Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/30/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
908 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
...COOLER AIRMASS ON THE WAY...
.UPDATE...
A FEW BROKEN BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
WERE EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND IMPACTING OUR NW GA
ZONES FROM JEFF DAVIS TO ATKINSON COUNTY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY LOW/MID
LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS REFLECTED IN THE 00Z JAX/TAE
RAOBS AND INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST TRENDS OF LOW 20-30% RAIN CHANCES
WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SE GA ZONES MAINLY N OF WAYCROSS...THEN SHOWERS
FADING INLAND WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SUNRISE THU. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER SE GA BY
DAYBREAK THU WITH LOW 60S OVER NE FL WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MOST PROBABLE OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HRS
DESPITE THICKENING PATCHY OF CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS VERY WEAK THIS EVENING NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN...AND THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE FL-GA STATE-LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE SSI
TAF TONIGHT FOR NOW. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST PROBABLE AT GNV AND
POSSIBLY VQQ. THE HRRR ADVERTISED LOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT UNDER SW FLOW OUT OF THE
GOMEX JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...THEN THE LOW CIGS DRIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARD GNV AND POSSIBLY VQQ THROUGH SUNRISE. BY EARLY
AFTN THU...THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE VCSH IN THE NE FL TAFS. NNE FLOW
DEVELOPS THU EVENING...WITH THE NAM12 BUFR SOUNDING SUGGESTING
LOWER MVFR CIGS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY. A REINFORCING
BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH
COLDER AND WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE AND RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THU WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 57 76 49 72 / 30 10 0 0
SSI 64 73 56 72 / 10 20 10 10
JAX 62 78 55 74 / 10 30 20 10
SGJ 65 78 60 75 / 10 30 30 10
GNV 60 80 56 76 / 0 30 30 10
OCF 60 82 57 77 / 0 30 30 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/NELSON/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG
MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DISPLAYS
THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO THE WEST SECTION. HOWEVER...DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND
INTO THIS DRIER AIR.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CAE...AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
CUB/DNL.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST
AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
022-027>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG
MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DISPLAYS
THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO THE WEST SECTION. HOWEVER...DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND
INTO THIS DRIER AIR.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
CAE/CUB/DNL.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST
AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
022-027>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE POSTED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN
THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE
INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND INTO THIS DRIER AIR.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
CAE/CUB/DNL.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST
AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-022-
029-031-036>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG
SPREADING WESTWARD TO NEAR A COLUMBIA TO AUGUSTA LINE LATER THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST AND A SW WIND
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-022-
029-031-036>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT IS SHOWING RECENT SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPS AT 02Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
40S.
NOT MUCH NEEDED TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD DECK DEPARTS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. RUC RH PROGS HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CLOUD DECK AND WERE PRIMARILY
UTILIZED. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...EXPECT THE DECK TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA BEING THE LAST SECTION TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW TEMPS AS RELAXING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
AND 3-6 HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF
FROST ACCRUAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE. DO EXPECT
SHELTERED...LOW LYING AND OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SEE FROST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.
ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT KIND LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT IS SHOWING RECENT SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPS AT 02Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
40S.
NOT MUCH NEEDED TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD DECK DEPARTS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. RUC RH PROGS HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CLOUD DECK AND WERE PRIMARILY
UTILIZED. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...EXPECT THE DECK TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA BEING THE LAST SECTION TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW TEMPS AS RELAXING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
AND 3-6 HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF
FROST ACCRUAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE. DO EXPECT
SHELTERED...LOW LYING AND OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SEE FROST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.
ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT KIND LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TO THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FUNNELING BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
SUBTLE BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS CURRENTLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOWER LEVELS
ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT BUT DID
EXPAND AND PUSH UP THE TIMING OF POPS FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND CG LIGHTNING REPORTS.
STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AFTER
06Z...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PCPN CHANCES. WATER VAPOR THIS
AFTERNOON CLEARLY SHOWS PARENT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION STREAMING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE RIDING
AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH HERE LATER
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
INITIAL WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO 50
KNOTS MAY AID IN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIRES GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT WHILE AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDEED SHOWS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY BEGINNING OVER EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL.
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A LOW TO MODERATE POP FROM 00Z THROUGH
06Z THEN RAMPING UP POPS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS
AS MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT BURGEONING AREA OF PCPN
UPSTREAM THIS EVENING WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE WHICH
SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET.
SPEED OF SYSTEM AND DISTANCE CURRENTLY BETWEEN PARENT LOW AND
MOISTURE FEED SUPPORT STRONG DRY SLOT MOVING IN TUESDAY QUICKLY
ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRATOCUMULUS FILLING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT NOT READY TO GO AGAINST
SUBSIDENCE AND PRIOR TRENDS AT THIS TIME.
LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COLDER AIR INITIALLY SLOW TO INFILTRATE...LIKELY
BEING OFFSET BY CLEARING AND DIURNAL SUN IN EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS FALL MORE RAPIDLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND COLD WEDGE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
PERIOD WILL START ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TRY TO NOSE IN THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH WILL BREAK OFF
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. FOLLOWING THE FAR SUPERIOR
ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN THESE MORE ENERGIZED PATTERN A
BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BOTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE WITH
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BYPASS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THAT BEING SAID 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL
DROP INTO THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE AT 850 MB. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
COMING IN AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1300 M...THE
CONCERN IS RAISED FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW BEING MIXED IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH 925 MB...BUT
SFC TEMPS SUGGEST READINGS AROUND 40. A MENTION OF SNOW MAY NOT HURT
IN FAR NE AREAS BUT HOLDING OFF FOR NOW WITH BEST TIME FRAME
OCCURRING AS BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE DEPARTING.
AS MENTIONED...COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT AS DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A CONTINUED BUT MORE RELAXED NW FLOW IN
TERMS OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING THETA E BUT WITH AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP TONED DOWN ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO KSBN AFTER 08-09Z AND KFWA BY
10-11Z ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/RAIN...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. MAINTAINED VCTS GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO DRY/VFR IS EXPECTED MID-LATE MORNING AT KSBN
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KFWA AS SYSTEM DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave
rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few
bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the
local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level
frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light
amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both
forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these
processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends.
Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with
temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and
light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being
impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high.
Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air
than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent
mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning
to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours
should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains.
Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local
temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be
kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected
areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the
very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible
across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make
it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the
area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some
amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper
along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed
overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving
driving southward into the northern and central plains for
Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and
should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder
temperatures make it southward.
Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night
Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far,
but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine
should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon.
The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into
early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas
with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper
ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the
50s for Saturday.
How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for
Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see
some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low
for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for
rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such,
but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely
change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will remain
light from the northwest under 10 kts, becoming light and variable
as high pressure slowly builds into eastern Kansas. Soundings are
not favorable for fog development given dry low levels.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
621 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave
rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few
bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the
local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level
frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light
amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both
forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these
processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends.
Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with
temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and
light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being
impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high.
Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air
than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent
mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning
to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours
should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains.
Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local
temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be
kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected
areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the
very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible
across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make
it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the
area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some
amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper
along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed
overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving
driving southward into the northern and central plains for
Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and
should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder
temperatures make it southward.
Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night
Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far,
but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine
should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon.
The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into
early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas
with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper
ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the
50s for Saturday.
How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for
Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see
some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low
for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for
rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such,
but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely
change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR conditions expected as dry high pressure builds in. Modest
northwest winds will dominate, with weaker winds for much of the
latter half of the forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave
rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few
bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the
local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level
frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light
amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both
forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these
processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends.
Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with
temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and
light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being
impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high.
Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air
than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent
mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning
to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours
should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains.
Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local
temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be
kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected
areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the
very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible
across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make
it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the
area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some
amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper
along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed
overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving
driving southward into the northern and central plains for
Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and
should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder
temperatures make it southward.
Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night
Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far,
but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine
should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon.
The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into
early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas
with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper
ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the
50s for Saturday.
How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for
Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see
some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low
for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for
rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such,
but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely
change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
VFR prevails as northwesterly winds back to the west and weaken
through 17Z. BKN cloud cover gradually exits east as influence from
surface high pressure spreads eastward. Another passing upper wave
increase westerly winds to near 10 kts during the afternoon with
SCT high clouds in place.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
CLOUD COVER FINALLY GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN MANY
LOCALES. HAVE OPTED NOT TO PUT ANY FURTHER AREAS IN FREEZE WARNING
OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN CURRENT COLORADO ZONES. TEMPS ARE DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW STILL OVER
AREA NW KANSAS ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE HARD FREEZE NUMBERS. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS
REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET
SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON SATURDAY.
BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY
APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE
CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR
TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE
COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE
ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS
INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A
POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH...
BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON
WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SKC BEFORE 13Z-14Z TUESDAY AND
AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCT100-150. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS
BECOMING WSW AROUND 5 KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
940 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 PM UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE.
HAVE SPED UP THE CLEARING LINE WHICH IS REACHING THE CT VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND
SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUSLY...
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.
ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
910 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
910 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE DOWN EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 06Z
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE
TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN MAINE.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...
&&
.CLIMATE...
CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN
MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST.
AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.
TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS
SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN
MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST.
AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESEPCIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.
TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 142 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT PLN ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING HELPS CLEAR
OUT THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN CONTINUING COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTS IN ENOUGH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
EXPECT WRLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AIDED
BY INCREASING SFC HEATING/MIXING. WINDS MAY STILL A BIT GUSTY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LVL
CENTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. INTENSITY OF UPPER LOW AND
POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW LVL
TROUGH TO EXIST FROM THE SFC LOW WEST INTO SERN MANITOBA.THE DEEPLY
CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY SATURATED NATURE OF THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE
HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE OVERCAST WITH A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. PTYPES REMAIN LIQUID OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER A MIX OF RASN...OR EVEN ALL SNOW...EXISTS JUST ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE WRN CWA. SUSPECT SOME WET SNOW IS OCCURRING IN WRN
KOOCH COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE
SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW.
VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF
DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN
COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN
THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY
LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN
ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON
ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM
SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM
PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID
LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN
EDGE OF CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT
UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM
NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN
WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL
PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS
EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO
PREVAILING VCSH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 41 33 43 / 60 10 10 20
INL 31 39 30 40 / 70 10 10 30
BRD 31 43 33 47 / 20 0 10 10
HYR 34 44 32 47 / 50 10 10 30
ASX 35 44 33 47 / 60 10 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES
EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE.
PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM
INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED
WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN
IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND
DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT
FEW HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS
EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO
PREVAILING VCSH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 31 39 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 31 43 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 34 44 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 35 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES
EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE.
PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM
INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED
WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN
IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND
DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT
FEW HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NE
ONTARIO TODAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER
NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -RA OR -RASN. GUSTY W
TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 31 39 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 31 43 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 34 44 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 35 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NE
ONTARIO TODAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER
NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -RA OR -RASN. GUSTY W
TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 30 38 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 33 44 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 35 45 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 37 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143-144.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
355 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
LOW LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING AND WE
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE...BUT AS THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN...MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR ALL SNOW OCCUR OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 30 38 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 33 44 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 35 45 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 37 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143-144.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE/GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1037 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Lowered mins a few degrees esp for the ern Ozarks and upped the
frost wording from patchy to areas. Toyed with issuing a frost
advy earlier this evng...but decided against it based on limited
window. Also backed off on approaching mid/high cloud cover
overnight which favors the cooler temps across the ern Ozarks.
Didn`t adjust other areas as much due to the expected cloud cover
arriving prior to sunrise and winds picking up from the south as
well. Increased PoPs for tomorrow...esp during the aftn and mainly
for areas from the STL metro and to the S and E. Precip appears to
dvlp/fill in over the CWA during the day with the best coverage
during the aftn across SE MO and sthrn IL.
2%
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Another cold night as surface ridge centered over western MO shifts
southeastward through our forecast area. There will likely be
patchy light frost late tonight, especially across southeast MO and
southwest IL where the sky will be mostly clear and the surface wind
light. Mid-high level clouds will be spreading into northeast and
central portions of MO late tonight due to increasing low-mid level
warm air advection ahead of an approaching northwest flow shortwave.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Scattered showers are expected to develop and shift southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of
the shortwave and an associated weak surface low. Much colder air
will advect southeastward into the region Thursday night and Friday
as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and as
a large and strong surface ridge builds southeastward into our area
from the northern Plains. Strong cold air advection and gusty
surface winds can be expected on Friday with highs only in the 40s
across most of our forecast area. The models drop the -8 degree C
850 mb isotherm southward to near the STL area on Friday. The
coldest temperatures are expected Friday night as the sky clears out
and the surface wind diminishes with the surface ridge axis across
northeast and central MO by 12z Saturday. Will issue a freeze watch
for late Friday night and early Saturday morning with lows in the
20s expected across most of our forecast area. A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastward across the
region, and the surface/low level winds become s/swly as the
surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our area. There will be a
chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night as
an upper level trough approaches and a cold front moves slowly
southeastward through the region. The GFS is a little more
progressive with the upper level trough and associated cold front
versus the ECMWF model, and shifts the precipitation southeast of
our forecast area by Tuesday evening.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Next shortwave and low pressure appears on track, although models,
specifically HRRR, is a bit more robust and faster with possible
precipitaton. Have moved up clouds and VCSH about an hour, and
introduced to COU as HRRR has precipitaton futher west. Guidance
holds in clouds until about 12z Friday, so will keep VFR clouds in
for now, althought the NAM guidance tries to bring in MVFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Generally increasing VFR clouds with a VCSH as
the clipper type system moves through Thursday. Nam guidance
brings in MRF clouds late in the period. MVFR to IFR clouds in
Canada, but will hold off for now and stick with the GFD VFR
forecast.
JPK
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy. (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
804 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN CANADA
WILL BE TAPPED INTO BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUD NEARING FAR NORTHEAST MT AS OF 8PM.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIR HANDLING OF THE STRATUS...AS DOES
THE NAM...SO EXPECT IT TO REACH BAKER AROUND 10Z AND MILES CITY
12Z. CANADIAN OBS SHOW CIGS IN THE HUNDREDS OF FEET AGL...SO THE
HIGHER HILLS OF OUR EAST WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED BY EARLY
TOMORROW. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND RAISED SKY COVER IN OUR EAST
BEGINNING AT 09Z...SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD FORSYTH/BROADUS BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT
SINCE SUNSET...AND ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LONG SINCE ENDED
AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. TWEAKED WINDS/POPS TO FIT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
MIXED AIRMASS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW WITH EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES COLDER OUT THERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS MOVING INTO THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SUPPORTS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. FOR CENTRAL ZONES WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND SOUTHERLY
WHICH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. FOR HALLOWEEN
EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH THE ONLY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOUND IN MILES CITY...BAKER...EKALAKA AND
BROADUS JUST BECAUSE OF WINDY CONDITIONS. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
LATEST EXTENDED MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN SOMEWHAT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS THOUGH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY IN BRINGING AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL
BE SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BRINGING A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL BE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER BY THIS TIME WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH. THE GFS KEEPS
THE TROUGH MORE OPEN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EJECTS IT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...QPF DIFFERS IN AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT AS THE
GFS IS MORE SCATTERED WITH THE PRECIP BUT THE ECMWF IS MORE
WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES DIFFER AS WELL WITH THE GFS MAINLY
STAYING ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE 0C LINE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX FOR THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND
MOUNTAINS.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGING
BUILDING ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW STATUS
AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST ROUTES...INCLUDING KMLS
AND KBHK...AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/057 037/066 042/065 037/047 033/047 033/056 039/060
00/U 00/U 00/B 44/W 32/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 033/058 036/069 042/065 034/044 028/047 033/051 036/057
00/U 00/U 00/B 66/W 32/W 11/N 11/B
HDN 033/059 034/066 036/069 034/048 030/049 028/058 034/061
00/U 00/U 00/B 34/W 42/W 11/U 11/U
MLS 032/050 031/059 034/065 034/047 029/049 028/056 034/058
00/B 00/B 00/U 33/W 42/W 11/U 11/B
4BQ 035/054 033/060 037/068 037/049 031/050 031/058 034/059
00/U 00/N 00/B 23/W 32/W 11/U 11/B
BHK 030/044 028/047 030/061 035/046 028/045 027/054 031/056
00/B 00/N 00/U 12/W 32/W 11/U 11/B
SHR 030/057 032/068 036/071 033/048 028/050 024/055 030/060
00/U 00/U 00/B 34/W 32/W 11/U 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
905 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY... AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... WILL
RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAVING MOVED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN... WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT (INDICATED BY A FALL-
OFF IN DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E IN ITS WAKE) IS A BIT FURTHER
NW... STRETCHING ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH... AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90+ KT JET TO OUR
NNE... APPEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REBIRTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT... WELL MODELED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THE RAP
ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF ARW/NMM MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING RAIN JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES WITH TIMING
AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATH OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXTRAPOLATION OF OBSERVED AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
ALONG WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE GLAMP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOWS FROM 44 NW TO 56 SE... WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.
DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...
A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.
FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST"
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS WILL ONLY LAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z OR SO AT
KRWI AND KFAY THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KFAY AND KRWI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-02Z BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NNE AND DROP OFF IN SPEED... TO LESS
THAN 6KT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
THEN... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. HOWEVER... THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION AS ARE THE RESULTANT CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. GUSTY NW WINDS AT 15-25KT EXPECTED IN THE
REAR OF THE STORM SYSTEM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL/GIH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...PWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1004 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM EDT. LINGERING LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING FOG
SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SKIES WILL AGAIN REMAIN
CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID LEVELS
VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST
REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
921 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL HANG
AROUND IN MOST AREAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THUS THE DFA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO ONCE
MIXING DEVELOPS THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. SKIES WILL AGAIN
REMAIN CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID
LEVELS VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST
REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
444 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS
LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG IS QUITE
SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN
THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME
INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE
A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN
THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW
WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
TO SET UP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THIS LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF
ANY WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR
SKY CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES
HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS
HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL BE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY
GROUND SWELL PREVAILING...AND DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS
AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW WIND
DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS
...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG
IS QUITE SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY
1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN
THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME
INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT.
MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP ACROSS THE
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW
LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THIS
LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF ANY WILL BE PATCHY
AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS
POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND OVER THE GULF
STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING
OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED
SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..........................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY
HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE
BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C
DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40
DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON
MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY
WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
MARINE...DCH/REK/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
215 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COOLING AND A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE/STORY THIS PERIOD IS A
A LEGITIMATE SHOT AT BREAKING A FEW RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LOCATION TUE OCT 28 WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON 87/1984 82/1984
FLORENCE 86/1991 84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH 83/1991 83/1991
APPEARS BASED ON THE DATA THE BEST SHOT AT MAKING HISTORY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHICH STILL PLACES US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS OF RH IMPLY WE MAY SEE
PLENTY SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY TO HELP THE CAUSE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT
NOW A CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED S AND E OF THE AREA DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS
ALREADY IN PLACE AT FIRST LIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED. THURSDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START BUT DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN AND THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP QUITE SEASONABLE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
ANOTHER SEASONABLE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ON TAP. THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE COLD ADVECTION
INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST. SATURDAY STILL LIKELY
OFFERS A BREEZY AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED
60...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ENDS UP RIGHT
OVERHEAD AND THERE MAY BE A N TO S GRADIENT IN HIGHS. THIS THERMAL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT
RADIATION COOLING IS FAVORED SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME RECOVERY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM....WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...S-SW WINDS THIS PERIOD...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE FIELD SURROUNDING THIS
FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONGLY CONTRASTED THUS NO ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH
PASSAGE. WE MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT HOWEVER AND SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ADVISORY HOWEVER MAY
BE NEEDED THU. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 3-5 SECONDS TIED IN
WITH LOCAL WINDS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER ON
THURSDAY. THE NORMAL COLD SURGE-INDUCED INCREASE IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED BUT ITS ONSET WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL AT FIRST. THIS WILL
BE MORE REALIZED HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES LOCALLY.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN EVEN
FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WNA GUIDANCE APPEARS
QUITE UNDERDONE ON THE RESULTING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEEMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.
TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS FOR TVF AND BJI TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT
TO GO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AFT 12-16Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.
TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS FOR TVF AND BJI TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT
TO GO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AFT 12-16Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOWSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.
AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOWSHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
722 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.
NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER
5 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
916 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY GOTTEN IN WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND. MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL GET
MEASURABLE RAIN ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE MUCH ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70. LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BY SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING TRENDS IN RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS. SO
IT APPEARS THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 20Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LAGGING THIS ACTIVITY
BY SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE IT EXITS THE REGION LATE TODAY.
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH BEYOND CURRENT VALUES
IN THE WEST WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT READINGS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES AND THEN
REBOUND BETWEEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ENDING AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. STILL A CHANCE FOR EASTERN SITES TO WARM A LITTLE
INTO MIDDAY DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES).
WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A
LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST
LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN
DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME
PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF
BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE
POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.
A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS
JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE
ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS
HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT
AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE
OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING
THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS
WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A
LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST
LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN
DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME
PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF
BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE
POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.
A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS
JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE
ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS
HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT
AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE
OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING
THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS
WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
BELIEVE NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL NOT BE MET (RESULTING IN +20
KT/-20 KT GAIN OR LOSS OF AIRSPEED) FOR VARIOUS REASONS. THERE IS
ENOUGH SUSTAINED WIND...LOCAL GUSTINESS...AT THE SURFACE TO
INDICATE SOME MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEED INCREASE IS GRADUAL ENOUGH...AND THE
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SMALL ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRUE LLWS. THUS...
ANY TURBULENCE WILL MOST LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1123 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN REASONING FROM THE 00Z FORECAST. SCT SHRA/TSRA
BEHIND A COLD FROPA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS THRU THE NIGHT. IF A
STORM MOVES OVER A TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THINGS CLEAR OUT ON
TUESDAY.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 230Z..FROM FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OK TO SC OK.
RADAR OVER SMALL CORNER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNIMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME...JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ONLY A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALL EVENING NORTHEAST OK.
LATEST WRF/HRRR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. MODESTLY REDUCED
POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THUNDER THREAT NEGLIGIBLE.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPTD OVER IN NW AR. BASED ON THIS THINKING...VCTS
WILL BE USED FOR THE ERN OK SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED
FOR THE NW AR SITES...WITH THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA
FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BREEZY AND WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK...A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN THE
CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH...AS THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST
OF COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 72 44 72 / 50 10 0 0
FSM 61 71 46 71 / 50 40 20 10
MLC 57 72 46 73 / 40 20 10 0
BVO 50 71 39 71 / 40 10 0 0
FYV 54 69 40 68 / 60 20 10 0
BYV 55 68 42 67 / 60 20 10 10
MKO 56 72 44 72 / 50 20 0 0
MIO 52 69 42 69 / 60 10 0 0
F10 56 71 47 72 / 40 10 0 0
HHW 63 71 51 73 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
834 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES ARE BEING MADE THIS EVENING TO
TWEAK POPS, AND THESE WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS ON RADAR, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE HAS FALLEN AT ANY
OBSERVING SITES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AROUND 130W
THIS EVENING, BUT AS THE PARENT LOW TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DIG,
THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE RAIN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
RAISED THEM A BIT OVER THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EDGING SLOWLY UP
TO THE COAST TOMORROW WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. -WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...SOME CLEARING IS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. THIS HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN VFR CIGS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN PARTLY
OBSCURED.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT,
BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING
THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND
DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY.
THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW
TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES
SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE
NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS
SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE
COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO
FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING
INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE
SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED
UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT HAS LOST ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND IS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES FOR NOW. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR
WHICH CONTINUES TO JUST SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AND
GENERALLY UTILIZE 40-60 PERCENT POPS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. STILL...SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITIES ARE IN
PLACE.
FOLLOWING A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS
LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY USHER IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...THE WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING THAN
24 HRS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS TN AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. HERE IN THE MID STATE...WE WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS A FEW FLURRIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. BUT...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY RUN #1 OF GFS
CONTINUITY...WILL ONLY MENTION COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FURTHERMORE...EURO IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE.
SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WITH AN APPRECIABLE NORTHERLY BREEZE AS WELL.
SO...LOOKING COLD AND BRISK ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
WARM WEATHER WE HAVE HAD.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MEX IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY IN
PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 50 67 39 63 / 40 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 46 66 37 62 / 40 05 0 0
CROSSVILLE 50 62 37 58 / 60 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 51 68 39 65 / 50 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 68 39 65 / 60 20 0 0
WAVERLY 47 67 38 63 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS
AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT
RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN
EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN
ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF
MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE
METROPLEX SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL LIKELY AT ALL METRO TERMINALS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
7 AND 13 KNOTS. WACO SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST BY 20Z. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5
WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 20 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 20 5 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 5 0 0 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5
DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5
TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 20 5 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 30 20 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
102 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT IS SHOWING RECENT SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPS AT 02Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
40S.
NOT MUCH NEEDED TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD DECK DEPARTS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. RUC RH PROGS HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CLOUD DECK AND WERE PRIMARILY
UTILIZED. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...EXPECT THE DECK TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA BEING THE LAST SECTION TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW TEMPS AS RELAXING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
AND 3-6 HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF
FROST ACCRUAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE. DO EXPECT
SHELTERED...LOW LYING AND OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SEE FROST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.
ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
STRATOCU WILL LINGER OVER A FEW TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD REGARLESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES
TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 3
TO 6 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY EXITING DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE
TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN MAINE.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...
&&
.CLIMATE...
CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.
Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.
Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.
Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Next shortwave and low pressure appears on track, although models,
specifically HRRR, is a bit more robust and faster with possible
precipitaton. Have moved up clouds and VCSH about an hour, and
introduced to COU as HRRR has precipitaton futher west. Guidance
holds in clouds until about 12z Friday, so will keep VFR clouds in
for now, althought the NAM guidance tries to bring in MVFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Generally increasing VFR clouds with a VCSH as
the clipper type system moves through Thursday. Nam guidance
brings in MRF clouds late in the period. MVFR to IFR clouds in
Canada, but will hold off for now and stick with the GFD VFR
forecast.
JPK
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy. (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
226 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAVING MOVED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN... WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT (INDICATED BY A FALL-
OFF IN DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E IN ITS WAKE) IS A BIT FURTHER
NW... STRETCHING ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH... AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90+ KT JET TO OUR
NNE... APPEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REBIRTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT... WELL MODELED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THE RAP
ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF ARW/NMM MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING RAIN JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES WITH TIMING
AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATH OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXTRAPOLATION OF OBSERVED AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
ALONG WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE GLAMP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOWS FROM 44 NW TO 56 SE... WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.
DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...
A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.
FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST
LO-MAX
RDU 50/1925
GSO 45/1925
FAY 48/1988
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. MAY GET A BIT OF A
BREAK IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT BUT SAT SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. WILL KEEP TEMP TREND IN PLACE
FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.
TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CIG/VIS VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO WORK IN AFT 09Z AS BAND OF LOWERED
CIGS MOVE SE OUT OF CANADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY SE 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN ND. BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AROUND THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Despite clear skies and light winds, fog/stratus has yet to
develop at 10Z. This puts the HRRR out to lunch. However, latest
NAM buffer soundings still hint at a couple of hours of LIFR
conditions at KMAF, and MVFR at KCNM and KINK. All other terminals
should stay VFR this morning. MVFR cigs will be possible at KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ tonight as the front moves through. Otherwise, sfc
flow will veer to the north during the next 24 hrs the front settles
into the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures today will transition to much cooler as a cold
front arrives just in time for Halloween. Rain chances also return
early next week.
Modest southerly flow has helped to increase low level moisture
across the area this morning which is leading to some low cloud
and fog development. Meanwhile, a cold front has entered the TX
Panhandle and will continue south throughout the day. Drier air
behind the front will help to erode the low clouds as the boundary
makes its way to the I-20 corridor around lunch time. Temperatures
will not warm too much across the northern Permian Basin today
with the earlier frontal passage, but the rest of the region
should see temps well into the 70s and 80s. The front could spark
an isolated shower across the lower Trans Pecos west to the Davis
Mnts tonight into Friday morning as the boundary begins to slow
down.
Temperatures behind the front will cool below normal for Halloween
with highs only making it into the 60s and low 70s. Sfc ridging will
quickly move east Friday night, thus protecting most of the region
from seeing their first freeze.
Upper flow begins to amplify over the weekend as a deep trough moves
onto the West Coast. The initial wave that rounds the base of the
trough on Saturday quickly moves into the northern Rockies. Model
solutions then begin to diverge on the evolution of the trough
thereafter. The GFS continues to be more progressive/drier while the
ECMWF is slower/wetter as it develops a cut-off low to our west. The
ECMWF has had run to run consistency as of late, but the GFS
agrees more with the Canadian and other ensembles so will trend
more toward the GFS for now. Height falls begin to affect the
region Sunday and Monday so we could see areas of light showers
develop almost anywhere. A cold front will move south and begin to
focus showers and thunderstorms along it Monday night into
Tuesday. There exists a potential for heavy rain given abnormally
high PWATS and ample lift from the upper trough and cold front. At
this time it appears the best chance for rain is Monday night and
Tuesday. Depending on what happens with the upper trough, PoPs may
need to be upped later next week.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIRMASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 70 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 72 38 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 72 39 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 73 37 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 74 40 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 74 40 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 74 41 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 76 43 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 77 42 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 80 44 65 37 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS RIGHT AROUND
31/00Z. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. AT THIS TIME WONT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAF BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AT WACO AND POINTS WEST OF THERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Clear skies, light winds, buffer soundings, and the HRRR all
develop LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys at all terminals except KHOB and
KFST for 2-3 hours just after sunrise. Buffer soundings and HRRR
differ slightly on location and timing, so this will have to be
adjusted as needed. Otherwise, sfc flow will veer to the north
during the day as a weak cold front settles into the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Shallow low level mstr will creep back into most of that TAF sites
overnight increasing the chance for MVFR VSBY/CIGS, possibly IFR.
High resolution models forecast the RH to be near 100 PCT by near 12Z
at all but CNM/FST. As such have opted to bring down VSBY to 1SM
or less at MAF/HOB/INK/PEQ. Soundings show CIGS/VSBY lifting around
15Z and this makes sense considering how shallow mstr will be.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are a little warmer today as surface winds are
southeasterly and the surface ridge has moved well to the east of
the region. An upper trough is over the eastern conus with ridging
over the southwest conus. This upper pattern has resulted in the
area being under west to northwest flow aloft with possible
shortwaves moving over the region on the backside of this upper
trough. Due to this upper lift being present, there is a very
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains area today and tomorrow afternoon but do not have
enough confidence add in pops at this time. Patchy fog is possible
tonight and early tomorrow morning across portions of the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and southward to parts of
Brewster County as winds will be light and moisture will remain
across the area.
The upper ridge will become more centered over the region on
Thursday. A secondary cold front associated with the upper trough
centered over the Great Lakes region will push into the area
Thursday evening. Lift and moisture convergence will increase
across the area as a result of this front, so there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the CWA on Friday. Temperatures will
be a cooler behind this front bringing highs into the mid to upper
60s across the Permian Basin on Friday.
Upper ridging will continue across the region on Saturday with the
previously mentioned upper trough over the east coast and another
upper trough over the western conus. Temperatures will warm
slightly on Saturday as surface winds become more southerly. The
upper trough over the western conus moves closer to the CWA on
Sunday allowing for lee surface troughing to develop across West
Texas and southeast New Mexico. This will result in a further warm
up on Sunday.
The upper trough will move closer the region on Monday and upper
lift will increase. The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement on the
position of the upper trough. The GFS is faster with the trough and
therefore pushes the rain and an associated cold front through the
area faster. It appears that the cold front will move through the
area sometime Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps the rain through Wednesday
while the GFS ends it on Tuesday so pops remain very uncertain for
these two days. Expect temperatures to be cooler for Tuesday and
Wednesday due to the cold front and increased cloud cover.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THE 30.00Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT
3 HOURS FROM THE 29.18Z RUNS. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE 900
TO 800 MB STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND THE STEEPEST 850 TO 950 MB
LAPSE RATES. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST BACK CLOSE
TO 31.00Z INSTEAD OF 30.19Z. WITH THE BEST 950 TO 850 MB MOISTURE
SLIDING SOUTH OF KRST BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED BY 31.05Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHIFT SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 09Z (FIRST AT KMCK...THEN AT KGLD) WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
PREVAIL THE CONDITIONS AND IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO ADD TEMPO
GROUP.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG MENTION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIVER ACROSS SRN STONEWALL COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 70 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 72 38 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 72 39 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 73 37 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 74 40 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 74 40 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 74 41 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 76 43 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 77 42 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 80 44 65 37 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
946 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FROM MCKINNEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO MINERAL WELLS AND INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. LEFT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND THE MOST
FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER THE WACO AND KILLEEN AREAS AND AREAS
WEST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS COMANCHE. HAVE LEFT POPS OVER
THESE AREAS AT 40 PERCENT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS HAVING A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
THINKING THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOETH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STORM POTENTIAL...WIND SHIFT.
CLOUD COVER...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISCERNIBLE BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. FLOW WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE IS
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FROM REACHING WACO. HOWEVER...
VEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MEAN SOME VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...DURING THE HANDFUL OF HOURS PRECEDING FROPA. SKIES
SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STORM POTENTIAL...
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY AMONG SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...EVEN IF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
WIND SHIFT...
SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER 10KTS. UNLESS CONVECTION
IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE EVENTUAL
VEERING TO THE NORTH WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STORM POTENTIAL...WIND SHIFT.
CLOUD COVER...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISCERNIBLE BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. FLOW WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE IS
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FROM REACHING WACO. HOWEVER...
VEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MEAN SOME VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...DURING THE HANDFUL OF HOURS PRECEDING FROPA. SKIES
SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STORM POTENTIAL...
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY AMONG SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...EVEN IF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
WIND SHIFT...
SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER 10KTS. UNLESS CONVECTION
IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE EVENTUAL
VEERING TO THE NORTH WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 70 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 72 38 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 72 39 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 73 37 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 74 40 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 74 40 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 74 41 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 76 43 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 77 42 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 80 44 65 37 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE HAS KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR OVERNIGHT...WHILE CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS HAVE BEEN SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES AND HELP TO LOWER CEILINGS. BOTH LSE
AND RST SHOULD SEE CEILINGS FALL...INTO THE MVFR RANGE...FOR A
TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS DRIER CANADIAN AIR FLOWS IN
AND CLEARS THE CLOUD OUT. IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE GREATLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN PRESSURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY.
GUSTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE IN THE TAFS IF TRENDS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE WINDY SCENARIO.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND
THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
WE ARE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE...PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN INDIANA...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AND OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...CURRENT CENTERED ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTHWEST...A RATHER
STOUT 1036 MB HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG NORTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEAD TO A QUICK RAMP UP OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
MEAN MIXING LAYER WIND SPEEDS COULD TOP 40 KT ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE LAKE...MEANING WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY REACH THIS MAGNITUDE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS
DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COULD EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND
50 KT WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING ON HALLOWEEN...THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
AS LARGE BATTERING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT APPEAR LIKELY...AND AS
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...LAKE LEVELS ARE ABOUT 2 FT
HIGHER THAN PAST YEARS...WHICH COULD MAKE THE IMPACTS OF THESE WAVES
HIGHER THEN SIMILAR WAVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STRONG WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF MY CWA. THIS
INCLUDES AREAS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARVARD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANKAKEE AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA...AS WELL AS
PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND ALSO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING...AND BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRYING OUT BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND STAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE OF A TRUE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. A COLD AIRMASS FEATURING -7 DEGREE C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A 53F (11.7C)
DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURE AT THE SOUTH BUOY. THEREFORE...DELTA T`S
SHOULD END UP VERY FAVORABLE AROUND 19 DEGREES C. IN ADDITION...DEEP
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
LIKELY TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 16,000 FT AGL. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
LIKELY TO BE MORE THAN DEEP ENOUGH THROUGH THE -10 TO -20 LAYER TO
RESULT IN GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND COULD BEGIN TO SET UP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COOK
COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL GET THIS LAKE EFFECT BANDING. SOME HAVE
HINTED IN A FARTHER WEST BAND...WHICH WOULD IMPACT MORE OF THE
CHICAGO AREA. HOWEVER...I THINK AT THIS POINT AREAS IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL BE MORE FAVORED...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY DUE
NORTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTING UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT PORTER
AND LAKE INDIANA WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT THIS
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD BE DRIVEN WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING MUCH OF JASPER AND PORTER COUNTIES AS
WELL.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH...AS
SOME WARMER AIR MOVING OFF THE LAKE SHOULD MAKE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVIER PRECIP RATES...IT IS VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT ENHANCED DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN A COLD
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WOULD HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...THOUGH EVEN AREAS ALONG THE LAKE COULD CHANGE
OVER/MIX WITH SNOW. OVERALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (POSSIBLY A FEW
INCHES IN SOME AREAS) ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
4 NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES. IF...HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW DOES NOT PAN OUT AS CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS...WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD
THEN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THEREFORE...IN SPITE OF THE
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN CHANGE OVERS TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL...WE FEEL AT THIS POINT...TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION...AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY SNOW
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO
GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CRASH IN A HURRY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT. THEREFORE...ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT
GET INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT AND COME TO AN
END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S AT BEST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NO ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WHILE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.
* CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
DETERIORATING TONIGHT AS SYSTEM/FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
WIND SPEED/GUSTS QUICKLY INCREASING. LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WIND SHIFT...LIKELY PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
QUICKLY FILTERING IN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT
THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTION EXPECTED AS WELL AS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN IN
THIS NORTH DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS ORIENTATION WILL
COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 40 KT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY/FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A TREND BACK TOWARDS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED/GUSTS...MEDIUM HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING OF FROPA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED
12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT. CHANCE OF
SHRA OR SHSN.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT.
* SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE
AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A FAVORABLE AND ANOMALOUS SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER AIDED
BY THE WARM WATERS/EXTREME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE REGULAR HIGHER END
STORM FORCE GUSTS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN THE LAKE RAPIDLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SYNC WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A RAMP UP IN NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF STORM FORCE TO 50 AND POSSIBLY EVEN 55 KT
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...AND AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
THE WAVE MAXIMUM OF OVER 20 FOOTERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND EVOLVE SOUTHWARD
REACHING THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WAVES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LAKE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ014...7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM
FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ033...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ019...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...1 AM FRIDAY TO 10
PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY
TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Two waves impacting the short term. The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region. Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature. Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip. Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF. As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.
Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.
Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Mostly VFR through the forecast period. Main issues will be the
afternoon showers that are out there currently. SPI may see a
shower early this afternoon...but the majority of the showers are
scattered, and in concert with a dry low level...will be eroding
somewhat. Main wave/front moving in overnight, bringing a second
chance for showers, though coverage is varied in the models, with
the NAM far drier with the front than the GFS. The HRRR is
starting to come in somewhere in between the two, but taking the
higher RH in the low levels and producing a swath of MVFR clouds
with the fropa. Will take that into account as well and drop the
cigs to the MVFR/VFR break point. Increasing gradient early behind
the boundary picking up the winds in the morning, well ahead of
normal timing for a mix down. Breezy 15-20kt northerly winds
ramping up by 12z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
120 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
1059 AM CDT
GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY ON TRACK WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. THE EMPHASIS ON THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE STRONG AUTUMN SYSTEM FRIDAY.
THE AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES LATE
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A THINNING IN CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN. EXPECTING VARIABILITY
IN SKY TO OCCUR THE REST OF THE DAY THAT WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE OUT
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN SOME
PLACES TO OUTPACE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE TO TWO IN EASTERN AREAS. WEAKER LESS ORGANIZED FORCING
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY RAIN LIGHT OR
EVEN JUST SPRINKLES...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH BEING SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY...THE WINDY DAY AND EVENING CONTINUES ON
TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND IMPACTS BEING NEAR THE
LAKE SHORE. THE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CONTINUING TO BE
WEIGHED AND MODEL DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE LOWEST THERMAL
PROFILES. WITH LIKELY MODEST TO TEMPORARY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
RATES GIVEN THE HIGH LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY...COULD CERTAINLY
REALIZE PRETTY LOW VISIBILITY IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE COOK COUNTY SHORE AT TIMES FRIDAY IF SNOW CAN
BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CDT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DROPPING FAST
OVERNIGHT UNDER FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERING THE
TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO METRO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING
WINDS NEAR CALM. AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WLY...BUT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN
PLACE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND A GENERAL COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE
ALOFT...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND
PUSH INTO NWRN IL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE QUICKLY PUSH SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO NWLY. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 6MB/6HR WILL BRING
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW WINDS ARND 30
MPH AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER OVER LAND...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT THE SFC BY ARND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
308 AM CDT
STRONG UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN LAKES REGION FRIDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO OUR EAST
AND STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH MOST AREAS
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE LESSER FRICTION AND STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
RESULTANT MIXING NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 50+ MPH
NEAR THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY COOK COUNTY AND NW INDIANA SHORE. COULD
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE AREAS WITH A SOLID
WIND ADVISORY EVENT LIKELY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO HOLD OFF
ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.
THE FULL FETCH STORM FORCE WINDS WILL RESULT IN 20FT+
WAVES...PARTICULARLY FOR COOK COUNTY INTO NW INDIANA GIVEN THE
350-360 WIND DIRECTION. LAKE LEVELS ARE NEARLY 2 FEET HIGHER THAN
LAST YEAR AND PREVIOUS YEARS...SO EVEN THOUGH WAVES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS SANDY A FEW YEARS AGO...THE LAKE SHORE FLOODING
IMPACT COULD BE SIMILAR. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELY COASTAL INUNDATION IMPACT
FROM THE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SYNOPTIC PRECIP THREAT
LARGELY ENDING. HOWEVER...VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SET-UP LOOKS
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH VERY HIGH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS UP TO AROUND 20KFT AND UP TO NEARLY -30C. GIVEN
THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF SUPER COOLED LIQUID IN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY. THESE
EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY WITH P-TYPE AS THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...AROUND -8 TO -10C AT 850MB WOULD SOLIDLY
SUPPORT SNOW DESPITE WARM WATER TEMPS IN THE 50S STILL. HAVE GONE
WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THINK THE FARTHER INLAND
AWAY FROM THE LAKE YOU GET THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE FOR ALL SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NW INDIANA. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDED DYNAMIC COOLING AM CONCERNED
THAT SOME PORTIONS OF NW INDIANA...ESPECIALLY A BIT INLAND FROM THE
LAKE...COULD END UP WITH A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON GRASSY SURFACES BY FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO HIT THAT TOO HARD AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY VEER
SO THAT THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD START IN PORTER
COUNTY EARLY FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST INTO LAKE COUNTY
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY INTO SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH AND LAKE EFFECT WINDS
DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS WILL
SEND WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 20S DURING TRICK OR TREATING
HOURS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH EVEN LESS FAVORABLE TRICK OR TREATING
WEATHER IN NW INDIANA UNDER THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VERY
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN
TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL NEXT WEEK RETURNING
TO WHAT WILL FEEL LIKE THE RATHER PLEASANT 50S FOLLOWING FRIDAY`S
FLIRTATION WITH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NO ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WHILE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.
* CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
DETERIORATING TONIGHT AS SYSTEM/FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
WIND SPEED/GUSTS QUICKLY INCREASING. LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WIND SHIFT...LIKELY PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
QUICKLY FILTERING IN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT
THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTION EXPECTED AS WELL AS NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN IN
THIS NORTH DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS ORIENTATION WILL
COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 40 KT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY/FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A TREND BACK TOWARDS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED/GUSTS...MEDIUM HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING OF FROPA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED
12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT. CHANCE OF
SHRA OR SHSN.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT.
* SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF HIGH END GALES TO LOW END STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LONGEST DURATION AND HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE
OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING THERE FOR FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE
NORTHWEST INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UP TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IN THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
MAY END UP WITH A MORE OFFSHORE FETCH IN THE 350-360 RANGE LESSENING
THE THREAT OF STORM FORCE WINDS A BIT. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
COULD SEE STORM FORCE GUSTS FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING BUT DURATION
LOOKS TO BE LESS AND CONFIDENCE LOWER...SO JUST HINTED AT THIS
THREAT IN THE GLF. FULL FETCH NORTH STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM KICKING WAVES UP TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 20 FT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM
EVENT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND
EVENTUALLY WAVES TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY. LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK 25-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD DEVELOP AS HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
STORM WARNING...
LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...1 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740...6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1221 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Small wave moving into the Midwest this morning bringing some
showers across Missouri and into Illinois. Some rain showers
moving into the Jacksonville area early. Have adjusted the pops
for the next few hours for some showers in west central Illinois,
but plenty of dry air in the region will probably help to keep any
widespread precip at bay. Temperatures doing well with minimal
cloud cover to the east ahead of the scattered showers. No major
updates required, but have freshened up the hourly grids as well
as the pops in the short term.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east today
and give way to a weather system approaching from the west. This low
pressure area will move east and then southeast while another low
pressure area moves across the Great Lakes region. Both of these are
associated with an upper level trough that will be moving through
the area today. These features will not have a lot of moisture to
work with, but will bring a chance of showers to the CWA today. Pops
will be only in the chance category and not expecting any
thunderstorms at this time. Light winds this morning will become
southeast, and then easterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should be around 5 to 10 mph.
MOS guidance looks ok, but MAV looks a little warm in the southeast
given the expected cloud cover and chance of pcpn. So, mid to upper
50s looks reasonable for today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
An extended period of below normal temperatures is still expected
across central and southeast Illinois into next week. The coldest
period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze likely
early Saturday and Sunday mornings. A bit too early for a Freeze
Watch being 4th and 6th periods, but will issue a special weather
statement to address the the freezing conditions that will likely
end the growing season. This will be the first hard freeze across
the forecast area and running about two weeks later than normal.
Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal with
actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and wind chill
values in the upper 20s and lower 30s late Friday afternoon into
early Friday evening with blustery north winds gusting to around
35 mph at times Friday afternoon.
The short wave that tracks across MO and sw IL by sunset, and into
the mid MS river valley by midnight tonight, and into western KY/TN
by dawn Fri, will linger chances of rain showers especially over
southeast IL. A much stronger northern stream short wave, currently
diving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great
Lakes/Midwest on Friday. Most of the moisture will be east of IL
Friday and Friday night and just have small chances of light rain
showers in far eastern IL Friday and then mixes with or changes to
light snow by Friday evening over IN. However, this system will be
accompanied by gusty north winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 40
mph and will help usher in the airmass that will provide our hard
freeze for Friday and Saturday nights with lows 25-30F both nights.
Upper level ridging will shift eastward into IL late in the weekend
into early next week with temperatures modifying Mon-Wed with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The ridge will shift east of IL later
Monday into Tue while strong upper level low/trof digs into the
southern Rockies. This puts IL in an unsettled upper level sw flow
and increasing chances of showers Mon-Tue night as a frontal system
sets up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and Tue south of
I-72. Best rain chances will shift se into the Ohio river valley Wed
and lingered 20-30% chances of showers over southeast IL. Drier
weather expected Wed night and Thu with highs still in the 50s on
Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Mostly VFR through the forecast period. Main issues will be the
afternoon showers that are out there currently. SPI may see a
shower early this afternoon...but the majority of the showers are
scattered, and in concert with a dry low level...will be eroding
somewhat. Main wave/front moving in overnight, bringing a second
chance for showers, though coverage is varied in the models, with
the NAM far drier with the front than the GFS. The HRRR is
starting to come in somewhere in between the two, but taking the
higher RH in the low levels and producing a swath of MVFR clouds
with the fropa. Will take that into account as well and drop the
cigs to the MVFR/VFR break point. Increasing gradient early behind
the boundary picking up the winds in the morning, well ahead of
normal timing for a mix down. Breezy 15-20kt northerly winds
ramping up by 12z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NW ONTARIO(N OF KINL) DIVING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SHRTWV SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NRN MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF ONTARIO WHERE
VISIBILIITES HAD DROPPED AOB 1SM. A WEAK SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI ALSO WAS BRINGING SOME SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH NRN UPPER
MI. STRONG NRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NRN MN BETWEEN 1015MB LOW
PRES OVER CNTRL UPPE R MI AND A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SASK INTO WRN
MANITOBA. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE INTO NW MN
WITH THE PRES RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY 06Z AND
TO -12C BY 12Z (LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR 7C) AND STRONG CYCLONIC NRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW...MAINLY BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES INTO THE
10/1-15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
RANGE...THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE WARMER GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES THAT WERE STILL
NEAR 40F. LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THE STRONG UPSLOPE
FLOW IN WEST AND N CNTRL UPPER WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WEST AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 6
INCHES N CNTRL. A LATER CHANGEVER TO SNOW AND GREATER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORE TO AN INCH OR
TWO. OVER THE SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-09Z WITH A
FST 5 MB 3 HOUR PRES RISE AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 5K FT. IN ADDITION MORE ACYC
FLOW MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE SFC RIDGE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP LES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON
HOW QUICKLY LINGERING LK EFFECT SNOW WL DIMINISH ON FRI NGT AND THEN
ON POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANYING NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO SHIFT E
THRU SRN CANADA. EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI NGT TO RISE TO
AOA NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SW FLOW/UPR RDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. BUT COLDER AIR WL RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE SHRTWV HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF IN SE CANADA.
FRI NGT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE
OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z
SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN BELTS ACRS
THE NCENTRAL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS WL DIMINISH AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND THE SUB INVRN LVL MSTR
WARMS ABV -10C/THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU
MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER
THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING
TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
FCST TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR W.
SAT THRU SUN...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX ON SAT WITH SFC RDG AXIS/DRY
AIRMASS SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO OVER THE SAULT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS DRIFTING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS MAY MOVE INTO
THE W IN THE AFTN...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND RETURN SLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI THAT IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TOWARD 2C BY
00Z SUN OVER THE W SHOULD ALLOW SFC MAX TEMPS THERE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOWLY
DEPARTING RDG AXIS/COME HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL ON
SAT NGT. THE LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20 WL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HI/FLATTER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE HIER TEMPS AOA 30. UNDER SOME HI
CLDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING
TO H875-9. BUT GUSTY S WINDS UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING HI/FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER.
SUN NGT...STEADY SSW WIND BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LK
WINNIPEG IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WL ADVECT
HIER PWAT UP TO ARND 0.75 INCH /ABOUT 150 PCT OF NORMAL/. BUT
ABSENCE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV
SO FAR TO THE NW AND RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE FCST SDNGS WARRANTS
GOING DRY FCST. WINDS/INCRSG PWAT WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP.
MON THRU TUE NGT...AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON
MON SHIFTS E INTO NW ONTARIO ON TUE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL SHIFT
THRU THE UPR LKS...CROSSING THE CWA ON MON NGT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N WL TAKE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N OF UPR MI AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEPER MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO THE S...12HR
H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M OVER UPR MI JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHC POPS. THE
PTYPE WL BE RA INTO AT LEAST LATE TUE. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THEN SHOW CYC WNW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE LO IN
ONTARIO DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -5 TO -7C TUE NGT IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIER RH THRU H7...SO SOME SN MAY MIX WITH THE RA AS THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LK EFFECT MODE WITHIN THE CYC FLOW.
EXTENDED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING NEAR THE UPR LKS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF RA/SN AND SOME LK EFFECT
SN IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS AS FAR AS THE
TRACK/ INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LARGE TO DEVIATE FM A
CONSENSUS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY OFF
THE LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT VSBYS
TO DROP TO IFR. THE LOWEST VSBY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AT SAW. LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING AT LEAST AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
EXPECT N TO NW GALES TO 35-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES
AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN ACCOMPANYING LO PRES OVER
LOWER MI AND HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER N WINDS TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE
HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. ONCE THE HI
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN TO THE E OF LO
PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR S WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON. AS THE LO SHIFTS ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ITS
WAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1
PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>006-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ004>006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ243>248-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDES KDIK AND POSSIBLY
KISN...WHERE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS BUILD DOWN. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE
FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO ERODE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FROM
PRECIPITATION AT BOTH METROPLEX AND WACO TERMINALS.
CONCERNING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIXING AND THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE WSW. HAVE RETAINED
VCSH BASED ON SLIGHTLY AGITATED CU FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
TRENDS IN HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT. DATA FROM THE MORNING WEATHER
BALLOON...RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...AND IN-HOUSE THUNDERSTORM
PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY. MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS...COMPLEMENTS OF THE TRUE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SHOULD ARRIVE
ACROSS THE MEXTROPLEX AROUND THE 23-00 UTC TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...THINK THAT WE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO MIX
OVERNIGHT....BUT THE STIFF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS. STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTER
SUNRISE AND MIXING COMMENCES. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDOWN FRIDAY.
CONCERNING THE WACO TAF SITE...SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND A SUBTLE HIGH OVER THE PINEY WOODS SHOULD HELP TO BACK
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH. A LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS TRIES
TO BUILD...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDER WILL BE WEST OF THE WACO TAF SITE. 5-10 KNOT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AROUND 02-03 UTC. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY WHEN DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR.
15-BAIN/30
&&
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FROM MCKINNEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO MINERAL WELLS AND INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. LEFT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND THE MOST
FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER THE WACO AND KILLEEN AREAS AND AREAS
WEST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS COMANCHE. HAVE LEFT POPS OVER
THESE AREAS AT 40 PERCENT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS HAVING A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
THINKING THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOETH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.
05/
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 53 66 40 62 / 30 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 79 53 70 40 64 / 5 30 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 73 46 63 34 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 78 48 65 36 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 76 50 65 34 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 79 55 67 40 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 77 52 67 38 62 / 10 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 77 54 69 40 62 / 5 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 78 54 71 41 64 / 5 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 80 48 67 36 63 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1257 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY N-NE WINDS WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG MENTION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIVER ACROSS SRN STONEWALL COUNTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.
HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.
BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 34 61 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 60 33 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 60 34 63 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 37 62 36 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 40 63 36 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 40 63 38 66 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 41 63 38 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 43 63 34 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 42 63 37 64 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 44 65 37 65 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30.21Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20 KT
RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT...BUT EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS AFTER 31.05Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS