Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/31/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
841 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SLIDE INTO THE
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COVER
MOST AREAS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. LIKEWISE SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING
IN THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 7500 FEET AT FIRST FALLING TO
5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE END MOST AREAS OF THE VALLEY
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN...OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THIS
WEEKEND AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. QUIET AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY. HRRR INDICATING
WIND GUSTS STAYING UP ABOVE 40 MPH THROUGH 4 TO 5 AM. HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE...MAINLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO IMPACT HIGHWAY 46 AND 41 THROUGH
THE COTTONWOOD CANYON. THESE WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN MID DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM WE/VE BEEN WATCHING FOR NEARLY A WEEK IS NOW AT
OUR DOORSTEP...PRIMED TO BRING US OUR FIRST NOTABLE WINTER WEATHER
OF THE SEASON. GIVEN THAT WE/VE GONE MONTHS WITHOUT A GOOD STORM
WE/RE HITTING THIS FIRST ONE A BIT HARDER ON OUR MESSAGING. THE
WEATHER REMAINS DRY AND MILD AND WITHIN 36 HOURS WILL BECOME
COLD...WET AND BLUSTERY.
IR SAT DEPICTS THE PRIMARY LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF JUNEAU ALASKA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AND ELONGATED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. A JET
STREAK/PV MAX IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEST AMOUNTS OF PWAT ARE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WAITING TO BE SCOOPED UP. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE ALL INDICATIVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING IN TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE/VE ALSO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF THUNDER...MAINLY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...DUE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE DYNAMIC COOLING.
TIMING IS OF COURSE A BIG CONCERN GIVEN TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE
THE ONE DAY OF THE YEAR WHEN MASS AMOUNTS OF CHILDREN WILL BE OUT
AND ABOUT. LEANING ON THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND SREF
PLUMES...APPEARS THE RAIN/FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST /NEAR
LOS BANOS/ AROUND 5 PM...MOVING TOWARD FRESNO AROUND 8 PM...THEN
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT 11 PM. OF COURSE THOSE TIMES ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BUT THEY ARE THE CURRENT THINKING.
THE CHANGE WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE SIERRA WHERE WE/RE
EXPECTING OVER A FOOT OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...GIVEN IT IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON...WE OPTED FOR A
WINTER STORM WARNING KINGS CANYON NORTH AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON SNOW LEVELS...STARTING NEAR 7500
FEET FRIDAY THEN FALLING TO 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL SEE RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAYBE A FEW
IN THE VALLEY. THE TRAILING AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK APPRECIABLY
UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME SO MAY JUST END UP WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
FAIR WEATHER CU AND THE TYPICAL HEAVY BANK OF STRATOCU ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AROUND BAKERSFIELD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SATURDAY-MONDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...15 TO 30
DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD 60S IN THE VALLEY. IT/LL BE THE COOLEST
DAY SINCE LATE APRIL.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY. WITH
WET GROUND...STABLE CONDITIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...WARMING AND DRYING WILL
ENSUE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN OVER MERCED COUNTY AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 10-30 91:1887 57:1975 60:1983 27:1972
KFAT 10-31 90:1949 57:1974 61:2008 32:1972
KFAT 11-01 88:1966 58:1935 61:2008 33:1971
KBFL 10-30 92:1939 59:1996 66:1899 29:1971
KBFL 10-31 92:1949 55:1923 65:2008 33:1935
KBFL 11-01 90:1966 58:2003 64:2008 30:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY CAZ089-091.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.
ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.
ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.
TONIGHT...
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.
HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.
CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.
IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED
DETAILS...
FRIDAY...
AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION. THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET. THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD. IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.
PTYPE AND TIMING...
A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES. INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.
TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...
***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS***
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN. IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT
MARINE EVENT.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT HIGH LATE SAT INTO SUN...BUT THERE
IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE CONCERN
IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY. IF WE END UP
REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION. SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL UNDER DEVELOPMENT ***
BIG PICTURE...
29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.
THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.
TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED BENEATH THE THIN
VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS ITS TRANSPARENCY HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO WARM RESULTING IN THE WARM-FRONT TO PUSH N INTO NH
AND ME...AIDED BY SW-FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. NOTHING SEVERE.
ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.
ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP APPEARS SPOT-ON WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL...AND HENCE THE
HEADACHES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.
THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.
TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MID-EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR REFINEMENTS TO POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...HAVE BUMPED QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA...
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS STILL
REMAIN A FEW HOURS AWAY FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH
STRENGTHENING GUSTS MORE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
SPREADS IN...AND HAVE LARGELY BASED HOURLY POP TRENDS ALONG THESE
TRENDS.
ALL HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO CHANGES
IN EXPECTATIONS OF THE VERY GUSTY WINDS...AND THE RESULTING LARGE
WAVES AND LAKESHORE FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. BECOMING A
BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND EVEN PORTIONS
OF THE IL LAKE SHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. REALLY IMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WITH COLD AIR OVER WARM LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE. ALLOWING FOR LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S F...LAKE-850 HPA DELTA T APPROACHES 20
DEG C DURING THE PERIOD AND YIELDS LAKE-INDUCED FORECAST CAPES UP TO
1200 J/KG AND INVERSION LEVELS ABOVE 15 KFT. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR...AND ITEM OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY...IS THE WARMTH OF
THE WATER/SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS SUPPLIED BY THE LONG FETCH OVER
WARM WATERS. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDER...THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY MAY WELL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
WARM LOW LEVELS AND PRODUCE ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE INCREASED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT TO THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...AND HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ADVISORY WSW TEXT. IF COLUMN IS ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR
LONG DURATION +SN/TSSN...COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES MORE IN SOME SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THOUGH INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT NORTHEAST...EXPECT LESS INTENSE RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS
TO IMPINGE UPON PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE AND STATELINE AREAS AS
WELL.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 332 PM CDT...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND
THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
WE ARE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE...PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN INDIANA...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AND OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...CURRENT CENTERED ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTHWEST...A RATHER
STOUT 1036 MB HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG NORTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEAD TO A QUICK RAMP UP OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
MEAN MIXING LAYER WIND SPEEDS COULD TOP 40 KT ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE LAKE...MEANING WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY REACH THIS MAGNITUDE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS
DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COULD EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND
50 KT WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON HALLOWEEN...THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
AS LARGE BATTERING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT APPEAR LIKELY...AND AS
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...LAKE LEVELS ARE ABOUT 2 FT
HIGHER THAN PAST YEARS...WHICH COULD MAKE THE IMPACTS OF THESE WAVES
HIGHER THEN SIMILAR WAVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STRONG WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF MY CWA. THIS
INCLUDES AREAS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARVARD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANKAKEE AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA...AS WELL AS
PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND ALSO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING...AND BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRYING OUT
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND STAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE OF A TRUE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. A COLD AIRMASS FEATURING -7 DEGREE C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A 53F (11.7C)
DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURE AT THE SOUTH BUOY. THEREFORE...DELTA T`S
SHOULD END UP VERY FAVORABLE AROUND 19 DEGREES C. IN ADDITION...DEEP
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
LIKELY TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 16,000 FT AGL. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES
LIKELY TO BE MORE THAN DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH THE -10 TO -20 LAYER TO
RESULT IN GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND COULD BEGIN TO SET UP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL GET THIS LAKE EFFECT
BANDING. SOME HAVE HINTED IN A FARTHER WEST BAND...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT MORE OF THE CHICAGO AREA. HOWEVER...I THINK AT THIS POINT
AREAS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE MORE FAVORED...WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY DUE NORTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTING UP OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT PORTER AND LAKE INDIANA WILL BE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS...IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT THIS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD BE
DRIVEN WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
MUCH OF JASPER AND PORTER COUNTIES AS WELL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH...AS
SOME WARMER AIR MOVING OFF THE LAKE SHOULD MAKE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVIER PRECIP RATES...IT IS VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT ENHANCED DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN A COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WOULD HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...THOUGH EVEN AREAS ALONG THE LAKE COULD CHANGE
OVER/MIX WITH SNOW. OVERALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (POSSIBLY A FEW
INCHES IN SOME AREAS) ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
4 NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES. IF...HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW DOES NOT PAN OUT AS CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS...WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD
THEN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THEREFORE...IN SPITE OF THE
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN CHANGE OVERS TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL...WE FEEL AT THIS POINT...TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION...AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY SNOW
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
TO GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CRASH IN A HURRY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THEREFORE...ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT
GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT AND COME TO AN
END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S AT BEST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
* SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING.
* STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.
* VERY STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 40 KT FRIDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN U.P. WILL MOVE TO LAKE HURON BY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING WESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS SLOWLY INCREASING. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MOSTLY LIKELY RIGHT OVER THE TERMINALS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY RAIN THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AND PERHAPS ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS
LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VICINITY MENTION.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR INTO THE REGION. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH MID/LATE
MORNING...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BY THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW BUT MAINTAINED SNOW SHOWERS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFICS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE LOW...
INCLUDING DURATION AND INTENSITY. AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES
AND TRENDS EMERGE ON RADAR...A SHORT DURATION TEMPO FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING AND LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR POSSIBLE. ONCE
PRECIP ENDS IN THE MORNING...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO EITHER HIGH MVFR
OR LOW VFR.
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE EARLY MORNING THRU THE LATE
MORNING AND TURN NORTHERLY. PREVAILING SPEEDS IN THE MID 20 KT
RANGE LOOK ON TRACK WITH PREVAILING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30KT
RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
AS FOR GYY AND LAKE EFFECT...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...AFFECTING NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET INTENSE WITH THUNDER LIKELY.
IF THIS INTENSE PRECIP IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO COOL THE LOWER
LAYERS...THE PRECIP MAY SWITCH OVER TO ALL OR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THIS MAY PERSIST IS LOW AND MAINTAINED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT GYY WITH A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS/CIGS IN THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SPECIFICS ARE DIFFICULT FROM THIS DISTANCE
AND CHANGES TO THE GYY FORECAST SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION MOVING
BACK WEST TOWARD ORD/MDW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS TREND IS ALSO LOW. HOWEVER...
THE BAND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MDW TO ADD MENTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THIS FORECAST. IF PRECIP IS SNOW AND DOES MAKE IT
TO ORD/MDW...IFR CIGS/VIS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING...LOW FOR DURATION/
INTENSITY.
* LOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD...MEDIUM
FOR TIMING/CHANGES. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE
AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A FAVORABLE AND ANOMALOUS SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER AIDED
BY THE WARM WATERS/EXTREME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE REGULAR HIGHER END
STORM FORCE GUSTS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN THE LAKE RAPIDLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SYNC WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A RAMP UP IN NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF STORM FORCE TO 50 AND POSSIBLY EVEN 55 KT
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...AND AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
THE WAVE MAXIMUM OF OVER 20 FOOTERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EVOLVE SOUTHWARD
REACHING THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WAVES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LAKE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ014...7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022...7
AM
FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ033...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ019...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...
LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...1 AM FRIDAY TO 10
PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
FRIDAY
TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
837 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Initial shortwave pushing across west central Illinois has brought
about some scattered showers this evening over most of our area.
A second and more potent upper wave seen on the water vapor loop
streaming south over the upper Great Lakes and that feature will
deepen in over the lower lakes tomorrow morning ushering much
colder air and strong northerly winds to the region. First band
of rain will shift into eastern and southeast Illinois this
evening with a second band of rain forecast to shift southeast
into our area along the quick moving cold front after midnight. 3
hourly pressure rises of 4 to 6 mb streaking southeast along the
cold front to our northwest and as the upper feature deepens in
over the lower lakes region, we should see some rather significant
pres rises develop just to our north and west which should bring
in the strong winds around sunrise across the north and during the
morning to the south.
Will continue to hold on to the POPs over most of the area until
that second wave tracks thru the area by Friday morning, with rain
chances then confined to far east and southeast Illinois. RAP and
HRRR indicating the potential for gusts of 40 to 45 mph tomorrow
morning into the afternoon hours across most of the area coupled
with steady or slowly falling temperatures. Wind chill readings
for the trick or treaters will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
tomorrow evening!
Have already sent out an updated ZFP to address the more widespread
nature of the precip earlier in the evening and will have another
update out by 900 pm to adjust the late evening wording.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Two waves impacting the short term. The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region. Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature. Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip. Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF. As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.
Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.
Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Low VFR cigs expected thru the evening hours and then will have to
watch for the possibility for at least a brief period of MVFR cigs
with a cold frontal passage after 07z tonight with the main concern
after that being strong northerly winds on Friday. First batch of
rain tracking south-southeast across the area early this evening
and will continue with tempo groups over mainly the eastern TAF
sites for a few hours early this evening. We will probably see a
brief break in any precip chances later this evening before a much
stronger wave shifts south into the lower Great Lakes bringing
another threat for scattered showers and a wind shift into the
north at all TAF sites in the 07z-10z time frame. This is the time
frame where we may see a brief period of MVFR cigs but for now,
will only include a scattered group around 2500 feet. Once the
front shifts south of our area, surface winds will increase to
between 20 and 30 kts by mid morning with gusts to around 35 kts
at times.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER,
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING ACROSS NRN
IL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AROUND THE SWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AS RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWED A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO FORM...DECOUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...AND PER UPSTREAM OBS.
EXPECT THAT THE WEAKER WSWLY WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WNWLY AND GUST
UP TO ARND 25KT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY
COVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE
RIVERS...PER LATEST MODEL RH GUIDANCE AND TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLOUD DECK...SO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS DECREASING WINDS
WITH THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
WINDS SHOULD BECM NEAR CALM. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AS WELL. EVEN THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA WILL GET
QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
KREIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE WEEK BEGAN ON A VERY MILD NOTE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S MON...THE WEEK CLOSES OUT AS NEARLY THE INVERSE OF HOW
IT BEGAN. BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THUR...WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE POISED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THUR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAT A WEAK SFC FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
NORTHEAST KS...WITH WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOME LGT
PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SFC LOW THEN DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THUR NGT/EARLY
FRI...AS A POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS
QUICKLY FRI MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRI. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH WILL BE MUCH COLDER AIR...AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW TO MID 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLUG OF
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 DEG C MIDDAY FRI/EARLY
AFTN...WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE UPR
30S/LOW 40S FRI. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW
40S...WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30-33 DEGREES FRI
AFTN. PRECIP AT THIS TIME SHUD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM FRI...HOWEVER
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRI LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS AND REDUCED RESONANCE TIME...THE ONSET WILL LIKELY START
CELLULAR. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE FRI NGT A FEW BANDS MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IND. TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE
MID/UPR 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE SKIES SHUD
ERODE EARLIER FRI NGT. FURTHER EAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WEEKEND WILL START UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH A DEEP 500MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO GREENLAND. BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SFC RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT WILL SHIFT EAST SUN. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY TROUGH CAN PUSH INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
LATE SUN/EARLY MON...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING MON.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NONE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH
CANADA...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND A BKN-OVC STRATOCU
DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR
AND INCREASED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTS TO ARND 25KT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. DURG THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
HIGH WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LGT/VRBL UNDER CLEAR SKIES... WHICH SHOULD THEN BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/SHSN MIX
LATE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY....VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CDT
DEEPENING LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT/THUR MORNING. THEN
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THUR AND
QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...BEFORE DEEPENING TO A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THUR NGT/EARLY FRI.
THEN THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FRI WITH A VERY
POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGION POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/HIGH
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENERATING GALES TO 40KT AND POSSIBLY
45KT AROUND 9Z FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...AND LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRI OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH GALES
40-45KTS DEVELOPING FRI...SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST JUMP TO A GALE
WARNING RATHER THAN A WATCH. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW MIDDAY FRI
WHERE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY DURATION OF STORM FORCE WINDS. WITH THE NORTH
GALES...AND FOR A DECENT DURATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WAVES COULD
BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NEED FOR BEACH HAZARDS ALONG
THE INDIANA SHORELINE FRI AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRI NGT AND
STEADILY DIMINISH THE WINDS. WINDS/WAVES WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1052 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A mostly sunny morning for most of Central Illinois is slowly
giving way to developing clouds building in from the north. Cool
conditions behind the front as high pressure builds back into the
region. Temps a little slow to rise over the area and clouds north
of I-74 are going to complicate that a bit more. Have bumped the
highs down a degree or so and adjusted the hourly temps... but a
major update is not anticipated in this quiet weather pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.
Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.
Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area
of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this
morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite
trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA
and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs
will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight.
Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the
clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore,
will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF
sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for
broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these
three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around
10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
911 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER,
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING ACROSS NRN
IL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AROUND THE SWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AS RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWED A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO FORM...DECOUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...AND PER UPSTREAM OBS.
EXPECT THAT THE WEAKER WSWLY WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WNWLY AND GUST
UP TO ARND 25KT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY
COVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE
RIVERS...PER LATEST MODEL RH GUIDANCE AND TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLOUD DECK...SO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS DECREASING WINDS
WITH THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
WINDS SHOULD BECM NEAR CALM. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AS WELL. EVEN THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA WILL GET
QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
KREIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE WEEK BEGAN ON A VERY MILD NOTE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S MON...THE WEEK CLOSES OUT AS NEARLY THE INVERSE OF HOW
IT BEGAN. BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THUR...WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE POISED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THUR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAT A WEAK SFC FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
NORTHEAST KS...WITH WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOME LGT
PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SFC LOW THEN DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THUR NGT/EARLY
FRI...AS A POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS
QUICKLY FRI MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRI. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH WILL BE MUCH COLDER AIR...AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW TO MID 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLUG OF
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 DEG C MIDDAY FRI/EARLY
AFTN...WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE UPR
30S/LOW 40S FRI. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW
40S...WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30-33 DEGREES FRI
AFTN. PRECIP AT THIS TIME SHUD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM FRI...HOWEVER
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRI LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS AND REDUCED RESONANCE TIME...THE ONSET WILL LIKELY START
CELLULAR. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE FRI NGT A FEW BANDS MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IND. TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE
MID/UPR 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE SKIES SHUD
ERODE EARLIER FRI NGT. FURTHER EAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WEEKEND WILL START UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH A DEEP 500MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO GREENLAND. BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SFC RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT WILL SHIFT EAST SUN. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY TROUGH CAN PUSH INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
LATE SUN/EARLY MON...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING MON.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NONE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH
CANADA...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND A BKN-OVC STRATOCU
DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR
AND INCREASED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTS TO ARND 25KT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. DURG THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
HIGH WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LGT/VRBL UNDER CLEAR SKIES... WHICH SHOULD THEN BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/SHSN MIX
LATE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY....VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CDT
DEEPENING LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT/THUR MORNING. THEN
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THUR AND
QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...BEFORE DEEPENING TO A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THUR NGT/EARLY FRI.
THEN THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FRI WITH A VERY
POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGION POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/HIGH
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENERATING GALES TO 40KT AND POSSIBLY
45KT AROUND 9Z FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...AND LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRI OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH GALES
40-45KTS DEVELOPING FRI...SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST JUMP TO A GALE
WARNING RATHER THAN A WATCH. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW MIDDAY FRI
WHERE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY DURATION OF STORM FORCE WINDS. WITH THE NORTH
GALES...AND FOR A DECENT DURATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WAVES COULD
BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NEED FOR BEACH HAZARDS ALONG
THE INDIANA SHORELINE FRI AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRI NGT AND
STEADILY DIMINISH THE WINDS. WINDS/WAVES WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.
Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.
Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area
of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this
morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite
trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA
and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs
will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight.
Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the
clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore,
will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF
sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for
broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these
three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around
10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAD TO
INCREASE THE POPS SOUTH OF I80 AS SOME PRECIP WAS RECORDED AT IOWA
CITY. CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND SHOULD
BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSVERING THROUGH THE FLOW SPRINKLES MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I80 FOR
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AS A RESULT...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NW AREA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORTS THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT
THE WFO DVN WE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE SUN
WAS SHINING IN OUR WESTERN AND SW CWA...BUT MORE CLOUDS WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER AND VERY WINDY THROUGH HALLOWEEN.
TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THEN TO FOLLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. WE WILL
NEED TO TALK ABOUT COLD WIND CHILLS AS THEY DROP TO 10 TO 15 NW TO
THE LOWER 20S SE BY SUNRISE.
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...THIS DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
TIGHT GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. YOU WILL NEED TO REALLY BUNDLE UP
AS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN THE MORNING WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
WITH 100 PERCENT CERTAINTY...WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD IN OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH RESPECT TO PUBLIC IMPACT ON TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES...BUT WILL NOW ACTIVATE OUR LAST REMAINING COUNTIES THAT
ARE YET TO HAVE A FREEZE EVENT. OUR SOUTHERNMOST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL BE IN A FREEZE WARNING
FOR FRIDAY MID EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAPSIPINICON VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S. EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROCK RIVER
VALLEY SITES INCLUDING MOLINE TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WHILE WESTERN SITES ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
RIDGE SHIFT EAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 12 MPH EAST TO 18 MPH WEST...WITH GUST OF
20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN OTHER WORDS...SATURDAYS COLD SUNSHINE MAY
BE THE MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND DAY.
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK UP THROUGH THIS DEEP FLOW...AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVES INTO IOWA
MONDAY...THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE AN ACTIVE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE CANADIAN IS MOST PHASED WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LEAST PHASED AND MOST
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE...AND MAY BE THE BEST FIT FOR
NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CHANCE MONDAY
FOR NOW...AND ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
CONTINUED NOW INTO TUESDAY EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PHASING IS MORE
CERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE POPS WILL NARROW INTO A MORE TIGHT
WINDOW OF TIME...BUT FOR NOW ARE OVER 3 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN ZONAL
FLOW WITH SYSTEM MAINLY PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL LOWER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03-05Z/FRIDAY. A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2-3 KFT BUT THEN IMPROVE AFTER 09Z.
AN AREA OF -SHRA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SE IOWA MAY IMPACT
KBRL PRIOR TO 06Z. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
AND SKY COVER TRENDS. OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND MESOSCALE LAYER RH
PROGS SUPPORT THE CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND PERHAPS DROPPING SOUTH OF I-80 A BIT. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS AND TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH LOWEST TEMPS NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW/MID 30S...WITH READINGS AROUND 40
NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
EVENING UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HANGING ON LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND IS BEING MODELED WELL BY THE RAP LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS. THIS MODEL MAINTAINS THE EVENING TREND OF AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DAMPEN THE
PREVIOUS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT. IF THE OVERCAST DECK IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMBINING
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TO BRING A BRISK FALL DAY...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE NEAR 50 NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH. A 15 TO
25 MPH WIND IS MAKING IT FEEL SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE...THERE IS A DEFINITE DIURNAL CHARACTER
TO THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF IOWA...AND
WE ARE SEEING HOLES WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS AS WELL.
THIS DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER HEAD...AND THE ONE
ADVECTING TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BY
SUNSET. MODELS SWEEP THE MAIN STRATUS DECK TO TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT IN ANY CASE...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH...HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TO THE 20S...BUT NON THE LESS WE
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS OF THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 37 SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY DAY. WHILE
THE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE AS BRISK AS TODAY...A MORNING WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5 TO
10...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 NORTH TO MID
50S FAR SOUTH.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MAINLY A TRACE EVENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP.
FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION NOTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -9C IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF STRATUS
CLOUDS. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA ON NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE 40S MAKING FOR A COLD AND WINDY HALLOWEEN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR
TO NOVEMBER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME COLD
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI VALLEY MAY DROP TO AROUND
20. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE FULL
SUNSHINE BUT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST WITH
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARD TO TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
06Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT SKY COVER TRENDS WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR
DECK CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT KCID/KDBQ AND LIKELY KMLI. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND
10KT AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER BOTH
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. SKC BEFORE 16Z WED AND AFT 00Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW060
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MIDDAY...THEN WSW
5-10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.
This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.
Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay
tuned!
After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...
OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.
The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.
Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.
A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although there
could be some light fog in prone locations towards Thursday
morning. For the remainder of this afternoon, expect westerly winds
to turn more WNW and continue around 10 knots with gusts upwards of
15 knots at times. Clouds (around FL035) from the northwest will
attempt to push into KSDF and KLEX this evening, but will likely
struggle to do so as they mix out late this afternoon.
Some guidance is trying to hint at more fog development overnight at
KLEX and KBWG. However, drier air is quickly working in and even
guidance suggesting fog has morning dewpoint depression upwards of 3
degrees. Therefore, will just hint at fog development with a 6SM
group at KLEX and KBWG, but leave any restrictions out for now.
Otherwise, Thursday will just feature some increasing high clouds,
but winds will remain light with VFR conditions continuing.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.
This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.
Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay
tuned!
After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...
OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.
The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.
Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.
A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period. However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.
Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front. Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
750 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.
This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.
Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay
tuned!
After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...
OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.
The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.
Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.
A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period. However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.
Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front. Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE START OF THE DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH PATCHY FOG...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE FAIRLY DENSE. OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 1/2 MILE AND UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT COOLING IN THE
BOTTOM COOLING IN TH BOTTOM 50MB BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN THE INVERSION SOME AND THINKING IS THAT FOG DENSITY WILL NOT
GET ANY WORSE THAN CURRENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.
ONE LAST DAY OF WARM FALL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE
COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CWA. REALLY LIKED THE OUTPUT OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING IN TERMS
OF ITS INITIALIZATION AND FCST QPF WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH PWAT NEVER REACHING 1.5 INCHES
TODAY. SO HAVE DROPPED POPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT TODAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WHICH WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ISOLATED. SVR WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
.LONG TERM...
A SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL REALLY DIG THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS
THE SERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A A
REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT
AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES
THROUGH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MIDWEEK. EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN COLDER AND COLDER SO HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND AS WELL. FCST TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLDNESS OF THE AIR MASS...WITH THE MAV
PLAYING CATCH-UP. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS NIGHTTIME LOWS TO NEAR 40
DEGREES ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THOSE TWO NIGHTS AND HIGHS
SATURDAY 60 TO 65. VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
MODIFYING AIRMASS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP ALMOST
TO CLIMO NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES COULD BE COMING BACK MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REALLY SLACKING OFF
RIGHT NOW AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION CAA WILL
HELP INCREASE THE WINDS EARLY THU MORNING WITH SCS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR GETS HERE FRI AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS IT WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SCY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI AFTN AND PERSIST INTO SAT. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...BROAD RANGE OF ISSUES AND STATUSES THIS MORNING.
TERMINALS AROUND THE REGION RANGE FROM LIFR TO VFR STATUS. THIS
MORNING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS OFF AN ON BUT
OVERALL BNDRY LAYER WINDS SHOULD MAINLY JUST LEAD TO LOW CIGS. AFTER
SUNRISE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT WE MAY START TO SEE A FEW SHRA ANS TSRA DEVELOP. OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MENTION OF THEM OUT
OF MOST TAFS...EXCEPTIONS OUR NERN HALF (MCB/ASD/GPT). IN ADDITION
LOOKS FROM WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NW THEN N THIS AFTN BUT NOT
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. /CAB/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 50 73 48 / 30 10 10 10
BTR 80 53 75 49 / 30 10 10 10
ASD 81 55 75 45 / 30 10 10 10
MSY 81 61 75 55 / 20 20 10 10
GPT 80 56 75 48 / 30 20 10 10
PQL 81 53 74 43 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUSLY...
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.
ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
620 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE LIFTING
NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOR THE
MOST PART LIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10" DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF
PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. AREAS
OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE...WITH THE STRATUS DECK
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND AT FRENCHVILLE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...
&&
.CLIMATE...CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.
FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.
SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.
SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.
MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.
EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1007 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.
FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.
SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.
SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.
MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.
EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN. WINDS ARE
QUICKLY COMING UP W-E...AS COOLER AIR SWITCHED RAIN TO SNOW. VIS
ALREADY DOWN TO 3/4SM AT CMX WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS. EXPECT VIS TO
FLUCTUATE FROM 3/4 TO 3SM THROUGH 10Z...AFTER WHICH WE WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE SOME IMPROVEMENTS AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE W. VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL 3 SITES BY MID AFTERNOON AT
IWD AND CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO BUDGE TODAY AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A SFC RIDGE THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING
ACROSS WRN MN. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL MN IN THE UPPER 30S
TODAY...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY SCREAMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD IN
LAST NIGHT AS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
CERTAINLY DO NOT INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN A 40 POP TONIGHT. STILL THE BIG ISSUE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT
IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AS
SEEN IN THE 29.12 SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES
AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN MN
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT...BUT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES EAST AS
THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO IOWA.
WHAT THIS WAVE WILL DO IS SPREAD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6K
AND 10K FEET BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SRLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROPS TONIGHT TO BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MIX A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT CAN MAKE TO THE
GROUND NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED...WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER.
FOR TOMORROW...THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...AS THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MARKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZY NW WINDS AND CAA. THOUGH THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL...THE CAA COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
EVEN ALLOW THEM TO DROP A DEGREES OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN MN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
LONG RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE ON A COLD NOTE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN CWA
INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DROP OFF.
THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
CWA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF PARTIALLY SPLIT AND TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT ENOUGH COLD MAY
MAY WORK IN FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED/CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET
SNOW...MAINLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS
SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD
BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE
LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN
CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS
ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER
THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE.
BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND
OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE
SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU
MORNING.
KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE
TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE
EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR
OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING
STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE
WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS TODAY AS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/LATE OCTOBER
SUN ANGLE MAY HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTN. CAA WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...SO TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD OR FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE STARTING TO RISE BY
LATE MORNING. LOW TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HOLDING ON...AND TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S.
A FAST MOVING SHRTWV THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW. INITIALLY...DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME.
THIS INITIAL DRY AIR MASS MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
MAX WET BULB TEMPS /1 KM LAYER/ DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
EARLIER...THE MAIN TYPE COULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AS THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS AS THE SHRTWV
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WRF MODELS SIMULATED
PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH SOME MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN/WC WI DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS MPX CWA LATE
TONIGHT...INITIAL DRY MASS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMTS. A
GENERAL FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH
MOSTLY TRACE AMTS ACROSS MPX CWA. WILL CONTINUE 20/30/40% POPS AS
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE IN
THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE PROTOTYPICAL FALL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE BLUSTERY DAYS.
OVERALL...STILL A DRY PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THAT DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
RAIN.
THE PRECIP EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE RAPID
BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30-35KTS IN WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
THAT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND
-11C BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAST COLD
OUTBREAK OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS SAW 40S FOR HIGHS...THAT WAS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF ABOUT
-4C. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...WE ARE NOW APPROACHING
NOVEMBER AND HAVE LOST BETWEEN 60-90 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT SINCE
THAT EARLY OCTOBER COLD SNAP...NOT TO MENTION WE ALSO HAVE A LOWER
SUN ANGLE. A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE COLDEST
HALLOWEEN SINCE 2006 WHEN THERE WAS A HIGH OF 36 IN THE TWIN
CITIES...A HIGH OF 33 IN ST. CLOUD...AND 38 IN EAU CLAIRE. A
BLUSTERY NORTH FLOW WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S DURING
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN
COOL OVERALL. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MN/WI WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN
BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH BREAKS OFF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MODEL TIMING AND LOCATION ON THIS TROUGH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A 150-HR FORECAST. THIS TROUGH IS THE REASON FOR
THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK - DOESN`T APPEAR
TO BE A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS
SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD
BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE
LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN
CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS
ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER
THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE.
BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND
OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE
SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU
MORNING.
KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE
TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE
EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR
OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING
STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE
WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MAJOR DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 500 MB LOW HAS NOW TRANSLATED EAST OF
THE DLH CWA /CENTERED NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AS OF 00Z/..AND BENT-BACK
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL REGION OF
THIS CYCLONE IS STARTING TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IR
SATELLITE AND CANADIAN RADAR DATA IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MUCH OF
ONTARIO IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH..AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT/COOLING TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH
THIS PRECIP BAND AS IT AFFECTS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
53 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS RATHER CLOSELY THIS
EVENING..AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLUSHY
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN A FEW PLACES DURING THE MAX INTENSITY OF
PRECIP..WHCIH SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
ELSEWHERE FARTHER SOUTH..THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF LIGHT
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ACROSS THE
SW TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. KDLH CC/ZDR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMBIENT FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET AGL..AND IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY SMALL SCALE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP RATES IS
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN LOCAL DIABATIC COOLING UNDERNEATH SMALL
SCALE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO ALLOW A MIX OR ALL SNOW TO REACH THE
GROUND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOBE
OF RADAR ECHOES TRANSLATES ESEWD. HOWEVER..WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S/RELATIVELY WEAK SNOWFALL RATES..AND WARM AMBIENT
GROUND TEMPS..ABOUT ALL THE ACCUMULATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH IS SOME CRUSTING ON VEHICLES AND OTHER ELEVATED AND
EXPOSED SURFACES.
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
MORE SNOWY SOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTH..ALONG WITH HIGHER POPS AND
SIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE
SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW.
VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF
DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN
COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN
THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY
LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN
ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON
ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM
SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM
PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID
LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN
EDGE OF CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT
UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM
NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN
WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL
PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
PRECIPITATION IN THE DECAYING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NE MN HAS
RAPIDLY WEAKENED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING..BUT STILL
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PERIST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR..IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE
KBRD AREA AFTER 00Z THRUSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 35 44 27 38 / 10 20 20 0
INL 26 37 22 38 / 10 30 10 0
BRD 32 48 25 38 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 33 47 29 40 / 10 30 30 10
ASX 33 47 30 40 / 10 30 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEW POINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS TIME
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON
MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.
ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.
ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.
ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.
THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKE
LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS OWING TO A VEERING OF THE
SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUCH THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FAY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
ONLY AROUND 2-5 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LONGEST AT EASTERN
SITES. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE
EAST...AS THE SLOW APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOISTURE BACK UP
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL
VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 18-
21Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 21-23Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 23-02Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.
THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
951 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING.
LOWERED MINS ABOUT 3 DEGREES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL NOW OCCUPY ONLY THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
PATCHY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WESTWARD TO OCCUPY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UP SLOPE FLOW SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUES TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR KDIK BUT IFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ERODING THE STRATUS
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS KBIS WILL CLEAR BY 02Z AND KISN BY
03Z. KDIK WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOW LEVEL UP SLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL
KEEP IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR. CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR AT KDIK AFTER 15Z. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KTS KDIK-KISN AFTER 18Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.
TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON
AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED
WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
103 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SOLAR
BUT THE WESTERN EDGE CONTINUES TO ONLY INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE IT ARRIVING INTO VALLEY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED CLOUDY AREAS BY ANOTHER 3 DEG
TODAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND 39 OR 40 BY SUNDOWN.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS ALONG THE CLOUD FREE LINE EASTWARD
TO WHERE THE LINE IS LOCATED AT SUNDOWN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE
CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT...WILL
ADDRESS AT 4 PM UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK
INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN
A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM
KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL
DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL
READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT
EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE
INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON
AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED
WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
AS OF 1730 UTC...THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST CROSSING THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE ALONG AND IN TRAIL OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH GLASGOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BOUNDED BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 2.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US
HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06
UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT
WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US
HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06
UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR KJMS AROUND 17 UTC. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK
INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN
A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM
KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL
DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL
READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT
EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE
INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND
BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z
AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW
LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP
OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER
SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO
ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT
AT BJI. WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT STANLEY...BISMARCK...FORT
YATES. CLEARING IS NEAR KMOT AND LINTON. KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 01Z-03Z AND
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING MVFR CIGS BEHIND IT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
BACKEDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
BACKEDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND
BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z
AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW
LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP
OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER
SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO
ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT
AT BJI. WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WEST...IFR CONDITIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED. THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE
IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE
WESTERN AREA AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 18Z. THEN
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATER WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MANITOBA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. WINDS EAST OF THE
RIDGE WERE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS...AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WEST OF THE RIDGE.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST SAT PICS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR CROSBY/TIOGA...JUST
EAST OF GLEN ULLIN...TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. TEMPERATURES ARE THE
TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE TEENS IN SOME OF THE CLEAR
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THAT WHEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO RAISE TEMPS THERE OR AT
LEAST KEEP TEMPS FROM CONTINUING TO DROP.
KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES
CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE
CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE.
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.
AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.
NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...AM PLANNING TO DO ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. THE
LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON MOVE OUT OF JACKSON COUNTY AND
THEN BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE
CELLS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING BECAUSE WHILE THEY ARE NOT TALL, THEY
HAVE INTENSE CORES AND SUSTAINED ROTATION COUPLETS ALOFT. THERE IS
PROBABLY SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE CELLS AND BRIEF INTENSE
RAINFALL, BUT ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY PASS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL, BUT AT THE
MOMENT, IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN CELLS. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST IS OK, BUT WILL WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND THEN LIKELY UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/
UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.
SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT
AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL
MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.
SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL
MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING
THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND
DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY.
THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW
TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES
SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE
NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS
SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE
COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO
FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING
INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE
SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED
UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, SO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PATCHY
IFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD
BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT,
BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
CC/MD/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY
A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS
MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING
DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA
SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO
THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN
FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90
PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-
WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S
NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBGM TO KIPT AND KAOO AT 07Z.
THIS FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 7 KFT AGL...AND VSBYS OF 6SM OR
GREATER.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN
TODAY /FROM KJST NORTH TO KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A
COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE.
BRIEF...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TODAY
INVOF KMDT AND KLNS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY.
EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION UNDER A BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO CU
AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK.
OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.
FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY
A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS
MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING
DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA
SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO
THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN
FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90
PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-
WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S
NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TIMING OF THE SHOWERS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z.
MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD
FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW.
PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG
WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.
FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS
SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS
AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29
BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY
DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL...
AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE
NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT
THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A
WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE
VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT
WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY
TOO WARM.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST
STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN
AND HURON.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A
LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...
BUT LOWER CLOUDS FEATURING MVFR CEILINGS WILL CYCLE SOUTHWARD
AFTER 12Z BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
DISTURBANCE WITH MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z. LIFT FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALOFT. SINCE WILL BE OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS
SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS
AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29
BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY
DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL...
AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE
NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT
THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A
WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE
VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT
WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY
TOO WARM.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST
STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN
AND HURON.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A
LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 30/06Z. CEILINGS 3.5K TO 5K FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 29/15Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXIST AT THIS HOUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO CRAWL SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP
TO MVFR BY 07Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND BY 10Z AT DRT. CONDITIONS
WILL NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL 19Z TO 21Z ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS).
TREADWAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET REACHES IT/S DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
WAS JUST UPDATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY TO RE-TREND FROM THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN REMOVAL OF
POPS BEFORE 06Z AND A REDUCTION IN CLOUDCOVER THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (THE HRRR AND
SIMULATED SATELLITE WRF) SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AT
THE I-35 TERMINALS AND AROUND 10Z AT DRT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AUS BY 02Z...AND SAT/SSF/DRT BY 05Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AT 3 PM
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SHALLOW FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO SLIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...
AND 12Z GFS/NAM12/CMC ARE ALL INDICATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY. FOR NOW AM DISCOUNTING
ECMWF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS...AND
UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS
RETURNING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING
DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE
PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND
BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 64 78 59 82 / 10 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 63 78 56 81 / - 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 79 60 82 / - 20 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 59 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 65 76 64 84 / - 20 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 77 56 80 / 10 20 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 79 58 84 / - 20 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 78 58 82 / - 20 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 64 79 58 80 / - 20 20 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 65 79 62 82 / - 20 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 80 62 83 / - 20 20 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10KTS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF SCT/BKN CIGS
AROUND 5000FT FROM WACO NORTHEAST TO TYLER. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE SCT/BKN CIGS MENTIONED EARLIER...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HAVE
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POPS REMOVING AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO EMORY LINE. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN
ATHENS TO GROESBECK LINE.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS
AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT
RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN
EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN
ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF
MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5
WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 10 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 10 5 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 10 0 0 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5
DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5
TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 10 5 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 20 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
422 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER
LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A HEALTHY TEMP DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN CWA
AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD SOUTHEAST. STRONG NNW WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD AIR AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMPACT VORT AND REALLY THE HEART OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS DIVING SSE TOWARD
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WOULD FULLY
ANTICIPATE THESE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS AND KNOCK VSBY DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. AS THE VORT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST LOOK FOR THE NON-LAKE DRIVEN PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING
NORTHERN CWA AND LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE VORT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
RESULTANT STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO
-33C AND H7 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LAKE
BEHIND THIS VORT BECOME EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET GOING IN ERNEST BEHIND THIS
VORT AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TODAY APPROACH 20K FT...NEAR THE
-30C LEVEL...WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS (SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AND ICE) IN THE CLOUDS WITHIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE AND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT P-TYPE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX...AND ALL SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FARTHER INLAND STANDS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR TODAY IS HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OR A SINGLE
INTENSE BAND. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL TIME OF DAY AM CONCERNED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED/SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MULTIPLE
BANDS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE TIME OF STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. IF A MORE ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES
FORM...THE STRONG FLOW AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAKING IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. IF SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH THEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS WOULD
BECOME MORE OF A MOOT POINT WITH RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING
IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES IN SPOTS TODAY. THE WIND
WILL BE WHIPPING THE SNOW AROUND REGARDLESS SO UNDERNEATH ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY MISERABLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS/SIDEWALKS TODAY. LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY LOOK TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY WITH THE
PRECIP LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INLAND TO JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CLIP SE COOK AND EASTERN WILL WITH LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP TODAY WHICH ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THERE.
THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SEND THE
LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO EASTERN COOK/EASTERN WILL/WESTERN LAKE IN (AND
EVEN POINTS SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCED AREAS
DROPPING WHICH WOULD BOTH TEND TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF A DOMINANT LAKE
EFFECT BAND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN 23Z AND ABOUT
04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE INSTABILITY (WHILE LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY) WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 10K FT AND LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES >20C. DOES APPEARS A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND
EASTERN WILL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OPTED NOT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
AND INSTEAD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS. BY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY END SATURDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGHER POPS LATER IN TIME
AS LAKE EFFECT RARELY WINDS DOWN AS QUICKLY AS MODEL PROGGED
PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT WILL. WORTH NOTING THAT BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH SAT MORNING THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPS DROP BELOW -12C
MEANING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS CONTAINING ICE NUCLEI FOR SNOW WILL
BE LOW...SO DESPITE LOWER TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
TRANSITIONED P-TYPE BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.
FINALLY...HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AS IS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOCATIONS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH A GOOD BET NOTHING WOULD BE GAINED FROM MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE LAKE LOOKS
LIKELY TO VERIFY WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 58 MPH
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TODAY AND REALLY NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HAVING A WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE...SO AM GOING TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE
AREAS.
HEADLINES ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS AND HEADACHE. WINTER WX ADVISORY
COVERS WIND AND SNOW...BUT IN ORDER TO GO WITH WARNING FOR WIND
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN INDIANA WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH REALLY DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT. AFTER
MUCH HEMMING AND HAWING AND INTERNAL COORDINATION HAVE OPTED TO
CHANGE THE WINTER WX ADV TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK...PORTER...AND LAKE IN. MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY BY EARLY EVENING FOR
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH...MUCH QUIETER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. SLOW
MOVING FRONT COULD BRING A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK. BRIEF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE.
* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT. NOT CLEAR ON FREQUENCY OF 40 KT GUSTS.
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MDW FROM EARLY EVENING
ONWARD.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWEST WITH GUST FREQUENCY/INTENSITY PICKING
UP. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH ONE UPPER WAVE. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND GENERATING BANDS OF SNOW AS COLDER
AIR SPILLS IN. HAVE HIT SNOW SHOWER MENTION A LITTLE HARDER FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z OR SO. BRIEF IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW SITES HAVING REPORTED ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO 3 SM
UPSTREAM. SUSPECT THAT MANY SITES HAVE BEEN TO 2-3SM OR LOWER BUT
DURATION WAS TOO BRIEF TO MAKE IT INTO THE TRANSMITTED OB. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS BUT VSBY COULD
BE BRIEFLY REDUCED LOWER THAN WHAT THE TAFS CURRENTLY SHOW. GUST
MAGNITUDE/FREQUENCY REMAIN A CHALLENGE ESPECIALLY AT ORD/MDW GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT PEAK GUSTS.
FROM 06Z...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
HURON TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TRAILING IT. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWEST
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT 06Z AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE FIRST NOW BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS. THE NEXT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT BRINGING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS WITH A BETTER DEFINED WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AREAS
OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ARE SEEING IFR SNOW THIS HOUR BUT THESE
HEAVIER BURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVIER BURST OF NON-ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT ORD/MDW/GYY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL VSBY
RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
WINDS FURTHER INCREASE BEHIND THIS SNOW PRODUCING WAVE WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FREQUENT THAT 40 KT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL. AM THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO SEPARATE WINDOWS WHERE 40 KT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY...ONE BEING MID/LATE MORNING BEHIND THE SNOW PRODUCING WAVE
AND THE OTHER BEING MID AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SCATTER. WITH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN 40 KT FREQUENCY ON THE LOW
SIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS DURATION FOR NOW BUT WILL ATTEMPT
TO REFINE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. GYY LOOKS TO BE
IN LINE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF ALL SNOW
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
CONDITIONS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE. MAY NEED TO
INDICATE SUB 1SM VSBY IN MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. GYY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE AND 45+ KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT MAY BEGIN
TO TRANSITION WESTWARD INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT SO MDW AND
POSSIBLY ORD COULD BE IN LINE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT MDW THIS EVENING BUT LEAVE
ORD DRY FOR NOW.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF BRIEF IFR VSBY
WILL OCCUR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND IN GUSTS
REACHING 35-37 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SOME 40 KT GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENCY AND BEST TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
AT ORD...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT MDW.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
A MAJOR WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IS
THE KEY TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MID MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD DOWN THE LAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND 50 KT FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION HOLDING AT GALES...THOUGH A FEW
50 KT GUSTS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME 55 KT GUSTS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND STRONG
MIXING OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 20 FEET BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 18-23 FT PREVAILING WAVES IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING AND TREND A BIT
NORTHEASTERLY. SHOULD SEE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY SO WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
EXISTING GALE AND STORM WARNINGS AS-IS.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY PUSH 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN LET UP NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATER TUESDAY AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ014...10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033...8 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...8 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.
Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.
Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.
Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.
More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR cigs in the
08z-12z time frame as a strong cold front tracks across the area.
Once the front shifts thru the area, strong northerly winds are
expected thru much of the day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to
30 kts with a few gusts around 35 kts at times. With the fropa, we
may see some scattered rain showers with the cigs lowering to
MVFR and a low probability for a brief period of IFR cigs with
any bands of rain that persist. Satellite data indicating cigs
around 2500 to 3500 feet north of the cold front over parts of
northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. Latest HRRR forecast indicates
the stratocumulus should begin to decrease in coverage and affect
mainly areas east of I55 by afternoon as subsidence develops in the
wake of the upper level shortwave. Surface winds will gradually
diminish, especially the gusts, towards evening with sustained winds
of 10 kts or less after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
113 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
921 PM
MID-EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR REFINEMENTS TO POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...HAVE BUMPED QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA...
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS STILL
REMAIN A FEW HOURS AWAY FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH
STRENGTHENING GUSTS MORE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
SPREADS IN...AND HAVE LARGELY BASED HOURLY POP TRENDS ALONG THESE
TRENDS.
ALL HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO CHANGES
IN EXPECTATIONS OF THE VERY GUSTY WINDS...AND THE RESULTING LARGE
WAVES AND LAKESHORE FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. BECOMING A
BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND EVEN PORTIONS
OF THE IL LAKE SHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. REALLY IMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WITH COLD AIR OVER WARM LAKE WATERS AND STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE. ALLOWING FOR LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S F...LAKE-850 HPA DELTA T APPROACHES 20
DEG C DURING THE PERIOD AND YIELDS LAKE-INDUCED FORECAST CAPES UP TO
1200 J/KG AND INVERSION LEVELS ABOVE 15 KFT. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR...AND ITEM OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY...IS THE WARMTH OF
THE WATER/SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS SUPPLIED BY THE LONG FETCH OVER
WARM WATERS. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDER...THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY MAY WELL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
WARM LOW LEVELS AND PRODUCE ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE INCREASED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT TO THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...AND HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ADVISORY WSW TEXT. IF COLUMN IS ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR
LONG DURATION +SN/TSSN...COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES MORE IN SOME SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THOUGH INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT NORTHEAST...EXPECT LESS INTENSE RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS
TO IMPINGE UPON PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE AND STATELINE AREAS AS
WELL.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
332 PM CDT...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND
THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
WE ARE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE...PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN INDIANA...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AND OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...CURRENT CENTERED ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTHWEST...A RATHER
STOUT 1036 MB HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG NORTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEAD TO A QUICK RAMP UP OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
MEAN MIXING LAYER WIND SPEEDS COULD TOP 40 KT ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE LAKE...MEANING WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY REACH THIS MAGNITUDE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS
DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COULD EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND
50 KT WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON HALLOWEEN...THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
AS LARGE BATTERING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT APPEAR LIKELY...AND AS
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...LAKE LEVELS ARE ABOUT 2 FT
HIGHER THAN PAST YEARS...WHICH COULD MAKE THE IMPACTS OF THESE WAVES
HIGHER THEN SIMILAR WAVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STRONG WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF MY CWA. THIS
INCLUDES AREAS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARVARD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANKAKEE AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA...AS WELL AS
PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND ALSO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 10
PM THIS EVENING...AND BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS INITIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DRYING OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND STAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE OF A TRUE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. A COLD AIRMASS FEATURING -7 DEGREE C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A 53F (11.7C)
DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURE AT THE SOUTH BUOY. THEREFORE...DELTA T`S
SHOULD END UP VERY FAVORABLE AROUND 19 DEGREES C. IN ADDITION...DEEP
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
LIKELY TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 16,000 FT AGL. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES LIKELY TO BE MORE THAN DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH THE -10 TO
-20 LAYER TO RESULT IN GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND COULD BEGIN TO SET UP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
COOK COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL GET THIS LAKE EFFECT
BANDING. SOME HAVE HINTED IN A FARTHER WEST BAND...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT MORE OF THE CHICAGO AREA. HOWEVER...I THINK AT THIS POINT
AREAS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE MORE FAVORED...WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY DUE NORTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTING UP OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT PORTER AND LAKE INDIANA WILL BE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS...IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT THIS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD BE
DRIVEN WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
MUCH OF JASPER AND PORTER COUNTIES AS WELL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH...AS
SOME WARMER AIR MOVING OFF THE LAKE SHOULD MAKE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVIER PRECIP RATES...IT IS VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT ENHANCED DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN A COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WOULD HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...THOUGH EVEN AREAS ALONG THE LAKE COULD CHANGE
OVER/MIX WITH SNOW. OVERALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (POSSIBLY A FEW
INCHES IN SOME AREAS) ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
4 NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES. IF...HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW DOES NOT PAN OUT AS CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS...WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD
THEN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THEREFORE...IN SPITE OF THE
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN CHANGE OVERS TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL...WE FEEL AT THIS POINT...TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION...AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY SNOW
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
TO GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CRASH IN A HURRY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THEREFORE...ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT
GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT AND COME TO AN
END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S AT BEST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
* FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK.
* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT. NOT CLEAR ON FREQUENCY OF 40 KT GUSTS.
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MDW EARLY EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
HURON TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TRAILING IT. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWEST
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT 06Z AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE FIRST NOW BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS. THE NEXT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT BRINGING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS WITH A BETTER DEFINED WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AREAS
OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ARE SEEING IFR SNOW THIS HOUR BUT THESE
HEAVIER BURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVIER BURST OF NON-ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT ORD/MDW/GYY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL VSBY
RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
WINDS FURTHER INCREASE BEHIND THIS SNOW PRODUCING WAVE WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FREQUENT THAT 40 KT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL. AM THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO SEPARATE WINDOWS WHERE 40 KT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY...ONE BEING MID/LATE MORNING BEHIND THE SNOW PRODUCING WAVE
AND THE OTHER BEING MID AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SCATTER. WITH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN 40 KT FREQUENCY ON THE LOW
SIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS DURATION FOR NOW BUT WILL ATTEMPT
TO REFINE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. GYY LOOKS TO BE
IN LINE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF ALL SNOW
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
CONDITIONS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE. MAY NEED TO
INDICATE SUB 1SM VSBY IN MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. GYY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE AND 45+ KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT MAY BEGIN
TO TRANSITION WESTWARD INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT SO MDW AND
POSSIBLY ORD COULD BE IN LINE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT MDW THIS EVENING BUT LEAVE
ORD DRY FOR NOW.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION/INTENSITY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND IN GUSTS
REACHING 35-37 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SOME 40 KT GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENCY AND BEST TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE
AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A FAVORABLE AND ANOMALOUS SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER AIDED
BY THE WARM WATERS/EXTREME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE REGULAR HIGHER END
STORM FORCE GUSTS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN THE LAKE RAPIDLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SYNC WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A RAMP UP IN NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF STORM FORCE TO 50 AND POSSIBLY EVEN 55 KT
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...AND AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
THE WAVE MAXIMUM OF OVER 20 FOOTERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EVOLVE SOUTHWARD
REACHING THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WAVES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LAKE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ014...7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM
FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ033...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ019...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY
TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Initial shortwave pushing across west central Illinois has brought
about some scattered showers this evening over most of our area.
A second and more potent upper wave seen on the water vapor loop
streaming south over the upper Great Lakes and that feature will
deepen in over the lower lakes tomorrow morning ushering much
colder air and strong northerly winds to the region. First band
of rain will shift into eastern and southeast Illinois this
evening with a second band of rain forecast to shift southeast
into our area along the quick moving cold front after midnight. 3
hourly pressure rises of 4 to 6 mb streaking southeast along the
cold front to our northwest and as the upper feature deepens in
over the lower lakes region, we should see some rather significant
pres rises develop just to our north and west which should bring
in the strong winds around sunrise across the north and during the
morning to the south.
Will continue to hold on to the POPs over most of the area until
that second wave tracks thru the area by Friday morning, with rain
chances then confined to far east and southeast Illinois. RAP and
HRRR indicating the potential for gusts of 40 to 45 mph tomorrow
morning into the afternoon hours across most of the area coupled
with steady or slowly falling temperatures. Wind chill readings
for the trick or treaters will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
tomorrow evening!
Have already sent out an updated ZFP to address the more widespread
nature of the precip earlier in the evening and will have another
update out by 900 pm to adjust the late evening wording.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Two waves impacting the short term. The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region. Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature. Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip. Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF. As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.
Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.
Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR cigs in the
08z-12z time frame as a strong cold front tracks across the area.
Once the front shifts thru the area, strong northerly winds are
expected thru much of the day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to
30 kts with a few gusts around 35 kts at times. With the fropa, we
may see some scattered rain showers with the cigs lowering to
MVFR and a low probability for a brief period of IFR cigs with
any bands of rain that persist. Satellite data indicating cigs
around 2500 to 3500 feet north of the cold front over parts of
northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. Latest HRRR forecast indicates
the stratocumulus should begin to decrease in coverage and affect
mainly areas east of I55 by afternoon as subsidence develops in the
wake of the upper level shortwave. Surface winds will gradually
diminish, especially the gusts, towards evening with sustained winds
of 10 kts or less after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAD TO
INCREASE THE POPS SOUTH OF I80 AS SOME PRECIP WAS RECORDED AT IOWA
CITY. CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND SHOULD
BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW SPRINKLES MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I80 FOR
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AS A RESULT...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NW AREA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORTS THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT
THE WFO DVN WE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE SUN
WAS SHINING IN OUR WESTERN AND SW CWA...BUT MORE CLOUDS WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER AND VERY WINDY THROUGH HALLOWEEN.
TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THEN TO FOLLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. WE WILL
NEED TO TALK ABOUT COLD WIND CHILLS AS THEY DROP TO 10 TO 15 NW TO
THE LOWER 20S SE BY SUNRISE.
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...THIS DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
TIGHT GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. YOU WILL NEED TO REALLY BUNDLE UP
AS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN THE MORNING WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
WITH 100 PERCENT CERTAINTY...WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD IN OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH RESPECT TO PUBLIC IMPACT ON TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES...BUT WILL NOW ACTIVATE OUR LAST REMAINING COUNTIES THAT
ARE YET TO HAVE A FREEZE EVENT. OUR SOUTHERNMOST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL BE IN A FREEZE WARNING
FOR FRIDAY MID EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAPSIPINICON VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S. EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROCK RIVER
VALLEY SITES INCLUDING MOLINE TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WHILE WESTERN SITES ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
RIDGE SHIFT EAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 12 MPH EAST TO 18 MPH WEST...WITH GUST OF
20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN OTHER WORDS...SATURDAYS COLD SUNSHINE MAY
BE THE MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND DAY.
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK UP THROUGH THIS DEEP FLOW...AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVES INTO IOWA
MONDAY...THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE AN ACTIVE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE CANADIAN IS MOST PHASED WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LEAST PHASED AND MOST
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE...AND MAY BE THE BEST FIT FOR
NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CHANCE MONDAY
FOR NOW...AND ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
CONTINUED NOW INTO TUESDAY EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PHASING IS MORE
CERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE POPS WILL NARROW INTO A MORE TIGHT
WINDOW OF TIME...BUT FOR NOW ARE OVER 3 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN ZONAL
FLOW WITH SYSTEM MAINLY PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY NOW FOR TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT CID WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. AFTER THAT CONCERN TOMORROW IS WITH THE HIGH WINDS. WINDS
FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OR TWO ABOVE 30 KTS. CROSSWINDS
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT SITES WITHOUT A NORTH TO SOUTH RUNWAY
STRUCTURE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
309 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR WINNIPEG THIS MORNING
WITH AN EXTENSION RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. AN OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM KANSAS FROM EAST TO WEST WITH A 150 MILE WIDE BAND OF MVFR
STRATUS FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH NE KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS STRATUS MOVED THROUGH CONCORDIA BY 1 AM CDT. AHEAD (WEST) OF
THIS STRATUS NORTH WINDS WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH HOMOGENEOUS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S WERE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY AFTER 9 PM AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF GARDEN CITY TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE WAKEENEY, DODGE CITY AND
ASHLAND.
A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION,
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY, WHERE AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH LOCALLY. ONLY SMALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DIGHTON, SCOTT CITY
AND WAKEENEY. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL IN THE COOL SEASON SINCE
HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST IN KANSAS TYPICALLY REQUIRES SLOW
MOVING AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THESE WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(THERMAL GRADIENT) WILL HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK. LINGERING STRATUS LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT WITH SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BUFKIT INDICATING THE STRATUS DECK RATHER
THIN AND ZERO FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW IS
THERE...JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING.
LOWERED MINS ABOUT 3 DEGREES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL NOW OCCUPY ONLY THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
PATCHY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE
THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT KISN TO TREND SCATTERED BETWEEN NOW
AND 09Z...AND FOR KDIK 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED INLAND THIS EVENING. THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY LATE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REMAINING FRI
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE PAC
NW. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE LOW IS SLOWING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PIVOTING IT
FROM A NE-SW ORIENTATION TO A N-S ORIENTATION. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SPREAD ONTO THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS PUSHED SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMSU
DERIVED SATELLITE SHOWING 1 TO 1.2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN OREGON...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE WEAKENED AND LOST SOME DEFINITION AS IT PASSED OVER THE
COAST RANGE. THE STEADIER FRONTAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW
FOCUSED OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES...WHILE THERE IS A
BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOWING UP BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN COAST RANGE. ANOTHER INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WAS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...EXTENDING INTO LANE
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM RAP MODEL SHOWED A STRONG
BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
EXPLAIN THE THUNDER. TRACKING THE RAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THE CASCADES SOUTH OF MT HOOD...WITH THE THREAT ENDING AFTER 06Z.
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON
THE INSTABILITY APPARENT ON SATELLITE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE COLDER AIR
MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 4500
TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS
TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES INCLUDING SANTIAM AND
WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW
TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. PYLE/CULLEN
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT STALLED AND IS
PETERING OUT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE WITH MVFR TO VFR
CIGS. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE COAST...COULD SEE SOME MVFR VIS
DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MORE UNCERTAINTY INLAND
DUE TO SEEMINGLY FIZZLING FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AND IF MOISTURE
LINGERS...COULD SEE ANOTHER MORNING WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS
AROUND SLE AND EUG. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...WITH FRONT NOT MAKING A CLEAN SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINANT
BY ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. BOWEN
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO DECREASE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA BAR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WNW SWELL INCREASES SEAS TO AT LEAST NEAR SCA
CRITERIA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT SEAS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR SCA SO WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
REASSESS AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
OVERALL WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH
GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 AM
PDT FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
2 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Sfc analysis shows the cold front about midway thru the FA,
satellite imagery showing stratus trying to develop SE of KMAF.
Latest buffer soundings and HRRR keep this low cloud E and S of
KMAF, and develop MVFR cigs at KFST ~09-14Z, before scattering
out. Otherwise, sfc flow will veer to SE over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Not much change this evening, as VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail tonight. Toward daybreak, RH progs indicate
the potential for high end MVFR ceilings, mainly affecting KFST
and KPEQ, with slightly lesser confidence for KCNM and KINK. Have
maintained the going TEMPOS in the 08-13Z time frame for these
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail Friday, with winds
remaining around 10-15kt and gradually veering to the east through
the period. Some showers/thunderstorms are possible to the south
Friday morning, though the low chance precludes mention in the
current TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge axis extending from the 4 corners region up across
Montana will move east the next couple of days with mild wx for the
region. Behind this ridge an upper trough will move onto the West
Coast and bring increasing chances of rain to the area starting
late in the weekend. By midweek the next upper ridge begins to
build in from the west as dry wx returns.
A cold front was moving through the area as of early afternoon with
a gusty north wind behind it. As of 19z the front was just passing
through MAF. Temps will be cooler tonight and tomorrow behind the
front. Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s as
the wind comes around to the NE. Highs tomorrow will be it the 60s
with 70s possible closer to the Rio Grande. Unless a last minute
shower pops up... Midland will officially end the month of October
with only a trace of precipitation. This will keep 2014 on track
for one of the 10 driest years on record.
Could see a few showers or storms tonight into tomorrow over the
Lower Trans Pecos with the front but not expecting much from this.
Models do develop some light qpf and may be enough moisture south to
work with. A better chance of rain looks to be Sunday night through
Tuesday night with the upper trough approaching. Models not in
agreement as to the strength of the next trough so for now will keep
chance pops as they are.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PERIODS OF IFR ARE
EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST MID FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT/SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
905 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. VEERING PROFILE IS ALSO EVIDENT
WITH EAST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
700 MB. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BREEZY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SUPERSTITION MOUNTAINS. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN PINAL COUNTY...THOUGH THIS TRAJECTORY IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE...WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. HOWEVER...RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IN PHOENIX AND 98 DEGREES
IN YUMA APPEAR OUT OF REACH. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONSENSUS
AMONG THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS THAT THIS WILL BE WELL TO
OUR EAST...CLOSER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY MINOR SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.
DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WINDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GOING VARIABLE OR SWITCHING OUT OF THE WEST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
406 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH AT THE
SURFACE SO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE AREA
THAN WITH STRONGER WINDS AND UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. IR SAT
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ABOUT
50 MILES OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE ONTO
THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
FAIRLY DECENT BREAK IN THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY SLOT.
THE HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH INSTABILITY OR QPF SO THE
SHOWERS MAY BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE IR SAT SHOWING THE TROUGH OFFSHORE
HAS FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS. AROUND -45C IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF US. SNOW LEVELS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL DROP AS LOW
AS 4500 FT TONIGHT AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OVER THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME VORT MAXES
ROTATE AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF VORT MAX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS A
BIT...ALTHOUGH ONLY ECMWF HAS SOME QPF DURING THIS TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
VALLEYS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS. ANY AREAS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN
CLEAR WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FROST. HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY REBOUND INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT AND THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FROST...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS
CLOSER. MONDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND BRINGING SOME CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO INHIBIT COOLING IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT. MKK
&&
.AVIATION...MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH IS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL START
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
WILL DIMINISH. MKK
.LONG TERM...PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, KEPT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH MINIMAL NUDGES IN THE POP GRIDS,
MAINLY TO MATCH OUR NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE, POPULATED WITH THE
CONSMODEL FOR MOST OF THE GRIDS.
&&
.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 4-5 FT. THE 0415Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH WHAT THE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR WATERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND, THEN REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER. AS FOR SEAS, THEY WILL
BUILD TODAY AS A POST-FRONTAL SWELL ENTERS THE WATERS. LEFT THE
SC.Y`S UNCHANGED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY THEN BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
Cold front has moved through the area in the overnight hours, with
colder air and blustery winds. North/northwesterly winds up to and
in excess of 25 mph expected this afternoon, gusting to 30-35 mph.
Just shy of advisory criteria for the forecast area, but enough to
drop the wind chills into the 20s and 30s. Forecast on track
across the board. Early morning echos moving along the I-74
corridor btwn BMI and CMI have moved out to the east. Another
round of light precip (possibly a ra/sn mix) along the northern
half of the IL/IN border this afternoon as winds become
increasingly northerly and a fetch off of Lake Michigan enhances
some lake effect...and remnants may reach into the extreme east. Some
minor tweaks here and there in the forecast, and pulling the
morning wording...but overall, forecast looks good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.
Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.
Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.
Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.
More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A brief period of MVFR clouds around 2k FT will affect DEC and CMI
through 13-14z before mixing lifts the cloud deck into the VFR
range. Then VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the TAF
forecast. NW winds will increase early this morning with sustained
20-25kt and gusts to near 40kt at times by 16-17z.
The leading edge of a strong shortwave aloft could trigger a few
rain or snow showers between 14z and 18z for the northern taf
sights of PIA/BMI/CMI. Any snow would melt as it falls. Otherwise,
precipitation should be minimal at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocumulus should
begin to decrease in coverage and affect mainly areas east of I55
by afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level
shortwave. Skies should become clear even over eastern areas
after 00z tonight. Surface winds will gradually diminish,
especially the gusts, toward evening with sustained winds of
12-15 kts after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
922 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER
LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A HEALTHY TEMP DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN CWA
AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD SOUTHEAST. STRONG NNW WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD AIR AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMPACT VORT AND REALLY THE HEART OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS DIVING SSE TOWARD
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WOULD FULLY
ANTICIPATE THESE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS AND KNOCK VSBY DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. AS THE VORT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST LOOK FOR THE NON-LAKE DRIVEN PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING
NORTHERN CWA AND LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE VORT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
RESULTANT STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO
-33C AND H7 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LAKE
BEHIND THIS VORT BECOME EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET GOING IN ERNEST BEHIND THIS
VORT AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TODAY APPROACH 20K FT...NEAR THE
-30C LEVEL...WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS (SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AND ICE) IN THE CLOUDS WITHIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE AND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT P-TYPE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX...AND ALL SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FARTHER INLAND STANDS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR TODAY IS HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OR A SINGLE
INTENSE BAND. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL TIME OF DAY AM CONCERNED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED/SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MULTIPLE
BANDS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE TIME OF STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. IF A MORE ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES
FORM...THE STRONG FLOW AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAKING IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. IF SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH THEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS WOULD
BECOME MORE OF A MOOT POINT WITH RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING
IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES IN SPOTS TODAY. THE WIND
WILL BE WHIPPING THE SNOW AROUND REGARDLESS SO UNDERNEATH ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY MISERABLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS/SIDEWALKS TODAY. LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY LOOK TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY WITH THE
PRECIP LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INLAND TO JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CLIP SE COOK AND EASTERN WILL WITH LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP TODAY WHICH ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THERE.
THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SEND THE
LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO EASTERN COOK/EASTERN WILL/WESTERN LAKE IN (AND
EVEN POINTS SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCED AREAS
DROPPING WHICH WOULD BOTH TEND TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF A DOMINANT LAKE
EFFECT BAND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN 23Z AND ABOUT
04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE INSTABILITY (WHILE LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY) WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 10K FT AND LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES >20C. DOES APPEARS A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND
EASTERN WILL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OPTED NOT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
AND INSTEAD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS. BY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY END SATURDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGHER POPS LATER IN TIME
AS LAKE EFFECT RARELY WINDS DOWN AS QUICKLY AS MODEL PROGGED
PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT WILL. WORTH NOTING THAT BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH SAT MORNING THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPS DROP BELOW -12C
MEANING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS CONTAINING ICE NUCLEI FOR SNOW WILL
BE LOW...SO DESPITE LOWER TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
TRANSITIONED P-TYPE BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.
FINALLY...HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AS IS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOCATIONS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH A GOOD BET NOTHING WOULD BE GAINED FROM MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE LAKE LOOKS
LIKELY TO VERIFY WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 58 MPH
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TODAY AND REALLY NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HAVING A WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE...SO AM GOING TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE
AREAS.
HEADLINES ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS AND HEADACHE. WINTER WX ADVISORY
COVERS WIND AND SNOW...BUT IN ORDER TO GO WITH WARNING FOR WIND
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN INDIANA WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH REALLY DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT. AFTER
MUCH HEMMING AND HAWING AND INTERNAL COORDINATION HAVE OPTED TO
CHANGE THE WINTER WX ADV TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK...PORTER...AND LAKE IN. MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY BY EARLY EVENING FOR
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH...MUCH QUIETER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. SLOW
MOVING FRONT COULD BRING A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* OFF AND ON FLURRIES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME TEMPORARY SNOW SHOWERS NAMELY AT MDW.
* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD 16Z-17Z WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 KT. GUST SPEEDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND 40 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE
SPORADIC.
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MDW FROM EARLY EVENING
ONWARD.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY STEADY AT 340-350 AT ORD AND
MDW. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN AND THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE DUE NORTH.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY LATER FOR DUE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TAF. WIND SPEED
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONE UPPER
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA IS DEPARTING WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH THE NEXT WAVE IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH HAS BEEN REDUCING VSBY
TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. EXPECT A 1-2 HR
WINDOW OF -SHSN AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. VARIABLE
MVFR-VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
STEADIER VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WEST.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT TO SEE A SURGE IN GUSTS AT THAT TIME. 35
TO 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN HOW
FREQUENTLY 40 KT MAY BE REACHED. IT APPEARS THAT MID MORNING MAY
BE ONE POTENTIALLY PRIME PERIOD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE/PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY FAVORED TIME BEING MID AFTERNOON IF SKIES CAN
SCATTER. IT MAY BE THAT AN OCCASIONAL 40 KT GUST OCCURS AT ANY
POINT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE
MORNING AND FOCUS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH GYY POSSIBLY BEING
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE INITIALLY BUT LIKELY GETTING INTO THE PRIME
BANDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FAIRLY
WARM LAKE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS FAVORED TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF VERY
INTENSE BANDING CAN OCCUR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ENHANCE THE ALL SNOW POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT IFR VSBY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT TIMES BUT THERE ARE FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE PRECIP. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST 40-45 KT WITH
50 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MIDDAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
IL/IN STATE LINE AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO IMPACT MDW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE GRASS. SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR MDW. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DETAILS
THIS EVENING AT MDW/GYY AND EVEN ORD ARE LIKELY.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* LOW ON IF IFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM THAT THEY WILL STAY EAST OF ORD.
* HIGH IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING DUE NORTH AND MEDIUM IN TIMING.
HIGH IN WIND SPEEDS AND THAT ANY GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE
TEMPORARY.
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIGS. HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT
AT ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL TONIGHT AT MDW...LOW
AT ORD.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
A MAJOR WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IS
THE KEY TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MID MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD DOWN THE LAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND 50 KT FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION HOLDING AT GALES...THOUGH A FEW
50 KT GUSTS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME 55 KT GUSTS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND STRONG
MIXING OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 20 FEET BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 18-23 FT PREVAILING WAVES IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING AND TREND A BIT
NORTHEASTERLY. SHOULD SEE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY SO WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
EXISTING GALE AND STORM WARNINGS AS-IS.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY PUSH 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN LET UP NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATER TUESDAY AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 10
PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.
Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.
Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.
Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.
More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A brief period of MVFR clouds around 2k FT will affect DEC and CMI
through 13-14z before mixing lifts the cloud deck into the VFR
range. Then VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the TAF
forecast. NW winds will increase early this morning with sustained
20-25kt and gusts to near 40kt at times by 16-17z.
The leading edge of a strong shortwave aloft could trigger a few
rain or snow showers between 14z and 18z for the northern taf
sights of PIA/BMI/CMI. Any snow would melt as it falls. Otherwise,
precipitation should be minimal at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocumulus should
begin to decrease in coverage and affect mainly areas east of I55
by afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level
shortwave. Skies should become clear even over eastern areas
after 00z tonight. Surface winds will gradually diminish,
especially the gusts, toward evening with sustained winds of
12-15 kts after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
SATELLITE LOOP EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATING AN AREA OF STATUS
WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS STATUS FAIRLY WELL AND MOVED IT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM
12Z TO 15Z THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR
HOWEVER DPROG/DT INDICATED A SLIGHTLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA
OF FOG THAN WHAT THE HRRR INDICATED. CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL LEVEL. ONCE THIS FOG DISSIPATES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
BY NOON AND THEN BY LATE DAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO
KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WAS TO EXTEND THE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER S PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE BOTH DOING
WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.
WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
801 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WRN TAF SITES HAVE ALLOWED PREVAILING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT
SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR BUT WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FM NORTH WINDS AOA 30
KNOTS VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY GO TO IFR. N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 20KTS LATE AFTERNOON AT KSAW. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN
FROM THE W...DRIER AIR WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK UP TO VFR AT KSAW LATE
IN THE DAY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (KISN-KDIK) ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND 18 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT
AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL WORK FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
THE PEAK WINDS MADE THEIR WAY DOWN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM 8 AM
THROUGH 10 AM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THIS LAST PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING AS WELL. T
HE WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG JUST ABOVE THE GROUND THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 40 MPH AT 1000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE MIXING UP TO 2000
TO 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON... SO WIND GUSTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
EVERYWHERE. THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF
COUNTIES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH CRITERIA
THROUGH 6 PM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
THE ONSET OF HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING FROM 8 TO 10 AM AS
THE LAST BURST OF ENERGY TREKKED DOWN THE LAKESHORE IN THE WAKE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. LIGHT SNOW ACCOMPANIED THIS
FEATURE. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT THESE HIGH LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF
SOUTHERN WI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT MADISON TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT THE EASTERN SITES.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. EXPECT DRIER
AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KENOSHA AND SOUTH
OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WITH ANOTHER 0.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY
AREAS IS POSSIBLE AT KENOSHA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
FIRST ISSUE ARE THE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA IS LOCATED FROM NEAR VOLK FIELD EAST TO NEAR GREEN BAY INTO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. THESE WERE BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS TAKE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY 13Z.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION WITHIN DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...SO MODERATE INTENSITY
SHOULD PERSIST. A QUICK 0.1 OR 0.2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY
AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. ROADS SHOULD JUST REMAIN
WET...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THESE WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS/SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION PUSH BEHIND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONG NORTH WINDS TO LINGER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SOMEWHAT LOWER
TO THE WEST. THUS...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 12Z TO 23Z TODAY IN
THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE WEST. EASTERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...SLOWLY WEAKENING LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
LAST ISSUE IS THE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE NEAR THE LAKE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WITH VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES LINGER DURING THIS TIME.
SNOWFALL ON GRASSY AREAS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITHIN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S
INLAND...AROUND 30 LAKESIDE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S
TODAY...AND THE TEENS TONIGHT.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WITH CHILLY 850 TEMPS SUGGEST FAVORABLE ENOUGH
DELTA T TO RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR SE
CORNER TO START THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE SHRINKING BAND OVER THE
LAKE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLIPPING AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE AND ON
SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER EAST WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE/850 HIGH RIDGE AXES SHIFTING INTO
ERN WI BY DAYS END. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH WITH 850 TEMPS TRYING TO GET ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 HIGHS SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS NUDGES UP ACROSS WRN WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN
WITH DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING. 925 TEMPS BUMP UPWARDS A BIT THROUGH
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH
MOST HIGHS REACHING AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOW 50S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AS 500 FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. APPEARS 850 JET DOES INCREASE MOISTURE INTO SRN WI. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ON MONDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS MORE OF A DELAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
LOWER LOOK OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPING PRECIP GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS JUST SOME LIGHT LINGERING RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SO STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
SUPERBLEND POPS.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUICK MOVING PATTERN CONTINUES AS STRONGER 500 FLOW PERSISTS AND
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN RACING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH AND MUCH OF
THE QPF IS ALSO NORTH. OUR NORTHERN CWA IS A CLOSE CALL SO HAVE
KEPT SOME SMALL POPS THERE BUT WENT DRY IN SOUTH PER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN LINGERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
LIGHTER WINDS WITH TIME THOUGH A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH 925
TEMPS JUST A SMIDGE ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THIS MORNING. A QUICK 0.1 OR 0.2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT THE RUNWAYS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND BE JUST WET. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES...PREVAILING 1 TO 2 MILES...AROUND OR BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL...LASTING
INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS.
MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS THE DAY GOES
ON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
AN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KENOSHA AND SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
WITH ANOTHER 0.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY AREAS IS POSSIBLE AT
KENOSHA.
STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE EASTERN SITES. GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS AT
MADISON...TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AT THE EASTERN SITES...ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT MADISON TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT THE EASTERN SITES.
MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS TO OCCUR
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW 35 KNOTS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BUT
REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE UNTIL AROUND 15Z SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-059-060-
065-066-070>072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW CIGS.
PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY NOON AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
342 PM PDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold front is impacting NorCal through this evening. Rain and
mountain snow with isolated thunderstorms will impact Halloween
activities this evening. Showers are expected behind the front on
Saturday then end Sunday. Drier and milder weather next week.
&&
.Discussion...
Rain, from sprinkles to light & moderate rain, continues to impact
interior NorCal this afternoon and will continue this evening.
The 20z HRRR model is consistent with earlier runs showing the
main rain band pushing into the Sierra by 5-6 pm then reaching
pass levels by 10 pm. Another important note is that the Northern
Sacramento Valley still has the best chance for thunderstorm
development later this afternoon into evening. This latest HRRR
run shows the typical convergence line setting up between Red
Bluff and Redding crossing I-5 during early evening hours (5-9 pm).
Rain totals in the valley remain impressive with some
locations getting up towards 0.75" and most snow amounts above
6000 ft should range between 6-10".
Even though some valley locations will see breaks in the rain, it
won`t be completely dry this evening. Trick-or-Treaters need to
be prepared for wet conditions and should seek shelter if
thunderstorms are nearby. Roads will be slick from the rain and
motorists in the Sierra need to be prepared for winter driving
conditions.
Showery conditions will linger into Saturday after the main
frontal band passes east with some mountain showers persisting
into early Sunday morning. With all this moisture and cold morning
temperatures, there could be some patchy fog development during
the very early morning hours on Sunday. It`s tricky to say how
widespread the fog could be or how long it will last because
northerly winds will also develop Sunday morning. Even light
northerly winds (around 5 mph or higher) can inhibit fog.
Daytime highs over the weekend will be cool with valley highs only
warming into the mid 60s for much of our CWA. By Monday, dry
weather with a warming trend will settle in for the rest of the week.
JBB
&&
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
High pressure ridging along the west coast will be the dominant
weather feature through the extended period. Daytime highs will
climb Tuesday and Wednesday before stabilizing Thursday and
Friday. In any case, max temperature will be around 5 degrees
above normal. Extended models do move a weak system over the north
end of the ridge and into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday
according to the ECMWF. On the other hand, the GFS and GEM are a
bit slower (12-18 hrs) and weaker with this wave. We compromised
with the models and meshed with our neighboring coastal offices on
introduced and slight chance of precip over the Coastal Mountains
Wed night into Thu night. JClapp
&&
.Aviation...
Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the Valley in
rain. A few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out this afternoon and
evening across the Valley. IFR/LIFR conditions expected over the
mountains with snow levels dropping to ~5000 ft tonight.
Scattered showers expected to continue across the area tonight.
South winds expected to increase to 15 kt late this afternoon
and evening as front passes, becoming lighter overnight. Over the
mountains, SW wind gusts 35 to 50 kt possible through tonight.
JClapp/Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 2 pm pdt saturday above 6000 feet
in the western plumas county/lassen park.
winter storm warning until 2 pm pdt saturday above 6000 feet in
the west slope northern sierra nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1026 AM PDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold front will impact interior NorCal today and tonight
bringing rain and mountain snow with isolated thunderstorms.
Much cooler temperatures are also expected. Showers are expected
behind the front on Saturday then end Sunday. Drier and milder
weather next week.
&&
.Discussion...
The rain has moved inland and several locations in our CWA are
getting sprinkles to light & moderate rain. High resolution models
show that the main band of precipitation will be fairly
centered over NorCal from Redding down into Sacramento and into
the Bay Area by noon. The latest HRRR model this morning is
indicating that the main rain band will be pushing into the
eastern side of the valley into the Sierra by 5-6 pm. Which means
some valley locations could start seeing breaks in the rain, but
it won`t be completely dry. Another important note from the HRRR is
that the Northern Sacramento Valley could have the best chance
for thunderstorm development later this afternoon into evening.
Rain totals in the valley are fairly impressive with some
locations getting up towards 0.75" and most snow amounts above
6000 ft should range between 6-10".
Our main message has not changed: Very wet today with snow in
the Sierra by 5-6 pm. Trick-or-Treaters need to be prepared for
wet conditions and need to seek shelter if thunderstorms are
nearby. Roads will be slick from the rain and motorists in the
Sierra need to be prepared for winter driving conditions.
.Previous Discussion...
As the front moves into the Sierra late this afternoon
and tonight...higher elevations will see snowfall. Snow levels by
early this evening are forecast to drop to pass levels then
expected to continue to drop to as low as 4500-5000 feet on
Saturday as cooler air behind the front moves into the region. The
main frontal band shifts east of the state by mid day Saturday
with showers likely to continue through the day as the main upper
low crosses the north state. Cool temperatures continue on
Saturday with daytime highs as much as 10 degrees below normal.
Sierra showers end on Saturday night as the upper flow becomes
more anti-cyclonic behind a retreating upper level trough. High
pressure building over the eastern Pacific and west coast will
bring clearing skies on Sunday and the beginning of a warming
trend that should last through most of next week. By Monday...High
pressure building over the west coast will bring still warmer
temperatures with daytime highs climbing to just below normal.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
High pressure ridging along the west coast will be the dominant
weather feature through the extended period. Daytime highs will climb
Tuesday and Wednesday warning to several degrees above normal.
Extended models now move a weak system over the north end of the
ridge and into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. Operational
ECMWF would bring light precipitation across much of the forecast
area but for now...have gone with the GEM and GFS models which
keep precipitation just north of the CWA. Extended models now in
good agreement in keeping some form of ridging over the west coast
through the end of next week so extended period remains dry with
slightly above normal temperatures.
&&
.Aviation...
A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions across the forecast area this
morning as a cold front moves inland. Steady rain has already developed
near KRDD-KRBL and KVCB-KSUU. Some sprinkles have started in the
Sac Metro region, but expect steadier rain near Sacramento and
Stockton TAF sites between 20-22z. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions
are expected across the Valley in rain. A few thunderstorms can`t
be ruled out this afternoon and evening across the Valley.
IFR/LIFR conditions expected over the mountains with snow levels
dropping from ~7500 ft this morning to ~5000 ft tonight. Scattered
showers expected to continue across the area tonight.
South winds up to 15 kt expected to continue across the Valley
through this afternoon, becoming lighter overnight. Over the
mountains, SW wind gusts up to 50 kt possible through tonight.
Dang/JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 pm pdt
saturday above 6000 feet in the western plumas county/lassen
park.
winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 pm pdt
saturday above 6000 feet in the west slope northern sierra
nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
454 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.
WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD
NEW JERSEY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.
COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MAIN TWO FEATURES IN THE TAFS ARE THE STEADY MVFR RAIN AND
GUSTY N-NE FLOW WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE LATTER
HALF OF TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES
MORE STEADY AND THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. RAIN COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE PERIODIC IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTH.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS.
GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...JM/MPS
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.
WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD
NEW JERSEY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.
COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT...LOWERING
TO 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
EVENING...AND CONDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDS. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO IFR
SOMETIME FROM 12Z-18Z SATURDAY IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.
NE WINDS 8-12 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
TO 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND CONDS
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LATE SATURDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS.
GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A SECONDARY INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY RACING SOUTHWARD DOWN CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF MKE. OVERALL IT APPEARS
THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS (BY 1630Z). HOWEVER...I AM ALSO
CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO THROUGH LATE MORNING. IN FACT...SOME OF THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY IS ALREADY INDICATING SOME BANDS OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY. IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...AND WIND SPEEDS
COULD ALSO INCREASE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENT WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH OBSERVATION TRENDS...AND HANDLE THIS SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA WITH GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS AT THIS TIME. IT
DOES APPEAR THIS INITIAL BURST OF SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
LIVED ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WE HAVE
NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO EXPAND THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY AND BURST OF SNOW...HI RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREAS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE WINTER HEADLINE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON TRYING TO WORK MORE WEST INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS. SOME
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL EFFECT AREAS
NEAR...OR EVEN ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA STATE LINE....AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF CHICAGO AS WELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...AND UNCERTAINTY STILL INHERENT IN WHERE ANY LAKE EFFECT
BAND...OR BANDS WILL SET UP...I WOULD LIKE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE BEFORE PUSHING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND WINTER
HEADLINES FARTHER WEST.
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...I WILL LIKELY
ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FOR AREAS A BIT FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS BASED ON REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW...AND
RADAR TRENDS.
KJB
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER
LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A HEALTHY TEMP DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN CWA
AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD SOUTHEAST. STRONG NNW WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD AIR AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMPACT VORT AND REALLY THE HEART OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS DIVING SSE TOWARD
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WOULD FULLY
ANTICIPATE THESE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS AND KNOCK VSBY DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. AS THE VORT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST LOOK FOR THE NON-LAKE DRIVEN PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING
NORTHERN CWA AND LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE VORT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
RESULTANT STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO
-33C AND H7 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LAKE
BEHIND THIS VORT BECOME EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET GOING IN ERNEST BEHIND THIS
VORT AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TODAY APPROACH 20K FT...NEAR THE
-30C LEVEL...WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS (SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AND ICE) IN THE CLOUDS WITHIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE AND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT P-TYPE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX...AND ALL SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FARTHER INLAND STANDS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR TODAY IS HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OR A SINGLE
INTENSE BAND. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL TIME OF DAY AM CONCERNED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED/SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MULTIPLE
BANDS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE TIME OF STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. IF A MORE ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES
FORM...THE STRONG FLOW AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAKING IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. IF SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH THEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS WOULD
BECOME MORE OF A MOOT POINT WITH RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING
IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES IN SPOTS TODAY. THE WIND
WILL BE WHIPPING THE SNOW AROUND REGARDLESS SO UNDERNEATH ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY MISERABLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS/SIDEWALKS TODAY. LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY LOOK TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY WITH THE
PRECIP LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INLAND TO JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CLIP SE COOK AND EASTERN WILL WITH LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP TODAY WHICH ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THERE.
THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SEND THE
LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO EASTERN COOK/EASTERN WILL/WESTERN LAKE IN (AND
EVEN POINTS SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCED AREAS
DROPPING WHICH WOULD BOTH TEND TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF A DOMINANT LAKE
EFFECT BAND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN 23Z AND ABOUT
04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE INSTABILITY (WHILE LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY) WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 10K FT AND LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES >20C. DOES APPEARS A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND
EASTERN WILL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OPTED NOT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
AND INSTEAD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS. BY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY END SATURDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGHER POPS LATER IN TIME
AS LAKE EFFECT RARELY WINDS DOWN AS QUICKLY AS MODEL PROGGED
PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT WILL. WORTH NOTING THAT BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH SAT MORNING THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPS DROP BELOW -12C
MEANING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS CONTAINING ICE NUCLEI FOR SNOW WILL
BE LOW...SO DESPITE LOWER TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
TRANSITIONED P-TYPE BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.
FINALLY...HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AS IS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOCATIONS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH A GOOD BET NOTHING WOULD BE GAINED FROM MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE LAKE LOOKS
LIKELY TO VERIFY WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 58 MPH
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TODAY AND REALLY NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HAVING A WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE...SO AM GOING TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE
AREAS.
HEADLINES ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS AND HEADACHE. WINTER WX ADVISORY
COVERS WIND AND SNOW...BUT IN ORDER TO GO WITH WARNING FOR WIND
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN INDIANA WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH REALLY DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT. AFTER
MUCH HEMMING AND HAWING AND INTERNAL COORDINATION HAVE OPTED TO
CHANGE THE WINTER WX ADV TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK...PORTER...AND LAKE IN. MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY BY EARLY EVENING FOR
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PERIODS OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TEMPORARY SNOW SHOWERS NAMELY AT MDW.
* VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PROBABLE TO SHIFT DUE NORTH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SPORADIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.
* CIGS POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 2000-3000 FT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD FURTHER AFFECT MDW THIS EVE.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY STEADY AT 340-350 AT ORD AND
MDW. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN AND THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE DUE NORTH.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY LATER FOR DUE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TAF. WIND SPEED
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONE UPPER
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA IS DEPARTING WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH THE NEXT WAVE IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH HAS BEEN REDUCING VSBY
TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. EXPECT A 1-2 HR
WINDOW OF -SHSN AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. VARIABLE
MVFR-VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
STEADIER VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WEST.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT TO SEE A SURGE IN GUSTS AT THAT TIME. 35
TO 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN HOW
FREQUENTLY 40 KT MAY BE REACHED. IT APPEARS THAT MID MORNING MAY
BE ONE POTENTIALLY PRIME PERIOD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE/PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY FAVORED TIME BEING MID AFTERNOON IF SKIES CAN
SCATTER. IT MAY BE THAT AN OCCASIONAL 40 KT GUST OCCURS AT ANY
POINT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE
MORNING AND FOCUS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH GYY POSSIBLY BEING
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE INITIALLY BUT LIKELY GETTING INTO THE PRIME
BANDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FAIRLY
WARM LAKE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS FAVORED TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF VERY
INTENSE BANDING CAN OCCUR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ENHANCE THE ALL SNOW POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT IFR VSBY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT TIMES BUT THERE ARE FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE PRECIP. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST 40-45 KT WITH
50 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MIDDAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
IL/IN STATE LINE AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO IMPACT MDW WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE GRASS. SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR MDW. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DETAILS
THIS EVENING AT MDW/GYY AND EVEN ORD ARE LIKELY.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW ON IF IFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM THAT THEY WILL STAY EAST OF ORD.
* HIGH IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING DUE NORTH BUT LOW IN EXACT
TIMING. HIGH IN WIND SPEEDS AND THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35 KT
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL TONIGHT AT MDW...LOW
AT ORD.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
A MAJOR WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IS
THE KEY TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MID MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD DOWN THE LAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND 50 KT FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION HOLDING AT GALES...THOUGH A FEW
50 KT GUSTS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME 55 KT GUSTS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND STRONG
MIXING OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 20 FEET BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 18-23 FT PREVAILING WAVES IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING AND TREND A BIT
NORTHEASTERLY. SHOULD SEE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY SO WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
EXISTING GALE AND STORM WARNINGS AS-IS.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY PUSH 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN LET UP NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATER TUESDAY AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 10
PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
Cold front has moved through the area in the overnight hours, with
colder air and blustery winds. North/northwesterly winds up to and
in excess of 25 mph expected this afternoon, gusting to 30-35 mph.
Just shy of advisory criteria for the forecast area, but enough to
drop the wind chills into the 20s and 30s. Forecast on track
across the board. Early morning echos moving along the I-74
corridor btwn BMI and CMI have moved out to the east. Another
round of light precip (possibly a ra/sn mix) along the northern
half of the IL/IN border this afternoon as winds become
increasingly northerly and a fetch off of Lake Michigan enhances
some lake effect...and remnants may reach into the extreme east. Some
minor tweaks here and there in the forecast, and pulling the
morning wording...but overall, forecast looks good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.
Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.
Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.
Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.
More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A brief period of MVFR clouds around 2k FT will affect DEC and CMI
through 13-14z before mixing lifts the cloud deck into the VFR
range. Then VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the TAF
forecast. NW winds will increase early this morning with sustained
20-25kt and gusts to near 40kt at times by 16-17z.
The leading edge of a strong shortwave aloft could trigger a few
rain or snow showers between 14z and 18z for the northern taf
sights of PIA/BMI/CMI. Any snow would melt as it falls. Otherwise,
precipitation should be minimal at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocumulus should
begin to decrease in coverage and affect mainly areas east of I55
by afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level
shortwave. Skies should become clear even over eastern areas
after 00z tonight. Surface winds will gradually diminish,
especially the gusts, toward evening with sustained winds of
12-15 kts after 02z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRIER THAN COMPARED TO ITS 00Z COUNTERPART, AND MOST
OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT COULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
ALSO TO BLEND IN WITH THE DAYS 4-7 SOLUTION. THE BEST PLACE FOR THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TO THE WEST,
LOCATIONS MAY BE SHORT CHANGED ON PRECIP IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES AND THERE
IS TOO MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM ALONG WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
BEYOND MONDAY, WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER
AIR MASS TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60. AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WILL SEE CONTINUED MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE SUPERBLEND
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN A WEEK FROM NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE LOCATION IS FORECAST
FAIRLY FAR SOUTH, SO THE LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 30 56 42 70 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 31 62 42 75 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 39 66 44 76 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 33 63 39 73 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 27 53 42 71 / 0 0 0 10
P28 28 54 41 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE NW. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGEST AT KSAW WHERE
FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AND MOISTURE WILL HANG
ON THE LONGEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>006-009.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LOWER STRATUS IS
QUICKLY ERODING OVER THE FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE.
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AT 18 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LOWER STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED A KISN AND KDIK. THEREFORE
WILL BE ABLE TO START OUT THE 18 UTC FORECAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
AT ALL AERODROMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF RETURNING STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL BUT MODELS INDICATE LESS OF AN
INVERSION TONIGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ON STRONG NORTH WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ALL WEEKEND...WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE DIGGING H5 LOW TONIGHT...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE SMALLER FEATURES. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN TONIGHT
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW
MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE CRITICAL THICKNESSES DROP. LEANED
TOWARDS THE RAP/HRRR WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. THE RAP DROPS 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESSES ENUF FOR SNOW
TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEGINNING AROUND 03-04Z IN THE NW. THE
THICKNESSES SLOWLY DROP S THEN E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THE SCIOTO VALLEY WILL MANAGE TO STAY RAIN THRU THE
EVENT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WANT TO LINGER THE PCPN IN THE COLD AIR
LONGER THAN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONTINUED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KY.
ALSO CONTINUED WITH THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE
FA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OF BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE H5 LOW SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO EAST COAST SATURDAY
MORNING...SOME PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COLD NLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT A VERY COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
BUILDING SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THE CLOUDS FROM W TO E. WITH THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SE INDIANA WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 20S. IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE AROUND 30. CONTINUED FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. DESPITE
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL START OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERMITTING THE
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
REINFORCE THIS FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ELONGATED AXIS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SPAWNING IT STRENGTHENS AND OCCLUDES OVER HUDSON
BAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS
BACK...STRONG ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A 5 DEG
JUMP IN HIGHS ON THIS DAY. WED AND THURS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS AND THEN SEE A DROP AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
USHERS IN COOLER AIR. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
HIGH WITH THE GFS FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER PUSHING IN COOLER
AIR...AND THE EURO ACTUALLY OVER THE REGION PERMITTING A WARMUP WITH
MORE WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. MEANWHILE CEILINGS WILL BE
MVFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THAT. SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IN THE
CINCINNATI AREA LATE TODAY. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER
00Z AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN EXPECT THIS TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT AROUND COLUMBUS WHERE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT WILL PREVAIL AND
SOME PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WHILE VERY SLOWLY
VEERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY
LIFTING ALTHOUGH REMAINING MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ089>100.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATE
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORNING FOG. 09Z SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST WY THRU AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE...SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AS 1040MB SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. LLVL INVERSION IS STEEPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN 2-3F
ACROSS THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AREAS IN SE WY ALONG THE
STATELINE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK AND INTO THE SE
WYOMING PLAINS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN EARLY MORNING DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS. FOG LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PATCHY AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS FOG /LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THE LONGEST THIS MORNING NOT DISSIPATING
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY AHEAD AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU THE CWFA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THO AS WELL
AS MOISTURE ABOVE H5 BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OTHER CONCERN
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE NRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SPECIFICALLY NR THE PINE RIDGE. ALL OUTPUT IS
POINT TO MARGINAL WINDS WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OVR THE PINE RIDGE.
MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AREA IN STRONG SSE SFC
FLOW. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SIOUX...DAWES...AND BOX
BUTTE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE 16Z-01Z TODAY.
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS E-C WY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WRN NE PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SOUTHWEST AT
20 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE NEXT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WITH ONE PIECE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A LATER
ARRIVAL IN PRECIP CHANCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR AFTER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NR 50 WEST AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND UPPER JET WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE
EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW ALONG I80.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM A CLOSE SECOND...SHOWING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS A 100KT JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EVEN WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CURRENT 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN TO 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 4O TO
45 DEGREES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...SO THESE VALUES
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER ANY COLDER THAN 20 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH BUT MAY SEE MODERATE QPF VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. HOWEVER...THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SO WILL NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
SHALLOW LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY ERODED OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY AT ALL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
CHEYENNE...AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA FORECAST SITES...DIMINISHING A
BIT BY LATE EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED RELAXING THE GRADIENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014
ALTHOUGH A DRY DAY...A CLOUDY OR FOGGY START IN MANY AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF...LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL OFFER THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CAH