRA IN W TO WNW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES W TO E WITH
GRADUAL LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
DECREASING WINDS WILL BE THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI
RESIDES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXITING INTO N QUEBEC...AND THE SECOND WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THE 06Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM
THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE NAM POSITIONING THE SFC LOW OVER GREEN BAY AND THE
ECMWF/GFS NEAR CHICAGO. IF THIS N SOLUTION PANS OUT...MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI INLAND FROM LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH
THIS...A MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL KEPT THE MENTION OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HWO OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT BRIEF WAA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA
AND TX 00Z SATURDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -8C TO AROUND -4C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY...WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI. OTHER THAN A MIX...OR MAINLY RAIN NEAR
LAKE MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS THE SFC TROUGH EXITS
E UPPER MI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST AS MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON NW WINDS
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -10 TO -16C.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 04/00Z CANADIAN QUICKLY BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING TO W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW IMPROVEMENT HAS
OCCURRED AT KSAW AND KIWD WHERE MIXING UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
HELPED RAISE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KCMX/KIWD
PROBABLY WON`T SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN MAY
GENERATE -SHRASN AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WED
MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL USHER
IN W WINDS OF 20-30KT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FREQUENCY OF GALE GUSTS TO SUPPORT A GALE
WARNING ISSUANCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT
WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20KT WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20-30KT ON SAT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW
A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWRN
CANADA...WHICH WAS SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TNGT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT TNGT THERE WILL ONLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NWRN SD INTO THE BLKHLS AND EXTREME NERN WY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WINDS OF 35-45 KT...RESULTING IN WIND ADVY CRITERIA
ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN SD PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECENT LACK OF
PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DUST
POLLUTION ALERT FOR WEST RAPID CITY. THE MAIN SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES WILL BE ACROSS ND...AND THE TIMING OF THE MAXIMUM BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND
WRNG CRITERIA WINDS TO BE ACHIEVED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SUNDAY
LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE NICE WITH
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA WITH SUBSEQUENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN...BUT
THEN WARMUP APPEARS AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/12Z ECMWF
RUNS INSIST ON MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK AND SOME GROUND-WHITENING SNOW
FOR MONDAY. 12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR OR
SNOW...SHUNTING CORE OF COLD AIR EAST OF CWA WITH UPPER TROUGH MUCH
FURTHER EAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COLDER THAN OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT
WARMER THAN ECMWF. THICKNESS DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY FOR CONTRASTING
RUNS ABOUT 250M. HAVE FOLLOWED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW UP IN LATER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST SD BETWEEN 06Z-15Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ TO 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ043-046-047-049.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ013-014-025-
026-031-032-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PULL QUITE A BIT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE OVER THE REGION WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE VERY
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. HARDEST PART WAS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WERE
CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER OUT WAY TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF
BOTH KEEP A THICK LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING/EVOLVING...OPTED TO GO WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE WE HAD A FREEZE WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME READINGS AT
33 DEGREES AROUND FRIONA AND MULESHOE SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT
FEEL THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED FOR NOW.
WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT BACKWARDS
FROM OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH AS INSOLATION IS USED TO EVAPORATE
ANY SURFACE MOISTURE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SO NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A LIGHT WIND ALL DAY AND
LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM MORE
THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS PROVIDING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WILL SHEAR OUT
WHILST SKIRTING SSE TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEREFORE START OFF DRY AS AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PROMOTES DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE DRY
COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW
NIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR/AT THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 1029 MB SFC RIDGE WITH HINTS OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LEADING TO A PROJECTED STRONGER
AND BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/...IN COMPARISON TO TOMORROW
NIGHT/S FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL BRING ABOUT
THE RETURN OF BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...HENCE REBOUNDING
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS COLD FRONT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...WITH CURRENT
ITERATIONS SHOWING EITHER A STOUT SFC RIDGE DRIVING IN A BREEZY
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE ECMWF/ OR A WEAKER
FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS /PER THE GFS/. A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS APPEARS APPROPRIATE ATTM...THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND BELOW NORM TEMPS ARE VALID.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 36 63 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 37 61 37 64 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 38 59 36 64 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 39 60 38 65 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 40 59 36 64 40 / 30 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 40 59 37 64 40 / 20 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 42 65 43 68 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 41 62 41 67 42 / 20 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 42 61 40 68 43 / 50 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/29
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE MOSTLY LEVELED
OFF FURTHER WEST. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO THE WAUSAU TO
GREEN BAY AREAS BUT CLOUDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE 29 ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO ENTER NW
WISCONSIN. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AT DULUTH
WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE VILAS COUNTY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. CLOUD
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP TRENDS
ON WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. WITH ONLY
SPOTTY RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARGUE FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE FURTHER NORTH DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE LOW
OVERCAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TRYING TO TIME THE CLEARING
IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATE...SO THINK
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
LATE AND A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH
AND WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S
SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
QUICKLY AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
DAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN ZONE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SINCE EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE. TEMPS ARE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLAKES RIGHT NEAR THE U.P. BORDER
SO LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE TWO TO SEVEN DAY PERIOD OCCURS
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES
IN...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WI. GFS/SREF/ECMWF MODELS
WHIP THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI IN ABOUT
6-8 HOURS WHILE THE NAM DAWDLES 2-4 HOURS LONGER. OTHER THAN
TIMING...THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY...SREF PLUMES
INDICATE ABOUT 0.2" LIQUID ACCUMULATION AT GRB WITH ABOUT 1/2"
SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD ON THURS. WPC 1640Z 2-DAY
WINTER PRECIP HIGHLIGHTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL WI.
ANOTHER CLIPPER STYLE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER LIGHT SHOT OF MIXED PRECIP. FINALLY...A THIRD CLIPPER
APPROACHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ROBUST...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
ON ANY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF GENERATES AN IMPRESSIVE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY LATE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IMPROVE CIGS TO LOW VFR. THIS
CLEARING WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MVL
AVIATION.......MPC