Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/03/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC PROVIDING A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WAS JUST PROPAGATING INTO CNTRL ARIZONA
THIS EVENING WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LONGWAVE FEATURE IN NRN SONORA...ERN UTAH...AND
NERN MONTANA. WHILE THE ENTIRE TROUGH IS IN A WEAKENING PHASE AND
HEIGHT FALLS NO LONGER SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AND DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. NIGHTTIME SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH WV IMAGERY
SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITH THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ENVELOPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALREADY THIS EVENING...HOURLY DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...FEEL TEMPERATURE FALLS WILL
ACCELERATE EVEN FURTHER AND HAVE SELECTIVELY SHAVED A FEW DEGREES
OFF OVERNIGHT LOWS. SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DEWPOINTS WHILE
CLOUD COVER WAS TRIMMED DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/153 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014/
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE 1ST FALL/WINTER SEASON UPPER TROF OF THE SEASON...THAT HAS
BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR CWA
TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT HAD BEEN
SEEN EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON
CWA`S...PRODUCING FLAGSTAFF`S 1ST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...AND EVEN
SOME TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SE AZ AT THIS HOUR.
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL SHOWS THIS CLEARING TREND CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ANY REMAINING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT STILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX ENDING
AT/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH MANY
OF THE OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING THEIR 1ST MID TO UPPER
40`S OF THE SEASON FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH THE PHX URBAN CORE
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROF IS
NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AZ DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO KEEP HEIGHTS/TEMPS DOWN A
BIT LONGER...WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE SAME...OR
EVEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT ON MONDAY...AS EVEN DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH HELPS TO AID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB TEMPS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD TO KEEP MOST LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW YO MID 70S ON MONDAY...AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND EURO MODEL SUITES CONTINUE THE SOLN OF SLOWLY
SHIFTING THE MAIN LONG-WAVE RIDGING BACK EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS RECOVERING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ALLOWING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF ARIZONA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST. AFTN HIGHS IN THE
70S CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY THEN
RECOVERING SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...WATERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON SATURDAY...FALLING
FURTHER TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...AND AMOUNTS
VERY LIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS CA PUSHING EASTWARD. DEEP LAYER THICKNESS FALLS WILL
LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS ONLY
APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NV
WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF STRATOCU WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RUNNING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE SURFACE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
IN TWO PHASES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY. DYNAMICS WILL BE A BIT LIMITED AS THE MAIN UPPER JET
WILL STAY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND ONLY MODEST Q CONVERGENCE AND
UVV WILL OVERSPREAD THE DESERTS. MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO
THE NORTH OF PHOENIX...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WITH THE COOLER DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE STRONGEST WIND WITH THE TROF PASSAGE WILL OCCUR
TODAY...WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN DESERTS INCLUDING FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF JOSHUA
TREE NP...AND PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY SUCH AS EL CENTRO AND
IMPERIAL. FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
THE SECOND PHASE OF THE TROF PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN COLD CORE OF THE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AZ AND THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. A VERY IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS MOST OF
ARIZONA SUNDAY...AND THE UPPER JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUADRANT FOR
ENHANCED LIFT. BRISK LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AS SUCH...WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DESPITE STRONG
DYNAMICS SUNDAY...MOISTURE REMAINS A BIT LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES
MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 0.75 INCHES AND AS SUCH WE DO NOT EXPECT THE
PRECIP THAT FALLS TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DESERTS SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WITH THE COOLER DESERTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 73 DEGREES.
DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY PERSISTS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. ALSO...IN THE RECENT PAST GFS HAS OUTPERFORMED THE
ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO BOTH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS
AND SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS SATURDAY SOMETIME MID TO LATE
MORNING...LIKELY IN THE 4K-6K LEVEL. THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND
EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF BROKEN CIGS.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISPERSE AND RISE SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY... AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KIPL. EXPECTING WINDS TO
SLACKEN SOME AT KIPL AFTER SUNRISE...BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY. WITH
FULL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...STRONGER WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND
SUNSET.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
BUT WARMING IN THE WEEK. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAY AND NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. LIGHTER WIND
WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BREEZES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW WITH PLENTY STILL OUT OVER
THE WATERS HEADING TOWARD OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT HAS NOT PICKED UP ANY STRIKES, THE PATTERN IS
DEFINITELY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP TODAY.
ECHOS HAVE GENERALLY BENN UNDER 50 DBZ, ALTHOUGH SEEING A FEW
RETURNS OVER 55. PROBABLY GETTING SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THEM.
KOAK SOUNDING AND PROFILERS ALSO PEG THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
5,700 FEET SUGGESTING THAT LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 5,000 FEET ARE
PROBABLY GETTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ANYWAY, CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROF AND LATEST HRRR INFORMATION, WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE
POPS A BIT FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE REGION.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FORECAST MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 200-600 J/KG. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BAY...THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION STAYING DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY. VFR EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY AREA TAF
SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE AT KMRY AND KSNS
AIRPORTS UNDER HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG IS A LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WINDS OF 15 KTS
OR LESS EXPECTD.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING NEAR MONTEREY
BAY WILL IMPACT KMRY AND KSNS THROUGH 20Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT SATURDAY...NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROUGH. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL DEVELOP CREATING SOME
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE START OF CRAB SEASON. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
ENTERING MONTEREY BAY WILL CREATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS FROM
ASILOMAR TO MONTEREY STATE BEACHES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW WITH PLENTY STILL OUT OVER
THE WATERS HEADING TOWARD OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT HAS NOT PICKED UP ANY STRIKES, THE PATTERN IS
DEFINITELY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP TODAY.
ECHOS HAVE GENERALLY BENN UNDER 50 DBZ, ALTHOUGH SEEING A FEW
RETURNS OVER 55. PROBABLY GETTING SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THEM.
KOAK SOUNDING AND PROFILERS ALSO PEG THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
5,700 FEET SUGGESTING THAT LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 5,000 FEET ARE
PROBABLY GETTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ANYWAY, CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROF AND LATEST HRRR INFORMATION, WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE
POPS A BIT FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE REGION.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FORECAST MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 200-600 J/KG. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BAY...THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION STAYING DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT SATURDAY... RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OFFSHORE OF COAST
THIS MORNING. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY AREA
TAF SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE AT KMRY AND
KSNS AIRPORTS UNDER HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING FOG
SATURDAY MORNING... HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS A LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH CIGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.
HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE VICINITY NO LATER THAN
16Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STILL EVIDENT IN THE SOUTH
BAY AT 12Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 16KT AROUND 00Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING NEAR MONTEREY
BAY WILL IMPACT KMRY AND KSNS THROUGH 20Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
STRONGER RAIN CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS. NW WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. SEAS OF UP 10 TO 12 FEET WILL DEVELOP
CREATING SOME HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE START OF CRAB SEASON. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL ENTERING MONTEREY BAY WILL CREATE STRONG RIP
CURRENTS FROM ASILOMAR TO MONTEREY STATE BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
SURFACE HEATING WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE
HEATING WILL ALLOW MORE VERTICAL MIXING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND OF THAT
PACIFIC STORM MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD AND SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS SFC GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN BATTLE BETWEEN
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND COLDER CONDITIONS ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS UTAH. LATEST SHRT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN
ACTIVE MORNING PERIOD AS WEAK WAVE EJECTING OUT AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARRIVES. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO PICK-UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND LATEST HRRR MODEL DRIVES THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. H7
SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 15Z AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS GRADIENTS
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...NOT PLANNING ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
WITH RAIN HITTING THE VALLEY FLOORS...SO MOMENTUM TRANSFER LIKELY
HINDERED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING IN. WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR VALUES EXPERIENCE YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT TODAY.
AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AN INITIAL
WAVE OF ENERGY SPLITS OFF AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE STORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH IN THE EVENING IS PROGGED
TO STALL ROUGHLY ALONG A KDWX TO 20 TO 30 MILES EAST OF KPGA LINE
BY 12Z/SUN. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IN
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS A 100KT JET NOSES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BRING A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. MEANWHILE...7H TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR ZERO ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
ACCUMULATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY BALANCED JET
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HOLDS THE SYSTEM
IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT EASES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF CAA. CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO MARKEDLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW 8000 FEET. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOUNTAIN
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET ALIGNED WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPECIFICALLY...THIS WATCH WILL INCLUDE
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH...THE GRAND MESA...AND THE FLAT
TOPS. ALSO INCLUDED ARE THE WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS FAVORED. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL
COULD POTENTIALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE ON HIGHER SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. UNDERSTANDABLY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
FLAT RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED. WITH THE RIDGE COMES DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HEATING
WILL HELP NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AGAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL AFFECTED KASE...KEGE AND KTEX...WITH OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINWAVE TURBULENCE DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ009-012-013-018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JDC/NL
LONG TERM...NL/JDC
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
327 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD AND SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS SFC GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN BATTLE BETWEEN
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND COLDER CONDITIONS ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS UTAH. LATEST SHRT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN
ACTIVE MORNING PERIOD AS WEAK WAVE EJECTING OUT AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARRIVES. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO PICK-UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND LATEST HRRR MODEL DRIVES THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. H7
SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 15Z AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS GRADIENTS
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...NOT PLANNING ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
WITH RAIN HITTING THE VALLEY FLOORS...SO MOMENTUM TRANSFER LIKELY
HINDERED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING IN. WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR VALUES EXPERIENCE YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT TODAY.
AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AN INITIAL
WAVE OF ENERGY SPLITS OFF AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE STORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH IN THE EVENING IS PROGGED
TO STALL ROUGHLY ALONG A KDWX TO 20 TO 30 MILES EAST OF KPGA LINE
BY 12Z/SUN. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IN
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS A 100KT JET NOSES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BRING A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. MEANWHILE...7H TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR ZERO ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
ACCUMULATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY BALANCED JET
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HOLDS THE SYSTEM
IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT EASES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF CAA. CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO MARKEDLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW 8000 FEET. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOUNTAIN
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET ALIGNED WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPECIFICALLY...THIS WATCH WILL INCLUDE
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH...THE GRAND MESA...AND THE FLAT
TOPS. ALSO INCLUDED ARE THE WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS FAVORED. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL
COULD POTENTIALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE ON HIGHER SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. UNDERSTANDABLY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
FLAT RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED. WITH THE RIDGE COMES DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AFTER
18Z...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AGAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 9500 FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ009-012-013-018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 9500 FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC/NL
LONG TERM...NL/JDC
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
...VERY WINDY TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...
.UPDATE...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN GA AND SC WILL
PIVOT ESE TODAY AND HELP FUNNEL IN COLD AND DRY AIR. LATEST CHECK OF
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE GFS HAD A BETTER HANDLE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WINDS IN THE WIND ADVY CRITERIA
RANGE AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WITH INITIAL
SURGE OF COLD AIR. UNSEASONABLE COLD HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
AS TEMPS SLOWLY CRAWL UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUN.
RECORD LOW MAX FOR TODAYS DATE IS 56 AT ALL 4 OF OUR MAJOR CLIMATE
STATIONS (AMG/SSI/JAX/GNV) AND LOOKING AT THE SFC DATA WILL COULD
MAKE NEW RECORDS AT JAX...SSI AND AMG.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS. WSW WIND OF 15-25KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED. SOME STRATO CU WILL MOVE INTO THE
SSI AREA BUT VFR STILL EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AIR AND PRES GRADIENT WILL CONT TO SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS OF 25-35 KT. RECENT REPORT FROM 41008 JUST N OF THE
WATERS WAS 29G39KT RECENTLY. ONLY CHANGE WAS EXPAND GALE WARNING
INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS RAP MODEL AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOWED DECENT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS. IT WAS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO SEE 6 FT SEAS ONLY 7 MILES OUT AT 41112 BUOY SO MADE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEAS. IN ANY CASE...CERTAINLY A
DANGEROUS CONDITION RIGHT NOW FOR EVEN MODERATE SIZE BOATERS WITH
STEEP/BREAKING WAVES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.FIRE WX...CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET FOR RED FLAG WARNING IN MARION
COUNTY WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 25 TO 29 PERCENT...JUST BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA. DISPERSION VALUES ALSO QUITE EXCESSIVE DUE TO
STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS A LITTLE ABOVE 4000 FT.
REST OF THE AREA FALLS SHORT OF RED FLAG CONDS TODAY BUT A FIRE
SENSITIVE DAY WITH DRIER AIR AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 57 43 62 44 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 57 39 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 44 63 49 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 58 37 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 60 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARION.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
WARE-WAYNE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHASHY/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
452 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/CSRA THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK
MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT QUICKLY EASTWARD AND OFF THE SC COAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS AND TRAFFIC
CAMS FROM THE UPSTATE INDICATE SNOW FALLING IN/AROUND THE
GREENVILLE AREA WITH BRIGHT BAND OF PRECIPITATION AT 4 AM THIS
MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FAR WESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA
DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER MOISTURE. MORNING
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS H850 TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW 0
DEGREES C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SC. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -7
DEGREES ACROSS NRN GA/ERN TN AND ACROSS WRN NC. THIS IS ACTUALLY
COLDER THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODELS RUNS. EXPECT THESE
IMPRESSIVE H850 TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AT CAE ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE SOUNDING
BELOW FREEZE FROM AROUND 1K FT UPWARD AT 9 AM. THE SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATES A PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR GRAUPEL
TO THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH TO MENTION OTHERWISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH
RUNS FROM 4 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING
BY KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. A
FEW COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S...BUT MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TREND IN MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO
FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN...BUT FORECAST TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE RECORDS FOR
AGS AND CAE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...BUT A FREEZE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED LATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIX WITH RAIN AT CAE/CUB DURING THE
MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AND SREF INDICATE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
10Z-18Z. VFR AT AGS/DNL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNRISE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF
THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUST A FEW CLIMATE NOTES FOR THE PERIOD...
THE EARLIEST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL...NOT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...AT
COLUMBIA IS NOVEMBER 9TH 1913.
THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT COLUMBIA IS NOVEMBER 19TH
1901 WHEN 3.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.
LOOKING AT THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE NOVEMBER 3RD.
THE RECORD LOW AT COLUMBIA IS 27 DEGREES SET IN 1963 AND 1954.
THE RECORD LOW AT AUGUSTA IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1954.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
851 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN STATES WITH CENTER OF
MAIN FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF RENO THIS MORNING. STRONG DRYING SLOT
BEHIND LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO THIS MORNING
PER WV SAT IMAGERY. SECOND SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
NEVADA AHEAD OF MAIN FEATURE. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEVADA. MODELS STILL STRONGLY HINTING AT CENTER OF UPPER
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA EJECTS NORTHEAST WITH NEGATIVE
TILT TO TROUGH. LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION PROGGED TO ARRIVE
APPROX NOON PER HRRR WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF LINE OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THEN CONTINUING BEHIND THE LINE.
SFC WINDS FROM HRRR SUGGEST STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED SVR GUSTS WITH MODEL INSTABILITY PAINTED ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG WITH 50KT 700MB SUPPORT. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTN...ROUGHLY 00Z. TIMING ON GRIDS LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PATTERN. WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES IN
PLACE AT THIS TIME. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER WILL BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE IN
SOUTHEAST IDAHO. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING DOWN TO
SURFACE AS LARGE UPPER TROF MOVES ONTO PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AFTER 10 AM THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION TODAY WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS STILL IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DROP
FROM OVER 9 THOUSAND FEET THIS MORNING TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON ON SUNDAY WITH UP TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND ISSUED ONE FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
HIGHLANDS AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 4
TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS MAY REACH VALLEY
FLOORS BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY END SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BUT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GK
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET. MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE RIDGE WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD AND MAY BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S. GFS ENSEMBLES THOUGH PAINT A FLATTER
RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC
NW. ECMWF CURRENTLY IS THE OUTLIER FOR FRIDAY AS IT BRINGS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE
DRY ZONAL FLOW. GEM MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF FOR FRIDAY...BUT A
BIT SLOWER. NO CLEAR SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO EXTENDED PERIODS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
AVIATION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NV. THIS WILL MEAN AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO NEAR THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT SPEEDS NOT THAT STRONG JUST YET. MODELS BRING
PRECIP TO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. KPIH AND KIDA MAY STAY DRY
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
IN THE LATE EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOWERING CEILINGS AROUND 06Z. TIMING FOR BELOW VFR CONDITIONS AT
KSUN COMES AROUND 00Z. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-021>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR THE IDZ032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY IDZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
835 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE RAIN ONSET CONTINUES TO APPEAR DELAYED FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS...AND 00Z UPPER AIR STRONGLY SUPPORTS A WEAKER RETURN OF
MOISTURE COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS FROM MODELS AND WPC. SINCE
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH ANALYSIS AND 00Z NAM OUTPUT...I HAVE
UPDATED TO DRY OUT THE MONDAY PERIOD...AND NARROW THE DURATION OF
LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE
LOST CONFIDENCE...WITH SUCH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN...AND HAVE THUS
BEEN LOWERED TO LIKELY.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
GUSTY S/SE WINDS 15-30 MPH USHERING IN MILDER AIR WITH TEMPS 5-10+
DEGS WARMER FROM 24 HRS AGO. 2 PM TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID 50S FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE PERSISTENT MID CLOUDINESS FINALLY
MOVING EAST. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS THE TEMPS
HAVE MANAGED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 50 OR LOWER 50S. MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS AND OBS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TX TO WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TONIGHT... MID CLOUDS TO EXIT FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT. CANT TOTALLY RULE
OUT EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT BUT
PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR MAY LIMIT TO MAINLY VIRGA THUS NO
MENTION. LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD KEEP BL MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IF NOT
A LITTLE ABOVE DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND HAVE LOWS IN RANGE OF
37-44F.
MONDAY... BREEZY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN LOOKS TO
LARGELY REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM
WESTERN IA THROUGH OK WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BENEATH
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... WITH SECONDARY DEFORMATION
RAIN SWATH EMERGING FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AS THE MOIST AXIS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS. SOUTH WINDS 15-30 MPH
TO CONTINUE USHERING IN WARMER AIR AND DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BOOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 60S
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
MONDAY NIGHT... INCREASING LIFT (APPROACHING FRONT... UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK) COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
(PWATS 1-1.3+ INCHES) TO SUPPORT PERIOD OF RAIN MANY LOCATIONS.
HEAVIEST RAINS AT THIS TIME FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD WHERE
BEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0.4 TO 0.6 INCH POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS SUGGESTED
AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO BE NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z TUE.
MILDEST LOWS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM AROUND 50 OR LOWER
50S... WHILE COOLEST FAR NORTHWEST CWA (LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER MID WEST..HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. MODEL TO MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT..MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD
CONVERGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WHERE THIS SYSTEM
WILL ULTIMATELY GO. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SEEM REASONABLE
TO MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUN MODEL RUNS PROG THE TROF THAT PASSED
OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DIG AN
IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AS
THIS TROF/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATES NORTHEAST IT WILL CREATE A BROAD
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
BROAD FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS PROG ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WITH S/SE WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WITH NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS IN
1500-2000FT AGL RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD END AROUND 14Z/03. I
HAVE NOT ADDED SHOWERS...BUT SOME COULD APPROACH THE CID TAF AFTER
22Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
BETWEEN 00Z/04 AND 06Z/04.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
523 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
GUSTY S/SE WINDS 15-30 MPH USHERING IN MILDER AIR WITH TEMPS 5-10+
DEGS WARMER FROM 24 HRS AGO. 2 PM TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID 50S FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE PERSISTENT MID CLOUDINESS FINALLY
MOVING EAST. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS THE TEMPS
HAVE MANAGED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 50 OR LOWER 50S. MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS AND OBS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TX TO WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TONIGHT... MID CLOUDS TO EXIT FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT. CANT TOTALLY RULE
OUT EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT BUT
PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR MAY LIMIT TO MAINLY VIRGA THUS NO
MENTION. LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD KEEP BL MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IF NOT
A LITTLE ABOVE DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND HAVE LOWS IN RANGE OF
37-44F.
MONDAY... BREEZY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN LOOKS TO
LARGELY REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM
WESTERN IA THROUGH OK WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BENEATH
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... WITH SECONDARY DEFORMATION
RAIN SWATH EMERGING FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AS THE MOIST AXIS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS. SOUTH WINDS 15-30 MPH
TO CONTINUE USHERING IN WARMER AIR AND DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BOOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 60S
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
MONDAY NIGHT... INCREASING LIFT (APPROACHING FRONT... UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK) COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
(PWATS 1-1.3+ INCHES) TO SUPPORT PERIOD OF RAIN MANY LOCATIONS.
HEAVIEST RAINS AT THIS TIME FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD WHERE
BEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0.4 TO 0.6 INCH POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS SUGGESTED
AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO BE NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z TUE.
MILDEST LOWS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM AROUND 50 OR LOWER
50S... WHILE COOLEST FAR NORTHWEST CWA (LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER MID WEST..HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. MODEL TO MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT..MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD
CONVERGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WHERE THIS SYSTEM
WILL ULTIMATELY GO. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SEEM REASONABLE
TO MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUN MODEL RUNS PROG THE TROF THAT PASSED
OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DIG AN
IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AS
THIS TROF/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATES NORTHEAST IT WILL CREATE A BROAD
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
BROAD FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS PROG ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WITH S/SE WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WITH NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS IN
1500-2000FT AGL RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD END AROUND 14Z/03. I
HAVE NOT ADDED SHOWERS...BUT SOME COULD APPROACH THE CID TAF AFTER
22Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
BETWEEN 00Z/04 AND 06Z/04.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
459 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING ZONES AND GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR RECEIVING SOME STRONGER
RETURNS WITH A REPORT OF SPRINKLES OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.
THE HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES SOME RETURNS OVER THE FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST THAN YESTERDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT PLUS THERE IS A RATHER
STRONG LEE/PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THIS
DOES MAKE SENSE.
STEADY AND GUSTY WINDS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THICKER
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RATHER
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. RAISED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS A RESULT.
VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT LOOKS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY NOON OR SO.
THEN NOT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO
HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER PLUS SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING. COOLEST MAXES LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF.
CONSIDERED HAVING FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IF
FRONT SLOWS DOWN EVEN MORE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...THEN THAT
TEMPERATURE TREND WILL NOT HAPPEN.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AS A
RESULT OF LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON LOW THETA-E LAPSE RATES. PROBLEM IS THAT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BELIEVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH VERY FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND ACCOMPANYING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. HOWEVER...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES DID INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE WHAT CAPE THERE IS WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEARLY DONE BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS MONDAY NIGHT LEADS
TO A SUNNY SKY TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
WHERE BETTER 850-500MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST. RIGHT NOW DONT THINK
ENOUGH FORCING AND LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. 100+ KT 250 JET NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY PUSHING THIS DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. GENERALLY CLEAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TO MID 30S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. ON WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO...LOW
TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY THEN CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA. UPPER HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA WITH RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 3C EAST TO 11C WEST
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
30-35...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS. BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS ABOUT 3F COLDER THEN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECTING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE
AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM AT BEST
RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...HOPEFULLY DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT ON LATER
SHIFTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 7C FROM THURSDAYS FORECAST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO 70F. NUDGED READINGS UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM EXTENDED PROCEDURE AS A RESULT. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRIDAYS WEATHER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING LEAVING A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS COME DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BY DARK. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10F COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS A BIT FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. 850-500MB LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...MAYBE A BIT MORE IF THE GFS 850MB TEMPS
VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SO ISOLATED SO THAT INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT
KGLD INDICATES SOME STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS AT KGLD MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONTINUES AT KMCK AND RESUMES AT KGLD AROUND 16Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INCREASING
TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Early this morning at 08Z the surface high pressure ridge extended
from northeast Iowa across northeast Kansas into south central
Oklahoma. Light southeast winds have developed across north central
Kansas on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures were in
the 20s and dewpoint temps were in the teens to lower 20s.
An upper level trough was moving into the the west coast while a
ridge was building over the High Plains. As the upper trough
continues to move eastward the upper ridge will build into the
Plains Today then move eastward tonight with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Kansas early Sunday morning. Pressure gradient
increases today across western and central Kansas east of a trough
of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and on the back side of
the surface high. Models vary how deep mixing will be today across
north central Kansas. RUC mixes deeper than the NAM and have going
with a blend of the two and have bumped up temperatures and
increased winds. Winds could gust to around 30 mph in north central
Kansas this afternoon.
Pressure gradient will gradually increase tonight as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. This will keep the lower boundary
layer mixed and overnight lows warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Skies will be partly cloudy tonight with clouds developing in warm
advection regime.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Low level inversion remains strong through Sunday afternoon, with
mixing depths limited to a few thousand feet on even the most
aggressive NAM, so despite a rather strong pressure gradient and
850mb winds near 50kt, expect surface winds to remain below Advisory
speeds. Warm air advection will still lead to temps 10-15F above
today`s levels however.
Moisture slowly increases in the middle to lower layers Sunday night
into Monday evening as large-scale upper trough works it way east
into the Plains. There is some decent agreement with a weak wave
entering northern Kansas Sunday night so will maintain small chances
for mainly northern and western areas then, with still the greater
coverage anticipated in the late day and evening hours Monday.
Instability remains meager but enough for a thunder mention.
After perhaps some lingering showers early Tuesday as the trough
exits, remainder of the week is looking dry. Models are similar with
southern end of trough cutting off from the flow in the New
Mexico/West Texas area, but differ with what to do with it from
there. ECMWF seems to be backing off the idea of bringing it
northeast into the area with none of the GFS ensemble members doing
so, so no precip chance will be included in the latter periods.
Temps look to bounce around a bit in fairly quick zonal flow over
the northern states, with slightly warmer temps for Wednesday but
cooler again Thursday behind a Pacific cold front, and southerly
winds returning Friday for modification to occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Main focus will be winds with VFR conditions prevailing. Overnight there
may be an occasional gusts around 20 kt at any of the sites. Also,
the soundings show wind shear of about 30 to 40 kts in a 2 kft
layer lasting most of the overnight hours and into late morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
628 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Early this morning at 08Z the surface high pressure ridge extended
from northeast Iowa across northeast Kansas into south central
Oklahoma. Light southeast winds have developed across north central
Kansas on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures were in
the 20s and dewpoint temps were in the teens to lower 20s.
An upper level trough was moving into the the west coast while a
ridge was building over the High Plains. As the upper trough
continues to move eastward the upper ridge will build into the
Plains Today then move eastward tonight with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Kansas early Sunday morning. Pressure gradient
increases today across western and central Kansas east of a trough
of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and on the back side of
the surface high. Models vary how deep mixing will be today across
north central Kansas. RUC mixes deeper than the NAM and have going
with a blend of the two and have bumped up temperatures and
increased winds. Winds could gust to around 30 mph in north central
Kansas this afternoon.
Pressure gradient will gradually increase tonight as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. This will keep the lower boundary
layer mixed and overnight lows warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Skies will be partly cloudy tonight with clouds developing in warm
advection regime.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Low level inversion remains strong through Sunday afternoon, with
mixing depths limited to a few thousand feet on even the most
aggressive NAM, so despite a rather strong pressure gradient and
850mb winds near 50kt, expect surface winds to remain below Advisory
speeds. Warm air advection will still lead to temps 10-15F above
today`s levels however.
Moisture slowly increases in the middle to lower layers Sunday night
into Monday evening as large-scale upper trough works it way east
into the Plains. There is some decent agreement with a weak wave
entering northern Kansas Sunday night so will maintain small chances
for mainly northern and western areas then, with still the greater
coverage anticipated in the late day and evening hours Monday.
Instability remains meager but enough for a thunder mention.
After perhaps some lingering showers early Tuesday as the trough
exits, remainder of the week is looking dry. Models are similar with
southern end of trough cutting off from the flow in the New
Mexico/West Texas area, but differ with what to do with it from
there. ECMWF seems to be backing off the idea of bringing it
northeast into the area with none of the GFS ensemble members doing
so, so no precip chance will be included in the latter periods.
Temps look to bounce around a bit in fairly quick zonal flow over
the northern states, with slightly warmer temps for Wednesday but
cooler again Thursday behind a Pacific cold front, and southerly
winds returning Friday for modification to occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Winds will increase from the southeast and south to around 13 kts
with gusts up to 24 kts after 17Z. Winds will continue in the 10
to 15 kt range after 00Z. VFR conditions are expected with a deck
around 9 kft developing after 01Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
332 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Early this morning at 08Z the surface high pressure ridge extended
from northeast Iowa across northeast Kansas into south central
Oklahoma. Light southeast winds have developed across north central
Kansas on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures were in
the 20s and dewpoint temps were in the teens to lower 20s.
An upper level trough was moving into the the west coast while a
ridge was building over the High Plains. As the upper trough
continues to move eastward the upper ridge will build into the
Plains Today then move eastward tonight with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Kansas early Sunday morning. Pressure gradient
increases today across western and central Kansas east of a trough
of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and on the back side of
the surface high. Models vary how deep mixing will be today across
north central Kansas. RUC mixes deeper than the NAM and have going
with a blend of the two and have bumped up temperatures and
increased winds. Winds could gust to around 30 mph in north central
Kansas this afternoon.
Pressure gradient will gradually increase tonight as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. This will keep the lower boundary
layer mixed and overnight lows warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Skies will be partly cloudy tonight with clouds developing in warm
advection regime.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Low level inversion remains strong through Sunday afternoon, with
mixing depths limited to a few thousand feet on even the most
aggressive NAM, so despite a rather strong pressure gradient and
850mb winds near 50kt, expect surface winds to remain below Advisory
speeds. Warm air advection will still lead to temps 10-15F above
today`s levels however.
Moisture slowly increases in the middle to lower layers Sunday night
into Monday evening as large-scale upper trough works it way east
into the Plains. There is some decent agreement with a weak wave
entering northern Kansas Sunday night so will maintain small chances
for mainly northern and western areas then, with still the greater
coverage anticipated in the late day and evening hours Monday.
Instability remains meager but enough for a thunder mention.
After perhaps some lingering showers early Tuesday as the trough
exits, remainder of the week is looking dry. Models are similar with
southern end of trough cutting off from the flow in the New
Mexico/West Texas area, but differ with what to do with it from
there. ECMWF seems to be backing off the idea of bringing it
northeast into the area with none of the GFS ensemble members doing
so, so no precip chance will be included in the latter periods.
Temps look to bounce around a bit in fairly quick zonal flow over
the northern states, with slightly warmer temps for Wednesday but
cooler again Thursday behind a Pacific cold front, and southerly
winds returning Friday for modification to occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the forecast.
Scattered cirrus before 14z will give way to scattered AC around
10 kft thru the remainder of the forecast. VRB/east winds under 5
kts until 14z will veer to the south and southeast and increase
through 17z with gusts 18-24kts remainder of the TAF
fcst...although gusts may decrease some aft 00z/02.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ011-012-
021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1014 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MADE THE
DECISION TO GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE SOME VALLEYS WERE LOWERED 4 TO 5
DEGREES DEPENDING ON THEIR CURRENT TEMP...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CWA WERE LOWERED AN AVERAGE OF TWO DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CURRENT
LOWS. AFTER RERUNNING THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT...ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TEMP LOWERING TRENDS WERE STILL WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL END UP
BOTTOMING OUT LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED
IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEED TO BE MADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEW POINTS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP FROM VERY CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE OF 50 DEGREE READINGS NOTED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL HAVE A MODERATE RIDGE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AS ANY ENERGY AT THE MID LEVELS STAY
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING AS
COLD OR A TOUCH COLDER MONDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM CONCLUDED
FOR THIS YEAR EARLIER TODAY. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS
THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AGAIN GOOD CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND A MILDER
STARTING POINT FOR THE NIGHTLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. ALSO USED THE MAX AND MIN GRIDS FROM THIS BLENDED MODEL
AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME MAJOR ELEVATIONALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS
EACH NIGHT OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SETUP FOR FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OUT OF
THE UPPER PLAINS. AS WELL AT THIS TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG A
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM TRACKS EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE FIRST WAVES TRACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS TRY TO FORM A COASTAL LOW WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTH SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW BOTH
MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WAVE TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UP
AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS THE SUPER
BLEND MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON POPS TO START THE EVENT ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AGAIN FOR WED AND THU.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVING STRONGER WAVE AFTERWARD PUTS NEEDED
FORCING IN QUESTION. THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE NEXT
STRONGER WAVE DIVES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS TRACKS A DEVELOPED
SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHEREAS THE EURO IS MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH A COASTAL LOW RACKING NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY FOR POPS...DID STICK WITH THE
SUPER BLEND MODEL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT AVERAGE
OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WX QUIET THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY...MAKING
FOR EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SITES LATER MONDAY. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE PERIOD AS THE
HIGH CENTERS ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
658 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL END UP
BOTTOMING OUT LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED
IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEED TO BE MADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEW POINTS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP FROM VERY CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE OF 50 DEGREE READINGS NOTED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL HAVE A MODERATE RIDGE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AS ANY ENERGY AT THE MID LEVELS STAY
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING AS
COLD OR A TOUCH COLDER MONDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM CONCLUDED
FOR THIS YEAR EARLIER TODAY. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS
THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AGAIN GOOD CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND A MILDER
STARTING POINT FOR THE NIGHTLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. ALSO USED THE MAX AND MIN GRIDS FROM THIS BLENDED MODEL
AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME MAJOR ELEVATIONALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS
EACH NIGHT OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SETUP FOR FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OUT OF
THE UPPER PLAINS. AS WELL AT THIS TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG A
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM TRACKS EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE FIRST WAVES TRACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS TRY TO FORM A COASTAL LOW WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTH SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW BOTH
MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WAVE TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UP
AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS THE SUPER
BLEND MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON POPS TO START THE EVENT ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AGAIN FOR WED AND THU.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVING STRONGER WAVE AFTERWARD PUTS NEEDED
FORCING IN QUESTION. THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE NEXT
STRONGER WAVE DIVES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS TRACKS A DEVELOPED
SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHEREAS THE EURO IS MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH A COASTAL LOW RACKING NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY FOR POPS...DID STICK WITH THE
SUPER BLEND MODEL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT AVERAGE
OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WX QUIET THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY...MAKING
FOR EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SITES LATER MONDAY. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE PERIOD AS THE
HIGH CENTERS ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A POTENT PRE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS DEEPENING FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING FOR
PARTS OF LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THERE THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST...THERE WILL BE JUST
A THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS DEPARTING. THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AND AN
SPS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT TOO GONE FAR FROM MORNING LOWS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE CAA...PCPN...AND THICK CLOUDS. AT
THIS POINT...READINGS VARY FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE
MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...THOUGH 28 IS SEEN ON BLACK MOUNTAIN AND 32 AT
THE DORTON MESONET SITE. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE WITH STRONGLY RISING HEIGHTS
TO HELP US PUT THIS EARLY TASTE OF WINTER BEHIND US. IN GENERAL...
FOLLOWED THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER AFTER TONIGHT ONCE THE
PCPN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END IN THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW BRINGING A HARD FREEZE AND
FROST TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAWN. FOR THIS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER DAY TIME TEMPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOSE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN A GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATION COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS GETTING AS COLD
IF NOT COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE TONIGHT WHILE RIDGES SETTLE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WOULD ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO RESULT FROM THESE
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY OUR GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. WENT WITH
MORE OF A DIURNAL CURVE FROM THE NAM12 FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AFTER
EDITING THE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS. GIVEN HOW THE CONSSHORT WAS IN THE
TOO WARM INITIALLY HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM IT FOR TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...
WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WAS KEPT LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL ANCHORED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
EXITS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM EXITING THE REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WILL KEEP A STEADY
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE LACK OF HEATING AND THE SURFACE FEATURE
WEAKENING AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE EXTENDED. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO KEEP
FROM COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SO WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS
THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BIT OF FLIP FLOPPING IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE LIFR AND IFR CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE
EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA AND THEN VFR BY DAWN...STAYING THAT WAY INTO THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE SETTLING THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE COMPLETELY OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-
118.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1258 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
No major changes in the forecast for this afternoon. Clouds hanging
on tough from SDF to GLW and points eastward. Model guidance trends
suggest this will begin to scatter out in the next few hours, but
will lean on the latest satellite and observations and play the
forecast more pessimistic, keeping stratus deck in place through the
early evening. The low cloud cover is keeping temperatures held down
in mid to upper 30s across the Bluegrass and Cumberland regions, so
have trended highs down a couple more degrees. Some of these areas
will see steady or only a very slow rise. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast is on track.
Issued at 912 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Minor adjustments made to the forecast for the remainder of the
morning hours and into the early afternoon. Still deep in the
cyclonic flow as another lobe of vorticity rotates through the
eastern forecast area. Upstream radar and observations show
scattered snow showers that will pivot south over the next several
hours. Increased POPs to the 30-50 percent range. Snow showers
will remain light and not expecting any accumulations as snow
rates will be very light as well. Snow showers will transition to
rain/snow mix by early afternoon.
Temperatures were adjusted downward, especially in the east, as
clouds, precipitation, and cold advection will really dampen any
diurnal rise. Plan on overcast skies for much of the day as model RH
fields suggest clouds and low level moisture hanging around through
at least 21z or 00z. This will keep temperatures from rising much,
and some locations around LEX and points east likely to struggle to
break 40. Overall, an unseasonably cold and raw day on tap.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1255 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The MVFR stratus deck continues from SDF to GLW and points eastward,
including LEX, and this is expected to linger through the remainder
of the afternoon. Ceilings have been slow to lift with daytime
mixing, but SDF should gradually rise to VFR and scatter out by
00Z. LEX remains deeper within the cyclonic flow and latest
satellite and observations show the 1500-2000 ft ceilings
continuing well upstream. Model guidance is more optimistic with
this scattering out but trends suggest otherwise. Played the
forecast more pessimistic thinking that the low-level moisture
will remain trapped, but still suggest clouds scattering out later
this evening.
Gusty winds 20-25 kts will remain in place this afternoon but
eventually the surface high will move eastward, relaxing the
pressure gradient. This should set up light/variable winds at
BWG/SDF overnight with still a light north wind at LEX. Dry sub-cloud
conditions will preclude fog formation at BWG. For Sunday, plan on
VFR conditions with light winds and full sunshine.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
914 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 912 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Minor adjustments made to the forecast for the remainder of the
morning hours and into the early afternoon. Still deep in the
cyclonic flow as another lobe of vorticity rotates through the
eastern forecast area. Upstream radar and observations show
scattered snow showers that will pivot south over the next several
hours. Increased POPs to the 30-50 percent range. Snow showers
will remain light and not expecting any accumulations as snow
rates will be very light as well. Snow showers will transition to
rain/snow mix by early afternoon.
Temperatures were adjusted downward, especially in the east, as
clouds, precipitation, and cold advection will really dampen any
diurnal rise. Plan on overcast skies for much of the day as model RH
fields suggest clouds and low level moisture hanging around through
at least 21z or 00z. This will keep temperatures from rising much,
and some locations around LEX and points east likely to struggle to
break 40. Overall, an unseasonably cold and raw day on tap.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Some very light rain and snow wrapping around low pressure to our
southeast will continue at LEX through 13z before ending.
Visibilities at LEX will fall to high end MVFR at the lowest in any
light snow or rain.
MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF through around 14 to 15z before
lifting to low end VFR prior to clearing later this afternoon.
Ceilings at BWG will remain right above the MVFR threshold before
scattering out by early afternoon.
Winds this morning will continue brisk from the north northwest
before diminishing to north around 10 mph later this evening. Winds
will become nearly calm after midnight.
Skies will clear by 19z at SDF and BWG, while waiting past 21z to
clear at LEX. Clear skies are expected tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Some very light rain and snow wrapping around low pressure to our
southeast will continue at LEX through 13z before ending.
Visibilities at LEX will fall to high end MVFR at the lowest in
any light snow or rain.
MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF through around 14 to 15z before
lifting to low end VFR prior to clearing later this afternoon.
Ceilings at BWG will remain right above the MVFR threshold before
scattering out by early afternoon.
Winds this morning will continue brisk from the north northwest
before diminishing to north around 10 mph later this evening. Winds
will become nearly calm after midnight.
Skies will clear by 19z at SDF and BWG, while waiting past 21z to
clear at LEX. Clear skies are expected tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
330 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 100 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
As the core of a stout upper low dives south into Tennessee,
wrap-around precipitation in the form of light rain and snow will
diminish readily by 3am EDT. Prevailing visibilities will stay at or
above 6km in light snow or drizzle at SDF and LEX, with only a very
temporary dip to 4sm if a heavier band of snow moves over the
airport. Ceilings at LEX will stay IFR through 12z before slowly
lifting to MVFR through the early afternoon hours. Current low end
MVFR ceilings at SDF will also continue through 12z.
At BWG, ceilings will fall to MVFR and continue that way through
12z.
Winds will continue from the NNW tonight around 15kt with some gusts
above 25kt before slightly diminishing Saturday to 10 to 15kt.
Skies will slowly clear from west to east after 18z Saturday
afternoon. VFR conditions will develop after 17z at SDF and BWG, but
not until several hours later at LEX.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
OFFSHORE WHILE HEADING TOWARDS CAPE COD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE OF FORECAST TO REFINE POPS TODAY AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN BASED ON RADAR OVER PAST 3 HOURS AND HRRR FORECAST TRENDS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. CUTS BACK CHANCES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THIS
MORNING SCT SHRWS ARE MOVING SW DOWN THE SHEN VALLEY AND
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARE OVER THE BAYSHORE AND
LOWER S MD. THAT SAID HI RES MODELS DONT EXPAND THAT MUCH BEFORE
PRECIP STARTS SHUTTING DOWN EAST OF THE MTNS AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONSOLIDATES. WILL CONT TO MONITOR RADAR IN CASE TREND STARTS TO
REVERSE AND POP CHANCES INCREASE...BUT FOR NOW...CHANCES OUTSIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS NOT HIGH.
S/WV HAS PLUNGED SEWD TO ERN SC AS OF 9AM PER WATER VAPOR LOOP.
TWITTER REPORTS HAVE COME IN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW NEAR COLUMBIA
SC WITH THE CORE OF THIS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR DIVING INTO THE
SE.
MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRNTL BNDRY CN BE FOUND OFF THE ATLC CST.
CWFA MAINLY IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. SOME LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
FOUND OVER THE BAY...EAST BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS AND DOWN INTO S
MD. OTRW...CLDY BUT DRY CONDS PREVAIL. CONCURRENTLY...A 2ND
LOPRES CENTER WL MEANDER NEWD OFF THE DELMARVA TWD LONG
ISLAND/CAPE COD.
ATTM...THERES NOT A LOT OF SUBFREEZING AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. OUR
MORNING WEATHER BALLOON AT DULLES HAD ABOVE FREEZING FROM 5000FT
TO THE SURFACE. THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW WL BE KEEPING THE CORE OF
THE POLAR PLUNGE W OF THE CWFA TDA. THAT WL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY WAA COMING IN FM THE NE DUE TO THE INITIAL CSTL LOW.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT ALMOST ANY PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA
DURING THE DAY TODAY TIL THE UPR LOW/VORT HITS THE COAST. SOLE
EXCEPTION IS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
ABOVE 3000FT WHICH COULD HAVE SOME NON ACCUMULATING WET SNOW
DURING THE DAY. 9AM FREEZING LEVEL THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ABOVE
NATHANIEL MOUNTAINS 3000FT...WHICH REPORTED 33F AT 9AM.
UVV WL BE IMPRVG THRU THE DAY...AGN COURTESY OF THE INIT LOW AND
THE WAA/DEFORMATION IT PROVIDES. PCPN SHUD BE ADVCG FM NE TO SW.
ONCE CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS...WNDS WL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SUGGESTING AT 15-20 KT SUSTAINED FLOW BLURDG EWD
DVLPG DURING THE AFTN...AND MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS G25KT.
HV INFUSED THAT DATA INTO GRIDS.
NO BIG CHG TO MAXT FCST. DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE STRUGGLING TO REACH
50F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR THIS PD WL BE FOR A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE
PASSING NE OFF HATTERAS. DRY AIR WL WRAP ARND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STORM...MAKING THE WINDS THE BIG STORY TNGT-TMRW. LLJ 40-50 KT BHD
DEPARTING LOW. PROJECTED HGT FALLS SUGGEST THAT WE/LL HV MIXING IN
SPITE OF POOR DIURNAL THERMAL PROFILE. SNDGS WL PROVIDE DEEPER
MIXING AS THE JET DEPARTS. THUS...THE DAYTIME HRS SUNDAY WL BE THE
WINDIER TIMEFRAME. GDNC SUPPORTS NNW 20G30-35KT. IF TOP OF THE MIXED
LYR ACHIEVED...THEN CUD HV SOME G40KT MIDDAY SUNDAY. WL ADD TO HWO.
FLOW DIRECTION NOT TOO FVRBL FOR SGNFT UPSLP PCPN. IT CERTAINLY WL
BE COLD ENUF THO FOR ANY PCPN IN THE MTNS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNW.
CITING STRONG CAA AND CHANNELED PVA...BELIEVE THAT WE/LL HV A PD OF
LGT PCPN TNGT...LINGERING INTO SUN MRNG. AM KEEPING CAT/LKLY POPS
TNGT...FAVORING WRN PENDLETON/HIGHLAND CNTYS. CHC POPS LINGER TO
MIDDAY SUN. ACCUMS WL BE ON THE LWR SIDE...UNDER ADVY CRIT. DAYSHIFT
WL HV THE OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS SITUATION.
SHUD HV AMPLE CLDCVR TIL THE TROF AXIS CROSSES. THAT MEANS MOCLDY
SKIES TNGT. ANY TEMP DROP WL BE PURELY ADVECTIVE. FOR THAT REASON AM
NOT GOING SUPER COLD...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. MIN-T FCST IN THE 30S WL
BE CHILLY...ENHANCED BY WIND CHILLS. THE ONLY PLACES WHERE SUBFRZG
TEMPS FCSTD ARE SAME LOCATIONS WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
CLDS WL HANG TOUGH IN THE MTNS SUN. HWVR...DUE TO THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE FLOW...THE RDG BLDS IN QUITE QUICKLY...THE SUBSIDENCE OF
WHICH SHUD ERODE CLDS DURING THE AFTN. WE/RE UNDER THE COLD POOL
THO...SO CLDS WONT COMPLETELY DSPT. DUE TO THAT THERMAL STRUCTURE...
AM ON COLD SIDE OF MAXT GDNC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FORECAST PROBLEM IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS
WHETHER THE HIGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECOUPLING TO OCCUR
AND THUS TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND LESS LIKELY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE
FORECAST GRID REFLECTS THIS ACCORDINGLY...AND IN MANY AREAS IS AN
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THIS
TREND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH JUST YET.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PROGRADES OVER
THE AREA AND THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT HIGHS
TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS
QUIET. SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY DROP TO THE MID 30S...BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS STAY 40 OR HIGHER.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. THE RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO GET CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE FRONT ITSELF
DOES NOT HAVE PARTICULARLY STRONG UPPER SUPPORT...SO POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WERE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST
OF THE DIVIDE. THESE MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY. IT THEN LOOKS COOL AGAIN
FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS TODAY. FLGT CATEGORIES WL IMPRV MID-
LT AFTN. MRB LKLY THE LAST TO SEE SUCH PROGRESS. VFR THRU THE NGT.
WINDS LKLY TO BE THE BIGGER FACTOR TAFTN THRU TNGT INTO SUNDAY. NLY
FLOW 15G25KT TO DVLP BY MID AFTN. WL HV A 40-50 KT CORE OF WINDS
2000-3000 FT OFF THE DECK TNGT. WL HV SFC WNDS 20G30-35KT...SO WE
WONT QUITE ACHIEVE LLWS BY DEFINITION. WNDS WL BACK NWLY ON
SUNDAY...W/ 35 KT GUSTS LKLY.
SFC WINDS SHOULD LESSEN SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THOUGH COLD FRONTS WILL
SHIFT WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WL INCREASE THRU THE DAY AS LOPRES DVLPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HAVE GALE WARNING FOR THE BAY S OF SANDY PT INCL MOUTH OF
THE PTMC BASED ON MDL GDNC STRONGLY SUGGESTING G35 KT LKLY. AFTN
GUSTS 25-30 KT ELSW. ALL MARINE ZONES FCST TO HV 35-40 KT GUSTS
TNGT INTO SUN AS LOPRES DEEPENS IN THE WRN ATLC AND EJECTS NEWD.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. EXACTLY
HOW FAST REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA-LEVEL GUSTS
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SCA-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALL UNDER A FT ABOVE NORMAL...AND SHUDNT INCREASE
MUCH FURTHER. BLOWOUT FLOW DVLPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...DEPARTURES ON THE BAY
SHUD REACH 2 FT -BELOW- NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ANNAPOLIS NORTHWARD. THE
BLOWOUT SHUD BE LESS IN THE POTOMAC.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STRONG
PREV INFO...STRONG/HTS/JCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
943 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 7
DEGREES. SOUTH BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL
AS SOME FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS TO HELP TEMPERATURES STAY UP. WENT
CLOSER TO HRRR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
QUIET...BUT BREEZY...CONDITIONS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE...WITH THE MAIN AXIS SLIDING FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW. A
TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST/GULF REGIONS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN THOSE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. NO NOTABLE SURPRISES
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOOKING TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAIN STORY LIES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTED A
LOT GOING ON THIS EVENING...BUT ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A HEFTY LLJ DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 50+ KTS POSSIBLE. INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS JET WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...KEPT POPS LOW AS MODELS ARENT IN
THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF PLACEMENT...AND DID INCREASE
THEIR COVERAGE TO THE W/NWRN CWA WHERE MODELS SHOWING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AS WE GET INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...THE LLJ TAPERS OFF...WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TAKING OVER THE MAIN DRIVER OF LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN POPS ESP DURING THE MORNING IS NOT THE
GREATEST...AS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE...BUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE MAIN
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH BY MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY
LOCATED IN A NE TO SW ORIENTATION RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA...THEN CONTINUING ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS IN THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT...BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE. DECIDED
TO HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. AGAIN CONFIDENCE ISNT THE
HIGHEST...AND NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS BECAUSE
INSTABILITY...BUT MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF PERHAPS A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...SO COULD GET A FEW SCATTERED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER/LIGHTNING STRIKES.
DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE FOR TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AND HAVE A BLEND OF MODELS/GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID 60S IN
THE SE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AS
THE RESPONSIBLE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THEN LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...FOCUSING SUBSEQUENT
DISTURBANCES TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY MILD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...COULD SEE SOME COOLER AIR WORK
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS COOLER AIR IS FORCED SOUTH WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO OUR EAST. HENCE...WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...TEMPERATURES
ARE A BIT IN QUESTION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN COOLER AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...WHILE TEMPERATURES
MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE GENERALLY MILD FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. OTHER THAN THE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THE LOW-LEVEL JET SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THEN...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME FROM
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW DEEP WE MIX DURING
THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA...AND A TROUGH THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN TENNESSEE. IN BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE MS AND MO RIVERS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAD SET UP EARLY TONIGHT.
IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE MIXING AROUND
H9 OR H875 WHEREAS THE RAP MIXES HIGHER...AROUND H85. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER RANGE FROM 30KTS AROUND H9 TO 38KTS OR SO AT
H875. HARD TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BUT DID TREND WINDS UP
BASED ON THE RAP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON MIXING AND DID TREND READINGS
UP A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL LOOKING MARGINAL AS LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AOA 25 PERCENT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT FIRE CRITERIA AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
JUST DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH ATTM AND CONDITIONS...ARE
STILL BORDERLINE FOR MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE DPS WILL BE LOWER AND THIS
IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT QUITE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STEADY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS AND A MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MIGRATING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIGHTER SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG. WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND EVEN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT. THE MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ELEMENT. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE KGRI/KEAR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF
WEAKENING SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS WILL
BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. TOP END OF GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
BUT STEADY 15-20KT WIND REMAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ITS VFR IN TERMS OF CEILING AND
VISIBILITY...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW DEEP WE MIX DURING
THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA...AND A TROUGH THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN TENNESSEE. IN BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE MS AND MO RIVERS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAD SET UP EARLY TONIGHT.
IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE MIXING AROUND
H9 OR H875 WHEREAS THE RAP MIXES HIGHER...AROUND H85. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER RANGE FROM 30KTS AROUND H9 TO 38KTS OR SO AT
H875. HARD TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BUT DID TREND WINDS UP
BASED ON THE RAP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON MIXING AND DID TREND READINGS
UP A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL LOOKING MARGINAL AS LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AOA 25 PERCENT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT FIRE CRITERIA AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
JUST DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH ATTM AND CONDITIONS...ARE
STILL BORDERLINE FOR MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE DPS WILL BE LOWER AND THIS
IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT QUITE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STEADY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS AND A MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MIGRATING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIGHTER SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG. WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND EVEN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT. THE MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25KTS AND GUST OVER 30KTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THRU THE DAY AND STEADY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN INTENSE LLVL
JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SFC RAPIDLY
INCREASING NEAR 50KTS...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LLWS. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
336 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW DEEP WE MIX DURING
THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA...AND A TROUGH THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN TENNESSEE. IN BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE MS AND MO RIVERS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAD SET UP EARLY TONIGHT.
IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE MIXING AROUND
H9 OR H875 WHEREAS THE RAP MIXES HIGHER...AROUND H85. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER RANGE FROM 30KTS AROUND H9 TO 38KTS OR SO AT
H875. HARD TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BUT DID TREND WINDS UP
BASED ON THE RAP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON MIXING AND DID TREND READINGS
UP A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL LOOKING MARGINAL AS LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AOA 25 PERCENT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT FIRE CRITERIA AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
JUST DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH ATTM AND CONDITIONS...ARE
STILL BORDERLINE FOR MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE DPS WILL BE LOWER AND THIS
IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT QUITE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STEADY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS AND A MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MIGRATING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIGHTER SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG. WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND EVEN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT. THE MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SATURDAY IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN BETWEEN A
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 20KTS AND GUST OVER 30KTS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL
MESONET AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND
2500 FEET AND SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS LOW AS AROUND 1200 FEET.
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...WITH
THE LOW LEVELS STILL DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE LARGER
VALLEYS SO FAR. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTWARD. FREEZING LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY
5PM WITH SNOW LEVELS DESCENDING TO ABOUT 800-1000 FEET OR SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES INITIAL VORT MOVING ALONG THE NJ
COASTLINE WITH PRIMARY CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOME ENERGY ALSO EVIDENT WITH UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE INITIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AT 1000MB WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE FALLS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK INTENSIFYING
TO AROUND 995MB. THE SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY LATE TODAY WITH AN ANTICIPATED SIMILAR TRACK JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
INITIAL WAVE IS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND IMPRESSIVE COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...HAS SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS NORTHERN NJ...INTO
PORTIONS OF MASS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH/ME. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED TRACK AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINKING THAT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM A RUT-MPV-1V4 LINE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL...MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDING
ANALYSIS PLACES THE FREEZING LINE AT AROUND 2500 FEET
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET...AND POSSIBLY LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL LOWER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM 35-42F...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE
SEASON IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE. OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.
AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO SEE MOBILE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME INDICATION IN THE ECMWF/GFS THAT THE
SECOND TROUGH POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF VT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS THAT WE COULD SEE HIGHER
ELEVATION PRECIPITATION SWITCH TO SNOW FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ALSO...INCREASING NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING WE/LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. APART FROM THOSE TWO
SYSTEMS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID-UPR 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03-04Z TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING
AT A LIGHT RAIN AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 20-22Z...FOLLOWED BY
A SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NO IMPACT TO PAVED SURFACES BELOW
1000 FT...MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SLUSH ON THE RUNWAYS AT
SLK/MPV AFTER SUNSET. GENERALLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IFR AT MPV. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AFTER 04Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS...WITH WIND DIRECTION REMAINING FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15-25 KTS. WINDS
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING -SHRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
145 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL
MESONET AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND
2500 FEET AND SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS LOW AS AROUND 1200 FEET.
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...WITH
THE LOW LEVELS STILL DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE LARGER
VALLEYS SO FAR. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTWARD. FREEZING LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY
5PM WITH SNOW LEVELS DESCENDING TO ABOUT 800-1000 FEET OR SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES INITIAL VORT MOVING ALONG THE NJ
COASTLINE WITH PRIMARY CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOME ENERGY ALSO EVIDENT WITH UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE INITIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AT 1000MB WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE FALLS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK INTENSIFYING
TO AROUND 995MB. THE SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY LATE TODAY WITH AN ANTICIPATED SIMILAR TRACK JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
INITIAL WAVE IS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND IMPRESSIVE COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...HAS SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS NORTHERN NJ...INTO
PORTIONS OF MASS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH/ME. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED TRACK AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINKING THAT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM A RUT-MPV-1V4 LINE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL...MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDING
ANALYSIS PLACES THE FREEZING LINE AT AROUND 2500 FEET
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET...AND POSSIBLY LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL LOWER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM 35-42F...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE
SEASON IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE. OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.
AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS. AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...WARMING AT 850 MB (+6 TO +8C) WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY
AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
DESPITE COOLER 850 MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY DUE DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER FLOW TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING SYSTEM MAY BECOME CUTOFF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN RATHER HIGH INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ASSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03-04Z TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING
AT A LIGHT RAIN AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 20-22Z...FOLLOWED BY
A SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NO IMPACT TO PAVED SURFACES BELOW
1000 FT...MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SLUSH ON THE RUNWAYS AT
SLK/MPV AFTER SUNSET. GENERALLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IFR AT MPV. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AFTER 04Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS...WITH WIND DIRECTION REMAINING FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15-25 KTS. WINDS
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING -SHRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
104 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL
MESONET AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND
2500 FEET AND SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS LOW AS AROUND 1200 FEET.
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...WITH
THE LOW LEVELS STILL DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE LARGER
VALLEYS SO FAR. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTWARD. FREEZING LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY
5PM WITH SNOW LEVELS DESCENDING TO ABOUT 800-1000 FEET OR SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES INITIAL VORT MOVING ALONG THE NJ
COASTLINE WITH PRIMARY CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOME ENERGY ALSO EVIDENT WITH UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE INITIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AT 1000MB WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE FALLS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK INTENSIFYING
TO AROUND 995MB. THE SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY LATE TODAY WITH AN ANTICIPATED SIMILAR TRACK JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
INITIAL WAVE IS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND IMPRESSIVE COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...HAS SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS NORTHERN NJ...INTO
PORTIONS OF MASS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH/ME. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED TRACK AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINKING THAT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM A RUT-MPV-1V4 LINE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL...MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDING
ANALYSIS PLACES THE FREEZING LINE AT AROUND 2500 FEET
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET...AND POSSIBLY LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL LOWER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM 35-42F...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE
SEASON IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE. OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.
AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS. AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...WARMING AT 850 MB (+6 TO +8C) WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY
AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
DESPITE COOLER 850 MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY DUE DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER FLOW TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING SYSTEM MAY BECOME CUTOFF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN RATHER HIGH INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ASSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN
CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z. NO OBSTRUCTION TO
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 23Z WHEN VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
3-5SM WITH PSBL IFR AT MPV IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON: MVFR CIGS WITH LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.
00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR
12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWERING CEILINGS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH VOLTAGE ARCING AND
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER AND SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY. OWING TO THE
COMPLEX NATURE OF THE PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO
SERVICE WILL BE SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SET UP A COOL
AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN
SPOTS. COLDER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD
TAPER OFF. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 730 AM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS HAS SET UP A NNE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH NAM
BUFKIT SHOWING MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THIS PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS...WITH THE HRRR FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.
FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND A BLEND OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...EXPECT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY BY LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST...DRIER (BUT COLDER) AIR WILL BUILD
IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION LEAVING IT MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
UPSLOPE REGIONS.
MEANWHILE...SNOW IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...WITH COOLER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BOTH HAMILTON AND TORONTO REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. THE 12Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -3C...WITH ABOVE
FREEZING AIR CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 2K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP SNOW WILL START TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT EVEN THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL RAIN TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION TODAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LIGHT AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800FT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH RELATIVELY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CAUSE SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO
AROUND -6C BY 00Z SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE JUST MOIST ENOUGH TO FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL DRY OUT AND LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS REGARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL END
PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN JUST LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA PATTERN WILL START THIS PERIOD...WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH...PLAINS RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH.
SUNDAY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY REGION...WITH THE LAST OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FOUND WITHIN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. SUFFICIENT DRYING IN THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD START AREAS NEAR THE LAKES MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY...WHILE INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY START RATHER CLOUDY BEFORE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND ALSO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE...A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SIMILAR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WHICH WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE PLAINS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD AND
CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT MAY BE NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH LAKE
PARAMETERS POOR FOR LAKE EFFECT...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OF 4 TO 5C AT 850 HPA WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING MID WEST STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY BRING
A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATE THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TODAY...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E TONIGHT.
JHW...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A
MODEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT. SNOW MAY
CAUSE PERIODIC VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO 2SM.
ART...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY VFR CIGS JUST
ABOVE 3 K FT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SET UP A COOL
AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN
SPOTS. COLDER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD
TAPER OFF. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 400 AM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROF SAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS HAS SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MOST LIKELY A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND EXTENDING TO ROCHESTER AND ERIE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH THE HRRR VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND A BLEND OF MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST...DRIER (BUT COLDER) AIR WILL BUILD IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION LEAVING
IT MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE REGIONS.
MEANWHILE...SNOW IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...WITH COOLER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BOTH HAMILTON AND TORONTO REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP...EXPECT RAIN TO START MIXING WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT EVEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ARE LIKELY TO
SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO RAIN TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION TODAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800FT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING...WITH RELATIVELY STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CAUSE SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO
AROUND -6C BY 00Z SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE JUST MOIST ENOUGH TO FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL DRY OUT AND LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS REGARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL END
PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN JUST LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA PATTERN WILL START THIS PERIOD...WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH...PLAINS RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH.
SUNDAY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY REGION...WITH THE LAST OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FOUND WITHIN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. SUFFICIENT DRYING IN THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD START AREAS NEAR THE LAKES MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY...WHILE INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY START RATHER CLOUDY BEFORE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND ALSO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE...A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SIMILAR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WHICH WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE PLAINS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD AND
CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT MAY BE NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH LAKE
PARAMETERS POOR FOR LAKE EFFECT...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OF 4 TO 5C AT 850 HPA WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING MID WEST STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY BRING
A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH A 30 KT
NORTHERLY FLOW AT 925 AND LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TODAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. MEANWHILE CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 1K FT LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS
EVENING.
JHW...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN ONLY
A MODEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT.
ART...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AVERAGING AROUND 3K FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
202 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LOW BRIEFLY PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH A
WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN NORTH OF I-90 AND JUST VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD. CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE...THE HRRR SHIFTS WINDS FROM THE NE TO N WHICH WILL PUSH
STEADIER SHOWERS SOUTHWARD ACROSS JHW-BUF-IAG...AND EVENTUALLY ROC
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT THE REMAINS OF THE ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW TO
CONTINUE TO DECAY AS ITS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE SECONDARY COASTAL
SYSTEM. THIS STATED...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND A LINGERING CYCLONIC/INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. FURTHER TO THE EAST...
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN READINGS FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY VERY LIMITED RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WHEN ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -7C TO -8C WILL BE
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED. A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING...DWINDLING TO CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT LOWER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WARMING TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY...AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 06Z...THERE WAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WESTERN NY...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
BUF/IAG. LOOKING JUST TO WEST IN HAMILTON ONTARIO...THERE WAS IFR
CIGS WITH A 30KT 925MB FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AS 925MB WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER WEST OF ROC. HAVE RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT JHW WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THIS WIND SHIFT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BUF/IAG/ROC SHOULD
LOWER...BUT ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL IF THEY LOWER TO IFR.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING. ART
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR MVFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE PATCHY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW LATE SATURDAY AT JHW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. ON LAKE ONTARIO...THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE ON LAKE ERIE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ALL THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
THE WINDS AND THE FALLING TEMPS.
OVERVIEW: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
CHS... WOBBLING EASTWARD WITH MULTIPLE SLOTS OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE
PRIMARY LOW -- LOCATED OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE FRI -- NOW WELL OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE EXPECTED SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS TRACKING EASTWARD OVER FAR NE SC AND SE NC. THIN BROKEN
BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC... AS THE BULK OF THE INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT TRACKS JUST SOUTH/SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA... HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP
LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NW OF THE 850 MB LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
WINDS: FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME 20+ KT GUSTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. LAURINBURG HAS BEEN THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A GUST TO 32
KTS... BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS ELSEWHERE HAVE NOT EXCEEDED 30 KTS.
FOLLOWING THE HRRR MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT
WE`RE LIKELY STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM THE MAX MIXED LAYER DEPTH
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAGNITUDES SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS STILL JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA... BUT IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS BEING TOSSED AROUND AND SOME WEAK TREE BRANCHES KNOCKED
DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
PRECIP: BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SE AND ERN EDGE OF THE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS ON THE NRN AND WRN SIDES OF THE
STRENGTHENING BUT DEPARTING LOW. MUCH OF THE NRN AND NW CWA HOWEVER
ARE SEEING TOO MUCH DRYING ALOFT (700 MB AND ABOVE) AND NEAR THE
SURFACE (BELOW 900 MB) TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIP. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR SE/E BUT
BUMPED THEM DOWN TO 20-40% ACROSS THE NORTH AND NW. EXPECT DRYING
EVERYWHERE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TRACK ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST... FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
WILL HAVE NO PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS: LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN CHALLENGING... AS THE INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE STEADY NW BREEZE AND
PERSISTENT MIXING OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST
BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SLIP TO 30-32F LATE TONIGHT... BUT THESE NEAR-
AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO... GIVEN
THE STEADY MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR TO STAY
BLOCKED UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL NOT GO WITH
A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME... BUT STAY TUNED
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING IN THE EVENT THAT THE TEMPS THIS EVENING
DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED. LOW 31 WEST TO 38 EAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT THE BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER WRN NY/PA
AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD... BRUSHING
ACROSS NE NC SUN MORNING. AFTER PREDAWN WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT... WILL DEPICT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMING BACK INTO THE NE
CWA SUN MORNING... SHIFTING EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY SUNNY OVER CENTRAL NC WITH
DRY SUBSIDING MID LEVELS AND RISING HEIGHTS. THE AFTERNOON MIXED
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT DRY ADIABATIC... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CHILLY THICKNESSES STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1300 M INDICATES HIGHS OF
JUST 51-55. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR BRISK SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING OF AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THEN ON SUN
NIGHT... THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE CORE
SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE NRN AND NW CWA... GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
INVERSION ALOFT UP THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE AS WELL AS AN AREA OF
INCOMING MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB FROM THE WNW. THIS MOISTURE APPEAR
SHALLOW HOWEVER... SO ANY SUCH CIRRUS MAY BE TOO THIN TO HAMPER THE
DROP IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE... SEE NO REASON WHY THE ENTIRE CWA WON`T SEE
TEMPS AT OR WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL POST A
FREEZE WATCH FOR 06Z-13Z SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE GROWING
SEASON OVER CENTRAL NC. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL HELP TO STEER A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ABANDONED BY ITS PARENT LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC...BUT
LATER BE PICKED UP BY A WEAKER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT THE ORGANIZATION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT AND
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TIMING DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIPITATION SOME TIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORING A
BIT LATER TIMING MAY HELP TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY AND WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY...LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
THE WINDS AND THE FALLING TEMPS.
OVERVIEW: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
CHS... WOBBLING EASTWARD WITH MULTIPLE SLOTS OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE
PRIMARY LOW -- LOCATED OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE FRI -- NOW WELL OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE EXPECTED SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS TRACKING EASTWARD OVER FAR NE SC AND SE NC. THIN BROKEN
BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC... AS THE BULK OF THE INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT TRACKS JUST SOUTH/SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA... HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP
LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NW OF THE 850 MB LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
WINDS: FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME 20+ KT GUSTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. LAURINBURG HAS BEEN THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A GUST TO 32
KTS... BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS ELSEWHERE HAVE NOT EXCEEDED 30 KTS.
FOLLOWING THE HRRR MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT
WE`RE LIKELY STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM THE MAX MIXED LAYER DEPTH
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAGNITUDES SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS STILL JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA... BUT IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS BEING TOSSED AROUND AND SOME WEAK TREE BRANCHES KNOCKED
DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
PRECIP: BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SE AND ERN EDGE OF THE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS ON THE NRN AND WRN SIDES OF THE
STRENGTHENING BUT DEPARTING LOW. MUCH OF THE NRN AND NW CWA HOWEVER
ARE SEEING TOO MUCH DRYING ALOFT (700 MB AND ABOVE) AND NEAR THE
SURFACE (BELOW 900 MB) TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIP. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR SE/E BUT
BUMPED THEM DOWN TO 20-40% ACROSS THE NORTH AND NW. EXPECT DRYING
EVERYWHERE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TRACK ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST... FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
WILL HAVE NO PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS: LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN CHALLENGING... AS THE INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE STEADY NW BREEZE AND
PERSISTENT MIXING OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST
BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SLIP TO 30-32F LATE TONIGHT... BUT THESE NEAR-
AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO... GIVEN
THE STEADY MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR TO STAY
BLOCKED UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL NOT GO WITH
A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME... BUT STAY TUNED
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING IN THE EVENT THAT THE TEMPS THIS EVENING
DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED. LOW 31 WEST TO 38 EAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL HELP TO STEER A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ABANDONED BY ITS PARENT LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC...BUT
LATER BE PICKED UP BY A WEAKER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT THE ORGANIZATION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT AND
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TIMING DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIPITATION SOME TIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORING A
BIT LATER TIMING MAY HELP TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY AND WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY...LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
229 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY: MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE RISK OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SE CWA... THE IMMINENT INCREASE IN
WINDS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LESSER COVERAGE
OVER NE NC... FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT... AND HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PIEDMONT. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED UP THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 6 C/KM... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM... AND MAXIMIZED DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED TO A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR... SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
REPORT OR TWO OF GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES APPROACH 0.8 IN. STILL
EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TO SHIFT INTO SRN AND SE SECTIONS AS THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF FLO SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... ALLOWING BANDED PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
SE CWA. LOWEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRIEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A THIRD TO
HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL ANTICIPATE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST... WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOWING 35-45 KT WINDS AT 2000-4000 FT
AGL TO TRANSLATE DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY... AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO FORWARD WITH ONE RIGHT NOW... BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 AM:
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
-DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL HELP TO STEER A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ABANDONED BY ITS PARENT LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC...BUT
LATER BE PICKED UP BY A WEAKER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT THE ORGANIZATION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT AND
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TIMING DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIPITATION SOME TIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORING A
BIT LATER TIMING MAY HELP TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY AND WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY...LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY: MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE RISK OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SE CWA... THE IMMINENT INCREASE IN
WINDS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LESSER COVERAGE
OVER NE NC... FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT... AND HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PIEDMONT. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED UP THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 6 C/KM... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM... AND MAXIMIZED DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED TO A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR... SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
REPORT OR TWO OF GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES APPROACH 0.8 IN. STILL
EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TO SHIFT INTO SRN AND SE SECTIONS AS THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF FLO SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... ALLOWING BANDED PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
SE CWA. LOWEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRIEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A THIRD TO
HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL ANTICIPATE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST... WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOWING 35-45 KT WINDS AT 2000-4000 FT
AGL TO TRANSLATE DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY... AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO FORWARD WITH ONE RIGHT NOW... BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 AM:
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
-DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
940 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY: MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE RISK OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SE CWA... THE IMMINENT INCREASE IN
WINDS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LESSER COVERAGE
OVER NE NC... FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT... AND HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PIEDMONT. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED UP THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 6 C/KM... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM... AND MAXIMIZED DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED TO A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR... SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
REPORT OR TWO OF GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES APPROACH 0.8 IN. STILL
EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TO SHIFT INTO SRN AND SE SECTIONS AS THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF FLO SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... ALLOWING BANDED PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
SE CWA. LOWEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRIEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A THIRD TO
HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL ANTICIPATE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST... WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOWING 35-45 KT WINDS AT 2000-4000 FT
AGL TO TRANSLATE DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY... AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO FORWARD WITH ONE RIGHT NOW... BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 AM:
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
-DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...AREAS OF RAIN AND WITH THEM
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOWER CEILINGS OR BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES AS THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. TAFS
WILL REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART OR CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...WITH THE LATER AVIATION HAZARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEING THE WIND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND BY LATE TODAY EXPECT A FEW GUSTS IN VICINITY OF 30KT. NOT FAR
OFF OF THE SURFACE...THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BY 2000FT
CLOSING IN ON 50KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS SOME AT LEAST 10KT GREATER
THAN THE NAM. REGARDLESS...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT AND OFF OF THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST...AND CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BY...OR NOT LONG AFTER...06Z EVEN TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND GUSTINESS IN THE WIND SHOULD
GRADUALLY RELAX AS WELL ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...AND
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF ANY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
652 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...AREAS OF RAIN AND WITH THEM
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOWER CEILINGS OR BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES AS THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. TAFS
WILL REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART OR CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...WITH THE LATER AVIATION HAZARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEING THE WIND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND BY LATE TODAY EXPECT A FEW GUSTS IN VICINITY OF 30KT. NOT FAR
OFF OF THE SURFACE...THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BY 2000FT
CLOSING IN ON 50KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS SOME AT LEAST 10KT GREATER
THAN THE NAM. REGARDLESS...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT AND OFF OF THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST...AND CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BY...OR NOT LONG AFTER...06Z EVEN TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND GUSTINESS IN THE WIND SHOULD
GRADUALLY RELAX AS WELL ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...AND
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF ANY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...AREAS OF RAIN AND WITH THEM
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOWER CEILINGS OR BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF RAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TAFS
WILL REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART OR CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...WITH THE LATER AVIATION HAZARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEING THE WIND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND BY LATE TODAY EXPECT A FEW GUSTS IN VICINITY OF 30KT. NOT FAR
OFF OF THE SURFACE...THE GFS MODEL MORE SO THAN THE NAM FORECASTS
WINDS BY 2000FT CLOSING IN ON 50KT. REGARDLESS...AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT AND OFF OF THE SURFACE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND GUSTINESS IN THE WIND SHOULD
GRADUALLY RELAX AS WELL ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...AND
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF ANY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
07Z/09Z SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM TIME-SECTION
DIFFER FROM THE GFS SOLUTION AND DELAY THE FORMATION OF LOW
CLOUDS/STRATO CU FIELD OVER AUS TO 15Z SUNDAY VS 09Z/10Z OF THE
GFS. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SITES...THE NAM AND GFS CONCUR ON
LOW MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 10Z SUNDAY (A LITTLE EARLIER ACROSS
KDRT 09Z...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE). AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILAR TIMING FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AND THE WRF SIMULATED GOES-R MAINTAINS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A KT82 TO KSAT TO KBEA LINE.
WILL PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND BRING A
TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR ACROSS KAUS JUST AN HOUR EARLIER (13Z TO
16Z). VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY NOON SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS KDRT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WE HAVE INCREASED DEW POINTS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS MOIST
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT READINGS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. NELY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO SELY WITH 5 TO 10 KTS MOST AREAS LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU INCLUDING KDRT. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS IN STRATUS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A KVCT TO KHYI TO KAQO LINE
DURING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER EAST...WILL GO WITH ONLY A
TEMPO MID MORNING AT KAUS. BY LATE MORNING...CIGS RISE TO LOW END
VFR ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CAUSE DRY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS WE FALL BACK AN HOUR
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
SUNDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL DUE TO BOTH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM VANCE AND THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM.
IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OF ALL OF THE MID-RANGE FORECAST MODELS THE
GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GFS PW VALUES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH A TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FINALLY EJECTING OUT OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANOTHER MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL...THE DGEX SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS. IT HAS THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WHILE KEEP
THE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY.
WITH SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS HAVE GONE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW BLENDING THE MODELS TOGETHER...BUT
LEANING HEAVIER ON THE GFS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT THIS POINT
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
VANCE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH ARE NOT TIMED
TOGETHER...OR WE GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE LOW...BOTH DECREASING
THE CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. DESPITE THIS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT...THE TROUGH...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TREADWAY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 72 61 77 65 / - - 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 42 73 58 77 63 / - - 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 74 61 79 65 / - - 10 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 69 61 74 64 / - - 10 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 74 64 79 67 / - 10 10 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 70 59 76 64 / 0 - 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 72 61 77 64 / - 10 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 45 74 60 78 64 / - - 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 43 74 61 79 65 / - 10 10 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 52 74 65 79 68 / - - 10 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 76 64 80 66 / - - 10 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WE HAVE INCREASED DEW POINTS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS MOIST
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT READINGS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. NELY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO SELY WITH 5 TO 10 KTS MOST AREAS LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU INCLUDING KDRT. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS IN STRATUS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A KVCT TO KHYI TO KAQO LINE
DURING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER EAST...WILL GO WITH ONLY A
TEMPO MID MORNING AT KAUS. BY LATE MORNING...CIGS RISE TO LOW END
VFR ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CAUSE DRY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS WE FALL BACK AN HOUR
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
SUNDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL DUE TO BOTH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM VANCE AND THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM.
IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OF ALL OF THE MID-RANGE FORECAST MODELS THE
GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GFS PW VALUES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH A TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FINALLY EJECTING OUT OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANOTHER MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL...THE DGEX SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS. IT HAS THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WHILE KEEP
THE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY.
WITH SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS HAVE GONE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW BLENDING THE MODELS TOGETHER...BUT
LEANING HEAVIER ON THE GFS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT THIS POINT
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
VANCE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH ARE NOT TIMED
TOGETHER...OR WE GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE LOW...BOTH DECREASING
THE CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. DESPITE THIS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT...THE TROUGH...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TREADWAY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 47 72 61 77 / 0 0 - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 42 73 58 77 / 0 0 - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 47 74 61 79 / 0 0 - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 47 69 61 74 / 0 0 - 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 57 74 64 79 / 0 - 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 44 70 59 76 / 0 0 - 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 47 72 61 77 / 0 - 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 45 74 60 78 / 0 0 - 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 43 74 61 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 52 74 65 79 / 0 0 - 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 76 64 80 / 0 0 - 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS INLAND HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT GLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
UPDATE...
INLAND NORTH BREEZE DYING DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ALL
HALLOW`S EVE...MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 20...GUST TO 25...KTS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK WIND FIELD
WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE THE DROP OF TEMPERATURE WITHIN THIS DRY AIR
MASS. AVERAGE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40 DEW POINTS...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...
EQUATES TO MANY INLAND SATURDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 45F (MID 50S AT COAST). NOVEMBER BEGINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT EASTERLIES...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WARMING UP INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. AFTER A VERY CHILLED SUNDAY MORNING...THE WEEKEND WILL
END WITH MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS BREEZES
VEER ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGHING
WITH SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY. HEIGHTENED MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PHASE WITH THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF A MID
WEEK WESTERN UPPER LOW (ECMWF) OR SOUTHERN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH
(GFS) SCENARIO...BUT BOTH DO AGREE THAT A TROUGH AXIS WILL HANG BACK
TO THE WEST LONG ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM SECTOR/25H RR QUAD
OVER SE TX THAT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD END WITH SUNDOWN AND WIND
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 65 40 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 45 67 41 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 54 65 54 70 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS HAVE NOT EASED AS MUCH AS FIRST THOUGHT...WITH THE MIXING
HOLDING TEMPS UP AND DEW POINTS DOWN. THICK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION CLOUD DECK STILL MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EAST ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP. STILL EXPECT LOWS TO FALL TO CURRENT
FORECAST LEVELS AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP AFTER 08Z.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MID-LEVEL DECK WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE STATE BY 04Z. VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY BROKEN
CIRRUS. IN SPITE OF SURFACE WINDS STAYING UP A BIT HIGHER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING THE 40+ KT SSW WINDS
AROUND 1500-2000 FT OVER REGION SO WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN ALL TAFS UNTIL DAYTIME MIX OUT MID-MORNING MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS RETURN. LATEST NAM KEEPING TREND OF HOLDING OFF PCPN
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH AT KMSN UNTIL BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z TUESDAY...AND AT EASTERN TAF SITES UNTIL BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE FUEL-
ALTERNATE CIGS WITH THE FRONT...WITH GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING AT
LEAST MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES...THOUGH GUSTS AT MOST SHORELINE
OB SITES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. CRITERIA WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE
SURFACE..REFLECTED BY THE 29 KNOT GUSTS RECORDED ON THE HIGHER
ANEMOMETER AT SHEBOYGAN C-MAN...AND SHOULD BE AT LEAST AT SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS WITH THE BETTER MIXING OVER THE WATER PER MID-LAKE
BUOY WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN NOV 2 2014/
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THERE.
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE EVENING. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AS WELL. THE CLOUDS AND WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
IT WILL BE WARMER ON MONDAY AS 925MB TEMPS CREEP UP TO AROUND
9C...DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY
THE PRECIP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL AFTER 00Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z ECMWF. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI MONDAY NIGHT AS
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ENHANCE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH WI LATER MON
NGT AND EARLY TUE. DESPITE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERE...DEWPTS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
MON NGT...COLUMN PWAT VALUES WILL HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.2
INCHES WHICH REACHES THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR EARLY NOV AT KGRB. WL REMAIN T FREE DESPITE WARMER TEMPS DUE TO
LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE STILL PASSING THRU ERN WI TUE MRNG SO WL HANG
ON TO LOWER POPS AS -SHRA DIMINISH AND ADVANCE TO THE EAST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAPIDLY RETURNS ON WED AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SHORT
WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10MB WITH 20 TO 30KTS OF
UPGLIDE AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC OMEGA. WILL BEEF UP POPS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA LATER WED. THERMAL PROFILE STILL FAVORS
LIQUID PRECIP ON WED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.
HI RES GFS RUN FROM 12Z/SAT WAS THE OUTLIER BUT MORE PRESCIENT IN
ITS FARTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC LOW THROUGH
THE WRN GTLAKES WED NGT INTO THU. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
NOW SHOWING THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...HOWEVER STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING OF AMPLIFICATION AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE BOTTLED UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER EXPECT THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SLIDE IN WITH PWATS IN THE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH RANGE...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE PRECIP WITH
STRONGER FORCING. APPEARS THIS SHORT WAVE WILL UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION AND CYCLOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
RESULTING IN LARGE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE ERN GTLAKES/CONUS THU
NGT/FRI.
00Z ECMWF AND HI RES GFS SHOWING FIRST WINTER WX EVENT FOR SRN WI
WITH RAIN LIKELY CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING WET SNOW WED NGT INTO
EARLY THU WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIAL BLUSTERY WINDS.
HOWEVER ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING MUCH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH TRACK AND AMOUNT OF QPF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAY RESULT IN FIRST WINTER
HEADLINE FOR SRN WI. AT LEAST ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO
SOME AGREEMENT ON STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF SRN WI WED NGT AND EARLY THU.
FOR NOW WL BEEF UP POPS FOR WED NGT INTO THU AND ADD MORE SNOW
MENTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
ALSO PENDING TRACK OF LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ERN CONUS...LOW
LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW KEEP CONDITIONS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
IA/IL/MO AREA FRI NGT AND SAT. SRN WI WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RECEIVE
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRISK SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT. I ADDED LLWS TO THE MKE TAF
AS WELL.
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR RAIN WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL BE
HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS AND ALSO NEAR THE SHEBOYGAN NEARSHORE
ZONE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS IS GENERATING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ARE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LOWER DECK DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN AS LOWER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO SIGN OF THIS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM AND 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL RATHER LARGE BASED
ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS. WILL BRING IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL
ANOTHER PUSH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVES LATE. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND. LOWS RANGING THROUGH
THE 30S.
MONDAY...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THOUGH
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT SUPER DRY
THOUGH...AND ANY SHOWERS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP TO
THE GROUND. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS TIME AND
WILL HAVE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE DRY AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF
PRECIP FOR THE MORNING BUT CHANCES WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE
MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
SATURATION AND BEING POSITIONED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET.
WARMER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE
NORTH WHILE THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IS TO
THE SOUTH. EXPECT A LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
LACK OF MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE THE MODELS. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AND PRODUCES THE MOST PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO HAS THE
MOST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SOMEWHERE IN WISCONSIN.
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WESTERN
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN FORCING WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. COULD BE SCT MVFR CIGS AFTER 21Z
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS SITES AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO
THAT AREA AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE BUT HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. NEXT AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN
A THICK AREA OF CIRRUS EXISTS JUST TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION.
BAND OF MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
EVENING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE. OVERALL...WILL CALL IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY...MORE SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT DUE TO RELATIVELY MIXY BL WINDS AND
SNOW PACK OVER N-C WISCONSIN. DROPPED TEMPS OVER VILAS COUNTY WHERE
THE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 OVER VILAS TO
LOWER 30S LAKE SIDE.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS...BUT
WILL HAVE FILTERED SUN THROUGH MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT LEAST INTO MID-WEEK WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH.
FIRST SYSTEM THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SE HALF OF AREA ALONG
COLD FRONT.
AFTER BRIEF BREAK...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF EVENT...BUT COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
SYSTEM THURSDAY.
850 MB TEMPS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT BOTH SHOW
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF.
TEMP FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS TO
EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN SHOULD
SEE THE LAKE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH WHICH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
THEREAFTER...JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING. SEEMS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT AT THE RHI TAF...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LLWS AT OR AROUND 2KFT AGL WITH SPEEDS NEARING 45-50KT. ANOTHER
ROUND DURING THE EVENING POSSIBLE.
* WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AFT DAYBREAK...INCREASING
WITH SPEEDS ARND 15KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 22-26KT THRU THE AFTERNOON.
* SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING
BELOW 5 KFT AND POSSIBLY TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST BEING REPLACED BY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS ARE HOLDING JUST WEST OF SOUTH WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 12-14 KT RANGE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-22
KT. AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE
OF 35-45 KT WINDS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WINDS STILL FORECAST TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE
TONIGHT AND GUSTS WILL NOT ALWAYS BE SURFACING.
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR TODAY AS THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-26
KT OR SO THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK
UP. IF THESE SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS
TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO
5K FT OR LESS DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW WINDS.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS TIMING/STRENGTH.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWER PROBABILITIES AT THE TERMINALS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING. VFR
CONDS DEVELOPING. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDS AND MAINLY DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While airmass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface dewpoints only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Immediate concern for the first part of the TAF period is the low
level wind shear as strong near surface winds around 1000 to
1500ft are around 45 kts out of the south southwest. Soundings
indicate the strong near surface winds will continue until around
15Z for PIA and SPI...16Z for BMI and DEC...and 17Z for CMI.
Breezy south southwest surface winds will continue tonight into
tomorrow as a tight pressure gradient remains in place with the
approaching low pressure system currently over the Central Plains.
Surface winds will gust between 20 to 25 kts by late morning and
continue through the afternoon. A slow moving cold front will
approach the terminals towards the end of the TAF
period...resulting in lowering ceilings for all of the TAF sites
and the chance for light rain over PIA and vicinity showers for
SPI and BMI. Went ahead and kept VFR ceilings for all sites since
soundings and guidance indicated as such.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT
ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER
NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING
TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER
LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS
EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED
ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB
LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING
THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 34 58 36 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 65 32 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 64 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 69 33 59 34 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 67 34 59 36 / 20 20 0 0
P28 67 41 59 36 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING, MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT DEVELOPING AS AN INTENSIFYING +130KT JET LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING
CYCLING SHORTWAVES TO HELP USHER A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY AS A
RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5C. ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIALLY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN COME
ABOUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER EVEN COLDER AIR DOWN INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS
EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED
ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB
LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING
THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 34 58 36 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 65 32 58 34 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 64 33 57 35 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 69 33 58 34 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 67 34 58 37 / 20 20 0 0
P28 67 41 59 37 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING ZONES AND GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR RECEIVING SOME STRONGER
RETURNS WITH A REPORT OF SPRINKLES OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.
THE HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES SOME RETURNS OVER THE FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST THAN YESTERDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT PLUS THERE IS A RATHER
STRONG LEE/PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THIS
DOES MAKE SENSE.
STEADY AND GUSTY WINDS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THICKER
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RATHER
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. RAISED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS A RESULT.
VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT LOOKS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY NOON OR SO.
THEN NOT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO
HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER PLUS SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING. COOLEST MAXES LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF.
CONSIDERED HAVING FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IF
FRONT SLOWS DOWN EVEN MORE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...THEN THAT
TEMPERATURE TREND WILL NOT HAPPEN.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AS A
RESULT OF LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACTING ON LOW THETA-E LAPSE RATES. PROBLEM IS THAT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BELIEVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH VERY FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND ACCOMPANYING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT. HOWEVER...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES DID INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE WHAT CAPE THERE IS WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEARLY DONE BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS MONDAY NIGHT LEADS
TO A SUNNY SKY TUESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
WHERE BETTER 850-500MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST. RIGHT NOW DONT THINK
ENOUGH FORCING AND LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. 100+ KT 250 JET NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY PUSHING THIS DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. GENERALLY CLEAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TO MID 30S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. ON WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO...LOW
TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY THEN CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA. UPPER HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA WITH RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 3C EAST TO 11C WEST
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
30-35...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS. BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS ABOUT 3F COLDER THEN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECTING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE
AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM AT BEST
RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...HOPEFULLY DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT ON LATER
SHIFTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 7C FROM THURSDAYS FORECAST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO 70F. NUDGED READINGS UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM EXTENDED PROCEDURE AS A RESULT. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRIDAYS WEATHER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING LEAVING A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS COME DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BY DARK. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10F COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS A BIT FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. 850-500MB LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...MAYBE A BIT MORE IF THE GFS 850MB TEMPS
VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME STRATUS (MVFR) FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES. CLEARING OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS
DECREASE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
AT 00Z MONDAY A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A -23C COOL POOL LOCATED OVER UTAH. A +90
KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM THE BASED OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
APPEARING TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AT THE
700MB LEVEL A SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
850MB WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS WERE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS AND +7 TO +10C DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TWEAKED POPS AND WX GRIDS BASED OFF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR
AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON A WEAKENING
TREND AS DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY DECREASES. BOTH MENTIONED
MODELS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULDN`T PROGRESS THAT MUCH MORE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THEN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
EAST OF HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL ON MONDAY AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT. FORECAST CAPE FIELDS HAVE MINIMAL CAPE AROUND 500
J/KG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD
HAVE SOME MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS STAYING IN THE
15 TO 22 MPH, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND AROUND 50 DEGREES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AFTER 7 PM FAR WEST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THEN TOWARDS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND RUN
FROM NEAR HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND ELKHART BY 7 PM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR LIKELY FROM SAINT JOHN TO COLDWATER AND EAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SKIES CLEARING. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING, MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT DEVELOPING AS AN INTENSIFYING +130KT JET LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING
CYCLING SHORTWAVES TO HELP USHER A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY AS A
RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5C. ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIALLY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN COME
ABOUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER EVEN COLDER AIR DOWN INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS
EVENING WAS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. BASED
ON THE RAP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WAS MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE AT 04Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 00Z MONDAY. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO GIVEN THIS WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB
LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING
THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER INTO 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY. BY LATE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 68 36 58 / 20 30 30 0
GCK 50 66 33 58 / 50 20 10 0
EHA 50 65 35 57 / 50 10 10 0
LBL 51 69 36 58 / 40 20 10 0
HYS 52 66 35 58 / 10 30 20 0
P28 53 67 40 59 / 10 60 70 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
101 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MADE THE
DECISION TO GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE SOME VALLEYS WERE LOWERED 4 TO 5
DEGREES DEPENDING ON THEIR CURRENT TEMP...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CWA WERE LOWERED AN AVERAGE OF TWO DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CURRENT
LOWS. AFTER RERUNNING THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT...ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TEMP LOWERING TRENDS WERE STILL WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL END UP
BOTTOMING OUT LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED
IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEED TO BE MADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEW POINTS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP FROM VERY CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE OF 50 DEGREE READINGS NOTED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL HAVE A MODERATE RIDGE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AS ANY ENERGY AT THE MID LEVELS STAY
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING AS
COLD OR A TOUCH COLDER MONDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM CONCLUDED
FOR THIS YEAR EARLIER TODAY. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS
THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AGAIN GOOD CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND A MILDER
STARTING POINT FOR THE NIGHTLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. ALSO USED THE MAX AND MIN GRIDS FROM THIS BLENDED MODEL
AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME MAJOR ELEVATIONALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS
EACH NIGHT OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SETUP FOR FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OUT OF
THE UPPER PLAINS. AS WELL AT THIS TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG A
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM TRACKS EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE FIRST WAVES TRACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS TRY TO FORM A COASTAL LOW WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTH SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW BOTH
MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WAVE TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UP
AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS THE SUPER
BLEND MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON POPS TO START THE EVENT ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AGAIN FOR WED AND THU.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVING STRONGER WAVE AFTERWARD PUTS NEEDED
FORCING IN QUESTION. THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE NEXT
STRONGER WAVE DIVES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS TRACKS A DEVELOPED
SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHEREAS THE EURO IS MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH A COASTAL LOW RACKING NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY FOR POPS...DID STICK WITH THE
SUPER BLEND MODEL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT AVERAGE
OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE CIGS AROUND 11K AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS TO
GENERAL AVIATORS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO
START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS.
STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR
30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO
-3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS
OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E.
ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA
AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE
TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN
BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE
TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A
LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE
6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION
OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN
THE HWO.
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC
LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS
BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
EVENING AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WAA
AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE INFLOW INCREASES THIS EVENING...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
CLOUDY AND MILD THE REST OF THE NIGHT. REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE
SHORT-TERM. RADAR RETURNS ARE ALL FROM MID-LVLS CIGS. SO "IF"
ANYTHING IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IT`S SPRINKLES. REFLECTIVITY
HAS ALSO BEEN DIMINISHING AS RETURNS MOVE INTO DRY AIR. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT MAY BACK DOWN FCST WORDING FROM SHWRS
TO SPRINKLES BEFORE SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 7
DEGREES. SOUTH BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL
AS SOME FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS TO HELP TEMPERATURES STAY UP. WENT
CLOSER TO HRRR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
QUIET...BUT BREEZY...CONDITIONS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE...WITH THE MAIN AXIS SLIDING FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW. A
TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST/GULF REGIONS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN THOSE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. NO NOTABLE SURPRISES
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOOKING TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAIN STORY LIES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTED A
LOT GOING ON THIS EVENING...BUT ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A HEFTY LLJ DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 50+ KTS POSSIBLE. INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS JET WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...KEPT POPS LOW AS MODELS ARENT IN
THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF PLACEMENT...AND DID INCREASE
THEIR COVERAGE TO THE W/NWRN CWA WHERE MODELS SHOWING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AS WE GET INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...THE LLJ TAPERS OFF...WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TAKING OVER THE MAIN DRIVER OF LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN POPS ESP DURING THE MORNING IS NOT THE
GREATEST...AS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE...BUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE MAIN
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH BY MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY
LOCATED IN A NE TO SW ORIENTATION RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA...THEN CONTINUING ITS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS IN THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT...BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE. DECIDED
TO HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. AGAIN CONFIDENCE ISNT THE
HIGHEST...AND NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS BECAUSE
INSTABILITY...BUT MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF PERHAPS A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...SO COULD GET A FEW SCATTERED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER/LIGHTNING STRIKES.
DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE FOR TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AND HAVE A BLEND OF MODELS/GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID 60S IN
THE SE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AS
THE RESPONSIBLE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THEN LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...FOCUSING SUBSEQUENT
DISTURBANCES TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY MILD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...COULD SEE SOME COOLER AIR WORK
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS COOLER AIR IS FORCED SOUTH WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO OUR EAST. HENCE...WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...TEMPERATURES
ARE A BIT IN QUESTION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN COOLER AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THAT SAID...WHILE TEMPERATURES
MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE GENERALLY MILD FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. OTHER THAN THE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DESCENDING TO AROUND 10K FT. A COUPLE SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. LLWS IS
IN PROGRESS AND WILL CONT THRU 08Z. S WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
MON: VFR MID-LVL CIGS TO START...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO INVADE. NOT ALL GUIDANCE HAS IT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
DRY IN THE LOW-LVLS. THE CLOSEST MVFR CIGS ARE OVER W TX. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS EAR/GRI IN
THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME WITH A WSHFT TO NW. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST UP TO 24 KTS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHWRS INCREASES AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: LOW
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MVFR CIGS AND TIMING OF SHWRS.
MON EVE: ANY SHWRS EXIT 02Z-03Z WITH RETURN TO VFR. NW WINDS
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO IFR RANGES BEFORE
SUNRISE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND BEFORE 031200 IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER
MONDAY...MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/
UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT MAY BE AFTER 12Z BEFORE SHOWERS FINALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH RAP AND HRRR DO HINT AT SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IN THE 5Z-10Z TIME FRAME. EITHER WAY... SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/
AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO IFR RANGES BEFORE
SUNRISE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND BEFORE 031800 IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY...MOVING
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO NWRN
PARTS OF THE FA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 69 51 60 / 10 50 90 50
HOBART OK 53 69 49 60 / 10 60 80 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 72 56 61 / 10 40 80 70
GAGE OK 52 70 40 60 / 20 60 70 10
PONCA CITY OK 51 68 48 59 / 10 60 90 20
DURANT OK 48 72 59 64 / 0 20 70 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1053 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
AVIATION...
Tricky situation next 24 hours, as the upper-lvl trough approaches
West Texas/SE NM. VFR conditions remain all terminals, and latest
NAM buffer soundings persist in developing LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys
everywhere but KFST overnight, beginning around issuance time at KHOB.
The latest HRRR suggests these conditions will be possible
KHOB/KMAF, but otherwise keep lwr cigs/vsbys east of the area.
However, current KMAF VWP shows the LLJ already up to 35kt, and
forecast to peak at 50+kts overnight. This, combined w/abundant
high cloud to retard radiational cooling, suggests cigs/vsbys will
be somewhat better than what buffer soundings suggest. Current
TAFs keep MVFR or better for the next 24 hours, and we`ll keep
them there or above attm. Conditions should improve to VFR all
terminals by around 18Z Monday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
The main focus this forecast period continues to be a deep trough
currently over the western CONUS which will move through our region
over the next couple of days, and associated precipitation chances.
Models continue to be in good agreement regarding the progressive
nature of the aforementioned trough, which will develop an
increasingly positive tilt as it moves toward the central CONUS.
Persistent, deep southwesterly flow will allow for continued
moisture transport ahead of the system, ultimately resulting in
precipitable water values of roughly 1.00" to 1.20" across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico per model soundings. While
precipitation chances tonight are highest over higher terrain,
Monday through Tuesday will see the chance for precipitation
overspread the rest of the area. Model soundings for Monday
afternoon indicate the presence of weak elevated CAPE, and given
ample ascent under the right entrance region of an upper level jet
rounding the base of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. While the
current threat of severe weather is marginal, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with storms that develop, and localized flash
flooding may be a concern, especially if training occurs.
The Monday night through Tuesday time frame still looks to be the
best window of opportunity for widespread measurable rainfall from
this system as the dynamics of the advancing trough combine with a
cold front that is progged to move south through the area.
Precipitation will then be shunted further to the south and east as
drier air filters in behind the front, with dry conditions expected
from Wednesday evening onward. Temperatures Tuesday will drop well
below normal due to the aforementioned front, resulting in very
little diurnal recovery as highs will top out in the middle 50s to
low 60s. Surface high pressure will sink southward through the
plains and into North Texas by Thursday into Friday, resulting in
winds veering to the south as temperatures slowly moderate back
toward normal. Both the GFS and ECMWF currently indicate another
shortwave dropping south on the back side of the trough, which could
drag another cold front through the area on Saturday, though a lack
of available moisture would preclude any mention of precipitation.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland
Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1144 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS IS GENERATING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ARE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LOWER DECK DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN AS LOWER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO SIGN OF THIS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM AND 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL RATHER LARGE BASED
ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS. WILL BRING IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL
ANOTHER PUSH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVES LATE. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND. LOWS RANGING THROUGH
THE 30S.
MONDAY...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THOUGH
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT SUPER DRY
THOUGH...AND ANY SHOWERS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP TO
THE GROUND. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS TIME AND
WILL HAVE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE DRY AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF
PRECIP FOR THE MORNING BUT CHANCES WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE
MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
SATURATION AND BEING POSITIONED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET.
WARMER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE
NORTH WHILE THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IS TO
THE SOUTH. EXPECT A LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
LACK OF MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE THE MODELS. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AND PRODUCES THE MOST PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO HAS THE
MOST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SOMEWHERE IN WISCONSIN.
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS MAIN FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
00Z TUESDAY. COULD BE SCT MVFR CIGS AFTER 21Z OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TAFS SITES AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
$$
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
1033 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY HAS INCREASED
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEW NAM/GFS HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW UP TO CASPER
MOUNTAIN AND EVEN INTO CASPER TOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE HRRR EARLIER WAS BULLISH THERE TOO...BUT 04Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON PCPN. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HRRR LOOKS LATER ON.
HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY AND FAR EAST
SWEETWATER COUNTY THROUGH 12Z AND WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT ADJUST AS
NEEDED.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT)
A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER A MAINLY DRY NIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN
THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL.
ALL THE MODELS NOW ONLY HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SO
WE TRIMMED ALL POPS BACK TO ISOLATED BEFORE 18Z. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST UPSLOPE AND SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A 110 KNOT JET STREAK MOVES IN.
THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM BUT
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS FOR EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
LITTLE WILL MAKE EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE GUSTY BREEZE WITH THE TIGHTENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT NOTHING
UNUSUAL FOR NOVEMBER IN WYOMING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE.
LIGHTER SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHUT OFF ANY
INSTABILITY. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR THAT PERIOD AS WELL. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO ALL AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN MOVES TOWARDS WYOMING FOR FRIDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND QPF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. ANOTHER
TRANSITORY RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER...MORE
POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM MAY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING DIFFERENCES SINCE THIS IS
A WEEK OUT. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/
WEST OF THE DIVIDE KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 16Z OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE THE
TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. A GUSTY
WIND WILL OCCUR AT KRKS/KPNA/KBPI FROM ABOUT 17Z MONDAY UNTIL 01Z
TUE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCPR/KCOD/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
FROM FAR EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY TO THE KCPR AIRPORT...THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS
THE SNOW ENDS THE CEILINGS RISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE
REST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH WESTERN
WYOMING THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1021 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
TODAY WAS A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS
PEAKED IN THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS OUT WEST...WITH MID 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AS PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT ONLY 2MB/6HR.
BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS IN COMBINATION WITH FUTURE TRENDS OFF NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP ALL
THAT MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH FREEZING TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO
ONLY OCCUR ABOVE 5000 FT AND MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN FOR
AREAS BELOW 7500 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
AREAS ABOVE 7500 FT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THIS TIME.
ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS...THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000
FT LOOKING TO BE ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK AND A MIXED PRECIP TYPE
CONTINUING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER...WITH ALL
RAIN FURTHER EAST. TEMPS SHOULD STAY COOL IN THE MORNING WITH THE
FRESH SNOWPACK...WITH A SLOW RISE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP
DIMINISHES AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK.
REGARDING EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW TOTALS
FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS IS...WITH A SLIGHT
TREND UPWARD IN ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM OVERALL WITH 120
KT JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER NM/AZ/CO.
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE NIGHT. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS
PROGGED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET THIS EVENING OVER THE CO/KS/NE BORDER...WHICH
WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. INITIAL EAST-
NORTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDED
BOOST OF UPSLOPE FORCING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WITHIN THE
LARAMIE VALLEY. NAM SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THESE FORCING ELEMENTS IN
PLACE...FELT OK IN BUMPING UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUS...PARTICULARLY WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WYOMING PLAINS. IN PARTICULAR...AREAS
FROM THE LARAMIE VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH LARAMIE COUNTY SHOULD SEE
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS WITH 4 TO 7 IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
2 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD BE A CONSERVATIVE NUMBER IF
TEMPS COOL OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENT THINKING OR IF THE SYSTEM IN
GENERAL SLOWS IN SPEED WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE IF THE JET
STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH MORE THAN CURRENT MODELS SHOW.
IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS SO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTRYCONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA. THUS WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...AND INTERSTATE 25 ACROSS
LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW TOTALS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHTER...BUT
AGAIN WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHETHER TEMPS COOL OFF ENOUGH DURING PEAK
FORCING. COULD SEE A GOOD STEADY RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
THAT DONT CHANGE TO SNOW.
PRECIP SHOULD STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
ON TUESDAY...WIND WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR AS A 40 TO 50 KT 700 MB JETMAX CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING SOUTH ON A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM MIDWEEK LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...SO WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY NO POPS WITH IT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT WE
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS PICK UP BY LATE WEEK AGAIN GIVING US A BIT OF A
WARMUP LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
LATEST HRRR FORECAST WAS USED ON THE 06Z TAFS. HAVE WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z...SPREADING INTO KCYS BY 09Z. LOWER CONDITIONS FOR THE
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS WITH MOST AREAS GOING DOWN AFTER 12Z. LOOKS
LIKE A LONG DURATION LOW CEILING/VSBY EVENT LASTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 5 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
NO CHANGES OR UPDATES REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST CYCLE.
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR SETTLING IN
PLACE...SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. MOSTLY RAIN LIGHT
SNOW MIX EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE (NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS). PLEASE SEE THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SNOW IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT MSL...AS DOES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
957 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 15KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT
THRU THE AFTERNOON.
* SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CIGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE
OF 35-45 KT WINDS STILL EXISTS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. GUSTS TO THE
UPPER TEENS ARE OCCASIONALLY SURFACING...BUT EXPECT SW WINDS TO
RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-27 KT OR SO
THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK UP. IF THESE
SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT FOR
NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO
LOW VFR OR MVFR DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW
WINDS...SHIFTING W WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 14-16Z TIME
FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION GIVEN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LESS CONFIDENT THAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THE
TERMINALS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
941 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Area of sprinkles has mostly cleared the far southeast CWA.
Ceilings in this area have been in the 11,000 foot range, so much
of the radar echoes have been virga. Elsewhere, winds already
gusting from 25-30 mph in some locations. Gusty winds will
continue to mix down as a fair amount of sunshine will be
occurring into the afternoon hours.
Updated zones/grids have been sent. While little change in the
daytime forecast was needed, have made some adjustments to the
timing of the rain tonight based on the latest model runs.
Currently is looking like a late evening arrival west of I-55,
while the far southeast may actually stay dry most of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While air mass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface DEWPOINTS only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. High clouds
will move over the sites early this morning, but believe some CU
will develop over the sites later this morning and continue into
the afternoon and evening. Late tonight, the pcpn associated with
the cold front will move into the area and showers will start
around midnight at all sites. Appears there is not enough moisture
to reduce CIGs below VFR and/or to reduce vis below 6sm. So will
be adding showers around midnight at all sites, but not reduce vis
or CIGs at this time. The pcpn looks to continue into the morning
hours at most sites, as well. Winds will be south to southwest
through the period. Was thinking about wind shear this morning,
but current UA sounding, that just started was only showing 40kts
from 700 to over 2KFT. With surface winds around 15mph, will not
have Wind shear this morning. Gusts will increase today and continue
into this evening. Once pcpn begins and winds decrease, believe
wind shear is possible again. Bufkit data supports this as well,
with around 50kts possible near 2KFT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LLWS AT OR AROUND 2KFT AGL WITH SPEEDS NEARING 45-50KT. ANOTHER
ROUND DURING THE EVENING POSSIBLE.
* WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AFT DAYBREAK...INCREASING
WITH SPEEDS ARND 15KT AND GUSTS BETWEEN 22-26KT THRU THE AFTERNOON.
* SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AREA RADAR WIND ESTIMATES SUGGEST A CORE
OF 35-45 KT WINDS STILL EXISTS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. GUSTS TO THE
UPPER TEENS ARE OCCASIONALLY SURFACING...BUT EXPECT SW WINDS TO
RAMP UP A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING BRINGS GUSTS 22-27 KT OR SO
THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENING EXTENDING SOME INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS MIXING EASES BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS BACK UP. IF THESE
SURFACE MORE THAN MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT FOR
NOW WILL MENTION SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST PREVALENT TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MAYBE STILL ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOWER TO
LOW VFR OR MVFR DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SW
WINDS...SHIFTING W WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 14-16Z TIME
FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION GIVEN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LESS CONFIDENT THAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS TIMING/STRENGTH.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER PROBABILITIES AT THE TERMINALS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
513 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While airmass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface dewpoints only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. High clouds
will move over the sites early this morning, but believe some CU
will develop over the sites later this morning and continue into
the afternoon and evening. Late tonight, the pcpn associated with
the cold front will move into the area and showers will start
around midnight at all sites. Appears there is not enough moisture
to reduce cigs below VFR and/or to reduce vis below 6sm. So will
be adding showers around midnight at all sites, but not reduce vis
or cigs at this time. The pcpn looks to continue into the morning
hours at most sites, as well. Winds will be south to southwest
through the period. Was thinking about wind shear this morning,
but current UA sounding, that just started was only showing 40kts
from 700 to over 2kft. With surface winds around 15mph, will not
have Wind shear this morning. Gusts will increase today and continue
into this evening. Once pcpn begins and winds decrease, believe
wind shear is possible again. Bufkit data supports this as well,
with around 50kts possible near 2kft.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID
NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT
THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO
CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB
TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A
THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE
MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO
LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER.
FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL START OUT IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS WAVE...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES MIXED IN. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MOVED UP GUSTS AND INCREASED THEM TO 22 KNOTS PER LATEST
OBSERVATION. ALSO...KEPT AC AROUND A LITTLE LONGER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT AS LOW PRESSURE
ENTERS THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOME TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...SO INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH
AT KIND AND KLAF AFTER TUE 09Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BY THE END OF
TAF PERIOD AS WELL...BUT WILL STILL BE AT VFR LEVEL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 11 TO 13 KTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
635 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...AVIATION SECTION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT
ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER
NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING
TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER
LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
SPRINKLES AND THETA-E ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AND LIKELY BECOME REDUCED IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH HOWEVER, STAYING IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT LASTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 34 58 36 / 30 20 0 0
GCK 69 33 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 67 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 71 33 59 34 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 70 34 59 36 / 30 20 0 0
P28 67 41 59 36 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO
START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS.
STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR
30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO
-3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS
OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E.
ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA
AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE
TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN
BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE
TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A
LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE
6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION
OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN
THE HWO.
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC
LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS
BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TODAY AS DRY AIR
LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS MOVES E...REACHING WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW
-SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL THEN
INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR DURING THE
EVENING AND THEN TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Today - Tonight:
Main challenges during this period will center on precipitation
timing and amounts and effects of clouds/rain on temperatures.
Satellite imagery shows a triple vorticity structure within an
elongated positively tilted upper trough stretching from south
central Canada through the Desert Southwest. While all of the
individual vorticity maxima will miss the CWA the strengthening
southwesterly jet aloft, emanating from the base of the upper
trough, will enhance the lift resulting in increasing shower
coverage across the Central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Initially, the
showers will be rather spotty due to the limited low-level moisture
return. HRRR qpf trend best supports the NAM and LSX WRF output with
widely scattered showers through this afternoon. However, expect the
showers to become rather numerous as the left front quad of the
approaching jet max noses into the region. Operational models in
general agreement on this evolution although the GFS and ECMWF have
been a bit more north and west with the precipitation. Have
generally leaned more on the NAM and LSX WRF which highly favor best
rain chances south of the MO River and geared more towards this
evening.
Can`t rule out a few random rumbles of thunder late this afternoon
and evening but instability, both elevated and surface base
instability remain puny as noted in individual soundings. The
elevated mixed layer will be the primary deterrent. Winds will
remain strong and gusty until cold frontal passage later this
evening although as clouds thicken late this afternoon the deeper
mixing will cease so winds should weaken some.
Tuesday - Thursday:
Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster with below average
readings on Tuesday and Thursday with dry conditions for the most
part. Weak Pacific high pressure will press eastward with the
passage of Monday night`s cold front. While cold air advection will
be muted the CWA will likely have to contend with a considerable
amount of high level cloud cover streaming northeastward from the
baggy southern end of the upper trough.
By Wednesday northwest flow aloft will move into the region with a
clipper type system diving southeast with a rapidly developing
surface low tracking north of the CWA. Most of the precipitation
will remain north of the CWA. However, some light showers or
sprinkles could affect the northeast quarter of the CWA Wednesday
night. Backing surface winds on Wednesday should allow temperatures
to rebound to normal or slightly warmer.
Thursday is looking quite cool with increasing northwest winds
allowing for strong cold air advection. Medium range models have
been trending colder last couple of runs and won`t be surprised if
future forecasts need to further lower high temperatures. Will also
probably see sub-freezing lows Friday morning.
Friday - Sunday:
Below average temperatures will likely continue as northwest flow
aloft brings another fast moving upper system southeast Friday night
and Saturday with another surge of cold air advection. Like
Wednesday`s clipper system expect to see a good deal of cloud cover
and scattered very light showers and/or sprinkles finding their way
into northern parts of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the overnight hours.
Strong and gusty southerly winds will persist through the night also, and
eventually transport enough moisture into the region to push CIGs
lower as showers begin to develop. Lower clouds and scattered
showers will likely begin moving in and developing by the late
morning hours, with widespread showers developing during the mid-
afternoon hours. Confidence in lowering CIGs or restricting visibility
is rather low this far out, so have kept conditions in the MVFR range
for now. Otherwise, expect the strong and gusty wind to prevail
through the this TAF cycle until the weak front moves through late
Monday night, likely only effecting the KSTJ terminal before the end
of this TAF cycle.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
523 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND
OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A 120 KT H25 JET STREAK EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO EASTERN CO. A SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES...FROM ABOUT LUSK TO CHADRON AT 12Z. PCPN BANDING
ALREADY OCCURRING PER THE CYS RADAR LOOP FROM CHEYENNE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN GOSHEN COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW SWATH
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPVS BENEATH LARGER
SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO
THE AREA. GFS AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE H25 JET
THROUGH 18Z...SO EXPECT STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BANDING SNOW. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH
INTO GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTIES...BUT THINK TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LESS THERE AS LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND TOR ARE STILL SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW 40S.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
18Z. MODEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...SO THE
MAIN PUSH OF SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY THEN. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
INTO CHEYENNE FOR POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS. VERY EFFICIENT
SNOW GROWTH IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH PERIODS OF HIGHER RATES AT OUR
OFFICE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BELIEVE WE ARE SEEING ENOUGH
INITIAL MELTING TO KEEP US IN ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IT COULD BE QUITE
CLOSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD
AIR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTN. INHERITED
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA STATE LINE...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOOKS A BIT WARM OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WET BULB COOLING COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE PANHANDLE SITES BASED ON NAM SOUNDING
PROFILES. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR EXPECTED SNOW DEPTH AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROBABLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR LARAMIE LOWS
TONIGHT AS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIGH VALLEYS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE AND WED. LATEST PROGS WOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF A RATHER
POTENT JET STREAK SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 OR 60
METERS AROUND 00Z WED ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H7. BUMPED UP
WINDS AT ARL GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY COOL WEEK
AHEAD...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPS STAY IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE THROUGH WED...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO
50S AT THE SURFACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS STATES
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...A UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 850MB CRAIG-CASPER GRADIENT INCREASES
TO 50M WITH 700MB WINDS PROGGED NEAR 40KT ACROSS THE GAP WIND
LOCALES OF SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH. WESTERN NE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY BUT
COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 30MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING MARKED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. SATURDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM SOUTHEAST
WY INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THESE LOW CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TODAY. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. SNOW
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
WILL MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...THOUGH IT
WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
155 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
258 AM CST
AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MILD START TO THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FINISH ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
HUDSON BAY. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TWO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
TO THE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING INTO MARITIME CANADA AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS
COMPLEX BEING SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
NORTHERN MOST CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER COLORADO WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE.
FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP FORCE AN
UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF IT.
TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PROPEL THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. ULTIMATELY THE TWO LOWS WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RESULTING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER DAY. EXPECT THAT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HELPING THE SFC LOW
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AN AREA
OF PRECIP FROM IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PRECIP AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE OF A GAP WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING EAST INTO MID THURSDAY
MORNING. IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE POP-WISE GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF FORCING SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO PONTIAC AND
POINTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +4C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TUESDAY BUT NORTHWEST AREAS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EASE UP AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION
WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON
WHERE THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SUBTLE
ORIGINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER
CLUSTERING TAKING THE LOW ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LOW WILL PASS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY END AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WHATS LEFT OF THE SHARP WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS WELL BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO AM EXPECTING
MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD PUSH TRAILS THE CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE RIDGING SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING.
* LLWS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
* SHRA LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY PSBL DURING PERIOD OF SHRA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SERN CONUS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A STRENGTHENING SLWY GRADIENT HAS SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME WARMING...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
HAS WEAKENED. INCREASED MIXING IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 25KT LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS LARGER SCALE INVERSION IS STILL IN PLACE AT ARND
5KFT...WHICH IS LIMITING EVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET...BUT
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING BACK LLWS CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH
WHILE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ARND 40-45KT.
THE FETCH OF SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM AN OPENING GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S NOSING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN IOWA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THIS MOISTURE BAND IS EXPECTED TO
MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILE
FORECASTS SUGGEST A SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS AND HAVE LOWERED THE CIG/VIS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS WITH THE
BAND OF PCPN. LINGERING VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT AS WINDS TURN MORE WLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WEAK
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN LLWS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM IN IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF ONSET OF SHRA AND PSBL IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY
AND IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR AND MAINLY DRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CST
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SETUP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO 30 KT AT TIMES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DEEPENING LOW
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. WE GET CLIPPED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE
NW ON SATURDAY. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1129 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Area of sprinkles has mostly cleared the far southeast CWA.
Ceilings in this area have been in the 11,000 foot range, so much
of the radar echoes have been virga. Elsewhere, winds already
gusting from 25-30 mph in some locations. Gusty winds will
continue to mix down as a fair amount of sunshine will be
occurring into the afternoon hours.
Updated zones/grids have been sent. While little change in the
daytime forecast was needed, have made some adjustments to the
timing of the rain tonight based on the latest model runs.
Currently is looking like a late evening arrival west of I-55,
while the far southeast may actually stay dry most of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
08z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while low pressure develops
further west in the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient between
these two features will continue to tighten today, resulting in
gusty southerly winds. Latest regional VAD wind-profiler data shows
a 45-50kt 925mb jet from Missouri northeastward across central and
northern Illinois. Once the nocturnal inversion breaks later this
morning, some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 25 to
30 mph range after 15z. Skies will initially be partly to mostly
cloudy this morning, thanks to ample mid/high clouds streaming
across the area. High-res models such as the HRRR and NAM even hint
at a few sprinkles across south-central/southeast Illinois early in
the morning as a subtle short-wave interacts with the LLJ. Latest
radar mosaic is beginning to show a few light echoes upstream across
central Missouri, so have included scattered sprinkles in the
forecast for the S/SE KILX CWA through mid-morning. After that,
forecast soundings dry out substantially, leading to a mostly sunny
afternoon. Due to ample sunshine later in the day and a strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in
recent days. Will continue to go a few degrees above guidance, with
readings climbing into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Vigorous wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Basin will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, flattening the prevailing ridge and pushing a cold
front into the area. 00z Nov 3 models are in very good agreement
concerning the timing of FROPA and expected QPF and have not varied
much from previous runs. While air mass will initially be quite dry
today, a narrow ribbon of deep-layer moisture will develop
along/behind approaching front later this evening into the overnight
hours. Soundings gradually moisten from the top-down through the
period: however, surface DEWPOINTS only rise into the middle to
upper 40s along the boundary. As a result, think this will be a
high PoP/relatively low QPF event. Based on timing of front, will
carry categorical PoPs across the Illinois River Valley this
evening, with dry weather persisting east of the I-55 corridor.
Rain chances will spread further east overnight, but will likely not
arrive southeast of the I-70 corridor until Tuesday morning.
Soundings continue to show little or no elevated instability, so
will not mention thunder at this time. Best rain chances will shift
into east-central/southeast Illinois on Tuesday, while showers come
to an end across the Illinois River Valley by afternoon. As front
pushes into Indiana, showers will linger across the far E/SE into
Tuesday evening before coming to an end during the night. Total
rainfall from this event will generally be around one half an inch.
Once front passes, a warm/dry day can be anticipated on Wednesday
with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
After that, a series of short-waves will drop southeastward out of
Canada, bringing periodic shower chances and bouts of cool weather
through the remainder of the extended. Timing of these individual
waves will be tricky and will likely change from run-to-run. As it
stands now, it appears the first wave will track across the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. While
the strongest lift will remain just north of central Illinois,
clouds and scattered showers are anticipated as this feature skirts
by to the north. After a brief return to mostly sunny and dry
weather on Friday, a second wave will take a similar track across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Will therefore increase
cloud cover and introduce a chance for showers on Saturday.
Temperatures from Thursday through Sunday will be below normal for
this time of year, with daytime highs mainly in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Gusty SSW winds to 25 knots or so to continue into the early
evening hours. High-res models continue to point to some LLWS
potential this evening and for a few hours past 06Z, ahead of an
area of showers that will precede a cold front. MVFR ceilings
likely to overspread the TAF sites after 06Z as the rain arrives.
The front itself will slowly move across the TAF sites Tuesday
morning, but will likely not reach KCMI until closer to midday. As
such, the rain and lower clouds will continue there most of the
morning, but some gradual improvement is expected further
northwest.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID
NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT
THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO
CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB
TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A
THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE
MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO
LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER.
FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TIMING OF POPS AS THREE
SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN VARYING DEGREES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION.
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE GFS HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN EAST COAST.
THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO MOVE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
QPF TO THE EAST AS ITS 06Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
PREFER TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS GOING PER THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
THIS AND CONSISTENCY REASONS. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER OF ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER FEATURE
WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS WITH LOW LEVEL MODEL THICKNESSES
PLAYING TUG OF WAR WITH THE LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN ONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A DRY SUNDAY BUT THEN MODELS
COME INTO DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH...THEY ALL BRING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAD MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE DRIER MOISTURE FIELD OF THE ECMWF WAS
LAGGING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE GFS HAS SOME QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND DO
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL THE MODELS COME
TOGETHER MORE.
WITH MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONLY BRIEF BREAKS...WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S PER REGIONAL
BLEND LOOK GOOD. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...SHOULD NOT SEE A
HUGE DROP IN NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY LOWS IN THE 30S A
GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT LAF AND LATER AT
THE OTHER TAF SITES. THEN...CU WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAF COULD SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AT
THAT POINT AS RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 09Z THERE. OTHERWISE...THE AC DECK
WILL BE MOVING OUT NEAR ISSUANCE TIME LEAVING BEHIND A VEIL OF
CIRRUS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO 7 KNOTS OR MORE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THE
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
THUS ONLY WENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA SHRINKING AS IT MOVES EAST SO DID
NOT GO PAST NOON WITH SPRINKLES MENTION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED BUT FORECAST ENDS UP ABOUT
THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY. NO
CU IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE IR IMAGES SHOWING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. 850MB
TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD 11-12C...AMID GOOD MIXING AND A
THIN VAIL OF HIGH CLOUD. GIVEN THIS WILL NOT VEER FAR FROM THE
MAVMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOK ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIGHT BEHIND THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN IT DOES SHOW A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP SATURATION AVAILABLE...ARRIVING IN NW INDIANA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER BY 18Z...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SAG
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO
LOOKS FAVORABLE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COOLER.
FORCING IS THEN LOST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WHICH LOOK TO DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY OUT RAPIDLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL START OUT IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS WAVE...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES MIXED IN. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT LAF AND LATER AT
THE OTHER TAF SITES. THEN...CU WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAF COULD SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AT
THAT POINT AS RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 09Z THERE. OTHERWISE...THE AC DECK
WILL BE MOVING OUT NEAR ISSUANCE TIME LEAVING BEHIND A VEIL OF
CIRRUS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO 7 KNOTS OR MORE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
MAIN SFC SYSTEM JUST SW OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
FORCING BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH THETAE ADVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KS HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER EASTERN KS. BOTH MESO SCALE
MODELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE HAVE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SHIFTING EAST OVER OUR AREA
WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BOTH EXPANDING THE SHOWERS WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN MOVING OUT THE SHOWERS BY 07Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH
HAVE BEEN DRY MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SATURATED BY 00Z AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z
WEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 06-07Z
OVERNIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
THROUGH 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR BY MORNING. MIXING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP MINS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BEYOND THE MID 30S OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...MINS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO FLUCTUATE ON STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ONLY CERTAINTY IS TIMING AND SOME OF THE THERMAL TRENDS AS ALL
MODELS SHOWING SUBSEQUENT PUSHES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST COMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE END AND JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...SO STILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LIKELIES GOING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS THEN BRIEFLY PUSH BACK INTO THE CWA WITH BRIEF RIDGING
ALOFT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONGER WAVE THEN DIGGING INTO THE REGION FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS AGAIN REVERTING BACK TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS KIND OF
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...VERSUS THE DEEP TROUGH FROM
RUNS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUIDANCE CHANCE POPS
DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT/STRENGTH. DECENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO AGAIN COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALSO FALLING TEMPS LOOK
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...FOR NOW HAVE JUST STUCK WITH ONLY SMALL DIURNAL RISES AT
THIS TIME.
MAIN DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS THE EC DIGS ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
US AS THE WAVE REMAINS WEAKER AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SAME PATH AS
THE OTHER IMPACTING MORE OF THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOVE
VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -10C OR COLDER BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR AT LEAST A MAJOR
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE...AND IF THE EC IS CORRECT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...BUT ENDING SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. AS MAIN
WAVE APPROACHES...SHOWERS INCREASE AND CIGS BEGIN TO DROP BY
22-03Z OVER THE AREA. BROUGHT -SHRA INTO AREA AS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LOOKS MORE CERTAIN THAN EARLIER PACKAGE. TIMING OF WAVE
EXPECTED TO TAKE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY 05-08Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. WINDS MIX
AGAIN AFT 14-15Z TUE WITH GUSTS 15 KTS FROM WEST MOST AREAS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1147 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP APPEARS TO BE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AFTER 18Z AND BY LATE DAY BE LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE 500 J/KG AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM AND
RAP AT 21Z MONDAY HAS 50 TO 70KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, HOWEVER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH
RANGE FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
RAP, NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 600 MB LEVEL CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY . EVEN THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS,
HOWEVER THESE WERE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARDS PROGRESSION. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN
IMPROVING 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST A DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
EARLY TONIGHT A THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT START TO
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DECREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SO TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INSERT PATCH FROST LATE TONIGHT WHERE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST STAYED CLOSER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING AND THE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE MAIN THEME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT
ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S MOST MORNINGS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR PATTERN, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE ANY ONE OF THESE OVERNIGHTS, HOWEVER
NO MODEL OUTPUT OR EVEN MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING. THE MODELS AND MOS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
LOW TO MID 30`S IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS. FROST IS PROBABLY GOING
TO BE THE MORE LIKELY WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
WHERE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
LAST WEEK (MAINLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER
LINE). ANY SHORT TIMEFRAME THAT MAY SEE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
RETURN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS FREQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ONE COLD FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION. FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY WINDY WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH CLOUDY SKIES AOA050. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 34 58 36 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 70 33 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 67 33 58 36 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 72 33 59 34 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 70 34 59 36 / 30 10 0 0
P28 67 41 59 36 / 60 60 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF
THREE MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH
MANITOBA WILL NOT IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES...BUT TWO
OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL. THE FIRST WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER WRN
NEBRASKA WILL BE LIFTING NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.
A SECOND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SE AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND INCREASING 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE INITIAL LINE OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON MQT
RADAR IN PAST HR MAY JUST BE PRODUCING A BRIEF LIGHT SHRA OR
SPRINKLE OVER WEST AND SCNTRL UPR MI AS CLOUD CEILING HGTS PRETTY
HIGH BTWN 7-10 KFT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...SFC OBS
REPORTING LOWER CIGS AND STEADY SHRA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INCREASING Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC COLD FRONT. INITIAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT OF
UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE POP AND PCPN FCST TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS LATE TONIGHT
SHOWING PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG SFC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA FOR HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING
850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT PASSING TO EAST IN THE MORNING
LOOK FOR SHRA TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES IN
THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING NEAR -5C LATE
IN DAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT.
ALSO SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN -10C OR
BLO DGZ SO THIS TOO SHOULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY. SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL
SEE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN LATE IN DAY...ABV
LIMITING FACTOR POINT TOWARD PCPN COVERAGE BEING ISOLD AT BEST AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO NW FCST AREA WHICH WOULD BE ONLY AREA FAVORING
FOR LAKE PCPN IN WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH INCREASED MIXING IN CAA REGIME. FCST SNDGS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH AT OR ABV 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE
WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH)
AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z
MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD
ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT
COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70
PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL
THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING
W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE
KEWEENAW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
WITH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (25-30KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION AND WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. WETBULB0
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EQUILIBRIUM
HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 8KFT) BUT WONDERING IF THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
AND LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. THAT STRONG WIND WILL ALSO HELP THE
WARMER TEMPS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND BELIEVE THAT WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A DUSTING.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST) WILL BE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK...CROSSING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PINPOINTING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW (TRENDING NORTH)
AND RELATED THERMAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL DETERMINE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN PRECIP LOCATION...PUSHING IT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. TO LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING FARTHER NORTH. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL AIR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL MELT THE SNOW BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN AREAS...HAVE AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 12Z
MODELS...THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AND COULD ADD
ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS THAT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING BUT
COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S WEATHER IS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CUTS OUT AND LIMITS ICE NUCLEI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70
PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL
THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1251 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROF CONSISTS OF ONE MAIN
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND 2 MAIN WAVES IN THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROF...ONE OVER SW CO AND THE OTHER FARTHER TO THE
SW. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL END UP PLAYING THE MAIN ROLE IN THE SHORT
TERM WEATHER HERE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN GULF TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...DRY WEATHER
HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS NOTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL PER 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS/LACK OF FORCING INITIALLY TODAY WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THEN...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS MAY FINALLY RESULT IN SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NE INTO UPPER MI. SINCE OVERALL FORCING IS STILL MEAGER...INCLUDING
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BELIEVE PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN IS QUITE LOW...AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN WITH ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
SPREADING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID AND MAINLY LATE AFTN.
SINCE CLOUDS SHOULDN`T THICKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO LIFTS NE...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE.
LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MAY END UP IN WRN UPPER MI ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS E OF THAT AREA. IN FACT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW HEAVIER PCPN STREAKING NE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THAT AREA. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS
OVER THE W TONIGHT...AND IN THE END...ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC COLD
SHOULD BE BISECTING UPPER MI AT 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W AND DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AS LOW
AS AROUND -2C AT KIWD...FCST SOUNDINGS/WET BULB HEIGHTS INDICATE NO
RISK OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 30S BY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WINDS IN THE W TO N CORRIDOR. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC...RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO
START THE DAY TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AT
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS.
STEADY W WINDS COULD GUSTS 25-30KTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WESTERN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BETWEEN 800 AND 925MB HOVER NEAR
30-35KTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AN AVERAGE 3C AT 12Z TUESDAY TO
-3C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS
OVER THE W...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE APEX OF
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E.
ANY RIDING ALOFT...AND DRYING AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS E CANADA
AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S. MOVES IN FROM THE W. LOOK FOR THE
TROUGH ACROSS MN AT 00Z THURSDAY TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE N
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LAKE MI BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS BEEN
BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH. A CLOSER MORE N SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN THE
TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A
LOW AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST HAS RETURNED TO A STRONGER N WIND SCENARIO FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WITH WAVES HEIGHTS FCST TO BE
6-9FT ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES...THE MENTION
OF MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN
THE HWO.
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC
LOW MERGES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DETAILS
BECOME A BIT MURKY AT THAT POINT AS THE FCST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MVMT OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
A FEW -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL
THEN INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REBOUND TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED MIXING WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH BY LATE TUE
MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT (STRONGEST E) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING W WINDS TO 20-30KT WILL OCCUR
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL BE
DEEPENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY THU MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 20KT WED INTO WED EVENING. AS THE PRES GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING 25-30KT FOR A PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Today - Tonight:
Main challenges during this period will center on precipitation
timing and amounts and effects of clouds/rain on temperatures.
Satellite imagery shows a triple vorticity structure within an
elongated positively tilted upper trough stretching from south
central Canada through the Desert Southwest. While all of the
individual vorticity maxima will miss the CWA the strengthening
southwesterly jet aloft, emanating from the base of the upper
trough, will enhance the lift resulting in increasing shower
coverage across the Central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Initially, the
showers will be rather spotty due to the limited low-level moisture
return. HRRR qpf trend best supports the NAM and LSX WRF output with
widely scattered showers through this afternoon. However, expect the
showers to become rather numerous as the left front quad of the
approaching jet max noses into the region. Operational models in
general agreement on this evolution although the GFS and ECMWF have
been a bit more north and west with the precipitation. Have
generally leaned more on the NAM and LSX WRF which highly favor best
rain chances south of the MO River and geared more towards this
evening.
Can`t rule out a few random rumbles of thunder late this afternoon
and evening but instability, both elevated and surface base
instability remain puny as noted in individual soundings. The
elevated mixed layer will be the primary deterrent. Winds will
remain strong and gusty until cold frontal passage later this
evening although as clouds thicken late this afternoon the deeper
mixing will cease so winds should weaken some.
Tuesday - Thursday:
Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster with below average
readings on Tuesday and Thursday with dry conditions for the most
part. Weak Pacific high pressure will press eastward with the
passage of Monday night`s cold front. While cold air advection will
be muted the CWA will likely have to contend with a considerable
amount of high level cloud cover streaming northeastward from the
baggy southern end of the upper trough.
By Wednesday northwest flow aloft will move into the region with a
clipper type system diving southeast with a rapidly developing
surface low tracking north of the CWA. Most of the precipitation
will remain north of the CWA. However, some light showers or
sprinkles could affect the northeast quarter of the CWA Wednesday
night. Backing surface winds on Wednesday should allow temperatures
to rebound to normal or slightly warmer.
Thursday is looking quite cool with increasing northwest winds
allowing for strong cold air advection. Medium range models have
been trending colder last couple of runs and won`t be surprised if
future forecasts need to further lower high temperatures. Will also
probably see sub-freezing lows Friday morning.
Friday - Sunday:
Below average temperatures will likely continue as northwest flow
aloft brings another fast moving upper system southeast Friday night
and Saturday with another surge of cold air advection. Like
Wednesday`s clipper system expect to see a good deal of cloud cover
and scattered very light showers and/or sprinkles finding their way
into northern parts of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
Mid lvl clouds around 10-12kft will be the rule through the afternoon
hours before bkn-ovc clouds btn 3-4kft moves into the terminals this
evening. Expect lgt shra to overspread the terminals btn 01Z-02Z out
ahead of an approaching cold front. Vis restrictions are not expected
with -shra however cigs may drop into MVFR cat. FROPA will veer SSW
winds around to the NW around 10kts btn 06Z-07Z. Expect cigs to
quickly lift back to VFR conds behind the front around 09Z. VFR conds
will then cont thru the duration of the TAF pd.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ARE STILL OBSERVING BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A SLOW CLEARING TREND HAS BEGUN OVER MOST
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE STATE. AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR ARRIVING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT FULLY EXIT THE STATE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REACHED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS TAKES
SHAPE IN AZ. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS AS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW BRIEFLY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE APTLY
HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT
POPS MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW MAY
BE OCCURRING SLOWER THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTING. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD EASE FARTHER WESTWARD IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN.
THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AS A MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY DOWNSTREAM OF
GAPS/CANYONS...MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCHES TO A WARNING FOR ALBUQUERQUE/SOCORRO ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE SANTA ROSA AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY ZONES. WILL ALSO
UPGRADE THE SANTA FE ZONE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING...BUT WILL DROP
QUAY COUNTY`S WATCH.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS TUESDAY NIGHT UNFOLDS...SOME ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO TACK
THESE ONTO CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SET IN ORDER TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLIFIED. HOPEFULLY THE LACK OF WINDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO
DELINEATE WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD STILL PROVE TO BE CHALLENGING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE SHOWN TO MIGRATE TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...KEEPING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER
NM. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT
MIGHT BRING SOME MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. FROM HERE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFERENCES OF OPINIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE
REMAINING ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL END UP BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO OR NOT...AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT REMAIN INTACT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT REMAINING NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BUT IF
THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST...IT MIGHT HELP SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT TO A MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION...AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV...AS WELL AS A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS...MORE THAN WHAT MODELS NOW INDICATING. AN INCREASE IN MT TOP
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A POSSIBILITY SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
IN ANY EVENT...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ACROSS NM...VENTILATION WILL BECOME POOR OVER THE NORTH
TUESDAY...OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH SOME
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 PERCENT
OR GREATER.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROF TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT 12 HRS. BEST
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF A KTCS TO KTCC
LINE. LOCAL IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS AREA WITH MT OBSCURATIONS TO
PERSIST. COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT DOWN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFT 00Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST WIND INTO THE RGV AFT 03Z. AN AREA OF MT TOP TO MID LIVEL
CLOUDINESS COULD DEVELOP 03Z-08Z OVER CENTRAL NM AS WELL BUT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 04/18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 26 53 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 21 54 18 60 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 24 52 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 54 18 62 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 22 51 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 22 53 17 59 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 24 52 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 28 63 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 50 18 57 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 50 28 56 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 27 48 27 57 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 50 16 57 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 17 41 13 49 / 20 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 47 9 55 / 20 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 51 18 57 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 24 47 22 58 / 20 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 29 55 22 63 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 49 29 57 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 52 29 60 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 53 32 61 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 55 36 63 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 57 27 65 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 57 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 30 57 30 64 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 56 32 64 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 34 59 33 66 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 51 29 58 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 32 52 31 60 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 54 24 62 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 47 28 60 / 10 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 51 30 59 / 20 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 36 54 31 62 / 40 20 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 50 28 60 / 50 30 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 51 23 58 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 52 25 62 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 26 53 24 63 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 24 48 25 61 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 30 54 35 65 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 52 31 64 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 57 32 68 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 35 53 32 66 / 10 10 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 57 30 69 / 20 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 37 50 34 65 / 60 40 20 5
PORTALES........................ 39 50 33 65 / 60 40 30 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 54 32 66 / 40 30 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 47 57 34 65 / 60 40 30 5
PICACHO......................... 39 50 32 62 / 60 40 20 5
ELK............................. 36 48 32 58 / 60 40 20 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ519-520-532-533.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE MOUNTAIN PEEKS AOA 6000 FEET ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND AOA 6500 FT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
18Z NAM INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES STARTING
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ALONG
THE CASCADES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE
RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED TERRAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN..AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
AS THIS WESTERLY WIND SETS UP...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE
HELD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT
MOVING OVER THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVELS AS WELL AS
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BIEDA
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT/SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE MORNING WILL SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH THE FRONT
AND DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN 5-8 10 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE RIDGE
THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. COONFIELD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS 500MB HEIGHTS AVERAGE
576DM OVER THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED AND
A POSSIBLE COLD POOL/INVERSION FORMING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF ALLOWING
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...DECIDED TO
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 03/12Z ECMWF WHICH WOULD BRING A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY INTO NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND IDAHO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...STRONGER
WINDS AND A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO MONDAY. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +10C ON SUNDAY TO +2C BY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO ALSO FALL TO 6000
- 7000 FEET. MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO
MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH GENERALLY DRIER
AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE BASIN FOG EVENTS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG SEASON. MURPHY
&&
.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY 0-14Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER 5-8
KFT OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KDLS 9-13Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS UNTIL 15Z THEN
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL. 76
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 48 63 48 64 / 70 70 10 10
ALW 50 63 49 64 / 70 70 10 20
PSC 50 65 49 62 / 80 50 10 10
YKM 45 60 44 57 / 80 40 10 20
HRI 49 65 49 64 / 70 60 10 10
ELN 44 58 42 55 / 90 50 10 20
RDM 42 59 41 65 / 70 40 20 10
LGD 41 53 42 59 / 80 80 20 10
GCD 41 54 41 61 / 70 80 20 10
DLS 50 62 50 64 / 80 60 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
98/76/77/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
206 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE MOUNTAIN PEEKS AOA 6000 FEET ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND AOA 6500 FT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
18Z NAM INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES STARTING
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ALONG
THE CASCADES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE
RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED TERRAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN..AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
AS THIS WESTERLY WIND SETS UP...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE
HELD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT
MOVING OVER THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVELS AS WELL AS
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BIEDA
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT/SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE MORNING WILL SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH THE FRONT
AND DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN 5-8 10 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE RIDGE
THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. COONFIELD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AS 500MB HEIGHTS AVERAGE
576DM OVER THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED AND
A POSSIBLE COLD POOL/INVERSION FORMING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT OVER THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF ALLOWING
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...DECIDED TO
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 03/12Z ECMWF WHICH WOULD BRING A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY INTO NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND IDAHO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...STRONGER
WINDS AND A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO MONDAY. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +10C ON SUNDAY TO +2C BY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO ALSO FALL TO 6000
- 7000 FEET. MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO
MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH GENERALLY DRIER
AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE BASIN FOG EVENTS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG SEASON. MURPHY
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. SPOTTY RAIN WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 4-10KFT OVER THE NEXT
8 HOURS...LOWERING 3-6KFT OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 KTS UNTIL 15Z THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 76
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 48 63 48 64 / 70 70 10 10
ALW 50 63 49 64 / 70 70 10 20
PSC 50 65 49 62 / 80 50 10 10
YKM 45 60 44 57 / 80 40 10 20
HRI 49 65 49 64 / 70 60 10 10
ELN 44 58 42 55 / 90 50 10 20
RDM 42 59 41 65 / 70 40 20 10
LGD 41 53 42 59 / 80 80 20 10
GCD 41 54 41 61 / 70 80 20 10
DLS 50 62 50 64 / 80 60 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
98/76/77/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
401 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN
UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS
WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND.
PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND
WEBCAMS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST
AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN
CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA.
ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET
COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED
MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND
THURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND
BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
LINGERING MVFR CIGS DUE TO -SHRA WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES PLACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGES OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WEST COAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS WITHIN THE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 120-KT 300-MB JET. AN
UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WAS PREVENTING THE NEB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FROM WRAPPING UP...SO THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN SD. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...AND THIS
WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY INTENSE PRECIP RATES IN THE NARROW BAND.
PRECIP HAD CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN OVER SCNTRL SD PER SFC OBS AND
WEBCAMS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST
AND WEAKENING...AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ERN
CWA AT OR AROUND 24Z. SKIES THEN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE CWA.
ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTER AS A STRONG JET
COMES ASHORE AND SPREADS CONSIDERABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY 3-5C AND THUS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY. A FAST-MOVING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT AND REDUCED
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE LOW CROSSES ND...CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN SD WED
MRNG. CURRENT MODEL BLEND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE POPS FOR WED MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL
INCREASE IN THE MORNING...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES THURS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND AREA IS UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER TROF TRACKS ACROSS ND
THURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT IN ITS STRENGTH...AND
BLEND KEEPS PRECIP IN ND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON NOV 3 2014
BAND OF RAIN SHWRS LINGERING OVER SCNTRL SD WL CONT TO MOV
EASTWARD THIS AFTN. MID LVL CIGS WL CONTINUE ACRS MUCH OF WRN SD
THIS AFTN...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS W/ THE PRECIP. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25 KT W/ GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS PLAINS WL DCRS BY EARLY
EVEN...SHIFTING TO THE SW IN NERN WY OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLR SKIES
AND LGT WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TUES MRNG.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1017 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SWRN SD AND
ALSO TO ADD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z KUNR
SOUNDING...SUGGESTED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FROM ASCENT TO
REACH THE WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE HIGHER-ELEVATION AREAS
THAT ARE SEEING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT-
TERM PROGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE UPPER ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. A 80-90KT JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SW-NE. THE SFC CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN INTO NERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BUT RELATIVELY STRONG AREA OF
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTN. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
BAND OF RAIN SHWRS OVER SCNTRL SD WL CONT TO MOV EASTWARD THIS
AFTN...MIXED W/ SNW OVR PINE RIDGE AREA. MID LVL CIGS WL CONTINUE
ACRS MUCH OF WRN SD THIS AFTN...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE PRECIP.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT W/ GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS THE NW AND W
CNTRL SD PLAINS WL DCRS BY EARLY EVEN. MSTLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TUES MRNG.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
919 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SWRN SD AND
ALSO TO ADD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z KUNR
SOUNDING...SUGGESTED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FROM ASCENT TO
REACH THE WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE HIGHER-ELEVATION AREAS
THAT ARE SEEING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT-
TERM PROGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
THE UPPER ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. A 80-90KT JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SW-NE. THE SFC CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN INTO NERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BUT RELATIVELY STRONG AREA OF
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTN. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...INCLUDING KRAP...DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA IS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION...TIMING
OF PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. THOUGH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM THIS EVENING OVER IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN EXIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT
LINGERS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A POTENT BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TO THAT PART
OF THE STATE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. BUT CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHERE DEEPER DRYING HOLDS FIRM. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAYS
READINGS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST MON NOV 3 2014
PCPN CHANCES AND TYPE WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.
AT LEAST TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...
ONE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A COUPLE SURGES
OF ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE WED-THU CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AS THEY HAVE A SIMILAR SFC LOW TRACK (THRU SOUTHERN WI)
AND TIMING. PCPN WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDDAY...THEN
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NC/FAR NE/C WI ON WEDS
NGT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS. MIXED RAIN/SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMS. THE GFS IS INITIALLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LESS SNOW ACCUMS THAN THE ECMWF.
THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVG THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDL SNOW ACCUMS AND
A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SUPPORT A COUPLE
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ATTM. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT THIS
OUT...SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESSS...
IT LOOKS QUITE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON NOV 3 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
MID-EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE BY
THIS TIME. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES AND SHOWERS END LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
914 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAVE CHANGED OVER TO
SNOW THIS MORNING WITHIN THE BAND OF PRECIP NOW SITUATED FROM
ALLIANCE TO KIMBALL AND STEADILY MOVING EAST. UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE...AS WELL AS ADDED IN
ISOLATED THUNDER AS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN
THE BAND. COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY...WITH
PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE THUNDERSNOW. ACROSS
WYOMING...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BAND...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITHIN THE
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO MIX
RAIN WITH THE SNOW ABOVE 5500 FT...AND LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO ALL
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNSET
WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S TONIGHT. ICY
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS TEMPS DROP AND RAIN/SLUSH FREEZES ONTO
ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND
OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A 120 KT H25 JET STREAK EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO EASTERN CO. A SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES...FROM ABOUT LUSK TO CHADRON AT 12Z. PCPN BANDING
ALREADY OCCURRING PER THE CYS RADAR LOOP FROM CHEYENNE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN GOSHEN COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW SWATH
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPVS BENEATH LARGER
SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO
THE AREA. GFS AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE H25 JET
THROUGH 18Z...SO EXPECT STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BANDING SNOW. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH
INTO GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTIES...BUT THINK TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LESS THERE AS LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND TOR ARE STILL SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW 40S.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
18Z. MODEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...SO THE
MAIN PUSH OF SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY THEN. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
INTO CHEYENNE FOR POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS. VERY EFFICIENT
SNOW GROWTH IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH PERIODS OF HIGHER RATES AT OUR
OFFICE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BELIEVE WE ARE SEEING ENOUGH
INITIAL MELTING TO KEEP US IN ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IT COULD BE QUITE
CLOSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD
AIR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTN. INHERITED
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG THE WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA STATE LINE...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOOKS A BIT WARM OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WET BULB COOLING COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE PANHANDLE SITES BASED ON NAM SOUNDING
PROFILES. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR EXPECTED SNOW DEPTH AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. PROBABLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR LARAMIE LOWS
TONIGHT AS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIGH VALLEYS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE AND WED. LATEST PROGS WOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF A RATHER
POTENT JET STREAK SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 50 OR 60
METERS AROUND 00Z WED ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H7. BUMPED UP
WINDS AT ARL GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS. LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY COOL WEEK
AHEAD...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPS STAY IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE THROUGH WED...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO
50S AT THE SURFACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS STATES
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...A UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 850MB CRAIG-CASPER GRADIENT INCREASES
TO 50M WITH 700MB WINDS PROGGED NEAR 40KT ACROSS THE GAP WIND
LOCALES OF SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH. WESTERN NE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY BUT
COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS OVER 30MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING MARKED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. SATURDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
BALMY TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM SOUTHEAST
WY INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THESE LOW CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 515 AM MST MON NOV 3 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TODAY. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. SNOW
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
WILL MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...THOUGH IT
WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH