Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON SATURDAY...FALLING
FURTHER TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...AND AMOUNTS
VERY LIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN IN EVENING WV IMAGERY ACROSS SRN
ARIZONA EJECTING AHEAD OF THE LARGER FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH
CRASHING INTO THE WRN CONUS. 00Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA DEPICTED A
SUBTLE BACKING OF WINDS AROUND THE H7 LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MIDLEVEL COOLING SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
FOCUSED ASCENT...WHICH HAS LED TO EXTENSIVE ACCAS AND AN ISOLD
TSTM (WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED). RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS AS WELL AS
OTHER ARW AND NMM HIGH RESOLUTION CORES CAPTURED THIS FEATURE AND
ATTENDANT CONVECTION...WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE
EVENING...HOWEVER LARGELY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR SOME SHORT TERM TRENDS IN THIS EVENINGS
UPDATE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SELECTIVELY BUMPED UP A FEW
DEGREES (PARTICULARLY THOUGH SERN CALIFORNIA) AS THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND LACK OF DECOUPLED WINDS DUE TO
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED. ALSO...INVESTIGATION OF NUMEROUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
AND EARLY 00Z MODEL OUTPUT STRONGLY SUGGESTS NOTABLE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGH PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE MOST ACTUAL PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WILL
LIKELY BE TIED WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE CWA...A FEW
ISOLD SPRINKLES/SHOWERS LOOK MORE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS. HAVE MODESTLY INCREASED SOME POPS (AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER) IN
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME THOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO NIL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/315 PM MST FRI OCT 31 2014/
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. VEERING PROFILE IS ALSO EVIDENT
WITH EAST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
700 MB. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW HAS PERSISTED THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION AND THE EFFECTS OF COMPRESSION. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX IS ONLY ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE DAILY RECORD
LAST SET IN 1988.
HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
THAT THIS WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.
DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO BOTH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS
AND SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS SATURDAY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH
BOTH BUFR SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT CIGS IN THE
4K-6K LEVEL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF
LOWER CLOUDS...THE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUDS AND TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT
AND SUBSEQUENT SCATTERING LATER IN THE DAY CARRY MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY... AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY WINDS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
TERMINAL SITES SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VARIABLY
SHIFTING WINDS AROUND FROPA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...STRONGER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
BUT WARMING IN THE WEEK. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAY AND NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. LIGHTER WIND
WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BREEZES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND
THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
WE ARE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE...PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN INDIANA...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AND OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...CURRENT CENTERED ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTHWEST...A RATHER
STOUT 1036 MB HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG NORTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEAD TO A QUICK RAMP UP OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
MEAN MIXING LAYER WIND SPEEDS COULD TOP 40 KT ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE LAKE...MEANING WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY REACH THIS MAGNITUDE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS
DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COULD EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND
50 KT WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON HALLOWEEN...THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
AS LARGE BATTERING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT APPEAR LIKELY...AND AS
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...LAKE LEVELS ARE ABOUT 2 FT
HIGHER THAN PAST YEARS...WHICH COULD MAKE THE IMPACTS OF THESE WAVES
HIGHER THEN SIMILAR WAVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STRONG WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF MY CWA. THIS
INCLUDES AREAS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARVARD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANKAKEE AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA...AS WELL AS
PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND ALSO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING...AND BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRYING OUT BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND STAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE OF A TRUE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. A COLD AIRMASS FEATURING -7 DEGREE C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A 53F (11.7C)
DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURE AT THE SOUTH BUOY. THEREFORE...DELTA T`S
SHOULD END UP VERY FAVORABLE AROUND 19 DEGREES C. IN ADDITION...DEEP
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
LIKELY TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 16,000 FT AGL. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
LIKELY TO BE MORE THAN DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH THE -10 TO -20 LAYER TO
RESULT IN GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND COULD BEGIN TO SET UP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COOK
COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL GET THIS LAKE EFFECT BANDING. SOME HAVE
HINTED IN A FARTHER WEST BAND...WHICH WOULD IMPACT MORE OF THE
CHICAGO AREA. HOWEVER...I THINK AT THIS POINT AREAS IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL BE MORE FAVORED...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY DUE
NORTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTING UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT PORTER
AND LAKE INDIANA WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT THIS
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD BE DRIVEN WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING MUCH OF JASPER AND PORTER COUNTIES AS
WELL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH...AS
SOME WARMER AIR MOVING OFF THE LAKE SHOULD MAKE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVIER PRECIP RATES...IT IS VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT ENHANCED DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN A COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WOULD HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...THOUGH EVEN AREAS ALONG THE LAKE COULD CHANGE
OVER/MIX WITH SNOW. OVERALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (POSSIBLY A FEW
INCHES IN SOME AREAS) ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
4 NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES. IF...HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW DOES NOT PAN OUT AS CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS...WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD
THEN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THEREFORE...IN SPITE OF THE
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN CHANGE OVERS TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL...WE FEEL AT THIS POINT...TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION...AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY SNOW
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO
GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CRASH IN A HURRY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THEREFORE...ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT
GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT AND COME TO AN
END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S AT BEST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NO ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WHILE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.
* CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
DETERIORATING TONIGHT AS SYSTEM/FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
WIND SPEED/GUSTS QUICKLY INCREASING. LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WIND SHIFT...LIKELY PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
QUICKLY FILTERING IN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT
THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTION EXPECTED AS WELL AS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN IN
THIS NORTH DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS ORIENTATION WILL
COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 40 KT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY/FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A TREND BACK TOWARDS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED/GUSTS...MEDIUM HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING OF FROPA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED
12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT. CHANCE OF
SHRA OR SHSN.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT.
* SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE
AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A FAVORABLE AND ANOMALOUS SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER AIDED
BY THE WARM WATERS/EXTREME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE REGULAR HIGHER END
STORM FORCE GUSTS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN THE LAKE RAPIDLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SYNC WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A RAMP UP IN NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF STORM FORCE TO 50 AND POSSIBLY EVEN 55 KT
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...AND AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
THE WAVE MAXIMUM OF OVER 20 FOOTERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EVOLVE SOUTHWARD
REACHING THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WAVES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LAKE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ014...7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM
FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ033...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ019...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...1 AM FRIDAY TO 10
PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY
TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Two waves impacting the short term. The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region. Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature. Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip. Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF. As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.
Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.
Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Mostly VFR through the forecast period. Main issues will be the
afternoon showers that are out there currently. SPI may see a
shower early this afternoon...but the majority of the showers are
scattered, and in concert with a dry low level...will be eroding
somewhat. Main wave/front moving in overnight, bringing a second
chance for showers, though coverage is varied in the models, with
the NAM far drier with the front than the GFS. The HRRR is
starting to come in somewhere in between the two, but taking the
higher RH in the low levels and producing a swath of MVFR clouds
with the fropa. Will take that into account as well and drop the
cigs to the MVFR/VFR break point. Increasing gradient early behind
the boundary picking up the winds in the morning, well ahead of
normal timing for a mix down. Breezy 15-20kt northerly winds
ramping up by 12z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
120 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
1059 AM CDT
GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY ON TRACK WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. THE EMPHASIS ON THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE STRONG AUTUMN SYSTEM FRIDAY.
THE AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES LATE
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A THINNING IN CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN. EXPECTING VARIABILITY
IN SKY TO OCCUR THE REST OF THE DAY THAT WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE OUT
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN SOME
PLACES TO OUTPACE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE TO TWO IN EASTERN AREAS. WEAKER LESS ORGANIZED FORCING
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY RAIN LIGHT OR
EVEN JUST SPRINKLES...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH BEING SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY...THE WINDY DAY AND EVENING CONTINUES ON
TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND IMPACTS BEING NEAR THE
LAKE SHORE. THE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CONTINUING TO BE
WEIGHED AND MODEL DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE LOWEST THERMAL
PROFILES. WITH LIKELY MODEST TO TEMPORARY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
RATES GIVEN THE HIGH LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY...COULD CERTAINLY
REALIZE PRETTY LOW VISIBILITY IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE COOK COUNTY SHORE AT TIMES FRIDAY IF SNOW CAN
BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CDT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DROPPING FAST
OVERNIGHT UNDER FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERING THE
TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO METRO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING
WINDS NEAR CALM. AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WLY...BUT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN
PLACE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND A GENERAL COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE
ALOFT...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND
PUSH INTO NWRN IL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE QUICKLY PUSH SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO NWLY. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 6MB/6HR WILL BRING
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW WINDS ARND 30
MPH AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER OVER LAND...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT THE SFC BY ARND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
308 AM CDT
STRONG UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN LAKES REGION FRIDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO OUR EAST
AND STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH MOST AREAS
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE LESSER FRICTION AND STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
RESULTANT MIXING NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 50+ MPH
NEAR THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY COOK COUNTY AND NW INDIANA SHORE. COULD
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE AREAS WITH A SOLID
WIND ADVISORY EVENT LIKELY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO HOLD OFF
ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.
THE FULL FETCH STORM FORCE WINDS WILL RESULT IN 20FT+
WAVES...PARTICULARLY FOR COOK COUNTY INTO NW INDIANA GIVEN THE
350-360 WIND DIRECTION. LAKE LEVELS ARE NEARLY 2 FEET HIGHER THAN
LAST YEAR AND PREVIOUS YEARS...SO EVEN THOUGH WAVES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS SANDY A FEW YEARS AGO...THE LAKE SHORE FLOODING
IMPACT COULD BE SIMILAR. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELY COASTAL INUNDATION IMPACT
FROM THE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SYNOPTIC PRECIP THREAT
LARGELY ENDING. HOWEVER...VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SET-UP LOOKS
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH VERY HIGH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS UP TO AROUND 20KFT AND UP TO NEARLY -30C. GIVEN
THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF SUPER COOLED LIQUID IN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY. THESE
EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY WITH P-TYPE AS THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...AROUND -8 TO -10C AT 850MB WOULD SOLIDLY
SUPPORT SNOW DESPITE WARM WATER TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL. HAVE GONE
WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THINK THE FARTHER INLAND
AWAY FROM THE LAKE YOU GET THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE FOR ALL SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NW INDIANA. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDED DYNAMIC COOLING AM CONCERNED
THAT SOME PORTIONS OF NW INDIANA...ESPECIALLY A BIT INLAND FROM THE
LAKE...COULD END UP WITH A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON GRASSY SURFACES BY FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO HIT THAT TOO HARD AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY VEER
SO THAT THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD START IN PORTER
COUNTY EARLY FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST INTO LAKE COUNTY
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY INTO SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH AND LAKE EFFECT WINDS
DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS WILL
SEND WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 20S DURING TRICK OR TREATING
HOURS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH EVEN LESS FAVORABLE TRICK OR TREATING
WEATHER IN NW INDIANA UNDER THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VERY
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN
TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL NEXT WEEK RETURNING
TO WHAT WILL FEEL LIKE THE RATHER PLEASANT 50S FOLLOWING FRIDAY`S
FLIRTATION WITH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NO ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WHILE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.
* CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
DETERIORATING TONIGHT AS SYSTEM/FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
WIND SPEED/GUSTS QUICKLY INCREASING. LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WIND SHIFT...LIKELY PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
QUICKLY FILTERING IN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT
THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTION EXPECTED AS WELL AS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN IN
THIS NORTH DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS ORIENTATION WILL
COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 40 KT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY/FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A TREND BACK TOWARDS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED/GUSTS...MEDIUM HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING OF FROPA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED
12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT. CHANCE OF
SHRA OR SHSN.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT.
* SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF HIGH END GALES TO LOW END STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LONGEST DURATION AND HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE
OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING THERE FOR FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE
NORTHWEST INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UP TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IN THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
MAY END UP WITH A MORE OFFSHORE FETCH IN THE 350-360 RANGE LESSENING
THE THREAT OF STORM FORCE WINDS A BIT. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
COULD SEE STORM FORCE GUSTS FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING BUT DURATION
LOOKS TO BE LESS AND CONFIDENCE LOWER...SO JUST HINTED AT THIS
THREAT IN THE GLF. FULL FETCH NORTH STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM KICKING WAVES UP TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 20 FT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM
EVENT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND
EVENTUALLY WAVES TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY. LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK 25-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD DEVELOP AS HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...
LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...1 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740...6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1221 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Small wave moving into the Midwest this morning bringing some
showers across Missouri and into Illinois. Some rain showers
moving into the Jacksonville area early. Have adjusted the pops
for the next few hours for some showers in west central Illinois,
but plenty of dry air in the region will probably help to keep any
widespread precip at bay. Temperatures doing well with minimal
cloud cover to the east ahead of the scattered showers. No major
updates required, but have freshened up the hourly grids as well
as the pops in the short term.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east today
and give way to a weather system approaching from the west. This low
pressure area will move east and then southeast while another low
pressure area moves across the Great Lakes region. Both of these are
associated with an upper level trough that will be moving through
the area today. These features will not have a lot of moisture to
work with, but will bring a chance of showers to the CWA today. Pops
will be only in the chance category and not expecting any
thunderstorms at this time. Light winds this morning will become
southeast, and then easterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should be around 5 to 10 mph.
MOS guidance looks ok, but MAV looks a little warm in the southeast
given the expected cloud cover and chance of pcpn. So, mid to upper
50s looks reasonable for today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
An extended period of below normal temperatures is still expected
across central and southeast Illinois into next week. The coldest
period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze likely
early Saturday and Sunday mornings. A bit too early for a Freeze
Watch being 4th and 6th periods, but will issue a special weather
statement to address the the freezing conditions that will likely
end the growing season. This will be the first hard freeze across
the forecast area and running about two weeks later than normal.
Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal with
actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and wind chill
values in the upper 20s and lower 30s late Friday afternoon into
early Friday evening with blustery north winds gusting to around
35 mph at times Friday afternoon.
The short wave that tracks across MO and sw IL by sunset, and into
the mid MS river valley by midnight tonight, and into western KY/TN
by dawn Fri, will linger chances of rain showers especially over
southeast IL. A much stronger northern stream short wave, currently
diving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great
Lakes/Midwest on Friday. Most of the moisture will be east of IL
Friday and Friday night and just have small chances of light rain
showers in far eastern IL Friday and then mixes with or changes to
light snow by Friday evening over IN. However, this system will be
accompanied by gusty north winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 40
mph and will help usher in the airmass that will provide our hard
freeze for Friday and Saturday nights with lows 25-30F both nights.
Upper level ridging will shift eastward into IL late in the weekend
into early next week with temperatures modifying Mon-Wed with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The ridge will shift east of IL later
Monday into Tue while strong upper level low/trof digs into the
southern Rockies. This puts IL in an unsettled upper level sw flow
and increasing chances of showers Mon-Tue night as a frontal system
sets up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and Tue south of
I-72. Best rain chances will shift se into the Ohio river valley Wed
and lingered 20-30% chances of showers over southeast IL. Drier
weather expected Wed night and Thu with highs still in the 50s on
Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Mostly VFR through the forecast period. Main issues will be the
afternoon showers that are out there currently. SPI may see a
shower early this afternoon...but the majority of the showers are
scattered, and in concert with a dry low level...will be eroding
somewhat. Main wave/front moving in overnight, bringing a second
chance for showers, though coverage is varied in the models, with
the NAM far drier with the front than the GFS. The HRRR is
starting to come in somewhere in between the two, but taking the
higher RH in the low levels and producing a swath of MVFR clouds
with the fropa. Will take that into account as well and drop the
cigs to the MVFR/VFR break point. Increasing gradient early behind
the boundary picking up the winds in the morning, well ahead of
normal timing for a mix down. Breezy 15-20kt northerly winds
ramping up by 12z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
102 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT IS SHOWING RECENT SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPS AT 02Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
40S.
NOT MUCH NEEDED TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD DECK DEPARTS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. RUC RH PROGS HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CLOUD DECK AND WERE PRIMARILY
UTILIZED. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...EXPECT THE DECK TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA BEING THE LAST SECTION TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW TEMPS AS RELAXING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
AND 3-6 HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF
FROST ACCRUAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE. DO EXPECT
SHELTERED...LOW LYING AND OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SEE FROST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.
ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
STRATOCU WILL LINGER OVER A FEW TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD REGARLESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES
TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 3
TO 6 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHIFT SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 09Z (FIRST AT KMCK...THEN AT KGLD) WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
PREVAIL THE CONDITIONS AND IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO ADD TEMPO
GROUP.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY EXITING DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE
TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN MAINE.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...
&&
.CLIMATE...
CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.
FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.
SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.
SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.
MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.
EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY OFF
THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT VSBYS
TO DROP TO IFR. THE LOWEST VSBY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AT SAW. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT LEAST AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ243>248-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.
Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.
Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.
Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Next shortwave and low pressure appears on track, although models,
specifically HRRR, is a bit more robust and faster with possible
precipitaton. Have moved up clouds and VCSH about an hour, and
introduced to COU as HRRR has precipitaton futher west. Guidance
holds in clouds until about 12z Friday, so will keep VFR clouds in
for now, althought the NAM guidance tries to bring in MVFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Generally increasing VFR clouds with a VCSH as
the clipper type system moves through Thursday. Nam guidance
brings in MRF clouds late in the period. MVFR to IFR clouds in
Canada, but will hold off for now and stick with the GFD VFR
forecast.
JPK
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy. (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
MOUNTAIN-WAVE-INDUCED CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS MAY STAY
MORE OR LESS ANCHORED IN PLACE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW A SIMILAR
IDEA...SO WE INCREASED FORECAST CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE ALSO INCREASED LOWS JUST
A BIT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS OUT OF RESPECT TO THAT
CLOUD COVER...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE 18 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BUT HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
THIS IS ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WINDS
IN MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BUT STILL RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WILL
PROVIDE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A
FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BUT OVERALL A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP.
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA PULLING IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS STILL PROG THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINING TO OUR WEST. IN FACT...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THEY
WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS. SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FOOTHILLS BUT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LOOKS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MODELS REMAIN STEADY TODAY SHOWING A ZONAL FLOW TO RIDGE DOMINANT
PATTERN WITH A DISTURBANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING THE ONLY REAL SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. FAST WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAST MOVING
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT DOWNSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR ALL BUT WEST FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY FOR A
DRY DAY. ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
ECMWF BRINGS THIS FEATURE ACROSS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND
THUS PROVIDES A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOW/CLIMO TYPE POPS IN ALREADY AND THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WEST
TO 40S EAST. DOWNSLOPE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GAP
FLOW WINDS OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT MODELS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND NOT SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT OR ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INTO SATURDAY. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/067 041/049 032/051 032/059 039/061 039/063 044/060
00/B 36/W 41/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 043/066 038/044 028/046 028/051 037/058 037/060 040/058
02/W 88/W 42/W 02/W 22/W 11/B 12/W
HDN 035/070 034/051 028/053 026/062 032/062 033/065 038/061
00/B 24/W 41/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 032/067 038/050 029/048 026/059 034/059 033/061 040/059
00/B 22/W 32/W 01/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 035/070 039/053 031/048 027/059 036/060 035/062 039/061
00/B 11/B 21/B 01/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 028/064 039/051 028/042 025/054 032/056 032/057 037/055
00/B 01/N 12/W 01/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 034/073 040/059 030/050 021/062 029/063 031/064 036/062
00/B 24/W 42/W 01/U 11/B 11/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
226 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAVING MOVED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN... WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT (INDICATED BY A FALL-
OFF IN DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E IN ITS WAKE) IS A BIT FURTHER
NW... STRETCHING ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH... AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90+ KT JET TO OUR
NNE... APPEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REBIRTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT... WELL MODELED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THE RAP
ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF ARW/NMM MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING RAIN JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES WITH TIMING
AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATH OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXTRAPOLATION OF OBSERVED AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
ALONG WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE GLAMP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOWS FROM 44 NW TO 56 SE... WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.
DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...
A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.
FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDES KDIK AND POSSIBLY
KISN...WHERE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS BUILD DOWN. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE
FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO ERODE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. MAY GET A BIT OF A
BREAK IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT BUT SAT SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. WILL KEEP TEMP TREND IN PLACE
FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.
TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CIG/VIS VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO WORK IN AFT 09Z AS BAND OF LOWERED
CIGS MOVE SE OUT OF CANADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY SE 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN ND. BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AROUND THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ON STRONG NORTH WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ALL WEEKEND...WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE DIGGING H5 LOW TONIGHT...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE SMALLER FEATURES. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN TONIGHT
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW
MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE CRITICAL THICKNESSES DROP. LEANED
TOWARDS THE RAP/HRRR WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. THE RAP DROPS 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESSES ENUF FOR SNOW
TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEGINNING AROUND 03-04Z IN THE NW. THE
THICKNESSES SLOWLY DROP S THEN E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THE SCIOTO VALLEY WILL MANAGE TO STAY RAIN THRU THE
EVENT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WANT TO LINGER THE PCPN IN THE COLD AIR
LONGER THAN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONTINUED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KY.
ALSO CONTINUED WITH THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE
FA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OF BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE H5 LOW SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO EAST COAST SATURDAY
MORNING...SOME PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COLD NLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT A VERY COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
BUILDING SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THE CLOUDS FROM W TO E. WITH THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SE INDIANA WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 20S. IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE AROUND 30. CONTINUED FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. DESPITE
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL START OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERMITTING THE
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
REINFORCE THIS FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ELONGATED AXIS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SPAWNING IT STRENGTHENS AND OCCLUDES OVER HUDSON
BAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS
BACK...STRONG ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A 5 DEG
JUMP IN HIGHS ON THIS DAY. WED AND THURS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS AND THEN SEE A DROP AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
USHERS IN COOLER AIR. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
HIGH WITH THE GFS FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER PUSHING IN COOLER
AIR...AND THE EURO ACTUALLY OVER THE REGION PERMITTING A WARMUP WITH
MORE WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THOSE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS TRANSITION WILL TAKE LONGER AT KCMH AND KLCK AND THEREFORE
KEPT THEM AS RAIN LONGER. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR REACHES THOSE
LOCATIONS ONLY HAVE A VCSH IN THE TAFS. LINGERED THE VCSH LONGER
AT KCMH AND KLCK WITH FAVORABLE WINDS OFF THE LAKE. BROUGHT DOWN
VSBYS SLIGHTLY WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
CIGS WILL START OUT VFR OR MVFR ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND THEN EXPECT WIND GUSTS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ089>100.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
INLAND NORTH BREEZE DYING DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ALL
HALLOW`S EVE...MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 20...GUST TO 25...KTS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK WIND FIELD
WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE THE DROP OF TEMPERATURE WITHIN THIS DRY AIR
MASS. AVERAGE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40 DEW POINTS...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...
EQUATES TO MANY INLAND SATURDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 45F (MID 50S AT COAST). NOVEMBER BEGINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT EASTERLIES...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WARMING UP INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. AFTER A VERY CHILLED SUNDAY MORNING...THE WEEKEND WILL
END WITH MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS BREEZES
VEER ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGHING
WITH SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY. HEIGHTENED MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PHASE WITH THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF A MID
WEEK WESTERN UPPER LOW (ECMWF) OR SOUTHERN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH
(GFS) SCENARIO...BUT BOTH DO AGREE THAT A TROUGH AXIS WILL HANG BACK
TO THE WEST LONG ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM SECTOR/25H RR QUAD
OVER SE TX THAT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD END WITH SUNDOWN AND WIND
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 65 40 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 45 67 41 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 54 65 54 70 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FROM
PRECIPITATION AT BOTH METROPLEX AND WACO TERMINALS.
CONCERNING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIXING AND THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE WSW. HAVE RETAINED
VCSH BASED ON SLIGHTLY AGITATED CU FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
TRENDS IN HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT. DATA FROM THE MORNING WEATHER
BALLOON...RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...AND IN-HOUSE THUNDERSTORM
PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY. MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS...COMPLEMENTS OF THE TRUE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SHOULD ARRIVE
ACROSS THE MEXTROPLEX AROUND THE 23-00 UTC TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...THINK THAT WE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO MIX
OVERNIGHT....BUT THE STIFF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS. STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTER
SUNRISE AND MIXING COMMENCES. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDOWN FRIDAY.
CONCERNING THE WACO TAF SITE...SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND A SUBTLE HIGH OVER THE PINEY WOODS SHOULD HELP TO BACK
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH. A LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS TRIES
TO BUILD...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDER WILL BE WEST OF THE WACO TAF SITE. 5-10 KNOT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AROUND 02-03 UTC. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY WHEN DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR.
15-BAIN/30
&&
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FROM MCKINNEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO MINERAL WELLS AND INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. LEFT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND THE MOST
FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER THE WACO AND KILLEEN AREAS AND AREAS
WEST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS COMANCHE. HAVE LEFT POPS OVER
THESE AREAS AT 40 PERCENT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS HAVING A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
THINKING THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOETH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1257 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY N-NE WINDS WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG MENTION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIVER ACROSS SRN STONEWALL COUNTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 34 61 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 60 33 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 60 34 63 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 37 62 36 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 40 63 36 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 40 63 38 66 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 41 63 38 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 43 63 34 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 42 63 37 64 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 44 65 37 65 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG MENTION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIVER ACROSS SRN STONEWALL COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 70 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 72 38 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 72 39 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 73 37 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 74 40 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 74 40 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 74 41 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 76 43 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 77 42 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 80 44 65 37 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
946 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FROM MCKINNEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO MINERAL WELLS AND INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. LEFT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND THE MOST
FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER THE WACO AND KILLEEN AREAS AND AREAS
WEST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS COMANCHE. HAVE LEFT POPS OVER
THESE AREAS AT 40 PERCENT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS HAVING A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
THINKING THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOETH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STORM POTENTIAL...WIND SHIFT.
CLOUD COVER...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISCERNIBLE BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. FLOW WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE IS
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FROM REACHING WACO. HOWEVER...
VEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MEAN SOME VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...DURING THE HANDFUL OF HOURS PRECEDING FROPA. SKIES
SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STORM POTENTIAL...
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY AMONG SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...EVEN IF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
WIND SHIFT...
SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER 10KTS. UNLESS CONVECTION
IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE EVENTUAL
VEERING TO THE NORTH WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STORM POTENTIAL...WIND SHIFT.
CLOUD COVER...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISCERNIBLE BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. FLOW WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE IS
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FROM REACHING WACO. HOWEVER...
VEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MEAN SOME VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...DURING THE HANDFUL OF HOURS PRECEDING FROPA. SKIES
SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STORM POTENTIAL...
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY AMONG SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...EVEN IF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
WIND SHIFT...
SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER 10KTS. UNLESS CONVECTION
IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE EVENTUAL
VEERING TO THE NORTH WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 70 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 72 38 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 72 39 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 73 37 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 74 40 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 74 40 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 74 41 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 76 43 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 77 42 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 80 44 65 37 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Despite clear skies and light winds, fog/stratus has yet to
develop at 10Z. This puts the HRRR out to lunch. However, latest
NAM buffer soundings still hint at a couple of hours of LIFR
conditions at KMAF, and MVFR at KCNM and KINK. All other terminals
should stay VFR this morning. MVFR cigs will be possible at KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ tonight as the front moves through. Otherwise, sfc
flow will veer to the north during the next 24 hrs the front settles
into the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures today will transition to much cooler as a cold
front arrives just in time for Halloween. Rain chances also return
early next week.
Modest southerly flow has helped to increase low level moisture
across the area this morning which is leading to some low cloud
and fog development. Meanwhile, a cold front has entered the TX
Panhandle and will continue south throughout the day. Drier air
behind the front will help to erode the low clouds as the boundary
makes its way to the I-20 corridor around lunch time. Temperatures
will not warm too much across the northern Permian Basin today
with the earlier frontal passage, but the rest of the region
should see temps well into the 70s and 80s. The front could spark
an isolated shower across the lower Trans Pecos west to the Davis
Mnts tonight into Friday morning as the boundary begins to slow
down.
Temperatures behind the front will cool below normal for Halloween
with highs only making it into the 60s and low 70s. Sfc ridging will
quickly move east Friday night, thus protecting most of the region
from seeing their first freeze.
Upper flow begins to amplify over the weekend as a deep trough moves
onto the West Coast. The initial wave that rounds the base of the
trough on Saturday quickly moves into the northern Rockies. Model
solutions then begin to diverge on the evolution of the trough
thereafter. The GFS continues to be more progressive/drier while the
ECMWF is slower/wetter as it develops a cut-off low to our west. The
ECMWF has had run to run consistency as of late, but the GFS
agrees more with the Canadian and other ensembles so will trend
more toward the GFS for now. Height falls begin to affect the
region Sunday and Monday so we could see areas of light showers
develop almost anywhere. A cold front will move south and begin to
focus showers and thunderstorms along it Monday night into
Tuesday. There exists a potential for heavy rain given abnormally
high PWATS and ample lift from the upper trough and cold front. At
this time it appears the best chance for rain is Monday night and
Tuesday. Depending on what happens with the upper trough, PoPs may
need to be upped later next week.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIRMASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 70 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 72 38 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 72 39 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 73 37 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 74 40 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 74 40 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 74 41 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 76 43 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 77 42 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 80 44 65 37 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS RIGHT AROUND
31/00Z. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. AT THIS TIME WONT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAF BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AT WACO AND POINTS WEST OF THERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Clear skies, light winds, buffer soundings, and the HRRR all
develop LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys at all terminals except KHOB and
KFST for 2-3 hours just after sunrise. Buffer soundings and HRRR
differ slightly on location and timing, so this will have to be
adjusted as needed. Otherwise, sfc flow will veer to the north
during the day as a weak cold front settles into the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Shallow low level mstr will creep back into most of that TAF sites
overnight increasing the chance for MVFR VSBY/CIGS, possibly IFR.
High resolution models forecast the RH to be near 100 PCT by near 12Z
at all but CNM/FST. As such have opted to bring down VSBY to 1SM
or less at MAF/HOB/INK/PEQ. Soundings show CIGS/VSBY lifting around
15Z and this makes sense considering how shallow mstr will be.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are a little warmer today as surface winds are
southeasterly and the surface ridge has moved well to the east of
the region. An upper trough is over the eastern conus with ridging
over the southwest conus. This upper pattern has resulted in the
area being under west to northwest flow aloft with possible
shortwaves moving over the region on the backside of this upper
trough. Due to this upper lift being present, there is a very
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains area today and tomorrow afternoon but do not have
enough confidence add in pops at this time. Patchy fog is possible
tonight and early tomorrow morning across portions of the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and southward to parts of
Brewster County as winds will be light and moisture will remain
across the area.
The upper ridge will become more centered over the region on
Thursday. A secondary cold front associated with the upper trough
centered over the Great Lakes region will push into the area
Thursday evening. Lift and moisture convergence will increase
across the area as a result of this front, so there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the CWA on Friday. Temperatures will
be a cooler behind this front bringing highs into the mid to upper
60s across the Permian Basin on Friday.
Upper ridging will continue across the region on Saturday with the
previously mentioned upper trough over the east coast and another
upper trough over the western conus. Temperatures will warm
slightly on Saturday as surface winds become more southerly. The
upper trough over the western conus moves closer to the CWA on
Sunday allowing for lee surface troughing to develop across West
Texas and southeast New Mexico. This will result in a further warm
up on Sunday.
The upper trough will move closer the region on Monday and upper
lift will increase. The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement on the
position of the upper trough. The GFS is faster with the trough and
therefore pushes the rain and an associated cold front through the
area faster. It appears that the cold front will move through the
area sometime Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps the rain through Wednesday
while the GFS ends it on Tuesday so pops remain very uncertain for
these two days. Expect temperatures to be cooler for Tuesday and
Wednesday due to the cold front and increased cloud cover.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30.21Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20 KT
RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT...BUT EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS AFTER 31.05Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE HAS KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR OVERNIGHT...WHILE CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS HAVE BEEN SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES AND HELP TO LOWER CEILINGS. BOTH LSE
AND RST SHOULD SEE CEILINGS FALL...INTO THE MVFR RANGE...FOR A
TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS DRIER CANADIAN AIR FLOWS IN
AND CLEARS THE CLOUD OUT. IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE GREATLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN PRESSURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY.
GUSTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE IN THE TAFS IF TRENDS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE WINDY SCENARIO.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THE 30.00Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT
3 HOURS FROM THE 29.18Z RUNS. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE 900
TO 800 MB STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND THE STEEPEST 850 TO 950 MB
LAPSE RATES. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST BACK CLOSE
TO 31.00Z INSTEAD OF 30.19Z. WITH THE BEST 950 TO 850 MB MOISTURE
SLIDING SOUTH OF KRST BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED BY 31.05Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
327 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD AND SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS SFC GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN BATTLE BETWEEN
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND COLDER CONDITIONS ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS UTAH. LATEST SHRT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN
ACTIVE MORNING PERIOD AS WEAK WAVE EJECTING OUT AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARRIVES. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO PICK-UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND LATEST HRRR MODEL DRIVES THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. H7
SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 15Z AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS GRADIENTS
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...NOT PLANNING ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
WITH RAIN HITTING THE VALLEY FLOORS...SO MOMENTUM TRANSFER LIKELY
HINDERED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING IN. WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR VALUES EXPERIENCE YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT TODAY.
AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AN INITIAL
WAVE OF ENERGY SPLITS OFF AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE STORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH IN THE EVENING IS PROGGED
TO STALL ROUGHLY ALONG A KDWX TO 20 TO 30 MILES EAST OF KPGA LINE
BY 12Z/SUN. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IN
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS A 100KT JET NOSES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BRING A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. MEANWHILE...7H TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR ZERO ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
ACCUMULATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY BALANCED JET
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HOLDS THE SYSTEM
IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT EASES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF CAA. CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO MARKEDLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW 8000 FEET. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOUNTAIN
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET ALIGNED WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPECIFICALLY...THIS WATCH WILL INCLUDE
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH...THE GRAND MESA...AND THE FLAT
TOPS. ALSO INCLUDED ARE THE WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS FAVORED. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL
COULD POTENTIALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE ON HIGHER SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. UNDERSTANDABLY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
FLAT RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED. WITH THE RIDGE COMES DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AFTER
18Z...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AGAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 9500 FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ009-012-013-018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 9500 FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC/NL
LONG TERM...NL/JDC
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
452 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/CSRA THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK
MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT QUICKLY EASTWARD AND OFF THE SC COAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS AND TRAFFIC
CAMS FROM THE UPSTATE INDICATE SNOW FALLING IN/AROUND THE
GREENVILLE AREA WITH BRIGHT BAND OF PRECIPITATION AT 4 AM THIS
MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FAR WESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA
DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER MOISTURE. MORNING
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS H850 TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW 0
DEGREES C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SC. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -7
DEGREES ACROSS NRN GA/ERN TN AND ACROSS WRN NC. THIS IS ACTUALLY
COLDER THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODELS RUNS. EXPECT THESE
IMPRESSIVE H850 TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AT CAE ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE SOUNDING
BELOW FREEZE FROM AROUND 1K FT UPWARD AT 9 AM. THE SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATES A PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR GRAUPEL
TO THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH TO MENTION OTHERWISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH
RUNS FROM 4 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING
BY KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. A
FEW COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S...BUT MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TREND IN MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO
FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN...BUT FORECAST TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE RECORDS FOR
AGS AND CAE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...BUT A FREEZE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED LATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIX WITH RAIN AT CAE/CUB DURING THE
MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AND SREF INDICATE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
10Z-18Z. VFR AT AGS/DNL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNRISE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF
THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUST A FEW CLIMATE NOTES FOR THE PERIOD...
THE EARLIEST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL...NOT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...AT
COLUMBIA IS NOVEMBER 9TH 1913.
THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT COLUMBIA IS NOVEMBER 19TH
1901 WHEN 3.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.
LOOKING AT THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE NOVEMBER 3RD.
THE RECORD LOW AT COLUMBIA IS 27 DEGREES SET IN 1963 AND 1954.
THE RECORD LOW AT AUGUSTA IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1954.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
332 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Early this morning at 08Z the surface high pressure ridge extended
from northeast Iowa across northeast Kansas into south central
Oklahoma. Light southeast winds have developed across north central
Kansas on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures were in
the 20s and dewpoint temps were in the teens to lower 20s.
An upper level trough was moving into the the west coast while a
ridge was building over the High Plains. As the upper trough
continues to move eastward the upper ridge will build into the
Plains Today then move eastward tonight with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Kansas early Sunday morning. Pressure gradient
increases today across western and central Kansas east of a trough
of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and on the back side of
the surface high. Models vary how deep mixing will be today across
north central Kansas. RUC mixes deeper than the NAM and have going
with a blend of the two and have bumped up temperatures and
increased winds. Winds could gust to around 30 mph in north central
Kansas this afternoon.
Pressure gradient will gradually increase tonight as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. This will keep the lower boundary
layer mixed and overnight lows warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Skies will be partly cloudy tonight with clouds developing in warm
advection regime.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Low level inversion remains strong through Sunday afternoon, with
mixing depths limited to a few thousand feet on even the most
aggressive NAM, so despite a rather strong pressure gradient and
850mb winds near 50kt, expect surface winds to remain below Advisory
speeds. Warm air advection will still lead to temps 10-15F above
today`s levels however.
Moisture slowly increases in the middle to lower layers Sunday night
into Monday evening as large-scale upper trough works it way east
into the Plains. There is some decent agreement with a weak wave
entering northern Kansas Sunday night so will maintain small chances
for mainly northern and western areas then, with still the greater
coverage anticipated in the late day and evening hours Monday.
Instability remains meager but enough for a thunder mention.
After perhaps some lingering showers early Tuesday as the trough
exits, remainder of the week is looking dry. Models are similar with
southern end of trough cutting off from the flow in the New
Mexico/West Texas area, but differ with what to do with it from
there. ECMWF seems to be backing off the idea of bringing it
northeast into the area with none of the GFS ensemble members doing
so, so no precip chance will be included in the latter periods.
Temps look to bounce around a bit in fairly quick zonal flow over
the northern states, with slightly warmer temps for Wednesday but
cooler again Thursday behind a Pacific cold front, and southerly
winds returning Friday for modification to occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the forecast.
Scattered cirrus before 14z will give way to scattered AC around
10 kft thru the remainder of the forecast. VRB/east winds under 5
kts until 14z will veer to the south and southeast and increase
through 17z with gusts 18-24kts remainder of the TAF
fcst...although gusts may decrease some aft 00z/02.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ011-012-
021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
330 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 100 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
As the core of a stout upper low dives south into Tennessee,
wrap-around precipitation in the form of light rain and snow will
diminish readily by 3am EDT. Prevailing visibilities will stay at or
above 6km in light snow or drizzle at SDF and LEX, with only a very
temporary dip to 4sm if a heavier band of snow moves over the
airport. Ceilings at LEX will stay IFR through 12z before slowly
lifting to MVFR through the early afternoon hours. Current low end
MVFR ceilings at SDF will also continue through 12z.
At BWG, ceilings will fall to MVFR and continue that way through
12z.
Winds will continue from the NNW tonight around 15kt with some gusts
above 25kt before slightly diminishing Saturday to 10 to 15kt.
Skies will slowly clear from west to east after 18z Saturday
afternoon. VFR conditions will develop after 17z at SDF and BWG, but
not until several hours later at LEX.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
336 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW DEEP WE MIX DURING
THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA...AND A TROUGH THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN TENNESSEE. IN BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE MS AND MO RIVERS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAD SET UP EARLY TONIGHT.
IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE MIXING AROUND
H9 OR H875 WHEREAS THE RAP MIXES HIGHER...AROUND H85. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER RANGE FROM 30KTS AROUND H9 TO 38KTS OR SO AT
H875. HARD TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BUT DID TREND WINDS UP
BASED ON THE RAP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON MIXING AND DID TREND READINGS
UP A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL LOOKING MARGINAL AS LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AOA 25 PERCENT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT FIRE CRITERIA AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
JUST DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH ATTM AND CONDITIONS...ARE
STILL BORDERLINE FOR MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE DPS WILL BE LOWER AND THIS
IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT QUITE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STEADY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS AND A MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MIGRATING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIGHTER SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG. WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND EVEN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT. THE MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SATURDAY IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN BETWEEN A
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 20KTS AND GUST OVER 30KTS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SET UP A COOL
AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN
SPOTS. COLDER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD
TAPER OFF. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 400 AM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROF SAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS HAS SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MOST LIKELY A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND EXTENDING TO ROCHESTER AND ERIE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH THE HRRR VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND A BLEND OF MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST...DRIER (BUT COLDER) AIR WILL BUILD IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION LEAVING
IT MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE REGIONS.
MEANWHILE...SNOW IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...WITH COOLER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BOTH HAMILTON AND TORONTO REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP...EXPECT RAIN TO START MIXING WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT EVEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ARE LIKELY TO
SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO RAIN TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION TODAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800FT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING...WITH RELATIVELY STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CAUSE SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO
AROUND -6C BY 00Z SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE JUST MOIST ENOUGH TO FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL DRY OUT AND LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS REGARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL END
PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN JUST LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA PATTERN WILL START THIS PERIOD...WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH...PLAINS RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH.
SUNDAY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY REGION...WITH THE LAST OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FOUND WITHIN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. SUFFICIENT DRYING IN THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD START AREAS NEAR THE LAKES MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY...WHILE INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY START RATHER CLOUDY BEFORE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND ALSO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE...A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SIMILAR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WHICH WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE PLAINS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD AND
CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT MAY BE NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH LAKE
PARAMETERS POOR FOR LAKE EFFECT...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OF 4 TO 5C AT 850 HPA WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING MID WEST STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY BRING
A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH A 30 KT
NORTHERLY FLOW AT 925 AND LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TODAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. MEANWHILE CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 1K FT LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS
EVENING.
JHW...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN ONLY
A MODEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT.
ART...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AVERAGING AROUND 3K FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
202 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LOW BRIEFLY PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH A
WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN NORTH OF I-90 AND JUST VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD. CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE...THE HRRR SHIFTS WINDS FROM THE NE TO N WHICH WILL PUSH
STEADIER SHOWERS SOUTHWARD ACROSS JHW-BUF-IAG...AND EVENTUALLY ROC
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT THE REMAINS OF THE ORIGINAL PRIMARY LOW TO
CONTINUE TO DECAY AS ITS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE SECONDARY COASTAL
SYSTEM. THIS STATED...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND A LINGERING CYCLONIC/INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. FURTHER TO THE EAST...
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN READINGS FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY VERY LIMITED RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WHEN ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF -7C TO -8C WILL BE
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN AND NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED. A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING...DWINDLING TO CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT LOWER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ON THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WARMING TO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY...AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 06Z...THERE WAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WESTERN NY...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
BUF/IAG. LOOKING JUST TO WEST IN HAMILTON ONTARIO...THERE WAS IFR
CIGS WITH A 30KT 925MB FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AS 925MB WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER WEST OF ROC. HAVE RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT JHW WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THIS WIND SHIFT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BUF/IAG/ROC SHOULD
LOWER...BUT ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL IF THEY LOWER TO IFR.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING. ART
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR MVFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE PATCHY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW LATE SATURDAY AT JHW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. ON LAKE ONTARIO...THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE DEVELOPING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE ON LAKE ERIE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ALL THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...AREAS OF RAIN AND WITH THEM
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOWER CEILINGS OR BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF RAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TAFS
WILL REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART OR CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...WITH THE LATER AVIATION HAZARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEING THE WIND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND BY LATE TODAY EXPECT A FEW GUSTS IN VICINITY OF 30KT. NOT FAR
OFF OF THE SURFACE...THE GFS MODEL MORE SO THAN THE NAM FORECASTS
WINDS BY 2000FT CLOSING IN ON 50KT. REGARDLESS...AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT AND OFF OF THE SURFACE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND GUSTINESS IN THE WIND SHOULD
GRADUALLY RELAX AS WELL ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...AND
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF ANY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS INLAND HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT GLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
UPDATE...
INLAND NORTH BREEZE DYING DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ALL
HALLOW`S EVE...MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 20...GUST TO 25...KTS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK WIND FIELD
WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE THE DROP OF TEMPERATURE WITHIN THIS DRY AIR
MASS. AVERAGE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40 DEW POINTS...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...
EQUATES TO MANY INLAND SATURDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 45F (MID 50S AT COAST). NOVEMBER BEGINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT EASTERLIES...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WARMING UP INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. AFTER A VERY CHILLED SUNDAY MORNING...THE WEEKEND WILL
END WITH MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS BREEZES
VEER ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGHING
WITH SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY. HEIGHTENED MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PHASE WITH THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF A MID
WEEK WESTERN UPPER LOW (ECMWF) OR SOUTHERN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH
(GFS) SCENARIO...BUT BOTH DO AGREE THAT A TROUGH AXIS WILL HANG BACK
TO THE WEST LONG ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM SECTOR/25H RR QUAD
OVER SE TX THAT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD END WITH SUNDOWN AND WIND
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 65 40 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 45 67 41 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 54 65 54 70 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW WITH PLENTY STILL OUT OVER
THE WATERS HEADING TOWARD OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT HAS NOT PICKED UP ANY STRIKES, THE PATTERN IS
DEFINITELY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP TODAY.
ECHOS HAVE GENERALLY BENN UNDER 50 DBZ, ALTHOUGH SEEING A FEW
RETURNS OVER 55. PROBABLY GETTING SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THEM.
KOAK SOUNDING AND PROFILERS ALSO PEG THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
5,700 FEET SUGGESTING THAT LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 5,000 FEET ARE
PROBABLY GETTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ANYWAY, CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROF AND LATEST HRRR INFORMATION, WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE
POPS A BIT FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE REGION.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FORECAST MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 200-600 J/KG. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BAY...THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION STAYING DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT SATURDAY... RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OFFSHORE OF COAST
THIS MORNING. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY AREA
TAF SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE AT KMRY AND
KSNS AIRPORTS UNDER HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING FOG
SATURDAY MORNING... HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS A LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH CIGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.
HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE VICINITY NO LATER THAN
16Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STILL EVIDENT IN THE SOUTH
BAY AT 12Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 16KT AROUND 00Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING NEAR MONTEREY
BAY WILL IMPACT KMRY AND KSNS THROUGH 20Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
STRONGER RAIN CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS. NW WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. SEAS OF UP 10 TO 12 FEET WILL DEVELOP
CREATING SOME HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE START OF CRAB SEASON. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL ENTERING MONTEREY BAY WILL CREATE STRONG RIP
CURRENTS FROM ASILOMAR TO MONTEREY STATE BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
...VERY WINDY TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...
.UPDATE...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN GA AND SC WILL
PIVOT ESE TODAY AND HELP FUNNEL IN COLD AND DRY AIR. LATEST CHECK OF
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE GFS HAD A BETTER HANDLE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WINDS IN THE WIND ADVY CRITERIA
RANGE AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WITH INITIAL
SURGE OF COLD AIR. UNSEASONABLE COLD HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
AS TEMPS SLOWLY CRAWL UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUN.
RECORD LOW MAX FOR TODAYS DATE IS 56 AT ALL 4 OF OUR MAJOR CLIMATE
STATIONS (AMG/SSI/JAX/GNV) AND LOOKING AT THE SFC DATA WILL COULD
MAKE NEW RECORDS AT JAX...SSI AND AMG.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS. WSW WIND OF 15-25KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED. SOME STRATO CU WILL MOVE INTO THE
SSI AREA BUT VFR STILL EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AIR AND PRES GRADIENT WILL CONT TO SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS OF 25-35 KT. RECENT REPORT FROM 41008 JUST N OF THE
WATERS WAS 29G39KT RECENTLY. ONLY CHANGE WAS EXPAND GALE WARNING
INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS RAP MODEL AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOWED DECENT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS. IT WAS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO SEE 6 FT SEAS ONLY 7 MILES OUT AT 41112 BUOY SO MADE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEAS. IN ANY CASE...CERTAINLY A
DANGEROUS CONDITION RIGHT NOW FOR EVEN MODERATE SIZE BOATERS WITH
STEEP/BREAKING WAVES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.FIRE WX...CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET FOR RED FLAG WARNING IN MARION
COUNTY WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 25 TO 29 PERCENT...JUST BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA. DISPERSION VALUES ALSO QUITE EXCESSIVE DUE TO
STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS A LITTLE ABOVE 4000 FT.
REST OF THE AREA FALLS SHORT OF RED FLAG CONDS TODAY BUT A FIRE
SENSITIVE DAY WITH DRIER AIR AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 57 43 62 44 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 57 39 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 44 63 49 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 58 37 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 60 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARION.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
WARE-WAYNE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHASHY/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
851 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN STATES WITH CENTER OF
MAIN FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF RENO THIS MORNING. STRONG DRYING SLOT
BEHIND LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO THIS MORNING
PER WV SAT IMAGERY. SECOND SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
NEVADA AHEAD OF MAIN FEATURE. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEVADA. MODELS STILL STRONGLY HINTING AT CENTER OF UPPER
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA EJECTS NORTHEAST WITH NEGATIVE
TILT TO TROUGH. LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION PROGGED TO ARRIVE
APPROX NOON PER HRRR WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF LINE OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THEN CONTINUING BEHIND THE LINE.
SFC WINDS FROM HRRR SUGGEST STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED SVR GUSTS WITH MODEL INSTABILITY PAINTED ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG WITH 50KT 700MB SUPPORT. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTN...ROUGHLY 00Z. TIMING ON GRIDS LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PATTERN. WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES IN
PLACE AT THIS TIME. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER WILL BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE IN
SOUTHEAST IDAHO. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING DOWN TO
SURFACE AS LARGE UPPER TROF MOVES ONTO PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AFTER 10 AM THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION TODAY WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS STILL IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DROP
FROM OVER 9 THOUSAND FEET THIS MORNING TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON ON SUNDAY WITH UP TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND ISSUED ONE FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
HIGHLANDS AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 4
TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS MAY REACH VALLEY
FLOORS BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY END SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BUT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GK
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET. MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE RIDGE WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD AND MAY BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S. GFS ENSEMBLES THOUGH PAINT A FLATTER
RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC
NW. ECMWF CURRENTLY IS THE OUTLIER FOR FRIDAY AS IT BRINGS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE
DRY ZONAL FLOW. GEM MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF FOR FRIDAY...BUT A
BIT SLOWER. NO CLEAR SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO EXTENDED PERIODS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
AVIATION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NV. THIS WILL MEAN AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO NEAR THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT SPEEDS NOT THAT STRONG JUST YET. MODELS BRING
PRECIP TO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. KPIH AND KIDA MAY STAY DRY
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
IN THE LATE EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOWERING CEILINGS AROUND 06Z. TIMING FOR BELOW VFR CONDITIONS AT
KSUN COMES AROUND 00Z. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-021>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR THE IDZ032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY IDZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
628 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Early this morning at 08Z the surface high pressure ridge extended
from northeast Iowa across northeast Kansas into south central
Oklahoma. Light southeast winds have developed across north central
Kansas on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures were in
the 20s and dewpoint temps were in the teens to lower 20s.
An upper level trough was moving into the the west coast while a
ridge was building over the High Plains. As the upper trough
continues to move eastward the upper ridge will build into the
Plains Today then move eastward tonight with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Kansas early Sunday morning. Pressure gradient
increases today across western and central Kansas east of a trough
of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and on the back side of
the surface high. Models vary how deep mixing will be today across
north central Kansas. RUC mixes deeper than the NAM and have going
with a blend of the two and have bumped up temperatures and
increased winds. Winds could gust to around 30 mph in north central
Kansas this afternoon.
Pressure gradient will gradually increase tonight as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. This will keep the lower boundary
layer mixed and overnight lows warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Skies will be partly cloudy tonight with clouds developing in warm
advection regime.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Low level inversion remains strong through Sunday afternoon, with
mixing depths limited to a few thousand feet on even the most
aggressive NAM, so despite a rather strong pressure gradient and
850mb winds near 50kt, expect surface winds to remain below Advisory
speeds. Warm air advection will still lead to temps 10-15F above
today`s levels however.
Moisture slowly increases in the middle to lower layers Sunday night
into Monday evening as large-scale upper trough works it way east
into the Plains. There is some decent agreement with a weak wave
entering northern Kansas Sunday night so will maintain small chances
for mainly northern and western areas then, with still the greater
coverage anticipated in the late day and evening hours Monday.
Instability remains meager but enough for a thunder mention.
After perhaps some lingering showers early Tuesday as the trough
exits, remainder of the week is looking dry. Models are similar with
southern end of trough cutting off from the flow in the New
Mexico/West Texas area, but differ with what to do with it from
there. ECMWF seems to be backing off the idea of bringing it
northeast into the area with none of the GFS ensemble members doing
so, so no precip chance will be included in the latter periods.
Temps look to bounce around a bit in fairly quick zonal flow over
the northern states, with slightly warmer temps for Wednesday but
cooler again Thursday behind a Pacific cold front, and southerly
winds returning Friday for modification to occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Winds will increase from the southeast and south to around 13 kts
with gusts up to 24 kts after 17Z. Winds will continue in the 10
to 15 kt range after 00Z. VFR conditions are expected with a deck
around 9 kft developing after 01Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
914 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 912 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Minor adjustments made to the forecast for the remainder of the
morning hours and into the early afternoon. Still deep in the
cyclonic flow as another lobe of vorticity rotates through the
eastern forecast area. Upstream radar and observations show
scattered snow showers that will pivot south over the next several
hours. Increased POPs to the 30-50 percent range. Snow showers
will remain light and not expecting any accumulations as snow
rates will be very light as well. Snow showers will transition to
rain/snow mix by early afternoon.
Temperatures were adjusted downward, especially in the east, as
clouds, precipitation, and cold advection will really dampen any
diurnal rise. Plan on overcast skies for much of the day as model RH
fields suggest clouds and low level moisture hanging around through
at least 21z or 00z. This will keep temperatures from rising much,
and some locations around LEX and points east likely to struggle to
break 40. Overall, an unseasonably cold and raw day on tap.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Some very light rain and snow wrapping around low pressure to our
southeast will continue at LEX through 13z before ending.
Visibilities at LEX will fall to high end MVFR at the lowest in any
light snow or rain.
MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF through around 14 to 15z before
lifting to low end VFR prior to clearing later this afternoon.
Ceilings at BWG will remain right above the MVFR threshold before
scattering out by early afternoon.
Winds this morning will continue brisk from the north northwest
before diminishing to north around 10 mph later this evening. Winds
will become nearly calm after midnight.
Skies will clear by 19z at SDF and BWG, while waiting past 21z to
clear at LEX. Clear skies are expected tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Some very light rain and snow wrapping around low pressure to our
southeast will continue at LEX through 13z before ending.
Visibilities at LEX will fall to high end MVFR at the lowest in
any light snow or rain.
MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF through around 14 to 15z before
lifting to low end VFR prior to clearing later this afternoon.
Ceilings at BWG will remain right above the MVFR threshold before
scattering out by early afternoon.
Winds this morning will continue brisk from the north northwest
before diminishing to north around 10 mph later this evening. Winds
will become nearly calm after midnight.
Skies will clear by 19z at SDF and BWG, while waiting past 21z to
clear at LEX. Clear skies are expected tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
OFFSHORE WHILE HEADING TOWARDS CAPE COD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE OF FORECAST TO REFINE POPS TODAY AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN BASED ON RADAR OVER PAST 3 HOURS AND HRRR FORECAST TRENDS THE
PAST FEW HOURS. CUTS BACK CHANCES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THIS
MORNING SCT SHRWS ARE MOVING SW DOWN THE SHEN VALLEY AND
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARE OVER THE BAYSHORE AND
LOWER S MD. THAT SAID HI RES MODELS DONT EXPAND THAT MUCH BEFORE
PRECIP STARTS SHUTTING DOWN EAST OF THE MTNS AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONSOLIDATES. WILL CONT TO MONITOR RADAR IN CASE TREND STARTS TO
REVERSE AND POP CHANCES INCREASE...BUT FOR NOW...CHANCES OUTSIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS NOT HIGH.
S/WV HAS PLUNGED SEWD TO ERN SC AS OF 9AM PER WATER VAPOR LOOP.
TWITTER REPORTS HAVE COME IN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW NEAR COLUMBIA
SC WITH THE CORE OF THIS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR DIVING INTO THE
SE.
MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRNTL BNDRY CN BE FOUND OFF THE ATLC CST.
CWFA MAINLY IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. SOME LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
FOUND OVER THE BAY...EAST BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS AND DOWN INTO S
MD. OTRW...CLDY BUT DRY CONDS PREVAIL. CONCURRENTLY...A 2ND
LOPRES CENTER WL MEANDER NEWD OFF THE DELMARVA TWD LONG
ISLAND/CAPE COD.
ATTM...THERES NOT A LOT OF SUBFREEZING AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. OUR
MORNING WEATHER BALLOON AT DULLES HAD ABOVE FREEZING FROM 5000FT
TO THE SURFACE. THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW WL BE KEEPING THE CORE OF
THE POLAR PLUNGE W OF THE CWFA TDA. THAT WL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY WAA COMING IN FM THE NE DUE TO THE INITIAL CSTL LOW.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT ALMOST ANY PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA
DURING THE DAY TODAY TIL THE UPR LOW/VORT HITS THE COAST. SOLE
EXCEPTION IS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
ABOVE 3000FT WHICH COULD HAVE SOME NON ACCUMULATING WET SNOW
DURING THE DAY. 9AM FREEZING LEVEL THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ABOVE
NATHANIEL MOUNTAINS 3000FT...WHICH REPORTED 33F AT 9AM.
UVV WL BE IMPRVG THRU THE DAY...AGN COURTESY OF THE INIT LOW AND
THE WAA/DEFORMATION IT PROVIDES. PCPN SHUD BE ADVCG FM NE TO SW.
ONCE CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS...WNDS WL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SUGGESTING AT 15-20 KT SUSTAINED FLOW BLURDG EWD
DVLPG DURING THE AFTN...AND MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS G25KT.
HV INFUSED THAT DATA INTO GRIDS.
NO BIG CHG TO MAXT FCST. DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE STRUGGLING TO REACH
50F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR THIS PD WL BE FOR A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE
PASSING NE OFF HATTERAS. DRY AIR WL WRAP ARND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STORM...MAKING THE WINDS THE BIG STORY TNGT-TMRW. LLJ 40-50 KT BHD
DEPARTING LOW. PROJECTED HGT FALLS SUGGEST THAT WE/LL HV MIXING IN
SPITE OF POOR DIURNAL THERMAL PROFILE. SNDGS WL PROVIDE DEEPER
MIXING AS THE JET DEPARTS. THUS...THE DAYTIME HRS SUNDAY WL BE THE
WINDIER TIMEFRAME. GDNC SUPPORTS NNW 20G30-35KT. IF TOP OF THE MIXED
LYR ACHIEVED...THEN CUD HV SOME G40KT MIDDAY SUNDAY. WL ADD TO HWO.
FLOW DIRECTION NOT TOO FVRBL FOR SGNFT UPSLP PCPN. IT CERTAINLY WL
BE COLD ENUF THO FOR ANY PCPN IN THE MTNS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNW.
CITING STRONG CAA AND CHANNELED PVA...BELIEVE THAT WE/LL HV A PD OF
LGT PCPN TNGT...LINGERING INTO SUN MRNG. AM KEEPING CAT/LKLY POPS
TNGT...FAVORING WRN PENDLETON/HIGHLAND CNTYS. CHC POPS LINGER TO
MIDDAY SUN. ACCUMS WL BE ON THE LWR SIDE...UNDER ADVY CRIT. DAYSHIFT
WL HV THE OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS SITUATION.
SHUD HV AMPLE CLDCVR TIL THE TROF AXIS CROSSES. THAT MEANS MOCLDY
SKIES TNGT. ANY TEMP DROP WL BE PURELY ADVECTIVE. FOR THAT REASON AM
NOT GOING SUPER COLD...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. MIN-T FCST IN THE 30S WL
BE CHILLY...ENHANCED BY WIND CHILLS. THE ONLY PLACES WHERE SUBFRZG
TEMPS FCSTD ARE SAME LOCATIONS WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
CLDS WL HANG TOUGH IN THE MTNS SUN. HWVR...DUE TO THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE FLOW...THE RDG BLDS IN QUITE QUICKLY...THE SUBSIDENCE OF
WHICH SHUD ERODE CLDS DURING THE AFTN. WE/RE UNDER THE COLD POOL
THO...SO CLDS WONT COMPLETELY DSPT. DUE TO THAT THERMAL STRUCTURE...
AM ON COLD SIDE OF MAXT GDNC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FORECAST PROBLEM IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS
WHETHER THE HIGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECOUPLING TO OCCUR
AND THUS TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND LESS LIKELY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE
FORECAST GRID REFLECTS THIS ACCORDINGLY...AND IN MANY AREAS IS AN
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THIS
TREND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH JUST YET.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PROGRADES OVER
THE AREA AND THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT HIGHS
TO REBOUND TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS
QUIET. SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY DROP TO THE MID 30S...BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS STAY 40 OR HIGHER.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. THE RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO GET CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE FRONT ITSELF
DOES NOT HAVE PARTICULARLY STRONG UPPER SUPPORT...SO POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WERE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPS
LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST
OF THE DIVIDE. THESE MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY. IT THEN LOOKS COOL AGAIN
FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS TODAY. FLGT CATEGORIES WL IMPRV MID-
LT AFTN. MRB LKLY THE LAST TO SEE SUCH PROGRESS. VFR THRU THE NGT.
WINDS LKLY TO BE THE BIGGER FACTOR TAFTN THRU TNGT INTO SUNDAY. NLY
FLOW 15G25KT TO DVLP BY MID AFTN. WL HV A 40-50 KT CORE OF WINDS
2000-3000 FT OFF THE DECK TNGT. WL HV SFC WNDS 20G30-35KT...SO WE
WONT QUITE ACHIEVE LLWS BY DEFINITION. WNDS WL BACK NWLY ON
SUNDAY...W/ 35 KT GUSTS LKLY.
SFC WINDS SHOULD LESSEN SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THOUGH COLD FRONTS WILL
SHIFT WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WL INCREASE THRU THE DAY AS LOPRES DVLPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HAVE GALE WARNING FOR THE BAY S OF SANDY PT INCL MOUTH OF
THE PTMC BASED ON MDL GDNC STRONGLY SUGGESTING G35 KT LKLY. AFTN
GUSTS 25-30 KT ELSW. ALL MARINE ZONES FCST TO HV 35-40 KT GUSTS
TNGT INTO SUN AS LOPRES DEEPENS IN THE WRN ATLC AND EJECTS NEWD.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. EXACTLY
HOW FAST REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA-LEVEL GUSTS
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SCA-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALL UNDER A FT ABOVE NORMAL...AND SHUDNT INCREASE
MUCH FURTHER. BLOWOUT FLOW DVLPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...DEPARTURES ON THE BAY
SHUD REACH 2 FT -BELOW- NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ANNAPOLIS NORTHWARD. THE
BLOWOUT SHUD BE LESS IN THE POTOMAC.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STRONG
PREV INFO...STRONG/HTS/JCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW DEEP WE MIX DURING
THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA...AND A TROUGH THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN TENNESSEE. IN BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE MS AND MO RIVERS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAD SET UP EARLY TONIGHT.
IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE MIXING AROUND
H9 OR H875 WHEREAS THE RAP MIXES HIGHER...AROUND H85. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER RANGE FROM 30KTS AROUND H9 TO 38KTS OR SO AT
H875. HARD TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BUT DID TREND WINDS UP
BASED ON THE RAP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON MIXING AND DID TREND READINGS
UP A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL LOOKING MARGINAL AS LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AOA 25 PERCENT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT FIRE CRITERIA AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
JUST DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH ATTM AND CONDITIONS...ARE
STILL BORDERLINE FOR MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE DPS WILL BE LOWER AND THIS
IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT QUITE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STEADY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS AND A MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MIGRATING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIGHTER SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG. WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND EVEN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT. THE MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25KTS AND GUST OVER 30KTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THRU THE DAY AND STEADY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN INTENSE LLVL
JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SFC RAPIDLY
INCREASING NEAR 50KTS...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LLWS. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SET UP A COOL
AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN
SPOTS. COLDER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD
TAPER OFF. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 730 AM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS HAS SET UP A NNE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH NAM
BUFKIT SHOWING MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THIS PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS...WITH THE HRRR FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.
FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND A BLEND OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...EXPECT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY BY LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST...DRIER (BUT COLDER) AIR WILL BUILD
IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION LEAVING IT MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
UPSLOPE REGIONS.
MEANWHILE...SNOW IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...WITH COOLER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BOTH HAMILTON AND TORONTO REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. THE 12Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -3C...WITH ABOVE
FREEZING AIR CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 2K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP SNOW WILL START TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT EVEN THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL RAIN TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION TODAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LIGHT AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800FT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH RELATIVELY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CAUSE SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO
AROUND -6C BY 00Z SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE JUST MOIST ENOUGH TO FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL DRY OUT AND LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS REGARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL END
PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN JUST LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA PATTERN WILL START THIS PERIOD...WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH...PLAINS RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH.
SUNDAY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY REGION...WITH THE LAST OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FOUND WITHIN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. SUFFICIENT DRYING IN THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD START AREAS NEAR THE LAKES MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY...WHILE INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY START RATHER CLOUDY BEFORE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND ALSO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE...A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SIMILAR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WHICH WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE PLAINS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD AND
CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT MAY BE NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH LAKE
PARAMETERS POOR FOR LAKE EFFECT...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OF 4 TO 5C AT 850 HPA WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING MID WEST STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY BRING
A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATE THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TODAY...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E TONIGHT.
JHW...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A
MODEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT. SNOW MAY
CAUSE PERIODIC VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO 2SM.
ART...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY VFR CIGS JUST
ABOVE 3 K FT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
940 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY: MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE RISK OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SE CWA... THE IMMINENT INCREASE IN
WINDS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LESSER COVERAGE
OVER NE NC... FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT... AND HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PIEDMONT. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED UP THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 6 C/KM... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM... AND MAXIMIZED DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED TO A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR... SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
REPORT OR TWO OF GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES APPROACH 0.8 IN. STILL
EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TO SHIFT INTO SRN AND SE SECTIONS AS THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF FLO SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... ALLOWING BANDED PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
SE CWA. LOWEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRIEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A THIRD TO
HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL ANTICIPATE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST... WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOWING 35-45 KT WINDS AT 2000-4000 FT
AGL TO TRANSLATE DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY... AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO FORWARD WITH ONE RIGHT NOW... BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 AM:
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
-DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...AREAS OF RAIN AND WITH THEM
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOWER CEILINGS OR BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES AS THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. TAFS
WILL REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART OR CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...WITH THE LATER AVIATION HAZARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEING THE WIND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND BY LATE TODAY EXPECT A FEW GUSTS IN VICINITY OF 30KT. NOT FAR
OFF OF THE SURFACE...THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BY 2000FT
CLOSING IN ON 50KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS SOME AT LEAST 10KT GREATER
THAN THE NAM. REGARDLESS...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT AND OFF OF THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST...AND CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BY...OR NOT LONG AFTER...06Z EVEN TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND GUSTINESS IN THE WIND SHOULD
GRADUALLY RELAX AS WELL ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...AND
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF ANY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
652 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...AREAS OF RAIN AND WITH THEM
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOWER CEILINGS OR BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES AS THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. TAFS
WILL REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART OR CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...WITH THE LATER AVIATION HAZARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEING THE WIND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND BY LATE TODAY EXPECT A FEW GUSTS IN VICINITY OF 30KT. NOT FAR
OFF OF THE SURFACE...THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BY 2000FT
CLOSING IN ON 50KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS SOME AT LEAST 10KT GREATER
THAN THE NAM. REGARDLESS...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT AND OFF OF THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST...AND CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BY...OR NOT LONG AFTER...06Z EVEN TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND GUSTINESS IN THE WIND SHOULD
GRADUALLY RELAX AS WELL ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...AND
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF ANY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WE HAVE INCREASED DEW POINTS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS MOIST
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT READINGS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. NELY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO SELY WITH 5 TO 10 KTS MOST AREAS LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU INCLUDING KDRT. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS IN STRATUS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A KVCT TO KHYI TO KAQO LINE
DURING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER EAST...WILL GO WITH ONLY A
TEMPO MID MORNING AT KAUS. BY LATE MORNING...CIGS RISE TO LOW END
VFR ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CAUSE DRY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS WE FALL BACK AN HOUR
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
SUNDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL DUE TO BOTH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM VANCE AND THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM.
IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OF ALL OF THE MID-RANGE FORECAST MODELS THE
GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GFS PW VALUES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH A TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FINALLY EJECTING OUT OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANOTHER MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL...THE DGEX SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS. IT HAS THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WHILE KEEP
THE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY.
WITH SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS HAVE GONE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW BLENDING THE MODELS TOGETHER...BUT
LEANING HEAVIER ON THE GFS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT THIS POINT
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
VANCE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH ARE NOT TIMED
TOGETHER...OR WE GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE LOW...BOTH DECREASING
THE CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. DESPITE THIS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT...THE TROUGH...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TREADWAY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 47 72 61 77 / 0 0 - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 42 73 58 77 / 0 0 - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 47 74 61 79 / 0 0 - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 47 69 61 74 / 0 0 - 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 57 74 64 79 / 0 - 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 44 70 59 76 / 0 0 - 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 47 72 61 77 / 0 - 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 45 74 60 78 / 0 0 - 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 43 74 61 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 52 74 65 79 / 0 0 - 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 76 64 80 / 0 0 - 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON SATURDAY...FALLING
FURTHER TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...AND AMOUNTS
VERY LIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS CA PUSHING EASTWARD. DEEP LAYER THICKNESS FALLS WILL
LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS ONLY
APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NV
WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF STRATOCU WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RUNNING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE SURFACE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
IN TWO PHASES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY. DYNAMICS WILL BE A BIT LIMITED AS THE MAIN UPPER JET
WILL STAY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND ONLY MODEST Q CONVERGENCE AND
UVV WILL OVERSPREAD THE DESERTS. MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO
THE NORTH OF PHOENIX...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WITH THE COOLER DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE STRONGEST WIND WITH THE TROF PASSAGE WILL OCCUR
TODAY...WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN DESERTS INCLUDING FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF JOSHUA
TREE NP...AND PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY SUCH AS EL CENTRO AND
IMPERIAL. FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
THE SECOND PHASE OF THE TROF PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN COLD CORE OF THE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AZ AND THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. A VERY IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS MOST OF
ARIZONA SUNDAY...AND THE UPPER JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUADRANT FOR
ENHANCED LIFT. BRISK LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AS SUCH...WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DESPITE STRONG
DYNAMICS SUNDAY...MOISTURE REMAINS A BIT LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES
MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 0.75 INCHES AND AS SUCH WE DO NOT EXPECT THE
PRECIP THAT FALLS TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DESERTS SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WITH THE COOLER DESERTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 73 DEGREES.
DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY PERSISTS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. ALSO...IN THE RECENT PAST GFS HAS OUTPERFORMED THE
ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO BOTH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS
AND SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS SATURDAY SOMETIME MID TO LATE
MORNING...LIKELY IN THE 4K-6K LEVEL. THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND
EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF BROKEN CIGS.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISPERSE AND RISE SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY... AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KIPL. EXPECTING WINDS TO
SLACKEN SOME AT KIPL AFTER SUNRISE...BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY. WITH
FULL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...STRONGER WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND
SUNSET.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
BUT WARMING IN THE WEEK. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAY AND NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. LIGHTER WIND
WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BREEZES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW WITH PLENTY STILL OUT OVER
THE WATERS HEADING TOWARD OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT HAS NOT PICKED UP ANY STRIKES, THE PATTERN IS
DEFINITELY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP TODAY.
ECHOS HAVE GENERALLY BENN UNDER 50 DBZ, ALTHOUGH SEEING A FEW
RETURNS OVER 55. PROBABLY GETTING SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THEM.
KOAK SOUNDING AND PROFILERS ALSO PEG THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
5,700 FEET SUGGESTING THAT LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 5,000 FEET ARE
PROBABLY GETTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ANYWAY, CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROF AND LATEST HRRR INFORMATION, WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE
POPS A BIT FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE REGION.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FORECAST MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 200-600 J/KG. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BAY...THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION STAYING DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY. VFR EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY AREA TAF
SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE AT KMRY AND KSNS
AIRPORTS UNDER HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG IS A LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WINDS OF 15 KTS
OR LESS EXPECTD.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING NEAR MONTEREY
BAY WILL IMPACT KMRY AND KSNS THROUGH 20Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT SATURDAY...NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROUGH. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL DEVELOP CREATING SOME
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE START OF CRAB SEASON. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
ENTERING MONTEREY BAY WILL CREATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS FROM
ASILOMAR TO MONTEREY STATE BEACHES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
SURFACE HEATING WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE
HEATING WILL ALLOW MORE VERTICAL MIXING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND OF THAT
PACIFIC STORM MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD AND SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS SFC GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN BATTLE BETWEEN
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND COLDER CONDITIONS ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS UTAH. LATEST SHRT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN
ACTIVE MORNING PERIOD AS WEAK WAVE EJECTING OUT AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARRIVES. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO PICK-UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND LATEST HRRR MODEL DRIVES THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. H7
SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 15Z AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS GRADIENTS
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...NOT PLANNING ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
WITH RAIN HITTING THE VALLEY FLOORS...SO MOMENTUM TRANSFER LIKELY
HINDERED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING IN. WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR VALUES EXPERIENCE YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT TODAY.
AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AN INITIAL
WAVE OF ENERGY SPLITS OFF AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE STORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH IN THE EVENING IS PROGGED
TO STALL ROUGHLY ALONG A KDWX TO 20 TO 30 MILES EAST OF KPGA LINE
BY 12Z/SUN. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IN
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS A 100KT JET NOSES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BRING A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. MEANWHILE...7H TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR ZERO ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
ACCUMULATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY BALANCED JET
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HOLDS THE SYSTEM
IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT EASES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF CAA. CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO MARKEDLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW 8000 FEET. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOUNTAIN
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET ALIGNED WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPECIFICALLY...THIS WATCH WILL INCLUDE
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH...THE GRAND MESA...AND THE FLAT
TOPS. ALSO INCLUDED ARE THE WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS FAVORED. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL
COULD POTENTIALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE ON HIGHER SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. UNDERSTANDABLY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
FLAT RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED. WITH THE RIDGE COMES DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HEATING
WILL HELP NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AGAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL AFFECTED KASE...KEGE AND KTEX...WITH OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINWAVE TURBULENCE DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ009-012-013-018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JDC/NL
LONG TERM...NL/JDC
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Early this morning at 08Z the surface high pressure ridge extended
from northeast Iowa across northeast Kansas into south central
Oklahoma. Light southeast winds have developed across north central
Kansas on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures were in
the 20s and dewpoint temps were in the teens to lower 20s.
An upper level trough was moving into the the west coast while a
ridge was building over the High Plains. As the upper trough
continues to move eastward the upper ridge will build into the
Plains Today then move eastward tonight with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Kansas early Sunday morning. Pressure gradient
increases today across western and central Kansas east of a trough
of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and on the back side of
the surface high. Models vary how deep mixing will be today across
north central Kansas. RUC mixes deeper than the NAM and have going
with a blend of the two and have bumped up temperatures and
increased winds. Winds could gust to around 30 mph in north central
Kansas this afternoon.
Pressure gradient will gradually increase tonight as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. This will keep the lower boundary
layer mixed and overnight lows warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Skies will be partly cloudy tonight with clouds developing in warm
advection regime.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Low level inversion remains strong through Sunday afternoon, with
mixing depths limited to a few thousand feet on even the most
aggressive NAM, so despite a rather strong pressure gradient and
850mb winds near 50kt, expect surface winds to remain below Advisory
speeds. Warm air advection will still lead to temps 10-15F above
today`s levels however.
Moisture slowly increases in the middle to lower layers Sunday night
into Monday evening as large-scale upper trough works it way east
into the Plains. There is some decent agreement with a weak wave
entering northern Kansas Sunday night so will maintain small chances
for mainly northern and western areas then, with still the greater
coverage anticipated in the late day and evening hours Monday.
Instability remains meager but enough for a thunder mention.
After perhaps some lingering showers early Tuesday as the trough
exits, remainder of the week is looking dry. Models are similar with
southern end of trough cutting off from the flow in the New
Mexico/West Texas area, but differ with what to do with it from
there. ECMWF seems to be backing off the idea of bringing it
northeast into the area with none of the GFS ensemble members doing
so, so no precip chance will be included in the latter periods.
Temps look to bounce around a bit in fairly quick zonal flow over
the northern states, with slightly warmer temps for Wednesday but
cooler again Thursday behind a Pacific cold front, and southerly
winds returning Friday for modification to occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
Main focus will be winds with VFR conditions prevailing. Overnight there
may be an occasional gusts around 20 kt at any of the sites. Also,
the soundings show wind shear of about 30 to 40 kts in a 2 kft
layer lasting most of the overnight hours and into late morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A POTENT PRE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS DEEPENING FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING FOR
PARTS OF LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THERE THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST...THERE WILL BE JUST
A THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS DEPARTING. THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AND AN
SPS. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT TOO GONE FAR FROM MORNING LOWS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE CAA...PCPN...AND THICK CLOUDS. AT
THIS POINT...READINGS VARY FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE
MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...THOUGH 28 IS SEEN ON BLACK MOUNTAIN AND 32 AT
THE DORTON MESONET SITE. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE
STATE FROM THE WEST IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE WITH STRONGLY RISING HEIGHTS
TO HELP US PUT THIS EARLY TASTE OF WINTER BEHIND US. IN GENERAL...
FOLLOWED THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER AFTER TONIGHT ONCE THE
PCPN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END IN THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW BRINGING A HARD FREEZE AND
FROST TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAWN. FOR THIS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER DAY TIME TEMPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOSE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN A GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATION COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE VALLEYS GETTING AS COLD
IF NOT COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE TONIGHT WHILE RIDGES SETTLE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WOULD ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO RESULT FROM THESE
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY OUR GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WINDS AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. WENT WITH
MORE OF A DIURNAL CURVE FROM THE NAM12 FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AFTER
EDITING THE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS. GIVEN HOW THE CONSSHORT WAS IN THE
TOO WARM INITIALLY HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM IT FOR TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...
WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WAS KEPT LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE MOS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL ANCHORED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
EXITS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM EXITING THE REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WILL KEEP A STEADY
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE LACK OF HEATING AND THE SURFACE FEATURE
WEAKENING AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE EXTENDED. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO KEEP
FROM COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SO WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS
THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BIT OF FLIP FLOPPING IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE LIFR AND IFR CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE
EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA AND THEN VFR BY DAWN...STAYING THAT WAY INTO THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE SETTLING THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE COMPLETELY OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-
118.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1258 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
No major changes in the forecast for this afternoon. Clouds hanging
on tough from SDF to GLW and points eastward. Model guidance trends
suggest this will begin to scatter out in the next few hours, but
will lean on the latest satellite and observations and play the
forecast more pessimistic, keeping stratus deck in place through the
early evening. The low cloud cover is keeping temperatures held down
in mid to upper 30s across the Bluegrass and Cumberland regions, so
have trended highs down a couple more degrees. Some of these areas
will see steady or only a very slow rise. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast is on track.
Issued at 912 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
Minor adjustments made to the forecast for the remainder of the
morning hours and into the early afternoon. Still deep in the
cyclonic flow as another lobe of vorticity rotates through the
eastern forecast area. Upstream radar and observations show
scattered snow showers that will pivot south over the next several
hours. Increased POPs to the 30-50 percent range. Snow showers
will remain light and not expecting any accumulations as snow
rates will be very light as well. Snow showers will transition to
rain/snow mix by early afternoon.
Temperatures were adjusted downward, especially in the east, as
clouds, precipitation, and cold advection will really dampen any
diurnal rise. Plan on overcast skies for much of the day as model RH
fields suggest clouds and low level moisture hanging around through
at least 21z or 00z. This will keep temperatures from rising much,
and some locations around LEX and points east likely to struggle to
break 40. Overall, an unseasonably cold and raw day on tap.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The core of a deep and cold 500mb low, now over eastern Tennessee,
will move east offshore of North Carolina by this evening. In its
wake, surface high pressure of Canadian origin will sag south and
lie over Illinois this evening.
Radar trends agree with the HRRR and the RR short range models in
diminishing any lingering light rain or snow and moving it southeast
towards eastern Tennessee towards dawn. By dawn any lingering mixed
precipitation will continue only across the Lake Cumberland Region
and south of the Bluegrass Region. Some occasional drizzle may
continue through dawn along or east of Interstate 65.
Blustery and cold weather expected again today, with north winds
continuing at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph through
mid-morning, diminishing to northerly around 10 mph by this evening.
Clearing will be slow and will occur in a west to east fashion.
Areas across west central Kentucky west of Interstate 65 may clear
towards early to mid afternoon, while our eastern counties may stay
cloudy all day. Highs will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
west of Bowling Green.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a hard freeze which
should end the growing season this year. Winds may become calm
towards dawn as high pressure passes directly over the Commonwealth.
Lows early Sunday will vary from the mid to upper 20s. A freeze
warning will remain in effect for early Sunday. Plan to cancel the
freeze warning already in place early this morning for our counties
west of Interstate 65. Cloud cover and winds will keep these western
counties from going much below 34 degrees this morning.
Sunday will become mostly sunny, with calm morning winds becoming
light southerly by afternoon. Temperatures will rebound into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions for the medium and
extended range are in fairly decent agreement this morning. The
long term period will start off with a deep trough working its way
off the eastern US coast. Upstream ridging will be moving into our
region providing a couple of days of dry weather along with
moderating temperatures.
Sunday night/Monday morning will start off cool...but probably not
as cool as Sunday morning. Lows will likely range from the lower
30s in the east to the mid/upper 30s in the central and western
sections. Under mostly sunny skies, we expect Monday afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s in the east with lower 60s
in the central and western sections. With the upper and surface
ridge pushing eastward Monday night, we`ll see a southerly flow
return to the region. Milder overnight readings look likely with
lows only cooling into the lower 40s in the east with middle 40s out
west.
By Tuesday, a fairly hefty upper trough is forecast to dig over the
desert southwest...while a weaker mid-level wave pushes through
within the northerly branch of the jet along the US/Canadian border
region. This will result in a continued, broad southwesterly flow
across our region. A surface cold front will slowly sag through the
region bringing a a good shot of rainfall to the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some lingering showers may occur Wednesday
night before a return to dry conditions commences for Thursday
through Friday. The multi-model consensus still suggests 40-60
percent PoP chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The current
forecast has this well handled, and only some minor adjustments will
be required. Highs Tuesday out ahead of the front will be mild with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60
still look good for Wednesday with lows in the lower-middle 40s by
Thursday morning.
Behind Wednesday`s passing front, we`ll see another cool down in
temperatures. However, with the air being more of a Pacific origin,
it will not be as cool as what we saw earlier in the
weekend...especially since the upper trough will pass further to our
northeast. Highs Thursday will likely warm into the lower-middle
50s in the north with upper 50s to around 60 across southern KY.
Highs Friday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s in the northeast with lower-middle 50s across the
central sections...with upper 50s confined down along the KY/TN
border region. Overnight lows will be cooler as well with lows
cooling back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1255 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The MVFR stratus deck continues from SDF to GLW and points eastward,
including LEX, and this is expected to linger through the remainder
of the afternoon. Ceilings have been slow to lift with daytime
mixing, but SDF should gradually rise to VFR and scatter out by
00Z. LEX remains deeper within the cyclonic flow and latest
satellite and observations show the 1500-2000 ft ceilings
continuing well upstream. Model guidance is more optimistic with
this scattering out but trends suggest otherwise. Played the
forecast more pessimistic thinking that the low-level moisture
will remain trapped, but still suggest clouds scattering out later
this evening.
Gusty winds 20-25 kts will remain in place this afternoon but
eventually the surface high will move eastward, relaxing the
pressure gradient. This should set up light/variable winds at
BWG/SDF overnight with still a light north wind at LEX. Dry sub-cloud
conditions will preclude fog formation at BWG. For Sunday, plan on
VFR conditions with light winds and full sunshine.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 AM
EST /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW DEEP WE MIX DURING
THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA...AND A TROUGH THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN TENNESSEE. IN BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE MS AND MO RIVERS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAD SET UP EARLY TONIGHT.
IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE MIXING AROUND
H9 OR H875 WHEREAS THE RAP MIXES HIGHER...AROUND H85. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER RANGE FROM 30KTS AROUND H9 TO 38KTS OR SO AT
H875. HARD TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BUT DID TREND WINDS UP
BASED ON THE RAP AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON MIXING AND DID TREND READINGS
UP A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL LOOKING MARGINAL AS LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST AOA 25 PERCENT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT FIRE CRITERIA AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
JUST DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH ATTM AND CONDITIONS...ARE
STILL BORDERLINE FOR MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE DPS WILL BE LOWER AND THIS
IS STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT QUITE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STEADY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS AND A MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MIGRATING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE LIGHTER SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG. WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND EVEN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT. THE MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ELEMENT. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE KGRI/KEAR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF
WEAKENING SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS WILL
BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. TOP END OF GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
BUT STEADY 15-20KT WIND REMAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ITS VFR IN TERMS OF CEILING AND
VISIBILITY...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL
MESONET AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND
2500 FEET AND SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS LOW AS AROUND 1200 FEET.
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...WITH
THE LOW LEVELS STILL DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE LARGER
VALLEYS SO FAR. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTWARD. FREEZING LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY
5PM WITH SNOW LEVELS DESCENDING TO ABOUT 800-1000 FEET OR SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES INITIAL VORT MOVING ALONG THE NJ
COASTLINE WITH PRIMARY CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOME ENERGY ALSO EVIDENT WITH UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE INITIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AT 1000MB WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE FALLS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK INTENSIFYING
TO AROUND 995MB. THE SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY LATE TODAY WITH AN ANTICIPATED SIMILAR TRACK JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
INITIAL WAVE IS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND IMPRESSIVE COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...HAS SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS NORTHERN NJ...INTO
PORTIONS OF MASS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH/ME. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED TRACK AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINKING THAT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM A RUT-MPV-1V4 LINE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL...MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDING
ANALYSIS PLACES THE FREEZING LINE AT AROUND 2500 FEET
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET...AND POSSIBLY LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL LOWER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM 35-42F...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE
SEASON IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE. OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.
AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO SEE MOBILE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME INDICATION IN THE ECMWF/GFS THAT THE
SECOND TROUGH POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF VT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS THAT WE COULD SEE HIGHER
ELEVATION PRECIPITATION SWITCH TO SNOW FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ALSO...INCREASING NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING WE/LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. APART FROM THOSE TWO
SYSTEMS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID-UPR 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03-04Z TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING
AT A LIGHT RAIN AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 20-22Z...FOLLOWED BY
A SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NO IMPACT TO PAVED SURFACES BELOW
1000 FT...MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SLUSH ON THE RUNWAYS AT
SLK/MPV AFTER SUNSET. GENERALLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IFR AT MPV. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AFTER 04Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS...WITH WIND DIRECTION REMAINING FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15-25 KTS. WINDS
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING -SHRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
145 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL
MESONET AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND
2500 FEET AND SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS LOW AS AROUND 1200 FEET.
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...WITH
THE LOW LEVELS STILL DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE LARGER
VALLEYS SO FAR. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTWARD. FREEZING LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY
5PM WITH SNOW LEVELS DESCENDING TO ABOUT 800-1000 FEET OR SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES INITIAL VORT MOVING ALONG THE NJ
COASTLINE WITH PRIMARY CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOME ENERGY ALSO EVIDENT WITH UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE INITIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AT 1000MB WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE FALLS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK INTENSIFYING
TO AROUND 995MB. THE SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY LATE TODAY WITH AN ANTICIPATED SIMILAR TRACK JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
INITIAL WAVE IS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND IMPRESSIVE COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...HAS SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS NORTHERN NJ...INTO
PORTIONS OF MASS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH/ME. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED TRACK AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINKING THAT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM A RUT-MPV-1V4 LINE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL...MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDING
ANALYSIS PLACES THE FREEZING LINE AT AROUND 2500 FEET
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET...AND POSSIBLY LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL LOWER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM 35-42F...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE
SEASON IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE. OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.
AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS. AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...WARMING AT 850 MB (+6 TO +8C) WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY
AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
DESPITE COOLER 850 MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY DUE DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER FLOW TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING SYSTEM MAY BECOME CUTOFF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN RATHER HIGH INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ASSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03-04Z TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING
AT A LIGHT RAIN AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 20-22Z...FOLLOWED BY
A SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NO IMPACT TO PAVED SURFACES BELOW
1000 FT...MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SLUSH ON THE RUNWAYS AT
SLK/MPV AFTER SUNSET. GENERALLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IFR AT MPV. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AFTER 04Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS...WITH WIND DIRECTION REMAINING FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15-25 KTS. WINDS
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING -SHRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
104 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A
SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL
MESONET AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND
2500 FEET AND SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS LOW AS AROUND 1200 FEET.
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...WITH
THE LOW LEVELS STILL DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE LARGER
VALLEYS SO FAR. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTWARD. FREEZING LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY
5PM WITH SNOW LEVELS DESCENDING TO ABOUT 800-1000 FEET OR SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES INITIAL VORT MOVING ALONG THE NJ
COASTLINE WITH PRIMARY CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOME ENERGY ALSO EVIDENT WITH UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE INITIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AT 1000MB WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE FALLS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK INTENSIFYING
TO AROUND 995MB. THE SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY LATE TODAY WITH AN ANTICIPATED SIMILAR TRACK JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
INITIAL WAVE IS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND IMPRESSIVE COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...HAS SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS NORTHERN NJ...INTO
PORTIONS OF MASS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH/ME. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED TRACK AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINKING THAT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM A RUT-MPV-1V4 LINE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL...MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDING
ANALYSIS PLACES THE FREEZING LINE AT AROUND 2500 FEET
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET...AND POSSIBLY LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL LOWER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM 35-42F...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE
SEASON IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H
HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS BLW AVERAGE. OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER
LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION
TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS POTENT 5H VORT DIVES INTO THE SE CONUS...A FULL LATITUDE TROF WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING....WITH ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRES FROM THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW PRES WL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE CENTER BY
12Z SUNDAY...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS INTERACTION WITH POTENT
5H VORT OCCURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS TRACK TYPICALLY PLACES
HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST...WITH OUR CWA ON WESTERN FRINGE. RAPID SFC
DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AND SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WL
LEAVE A SHARP WEST TO EAST PRECIP GRADIENT...WL HEAVIEST QPF
EXPECTED ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...JUST EAST OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUR QPF WL ACTUAL OCCUR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT/WEAK MID WAA...AND DEPARTING RRQ OF 25H JET
ACRS EASTERN CANADA. IR SATL ALREADY SHOWING COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ACRS SNE/WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LVL FLW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY FROM DIGGING TROF ACRS THE SE CONUS...THIS
MOISTURE WL ADVECT INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLW FROM THE SFC
THRU 925MB WL BE ADVECTING LLVL DRY INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP THE
BATTLE BTWN DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THINKING
SOME VIRGA WL BE POSSIBLE...AS PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA. THINKING LIGHT RAIN WL START ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BTWN 15-18Z...SPREAD INTO CENTRAL VT/EASTERN DACKS BTWN
18-21Z...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AFT 21Z TODAY. INITIALLY
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 4C...SUPPORTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS AND ABOVE 2500 FT FOR SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.
DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLW WL CONT TO COOL THE COLUMN
FURTHER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET BY 21Z FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND 1500 FT FOR MTNS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS SHOW LEVELS DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR...EVEN INTO THE CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT AS THIS OCCURS BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IS
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF QPF AND HOW MUCH WL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA. ITS BEEN NOTED WE DON`T
HAVE THE STRONG UVVS TO COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES...SO THE CHANGE ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL OCCUR
SLOWLY AND PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
FLAKES.
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MAYBE A DUSTING OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CPV/EASTERN
DACKS...THINKING A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT...BUT THINKING DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z
SUNDAY....GIVEN INCREASED FLUFF FACTOR AT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING THERMAL PROFILES. CIPS 15 TOP ANALOGS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING
WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT.
AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY...GRADIENT
INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA...WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED CPV AND PARTS OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY...LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE MTN SUMMITS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH 85H FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND SPEED WL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS FLW BECOMES
FAVORABLE...LLVLS ARE QUICKLY DRYING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED WE LOSE RH
IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION BY 15Z SUNDAY. WL USE CLIMO
ADJUST POP TOOL AND TRY TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MIXES TO THE SFC ON SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE COLD
WITH VALUES AROUND -8C...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U10S TO M20S
MTNS TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS...MAYBE NEAR 40F AT BTV. NAM/ECWMF
AND GFS SHOW DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON NW FLW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES...BUT 85H WINDS ARE STILL BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXING TWD MORNING. HAVE NOTED MAV/MET AT SLK DOWN TO
9F FOR A LOW AND NEAR 20F AT BTV...BUT THINKING THIS IS TOO COLD
GIVEN WINDS/MIXING...SO WL MENTION LOWS IN THE M/U TEENS MTN
VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 20S WARMER VALLEYS...GOOD TEMPS FOR MAKING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DROPPING RH VALUES. MONDAY WL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS. AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...WARMING AT 850 MB (+6 TO +8C) WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY
AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
DESPITE COOLER 850 MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY DUE DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER FLOW TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING SYSTEM MAY BECOME CUTOFF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN RATHER HIGH INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ASSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN
CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z. NO OBSTRUCTION TO
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 23Z WHEN VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
3-5SM WITH PSBL IFR AT MPV IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON: MVFR CIGS WITH LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.
00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR
12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWERING CEILINGS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH VOLTAGE ARCING AND
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER AND SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY. OWING TO THE
COMPLEX NATURE OF THE PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO
SERVICE WILL BE SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
THE WINDS AND THE FALLING TEMPS.
OVERVIEW: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
CHS... WOBBLING EASTWARD WITH MULTIPLE SLOTS OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE
PRIMARY LOW -- LOCATED OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE FRI -- NOW WELL OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE EXPECTED SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS TRACKING EASTWARD OVER FAR NE SC AND SE NC. THIN BROKEN
BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC... AS THE BULK OF THE INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT TRACKS JUST SOUTH/SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA... HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP
LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NW OF THE 850 MB LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
WINDS: FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME 20+ KT GUSTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. LAURINBURG HAS BEEN THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A GUST TO 32
KTS... BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS ELSEWHERE HAVE NOT EXCEEDED 30 KTS.
FOLLOWING THE HRRR MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT
WE`RE LIKELY STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM THE MAX MIXED LAYER DEPTH
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAGNITUDES SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS STILL JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA... BUT IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS BEING TOSSED AROUND AND SOME WEAK TREE BRANCHES KNOCKED
DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
PRECIP: BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SE AND ERN EDGE OF THE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS ON THE NRN AND WRN SIDES OF THE
STRENGTHENING BUT DEPARTING LOW. MUCH OF THE NRN AND NW CWA HOWEVER
ARE SEEING TOO MUCH DRYING ALOFT (700 MB AND ABOVE) AND NEAR THE
SURFACE (BELOW 900 MB) TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIP. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR SE/E BUT
BUMPED THEM DOWN TO 20-40% ACROSS THE NORTH AND NW. EXPECT DRYING
EVERYWHERE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TRACK ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST... FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
WILL HAVE NO PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS: LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN CHALLENGING... AS THE INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE STEADY NW BREEZE AND
PERSISTENT MIXING OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST
BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SLIP TO 30-32F LATE TONIGHT... BUT THESE NEAR-
AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO... GIVEN
THE STEADY MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR TO STAY
BLOCKED UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL NOT GO WITH
A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME... BUT STAY TUNED
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING IN THE EVENT THAT THE TEMPS THIS EVENING
DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED. LOW 31 WEST TO 38 EAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT THE BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER WRN NY/PA
AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD... BRUSHING
ACROSS NE NC SUN MORNING. AFTER PREDAWN WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT... WILL DEPICT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COMING BACK INTO THE NE
CWA SUN MORNING... SHIFTING EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY SUNNY OVER CENTRAL NC WITH
DRY SUBSIDING MID LEVELS AND RISING HEIGHTS. THE AFTERNOON MIXED
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT DRY ADIABATIC... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CHILLY THICKNESSES STARTING THE DAY AROUND 1300 M INDICATES HIGHS OF
JUST 51-55. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR BRISK SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING OF AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THEN ON SUN
NIGHT... THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE CORE
SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE SUN NIGHT OVER THE NRN AND NW CWA... GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
INVERSION ALOFT UP THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE AS WELL AS AN AREA OF
INCOMING MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB FROM THE WNW. THIS MOISTURE APPEAR
SHALLOW HOWEVER... SO ANY SUCH CIRRUS MAY BE TOO THIN TO HAMPER THE
DROP IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE... SEE NO REASON WHY THE ENTIRE CWA WON`T SEE
TEMPS AT OR WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL POST A
FREEZE WATCH FOR 06Z-13Z SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE GROWING
SEASON OVER CENTRAL NC. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL HELP TO STEER A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ABANDONED BY ITS PARENT LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC...BUT
LATER BE PICKED UP BY A WEAKER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT THE ORGANIZATION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT AND
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TIMING DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIPITATION SOME TIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORING A
BIT LATER TIMING MAY HELP TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY AND WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY...LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
THE WINDS AND THE FALLING TEMPS.
OVERVIEW: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
CHS... WOBBLING EASTWARD WITH MULTIPLE SLOTS OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE
PRIMARY LOW -- LOCATED OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE FRI -- NOW WELL OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE EXPECTED SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS TRACKING EASTWARD OVER FAR NE SC AND SE NC. THIN BROKEN
BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC... AS THE BULK OF THE INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT TRACKS JUST SOUTH/SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA... HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP
LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NW OF THE 850 MB LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
WINDS: FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME 20+ KT GUSTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. LAURINBURG HAS BEEN THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A GUST TO 32
KTS... BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS ELSEWHERE HAVE NOT EXCEEDED 30 KTS.
FOLLOWING THE HRRR MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT
WE`RE LIKELY STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM THE MAX MIXED LAYER DEPTH
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAGNITUDES SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS STILL JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA... BUT IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS BEING TOSSED AROUND AND SOME WEAK TREE BRANCHES KNOCKED
DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
PRECIP: BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SE AND ERN EDGE OF THE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS ON THE NRN AND WRN SIDES OF THE
STRENGTHENING BUT DEPARTING LOW. MUCH OF THE NRN AND NW CWA HOWEVER
ARE SEEING TOO MUCH DRYING ALOFT (700 MB AND ABOVE) AND NEAR THE
SURFACE (BELOW 900 MB) TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIP. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR SE/E BUT
BUMPED THEM DOWN TO 20-40% ACROSS THE NORTH AND NW. EXPECT DRYING
EVERYWHERE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TRACK ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST... FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
WILL HAVE NO PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS: LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN CHALLENGING... AS THE INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE STEADY NW BREEZE AND
PERSISTENT MIXING OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST
BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SLIP TO 30-32F LATE TONIGHT... BUT THESE NEAR-
AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO... GIVEN
THE STEADY MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR TO STAY
BLOCKED UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL NOT GO WITH
A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME... BUT STAY TUNED
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING IN THE EVENT THAT THE TEMPS THIS EVENING
DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED. LOW 31 WEST TO 38 EAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL HELP TO STEER A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ABANDONED BY ITS PARENT LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC...BUT
LATER BE PICKED UP BY A WEAKER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT THE ORGANIZATION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT AND
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TIMING DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIPITATION SOME TIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORING A
BIT LATER TIMING MAY HELP TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY AND WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY...LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
229 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY: MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE RISK OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SE CWA... THE IMMINENT INCREASE IN
WINDS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LESSER COVERAGE
OVER NE NC... FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT... AND HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PIEDMONT. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED UP THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 6 C/KM... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM... AND MAXIMIZED DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED TO A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR... SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
REPORT OR TWO OF GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES APPROACH 0.8 IN. STILL
EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TO SHIFT INTO SRN AND SE SECTIONS AS THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF FLO SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... ALLOWING BANDED PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
SE CWA. LOWEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRIEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A THIRD TO
HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL ANTICIPATE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST... WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOWING 35-45 KT WINDS AT 2000-4000 FT
AGL TO TRANSLATE DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY... AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO FORWARD WITH ONE RIGHT NOW... BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 AM:
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
-DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL HELP TO STEER A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BOTH THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ABANDONED BY ITS PARENT LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC...BUT
LATER BE PICKED UP BY A WEAKER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT THE ORGANIZATION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT AND
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TIMING DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIPITATION SOME TIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORING A
BIT LATER TIMING MAY HELP TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY AND WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY...LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AS CHILLY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY: MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE RISK OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SE CWA... THE IMMINENT INCREASE IN
WINDS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LESSER COVERAGE
OVER NE NC... FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT... AND HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PIEDMONT. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED UP THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 6 C/KM... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM... AND MAXIMIZED DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED TO A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR... SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
REPORT OR TWO OF GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES APPROACH 0.8 IN. STILL
EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TO SHIFT INTO SRN AND SE SECTIONS AS THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF FLO SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... ALLOWING BANDED PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
SE CWA. LOWEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRIEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A THIRD TO
HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL ANTICIPATE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST... WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOWING 35-45 KT WINDS AT 2000-4000 FT
AGL TO TRANSLATE DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY... AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO FORWARD WITH ONE RIGHT NOW... BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 AM:
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED BAGGY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE WEST ACROSS THE
YADKIN RIVER. SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE DAY...
INCLUDING...
WIND...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS FORECASTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS AT 925MB TO 850MB IN
VICINITY OF 50KT. THE RAP AND THE NAM ARE...ON AVERAGE...AT LEAST
10KT LESS. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND ONCE
SKIES START TO CLEAR ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT QUITE AT THE LEVELS
ONE WOULD LOOK FOR IN TERMS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME
CLEARING BEGINS LATER...ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS AT TIMES BRIEFLY
NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE...30KT. COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64
WHICH MAY MAKE FOR DIMINISHING OR SCATTERING OF AREAS OF RAIN FOR A
TIME THERE. LATER...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
PIVOT BACK OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 03Z...THOUGH IN THE
FARTHEST EAST PORTIONS THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN LINGERING
JUST SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT MUCH AS GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY TONIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE HIGHEST QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT IS FORECAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONG 300MB
AND 500MB JETS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CELL THAT MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HINT OF
GRAUPEL...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
REMAIN IN THE LIQUID RANGE OR ON THE EDGE OF INDETERMINATE...WHICH
USUALLY MEANS RAIN WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID...MOSTLY AOA 3000FT.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS
ESSENTIALLY WARM TO MOIST ADIABATIC BY 15Z OR SO. WHILE LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO JUST ABOVE 0C DURING THE DAY...0-3KM COMPUTED CAPE
DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING THE STRONGER ECHOES
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WERE NOT PRODUCING THUNDER...AND WHILE A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN A HINT OF GRAUPEL...FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SPC GENERAL THUNDER
IS EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OR A
BLEND...BASED ON ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES OR WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN SOME PRECIPITATION IN PLACES. NOT
MUCH OF A RISE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...46 TO 51...TO
MOSTLY MID 50S FROM KFAY TO KRWI. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY WARMED
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KFAY...AND WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX AT KGSO. CHILLY DAY FOR THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...THOUGH.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG...AND WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE
UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT HELPING TO CONTINUE MIXING...THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CANNOT BE IGNORED.
BRIEFLY CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF A FREEZE TONIGHT IN WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR THREE IN SHELTERED SPOTS
BRIEFLY A TOUCH COLDER. MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER.
-DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY LIFTS N-NE SUNDAY...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT EARLY SUNDAY SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES THE MORE
DOMINANT PLAYER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTS WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS FREQUENT. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 40-50M BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
REGIME IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEASON ENDING FREEZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS (TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING NEAR THE OH
RIVER AT 2 AM)...POTENTIAL FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE CAVEAT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THAT SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE(SPECIFICALLY THE NAM) IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDINESS TO OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE
OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... AIR MASS MODERATES AS S/W RIDGE AND
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. POSITION FO TEH
SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID IN
THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT AS CHILLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST WITH A WEAK
RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
(MID 60S-NEAR 70). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE L/WROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE S/WS WILL PROPEL A SFC FRONT SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
GULF IS ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF SO SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS ON
MOISTURE WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK CANADIAN HIGH....SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE
STARVED ONCE IT GETS TO CENTRAL NC. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT
LOOKS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR 70 NW AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUDS FAIL TO THICKEN/LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SE U.S. FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE THE LARGER AVIATION THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH 00Z... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE SUB-3K-FT CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. RAIN WILL BE SPORADIC AND PRODUCE
ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... HOWEVER
FAY MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. AFTER AROUND 23Z... ANY
THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS CIGS AT ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT AGL BY THEN WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING NEAR FAY/RWI. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 21Z... THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO NW
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... TAPERING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 12 KTS GUSTING TO UNDER 15 KTS. NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO 13-16 KTS GUSTING TO 20-23
KTS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FOR GOOD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN... CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN EAST AND
OFFSHORE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE FROM
THE SW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A CHANCE OF FOG AND SUB-VFR STRATUS LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
07Z/09Z SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM TIME-SECTION
DIFFER FROM THE GFS SOLUTION AND DELAY THE FORMATION OF LOW
CLOUDS/STRATO CU FIELD OVER AUS TO 15Z SUNDAY VS 09Z/10Z OF THE
GFS. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SITES...THE NAM AND GFS CONCUR ON
LOW MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 10Z SUNDAY (A LITTLE EARLIER ACROSS
KDRT 09Z...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE). AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILAR TIMING FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AND THE WRF SIMULATED GOES-R MAINTAINS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A KT82 TO KSAT TO KBEA LINE.
WILL PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND BRING A
TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR ACROSS KAUS JUST AN HOUR EARLIER (13Z TO
16Z). VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY NOON SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS KDRT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WE HAVE INCREASED DEW POINTS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS MOIST
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT READINGS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. NELY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO SELY WITH 5 TO 10 KTS MOST AREAS LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU INCLUDING KDRT. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS IN STRATUS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A KVCT TO KHYI TO KAQO LINE
DURING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER EAST...WILL GO WITH ONLY A
TEMPO MID MORNING AT KAUS. BY LATE MORNING...CIGS RISE TO LOW END
VFR ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CAUSE DRY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS WE FALL BACK AN HOUR
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
SUNDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL DUE TO BOTH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM VANCE AND THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM.
IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OF ALL OF THE MID-RANGE FORECAST MODELS THE
GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GFS PW VALUES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH A TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FINALLY EJECTING OUT OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANOTHER MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL...THE DGEX SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS. IT HAS THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WHILE KEEP
THE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY.
WITH SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS HAVE GONE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW BLENDING THE MODELS TOGETHER...BUT
LEANING HEAVIER ON THE GFS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT THIS POINT
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
VANCE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH ARE NOT TIMED
TOGETHER...OR WE GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE LOW...BOTH DECREASING
THE CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. DESPITE THIS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT...THE TROUGH...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TREADWAY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 72 61 77 65 / - - 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 42 73 58 77 63 / - - 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 74 61 79 65 / - - 10 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 47 69 61 74 64 / - - 10 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 74 64 79 67 / - 10 10 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 70 59 76 64 / 0 - 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 72 61 77 64 / - 10 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 45 74 60 78 64 / - - 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 43 74 61 79 65 / - 10 10 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 52 74 65 79 68 / - - 10 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 76 64 80 66 / - - 10 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE BUT HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. NEXT AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN
A THICK AREA OF CIRRUS EXISTS JUST TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION.
BAND OF MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
EVENING...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE. OVERALL...WILL CALL IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY...MORE SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT DUE TO RELATIVELY MIXY BL WINDS AND
SNOW PACK OVER N-C WISCONSIN. DROPPED TEMPS OVER VILAS COUNTY WHERE
THE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 OVER VILAS TO
LOWER 30S LAKE SIDE.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS...BUT
WILL HAVE FILTERED SUN THROUGH MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT LEAST INTO MID-WEEK WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH.
FIRST SYSTEM THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SE HALF OF AREA ALONG
COLD FRONT.
AFTER BRIEF BREAK...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF EVENT...BUT COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
SYSTEM THURSDAY.
850 MB TEMPS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT BOTH SHOW
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF.
TEMP FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS TO
EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN SHOULD
SEE THE LAKE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH WHICH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
THEREAFTER...JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING. SEEMS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT AT THE RHI TAF...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MPC