Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/02/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
905 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. VEERING PROFILE IS ALSO EVIDENT
WITH EAST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
700 MB. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BREEZY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SUPERSTITION MOUNTAINS. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN PINAL COUNTY...THOUGH THIS TRAJECTORY IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE...WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. HOWEVER...RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IN PHOENIX AND 98 DEGREES
IN YUMA APPEAR OUT OF REACH. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONSENSUS
AMONG THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS THAT THIS WILL BE WELL TO
OUR EAST...CLOSER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY MINOR SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.
DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WINDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GOING VARIABLE OR SWITCHING OUT OF THE WEST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
342 PM PDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold front is impacting NorCal through this evening. Rain and
mountain snow with isolated thunderstorms will impact Halloween
activities this evening. Showers are expected behind the front on
Saturday then end Sunday. Drier and milder weather next week.
&&
.Discussion...
Rain, from sprinkles to light & moderate rain, continues to impact
interior NorCal this afternoon and will continue this evening.
The 20z HRRR model is consistent with earlier runs showing the
main rain band pushing into the Sierra by 5-6 pm then reaching
pass levels by 10 pm. Another important note is that the Northern
Sacramento Valley still has the best chance for thunderstorm
development later this afternoon into evening. This latest HRRR
run shows the typical convergence line setting up between Red
Bluff and Redding crossing I-5 during early evening hours (5-9 pm).
Rain totals in the valley remain impressive with some
locations getting up towards 0.75" and most snow amounts above
6000 ft should range between 6-10".
Even though some valley locations will see breaks in the rain, it
won`t be completely dry this evening. Trick-or-Treaters need to
be prepared for wet conditions and should seek shelter if
thunderstorms are nearby. Roads will be slick from the rain and
motorists in the Sierra need to be prepared for winter driving
conditions.
Showery conditions will linger into Saturday after the main
frontal band passes east with some mountain showers persisting
into early Sunday morning. With all this moisture and cold morning
temperatures, there could be some patchy fog development during
the very early morning hours on Sunday. It`s tricky to say how
widespread the fog could be or how long it will last because
northerly winds will also develop Sunday morning. Even light
northerly winds (around 5 mph or higher) can inhibit fog.
Daytime highs over the weekend will be cool with valley highs only
warming into the mid 60s for much of our CWA. By Monday, dry
weather with a warming trend will settle in for the rest of the week.
JBB
&&
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
High pressure ridging along the west coast will be the dominant
weather feature through the extended period. Daytime highs will
climb Tuesday and Wednesday before stabilizing Thursday and
Friday. In any case, max temperature will be around 5 degrees
above normal. Extended models do move a weak system over the north
end of the ridge and into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday
according to the ECMWF. On the other hand, the GFS and GEM are a
bit slower (12-18 hrs) and weaker with this wave. We compromised
with the models and meshed with our neighboring coastal offices on
introduced and slight chance of precip over the Coastal Mountains
Wed night into Thu night. JClapp
&&
.Aviation...
Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the Valley in
rain. A few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out this afternoon and
evening across the Valley. IFR/LIFR conditions expected over the
mountains with snow levels dropping to ~5000 ft tonight.
Scattered showers expected to continue across the area tonight.
South winds expected to increase to 15 kt late this afternoon
and evening as front passes, becoming lighter overnight. Over the
mountains, SW wind gusts 35 to 50 kt possible through tonight.
JClapp/Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 2 pm pdt saturday above 6000 feet
in the western plumas county/lassen park.
winter storm warning until 2 pm pdt saturday above 6000 feet in
the west slope northern sierra nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1026 AM PDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold front will impact interior NorCal today and tonight
bringing rain and mountain snow with isolated thunderstorms.
Much cooler temperatures are also expected. Showers are expected
behind the front on Saturday then end Sunday. Drier and milder
weather next week.
&&
.Discussion...
The rain has moved inland and several locations in our CWA are
getting sprinkles to light & moderate rain. High resolution models
show that the main band of precipitation will be fairly
centered over NorCal from Redding down into Sacramento and into
the Bay Area by noon. The latest HRRR model this morning is
indicating that the main rain band will be pushing into the
eastern side of the valley into the Sierra by 5-6 pm. Which means
some valley locations could start seeing breaks in the rain, but
it won`t be completely dry. Another important note from the HRRR is
that the Northern Sacramento Valley could have the best chance
for thunderstorm development later this afternoon into evening.
Rain totals in the valley are fairly impressive with some
locations getting up towards 0.75" and most snow amounts above
6000 ft should range between 6-10".
Our main message has not changed: Very wet today with snow in
the Sierra by 5-6 pm. Trick-or-Treaters need to be prepared for
wet conditions and need to seek shelter if thunderstorms are
nearby. Roads will be slick from the rain and motorists in the
Sierra need to be prepared for winter driving conditions.
.Previous Discussion...
As the front moves into the Sierra late this afternoon
and tonight...higher elevations will see snowfall. Snow levels by
early this evening are forecast to drop to pass levels then
expected to continue to drop to as low as 4500-5000 feet on
Saturday as cooler air behind the front moves into the region. The
main frontal band shifts east of the state by mid day Saturday
with showers likely to continue through the day as the main upper
low crosses the north state. Cool temperatures continue on
Saturday with daytime highs as much as 10 degrees below normal.
Sierra showers end on Saturday night as the upper flow becomes
more anti-cyclonic behind a retreating upper level trough. High
pressure building over the eastern Pacific and west coast will
bring clearing skies on Sunday and the beginning of a warming
trend that should last through most of next week. By Monday...High
pressure building over the west coast will bring still warmer
temperatures with daytime highs climbing to just below normal.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
High pressure ridging along the west coast will be the dominant
weather feature through the extended period. Daytime highs will climb
Tuesday and Wednesday warning to several degrees above normal.
Extended models now move a weak system over the north end of the
ridge and into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. Operational
ECMWF would bring light precipitation across much of the forecast
area but for now...have gone with the GEM and GFS models which
keep precipitation just north of the CWA. Extended models now in
good agreement in keeping some form of ridging over the west coast
through the end of next week so extended period remains dry with
slightly above normal temperatures.
&&
.Aviation...
A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions across the forecast area this
morning as a cold front moves inland. Steady rain has already developed
near KRDD-KRBL and KVCB-KSUU. Some sprinkles have started in the
Sac Metro region, but expect steadier rain near Sacramento and
Stockton TAF sites between 20-22z. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions
are expected across the Valley in rain. A few thunderstorms can`t
be ruled out this afternoon and evening across the Valley.
IFR/LIFR conditions expected over the mountains with snow levels
dropping from ~7500 ft this morning to ~5000 ft tonight. Scattered
showers expected to continue across the area tonight.
South winds up to 15 kt expected to continue across the Valley
through this afternoon, becoming lighter overnight. Over the
mountains, SW wind gusts up to 50 kt possible through tonight.
Dang/JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 pm pdt
saturday above 6000 feet in the western plumas county/lassen
park.
winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 pm pdt
saturday above 6000 feet in the west slope northern sierra
nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
406 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH AT THE
SURFACE SO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE AREA
THAN WITH STRONGER WINDS AND UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. IR SAT
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ABOUT
50 MILES OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE ONTO
THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
FAIRLY DECENT BREAK IN THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY SLOT.
THE HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH INSTABILITY OR QPF SO THE
SHOWERS MAY BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE IR SAT SHOWING THE TROUGH OFFSHORE
HAS FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS. AROUND -45C IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF US. SNOW LEVELS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL DROP AS LOW
AS 4500 FT TONIGHT AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OVER THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME VORT MAXES
ROTATE AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF VORT MAX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS A
BIT...ALTHOUGH ONLY ECMWF HAS SOME QPF DURING THIS TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
VALLEYS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS. ANY AREAS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN
CLEAR WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FROST. HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY REBOUND INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT AND THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FROST...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS
CLOSER. MONDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND BRINGING SOME CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO INHIBIT COOLING IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT. MKK
&&
.AVIATION...MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH IS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL START
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
WILL DIMINISH. MKK
.LONG TERM...PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, KEPT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH MINIMAL NUDGES IN THE POP GRIDS,
MAINLY TO MATCH OUR NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE, POPULATED WITH THE
CONSMODEL FOR MOST OF THE GRIDS.
&&
.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 4-5 FT. THE 0415Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH WHAT THE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR WATERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND, THEN REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER. AS FOR SEAS, THEY WILL
BUILD TODAY AS A POST-FRONTAL SWELL ENTERS THE WATERS. LEFT THE
SC.Y`S UNCHANGED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY THEN BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1015 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT
BY MIDWEEK. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH
POSSIBLE IMPACTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY RETURN COLD
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUED CONFIDENCE WITH HIGH-RES NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL
LATEST ISSUANCES OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE DECENT IN HANDLING THE
PRESENT CONDITIONS. WITH SOME PREFERENCE TO THE 18Z NAM / GFS...
THE NEAR-TERM UPDATE IS MAINLY A BLEND OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
ENERGY APPEARS TO BE RE-ORGANIZING AROUND THE MAIN LOW DEEPENING
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...
MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOWFLAKES...IS GOING
THROUGH A LULL PERIOD. NOW THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE STORM CENTER
OFF THE CAROLINAS TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT LIFTS NE AND PAST
NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING INTO MIDDAY HOURS SUNDAY.
KEEPING FOCUS ON FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING AROUND H6-8 COLLOCATED
WITH POTENTIAL VORTICITY...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...AM EXPECTING BANDING TO RE-EMERGE SE OF NEW ENGLAND AS THE
STORM CENTER TRACKS N...BUILDING BACK INTO E NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS
INCREASE WHILE BACKING NW ACROSS THE INTERIOR DRAWING COLD DRY AIR
TOWARDS THE STORM CENTER. LOOKING A GOOD DEFORMATION ZONE SETUP
BENEATH THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION.
AGAIN...THE CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST IS AS TO WHERE THIS BAND
WILL SETUP UP EXACTLY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTS ACROSS E NEW
ENGLAND...KEEPING AN EYE ON THE BOSTON METRO. BETWEEN THE 18Z NAM/
GFS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP...THERE ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO
BE SOME IMPACTS FELT.
WILL PREVAIL WITH THE GOING FORECAST...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FALLING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS
MAINLY AS ALL RAIN...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FALLS
OVER E/NE MA AND RI. WITH THE UNDERCUTTING COLD NW-AIR...WHILE
NOTING PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES...
THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY OF CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN TO WET
SNOW WITH POTENTIAL OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THOSE AREAS OF
MODERATE /PERHAPS HEAVY/ PRECIPITATION. CHANGE OVER OCCURRING AT
36-DEGREES...ACCUMULATIONS IF PRECIPITATION FALLS MODERATE TO
HEAVY. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW AN INCH AT THIS TIME.
CONCERNING WINDS...
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 58 MPH HAVE BEEN MEASURED ALONG THE COAST-
LINE OF SOUTH PLYMOUTH. EXPECT N/NE-WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE AROUND
45 TO 55 MPH INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE STORM CENTER
PRESENTLY OFF THE CAROLINAS INTENSIFIES TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK BY
SUNDAY MORNING...LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR 70 MPH JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING...
60 MPH. KEEP IN MIND THE ENTRENCHING COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE W
OVER THE MUCH WARMER SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER EASILY CAPABLE OF ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
TRANSFER OF FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR CAPE ANN...CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS...AND E/SE COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH THE STORM APPROACH AND PASSAGE...WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE NW AND INTENSIFY AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE W-E.
THE EXPECTATION OF A COLDER AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE...SHOULD ALSO SEE A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOP ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. ANTICIPATING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED FASTER GUSTS...ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...SECOND AREA OF RAIN
WILL BE OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEW ENG AND WILL BE ONGOING EARLY
SUN MORNING. MODELS SHOW A STRONG BANDING SIGNAL WITH ROBUST AREA
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MID LEVEL OMEGA OVER SE NEW ENG
WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUN MORNING. COLDER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT AND IF THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARD
ENOUGH THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS E MA AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO
THE PRECIP SHIELD AND IT IS POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. IN
FACT...IT MAY REMAIN DRY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS I95. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN
HEAVY RAIN ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL WET SNOW IN E MA.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING EASTERN MA AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY DEVELOP IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS...
THE PEAK OF THE WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING SUN MORNING ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 60+ MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OUTER CAPE AND ACK. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT MIXING
DURING SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS ALL
SNE. GFS IS MOST ROBUST WHILE NAM IS WEAKER. TAKING A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS WIND GUST ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SO WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA DURING SUNDAY.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION...THERE WILL BE LIMITED TEMP
RECOVERY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FACTORING IN THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- COLD AND BLUSTERY FOR THE EARLY WEEK
- BRIEF WARM-UP PRIOR TO A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT
- ANOTHER COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
- A RETURN TO COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
NOW THAT WE ARE IN IT TO WIN IT WITH THE ONCOMING STORM SYSTEM...
WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT AND BRIEF. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF.
AS THE STORM EXITS...EXPECT NW-WINDS TO DIMINISH. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING AN EARLY WEEK PERIOD OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP-FREEZES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E TOWARDS BERMUDA...RETURN S-FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF WARM-UP TO
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT SLIDES THOUGH THE REGION AROUND
MIDWEEK AND WILL SPECULATE UPON JUST SHOWERY WEATHER.
MAIN CONCERN SHIFTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN PACIFIC-ORIGIN
ENERGY THRU PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE-CONUS POTENTIALLY
INVOKES ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL LOW /THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
WITHIN THE ECMWF THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AND A GOOD SIGNAL WITHIN
ITS PARENT ENSEMBLE/. WIND...WAVE...AND PRECIPITATION-TYPE HAZARDS
COULD POSSIBLY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE AGAIN. CLOSE-OUT INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH FOLLOW-UP NW-WINDS...COLDER AIR...AND RETURN HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CYCLE CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH WET SNOW AT TIMES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
N-WIND GUSTS 40-45 KTS OVER E MA / CAPE-ISLANDS / S-COAST MA AND
RI. 25-35 KT N-WIND GUSTS FOR THE E / S INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS INTERIOR. HEAVY BAND OF
RAIN SETTING UP ACROSS E MA ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA/CAPE-ISLANDS.
COULD SEE MIXING WITH WET SNOW OVER NE MA POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS BOS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS
BACKING NW. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS OVER E MA / CAPE-ISLANDS /
S-COAST MA AND RI. 25-35 KT GUSTS FOR ALL OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR IMPROVING VFR W TO E...LINGERING LONGER OVER E MA / CAPE-
ISLANDS. EXPECTING ALL WEATHER TO CONCLUDE AS LATE AS EVENING.
NW-WINDS OVER ALL TERMINALS GUSTING 35-40 KTS. ISOLATED GUSTS
AROUND 45 KTS POSSIBLE.
KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE MORNING PUSH AS TO WHETHER A HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IMPACTS THE TERMINAL.
KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-WINDS DIMINISHING.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. RETURN SW-FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT LOW-END VFR CIGS LATE.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS. -SHRA POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
COULD SEE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM OF WHICH MAY
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS UPON THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
***DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM FOR MARINERS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY***
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
EXCEEDING 50 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AS A STORM
FROM THE CAROLINAS INTENSIFIES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. GALES AND
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE. SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER 20 FT OVER
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS OF THREATS ALONG THE
SHORES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO WEAKEN. EXPECT A GRADUAL DROP-
OFF OF HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS TURNING SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT GUSTS...PERHAPS WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5-FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS OTHERWISE CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
COULD SEE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM OF WHICH MAY
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS UPON THE WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING FROM
ABOUT 5 AM TO NOON.
WITH THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE /AROUND 7 AM/...COINCIDING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS /NORTH SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE UP TO 60 KT/...THOUGH A NORTH WIND WILL
LIMIT FETCH AND RESULTING WAVE GROWTH...SEAS WILL ALREADY BE AT
LEAST 15-20 FT 7 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS THE EASTERN MA OCEAN WATERS.
IN ADDITION A NORTH WIND STILL TRANSPORT WATER TO THE SHORELINE
VIA THE EKMAN TRANSPORT. FINALLY...COASTAL LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH
OF OUR LATITUDE 7 AM SUNDAY SO GOOD PRESSURE FALLS COUPLED WITH A
NORTH WIND WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST STORM SURGE. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS WILL INCREASE MODEL SURGE VALUES TO REFLECT ANOTHER STORM
SURGE OF 2-2.5 FT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GIVEN THE NORTH WIND TRAJECTORY ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP
TO 60 KT POSSIBLE CAPE COD AREA COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE
SOUTH OF BOSTON...HULL...SCITUATE AND ESPECIALLY SANDWICH HARBOR
ON CAPE COD FOR A MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR NANTUCKET GIVEN LESS SURGE/FETCH AND WAVE
ACTION. THUS WILL GO WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
AS FOR STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...6 HR PREDICTION ENDING AT 2 PM/18Z
TODAY THE ESTOFS IS PERFORMING A LITTLE BETTER/HIGHER THAN THE
ETSS. HOWEVER BOTH ARE ALMOST 50-PERCENT TOO LOW! THUS WE
INCREASED GUIDANCE BY A THIRD OR SO AS SURGE SOMETIMES CAN BE A
BIT HIGHER DURING LOW TIDE.
REGARDING WAVE HEIGHTS...WNA AND SWANNAM VERIFYING NICELY AT 18Z SO
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER FOR SUNDAY
MORNING/S HIGH TIDE INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS BY 20-PERCENT BASED ON
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELIVERED ON NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OF M50S.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ002>005-
008>012-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ006-013>018-020.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ019-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-019-021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
016-024.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232-255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-233>237-256.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
725 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT
BY MIDWEEK. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH
POSSIBLE IMPACTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY RETURN COLD
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
IN BREVITY...CONFIDENCE LIES WITH THE HIGH-RES NEAR-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH SOME PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE 18Z NAM / GFS SOLUTIONS.
FEEL PERHAPS THE 20Z HRRR IS ABOUT 3-HOURS OFF IN COMPARISON WITH
THE PRESENT SITUATION AND THE LATEST RAP-MODEL FORECAST.
VIA MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND EVALUATING THE LATEST RADAR RETURNS...
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING / DEFORMATION IS ONGOING SW-NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NW OF THE LOW SITUATED NEAR THE 40 N /
70 W BENCHMARK. RAP MODEL INDICATES A COLLOCATION OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WITH MID-LEVEL F-GEN AROUND H6-8. A H6-7 BAND IS EVIDENT
THROUGH CT INTO NE-MA...WITH THE H7-8 BANDING S OF LONG ISLAND.
IF THE RAP-MODEL IS CORRECT...AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES N...THE BANDING SIGNATURE SHOULD PIVOT MORE SSW-NNE AND
WAIVER WITH TIME AND DISSIPATES AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AND A PSEUDO DRY-SLOT FOLLOWS...THIS OCCURRING AROUND 3-6Z
/MIDNIGHT LOCAL/. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS LIFTS N THE H6-8 BANDING SIGNATURE RE-EMERGES ACROSS E
MA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
NOW HERE IS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. WHILE THERES GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST INTO MIDNIGHT...AS WE GO INTO THE MORNING THERE IS
A LOT OF SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE SECONDARY BAND WILL
EXACTLY SET-UP. YOU HAVE NW-WINDS UNDERCUTTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MODERATE...PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES...
INVOKING DYNAMICAL COOLING. WILL SPECULATE THAT WITH THE SECONDARY
BANDING MENTIONED EARLIER THAT RAIN WILL MIX OVER TO SNOW TOWARDS
SUNDAY MORNING. BELIEVE WET-SNOW DEVELOPS AROUND 36 DEGREES...
ACCUMULATES AT 34-DEGREES ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS HARD.
PRESENT SNOWFALL GRIDS HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS FOR THE
WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS WITH THE FIRST BAND...AND AGAIN
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NE MA...
PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE BOSTON METRO WITH THE SECOND BAND TOWARDS
MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
MODIFIED POP / QPF / SNOW GRIDS. WINDS AND TEMPERATURES /WHICH
ACCOUNT FOR DYNAMICAL COOLING/ REMAINED UNTOUCHED FROM THE PRIOR
FORECASTER. ENCOURAGE READERS TO ALSO FOLLOW WITH THE DISCUSSION
BELOW /BOTH NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM/ WHICH IS REALLY WELL-WRITTEN
CONVEYING JUST HOW HARD OF A SITUATION THIS IS TO FORECAST AND OUR
FORECAST THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT UP ACROSS SNE WITH DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BEST FORCING WILL
BE LIFTING TO THE NORTH WITH PSEUDO DRY SLOT MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE
PRECIP.
BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES OUT WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A
PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN MA THROUGH THE
MONADNOCKS IN S NH AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS FROM ABOVE. NAM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING AND SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES. GFS NOT QUITE AS COLD.
REALITY PROBABLY LIES IN BETWEEN. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS TIMING OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVING OUT AS WE ONLY HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING IF THE PRECIP CAN COME DOWN HARD
ENOUGH BEFORE IT DRIES OUT. WE THINK THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR AN
INCH OR 2 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT IN N MA AND S
NH...BUT IF THE PRECIP MOVES OUT JUST A FEW HOURS FASTER THERE
WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO ACCUM. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
INITIAL WAVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL AWAIT STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
AND MERGE WITH THIS SECOND LOW THAT LIFTS NE OFF THE NC/SC COAST...
WITH ONE STRONG CONSOLIDATED LOW TRACKING NEAR THE BENCHMARK SUN
MORNING. AFTER A LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING...A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR.
STRONG WINDS...
50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS ARE ALREADY RAMPING UP ALONG THE COAST WHERE
MIXING IS BEST DUE TO WARMER SST ENHANCING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 50 MPH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG
THE I95 CORRIDOR. AS SECOND LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT...LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR 60 KTS ACROSS E COASTAL MA TOWARD
12Z SUNDAY WHEN STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. EXPANDED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING TO COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY FOR CAPE ANN WHICH WILL
BE WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS AND FAVORABLE EXPOSURE IN N WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...SECOND AREA OF RAIN
WILL BE OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEW ENG AND WILL BE ONGOING EARLY
SUN MORNING. MODELS SHOW A STRONG BANDING SIGNAL WITH ROBUST AREA
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MID LEVEL OMEGA OVER SE NEW ENG
WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUN MORNING. COLDER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT AND IF THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARD
ENOUGH THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS E MA AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO
THE PRECIP SHIELD AND IT IS POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. IN
FACT...IT MAY REMAIN DRY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS I95. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN
HEAVY RAIN ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL WET SNOW IN E MA.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING EASTERN MA AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY DEVELOP IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS...
THE PEAK OF THE WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING SUN MORNING ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 60+ MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OUTER CAPE AND ACK. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT MIXING
DURING SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS ALL
SNE. GFS IS MOST ROBUST WHILE NAM IS WEAKER. TAKING A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS WIND GUST ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SO WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA DURING SUNDAY.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION...THERE WILL BE LIMITED TEMP
RECOVERY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FACTORING IN THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- COLD AND BLUSTERY FOR THE EARLY WEEK
- BRIEF WARM-UP PRIOR TO A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT
- ANOTHER COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
- A RETURN TO COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
NOW THAT WE ARE IN IT TO WIN IT WITH THE ONCOMING STORM SYSTEM...
WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT AND BRIEF. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF.
AS THE STORM EXITS...EXPECT NW-WINDS TO DIMINISH. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING AN EARLY WEEK PERIOD OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEEP-FREEZES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E TOWARDS BERMUDA...RETURN S-FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF WARM-UP TO
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT SLIDES THOUGH THE REGION AROUND
MIDWEEK AND WILL SPECULATE UPON JUST SHOWERY WEATHER.
MAIN CONCERN SHIFTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN PACIFIC-ORIGIN
ENERGY THRU PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE-CONUS POTENTIALLY
INVOKES ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL LOW /THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
WITHIN THE ECMWF THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AND A GOOD SIGNAL WITHIN
ITS PARENT ENSEMBLE/. WIND...WAVE...AND PRECIPITATION-TYPE HAZARDS
COULD POSSIBLY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE AGAIN. CLOSE-OUT INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH FOLLOW-UP NW-WINDS...COLDER AIR...AND RETURN HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CYCLE CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. GRADUALLY DISSIPATING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
BANDS OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. MIXING WITH WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS POSSIBLE /WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS/. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A LULL OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. N-WIND GUSTS 40-45 KTS OVER E MA / CAPE-ISLANDS /
S-COAST MA AND RI. 25-35 KT N-WIND GUSTS FOR THE E / S INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS INTERIOR. HEAVY BAND OF
RAIN SETTING UP ACROSS E MA ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA/CAPE-ISLANDS.
COULD SEE MIXING WITH WET SNOW OVER NE MA POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS BOS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS
BACKING NW. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS OVER E MA / CAPE-ISLANDS /
S-COAST MA AND RI. 25-35 KT GUSTS FOR ALL OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR IMPROVING VFR W TO E...LINGERING LONGER OVER E MA / CAPE-
ISLANDS. EXPECTING ALL WEATHER TO CONCLUDE AS LATE AS EVENING.
NW-WINDS OVER ALL TERMINALS GUSTING 35-40 KTS. ISOLATED GUSTS
AROUND 45 KTS POSSIBLE.
KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE MORNING PUSH AS TO WHETHER A HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IMPACTS THE TERMINAL.
KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-WINDS DIMINISHING.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. RETURN SW-FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT LOW-END VFR CIGS LATE.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS. -SHRA POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
COULD SEE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM OF WHICH MAY
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS UPON THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
***DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM FOR MARINERS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY***
WINDS ARE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT GUSTS TO
40-50 KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH
EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE WARM SST. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LIKELY
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KTS
POSSIBLE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AS SECOND LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WITH 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING.
GALES AND STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SAME LOCATIONS.
SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER 20 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
DURING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO WEAKEN. EXPECT A GRADUAL DROP-
OFF OF HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS TURNING SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT GUSTS...PERHAPS WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5-FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS OTHERWISE CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
COULD SEE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM OF WHICH MAY
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS UPON THE WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEW 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES ONSET OF STRONG WINDS BEGINS 5PM-8PM
TODAY AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ABOUT 5 AM TO NOON. FOR OUR FIRST HIGH TIDE/THIS
EVENING AROUND 7 PM...WINDS WILL BE MORE ONSHORE FROM THE NNE
HOWEVER DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN ONSET OF
STRONG WINDS IS 5-8 PM. WHILE THIS WILL YIELD A MODEST SURGE OF 2-
2.5 FT THIS EVENING WITH WAVE ACTION /12-18 FT/ SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
THUS WILL CONVERT THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO AN ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR INUNDATION/
FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE 2.0-2.5 FT STORM SURGE WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED WATER
LEVEL/STORM TIDE COMBINED WITH MODEST WAVE ACTION AND RUNUP TO
YIELD MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE INCLUDING PLUM
ISLAND AND SALISBURY MA.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE SUNDAY MORNING/S HIGH TIDE /AROUND 7
AM/...THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...ROUGHLY 5 AM TO
NOON SUNDAY. NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON VERY STRONG
NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH A LOW RISK OF GUSTS UP TO 60 KT
DURING THIS TIME! A NORTH WIND WILL LIMIT FETCH AND RESULTING WAVE
GROWTH...HOWEVER SEAS WILL ALREADY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15-20 FT 7 AM
TO 10 AM ACROSS THE EASTERN MA OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION A NORTH
WIND STILL TRANSPORT WATER TO THE SHORELINE VIA THE EKMAN TRANSPORT.
FINALLY...COASTAL LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF OUR LATITUDE 7 AM
SUNDAY SO GOOD PRESSURE FALLS COUPLED WITH A NORTH WIND WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST A MODEST STORM SURGE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE
MODEL SURGE VALUES TO REFLECT ANOTHER STORM SURGE OF 2-2.5 FT. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GIVEN THE NORTH WIND TRAJECTORY ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 KT
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AREA WILL UPGRADE TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SOUTH
OF BOSTON...HULL...SCITUATE AND ESPECIALLY SANDWICH HARBOR ON CAPE
COD FOR A MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION
SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR NANTUCKET GIVEN LESS SURGE/FETCH AND WAVE
ACTION. THUS WILL GO WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HERE.
AS FOR STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...6 HR PREDICTION ENDING AT 2 PM/18Z
TODAY THE ESTOFS IS PERFORMING A LITTLE BETTER/HIGHER THAN THE
ETSS. HOWEVER BOTH ARE ALMOST 50% PERCENT TOO LOW! THUS WE
INCREASED GUIDANCE BY A THIRD OR SO AS SURGE SOMETIMES CAN BE A
BIT HIGHER DURING LOW TIDE.
REGARDING WAVE HEIGHTS...WNA AND SWANNAM VERIFYING NICELY AT 18Z SO
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER FOR SUNDAY
MORNING/S HIGH TIDE INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS BY 20% PERCENT BASED ON
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELIVERED ON NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OF M50S.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ002>005-
008>012-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ006-013>018-020.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ019-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ019-021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
016-024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232-255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-233>237-256.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
454 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.
WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD
NEW JERSEY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.
COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MAIN TWO FEATURES IN THE TAFS ARE THE STEADY MVFR RAIN AND
GUSTY N-NE FLOW WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE LATTER
HALF OF TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES
MORE STEADY AND THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. RAIN COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE PERIODIC IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTH.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS.
GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...JM/MPS
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.
WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD
NEW JERSEY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.
COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT...LOWERING
TO 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
EVENING...AND CONDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDS. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO IFR
SOMETIME FROM 12Z-18Z SATURDAY IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.
NE WINDS 8-12 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
TO 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND CONDS
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LATE SATURDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS.
GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A SECONDARY INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY RACING SOUTHWARD DOWN CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF MKE. OVERALL IT APPEARS
THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS (BY 1630Z). HOWEVER...I AM ALSO
CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO THROUGH LATE MORNING. IN FACT...SOME OF THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY IS ALREADY INDICATING SOME BANDS OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY. IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...AND WIND SPEEDS
COULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENT WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH OBSERVATION TRENDS...AND HANDLE THIS SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA WITH GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS AT THIS TIME. IT
DOES APPEAR THIS INITIAL BURST OF SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
LIVED ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WE HAVE
NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO EXPAND THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY AND BURST OF SNOW...HI RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREAS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE WINTER HEADLINE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON TRYING TO WORK MORE WEST INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS. SOME
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL EFFECT AREAS
NEAR...OR EVEN ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA STATE LINE....AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF CHICAGO AS WELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...AND UNCERTAINTY STILL INHERENT IN WHERE ANY LAKE EFFECT
BAND...OR BANDS WILL SET UP...I WOULD LIKE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE BEFORE PUSHING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND WINTER
HEADLINES FARTHER WEST.
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...I WILL LIKELY
ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FOR AREAS A BIT FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS BASED ON REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW...AND
RADAR TRENDS.
KJB
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER
LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A HEALTHY TEMP DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN CWA
AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD SOUTHEAST. STRONG NNW WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD AIR AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMPACT VORT AND REALLY THE HEART OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS DIVING SSE TOWARD
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WOULD FULLY
ANTICIPATE THESE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS AND KNOCK VSBY DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. AS THE VORT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST LOOK FOR THE NON-LAKE DRIVEN PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING
NORTHERN CWA AND LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE VORT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
RESULTANT STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO
-33C AND H7 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LAKE
BEHIND THIS VORT BECOME EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET GOING IN ERNEST BEHIND THIS
VORT AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TODAY APPROACH 20K FT...NEAR THE
-30C LEVEL...WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS (SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AND ICE) IN THE CLOUDS WITHIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE AND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT P-TYPE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX...AND ALL SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FARTHER INLAND STANDS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR TODAY IS HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OR A SINGLE
INTENSE BAND. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL TIME OF DAY AM CONCERNED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED/SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MULTIPLE
BANDS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE TIME OF STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. IF A MORE ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES
FORM...THE STRONG FLOW AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAKING IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. IF SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH THEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS WOULD
BECOME MORE OF A MOOT POINT WITH RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING
IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES IN SPOTS TODAY. THE WIND
WILL BE WHIPPING THE SNOW AROUND REGARDLESS SO UNDERNEATH ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY MISERABLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS/SIDEWALKS TODAY. LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY LOOK TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY WITH THE
PRECIP LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INLAND TO JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CLIP SE COOK AND EASTERN WILL WITH LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP TODAY WHICH ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THERE.
THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SEND THE
LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO EASTERN COOK/EASTERN WILL/WESTERN LAKE IN (AND
EVEN POINTS SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCED AREAS
DROPPING WHICH WOULD BOTH TEND TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF A DOMINANT LAKE
EFFECT BAND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN 23Z AND ABOUT
04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE INSTABILITY (WHILE LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY) WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 10K FT AND LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES >20C. DOES APPEARS A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND
EASTERN WILL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OPTED NOT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
AND INSTEAD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS. BY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY END SATURDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGHER POPS LATER IN TIME
AS LAKE EFFECT RARELY WINDS DOWN AS QUICKLY AS MODEL PROGGED
PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT WILL. WORTH NOTING THAT BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH SAT MORNING THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPS DROP BELOW -12C
MEANING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS CONTAINING ICE NUCLEI FOR SNOW WILL
BE LOW...SO DESPITE LOWER TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
TRANSITIONED P-TYPE BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.
FINALLY...HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AS IS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOCATIONS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH A GOOD BET NOTHING WOULD BE GAINED FROM MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE LAKE LOOKS
LIKELY TO VERIFY WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 58 MPH
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TODAY AND REALLY NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HAVING A WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE...SO AM GOING TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE
AREAS.
HEADLINES ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS AND HEADACHE. WINTER WX ADVISORY
COVERS WIND AND SNOW...BUT IN ORDER TO GO WITH WARNING FOR WIND
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN INDIANA WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH REALLY DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT. AFTER
MUCH HEMMING AND HAWING AND INTERNAL COORDINATION HAVE OPTED TO
CHANGE THE WINTER WX ADV TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK...PORTER...AND LAKE IN. MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY BY EARLY EVENING FOR
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PERIODS OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TEMPORARY SNOW SHOWERS NAMELY AT MDW.
* VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PROBABLE TO SHIFT DUE NORTH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SPORADIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.
* CIGS POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 2000-3000 FT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD FURTHER AFFECT MDW THIS EVE.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY STEADY AT 340-350 AT ORD AND
MDW. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN AND THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE DUE NORTH.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY LATER FOR DUE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TAF. WIND SPEED
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONE UPPER
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA IS DEPARTING WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH THE NEXT WAVE IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH HAS BEEN REDUCING VSBY
TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. EXPECT A 1-2 HR
WINDOW OF -SHSN AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. VARIABLE
MVFR-VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
STEADIER VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WEST.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT TO SEE A SURGE IN GUSTS AT THAT TIME. 35
TO 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN HOW
FREQUENTLY 40 KT MAY BE REACHED. IT APPEARS THAT MID MORNING MAY
BE ONE POTENTIALLY PRIME PERIOD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE/PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY FAVORED TIME BEING MID AFTERNOON IF SKIES CAN
SCATTER. IT MAY BE THAT AN OCCASIONAL 40 KT GUST OCCURS AT ANY
POINT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE
MORNING AND FOCUS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH GYY POSSIBLY BEING
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE INITIALLY BUT LIKELY GETTING INTO THE PRIME
BANDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FAIRLY
WARM LAKE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS FAVORED TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF VERY
INTENSE BANDING CAN OCCUR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ENHANCE THE ALL SNOW POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT IFR VSBY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT TIMES BUT THERE ARE FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE PRECIP. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST 40-45 KT WITH
50 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MIDDAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
IL/IN STATE LINE AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO IMPACT MDW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE GRASS. SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR MDW. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DETAILS
THIS EVENING AT MDW/GYY AND EVEN ORD ARE LIKELY.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW ON IF IFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM THAT THEY WILL STAY EAST OF ORD.
* HIGH IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING DUE NORTH BUT LOW IN EXACT
TIMING. HIGH IN WIND SPEEDS AND THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35 KT
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL TONIGHT AT MDW...LOW
AT ORD.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
A MAJOR WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IS
THE KEY TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MID MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD DOWN THE LAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND 50 KT FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION HOLDING AT GALES...THOUGH A FEW
50 KT GUSTS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME 55 KT GUSTS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND STRONG
MIXING OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 20 FEET BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 18-23 FT PREVAILING WAVES IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING AND TREND A BIT
NORTHEASTERLY. SHOULD SEE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY SO WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
EXISTING GALE AND STORM WARNINGS AS-IS.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY PUSH 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN LET UP NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATER TUESDAY AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 10
PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
Cold front has moved through the area in the overnight hours, with
colder air and blustery winds. North/northwesterly winds up to and
in excess of 25 mph expected this afternoon, gusting to 30-35 mph.
Just shy of advisory criteria for the forecast area, but enough to
drop the wind chills into the 20s and 30s. Forecast on track
across the board. Early morning echos moving along the I-74
corridor btwn BMI and CMI have moved out to the east. Another
round of light precip (possibly a ra/sn mix) along the northern
half of the IL/IN border this afternoon as winds become
increasingly northerly and a fetch off of Lake Michigan enhances
some lake effect...and remnants may reach into the extreme east. Some
minor tweaks here and there in the forecast, and pulling the
morning wording...but overall, forecast looks good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.
Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.
Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.
Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.
More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A brief period of MVFR clouds around 2k FT will affect DEC and CMI
through 13-14z before mixing lifts the cloud deck into the VFR
range. Then VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the TAF
forecast. NW winds will increase early this morning with sustained
20-25kt and gusts to near 40kt at times by 16-17z.
The leading edge of a strong shortwave aloft could trigger a few
rain or snow showers between 14z and 18z for the northern taf
sights of PIA/BMI/CMI. Any snow would melt as it falls. Otherwise,
precipitation should be minimal at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocumulus should
begin to decrease in coverage and affect mainly areas east of I55
by afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level
shortwave. Skies should become clear even over eastern areas
after 00z tonight. Surface winds will gradually diminish,
especially the gusts, toward evening with sustained winds of
12-15 kts after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
922 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER
LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A HEALTHY TEMP DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN CWA
AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD SOUTHEAST. STRONG NNW WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD AIR AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMPACT VORT AND REALLY THE HEART OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS DIVING SSE TOWARD
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WOULD FULLY
ANTICIPATE THESE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS AND KNOCK VSBY DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. AS THE VORT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST LOOK FOR THE NON-LAKE DRIVEN PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING
NORTHERN CWA AND LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE VORT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
RESULTANT STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO
-33C AND H7 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LAKE
BEHIND THIS VORT BECOME EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET GOING IN ERNEST BEHIND THIS
VORT AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TODAY APPROACH 20K FT...NEAR THE
-30C LEVEL...WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS (SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AND ICE) IN THE CLOUDS WITHIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE AND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT P-TYPE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX...AND ALL SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FARTHER INLAND STANDS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR TODAY IS HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OR A SINGLE
INTENSE BAND. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL TIME OF DAY AM CONCERNED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED/SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MULTIPLE
BANDS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE TIME OF STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. IF A MORE ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES
FORM...THE STRONG FLOW AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAKING IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. IF SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH THEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS WOULD
BECOME MORE OF A MOOT POINT WITH RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING
IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES IN SPOTS TODAY. THE WIND
WILL BE WHIPPING THE SNOW AROUND REGARDLESS SO UNDERNEATH ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY MISERABLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS/SIDEWALKS TODAY. LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY LOOK TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY WITH THE
PRECIP LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INLAND TO JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CLIP SE COOK AND EASTERN WILL WITH LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP TODAY WHICH ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THERE.
THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SEND THE
LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO EASTERN COOK/EASTERN WILL/WESTERN LAKE IN (AND
EVEN POINTS SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCED AREAS
DROPPING WHICH WOULD BOTH TEND TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF A DOMINANT LAKE
EFFECT BAND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN 23Z AND ABOUT
04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE INSTABILITY (WHILE LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY) WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 10K FT AND LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES >20C. DOES APPEARS A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND
EASTERN WILL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OPTED NOT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
AND INSTEAD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS. BY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY END SATURDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGHER POPS LATER IN TIME
AS LAKE EFFECT RARELY WINDS DOWN AS QUICKLY AS MODEL PROGGED
PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT WILL. WORTH NOTING THAT BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH SAT MORNING THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPS DROP BELOW -12C
MEANING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS CONTAINING ICE NUCLEI FOR SNOW WILL
BE LOW...SO DESPITE LOWER TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
TRANSITIONED P-TYPE BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.
FINALLY...HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AS IS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOCATIONS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH A GOOD BET NOTHING WOULD BE GAINED FROM MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE LAKE LOOKS
LIKELY TO VERIFY WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 58 MPH
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TODAY AND REALLY NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HAVING A WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE...SO AM GOING TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE
AREAS.
HEADLINES ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS AND HEADACHE. WINTER WX ADVISORY
COVERS WIND AND SNOW...BUT IN ORDER TO GO WITH WARNING FOR WIND
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN INDIANA WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH REALLY DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT. AFTER
MUCH HEMMING AND HAWING AND INTERNAL COORDINATION HAVE OPTED TO
CHANGE THE WINTER WX ADV TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK...PORTER...AND LAKE IN. MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY BY EARLY EVENING FOR
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH...MUCH QUIETER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. SLOW
MOVING FRONT COULD BRING A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* OFF AND ON FLURRIES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME TEMPORARY SNOW SHOWERS NAMELY AT MDW.
* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD 16Z-17Z WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 KT. GUST SPEEDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND 40 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE
SPORADIC.
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MDW FROM EARLY EVENING
ONWARD.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY STEADY AT 340-350 AT ORD AND
MDW. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN AND THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE DUE NORTH.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY LATER FOR DUE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TAF. WIND SPEED
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONE UPPER
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA IS DEPARTING WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH THE NEXT WAVE IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH HAS BEEN REDUCING VSBY
TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. EXPECT A 1-2 HR
WINDOW OF -SHSN AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. VARIABLE
MVFR-VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
STEADIER VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WEST.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT TO SEE A SURGE IN GUSTS AT THAT TIME. 35
TO 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN HOW
FREQUENTLY 40 KT MAY BE REACHED. IT APPEARS THAT MID MORNING MAY
BE ONE POTENTIALLY PRIME PERIOD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE/PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY FAVORED TIME BEING MID AFTERNOON IF SKIES CAN
SCATTER. IT MAY BE THAT AN OCCASIONAL 40 KT GUST OCCURS AT ANY
POINT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE
MORNING AND FOCUS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH GYY POSSIBLY BEING
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE INITIALLY BUT LIKELY GETTING INTO THE PRIME
BANDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FAIRLY
WARM LAKE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS FAVORED TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF VERY
INTENSE BANDING CAN OCCUR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ENHANCE THE ALL SNOW POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT IFR VSBY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT TIMES BUT THERE ARE FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE PRECIP. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST 40-45 KT WITH
50 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MIDDAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
IL/IN STATE LINE AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO IMPACT MDW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE GRASS. SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR MDW. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DETAILS
THIS EVENING AT MDW/GYY AND EVEN ORD ARE LIKELY.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* LOW ON IF IFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM THAT THEY WILL STAY EAST OF ORD.
* HIGH IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING DUE NORTH AND MEDIUM IN TIMING.
HIGH IN WIND SPEEDS AND THAT ANY GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE
TEMPORARY.
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIGS. HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT
AT ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL TONIGHT AT MDW...LOW
AT ORD.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
A MAJOR WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IS
THE KEY TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MID MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD DOWN THE LAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND 50 KT FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION HOLDING AT GALES...THOUGH A FEW
50 KT GUSTS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME 55 KT GUSTS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND STRONG
MIXING OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 20 FEET BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 18-23 FT PREVAILING WAVES IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING AND TREND A BIT
NORTHEASTERLY. SHOULD SEE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY SO WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
EXISTING GALE AND STORM WARNINGS AS-IS.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY PUSH 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN LET UP NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATER TUESDAY AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 10
PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.
Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.
Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.
Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.
More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A brief period of MVFR clouds around 2k FT will affect DEC and CMI
through 13-14z before mixing lifts the cloud deck into the VFR
range. Then VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the TAF
forecast. NW winds will increase early this morning with sustained
20-25kt and gusts to near 40kt at times by 16-17z.
The leading edge of a strong shortwave aloft could trigger a few
rain or snow showers between 14z and 18z for the northern taf
sights of PIA/BMI/CMI. Any snow would melt as it falls. Otherwise,
precipitation should be minimal at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocumulus should
begin to decrease in coverage and affect mainly areas east of I55
by afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level
shortwave. Skies should become clear even over eastern areas
after 00z tonight. Surface winds will gradually diminish,
especially the gusts, toward evening with sustained winds of
12-15 kts after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
422 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER
LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A HEALTHY TEMP DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN CWA
AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD SOUTHEAST. STRONG NNW WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD AIR AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMPACT VORT AND REALLY THE HEART OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS DIVING SSE TOWARD
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WOULD FULLY
ANTICIPATE THESE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS AND KNOCK VSBY DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. AS THE VORT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST LOOK FOR THE NON-LAKE DRIVEN PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING
NORTHERN CWA AND LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE VORT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
RESULTANT STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO
-33C AND H7 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LAKE
BEHIND THIS VORT BECOME EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET GOING IN ERNEST BEHIND THIS
VORT AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TODAY APPROACH 20K FT...NEAR THE
-30C LEVEL...WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS (SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AND ICE) IN THE CLOUDS WITHIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE AND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT P-TYPE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX...AND ALL SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FARTHER INLAND STANDS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR TODAY IS HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OR A SINGLE
INTENSE BAND. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL TIME OF DAY AM CONCERNED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED/SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MULTIPLE
BANDS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE TIME OF STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. IF A MORE ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES
FORM...THE STRONG FLOW AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAKING IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. IF SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH THEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS WOULD
BECOME MORE OF A MOOT POINT WITH RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING
IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES IN SPOTS TODAY. THE WIND
WILL BE WHIPPING THE SNOW AROUND REGARDLESS SO UNDERNEATH ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY MISERABLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS/SIDEWALKS TODAY. LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY LOOK TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY WITH THE
PRECIP LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INLAND TO JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CLIP SE COOK AND EASTERN WILL WITH LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP TODAY WHICH ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THERE.
THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SEND THE
LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO EASTERN COOK/EASTERN WILL/WESTERN LAKE IN (AND
EVEN POINTS SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCED AREAS
DROPPING WHICH WOULD BOTH TEND TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF A DOMINANT LAKE
EFFECT BAND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN 23Z AND ABOUT
04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE INSTABILITY (WHILE LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY) WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 10K FT AND LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES >20C. DOES APPEARS A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND
EASTERN WILL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OPTED NOT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
AND INSTEAD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS. BY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY END SATURDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGHER POPS LATER IN TIME
AS LAKE EFFECT RARELY WINDS DOWN AS QUICKLY AS MODEL PROGGED
PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT WILL. WORTH NOTING THAT BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH SAT MORNING THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPS DROP BELOW -12C
MEANING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS CONTAINING ICE NUCLEI FOR SNOW WILL
BE LOW...SO DESPITE LOWER TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
TRANSITIONED P-TYPE BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.
FINALLY...HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AS IS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOCATIONS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH A GOOD BET NOTHING WOULD BE GAINED FROM MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE LAKE LOOKS
LIKELY TO VERIFY WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 58 MPH
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TODAY AND REALLY NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HAVING A WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE...SO AM GOING TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE
AREAS.
HEADLINES ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS AND HEADACHE. WINTER WX ADVISORY
COVERS WIND AND SNOW...BUT IN ORDER TO GO WITH WARNING FOR WIND
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN INDIANA WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH REALLY DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT. AFTER
MUCH HEMMING AND HAWING AND INTERNAL COORDINATION HAVE OPTED TO
CHANGE THE WINTER WX ADV TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK...PORTER...AND LAKE IN. MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY BY EARLY EVENING FOR
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH...MUCH QUIETER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. SLOW
MOVING FRONT COULD BRING A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK. BRIEF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE.
* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT. NOT CLEAR ON FREQUENCY OF 40 KT GUSTS.
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MDW FROM EARLY EVENING
ONWARD.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWEST WITH GUST FREQUENCY/INTENSITY PICKING
UP. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH ONE UPPER WAVE. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND GENERATING BANDS OF SNOW AS COLDER
AIR SPILLS IN. HAVE HIT SNOW SHOWER MENTION A LITTLE HARDER FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z OR SO. BRIEF IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW SITES HAVING REPORTED ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO 3 SM
UPSTREAM. SUSPECT THAT MANY SITES HAVE BEEN TO 2-3SM OR LOWER BUT
DURATION WAS TOO BRIEF TO MAKE IT INTO THE TRANSMITTED OB. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS BUT VSBY COULD
BE BRIEFLY REDUCED LOWER THAN WHAT THE TAFS CURRENTLY SHOW. GUST
MAGNITUDE/FREQUENCY REMAIN A CHALLENGE ESPECIALLY AT ORD/MDW GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT PEAK GUSTS.
FROM 06Z...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
HURON TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TRAILING IT. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWEST
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT 06Z AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE FIRST NOW BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS. THE NEXT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT BRINGING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS WITH A BETTER DEFINED WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AREAS
OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ARE SEEING IFR SNOW THIS HOUR BUT THESE
HEAVIER BURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVIER BURST OF NON-ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT ORD/MDW/GYY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL VSBY
RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
WINDS FURTHER INCREASE BEHIND THIS SNOW PRODUCING WAVE WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FREQUENT THAT 40 KT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL. AM THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO SEPARATE WINDOWS WHERE 40 KT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY...ONE BEING MID/LATE MORNING BEHIND THE SNOW PRODUCING WAVE
AND THE OTHER BEING MID AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SCATTER. WITH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN 40 KT FREQUENCY ON THE LOW
SIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS DURATION FOR NOW BUT WILL ATTEMPT
TO REFINE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. GYY LOOKS TO BE
IN LINE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF ALL SNOW
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
CONDITIONS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE. MAY NEED TO
INDICATE SUB 1SM VSBY IN MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. GYY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE AND 45+ KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT MAY BEGIN
TO TRANSITION WESTWARD INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT SO MDW AND
POSSIBLY ORD COULD BE IN LINE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT MDW THIS EVENING BUT LEAVE
ORD DRY FOR NOW.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF BRIEF IFR VSBY
WILL OCCUR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND IN GUSTS
REACHING 35-37 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SOME 40 KT GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENCY AND BEST TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
AT ORD...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT MDW.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
A MAJOR WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IS
THE KEY TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MID MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD DOWN THE LAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND 50 KT FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION HOLDING AT GALES...THOUGH A FEW
50 KT GUSTS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME 55 KT GUSTS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND STRONG
MIXING OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 20 FEET BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 18-23 FT PREVAILING WAVES IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING AND TREND A BIT
NORTHEASTERLY. SHOULD SEE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY SO WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
EXISTING GALE AND STORM WARNINGS AS-IS.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY PUSH 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN LET UP NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATER TUESDAY AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ014...10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033...8 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...8 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.
Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.
Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.
Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.
More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR cigs in the
08z-12z time frame as a strong cold front tracks across the area.
Once the front shifts thru the area, strong northerly winds are
expected thru much of the day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to
30 kts with a few gusts around 35 kts at times. With the fropa, we
may see some scattered rain showers with the cigs lowering to
MVFR and a low probability for a brief period of IFR cigs with
any bands of rain that persist. Satellite data indicating cigs
around 2500 to 3500 feet north of the cold front over parts of
northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. Latest HRRR forecast indicates
the stratocumulus should begin to decrease in coverage and affect
mainly areas east of I55 by afternoon as subsidence develops in the
wake of the upper level shortwave. Surface winds will gradually
diminish, especially the gusts, towards evening with sustained winds
of 10 kts or less after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
113 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
921 PM
MID-EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR REFINEMENTS TO POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...HAVE BUMPED QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA...
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS STILL
REMAIN A FEW HOURS AWAY FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH
STRENGTHENING GUSTS MORE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
SPREADS IN...AND HAVE LARGELY BASED HOURLY POP TRENDS ALONG THESE
TRENDS.
ALL HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO CHANGES
IN EXPECTATIONS OF THE VERY GUSTY WINDS...AND THE RESULTING LARGE
WAVES AND LAKESHORE FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. BECOMING A
BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND EVEN PORTIONS
OF THE IL LAKE SHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. REALLY IMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WITH COLD AIR OVER WARM LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE. ALLOWING FOR LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S F...LAKE-850 HPA DELTA T APPROACHES 20
DEG C DURING THE PERIOD AND YIELDS LAKE-INDUCED FORECAST CAPES UP TO
1200 J/KG AND INVERSION LEVELS ABOVE 15 KFT. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR...AND ITEM OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY...IS THE WARMTH OF
THE WATER/SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS SUPPLIED BY THE LONG FETCH OVER
WARM WATERS. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDER...THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY MAY WELL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
WARM LOW LEVELS AND PRODUCE ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE INCREASED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT TO THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...AND HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ADVISORY WSW TEXT. IF COLUMN IS ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR
LONG DURATION +SN/TSSN...COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES MORE IN SOME SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THOUGH INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT NORTHEAST...EXPECT LESS INTENSE RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS
TO IMPINGE UPON PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE AND STATELINE AREAS AS
WELL.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
332 PM CDT...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND
THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
WE ARE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE...PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN INDIANA...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AND OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...CURRENT CENTERED ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTHWEST...A RATHER
STOUT 1036 MB HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG NORTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEAD TO A QUICK RAMP UP OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
MEAN MIXING LAYER WIND SPEEDS COULD TOP 40 KT ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE LAKE...MEANING WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY REACH THIS MAGNITUDE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS
DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COULD EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND
50 KT WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON HALLOWEEN...THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
AS LARGE BATTERING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT APPEAR LIKELY...AND AS
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...LAKE LEVELS ARE ABOUT 2 FT
HIGHER THAN PAST YEARS...WHICH COULD MAKE THE IMPACTS OF THESE WAVES
HIGHER THEN SIMILAR WAVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STRONG WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF MY CWA. THIS
INCLUDES AREAS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARVARD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANKAKEE AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA...AS WELL AS
PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND ALSO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 10
PM THIS EVENING...AND BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS INITIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DRYING OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND STAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE OF A TRUE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. A COLD AIRMASS FEATURING -7 DEGREE C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A 53F (11.7C)
DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURE AT THE SOUTH BUOY. THEREFORE...DELTA T`S
SHOULD END UP VERY FAVORABLE AROUND 19 DEGREES C. IN ADDITION...DEEP
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
LIKELY TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 16,000 FT AGL. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES LIKELY TO BE MORE THAN DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH THE -10 TO
-20 LAYER TO RESULT IN GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND COULD BEGIN TO SET UP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL GET THIS LAKE EFFECT
BANDING. SOME HAVE HINTED IN A FARTHER WEST BAND...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT MORE OF THE CHICAGO AREA. HOWEVER...I THINK AT THIS POINT
AREAS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE MORE FAVORED...WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY DUE NORTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTING UP OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT PORTER AND LAKE INDIANA WILL BE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS...IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT THIS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD BE
DRIVEN WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
MUCH OF JASPER AND PORTER COUNTIES AS WELL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH...AS
SOME WARMER AIR MOVING OFF THE LAKE SHOULD MAKE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVIER PRECIP RATES...IT IS VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT ENHANCED DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN A COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WOULD HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...THOUGH EVEN AREAS ALONG THE LAKE COULD CHANGE
OVER/MIX WITH SNOW. OVERALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (POSSIBLY A FEW
INCHES IN SOME AREAS) ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
4 NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES. IF...HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW DOES NOT PAN OUT AS CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS...WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD
THEN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THEREFORE...IN SPITE OF THE
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN CHANGE OVERS TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL...WE FEEL AT THIS POINT...TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION...AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY SNOW
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
TO GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CRASH IN A HURRY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THEREFORE...ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT
GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT AND COME TO AN
END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S AT BEST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
* FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK.
* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT. NOT CLEAR ON FREQUENCY OF 40 KT GUSTS.
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MDW EARLY EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
HURON TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TRAILING IT. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWEST
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT 06Z AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE FIRST NOW BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS. THE NEXT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT BRINGING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS WITH A BETTER DEFINED WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AREAS
OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ARE SEEING IFR SNOW THIS HOUR BUT THESE
HEAVIER BURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVIER BURST OF NON-ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT ORD/MDW/GYY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL VSBY
RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
WINDS FURTHER INCREASE BEHIND THIS SNOW PRODUCING WAVE WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FREQUENT THAT 40 KT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL. AM THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO SEPARATE WINDOWS WHERE 40 KT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY...ONE BEING MID/LATE MORNING BEHIND THE SNOW PRODUCING WAVE
AND THE OTHER BEING MID AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SCATTER. WITH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN 40 KT FREQUENCY ON THE LOW
SIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS DURATION FOR NOW BUT WILL ATTEMPT
TO REFINE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. GYY LOOKS TO BE
IN LINE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF ALL SNOW
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
CONDITIONS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE. MAY NEED TO
INDICATE SUB 1SM VSBY IN MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. GYY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE AND 45+ KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT MAY BEGIN
TO TRANSITION WESTWARD INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT SO MDW AND
POSSIBLY ORD COULD BE IN LINE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT MDW THIS EVENING BUT LEAVE
ORD DRY FOR NOW.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION/INTENSITY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND IN GUSTS
REACHING 35-37 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SOME 40 KT GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENCY AND BEST TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE
AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A FAVORABLE AND ANOMALOUS SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER AIDED
BY THE WARM WATERS/EXTREME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE REGULAR HIGHER END
STORM FORCE GUSTS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN THE LAKE RAPIDLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SYNC WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A RAMP UP IN NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF STORM FORCE TO 50 AND POSSIBLY EVEN 55 KT
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...AND AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
THE WAVE MAXIMUM OF OVER 20 FOOTERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EVOLVE SOUTHWARD
REACHING THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WAVES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LAKE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ014...7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM
FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ033...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ019...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY
TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Initial shortwave pushing across west central Illinois has brought
about some scattered showers this evening over most of our area.
A second and more potent upper wave seen on the water vapor loop
streaming south over the upper Great Lakes and that feature will
deepen in over the lower lakes tomorrow morning ushering much
colder air and strong northerly winds to the region. First band
of rain will shift into eastern and southeast Illinois this
evening with a second band of rain forecast to shift southeast
into our area along the quick moving cold front after midnight. 3
hourly pressure rises of 4 to 6 mb streaking southeast along the
cold front to our northwest and as the upper feature deepens in
over the lower lakes region, we should see some rather significant
pres rises develop just to our north and west which should bring
in the strong winds around sunrise across the north and during the
morning to the south.
Will continue to hold on to the POPs over most of the area until
that second wave tracks thru the area by Friday morning, with rain
chances then confined to far east and southeast Illinois. RAP and
HRRR indicating the potential for gusts of 40 to 45 mph tomorrow
morning into the afternoon hours across most of the area coupled
with steady or slowly falling temperatures. Wind chill readings
for the trick or treaters will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
tomorrow evening!
Have already sent out an updated ZFP to address the more widespread
nature of the precip earlier in the evening and will have another
update out by 900 pm to adjust the late evening wording.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Two waves impacting the short term. The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region. Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature. Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip. Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF. As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.
Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.
Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR cigs in the
08z-12z time frame as a strong cold front tracks across the area.
Once the front shifts thru the area, strong northerly winds are
expected thru much of the day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to
30 kts with a few gusts around 35 kts at times. With the fropa, we
may see some scattered rain showers with the cigs lowering to
MVFR and a low probability for a brief period of IFR cigs with
any bands of rain that persist. Satellite data indicating cigs
around 2500 to 3500 feet north of the cold front over parts of
northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. Latest HRRR forecast indicates
the stratocumulus should begin to decrease in coverage and affect
mainly areas east of I55 by afternoon as subsidence develops in the
wake of the upper level shortwave. Surface winds will gradually
diminish, especially the gusts, towards evening with sustained winds
of 10 kts or less after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAD TO
INCREASE THE POPS SOUTH OF I80 AS SOME PRECIP WAS RECORDED AT IOWA
CITY. CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND SHOULD
BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW SPRINKLES MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I80 FOR
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AS A RESULT...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NW AREA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORTS THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT
THE WFO DVN WE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE SUN
WAS SHINING IN OUR WESTERN AND SW CWA...BUT MORE CLOUDS WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER AND VERY WINDY THROUGH HALLOWEEN.
TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THEN TO FOLLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. WE WILL
NEED TO TALK ABOUT COLD WIND CHILLS AS THEY DROP TO 10 TO 15 NW TO
THE LOWER 20S SE BY SUNRISE.
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...THIS DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
TIGHT GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. YOU WILL NEED TO REALLY BUNDLE UP
AS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN THE MORNING WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
WITH 100 PERCENT CERTAINTY...WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD IN OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH RESPECT TO PUBLIC IMPACT ON TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES...BUT WILL NOW ACTIVATE OUR LAST REMAINING COUNTIES THAT
ARE YET TO HAVE A FREEZE EVENT. OUR SOUTHERNMOST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL BE IN A FREEZE WARNING
FOR FRIDAY MID EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAPSIPINICON VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S. EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROCK RIVER
VALLEY SITES INCLUDING MOLINE TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WHILE WESTERN SITES ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
RIDGE SHIFT EAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 12 MPH EAST TO 18 MPH WEST...WITH GUST OF
20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN OTHER WORDS...SATURDAYS COLD SUNSHINE MAY
BE THE MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND DAY.
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK UP THROUGH THIS DEEP FLOW...AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVES INTO IOWA
MONDAY...THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE AN ACTIVE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE CANADIAN IS MOST PHASED WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LEAST PHASED AND MOST
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE...AND MAY BE THE BEST FIT FOR
NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CHANCE MONDAY
FOR NOW...AND ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
CONTINUED NOW INTO TUESDAY EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PHASING IS MORE
CERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE POPS WILL NARROW INTO A MORE TIGHT
WINDOW OF TIME...BUT FOR NOW ARE OVER 3 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN ZONAL
FLOW WITH SYSTEM MAINLY PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY NOW FOR TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT CID WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. AFTER THAT CONCERN TOMORROW IS WITH THE HIGH WINDS. WINDS
FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OR TWO ABOVE 30 KTS. CROSSWINDS
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT SITES WITHOUT A NORTH TO SOUTH RUNWAY
STRUCTURE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRIER THAN COMPARED TO ITS 00Z COUNTERPART, AND MOST
OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT COULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
ALSO TO BLEND IN WITH THE DAYS 4-7 SOLUTION. THE BEST PLACE FOR THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TO THE WEST,
LOCATIONS MAY BE SHORT CHANGED ON PRECIP IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES AND THERE
IS TOO MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM ALONG WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
BEYOND MONDAY, WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER
AIR MASS TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60. AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WILL SEE CONTINUED MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE SUPERBLEND
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN A WEEK FROM NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE LOCATION IS FORECAST
FAIRLY FAR SOUTH, SO THE LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 30 56 42 70 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 31 62 42 75 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 39 66 44 76 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 33 63 39 73 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 27 53 42 71 / 0 0 0 10
P28 28 54 41 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
SATELLITE LOOP EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATING AN AREA OF STATUS
WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS STATUS FAIRLY WELL AND MOVED IT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM
12Z TO 15Z THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR
HOWEVER DPROG/DT INDICATED A SLIGHTLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA
OF FOG THAN WHAT THE HRRR INDICATED. CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL LEVEL. ONCE THIS FOG DISSIPATES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
BY NOON AND THEN BY LATE DAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO
KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
309 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR WINNIPEG THIS MORNING
WITH AN EXTENSION RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. AN OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM KANSAS FROM EAST TO WEST WITH A 150 MILE WIDE BAND OF MVFR
STRATUS FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH NE KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS STRATUS MOVED THROUGH CONCORDIA BY 1 AM CDT. AHEAD (WEST) OF
THIS STRATUS NORTH WINDS WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH HOMOGENEOUS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S WERE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY AFTER 9 PM AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF GARDEN CITY TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE WAKEENEY, DODGE CITY AND
ASHLAND.
A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION,
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY, WHERE AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH LOCALLY. ONLY SMALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DIGHTON, SCOTT CITY
AND WAKEENEY. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL IN THE COOL SEASON SINCE
HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST IN KANSAS TYPICALLY REQUIRES SLOW
MOVING AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THESE WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(THERMAL GRADIENT) WILL HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1118 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. RADAR INDICATES
THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST...IF ANY...IS VERY LIGHT.
CLEARING IS WORKING INTO NORTHEASTERN KY AND IT IS ALSO CLEAR IN
CENTRAL KY. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD
ALSO SLACKEN. THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
AREAS OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON USPLOPE NW TO NNW FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PER AWOS AND KY DEPT OF
TRANSPORTATION REPORTS THIS IS FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT
2000 FEET AND ABOVE AND DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES
BELOW 2000 FEET. AS THE MOIST LAYER BELOW 800 MB CONTINUES TO BECOME
SHALLOWER...THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN...POSSIBLY TAPERING TO
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING AS MODELS POINT TOWARD
LOWERING PROBABILITIES OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -10C TO -14C RANGE SO THIS SUPPORTS THE LIQUID
VERSUS FROZEN PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO.
THE PRECIP IS NOW SO LIGHT THAT IT IS LIKELY NO LONGER ACCUMULATING...SO
WE LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN SPS ACROSS THE SE KY MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A POTENT PRE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS DEEPENING FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING FOR
PARTS OF LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THERE THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST...THERE WILL BE JUST
A THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS DEPARTING. THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AND AN
SPS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT TOO GONE FAR FROM MORNING LOWS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE CAA...PCPN...AND THICK CLOUDS. AT
THIS POINT...READINGS VARY FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE
MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...THOUGH 28 IS SEEN ON BLACK MOUNTAIN AND 32 AT
THE DORTON MESONET SITE. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE WITH STRONGLY RISING HEIGHTS
TO HELP US PUT THIS EARLY TASTE OF WINTER BEHIND US. IN GENERAL...
FOLLOWED THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER AFTER TONIGHT ONCE THE
PCPN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END IN THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW BRINGING A HARD FREEZE AND
FROST TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAWN. FOR THIS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER DAY TIME TEMPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOSE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN A GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATION COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS GETTING AS COLD
IF NOT COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE TONIGHT WHILE RIDGES SETTLE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WOULD ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO RESULT FROM THESE
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY OUR GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. WENT WITH
MORE OF A DIURNAL CURVE FROM THE NAM12 FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AFTER
EDITING THE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS. GIVEN HOW THE CONSSHORT WAS IN THE
TOO WARM INITIALLY HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM IT FOR TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...
WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WAS KEPT LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL ANCHORED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
EXITS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM EXITING THE REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WILL KEEP A STEADY
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE LACK OF HEATING AND THE SURFACE FEATURE
WEAKENING AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE EXTENDED. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO KEEP
FROM COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SO WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS
THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BIT OF FLIP FLOPPING IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
VFR OR MVFR LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GRADUAL CLEARING OR
THINNING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR
GRADUALLY FROM WEST AND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN OH
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KY CIGS ARE NOW VFR. DRIER AIR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BY ABOUT 10Z. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE SLACKENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
844 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
AREAS OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON USPLOPE NW TO NNW FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PER AWOS AND KY DEPT OF
TRANSPORTATION REPORTS THIS IS FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT
2000 FEET AND ABOVE AND DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES
BELOW 2000 FEET. AS THE MOIST LAYER BELOW 800 MB CONTINUES TO BECOME
SHALLOWER...THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN...POSSIBLY TAPERING TO
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING AS MODELS POINT TOWARD
LOWERING PROBABILITIES OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -10C TO -14C RANGE SO THIS SUPPORTS THE LIQUID
VERSUS FROZEN PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO.
THE PRECIP IS NOW SO LIGHT THAT IT IS LIKELY NO LONGER ACCUMULATING...SO
WE LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN SPS ACROSS THE SE KY MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A POTENT PRE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS DEEPENING FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING FOR
PARTS OF LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THERE THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST...THERE WILL BE JUST
A THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS DEPARTING. THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AND AN
SPS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT TOO GONE FAR FROM MORNING LOWS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE CAA...PCPN...AND THICK CLOUDS. AT
THIS POINT...READINGS VARY FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE
MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...THOUGH 28 IS SEEN ON BLACK MOUNTAIN AND 32 AT
THE DORTON MESONET SITE. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE WITH STRONGLY RISING HEIGHTS
TO HELP US PUT THIS EARLY TASTE OF WINTER BEHIND US. IN GENERAL...
FOLLOWED THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER AFTER TONIGHT ONCE THE
PCPN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END IN THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW BRINGING A HARD FREEZE AND
FROST TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAWN. FOR THIS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER DAY TIME TEMPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOSE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN A GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATION COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS GETTING AS COLD
IF NOT COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE TONIGHT WHILE RIDGES SETTLE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WOULD ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO RESULT FROM THESE
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY OUR GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. WENT WITH
MORE OF A DIURNAL CURVE FROM THE NAM12 FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AFTER
EDITING THE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS. GIVEN HOW THE CONSSHORT WAS IN THE
TOO WARM INITIALLY HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM IT FOR TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...
WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WAS KEPT LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL ANCHORED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
EXITS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM EXITING THE REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WILL KEEP A STEADY
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE LACK OF HEATING AND THE SURFACE FEATURE
WEAKENING AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE EXTENDED. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO KEEP
FROM COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SO WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS
THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BIT OF FLIP FLOPPING IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
VFR OR MVFR LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GRADUAL CLEARING OR
THINNING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR
GRADUALLY FROM WEST AND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN OH
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KY CIGS ARE NOW VFR. DRIER AIR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BY ABOUT 10Z. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE SLACKENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ON TOWARDS LABRADOR ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
615 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP
SHOWN BY THE RADAR SHOWING A SLOWER ADVANCEMENT INTO NORTHERN
AREAS. ATTM, THE PRECIP IS FALLING AS RAIN PER THE LATEST OBS.
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AS
EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC COOLING TAKE HOLD ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX
W/AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE HRRR 3KM AND THE RAP ARE DOING
WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP MATCHING IT UP W/THE RADAR.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS DOING WELL ATTM W/LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.
STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AS WELL AS EVAPORATIONAL AND
DYNAMIC COOLING. THIS FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION
OVERNIGHT, MAIN STORM ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING NORTH TO NOVA SCOTIA
AND GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD A NON GFS CONSENSUS WITH THIS UPDATE.
WE EXPECT SNOW TO INTENSIFY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SLEET MIXING IN NEAR THE COAST WHICH HOLD AMOUNTS
DOWN FOR THESE AREAS. MIX LINE MAY WIND UP VERY NEAR BANGOR EARLY
IN THE DAY AS LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS..WHERE EXACTLY THIS LINE
SETS UP ALONG WITH THE VERY HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS REMAINS THE
TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
SUNDAY AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS WHICH, WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
POWER OUTAGES IN ADDITION TO TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WE
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO 35 MPH
NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE DAY WITH CONTINUING STRONG WINDS. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 7 TO
14 INCHES IN THE WARNED AREA (WHICH ENCOMPASSES ALL BUT NW
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE WE HAVE AN ADVISORY) ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE UNDER
THE HEAVIEST BANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY
EVENING. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS
EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH TOWARD THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE.
WINDS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WILL SUSTAINED CLOSE TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DRIFTING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE WETTER AND LEAVES REMAIN ON MANY
OF THE TREES. SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL TAPER OFF. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. BY THE END OF THE DAY WESTERN AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND THE EAST PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 20 IN MOST AREAS AS THE AIR BECOMES CALM. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR NORTHWEST PULLS
SOME WARM ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME SHOWERS MAY STRAY INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SPOTS AS A FRONTAL OCCLUSION PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN WITH AN INCH OR
MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURATED GROUND, MELTING SNOW AND
RAIN MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. DRIER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH AND VFR DOWNEAST MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO IFR LATE. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR DOWNEAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NAER TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 KT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-
010-011-015>017-029>032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WAS TO EXTEND THE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER S PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE BOTH DOING
WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.
WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE NW. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGEST AT KSAW WHERE
FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AND MOISTURE WILL HANG
ON THE LONGEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>006-009.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
801 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WRN TAF SITES HAVE ALLOWED PREVAILING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT
SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR BUT WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FM NORTH WINDS AOA 30
KNOTS VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY GO TO IFR. N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 20KTS LATE AFTERNOON AT KSAW. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN
FROM THE W...DRIER AIR WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK UP TO VFR AT KSAW LATE
IN THE DAY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
709 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
THE WINDS AND THE FALLING TEMPS.
OVERVIEW: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
CHS... WOBBLING EASTWARD WITH MULTIPLE SLOTS OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE
PRIMARY LOW -- LOCATED OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE FRI -- NOW WELL OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE EXPECTED SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS TRACKING EASTWARD OVER FAR NE SC AND SE NC. THIN BROKEN
BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC... AS THE BULK OF THE INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT TRACKS JUST SOUTH/SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA... HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP
LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NW OF THE 850 MB LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
WINDS: FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME 20+ KT GUSTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. LAURINBURG HAS BEEN THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A GUST TO 32
KTS... BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS ELSEWHERE HAVE NOT EXCEEDED 30 KTS.
FOLLOWING THE HRRR MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT
WE`RE LIKELY STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM THE MAX MIXED LAYER DEPTH
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAGNITUDES SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS STILL JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA... BUT IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS BEING TOSSED AROUND AND SOME WEAK TREE BRANCHES KNOCKED
DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
PRECIP: BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SE AND ERN EDGE OF THE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS ON THE NRN AND WRN SIDES OF THE
STRENGTHENING BUT DEPARTING LOW. MUCH OF THE NRN AND NW CWA HOWEVER
ARE SEEING TOO MUCH DRYING ALOFT (700 MB AND ABOVE) AND NEAR THE
SURFACE (BELOW 900 MB) TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIP. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR SE/E BUT
BUMPED THEM DOWN TO 20-40% ACROSS THE NORTH AND NW. EXPECT DRYING
EVERYWHERE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TRACK ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST... FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
WILL HAVE NO PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS: LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN CHALLENGING... AS THE INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE STEADY NW BREEZE AND
PERSISTENT MIXING OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST
BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SLIP TO 30-32F LATE TONIGHT... BUT THESE NEAR-
AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO... GIVEN
THE STEADY MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR TO STAY
BLOCKED UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL NOT GO WITH
A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME... BUT STAY TUNED
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING IN THE EVENT THAT THE TEMPS THIS EVENING
DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED. LOW 31 WEST TO 38 EAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT THE BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER WRN NY/PA
AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD... BRUSHING
ACROSS NE NC SUN MORNING. AFTER PREDAWN WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT... WILL DEPICT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMING BACK INTO THE NE
CWA SUN MORNING... SHIFTING EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY SUNNY OVER CENTRAL NC WITH
DRY SUBSIDING MID LEVELS AND RISING HEIGHTS. THE AFTERNOON MIXED
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT DRY ADIABATIC... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CHILLY THICKNESSES STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1300 M INDICATES HIGHS OF
JUST 51-55. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR BRISK SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING OF AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THEN ON SUN
NIGHT... THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE CORE
SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE NRN AND NW CWA... GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
INVERSION ALOFT UP THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE AS WELL AS AN AREA OF
INCOMING MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB FROM THE WNW. THIS MOISTURE APPEAR
SHALLOW HOWEVER... SO ANY SUCH CIRRUS MAY BE TOO THIN TO HAMPER THE
DROP IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE... SEE NO REASON WHY THE ENTIRE CWA WON`T SEE
TEMPS AT OR WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL POST A
FREEZE WATCH FOR 06Z-13Z SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE GROWING
SEASON OVER CENTRAL NC. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL HELP TO STEER A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ABANDONED BY ITS PARENT LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC...BUT
LATER BE PICKED UP BY A WEAKER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT THE ORGANIZATION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT AND
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TIMING DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIPITATION SOME TIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORING A
BIT LATER TIMING MAY HELP TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY AND WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY...LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: AS OF 23Z THIS EVENING...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED/
SCATTERED OUT TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRWI...WHICH WILL
FOLLOW SUIT BY 00-02Z. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRESSURE RISES AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. NW/NNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 12-
17 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO ~30 KT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
BENIGN WEATHER /VFR CONDITIONS/ WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LOWER STRATUS IS
QUICKLY ERODING OVER THE FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE.
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AT 18 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LOWER STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED A KISN AND KDIK. THEREFORE
WILL BE ABLE TO START OUT THE 18 UTC FORECAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
AT ALL AERODROMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF RETURNING STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL BUT MODELS INDICATE LESS OF AN
INVERSION TONIGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (KISN-KDIK) ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND 18 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT
AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL WORK FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK. LINGERING STRATUS LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT WITH SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BUFKIT INDICATING THE STRATUS DECK RATHER
THIN AND ZERO FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW IS
THERE...JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING.
LOWERED MINS ABOUT 3 DEGREES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL NOW OCCUPY ONLY THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
PATCHY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE
THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT KISN TO TREND SCATTERED BETWEEN NOW
AND 09Z...AND FOR KDIK 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ON STRONG NORTH WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ALL WEEKEND...WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE DIGGING H5 LOW TONIGHT...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE SMALLER FEATURES. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN TONIGHT
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW
MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE CRITICAL THICKNESSES DROP. LEANED
TOWARDS THE RAP/HRRR WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. THE RAP DROPS 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESSES ENUF FOR SNOW
TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEGINNING AROUND 03-04Z IN THE NW. THE
THICKNESSES SLOWLY DROP S THEN E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THE SCIOTO VALLEY WILL MANAGE TO STAY RAIN THRU THE
EVENT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WANT TO LINGER THE PCPN IN THE COLD AIR
LONGER THAN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONTINUED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KY.
ALSO CONTINUED WITH THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE
FA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OF BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE H5 LOW SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO EAST COAST SATURDAY
MORNING...SOME PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COLD NLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT A VERY COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
BUILDING SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THE CLOUDS FROM W TO E. WITH THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SE INDIANA WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 20S. IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE AROUND 30. CONTINUED FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. DESPITE
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL START OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERMITTING THE
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
REINFORCE THIS FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ELONGATED AXIS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SPAWNING IT STRENGTHENS AND OCCLUDES OVER HUDSON
BAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS
BACK...STRONG ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A 5 DEG
JUMP IN HIGHS ON THIS DAY. WED AND THURS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS AND THEN SEE A DROP AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
USHERS IN COOLER AIR. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
HIGH WITH THE GFS FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER PUSHING IN COOLER
AIR...AND THE EURO ACTUALLY OVER THE REGION PERMITTING A WARMUP WITH
MORE WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. MEANWHILE CEILINGS WILL BE
MVFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THAT. SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IN THE
CINCINNATI AREA LATE TODAY. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER
00Z AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN EXPECT THIS TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT AROUND COLUMBUS WHERE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT WILL PREVAIL AND
SOME PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WHILE VERY SLOWLY
VEERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY
LIFTING ALTHOUGH REMAINING MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ089>100.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
833 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS BAND ORIGINATED NEAR SEXTON SUMMIT
AND HAS HELD UP VERY WELL. EXPECT MORE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE SISKIYOU MTNS BY 9 PM. SHORT TERM HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT IN JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE
COUNTIES. ROAD-CAMS IN EASTERN DOUGLAS SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS OVER
DIAMOND LAKE AREA AND EXPECT EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEYS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN MAY BEGIN TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AREAS WITHIN THE KLAMATH BASIN HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT.
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND EXTENSIVE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 215PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AT WHICH TIME
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY, REACHING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME STEEP
DUE TO A BUILDING SOUTHERLY CHOP, POSSIBLY REACHING HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING THRESHOLDS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, BUT ANOTHER MORE
POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE DETAILS ARE SKETCHY, BUT SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EVOLVE AS CURRENT MODELS PREDICT, GALES AND VERY STEEP
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE VERY POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.
-BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HALLOWEEN HAS DEPARTED US AND
SO WILL THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS DELIVERED MORE THAN A HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. AS THE EAST SIDE DRIES OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THEN TONIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE.
IT`S BEEN A VERY MILD FALL SO FAR IN TERMS OF OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL...SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GET THE FIRST
FROST OF THE FALL. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE
ILLINOIS...APPLEGATE...SCOTT...AND PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...WITH A FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR COLDER PORTIONS OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THE FROST FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY IS WELL PAST THE
NORMAL FIRST FROST DATE FOR MEDFORD. AT THIS TIME THE AIRPORT...ONE
OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...SHOULD REMAIN TOO WARM
FOR FROST...BUT COLDER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY CENTER WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S. THE COLDEST LOCATION WITHIN THE FROST
ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND TEMPERATURES
THERE COULD DIP TO FREEZING BRIEFLY TONIGHT.
TOMORROW A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST
PLACES BUT THERE WILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE.
OVERRUNNING ALONG THE COAST COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THAT AREA TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE IN FOR RAINFALL
FROM NORTH BEND TO BROOKINGS TOMORROW. THAT OVERRUNNING INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SO DO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.
THEN...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A FETCH OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ARRIVES AT THE COAST...AND WITH MAXIMUM ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K
AND 300K LEVELS...RAIN IS VERY LIKELY AT THE COAST AND UMPQUA
BASIN...WITH GOOD CHANCES REACHING TOWARDS THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM SO IT WILL BE A RAIN EVENT.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WEDNESDAY WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
OVER THE AREA.
THE EC/GFS/DGEX MODELS ALL PUSH THE TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING. THE DGEX IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS
IS FASTEST AND SHALLOWEST. THE DGEX SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY`S AND LOOKS LIKE AN ANOMALY...SO WILL NOT
CONSIDER THAT SOLUTION IN THE MIX. THE REMAINING MODELS SUPPORT
PUSHING A FRONT ONSHORE THURSDAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAKES
A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO HOW WINDY AND WET THE FRONT WILL BE. SO...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE FRONT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT LOW FOR WINDS AND QPF.
FLAT RIDGING WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IF NOT END COMPLETELY...BUT POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL. ALL SOLUTIONS BUILD A RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...A MIX
OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST OREGON
VALLEYS...WITH FOG MOST LIKELY HUGGING THE RIVERS. THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY...THEN CLEAR
TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL LATE NIGHT THROUGH
MID- MORNING MVFR CIGS IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS.
MARINE...UPDATED 215PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AT WHICH TIME
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY, REACHING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME STEEP DUE TO A
BUILDING SOUTHERLY CHOP, POSSIBLY REACHING HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
THRESHOLDS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ080>082.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
FJB/FJB/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED INLAND THIS EVENING. THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY LATE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REMAINING FRI
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE PAC
NW. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE LOW IS SLOWING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PIVOTING IT
FROM A NE-SW ORIENTATION TO A N-S ORIENTATION. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SPREAD ONTO THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS PUSHED SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMSU
DERIVED SATELLITE SHOWING 1 TO 1.2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN OREGON...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE WEAKENED AND LOST SOME DEFINITION AS IT PASSED OVER THE
COAST RANGE. THE STEADIER FRONTAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW
FOCUSED OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES...WHILE THERE IS A
BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOWING UP BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN COAST RANGE. ANOTHER INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WAS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...EXTENDING INTO LANE
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM RAP MODEL SHOWED A STRONG
BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
EXPLAIN THE THUNDER. TRACKING THE RAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THE CASCADES SOUTH OF MT HOOD...WITH THE THREAT ENDING AFTER 06Z.
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON
THE INSTABILITY APPARENT ON SATELLITE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE COLDER AIR
MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 4500
TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS
TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES INCLUDING SANTIAM AND
WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW
TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. PYLE/CULLEN
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT STALLED AND IS
PETERING OUT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE WITH MVFR TO VFR
CIGS. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE COAST...COULD SEE SOME MVFR VIS
DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MORE UNCERTAINTY INLAND
DUE TO SEEMINGLY FIZZLING FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AND IF MOISTURE
LINGERS...COULD SEE ANOTHER MORNING WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS
AROUND SLE AND EUG. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...WITH FRONT NOT MAKING A CLEAN SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINANT
BY ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. BOWEN
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO DECREASE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA BAR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WNW SWELL INCREASES SEAS TO AT LEAST NEAR SCA
CRITERIA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT SEAS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR SCA SO WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
REASSESS AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
OVERALL WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH
GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 AM
PDT FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
2 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Sfc analysis shows the cold front about midway thru the FA,
satellite imagery showing stratus trying to develop SE of KMAF.
Latest buffer soundings and HRRR keep this low cloud E and S of
KMAF, and develop MVFR cigs at KFST ~09-14Z, before scattering
out. Otherwise, sfc flow will veer to SE over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Not much change this evening, as VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail tonight. Toward daybreak, RH progs indicate
the potential for high end MVFR ceilings, mainly affecting KFST
and KPEQ, with slightly lesser confidence for KCNM and KINK. Have
maintained the going TEMPOS in the 08-13Z time frame for these
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail Friday, with winds
remaining around 10-15kt and gradually veering to the east through
the period. Some showers/thunderstorms are possible to the south
Friday morning, though the low chance precludes mention in the
current TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge axis extending from the 4 corners region up across
Montana will move east the next couple of days with mild wx for the
region. Behind this ridge an upper trough will move onto the West
Coast and bring increasing chances of rain to the area starting
late in the weekend. By midweek the next upper ridge begins to
build in from the west as dry wx returns.
A cold front was moving through the area as of early afternoon with
a gusty north wind behind it. As of 19z the front was just passing
through MAF. Temps will be cooler tonight and tomorrow behind the
front. Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s as
the wind comes around to the NE. Highs tomorrow will be it the 60s
with 70s possible closer to the Rio Grande. Unless a last minute
shower pops up... Midland will officially end the month of October
with only a trace of precipitation. This will keep 2014 on track
for one of the 10 driest years on record.
Could see a few showers or storms tonight into tomorrow over the
Lower Trans Pecos with the front but not expecting much from this.
Models do develop some light qpf and may be enough moisture south to
work with. A better chance of rain looks to be Sunday night through
Tuesday night with the upper trough approaching. Models not in
agreement as to the strength of the next trough so for now will keep
chance pops as they are.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland
Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE BUT HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. NEXT AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN
A THICK AREA OF CIRRUS EXISTS JUST TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION.
BAND OF MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
EVENING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE. OVERALL...WILL CALL IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY...MORE SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT DUE TO RELATIVELY MIXY BL WINDS AND
SNOW PACK OVER N-C WISCONSIN. DROPPED TEMPS OVER VILAS COUNTY WHERE
THE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 OVER VILAS TO
LOWER 30S LAKE SIDE.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS...BUT
WILL HAVE FILTERED SUN THROUGH MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT LEAST INTO MID-WEEK WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH.
FIRST SYSTEM THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SE HALF OF AREA ALONG
COLD FRONT.
AFTER BRIEF BREAK...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF EVENT...BUT COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
SYSTEM THURSDAY.
850 MB TEMPS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT BOTH SHOW
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF.
TEMP FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER TONIGHT. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS AROUND 1000 FT AGL WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
703 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE BUT HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. NEXT AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN
A THICK AREA OF CIRRUS EXISTS JUST TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION.
BAND OF MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
EVENING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE. OVERALL...WILL CALL IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY...MORE SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT DUE TO RELATIVELY MIXY BL WINDS AND
SNOW PACK OVER N-C WISCONSIN. DROPPED TEMPS OVER VILAS COUNTY WHERE
THE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 OVER VILAS TO
LOWER 30S LAKE SIDE.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS...BUT
WILL HAVE FILTERED SUN THROUGH MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT LEAST INTO MID-WEEK WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH.
FIRST SYSTEM THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SE HALF OF AREA ALONG
COLD FRONT.
AFTER BRIEF BREAK...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF EVENT...BUT COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
SYSTEM THURSDAY.
850 MB TEMPS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT BOTH SHOW
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF.
TEMP FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
A GOOD NIGHT FOR FLYING WITH JUST SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS.
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AROUND 1000 FT AGL WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
THE PEAK WINDS MADE THEIR WAY DOWN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM 8 AM
THROUGH 10 AM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THIS LAST PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING AS WELL. T
HE WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG JUST ABOVE THE GROUND THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 40 MPH AT 1000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE MIXING UP TO 2000
TO 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON... SO WIND GUSTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
EVERYWHERE. THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF
COUNTIES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH CRITERIA
THROUGH 6 PM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
THE ONSET OF HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING FROM 8 TO 10 AM AS
THE LAST BURST OF ENERGY TREKKED DOWN THE LAKESHORE IN THE WAKE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. LIGHT SNOW ACCOMPANIED THIS
FEATURE. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT THESE HIGH LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF
SOUTHERN WI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT MADISON TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT THE EASTERN SITES.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. EXPECT DRIER
AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KENOSHA AND SOUTH
OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WITH ANOTHER 0.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY
AREAS IS POSSIBLE AT KENOSHA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
FIRST ISSUE ARE THE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA IS LOCATED FROM NEAR VOLK FIELD EAST TO NEAR GREEN BAY INTO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. THESE WERE BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS TAKE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY 13Z.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION WITHIN DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...SO MODERATE INTENSITY
SHOULD PERSIST. A QUICK 0.1 OR 0.2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY
AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. ROADS SHOULD JUST REMAIN
WET...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THESE WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS/SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION PUSH BEHIND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONG NORTH WINDS TO LINGER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SOMEWHAT LOWER
TO THE WEST. THUS...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 12Z TO 23Z TODAY IN
THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE WEST. EASTERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...SLOWLY WEAKENING LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
LAST ISSUE IS THE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE NEAR THE LAKE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WITH VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES LINGER DURING THIS TIME.
SNOWFALL ON GRASSY AREAS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITHIN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S
INLAND...AROUND 30 LAKESIDE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S
TODAY...AND THE TEENS TONIGHT.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WITH CHILLY 850 TEMPS SUGGEST FAVORABLE ENOUGH
DELTA T TO RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR SE
CORNER TO START THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE SHRINKING BAND OVER THE
LAKE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLIPPING AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE AND ON
SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER EAST WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE/850 HIGH RIDGE AXES SHIFTING INTO
ERN WI BY DAYS END. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH WITH 850 TEMPS TRYING TO GET ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 HIGHS SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS NUDGES UP ACROSS WRN WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN
WITH DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING. 925 TEMPS BUMP UPWARDS A BIT THROUGH
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH
MOST HIGHS REACHING AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOW 50S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AS 500 FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. APPEARS 850 JET DOES INCREASE MOISTURE INTO SRN WI. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ON MONDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS MORE OF A DELAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
LOWER LOOK OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPING PRECIP GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS JUST SOME LIGHT LINGERING RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SO STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
SUPERBLEND POPS.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUICK MOVING PATTERN CONTINUES AS STRONGER 500 FLOW PERSISTS AND
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN RACING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH AND MUCH OF
THE QPF IS ALSO NORTH. OUR NORTHERN CWA IS A CLOSE CALL SO HAVE
KEPT SOME SMALL POPS THERE BUT WENT DRY IN SOUTH PER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN LINGERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
LIGHTER WINDS WITH TIME THOUGH A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH 925
TEMPS JUST A SMIDGE ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THIS MORNING. A QUICK 0.1 OR 0.2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT THE RUNWAYS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND BE JUST WET. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES...PREVAILING 1 TO 2 MILES...AROUND OR BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL...LASTING
INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS.
MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS THE DAY GOES
ON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
AN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KENOSHA AND SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
WITH ANOTHER 0.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY AREAS IS POSSIBLE AT
KENOSHA.
STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE EASTERN SITES. GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS AT
MADISON...TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AT THE EASTERN SITES...ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT MADISON TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT THE EASTERN SITES.
MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS TO OCCUR
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW 35 KNOTS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BUT
REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE UNTIL AROUND 15Z SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-059-060-
065-066-070>072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATE
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY ERODED OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY AT ALL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
CHEYENNE...AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA FORECAST SITES...DIMINISHING A
BIT BY LATE EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED RELAXING THE GRADIENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW CIGS.
PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY NOON AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PERIODS OF IFR ARE
EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST MID FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT/SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
248 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE. KMD
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 50 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD OF THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AND
STEADILY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE IN PLACE WITH A STEADIER BUT STILL LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND STARTING TO SET UP OUT TOWARD RFD. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA SOME SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AND HAVE INCLUDED A SHALLOW FOG MENTION AT DPA.
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO BUILD. GUSTS OF 18-20 KT ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON BUT INCOMING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SOME OCCASIONAL 20-25 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WINDS RAMP UP ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50 KT BY AROUND 2000 FT AGL.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. SHRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
147 PM CDT
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO ABATE OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 25
TO 30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN CANADA SURFACE LOW...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE LAKE BY TUESDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING WESTERLY
THROUGH MID WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
232 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
VFR conditions expected thru 06z Sunday. Main forecast concern
will be with the potential for low level wind shear later Sunday
night into Monday morning as winds increase out of the south ahead
of our next weather system. Otherwise, other than some scattered
to broken mid and high level clouds moving across the area on
Sunday, not much in the way of sensible weather to affect the
forecast area.
Light east to southeast winds tonight will become southerly by 15z
Sunday and gradually increase in speed, especially across the west
where we could see some gusts around 20 kts by late afternoon.
Surface winds will then decouple by evening, but increase at the
1500 to 2000 foot level in the 03z-06z time frame. The NAM-WRF
model was the most aggressive with the winds later tomorrow eve,
while the local WRF-ARW and mean ensembles were borderline, but
only at SPI and PIA in the 03z-06z time frame. At this point, since
we have a couple more model runs, will hold off mentioning LLWS in
this set of TAFs but may need to be included in later forecasts if
we see better model agreement.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. RADAR INDICATES
THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST...IF ANY...IS VERY LIGHT.
CLEARING IS WORKING INTO NORTHEASTERN KY AND IT IS ALSO CLEAR IN
CENTRAL KY. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD
ALSO SLACKEN. THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
AREAS OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON UPSLOPE NW TO NNW FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PER AWOS AND KY DEPT OF
TRANSPORTATION REPORTS THIS IS FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT
2000 FEET AND ABOVE AND DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES
BELOW 2000 FEET. AS THE MOIST LAYER BELOW 800 MB CONTINUES TO BECOME
SHALLOWER...THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN...POSSIBLY TAPERING TO
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING AS MODELS POINT TOWARD
LOWERING PROBABILITIES OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -10C TO -14C RANGE SO THIS SUPPORTS THE LIQUID
VERSUS FROZEN PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO.
THE PRECIP IS NOW SO LIGHT THAT IT IS LIKELY NO LONGER ACCUMULATING...SO
WE LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN SPS ACROSS THE SE KY MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A POTENT PRE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS DEEPENING FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING FOR
PARTS OF LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THERE THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST...THERE WILL BE JUST
A THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS DEPARTING. THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AND AN
SPS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT TOO GONE FAR FROM MORNING LOWS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE CAA...PCPN...AND THICK CLOUDS. AT
THIS POINT...READINGS VARY FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE
MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...THOUGH 28 IS SEEN ON BLACK MOUNTAIN AND 32 AT
THE DORTON MESONET SITE. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE WITH STRONGLY RISING HEIGHTS
TO HELP US PUT THIS EARLY TASTE OF WINTER BEHIND US. IN GENERAL...
FOLLOWED THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER AFTER TONIGHT ONCE THE
PCPN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END IN THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW BRINGING A HARD FREEZE AND
FROST TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAWN. FOR THIS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER DAY TIME TEMPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOSE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN A GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATION COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS GETTING AS COLD
IF NOT COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE TONIGHT WHILE RIDGES SETTLE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WOULD ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO RESULT FROM THESE
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY OUR GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. WENT WITH
MORE OF A DIURNAL CURVE FROM THE NAM12 FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AFTER
EDITING THE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS. GIVEN HOW THE CONSSHORT WAS IN THE
TOO WARM INITIALLY HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM IT FOR TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...
WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WAS KEPT LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL ANCHORED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
EXITS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM EXITING THE REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WILL KEEP A STEADY
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE LACK OF HEATING AND THE SURFACE FEATURE
WEAKENING AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE EXTENDED. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO KEEP
FROM COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SO WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS
THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BIT OF FLIP FLOPPING IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2014
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
LOZ AND SME HAVE ALREADY GONE CLEAR AND IT WILL NOT BE MUCH LONGER
BEFORE JKL AND SJS CLEAR OUT AS WELL. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IT
APPEARS THAT JKL SHOULD BE CLEAR BY 9Z AND SJS BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
250 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND INTO
THE MARITIMES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AS OF 07Z WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SEVERAL FORECAST
CHALLENGES STILL EXIST TODAY...MAINLY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
MESOSCALE BANDING THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREA OF NARROW
BUT STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. ON AVERAGE...THE
00Z MODELS HAVE COME WESTWARD A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE NARROW
NATURE OF THE BAND WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A STORY OF
HAVES AND HAVE NOTS TODAY...AND BY A PRETTY THIN MARGIN.
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE
NAM...GFS...CANADIANS...ECMWF...AND HRRR TO DRIVE THE FORECAST
TODAY. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THAT THE BAND WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE
OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NH...WITH A
GREATER INLAND EXTENT ACROSS THE MID COAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN TO 32-33 DEGREES OR SO IN
PLACES WHERE THE BAND AND IT/S ASSOCIATED STRONG OMEGA SITS
OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD HELP THESE AREAS TO FLIP OVER TO SNOW. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED ACCUMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE...INCLUDING PORTLAND. WHILE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE REACHED IN MANY SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF A HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND WARRANTS
ONE...ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST MAINE HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AS HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACHIEVED. THE BIG WINNER MAY END
UP BEING THE CAMDEN HILLS.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FLUID AND CHANGEABLE TODAY DEPENDING
ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE BAND...SO BUST POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW
IS CERTAINLY HIGH. FOR EXAMPLE...IF THE BAND STAYS OFFSHORE OF
PORTLAND...LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL THERE...BUT WE THINK IT WILL COME
ONSHORE FOR A FEW HOURS. IF IT COMES IN AND SITS...MORE SNOW
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST IT COMES...NOT REALLY
SURE AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...FROM PAST EXPERIENCE...BANDING
TENDS TO COME A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT.
OUR CURRENT SNOWFALL GRAPHIC TAKES IN ACCOUNT OUR LATEST THOUGHTS
IN A NUTSHELL.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED. THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.
A VERY FLUID SITUATION TODAY...STAY TUNED!
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE WINDING UP IN OUR AREA AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM LIFTS NNE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING. FAR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE A FEW MORE FLAKES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY SOMERSET TO WALDO AND EASTWARD. WEST WINDS AND
DRY SLOTTING MOVES IN QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING. MONDAY
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE SAME EXTENT AS SUNDAY. AS
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE
TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT ESSENTIALLY
KEEPS US IN NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S.
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS OVER-RUNNING PATTERN
SETS UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST LIFT GENERALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RETURN
FLOW OF WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS EDGING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. EXPECT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY AND
BROAD OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO OVER-SPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE ANOTHER SOAKER AS GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISING SEVERAL INCHES OF QPF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PRECIP
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TODAY IN RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED 15Z TO 23Z
TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR THE OCEAN AND GALES ON
THE BAYS FOR TODAY AS STRONG COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED SOUTHERNMOST MAINE
AND SEACOAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ008-
009-013-014-021-022-026>028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NHZ008-010-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 08 UTC...DEEP LOPRES E OF THE DELMARVA/S OF ACK. NW FLOW
THUS FAR HAS CONTAINED SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GFS MDL SNDGS
DEPICT LLJ NEAR H9 OF 50+ KT. EVEN RAP HAS SPECKS OF 50 KT AND
FULL MIXING NEAR 45 KT. FORTUNATELY...DUE TO NOCTURNAL TIMING AND
A BKN-OVC CLD DECK...WNDS NOT MIXING DWN ALL THAT EFFICIENTLY. BUT
THE JET WILL BE AROUND TIL 12-14 UTC. AM CONCERNED THAT MIXING MAY
IMPROVE TWD DAWN PRIOR TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE LLJ. THAT THREAT
WOULD END BEFORE NOON. BASED ON MIXING SOMEWHERE BTWN MEAN MIXED
AND FULL PER GFS/RAP...HV OPTED TO RAISE WIND ADVY THRU
11AM...PRIMARILY FOR BALT-DC METRO WHICH IS WHERE LLJ WL RESIDE.
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW IN THE WRN HIGHLANDS THSI PAST EVNG. NO
MTR DATA SUGGESTS IT HAS CONTD SINCE...AND THE TRAJ NOT FVRBL FOR
UPSLOPE SHSN EITHER. BUT RGNL RDR COMPOSITE SUGGESTS SNOW/FLURRIES
TRAVELLING SWD ACRS PA INTO CWFA. MTNS SHUD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDTL PCPN...WHICH WUD BE SNOW. CANT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES E OF
THERE EITHER...BUT LOW DEWPTS WUD SUGGEST THERE WL BE SOME EVAP. AM
MAINTAINING CURRENT SNOW ACCUM FCST FOR THE MTNS...WHICH CONTAINS
OVNGT AMTS LESS THAN AN INCH...AND A FEW MORE FLURRIES IN THE MRNG.
WL ALSO ADD A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES E OF MTNS THRU DAWN.
HIPRES /SFC-H8/ WL BE BUMPING INTO THE APLCNS BY AFTN. MRNG CLD DECK
SHUD ERODE BY MIDDAY ACRS MOST OF CWFA. IT MAY HANG ON A WEE BIT
LONGER IN THE MTNS. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO THE P-GRAD. GIVEN CAA...THINK TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO REACH
50F. CHO-NAK SEWD HAS THE BEST CHC AT THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RDGG CONTS TO BLD ACRS CWFA TNGT-MON. WL STILL HV BRZY CONDS IN THE
EVNG...BUT THE GUSTS WL BE MORE IN THE ORDER OF 20 KT VS 30 KT. XPCT
A RAPID DECREASE FM THERE...W/ WINDS BLO 10 KT BY MIDNGT. HV NEAR
IDEAL RADL COOLING CONDS /DEWPTS IN THE LWR 20S/...ASSUMING THAT
WNDS DCPL. AM NOT CERTAIN THAT WL HPPN...SPCLY E OF I-95. DCPLG
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET WELL INLAND. WL BE ISSUING FREEZE WRNGS W OF
I-95 AND WATCHES ALONG I-95 FOR TNGT-MON MRNG.
A LTL PVA CROSSES AREA MON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FEW MID-DECK CLDS.
OTRW...AREA UNDER HIPRES. QSTN REGARDING HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WL
REBOUND. MAV MORE AGGRESSIVE ATTM...AND AM SKEPTICAL. KEEPING MON
MAXT CLSR TO PRVS FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
SINCE THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATE ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT MILD FALL AIR FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 70 IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THANKS
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS THE PARENT
LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND SLIDES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKEN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THUS...CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-81
WEDNESDAY.
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH REINVIGORATING TO
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO RESOLVE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH
THAN THE EURO...WHICH IN TURN WOULD BRING THE SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS SCENARIO WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AND QPF DURING
THIS PERIOD. TOOK THE NEW GFS SOLUTION INTO ACCOUNT BY INCREASING
THE DURATION OF POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
REGARDLESS OF THE LOW TRACK THAT COMES TO FRUITION...LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL FILL IN IN BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU VALID TAF PD. WINDS WL BE THE ISSUE. LLJ NEAR
2000-3000 FT ELEV CONTAINING 45-50 KT PASSING OVHD THRU 12-14 UTC.
ITS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS RMK AT CHO. ELSW...AM CARRYING G30-35
KT IN TAFS...WHICH WL CONT THRU MUCH OF DAY. WINDS SUBSIDING TNGT...
WITH MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDS OVNGT INTO MON.
VFR THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HIGH END SCA W/ A FEW GLW GUSTS ON THE WATERS. SUSPECT THERE
ARE MORE GLW CONDS THAN BEING REPRESENTED IN OBS...SPCLY IN THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE BAY. SIMLR CONDS THRU MIDDAY /MAY EVEN SPIKE A LTL
COME SUNRISE/ BEFORE WNDS GRDLY SUBSIDE. SCA ALREADY POSTED FOR
TNGT. HV TRIMMED THE MID-UPR PTMC FOR A ERLR END TIME BASED ON
XPCTD HIPRES RDG SPREADING EWD. THINK WE/LL BE UNDER CRIT FOR
MON...AND REMAIN SO THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WL HV GUSTY WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS TDA...BUT DONT BELIEVE THAT THE
WORST OF THE TWO WL COINCIDE...NOR WL FUELS BE PRIMED. MAY FALL
SHORT OF RED FLAGS... BUT ELEMENTS WUD BE UNFVRBL IF ANY FIRES DO
IGNITE. COORD W/ FIRE OFFICIALS LIKELY AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES LKLY TO INCREASE
FURTHER BY AFTN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
DCZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MDZ007-011-013-014-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-
009>011-013-014-016>018.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-009-
010.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ054-057.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ042-052>055-
057-501-502.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-
036>040-042-050>053-055-056-501-502.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS/CEB
MARINE...HTS/CEB
FIRE WEATHER...HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A WRN TROF...SHARP CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP
ERN TROF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N TO LWR MI AND THEN INTO QUEBEC. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS SEEN ON NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FOR
THAT MATTER WELL UPSTREAM TO THE S AND SW...PCPN IS NOT AN ISSUE
WITH THE ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
DESPITE CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN HIGH PRES SHIFTING E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVELS REMAINING TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERNS TODAY
AND EVEN ON INTO TONIGHT. UNDER SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...TEMPS
TODAY WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EVEN WITH JUST
SHALLOW MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 925MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS. IF MIXED
LAYER BUILDS JUST A BIT HIGHER...TEMPS WILL TOP 50F. BEST CHC OF
REACHING 50F WILL BE IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT SEE
DOWNSLOPING UNDER S WINDS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING WINDS UP TO
25-30KT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...MAKING THE AIR FEEL COOLER. STEADY
SW FLOW...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
WORK TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT. EXPECT MINS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. INTERIOR LOCATIONS THAT DECOUPLE MORE MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER
20S WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES MAY NOT FALL BLO 40F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT 12Z MONDAY...EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INITIALLY...WITH S WINDS USHERING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
OUT AHEAD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP SLIDING IN FROM THE SW SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE TO AROUND 50F. HELD OFF OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE FCST AS THE 500MB
RIDGE EXITS TO LAKE HURON AND THE SFC LOW STRETCHES FROM E MANITOBA
TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED DOWN OVER FAR
E MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO PUSH ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...SWEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER MI.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT E UPPER MI TUESDAY MORNING...WITH COOL W-NW
FLOW RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL BE THE ONLY THING LEFT AFTER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS E WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EXITING LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND N QUEBEC. W-NW FLOW WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY THURSDAY /WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI/.
850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN -6 TO -8C WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
HOW CLOSE THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL GET TO US FROM THE S ON THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER E MT/W ND AT 06Z WEDNESDAY...SINKING
ACROSS IA BY 00Z THURSDAY..AND NEAR THE S TIP OF LAKE MI BY 12Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MERGE WITH AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE A LONGER THAN FCST PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WITH 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -12C. THE NEXT LOW OF INTEREST OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND MERGES WITH THE THE INITIAL
LOW DEEPENING AS IT EJECTS N ACROSS THE NE ENGLAND STATES AND E
CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
LLWS TO PERSIST AT KIWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING BY
15Z THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SW THERE.
KSAW WILL ALSO SEE WINDS PICK UP A BIT AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS THERE. WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A LOW
PRES TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT SOUTHERLY WINDS
MOSTLY IN THE 10-20KT RANGE TODAY/TONIGHT THOUGH OCNL PERIODS OF
15-25KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON MON...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE TUE/TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO
E WED/WED NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THU...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF WHERE WINDS WILL REACH 15-25KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
330 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL END ANY LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE
CAROLINAS AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 300 AM...RADAR SHOWS LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. THESE BANDS ARE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE...WITH GENERALLY NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF
THEM. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AN THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES WHERE PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY RAIN.
THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCALLY MODERATE...SOME FOCUSING DOWN THE
FINGER LAKE VALLEYS. ONLY THE HRRR HAS THE RESOLUTION TO CAPTURE
THESE MESO/MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS AND LATEST RUNS HAVE DONE AN
ADMIRABLE JOB. AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF. THERE WILL BE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...BUT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN BANDS. IR SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS OF AROUND -15C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...BUT PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ADVECT PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES WILL SLOW THE CLEARING WITH
WITH LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS LINGERING INLAND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
EVENTUALLY CLOUDS WILL GIVEWAY TO SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
INLAND SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS...AND THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND A BRIEF BAND OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
WARM OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING FAIR...AND MILDER WEATHER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUTSIDE OF PASSING CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY. ALOFT OUR 850 HPA AIR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 3
TO 5C ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE MONDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL BRING WARM...AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BROAD SOUTHEAST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT MARKING THE WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS PUSHING NORTHWARD. THIS WARM FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY EXTEND EASTWARD ENOUGH TO BRING A STRAY SHOWER
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CLIPPING FAR NW NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OUR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS...AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A
STILL STRONG SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...AND
A NEARING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKE PLAIN...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION
TO THE BREEZE MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH LIFT ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE RAIN SHOWERS REACH US SUNSHINE WILL BRING A WARM EARLY
NOVEMBER DAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INLAND VALLEYS. A
FEW AREAS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING OUR
REGION...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT
SAID...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE MAY LEAVE
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD START THE PERIOD
QUIET WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...THIS RIDGE BETWEEN
THE RECENTLY DEPARTED SHORTWAVE AND A DIGGING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CORN BELT STATES.
THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO RACE
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORCED ALONG BY BRIEF UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION AS STRONG UPPER JET CORE ROTATES OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS
CLIPPER APPEARS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUING TO SHOW
UP IN LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGES. CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORTING AN ALL RAIN EVENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE
MAY MAKE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF A DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS.
THE AIRMASS CERTAINLY LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME TRAILING
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -10C. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) DEVELOPING FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY. AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST...THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS
COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED STRATUS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 09Z OR SO...AND
THEN IMPROVE FROM W-E AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH THE APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE AT JHW...WHERE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR. RAIN LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT TODAY...WHICH SOME OF THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED. A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS WILL
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
MONDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING MORE HEADLINES. THIS FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
205 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY. THIS WILL END ANY LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE
CAROLINAS AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR SHOWS LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. THESE BANDS ARE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...WITH
GENERALLY NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THEM.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AN THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
PRIMARILY RAIN. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCALLY MODERATE...SOME
FOCUSING DOWN THE FINGER LAKE VALLEYS. ONLY THE HRRR HAS THE
RESOLUTION TO CAPTURE THESE MESO/MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS AND LATEST
RUNS HAVE DONE AN ADMIRABLE JOB. AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF. THERE WILL BE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IN MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE IN BANDS. IR SHOWS CLOUD TOPS OF AROUND -15C WHICH IS
MARGINAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...BUT PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WASHED AWAY BY THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE...BUT
STILL A COOL TO COLD DAY ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
REGIONS...AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...DRIFTING OVERHEAD MONDAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WORK INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A
COLD NIGHT FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...BUT 30S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY MONDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST MARKING THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FORCE A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS...MODEL PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST A GOOD DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING OVERTOP THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
CASCADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN ADVANCE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY...THE
DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARMING STILL SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING SUPPLIED
BY SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET CORE...AUGMENTED DOWN LOW BY PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. NICE SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOULD PROPEL A DECENTLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE COMBINATION
OF PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE HELPING SPIKE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR AN INCH. BAND OF ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME THROUGH AS SHOWERS WITH THUNDER THREAT ALMOST
NIL...AS MID LEVEL LAPSES REMAIN LIMITED AND NEARLY ALL THE
INSTABILITY FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE IN
NATURE WITH INCREASING GUIDANCE SUPPORT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM TO RACE OVERHEAD...FORCED ALONG BY BRIEF UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION AS STRONG UPPER JET CORE ROTATES OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS
CLIPPER APPEARS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUING TO SHOW
UP IN LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGES. CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORTING AN ALL RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE MAY MAKE A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY A POSSIBILITY.
THE AIRMASS CERTAINLY LOOKS COLD ENOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -10C AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) DEVELOPING FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY. AT THIS STAGE OF THE FORECAST...THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...ALTHOUGH LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED STRATUS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 09Z OR SO...AND
THEN IMPROVE FROM W-E AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH THE APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE AT JHW...WHERE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR. RAIN LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL BRING BRISK
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...AND AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT 88-D RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EXTREME
NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR IS
STILL SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR AND A
RATHER DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...HAVE REDUCED POPS FURTHER OVER THE
GREATER PHX AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A FEW OTHER CHANGES TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND TEMP GRIDS...CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE STILL LOOKING
GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY...AS AIR IS LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND .80 INCH PWAT...WITH ALL OF THIS IN A SHALLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. OBVIOUSLY SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH...BUT THIS IS MINIMAL AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN
WEAK AND LOW TOPPED. POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH LOOKING AT WINDS FROM MESOWEST
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA IT APPEARS ATM IT IS LYING JUST WEST OF
THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA. MID CLOUD DECK SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS GENERAL LOCATION. MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN TO THIS REGION.
SOME MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING OUR OWN 4KM WRF...INDICATE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE IN THE
UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE LOWER DESERTS. REDUCED OUR POPS A LITTLE BIT
FROM WHAT WE HAD IN OUR EARLIER PACKAGE...THOUGH STILL KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD FROM THE PHOENIX METRO
ON EASTWARD. BY EVENING...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOCATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BIGGEST STORY TODAY THOUGH WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. READINGS MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ON NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. BY FRIDAY...MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SHOULD RECOVER BACK
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CIGS OF 5-7K FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WESTERLY SYNOPTICALLY
INDUCED WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLIES TAKE OVER TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS HAVE SLACKENED OFF OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN
12 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO BOTH SE CA
AND SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM WED ON INTO SAT...WITH HIGHS WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SAT. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON TUE AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FROM THU ONWARD INTO SAT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES...THAT WILL BE KEPT IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BY OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WILL BECOME FAIR TO GOOD FROM
THU ON INTO SAT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MCLANE
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
550 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 50 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN SPOTS BUT
COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AN INCOMING DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THIS MAY
ACT TO KEEP GUST FREQUENCY REDUCED OR MINIMAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL
RAMPING UP. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY MID EVENING.
WINDS TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD
COVER STILL LOOKING TO BE IN PLACE. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME MORE
FREQUENT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL STEADILY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN
ALLOWING FOR A STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH
THE DAY. A SECOND LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COOL FRONT
BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE LAKE AS THIS OCCURS TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT
GUSTS WILL PUSH 30 KT BY LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH
SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LAKE TEMPERING MIXING TO SOME DEGREE. SPEEDS MAY COME UP
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE MERGING LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. AM NOT EXPECTING GALES AT THIS POINT BUT
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT COULD BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL
TURN WESTERLY AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON THE
EVOLUTION. LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON THE WIND FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. DO
HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT A NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LAKE AS THE LOW PASSES BUT IT COULD BE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST.
WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM WIND SPEEDS COULD
STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP GUST SPEEDS JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
511 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Mid-level deck pushing eastward as high pressure pushes away from
the region should reach KPIA and KSPI by 12z TAF valid time and
spread to KCMI by 16z. CIGs are generally above 070 and IFR
conditions should persist through the TAF period.
Bigger concern will be the potential for LLWS tonight as pressure
gradient increases between the retreating 1031mb high and a
strong low pressure system over the high plains. BUFKIT soundings
from NAM and GFS indicate potential for occasional 40 kt winds
from 210-250 degrees around 2 kft AGL across the western TAF
sites. Since the best chances seem to be after 06z, will hold off
mentioning LLWS for now. However, if trends continue in later
model runs, aviators should be prepared for significant shear late
tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
633 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND INTO
THE MARITIMES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO FIT THE CURRENT
TRENDS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF SNOW ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL AS RAIN. AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD PIVOTS ONSHORE...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND BACK TO THE WEST. CURRENTLY SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ABOUT 10
DEGREES...IS ERODING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WITH TIME AS THE COLUMN BECOMES
SATURATED. WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO PICK UP WITH PEAK WINDS
BEING REPORTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AS OF 07Z WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SEVERAL FORECAST
CHALLENGES STILL EXIST TODAY...MAINLY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
MESOSCALE BANDING THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREA OF NARROW
BUT STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE COME WESTWARD A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE NARROW
NATURE OF THE BAND WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A STORY OF
HAVES AND HAVE NOTS TODAY...AND BY A PRETTY THIN MARGIN.
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE
NAM...GFS...CANADIANS...ECMWF...AND HRRR TO DRIVE THE FORECAST
TODAY. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THAT THE BAND WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE
OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NH...WITH A
GREATER INLAND EXTENT ACROSS THE MID COAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN TO 32-33 DEGREES OR SO IN
PLACES WHERE THE BAND AND IT/S ASSOCIATED STRONG OMEGA SITS
OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD HELP THESE AREAS TO FLIP OVER TO SNOW. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED ACCUMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE...INCLUDING PORTLAND. WHILE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE REACHED IN MANY SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF A HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND WARRANTS
ONE...ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST MAINE HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AS HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACHIEVED. THE BIG WINNER MAY END
UP BEING THE CAMDEN HILLS.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FLUID AND CHANGEABLE TODAY DEPENDING
ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE BAND...SO BUST POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW
IS CERTAINLY HIGH. FOR EXAMPLE...IF THE BAND STAYS OFFSHORE OF
PORTLAND...LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL THERE...BUT WE THINK IT WILL COME
ONSHORE FOR A FEW HOURS. IF IT COMES IN AND SITS...MORE SNOW
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST IT COMES...NOT REALLY
SURE AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...FROM PAST EXPERIENCE...BANDING
TENDS TO COME A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT.
OUR CURRENT SNOWFALL GRAPHIC TAKES IN ACCOUNT OUR LATEST THOUGHTS
IN A NUTSHELL.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED. THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.
A VERY FLUID SITUATION TODAY...STAY TUNED!
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE WINDING UP IN OUR AREA AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM LIFTS NNE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING. FAR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE A FEW MORE FLAKES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY SOMERSET TO WALDO AND EASTWARD. WEST WINDS AND
DRY SLOTTING MOVES IN QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING. MONDAY
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE SAME EXTENT AS SUNDAY. AS
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE
TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT ESSENTIALLY
KEEPS US IN NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S.
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS OVER-RUNNING PATTERN
SETS UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST LIFT GENERALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RETURN
FLOW OF WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS EDGING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. EXPECT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY AND
BROAD OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO OVER-SPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE ANOTHER SOAKER AS GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISING SEVERAL INCHES OF QPF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PRECIP
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TODAY IN RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED 15Z TO 23Z
TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR THE OCEAN AND GALES ON
THE BAYS FOR TODAY AS STRONG COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED SOUTHERNMOST MAINE
AND SEACOAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ009-
013-014-021-022-026>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ008-
019-020-024-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ006-008>010-
013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO MOST NRN 2/3 OF
AREA INTO EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SECONDARY SHRT
WV ROTATING INTO BASE OF UPR TROF PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
WITH ENHANCED SCU NOW MOVING INTO NE NC. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR
MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND INDICATE A LIGHT QPF THREAT
OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA INTO AFTN. INCREASED POPS ACCORDINLGY...WITH
50/60 POPS FOR AREAS E OF HWY 17 AND NE OF HWY 70. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THESE AREAS AS WELL.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL/JBM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY YET THIS
MORNING BUT MOSTLY VIRGA...WITH A QUITE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT WITH A VORT LOBE LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR WERE HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE REALITY OF A TRACE AT THE WFO BISMARCK
COOP SITE FROM PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM A 10 KFT CLOUD
DECK...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN STRONG WAA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ELEVATED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WAA
CONTINUES CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG TO EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE CAA
DEVELOPS WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 5OS TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 PROJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLES WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE GRAZED
BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE COULD CLIP
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WAA...MOST OF THE PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO GENERATE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN TOWARD THE LAKE MANITOBA AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHIFTING WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KISN-KMOT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DROPS DOWN OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
A NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR WERE HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE REALITY OF A TRACE AT THE WFO BISMARCK
COOP SITE FROM PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM A 10 KFT CLOUD
DECK...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN STRONG WAA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ELEVATED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WAA
CONTINUES CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG TO EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE CAA
DEVELOPS WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 5OS TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 PROJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLES WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE GRAZED
BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE COULD CLIP
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WAA...MOST OF THE PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO GENERATE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
954 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUR WAY TODAY. A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
FREEZE. MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY. BACK-TO-BACK COLD
FRONTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE RUC AND MESO NAM AND CEILINGS AT ELKINS...BELIEVE
THAT MOISTURE IS NOW TOO SLIM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION. WILL ALSO LOWER SKY COVER IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY AND BEGINS MOVING OUT TUESDAY
AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SLOWED POPS DOWN
SOME TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY. SOME DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING OF BEST FORCING. GFS HAS IT ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER. SO DID NOT GO LIKELY
POPS YET...HOPING FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL CLEAR THINGS UP.
BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS...AND USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND FOR LOWS. OVERALL TRENDS WERE JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COMES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MUCH OF THE ENERGY GOES INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
NATION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LIFTS TOWARD
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CATCH UP TO THE
FIRST FRONT AND DIVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. NOT ENOUGH DEEP INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. THUS...MILD AND
SHOWERY WEATHER THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THEREAFTER...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR SOME POST FRONTAL MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS IN COLD 850 THERMAL TROF...DRYING UP DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SOME CEILINGS STILL AROUND 1 THSD FT BKN
OVER CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE MOST CEILINGS 25 HND TO 5 THSD FT
BKN.
AFTER 18Z...CEILINGS UNLIMITED AND VSBY UNRESTRICTED. PATCHES OF
MID DECK POSSIBLE AOA 10 THSD FT 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WITH SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z...THEN SUBSIDING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST
AFTER SUNRISE 12Z TO 14Z ALONG WESTERN SLOPES AND IN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE CLOUDS FINALLY LIFT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AT MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NARROW STRIP OF NW
FLOW UPSLOPED INDUCED CLOUDS STEADILY DISSIPATING ALONG THE TN
LINE. OTHER THAN A FEW WISPY CIRRUS LATER TODAY...THIS WILL PERMIT
CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CHILLY THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE DESPITE THE
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...AND THAT IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN THE MTNS
WHERE THE SNOWPACK WILL START TO MELT OFF. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE ENDED THIS MORNING...BUT SOME MOUNTAIN ROADS IN
SHADOWS WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW END GUSTS
IN THE NW FLOW BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL PERMIT WINDS TO
GO LIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET BEEN SHUT OFF. THE
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT LOOKS ON
TARGET...WITH JUST THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION MORE QUESTIONABLE
FOR FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THESE AREAS...FROST COULD BE
WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST SUN...H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT...OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY TUE MORNING. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP BY TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
STATES ON MON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL
YIELD CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS. BY TUE
NIGHT...POPS RAMP UP TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
MTNS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MON AND WARM
TO NEAR CLIMO BY TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130AM EST SUN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON WED AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE SE STATES THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...THEN LIFTS NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRI NIGHT.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ON
WED...REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS BY AROUND 6Z THU. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z THU AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI. LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER
DURING THE FROPA AS AREAS OF BETTER JET STREAK ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND STRONGER PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LIMITED
BUOYANCY...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL ATT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 30-50 PERCENT RANGE LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU...TAPERING OFF BY THU EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRI INTO SAT WITH LINGERING NW PRECIP POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TN LINE THROUGH EARLY FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU....5-7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS...SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE
TODAY...WITH NAM AND RAP PROFILES SUGGESTING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS
INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ONCE MIXING STARTS...CONTINUING UNTIL
NEAR SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TOWARD DAYBREAK...QUITE A BIT OF FROST
COULD FORM ON AIRPLANES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN
A FEW THIN HIGH CIRRUS. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH MIXING
TODAY...PERHAPS TO 20 KT OR BETTER...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT NW THIS
EVENING. FROST FORMATION UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AT THE AIRFIELDS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL START TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME CEILING/VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
SCZ004>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
153 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S EACH DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING INLAND FROM THE WEST IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE 1ST FALL/WINTER SEASON UPPER TROF OF THE SEASON...THAT HAS
BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR CWA
TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT HAD BEEN
SEEN EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON
CWA`S...PRODUCING FLAGSTAFF`S 1ST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...AND EVEN
SOME TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SE AZ AT THIS HOUR.
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL SHOWS THIS CLEARING TREND CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ANY REMAINING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT STILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX ENDING
AT/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH MANY
OF THE OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING THEIR 1ST MID TO UPPER
40`S OF THE SEASON FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH THE PHX URBAN CORE
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROF IS
NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AZ DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO KEEP HEIGHTS/TEMPS DOWN A
BIT LONGER...WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE SAME...OR
EVEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT ON MONDAY...AS EVEN DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH HELPS TO AID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB TEMPS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD TO KEEP MOST LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW YO MID 70S ON MONDAY...AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND EURO MODEL SUITES CONTINUE THE SOLN OF SLOWLY
SHIFTING THE MAIN LONG-WAVE RIDGING BACK EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS RECOVERING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ALLOWING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LOW TO MID CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT AND ARE SHOULD BE GONE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS MOSTLY WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
WINDS WESTERLY TURNING TO NORTH THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF ARIZONA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST. AFTN HIGHS IN THE
70S CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY THEN
RECOVERING SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...WATERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S EACH DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING INLAND FROM THE WEST IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE 1ST FALL/WINTER SEASON UPPER TROF OF THE SEASON...THAT HAS
BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR CWA
TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT HAD BEEN
SEEN EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON
CWA`S...PRODUCING FLAGSTAFF`S 1ST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...AND EVEN
SOME TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SE AZ AT THIS HOUR.
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL SHOWS THIS CLEARING TREND CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ANY REMAINING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT STILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX ENDING
AT/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH MANY
OF THE OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING THEIR 1ST MID TO UPPER
40`S OF THE SEASON FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH THE PHX URBAN CORE
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROF IS
NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AZ DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO KEEP HEIGHTS/TEMPS DOWN A
BIT LONGER...WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE SAME...OR
EVEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT ON MONDAY...AS EVEN DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH HELPS TO AID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB TEMPS. THE AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD TO KEEP MOST LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW YO MID 70S ON MONDAY...AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND EURO MODEL SUITES CONTINUE THE SOLN OF SLOWLY
SHIFTING THE MAIN LONG-WAVE RIDGING BACK EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS RECOVERING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ALLOWING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CIGS OF 5-7K FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WESTERLY SYNOPTICALLY
INDUCED WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLIES TAKE OVER TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS HAVE SLACKENED OFF OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN
12 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO BOTH SE CA
AND SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM WED ON INTO SAT...WITH HIGHS WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SAT. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON TUE AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FROM THU ONWARD INTO SAT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES...THAT WILL BE KEPT IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BY OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WILL BECOME FAIR TO GOOD FROM
THU ON INTO SAT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
153 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT INTO THIS EVENING.
* LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AGAIN TOMORROW.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE SET
UP BEHIND THE HIGH AND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THINKING THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ARND 50 KT AT 2000 FT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP.
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY WITH GUSTS ARND 20 KT TOMORROW...AND SHOULD
ALSO SEE LOW END VFR CLOUDS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GUSTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
130 PM CST
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HAS SET UP A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE
LAKE...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING WINDS...WHILE VEERING A LITTLE MORE
SLWY. ANTICIPATE THAT WINDS REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH ARND 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY
WITH THE STRONG SLWY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PLAINS LOW...BUT COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FROPA SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER.
HOWEVER...WITH FLOW BEING OFF SHORE THROUGH THE ADVISORY
PERIOD...THE ADVISORY WILL BE FOR STRONG WINDS RATHER THAN HIGH
WAVES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BY THE TIME THE LOW
SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SETTING UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH GALES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY AND THEN DROP OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1155 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
High pressure ridge sliding past the forecast area this morning
with southerly flow setting up on the back side of the axis.
Temperatures a little ahead of schedule, in spite of the cloud
cover over the western half of the CWA. More sunshine in the east
through the morning hours, but longer with the WAA and southerly
flow in the east under the clouds...both adding up to the temps
needing a bump a couple degrees. Some minor adjustments overall,
but sending out update momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Main issues are bkn/sct mid clouds and LLWS for later tonight. High
pressure ridge over Central Illinois, but some mid level clouds
edging into the western terminals. ILX 12Z sounding a little dry
btwn 8000-11000 ft, so some of the eastern edge is eroding as it
progresses eastward. SCT in BMI CMI and DEC, slowly giving way to
more BKN this afternoon. Southerly winds a little gusty as the
pressure gradient kicks in. Two main concerns for the TAF pd...
one being the persistence of a BKN cig or SCT later this afternoon
with a brief break before more moisture moves in from the SW.
Somewhat optimistic forecast scattering out in the overnight. WS
is a big issue with the last few runs. Best WS after 06z, but
getting going just before that, so went with 04z in the TAFS,
speed and directional. From sfc to 2kft, veering to SWrly and up
to 40kts. Some discrepancies btwn 35 and 45 kts and SW vs
SSW...but forecast starting the trend. Late evening flights may
start to see the impacts, even if bulk of the issue will occur
after midnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1135 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CST
QUIET AND COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITS THE MIDWEST...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACK SIDE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A BIT A MODERATING EFFECT ON THE COOL DOWN
TONIGHT FARTHER WEST...AND THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THAT SAID...EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EXPERIENCED ACROSS
MANY AREAS THUS FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON...WITH MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM DOWNTOWN IN THE 20S. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT AS
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERIES OCCUR.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW IN PLACE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUT AHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE AND GIVEN THE COOL START EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REBOUND TO NEAR 50.
WAA RAMPS UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST BATCH OF
CLOUDS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 850H TEMPS
GREATER THAN +10C AND EVEN STRONGER SW LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WE SHOULD BE
PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEADING OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...THUS KEPT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON ON MONDAY DRY. THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SPLITTY...THUS NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER.
HIGHS DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...THE MID 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS ALREADY INTO NW INDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEADED
EAST...THUS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
248 AM CST
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT THE FLOW GETS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE A ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDS
INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT LESS OF AN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES ON
THROUGH. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING RAIN...BUT THERE IS A HEALTHY SURGE
OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND
ENDING P-TYPE IN THE NORTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
WHILE MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THESE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS TO HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER. EITHER WAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN NW
INDY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS PROGGED TO TARGET THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT INTO THIS EVENING.
* LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* S TO SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AGAIN TOMORROW.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE SET
UP BEHIND THE HIGH AND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THINKING THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ARND 50 KT AT 2000 FT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP.
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY WITH GUSTS ARND 20 KT TOMORROW...AND SHOULD
ALSO SEE LOW END VFR CLOUDS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG GUSTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE SHRA AT NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL STEADILY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN
ALLOWING FOR A STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH
THE DAY. A SECOND LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COOL FRONT
BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE LAKE AS THIS OCCURS TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT
GUSTS WILL PUSH 30 KT BY LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH
SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE LAKE TEMPERING MIXING TO SOME DEGREE. SPEEDS MAY COME UP
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE MERGING LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. AM NOT EXPECTING GALES AT THIS POINT BUT
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT COULD BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL
TURN WESTERLY AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON THE
EVOLUTION. LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON THE WIND FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. DO
HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT A NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LAKE AS THE LOW PASSES BUT IT COULD BE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST.
WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM WIND SPEEDS COULD
STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP GUST SPEEDS JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
High pressure ridge sliding past the forecast area this morning
with southerly flow setting up on the back side of the axis.
Temperatures a little ahead of schedule, in spite of the cloud
cover over the western half of the CWA. More sunshine in the east
through the morning hours, but longer with the WAA and southerly
flow in the east under the clouds...both adding up to the temps
needing a bump a couple degrees. Some minor adjustments overall,
but sending out update momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
07z/1am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio River Valley. Clear skies and
light winds beneath the high have led to another chilly night across
central Illinois, with current temps ranging from the middle 20s
near the Indiana border to the lower 30s across the Illinois River
Valley where a light SE return flow has developed. Further west, an
area of cloudiness associated with warm advection/isentropic lift is
approaching the Mississippi River. None of the models are handling
this area of moisture very well, with both the NAM and HRRR lagging
a few hours behind with its eastward progression. Based on
satellite timing tools, clouds will spill into west-central Illinois
over the next couple of hours and will approach the I-57 corridor
toward 12z. Once clouds arrive, they will likely stick around for
much of the day as isentropic lift increases and condensation
pressure deficits decrease. As surface high moves away from the
region and pressure gradient tightens, gusty southerly winds will
develop today. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
highest gusts of around 25 mph will develop along/west of the I-55
corridor. Despite strong southerly flow, mid-level overcast will
temper warming trend. As a result, will go near or slightly below
guidance numbers, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Upper-level ridge will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to
the warmest day of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate
mid-level drying beneath the ridge, which will result in a mostly
sunny day. In addition, strong southerly winds gusting to around 25
mph will bring warmer air into the region. Have therefore gone
slightly above guidance with high temperatures climbing into the
lower to middle 60s.
Western CONUS wave is still expected to flatten the ridge and drive
a strong cold front through Illinois on Tuesday. Due to an
initially very dry airmass in place across the region, think precip
will be confined immediately along/behind front within a narrow
plume of deep-layer moisture. Given this fact and the expected
timing of the front, have increased PoPs to categorical across the
Illinois River Valley Monday night, while maintaining dry conditions
east of the I-55 corridor until after midnight. Showers will spread
across the entire CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning before
gradually ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models have sped up the departure of the front a bit, so will only
carry low chance PoPs across the far E/SE into Tuesday night, then
have gone dry across the board on Wednesday.
Models are beginning to come into better agreement concerning
northern stream short-wave dropping into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Previous ECMWF had kept the wave much further north
across the Great Lakes, but the 00z Nov 2 run now brings the
feature much further south into Illinois like the GFS has been
showing. GEM is also on board with the more southern solution, so
confidence is growing that clouds/showers will spread back into
the area Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday as well. Have
adjusted grids accordingly. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail into next weekend, ensuring the continuation of below
normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
Mid-level deck pushing eastward as high pressure pushes away from
the region should reach KPIA and KSPI by 12z TAF valid time and
spread to KCMI by 16z. CIGs are generally above 070 and IFR
conditions should persist through the TAF period.
Bigger concern will be the potential for LLWS tonight as pressure
gradient increases between the retreating 1031mb high and a
strong low pressure system over the high plains. BUFKIT soundings
from NAM and GFS indicate potential for occasional 40 kt winds
from 210-250 degrees around 2 kft AGL across the western TAF
sites. Since the best chances seem to be after 06z, will hold off
mentioning LLWS for now. However, if trends continue in later
model runs, aviators should be prepared for significant shear late
tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
GUSTY S/SE WINDS 15-30 MPH USHERING IN MILDER AIR WITH TEMPS 5-10+
DEGS WARMER FROM 24 HRS AGO. 2 PM TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID 50S FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE PERSISTENT MID CLOUDINESS FINALLY
MOVING EAST. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS THE TEMPS
HAVE MANAGED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 50 OR LOWER 50S. MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS AND OBS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TX TO WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TONIGHT... MID CLOUDS TO EXIT FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT. CANT TOTALLY RULE
OUT EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT BUT
PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR MAY LIMIT TO MAINLY VIRGA THUS NO
MENTION. LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD KEEP BL MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IF NOT
A LITTLE ABOVE DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND HAVE LOWS IN RANGE OF
37-44F.
MONDAY... BREEZY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN LOOKS TO
LARGELY REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM
WESTERN IA THROUGH OK WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BENEATH
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... WITH SECONDARY DEFORMATION
RAIN SWATH EMERGING FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AS THE MOIST AXIS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS. SOUTH WINDS 15-30 MPH
TO CONTINUE USHERING IN WARMER AIR AND DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BOOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 60S
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
MONDAY NIGHT... INCREASING LIFT (APPROACHING FRONT... UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK) COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
(PWATS 1-1.3+ INCHES) TO SUPPORT PERIOD OF RAIN MANY LOCATIONS.
HEAVIEST RAINS AT THIS TIME FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD WHERE
BEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0.4 TO 0.6 INCH POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS SUGGESTED
AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO BE NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z TUE.
MILDEST LOWS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FROM AROUND 50 OR LOWER
50S... WHILE COOLEST FAR NORTHWEST CWA (LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER MID WEST..HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. MODEL TO MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT..MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD
CONVERGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WHERE THIS SYSTEM
WILL ULTIMATELY GO. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SEEM REASONABLE
TO MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUN MODEL RUNS PROG THE TROF THAT PASSED
OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DIG AN
IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AS
THIS TROF/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATES NORTHEAST IT WILL CREATE A BROAD
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
BROAD FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS PROG ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH S/SE WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. DESPITE SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLY LINGERING TONIGHT DID ADD MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WITH NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS IN 1500-2000FT AGL RANGE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK TROF RAN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH 30S FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE.
EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATES CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT MORE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING PRESENT AS THE MOISTURE MOVES IN WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME VIRGA DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
A RATHER ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE TEMPERATURES
GO FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK...BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY IN THE PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHARPEN THE FOCUS OF RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT TO PRIMARILY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT. THUS... PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND LEADING EDGE
OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT APPROACHES. THE LATER ONSET OF RAIN ADDS
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ADVERTISED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT...THE CONSISTENT
EVENT TIMING BACKS NOW OUT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WHAT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKE A WIDESPREAD...BUT RATHER LOW...QPF EVENT.
DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL SHOWING SEASONABLY HIGH PW
VALUES...THE QUICK SHOT OF MID LEVEL FORCING AND VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END EARLY AND POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO
DEPART...LIMITING TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WHAT HAD BEEN A WEEK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE 00Z CYCLE.
CONSIDERING THIS LARGE SHIFT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE RELATED
UPPER JET MAX AND MI LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH IN
THE DATA-SPARSE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF AK...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL ANTICIPATE MANY MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE MODELS NARROW DOWN A MORE CONSISTENT TRACK. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THE WARMER...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN CONSENSUS HIGHS IN THE 50S...WHICH
WOULD BE TOO WARM IF THE SYSTEM DOES OPT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS THEN SHOWN
TO DIG A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S....SENDING COLD AIR
AT 850 MB SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE 40S FOR THU AND FRIDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S THU NIGHT...IN THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER THE NEXT RIDGE AXIS. CURRENT CONSENSUS THEN
SHOWS A MINOR WARMING TREND LEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH S/SE WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. DESPITE SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLY LINGERING TONIGHT DID ADD MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WITH NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS IN 1500-2000FT AGL RANGE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP FROM VERY CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE OF 50 DEGREE READINGS NOTED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL HAVE A MODERATE RIDGE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EAST
KENTUCKY WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AS ANY ENERGY AT THE MID LEVELS STAY
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING AS
COLD OR A TOUCH COLDER MONDAY MORNING THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM CONCLUDED
FOR THIS YEAR EARLIER TODAY. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS
THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. AGAIN GOOD CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND A MILDER
STARTING POINT FOR THE NIGHTLY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. ALSO USED THE MAX AND MIN GRIDS FROM THIS BLENDED MODEL
AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME MAJOR ELEVATIONALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS
EACH NIGHT OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SETUP FOR FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OUT OF
THE UPPER PLAINS. AS WELL AT THIS TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG A
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM TRACKS EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE FIRST WAVES TRACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS TRY TO FORM A COASTAL LOW WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTH SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW BOTH
MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WAVE TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UP
AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS THE SUPER
BLEND MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON POPS TO START THE EVENT ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AGAIN FOR WED AND THU.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVING STRONGER WAVE AFTERWARD PUTS NEEDED
FORCING IN QUESTION. THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE NEXT
STRONGER WAVE DIVES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
THE EURO AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS TRACKS A DEVELOPED
SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHEREAS THE EURO IS MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH A COASTAL LOW RACKING NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY FOR POPS...DID STICK WITH THE
SUPER BLEND MODEL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT AVERAGE
OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WX QUIET THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY MAKING FOR
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS. JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SITES LATER MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1237 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A WRN TROF...SHARP CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP
ERN TROF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N TO LWR MI AND THEN INTO QUEBEC. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS SEEN ON NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FOR
THAT MATTER WELL UPSTREAM TO THE S AND SW...PCPN IS NOT AN ISSUE
WITH THE ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
DESPITE CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN HIGH PRES SHIFTING E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVELS REMAINING TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERNS TODAY
AND EVEN ON INTO TONIGHT. UNDER SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...TEMPS
TODAY WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EVEN WITH JUST
SHALLOW MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 925MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS. IF MIXED
LAYER BUILDS JUST A BIT HIGHER...TEMPS WILL TOP 50F. BEST CHC OF
REACHING 50F WILL BE IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT SEE
DOWNSLOPING UNDER S WINDS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING WINDS UP TO
25-30KT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...MAKING THE AIR FEEL COOLER. STEADY
SW FLOW...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
WORK TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT. EXPECT MINS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. INTERIOR LOCATIONS THAT DECOUPLE MORE MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER
20S WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES MAY NOT FALL BLO 40F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT 12Z MONDAY...EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INITIALLY...WITH S WINDS USHERING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
OUT AHEAD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP SLIDING IN FROM THE SW SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE TO AROUND 50F. HELD OFF OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE FCST AS THE 500MB
RIDGE EXITS TO LAKE HURON AND THE SFC LOW STRETCHES FROM E MANITOBA
TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED DOWN OVER FAR
E MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW TO PUSH ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...SWEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER MI.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT E UPPER MI TUESDAY MORNING...WITH COOL W-NW
FLOW RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL BE THE ONLY THING LEFT AFTER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS E WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EXITING LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND N QUEBEC. W-NW FLOW WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY THURSDAY /WARMEST ALONG LAKE MI/.
850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN -6 TO -8C WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
HOW CLOSE THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL GET TO US FROM THE S ON THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER E MT/W ND AT 06Z WEDNESDAY...SINKING
ACROSS IA BY 00Z THURSDAY..AND NEAR THE S TIP OF LAKE MI BY 12Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MERGE WITH AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE A LONGER THAN FCST PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WITH 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -12C. THE NEXT LOW OF INTEREST OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND MERGES WITH THE THE INITIAL
LOW DEEPENING AS IT EJECTS N ACROSS THE NE ENGLAND STATES AND E
CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE AREA IS
STILL EXPERIENCING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LLWS AT KIWD/KSAW THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...BUT WITH IT BEING
MARGINAL OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A LOW
PRES TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT SOUTHERLY WINDS
MOSTLY IN THE 10-20KT RANGE TODAY/TONIGHT THOUGH OCNL PERIODS OF
15-25KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON MON...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE TUE/TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO
E WED/WED NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THU...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF WHERE WINDS WILL REACH 15-25KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
953 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS ALLOWING FOR SOME DRY SLOTTING
ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTHEAST IT WILL WRAP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY. HRRR MODEL RUNS STILL
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE MAINLY FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD. SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES AS WELL DUE TO THE DRY SLOT SO HAVE DECREASED SKY
COVER GRIDS QUITE A BIT TO WORD MORE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT IN THE
LIVINGSTON AREA AND STRONG WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TODAY. AS
A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE WESTERLY AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH TODAY. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OFF THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS BROUGHT SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TO EASTERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY. BURGESS JUNCTION RAWS REPORTED GUSTS TO JUST
UNDER 60 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF MINOR DAMAGE DUE TO THESE SUDDEN NON CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS DEPICTING A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PRESENCE OF THIS DRIER AIR PLAYS WELL INTO
THE DOWNTICK IN POP FORECASTS FOR THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE
PAST FEW FORECAST SHIFTS. WEB CAMERAS AT COOKE CITY SHOW SNOW ON
THE GROUND...BUT NOTHING PRESENTLY FALLING...DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOTTING. AS THE DAY GOES ON AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...MORE MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME AVAILABLE...AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA RANGES SHOULD BEGIN.
EXPECT A FEW INCHES OR SO TO ACCUMULATE UP THERE...BUT FOR THE
FOOTHILL AND PLAINS AREAS IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINY...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKE OR TWO. INHERITED POP FORECASTS LOOKED
PRETTY GOOD. QUESTION IS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP
MAKES IT TO BILLINGS TODAY. KEPT POP VALUES LOWER FROM BILLINGS
EAST...BUT COULD EASILY SEE THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM BRING A
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY SHOWER TO THE MAGIC CITY.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO
THE DAKOTAS AND...AS A RESULT...BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY
MIDDAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...THE WINDS WILL SLACK
OFF AND DRY AND CALMER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME
COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BYZ GAP WIND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL WIND
EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON. THE SURFACE FLOW AND 700MB WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION ARE IN THE PREFERRED BOUNDS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING...AS THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN AND AROUND
THOSE AREAS. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG RANGE
ALSO STARTING TO LINE UP. CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS
REMAINS LOW AS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUING TO SHOW
UP.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING OVER SC/SE MT TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW AND
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE. OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS-
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH GAP FLOW WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE. STRENGTHENING
700MB WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. GFS HAS COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN MAINTAINING A ZONAL
FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A VORTICITY MAX
DRIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SHOWING A MAJOR SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IN THAT IT IS NOW BRINGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SHOWING A
ZONAL SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREADS EACH MODEL IS
SHOWING...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS
TODAY BUT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM KLVM
TO K6S0 INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 032/050 034/058 042/059 040/064 045/060 037/058
2/W 21/U 01/E 11/B 10/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 050 028/048 031/050 038/057 039/061 041/057 034/056
3/W 31/B 02/W 11/N 01/B 11/N 11/B
HDN 060 030/055 029/059 037/060 034/067 040/062 032/059
2/W 21/B 01/B 11/B 10/B 10/B 21/B
MLS 057 030/050 028/057 039/053 033/062 041/059 032/052
2/W 10/U 01/B 11/B 01/B 11/N 21/B
4BQ 060 031/050 028/058 039/055 034/065 040/061 031/055
0/B 10/B 01/B 11/B 00/B 00/N 21/B
BHK 058 029/046 028/052 036/048 031/056 038/057 030/047
0/B 11/N 01/B 11/E 00/B 00/N 21/B
SHR 060 030/049 026/058 032/059 032/066 037/061 030/058
2/W 32/W 01/B 11/B 00/B 00/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NE SECTIONS DUE
TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO MOST NRN 2/3 OF
AREA INTO EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SECONDARY
SHRT WV ROTATING INTO BASE OF UPR TROF PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH ENHANCED SCU NOW MOVING INTO NE NC. LATEST NAM12 AND
HRRR MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND INDICATE A LIGHT QPF
THREAT OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA INTO AFTN. INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINLGY...WITH 50/60 POPS FOR AREAS E OF HWY 17 AND NE OF HWY
70. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THESE AREAS AS WELL.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE AND CAA WILL
PRODUCE SCU CIGS AROUND 5K FT THIS AFTN WITH A FEW SPRINKLES PSBL AT
KEWN AND KPGV. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SKC
TONIGHT INTO MON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO DROP GALES TO SCA FOR WATERS S
OF OCRACOKE INLET AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG SCA AS
EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1143 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NE SECTIONS DUE
TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO MOST NRN 2/3 OF
AREA INTO EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SECONDARY
SHRT WV ROTATING INTO BASE OF UPR TROF PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH ENHANCED SCU NOW MOVING INTO NE NC. LATEST NAM12 AND
HRRR MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND INDICATE A LIGHT QPF
THREAT OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA INTO AFTN. INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINLGY...WITH 50/60 POPS FOR AREAS E OF HWY 17 AND NE OF HWY
70. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THESE AREAS AS WELL.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING DEPARTING
LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS OVER E NC.
PRES RISES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RUC ANALYSIS. GRADIENT
WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT GUSTIEST WINDS
ALONG THE OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS DEEP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH
E NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUID
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ADD TO THIS GUSTY NW WINDS AND
IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME BKN STRATO CU WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM SUN...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS E NC. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS TD`S ONLY IN THE 20S. IT
APPEARS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRODUCING NW WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...ESP THE OBX AND COUNTIES BORERING ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
POSSIBLY REMAINING MIXED HERE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE
WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
MONDAY THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SW
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND BACKED FLOW ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON THURSDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED WITH A
DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO DROP GALES TO SCA FOR WATERS S
OF OCRACOKE INLET AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG SCA AS
EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HAVE
CANCELLED GALES FOR THE SOUNDS AND REPLACED WITH SCA AS FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT. PRES RISES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE...WHERE GALES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALES TO LAST LONGEST FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. 7 TO 10 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT THEN 1 TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 2
TO 4 FT. THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE OCCURRING ALONG VULNERABLE
COASTLINES...PARTICULARLY THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN OBX. HAVE
REPLACED THE WARNING WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS LOW TIDE IS
APPROACHING AND WORST OF THE FLOODING HAS PASSED. WILL STILL
SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090>093-098.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ045-046-080-081-094-095.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. DID ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY YET THIS
MORNING BUT MOSTLY VIRGA...WITH A QUITE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT WITH A VORT LOBE LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR WERE HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE REALITY OF A TRACE AT THE WFO BISMARCK
COOP SITE FROM PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM A 10 KFT CLOUD
DECK...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN STRONG WAA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ELEVATED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. WAA
CONTINUES CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG TO EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE CAA
DEVELOPS WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 5OS TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 PROJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COUPLES WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE GRAZED
BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE COULD CLIP
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WAA...MOST OF THE PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO GENERATE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN TOWARD THE LAKE MANITOBA AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHIFTING WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KISN-KMOT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DROPS DOWN OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
A NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Tricky situation next 24 hours, as the upper-lvl trough approaches
West Texas/SE NM. VFR conditions prevail all terminals, but latest
NAM buffer soundings develop LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys everywhere but
KFST/KPEQ overnight, beginning around 06Z. However, the HRRR and
GFS keep these conditions east of the area. Given the position of
the trough, a strong LLJ is expected overnight, w/models
suggesting 50+kts possible over the PB. This, combined w/abundant
high cloud to retard radiational cooling, suggests cigs/vsbys will
be somewhat better than what buffer soundings suggest. Current
TAFs keep MVFR or better for the next 24 hours, and see no reason
to take them any lower attm. Conditions should improve to VFR all
terminals by 18Z Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
The main focus this forecast period continues to be a deep trough
currently over the western CONUS which will move through our region
over the next couple of days, and associated precipitation chances.
Models continue to be in good agreement regarding the progressive
nature of the aforementioned trough, which will develop an
increasingly positive tilt as it moves toward the central CONUS.
Persistent, deep southwesterly flow will allow for continued
moisture transport ahead of the system, ultimately resulting in
precipitable water values of roughly 1.00" to 1.20" across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico per model soundings. While
precipitation chances tonight are highest over higher terrain,
Monday through Tuesday will see the chance for precipitation
overspread the rest of the area. Model soundings for Monday
afternoon indicate the presence of weak elevated CAPE, and given
ample ascent under the right entrance region of an upper level jet
rounding the base of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. While the
current threat of severe weather is marginal, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with storms that develop, and localized flash
flooding may be a concern, especially if training occurs.
The Monday night through Tuesday time frame still looks to be the
best window of opportunity for widespread measurable rainfall from
this system as the dynamics of the advancing trough combine with a
cold front that is progged to move south through the area.
Precipitation will then be shunted further to the south and east as
drier air filters in behind the front, with dry conditions expected
from Wednesday evening onward. Temperatures Tuesday will drop well
below normal due to the aforementioned front, resulting in very
little diurnal recovery as highs will top out in the middle 50s to
low 60s. Surface high pressure will sink southward through the
plains and into North Texas by Thursday into Friday, resulting in
winds veering to the south as temperatures slowly moderate back
toward normal. Both the GFS and ECMWF currently indicate another
shortwave dropping south on the back side of the trough, which could
drag another cold front through the area on Saturday, though a lack
of available moisture would preclude any mention of precipitation.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland
Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS IS GENERATING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ARE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LOWER DECK DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN AS LOWER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO SIGN OF THIS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM AND 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL RATHER LARGE BASED
ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS. WILL BRING IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL
ANOTHER PUSH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVES LATE. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND. LOWS RANGING THROUGH
THE 30S.
MONDAY...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THOUGH
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT SUPER DRY
THOUGH...AND ANY SHOWERS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP TO
THE GROUND. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS TIME AND
WILL HAVE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE DRY AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF
PRECIP FOR THE MORNING BUT CHANCES WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE
MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
SATURATION AND BEING POSITIONED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET.
WARMER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE
NORTH WHILE THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IS TO
THE SOUTH. EXPECT A LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
LACK OF MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE THE MODELS. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AND PRODUCES THE MOST PRECIPITATION. IT ALSO HAS THE
MOST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SOMEWHERE IN WISCONSIN.
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 5000FT CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR SINCE THERE IS NO SIGN OF THIS UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO
MORE BULLISH IN MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. STARTED THE BROKEN CEILINGS BY LATE
MORNING...THOUGH THIS COULD GET PUSHED BACK DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE CURRENTLY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC